The Journal. - The Mutiny That Shook Putin's Grip on Power

Episode Date: June 26, 2023

It was a weekend of chaos in Russia, as forces of the paramilitary Wagner Group marched towards Moscow in a short-lived revolt. WSJ's Yaroslav Trofimov describes what happened and explains why this is the biggest threat to President Vladimir Putin in his more than two decades in power. Further Reading: - After Weekend of Chaos in Russia, Questions Remain Over Fate of Wagner  - Why Wagner Chief Prigozhin Turned Against Putin  Further Listening: - The Grim Story of a Russian Prisoner Turned Recruit  - ‘Putin’s Chef’ Now Serving Up Gains for Russia in Ukraine  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Late on Friday, the world got a signal that something big was going down in Russia. It began when Yevgeny Progozhin, leader of the paramilitary force the Wagner Group, made some incendiary accusations online. Here's our colleague Yaroslav Trofimov. Progozhin suddenly issued a series of audio messages on social media accusing the Minister of Defense and the Chief of General Staff of straddling his camps and killing a large number of people. Prigozhin was angry. He alleged his troops had just been bombed and said Russia's military had done it. And he didn't just criticize

Russia's military establishment. He went further. didn't just criticize Russia's military establishment. He went further. He said his troops were preparing to march on Moscow. Progojin said this march wasn't a coup. He called it a march for justice. Hours later, thousands of Wagner soldiers were on the move. The march came to an end almost as quickly as it started. But it represented the biggest threat to Vladimir Putin during his 23 years in power.

I think everyone was just in a bit of a whiplash because the events unfolded really, really quickly. What did that feel like for you, who's covered this for a long time? What did that feel like to see? There has been a hostility between Prigozhin and the Russian Ministry of Defense for several months, but it was really hard to imagine that this would turn into an armed insurrection. All of a sudden, the Russian states started to crumble in front of our eyes. Welcome to The Journal, our show about money, business, and power. I'm Jessica Mendoza. It's Monday, June 26th. June 26th. Coming up on the show, the revolt that's shaken Putin's grip on power. Summer is like a cocktail. It has to be mixed just right. Start with a handful of great friends.

Now, add your favorite music. And then, finally, add Bacardi Rum. And there you have it. The perfect summer mix. Bacardi. Do what moves you. Live passionately. Drink responsibly. Copyright 2024. Bacardi, its trade dress and the bat device are trademarks of Bacardi and Company Limited.

Rum 40% alcohol by volume. The man behind this weekend's mutiny has been a fixture in Putin's inner circle for years. Who is Yevgeny Prigozhin? Where did he come from? He's a former convict. He spent 10 years in Russian prisons during the Soviet times. And then he made his first millions in the first years after the collapse of communism, setting up a restaurant business. He was a restaurateur and a caterer. He hosted Putin and his foreign guests, such as President George Bush. But Prokosian's business interests expanded way beyond hospitality.

He got involved with Russia's disinformation campaign against the U.S. during the 2016 presidential election. And he founded the Wagner Group. It began as a secretive paramilitary force helping to further Russian interests around the world. Wagner started off in eastern Ukraine in 2014-15, but then really most of its business was in Africa and in Syria. So in Syria, it was helping the Russian forces to shore up the regime of President Assad, and then it branched off into commercial ventures in places like Libya, Central African Republic, Mali, and elsewhere. And what role has Wagner been playing in Ukraine?

So Wagner was only called back to help the war in Ukraine after the war began in late March after Putin's initial plan to take Kiev failed and the Russian military started regrouping and plotting a different kind of war in the eastern Donbass region. And so, as it turned out, the Wagner people were the only combat-capable Russian formation that could actually advance. And so they were instrumental in seizing the cities of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk last July, which was the really last successful Russian offensive last year. And then for the following eight months, they were battling to take the city of Bakhmut, which they finally captured after losing 20,000 people in May.

And it was the only city that the Russian forces had captured since last summer. Progozhin's success on the battlefield gave him outsized influence in Russia, including the power to criticize the country's military leadership. What exactly has he been saying? What he's been saying is that the military is mismanaged, that it doesn't have proper tactics, that the people at the top of it are stealing resources and are just plain incompetent.

For example, in May, Progozhin shared a graphic video. In it, he appears to be in a battlefield at night, standing over the corpses of Wagner soldiers. And he accuses Russian military leaders of withholding ammunition and causing their deaths. The blood is still fresh, Progozhin says, adding that his men are dying, quote, and causing their deaths. The blood is still fresh, Progozhin says, adding that his men are dying, quote,

so you can sit like fat cats in your luxury offices. Later in May, Progozhin pulled Wagner troops out of Ukraine. It's rare for Russians to be this defiant of the Kremlin. Yaroslav says that people can get thrown in jail for liking a Facebook post criticizing the Russian military. But Putin seemed to tolerate Progozhin's outbursts. In fact, for Putin, having subordinates at odds with each other could work in his favor. In fact, for Putin, having subordinates at odds with each other could work in his favor. Putin obviously has long had this habit, or it's not even a habit, it's a way of managing.

The system of having rival parts of the system kind of weaken each other so none of them would be a threat to him. But this time it kind of slipped out of control because pre-Gaussian became so strong and so uncontrollable that it actually created a real problem for Putin's authority. Putin's tolerance of Prigozhin appeared to end earlier this month. On June 10th, Russia's minister of defense issued an order. All private military companies, including Wagner, would need to come under the ministry's control. Wagner would essentially be disbanded by July 1st. So Prigozhin was facing this deadline for losing control, and he feared that the military would take action against him.

And so he decided to preempt that. And so take us through events as they unfolded on Saturday. Where were the Wagner troops headed? What was their intention? What happened there? Well, first of all, in the early morning of Saturday, they seized the military headquarters for the Southern Military District in Rostov, which is the nerve center for the war in Ukraine. After that, another column just started driving to Moscow.

And they kept going and going. How was Putin responding as all of this was unfolding? Well, you know, he made a statement on television on Saturday morning, sort of branding this as a betrayal, you know, treason, ordering his security forces to crush their uprising and sounding very determined and harsh. Meanwhile, the column of Wagner soldiers was getting closer to Moscow. And they got, you know, three quarters of the way to the Russian capital, where not a lot of people were available to stop them, to be honest. You know, there were some small barricades that some local authorities established along the way that were swept away.

You know, when Russian helicopters tried to attack the column, they were shot down. Russian military analysts say 13 Russian Air Force soldiers died in the fighting. The country was on the verge of major, major bloodshed. But then, suddenly, Prigozhin ordered his men to stop their march. Suddenly, the mutiny stopped. Why? Because Prigozhin struck a deal with the regime.

What we know about that deal is coming up next. We'll be right back. See Uber app for details. checkout. Just need a nice place to settle in? Enjoy your room upgrade. Wherever you go, we'll go together. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Visit amex.ca slash yamx. Benefits vary by card. Terms apply. The deal that brought the march on Moscow to an end happened Saturday. The man who brokered it was Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus. Why Belarus? Why that country?

Well, obviously Belarus is very closely linked with Russia. And Belarus has been offering its territory for the invasion of Ukraine. Russian planes still take off from Belarus. And so militarily, it's very closely linked with Russia. And so without a stable Russia, the stability of the Lukashenko regime in Belarus is also very much in question. So, you know, he would have been probably one of the main losers of any strife happening in Russia. And what's in this deal?

Well, we don't know exactly what the deal is. I mean, the only thing we know is that they have agreed to what Lukashenko described as a mutually advantageous solution. And then the Russian president's spokesman said that the solution involves Prigozhin sort of relocating for some time at least to Belarus. And what about for the Wagner fighters who were part of the march? Do we know anything about what their fate might be? Well, all the fighters will not face charges. That's what was announced by the Kremlin. And presumably, in some form or shape, Wagner will remain operational as an entity. You know, there have been no moves so far to disarm them.

And what do we know about why Putin and Progozhin agreed to this deal? The country really was on the brink of major bloodshed. Wagner has a lot of firepower, so thousands of people could have died. The whole country could have been thrown into a civil war. And probably neither of them wanted that if they could find a solution to the grievances. I think Putin was not very much sure that he had the strength to crush Wagner. And Wagner wasn't very sure that they could survive a full-on collision with the entire Russian armed forces, which are much larger than Wagner.

And based on what we do know about this deal, it seems like Prokhorin is to go to Belarus. Will he be safe there? What could be next for him? Well, we really don't know. We don't know if he will go to Belarus. We don't know how long for. We don't know if he will go with his men and how many of them. And we don't really know what the next plan for him is. And it also depends on what happens in Ukraine. If the Russian military were to suffer a serious defeat in the coming several months,

this contingent on Russia will grow and he could come back. So everything is kind of up in the air at this point? Completely. Everything is up in the air and Russia is in completely uncharted waters. What has the response been in Russia to the events of this weekend? I think it was shock and bewilderment. And it's not that Prigozhin is very popular among many Russians. You know, despite all the sort of wariness with 23 years of Putin's rule, people realize that, you know, Prigozhin, he was a criminal.

years of Putin's rule, people realized that, you know, Prigozhin, he was a criminal, and it would be really sort of almost a gangster regime if he were to take over. So for all its problems, the current system in Russia seems more attractive to many people in places like Moscow. That's not necessarily the case in the hinterland, where there is a lot of resentment about the injustices of the system and the redistribution of wealth away from the provinces to cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg. On Monday, Prokosin released an 11-minute audio message saying that he wasn't trying to overthrow the government, just to protest the way his group had been treated. He didn't answer questions about his whereabouts. Later, Putin addressed Russians. He said the people who'd organized the mutiny had betrayed their country, but thanked the Wagner

soldiers who turned back. He gave them the choice to join the Russian army or go to Belarus. Whatever happens next, Yaroslav says the events of this weekend have undermined Putin's power. undermined Putin's power. Well, I think this was a demonstration of weakness of the government. Putin, his image was as the strong man who, you know, sticks to his decisions, you know, never compromises, goes to the end. And then he did this about-face in the course of half a day

after vowing to destroy and crush the treasonous in a mutiny, as he put it, to finding a compromise that pardoned all involved as if nothing happened. And people in Russia have seen that and they will remember that. And anyone else planning to challenge Putin's ritual also remember that. I'm going to go. reporting in this episode by Benoit Falcón, Joe Parkinson, and Thomas Grove. If you like our show, follow us on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. We're out every weekday afternoon. Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.