The Kevin Sheehan Show - A Carolina Warning

Episode Date: December 26, 2020

A short pod today featuring Kevin's warning on the Carolina game, his five keys to a win, and a final score prediction. He had seven NFL "Smell Test" picks too.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Chean Show. Here's Kevin. Hope everybody had a great Christmas. This is going to be, I think, the shortest podcast we've ever done. It's me solo with, I don't know, three to five minutes on maybe three to five topics, tops.

I don't even know if that's going to be accurate. But it seems like a good plan right now. Something easily to consume for you guys on. I think they call this Boxing Day, the 26th, when you box everything up to take back. I think that's why they call it Boxing Day. Anyway, I hope you had a great holiday. Here it goes. Topic number one, beware of the Carolina Panthers. You know, tomorrow's game against Carolina is not a lock. It's the furthest thing from it. Carolina's 4 and 10. I understand that. You know, Washington, if you're not paying attention,

they're six and eight. They're only two games better than the Panthers. In a normal year without a terrible division like the NFC, East. This would be a totally meaningless game that people would describe as a matchup between two bad teams playing out the string. But tomorrow is different because Washington could be playing at 405 tomorrow afternoon for the division. You know, the Giants play the Ravens at 1 o'clock, and we all believe that the chances of a New York upset against a Baltimore team that needs to win is a long shot, even though apparently Daniel Jones will play in the game. But if the Giants lose, which they should as an 11-point underdog. No guarantees in the NFL, as we saw last weekend, with the Jets beating the Rams and the Bengals

beating the Steelers as 17 and 14.5 point underdogs, respectively. Nothing's a lock, but certainly Washington should, more likely than not, enter their game tomorrow afternoon against the Panthers with a chance to clinch the division. amazingly, by the way, if they win the game tomorrow and the Giants lose and they clinch the division, I don't know if this has ever happened. Has a seven-win team ever been able to rest their starters in the final week of the season because they've already wrapped up their playoff fate that's already over, the division wrapped up? I can't imagine that a team with seven wins, seven and eight, going into the season finale,

has ever been able to rest their starters because they've already wrapped up their playoff position. Anyway, warning, I think this is going to be a very tough game to win. You know, let's start with the Panthers. They are 4 and 10, you know, and yes, they'll be without Christian McCaffrey again. They'll also be without one of their best defensive players, Brian Burns. But the Panthers have been without McCaffrey for much of the year, and yet they've been a very difficult team to beat. Eight of their 10 losses have been by eight points or less.

The only two games out of the 14 they played this year where they really didn't have a legitimate chance to win the game late into the second half where the two games they played against Tampa Bay. They got blown out in the opener, early in the season to Tampa Bay, not the opener, but early in the season, 3117. And then I think the game was tied in their second matchup and they ended up getting blown out late by the Buccaneers. Every other game winnable in the second half, including for the Panthers in losses to the Kansas City Chiefs and the New Orleans Saints, among others. The Panthers haven't been the type of team that a team like Washington has just handled with ease. Hasn't happened at all this year. Tomorrow is basically now a toss-up according to the point spread. Washington right now is just a one-point favorite in the game.

So the team that has to win the game is a one-point favorite over the team playing for nothing. Appears to be a perfect setup for a contrarian better like me. More on that coming up when I get to the smell test. As I'm recording this, there is no for sure word on Alex Smith or Dwayne Haskins for tomorrow. Alex made a move in the right direction of playing tomorrow with first team reps taken yesterday, Friday. Today will really determine more likely than not if he will get this start. But as we're recording this, no definitive word on Alex as of now. Now, if he starts, he better be 100% healthy.

If he isn't, then Chase Young and Montez Sweat are going to have to carry this team to victory like they did in San Francisco. I do not want to see Alex Smith out there if he's not healthy. It won't work. If Dwayne starts, I don't feel as badly about it as some of you do. I don't know how he'll react to the week he just had, but if he can play like he did in the final quarter and a half against Seattle, I think the offense is going to be just fine. I much prefer, much prefer, Haskins over a less than 100% Alex Smith.

To me, that's not even a conversation. It's not even a debate. I thought Haskins played his best football of the year last week. If you miss Cooley's film breakdown of Dwayne the other day, I think we did it on the Wednesday show. Listen to it from Wednesday's show. Chris agreed with me on Haskins. Thought he played pretty well last week. So anyway, this is a game they can easily lose.

All right. Vegas sees it. Washington was a two and a half point favorite. It's down to one. I think that the public loves Washington. Trust me, this will be included. the smell test coming up here in about 10 minutes. But this is a game that Carolina is more than capable of winning,

despite Washington's urgency to try to end it tomorrow, especially if the Giants lose. And if the Giants win, it'll become even more crucial so that they can continue, excuse me, to control their fate heading into the final week. All right, I'll give you my five keys to a win over the Panthers right after this word from one of our sponsors. All right, topic or discussion number two is keys to beating Carolina, and I'll have a prediction in this short segment as well.

I've got five keys to beating the Panthers tomorrow. Number one, you've got to stop the run, and when I say stop the run against Carolina, that's all kinds of runs from Joe Brady's offense. Joe Brady is the offensive coordinator in his first year in Carolina with Matt Rule the head coach. Joe Brady was the. LSU offensive coordinator last year that produced the most prolific offensive season for a quarterback in college football history, Joe Burroughs season at LSU for the national champions. Joe Brady is creative.

Mike Davis is their primary running back. I loved him at Seattle. If you've listened to me over the years, he was one of the guys in the last couple of years. I wanted Washington to sign because I knew Seattle didn't have room for him. I think Davis was a really good back at South Carolina. He's a guy that runs hard. He's a guy that has terrific vision, but it's not just Mike Davis. He's not going to carry the ball 20 times if things go well. In fact, if things go well, his carry count will be like 12 to 15, 16 carries in the game. He runs hard, as I mentioned,

and he's able to kind of get three, four, five yards out of something that doesn't look like three, four, or five yards are there. but it's the way they work everybody else into the run game that Jack Del Rio and Ron Rivera have to contend with. They work their wide receivers into the run game in the same way that Kyle Shanahan has done it in recent years. Curtis Samuel has 65 catches on the season this year for the Panthers. He also has 31 carries in 13 games. DJ Moore, Robbie Anderson, will get the ball too. They are going to stretch a defense. You know, I think we would have seen a lot more of Debo Samuel, speaking of a player with the same last name. Debo Samuel had the first carry of the game in the 49ers game against Washington a few weeks ago, and then he got hurt and we never saw it again.

DJ Moore, Robbie Anderson, Curtis Samuel are going to try and keep you honest, all right, by stretching the field with their run attack. That's what Joe Brady's going to want to do. He's going to want to try to keep you honest with a run attack that's going to stretch the field sideways. And then that's for him going to make things much easier for Mike Davis. You've got to stop the run. This team's been a bit vulnerable to the run, including last week, and they're going to get a team that's going to run it in a variety of ways. They're going to have to be ready for that, and they're going to have to stop it. Key number two, this is going to be one of those games.

where the team that tackles best is going to have the better chance to win. Both teams have big yards after catch guys. Davis catches the ball for them, Mike Davis does, is very good after the catch. DJ Moore, one of the best in the league after the catch. For Washington, we know what McKissick's been after the catch, and McLaurin, obviously, as well. Now, McLaren, you know, may not play. I mean, he is doubtful for tomorrow's game.

He's had an ankle injury that we knew that he wasn't at the same level in the last few weeks that he was in the earlier and mid-portion of the season. Had a couple of drops last week. Apparently he's at a bad ankle. He may not go tomorrow. Now, Gibson might be back, but tackling well, limiting yards after catch. You have to limit the yards after catch with Carolina, and they have to do it as well with Washington. That will be huge tomorrow. third key to beating the Panthers, third down offense. Carolina has had a major issue on third down this year. They're 30th in the league, giving up 50% conversions on third down. It's one of, if not the biggest reason that Carolina has a 4-10 record. I would say the loss of Christian McCaffrey is probably the number one reason. They're just a different team with McCaffrey in the lineup, and I don't think they would be 4'10.

and 10 had McCaffrey played 14 games this year. But number two on the list is their third down defense. They are not good on third down, even though they've improved a little bit here in recent games, but teams have converted 50% on third down. That is the third worst third down defense in the league. Listen to this in two close losses to two of the best teams on their schedule, the Chiefs and the Saints. Kansas City and New Orleans combined against Carolina's defense to go 18 of 24 and third down. That's 75%. That's unbelievable. And yet, they only lost those two games by a combined five points. That tells you how capable this team is.

Washington's done a good job over the last nine games, moving the football, possessing the football. And the reason they've been able to do that is they've converted on third downs. last week with Haskins, 10 of 17 on third down against Seattle. They would take that and run with that tomorrow. If they can convert at that level tomorrow, they're going to have a very good chance to win. Key number four to beating the Panthers tomorrow. Take away Teddy Bridgewater's first option.

He gets a little antsy if the ball isn't coming out quickly based on what he thinks is going to be open pre-snap. He can get hot. Bridgewater is a guy that can get hot and get into a rhythm. He is fourth in the league in completion percentage. But if you make him wait and read it out, the ball isn't as accurate. He'll take some sacks too. He's got receivers.

They can get open. They can make plays. I've already mentioned tackling well after they catch it, but you don't even want to get to that point with Carolina's offense. This isn't an easy matchup for the skins. It isn't. They've got guys that are hard to press. In man coverage, they've got guys that can find holes against zone coverage, make Teddy Bridgewater get to a second and third reads.

He'll read it out correctly, but he's less accurate when he's got to come off that first read and hold on to the ball a little bit longer. Fifth and final key to beating Carolina, Dustin Hopkins. You know, he's missed a kick in nine of their 14 games this year, either a field goal or an extra point. Last week, crucial miss of an extra point, and that made a huge difference in the outcome of the game against the Seahawks. Instead of potentially in position to kick a game tying, overtime forcing field goal, they were down five, and they had to score a touchdown. I think tomorrow's game's going to be close. I do, and I think a missed kick could ultimately be a major reason that they lose the game if they lose it. Dustin Hopkins has to be perfect tomorrow. The Joey Sly, their kicker, big leg, but also inconsistent as well.

So kicking will be a key for Washington. Hopkins has to make his kicks tomorrow. You know, it's not going to be a windy day. It's not going to be a brutally cold day. It's not going to be a wet field day. It should be a good kicking day tomorrow at FedEx Field. Hopkins has to be perfect tomorrow. If not, we could be sitting here having a conversation on Monday about how a missed PAT or a missed field goal, which was makeable, was the major difference in loss versus win.

All right, my prediction, I don't like Washington tomorrow. I'm hopeful. I want them to win the game. I want them to go into the season finale against the Eagles not having to win that game. you know, if they lose tomorrow, even if the Giants lose, if the Eagles win over the Cowboys, the Eagles then control their own fate. The Eagles then would be playing Washington for a chance to win the division. I think Washington's going to clinch the division, but I think it's going to come next week in Philadelphia.

I don't like the game tomorrow. My prediction, Carolina 23, Washington 22. my thoughts on Ron Rivera's handling of the Dwayne Haskins incident after this word from one of our sponsors. All right, because we did not do a show on Thursday, we did not have a chance to, on the podcast, follow up on Ron Rivera's presser from Wednesday, where he announced that he took away Dwayne Haskins' captaincy. He fined Dwayne Haskins $40,000. but Dwayne Haskins was going to be his starting quarterback if Alex Smith couldn't go tomorrow and the backup if Alex Smith could go. A lot of you wanted him cut or released right away. Bottom line,

Dwayne Haskins is still here because there's a division at stake in the other quarterback options if Smith isn't healthy aren't good enough. Stephen Montez, Taylor Hineke. Their last resort guys. They are guys that Ron Rivera and Scott Turner felt like didn't give them a chance to win a division. Ron Rivera chose the other 52 players and the other staff members and their best interests over some sort of emphatic culture signal, culture change signal. That he was not going to deprive the rest of his team of the postseason for a mistake they did not make. I don't have an issue with any of it. I trust in Ron Rivera at this point. I mean, what choice do I have other than trusting nobody,

which is reasonable, I guess, considering the team's two-decade history under the current ownership. But I liked Ron Rivera before they hired him. I liked the way this team has responded and grown in his first year. I am as optimistic about the team's future as I've been in a long time. And it's partly due to the talent on defense and even some of the talent on offense. but it's mostly due to Rivera. I feel like there's a good coach and leader in that position for the first time in years. So on this decision to keep Dwayne as a part of this thing, despite the fact that Dwayne attended a large gathering COVID-19 protocol breaking event that included a stripper or strippers,

strippers plural, that was, you know, without a doubt, a selfish, you know, immature, bad decision, dumb decision. And by the way, to allow photos of it and allow people to put it out on Instagram, I mean, how stupid was that whole thing? I don't think that Dwayne Haskins will be on this roster. And I think putting the decision on Haskins off for a month or so so that you don't deprive the other 52 players in your locker room and staff members, I don't think that that's a horrible culture impacting decision. I trust Ron Rivera. He's built up some equity with me here over the last couple of months. You know, there are examples like not putting up with the, you know, Trent Williams situation or the Quentin Dunbar situation and moving on and moving on decisively

from those two. You know, there are bigger decisions like moving on from Haskins early on when it became apparent to him and Turner that Kyle Allen and or Alex Smith would give them a better chance to be a competitive outfit offensively. And then, you know, the overall continued improvement of this team as the season's gone on when it could have and would have in the past gone south in a hurry at one in five or two and seven. Say whatever you want about the division. Philly and Dallas haven't played as well as Washington has. The Giants haven't played as well as Washington has. Washington's gotten better and smarter and tougher as the season's gone along. That's made an impression on me. He's done that

everywhere he's been. You know, this decision that he was faced with really was to me about two things, right? It was, first of all, you know, you can't put Dwayne out there as if he's putting anybody at risk health-wise, you know, and I would have to think, that the team that's been as good as any team in the league, as successful as any in the league at keeping COVID out of their sphere for nearly an entire season, I would assume they know what they're doing and in consultation with the league that by bringing Dwayne back, they didn't put an entire team at risk of getting infected. I have to think that that's probably their belief and that it's not going to impact

the end of the NFL season. the league wouldn't allow them to do this if the end of the NFL season in the NFC East could be impacted by a player infecting other players. So they had to consider that. And then, of course, it's the culture, culture, culture conversation. Did he take into account the thing that he's referred to over a hundred times since he got the job? That's where I would say, you know, he did take the path of, we're going to win now and I'm not going to deprive the other 52 men. in the locker room over maybe some sort of defining long-term culture statement. Again, I'm fine with what he did.

I know that many of you disagree and many of you agree. It's a subject that I took 30 minutes worth of calls on the radio show the other day, and people were really split on this. But I am fine with a pragmatic approach that doesn't essentially penalize everybody else for a mistake they didn't make. They can take care of the Dwayne issue after this season's over, and it will still have an impact on the culture. He is looking for a certain kind of person

in addition to a certain kind of player. Haskins does not fit that description, but Haskins right now is not going to be dismissed so that a team can try to make a statement with two games left in the season, and as part of that statement, missing the playoffs becomes more of a reality. You know, Haskins gives them a better chance

clearly than the other two backup guys, Montez and Heineke. I don't have a problem with what Ron Rivera did. My smell test, when we come back. Kevin looks where the John Q public is putting their cash and does the opposite. It's time for the smell test. All right, the smell test is brought to you by my bookie.

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cash in your pocket. This winter, bet with the best, bet with my bookie. smell test was 5-1-1-1 last week. So it was a really good week. If you didn't hear my smell test on radio, consider yourself fortunate because I gave out the Vikings yesterday plus the seven. That didn't work out. What a performance by Alvin Kamara and the Saints yesterday against truly one of the worst defenses in the league. I know. I know it was Kirk Cousin's fault that they lost the game yesterday. But that was the first time on the Vikings this year, either for them or against them that I lost. There was 5 and O going into yesterday on games involving Minnesota this year, and then I lost yesterday.

So I'm off to an 0-and-1 start. I like the 49ers today. Now, I don't like them as much right now as I did on Friday. The line's moving ahead, but I think you'll get some good value. The lines at 6.5 on Friday when I gave it out on Friday when I get it. On Wednesday or Thursday, whatever day it was, I gave it out that I had my smell test on radio. I gave out the 49ers plus five. So that's the number I will stick with.

You're going to get it at six and a half or so today. Buy that half point, get it to seven. I do like the Niners. The public's all over the Arizona Cardinals today. The Cardinals with a good chance now to draw near a playoff clinching win. I think they clinched today, or maybe the Bears still are alive. But Arizona gets pretty close to a playoff spot with a win today. over San Francisco. I like the 49ers plus the points. Tomorrow. I like the Panthers. Now,

when I gave this out the other day, it was plus two and a half. You're going to get it at plus one. I know it's hard for many of you to play that. Look, I don't want to, I don't want this one to work. I want Washington to win the game, but the Panthers totally fit into the smell test criteria. In fact, Washington right now is the biggest public play on the board tomorrow. And I've mentioned this in years past. One of the best smell test setups is late in a season when a team that's playing for nothing is playing a team that has to win or that needs to win. Take that team that's playing for nothing,

getting points more often than not, especially when it reeks like this one at just a point, Washington minus one. The Panthers are in the smell test plus the one. I like Denver tomorrow plus the three against the Chargers. A lot of people like the Chargers coming off their win. over the Raiders last week. I like the Rams who lost to the jets and are getting a point and a half at Seattle. Public loves the Seahawks to really damage the Rams division hopes with a win tomorrow.

I'll take the Rams to bounce back plus the one and a half. The Steelers have been awful recently. They are getting a mere point and a half at home against Indy. I'll take the Steelers to bounce back. I like the Jets plus nine and a half plus 10 at home against Cleveland. They've been very competitive. They obviously won their first game, much to the dismay of jet fans last week. I like the Jets plus the nine and a half.

And I like the Cowboys to beat the Eagles tomorrow. The public really likes Philly laying the two, two and a half. Might be up to three at this point. I'll take Dallas plus the points against the Eagles. That is the smell test for the week. You missed out in Minnesota, hopefully. which was a loser. I like the Niners, Panthers, Broncos, Rams, Steelers, Jets, and Cowboys. Anyway, that's it. Have a great rest of the day. Great rest of the weekend. I'll be back on Monday with Cooley to recap the Skins, Panthers game, and the rest of your NFL Sunday.