The Josh Innes Show - Weekend NFL Preview/Guess The Lines

Episode Date: December 12, 2025

Let's look at this weekends NFL Matchups. It's a massive weekend for my season bets as well. Can the Eagles find the mojo? Can the Lions pull off the upset in LA? Can the Bears avoid the upset? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Let's start guessing some of the spreads for this weekend. I have not looked at any of these yet, but last night I got screwed good by Tampa. I got a bet $35 on a preseason bet for multiple teams to exceed a certain number of wins. And I've told you guys about this every week. As it stands right now, I need one more win from Pittsburgh and I need one more win from the Texans. And I need two more wins from Tampa. Tampa in the last two weeks has lost to the Saints who are terrible. and the Falcons who are terrible.

And in this week, they just blew a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter to the shitty Falcons. This is my life right now. This is what I deal with now. This is, like, I should be set with this. Like, I feel pretty confident that I could find one more win from the Steelers and one more win from the Texans. But here I am getting bent over by Todd Bowles and the shitty Tampa Bay Bucks who've been shit for Base two months. F these guys. So now I need to find two wins from them. Now they face Carolina twice in the year. The thing is, Carolina's right there battling for the division.

Anywho. Oh, actually, I take that back. I don't need a Texans win. I need a Lions win. So I need one more win from the Lions, one more win from the Steelers, and two from Tampa to turn $35 into $530. And I'm getting bent over right now. Let's play a couple of commercials and we'll continue. Before we start looking at the spreads, let's play audio of Todd Bowles. Now, Todd Bowles, of course, is the coach of the Tampa Bucks, and he had the most level-headed rant ever. Guy said fuck like seven times all this shit. But it was the most level-headed stone-cold rant.

It's not like a, you know, like a didly poo rant, you know, like we let them off the hook. They are who we thought they were. This dude was just even keel the whole time and was a fucking assassin. I want to thank the Lord. I want to thank Coach Hart. Wait, that's the wrong audio. Hold on. That was Sharon Moore.

Meanwhile, back in the audio, let's see here. Hold on. Oh, oh, oh, is this it? There it is. My bad. I take it back. I take it back. All right, this is audio of Todd Bowles being extremely level-headed in his post-game rant

while also delivering seven fucks and some, and just you listen. It's inexcusable. You don't make excuses. We, you got a f*** care enough where the shit hurts. You got to f*** care enough where the shit hurts. It got to fucking mean something to you. It's more than a job. It's your fucking livelihood.

How well do you know your job? How well can you do your job? Well, you can't sugarcoat it. It was in the fiend excusable and there's no answer for it. It has for no excuse for it. That's what you tell them in a lot. I'm looking in the f***ing error. I think my favorite thing in there was it was inex fucking excusable.

In a fucking excusable. Like, that is the most level-headed rant. Because generally speaking, when someone rants in a post game, they lose their fucking man. Like, I'm a man. I'm 40. Like, that type of shit. That was just stone-cold assassin shit from a coach who's probably going to get fired if they missed the playoffs. Because they had a huge lead in this division.

This division is terrible. The buck should have rode away with this division last month. Now, they've let Carolina back into it. And Carolina's got a game this weekend. where Carolina, they are facing the Saints, so they have a chance to win, and they'll end up in freaking first place. Tampa, you pieces of shit. Your coach is right.

Your coach is speaking what I feel about you, losers. It's inexcusable. You don't make excuses. You got to f***re enough where the shit hurts. You got to f***er enough where the shit hurts. It's got to fucking mean something to you. It's more than a job. It's your fucking livelihood.

How well do you know your job? How well can you do your job? Well, you can't sugar a coat. It was in the fiend excusable, and there's no answer for it. It has no excuse for it. That's what you tell them in the locker. I'm looking at a f***er. I feel like I'm going to get that first of two wins next week.

All right, let's look at some of the spreads. Obviously, Atlanta rallied and beat Tampa 2928 yesterday. Let's see. Cleveland's at Chicago. I'm going to say that Chicago at home is favored by six and a half. The answer is seven and a half. I need the bears to start losing. You guys know this.

I've got the parlay with the lions. I need, you know, five, six hundred more passing yards from Jared Gough. I think I need like a hundred more receiving yards from Amman Ross, St. Brown. And then I need the lions to make the playoffs. How are the lions going to make the playoffs? The best route to take would be to get the last wild card spot over Chicago. Chicago currently has it. The good news is, and yes, Chicago plays Cleveland a game they should win this.

weekend. And realistically, I think the Lions are not going to go to L.A. and beat the Rams. So they're going to set them back a little bit. But here's the good news. With three games left, you've got winnable games all over the schedule, right? If you're the Lions, you've got the Steelers are on the schedule, the Vikings are on the schedule, and you end the season with the Bears. The Bears still have a matchup looming with Green Bay, and they've got San Francisco still on the schedule after this week as well, on top of facing the Lions. The lions are very much alive. I don't think the lions are that great. They've kind of fallen off a cliff a little bit. But I think what we're doing right now is saying they've got a realistic

shot even with the loss this weekend. Now, if somehow we can get an upset from either the lions upsetting the Rams or the Browns upsetting Chicago, that's even better. But we shall see. All right. So I'm going to take, I think Cleveland's going to cover that for some reason. I don't know why. But I do. Their defense is stout. We know their defense is stout. The Bears' offense has moments, but it's not exactly a juggernaut. I could see a scenario where Cleveland keeps it close. And if nothing else, they'll be down like they were last week,

and Schederl throw it for a shit ton of yards in the fourth quarter, and everybody will blow them because, oh, wow, look how close they made the game, and that's probably what you'll deal with. Baltimore is at Cincinnati. I am going to guess that Baltimore is favored by two and a half. They are favored by exactly two and a half. I don't, look, I don't know how I'm able to do this. Not every one of these is dead on.

Oh, lost the mic there. Not everything here is dead on balls accurate, but I'm pretty good. I know I'm starting to sound like Scott Ennis when I do this shit. But a lot of these I'm pretty close on. And here's what I think's going to happen. I don't know why I feel this way. Because Cincinnati season is over and Joe Burrow, I don't know if you saw the press conference with Joe Burrow yesterday,

where people are like, is Joe Burrow okay, basically intimating that he just doesn't have fun playing football anymore. The Bengals have zapped the life out of this man. If there's ever a time that Joe Burrow is going to come out and sling and ball out, it might be the day after the guy looked like he just wanted to hang himself. So I actually think that Cincinnati at home is going to beat Baltimore. Lamar sucks this year. The defense isn't very good for Baltimore. I think Cincinnati at home will end up winning that game as an underdog.

Let's see, the Chargers are at Kansas City. It's going to sound weird, but Kansas City is going to be favored in this game by two and a half. They're favored by five and a half. Holy shit. Like, how? I understand they're desperate, but they were desperate against the Texans at home and lost. I mean, the Chargers have their issues as well. They have offensive line issues.

The Chargers are flawed. And I get that the season's on the line for the Chiefs and its must-win territory, but it was must-win last week against the Texans, and they lost it home to the Texans. Couldn't move the ball against the Texans. Chargers defense is not as good as the Texans. But look at the weapons the Chargers have. Quarterback play the Chargers have.

The Chargers have better. weapons and better quarterback play than the Texans do. Offensive lines an issue, defense isn't as good. I think the Chargers very well can go there. At some point, we have to acknowledge that the Chiefs are done this year. They ain't making the playoffs. Every time we all say, look out, the Chiefs are due to win. They're desperate.

They're not doing it. Every time we say that about the Chiefs, oh, they're desperate. Look out. And then they lose. Buffalo is at New England? I'm going to say that Buffalo is still going to be favorite in that game and they're going to be favored by a point in a half. They're favored by exactly a point in a half. Whatever, man. I don't know. I win one, I lose one. Whatever.

Point in a half. So, and I don't think Buffalo's good either. Josh Allen's obviously good. He has no weapons. Like, I'm not trying to make excuses for the dude. Imagine if they gave this guy anyone. If he had one elite receiver, if he had a Mike Evans that could go up and go get it, If he had, you know, find a team's second or third best. Like, think of a team that's got a couple of good receivers. If he had a T. Higgins, imagine what he could do. Because the guy he has are a bunch of little gadgety type guys that catch short shit and go for long distances. He has Gabe Davis guys like that.

But, like, he didn't have these dudes. He has a tight end that's pretty good. And that's it. He's got King Cade who's pretty good. They can run the ball pretty well. I don't buy them at all. And this is going to be the biggest disappointing year ever for them because Mahomes and companies stink to the point. They're not going to be in the playoffs.

And Buffalo still isn't going to win the whole damn thing. This is ridiculous. I'm not writing off the Texans winning the whole thing at this point. I don't believe New England's going to do it. I don't believe Buffalo is going to do it. Washington is at the Giants. I am going to say that the Giants are favored by a point. The Giants are favored by two and a half.

Washington's a mess. And obviously their quarterback situation is a mess as well. This is just a game that stinks. Who cares? The Raiders are at the Eagles. Now, the Raiders are my, or the Eagles, rather are my team where I say, look out, they're going to beat the shit out of somebody. If they're ever going to beat the shit out of somebody and throw it for 350 yards and look

like a unit on offense, then this would have to be the week because the Raiders are a disaster. They're not really good at anything. Now, we know that the Eagles offense is dreadful. We know that all the talk this week has been about the quarterback play. I get all that. The Eagles are still going to be favored by probably 10 points in this game. Nine and a half. I'm going to go Eagles, nine and a half, maybe eight and a half, but I'm going to go nine and a half Eagles, 11 and a half.

They are still a gigantic favorite. Part of that's because the Raiders are a disgrace, and part of that is because the Eagles still have talent. They're still the defending Super Bowl champions, and even as bad as things have been, they're an eight-win team that leads their division and should have a home playoff game. So maybe this is the week they, again, I'm never going to say figure it out. There is no figure it out for the Eagles. There's no magical elixir. And by figured out, I mean, they're not going to rattle off five, six games in a row where their offense is just a juggernaut.

And then they're in the NFC championship game. They may get there. I don't think they will. But they may get there. But it's not going to be because they, quote, unquote, figured it out offensively. They're going to get there because, you know, they just rode the defense, got a couple of turnovers, blocked a kick or something. But the offense is never going to figure it out. But in spurts, you can.

And I think against the shitty Raiders, this would be the time to do it. So I think they're going to smoke the Raiders. the Jets at Jacksonville Jacksonville is going to be favored by a six and a half 13 and a half No fan Look I'm not saying the Jets are going to win the game

That is the most off I've been I think they're just giving Jacksonville Way too much fucking credit Like it maybe I don't even know if it's credit to Jacksonville Or if it's just the Jets are an absolute mess Which they are It could be a situation where they just don't believe The Jets are going to be able to score

And maybe that's that This could be, you know, 20 to 3, and they cover that spread easily. It won't be because, you know, Jacksonville is a unit or anything like that. But I don't know, man. I still think the Jets can play a little bit of defense there. And the Jets aren't going to win. But, I mean, like, if you look at the games they've played, like, they beat the Falcons in a close game. They got smoked last week by the Dolphins.

I get that. Like, they haven't been particularly good. We know they're not particularly good. We know they have issues. But still, it's like, I don't know. I don't know. Like, I don't buy Jacksonville. The Texans are eventually going to usurp Jacksonville, and they're going to usurp the Colts. Arizona is at Houston. The Texans are going to be favored by, see, they have offensive issues, but their defense is so despicable. And even though I like the Cardinals, like the Cardinals have moments where offensively they look good, and they'll put up a ton of stats against people, although this will not be a game. They do that.

Like, I don't think this is going to be a big empty calories game for Arizona. And they have a lot of those where at the end of the day, they lose by 20, but the quarterback, throws for 310 and three touchdowns, and they lose 42 to 20. The Texans are going to be favored by nine and a half. No, I'm going double digits. I think people are riding them right now. They're giving them a lot of credit. They're at home. Their defense is just shutting cats out, holding them to like 10 points.

I think they're going to look at this and assume that Arizona is going to score between 10 and 14. And I think they're going to look at the Texans scoring between 23 and 26. So I'm going to say that the Texans are favored by 11 and a half, by 9 and a half. I guess my first inclination was right. But that's mostly due to the fact that the Texans can't score. And I've said this multiple times. If the Texans had any form of offense, if their offense had any pulse and any consistency, they would win the Super Bowl.

They'd at least be in the Super Bowl. Because I look around the AFC and I see no team that's like super scary. And if the Texans find the right matchups and shut some dudes down and can win a 17 to 14. 17 to 10 game, they can win a couple. I believe in them at this point, but they also don't have the offense to do that. And I just don't think they're going to be able to score enough to get to where they need to go. But they are going to make the playoffs, just going to be a matter of whether or not they play at home or not. Green Bay is at Denver.

Green Bay is going to be favored in that game, is my hot take. I think Green Bay is going to be favored by a decent number, too. I'm going to say Green Bay minus three and a half on the road at Denver. two and a half. Okay. Green Bay is a better team. I think big picture Green Bay has got a better quarterback, although he's not special by any means or hasn't been, but I think he's better. I don't really like Green Bay's weapons. I really hate, I just don't like Denver at all. I think their defense is pretty solid, but Denver, like I think people get caught up in Denver being where they are record-wise, but if you kind of unpack how they got to where they got, or especially early in the year, they had a large number of games that came down to, you know, not miracles, but big time comebacks and things that really had to work out for them in the fourth quarter. And yeah, they won those games and more power to them, but I don't buy them. So I think Green Bay could go on the road and win that. And I hope they do, because I just want Green Bay to run away with the NFC North.

So it comes down to the Bears and the Lions for that other wildcard spot. Detroit is at L.A. I'm going to say that L.A. is favored by four and a half, which is low because I think they are a better team. I think defensively they are better. I think offensively they are better. The Eagles are not the Eagles, but the Lions are dealing with some issues. They just lost Brian Branch, so they have injury problems. Their offensive line is a problem.

So I think they're going to go up there and get whipped. I think there's a very good possibility that maybe the final score doesn't look like they got whipped. They may lose by 10. But I think it's going to be one of those games where the whole game, you know that they're not really in it. Then somehow they'll have it late and have a chance to do something, but somehow we'll lose by 10. So I'm going to say Chargers, I think the Lions will get too much. credit. I'm going to say four and a half or five, six. Okay, so it's six. That's a relatively large number for a team like the Lions, but I think Los Angeles is going to be

by 10, 13 points. Carolina's at New Orleans. You know, it's funny is I wouldn't doubt that the Saints aren't like, they're at home. They've played tough in a couple games. They won one against Tampa last week. They've beaten Carolina already. They're at home. Shuck's been playing pretty well. I think the Saints are going to be favored. Not by much. And if they may be a point and a half to two point underdog, I think the Saints are favored by a point, point and a half,

somewhere in that neighborhood. Carolina by two and a half, that's fine, whatever. I think the Saints could win. Saints just keep on win. I'm glad I didn't take the Saints under four wins because I'd really be sweating this last month of the year. Carolina may end up winning that division, but hopefully when they play Tampa twice, they just lose to Tampa twice. Hopefully they start to realize who they actually are and lose a couple, and Tampa wins a couple, and I win my bet.

Let's see, Tennessee is at San Francisco. San Francisco is a team I don't buy either, and they're a team that are kind of hanging around for that wild card spot, too, that I need the Lions to get. I think when it's all said and done here, so I think it's going to play out in the NFC for what it's worth. I think all three teams from the West are going to get in. I think both the Lions and the 49ers are going to beat. The Lions, 49ers, and Packers are all going to beat the Bears down the stretch. I think the Lions are going to win just enough to get in as the seven. So I think the Lions are going to be the seven.

The 49ers are going to be the six. The, who is that leaving the West or the, I'll see, who am I missing? So I got the two teams from the north, right? So I've got, well, the Packers are going to win the division. The Bucks are going to win the division and hopefully do it with two more wins. Thank you. The Rams are going to win the west and the Eagles are going to win the east. There isn't going to be a wild card, obviously, out of the east, and there isn't going to be one out of the south.

So you're going to be staring down the barrel here at the three wild card spots belonging to Seattle, San Francisco. The lions. I think the bears are going to get left out. And a lot of that is wishful thinking because if the bears blow it and the lions get in, I win my bet. They would win $900. Really, this last month, there's about $400 on the line for a grand total of like $120 in bets. And they're realistic to hit. So we'll see. But San Francisco, back to the 49ers against Tennessee, they'll be favored by 13.5. 12 and a half, okay. Colts at Seattle. Seattle's going to be a major favorite in this game. I don't care about Fat Philip, although I'm interested, but I don't care. Seattle at home is going to be favored by double. No, I can't go to double digits in this. Eight and a half. Nope, I was right the first time, 13 and a half. The Colts are like in first place in the South, and they're a 13.5 point road dog. And then Minnesota's at Dallas. Dallas will be a really big favorite in that one. Dallas is going to be favored by close to 10 against them, I would guess. I'm going to go nine and a half.

Five and a half. I get a lot of credit there. Minnesota is not good. And when I look back on when I'm going to miss that $1,000 victory for that Lions parlay, I'm going to look back at the fact that they lost to J.J. McCarthy, and I'm going to cry. And then Miami's at Pittsburgh. I need Pittsburgh to win that one to get that win. I'm going to take...

You know, Miami's won like, what, five in a row, and I don't buy Pittsburgh, but they're at home. Miami's on the road, cold weather, blah, blah, blah. Pittsburgh's going to be favored by two and a half, three. All right, there you go. So there are the spreads and some look-aheads for these games this weekend. I am Josh, hello, and we will get into more after these words.