The Josh Innes Show - Week 18 Player Incentives

Episode Date: January 3, 2025

It's not a true Prop Til You Drop, but we've got some of the NFL player incentives for week 18. Some of these dudes stand to make some big time cash. Jilly offers her thoughts the Eagles sitting Saquon. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All righty, friends, it's Josh and Jilly, and it is that exciting time of the year that is prop bet like bonanza time because there's incentive season. It's incentive season for NFL players. That means that they have like money that there's tons of cash that's on the line this weekend for a lot of players. Tons of cash on the line. Lots for a lot of players tons of cash on the line lots of players let's fucking go um you know obviously there's some that you know there are games that are more meaningful than others but like you got the bangles this weekend bangles and the steelers game may mean very little to the steelers once it happens but to me you know and this is kind of a this is sort of prop to you drop although a lot of the props aren't out there and it's hard to get a read on who's even going to be playing or not so keep

that in mind but with that said I'm still looking at Joe Burrow doesn't Joe what's Joe's totally has to throw for to get to 5,000 which not a lot of dudes have done I know Drew Brees has done it five times there's only been a handful of players in the history of the NFL to ever throw for 5,000 yards. So Joe has an opportunity to be one of those dudes that throws for 5,000. He needs like 300-something, I think is what...

That's a very attainable number. He needs 359. So three... Well, for Joe, yes, 359 is very attainable. It's a big number. And the Steelers... But honestly, there's more because he could actually finish with the

NFL the only the fifth 5,000 yard 45 touchdown season so there's something to play for now again I don't know what his incentive like I don't know what his contract says about that like I don't know 359 yards and three touchdowns against the Steelers that's very attainable for Joey B especially if it's a shootout. I mean, I think he threw for like 400 or something the last time those two teams played. It was a shootout. So I would imagine his contract says that if you throw for 5,000 yards, I wouldn't be surprised if that's like a million bucks because 5,000 is a big number.

I remember sitting at the Thai restaurant back in August, and it said any quarterback to throw for 5,000, and then more specifically which quarterback would throw for 5,000. And I said, Joe seems like he could do that. And he was like, that's stupid. No one throws for 5,000 yards. And I said, all right, I guess you're probably right. Don't remember what the value was on it, but it was probably pretty good.

Probably, but I'm not wrong. It doesn't happen all that often. It's not something we see very often, but here we are. Joe Burrow has a chance, and he may have to throw for all of those yards because, again, the game may matter to the Steelers. It may not, and it obviously matters to them. They have to win. The Bengals have to win.

I think it will matter to the Steelers either way because even if the Ravens win the first game and they're 20-point favorites so I feel like they're definitely going to. I think the seating would still be up for grabs. Yeah, they wouldn't be able to win the division, but if you had your druthers as Jim would say and you could be the five and play

the Texans or end up like the six and play the Ravens. I'd play the Texans all day. I the six and play the Ravens. Well, I play the Texans all day. I don't know how much people really consider that, but, and same with the chargers, the chargers. I think they think about it.

No doubt. I think the thought crosses your mind. You want a better match in theory that are playing for nothing except for seating. But wouldn't you rather be the fucking five and the six? Yes, I would think so. You don't want to go face your brother in Baltimore first round?

Well, I don't know if they care about that. If his brother coached a shitty team, he wouldn't care. I just don't think he wants to face the fucking Ravens again. But you get Burrow. So Burrow, I'd like to know. I'm sure someone's got the number somewhere in one of these stories about incentives. But I wonder what the number is

or how much money Joe Burrow could make for getting to 5,000 yards. I mean, I've seen a lot of stories about incentives. I have what the number is or how much money Joe Burrow could make for getting to 5,000 yards I mean I've seen a lot of stories about incentives I have not seen that anywhere that's weird like I I'm surprised by this I would have thought that Joe Burrow getting to fight I mean any player in their contract getting to 5,000 yards um would matter like I would think that that would be something but perhaps it's not but um and maybe it's just not that big of a deal because he has other things he's playing for as well I mean he's playing for a playoff spot it's not just like the season's over can he get to you know 5,000 yards

but uh now this is I don't know how true any of that well this doesn't really help us at all but there's you know Super Bowl winning quarterback and afc championship incentives in his contract but i don't know if he's got any yardage total incentives in there either uh now this is from last year looking at his deal uh he's got a roster bonus of blah blah training camp roster bonus guaranteed blah blah base salary he has a 500 000 incentive for winning the afc championship another 1.25 million for winning the super bowl so i don't see anything about yardage in there either i wouldn't doubt that it exists it probably does exist but um i think he's got a i wouldn't say realistic because it's still having to throw for 360 yards not like he can't do it but will he

have to do it? Will they get up big enough where they're not concerned? Do the Steelers truly want or need to win? You have to remember, Jamar still wants that triple crown. I don't know who's closest to him for receiving yards, catches, and touchdowns. Look, I'm taking the over. Whatever Jamar Chase's receiving yardage total is, which most weeks it's somewhere like damn near around 90. And if that's

the case, let me see if they've got a number up for him right now. I would imagine they probably do since that game matters for both teams. Let's see what the receiving yardage total is for our boy. 92 and a half. I would take that because your boy is going to go out there and be catching some balls. So I would keep an eye on him. Now, let's do this. Let's play a couple commercials. Let's look at some of the other incentives around the league. These incentives will give you a pretty good idea of who to take in prop bets if you like to do that kind of stuff.

And if nothing else, it gives you something to watch for in some games. Many of them are meaningless. So let's do that right now. We'll play a couple commercials, and then we will do incentives here. All right, if you're ready to win some real cash during the basketball playoffs, you've got to check out Pick 6 from DraftKings. When it comes to basketball payouts, DraftKings Pick 6 posterizes the competition, including prize picks.

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Bonus award. It is non-withdrawable pick six credits that expire in 14 days. Limited time offer. See terms at pick6.draftkings.com slash promos. All right, Jelly. The first one that I thought of was the King, Derrick Henry. He's playing for something. Obviously, his yardage total kind of fell off from where it was early in the king, Derrick Henry. He's playing for something. Obviously, his yardage total kind of

fell off from where it was early in the year, but he's had this amazing resurgence season. He was in the MVP race early on, and really through about half the season, he was still a legit candidate for the MVP. What is his incentive? Derrick Henry needs to score one touchdown for $500,000. So Derrick Henry's going to score a touchdown. Let me see what the value on Derrick Henry to score a touchdown is. It's probably like minus 250. I bet you it's even worse. It's probably like minus 500.

As of right now, though, the Baltimore-Cleveland game does not have any prop bets right now on FanDuel. On FanDuel, I didn't see it. Let me look at DraftKings then. But on FanDuel currently, I don't see any prop bets for that let's see NFL we look at Baltimore touchdown scores Derrick Henry is minus 235 so really that's a solid parlay piece if you're building a parlay because there's no way they're not going to get the ball to Derrick Henry for $500,000 that's half a mil to score a fucking touchdown

he's going to get a touchdown and his whole goddamn for $500,000. That's half a mil to score a fucking touchdown. He's going to get a touchdown, and this whole goddamn team knows it. There's that. What else we got? Well, the biggest incentive is Mike Evans could make $3 million to score, to have five catches and 85 receiving yards. So that would get him to $1,000,

right? But then what's the catches total? Five catches. So again, but what would that get him to like what no but it's worth three million dollars so he's gonna catch the ball five times and he's probably gonna have a hundred receiving yards so mike evans is a very and that game matters to them so that is a big one today he only needs 85 to get this so three million dollars 85 receiving yards and five catches in a game again the most important factor in this is the game matters for Tampa their season is still very much on the line here so Tampa be looking and Baker has spoken a lot about how he wants to get Mike Evans all these incentives now Baker has a shit ton of incentives too

like I forgot what all Baker has but I think that that Baker, like, has a chance to make, like, $750,000 in incentives this week. He has already. I think there might be more. I'm pretty positive. I was reading something about Baker Mayfield's incentives. But, like, I want to say that, well, actually, he's got them, and I don't think he can fall out, but they were all top five ranking-based incentives. So I think he had an opportunity in passing yardage to be in the top five or touchdowns or something.

Well, he'll earn $500,000 apiece for finishing in the top five. Oh, stupid ad popped up. In the top five in the NFL passer rating, in the NFL 10 or NFC top five in completion percentage, and in the NFL top 10 or NFC top five and completion percentage and in the NFL top 10 or NFC top five in yards per attempt he enters the finale against New Orleans ranked fourth in passer rating second in completion percentage and seventh in yards per attempt so he's got a chance to make some serious coin look at Baker he's up to like fifth in the NFC in yards that's your boy you're a big look

and I want Tampa to make the playoffs just because they're a fun a more fun team to bet like you look at teams like Atlanta like I don't want to go out there and bet on Michael Penix like or Drake London's fine whatever but I'd like to have Mike Evans out there uh Jalen McMillan is another good guy to bet on and of course Baker so I hope they get in even though I hate both of those teams because I root for the Saints and I really do hate Tampa but I'd rather see them for a betting standpoint or just a fun game standpoint got a good story like everyone wrote his ass off like let's go bake all right what else we got uh Gino Smith needs 185 passing yards for two mil so he'll get that the problem is you have to see what his actual total is like if he gets to 186 do they pull him or does it even really matter

like the season's over anyway, so just go play. Like the game is completely meaningless to Seattle. So just go out there and sling for 300 yards and get yours. How much was it? Two million. Fuck! Go out there and sling it 400 times if you have to to get to that. And I don't know what Geno Smith's contract is,

but he seems like somebody who may have to be like, hey, I'm still good. Like don't forget about me. Well, I think a big part of Gino's thing is the incentives that's why I like a deal like that to get two million to throw for another 185 yards fucking rock sling it Gino who are they playing I have no idea well somebody that the game doesn't the Rams probably a team in the division so and the game doesn't matter to them. So, they've been eliminated anyway. So, go out there and sling. I don't know if they have a chance to wreck anybody's season.

I don't think that's the case. That division's already set up. Yeah, it's the Seahawks and the Rams. Mariota's starting. So, yeah, it's done. So, go out there and throw for your yards and get your two million bucks, Chief. What a world. What about Mariota? Was it Jimmy G? Ah, well, rock on.

What else we got? DeAndre Hopkins has a few he can hit. It would total to 750,000, but it's 250 apiece. And the question is, how much is he going to play? Like, if it was like one catch, maybe. The problem is the Chiefs really have no need to play at all. Well, he needs 140 receiving yards. That seems unlikely

it's unlikely it's attainable especially back in the prime of d hop but that's probably not going to happen you need six catches that's also attainable but like do they they brought him in to help them win a super bowl and they're a legit contender i don't know that you put him out there to catch six balls in a meaningless game but he does need one touchdown touchdown is more likely but remember you have to get yourself all revved up to even play a game again I don't know who they're gonna play and who they're not gonna play obviously the game doesn't matter to Kansas City at all so and it's not like you have a chance to have an all-time record either like if you look at the Saquon angle which I think you and I both agree Saquon like I go back and forth on it I

totally understand the the reason why he's not but I think he wants to play I think he wants to be the all-time record holder why wouldn't he want to be wouldn't you want to be the all-time rushing single season record holder of course you would you have a legit chance if you watched his like where he was talking about it like to me it really seemed like he really wanted to do it I think he was explaining he's like well you know when we won the last game day I was like oh you know it's cool it's cool because like you're feeling the adrenaline we're winning Super Bowl yeah he's like then really wanted to do it. I think he was explaining, he's like, well, you know, when we won the last game day, I was like, oh, you know, it's cool. It's cool because like you're feeling the adrenaline. We're winning Super Bowl.

Yeah. And he's like, then I talked to my family and the next day I was kind of like, but it's kind of like an opportunity to like etch my name in history and like these opportunities just don't come around ever. And no one will ever break it because no one's ever going to run the ball like this ever again. People don't run the ball. You have a much better chance of setting the single season passing yardage record than you have

a rushing record like this it just doesn't happen so it's his old team like it's the Giants theoretically he could probably do that in a half I would also imagine he's got something in his contract that says if you set like a totally unrealistic thing like like I used to have shit in my contract I bet he got an incentive for getting a 2000 probably like like i used to have shit in my contract i bet he got an incentive for getting a 2000 probably but like i used to have really unrealistic things in my contracts too that they put in there and they say hey if you get to this you'll get blank thousands of dollars and it's shit that you're never gonna hit but like maybe that was in there like if you set the single season rushing record but i feel like if that were the case it'd be a bigger story

too because then people would be bitching that the coach and the team is being cheap and they don't want him to get the record. But who knows? Point being in all of this, though, is I'd like to see the guy go for it. He's arguably the MVP of the league. He's not going to be, but he certainly has a legit case for it. He's the MVP of the team. They're not going to win the Super Bowl without him, but I'd like to see him get the chance to do it because you don't get to see that very often. And no one's ever going to break that shit again.

No one. That's the argument that I hate is like everyone's like, well, I mean, would you rather that or the Super Bowl? But like they make it seem like the Eagles have this easy path to the fucking Super Bowl. They really don't. Like right now, if it stays how it is,

I think they'd play Green Bay in the first round. Green Bay could beat them. What it comes down to for the Eagles is if the Eagles are leading in a fourth quarter, they could go to work and work the clock and run the ball and kill you. It would be death by a thousand paper cuts. They could do that to you. If they're trailing, I don't know that I believe in them to rally.

If they're winning, I think they can beat anybody. But I'm with you. It's not like the Eagles are the clear-cut Super Bowl favorite. I talked about this earlier. I think they're like fourth or fifth in the Super Bowl odds right now. And, and you know I think the Lions can sling with them any day of the week so and I think the the Vikings could so again it's not like oh my god like in the case of the then again this isn't for an all-time record it's for money but like DeAndre Hopkins there's no need for him to play because the Chiefs are the legit Super Bowl threat of the AFC and they always will be so there's no real reason for them to go out and risk this guy they

picked up to help them win a Super Bowl so he can make a couple bucks now if he goes to them and says I want to try to get six catches today because I want $250,000 I wouldn't tell the guy no but that's not why you brought him there you didn't bring him there to pay him $250,000 for getting six more catches or one more touchdown you brought him there to help you a Super Bowl, and it's not like he set an all-time record. Saquon Barkley could set an all-time fucking record. All right, what else we got as far as incentives? God, I love this stuff.

This is good. This is one I certainly like. $750,000 if Kyler Murray scores one rushing tut and rushes for 50 yards. That's easy peasy. Homeboy, and you know he knows this, and the game's meaningless, so he's going to go out there and put up some shit, so that's easy peasy. Certainly the yards. Touchdowns

are tougher, but I'm taking that all day. He's playing the 49ers, who have also just they're out, so fuck it. We talked about Derrick Henry already. Cortland Sutton of the Broncos needs 82 receiving yards to make $500,000. Taking that too.

In a meaningful game because they have to win to get in. Correct. And they'll know whether or not they have to win to get in. No, because the Dolphins can still get in. Oh, so wait. So if the Bengals lose, Dolphins win, Broncos lose, the Dolphins are in. Correct. Okay, so the game is no matter what going to be meaningful for them.

Even if the Bengals win and the Dolphins win and the Broncos lose, the Dolphins are in. And how much cash was that for Sutton? $500,000. Oh, yeah. And you know that they want to get him the ball, especially a young quarterback like that wants to get the dude the ball. Totally, I'm taking that. Tony Pollard needs 83 rushing yards for $250,000,

but I don't know if he is healthy is the problem. I don't know if he's injured. That would be a solid one to play because there's no reason for them to do anything other than try to get their boy some fucking yards. On the stupid Titans. Ooh, we're in the Oilers uniforms. We got to sweep the Texans. There's nothing dumber than that.

That's all they have. They're poorly run. The owner's a stooge. They fired a great coach. They have a stooge coach now. The owner's a stooge. They fired a great coach. They have a stooge coach now. The front office is stooge-filled. Their quarterback sucks. So they're a mess.

So that's all they have is wearing their oiler uniforms to try to flip the bird to the Texans. That's all they got. So good for them. Now, D'Amico's already said he's resting most of the guys, but Joe Mixon needs 107 rushing yards to get $250,000 I don't think there's any way if they're resting everybody they're certainly not going to run a dude who's battled injuries all year out there for $250,000 ain't no way and there's a great debate to be had about whether or not the Texans should actually

play and try to find their mojo I think you're a big believer in that they should I think I said that the last podcast we did like They need to fucking get their shit together and play and get some momentum heading into the playoffs because they have zero right now. I think that's fair, but I think they're obviously not going to do that. They're going to go in and I think they're probably going to get their asses kicked in the playoffs. It was Chuck Pagano

today on the Pat McAfee show was talking about the same thing. I was like, yes, Chuck. Yes. He's like, they've been arresting their players for the last five weeks. Yeah, they got to figure their shit out. They do. What else is there? They like, yes, Chuck. Yes. He's like, they've been resting their players for the last five weeks. Yeah, they got to figure their shit out. They do. What else is there? They're in trouble, man.

Oh, no, they're in a lot of... Look, they ain't beating anybody. Maybe they could beat the Steelers. I think the Steelers are about to find themselves in some disarray, other than the fact they've lost three games in a row. Four in a row, I think. They've lost four in a row, and now Pickens is doing Pickens shit, and it seems like he and Rusty are at odds. So I think they're donezo

unless they play the Texans who they could beat. But I also think the Texans could beat them as terrible as the Texans have been. I think at home they could win that. I don't think I'd pick them to do it, but I think they could. Well, we know the Texans will play at 330 on the Saturday. So be ready here in nine days. Be ready for it. That's a given. Marquez Valdez-Scantling, one of my faves to take, needs one touchdown with the Saints to get $250,000. Well, I feel bad for him because I don't think he's going to fucking get it because he's got to count on Spencer Rattler to get you the ball,

and they haven't been doing much of that with anybody. So I feel for you, you brother but I don't think you're getting that touchdown and then one more JK Dobbins of the Chargers again a somewhat meaningful game for seating he needs 58 rushing yards to get 150,000 dollars how many yards 58 oh I take that I don't think they want to put Herbert into a position where he you know is at risk also I mean they're in the game has meaning, but I think they have no issue feeding the ball to a guy for some cash for 58 yards or whatever it is. So I think I would take that, too.

That's a solid one. But to me, the lock of the century is Mike Evans, because all year that's what they've talked about is how they want to keep his 1,000-yard streak going. And Baker's talked about how important that is to him as well. I am very, very, very confident that that's going to happen. I feel very good that you're going to get a shitload of yards from Mike Evans. All right, so here's what we're going to do. I'm going to get this one up.

So you were telling me earlier that who, wait, who's starting for the Browns this weekend. Bailey Zappy will be the starter. All right. So you, you told me that there are 40 quarterbacks who started for the Browns since 1999.

Bailey Zappy will be the 40th. All right, let's do, I think that warrants its own show. So we're going to do that here coming up.