The Josh Innes Show - Why Are College Football Ratings Down?

Episode Date: January 23, 2025

The College Football Playoff ratings were down this year. The championship game was down 12% from last year. Why? I have a few thoughts. Plus, we compare NFL playoffs to the CFP. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The following was recorded from inside an ice plunge. Ah! Woo! Okay. All right. When a Coors Light is cold enough, the mountains on the can turn blue. So the next time you want a cold lager, cold filter, cold package Coors Light, just wait until those glorious mountains on the can turn blue.

It's easy to say that fast when you're freezing gold. All righty, kiddos. I was just reading a story about how the college football playoff national championship ratings were down. College football championship ratings fall by 12%. Let me read you some of this story here. Hold on, there's a KFC ad that popped up. Thanks, Pro Football Talk.

Now I want KFC. A little extra crispy. Although I prefer Popeyes. If we're ranking things, there's really nothing at KFC that I would prefer over Popeyes. I prefer the chicken at Popeye's, spicy. I prefer the mashed potatoes at Popeye's. I prefer the biscuits at Popeye's. The sides are all,

I'd say maybe the macaroni at KFC is pretty good. And also, you know, if you've listened for any period of time, my affinity for the delicious biscuits at churches. But other than that, there's no reason to get anything at churches. But back in my day, back when I worked in Houston, man, and we would do remotes, like I remember we'd be out like towards the NASA area or whatever, we'd do remotes out there. And I have a long drive home and I'd be stuck in traffic, you know, and I would just pop into a churches and get like either churches orye's and get like half a dozen biscuits and just be a glutton in the car. It's like 630. Traffic sucks. I'm on 45 or wherever the hell I

am. And I'm just I'm throwing them in like Scooby snacks one fucking bite. It's fantastic. But anyway, let's see here. The ratings down via Austin Karp of Sports Business Journal. Monday night's Ohio State Notre Dame game dropped by 12 percent over last year's game between Michigan and Washington. The total audience for the 2024 title game was twenty two point one million down from twenty five million for the 2003 championship the expanded college football championship resulted in five straight days of post-season action from thursday january 9th to monday january 13th the total audience for the nfl's wild card round dropped by 9.5 percent uh then came a three-day playoff weekend with two divisional round games and two on sunday the college football championship monday the audience dropped 8.5 here's the thing and And I saw like Clay Travis post about this and other

people post about this. And it's a fair to question. Why is this the case? Well, first off, you have to look at the type of games that many of these games were like, that is just an average, usually like the rating mixed with the total viewership, that is an average, right? So a lot of games will have a big tune in late in games and the number will spike when the game is close. How many college football playoff games this year were close? Not many of them. Really, the national championship game wasn't particularly close. And then the first half wasn't particularly interesting because Notre Dame sucked. So, and yes, Notre Dame made it close, relatively close, but that game was on the verge of being a three touchdown game late in the third quarter. It might've been even the

fourth quarter when the ball was punched out and Notre Dame got it back. So that people tune out of games like that. I think that's a factor. In the NFL, same thing happened. There was one good NFL playoff game the first weekend. Last weekend, both of the games, you had two good close games on Sunday. Saturday, that Chiefs game wasn't anything particularly good with the Texans, right? So you just start looking at some of these matchups, and you look at the games, and you realize that maybe too many teams are in the playoffs to begin with in all sports. The playoffs are what everybody wants, but then when teams get in that shouldn't be there, maybe it's not good. Now in the NFL, it's different because there are just some years, I guess, that there are just some teams that are just that good

and they'll beat the shit out of teams. But usually you'll see competitive NFL games because there's not a huge disparity between NFL teams. Like one might have Patrick Mahomes, one might have Lamar Jackson, but there are rarely situations where it's like, oh, here's Lamar Jackson versus some slapdick. It does happen. We saw with the Texans, one of the years the Texans won, they played the Raiders and the Raiders were without Derek Karfkot, who the hell started the game for him, but it was their third-string quarterback.

It happened to the Arizona Cardinals when Bruce was the coach, and they lost Carson Palmer. And I want to say Ryan Lindley started a playoff game for them. So that does happen on occasion. But for the most part, you're going to deal with teams that are pretty evenly matched. It's very rare that you see the kind of point spreads we've seen in the NFL in the playoffs this year too. Like there are teams that are seven, eight, nine point favorites in the playoffs. You're in the NFC championship and

AFC championship games. The NFC championship game is a six point spread. Like that's a huge number in the NFL. So the NFL, I don't know why the game sucks so much this year. I don't think there are too many teams in the playoffs in the NFL. It was just one of those weird years where there are a lot of blowouts and people will tune blowouts. They'll turn them off, right? That's what they do. Like, we're not interested in that.

We want tight games. And a lot of people will tune in late in games if they hear it's close. So, but as far as college goes, and it's a one-year thing, so maybe it's not fair to use one year as a true barometer or a true gauge of this. But as far as the college game goes, I think that in one year of this, we have kind of gotten the idea, at least through one year, that perhaps the people that were clamoring for more playoff teams, more playoff teams, more playoff teams. We want Cinderella's. We want March Madness. Maybe those people wanted something that wasn't really going to come to fruition. Like it was never going to work out. And a lot of people who've been opposed to the idea of 12 team, 15, 16, 25 team playoff, whatever people that have been opposed have said this for a long time. And the idea is

that in football, especially college football, it's a lot easier or a lot more difficult for a small school or a lesser talented school to step up and beat a big dog. In college, basketball can happen all the time because there's 400 Division I programs. And those Division I programs, you have, and this is obvious, but you have programs that, you know, like Butler built something special. Butler's not a huge university, but Butler is a school that builds itself and has built itself for 25 years on taking dudes that stay three or four years. They rarely leave early. And by the time they're three, four years into it, they're stacked,

and they can play with anybody. You get 22 year old men playing against 18 year old children. In a lot of instances in these tournaments, they might be super talented. They might be five-star dudes from scout.com, but you get them in a one game situation in basketball and the shots aren't falling. And that team from the small school from Norfolk State hits 33s and boom you lose and you can see that in the point spreads that you see a lot in the college basketball tournament like if you look at the seating in the college basketball tournament you'll go oh boy a 14 over a three that's an upset well tell me what the point spread was was it only three four five points

then it's not really that big of an upset and you get that in college basketball a lot and I get that they are trying to mimic that with putting more teams in a college football playoff, but let's not act like that's the main reason they want to do it. The main reason they want to do it is because of money. They want to make more money. They want to print money. That's how this whole thing works, right? So they're trying to find ways to exploit this and make money. And on one hand, actually, let me play a couple of commercials here and then we'll continue this because it is an interesting thing talking about whether or not there's too much football. Let's play these commercials and we'll continue.

All right, if you're ready to win some real cash during the basketball playoffs, you gotta check out Pick 6 from DraftKings. When it comes to basketball payouts, DraftKings Pick 6 posterizes the competition, including prize picks. It's a very simple concept. Hit all your picks and score higher minimum payouts on Pick 6, plus even more cash if you outscore the competition. Pick 6 is available in most states, including Missouri, California, Texas, Georgia, and more, and I absolutely love

it. Look, every night we're going to be having playoff basketball. Every night. So when you're sitting around and you might not have interest in a particular game, let's say you're a fan of a particular team, they're not playing that night, here's how you make it a little bit more fun for the other games. Build a little lineup there with pick six. It's really great. Me and my wife do it all the time so uh make sure you do it and new

players get 50 in pick six credits instantly on just a five dollar entry download the draft kings pick six app now and use code ennis that's my name i-n-n-e-s for new customers to play five dollars get 50 and pick six credits better payouts bigger, bigger wins, only with Pick 6 from DraftKings. The crown is yours. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Help is available for problem gambling. Call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org in Connecticut.

Must be 18+. Age and eligibility restrictions vary by jurisdiction. Pick six not available everywhere, including New York and Ontario. Voidware prohibited. One per new customer. Bonus awarded is non-withdrawable pick six credits that expire in 14 days. Limited time offer. See terms at pick6.draftkings.com slash promos. So as far as is, is there too much football? I'm a gambling guy. I like to bet money on games. I'm a degenerate, right? Uh, when I'm doing well, I'm only putting a couple of bets in on games. Last couple of weeks, I had been driving over to Illinois and putting in like 20 bets on each game. I'm almost guaranteed to not win anything

when I do that, but I'm like a degenerate for it. Like that's why I like to watch these games. So the idea of more football games isn't bad. I cleaned up during bowl season. Bowl games were great to bet on, right? They're easy. Usually you can find the teams that are interested versus those who are not interested and you can win some games that way and win money. So as someone who likes to watch football, it's good to know those games are there. But I also found myself when watching a lot of these games, not even the bowls. If you want to eliminate the non-playoff bowls, if you want to look at even the playoff bowls,

I'm like, I don't give a shit about this outside of the gambling aspect of it. Right. And I think that's a lot of people because college football is super regional. Right. And Southern people and certain Midwestern areas really get into college football. And then sporadically, you'll find like a Penn State who's kind of like an outlier in that world or a pit. They're into it, but they're not as big as Penn State, obviously. But a lot of it's Midwest and South, occasional West Coast, like a USC when USC is killing

it, Oregon, whatever. But for the most part, it's a very regional thing. I think that impacts ratings, too. But I think what's happened is what we found. Again, it's a one year sample, so you don't just write it off. But if you do, you do have to use the one year as a gauge and say, what did we learn from this one year? Is it possible that in the greed and the desire to make more money, trust me, the desire is not to see the little man win a playoff game. They don't give a shit

about that. They don't care if Indiana would have won a playoff game or Arizona State. They don't give a shit. They're there because more games equal more money equals bigger television deals. People get rich. That's all they care about. Follow the money. Nothing is about for the spirit of the game. Nothing is about camaraderie or any of that shit. It's money. M-O-N-E-Y, baby. That's why we do the things we do. So in the quest to make more money and give the people what they thought they wanted, which is more games, perhaps what we learned is that more games, while seemingly great, just means you're going to have more mismatches. Because what we do know, and I think this is fair to say after one year because it's

been the case forever, college athletics, but particularly college football, there are truly the haves and the have-nots. Ohio State won the national championship. Ohio State was famous for having this $20 million roster. Notre Dame does not have a $20 million roster. Indiana does not have a $20 million roster. Indiana does not have a $20 million roster. Texas can because Texas can spend the money. Georgia can spend the money.

LSU is getting to a point where they can spend the money. Florida can spend the money. Those schools, USC could probably spend the money. Ohio State obviously can. Michigan can. You notice anything about those schools that I mentioned in this new era that are going to be the teams that are the powers of this era?

They are the exact same teams that were powers in the previous era. They were the exact same teams that when it was just recruiting and under the table payments, they are the exact same teams and the exact same programs that were dominating then. Why? Because they are the haves. Indiana football is never going to be a have. Indiana football can get a quarterback and be good for a year, and maybe they'll be a solid, maybe they won't be the doormat they were historically,

like when Jerry DiNardo is the coach, but they're never going to be a power. It is impossible for Indiana football to be a power. And your argument could be, well, but all they got to do is get in. Yeah, all they did is got in and they got their asses waxed, just like they got their asses waxed when they played anybody of merit during the regular season. Just like when they got their asses waxed by Ohio State and held onto the ball for the last nine minutes of the game to try to make the score look closer than it was. What about SMU? Yeah, SMU's put a shit ton of money into their program. And there's a bunch of money in Dallas.

And SMU, for all of the money they spent, SMU can buy their way into the college football playoff. But at the end of it, you gotta have the horses. The haves have the horses. The Texases, the LSUs, the Ohio States, the Michigans, the Penn States, the big, even Penn State, like Penn State's cute and Penn State can win some games.

I don't consider Penn State to be a have. even Penn State, like Penn State's cute and Penn State can win some games. I don't consider Penn State to be a half. Like Penn State, they have money. But Penn State is one of those teams that, you know, generally speaking, they lose the big games. They win nine or 10 games. They lose the games that matter. And they're not really a true half. But that's what it is.

That's what we're looking at in college football. So everybody kind of had this mindset of boy, more teams is going to make it more dramatic. They forget that what makes, and they want to compare it to the NCAA basketball tournament, the NCAA basketball tournament works because the NCAA basketball tournament is essentially a two day event. It's Thursday and Friday. Really it's a four day event, but the first two days of it are the big ones.

We got all day non, brackets filled out. You're doing it from elementary school to the time you're in the office. It doesn't matter. I started betting on sports essentially when I started filling out basketball brackets that our PE coach would give us and the winner would get a candy bar.

That's where my gambling started, if you will. So you're doing that and you're locked in and there's a bracket. and how's my bracket doing? Let me go to yahoosports.com. Let me go to ESPN and check my bracket. Where do I rank everybody in the country? You can't do any of that. There's no fantasy football, I don't believe,

with college athletics. You can gamble, you can make prop bets and some states, some states, you can't even do that. Like in Illinois, actually, Illinois you can, but like in Louisiana, you can't do college athlete profits. So essentially all you had to do, there's no fantasy and there's no prop bets for college athletics. So what fun does the average person have to watch that? Now the argument would be, well, Josh, the same thing was the case last year. You couldn't bet on prop bets for certain guys in certain States last year either. Why was the rating higher? Well, the game may have been more interesting. Maybe people weren't

fatigued by a solid month of college football, and maybe they weren't burned out by the fact that most of the games in this new tournament that's supposed to revolutionize everything, that most games were fucking boring blowouts. That could be it. It could just be as simple as the game itself wasn't as good, and if it were more dramatic and a true back and forth and there's social media word of mouth about how good the game is and the average person might tune in, maybe the number would have been bigger. It could be as simple as that. But I think the bigger problem you're going to run into is we all love football

and we love to watch it. The NFL is about to go to an 18-game schedule. Do we really really need an 18 game schedule? Does it make the product better? No, I'd argue there's no way it's going to make it better. It's going to make the product worse by adding more games. And what happens if a team's locked in and you have potentially two or three weeks of games that don't matter for a team? Now, at least with the NFL, there's fantasy football and there's betting and there's prop bets. There's not going to be prop bets. So the NFL, like I prefer the regular season over the playoffs because there's more games to bet on. So I don't think that's going to hurt the NFL from that standpoint, but I do think the quality of the product may erode. And I don't believe that

the horrible play in this year's postseason was some sort of revelation, like that's going to be more of what we see. I think it all kind of balances out and maybe next year we'll have a bunch of epic playoff games. This year we didn't. It was what it was. But as far as the college football playoff goes, I don't know that that's what we're going to get because you're still going to get.

Now, what you might see, okay, because there's a committee and the people who are in this committee make these selections, right? These are people. These are humans. They are flawed. They have biases. What you might see, and there might be a little nudge, is you may outside looking in and they're like well we can put an SMU or a team from the you know the whatever conference or what I guess they're technically in the Atlantic Coast Conference now right there in

the ACC but like the American or something like that but like let's say like the ACC which basically sucks right like they'll look at a Miami and they'll go, yeah, I mean, it's the right thing to do to put in a school like Indiana, or it's the right thing to do to put in a school like SMU. Maybe next year after seeing these shitty games and maybe next year after seeing how the ratings kind of trickled down. And I think that's due in large part to a bunch of blowouts. People tune out of blowouts. And there were some traditional powers that weren't there. Bama not being there hurts. You'd certainly benefit from LSU, Bama, Miami, I think, over Indiana and SMU. So I think you're going to find yourself in a spot where next year, keep an eye on it. I know it's 11 months away, 10 months away, so it's a while. But pay attention to it next year. and let's see what this committee,

when you've got these committees of people that make these selections, let's see if they're more willing to say, let's take an Indiana who's a nontraditional power who had a nice little season, or are we going to take the team from the SEC because of ratings and because we want better games? And I think that's fair, and I think that's something you're probably going to have to keep an eye on for next year. But I wouldn't look at what we saw this year as the definitive resolution here.

We're not deciding here that the college football playoff blows and the system failed because of this one bad year. But if you continue to see that and and there continue to be blowouts, and people continue to tune out, and the ratings go down, then I think you'll see something. Anyway, more to come.