The Josh Innes Show - Super Computer Picks Super Bowl Champ

Episode Date: August 13, 2025

I don't know why I find myself so intrigued by stories like this... A super computer has picked the 2026 Super Bowl Champion.. The top team may be a surprise.. But, I'm really tickled by the worst team. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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This getting up at 4 o'clock in the morning sure is wacky, kids. It really is. But as I'm getting older yesterday or two days ago now was my birthday, and I'm 39, getting up at 4 o'clock isn't bothering me all that much. I started at 425, and my plan was. actually to start getting up even later. So I was getting up at 425, and I'm like, well, once I get settled in, I'll get up at 5. And then before you know, it'll be rolling in at 6.15 like I was in Nashville.

And I'm not going to do that because the podcast is extremely important to me financially and in terms of just keeping the interaction going with a long-form conversation with you guys. So if it means I have to get up at 4 o'clock in the morning to start knocking these things out to make sure they're up for you guys to consume, then by God I'm going to do it because that's how I roll. And that's the, hey, you're my guys. I love you. And I want you guys to know that. Thank you.

Your beautiful people and adorable. That said, so I have this story about opta analysts. They have a projection, some sort of like supercomputer that projects the odds of each team to win the Super Bowl and the National Football League. Let's talk about this, because some of these are almost preposterous, like the odds. Again, that's to win the Super Bowl. That's not to win eight games. That's not to make the playoffs. This is to win the Super Bowl.

So let's do that after these words. So here's what we got. Opta analyst projection model. Who has the best odds to win the Super Bowl of all the teams in the NFL, percentage-wise, on a scale of, I guess this would be 100%. So you take all these teams, I'm not going to do the math on this, but I'm going to guess that it adds up to 100%, possibly, maybe possibly, maybe possibly it might add up to 100%. That might make sense. Does that make sense?

The number one, most likely team percentage-wise, according to this supercomputer, it's like that supercomputer in Willy Wonka, when the guy built the computer just to tell you what the odds are of winning, getting a golden ticket and winning the lifetime supply of chocolate. And then it's like it spits out a little message that says why would a computer or what would a computer do with a lifetime supply of chocolate and the guy gets all pissed off and he's like, I'm telling him right now what he would do with a lifetime supply of chocolate. Maybe it's a computer like that. I don't know. I don't know these things. But the number one team with the best odds to win the Super Bowl.

And the thing about this for a second, because you know who won it last year. You know who actually, let me do something really quick too. I'm going to look this up because I want to know the details. I have a story in front of me, but I also want to see like the actual makeup or like what this computer takes into consideration when it does this. Let me see here. Okay, supercomputer. All right. So it's a supercomputer.

Let's see. Who is predicting this? Okay. Sports AI companies have ramped up efforts to help betters fantasy football players and other fans with the choices they make. Stats perform is one such company with various prediction models for different sports and leagues from the NFL to MLB and the English Premier League. According to their opt-analyst NFL model, so that's what we're dealing with here, okay? How strong is this computer's prediction? See, that's the kind of stuff I want to know.

It's one thing to just throw out numbers and say, hey, a computer told me this. What data is going into this computer for me to consume? First off, I'll tell you which team has the best odds. And at least percentage-wise, the team that has the best chance of winning the Super Bowl is the Buffalo Bills at 13.4%. That's why I know this computer's full of shit, because computers can do everything for you. AI can do everything for you. The cars can drive themselves. Pretty soon, doctors won't even be necessary.

Computers can do it all. But we all need the human touch, as Mr. Rick Springfield once said. And when I think about the human touch, use your eye. eyes and use past performance as an example, who would go into a playoff in the AFC and believe until it happens that Josh Allen is going to go to the Super Bowl over Patrick Mahomes? When it happens, we'll believe it. That's something that you have to earn.

You have to earn that by play on the field. Everybody likes to say that Josh Allen, a lot of people, like I saw Bill Simmons the other day, say that Josh Allen is the best quarterback in the NFL. He very well may be. There were a lot of years that you could argue that John has. Elway was the best quarterback in the NFL. There are a lot of guys that have been the best quarterback in the NFL who weren't winning championships when they won them. That's very fair to say.

You can say that you think Josh Allen is better than Pat Mahomes. Maybe you'd be right. But Pat Mahomes until proven otherwise, Pat Mahomes is the guy that continues to win the Super Bowls and go to the Super Bowls. And Josh Allen continues to be the guy that stands there looking on as the Chiefs and other team celebrate. So until he gets there, I don't care what your computer tells me. Your computer tells me that the odds are best for the Buffalo Bills at 13.4%. I don't buy it. Now, how did this come about?

So this is the data that I want. The question is, how did the supercomputer pick the bills? Stats perform said their opt-analyst model uses a formula that includes the starting quarterback, Alan being one of the best, and then factors in expected yards and passing situations, among other statistics. The computer then simulates the entire season's schedule for each team. Every bit of new data added to the mix can change the outcome. The supercomputer gave last year, okay, this is all you need to know. The supercomputer gave the 49ers a 24% chance of winning it all last year.

Now, they dealt with a lot of injuries, which is part of the human element of that that is not factored into computers. That's why we used to rip on Darry all the time, because Darry seemed to be of the belief that all that matters was the data that was being spit into a computer and spit out of a computer and like the human element didn't matter. Like, oh, James Hardin is this amazing player statistically. And statistically, he is.

But on a human level, James Harden was lazy defensively and James Harden would rather get a blow job at a strip club than win a title. But those factors weren't taken into your data when you would look in your little computer and it would spit out all this information. People who love computers tend to really ignore the human element.

The human element is, I don't know why it keeps happening this way, but somehow Patrick Mahomes continues to win and Josh Allen continues to not win in the playoffs, no matter how well he plays. Now, last year, the Eagles won the Super Bowl, and they were not in the supercomputer's top five when the season began. Again, this is all pretty much bullshit. It's just there to talk about. So the bills have the best chance of winning, according to this supercomputer.

That's to win the Super Bowl, 13.4%. The Chiefs are number two. at 9.6%. The Eagles are number three at 8.7. Here's where you fucking lose me. You lose me a million percent here. The Jaguars at 8.1%. The Jaguars.

Again, it's one of those situations where maybe you could look at them on paper and say, well, what about Trevor Lawrence? Well, Trevor Lawrence tends to get hurt a lot and they underperform. You want me to believe, like, look, we can talk about science. Trust the science. Well, I'm not going to trust the science here, because sometimes the science can be wrong. Only God can't be wrong, Adrian.

And you've got the Jaguars at 8.1% on this supercomputer to win the Super Bowl. Fuck off. The Packers at 7.4%. To me, the Packers are one of the most fascinating teams because I feel like Jordan Love gets tons and tons of love. He gets a lot of love from me. Every time I watch the guy play, I'm like, I think this guy's one of the best in the league. Yet he never stays healthy and they never really win. But he's kind of that guy that gets a lot of, I would argue,

you undo love or unjust love from a lot of people and a lot of analysts because he didn't win anything, yet we all just assume he's really good. The Ravens at 5.7%. The Ravens fall into the same category as the Bills. What's the difference between the Ravens and the Bills? Well, Josh Allen's a better quarterback than Lamar. Cool. Have either one of them been to the Super Bowl?

Have either one of them gone out and beaten Patrick Mahomes when it matters? Patrick Mahomes always ends up there and those two guys end up being the ones that have the great regular seasons and then... Now, Lamar tends to play worse in the playoffs, obviously, than Josh Allen. A lot of times when Allen's losing, it's not totally Allen's fault. The defense lets down something dumb happens. Pat Mahomes does Pat Mahomes stuff. That all factors into it.

The Bucks at 5.2. The Lions at 4.5%. The Lions could be primed to really drop. I'm sitting here in Detroit right now, and everything's gone their way the last couple of years, and it felt like last year had to be the year. and then they go out and get their asses kicked in the playoffs because their defense was decimated by injuries. And I know that if any team loses their starting quarterback, they're done. That's why I hate starting quarterback arguments.

Or like, you know, who's a backup? Who's our backup? If Jared Goff gets hurt, they may not win any games. So keeping him upright is the most important thing they could possibly do. They've lost both their coordinators. They could be a mess. But that's at 4.5%. Commanders at 4.4.

Where do the Texans fall in here? Texans are at 1.7%. That said, I don't believe they can win the Super Bowl. Generally speaking, if you're a team that's got the dude and you're a team that's got a quarterback, you feel good about it. But, again, just off the top of my head right now, I feel a bad season for the Texans. And maybe not bad in the four-win type of bad, like not fall off a cliff bad. I don't know if I'm the only one.

And maybe it's because they're kind of out of side out of mind. I feel like the Texans are like in that eight-win type range, eight or nine win, which isn't bad, but I'm not feeling it. And maybe things will change because last year we were super hype going into the season and it was kind of a dud, just didn't feel as good as we thought it was going to be. This season, I'm kind of indifferent and just kind of hanging out in the middle. 1.7%. The Colts have a better percentage chance, according to this supercomputer. The Bengals have a better chance. Listen, if Joe Burroughs healthy and their defense can do anything, the Bengals have are a great team.

And as far as betting goes, because they're showing on the site some of the odds to win the Super Bowl based on these percentages. Like the bucks are plus $2,800 to win the Super Bowl, and they're like the sixth or seventh odds on here. If I'm looking at any of them that have value, the correct answer is the Bengals, because they got Joe Burrow. And if Burrow is healthy and they play any defense at all, that team wins 10 games, 11 games they're in the dance. And Joe Burrow and the dance has a chance against anybody. Let's see here. There is one team that, according to this supercomputer, one team that has a 0.0% chance of winning the Super Bowl. One team with a 0.0% chance of winning.

Who is that team that has a 0.0% chance of winning? Is it the Tennessee Titans? No, they're at 0.2. Is it the Raiders? No, they're at 0.1. Is it the football giants? No, they're at 0.3. The team is the New Orleans Saints, according to this computer.

0.0 for the Saints. I think that's too high. All right, anyway, more to come, friends.