The Josh Innes Show - Week 2 NFL Knockout Pool Picks

Episode Date: September 10, 2024

Allie, our great friend of the show, has to make picks for her office suicide pool. Here's the issue, she doesn't know anything about football. So, she has me and Jilly make the picks for her. Last week, we took the Saints and get her off to a great start. Now, we must choose two winners every week. Let's get in the lab and see what we can come up with. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All righty, Jmokes, what's happening? Jilly and I are helping our friend Allie. Now, if any of you have listened to the podcast for any amount of time, and by that, if you listened to the podcast when we did the podcast and had Twitch and everything, Allie, daughter of Bobbo, wife of Big Dick Evan, Allie was a regular, and Allie, with her job,

what does Allie do? Like, I don't even know what she does. I don't really know how to describe it either, to be honest with you. All right. I think it's placing ads, maybe. I don't know. I should know this, but. Well, that's fine.

I think she moved jobs. I think her and Nikki worked together at some point. I don't know. All right. Now, Nikki, of course, is Allie's sister. She's been on the pod before, too. And, of course, Bobbo has been on the pod. We saw Bobbo over the summer. If any of you are

hip to the old school pod of 2020, 2021, 2022, you know Bobbo very well during the Rona. Bobbo, of course, had the famous picture where he wore the bandana into the liquor store during the Rona that we used to put up on the Twitch all the time. Well, anyway, we bring up Allie because last year Allie enlisted our services in her, I guess they call it a knockout pool now where you have to pick winners, just straight up winners in football. It used to be called a suicide pool. I don't know what the hell the politically correct terminology for it is now. We'll call it a suicide pool. And last last year we didn't win but we got fairly deep into it I think we were relatively close to winning I think but I'm not positive um and whoever won

won like 500 bucks or something so it's legit this isn't just some throwaway oh here's you know 50 or a gift card there's real money involved in this and Ali doesn't know shit and I guess Big Dick Evan doesn't know shit about football because, look, I don't want to besmirch Big Dick Evan. He's a cop. He's a military guy. Large hog. I'm not one to shit on him, but obviously me and my wife. He's actually been promoted to detective now.

That I do know. He's like law and order and shit. Good for Big Dick Evan. So detective, military, big hog, but maybe he doesn't know as much about football as me and my old lady here so here's what we're gonna do uh last week we gave her the saints i felt like the saints even though spread wouldn't indicate it spread would indicate that the bangles would have been the obvious play last week and thank the fuck christ we didn't play that i bet a lot of people in this pool took them and that's good now for the now this pool the way this works is and i don't normally do these things other than doing this

for alley last week we had to pick one winner and you can't reuse the same team so you've got to use every team and this week and here on out we pick two yes now if we if we lose one of these we're still alive but you can't lose twice right all right so let's break this thing down here so last week we went Saints. Look, through one week, we look like the smartest people at her work. Like Allie walks in. I hope she doesn't tell people that we do this for. I hope they think she does it.

I think that's exactly what she does. Good for her, Allie. That's what I want you to do. I want you to walk into work every day when you go 2-0, 2-0, 2-0, 2-0. And I want you to peacock around the building and say, they're like, Allie, how do you do this? All the dudes in the office are like, Allie, how did you know to pick the Saints? It was only a two-point spread.

She's like, I just know football. I don't know what to tell you. It was a vision. I had a vision. Again, back to how little Allie knows football. I believe one week last week we told her to pick Dallas, and she says, which team is that? Is that the one with the star?

Yes, so she knows very little but we came through in a big way Saints were the biggest I think point wise what was the final in that 40 to 10 if the final was 47 to 10 so they won by 37 they obviously had to be the biggest victor of the weekend so we nailed that Allie looks brilliant and that's why we do it. I don't do this to feel good about myself. My self-worth isn't wrapped around in what I know about sports or if I pick games correctly or if my prop bets, which we'll get into later in the week, for Prop Tia Drop. We'll get Jillian on Prop Tia Drop this week. She's like the prop bet goddess, okay?

So we'll do that later. But I don't wrap myself in this. I want Allie to be able to walk into work and have all these people mystified as to how she's doing this and I want to piss off the dudes in the office when the chick that says oh the Cowboys the team with the star like I want them to wonder how she's picking these correctly so we have to pick two and the Saints are off the board and I think that was the best game to take for the Saints because I still deep down think they're going to be mediocre.

And they're playing Dallas this week. I know who we're not taking. We're not taking the Saints this week. Scratch them off. Now, part of the art in doing this is you want to find teams that a week ago had a win they shouldn't have had. So we'd start with whoever's playing New England. Who is playing New England?

That's Seattle. um whoever's playing new england who is playing new england that's seattle and okay and then then there's a lot of depth that goes into these things too because then you got to look at seattle down the road and see if they've got like a carolina you want to just find whoever's playing carolina every week and try to take them but you also don't want to waste a good team like you want to use a good team when a good team's playing another good team that you think they could beat whereas you don't want to take them against a bad team like the Chiefs versus the Panthers don't waste the Chiefs on the Panthers and really who and you're going to eventually have to take the Panthers who in the hell are you going to take the Panthers against

they're the worst team ever there's a lot of a lot of elements here in week two but uh go down the schedule here so what do we got oh Thursday night is the Bills at Dolphins, two 1-0 teams that had a rally to come back, but they won. I'm not taking either team in that one, I don't think. I think I'm going to hold on because those are two solid teams, but I'm not totally writing them off, but I'm not interested yet until I hear the rest of the games. Well, then we have the Colts and the Packers.

Packers don't have a quarterback. Colts are one that I would consider in that. I don't know. What is the spread? Does it say the spread for these games? We'll look at that another time. And that's at Indianapolis? No, at Green Bay. So Green Bay doesn't have a quarterback. I mean, Malik is going to have to play, right?

They haven't picked up Tanny Hill or any of these guys. They've got Clifford as an option too, I think. No, the Colts are winning this. I think the Colts are a pretty good team I'm not a big Richardson guy I don't think he's anything special he's gonna have to go on the road but if I'm Green Bay like I mean you lose a dude that I think's gonna at least in my bets gonna throw for over 4,000 yards this year probably not gonna happen now in Jordan Love okay Colts are one that we would consider we'll put the Colts on the consider them.

Again, the key is to find opportunities for bad teams against other bad teams and take them in the suicide pool. But the Colts are a possibility, although I think they're a pretty solid team. Who's next? Believe it or not, they're only a three-point favorite. They're fucking with us is what's happening. Colts are a possibility. Colts are a possibility. Colts are a possibility.

What do we got next? Then we've got the Ravens at the, or I'm sorry, the Raiders at the Ravens. Okay. I'm not going to, the Raiders aren't good either. So I'm not going to, and there's no sense in wasting the Ravens with that. Okay. Saints and Cowboys. We can't take the Saints and we're certainly not taking the Cowboys.

No, the Cowboys. Can't waste them yet. No. Although the Cowboys at home are, I think there's a very good chance they throttle the Saints. Although, you've got two teams feeling good about themselves and maybe not rightfully so. Cowboys go on the road and shouldn't have been an underdog and beat the shit out of the Browns who are awful with Deshaun Watson. We get all that.

We know that. And then the Saints at home against maybe the worst team in the NFL. By the end of the season, we're going to look at the Panthers and say they're the worst team in the NFL. They have nothing good going for them. Bryce Young sucks. So I think both teams are feeling themselves a little bit. I take the home team in that one, but I'm not going to take either one of them in this pool. They are six and a half point home favorites. Well, look, if the Saints won, would I be shocked? No. But I don't want to mess with either one of those teams.

Obviously, I can't mess with the Saints because we already took them. And I'm not going to mess with the Cowboys on that one. Your go-to here. The Panthers are at home against the Chargers. Look, if you look at who else the Chargers have on the schedule, they're going to have to play the Chiefs twice. That's probably two losses. Raiders, who knows?

I don't think the Raiders are dreadful. I actually like Minshew a little bit. Then they've have to play the chiefs twice that's probably two losses raiders who knows like i don't think the raiders are dreadful i actually like menshu a little bit um then they gotta play the broncos who i think is there's a good opportunity for them to beat them um you know i'm look maybe the strategy is whoever is playing the panthers we take them so chargers are certainly a possibility char, we put a check mark and say maybe. And we have the 49ers at the Vikings. Don't want to waste the 49ers on the Vikings. No, and the Vikings are probably feeling fairly good about themselves. So are the 49ers. But the 49ers are a team that's supposed to be pretty good.

Without their main running back, too. Correct. And then what we're going to deal with here is you're going to be looking at the Vikings probably feeling great. The Vikings should get the shit kicked out of them, but I'm not going to mess with that to waste the 49ers there either. And we have the Buccaneers at the Lions. Lions at home. They had to go to overtime to win. Tampa feeling good.

Tampa's an underrated little team there. They're loving what they got down there. Who am I drawing? Baker. I'm not interested in that one either. Okay. Then we've got the Seahawks at the Patriots, which we kind of. Seahawks.

I think that's the opportunity to take a team like the Seahawks. It's a perfect scenario. Obviously, the Seahawks won, too. But the Patriots, who had to go on the road, Cincinnati. Was that Cincinnati, right? So they had to go on the road and get a win. I mean, it's a perfect storm for them to come home and get their asses kicked by someone. Yes, Seattle's got a lot of travel there.

What's the spread in that game? The spread in that one is, let's see, three and a half point favorites are Seattle. Again, Patriots, until proven otherwise, I don't care what it was they had and what they did in that game. Like, look, it was a fluke. The Bengals, I mean, awful, okay? Panthers and New England is still where we trend towards taking them to lose if it makes sense. And taking Seattle in that scenario I think makes a lot of sense.

What we want is late in the year to have really good teams still available to us. I think Seattle's a middling type team that could make the playoffs. New England stinks. We want to take teams playing New England. We want to take teams playing Carolina if it makes sense. And I think this week it may. What else we got? We got the Jets at the Titans.

The Titans are a three and a half point home underdog. Jets may not be a bad one here either. The Titans are probably going to go on that list of really shitty teams too. You got a week with A-Rodge playing with these dudes. They had moments where they looked really good offensively and other times where they couldn't get one fucking yard and they couldn't get one.

First of all, they got screwed on the first down. They should have had a first down. They didn't review it. Then they were out of bounds on the other one that they did review. And then for the love of Christ, if they get one yard down 16, Aaron Rodgers stays in the game, probably throws a little bit more. And I get the 60 more yards I needed to get a passing yardage over. But I know you have your own problems. That's not a bad situation there for us either because I do think the Jets are going to be okay now defensively they got throttled by

backup running back dude goes for a buck 50 that said the Titans are a disgrace they blew a game to a team that's probably the team that 93 passing yards so let's put the jets in there as well jets are a possibility again we don't want to waste teams like that but they're a possibility then we have the browns at jaguars browns are probably terrible too and the jaguars are coming home they need a win they lost last week too yeah i going to pass on that game for now. Okay. Then we've got the Giants at Commanders. Oh, dear. You know what? This is a good opportunity to take the Commanders,

because I don't think we're going to have too many opportunities to do that. You've got to circle these guys, okay? Because that means the Commanders still have to play the Eagles twice. They've got to play the Cowboys twice. That's four of their remaining 16 games. Yeah, I guess you have to look to see if the commanders play the Panthers at all or the Patriots. If they don't play the Panthers or the Patriots.

Well, again, they'll play the Giants again, but this is having them at home. So I feel like if we're going to go with them, maybe this is the time. I'd say that the Giants on the road taking the Commanders is probably a solid play there. I'd say that they are in consideration. Let me look at the rest of their schedule and see where I see opportunities. They play the Browns. They play the Bears still. But I think the Bears are going to be better.

I don't know why I feel this way, but I do. They also play the Titans, but they don't play the Panthers, and they don't play the Patriots. So this might be our best opportunity with shitty – wait, what are we looking at here? Oh, they do play the Panthers. They do play the Panthers. Okay.

You know what? Then we don't play the Commanders this week. They play the Panthers at home. Okay. You act like the Giants are better than the Panthers, are they? I think they might be, but I'm not sure. Again, my rule right now is whoever

is playing the Panthers or whoever is playing, I still think the Patriots would fall into that category as well. Maybe the Titans. I'm going to skip that if I could have if a team's playing the Panthers until proven otherwise, I'm riding with them that if I could have. If a team's playing the Panthers, until proven otherwise, I'm riding with them when they play that team, if I can.

Okay, now we have the Rams at the Cardinals. The Rams are underdogs in this one. And the Cardinals blew one. You know what? This is a decent opportunity to take the Rams, too, just looking at a situation that we're in, because you've got the Rams coming off an overtime loss. Now, Pukunukuwa is out for at least four weeks.

That's substantial. But what happened in this game against the Lions? He rediscovered Cooper Cup, who had like 115 receiving yards and some tuds. And the Cardinals, they blew their game, right? I didn't see a ton of that, but I know they were up, and then they blew it essentially, I believe, in they were playing the bills and the bills were down huge like 14 nothing or something and came back i just haven't watched a ton of that um i would say the rams are a possibility but do the rams play the panthers anyway what's next bangles at chiefs

okay yeah i'm not fucking with that nope not. Because the Bengals look broken at this point and the Chiefs should kick their ass, but it could be a game where Joey B, they show up at home. I don't know, but not fucking with it. Steelers at Broncos. This could be an opportunity to take the Steelers, although

I said the Steelers would win week one and they did. I just think TJ Watt's going to just destroy Bo. Probably. And we said this about Bo in the Prop Tia drop. I said that he'd throw a pick. He did, and he wasn't great. I'll pass on that one for now.

Then we have the Bears and the Texans. We're not wasting the Texans on that one. Then we have Monday night, the Falcons and the Eagles. Yeah, I'm not messing with that one. So what it comes down to then is we're looking at, who's playing the Panthers again? The Chargers. Okay, we're taking the Chargers,

because I don't think the Chargers are going to be particularly good, so let's take them when they get the Panthers. Panthers clearly stink. And that's at the Panthers? Yes. So they do have to go on the road. That's a lot of travel for them. But do Bryce Young.

They're all so fucking bad it's hard not to. I don't know. Unless it's a trap like that Bengals spread last week was one of the highest of the weeks. I think it was the highest of the week. And this one is plus six and a half for the Chargers favorite on the road. But here's the good news for the Chargers. They're an indoor team but they're going to Carolina in September

so they're not dealing with elements. Now I don't know what the weather situation is either. I guess we should look that up too. I don't know about rain or whatever. It's not going to be in September, so they're not dealing with elements. Now, I don't know what the weather situation is either. I guess we should look that up too. I don't know about rain or whatever. It's not going to be cold, presumably. I mean, it's Carolina. It's South Carolina. It's essentially the South in September.

So I don't think it's going to be terrible weather-wise unless this hurricane does something to it, which I don't think it's going anywhere near there. So that's not going to be an issue. There's a 40% chance for rain Sunday. All right, well, rain is rain, but I'm leaning towards Chargers. So that's not going to be an issue. It's a 40% chance for rain Sunday. All right. Well, rain is rain, but I'm leaning towards Chargers.

Okay. So whoever's playing the Panthers and who's playing the Patriots? They are. Is it the Packers you said? No. No, the Packers and the Colts are playing. You thought about the Colts. I thought about the Colts. The Patriots are hosting the Seahawks in their home opener.

And here's the issue here. I'm looking at two teams having to travel to come play on the East Coast, so that's an issue. However, New England is coming off a big win with a rookie head coach. Everyone's thinking, hey, maybe they're not as bad as they were supposed to be. But they are. The spread was six in that game too, right? Three and a half. Like, dude, maybe I have to divide the two West teams coming East. So maybe I have to just go with one of them.

And look, this is a good opportunity to go against the Patriots because I think they fucking suck. But at this point, I know that Carolinaolina sucks there's nothing good about carolina and i don't think the chargers are that good either i'm taking chargers for one of them no doubt one of them and the commanders who are the commanders playing the giants but as we discussed they're also playing the panthers later in the year the other one you were playing with was the colts at the packers who we assume Malik Willis will start. And then, of course, the Jets at the Titans. I'm taking Colts.

We're going Colts, and we're going Chargers. And we're going to send these on. Now, again, it's a risk because I get it. But I'm feeling fairly confident about this right now. We're going to go Colts, and we're going to go Chargers, and we're going to send those to Allie. I can't take it back. You're going to lock that in.

I'm going to lock that in for Allie, okay? I'm locking it in. So, Allie, here's what we're going to get, and you're going to look brilliant. Colts, Chargers, because the Colts are coming off a loss. Yes, they're going on the road to Green Bay. Green Bay just lost their quarterback. They are starting Malik. They're not even putting love on the IR, so they're not signing anybody.

Malik sucks. So this is how we're going to roll. We're going to do that. We're going to go Colts, Chargers for our picks. All we've got to do is hit one, and we stay alive. I think we're going to hit both. That's our picks for Allie. Colts.

Text her now. Text her, and it makes it official. Colts. And the other one I said. Chargers. There we go. I lost my train of thought. King of Queens was on TV, and Doug is bowling, so I lost my train of thought.

All right. There you go. And whatever your suicide or knockout pool is, those are the two that I suggest, and we'll see you.