The Josh Innes Show - The Birds Will Dominate The Niners

Episode Date: January 9, 2026

There is no real reason for me to believe the Eagles will smoke San Fran. But, they will. I watched the Niners basically no show against the Seahawks in a must have game last week. Let's break it down... Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All right, so playoffs this weekend. That is the NFL. I'm not going to talk about the college football playoff game or anything. Because by the time most of you listen to this, that game will probably have already happened anyway. But I do think Oregon. Actually, I don't know that I think Oregon's going to win, but I want Oregon to win is the way I would put that. But anyway, so football playoffs this weekend, we've kind of broken down the games to a degree. But looking at things on an individual basis.

Actually, let me start here. That's funny. I'm looking at the WIP Twitter. And there's nothing that gets WIP listeners more riled up than having players have to answer questions about the fans in Philadelphia. Like it is just catnip for these people. They're fascinating because on one hand, they don't want you to talk about them like they're Neanderthals. But then when players don't talk about them like they're Neanderthals, they get very angry and defensive over the fact that players don't find them to be Neanderthals. it's a very difficult existence for the McDougals because they don't know what the fuck they want.

They want you to think they're pieces of shit, but then when you call them pieces of shit, they're like, oh, Dodgers fans are a piece of shit too. It's not just us. Very strange. They're an interesting group. Love them.

Very interesting group. Let's play a couple commercials, and you'll hear from George Kittle. A George Kittle video that WIP posted, I guess he was asked about playing in Philadelphia. There's no group of people that love to become part of the discussion, more than Philadelphia people. It is truly the most unique place on the planet. These people are

fascinating. Anyway, let's play a couple commercials and we will continue. All right, here we go. This is, I guess, oh, sorry, my tit just hit the microphone, whatever that noise. If you just heard a noise, my tit, my right tit just hit the microphone. And that's what it sounds like when my right tit hits the mic. If it didn't sound like anything, then it was nothing. And you're like, I didn't hear your tit hit the microphone. But my tit did hit the microphone. Anywho, let's hear what, and I don't know what the question was. I guess, well, I'll give credit here. I don't believe this question was actually asked by a member of the Philadelphia media

because it's of George Kittle and it's via 957 the game, which is the station in San Francisco. So this wasn't one of those situations like, hey, how tough is it going to be to come play us in Philly? Oh, you don't think it's tough. Fuck you. We're assholes. Yeah, you're right. You guys aren't really big douchebag asses. Hey, we're not fucking assholes. They're the other fans of assholes, too. So, whatever. So let's see what George Kittle had to say.

A routine that comes in there, they hate all of us equally, and I just appreciate that. It's incredibly loud. They flip you off. They moon you on your bus stride in. But they do that to anybody. It doesn't matter if you're the Niners. It doesn't matter if the Jacksonville Jaguars.

It doesn't matter. They just give you that no matter what. And I appreciate that because you can tell how much they love your team. There you go. Very simple message. I really like George Kittle. used to. I found him very dushy at one point, but I've grown to actually really kind of enjoy him now. I don't know. I think he's in these commercials for Little Caesars, and I find these commercials

to be funny. But anywho, I thought that was going to go in a much different direction where McDougal's going to be all worked up. And what do you mean? We hate everybody equally. We hate the Cowboys more. But whatever. All right. So looking at the game itself, I'm not a believer in San Francisco. I don't really, like, it's weird to say I don't like their weapons. I like Kittle. And I like CMC, obviously. But everybody else is kind of fine. Juan Jennings fine. Offensive line is fine.

Quarterback is not fine. I think this is a game where the Eagles are going to turn purdy over a couple times. And I don't know that I think this game is going to be particularly close. And I shouldn't feel that way because of how up and down the Eagles have been and how inconsistent their offensive line play has been and how really just overall inconsistent the offense has been and not even inconsistent. The Eagles offense is not inconsistent.

For the most part, the Eagles offense has fucking sucked. Because inconsistent would be, oh, they were great today, bad this week. Like, I'd say that two thirds of the season, two thirds of their games, out of the 17 games they've played, their offense is pretty much fucking sucked. Or it sucked for most of the game

and then had a good fourth quarter or something. Like against the Rams where they were down huge and rallied. They'll have a big quarter to start with a huge first quarter and then disappear for three quarters. I don't believe the Eagles offense is good. You do not play 17 weeks of shitty to middling football with occasional moments of greatness and call that inconsistent. That's not a good football team.

Offensively, they stink. And you don't do that for 17 weeks and then show up in the playoffs and play four games where you're a juggernaut. They're not a juggernaut. They are inconsistent. The quarterback play is inconsistent. The running game with Sequan Barkley has been almost non-existent at times. But all that said, despite the fact that everything I've just laid out about the offense,

about the inconsistencies and the O line and the running game being non-existent with Sequant and having to force feed A.J. Brown to make him happy early in the game and then he disappears for long stretches. Stretches where they're bad for three quarters but the fourth quarter is great or stretches where the first quarter is great and they disappear for two and a half quarters. The offensive coordinator stinks, all that. The Eagles are going to win the game. and I think the Eagles are going to win it big. Will it be the biggest margin of victory of the weekend?

Probably not. Which isn't a bold take because, I mean, they're five and a half point favorite. They are the second biggest favorite of the weekend behind the Rams who are 10.5 point favorite on the road at Carolina. Every other game, point and a half, point and a half, three and a half, three. Five and a half is a giant spread for a playoff game against two teams who record-wise seem pretty evenly matched. there is no reason to believe that the Eagles are going to kick the shit out of San Francisco, particularly based on the ineptitude of their offense for long stretches. But they are going to.

The Eagles are going to kick the shit out of the 49ers. I don't think it's going to be super competitive. I think you're going to find situations where Purdy's going to look rough. I think here's what I think's going to happen. I think we're going to hit a point in the broadcast. By the way the Eagles defense is able to just. corral and keep them under control, I think we're going to hit a point

where they're going to start talking about Mac Jones on TV. Now, they're not going to go to Mac Jones, but they're going to go in depth on how Mac Jones was good for them. And like, you start to question, I mean, look, this offense isn't able to move the ball. They need some sort of jolt. Because I think the Eagles defense is going to be disgusting against these guys. I think they're going to hold them under control pretty good. And I think they'll be good enough offensively.

Like, guess that's what the Eagles do. Like, the Eagles are left for dead. There's no reason to believe in them offensively. As we noted, they're not inconsistent offensively. Inconsistent is up, down, up, up, down, down, down, down, down. Up, up, up, up, up, down, down, down, down, down, down, da, da, da. There's no inconsistency with them. They're just not good.

They are so inconsistent that I would label them as not good. But they're at home. They're facing a team that they are overall better than. They have the better quarterback. They have the better overall collection of talent. Like skill position guys, top to bottom. I think Kittles better than Goddard, but Goddard's good. I think Christian McCaffrey and Seekwon, you can say, as a wash,

although McCaffrey's been better this year than Seyquan. Sequan's falling off a cliff, I get that. So if it's just this year, I'd say, okay, you'd start. I'd take McCaffrey, but talent-wise and history-wise, they're awash. There isn't a number one receiver that plays for San Francisco, so there's not a guy that's AJ Brown. You could put Devante Adams up against the rest of their guys. Tied in, I guess I'd give the edge to Kittle a little bit, but, like, I mean, he's a bigger

name and bigger star than Goddard, but Goddard's pretty fucking good. So if you want to call it a push, I wouldn't argue with you. I wouldn't say, no, I don't know about that. So you got a push there. Defense are both, you know, solid, but the Eagles' defense. is better. The Eagles front is better. The Eagles offensive line has issues. I get that, but the Eagles offensive line win right is better. Lane Johnson's a question, but like the Eagles offensive line is better. They're at home. They're a five and a half point playoff favorite.

Like that doesn't happen very often. That neither does a 10 and a half point favorite like you get from the Rams. I'm curious to know what the biggest point spreads in playoff history are. biggest point spreads in NFL playoff history. I'm genuinely curious. The Chargers have the highest spread by a team in a playoff game. They were at 18.5 point underdog in the Super Bowl against the 49ers. 49ers didn't let down. They kicked their ass in that game pretty good.

But let's look at this. So 5.5 has to be one of the bigger lines that we have seen in recent history, right? So let's take a look. Okay, good. This starts last year. All right. So let's see. Chiefs and Bills, that was a one-point spread in the conference finals.

The Eagles were a six-point favorite against Washington and beat up on them pretty good. So the Eagles are just used to being a home team that has big point spreads in the playoffs. The Eagles were a seven-point favorite against the Rams in the playoffs and damn near lost that in 2025 that same year. It's amazing. Most of the biggest point spreads that you're going to see in NFL recent. in history, many of them are Eagles related as being a heavy favorite. The Rams or sorry, the Lions were a huge favorite against the commanders and just got their dicks knocked off last year.

Chiefs, nine and a half point favorite against the Texans and the Texans covered that. Let's see, looking at the Philly ones historically, in their first round game against the Packers, they were a five and a half point favorite in that game. Let's see, the previous year. If you go down to the year, let's see, some of the other Philly race. related ones. I mean, Philly, two and a half against San Francisco back in 2023. I mean, Philly is a two and a half point favorite against Tampa. I mean, look, so, look, Philly was, let's see, where's the other number I was looking at?

Point being is, generally speaking, when you look at point spreads in the NFL playoffs, they're closer to one, one and a half, two, three, like that's what you're looking at. Rarely are you getting that big of a number? Five and a half is a relatively large number for playoff football. It just is, right? So like, for example, last year's playoffs, if you look at all the games that happened in the playoffs last season, let's see, how many were greater than five and a half? One, two, three, four. There were four games last year out of all the playoff games that had a point spread greater than five and a half. Five and a half is a big number, relatively speaking. And this is a big number. I mean, you're talking about teams that in theory are

evenly matched. And you've got the Eagles who are favored by five and a half points at home. And I think the Eagles are going to win. I am not going to go against the Eagles at home, even though there's all of these reasons to borderline write them off and scoff. And yes, they've played some close home playoff games in the past. The Rams coulda shoulda would have beaten them last year in the playoffs. You know, eight years ago, whenever they played the Falcons, the Falcons coulda shoulda would have beat them before the Eagles won that and eventually went on to win the Super Bowl. It's not impossible to go to Philadelphia and win.

I don't think anybody views it that way. I don't know. When I went to games in Philadelphia, I never found the place to be loud or obnoxious. The internet is louder and more obnoxious than the link. I just never found the link to be that intimidating of a place. I don't think it held the sound very well. I went to playoff games in the Louisiana Superdome, which is the loudest place I've ever set foot in. That place is bonkers.

I can see where that would have an impact. Now, look, I'm not down on the field. George Kittle says it's very loud. no better than I would, fine. But I never found that to be that intimidating of a place. Like, I don't believe it's impossible for a team to go into Philadelphia and win a playoff game. This isn't like that.

Like, obviously, a lot of teams don't do it, but there are a lot of teams that do go in there and the game is competitive, and we've seen games come down to the last drive and the Eagles damn near lose them. We saw it with the Rams game last year. We saw it with their game against the Packers last year where they were a five and a half point favorite, although that game wasn't super close. We saw it, as I mentioned it, that foul. Falcons game a couple years ago.

Tampa came in and got smoked. Tampa played against the Eagles. That was a road game. But, you know, that was a, you know, it got smoked in that one. You know, Tampa ended up winning that one and smoking the Eagles. So whatever. But point being in all of this is it's not like Philly is a place that you, it's like a house of horrors and you just can't do it.

Like, I don't believe the games the Eagles have won at home in the playoffs recently are just because they're played at the link. because I just don't think the link is that great of a place. And it's proven by the fact that down the stretch, Rams are in the game, Falcons are in the game, you know, different teams are in the game. They have a chance to win it. Packers in the game, right?

So I'm not going to give it to them because, oh, it's the home crowd is why they have a huge edge. But for whatever reason, it's the birds. And they find ways to win these playoff games at home. I don't see a scenario where they're going to lose. And if you ask me, Josh, what's more likely to happen? It's a tight game. 49ers have a chance to win it down the stretch or the birds win by 20.

I think there's a better shot. The birds win by 20. I know that sounds bizarre because it's a five-point spread and they play a lot of close playoff games at home against some of these teams. Outside of, you know, when they smoked the commanders last year. I think they're going to kick the shit out of them. They're either going to lose or kick. the shit out of them. Like, I don't see this being one of those eeked-it-out type of games for whatever reason. I think they're going to come out guns blazing early. And, you know, they've had a week

off with their starters. I think they come out and we're like, oh, shit, look at them slinging it around a little bit. Like, we're going to go, where's this been all year? Like, that's what it's going to feel like. Opening drive, bang, bang, AJ, touchdown, whatever. Where's been all year? And then I think the onslaught is all. I think they're going to beat the shit of them. And I think it has a chance to be the biggest point differential of the weekend. Like I also, to be fair, I also expect the Rams to just bludge in Carolina. Like, I don't think the Rams are here to fuck around. They've already lost to these guys once. That's a whole hell of a lot of bad news for the Panthers. So I think that's going to be an

ass kicking, but I think this game's going to be an ass kicking too. I think those are the two, and I think these are both going to be curb stompings. I also think the Texans game has a chance to be a curb stomping as well. But I think this is a pistol weapon in this game. So I don't know why I feel that way. I shouldn't feel that way. There's no reason to feel that way. But I feel that way.

So I think the Eagles are going to smoke these fools because I just, look, I was buying into San Francisco until I watched San Francisco have to go on the road and play what was basically a playoff game against Seattle. Actually, that was a home game that they played against Seattle, wasn't it? Yeah. Well, actually, no, they went to Seattle for that game. Either way, it didn't matter. Those guys had a chance to win a game that would put them in the driver's seat for a buy,

and it felt like they never even showed up. And that Seattle defense is good. You could argue the Eagles defense better. Probably better. So I think Purdy's going to turn the ball over a couple times, and we're going to go into the offseason looking at Purdy going, Eek. He's going to be the topic of a lot of conversation about being worth the money and all that shit,

because I think we're going to leave this game with him getting smoked. All right, more to come.