The Journal. - Assad's Regime Falls. What's Next For Syria?

Episode Date: December 9, 2024

After decades of brutal dictatorship in Syria, the regime of Bashar al-Assad fell in a matter of days. WSJ’s Yaroslav Trofimov reports on the rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani and how regional players are responding to political change in Syria. Further Listening: - What the Ceasefire in Lebanon Means for the Middle East  - Ten Days That Shifted Power in Syria  Further Reading: - The 11-Day Blitz by Syrian Rebels That Ended 50 Years of Assad Rule  - Assad’s Downfall Marks a New Realignment in the Middle East  - How a Syrian Rebel Went From an American Jail to Seizing Aleppo  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Yesterday, in Syria, after nearly 13 years of civil war, rebel forces took control of the capital, Damascus. For decades, the country had been under the dictatorship of the Assad family. Here's our chief foreign affairs correspondent, Yaroslav Trofimov. Well, the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has collapsed in a matter of days, in an outstanding collapse, of a system that was built on murder, torture, brutality, and oppression that had few parallels in the modern world. So really this closes the chapter on some of the darkest periods

in the history of the Middle East. Footage showed Syrians celebrating in the streets, prisoners walking out of confinement, and residents standing on a toppled statue of Assad's father. At the same time, it remains unknown how the fall of Assad could reverberate across the Middle East and the world. What are the big questions you have today about the future of Syria? Well, the question is obviously what next?

There are two ways you can end it. You can either end in a relative peace with the rebels agreeing to basically cooperate and avoiding another round of civil war, or they could go at each other again and plunge the country into a new round of disaster. [♪ music playing on background Coming up on the show, a historic moment for Syria and a realignment of power in the Middle East. Your teen requested a ride, but this time not from you. It's through their Uber Teen account. It's an Uber account that allows your teen to request a ride

under your supervision with live trip tracking and highly rated drivers. Add your teen to your Uber account today. The largest of the rebel groups that stormed the Syrian capital over the weekend is called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, also known as HTS. The group's leader is Abu Mohammed al-Jolani. When did you first encounter the name Abu Mohammed al-Jolani? — He became reasonably well known about 10 years ago, when he was leading an affiliate of al-Qaeda called the Nusra Front. You know, as a young man in 2003, he boarded a bus from Damascus to Baghdad

and became an insurgent against American forces in Iraq at the time. There he joined the nascent Islamic State. — Jolani later returned to his homeland, Syria, with the blessing of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Jolani's mission was to establish ISIS there. — But then once in Syria, he broke with al-Baghdadi because he didn't share some of his murderous ideas, such as the need to slaughter all the Shiites. And so he decided to move to a slightly more moderate al-Qaeda.

I see. Okay. Then he traveled further and further along this road to moderation. And in doing so, he rejected the basic principle of al-Qaeda and Islamic State, that the big fight is the fight for global Islamic caliphate and against America in the West. So at the time, he made headlines by saying, look, our fight is in Syria, for Syria, and we don't care about America, America is not our enemy. Got it. So just to make sure we have the timeline clear, he started out with Islamic State, he broke

with them and then joined Al-Qaeda and then he broke with Al-Qaeda as well. And so- Correct. And the reason for that is because he just became increasingly moderate in his politics? Well, he became more moderate in his politics, but also the main reason is that he wanted to focus on Syria and fighting the Assad regime in Syria. He wasn't interested in al-Qaeda's or Islamic State's global ideology, the idea of conquering the West, blowing up civilian targets in European cities.

That was not his fight. During the civil war that started in 2011, Jolani's group fought against ISIS and al-Qaeda. But it's unclear if Jolani's turn to moderation is genuine, or if he's trying to appease other Syrians in the West as he pursues power. Jolani remains on a U.S. terrorist list, along with his organization, HTS. The militant leader has said his focus was Syria

and fighting the Assad regime. So some of the most terrific violence in recent history with hundreds of thousands of people killed, millions having to flee the country. Bashar al-Assad's regime used chemical weapons against the civilians, barrel bombs thrown at hospitals, schools, mass displacement, and violence that then gave rise to some of the most horrific Islamist terrorism.

Since 2016, the civil war had been at a standstill, with Assad's government holding on to power, mainly through the support of two key allies, Russia and Iran. Syria holds strategic value. It's a land bridge that links Iran to Hezbollah, the militant group in Lebanon. And Russia has important military bases in Syria, which gives it access to the region. But recently, both Russia and Iran

have been embroiled in other conflicts. These two pillars of the regime went along there because on one hand, Russia was distracted by the war in Ukraine. It had to pull out its troops. And then Hezbollah was decimated in the last several months by the war with Israel in which pretty much the entire leadership of the organization was killed by Israeli airstrikes and then the surviving fighters had to come back to Lebanon from Syria because they were facing an Israeli ground invasion.

So basically, Assad's biggest international backers, Iran and Russia, are distracted. They have wars that they have to deal with elsewhere. They're not just distracted, they were weakened and no longer had the ability if they wanted to come back and help him. Russia didn't have any planes or troops to spare. They cannot expel Ukraine troops from Russian territory since August. And Hezbollah is just a shadow of its foreign itself. It's unable to help itself in Lebanon, let alone go to a foreign country to help Assad. So how did Jalani and the rebels take advantage of that?

Well, the rebels had been planning, their initial plan was to just push back the front line and to regain some of the countryside near Aleppo. But as they started pushing, and they realized that the Syrian army was unable to hold the line. And it was basically like a knife through butter. In a matter of days, the rebels took Aleppo.

Then they turned south, taking more territory, the city of Hama, then homes. And finally, they marched on the capital, Damascus. And so they're basically advancing as fast as their trucks could drive. Wow. Why didn't Assad have the military might to hold off the rebels on his own? I mean, he'd been in power for so long. Well, you know, there was a terrible regime that wasn't popular. I mean, it was extremely corrupt. So people who were in his military were forcefully recruited.

And let's remember that he was increasingly seen as representing just the Alawite minority, which is only about 10% of the population, whereas the rebels come from the Sunni Arab majority. Right, right. Well, then basically it was the same scenario we have seen in other situations. But then basically it was the same scenario we have seen in other situations. These regimes crumble very quickly once it becomes clear that nobody wants to fight for them. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy because once commanders see that other commanders are surrendering

and that the other cities are falling, they all make calculations. Why would I die for a doomed cause? So at the end of the day, nobody wanted to die for him. — Even as it became clear that his forces were getting hollowed out, Assad stood firm. He announced he would give an address to the nation on Saturday. But it never happened. addressed to the nation on Saturday. But it never happened.

— What we know is that he left Damascus either late on Saturday evening, on the first early hours of Sunday morning, likely to a Russian military base, and then from then on to Russia itself. And we have heard from the Russian presidential spokesman that President Putin himself had authorized his asylum in Russia. And now, Assad's fall has created a new power dynamic in the Middle East, with winners and losers.

That's next. Tis the season to treat your family to the great taste of Popeyes. The festive family box is here to make your holidays brighter with all your Popeyes favorites. For just $25, you'll get four pieces of delicious Popeyes signature chicken, four tasty chicken tenders, four regular size and everybody's favorite, four buttermilk biscuits. Hurry up though, like the holiday season, Popeye's $25 festive family box deal will be over before you know it. -♪ Love that chicken from Popeye's! -♪

Get groceries delivered across the GTA from real Canadian Superstore with PC Express. Shop online for super prices and super savings. Try it today and get up to $75 in PC Optimum Points. Visit superstore.ca to get started. Over the weekend, a group of rebels appeared on Syrian state television. In an address, they called for a newly liberated country. They said, quote, long live Syria, free and proud for all Syrians of all sects. What happens to Syria now?

Like what indications do we have about how the rebels might govern? The indications of them governing are positive so far. I mean, they named a moderate politician as his figurehead prime minister, so Jablani himself is not taking the reins of power, and the edicts they issued are, you know, maintain tolerance, they're not forcing women to wear the hijab, head covering, respect minorities, but it's still very, very early days. Can the alliance between the rebel groups hold now that Assad is gone? Well, that is certainly what Syrians expect. And I think after 13 years of civil war, there is a lot of pressure to avoid further bloodshed. But let's also not forget

that the whole reason why Syria descended into the civil war is because outside powers were all back in their own rival factions and really fighting their own proxy wars in Syria. And these outside powers like Turkey, like Saudi Arabia, like Iran, like Russia, like Israel, are still, to one extent or Israel, I still, to one extent or another, I'm still going to be interested in what happens in Syria. So I want to talk more about those outside powers. I kind of want to do a winners and losers in geopolitics with you. Like a lightning round. So Russia, winner or loser in this, and why? Russia is definitely a loser. Russian officials putting himself, love to say that unlike America, Russia can be relied upon. America abandons its allies in Afghanistan, look what happened

in Vietnam, whereas Russia will do anything to preserve its clients, its vessels, and it went to war to make sure that Assad doesn't fall. Well, Assad has fallen and Russia didn't come to bail him out. And so this really punctures the myth of Russia being a reliable ally and a partner. And Iran? Iran is the biggest loser because Iran, unlike Russia, doesn't have any ties to anyone in government in Syria now. The Iranian embassy was ransacked, the Russian was not.

And Iran now loses the land bridge that was so crucial for its ability to supply Hezbollah in Lebanon. What about Turkey? Turkey is a supporter of Jalani and the HTS. Is Turkey a winner or a loser? It's a major strategic victory for Turkey because the rebels in power in Damascus now are at least friendly to Turkey, if not directly assisted by Turkey. And it expands Turkey's authority throughout the Middle East. And then there's Israel. So in the last 24 hours, Israel pushed into the Golan Heights, which is the demilitarized zone on their border with Syria. What's at stake for Israel?

Well, Israel, you know, they lost the devil they know, and they're getting the devil they don't know. I better know if the devil they don't know is worse or better. Obviously, the Islamists charged in Syria also sympathize with the Palestinians, sympathize with Hamas, and are no friends of Israel. But does this mean that we'll actually take action against Israel? Will they allow attacks against Israel from Syria? So it's all one of these many questions. And one of the reasons why Israel in recent hours has expanded its occupation zone in

the Golan Heights and has been launching airstrike after airstrike to basically take out all the heavy weapons that the Syrian rebels will inherit from the regime. The U.S. says it will continue to support the Syrian people. The military keeps a force of around 900 troops in southeast Syria to defend against ISIS fighters. And on Sunday, President Biden launched airstrikes on ISIS targets in Syria. He said they were intended to ensure that ISIS does not take advantage of the power vacuum.

We will engage with all Syrian groups, including within the process led by the United Nations, to establish a transition away from the Assad regime toward independent, sovereign, an independent, independent, I might not say it again, sovereign Syria with a new constitution, a new government that serves all Syrians. This process will be determined by the Syrian people themselves. Over the weekend, President-elect Trump

posted on social media, quote, This is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved. And so in broad terms, how does the fall of Assad change the map of power globally? Well, globally, we're seeing that the axis of Russia-Iran, that is also allied with China and North Korea, has suffered a setback. It shows that this axis is not always winning and it can be defeated.

So what are the best and the worst case scenarios for Syria going forward? I think, well, the best case scenario, there's liberal democracy in Syria, but it's also not a very realistic scenario at this stage. I think the more realistic scenario to which a lot of Syria's neighbors and Western countries aspire is a peaceful Syria that will have an Islamist-led but more or less tolerant authoritarian regime along the lines of many other such regimes in the Middle East, that will be at peace and that will allow the millions of Syrian refugees to come back from Europe and Turkey and other countries and that will not be

embroiled in wars with its neighbors such as Israel. And the worst-case scenario? Well, the worst-case scenario is a renewed civil war and the return of the most violent and extremist movements we have seen in the region, a the return of the most violent and extremist movements we have seen in the region, a new incarnation of the Islamic State, which is still lurking in parts of the Syrian desert, and Syria's return to being an epicenter of global terrorism. What about for average Syrians? What does this change in power mean for the people in Syria who've

seen years of war and oppression? But I think for average Syrians living, who used to live in the regime controlled areas, this is really for the first time in their lifetime, a moment of freedom. I mean, as much as we can focus on all the troubles that Syria can face in the future, I mean, this is a historical moment. This is a moment where one of the worst regimes on earth has fallen and people no longer have to be as afraid as they used to be their entire life. That's all for today, Monday, December 9th. The Journal is a co-production of Spotify and The Wall Street Journal.

Additional reporting in this episode from Isabel Coles, Stephen Kalin, Jared Malson, and Summer Said. Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.