The Josh Innes Show - Who Can Win The Super Bowl?

Episode Date: December 17, 2024

Well, now that the football week is officially over, let's take a look at the contenders and pretenders. First off, how terrible was the Monday Night Football doubleheader? My god. Kirk Cousins appears to be washed. Now we look around the league and decide who can actually win it all. If your life depended on it, would you take Josh Allen to beat Pat Mahomes? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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All righty. Jumokes, it's Josh, obviously. You know this because you're listening. So let's take a look around the NFL. So the week is officially done. We had Monday Night Football last night, two games. You couldn't have picked two worse football games. Like, hey, how can you make Monday night football great? Hey, let's put on two shitty games. If you put on two shitty teams with essentially three, it's two shitty

games with three of the four teams being super shitty. Maybe the power of the shittiness combined will turn a negative into a positive and you'll get two amazing games or one amazing game based on two shitty games. Well, as it turns out, like people were questioning and we'll start with the Atlanta game because this won't be a long conversation. People were questioning whether or not Kirk Cousins was washed or if maybe there was still a little juice left out, a little squeeze left in the lemon or the orange to make juice with Kirk Cousins. As it turns out, Cousins is washed.

He sucks, and I hate to say that because two months ago I would have told you that Kirk Cousins has an outside shot of winning the MVP. Kirk Cousins does not have an outside shot of winning the MVP. He has no shot of winning the MVP. I guess good for Atlanta because Atlanta stays around on the race with Tampa a little bit because of their win over shitty Vegas.

But dude, the Falcons suck. They've got great, fun playmakers, but Kirk is broken. I don't know if Kirk, if he gets healthy in the offseason, if he can come back and be a player or not, but Kirk Cousins has fallen off a mountain in the last two plus months. It's remarkable. I don't know that we've ever seen anything like it, like where you're just like, holy shit, this guy was great. I mean, he was slinging early. They're throwing 400 yards a game. He's out there doing it. And they barely squeak by Desmond Ritter and the Raiders. I mean, I made some live bets even on Kirk last night that were stupid. Like I look, I took one last shot on Kirk, and Kirk let me down in terms of gambling last night. He was terrible.

He is terrible. I like him, so I want him to be successful. But imagine you're Atlanta, and two and a half months ago, you got Kirk O'Chain, and he's swag surfing, and Atlanta loves Kirk Cousins. And it's a cute story because he's this doofus. He's like the white dad guy doofus that shops at Kohl's and it's like, ha ha, Kirk, and they're having a great time with him. Now they fucking hate this guy. He's terrible. And look, if they connect on that Hail Mary at the end of the game, they had two shots at a Hail Mary. If

one of those connects, Falcons are losers of six in a row at that point speaking of that look at the nfc south and what's interesting is you've got two teams that are either 500 or above which is shocking in that division considering that every team has had at least a four game losing streak in the nfc south saints being the top of the heap, but their seven-game losing streak. But you had a seven-game losing streak, I believe. I think you had a five-game losing streak from Carolina. You just had a five-game losing streak from Atlanta. And I think four was Tampa's longest losing streak so you're talking about an awful division but all that said I stand by this I don't believe Atlanta can win a playoff game I think

they'll get mangled by anybody they play if they get in I think Tampa can beat somebody because like a lot of people say defense travels and maybe you could stymie a team and win you know like 10 to 7 in today's NFL I find that hard to believe like I just don't believe you're going to roll out and beat somebody you know 9 to 6 in the playoffs like it's the Chiefs Colts 1996 10 to 7 type of game like I don't believe that's ever going to happen not that it couldn't happen not that it wouldn't happen I just don't believe that it is going to happen. I think your best bet to get into a fight with a team when you're an underdog in the playoffs is to go out and just sling. And one thing I think you can get out of Tampa is Tampa can go out and they can sling. They've got good weapons. You got Mike Evans back. And since he's gotten back, that offense has been fixed. Se Otten, when Otten gets going, he's a great weapon they have there.

Dwight and Bucky Irving are two running backs, both of whom can catch it out of the backfield but can be explosive. That's a solid team. And then you had McMillan doing what he was doing. So I think depending on the matchup, and who knows who they're going to face, you don't know how things are going to play out, they're going to get a home playoff game. And you want to tell me that a team like that

couldn't upset somebody in the first round playing at home? Baker's got that gunslinger mentality. Now, Baker could also throw four picks and the game will be over, but Baker's going to keep you in a game. Baker's going to sling. He's got weapons. Look, I'd be afraid of Tampa, at least in the first round. Like, I don't think a team like

Tampa is going to go out and beat an Eagles or somebody like that. But look at a team like the Lions right now. Obviously, the Lions could very realistically, I don't think it's going to happen, but the Lions could find themselves in a position where they go from division champs to being a wild card. And if you're a team like, and if you look at the way the wild cards are set up right now, let's say that you flip-flop Minnesota and Detroit. So let's say Minnesota wins that division, which is possible.

I think they play at the end of the year, last game of the year. So if you flip-flop Minnesota and Detroit, that means Detroit gets the five. They would take on, at this point point the Los Angeles Rams but it could work out where that ends up being Tampa if you have a Tampa Detroit first round game by the way hasn't Tampa beaten Detroit already this year yes so like what like if I'm uh Detroit I don't want to face especially with my defense being void of players. I just lost the muscle of my running game as well with Montgomery being out for the rest of the year. If you're Detroit, it's really imperative that you win and you may still not get the bye, but you need to win that division.

Because if I'm Detroit, as beat up as I am, do I want to face, I I mean the Rams can sling it against him you want to tell me the Rams with Puka and Cooper Cup couldn't move the ball against Detroit the way Detroit's defense is playing right now uh you want to tell me that that that uh Baker and the boys can't sling it up and down the field of course they could so if I'm Detroit like they've gone from being a lock like hey they're a Super Bowl team to oh shit they could lose to Tampa if they had to play them in the first round. They could lose. Of course, they could lose to the Packers. Really, I don't think Washington would beat them.

I think Washington's a fraud. Washington's doing exactly what we thought they'd do. They're beating the shitty teams they should beat. They're losing to the teams that are better than them. And that's kind of how it's gone. Really, ever since they faced the Eagles and the Eagles put it on them. They could have, should have, would have lost late to the Saints. If the Saints would have started Spencer Rattler instead of Jay Kaner,

I think there's a very good possibility that they would have lost that game outright. Saints defensively weren't bad, and they had one play to beat Washington. We'd be talking about Washington as an 8-6 team instead of 9-5, and then we'd be staring at a Seattle type. Or, you know what, now Atlanta kind of hangs around a little bit, but I think Atlanta's kind of out of sight, out of mind. Like, Seattle right now feels like the only team that has a legitimate shot of overtaking Washington. That was a huge win for Washington.

But Seattle still could. And look, if you got into a matchup where Seattle had to face Detroit in the playoffs, which I don't know that that's even possible, but Seattle and Detroit, I think Seattle could beat them. Like Geno, again, much like Baker, Geno could throw four picks and two of them could come in the end zone and that could cost you the game. But the way Detroit is playing defense right now, I would take an over in any playoff game that they're in.

And I think it's going to be a shootout and I could see green Bay. I could see Minnesota. Uh, although it wouldn't come down to that. There's no way they play in the first round, but it could come down to green Bay. It could come down to Minnesota. Actually there is a way I really green Bay or Minnesota and, uh, Detroit could play in the first round, I guess, because Detroit could fall down to the two seed. Now, then I guess it wouldn't work. So if Detroit still wins the division, but gets the two seed has to play a first round game

and Minnesota then falls to the to the what seven. Now that wouldn't work out. No, it's impossible. So Minnesota wouldn't play them, but we could get a Packers-Detroit first round game, right? Because the Packers are pretty much married into the six or the seven. Let's say they hold on and they are in the six. So they finish in the six. You get the four versus the five and the three versus the six.

So probably not, but you could get an interdivision matchup in the playoffs is what I'm saying. And any of those teams could beat Detroit. I was lockstep with Detroit being a no-doubt Super Bowl contender. I don't think they have the defense to do it right now. Let's just fast forward to later in the postseason, and let's say you've got the Eagles taking on Detroit. And let's say that game is in Philly. Let's say Detroit crumbles, and the Eagles end up taking over the number one seed,

and right now they're 12-2, both teams are, so it's possible. Let's say you're at Lincoln Financial field. It's the fourth quarter. You're down eight or nine points. If you're Detroit, you have to get the ball back. You want to tell me that the defense that you're playing right now would hold the Eagles in the fourth quarter where they just had an 11 and a half minute drive to ice a ball game. Like what's funny is I still don't believe in Jalen Hurts, and I don't really know, and I don't like Sirianni, but you can't dismiss what the Eagles are doing right now. That drive they put together at the end of the game was remarkable, and it is

impossible to beat teams when they can do that to you. And Detroit is not built to stop any of that right now because they are completely ravaged defensively. So it could be a situation like that. Like right now, you'd say the Eagles are the Super Bowl favorite in the NFC. But as much as they're the favorite, again, it's wild when you look at the quarterbacks in the NFC, by the way, isn't it? to be facing you've got Sam Darnold you've got uh you've got Baker Mayfield you've got all these guys uh that are kind of reclamation projects in these new spots you even have it in in in uh in Detroit in LA a rec like all of these guys who've been at other places for the most part like it's wild and um and if Gino gets, he'd fit into that category. So the NFC is crazy because of Detroit's injuries. I would have thought Detroit was clear-cut Super Bowl favorite. They are no longer clear-cut Super Bowl favorite. In fact, even in the odds, they have fallen below that now. So I know it's easy to say, but if the Eagles can control the

clock, and very rarely you're going to have an 11 and a half minute drive to ice a game especially against a good team like they did against um pittsburgh but if you can do that no one's going to beat you the key to beating the eagles is don't let them be up by any number of points late in the game or in the fourth quarter like if you're the rams and you've got Puka and if you face the Eagles in the playoffs, you've got to get out and you've got to get out early and you've got to put points on the board early. You've got to get them early and not let them get into a spot where they're up seven, eight,

nine points and can just run for three, four yards of pop. Eat the play clock. Do it again. Eat the play clock. Oh, it's third and one. Tush, push, bang. First down, 40 more seconds. Bleeds off the clock. You cannot be in that position. You're going to have to go out and sling and sling early because if they've got you and they've got the ball with a quarter to go and

they're beating you, they will beat you. The Eagles are not turning the ball over anymore. Jalen Hurts is not turning the ball over anymore. They just keep fucking winning. And part of it is because they have a dominant running game. And they did all that last week without Saquon Barkley doing dick. Probably really cost himself the MVP with only 62 yards. It's pretty cut and dry now that they're all fawning over Josh Allen. He's the MVP of the league now. So they did all that with their best player not really being a factor in the game. So that was remarkable. But if you look at the way it shapes out right now, I would say the Eagles are now the NFC favorite for the Super Bowl. Outside of that, any team that is listed in

the NFC may be outside of the commanders unless Jaden Daniels has a freakish game, which he can. He's a big game player. I just don't believe in them. But if you tell me Green Bay is going to make it to the Super Bowl, I'd say, okay. If you tell me the Vikings, I would kind of scoff because I still don't believe in Sam Darnold, but he's got weapons. And when he doesn't turn the ball over, which he has not been doing in the last handful of weeks, they can win. You want to tell me that Matt Stafford can't get hot for a game and win you a playoff game? Of course he can.

I think Tampa with the right matchup. I think Tampa would scare the shit out of people. Don't be fooled by the eight and six. So the NFC playoff wide open. Again, there's a clear cut top team right now. And it's the Eagles based on their health and based on the way they've been beating people. The Eagles are clear cut top team in the NFC, but it's open.

And if you tell me that they're down late in the game, I don't know if they're a rally and win type of team. I don't know. They're a good front runner. All right, let's play a couple commercials, start looking at the AFC side of things. All right, if you're ready to win some real cash during the basketball playoffs, you got to check out pick six from DraftKings. When it comes to basketball payouts, DraftKings pick six posterizes the competition, including prize picks. It's a very simple concept. Hit all your picks and score higher minimum payouts on pick six, plus even more cash if you outscore the competition.

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Voidware prohibited. One per new customer. Bonus awarded is non-withdrawable pick six credits that expire in 14 days. Limited time offer. See terms at picksix.draftkings.com slash com slash promos all right so you look at the afc and now um things kind of shake up a little bit because mahomes may not play it's a short week this game really means nothing to kansas city they have a two-game lead for the number one

seed over buffalo so i don't think they're gonna rush patrick mahomes if he truly is hurt and has a high ankle sprain the way they say he does i do not believe that they're going to rush Patrick Mahomes if he truly is hurt and has a high ankle sprain the way they say he does. I do not believe that they're going to rush him back for what turns out to be a pretty trivial game for both parties because the Chiefs have it locked up anyway. They've won the AFC West. The Texans have won the AFC South. There is an outside shot that the Texans could get the three considering that Pittsburgh lost this week.

There is a chance that you could end up in the three. But if you're the Texans, where would you rather be? If you're the four seed, currently you would take on Baltimore. But if Baltimore beats you, they're clearly in the fight. Well, that's an interesting spot, too, because you're going to face Baltimore coming up next week on a short week. So let's say the Texans beat the Chiefs, which if Mahomes doesn't play and you're facing

Wentz, let's say you're going to win that game. Let's hope you could win that game. It's on the road. Who knows? But let's say you win that game. So a team, Chiefs without Pat Mahomes taking on the Texans, who again, still not played well offensively, but they are what they are. So let's say you go on the road and you win that. You're 10-5. Then you face Baltimore next week. Look, you could end up in the three. It seemed like it was kind of out of the question at one point, but you could. So is the game still pretty trivial for the Texans?

Yes, but it is possible for them to climb to the three. And if you're the three right now, you would be facing Denver in the postseason. And look, the one thing you'd have going for you facing Denver is that Sean Payton finds creative ways to lose playoff games. He did it with fucking Drew Brees, the best quarterback he's ever going to have. So do I believe that if you're the Texans and you're facing Denver in a home playoff game that you couldn't beat them no I think you could you're facing a rookie quarterback you could should would beat them like you'd be favored to beat them at home it's also a game you could lose but if I'm looking at it from the Texans standpoint right now and they're probably going to get to face the

Chiefs without Pat Mahomes who do the Texans have the best chance of beating in a first round game there's not a team that I'd look at and say they couldn't beat them, but there's also not a team I'd look at and say, oh, they're clearly better than them. Like they're not clearly better than Denver. Denver's a nine and five football team playing in a much better division. I don't think Denver's that great, but you're not. I mean, are you better than them?

Maybe. Chargers if you've got healthy Justin Herbert the Chargers are really good offensively at least although they've been kind of skittish the last couple they've been a little iffy but you start looking around the league like I wouldn't circle any team Baltimore Denver Chargers those are the three teams that you have a shot to face in the playoffs like everything else is pretty set right unless Baltimore and Pittsburgh flip-flop which is also possible so you could face Pittsburgh in the playoffs at some point as well depending on how things work out so I think you could beat all of them but I don't know that I would take you to beat any of them it wasn't like last year when the Texans show up against the Browns and sling it against the Browns and you take on the Ravens and you're like,

I think they could be, I'm going, I think you'd be, like, I think they could show up in a first round home playoff game and lose to any of those teams or beat any of those teams. Let us not forget this team that we judge pretty harshly also beat the Buffalo Bills, who are the second best team in the AFC. Buffalo's gotten really hot since then, but that's one of those kind of scenarios. You know, the Chiefs are fascinating because they really aren't particularly good at much, but they're 13-1 and they find ways. And I know we've talked about this, but tell me if you believe that if Josh Allen, the MVP of the league, has to run into Patrick Mahomes again in the playoffs, do you believe that Buffalo will beat them? Would you bet

money? Would you take every dime you have? If it was life and death, you win this bet, you live, and you get the money. You lose, you die. They put a gun to your head, see you later, boom, so you're dead and broke and you shit your pants because you're dead. And you had to take either Pat Mahomes or Josh Allen to win that playoff game. Who are you taking? And for me, that matchup is the ultimate life and death gun to your head game because Patrick Mahomes is 13 and one this year. The Chiefs are seemingly not particularly good at much. You watch them and you don't find them that impressive and they keep squeaking by and they've got these one possession wins and all this. But they keep finding ways to do it.

I mean, they've been gifted a handful of wins. Game against the Bengals, gifted. Game against the Raiders, gifted. I mean, like they were given these wins on a silver platter. They could have four losses. They could have five losses. But all that said, they don't. And they have a coaching advantage over Buffalo, and they have a quarterback advantage over Buffalo. So when those two teams meet up in

the playoffs and there's a gun to your head and there's a cycle like an ISIS-ass motherfucker, he's got a gun and a knife. He's got a gigantic hunter's knife to your neck. You've got a bag over your head and it's being filmed for the dark web. And you have to say, I'm taking Josh Allen or I'm taking Patrick Mahomes to win a playoff game. Who are you taking? And the answer is you're taking Patrick Mahomes because until proven otherwise, Josh Allen is a playoff loser. There's no way anybody would take Josh Allen. Give him the MVP if you want. When it comes to a playoff game, which will more than likely be played at Arrowhead Stadium, no one's taking Josh Allen to win that game. So it's one of those things where the Chiefs are the favorite in that conference, and you'd say good, but it's also kind of wide open amongst the other teams. It doesn't feel the same as the NFC, but the way it's set up

right now, if the Texans played Baltimore, Baltimore's technically the wild card. Baltimore would be favored to win that game. Probably not handily, but I think even as a road team, they'd be favored by more than a field goal in that game. If you saw Pittsburgh take on Denver right now, it'd be in Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh would be favored. I don't know by how much, you know, maybe, and that also depends on George Pickens. I don't know by how much. And that also depends on George Pickens. I don't know if a player, a team is more dependent on a player that isn't a quarterback to really get them moving as the Steelers are for George Pickens. Again, we haven't had to really see the Eagles without Saquon. We haven't had to see the Vikings without Justin Jefferson. We haven't had to see the Bengals without Jamar Chase.

They're not a playoff team, but you get my point. But as far as teams in the AFC, players who are not quarterbacks and teams being really dependent on them for their success, I would argue George Pickens is certainly on that Mount Rushmore because look at what Pittsburgh has done offensively the last couple of weeks without Pickens. Pickens makes it go. He stretches the field.

Look, Rusty, who looked great the first handful of weeks he's been back, he's looked considerably worse without George Pickens. So they've got to get Pickens back. And if he's playing, I think they can beat anybody. If he's not playing, they will lose. I do not believe Pittsburgh will beat Baltimore. I don't believe Pittsburgh will beat Denver. And I don't think Pittsburgh will beat the Chargers.

The only way they would do it is they'd have an advantage if they won the division and they're playing at home and the Chargers have to come to the cold of Pittsburgh. Maybe. But Denver already plays in the cold. That doesn't impact them. Baltimore plays in the cold. That doesn't impact them. Baltimore plays in the cold. That doesn't bother them. But George Pickens is a huge, huge, huge piece of that.

And if you watch, like Russ has looked like dog shit without George Pickens. But yeah, so the AFC playoffs, again, gun to your head. Chiefs and Bills, it's the playoffs. It's healthy. Mahomes could be playing on a peg leg. They could have Patrick Mahomes with a peg leg and an eye patch in a playoff game. It's at home, and it's against Buffalo.

It's Andy Reid and a peg-legged, eye-patched, pirate-ass-looking Pat Mahomes versus Josh Allen and the Bills, and you would still take Pat Mahomes. Until proven otherwise. It must be proven. And at this point, it has not been proven that in a playoff situation with everything on the line, that Mahomes is going to blow this one to Josh Allen. So take your award.

They're blowing you because you're doing it without Stefan Diggs. And wow, you see what they're doing. Did you see the points they scored against Detroit? They locked all the shit. Great. I'm still taking Mahomes and it's truly not based on any sort of like real data other than Mahomes because Baltimore should Baltimore should have beaten them they lost by a pinky toe that's how effed up this year is man these what I mean they could have five or six more losses it It's bizarre.

But once it becomes January and you're in Arrowhead and you're facing playoff Josh Allen, I'm taking the Chiefs. So who are the teams that can win the Super Bowl right now? If you look around the AFC and the NFC, I don't know that I would put Detroit on there as they're currently constructed. I've had them at the top of that. I'm taking them out of the can win the Superbowl category. Cause I don't believe they can stop anybody. Eagles can win the Superbowl. Green Bay can win the Superbowl.

I would take Green Bay over Minnesota to win the Superbowl. I don't know why, but I feel like they're better than Minnesota, especially if Minnesota has to leave the confines of their stadium and play on the road. Like it's one thing to be playing a home playoff game in Minnesota. It's warm. It's nice. As it stands right now, Minnesota is the number five seed. Well, they would catch a break because they would face the Rams and the the Rams are dome as well. So take that for what it is. But what if Minnesota, like let's say Seattle ends up winning that division? Do they go on the road and beat Seattle?

They're better than Seattle. Could they beat Seattle? Sure. But are you going to take Sam Darnold on the road, loud environment in Seattle? I don't know. So I would still put Green Bay. I'd put the Eagles as teams that can win the Super Bowl. Kansas City.

And I guess I still have to ride with Baltimore. I don't know why I feel this way because I feel it's like the exact same thing. The same way I feel about Josh Allen is the same way I feel about Lamar. I feel like if they run into Pat Mahomes and they're playing Pat Mahomes and Arrowhead, you're still going to take them. I don't know that I think the Ravens can win the Super Bowl. That's the thing. I don't think that anybody in the AFC can win the Super Bowl that isn't the Chiefs because they don't have Mahomes, and it's not January in Arrowhead,

which it has to go through Arrowhead. I don't know that I believe any team in the AFC can win the Super Bowl other than Kansas City, and that includes 11-3 Buffalo. I don't know that I believe any team in the AFC can win the Super Bowl other than Kansas City and that includes 11 and 3 Buffalo I don't know that they can't but if I look around the NFC I would go okay there's probably three teams I think again I've written off Detroit because of the way they've played defensively but they can change my mind again they also are an advantage though because they can sling that's important it's one thing to have a shitty defense and not be able to match it with offense they at least have offense that can go tit for tat. That's why I think Tampa could upset somebody because they can score. But right now it's Philly, Green Bay. I don't believe in Minnesota.

And I think Tampa can upset somebody. And that's where we stand. There are not too many teams that I believe are true viable Super Bowl teams. There's a lot of teams that can win a playoff game. There's not a lot of Super Bowl contenders. Right now, I'd say Philly and Green Bay in the NFC. And Green Bay is going to have to go on the road. And then in the AFC, I would say Kansas City. It sounds ridiculous, but I do not believe the Bills are a Super Bowl contender. I don't believe it.

I don't believe Pittsburgh is, especially if George Pickens doesn't play. Texans are not a Super Bowl contender. So there we go. All right, more to come.