The Kevin Sheehan Show - 3 NFC East Predictions

Episode Date: May 28, 2021

Kevin solo today with a theme....NFC East predictions. Plenty of info including looking at the recent history of a division that never goes the way it's supposed to go. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheehan Show. Here's Kevin. An NFC East theme to the show today. We'll get started with that in a few minutes. Just a quick reminder, if you haven't subscribed to the podcast,

it really helps if you do. It doesn't cost you a thing. Also, if you haven't rated or reviewed the podcast, especially if you're listening via Apple Podcasts, That helps us as well. The rating takes five seconds. Just give us five stars. That helps.

And if you can write a one-sentence review about how much you like the show, that helps us as well. I noticed something this morning when I was getting ready for the podcast today that I had not noticed. And maybe many of you hadn't noticed either. It's not a huge thing, but just something new to get used to as it relates to the NFL's new schedule. format. With the league moving to the 17-game regular season and three pre-season games, the season which used to open up the following week, following the final preseason game, will now open up two weeks after the final preseason game. Actually, in most cases, more than two weeks after the preseason finale. Washington is scheduled to play the Ravens at

FedEx Field on August 28th. Their opener is 15 days later against the LA Chargers. I didn't notice this before, and don't ask me how I got to it this morning. I was just looking at their schedule and looking at dates at the end of the summer as it related to the preseason games, and I noticed it for the first time. And the reason it was interesting to me, and maybe not to you, but the reason I bring it up is I think it's going to change the way teams treat the preseason. Remember, the final preseason game in the past, the fourth preseason game, was always treated, you know, as barely a game by most teams. You know, starters sat, backups, mostly players on the verge of being cut, played in the game. And that fourth preseason game really had become one of the worst sports offerings anywhere.

I mean, it was a joke. Nobody cared, nobody watched. The game was basically played to determine maybe a roster spot at the end of the roster. Often none of the roster spots were determined in that fourth and final preseason game. Teams didn't want to risk injury, and because the preseason finale was only eight, nine days prior to the regular season, was really treated as let's try to get through this without getting anybody hurt and putting some guys out there to give them a chance. Nobody cared. Nobody watched. The game was played to, you know, basically make money. Anyway, now with three preseason games, what used to be the dress rehearsal game, the game in which you would

treat the most like a regular season game, that was always the third preseason game, where you would play the starters with a half to as many as three quarters. Now with just three, the third and final of the preseason games will probably be the dress rehearsal game. So it'll still be the third game, but it'll be the final preseason game. With two weeks or more than two weeks for rest and recovery before the regular season opener, I think there's a chance that the final preseason game is going to be treated like the true rehearsal game. Maybe the second preseason game as well, given how much time there is between the final, preseason game and the season opener, there is time for rest and recovery. There is also time

to pick players that have gotten cut off of rosters or off waiver wires, get them into your system, and give them plenty of time to be prepared for an opening game. Anyway, beyond that for the most insignificant thought of the day, I just think it kind of sucks that it's going to take so long to get to the games that count when the preseason's over. Anyway, something I just noticed and wanted to share. As a further note to this, the final preseason game is three months from today, August 28th against the Ravens at FedEx Field. It'll be here before we know it. And three months from today, all the preseason predictions will be out there and accounted for most of them anyway. You know, the NFL predictions, you know, business is a business.

You know, it used to come in magazine form. Many of you like me are old enough to remember, you know, in late May, early June, Street and Smith, Lindy's, Sporting News, et cetera, coming out. I used to live for that. I used to check at Wright Aid or Peoples or Drug Fair. You know, in late May, early June, are those magazines out yet? And I'd load up on them when they came. out, and I'd read them cover to cover. Of course, those days are much in the rearview,

although I think Street and Smith is still, maybe not, maybe Street and Smith shut down in recent years. Now the predictions for the following seasons start even before the Super Bowl has been played, and they continue week in and week out on every website and every blog imaginable. On the radio show yesterday, on the team 980, somehow, and I can't remember how we got into this. My producer, Brendan, and I got into a conversation about the NFC East. But more specifically, he really thought that this was a two-team race. It's Dallas and Washington, and the Giants and the Eagles are going to be terrible, and they have no chance to hang with Dallas and Washington. So I thought today's podcast, a good idea, was to have sort of a theme.

You know, pools are getting ready to open up this weekend all over the place on this Memorial Day weekend. So I am going to do a shallow dive into the NFC East prediction pool. Actually, it's more of a thought and prediction pool. It will end with a prediction, a May 28th for a division winner. But that's the theme of the rest of today's show, the NFC East. and the theme will feature three predictions slash thoughts, if you will, on the NFC East. And I'll start with this one. Prediction number one on the NFC East.

The NFC East will not be the worst division in football this year. It won't be. Last year, you know, it had an aggregate record of 23 and 40. 23 and 40 was the aggregate record of the NFC East. At one point, it was trending towards, in terms of wins and losses, the worst in NFL history. It did not end there. In fact, in a recent ranking of like the top 25 worst divisions in the history of the NFL, it finished second to the 2014 NFC South, which was, by the way, a Ron Rivera, Carolina Panther, 7, 8, 9.5.5.5.5.5.5.5. one finish and a division title. The 2020 NFC East, last year's NFC East, was ranked as the second worst division in NFL history. And, you know, we know what happened.

Injuries were a big part of it, which I'm going to get to here in a moment. Outside of the NFC East matchups, the division went 11, 28, and 1 outside the division. You know, Washington started two and seven, started four quarterbacks, and won the division. The division overall started 12 different quarterbacks. And we were very close to having a six in ten division winner, which would have been the first time in NFL history. Washington and Philadelphia in that season finale at the link. and Philadelphia, Doug Peterson and or management decides they are going to take Jalen Hertz out of a football game that was very tight and very winnable for Philadelphia. They had a 14 to 10 lead late in the second quarter.

The game was throughout a one-score game. They took out Jalen Hertz. They put in Nate Sudfeld and they decided to tank the finish. Now, I've said this many times. I don't think that Jalen Hertz staying in the game guaranteed Philips. Philadelphia win. But it certainly improved. They would have had improved chances of winning the game. And if they had pulled it off, you would have had the first ever six-and-10 division winner. The division prediction number one is that the division will not be the worst division in football.

And here is the number one reason for that prediction. Health. Last year, all four NFC, NFC East teams finished in the top nine in the league in games lost to injury, whether those injuries were actual injuries or opt-outs before the season because of COVID or actually COVID-related absences during games. And per football, pro football outsiders, if you adjust for the more impactful losses, meaning, you know, Sequin Barclay being lost for the year versus, you know, a special teams player. If you take into account the adjustment for impactful losses of players, then the division finished as follows. Philadelphia had the third most injured or lost games in the NFL, Dallas 5th, the Giants 8th, and Washington 9th.

seven of the top teams in this adjusted games for injury, seven of the top 10 or the least injured teams, made the playoffs. Washington was the only team in the bottom third of this category to make the playoffs, but that's because they had to make the playoffs. The division winner was guaranteed an automatic spot, despite their record, which was seven and nine. By the way, if you're wondering, Tampa Bay, the Super Bowl winner finish number one in this category. The fewest games lost on the adjusted, you know, significant games lost for injury, meaning key players lost for injury. Never forget, never forget what the NFL is about more than anything. It's about health. Quarterback and health, but health is so crucial. It's a league of attrition. The healthiest teams tend to win. Will the

NFC East be bitten two years in a row by the significant losses they had last year? I'll bet against it. But beyond that, I think all four teams will obviously improve if they are healthier than last year, but I think two teams in particular will benefit the most if their best players play an entire season. Two teams in the division lost their best player for basically the majority, if not the entire. entire year. The Cowboys lost Dak Prescott. They would have won the division last year and would have had better than a 6-10 record, despite how bad they were defensively had Dak Prescott remained healthy. If he's healthy this year and play 16 games, Dallas isn't going to finish 6-10. The Giants, you can make the case that Saquan Barkley, pound-for-pound, is their best football player. If he is back and

he plays 16 games, the Giants aren't going to finish. six and ten. Washington's quarterbacks were hurt and a lot more, as we know, benched issues. They would seem to be improved at quarterback, you know, and may have their best quarterback on their roster since 2017. If Ryan Fitzpatrick plays at least at the level he played at in Miami the last two years and he plays 16 games, Washington should be improved offensively. The Eagles in aggregate in terms of having the most games lost, third in the league among all teams in the league, first among the teams in the division, you start getting a lot of their key players back. They'll be improved, even though they have big question marks, certainly at the quarterback position.

Prediction number one on this NFC East-themed show today. The NFC East won't be the worst division in football next year, and again, I'll go further. I think there will be three divisions that'll be worse. I think the AFC South will be worse. I think Houston and Jacksonville will likely be awful teams this year, even though I think Indian Tennessee will be pretty good. I think the AFC East could potentially be worse. Buffalo's good, but big huge question marks around New England and the quarterback situation, Miami and Tuatunga Viloa, and the Jets starting a rookie at quarterback. And then I'll go with the NFC North as a possible division that in aggregate will be worse than the NFC East. Green Bay may or may not have Aaron Rogers. If they don't, they take a big

dive. Minnesota, I think, will be improved, but Detroit and Chicago, huge question marks around both of those teams. Detroit losing their starting quarterback, seemingly in rebuild mode, in Chicago to a certain degree, drafting a rookie quarterback a little bit in rebuild mode. So I will go with the NFC East will be sort of in the middle of the pack. of divisions this year, and that there will be at least three divisions that are worse. The AFC South, the AFC East, and the NFC North. All right, there you go. Prediction number one, the NFC East won't be the worst division in football,

and in fact it'll be a lot better than most people think. Prediction numbers two and three coming up right after this word from one of our sponsors. The Washington Redskins offensive line is one of football's best, but today their reputation will be challenged by Lawrence Taylor and a fired up New York defense. The Giants are confidently riding the crest of a six-game winning streak. And with the right call from Phil Sims, they hope to roll a seven today. Giants also face some stiff challenges today.

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Today it's the New York Giants against the Redskins of Washington, live from RFK Stadium, sold out for the 157 consecutive time. Believe me, there is no place to play, no more enthusiastic setup than RFK. Oh, yeah, the NFC East back in the good old days. It's an NFC East-themed podcast today here in late May. Prediction number one is that the NFC East will not be the worst division in football. In fact, it'll be much improved in the overall standings in the NFL. I've got two more predictions on the division here on May 28th,

all by the way subject to change between now and early September. Prediction number two, the winner of the NFC East will win a tightly contested division race among all four teams, but ultimately the division winner won't be the division favorite, the Dallas Cowboys. prediction number two, all four teams are going to fight it out in a tightly contested division race this year. But the division winner will not be the division favorite right now, the Dallas Cowboys.

Now let me share with you what the current odds are in the NFC East. I took basically three different sites, including MyBooky at MyBooky.ag, use my promo code, Kevin D.C., and you can wager on the NFC East right now. The overall average odds of three different sites. Dallas is plus 110. They're a favorite in the NFC East. Washington is the second pick at plus 260. Philly and the Giants roughly have the same odds to finish third and fourth at plus 450.

Now, for those of you that always say, I don't understand what that means. Basically, it means if you pick. Washington to win the division and you bet a hundred bucks on Washington, you'll win $260. They're plus 260. If you bet $10, you'd win $26. All right. For Philadelphia, they're plus $450. You bet $100 on Philadelphia, you'd win $450 if they won the division. Dallas, you'd win much less. You're risking $100 to win $110. That makes them the favorite. All right. the favorite you win the least amount on, the longer shot you win the most on if it comes through. Now, I went through the other divisions, and the NFC East by far is the most tightly contested

in terms of the odds heading into the season. The gap in the NFC East between Dallas at plus 110 and the Giants and Eagles at plus 450 is the narrowest gap. It's the tightest division race in the NFL based on the odds. I'll just run through some of the other divisions. In the NFC North, Green Bay's minus 160 to win the division, Detroit's plus 1,600. That's a massive gap between top pick or favorite and the longest shot in the division. Tampa Bay's minus 200 to win the division. Carolina and Atlanta are plus 800. The Rams and 49ers are plus 175 to win the division, Arizona's plus 650. Buffalo's minus 160 in the AFC East, the jets are plus 2,000. By the way, the minus means that instead of betting $100 to win $260 on Washington when they're

plus 260, if you bet on Buffalo at minus 160, you've got to wager $160 to win $100. All right, Buffalo's a big-time favorite. Baltimore's plus 140, Cincinnati's plus 1,400. The Colts are minus 105 in the AFC South. Houston's plus 2,000. And the chiefs are big-time favorites in the AFC West at minus 250. The Raiders are plus 900. Going into this year right now based on the odds, sort of a consensus or an average of three different sports books looking at division odds, the NFC East is predicted to be the most competitive division in football. That is not the only reason I'm predicting a tightly contested division race, but certainly it is just a point, a data point to say that Vegas, the odds makers, agree that the NFC East going in has the most competitive division race top to bottom.

There's something else, though, history of the NFC East. What a history the NFC East has. and I did a little homework this morning. Let me get some of these pages of notes that I took down. You know, most of you know, that the NFC East, that there has not been a repeat winner in the division since 2004. 2004 was the last of four consecutive division titles by Donovan McNabb, Andy Reed, and the Philadelphia Eagles.

They won the division in 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004. Starting in 2005, we have not had a repeat division winner in the division. In 2005, it was the Giants, followed by the Eagles, then Cowboys, then Giants, then Cowboys, then Eagles, then Giants, then Washington, then Philadelphia, then Dallas, then Washington, then Dallas, then Philadelphia, then Washington. No repeat winners in the last. 16 years of the division. But I went back and I did some homework and I actually found these results fascinating. I don't know if you will or not, but listen very carefully about the division,

this division, more than any other. Because every year it basically results. The results are results that weren't predicted prior to the season starting. I went back and I found the odds pre-season, the division odds pre-season, back to 2005. That was the year that started this run of no repeat winners in the NFC East. In 2005, the Giants won the division. Prior to 2005, they were picked to finish last in the division. Philly was predicted to finish first, Dallas was predicted to finish second, Washington third,

the Giants were predicted to finish last, they went 11 and 5 and won the division. In 2006, Philadelphia won the division with a 10 and 6 record. Guess what? Pre-season odds for the NFC East in 2006, the Eagles were predicted to finish last. Dallas was predicted to finish first, Washington and Giants, basically the same odds. Eagles were the long shot to win the division, and they won it. The following year, Dallas won the division at 13 and 3. They were predicted to finish second in the division. In 2008, the Giants won the division. They were predicted to finish second in the division. I could go through it year by year, but I'm going to get to the conclusion of going through

each of the last 16 seasons in the NFC East of finding and identifying, which I was able to find on Pro Football Reference, the preseason odds to win the NFC East and then the final standings. Over the last 16 years, seven times the team picked to finish last won the division.

By the way, Washington in 2012, When they won the division, picked to finish last. Washington in 2015, when they won the division at 9 and 7, picked preseason to finish last in the division. Last year in 2020, Washington wins the division at 7 and 9. Guess what? They were picked to finish last in the division. Washington's three division championship teams of the last 16 seasons,

all three of those seasons they were picked to finish last in the NFC East. Over the last 16 years, seven of the 16 division winners were picked preseason to finish dead last in the division. Five times over the last 16 years, excuse me, the team picked to finish third in the division based on preseason odds, won the division. 12 times out of the last 16 years, the team finished to pick third or fourth, won the division. The team picked to finish second place in the division, won the division three times, and then get this, in the last 16 seasons, there's only been one preseason favored team in the NFC East that actually won the division. The 2019 Eagles were picked to win the division, and they won the division with a 9-and-7 record. By the way, they had to fight like hell just to get there.

One time in the last 16 seasons in this division has the preseason favorite actually won the division. It's really amazing. I think we all knew what an unpredictable division this has been over a long period of time with no repeat winner. I'm not so sure I knew what the preseason picks were and then putting those side by side with the final results. Seven times, more than any other pick, seven times the team picked to finish last, won the division. Seven out of 16 years, five out of 16 years the team picked to finish third won the division. So 12 out of 16, 75% of the time. the teams picked to finish third or fourth, one of those two teams will win the division.

And only 25% of the time, one of the teams picked to finish first or second wins the division. Washington is the second pick, Dallas is the first pick this year. That's a pretty crazy run. Now, every year is its own entity. And at some point, we would have in 2004 been talking about the likelihood of the division champion repeating. Because Philadelphia had won four in a row, and Dallas at one point, just a few years earlier, had won five in a row. And I guarantee you that the Eagles and the Cowboys in those years were the favorites to win the division. But we are on a 16-year run of utter unpredictability when it comes.

to the NFC East. Utter unpredictability. Prediction number two, the winner of the NFC East will win a tightly contested division race, but ultimately the division winner won't be the division favorite, the Dallas Cowboys.

If they are, they're just going to become the second team in 17 seasons to be the favorite and win it. By the way, there's another reason I'm not going to pick the Dallas Cowboys to win the division right now, at least on May 28th, subject to change. It's not just history. Dallas was a bad team defensively last year. And other than the addition of Dan Quinn, it's too much of a question mark to be that bad defensively and pick this team as like an obvious division winner. I understand why they're the favorite. They're the favorite because,

Dak Prescott is viewed as a top 10 quarterback and the only one in the division. He wasn't there last year, and when he was, they were really dynamic offensively. And they're looking around the rest of the division and saying, you know what, they've got DAC, they've got that offense, and everybody else has major question marks. That leads me to prediction number three. The winner of this division, I could just go on history and say that the winner of this division will be either the Eagles or the Giants, because based on the last 16 years, there's a 75% chance that the division winner will be one of those two teams.

But I believe that the division winner will come from the following two teams. I think it will either be Washington or I think it'll be the New York football giants. And go ahead and tweet me all you want about how I've liked the Giants the last couple of years and been dead wrong. You're right. It's true. But to me, these two teams have the lowest downside. Washington's too good defensively to be a bad team. Dallas could be so bad defensively, they could be a bad team. And Philadelphia could be very subpar offensively that could lead to them being a bad team. team. The Giants in Washington don't have a massive downside on either side of the ball. Washington, to me, and the Giants have the lowest combined sort of low-end downsides on offense and defense.

Dallas might be bad defensively. Philly might be bad offensively without a quarterback. Washington should be really good on defense and improved on offense. The Giants should be pretty good on defense and much improved on offense. The biggest wild card in the division to me is Daniel Jones. In year three, but in year two with Jason Garrett, they have given him weapons. He's getting his best weapon back in Saquan Barclay. Saquan Barclay is a legitimate difference maker

at a position that doesn't always produce a significant difference maker, but I believe he is one. They added Kenny Galday. They added Cadarius Tony via the draft. They added John Ross, if you care about that. They added a tight end, a veteran tight end, to go with Evan Ingram and Kyle Rudolph. Defensively, they are talented and they are young in spots. And they played together last year, and I liked what they did at times defensively.

And then I'll throw this in just as a guess. I think Joe Judge, after watching the Giants for one year, I think Joe Judge gets it. I think that he looks like at least through a year to have been the right choice. Now, I think he's a hard-nosed disciplinarian, but in that first year, with all the injuries they had, they were in almost every football game they played. They went six in ten, but they had losses. to Philadelphia where they had an 11-point lead in the fourth quarter on a Thursday night. They lost to Tampa and a game that should have gone to overtime, if not for a terrible call,

on Monday night football. They lost close games to the Cowboys, the game that Prescott got hurt in. They lost a winnable game against the Rams, a winnable game against the Chicago Bears. They were routed by the 49ers early in the year, and they got handled pretty much by Arizona in Cleveland when Daniel Jones, got hurt and wasn't playing in Colt McCoy was. Daniel Jones also, before he got hurt, had started to improve as a quarterback. And I am a Daniel Jones believer at this point. I don't think I'm a believer in him becoming an elite quarterback, but I think I am a believer in him becoming a legitimate

top half of the league's starting quarterback. I don't think we've been able to see that as much because of the lack of weapons. But he had started to improve last year, and he had a three-game stretch late in the season, I'm sorry, a five-game stretch late in the season of no interceptions, no interceptions. When they went, you know, with him even banged up when they went four and two to finish the year.

I think the Giants and Washington are the two teams that will ultimately be there in week, eight, week 18 this year. And I think that they will have a chance the two of them to win the division in a tightly contested division race. But I think the final game of the year, Washington at New York on January 9th may determine the division winner. Those are the two teams. I would lean right now, giants.

All right. One last thing, and it's on Chase Young right after this word from one of our sponsors. Last thought on the show today. It's about Chase Young. First of all, let me wish Rick Doc Walker a happy birthday. Doc's got a podcast. Steve Solomon, our good friend Sally, is helping him out. You can find that podcast at patreon.com slash Doc Walker, and he's got a link to it right off of his Twitter page at Rick Doc Walker. Happy birthday, Doc. Doc was listening to my radio show this morning when we were talking about Chase Young. I took probably an hour's worth of calls on a simple question. Would you have preferred Chase Young be at the OTA days? He missed all three OTA days, so did Montez sweat.

Charles Leno missed three days, but he had a baby so that was excused, even though it's voluntary, they still sort of told reporters, the beat reporters, as to why he wasn't there. Stephen Sims Jr. missed the first two days. They were excused and then he was back for the third day. There was no word on whether or not Chase Young or Montez Sweat had reasons for not being there. And if they did have legitimate, like, real reasons, like, you know, they had issues and there was something going on with family or something going on with them or whatever. I mean, then this conversation is moot. But let's, as we did yesterday, just assume that it was more of, these are voluntary.

And if it was mandatory, we'd be there. but it's voluntary, and if we don't have to be there, we're not going to be there. And we talked about it yesterday, Tommy and I did, and I did it on radio this morning. I don't think this is going to be the difference between, you know, 11 and 6 and 9 and 8. I don't. It's not the point. The point is what Doc wrote to me this morning via text as I was doing this segment on radio. Doc, a motivational speaker and a leadership motivational.

speaker for many, many companies. The first one he sent me read as follows. A captain never needs to be told how and when to lead. Meaning, you know, the Players Union and the CBA, hey man, this is voluntary. You don't have to do it. That's not a driver in his decision making if he's a true captain, if he's a true leader. He can read the room and determine whether or not it's something he needs to be at, regardless of what the player's agreement with the owners is.

We all know that it's voluntary, but 86 men decided it wasn't voluntary. They decided to be there. They decided that they read the room and understood it was important to the coaches, it was important to changing the culture of the team, et cetera, et cetera. And this is a player that has said, look at me. I'm going to be the leader in changing what's gone on around here for two days. decades. A captain never needs to be told how and when to lead. The second text Doc sent me during my radio show this morning. He said, I'm on your side. A true leader never puts himself in position

to be questioned. You know, Doc's not referring to media people. He's not referring to fans. He's referring to those people in that locker room. The coach is the players. And it's very possible that, you know, eight out of ten don't give a shit. Maybe nine out of ten. Don't care. Don't if he was there or not. But if one out of ten cares, if there are a few people in that building that are like, really, I'm here, I had a lot of shit to do.

They were voluntary for me too, but I kind of read the room and felt that it was pretty important, as did 85 other people, why didn't he? Somebody questioned why he wasn't there. And less again, there was a legitimate reason. And if there were a legitimate reason,

obviously this conversation is meaningless. Anyway, I thought Doc with those two texts. A captain never needs to be told how and when to lead, and a true leader never puts himself in a position to be questioned. We're spot on. I couldn't have said it better. Happy birthday, Richard. For all of you, I will definitely be back early next week.

It's a holiday weekend. I may have a podcast over the weekend. I'm working on a potential interview for tomorrow or Sunday. I'll obviously let you know via social media if there is an additional podcast this weekend. Have a great holiday weekend. Really appreciate all of your support. We'll talk soon.