The Journal. - Red, White and Who? How Abortion Plays For Trump and Harris

Episode Date: September 6, 2024

Who will win the race to the White House? A new series from The Journal podcast explores the issues that are shaping this election. This week, Ryan Knutson and WSJ’s Molly Ball delve into reproductive rights, examining how the issue is playing out for both Democrats and Republicans. Plus..what makes a state a swing state? Further Listening: - For Kamala Harris, a Big Interview and a Narrow Lead  - Hope, Unity (and Some Nerves at the DNC)  - Is the Trump Campaign Going Off Track?  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Molly, so you're out on the campaign trail right now. I am. I am at a hotel outside of Cleveland, Ohio, getting ready to go to some Senate campaign events. Nice. Are you in the lobby? Yeah. They didn't have a room ready for me since it's nine o'clock in the morning.

But they have these little like booths off the lobby and breakfast is over. It seems pretty quiet. How many elections have you covered now? The first campaign I went to conventions for was oh, wait, but I was still a local reporter and the first campaign I really hit the road for presidential campaign was 2012. So 16 years, that's was that is that four Is this your fourth presidential election you've been covering? Fifth. Fifth. Eight, 12, 16, 20. So this is number five.

Yeah, so now for the next eight, is it eight weeks until the campaign, until the election? Is it? I'd have to count. Let's see. I did look it up, actually, it is eight weeks. And we're going to be calling you up every Friday to talk about this election and all of its wild twists and turns. Something tells me there will be no shortage of things to discuss over the next,

you're right, eight weeks. All right, so should we try this thing? Let's do it. All right, so should we try this thing? Let's do it. From the Journal, this is Red, White and Who. Our show about the road to the White House. I'm Ryan Knudsen. And I'm Molly Ball.

It's Friday, September 6th. Coming up on the first episode of our new series, we're going to talk about abortion and how this issue could define the 2024 election. This episode is brought to you by CIBC. From closing that first sale to opening a second store, as a business owner, you've hustled to accomplish a lot. But the rewards don't stop there. When you earn two times more points

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What is each campaign focusing on? Both campaigns are focusing on policy rollouts and debate prep this week. The big, hotly anticipated, game changing presidential debate is next Tuesday. So both candidates are going to do some hunkering down and getting ready in their individual ways. Both candidates also made some announcements about economic policy this week. Kamala Harris going to New Hampshire to talk about the things she says she would do to encourage small businesses.

Donald Trump speaking at the Economic Club in New York, talking about his plans for the economy, his plan to bring in Elon Musk to audit the federal government and make it more efficient. And the Harris campaign also launched a reproductive rights bus tour starting in Florida this week. So laying down a marker on one of the central issues for her campaign and trying to raise awareness of that topic. And significantly beginning that effort right in Donald Trump's backyard in Palm Beach, Florida.

— Alright, so let's talk about reproductive rights, abortion, which has become a big issue in this election, because this, of course, is the first presidential election since the Dobbs decision in 2022 that overturned Roe v. Wade. And now abortion access has changed dramatically in the U.S. since then. That's right. 14 states have banned abortion more or less completely since Roe v. Wade was overturned. A lot of blue states have gone in the other direction, have expanded access. And I think the most significant political development is that in a number of states,

there have been ballot measures asking people whether they want to either further restrict or ban abortion or expand abortion rights. In every single one of those ballot measures, the abortion rights side has won. So we see a dramatic shift of public opinion toward abortion rights, toward abortion access. Where would you say this issue ranks for voters in terms of importance? It's very interesting because it doesn't tend to be people's number one issue.

It tends to rank a little further down the list. Consistently consistently the plurality of voters when you ask what's your most important issue or what's the issue that's most affecting your vote, people say the economy, inflation, prices, cost of living, that sort of thing. And then up there tends to be immigration as well. But there was a poll this week that found that with women voters under 45, abortion now is the number one issue. Because this has become such a crucial winning issue for Democrats,

one of the things that you see Democratic campaigns trying to do is increase the salience of this issue. And it was a significant source of angst for Democrats when Joe Biden was still in the race, that he was not willing or able to do that. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris, for more than a year now, has been the administration's chief messenger on this issue.

She's very comfortable speaking about it. The freedom to make decisions about one's own body and not have the government telling people what to do. In several states, abortion is actually on the ballot this November, like Nevada, Florida, Missouri, just to name a few, where there are ballot measures that would codify, in many cases, in the state's constitution, abortion protection. Does that help one candidate more than the other? I think that's a significant question mark in this election, because as you mentioned

before, this is the first presidential election since Roe v. Wade was overturned. So we are very much in uncharted territory. We don't know how this, you know, volatile and emotional issue interacts with a presidential ballot where voters are making so many other calculations and thinking about so many other things. What we've seen in the, again, not very many elections that have occurred since that Dobbs decision in 2022 is that it's sort of an unpredictable interaction when people are not just voting on abortion directly. And certainly the hope of Democrats is that those states

where this is on the ballot, it will juice the turnout of voters who care about this issue. And those voters are more likely to be Democrats or to lean toward a Democratic candidate. And therefore, if you can just get them to the polls, they're more likely to support Kamala Harris in the presidential election. But also wouldn't a ballot measure on abortion

motivate both sides? I mean, including conservatives who want to keep abortion restricted, that they would also be motivated to come out and vote? So far, what we've seen is that turnout has been pretty lopsidedly in favor of abortion rights in all these state referendums. So, I mean, one of the things that's really interesting

about public opinion on this issue is it was really considered a sort of 50-50 issue before the Dobbs decision. It seemed like there were about equal numbers of Americans who would call themselves pro-life or pro-choice, but that has changed since Roe was overturned. And what we've seen is that more and more Americans, it's now between 60 and 70% will tell a pollster

that they believe abortion should be completely or mostly legal. So there's really been a shift in the direction of abortion rights, you know, the tragic stories that continue to come out of states where the direction of abortion rights, you know, the tragic stories that continue to come out of states where the procedure has been restricted has changed the way people think about this issue in a lot of ways. Democrats talk about it as a matter of freedom, you know, trying to speak a sort of conservative

language on this issue, talking about people's liberty and autonomy. And that has resonated with a lot of otherwise conservative voters to the point where you now have a pretty strong political consensus, again, even in some pretty deep red states in favor of abortion rights. We talked a lot about Kamala Harris's position on abortion already. But let's talk about Trump a little bit. He obviously, during his time as president appointed Supreme

Court justices who voted to overturn Roe versus Wade. But I don't, it doesn't seem like he wants to take a strong stance on this. Like he's both taken credit for killing Roe v. Wade. Well, I did something that nobody thought was possible. I got rid of Roe v. Wade.

And by doing that. And he also gave mixed signals on this Florida ballot measure that would get rid of the state's current law, which outlaws abortions after six weeks. First, it seemed like Trump was going to vote for that amendment to protect abortions. And now Trump says he isn't going to vote for it. But what do you think is going on here? What's your sense of how Trump is handling this issue? Well, we know that before he became a Republican, Donald Trump was a pro-choice Manhattan Democrat. And so this has never been an issue of really personal conviction for him. He was able to reassure pro-life voters and bring them to support his candidacy in 2016 and 2020 by assuring them that he would do the things that they wanted, most notably appointing

those Supreme Court justices. But he's been very clear since Roe was overturned that he sees this as a political loser for the Republican Party. And he's been clear about wanting to triangulate that into a more acceptable position. He frequently says, oh, we're going to find a compromise on this. We're going to make a deal. We're going to find a solution that makes everybody happy. But I think most people in politics don't think that that's possible on this issue, right? It's a tough issue for him because he is caught between his social conservative base that

feels very strongly that abortion should not be permitted under any circumstance. There are a lot of religious conservatives for whom this is their main or even only voting issue and they're very passionate about it. And that is a block of the electorate that is really only available to Trump and anything he does to diminish their enthusiasm for him could be a problem. On the other hand, there's the general electorate, as we've been talking about, that has only become more and more supportive of abortion rights as time has gone on.

So any issue that, you know, forces a candidate to triangulate between their base and the rest of the electorate is going to be a tough issue. And that's the pickle that Trump finds himself in on abortion. What can presidents actually do about this issue? I mean, aside from appointing Supreme Court justices, which is not any sure thing or guarantee during any particular presidential term, how much influence do they actually have?

That is a really good question because, as Donald Trump has said many times, all the Supreme Court decision did is return this issue to the states. And so he would argue this isn't something that the federal government is involved in anyway. Now, he hasn't fully answered the question of whether he would sign or veto a national abortion ban if one came to his desk, if there was a Republican Congress that was able to pass some sort of national legislation on this issue. So that's one thing, of course, that the federal government could do is that Congress could pass a law. But inevitably inevitably there will be something that the next president is going to decide related to abortion rights.

All right. So we're going to take a quick break. And then when we come back, we're going to take a listener question and talk a little bit about the debate next week. Your teen requested a ride, but this time not from you. It's through their Uber Teen account. It's an Uber account that allows your teen to request a ride under your supervision with live trip tracking and highly rated drivers. Add your teen to your Uber account today.

This episode is brought to you by Mazda. When you drive a Mazda, you'll find out why our SUVs won more 2024 IIHS Top Safety Picks than any other brand as of June 2024. Find out what makes Mazda different at Mazda.ca. All right, Molly, so for the past few weeks, as you know, we've been taking questions from listeners about the election and we've been getting a ton. By the way, thank you all so much. Please keep the questions coming. And this

week, our senior producer, Rachel Humphries, actually called one of our listeners up. Hi, Ryan. Hi, Molly. Hey, Rachel. So the listener that you called up is Ronan Spencer. So yes, I called Ronan up this week to find out a bit more about him. Hello? Hey, is that Ronan? Yes, it is. Hey, Ronan, this is Rachel Humphrey. And he told me that he's 19 years old. He studies finance and political science at Utah State University.

And he loves politics, maybe even more than you do, actually, Molly. How is that possible? And this is the first election he's actually going to vote in. I think that it's actually really crazy that this is going to be the first time that I'm going to be able to vote in. I think that it's actually really crazy that this is going to be the first time that I'm going to be able to vote in. I think that it's actually really crazy that this is going to be the first time that I'm

going to be able to vote in. I think that it's actually really crazy that this is going to be the first time that I'm going to be able to vote in. I think that it's actually really crazy that this is going to be the first time that I'm going to be able to vote in. I think that it's actually really crazy that this is going to be the first time that I'm going to be able to vote in. I think that it's actually really crazy that this is going to be the first time that I'm

going to be able to vote in. I think that it's actually really crazy that this is going to be the first time that I'm going to be able to vote in. I think that it's actually really crazy that this is going to be the first time that I'm going to be able to vote in. I think that it's actually really crazy that this is going to be the first time that I'm he's actually going to vote in. I think that it's actually really crazy that this is going to be the first time that I'm going to be able to vote. You know, I still am. I'm looking forward to the day. I have it in my calendar and everything. I'm going to get a good breakfast. Really excited. What's going to be your pre vote breakfast?

I'm honestly thinking some really good chocolate chip pancakes. Oh, nice. That just sounds really good before an election day. I don't know why. It just sounds very nice. Do you know who you're going to vote for at this election, Ronan? See, that's the funny thing is, you know, I read all the news and then I like I do all this research and stuff. I still don't know who I'm going to vote for. You're undecided at this point? I am undecided and I think it's actually kind of fun.

I feel like all of the candidates are trying to win me over and so I like to listen to all of the points. But that's what I would say right now is that I'm considering myself as undecided. I'm kind of waiting for the debate to see if that kind of swings me over. So what is your question for Molly? Yeah, so my question for Molly is how does a state become a swing state? Well, thank you, Ronan. That's a great question. And I love your enthusiasm and I'm a little bit jealous of your chocolate chip pancakes. So how does a state become a swing state?

So this year for example, we tend to talk about seven states Which are basically the same seven states that the candidates were targeting four years ago But they were not the same states that the candidates were looking at in 2016 or 2012 or 2008 the candidates were looking at in 2016 or 2012 or 2008. So, I mean, by definition, a swing state is a state that can swing either way, a state that is closely contested between the two parties. But states come in and out of that column for different reasons. And so there's a couple of big factors that tend to change the map over the long arc of time.

Number one, demographic change. Say more about that. I mean, the population in this country is always shifting. People die, people move, we get immigrants and people moving from place to place. So a lot of the states that have become swing states that didn't used to be, or used to be swing states, but aren't anymore, are states that are gradually

changing demographically. I'm in Ohio right now, that used to be a swing state, Barack Obama won it twice. It's now a pretty solidly red state. And then you look at a state like Georgia, where the minority population is growing. You have a lot of population moving to the state because it's a booming economy, you get a lot more sort of young

educated professionals who maybe tend more to vote for Democrats. The other factor is the changing party ideologies. This realignment that I'm always talking about that has shifted the demographics and the ideologies of the parties. You know, I remember when Mitt Romney said he wanted to compete in Pennsylvania in 2012, a lot of people laughed because it looked like such a solidly democratic state for so long. Well, now we're talking about Pennsylvania as potentially the pivotal swing state in the 2024 election because the changing, shifting party coalitions, the Democrats becoming ever more the

party of college educated upper income voters, the Republicans becoming ever more the party of voters without college degrees, particularly men, that has brought different states onto the map and ushered different states off of the map So do you think there's any chance that the state where I live New York will ever become a swing state? Well, Donald Trump certainly thinks so, but he's probably the only one On the state level you do get different dynamics, right particularly on the gubernatorial level. You will often see a mismatch Kansas nobody thinks Kansas is a swing state, but it has a two-term democratic governor,

so does Kentucky. Nobody thinks Vermont is a swing state, but it has a Republican governor who's quite popular. So for now, I think New York is going to be a blue state for the foreseeable future. But every time a pundit says something like that, it's like a dare to the universe and something weird could happen. Right, right. And you could, things could change. And that's why politics is fun and exciting to cover as Rona knows. So let's look ahead to next week for a moment.

There is of course, the first debate on Tuesday, September 10th. What are you going to be watching for? How big of a deal is this for Trump and Harris? I think this is potentially an extremely important debate. These two candidates have never faced each other before. Kamala Harris is still very new on the presidential stage, and a lot of voters have a lot of curiosity about what she stands for and what she proposes to do as president. And they want to

see, you know, if she can take a punch and throw a punch, if she is able to go toe-to-toe with Trump on that stage. I think her candidacy significantly hinges on how she's able to perform in this debate, so it's going to be exciting. There was a little debate going into this debate about the rules, specifically whether or not the mics would be muted when it isn't a candidate's turn to speak. Harris wanted the mics on at all times, but the Trump campaign said they wanted to stick with the rules of the last debate that Trump had with Biden, where the mics were muted.

Why do you think Trump wanted to keep the mics muted? Well, the conventional wisdom on this is that he looks more presidential when he can't interrupt. So it's a way of sort of reining him in and holding him in check. I don't know if he would admit that or even if people around him would say that on the record. Well, didn't he say that he didn't really care, but he's like, we probably should stick with the rules? It seemed like it was more like his campaign than one of the rules to be the same than he did. Exactly.

And it's his campaign that is always wishing and hoping that he could be reigned in. And he is perpetually sort of dashing those hopes with his behavior. The Harris campaign wanted to change the rules for the same reason, and perhaps because she might want to interrupt him as well. With her background as a prosecutor, her performance as an interrogator in those Senate hearings

where she memorably grilled Trump administration appointees, there was a thought that if she could interrupt him and sort of try to pin him down and go after him in the way that a prosecutor might, that that might be an advantage for her. But also that, again, if Trump is relatively unfettered, if he is unleashed to be his usual erratic self, there's a feeling that that benefits the Democrats. And as we know, the mics will be muted, so we'll see how that goes. But what does a win look like for each candidate? Well, this is still a pretty tight election, and both campaigns would like to seal the

deal and put it away in some way. That seems unlikely, but it's always possible that a candidate has a breakout moment in one direction or another. So basically, I guess I'm describing this, although I don't like violence or violent metaphors, I'm describing this kind of like a boxing match that like, you always want the knockout blow. You always want a decisive victory, but these things are usually decided on points and you're just hoping to do a little bit better than the other guy. All right, well, I'll let you get back to your reporting in Ohio.

Thanks so much for talking to us in a hotel lobby and turning that into a little makeshift studio. Thank you so much. It's been fun as always, and I look forward to talking to you next week. All right, see you next week. Before we go, remember, if you want to ask Molly a question about the election,

send us an email or voice message to thejournal at wsj.com. That's thejournal at wsj.com. Red, White and Who is part of The Journal, which is a co-production of Spotify and The Wall Street Journal. Our senior producer is Rachel Humphries. Our producer is Pierce Singie. Our editor is Katherine Whalen. I'm Ryan Knudson.

With production help from Laying Tong. This episode was engineered by Peter Leonard. Our theme music is by So Wiley and remixed by Peter Leonard. Additional music by Bobby Lord. Fact-checking by Amelia Schoenbeck. Artwork by James Walton. Special thanks to Kate Leinbach, Sarah Platt,

Ben Pershing, and the whole journal team. Thanks for listening. We'll be back with another episode of Red, White & Who next Friday morning. See you then.