The Josh Innes Show - Super Bowl Prediction and Props

Episode Date: February 7, 2025

I cannot allow myself to believe the Eagles are going to win. I want them to win. I despise the Chiefs. Can even the most diehard Eagles fan tell me they truly believe they'll win? I've got a few Super Bowl props for you. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The following was recorded from inside an ice plunge. Ah! Woo! Okay. All right. When a Coors Light is cold enough, the mountains on the can turn blue. So the next time you want a cold lager, cold filter, cold package Coors Light, just wait until those glorious mountains on the can turn blue.

It's easy to say that fast when you're freezing gold. Well, here we are. We are just a couple days away from the Super Bowl, a game that will be won by the Kansas City Chiefs because it has been determined, it has been ordained, it is official, the Chiefs are going to win. I don't want them to win. I would love nothing more than to see the Chiefs lose, and hopefully I'm wrong. Maybe the NFL can prove itself to be a

legitimate operation if the Philadelphia Eagles could win this Super Bowl. But I cannot allow myself to sit here on this Friday and say that I believe the Eagles are going to win. Because even though on paper they're the better team, I mean, the better quarterback is over in Kansas City. Outside of that, better running back is in Philadelphia. You could argue the overall better weapons at wide receiver, probably overall for what they do, you'd argue for Kansas City in that. But the best receiver in the game, probably on the other side in A.J. Brown. Probably. Offensive line, you've got a great offensive line in Philadelphia. Defense, the Eagles defense is better, might be the best in

the NFL. But all that said, tight end, of course, I would give Kelsey the advantage at tight end, but Goddard and what he does for the Eagles is great too. And Kelsey has been shown to get shut down sometimes. But even with all that, even with the fact that I believe the Eagles are the better team, better coaches in Kansas City, although give Sirianni credit, you can shit on the guy all you want, you can say he's a dope, but Nick Sirianni righted the ship, figured shit out,

and this thing could have gone off the rails very easily a month and a half in and it didn't. So if you want to question how good of a coach he is, that's you want to say he's getting lucky fine you want to say he's getting carried by Saquon fine as I say on the McAfee show that he's big dumb dipshit or whatever you want to believe anything about that fine does not matter the reality is he's the coach the reality is he has won 70% of his games the reality is things looked really fucking bleak and bad about three and a half months ago, four months ago.

And what he's been able to do is right the ship. And part of being a head coach, particularly in the professional level, is making sure shit doesn't go off the rails because it can. And as I've said before, I think that we're going to look back in 10 years, there could be a documentary done about this year's Eagles team because there's been some drama. And I bet there's been some behind the scenes shit I bet dude was really close to getting run out of town I mean the fans wanted him out of town certainly maybe ownership was too I don't know but they figured this shit out so as much as I dislike Sirianni as much as I think he's a doofus

as much as I think his heart on his big hard-on act is lame he's kind of scaled back on that he's kind of leveled out a little bit. And all he's doing is winning games. And here he is in his second Super Bowl in three years. And if he wins this Super Bowl, he is the most successful coach the Philadelphia Eagles have ever had. 70% of his games, the dude has won, and a Super Bowl would be huge. All that said, that will not happen.

And it will not happen because the league will not let it happen at least in the minds of a lot of people now do i believe the nfl is rigged we've had this discussion do i believe that the nfl is rigged no do i believe that the officials get together and have big conferences with 180 of these officials and commissioner and all this and conspire to determine how games are going to turn out. No. But I do believe that Patrick Mahomes in big spots will get the calls. He works these refs. He knows how to work these refs. They give him the calls. I cannot allow myself to take the Eagles to win, even though the value is on the Eagles, even though I think it's like plus 110 or plus 115,

something like that for the Eagles money line. I'd like to take the Eagles because I want the Eagles to win. I don't want Kansas City to win again. I don't want to hear about Kansas City's ill-begotten three-peat. I don't want to see Travis Kelsey, and I don't want to see Pat Mahomes, and I don't want to see Andy Reid. I'm tired of them. I want to see something different. I'd also like to see Nick Sirianni win a Super Bowl just to see the McDougal squirm because four months ago they wanted the guy run out of town and hung up on a stake, and now here he is winning a Super Bowl. Only the second coach in franchise history to win a Super Bowl. That would be something. It would be funny. Also, if they win the Super Bowl, we'll eradicate a large percentage of the McDougal population because dipshits are going to fall off

a pole, set themselves on fire, kick the wrong fucking horse and get punched in the face. All sorts of shit's going to go down. So the fun is there. You know what's going to happen in Kansas City if the Chiefs win another Super Bowl? Nothing fun. It's a Midwestern dweeb fest. You know what's going to happen if the Eagles win the Super Bowl? They'll burn the fucking place down and set themselves on fire. Hell, if they lose the Super Bowl, they'll set the place on fire. The fun is endless with the Eagles people. The parade will have 5 million people in downtown Philadelphia. You won't be able to move. Sorry, Center City, Philadelphia.

You will not be able to move. I want all that. That's what I'm here for. Somehow Jason Kelsey is going to show up at the parade, even though he doesn't play, because Jason Kelsey needs all of the attention in the world. All of these things will happen. But it's not going to happen. Let's do this. Let's play a couple commercials. We'll look at some of the prop bets that I do like in the world. All of these things will happen, but it's not going to happen.

Let's do this. Let's play a couple commercials. We'll look at some of the prop bets that I do like in this one, and we will continue. All right, if you're ready to win some real cash during the basketball playoffs, you've got to check out Pick 6 from DraftKings. When it comes to basketball payouts, DraftKings Pick 6 posterizes the competition, including prize picks.

It's a very simple concept. Hit all your picks and score higher minimum payouts on Pick 6, plus even more cash if you outscore the competition. Pick 6 is available in most states, including Missouri, California, Texas, Georgia, and more, and I absolutely love it. Look, every night we're going to be having playoff basketball. Every night. So when you're sitting around and you might not have interest in a particular game,

let's say you're a fan of a particular team, they're not playing that night, here's how you make it a little bit more fun for the other games. Build a little lineup there with pick six. It's really great. Me and my wife do it all the time. So make sure you do it. And new players get 50 in pick six credits instantly on just a $5 entry. Download the DraftKings pick six app now and use code Ennis. That's my name. I N N E S for new customers to play $5, get 50 in pick six credits, better payouts, bigger wins, only with Pick 6 from

DraftKings. The crown is yours. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Help is available for problem gambling. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org in Connecticut. Must be 18 plus. Age and eligibility restrictions vary by jurisdiction pick six not available everywhere including new york and ontario void where prohibited one per new customer bonus awarded is non-withdrawable pick six credits that expire in 14 days limited time offer see terms at pick six dot draft kings dot com slash promos yeah so while i don't believe the league is rigged, I do believe that Patrick Mahomes gets the calls.

Like, you can't just ignore that two years ago, Patrick Mahomes was gifted an egregious call on the holding. And basically, he called the holding to the refs and goes, hey, look, that was a hold. And they're like, you know what? I think you're right, Pat Flagg. Like, no, I just, I don't believe're like, you know what? I think you're right. Pat, flag. Like, no. I just don't believe it.

Now, somebody, like I tweeted about this, and these Kansas City Chiefs fans are like, hey, well, if you're so confident that it's rigged, why don't you bet your life savings? Like, first of all, that's stupid logic. Second of all, my life savings ain't fucking much. Third of all, two weeks ago, I bet on the Chiefs because I was so confident they'd win

because bad calls would go against the Bills. And sure as shit, bad calls went against the Bills, and the Chiefs won, and I was right. And while I do believe they're going to get the calls, I'm not going to fuck around with it this time. I'm just going to play a lot of prop bets and enjoy myself and hope for the best. But at the end of it, something is going to happen in this game. Something is going to happen that we're going to look back on and go, Pat got another call.

The Chiefs got another call. Wow, a magical defensive holding call. Wow, Saquon busts a huge run, but oh, there was a chop block. There was a phantom holding call on this one. Something is going to happen. That's why I refuse to bet the money line in this game. I can't do it. But looking at some of the other stuff,

by the way, speaking of the bills, how pretty is Josh Allen's lady? I mean, obviously, I know who she is. I've seen Pitch Perfect and should have heard her stuff. What's the one Haley Steinfeld song that's good? What was that damn song? Damn. I can hear it. It'll come to me. It'll come to me like while I'm in the middle of talking about something else, but it's actually a pretty good little pop song, but she's like, she's gorgeous. Like you look at her and you're like, wow, she's super pretty. She's like glamorous, but like she's glamorous, but like girl next door glamorous. And she seems like she'd be super nice. And then you compare that to Taylor, and it's like, my man, Taylor is big and gangly and gawky and giraffe-like. And as she gets older, she looks more like a McDougal.

She's not ugly or anything, but Hailee Steinfeld is super, just a gorgeous girl like good for him good for you josh good for you pal all right let's take a look at some of these uh some of the prop bets for the super bowl here now there's also some of the wacky ones but let's take a look first at receiving because you know like well let's look at passing pat over 250 and a half no let's go to receiving all right i'm gonna go with travis kelsey over 60 and a half because why not i do think aj has a decent day because he's playing for the kid that uh that uh you know got hurt with the plane crash thing so maybe you know like babe ruth hitting two home runs for the kid. Maybe AJ will have a big day. Xavier Worthy over feels good to me too at 54.5. I like Goddard's over.

I think that's going to be one of the main targets when they do have to throw. That's been proven to kind of be the way it works. And I believe the Chiefs give up the most receiving yards to tight ends over the course of the regular season. Tight ends have put up big numbers against the Chiefs. I also like some of these smaller ones. Like, I don't know, man. DeAndre Hopkins in a Super Bowl, finally getting there. His years as being an elite receiver are over, obviously, but his number is 11 and a half. And it's like,

do we believe that DeAndre can get one big catch in this game? Can DeAndre Hopkins get one big catch? Not even a big catch, a first down catch, a 12-yard catch. Can he get two six-yard catches? I believe that. Now, I played him in the AFC Championship game. It didn't work out. He hadn't done much. I don't know, man. When I see an elite, like a dude who has spent time being elite, not just very good, at one point was one of the GOATs, one of the great receivers in the league. Even with shitty quarterback play around him was one of the goats, one of the elites. Also, it's hard to believe how long he's been in the league. He's already been here, what, 12 years?

Because he came in in 13, right? His rookie year, I want to say, is when I was still in Houston the first time. Holy shit, DeAndre's old. But DeAndre for 12 yards feels possible. Noah Gray for 12 yards feels possible. I love those small numbers. Maybe Juju at 16 and a half feels possible. Noah Gray for 12 yards feels possible. I love those small numbers. Maybe Juju at 16 and a half feels good. There's a lot of, I like those low totals, man. Those, those make my dingle tingle a little bit. I like that one. Rushing wise, I would consider Mahomes

rushing yards at 28 and a half. And the post season tends to be where Mahomes scrambles a little bit more. Like you feel like you're going to get yards obviously from Saquon 109 is a low total for him and if he busts one big one and then averages two the rest of the way then you know maybe so and I think a big one could be in his future but this could be a situation where they truly do just sell the fuck out early to try to stop Saquon and they force Jalen to make throws and I think that's when it when it's going to come down to a lot of crossing stuff from Goddard you're going to get Goddard from here Goddard I like a lot maybe I'm tripping on this one maybe Goddard disappears but I could see a situation where Goddard gets four or five catches Goddard somewhere around 50 yards and

you're like oh that worked out pretty good for me so running wise I try to stay away from running props a lot of the time. Anyway, Xavier Worthy, five and a half. I like he's going to get at least one touch. It's just going to be a matter of whether or not the Eagles can stop it. He might even get two. I think Worthy said, how many, let me take a look really quick at Xavier Worthy. I know that I hit with him last week on his rushing yards. I think it was over two and a half. I think he had nine. Now the risk you run with Xavier Worthy rushing is if they solve the play. This happened to me, I want to say, in the divisional round against the Texans, maybe. I had him for his rushing yards and first carry of the game, he lost seven.

That's the risk you run. Let's take a look at Xavier Worthy. Had 16 yards. Against the Texans, it was minus eight. Denver, he didn't attempt one, but Pittsburgh was two carries for 10 yards. Houston, the first time, three carries for 10 yards. So you've got a shot with him if he busts one. And a lot of times, he's getting multiple carries. Let's see. Three for 10 against the Texans, against Cleveland. It was three for 30, one for five, one for five, one for seven.

I mean, it's a risk, but I like those low numbers like that. So Xavier worthy rushing yards at five and a half is a fun one. Mahomes is a decent one in there as well. Both of their running back. Let me look at Kareem Hunt's total is low at 43 and a half but I just don't see the Eagles in a situation where they're going to give up a lot of rushing yards let's see here see what the running game has been doing for the Chiefs I mean Pacheco like I like his low total in the 20s but Pacheco ever since Kareem Hunt's been back has like really been kind of out of sight out of mind but Kareem every game's going to give you a little. Against Buffalo, he had 64. Against the Texans, had 44. 55 against the Texans the first time, 45 against Cleveland. So he's going to be the guy when they run the ball who's going

to get it. And if he could pop one or two, you can find yourself in a spot where 43 and a half is a pretty good number there. I also like my first half or first quarter plays to the first quarter rushing looks or receiving looks like here. Travis Kelsey, 10 and a half receiving yards isn't bad in the first quarter. I think they're going to get him going early. Maybe DeAndre just gets his out of the way. Like you look at some of these and they're so valuable that you're like, holy shit. If DeAndre Hopkins makes one catch for over a yard or over half a yard, it's plus 265. So like, how do you not at least throw into some low-end parlay with some of these guys?

Like if you have FanDuel, like, cause you can build same game parlays with these. So let's say you took DeAndre Hopkins over half a yard in the first quarter and you took Dallas Goddard, his is seven and a half, or you took Juju Smith-Schuster to have a catch. Again, these are unlikely. But Juju Smith-Schuster, over half a yard is plus 205.

If you took DeAndre Hopkins and Juju Smith-Schuster to have over half a yard each in the first quarter, that's plus 819. 100 bucks wins 800 bucks. Again, probably not going to happen, but maybe. What about Noah Gray? Is he available in the first quarter? I don't think he's got first quarter receiving yards at this point, but still, that's something that's worth a shot. I would also consider Patrick Mahomes 15 passing yards in each quarter. I don't trust the Eagles on that front. There'd be more value if you could do that, but I don't trust them. Let's see what the passing specials are.

For Mahomes to throw for 25 in each quarter, it's minus 125, so I'll probably play that. Hurts and Mahomes to combine for 500 is plus 135. Probably wouldn't do it. Now, if you want to get risky, actually, you know, I might run the risk of Hurts and Mahomes 15 passing yards each in each quarter because it's minus 105, so it's close to even money, so I'd consider that. I might get Jilly in here in a little bit.

We can also look at some more of these. I'll get Jilly to look at these, and maybe we'll do a bonus Prop Till You Drop episode of this too. But what is the current money line in this game? Is it still plus 110? Oh, actually, no. It's minus 116, the eagles are minus 102 they're plus one plus one and a half and 102 hmm still not doing it though i don't trust it i don't believe like somehow something is going to go mahomes way late like i can't get myself to take

the eagles i want to because i want them to win but i can't get myself to take the Eagles. I want to because I want them to win, but I can't get myself to do it. So we shall see. But anyway, maybe Jilly and I will do one of these. We might drink some wine tonight. And then Jilly likes to pod when we drink wine. She gets frisky when we drink the wines and the beers, and she likes to pod. So we'll see.