The Josh Innes Show - The AFC Playoff Picture

Episode Date: November 20, 2025

The Texans play the Bills tonight. It's a must win for the Texans. They probably won't win. That said, does anyone have any real belief in the teams atop the AFC? Do we all agree that if the Bills, Chiefs and Ravens get in, they'll end up beating any of the current Top 4 teams? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All right, so Texans and Bills tonight, that kicks off this week football. And it's going to be another shitty primetime game, probably. Although, you start to look at the Texans, and I get that they haven't beaten anybody of substance in this stretch. And I get that the hurts, or not hurts, but C.J. Stroud isn't playing because this guy's brain must be made of oatmeal. Like, the guy gets a concussion. He's out for a month. This must be a very severe concussion. But tonight you get more Davis Mills. It's the neck, baby.

What's crazy is the Texans are obviously not going to win the division. It's damn near impossible for them to win the division right now. But the Texans are a fascinating team in that their defense, in terms of just points allowed, is arguably the best in the NFL. I don't even know that arguably is the case. I think they are. Is there a team in the NFL that's given up fewer points than the Texans? The correct answer is no. So their point differential is fantastic for a team that doesn't score a ton of points.

They're plus 57, but they've only scored 220 points this year. So you compare that to some of the other teams. By the way, it's not that absurdly low, by the way. I mean, it's low, but you know, you look at the Patriots who scored 292. I mean, that's a 72 point differential. That's a big deal. And some teams have. But it's pretty remarkable, and I've been ripping on the Texans because the season's been over since it started.

They started out 0.13. It's virtually impossible for them to make the postseason. But the fact they've gotten back to five and five, and they've won the games they've had to win, and they've had to do it without their starting quarterback whose brain is made of milk. So, like, there's something. Let's play a couple commercials and continue. So it's certainly fascinating, right? Like, it's interesting that let's take a look at the playoff picture right now.

Again, it would take a gigantic miracle for the Texans to get in. but they're only in the eighth spot right like you look at it you're like you know the chiefs losing obviously help them out do I believe the chiefs are going to finish better or the Texans are going to finish better than the chiefs or the Ravens no they may not finish better than the dolphins their schedule gets tougher

but they also have to play these guys they also you know they've played Jacksonville they've beaten Jacksonville so it's um it's it impossible a couple of weeks ago I would have told it's impossible and I still think it's virtually impossible especially I mean look you want to make or break it make or break it bills Colts chiefs Colts and Chiefs on the road chiefs in prime time you should have your quarterback back by then I would assume unless they've just cut his head off

which I don't know like here's where the this is what's happened if you look at what the Texans have been able to do the last four weeks from this little stretch where they've gone three and one and got back to 500 you can't ignore the teams you've played the Jaguars aren't very good. You rallied to beat them. The Titans are dreadful. You barely beat them. The 49ers are fine. That's a nice win. You beat the 49ers. They're fine. You lost to the Broncos. Although it was close, you lost to the Broncos. That's the best team you played out of those four. You lost to that team. You got beaten up pretty good by the Seahawks before that. So you beat the Ravens when they were junk, all that. But you start to look at

these next three weeks. You've got teams. Look at the cheap. Well, you've got one, right? Because the bills, well, I don't know. The bills are now not really a division winning team right now. They're more of a team that's fighting for a wildcard. So in theory, you're chasing the bills. You win tonight somehow. You pull off a, I wouldn't call it a miracle. It's really not a miracle.

Because if you think about it, I think they're only like a five and a half point dog. What does that say about the bills? What does it say about the bills that the bills with Josh Allen, God of quarterback play at home? Sorry, that's in Houston, I should say. at home the Texans are What does it say about Josh Allen That's a five and a half point spread What a sad world it is for Buffalo

I don't think Buffalo is going to do shit in the playoffs Maybe I'm wrong Again you have to look at what else there is in the AFC But you look around the AFC And you look around the playoffs in the AFC And you're like, all right, well, who's got it? Like I know I do this kind of state of the union Every week where I look at this stuff

But then again, how about this? Okay, here's where I can talk myself out of that. Denver's 9 and 2, number one seed in the AFC. I would not be shocked if Denver didn't win one playoff game. I would not be shocked that if Denver hangs on to this, Denver or New England. I think New England is a much better football team. I think quarterback play being the most important thing there is. Quarterback play for the Patriots is so much better.

Like, I do not believe Bo Nix is any good. I hate the Broncos. You know how I feel about the Broncos. Their defense is fine. You want to talk about dudes who should be frustrated? We're talking about the Eagles and how AJ Brown. ground doesn't get his touches and he's mad and Barclay's numbers are down and everybody's pissed off. There's some pretty good football players playing for the Broncos who for three

quarters of the game don't get to do shit because their offense stinks. So I understand that they're winning games, but I don't buy them. So I guess there's a world where if you look at the top three teams, they're all kind of, not all kind of new money, they're all new money. The Patriots with Drake May, that's new money. Colts with Daniel Jones, that's new money. Broncos at nine and two, that's new money. Here's what I'll tell you. You look at 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. And I think the chiefs are going to find a way to get in. Because I don't believe the Texans are going to be able to hang on. I think the chiefs are going to beat the Texans in a couple weeks. The chiefs are going to get in. There is not a universe where the chiefs are not going to get in.

Could there be a universe where the Ravens don't get in? Sure. But you start to look at some of the quarterbacks that are inevitably going to be left out of this thing. Because as it stands right now, the bills are alive for the division. But if the Patriots who schedule, if I had to guess is probably more manageable because of how bad they were a year ago. I mean, look, Patriots have Bengals, giants, then the bills, that's a tough one, that might win the division or lose it. Ravens, who is tougher now than it was a couple weeks ago, Jets, Dolphins. At worst.

At worst. The Patriots finish, let's see, what are they currently? Nine and two, ten and two, eleven and two. Let's just say they lose the two to the bills and the Ravens. That's 11 and 4, 12 and 4, 13, and 4. worst, if that game at the end of the year matters. They finish 13 and 4. So they've got it laid out for them.

That's why a lot of people are questioning the Patriots because their schedule may be the worst schedule in the history of the NFL. Even the tough games that are on there, like the bills, cool, and the Steelers, I guess. Outside of that, they haven't played shit and they played the Bucks. And they, look, they beat the Bucks, give them credit. But the Bucks have also been beat up. But can you see a scenario where if things hold the way they are, and you've got teams like the Broncos, like the Broncos get the buy. I could see a universe where they lose the first home playoff game.

I could see a universe where if the matchups fall in this way, that the bills beat the Patriots. Because once you get to the playoffs, you got Josh Allen versus Drake May, who you take it? Josh Allen's been there before. Could you see a universe where if the Chargers hang on, which I'm not sure if they will? The charges are beat up. They got offensive line issues, all that. But like, if you got into the playoffs and you're watching Herbert in the postseason versus Bonick, Who are you taking?

You know, does Daniel Jones turn back into a pumpkin? So what your concern would be, like I don't think the Texans are getting in. They're five and five. Their schedule gets a lot tougher. Even though CJ's coming back, they lose tonight. They're five and six. Like they're basically every week feels like a must win for them. Like they're just at that point, especially with the teams they're playing.

You start to look at the matchups. They've got if you're the Texans. You got the Chiefs. You got the bills. These are all other wildcard teams that you're potentially chasing. You've got the Colts who you're not going to win the division against, so whatever. So it's tough. And there's going to be a world where Baltimore might sneak in and they will be favored in a game.

If the Chiefs sneak into the playoffs, I say sneak in if they win, I haven't looked at their schedule. Might as well while we're here. You look at the Chiefs. The Chiefs are going to beat the Texans at home. They've got the Colts, but that's at home. That's a game they can win. And the Colts have been showing a little sign of, you know, whatever. We still don't know if the Colts are real or if it's just the, you know, right now there's a big moment.

And then Daniel Jones turns back into a pumpkin. Fine. Cowboys, they should win. They're at Dallas. There's going to be some offense in that game, but they should win. All right. So let's say, like, I don't think the Chiefs, I just don't see the Chiefs losing three in a row. So let's say at home they beat the Colts this week.

Then they beat the Cowboys, then they beat the Texans. Three game winning streak, they're eight and five. Then you get the Chargers. Titans, Broncos, Raiders. There's a lot of avenues in here where I can see the Chiefs getting in. So I don't think the Chiefs are going to miss it. Maybe it's just biased towards what they've been and thinking about what they've been versus what they are. But I don't think they're going to miss out.

Now, who are they going to replace? Could be a team like Jacksonville. Could be a team like the Chargers. These are all teams that could fall off. Buffalo's hanging out there as well. So really all you have to do, if you're the Chiefs or the Ravens, But if you're the Chiefs is you have to find a way to leapfrog teams like the Texans who you play, Jacksonville, the Chargers, and these are all teams that haven't played particularly well lately. So I think the Chiefs are going to get in.

So if you give me a playoff matchup and it's the Chiefs again versus Denver, for instance, who are you taking? I'm not going to take Bo Nix and that shitty offense over the Chiefs. And until I see it. So you look at the top of the AFC and it's, wow, Broncos, Patriots, Colts. I can make a case for all three. and the Pittsburgh, who now is no longer with Aaron Rogers, probably. They have to see what happens with his wrist. But, like, those top four teams in the AFC, and they're still a long way to go.

There's seven weeks to go, so a lot can change. But there's a possibility that the top four teams in the AFC are going to be teams who could be underdogs or basically even money against the teams under the next handful. So whether it's the Bills, whether it's the Chiefs, whatever. Like, what if it's somehow, and again, I haven't looked at all this, but what if it's Bill's Chiefs Ravens? that are wildcard teams. And you got Lamar in a playoff game against Daniel Jones. Would you believe that Daniel Jones is beating Lamar? Would you believe that Daniel Jones is beating Patrick Mahomes?

Would you believe that Bo Nix is beating Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen? I wouldn't. I wouldn't take that and I wouldn't bet on it and I wouldn't believe it. So this is a weird year in that, like you could say, wow, this year proves that everybody's kind of in the mix. I would take, if it were right now and there were a bet that said Denver or the field to win the AFC.

It would be the field by a mile. And if there was a bet to say, will Denver win a playoff game? My answer would be no. My favorite team out of all those is the Patriots. And I might be a total dope for this because they've played nobody. But I'm in, I really like them.

I like the Patriots and I like Drake May. And you say, well, they've played nobody. Tell me who the Colts have played. Go ahead. List the Colts schedule. Dolphins, Broncos, The Rams, who they lost to. The Raiders, the Cardinals, the Chargers, the Titans, the Steelers, who they lost to, the Falcons. So they've played a shitty schedule, too.

This is one of those classic years of lesser teams. So they played a lesser schedule. They beat up on a bunch of shitty teams. They get in. And then the teams that have been there a hundred times going and kick their ass and win these games and they don't even win a playoff game. That's what it feels like to me in the AFC. That's the AFC vibe I get. And if you're the Texans, the only real hope you have here is you.

you have to win a game like tonight, which again, you're only like a five, six point underdog at home, which seems ridiculous because you're at home, whatever, but the bills in theory should kick the shit out of you. And maybe I'll, but your defense has been so good it keeps you in games, you're rattled guys like that. But you almost feel like the Texans are due to get their teeth knocked in by somebody, don't you? Because they've been kind of like living on borrowed time.

They've been living off a defense. You know, you lived off of the defense against the Broncos, still found a way to lose. You were down huge 19 points and you'll get the rally over the gym. Aguars. You had to barely hang on. Like, you look at that Titans game, and I get that it's on the road, whatever. It's the NFL and everybody can play and blah, blah, blah. You had to pull off a

late win over the Titans. So at some point, they're going to get their dicks knocked off. Like, you feel like that's inevitably going to happen because it feels like you're taken on water and there's only so long your defense can hold the way they're holding. That's how I view the situation

they're in right now. Maybe tonight's that night. Maybe tonight's the night the bills. And you feel like the bills are due to kick the shit out of someone. I'm basing all this just on due. So again, it's hunch, it's gut feeling, right? But you look at what the bills have done recently over the last three games. And yes, they beat the Buccaneers fine, but they gave up 32 points. They got whipped by the dolphins.

They beat the Chiefs. They whipped the Panthers. Like, I feel like they're due to just come out and beat the shit out of somebody. And I think the Texans are due to finally have a bad defensive game. I feel like all of that is kind of a perfect storm. scenario for the Texans to get whipped tonight. You know, maybe the Davis Mills magic, if you want to call it, that wears off.

But we'll see.