The Journal. - Does Nikki Haley Have a Chance At Beating Trump?

Episode Date: December 8, 2023

Nikki Haley, former U.N. ambassador and governor of South Carolina, has been gaining traction in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. But can she catch up to the front-runner, former President Donald Trump? WSJ’s Molly Ball breaks down Haley’s growing momentum. Further Reading: -Debate Performances Fuel Haley’s Rise in GOP Nomination Race  -Nikki Haley’s Challenge: Keep Anti-Trump GOP Vote, Add Some Trump Backers  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In just over a month, the first votes in the Republican primary will be cast in Iowa. And one candidate has a massive lead. We're going to crush crooked Joe Biden next November. And we are going to very simply make America great again. But former President Donald Trump isn't the only Republican running. There are about a dozen other people who've also jumped into the race. And over the past few months, one candidate has started to emerge as a potential contender.

Nikki Haley. My approach is different. No drama, no vendettas, no whining. For anyone watching these debates, you couldn't help but notice her. That's our colleague Molly Ball, senior political correspondent. She is quick on her feet. She is good at explaining her positions. We have to go and start beefing up the middle class. And the first thing I would do is I would eliminate the federal gas and diesel tax

in this country. She's very good at clapping back at anyone who comes at her, who insults her. She can dish it out as well as she can take it. And how would you describe what happened at the most recent debate on Wednesday night? Everybody ganged up on Nikki Haley. You know, there were four candidates on stage,

no frontrunner, no Donald Trump, but Ron DeSantis, Chris Christie, and Vivek Ramaswamy, all of them focusing their attacks on Nikki Haley, which I think makes it perfectly clear which candidate is seen as the one to beat at this point. I love all the attention, fellas. Thank you for that. Haley's received some big endorsements with deep pockets.

And in a lot of polls, she's moved into second place, albeit a very distant second place. So can she pull it off? Welcome to The Journal, our show about money, business, and power. I'm Ryan Knudson. It's Friday, December 8th. Coming up on the show, why Nikki Haley is emerging as the top challenger to Trump.

With Uber Reserve, you can book your Uber ride in advance. 90 days in advance. Perfect for all you forward thinkers and planning gurus. Reserve your Uber ride up to 90 days in advance. Uber Reserve. See Uber app for details. What do you find most interesting about Nikki Haley as a politician? You know, I think there are a lot of interesting things about Nikki Haley. She is the child of Indian immigrants who grew up in a small town in South Carolina and became an accountant until she just took it upon herself to run for office and became

a sort of outsider candidate, was the conservative insurgent Tea Party type candidate in 2010 when she ran for governor. And she's someone who has a history of pulling off big upsets. She has that line that anyone who's been around her has probably heard about how she wears those spike heels so she can kick people with them. I wear heels. It's not for a fashion statement. It's because if I see something wrong, we're going to kick them every single time. And so she has this very aggressive style that she delivers with a smile that people seem to like. Haley has been in politics a long time, but she rose to national prominence in 2015.

After the murder of Black churchgoers in Charleston, South Carolina, by a white supremacist, you know, she was the governor at that time, and she decided it was time to finally take down the Confederate flag at the South Carolina state capitol. Today, we are here in a moment of unity in our state, without ill will, we are here in a moment of unity in our state without ill will

to say it's time to move the flag from the capitol grounds. This was something that had been, you know, controversial in South Carolina for literally decades, something that Republicans had defended for a long time. And she decided enough was enough. And she had to push and fight very, very hard to get that Republican legislature behind her. But it meant a lot to her. She took it personally, and it was a very significant victory for her. Haley was critical of Trump during the 2016 primary, and she initially backed Marco Rubio. But after Trump became the nominee, she gave him her support. After the election,

Trump chose Haley to be his ambassador to the United Nations. She served for two years and left the administration on good terms. It was a blessing to go into the U.N. with body armor every day and defend America. And I'll always do that. I'll never truly step aside from fighting for our country. But I will tell you that I think it's time. And in February of this year, she was one of the first Republicans to announce that she was running for president. So she got in early, hoping that she could get some attention that way,

in fact, was one of the first candidates in the race, hoping that that would give people a chance to get to know her, give her a chance to go out there, do the work on the ground, meet the Iowans, meet the New Hampshireites, and really trying to plant a flag in New Hampshire more than anything. How was her announcement received at first? I think it didn't make an enormous splash. And if you remember, that was a moment where Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was seen as the one to beat in this campaign, the potential Trump slayer in the campaign. Most people were looking at this

race as a battle between Trump and DeSantis, including Trump. You know, from before DeSantis entered the race, Trump was singling him out as a threat. Trump was attacking him. Trump's super pack dropped more than $10 million in ads against DeSantis when he wasn't even a threat. Trump was attacking him. Trump's super PAC dropped more than $10 million in ads against DeSantis when he wasn't even a candidate. So Haley was flying under the radar, not getting a ton of attention, not seen as having much of a chance for quite a while there. On the issues, Haley is more of a traditional Republican than most other candidates. She says she's unapologetically pro-life, and she said recently that she would have signed a six-week abortion ban

if it came to her desk when she was governor of South Carolina. But she's criticized efforts to limit abortion at the federal level, which she says would never get enough votes to get through Congress. As much as I'm pro-life, I don't judge anyone for being pro-choice and I don't want them to judge me for being pro-life. Haley says she believes climate change is real, but would rather let the private sector figure it out. On national security, she's known as a hawk. She's tough on China and she supports sending financial aid to Israel and Ukraine. So when you want to talk about what has been given to Ukraine, less than three and a half

percent of our defense budget has been given to Ukraine. And on the issue of Donald Trump, she's tried to walk a careful line during the debates. She didn't make a lot of forceful criticisms of his character or behavior, but she said, look, we all know that he's got a lot of baggage. There's a lot of chaos surrounding him. And so she was making an electability argument, saying Republicans would have a better chance of winning with someone like her on the ticket, and also saying, as much as we may have loved Trump's presidency, he's just too chaotic and unpredictable, and wouldn't you like to have someone, the proverbial steady hand on the tiller? We're ready, ready to move past the stale ideas and faded names of the past. And we are more

than ready for a new generation to lead us into the future. So she's not really positioning herself as like an anti-Trump. She's more saying that we're ready to move on from Trump. That's right. And that's a calculation that we've seen most of these candidates make because they've all met Republican primary voters. They can read a poll. They know that there's very little appetite for an anti-Trump candidate in today's Republican Party. And it's really testament to the way that Donald Trump has reshaped the Republican Party in his image over the past decade. There may have been a fair amount of Trump skeptical Republicans back in 2016, but these days they've all either been purged or

persuaded. So it is a pro-Trump party and the candidates know that, even given everything that Trump's been through recently, isn't perceived as a huge lane for someone who's going to aggressively argue against Donald Trump. Has she said anything about Donald Trump's involvement in January 6th and this wholly disproven idea that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump? that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump? She has. She actually came out very strongly against Trump after January 6th, saying that this was wrong. But again, like most Republicans, she came back in the fold after that.

I believe President Trump was the right president at the right time. So her campaign starts out and she's kind of flying under the radar, not getting a lot of attention. When and how did her campaign start to gain momentum? You can trace it all to the debates. It is really the debate performances that have buoyed her into contention.

I don't think she's doing anything special that the other candidates aren't doing, except for putting on a good show on that debate stage. She's able to, you know, insert herself into conversation, to make strong arguments, to deliver memorable zingers. While she's held back on Trump, she's gone harder against her opponents on the debate stage. She seemed particularly annoyed by Vivek Ramaswamy, the businessman and political newcomer who has a particularly sort of trollish presence on the debate stage, and she has seemed personally offended by him. So, you know, lines like turning to Vivek and saying,

You have no foreign policy experience, and it shows. That was in the first debate. And in the second debate, she turns on him again, and she says, Honestly, every time I hear you, I feel a little bit dumber for what you say. And it got to the point in the third debate last month where she actually called him scum. He had insulted her family, brought her daughter into it. So she felt personally attacked. So there's a real mutual loathing

between those two candidates. But it's been an opportunity for her to show her toughness, to show how she can dish out those attacks. Haley isn't just excelling at the debates. She's also starting to rake in more and more money. That's after the break. Breakfast sandwich for only $5 at A&W's in Ontario. Put your hands together for Lady Raven.

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Josh Hartnett. I'm in control. And Salika as Lady Raven. This whole concert, it's a trap. Trap, directed by M. Night Shyamalan. Only in theaters August 2nd. Last week, Nikki Haley got an endorsement from a huge conservative super PAC, Americans for Prosperity Action.

Which is the grassroots and donor network headed by the billionaire industrialist Charles Koch, the surviving member of the famous Koch brothers. So he is a sort of libertarian-minded, old-school Republican who has spent billions on politics. I think no big secret that he's not a very big fan of Trump. And the Americans for Prosperity Network, which is a network of big donors, but then also this, you know, grassroots organization that knocks on doors in Iowa and other states. It isn't just the deep pockets of Charles Koch. Many establishment Republicans, and even a few prominent Democrats,

have recently announced their support of Haley. She's also getting a look from Wall Street. We've reported on the many Wall Street CEOs who are throwing fundraisers for her or who are sort of auditioning her, wanting to talk to her. And so she's really having a moment with those types of people. So that's going to give her a lot of money. It got her some attention. It gets her some momentum. It lends some credence to this idea that the

Republican establishment, to the extent that it still exists, can try to sort of consolidate around one person and she should be it. How much might that influence the race, do you think? Because in some ways it seems like it could be a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it's, you know, money and resources that can help her run a campaign. But on the other hand, particularly in the Republican Party, there has been a very strong anti-establishment wing and desire among voters. establishment wing and desire among voters. So could these endorsements from parts of the establishment actually become a hindrance at some point? That is certainly what Haley's rivals and critics are hoping. And we heard her attacked on the debate stage in exactly those terms.

And now you're a multimillionaire. That math does not add up. It adds up to the fact that you are corrupt. You know, you could sort of close your eyes and almost feel like it was Donald Trump in 2016 on that stage, right? Saying these other candidates are all puppets. They've all got their donors and they're puppets and I can't be bought. So you're right. It is a double-edged sword to have that kind of support from the establishment, which is not particularly loved by the Republican base. Haley's response to those criticisms is, well, don't you wish you had it? And in terms of these donors that are supporting me,

they're just jealous. They wish that they were supporting them, but I'm not going to... They wish they had this money, this endorsement, and she'll take the support wherever she can get it. But even with all this support, Haley is still behind Trump in every single poll. She's polling in the teens, and Trump is above 50%. Do you think she has any chance of actually beating Donald Trump? Well, look, I'm a reporter. I don't make predictions. It's a very firm policy because anything can happen.

The future hasn't happened yet. And a poll is just a snapshot. We have no idea who's going to win. And this is an unusual race. This is not the type of primary that we've really seen before. It's Trump's third campaign for president. He's a former president who lost his last election. He's a former president who lost his last election. He's facing all these criminal indictments and other legal troubles. So I'm not counting anybody out, even if they are down 50 points in the polls. I mean, she is so far behind. Everybody's so far behind Donald Trump.

What would need to happen in order for that gap to close? I think there's a couple things. I think the fact that Haley is having this little surge of momentum as we are so close to the caucuses and to voting beginning means that she has a chance to create a moment. And we see in politics, momentum is a very powerful thing. And things can change very, very quickly if voters suddenly latch on to something or someone. So that's one thing is momentum.

And then the other thing is this argument that a lot of Republicans are having with each other about consolidation. A lot of powerful voices in the Republican Party, a lot of members of the conservative establishment who aren't sure that Trump is the best bet for 2024 or that he can win against Biden or any other Democrat, they are arguing that in order to beat Trump, something literally no one has ever done in a Republican primary, that the candidates have to consolidate the vote, get all of the voters who would vote for someone other than Trump and sort of leapfrog to victory. If she were the Republican nominee, how does she pull against Biden? She pulls extremely well against Biden. In fact, in a lot of the head-to-head matchups that pollsters have done in this race, she appears to be the strongest candidate against Biden, in some cases

leading him by double digits. But that is one of her calling cards saying, look, I'm the most electable candidate. Look how well I do against Biden. It feels like in almost every primary, both on the Democratic side and the Republican side, there's always been candidates that have suddenly shot up in the polls for a week or two before fading again. Do you think Nikki Haley's rise has staying power or might she just be a flash in the pan? We won't know until Iowa, but you're right. There's often a sort of flavor of the moment component to these candidates who rise in the polls. I would say, you know, I think the argument Haley's campaign would make, and I am not obviously advocating for them or speaking for them, but they would point to the fact that her rise has not been a bubble.

It hasn't been this meteoric shooting up in the polls after one incident or, you know, a viral video or something like that. It's been slow and steady. She has climbed after every debate, and the more voters see her, the more they seem to like her. You know, the more voters see Ron DeSantis, the less they seem to like him. But Haley, the more exposure people get to her, the more she's able to put herself in front of them and give them a taste of what she has to offer,

the more compelled they are. And that can be really powerful. And before we go, we're excited to drop the second episode of our new series, Artificial, the Open AI Story, on Sunday. That's all for today, Friday, December 8th. The Journal is a co-production of Spotify and The Wall Street Journal. That's all for today. Friday, December 8th. Our engineers are

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