The Josh Innes Show - Will The Rockets Bounce Back?

Episode Date: April 23, 2025

First off, let's look at some of the NBA Series bets. Do we think the Celtics will sweep? What about the Thunder? Tonights games have some really appealing over/under plays. I think the Rockets have a major bounce back game tonight. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All right, so NBA playoffs. You got the Rockets tonight. We'll talk about that a little bit. I'm looking at DraftKings right now. Of course, you can download the pick six, the DraftKings pick six, and you can enjoy building these little fun lineups on there and maybe win some cold hard cash. How about that?

Just use the code Ennis when you sign up, I-N-N-E-S. I'm looking at the three games we have tonight. You got the Celtics and Magic. That's a waste of time. The Heat and Cavaliers, that's a waste of time. Rockets and Warriors tonight, that's at 830. And the Rockets are a three-point favorite. Before looking at some of these games tonight,

I want to go back and see if there's any value in taking the series bets in any of these. Like Orlando's not going to beat the Celtics in this series, so there's no point in taking whatever their series prop is. Magic can be competitive for a while. They're one of the better defensive teams in the league, but along with being one of the better defensive teams in the league, they're also one of the worst offensive scoring teams in the league,

whereas the Celtics go out and can hold you under 100 on any given night, and they can also go out and score 130 on any given night, and that's something that the Magic can't do. I think the Celtics beat the shit out of them tonight. I think that the Magic kind of gave them their best ride early in that game, and it was competitive, and even if they're able to keep it competitive for a while, you saw that Boston's got way too much firepower down the stretch. I think they're going to beat the shit out of them again. And I think over 10.5 I would do in that one. Cavs and Heat, I mean, those two series,

just the Heat and the Cavs and the Magic and the Celtics are just hard to have any interest in because the Cavaliers should beat the shit out of the Heat. Heat are well coached. And if they're hitting a bunch of threes, they got a shot against you. But other than that, it's not. And by the way, Cleveland's one of the better three-point shooting teams in the league as it relates to the number of threes they make per game. So you're going to have to go tit for tat with them there. There are some matchups where even though the team is better, there's some area where you go, all right, I think there's a chance.

If you look at a team that's a better team, but you're the better three-point shooting team, maybe you can have a night. That's kind of like what you run into with the Warriors, right? Like you look at the Warriors tonight, the Warriors are a much better three-point shooting team than the Rockets. They shoot at a much greater volume

in terms of the number of threes they attempt. They make somewhere in the neighborhood of like 14 threes a game on average during the regular season. So because of the fact they can shoot the three ball so well, it makes up for the fact that the Rockets, you could argue from a team perspective or a better team. That's why they are favored. That's why they were the number two seed. They were favored to win this game tonight. They're a three point favorite. And top to bottom, they're probably a better team than Golden State, although Golden State has Steph Curry and has Jimmy Butler.

But the difference, the thing that changes everything, is the three-point shooting of the Warriors. And the Warriors can drill a large number. The Rockets are not a team that can do that. Like on a given night, could they hit 15 threes? Maybe. Maybe that night's tonight. Maybe they make up for the six threes they hit in game one and go out and drill 15 and win this game running away the Rockets are

a better team the problem is Golden State if they hit 15 threes and you're hitting 10 that's a giant swing in the game if they're hitting 15 you're hitting seven or eight that's a huge swing in the game and that could be the difference not just in this game but in the series. I think the Rockets overall are better. It truly, to me, comes down to that. If it's an off night for Steph and the guys shooting threes, you're going to win. If they're hitting 15 or 16 threes, you're going to lose. That's the view I have on them because I don't see another avenue for them to do it. I don't think they have explosive enough offensive,

particularly from the perimeter, from the guard play, from the three-point shooting. But the Rockets are a three-point favorite tonight. You want to know the difference between the NBA regular season and the NBA postseason more so than any of them. And people talk about it all the time. Playoffs, it's a half-court game and blah, blah, blah. You hear that all the time. Like in Playoffs, it's a half-court game and blah, blah, blah. You hear that all the time. Like in the playoffs, it's a different animal.

Last night, neither team made it over 100 in the Timberwolves-Lakers game. The Timberwolves score like 115 a game during the regular season. Neither team gets over 100. The Memphis Grizzlies, who score about 120 a night during the regular season, haven't cracked 100 in the first two games of that series. And then you look at the over-unders. The Magic and Celtics over-under is 196. If this game were played in the regular season, where it's a little bit more free-flowing, it's not the tension of the playoffs, that number would probably at least be like 206, 207. You're talking about a 10-point

difference under 200 in a league where no one plays defense right 196 is the over under like how do you not take it how did like you look at a number it's 196 you look at that number and ask yourself how the hell can those teams not get a combined 196 points it's hard uh celtics and heat 2 the Warriors and Rockets, what was the score of game one, 95-85? 204 is the total. I do not anticipate the Rockets only scoring 85 points. And I also don't anticipate the Rockets holding Golden State to 95. So I'd probably jump in on 204 on that one as well. But I also don't take unders. I'm not an under guy.

I can't get myself to do that. But anyway, let's play a couple commercials and we'll continue. All right, if you're ready to win some real cash during the basketball playoffs, you got to check out Pick 6 from DraftKings. When it comes to basketball payouts, DraftKings Pick 6 posterizes the competition, including prize picks. It's a very simple concept. Hit all your picks and score higher minimum payouts on Pick 6, plus even more cash if

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Age and eligibility restrictions vary by jurisdiction. Pick six, not available everywhere, including New York and Ontario void where prohibited one per new customer bonus award. It is non-withdrawable pick six credits that expire in 14 days, limited time offer. See terms at pick six dot draft kings.com slash promos. All right. So look, I am, maybe I'm a sucker. I am an absolute sucker. I sat here and told you about the difference in the playoffs versus the regular season. And the number of games we're seeing much lower scoring than we're used to. But I think the Celtics and magic is an over at one 96. You got to count on the magic getting into probably the mid to upper eighties. And then you got to count on the Magic getting into probably the mid to upper 80s,

and then you got to count on the Celtics getting into the 110s, which I think they can do. I don't know. I think I'm taking that. I think I'm taking the over 196. But let's look at some of these series props, see if there's anything worth jumping in on in any of these. The Cavs are minus 4,000. That's obviously not going to do it. Just to win the series, mind you. Celtics minus 6,000. That's a waste.

Rockets plus 300 to win the series. 100 wins, 300 pays out 400. The Rockets are a home favorite tonight. If they win that, the series is even. Now, obviously, home court advantage has now swung to Golden State. But plus 300, like if you think they're going to win this game and then it becomes a five-game series, if they win this game tonight, then it becomes closer to an even money type series for them to win.

Maybe the Warriors are slightly favored since they'll have home court. If you think that the Rockets are going to come back and win the series, then you might as well just take it tonight. And if you think they're going to win tonight, I guess I should say, if you think they're winning tonight, you might as well take them to win the series. That's plus 300. Knicks and Pistons. Pistons are an intriguing one because they have a chance. They're coming back home. I believe this is the first playoff game they've played in Detroit. If you'll back home. I believe this is the first playoff game they've played in Detroit. If you'll believe this, I believe this is the first playoff game they've played in Detroit

since like 2008. So that place is going to be jacked up. It's going to be jammed. It's a coolest shit arena. If you've never been to the arena in Detroit, it's pretty cool. It's a nice place. It's relatively brand new. It's killer. But it's one thing to go in a meaningless regular season game with a bad team. It's another thing to go to a playoff game in a city that is a great sports town like Detroit for a team that has not won or played. I don't know if it's won or played in a playoff game at home since like 2008. They're playing against the Knicks, a team that everybody fucking hates because most people think they're the most overrated organization in all of sports. That place is going to be stupid. I think that let

me see if there's a spread for that. There should be. I wonder if they're favored. Let's see how that line looks. The Pistons are a one point dog in that game. I think I'm on that, man. Please and thank you. I'll take that right now um let's see i i would say the pistons like the pistons winning that game very likely and if they win that they might win the damn series so uh there there's value to be taken on them to win that series i don't know that i would but there is certainly value that's it plus two fifth to a five uh the thunder minus,000 to win the series against the Grizzlies. Your best bet is just like next game. I know the Grizzlies are at home, and this will be their best shot to beat them.

Grizzlies played a decent game for the most part, still lost by 20 to this team. They have been outscored by an average of like 18 points a game against them in the last 10 games they've played. I don't care that they're at home. I don't give a shit. The Grizzlies have shown the ability to quit in some of these games too. Not this last one. I think they actually could have quit and didn't.

But I would take minus eight and a half tomorrow. I guess that game's tomorrow or Friday. I would take the minus eight and a half for the Thunder. Even if the Grizzlies play their balls off and play well against the Thunder, which they've done before, they've had games where they've been down by two in the fourth quarter and still lost by 20 to these guys. They can't do it. Nuggets and Clippers, I still like the Clippers to win that series. They're minus 180. Pacers are minus 450 to beat the Bucks. And the Lakers are minus 115 to beat the Timberwolves, I'd still take the Lakers in that one as well.

Let me take a look at some of these lines really quick here from tomorrow even. So as I told you, I would take the Thunder. Actually, let's do this. Let's look at the series spreads. So let's look at series markets and spreads. So let's see, like the spread would be blank team wins by more than two games in the series.

So if you think, I think these are interesting. So if you believe that the magic, well, there's no value in this, I guess. Let me look at the, I want to find some value here for you guys on this on DraftKings. So yeah, okay, I don't like the spread in these because none of them are to sweep. Total games. Okay, let's do this. Series total games. The only one they have one up for right now is the Rockets and Warriors.

If you think it's going to go over five and a half games, which it will, that'll be minus 135. Exact games. Now, here we go. I would take plus 120 for the Celtics and Magic series to go four games. I think that's going to be a sweep. I would take the Thunder minus 185. There's no value there, but that series is going to be a sweep. But I know these are obvious. These are two nothing series, but I see no reason to believe the Grizzlies are going to win a game in that series. So those are the two like that's your best way to get a sweep can you parlay

those by chance let me see you can so for plus 238 basically you'd be playing not basically you would be playing for a celtic sweep and a thunder sweep so you get to plus almost 250 on that that's not bad right that's a pretty solid one so that's one i would pay attention to i don't know how many of you guys actually pay attention to the nba playoffs jilly really enjoys watching it she gets mad when i don't you want to talk about a weird home dynamic like in every sitcom tv show you've ever watched like king of queens there's like big fat oaf on the couch wants to watch sports wife wants to do whatever and i'm like hey do you think we can watch true crime instead of this celtics magic game like fuck no we can't it's the celtics and magic it's the playoffs but uh to me that's a solid play to take the sweep for the

celtics the the concern you always have is the the one home game right that first home game and the the spread is only think about this the grizzlies who've lost by 20 and 51 in this series the spread in that game is plus eight and a half or minus eight and a half for the Thunder I do not see a scenario unless John Morant plays his balls off and they hit 15 threes that they're going to win that game and as we noted I think they've lost 11 in a row now to Oklahoma City and it's by an average of over 17 points. Even if it doesn't hit, you'd be dumb to not try it, right?

So I would be, I'm all in favor of tomorrow whenever it's, is that game tomorrow? Yeah, that game tomorrow, I think you should jump all over it and just take a shot. Because even if the Grizzlies play their dicks off, they can have a competitive game against them and that's fine then late in the game like the Grizzlies always give up a handful of runs big runs not just like oh they're on a 10-0 run I'm talking like 22 to 2 type runs and before you

know it a game that's a four-point game going into the fourth quarter ends up a 17-point loss so I would circle that one on there as well. Also, Rockets tonight. I struggle because I don't think Golden State is good. as they did in game one. And even for as bad as things were, right, for six of 25 from three, Steph drops 31. They hit 13 threes in the game or whatever it was. You're down four with a minute plus to go. So it's not like you were mauled in that game. I think this game, you bounce back. I think, look, if the Rockets get into the 10 to 11 three-pointers range, they're going to win the game. That is unless Steph and the guys hit 20, which is possible.

But I think at home, I think they're the better overall team. They may not have the biggest star power names. They don't have the Jimmy Butler and the Steph and the Draymond. I think they're the overall better team they're coming off a loss they played very poorly offensively i do not see a scenario where you're going to have the rocket scoring 85 points again they're not explosive offensively they're not a great shooting team offensively there's i cannot foresee a scenario let me see what the rocket's team total is That's actually not a bad play either because they're not going to be held to 85 points again.

I get that they're a young team that has very little playoff experience, although they've got guys like Dylan Brooks has playoff experience. I get that. So does Fred Van Vliet. I get they've got dudes with experience, but their studs do not have that experience. So you come out game one, you're shaky, you don't play well. You're going to get a much better game from Jalen Green.

Let's see where they sit. Now, remember, the over-under is 204. What is the Rockets' team total in this game? Rockets' team total. That number is 103.5. Now, you're talking about a 20-point swing from game one to game two. Do you think they find 20 points? Well, Jalen Green's going to score 20. He's not going to have seven again. And if you get Jalen Green to 20 and you can get Van Vliet to hit three threes instead of

one or four instead of two, you're going to find those 20 points. So I kind of like the Rockets 104. I think they bounce back. And I think they, yep, I've convinced myself and talked myself into the Rockets rolling tonight. So we shall see. More to come.