The Kevin Sheehan Show - 4-1 Start In Sight

Episode Date: October 4, 2024

Kevin today with a Washington-Cleveland preview and pick to start the show. He talked a bit about the Thursday Night thriller in Atlanta as well. Jay Gruden jumped on to talk Jayden Daniels, preview Browns-Commanders, and give out his "NFL Lock of the Week". Kevin finished up with 14 "Smell Test" College and NFL picks.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it, but you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Chean Show, here's Kevin. To clarify, you said you would talk about quarterback next week. If you guys are eliminated today by what happens at 4 o'clock, is Sam Howling consideration? We can be eliminated? Yeah, if the Packers beat the Vikings, then you guys are eliminated.

Do you guys remember that? That was the last time they played Cleveland. It was on January 1st, New Year's Day, 2023. the last game of that season. At home, needing a win over the Browns to put themselves into the driver's seat to make the postseason. Washington was a two and a half point favorite in that game. Most people expected them to beat Cleveland. The Browns were six and nine coming into that game. And Washington did not win that game. They lost 24 to 10. And then afterwards, the head coach, Ron Rivera was asked by Grant Paulson if he would consider starting Sam Howe in the season finale

if they were eliminated later that day. And O'Rond had no idea that they could be eliminated that day. It was a cringeworthy moment for Ron Rivera, and they were eliminated later on that afternoon, and Sam Hal did start the season finale. in a meaningless game against the Dallas Cowboys. The show is presented, as always, by Window Nation. Call them at 86690 Nation or head to Windonation.com if you need new windows. Jay Gruden next segment, and then the smell test in the final segment.

Oh, no, he's not. Is he? Is he going to talk about you know who? This from Jay, not Gruden, Jay writes, go ahead, rub it in on Kirk, you deserve it, he was extraordinary last night. This from Petey, I better not hear one word on you know who today. We got our own guy now, no reason to live in his past. From Sandy O4, Kirk's a trigger for many of your listeners, but please feel free to take a few minutes to talk about one of the best passing games in NFL history. From Joey, okay, Kirk is great, but please don't try to change the fact that he's not clutch and he can't win the big one.

From Gary, serious question, does cousins have a chance at the Hall of Fame? And then Jay Gruden, our guest in the next segment, on Twitter last night after Kirk threw the overtime touchdown pass to beat the Buccaneers in a thriller, 36 to 30. he tweeted out at least we got a third round supplemental draft pick for Kirk yeah that was sarcasm and by the way the term is

compensatory pick but nobody cares so look honestly I'm not going to spend that much time at all it was a great night for sports I mean the NFL game the Atlanta Tampa Bay game was awesome part of a night that included and I watched this as well Pete Alonzo's three-run homer in the ninth to lift the Mets past Milwaukee and into the next round.

That tension of playoff baseball, you know, a third and final deciding game in that best of three. The Brewers went back-to-back homers in the seventh. They've got a two-nothing lead. And with two on, Alonzo goes opposite field. That was thrilling. And now they get the Phillies. We get a quadruple header tomorrow in the game ones of the ALDS and the NLDS. But man, baseball this time of year is so good.

The football game, though, last night really was the best Thursday night game we've seen in a long time. And yes, you know who, Kirk Cousins, you know who being the Galdi description of Kirk, which I love. He was incredible. 42 of 58 for 509 yards, including driving the team at the end of regulation into field goal range to kick a game-tying field goal, which by the way, the play with 12 seconds where they throw over the middle and they're able to get up and clock it with one second left was unbelievable. I remember watching something several years ago. It was Brady talking about the amount of time where you could still throw the ball over the middle. I think it was Brady and Belichick, and they said it was 13 seconds. These guys had 12 last night.

They pulled it off. The performance was, you know, incredible from a lot of standpoint. It was the first primetime game since Brady and only the second all-time that a quarterback threw for over 500 yards in a win in prime time. It was not, you know, I saw a lot of people saying, Is this the most yards ever in a game? No, it wasn't. 509 is actually 45 yards short of the all-time record, which Norm Van Brockland set. Listen to this. Back in 1951, Norm Van Brockland threw for 554 in a game back in 1951, 73 years ago. That's crazy that a game in 1951 from a passing standpoint,

still holds up today. Kirk's 500-yard-plus performance was the 15th biggest yardage game of all time. You know, as far as the narratives, or as Joey calls them the facts, which of course Joey is somewhat wrong on, he's now got 31 game-winning drives. He's got 25 fourth-quarter comebacks. The 31 game-winning drives ties him for 20th all time. Yeah, he's been clutch. I mean, please. And among quarterbacks that are currently playing he's fifth behind Stafford, Wilson, Carr, and Rogers.

Of course he's been a clutch quarterback. At this point, only somebody super silly and unsurious would say that. One of the top guys in this era, last five, six, seven years with the game on the line in the fourth quarter. Now, what is true is that he hasn't won the big game, you know? By the way, this year, the three wins for Atlanta, all last drive wins. And they should have had an opportunity in the Chiefs game,

but they didn't call an obvious pass interference in the back of the end zone. But the Falcons are still, you know, finding their way. I still think Tampa is going to be, I don't know, both teams are going to battle it out in that division. You could see it coming with Atlanta a few weeks ago. they were starting to get into a rhythm, but just they were beating themselves with penalties. But they're right there, and that's going to be a good race in a division that's far better than I think people thought it would be. But yeah, for Gary, who writes, you know, about Hall of Fame, no, no, no, no, no, no. He's not in the midst of a Hall of Fame career.

Not yet, anyway. No, in all seriousness. the numbers he's putting up, they are going to end up being in terms of passing yardage and passing touchdowns and completion percentage and game winning drives. They're going to be Hall of Fame worthy in two years more likely than not. But here's the bottom line. I mean, he's got one wild card playoff win in his career. He'd have to go on a heater in the postseason with the Falcons the next two years to be in that conversation. I guess it's possible, but I don't view Kirk Cousins.

As much as I love him, I do not view him as a Hall of Fame quarterback. The Jay Gruden tweet, sweet Jesus, man, on the list of incompetent things done during the Dan era, the handling of the Kirk Cousins situation with his sidekick Bruce Allen is near the top of the list. Jay's tweet, of course, a reference to the mere third round compensatory pick that they got back for losing him in free agency versus the haul that they could have gotten back from San Francisco if they had traded him to the 49ers, but they were too petty to do it. This was some high-level stupidity during that stretch by Bruce and Dan.

Bruce never had a clue as to what Kirk was worth. And after low-balling him for the final time, not trading him to the Shanahan's for what would have been at least the number two overall pick. And Jay Gruden thinks a lot more. We'll ask him about that. Was a special kind of dumb and a special kind of petty. But those people are gone. And now we have a three-and-one football team with a potential superstar at quarterback. And I'm excited about that.

Can't wait for Sunday, 1 p.m. in Landover. to be four and one for the first time since 2008. That was Jim Zorn's first of his two brutal seasons. 16 years since they had a legitimate good start to the season. Three and one isn't really, you know, what I would call a great start. It's a good start, you know, but if you go to three and two, it's just okay. Four and one, really good start. Four wins in a row would seem to be amazing. They've won three in a row, But actually, they won four in a row in 2021, in 2020, two seasons with Ron, and in 2016. And of course, they won seven in a row back in 2012. But within the last 10 years, they've actually won four games in a row in the last 10 years.

Actually, they probably did it in 2015 as well. I didn't even look up that season. I will real quickly. Did they win four in a row at the end of that season to clinch their playoff berth? I think they won three in a row or three out of the final four in 2015. 2015, oh no, they won their last four games. Yeah, so they've won, in the last 10 years, they've won four in a row four times. 2020, 2021, 2015, 2016, 2016.

Anyway, this game Sunday against Cleveland is not a lot of, not the layup that I think a lot of people believe it will be. ESPN does its expert picks on each game. All three of the so-called experts picked Washington. NFL.com had five of those so-called expert pickers. All five of them picked Washington on Sunday. USA Today had three pickers, all of them picked Washington. Overwhelmingly, wherever you go, there is a buzz for Jaden Daniels in the Washington offense right now. And everybody thinks they're going to beat Cleveland on Sunday. And then a lot of people have clearly started to talk about Washington as a potential playoff team and division winner, as we have. Through the first four games of the season,

there are two major surprise teams in the NFL, Minnesota and Washington. I wouldn't put Seattle into the major surprise category because I think some people thought they'd be good. But nobody thought Minnesota or Washington would be good. The Vikings are 4-0. They play that Sunday morning game against the Jets. That is always fun. Sunday morning football from London,

and that's a good game. It might be in the smell test. And then Washington's 3-1 with a chance to get to 4-1. I am not feeling super confident about this one. And it's not just my contrarianism, all right? It isn't. I contrarianism would be the proper way to say that word. I think Cleveland is better than their record at this point. I'm not saying a lot better.

They're not a lot better, but I think they could easily be three and one as much as they are one and three. They could have and maybe should have beaten the Raiders last week. They had a chance, certainly to beat the Giants in week. in week three, right? I think Cleveland, if they're going to have a season this year, which they expected to have a season, they went to the playoffs last year, they really need this game. This should be a desperate team, dangerous team situation with them, because one and four would be almost impossible to recover from in the division that they're in, in particular.

So this is a major need to have game for Cleveland, and I think they're a bit better than their record suggests. It's not that I'm feeling confident because of anything having to do with Washington. I don't think they're enamored with the attention that they're getting, and therefore they're going to come in, you know, overconfident, or that they're due. I don't believe in the do theory. I think that the Browns are going to be the best defensive team they face, certainly since the opener,

with Jim Schwartz being the best coordinator they have faced since Todd Bowles in that group in the opener. But they've had four games of tape to game plan for Washington. The Bucks did not have that for the opener. Arizona was not very good on defense. The Bengals were banged up. The Giants were just okay. This is the most legit test for the Washington offense that they have seen. I almost want to discount the opener because they did face a good defense,

but, you know, week one's just kind of tricky. I do not see, you know, seven drives, seven scores, no punts this week. You know, or eight drives, seven scores, one punt this week. I don't see that. I see a desperate Cleveland team. I see a team that will be capable on the other side of the ball of running the ball. I think Kevin Stefansky is a solid coach. He's an offensive guy.

They will not have Nick Chubb on Sunday, even though he's eligible to come off injured reserve. Jerome Ford and Watson can both run the football, you know, against Washington. And Washington's been susceptible to the run. It's the NFL too, man. Things change quickly. Two weeks ago we were far from convinced that this season would amount to anything. They were one in one. The quarterback had played okay, but they had barely squeaked by the giants who didn't have a kicker,

which is really what cost them the game. Two weeks later, here we are, three and one, an insanely productive offense that's put up 80 points and does not punt. What's it going to look like two weeks from today? You know, one thing that I don't think is going to look a lot different two weeks from today, and that's what gives me hope just about the season in general, is I think Jaden Daniels is going to continue to impress us. Now, will there be more mistakes? Of course there will be.

It'd be hard for there not to be. He's barely made any in the last two games. But, you know, the rest of the team, stay tuned. I'm thinking not easy on Sunday, but God, it would be good to get this one Sunday. You know, to get this game against a team your favorite to be at home, to get another win to make it 4-1 heading to Baltimore, which would feel like in the moment next week at 4-1, like one of the biggest early season games they've played in a long, long time.

That would be fun. They'd be in a decent spot, too, with 4-1. wins already banked. Sunday's just one of those where you don't want to look back later on in the season and say, damn, if we had just beaten the Browns at home in week five. All right, time for my keys to a win over Cleveland. Washington beats Cleveland if. Here we go. Number one, stop the run. Washington is giving up the second most yards per carry in the league. Everybody has run it on them since the second half of the Tampa game. Now, Cleveland's banged up along their offensive line, which is a good thing for, you know, the commanders this week.

Let's hope Allen and Payne and the D-Ns can do a much more consistent job. The linebackers can do a more consistent job. I think Cleveland's plan coming into it, even though they have been a team that's tried to open it up a little bit more than maybe they are capable of doing, I think their plan should be to run the football. You know, run the ball with Jerome Ford, with Deshawn Watson, the quarterback. And by the way, try to keep Washington's offense off the field. Like other teams are now thinking, man, we don't want that Jaden Daniels on the field. We want Jaden Daniels and that offense on the sideline.

We need to run the ball. We need to possess the ball and keep Washington's offense off the field. It's pretty hysterical to kind of think of it that way. But teams are going to start viewing Washington that way if they continue. to be as prolific as they've been offensively. But Jerome Ford's averaging 5.2 yards a pop, but he's only carried the ball an average of just under 10 times a game. I think Stefansky's smart.

I've watched. They've tried to throw it more than they've run it this year. No Nick Chubb. But I think their plan on Sunday is going to be run the football. We should be able to run it at them. Everybody else has. And they do have a quarterback that can be a big part of the football. their rush attack. From Washington's standpoint, you've got to stop the run. If it means load up

the box to stop the run and make Watson beat you with his arm, do it. But stop the run once and for all. Because if this continues to be a major issue, they're just major limitations to what they can achieve this season, no matter how good they are offensively. This is not a good offensive football team they're facing. I think it's a better team than they've shown than the results have shown, but it's still not a great offensive team. They're going to try to run it because that's Washington's weakness. If you can't stop the run again against this team, given that you are kind of facing a one-dimensional team already. Now, Watson does have an arm. He can throw the football, but they're just not, you know, together offensively, cleveland.

Cleveland. Stop the runs, number one. Number two, use Cleveland's aggression defensively against them. You know, with Miles Garrett and Zadarius Smith, they're trying to get to the quarterback. When Washington's in that zone read look, they're trying to rush the passer. Use it against them. You know, Brian Robinson, Jr., right now looks like he'll play even though he hasn't practiced much, but Quinn had some, you know, encouraging news about him. They're going to take it up until game time.

If it's not him, I would imagine we'll see Chris Rodriguez, but of course we'll see Echler and McNichols. Echler apparently, you know, ready to play. But use Cleveland's defensive end aggression against them. Zone read keepers, zone read sticks if they're playing quarterback. Quick game, get it out in a hurry, let Diami, who will likely play. a little bit more, maybe get more targets with Noah Brown out. Yes,

Noah Brown and Cleland Farrell both ruled out. Zichias, Terry, you can make some plays from the line of scrimmage against this team. Swing passes to Echler. They're a good defensive team now, and they've got good corners. I mean, Denzel Ward can flat out play,

and they're a good tackling team, but use their aggression against them. Number three, Washington beats Cleveland. If you've got a plan for Miles Garrett, You know, the Washington offensive line's been good. The quarterback's been excellent. Everything offensively has been great.

They have not played a team that is as good defensively or as capable defensively as Cleveland is, and they certainly haven't played a player like Miles Garrett yet. Dexter Lawrence is good. Tampa's got some good defensive players. Miles Garrett wrecks football games. That's what he does for a living, and he's done it time and time again over the years. And you can't let him do that on Sunday. You cannot let him ruin the game.

I love the way the offensive line's been physical. I love the fact that they've been able to run the football. They're the number one run-block win-rate team in the league. They're the number eight pass-block win-rate offensive line in the league. But you have to have a plan for Miles Garrett. You've got to chip him when you're throwing the football. You've got a double. You've got a chip.

And I think you can use, like I said in the second point, use his aggression at times against him. How about this? This isn't necessarily a key to the game, but it's an interesting part of Sunday's game. So Washington, as you know, has the number one offense on third down in the league, number one in the league offensively. They're going to go against Cleveland's defense,

which is seventh best on third down in the league. So the number one third down offense against the number seven third down defense. It's a hell of a matchup. But how about this one? How about Cleveland's worst third down offense in the league against Washington's worst third down defense in the league? That's the matchup. The 32nd ranked third down offense against the 32nd ranked third down defense. something's got to give.

Here's something that I think will be important to this game. Cleveland has been self-destructive, especially on offense. By the way, their offense overall ranks 32nd in the league in DVOA. Few things in watching last week's game. They had an 82-yard touchdown pass nullified by a penalty. They had a long pass to Amari Cooper, bounce off Amari Cooper, and into the hands, of Raider Safety Trevor Morrig. Just,

this is why I said, like, they're not nearly as awful as everything would indicate. You know, in a game, they had an 82-yard touchdown pass called back. They had a big pass that would have led to a score, bounce off a good receiver's hands, and land in the hands of the opposing safety.

They had a missed extra point last week by our guy Dustin Hopkins. which turned out to be huge because they were down four instead of down three when they were threatening inside the Raiders 10-yard line at the end of the game on a fourth and three, Deshaun Watson got sacked. He holds it too long. But that missed extra point was a big one because they would have been kicking a field goal in that fourth down to force overtime.

Cleveland's also a team that's gotten penalized a bunch, fourth most in the league this year. They've really been a self-destructive team. got a lot of injuries along the offensive line. That's been a big part of the offensive woes, but it's been a lot of self-destruction, you know, for them. They have two losses to the Giants and the Raiders, which you could say were games that were lost more than they were won by the opponent. That's the league a lot of the time. We understand that. But that's why I'm just, you know, a little bit cautious as to what Washington's facing. This is a one-and-three team that still has some talent and has some playmakers on offense,

banged up along the offensive line. Again, that's big going into this game. They were a playoff team last year. They had big expectations. And if they clean it up a little bit in terms of giveaways, penalties, you know, miss PATs, etc., they're going to be in this game. Next on the list of Washington wins if. I know how good they've been in the red zone the last two games,

but remember the last time they were at home. They were 0 for 6 in the red zone, but they won the game with seven field goals from Austin Cybert in his first game. So next up on Washington wins if, don't be afraid to kick field goals. I would not be overly aggressive in fourth down situations in this particular game because I think the context of this game is low scoring. It's not like you've got to be thinking, oh, we have to score touchdowns to beat this team. No, you can kick a lot of field goals and beat.

this team. I think you can. So don't take points off the board with some fourth and four analytics decision when you got a guy that hasn't missed yet. That's pretty much it. You know, the cliche stuff, don't beat yourself, and Washington has not done that this year. And stay healthy, you know, during the game. All right, my prediction in this one, I see a very close game. And yes, trust me, there's a very good chance that Cleveland will be in the smell test. Sorry. Washington 22, Cleveland 20, Austin Seibert, 5 for 5 on field goals. Rate us and review us on Apple and Spotify as well. It's a big help. Jay Gruden, after these words from a few of our sponsors.

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Fridays during football season, unless the host doesn't save the recording before a power outage. That sucked last week. That was on me. That was certainly not on Jay. we had a, my God, we had a phenomenal 20 minutes of discussion. It's too bad people couldn't hear it. It was great. I thought last week was your best performance by far. Well, thank you. Nobody will know. Nobody will know. It's gone forever, Kevin, because you don't know how to save your videos. It was bad timing. It was bad timing. All right, let's start with Jaden. Four games into his career. He has been off the charts.

great. The best quarterback start to a rookie season really ever by a lot of numbers and metrics. The greatest completion percentage to start a season for any quarterback, rookie or not. What's impressed you the most? Everything. There's really nothing that he's done that hasn't impressed me. His demeanor, his poise, his accuracy, his anticipation, his ability to escape, make plays off schedule. There's really nothing about his game that I do not like other than the fact that I scared every time he gets tackled. I'm like, where do you get up? You know, other than that, he's playing out of his mind right now. He's playing as good as

any quarterback in the National Football League. He's got the skill set that this thing will travel for a very long time because I just love the fact that he does not get rattled ever. I can just, you know, you can just see that in quarterback sometimes. You know, you look at other quarterbacks, you can see their eyeballs for their face master rattled a little bit. But this guy will never get rattled. He's got the, he's got the mirror you want. You just said he's playing as well as any quarterback in the league. We had a conversation yesterday about quarterbacks just in the NFC. Right now, who would you take in front of him for not just the present,

but let's just say the next five years in the NFC? Maybe Jordan Love, maybe. He's coming off an injury. I don't think. I think that's about it. that was Yeah that was my number two also That was because of the age

And because I love his game So it wouldn't be golf It wouldn't be DAC for you No I'd much rather have this guy I'd much rather have Jaden I just love the upside The things you can do with them

I think you can do everything you do It's golf You know he's great on first down Accurate anticipation You saw him go 18 for 18 the other day But I think that Strong running game Jaden can do all that stuff as well

But golf's experience, going to a Super Bowl, you can argue that one. You could argue Jordan Love, he's got a huge upside. He could argue, I know, Gino played a Vass off, too. He did, didn't he? Yeah, I mean. What about Purdy? I like Purdy. I mean, Purdy is, but like I said, I think if you put, if you switch roles,

if you put Purdy with Washington right now, you put Jayden with San Francisco, I think San Francisco would be better with Jaden. That makes sense. I think we would be worse with Purdy than we are with Jaden. I don't know. I think that makes sense. That's a pretty amazing statement, you know, that there is maybe one quarterback in the NFC four games into his career

that you would take over. Yeah, we could all look like idiots in a month, but I just don't know how this guy will get worse because he's very accurate. He's got great boys. he can escape out of, he's like Houdini and some of these escapes that he has. What's coming, though, from the defensive standpoint? You know, if you're a defensive coordinator, you've got four games of tape now.

What do you do to slow him and this offense down? That's what I can't wait to see. I really can't. I think Arizona try to do different things. I try to rush three and play a lot of eyeballs on them. Then they try to blitz them. That didn't work. This is going to be the ultimate test.

This is the best. This is the assistant coach of the year last year is Jim Schwartz. And he's coming with the Cleveland Browns with Miles Garrett. They got Denzel Ward, who's one of the best corners in the league. This will be interesting to see how Schwartz defend them. That's what I can't wait to see. Is he going to rush three, four? And this can be a great test for the rookie tackle.

This tackle has not seen anything like Al Garrett before. And it's going to be very, very interesting. How Cliff handles this game, he's got to really stick with the run, and they can't be one-dimensional or Cleveland will pick the hell out of them. So it's going to be a great matchup to watch. You're interested to see how they'll handle it. What's your guess? What would you do?

I think you're going to see some simulated pressures. Obviously going to see a lot of Miles Garrett. But I think Schwartz has a very good blitz package. Things are going to try to confuse him a little bit, but he's still going to play his own behind the blitzers. So he has eyeballs on the quarterback. I think that's the most important thing. you can't turn your back to this guy.

Otherwise, he'll hit you with a 35-4-yard run. And he's just so good, escape, and pressure. My God, he's like, I don't know, it's hard to tackle the guy. So I think he'll see simulated pressure with zone behind it. A lot of four-man rushes and three-man rushes because I think they might feel like they can get home of four and three against the offensive line. It hasn't really been challenged yet with a really good defensive front other than the Giants, who they, you know, they beat the hell out of the Giants pretty good.

you had some success against Schwartz when he was in Philly right there were some big offensive outputs against Philly during his time as defensive coordinator how did you attack his defense you know he had a specific way of playing defense with his wide nines and all that stuff so we had a specific way of attacking him with some of the runs that we had some of the play actions were good you know what I would say with some of his fronts he doesn't really on play actions so some of the play actions aren't quite as good because their ends are up the field no matter what. They don't give it damn if the runner pass. So you've got to be able to run the ball against his defense for sure.

I'd limit the play action passes against these guys because Miles Garrett doesn't play the run. He's going to try to get sacks. So you're going to play quick game for max protection. Make sure you have a try to get four hands on Miles Garrett as often as you can because you can let him wreck the game. So when you don't have play action, when you just said you wouldn't run that much play action because he's not essentially going to fall for it, right? he's coming for the quarterback.

Doesn't that take away a lot of what, you know, a lot of quarterbacks sort of thrive in? Like when you go into a game plan and you decide we're not going to run as much play action, what do you replace it with? Well, you can still run play. Actually, you've got to make sure you have people on the outside help them on the end.

You know what I mean? Yeah. You still can run and play action to affect the linebackers. You just got to make sure you have protection on those ends because they're up the field. They're coming. So as long as you get chips and bangs and maybe double teams on the end with a tight end and maybe two tight ends, you're fine. You can still do it. Give me kind of a pie chart answer to this.

I'll explain if you don't know what I'm talking about. But who deserves right now the most credit for one of the best offenses through the first four weeks of the season? You know, break it into like, you know, slices. What percent is Jaden? What percent is Cliff King's? what percent is the offensive line? What percent is something or somebody else? 98 percent, Jaden? Really? Definitely.

Yeah, I mean, this guy's amazing. I mean, he opens up everything. The run game is better because of Jaden, right? Because you have to have eyeballs on Jaden. I mean, look at the touchdown run that the kid from Boise had, the 27th? Mick Mickles, yeah. Mickles, yeah, yeah. as Jeremy, or Jayden just held the ball just a little bit. They've lifted off the backside, and typically the backside rush, I think is Buda Baker. He would just be slamming down in there, and he'd tackle the running back for a loss of four.

But he just hesitated just a minute because Jaden looked at him and looked like he might run it. And that gave him freedom to take it around the edge. And it was probably the worst run defense I've ever seen in my life on that play by the linebacker. but yeah, I'd say 75% Jaden, 15% coach line, and then obviously Terry McCorm. And the tight ends, I'd throw the tight ends in there, because I think the tight end presence is one of the biggest things that people don't realize the differences from last year of this year. You know, Logan Thomas was a great guy, but he's no presence in the running game.

Now you had Zach Ertz and the other tight ends. The rookie they got. Senate, yeah. Yeah. Those guys are physical guys. They can come off the backside. They can block the point of attack, and it makes it a hell of a lot easier to run a ball. And you have tight-in.

They can do that. You look at all the good running teams. They all have tight-end. Detroit. They have two, three tight ends. They can do that. The San Francisco Four guys have the best tight end in the world. George Kittles, they can do that.

So all the teams that run the ball effectively, Baltimore has two-three tight ends. They can do that. You've got to have tight ends. They can do that. And Washington has them now, and that's a huge, huge addition to their team. And they run plenty of 13 personnel. There was a lot, from my memory last week, of all three of those tight ends being on the field at the same time. It's hard because a lot of teams don't have base defense anymore.

A lot of teams want to play nickel defense all the time. And when you start putting in two, three tight ends, and they have to play base defense, they have to take their nickel out and bring another lineback. There's not a lot of good linebackers in the NFL now. There's really not. And you bring an extra linebacker in, and they just get splattered. That's what happened with New Orleans the first couple of weeks. They were in base personnel making Dallas Cowboys play base deep.

Dallas doesn't have two good linebackers, let alone three. And they are just getting gutted. That's the way it is with a lot of teams. And if you can run out two, three tight ends, four teams play base defense nowadays, you're going to have a huge advantage. Defensively, I mean, it was improved against Arizona, but they still got gashed with the running game, with the Arizona running games. So do you see any glimmer of hope?

I think they play. I think Dan Quinn has the glimmer of hope because he preaches hustle and tackling. And as long as the guys are running around and hitting and Wagner's control the defense and, you know, Payne and Allen try to control the inside. You know, we just don't have any edge pressure really. Armstrong has a lot of bad path pressure. He's okay, but the other side is non-existent. That's the concern.

Obviously, the secondary is a concern. Who's the other corner? You know, the corners are average at best. safeties are okay. So I think they're going to continue to struggle on defense, but they just got to figure out ways to create a turnover here, their hustle, and just make play somehow forced teams to punt somehow.

They did a great job against Arizona. Yeah, I mean, I can't believe that Kyler Murray only ran once in the game. I can't either. Arizona's, yeah. If you look at that game from an Arizona Cardinal fan, you've got to be sick. you really got to be sick because they have too much talent on offense to look like that. And defensively, they were absolutely a trip.

If you really watch a film from a coach's standpoint, the linebacker play there because you're in the kid from Alabama. Yeah. Holy, no, they bad. I know who you're talking about. I mean, the touchdown, the touchdown, yeah, Mack Wilson, the touchdown around that Jayton had. I mean, I didn't want to be too mean to Mac Wilson,

but it might have been the worst play I've ever seen linebacker half. He just stood there. I mean, you got Brian Robinson is offset right, and Jaden keeps it and runs right, and Matt Wilson is standing there. He just standing there. He should be, if that was Ray Lewis, a linebacker, Jane Daniels would have a loss of eight. On that play? I mean, it looked like.

It's unbelievable. It looked like Noah Brown did a really good job on that playing. Oh, Noah Brown was amazing. It was amazing. And that was Gardecke. He has a defensive event. He's like 230 pounds. Yeah.

And I've never seen that happen either. I've never seen a receiver pin a guy and then run them 10 yards down. the field. I mean, that was a great block might know, but horrific by Gardke. Yeah. But, yeah, I mean, credit, that, well, that's also what I think Cliff is doing well. There are different kinds of runs. He's got the quarterback design runs, which he doesn't use a lot, which is great.

He just sprinkles them in there just enough to keep people on it. He's got the zone reads. He's got the inside zones. He's got the pinpole plays. So he's got a good variety of runs, which I really, really like out of different personnel groups, which is really, really, really good, which is hard on a defense. Then he throw a quarterback, and it runs a 4-340, and is elusive and it can throw accurately in our time.

It is very hard for defenses to figure out what the hell the commanders are doing. I just thought offensively, why would they drop? Kyler Murray at 5'6 or whatever he is cannot throw from the pocket. He can't see, right? Yeah, I think there's part of that that is true. He has trouble seeing. He has trouble throwing on time.

And that's the key for accurate quarterbacks nowadays. You have to be able to throw the ball on time. and you got to go to your first second or third progression. And if you can't see, it's hard to get to your second or third progression. And you start scrambling in all the concepts are haywire. And you hope for plaster drills all the time, and it's very difficult. You know, I don't know how good Marvin Harrison is right now. I don't know who their second dors.

I don't know how good they are right now offensively, but they have problems on both sides of the ball. What's possible for this season? I think you don't see any. reason why they can't win the division for sure. I don't know if they're good enough to go very far in the playoffs, but just because of their defense, I think

offensively they compete with anybody. I think the Eagle defense is down. I think the Giants defense, we all know, is down on the back end, and the Cowboys defense is really bad right now. So there's no reason why they don't compete for the division title. Yeah, and I just like the NFC

North teams. I love Detroit. I love Green Bay. I love Minnesota. They're going to be tough outs. I think Tampa, Atlanta, they're good. I think San Francisco obviously is a cream of the crop on both sides of the ball. But they can compete with anybody just because Jaden is so good and their offense is playing well and clips calling good games. One of the keys to beating Cleveland Sunday. They may not have Brian Robinson Jr. He's missed two days of practice. We'll see later on today what the word is on him, but there's a chance he doesn't play. What about Echler? Echler right now, I think is trending towards playing.

Okay, good. Well, they need one of those two guys. But I think the key, obviously, is not like Miles Garrett ruin the game, and I think Cliff knows that. I think they'll put hands on them, four hands on them at all times, in critical situations, passive situations. And be patient. They're going to get some stops at sleep.

They're going to have to punt a couple times and just accept the fact that, you know, punt is okay because Cleveland's offense is really, really bad right now. Their tackles are playing horrifically. Watson is all over the board right now. I think be patient, and I think the game, I think Jay don't make enough big plays to win this game. It should be easy.

Just don't give them any opportunities, no turnovers. Just continue to protect the ball, punt when you have to punt, and then the big play will happen, and they'll get the victory as long as they don't give the ball back to Cleveland. So you're predicting a win? Oh, yeah, yeah, for sure. I think Cleveland's got major problems offensively,

and their defense, I think if you watch them play defense, sometimes your defense can sense the fact your offense isn't going to score so they don't play quite as hard. So you can't give these guys any reason to feel like they have a chance to win the game because once they start playing hard, they're pretty good on defense. They'll play better, but if you can put your foot on their throat early, I think you'll get some people loafing just a little bit at Cleveland. You know, I mentioned yesterday that I think that this is like one of the first times in a while

that the perception is this is a should-win game. it's been a while since they've had a game that they've played in where they weren't the should-win team for the opponent. They're only a three-point favorite. Just, you know, I think everybody understands that. But do you remember a game that you coached that was, you know, maybe in 2015, 2016, whatever, that was kind of a should-win game, at least from a perception outside the building that you guys weren't ready for and you lost? It's not that we weren't ready for, it's just that we got beat would be the Giants game to take us to the playoffs, right? They had nothing to play for, and we had everything to play for.

They still played, you know, 90% of their starters. It's not like they quit. And when those guys play, they're still going to play hard. It's not like they're just going to, oh, I don't care about winning. You know, competitors compete, no matter what the situation is preseason. A game doesn't matter. They're still going to compete. But that's a game that we all thought we should win and didn't.

Yeah, we've talked about that game many times before. All right, let's talk about the rest of the league and then get your lock of the week. What did you think of Kirk last night? It was amazing. I think he's put a stamp on the offense. Zach Robinson's a young offensive coordinator, did a great job. Tampa's without one of their best players on defense, but still has a great performance. the opportunity they got late

is crazy. I think Tampa is right now miserable because they should have sealed that game late. They should never get them the ball back to Kirk there to get the last field goal. Missing tackles, that's not Todd Bulls-style. They missed so many tackles in that game, but Kirk was amazing. You tweeted out last night.

Thank God we got a third round supplemental back. You know, it's late. plate. You know, you're just like, you know, you're watching that throw for 500 yards. Bill, he's an amazing guy. When you have a commodity like that, especially at the quarterback position, you should get paid out a little bit better than a third round supplemental pick. Well, there was an opportunity. You know, you've discussed it before, but just for those that have missed it, San Francisco was certainly interested. We could have got whatever we wanted from San Fran. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind. We could have got whatever we want. But no,

we didn't want to trade San Francisco. We didn't want to get back to the Santa Hens. Yeah, yeah. You know, that game was wild last night. It was crazy in that Tampa, you know, when Kirk threw the pick on fourth and 15, that was actually the right thing to do is to put it up for grabs. It's fourth down and 15, and it was better that the ball got picked off and the bucks lost yardage because it would have been if the guy, if Lovante David just, you know, knocks the ball and they've got better field position to start the next drive, and they probably at least get a field goal.

But they had three timeouts left, and they went backwards, but there was a missed face mask call against Atlanta on a play, and that was the difference between 30 to 27 when they got it back and likely 33 to 27. These games, man, are likely the clock would run out to his first down and there's three more down. Well, no, it would have been offsetting because there was an ineligible offense. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

But still, they wouldn't have lost the ineligible yards, and then there was a sack, I think, after that. Or no, there was a screen that got blown up after that. Phenomenal football game last night. Yeah, and the fumble. He can't fumble that situation. Bucky's a great running back and to learn from that. But that's a situation.

Yeah. You can never fumble, and that's, yeah, that was bad. All right, a couple of games. Oh, you know what? I wanted to ask you. Let me just go back real quickly. Devante Adams, from a Washington perspective, would you or wouldn't you?

I actually wouldn't. I like the way they're playing right now, Washington. Anytime you get a guy like Devante, it helps your football team. Don't get it wrong. But I just wouldn't disrupt the chemistry they have right now, receiver. I think they have a bunch of guys that are playing their roles effectively. They're blocking when they have to block.

They're doing what they're supposed to do. Jaden feels very comfortable. Terry is doing a good job. and I just, I wouldn't. If you're renting them for a year, probably, you don't know if you're going to have them for long-term or not expensive. I personally wouldn't, but he would help if they decide to do it. I wouldn't obviously say, you're idiots for doing it, but you're not, I just wouldn't do it.

All right, a couple of really good games Sunday. It starts Sunday morning in London. Jets Vikings, who do you like? Before we get to your lock of the week, if any of these games are your lock of the week, you can tell me. but Jets's Vikings first. I love the way the Vikings are playing. They're playing the best team football out of anybody in the NFL right now.

Offenses is excellent. Best receiver in the league. Sam Bernal is playing out of his mind. The running game is excellent with Aaron Jones, and defensively Flores is doing a great job with all the things that they're doing. They can do a ton of different things and hurt you out of different personnel groups,

base, Nichols, dime, all that stuff, and they're making it difficult. So I love the Vikings, the way they're playing. and the jets are they're trying to find their way. You know, I'm just not impressed with them. Daniel Hecker, coordinator.

I know Nathaniel, you know, they have too good a team, too many good weapons to be as stagnant as they are on offense. So I'd play Minnesota. What did you think of Sam Darnold in that draft, which was the, that was the Baker-Mayfield draft,

right? I'm pretty sure it was. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Well, we love Sam. Sam was a hell of a player in college and a ton of talent.

big guy, and he's a lot more athletic than people think he is, and he can rip it, yeah. He's good. I do remember you telling me that when they made the trade that you didn't know they were going to make for Alex Smith, you were as surprised as anybody else was, that basically, once that happened, the evaluation of the quarterbacks in the draft stopped. Yeah, exactly right. Yeah, because we had Alex, we signed them to, I think, three-year deal. Yeah.

A lot of money, and Alex is a good player. I wasn't upset that we got to. Alex, I like Alex. I wish I would have known we were going to do it. I wouldn't have traded Kimball-Foeh and a third-round draft pick for them because they were going to let them go. It would have been a free agent. We could have got up or nothing, in my opinion. Whatever, we'll trade away on best nickel and a third-round pick.

No reason. I like that. There was a lot of overpaying during the Snyder era. A lot of overpaying. Yeah. By me too. I probably got overpaid, too. I know you didn't.

Ravens and Bengals. That is going to be a hell of a hell of. the game, and that is my pick of the week, actually. I think Baltimore is playing extremely. Baltimore's got their flag back. They know what they are. They know who they are. Yeah, and I think Cincinnati has a tough time stop in the run.

They've got two defensive linemen out, and it's going to be a nightmare for them to stop. Henry and Lamar, even though it's at home, I hate to bet they get home dogs, but I think Baltimore is a much better team at this point in the season. Yeah, Ravens are laying two and a half. you're two and two on your lock of the week. You had Houston. No, last week didn't count. No, it didn't count.

I told everybody on the show. You know what I did? After I lost the recording, I just recapped our conversation and gave out your lock of the week so that everybody could play. Lost by half a point. No, no, no, no.

They were six-point favorites. Oh, they were? Yeah, and they won by four, right? It was 24 to 24. I told you to play this. I told you to tease them down to. Oh, you did? It's tease them with whom?

With whom? What about Bill's Texans? By the way, were you surprised that the bills got absolutely thrashed the way they did? I mean, Derek Henry is something else, but I was expecting a much better game than the one we got Sunday night. Yeah, for sure. Very surprised. And I think the bills have problems right now, especially in the back end of safety. The strength of the Bill's team in the last couple years on defense was their safeties and their ability to,

do a lot of different things. They can't do that right now. Hamlin is not very good. I'm glad he's playing. Don't get me wrong, but he's slow and he's not very physical. And then they lost a safety again, and their angles and their ability to disguise coverages isn't what it used to be.

That's not what McDermott's defense is all about. So they're going to struggle moving forward, especially in the back end. It's scary. Yeah. They get Houston. Houston, by the way, is the only team that's won three games that is also 0 and 4 against the number at this point. I like Houston the game just because of that.

I think it would be a high-scoring game. If you guys like play over-runners, I think that game will be in the 30s for both teams. 47 and a half is the total. Real quickly, because you mentioned him, and I talked about him earlier in the week. In fact, you said this to me. I'm almost positive it was you said this. of years ago. We were talking about Gino Smith, the season that he had in 22, where he really started to play well at 30, whatever years old. And you said, look, everybody in the league is

known forever that Gino can really throw the football. And he got that opportunity. That game Monday night, I was like, this dude just can flat out play. Like, he is a good quarterback, and they've got a lot of weapons. So just give me. a minute on Gino Smith and then the weapons that Seattle has. I'll tell you this. There was a time where I thought Gino Smith was absolute trash. I mean, trash. Turn the ball over, taking sacks, just not knowing what the hell is going on.

And now I think he's one of the better quarterback from National Football League after that game Monday night. He's got a great pocket awareness. He extends plays. He's accurate. He's got a good arm. He's got great weapons, obviously, with D.K. and lock it.

and Jigba. I mean, and the running game is excellent. Seattle is a team to be, that will threaten the 49ers, I think, once they get their defensive players back. They have so many injuries on the defense.

It's not even funny. But, yeah, I just been ultra-impressed with Gino. I love the fact, you know, you put them in the Sam Darnel category. You know,

Sam struggled a lot early and Sam's still a lot younger, but you look at these guys when they continue to play, and they understand defenses and route concepts. We're to go with the football. They're more decisive.

They're playing a position like it's supposed to be played, and Gino has really, I mean, just made me go full circle on him as his opinion as a quarterback. Yeah, that's the Thursday night game next week. Seattle and San Francisco, huge game in the NFC West. Sunday night, Pittsburgh, and Dallas. Yeah, Dallas defensively, they are really, really poor. Their personnel, I don't know if they can match up with West. but Pittsburgh is going to give them with the power running game.

I don't think they have the people to hold up. They're missing Micah. They're missing Lawrence. And those are their two best players on a defense that doesn't have any good players. Now, you take those two guys out there really, really bad. So I would think that Pittsburgh will have a pretty good day, despite the fact that they're not great offensively. I think they're going to push them around a little bit,

control the clock, keep back, press cut off the field, and get the victory. They're laying two and a half. You like them minus the two and a half, I'm assuming. And then Monday night, the Chiefs are five and a half point favorites at Arrowhead against the Saints. What are we seeing with the Four and O Chiefs who basically have won every single game by seven or less and have hardly looked dynamic offensively? Kind of like last year in the regular season. Yeah, I think you're exactly right.

They didn't look dynamic last year. I think Spagnolia will keep this team in games because they're defensive playing out of their mind. and Patrick will make enough plays to keep it close, and Andy Reid will come up with a player or two in the red zone or some kind of crazy little double pass or screen to a fullbacker, lineman, or defensive tackle, something weird, and they'll win 20 to 13. You know, that's just how they're going to do it for now until they get some of their weapons back.

I don't know if they're going to get anybody back. They've got to figure out something because, you know, they're, you know, I don't know how they're going to win late in the season and continue to win with the weapons that they have. Kelsey's obviously going to continue to get back in better shape. The running game without Pacheco is, you know,

Kareem Hunt and Somaget P. Rine, you know, they'll be okay. They just don't have any explosive playmakers on that field other than Patrick scrambling around and find the second, third, fourth window throws, which he will do. So they'll be in all the games because they play great defense. They have a great quarterback and a great

head coach, so it's going to be hard to still beat them despite the fact they don't have many go-to weapons. They're clearly going to be in the ad wide receiver before the trade deadline mode, I would assume. All right, thanks. Let me go save this real quickly. I'll talk to you

next week. You got it. Thanks, Kevin. Jay Gruden, everybody, I'll finish up the show with the smell test right after these words from a few of our sponsors. Out of all the things we do to maintain and protect our homes, getting up on a ladder to clean out the gutters is the last thing

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And yes, I know a lot of you hate my college picks. And look, you don't have to play them. You can play whichever plays of mine you want to play. You know, I have a track record here of 18 years of doing this, where, you know, over the course of 18 years, I have had 13 winning seasons and five losing seasons, you know, counting every pick, college and pro. Now, we all understand that you pay a little bit more on a loss than a win. Some of those winning seasons were barely winning seasons. Some of those winning seasons may have been push seasons, but all of the losing seasons, none of them were any less than less. like 48 and a half percent hitting. Now, you lost money those years, but I think the one thing

in terms of betting with the house and against the public, betting with the house and with sharp money against the public, you know, knock on wood, because there's no guaranteed system. But the one thing that it's kind of insured over all of these years is that you don't get destroyed. You know, it happens a lot. You get destroyed betting on sports. And if you bet the same amount on every game, straight bet, over 18 seasons, you'd be up if you played every game. But if you want to pick and choose, have at it. This is for entertainment purposes. Obviously, the NFL right now has been massive for sports books and college, not so much. Usually things start to turn. They'll start to turn in college towards, you know, the anti-public, contrarian, hand,

caper and maybe they'll turn, you know, in uglier fashion on the NFL place. With all of that said, let's get to the picks because I have a lot of college picks again, more than I thought I was going to have earlier in the week. So we'll start with tonight. Syracuse is playing UNLV. UNLV, remember, is the team that lost the quarterback when he left when they were four and and he left school because he didn't get paid his NIL money. And they went out without him in the first game last week, and they destroyed Fresno State 59 to 14. They are currently 5-0 on the season, 4-0 on the season,

excuse me, with an impressive win over Kansas, an impressive and dominant win over Houston. And then last week against a Fresno team, that was close against Michigan in week one, they crushed Fresno as just a two and a half point favorite, 59 to 14. This week against Syracuse, a team that's coming off a win over Holy Cross, but the last time they played, they lost to Stanford as a nine-point favorite. They're giving six and a half points. The public likes UNLV. They're buying into UNLV. UNLV has an interesting situation. They are definitely in the hunt for that.

you know, last playoff spot, the non-power-for playoff spot. Their schedule does get interesting. They have a game later on in the season against Boise. That'll be a huge game for them. That'll be a huge game in just the overall non-power-for, non-power, whatever it's called now, a guaranteed playoff spot. They have a game at Oregon State as well, but they play Boise at home. But I think they struggle tonight.

9 o'clock kick, Friday night, take the dog, buy the half point. Syracuse plus the seven. North Carolina tomorrow is host to undefeated Pitt. North Carolina lost last week to Duke and the week before that to James Madison, 70 to 50. This line is short. It's three points. Pitt is the public play.

North Carolina is the sharp play. I'll take the heels at home plus the three against Pitt. A lot of sharp money. on Iowa. This number was 21 down to 20 and a half. Now it's down to 20. I see some 19 and a halfs and some 19s out there. I'm going to play it quickly right now.

Iowa plus 20 against Ohio State in the shoe. Iowa is still good defensively. They lost that one game to Iowa State by a point. If not, this would be a matchup of unbeatens.

Give me Iowa plus the 20. I'm going against Navy as I did last week. Navy's laying 10 at Air Force. Navy's a huge public play this week. I'll take Air Force plus the 10. Northwesterns playing undefeated Indiana at home, getting 14. Look, Indiana is coached that guy, Signetti, who coached James Madison last year. They can really score. They got a big six-foot-five-inch quarterback, who, by the way, you know, they were against Maryland last week. And the Terps won the turnover battle for Zip. They got four takeaways, didn't give the ball away once, and they lost by two touchdowns. That's hard to do. Indiana's lying 14 against a

Northwestern team that's really struggled to score the public likes Indiana. I'll take Northwestern plus the 14. Florida State's getting 14 and a half against Clemson. Everybody's on Clemson. they have been an absolute offensive show since losing to Georgia and only scoring three points. Florida State can't score. They did beat Cal. I'll take the Knowles at home on one of those true, hold your nose and really breathe hard because Clemson's capable of putting up a lot of points. And this one could be a Baylor-UAB from last week or a UCF from last week. but I'm going to continue to play the system. Florida State plus 14 and a half.

So Arkansas has got Tennessee. Tennessee hasn't played since they played Oklahoma in that big game two weeks ago on Saturday night in Norman. I had Oklahoma that night that did not work. I'm going to go against Tennessee again. I'm going to take Arkansas plus the 14. Arkansas's lost two games, both of which they had leads in against Oklahoma State. They lost in double overtime, and they lost last week against A&M.

In those two games, Arkansas is minus five in the turnover margin, and yet they had a chance to win both games. A lot of Vols action. Tennessee's become a big-time public team. I'll take Arkansas plus the 14. Washington in their first legitimate big-time home big 10 game, Michigan's coming to town. Michigan cannot throw the football. They threw for 32 yards in their win. over USC. I had them that day. And they threw for 86 yards last week in a three-point win over Minnesota, which was controversial because

Minnesota roared back into that game. They recovered an onside kick, but they were called for off-sides, and the replay showed that it was not off-sides. Michigan could have been in trouble there. Washington's favored over Michigan. Washington lost to Rutgers last week. Rutgers is pretty good, though.

Washington is minus one and a half. I'll take that home team laying the point in a half against Michigan. Georgia Tech is a nine and a half point favorite over undefeated Duke. Georgia Tech is the better team. I'm pretty sure of it. Nine and a half points better? The public doesn't think so. They're all over the underdog in this one.

I'll take the rambling wreck minus the nine and a half. And then Texas Tech is at Arizona. Arizona beat Utah last week. crushing loss for Utah, who played again without Cam Rising, their quarterback. This is a letdown spot for Arizona. Arizona, by the way, has a big-time wide receiver who could be a target for Washington in the draft. But Texas Tech getting six and a half, I'll buy the half point and take them plus seven out in the desert in Tucson against Arizona. All right, 10 college plays, one tonight, and then nine more.

tomorrow. Let's go to Sunday in the NFL. Got a Sunday morning London game in the smell test. The Jets plus by the half point three against Minnesota. Minnesota has become a big public side this weekend. The Jets losing to Denver. Remember it's recent impressions. Minnesota went to Lambo and won. The Jets lost in the rain against Denver 10 to 9. I'll take the Jets buying the half point plus three. The Bengals are getting two and a half at home against the race.

The Ravens looked great against Buffalo. The Bengals got their first win. Wasn't overly impressive against Carolina. Public loves the Ravens in this game. I'll take the Bengals by the half point and take them plus the three. And then our game, Cleveland and Washington. Cleveland minus three. Washington is the most bet public team based on the information that I have.

It's pretty close with Minnesota and Baltimore. I'm taking Cleveland plus the three. I've had Washington once, and I've had their opponent once this year. Coming into this season, I was 64.5% on games involving Washington. I took the Giants plus one against Washington in week two, lost that one. I had Washington in week three against Cincinnati plus seven and a half. They won outright. So I'm one in one so far in their games.

Look, this is, this really is, sort of a classic, you know, trap smell test pick. I know Washington hasn't been the team that you, you know, that Washington hasn't been the team where you got to worry about trap games in recent years, but they are a public favorite with Jaden Daniels, with that offense, with the incredible, you know, performances against Cincinnati and Arizona, and they're only laying a field goal against a team that has struggled to score. I'll take Cleveland, plus, three. And then even without Malik Neighbors, I'm going to take the Giants plus seven out in Seattle. This is a long-term rest versus short-term rest. Public really like Seattle. Seattle's banged up

defensively. I'd feel much differently about this game if Malik Neighbors was in it in terms of my own analysis. But even though the line jumped a point with Malik Neighbors being ruled out from the game with the concussion, it didn't jump to 10. You know, it didn't jump. Jump to eight. Jump to point. That's significant to seven. But, you know, every sports book is going to need the Giants to cover in that game. There we go. 14 plays. 10 in college four in the NFL. Recapping Syracuse plus seven tonight. North Carolina plus three. Iowa plus 20. Air Force plus 10. Northwestern plus 14. Florida State plus 14 and a half. Arkansas plus 14. Washington minus one and a half. Georgia Tech minus 9 and a half, and Texas Tech plus 7 in college. The Jets plus 3, the Bengals plus 3, the Browns plus 3, and the Giants plus 7 in the NFL. Enjoy it. Enjoy the football weekend. Can't wait to watch Washington Sunday back on Monday.