The Journal. - Biden vs. Trump: The Rematch Nobody Wants

Episode Date: March 6, 2024

Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley suspended her bid for the Republican presidential nomination.That sets the stage for another matchup between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in November. WSJ’s Eliza Collins looks at the new shape of this old rivalry. Further Reading: - Biden vs. Trump: A Familiar Matchup in an Unprecedented Election   - Nikki Haley Exits Republican Presidential Race  Further Listening: - Does Nikki Haley Have a Chance At Beating Trump?  - A Messy Start to the 2024 Presidential Election  - The Deepfake Election Has Arrived  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How would you describe this year's Super Tuesday in like three words? I wrote it in the blog as Super Snooze Day. Nice. That's very clever. That's our colleague Eliza Collins. And she says the reason it was a snooze? That's our colleague Eliza Collins. And she says the reason it was a snooze? It's like most Americans say they absolutely don't want a rematch between Trump and Biden,

and they're getting a rematch between Trump and Biden. It's not like LeBron and Curry back in the NBA finals, or like Rocky II, Creed versus Balboa. Yeah, I'm just not sure I've ever heard those comparisons from voters. Joe Biden and Donald Trump dominated in the 16 primaries that were held yesterday. And this morning, Trump's only remaining Republican rival, Nikki Haley, dropped out. What is amazing is that I talk to voters all the time who wouldn't consider, like I'd ask, who would you vote for, Trump or Biden? And they'd say, no, no, no, it's not going to be Trump and Biden. This is as recently as last week. So now it's like they're really getting Trump and Biden and people are

going to have to figure out what to do. So what was interesting to you about what happened last night? You know, we always watch these primaries to see who is showing up and for whom. And I think now we're going into a general. And it's a general that most Americans have said repeatedly they don't want. So it's not so much about excitement. What I'm watching is who stays home or who votes for third party candidates. And I think we could see some clues in the primaries about that. Welcome to The Journal, our show about money, business, and power. I'm Ryan Knudson.

It's Wednesday, March 6th. Coming up on the show, Election 2024. The rematch nobody wants. Seth and Riley's Garage Hard Lemonade. A delicious classic with a vibrant taste of fresh lemons. The perfect balance of sweet and sour with a crisp, sesty edge. Welcome to The Garage, the place of refreshing hard lemonade. Available at the LCBO. Must be legal drinking age.

Please enjoy responsibly. One of the biggest developments coming out of Super Tuesday was Nikki Haley's decision to drop out. She gave a brief speech this morning, and she did not endorse Trump. It is now up to Donald Trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it who did not support him. And I hope he does that. At its best, politics is about bringing people into your cause, not turning them away. And our conservative cause badly needs more people.

Let's talk about what may be the biggest headline or the biggest development out of Super Tuesday, which is that Nikki Haley is dropping out of the race. Does she ever really have a chance? I guess it's a question of does anyone have a chance against Trump? Haley had really started to gain momentum coming out of the summer. She actually was a rare candidate who did really well in debates and benefited. She got lots of money. well in debates and benefited. She got lots of money. I mean, she raised millions and millions of dollars in recent months. And a lot of Republicans hoped she had a chance, but it didn't. This election cycle, no one had a chance against Trump. Haley only won two primaries, Vermont and Washington, D.C. But even in states where she lost, she often brought

in 20 to 40 percent of the votes. She performed especially well among suburban women and people with college degrees. And what about her voters? Where do you think they're most likely to go? I think her voters split. A Nikki Haley rally was a really interesting place to be because there were a lot of voters who had voted for Trump twice and criticized him, were very unhappy with how he had left office, with his false claims of election fraud. And they would go on and on about how much they disliked Trump. And then I would say, OK, but Trump's the nominee and he's against Biden. What do you do? And they'd say, I guess I'd vote Trump. And then there was a section of people at her events who said they'd go Biden.

So she really, I don't know the percentage breakdown, but I think her voters do not all go to one person. They certainly don't all go to Trump. What about her donors? Because Nikki Haley got a lot of support from big Republican donors who also didn't to Trump. What about her donors? Because Nikki Haley got a lot of support from big Republican donors who also didn't want Trump. Where do those dollars go? I think we'll see a benefit to Trump from Republican donors, especially now that it's clear it's really him versus Biden. Now, she did get some support from Democrats, Democratic donors who would hope to stop Trump. They're gone. They do not go to Trump. They'll probably go to Biden.

Trump has now won enough delegates that he's on pace to clinch the GOP nomination as soon as next week. Last night, Trump gave a speech for Mar-a-Lago, claiming victory. And we're going to make America great again, greater than ever before. Thank you very much. It's been a big night. Thank you very much. Thank you. Trump obviously did very well last night. He won every state other than Vermont against Nikki Haley. But were there anything in the results that gave you signs about his strengths and his weaknesses? I think that what happened on Super Tuesday is similar to what we've seen in other states where there's been a GOP primary.

Trump does not have the support of the entire Republican base. In fact, he's losing depending on the state. You know, sometimes it's 25 percent. Sometimes it's as much as 40 percent in a state like New Hampshire, which is a swing state. That is a problem for him in a general election. Trump has work to do to consolidate his base, but so does Biden. And that goes back to just where we are, just how much voters feel unhappy, not enthusiastic about what we're looking at. Coming up, what Super Tuesday says about Biden's chances.

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Cheers to taking off this summer. More details at aircanada.com. All right, so let's talk about Joe Biden. What can we learn about Joe Biden's candidacy after how the results went for him last night? Biden won every state, and he won by large margins. He was winning by more significant margins than Trump was. He also had a less competitive primary. But Biden's been lagging behind Trump in all recent polling or most recent polling. And they have long said they felt like once it becomes a race between the two, Biden will start doing better.

The Biden campaign and Democrats are hoping that eventually Democrats come home and independents come home because they can't stand the thought of another Trump term. While Biden was dominant yesterday, there were signs of weakness in his base. In some states, voters were able to select uncommitted on their ballots. And tens of thousands of people did. He needs to rebuild his coalition. He's angered a lot of progressive Democrats. And we saw that in the state of Minnesota, about 20 percent of voters voted uncommitted, which is a protest vote based on his support for Israel in its war against Hamas.

Now, I will say the Biden campaign sent out a statement last night saying Biden does agree with them and wants peace and is working towards that. But it doesn't seem to be enough so far. And so those voters are not happy with how Biden's handling it. They're not going to go out and vote for Trump, but they might not vote for Biden. They might stay home. Michigan, we saw last week, 100,000 voters voted uncommitted. That's a big problem for Biden. Michigan is a major battleground. So we've got Trump versus Biden again, which in a lot of ways feels like it's Groundhog's Day.

But is this the same race as it was in 2020? same race as it was in 2020? I don't think so. I think it's worse than 2020. In 2020, Biden had more enthusiasm. There were people who felt like he was the only one who could beat Trump. We saw this consolidation around the party, within the party, behind his candidacy. He did a lot of work to win over progressives who had initially been skeptical of him. And so it felt different. Also, I think it's important to note both of them, they're older. It would be the two oldest candidates ever. Biden in particular is really hit with that in polling. And when I talk to voters over and over and over again, they talk about his age. That was not the case in 20. People felt like, oh, yeah, they're old candidates. I'd love a new generation. But there weren't the same concerns about them

being that old. And so I think we have 2020, but with less enthusiasm, more concerns. People are living Biden's tenure now. And in fact, some people are kind of glossing over Trump's because it's been a while since he's been in office. So Trump is benefiting a bit from that as well. So Biden has this age issue, which is continuing to weigh him down. And Trump, meanwhile, has this issue of 91 criminal charges. Which of these candidates do you think has the heavier baggage? There are definitely voters who say they cannot vote for him if he is criminally charged. And our polling shows that it does help Biden, but not by a huge margin.

We're still talking single digits. Biden's age is a real problem for him. I mean, I hear it over and over and over from voters. The question is now that it's Biden versus Trump, is it enough of a problem for them not to vote for him? Or was it more a problem that at the beginning of the year that they were concerned about, but still hoping a different Democrat took over. And I don't know the answer on either of those. On the issue of money, Biden has a big advantage. His campaign has far outraced Trump's. And Trump might have to divert funds that he might have otherwise spent on his campaign toward paying massive legal bills from his civil cases, like a recent $450 million judgment in a New York fraud case.

Meanwhile, Trump has been courting wealthy donors, like he recently met with Elon Musk. In a post on X Today, Musk said, quote, just to be super clear, I am not donating money to either candidate for U.S. president. So now we have these two candidates that most Americans don't want. Is there any way that it ends up not being Trump versus Biden again?

If they remain healthy and in this race, no. The way the primary process works is they have to secure enough delegates to get the nomination. They will have that this month. Then over the summer, there will be a convention where they're both crowned the nominee. There's all sorts of theories, wishful thinking that over the summer at the convention, there's a contested convention and another candidate emerges. Democrats have decided Biden is their person, the same way we've seen the Republican Party decide that Trump is. So barring something crazy about their health or something they can't control,

something with Trump's criminal charges, if it happens before, could change the contour of the race. But I think we should plan on a Trump-Biden rematch. Cool. You sound like many Americans. Yes, I am. That's who I am. You know, I'm just like, I'm just your everyday average Joe. Just an average guy. Just an average guy. You said that last night was super snooze day. Is that going to be the tone for the rest of the campaign?

Might be a little angrier than super snooze day. I think our country is angry and partisan and upset. Last night was super snooze day because we knew what would happen. We don't know what's going to happen in November. It's a real coin flip. And it's a coin flip from top to bottom. At presidency, Senate, House, some of these state houses, some of these governor's races. I mean, our country is just on a knife's edge. And so I don't think it's super snooze day. And because of that, but if people don't engage, don't show up, they might feel that way. But then I think it's exciting, like as a reporter, because we genuinely have no idea

what's going to happen. I wouldn't give either candidate an edge right now because the polling is so tight. And because when I talk to voters, they're so conflicted. So that is exciting, but voters don't feel excited. That's all for today. Wednesday, March 6th. The Journal is a co-production of Spotify and The Wall Street Journal. If you like our show, follow us on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. We're out every weekday afternoon.

Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.