The Kevin Sheehan Show - A Giant Code Red

Episode Date: October 16, 2020

Cooley & Kevin with plenty on a football Friday including how Washington can win its first "code red" game of the year Sunday in New York. Keys to the game, game predictions, and whether or not it's ...truly a season-saving opportunity. Plenty also on the rest of the NFL including reaction to the Le'Veon Bell signing in Kansas City, thoughts on some of the biggest games of the weekend, potential trade deadline deals, 15 Smell Test picks from Kevin, and an outright underdog NFL winner from Cooley.   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:02 You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheyenne Show. Here's Kevin. A football Friday, Cooley and Kevin, Football Friday. Cooley out in his studio now, out in Wyoming. I'm here in our luxurious studios in Bethesda, Maryland.
Starting point is 00:00:24 And we are going to do a football show today. There's other stuff to talk about. Dwayne's back at practice. You know, some of the things that Rivera said about Haskins and the linebackers I would like to get to as well. But we'll have a Washington beats the Giants if our keys to the game. I've got a smell test with a lot of picks this weekend. Cooley's got a lock of the week. We'll pick the Washington Giant game as well.
Starting point is 00:00:53 Remember, Cooley, this is a big stretch in the schedule. This is the stretch of the schedule where Rivera is going to make hay. This is where he told Moose Johnson about the next. six games going into the Rams game, that he's got to go four and two, which means now he's got to go four and one. If he loses Sunday, that means he's got to go four and oh after that. In all seriousness, if he's serious about being a contender in the division, well, then this is a must game, period. You have to beat the Giants, or it's over, and we are on to 2021 at 1 and 5. It's a code red game.
Starting point is 00:01:34 He didn't say code red. I'm sure he did not say code red. But it seems like one of those Tampa code red games. You lose this game, and we're not talking about anything. What was their record when they played Tampa? Was it two and four? I think it was two and four. I think that's exactly what it was.
Starting point is 00:01:51 I think it was two and four and they beat Tampa. Actually, they might have been better than that. It was more mid-season, I think. No, I'm going to look it up right now. I think you're right. I think it was two and four, and remember they had New England afterwards and then the buy week. So there was like thought, or either the buy week and then New England. I forget exactly what it was.
Starting point is 00:02:15 It was 2015, right? 2015 because it ended up being the division winning year. So let me go to 2015, get the Washington Redskins schedule for that year. Yeah, two and four. Two and four going into the Tampa game. Well, we had a couple of games that were interesting that year. So that was the year, you know, you opened up with two at home and you got the Rams. You lost the Dolphins beat the Rams.
Starting point is 00:02:42 Then that Thursday night ugly game in the Meadowlands, boy, there were a couple of those Thursday nighters against the Giants that were ugly early in the season. Then you had the, you know, 90-yard drive at the end of the game where Kirk through the game winner to Pierre to beat Philadelphia to get to two and two. Then you had the Ryan Grant fall-down game in overtime against Atlanta when he fell down and you had the pick. Or as other people would call it the Kirk Pick game. Yes, but it was really the Ryan fall-down game. I mean, Kirk let him down the field for the game-tying field goal,
Starting point is 00:03:19 and then they were on the move in overtime when Ryan Grant fell down. Then they got bum-rushed by the Jets. The Jets were really good on defense that year. on defense some good players like Wilkerson and Richardson and Cromarty. I'm looking at Leonard Williams who was a rookie that year. Anyway, was he a rookie that year? Yeah, I guess he was a rookie that year. And then you had the Tampa Bay game, which Jay said is a Code Red game.
Starting point is 00:03:53 And Code Red meant we have to win it if we're going to have a season, but it also may have been a Code Red game for Kirk Cousins. who hadn't played poorly, but had a bad game against a defense that dominated them against the Jets. And they're down 24 to nothing midway through the second quarter against the Buccaneers at home. And then it all started. I mean, that was a comeback. That was a comeback. The touchdown pass, which you called, I remember the call of it.
Starting point is 00:04:26 Jordan Reed isolated, remember? and you said Cousins has Jordan Reed on the slant for the touchdown. And that's exactly where he went with the ball. And then the rest is, you know, they ended up winning their, they ended up winning six of their final nine games and making the postseason that year. Anyway, how did we get onto that? I don't even know how. Oh, Code Red.
Starting point is 00:04:51 Code Red. So do you think, so one and four, can you really have a Code Red game? Well, yeah, you can have a Code Red game, I think. at any point where your season would end if you were to lose a game. Does the season end even in this division if they lose to the Giants? Yeah. Yeah. Right.
Starting point is 00:05:08 One in five. Yeah. With some of the, yeah, it's too uphill after that with the team. If they were the chargers right now in this division and had lost four games by less than seven points. Right. Two overtime games. a young quarterback who is really starting to play, an offense who is capable of moving the ball,
Starting point is 00:05:32 a defense who I think should give up and they were in our division, I think you could put the chargers right now at 1 in 5 in our division and say, it's not over for them. There's a good shot. Agreed. I would say the same thing about Minnesota. I would say the same thing. Let me find other bad, well, obviously the 49ers.
Starting point is 00:05:51 I would say the same thing about the Texans. I would say the Texans would have a chance in our division at 1 and 4. Yeah, I think so. I think less of a chance for the... I don't like the Texans very much. I like them this weekend. There's a little smell test tease for you.
Starting point is 00:06:07 Before we get to some of the things that Ron Rivera said yesterday, are you surprised that the chief signed Levion Bell? I know that there was a lot of discussion that that would be the team that he would sign. But they've got Clyde Edwards-Hillair, and he's been phenomenal as a rookie. I don't know why they need Leveon Bell. I had one thought about it, but I want to get yours first. I'm not surprised at all. I think Levyon Bell has something to prove.
Starting point is 00:06:38 And I think he was so unhappy with the Jets. And the head coach clearly didn't like Levy on Bell. And obviously he had some injuries, but he's going to go to a team where he's got a chance to win football games and contribute in a big way. and the thing that somehow you forget quickly is what backs are really capable of or what anybody's really capable of when you have a two-year span where their coach doesn't use them that way.
Starting point is 00:07:06 Levy on Bell is one of the best past catching running backs in the history of the NFL. Yeah. It's been incredible out of the backfield as a receiver. That's what they'll use them as in Kansas City. They're so dynamic with their backs and two back sets out of the backfield in Kansas City that Levyon Bell is a huge problem. what do they pay him? It's a one year, it's
Starting point is 00:07:27 a one year deal, right? It's like, I mean, I realize we are where we are, but Levyon Bell would have been a great signer. I love Leveon Bell. When you and I were doing the show and we would have conversations about him and his style and his patience and how
Starting point is 00:07:43 it was so unique, how he would get the ball in the backfield and he would actually just come to a stop. And then all of the sudden, he'd figure out where to go and he'd explode, with speed, with power, with great vision. My theory on this actually was the following theory, and that is, good God, did he hurt Kansas City over the years. Pittsburgh owned Kansas City with Levion Bell
Starting point is 00:08:09 in some really big football games. The last time they met in the postseason in 2017, Pittsburgh went to Arrowhead, won the game 18 to 16, and Levyon Bell, 30 carries 170 yards in the game. The previous regular season, no, that year in the regular season, it was that year in the regular season at Arrowhead. 32 carries 179 yards. I remember those two games because, you know, the Chiefs were, okay, man,
Starting point is 00:08:46 the Chiefs are pretty good. Looks like they can get it done. It's an Andy Reid team. They've got some weapons. and Levyon Bell destroyed them twice. And I was thinking that Andy Reid might think he might end up in Buffalo. He might end up, you know, in a place that he'd end up having to compete with him. And ultimately he's like, I'd rather have him here than see him in the postseason, you know, as a back for,
Starting point is 00:09:15 I'm trying to think of the other AFC teams, Buffalo, New England, you know, not the Raiders, teams that could potentially give them a run that would need backs. Baltimore really doesn't need a back necessarily. So I think he'd rather have him joined with him than have to coach against him because Bell had some of his best games against the Chiefs at Arrowhead. He's, well, he had some of his best games against a lot of teams.
Starting point is 00:09:47 He was incredible. Yeah. The thing that was a problem with Bell, this is a really hard thing for a lot of coaches. And it happens often, especially when players have big time success. This is what I've heard about Bell forever, that he's a pain in the ass, that he does things the way he wants to do things. But at the same time, he works as hard as anybody on the field.
Starting point is 00:10:06 It's just he wants to work his way. And nobody wants to let him work his way. And at some point, certain coaching staffs in the NFL are going to have to say, these guys are going to work their way. We're paying them all. We're paying Levy on Bell, four year, 52, million dollar contract. We,
Starting point is 00:10:22 could we get him on Sunday? We're not, he's not the leader slash example player. We'll find somebody else that we want to have the young players look up to. And ultimately you can say, when you get to his level, you do that shit. But until you get there,
Starting point is 00:10:40 you do it our way. He's got a way that works. It doesn't work for everybody else. I think it, it was hard because a lot of people don't trust. that they can corral Le Dionneville into their system or their culture. That's a really interesting thing. And I think it's really one of those things that in any aspect of life,
Starting point is 00:11:02 in any profession, you have to, as a CEO, as a president, as a coach, as a manager, you have to be open-minded on somebody like that. If that's who he is, if that's what you're describing him to be. it's really about, you know, is, is it worth it? Like to use Tommy's favorite expression is the juice worth the squeezing. In his case, it is because he's so good when it matters most. And then, you know, there are other people where it's just not worth, you know, the headache or having him work that way. I think, I guarantee you there are a lot of people that are listening that have some, you know, quirky.
Starting point is 00:11:50 doesn't fit in with everybody, likes a bit of a loner, wants to sort of do it their way, isn't really manageable, yet produces massive results, and you have to make that decision, are the results better than, is the substance better than the style? Well, substance is always,
Starting point is 00:12:10 if the substance produces, then you should always overlook style for substance. Trent Williams, I'm not going to compare them as an absolute. apples to apples. But Trent Williams during his career, right? Never showed up for OTAs, wasn't there necessarily as a true mentor offseason for a lot of the younger guys, didn't want to work out here, wanted to work out in Texas with his own people. You know, there were some players, I believe that you played with. Wouldn't Clinton? Who? Me, Clinton.
Starting point is 00:12:44 Yeah, Clinton. I was one of those people. I would always end up complying, but Clinton was certainly one of the guys that said, I'm not going to practice hard. It hurts me. If I work, if I overwork and practice, I can't play as hard as I want to play on Sunday. And Gibbs understood that and Zorn didn't. And that was the constant battle with Zorn. And then when the coach makes it the constant battle, then it's highlighted that he's a problem. To your point or Tommy's point is the juice worth of squeezing. The other thing is it's one thing when a player's been on a team like Clinton and a new coach comes in and has a thought process. It's a completely different thing.
Starting point is 00:13:25 When you decided to go out and pay $52 million for orange juice, which you think you're going to turn into cranberry juice. True. You got to know that. They knew. You do your due diligence and your homework and figure out who the player is, and you say, do we like this player? And do we like everything about him? Because we're paying him so much that we have to. Are we going to pay him this much for Sundays in not?
Starting point is 00:13:49 worry about the way he gets to Sunday. You've got to say, if you're going to pay him that, then you've got to say, yes, we're going to let him do it his way. Now, I would suggest that, you know, a team and a franchise like Pittsburgh sort of giving up on him to a certain degree would be a bit of a red flag for me. Like whenever I see the quality franchises decide to move on from a really good player and Levyon Bell was a really good player. That's a red flag. He held out for a year
Starting point is 00:14:26 and a half. He wouldn't show up and play. They wouldn't pay him a long-term deal. They wanted him to keep taking... Well, they have a theory of how to pay a running back. That's true. They wanted to pay him good money. They just didn't want to pay him however much he wanted. The other point to this is how much did we talk about?
Starting point is 00:14:41 You're never going to get back a full year of salary in the national football. his salary tag number was like I think $14 million something like that and we went over and over that's exactly what he won and say I want a long career but you lost a full year of salary in your prime you're not you're not getting it back and he's not this this decision he made to not sign a deal with Pittsburgh and not come back and try to work it out and play cost them a lot of money and especially not to just play under the tag for the year cost him a boatload of money no money in 2018. Not one penny earned in 2018. And he's not going to get near $52 million out of the contract.
Starting point is 00:15:23 Let me quantify it for you because I'm looking at his career earnings. He was obviously on that rookie deal, which was incredibly favorable for the team. He signs the tag in 2017 and he earns $12.1 million. 2018, he refuses to sign the tag for $14 million. He sits out. He loses. He loses. He is $14 million. By the time he gets signed by the Jets, he basically gets a contract worth $14 million, closer to 15, but basically a two-year deal paid him $27 million. So he lost $14 million.
Starting point is 00:16:05 He never made up the $14 million that he sat out for in 2018. Never made it up. Nope. We said all along, he was never going to, I think this was when we were starting our financial clientele list. Right. Was it the PR business or was it the financial advisor business? No, it was the financial advisor business.
Starting point is 00:16:28 Then we said we wish we could have him. Yes, I think we would have also advised him from a PR standpoint not to criticize the Steelers, which he did a couple times. You know, the Steelers are one of those organizations where if players aren't, if it's not working out for players, almost always the organization gets the benefit of the doubt. And you look at the player and say, huh, must be him. Whereas in Washington, it's the opposite. If a player has a problem in criticism, yeah, of course, the player's right.
Starting point is 00:17:02 Makes sense to us. They've got Edwards Allaire, they've got Levy on Bell now, they've got Tyree Kill, they've got Sammy Watkins, they've got Hardman, they've got Kelsey. They've got weapons, man. They have weapons. But something's been off about them. Did we talk about this the other day? Did I say...
Starting point is 00:17:22 You think something's off about them. I don't. Okay. I think something's not... But, you know, we went and looked at last year, and they had a couple of rough moments, too. I mean, look, they've lost one game. They've lost one game.
Starting point is 00:17:39 They could have lost two. Well, they certainly could have lost the Chargers game. That's for sure. All right. I want to read to you some Ron Rivera quotes from yesterday. I'm going to start with this one because there was plenty of discussion after the podcast on Wednesday about your comment that if they had linebackers, if they had the linebackers he had in Carolina, they'd be a top five defense. You basically came out and said the biggest problem. on defense. They don't have linebackers.
Starting point is 00:18:15 They have bad linebacker play. He was asked about linebackers. He said, I'd like to see a little bit more from the linebacker position. I'd like to see them be a little bit more consistent and productive. They've had good numbers, but we've given up some plays. In my opinion, that can be directly related to that position. I'd like to see that position play better for us. And then Jack Del Rio on the linebackers yesterday.
Starting point is 00:18:40 We need more production. He said, we're looking for production from our linebackers and understanding where they are in the scheme of our defense. We're looking for guys to make plays. Trying to find the right combination and the most productive combination are constant. The business is about production. We're learning our team. Our team's learning us. We're attempting to give looks to give opportunities.
Starting point is 00:19:09 It sounds like Cole Holcomb's going to get an opportunity. I told you Wednesday, if Cole Holcomb's healthy, there's literally no way they don't play him. So hold on. Was he, were they asked about the linebackers? I feel bad if they were. They were. They were asked about the linebackers. So I created that.
Starting point is 00:19:27 I think you did too. He also said, I think John. I mean, honestly, you sat and watched it. I sat and watched it. I had people tweeting me. pulled all the clips and put them on Twitter. I mean, it's available to anybody to go out and watch.
Starting point is 00:19:45 You think I was making anything up? Entertain yourself. Del Rio mentioned Cole Holcomb's name multiple times during his presser yesterday. I hope Cole will get more involved. We'd like to get him involved and give him a crack at it. You know, the funny thing about Holcomb is that what I liked about Holcomb last year is I liked the fact that he could run.
Starting point is 00:20:06 You know, there hasn't been enough team speed. defensively for too long. KPL, to me, in the first five games, has shown why they were excited about him because he can run. You've suggested that Bostick can run certainly as a blitzer, and maybe that should be the only reason he's on the field.
Starting point is 00:20:24 They did mention, and Del Rio mentioned, that he likes Bostick's leadership. You know, I think they like Bostick's leadership. But I think we're going to see Holcomb. Where are we going to see Holcomb? As you start suggesting as a coach that a player is a good leader. you're opening a door.
Starting point is 00:20:43 Yeah. The door's been opened. The door to never, never land. Yeah. I want to read a couple of other quotes that have nothing to do with the linebackers. I wanted to start with that in case you hadn't seen it. So the last month with Ron being very back and forth, different opinions here, different, you know, on this day, an opinion on this day,
Starting point is 00:21:09 and then a completely different view and opinion on the following day. And, you know, again, we say it's obvious that he's off. Like, he's not himself nor I think everybody understands why he's not himself. He's fighting cancer right now. But there are two specific quotes I want to read from yesterday. They asked about the team being one and four and him keeping the team mentally sharp. And he said, quote, we're trying to develop this football team. and that's what we're going to do.
Starting point is 00:21:40 Win or lose going forward, the bottom line and the thing we've got to understand is we're going to play to win. We're most certainly going to play to develop guys that we think are going to help us, and that's what we've got to do going forward. So in that one statement, I don't want to nitpick, but it's developed this football team, but we're going to play to win, but we're going to develop guys that we think will help us in the future going forward. Then there's a quote later on that sort of adds to that. He says, things are going to be hard. I've said that from the beginning.
Starting point is 00:22:14 This is not going to be easy. Just because I'm showing up does not mean we're going to win the division. We've got to work through it. There are a lot of things to grow through. You have to keep playing. You've got to keep playing the guys that you think are going to help you going forward. That's what we're trying to do. We're going to play guys that we think are going to help us.
Starting point is 00:22:35 But as I said, there's a lot. also an interesting stretch right now. There are five games that are very impactful and that we have an opportunity and a chance. What he's saying is, again, sort of back and forth between the development and the winning the games, but there's, there are two lines from both of these quotes that I think are very revealing about the way they view Dwayne Haskins. When he says twice, we are going to keep playing the guys that you think are going to help you going forward. We're going to play guys that we think are going to help us in the future. This is revealing because they're not playing Dwayne.
Starting point is 00:23:16 Like, Dwayne doesn't fit into their future. This is hardly a big reveal. But it's damning. Like, because yesterday he also said, we're going to give Dwayne another chance. I hope Dwayne, you know, has a chance to develop here. You know, he's saying both things. But the bottom line is he thinks he can be competitive now in the next. next couple of games will tell the tale. But then it's about developing the players that he wants
Starting point is 00:23:41 to see a part of his program next year and beyond. Well, that's what you should always be doing. You should always be looking to play the players that can help you in the future, unless that player's definitively worse than the player that's at your position, which the positions we've been talking about, there's just no chance. People get so critical of what we're evaluating players. When Mike said that in 2012, where we're going to evaluate everybody, you're always evaluating everybody. You're always trying to play the best players. I understand that. I'm just saying that the phrase you have to keep playing the guys you think are going to help you going forward is essentially an indictment on Haskins not being a part of that group, given that he's not
Starting point is 00:24:26 even benched, but he's a third stringer. Who else is it about? Well, I think it's about the linebacker conversation on defense, I think it's about anybody who hasn't played effectively to this point in the season. Yeah. I mean, it's, it's interesting, though, because they're veteran play. Lana Collins has played poorly this season. They're not trying anybody else out at that position. So it still only applies to the positions that are low-cap positions.
Starting point is 00:24:57 Yeah. The, you know, the trade deadlines coming up in a couple of weeks. and I was having this conversation with Standig this morning about the players. First of all, Standings reached out to a couple of NFL execs that essentially say you're not going to get much for Dwayne right now. And they didn't help themselves, obviously, with the way they handled this in keeping whatever value he may have had at that level. The other thing is in thinking about players that they may move on from, you've got to think about the players who aren't under contract next year. you're Ryan Carrigan, Ryan Anderson, and maybe Fabian Moreau. It wouldn't surprise me if they moved Carrigan at the trade deadline at all.
Starting point is 00:25:41 Wouldn't surprise me. They're not going to get anything for Ryan Carrigan. What would you get for Ryan Carragon? Nothing. Because of the way he's playing? Yeah, I think it was entertained to potentially trade him last year for a fifth or sixth. Yeah. You also got to continue to pay his salary for the rest of the year.
Starting point is 00:25:58 So whoever takes him two weeks is going to end up paying $6 million. the rest of the season. Right. You would have gotten more than a fifth or six for Ryan. No, you wouldn't have. Yeah, you would have. No. Kevin?
Starting point is 00:26:10 I totally disagree with you. I love when you disagree with me, but I'm right on this one. I don't think you are right, and I'll tell you why. Well, I'll tell you why I am right. It's because I know I'm right because I know. Just like they said that about Trent Williams? You still think they were going to get a one for Trent Williams? I absolutely, I certainly, if not a one, a second and a third.
Starting point is 00:26:31 or a second and a fourth, yes. Had they moved him at the right time? Yeah, absolutely. I would have definitely taken a second and third. I still think back to that first conversation you and I had, I think, on a podcast a couple years ago where I said you could get a second and a third form, second and fourth, or maybe not even that because of the potential to have to negotiate the contract. You go back to the first.
Starting point is 00:26:56 Trades are really fickle and it's really interesting what you think you can get for somebody and there's a lot behind the trade and there's a lot that goes into the salary and what you're going to have to deal with when you move forward. Yes. They got a third. Right now with Ryan Kerrigan, a year ago with Ryan Kerrigan, you were going to get a year and a half.
Starting point is 00:27:15 The, who is Chris Long? Look up whatever when he was traded to Philadelphia, if he was traded or if he was ever traded at any point, what was given for Chris Long? It would have been similar to that. And last year, if you were to sign Kerrigan, if you were to trade for Kerrigan you had to have $11 million on your cap this year and guaranteed money yeah i understand that no one would have paid that one year one year
Starting point is 00:27:40 so it would have been to renegotiate with ryan carrigan and maybe he would have done that and so i you weren't getting better than a sixth chris long which trade are you looking for i don't know if chris long was traded for it to be honest with you or if he just became a free agent when he left i think when he left st louis he signed like a two-year deal deal with New England in 2016. He was with the Eagles. The Eagles. Yeah, I can't find that.
Starting point is 00:28:10 Look, ultimately, with no leverage left in the Trent Williams situation, they got a third and a fifth from the 49ers. So I, in looking through some of those trades, and we've been through this conversation, it's an old conversation. But in looking through, you know, the Tunsell deal and. some of the other deals that have been made, the brown trade to Seattle, there's no reason that Trent Williams
Starting point is 00:28:39 had you traded him on the up and up before the cancer scare, before the issue medically, there's no reason why you wouldn't have gotten a second and a third for Trent Williams. You just would have been. Absolutely. And Cleveland, it was reported that Cleveland was talking first round picket the trade deadline in 2019, and that the Patriots were interested in a late first for Trent
Starting point is 00:29:08 in the training camp going into 2019. And who knows what Houston would have done if Trent had been available, made available, rather than than Tunsel. The bottom, by the way, the way, the way ultimately they handled Trent, Williams and Kirk Cousins, in which they got two thirds and a fifth, ultimately, was damaging to the organization. It very easily could have been two firsts had it been managed properly. And worst case, a first, a second, and a third. I just don't see it.
Starting point is 00:29:47 I don't see Trent being different. I don't see a lot of trades being more positive than people get. I agree it's always hard on these trades, but you're discounting the reporting as it relates to Trent. You're discounting the reporting as it relates to Kirk. The 49ers would have given up a first for Kirk. That I do believe. I think they would have given up that year didn't they have at least like an early second? Remember, they swapped with the bears.
Starting point is 00:30:13 They took Solomon Thomas, who turned out not to be great. But the discussion really is that the 49ers that they had to would have given up that top three number one. They had the other number one at the end of the first round. That's what Mike told you. Yes, he did. He did. That doesn't mean it's a guarantee. The reporting was that the 49ers were willing to give up a first rounder for Kirk Cousins.
Starting point is 00:30:36 It's just a matter of which of the two first rounders they had that year because they had two of them. I think that was the year that everyone said stick around through the late in the first day. We were doing a show at Redskins Park. Right. And there was a real potential. traded on the board in the 20s. Yeah, whatever. No, this is all old stuff.
Starting point is 00:31:06 This is my fault for taking us down this road. All right, let's take a break, come back, and we will talk about how Washington beats the Giants, right after a word from one of our sponsors. All right, Washington and New York Sunday. Big one, Code Red, maybe. It's certainly a game that if you're really a believer, that Washington can, as coach said, make hay in the division, it's must win. You can't lose the Giants. Even though the Giants have been a competitive team, they have not, they got blown out
Starting point is 00:31:43 by the Niners in every other game. They were in those games. In the last two weeks, had legitimate chances to win over the Rams and the Cowboys. The Rams, they were down 10-9 in the fourth quarter. All right, we'll do our Washington beats New York. If Cooley will give, a key, I'll give a key, we'll go back and forth, you start. I'm going to start with sacking Daniel Jones. Pressure is going to be a key to get sacks, but Daniel Jones is not getting near enough credit for being able to avoid pressure and still get balls down the field. Me, prime example, go watch the Dallas game.
Starting point is 00:32:25 Yeah. He is consistently under pressure. They're both of their tackles. Andrew Thomas, their left tackle that they took from Georgia, and Cameron Thomas, the right tackle right now, who was in Dallas, are both giving up big time pressures. Now, Andrew Thomas is struggling quite a bit. And so sacking Daniel Jones is going to be absolutely critical.
Starting point is 00:32:47 This is an offense that I joke about with Jason and Garrett all the time. It's dull. He's dull. He's got nothing going on. That's not necessarily the case. It's a pretty versatile offense that complements itself really well with runs. screen, varieties of run, personnel packages. I think when you watch the Giants offensively, they're not bad. When they get hurt is when you really put pressure on Daniel Jones. He'll throw picks in those situations.
Starting point is 00:33:13 He'll throw balls up for grabs in those situations. And he's got terrible ball security in the pocket. Also watching Dallas. Sack fumble touchdown. So real dynamic sack Daniel Jones. Let's call it six sacks in this game. You can win the ballgame. Well, that was my second key.
Starting point is 00:33:30 I'll start by just adding to that. You know, he's been sacks 16 times, fourth most times in the league. Pressuring him is very important. He'll turn it over under pressure. He's got eight turnovers in five games, five interceptions, three lost fumbles. We saw that. But I made this note, Cooley, which you mentioned. He can make plays.
Starting point is 00:33:50 He can make plays off schedule. He can be very elusive of a pass rush. By the way, I mentioned this the other day to you, I think. he passes the eye test for me. That's the, you know, that saying of look at the numbers, they're not very good, but he passes the high test for me. And the play in the, at the end of the game where it was tied up at 3434, he ultimately did not lead them into field goal range, but it was a second and a 10,
Starting point is 00:34:22 deep in their own territory, under two minutes to go. He slips through the pass rush, gets on the outside, and makes a good. great throw to Darius Slayton for like 15 yards to move the chains. He can do that. I think there's something to Daniel Jones. I want your thoughts on that when I finish up this point. But if you pressure him and you don't let him get out of the way and you hurry him, he will turn it over. By the way, on the scrambling thing, I found this number. He has scrambled this year for eight first downs. That leads the team in rushing for first downs. And he does it with his legs and he's all the while looking downfield. You got to pressure him so that you have a chance to turn him over, but you can't
Starting point is 00:35:10 let him lose. You can't let him get out because he can hurt you. What do you think? Do you believe what I believe, which is that forget the numbers, the two touchdowns, six picks, the turnovers, that he passes the eye test to a certain degree or not? I think he passes the eye test as a guy that's getting it done right now, but he's getting it done while he's growing. So when I look at Daniel Jones through the last couple of games, he's definitely elusive. And he can make a lot of throws on the move, big throws on the move. And he knows when he has to move. And you talked about eyes downfield.
Starting point is 00:35:45 He is looking to move to throw the football. Right. He's not duck in his head and trying to dodge rush to just survive. Now, I like when you watch young quarterback grow, his pocket mechanics under pressure are awful. The ball's everywhere, his feet are everywhere, but he's looking downfield. And so in seeing that, you see a guy that will potentially grow with his comfortability in the pocket and his feet to start to really move very easily and still be able to deliver the ball. I think right now you see a guy that's continuing to get better and better and better and a guy that's under a lot of pressure will he gets better.
Starting point is 00:36:35 Some of the negatives are he'll just force throws. And to me, a lot of the quick game stuff, the one, two, three, he wants to get to number one, the first read, like hit your third step, let that thing go. And he's forcing balls, especially to Ingram. If I was playing the Giants right now, I'd be all over Ingram early and short stuff. Yeah. Because he'll force throws to Ingram. You bait him to force throws to Ingram in three-step drop situations.
Starting point is 00:37:03 But he's better than people are giving him credit for right now. There's no doubt about it. That offense is running because of Daniel Jones. I think that's true. There are a couple of things that I noticed last weekend watching him. I think that at times he's inaccurate on like the short and medium throw. but I think he throws a good deep ball. Especially to the middle and right side of the field,
Starting point is 00:37:26 I think he's really consistent with his ball placement and his ability to get balls to where guys can have a chance. I think his accuracy is pretty good down the field. Actually, let me pull this up as I had it. The good news is... He's like five of eight down the field. He is. Okay, I didn't know what the numbers were... I just remember...
Starting point is 00:37:45 To the right and to the middle. Okay. He's 0 for 2 outside. the left deep. And he's two for eight outside left and medium. I think another interesting stat would be when you do get to him and you are able to sack him, how often does he drop the ball? Because he really does not protect the football. No, that ball is out there. It is out there. The other interesting thing when you watch and play, like how many times is he throwing the
Starting point is 00:38:14 ball while getting hit? A lot. I mean, he is getting hit. He is getting pressured. a boatload. I mean, it's like most quarterbacks, one in five, one and six are real pressure situations, if not less. Daniel Jones is close to pressured on half of his throws. I'll bet you if there's a stat to it, it's near half of his throws, at least a, at least a quarter of his throws, he's getting pressured, hit, scrambling, moving, running. It's, you know, it's going to be really interesting.
Starting point is 00:38:50 We've got a really interesting potential offseason, and I know we're just at the beginning of this season. But when it comes to quarterbacks, if the Jets and the Giants in Washington are all at the top of the draft board again, now Washington obviously is going to be in the market for a quarterback in the 2021 draft. I think we can all safely say that. But what do you do if you're the Giants and you've got Trevor Lawrence, is a possibility.
Starting point is 00:39:21 You know, what if you're the Jets? See, to me, Sam, Darnold passes the eye test every time I watch him. He's been on a terrible football team. He has, but he has, in the last year and a half, he has not passed the I test in multiple games. To me, he does as a competitor and as a playmaker. He's also, he also gets hurt a lot. But imagine, you know, you've got the Jets and the Giants at the top of the draft
Starting point is 00:39:48 board with, you know, recent first-round selections in Darnold and Daniel Jones. You know, you mentioned the, he's under pressure. I was reading something, and I had this guy from the athletic who covers the Giants, Dan Duggan on the radio show this morning. Andrew Thomas, who was picked number four overall. It has not been impressive. They're not happy with him, yeah. No, he's been awful.
Starting point is 00:40:15 He's gotten beat by Bull Rush. He's gotten beat by speed. He's gotten beat with up and under. You know, it was funny. Andrew Thomas was just the most consistent. They said most ready. The most ready. The most ready.
Starting point is 00:40:28 But he wasn't, there was nothing when you watched Andrew Jones or Andrew Thomas in college. I remember watching him with a couple guys when you watched him that said he's a mauler. He's an athletic freak. There's no Trent Williams in Andrew Thomas. He's just the most consistent player in the draft last year. and that's what everyone seems to want it left tackle. He'll end up being a decent left tackle. I'll bet you he will.
Starting point is 00:40:53 There are a lot of tackles taken in the top half of the draft last year. Remember, Jedrick Wills, who we already saw in Cleveland. He's playing a lot and playing well. I have no idea how Bechton, the kid from Louisville, is doing with the Jones. Guy Bechton was the guy if he had the drive that you wanted. But that was the thing that everyone questioned was Beckton's soft. Worf's. Worf's is starting in Tampa.
Starting point is 00:41:18 And I have no idea how he's doing. Brady's been under pressure a lot. All right. Washington beats New York if. Give me your second key. Well, we alternate when we do this. I know, but I sort of just agreed with your first one because it was my second. Well, you're your first one.
Starting point is 00:41:35 All right. I'll give you my first one. This is, you know, more fun than it is profound. But they can't punt as much as they punted last week. They have to punt half as many times this week as they did last week. They punted 10 times against the Rams. I would say that a key to the game is not punning any more than five times against the Giants. Obviously, this is a way to describe how important it is that they move the ball this week,
Starting point is 00:42:08 that they move the chains, that they approach scoring territory, that they actually score some points, and they give the defense some time to catch. breath. And, you know, Cooley, last week I gave you the number about punts. This week, it's obviously much worse. Washington has punted 31 times in five games. Of the teams that have played five games, the next closest are the terrible jets who have only punted 25 times, six punts less. That's too much punting for tressway. And the reason they're punting it so much is they don't make first downs. They're dead last, not even close offensively on third down converting 29.9% of their third down opportunities. Now, on the flip side, here's something positive.
Starting point is 00:42:57 The giants are 31st in third down defense. They allow 53.9% conversions on third down. So something has to give here, as they say. But bottom line is, it's just not been enough offensively. They're 30th in scoring. They're dead last in yards per game at 263. And we know that last week was one of the most embarrassing offensive performances in recent NFL history, 108 total yards, minus six in the second half, where they did not have one first down. And obviously, they didn't have any points either. So, you know, the punting thing was a way to get to, they've got to move the football. They've got to convert some on third down. They've got to punt less.
Starting point is 00:43:47 You know, the defense, I know what you said about the defense, and we went through the whole film breakdown. It also couldn't have helped that when they got to the sideline, especially in the second half after a bunch of stops, they basically got water squirted into their mouth and were told
Starting point is 00:44:02 to get back on the field, because that's how quick the offense was out, you know, out there and then back on the sideline. It's just out of water here. Get ready to get back on the field. The offense is going to go three and out. We know that. Quick water, quick water. Maybe a little oxygen break. Get back out there.
Starting point is 00:44:15 John Allen, you know, walks over to the sideline. Hey, I need some oxygen water. We can give you water. We don't have time for the oxygen. There's only four oxygen tanks. Not enough time. You're seventh in line. You're one, one cycle through.
Starting point is 00:44:29 In the meantime, you hear, you hear Nate Katz are screaming. Trest, Truss, punt team, punt team. Punt team. Put team. Oh, my God. I've never seen a team punt that much. The punt team just stands on alert at all times. I'm ready to go.
Starting point is 00:44:43 The offense is on the field. Putt literally as Kyle Allen's walking out of the field for a first and 10 from their own 42-yard line, punt team, get ready, punt team, get ready. I mean, how discouraging it must be because you know that they've got to be on alert. Because that three-play drive is going pretty quickly. You can't have a lot of three-play drives. That doesn't work. So anyway, what's your next Washington wins if?
Starting point is 00:45:15 Well, this will be on the lighthearted side as well, but I think you'll like this. The clock management at the end of the half and at the end of the game has got to gain you a net six points. Well, that's not going to. It's a situation. And you understand what I mean by net six points. You need to gain points, not allow the giants to have opportunities at the end of the half and at the end of the game. Right. understood it might not happen but they win the game if they do that if they manage the clock
Starting point is 00:45:46 appropriately and at the end of the half can can score a touchdown or field goal versus give them the ball back or box something i mean three games out of five so far they've had an interception within the last minute of the half right they had opportunities and they took advantage in philadelphia i mean it's it's simple it's lighthearted but some of the management decisions at the end of the halves. They got the last three points last week. They got the last three points last week. And they got the seven in Philadelphia at the end of that. But it should have been a big, I've went through very clearly that they had an opportunity to score seven points. Or if you want to call it, a real opportunity, they could have, they had an opportunity to score eight.
Starting point is 00:46:29 Seriously, though? Yeah. Here's my real second Washington wins if. they need to create six pass plays of 20 plus yards and i think in those six past plays they need to throw the ball more than 10 yards to get that 20 yard game new york will play them and everyone will play them short to deep they're right now in a true situation where the run action pass or the throws down the field will actually help the run game it was always thought of and still isn't a lot of places that the run game is going to create for the passing game. Washington's run game is not going to create for the passing game because nobody believes you're ever going to get over the top. So even if they continue to run the ball for four and a half, five yards of carry, New York will just play over the top defense.
Starting point is 00:47:25 They'll say you can't consistently get five yards. One of our guys is going to make a play, tackle for loss at some point and stop a drive you. Someone's going to make a mistake. You're not consistent enough. You can't nickel and dime us down the field. You're not Hank Stram over there. There's no matriculation. And so for me, they have to create pass plays of 20 plus yards.
Starting point is 00:47:44 And I think that's six of them. By the way, when you talk about how they stopped the Rams last week, the Rams got no big plays. They did not allow chunk plays to the Rams. That was two weeks ago. You're talking about the Giants, how they slowed the Rams down. Yeah, how the Giants defense stopped the Rams. how they held the Rams to 17 points. They didn't give up chunk plays.
Starting point is 00:48:06 It's a different defense in New York than you've seen in a long time. There's three, four defense now. There's decent secondary play. Peppers. Debril Peppers is a pretty good player. They're pretty good up front on defense with Dexter Lawrence and Dalvin Tomlinson and Leonard Williams. And they're not going to have to come out of two-shell defense
Starting point is 00:48:31 is even if you're starting to get three, four, five yards of carry, because they believe up front those guys will end up stopping the run. I like Blake Martinez and Kyla Fackerel, both linebackers as well. They lost Lorenzo Carter, who was leading them in sacks and quarterback pressures. He tore his Achilles last week. He's done Lorenzo. But Marcus Golden is a decent player at that position. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:48:55 So Marcus Golden was a guy that was in Arizona for a long time in those. That's right. This was never the best player. but I think he wore 44 there. He wears 44 for the Giants now. Golden's a pretty good player. By the way, under. So they're good a plot.
Starting point is 00:49:08 And so to me, you're going to have to create plays against James Bradbury, who, by the way, Rivera knows really well. They're starting left. Playing very well, too. Playing very well. But Rivera should know how to challenge Bradbury. And you've got to create plays against Logan Ryan or down the field. To me, that's how you win the game on offense,
Starting point is 00:49:28 is you start to get chunk plays and open up your offense. a little bit. I've said it almost every week to some extent, but I don't see him nickel and I'm in this giant's defense down the field. The front will create too many problems. A lot of discussion that Bradbury basically took Amari Cooper out of the game last week and was very effective and has been very effective. They are thrilled in New York with that acquisition of Bradbury. And he'll be on McLaurin more likely than not. My next Washington wins if is they've got to protect Kyle Allen. I mean, it was under duress, under siege quickly.
Starting point is 00:50:07 And the Giants, you know, have a timely pass rush. Now, they lost Lorenzo Carter, as I mentioned, to an Achilles injury, and he was a big part of the pass rush. But obviously last week, there were too many sacks. By the way, I didn't even mention to you, by the way, by the way. There's going to be a new offensive line this week. Sheriff is going to be back, and Sadiq Charles, more likely than not, is going to start a guard for West Martin. They're going to move him to guard.
Starting point is 00:50:36 He's been working a guard this week. So we're going to see a different offensive line. We're going to see Sheriff back, and we're going to see Sadiq Charles, the rookie fourth rounder from LSU, who is drafted to be basically the replacement for Trent Williams at left tackle. He's going to be in there at guard. What do you make of that? Well, Sadiq Charles was a guy that they love. athletically. He was a character-issue guy or most people thought he was a first-round pick. I think that's, this is funny, right? We got problems at linebacker and we got problems at left
Starting point is 00:51:12 guard right now based on last week. I mean, the West Martin thing that you hate, he was against Aaron Donald most of the game. And West Martin would be sitting there saying, I lost my job because Darren Donald kicked my ass all day. And we didn't game plan for him. And they didn't game plan for him. But this, and they didn't game plan for him. But the scary thing about what Wes did was he abandoned all technique and panicked in that game. He quit playing the way he knew how to play and played a different way just to try to save himself, which is the worst thing you could possibly do. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:51:42 So I think Sadiq Charles will be really interesting to see if he can play. And you get him in the left garden if he can play and he like his work ethic and you like how he's handling himself. I think at some point you could see him potentially playing left half. tackle. Right. Put Switzer back in at left guard or West Martin back in at left guard. But I think you've got to find out what you have in Sadiq. And right now, that's a great spot to see what you have in it. All right.
Starting point is 00:52:13 Your next one. Washington wins if. So I just went two. So now it's your turn. You're up. You roll the dice. You went to? All right. It sort of dovetails on your end of half-clock management.
Starting point is 00:52:27 But this is a very interesting thing. The Giants have kicked a lot of field goals this year. I don't know if you've noticed that or not, but Graham Ganoe, who is their kicker, were very familiar with Graham Ganoe. Not to mention another guy is very familiar with Graham Ganoe, and that would be Ron Rivera because he kicked in Carolina as well for many years. He's in New York.
Starting point is 00:52:48 Believe it or not, he's in his 11th year in the NFL. He is 13 of 14 on the season through five games. All right, so he's kicked. 13 field goals in five games so far. And last week, he kicked three beyond 50 yards. He kicked a 50-yarder, well, not beyond, 50-yarder, 54-yarder, and a 55-yard field goal against the Cowboys. And the point here is that I know Dallas is Dallas and it's basically indoor and therefore, you know, these kickers indoor on field turf, it's like, you know, anywhere from 50, 57, 58, and in, people are going to try it. Doesn't matter about score, time, or quarter.
Starting point is 00:53:34 I mean, this is field goal range. When they cross midfield, they're a few yards away from field goal range with him. So I expect personally a lower scoring game this week. I don't see Kyle Allen lighting the Giants up, and I don't see Daniel Jones and the Giants lighting Washington up. I think it's one of the lowest over-unders on the board this week. It actually might be the lowest this week. In another week of high over-unders, it is. It's the lowest over-under on the board this week at 43 currently. And I could see a game in which these field goals matter.
Starting point is 00:54:14 So when they approach their own 45-yard line, 47-yard line, they're 10 yards or less away from field goal range. And you have to understand that. Like, you know, there's field position and there's an understanding of, oh, we could let him get to the red zone, then we'll tighten up. They can score with the way Gano's kicking a lot more than maybe Washington can. Like, do you trust Hopkins right now from 50 or longer? He's been very inconsistent from that range. The odd thing is, is I know he can make that kick.
Starting point is 00:54:46 And so, yeah, I do trust him, but I'm also not surprised to see it doink off the goalpost. Right. Or go wide right or wide left or whatever. Or anywhere, not between the uproats. Yeah, he's got the legs. So, you know, if you believe that this could be, you know, a 13, 10 game, 16, 13, somewhere in that area, you got to stop the Giants at midfield. You've got to stop them from getting into range because they're going to send Ganoe out there once they hit the 40-yard line. Now, I looked at the weather because we know the Meadowlands.
Starting point is 00:55:18 You know it. You played in it, and you can get some wind and you can get some issues. going in different directions, but it's supposed to be beautiful on Sunday in East Rutherford. 63 sunny, no wind. Keep in mind, you already mentioned that it was indoors. No, he kicked indoors last week. Oh, okay. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:55:37 Now, I was saying that last, a lot of times, you know, the coaches will let him kick from anywhere indoors, you know. And last week in Dallas, he made a 55-yard or 54-yard or 50-yarder. Maybe this week in the Meadowlands, if they get to the 30-8. eight-yard line, maybe they're not going to let them kick a 55-yard. If they get to the 40-yard line, maybe it's into the wind and they end up punting. And by the way, if they punt to this team, unlike Dallas, they're going to get the ball back pretty quickly. Whereas when you're punting to the Cowboys last week, you're like, no, let's get three on
Starting point is 00:56:11 the board and kick it off to him rather than punt it with no points. But Gano has been very, very good this year for them. and he could ultimately end up being a huge key in the game. He nearly was last week. So stop Graham Ganoe. We're six minutes left in the first quarter. They line up for a 55-yarder. Ron calls his first time out.
Starting point is 00:56:38 I'm icing him. You ice Ganoe in the first quarter. He's doomed. I just think that I'm seeing a lower scoring game. I'm seeing the winner, not. score 20 or more points this week. I'm seeing a bunch of field goal attempts in this game. No, I could absolutely see that.
Starting point is 00:56:59 I could 100% see that. All right. Do you have another one or not? Yeah, I have one more slight. What do you got for this? What do you got? Washington wins if. I think second down defense will be critical for him. I do.
Starting point is 00:57:14 I think you've got to get Daniel Jones into some third down situations. That's what Jack Del Rio. defenses do. They get them into third and 20, and then they get stops. But in all seriousness, Washington is allowing too many yards and too many big plays on second down and six, second down and seven, second down and eight, those type of situations. Defensively, you do have to get in true rust situations against Daniel Jones.
Starting point is 00:57:41 They'll get pressure on him if they get in rush situations. And so for me, it's not allowing those chunk type plays. or those move the sticks and second downs. The more times that you could put pressure on Daniel Jones and potentially force interceptions or fumbles, which likely is second 10 or third and seven plus, the better chance you have to get to my first key,
Starting point is 00:58:06 which is the sack Daniel Jones six times in this ballgame. Second down defense is going to be huge for them. Don't give up four yards, five, save, whatever. Let's get them in third and mediums to long and you'll be in good shape. Second down defense, I think it's critical. I think that's such an underrated way of thinking and under-reported, if you will, statistic in the NFL. I'm sure you can find it.
Starting point is 00:58:30 And that is on defense, you've got to have first and second down success if you're going to get off the field. You know, we had the conversation the other day about the teams that when they look at second and long, they look at just getting back into third and makeable, whereas some teams like the chiefs in particular, You know, they view second and 20 as, oh, let's go get the whole 20. Actually, let's get 40. And the third and in the NFL, man, there is such a difference between third and two, third and three and third and ten. It's amazing how, as an NFL fan watching these games, when you're third and ten or longer, how many teams really can't do it? Third and seven, the denotion line.
Starting point is 00:59:17 Like when you're creating a game plan as an offense, it's third and one-ish, then it's two to six, and then it's seven to 11. You have groups of plays for those certain yardages. And so get them in third and sevens. That's really the number. Third and seven plus. You know, Washington is 12th in the league in third down defense. Last year dead last. How many years over the last 10 have they just been at the bottom of third down defensive numbers?
Starting point is 00:59:54 They were 32nd last year. In 2016, they were dead last on third down. And they're 12th. They've been better on third down. But, you know, you also have one of those games like the opener in which they were dominant and they sacked, you know, a couple of games that's, sort of skewed that. But anyway, I think that's one of those things. Like Kansas City, just to get them into a third down when you're playing them is like a win, you know, because you can't stop them
Starting point is 01:00:23 on first and second. Like, I'm going to look up the stat of the number of third down opportunities on offense and how many third down, who's had the fewest attempted third downs? And the Packers have had the fewest third down attempts, which obviously means considering, you know, how good they've been and how little they turn the ball over, they just aren't getting into third down a lot. Seattle doesn't get into third down a lot. Tennessee hasn't gotten into third down a lot. Actually, Kansas City's further up the list than I would have guessed, but I think that's largely because of the last two games. You also have a lot of teams in here that have only played four games. So that's my fault. Green Bay's only played
Starting point is 01:01:08 four games. Of the teams that have played five games, Seattle has the fewest third-down attempts, followed by Minnesota who's been very productive offensively, and then the
Starting point is 01:01:24 49ers, the Panthers, okay, Ravens are there. Usually, I would imagine, Cooley, the fewer third-down attempts you have, the better offensive team, you tend to be. No, the teams with fewer third down attempts are the teams that I love because it's
Starting point is 01:01:41 essentially the teams that believe that they can get a first down on any down, which is my number one primary offensive mindset if I ever call plays. Unless my team's garbage and I don't ever believe that I can get nine yards on second down, which I think is ludicrous. I'm trying to get plays in any given down. I'm trying to get yards in any given down. I hate trying to get three yards and third and nine to get your second nine to get your second at nine to get to third and six.
Starting point is 01:02:07 And the smart coaches believe that they're either going to get to a third and two or one or they're going to get the first down and they're not afraid to take shots. Second down doesn't, you just look, everyone looks at football as a, you got to get into third manageable. Yeah. Good teams get big yards in second down situations. The Giants have been good in second down. Our defense hasn't been particularly good in second down.
Starting point is 01:02:32 I think you flip it and I think maybe you start treating. second and seven like a blitz down. Like, hey, we're going to get after the quarterback down. We're going to get you in a third and 12. We're going to have sacks. We're going to have dynamic run stops. Well, how about viewing second and 15 that way? Instead of playing, you know, more conservatively in allowing the eight, nine yard play to set
Starting point is 01:02:57 up third and six, why not treat second and 12, second and 13, second and 15 more aggressively to knock them out of any opportunity? on third down. I love that. And if you're not, how about at least tackle, or how about not giving up more than four on second and 15? God, how many times? It's just amazing to me. And maybe this is more, all of our second and 15s over the last 10 years,
Starting point is 01:03:23 you're watching this team give up huge plays. Like, it's second 15. I know. God, there was that year. 2016, Washington's third and longer than defense was the worst since the merger in 2016. If it was third and eight, third and 12, third and 15, it was like, yep, they're going to get it. By the way, as we were sitting here, I remember the 2012 season with RG3, and I remember Trent Dilfer, you were playing, so you weren't available to be discussing, you know,
Starting point is 01:03:56 football. Trent Dilfer came on my show all the time with Tommy. And one of the things he said about the 2012 Washington office, defense designed by Kyle and Mike was that it was the best first and second down offense he had ever seen. And I just went and pulled up the 2012 third down numbers. Washington had the fewest number of third down attempts in the entire league in 2012, which just tells you how good their first and second down defense was. In fact, like if you go through the next couple of years, same numbers, you know,
Starting point is 01:04:35 the number that they produced, which was like 190 that year, are fewer. That's a really good number overall in terms of third downs through 16 games. Actually, it's pretty comparable as I'm going through some of these anyway. But yeah, I mean, like when I watch Baltimore and Kansas City, two totally different ways of being really effective on first and second down. But it just seems like, you know, even if they do have a third down, they're going to get it because it's third and one or third and two, and they've got so many options.
Starting point is 01:05:07 Baltimore obviously can just run it. You know, they can just zone read it almost all the time to move the sticks. Baltimore may be the most difficult third and short team to stop because of Lamar Jackson and the versatility of him as a runner. Right? They're so hard to stop in so many downs because of Lamar Jackson. And also with the idea that if you're third and third, three or even third and four you're so versatile and Baltimore feels like if we get two or three
Starting point is 01:05:39 we'll just we'll go for it on fourth right exactly they are truly versatile because they know they can if they can get two on third and four they're still this fourth down is not a punt down right so you you can't definitively put them in a past situation until it's third and six plus third and seven plus most teams are in a past situation after third and three yeah a lot of teams are in a past situation in third and two. I mean... The crazy thing about third and three is... You should run it.
Starting point is 01:06:08 You should be 50-50. Yeah, you should. Almost everybody in the league averages over three yards of carry. You should run it on third and three. You should definitely run it when you're facing nickel on third and three. There's no doubt about it. Analytics would say if you average 3.4 yards of carry, what should you do on third and three? Yeah, what...
Starting point is 01:06:28 Your completion... What should you average against a nickel defense? rushing the ball. If the nickel was in there the entire game, what would your yards per, how would that increase yards per carry? I think to answer your question, the personnel you put on the field denotes the defense that you get. If you went two tight ends or tied in a fullback and a base offense, you would get base defense. Okay, fine. So don't go, so don't go, you know. But to your point, what is your, what is your yards per carry with three wide receivers in the ball game? Give me 11 personnel and run.
Starting point is 01:07:02 In fact, it is. Give me 11 personnel and run it. Agreed. One other quick thing on this game. No Saquan Barclay. Barclay's killed them. He's averaged 196 total rushing and receiving yards in his three games against Washington. In watching them last week, which was the first opportunity, other than that Pittsburgh
Starting point is 01:07:22 Monday night game start to finish that I've watched the Giants. Freeman looks good to me. That was a good pickup for that. Awesome. Huge pickup. Yeah, really good. pick up for them. They're great for them. All right. Smell test lock of the week.
Starting point is 01:07:40 We'll look at some of the other key games of the weekend and we'll have a pick on the Washington Giant game to finish up right after this word from one of our sponsors. Kevin looks where the John Q public is putting their cash and does the opposite. It's time for the smell test. Week seven, coolly of the smell test. That means we've had six smell. tests so far this year. And I'm pretty sure that I've had a losing week in five of the six weeks prior. Double down. Last week was, what did you say? Double down. Double down. Chase mode. Last week was three and five on the week. Thankfully, I got Georgia Tech on Friday night right because Kooley basically told me he
Starting point is 01:08:28 was done with the podcast if I didn't get Georgia Tech right because you bet a lot of money on Georgia Tech. I was 3 and 5 last week. I'm 16, 24, and 2 overall. So I'm down 8 units. All right, 8 units below 500. Now, to win money, you've got to go about 52.2% or whatever it is. So you want to finish, you know, several games above 500. But, you know, the record will eventually, I will promise you this.
Starting point is 01:08:58 The record, unless the football season shuts down due to COVID with me holding a losing record. the record will rise above 500 at some point. Now, whether or not I can keep it there for the 11th year out of 15 seasons will be another question altogether because this is not a good start. But these things, if you continue to play the right way and stick with the way you play, hit on 16 against a jack, all right, and play the right way, it will come around. Well, what you're suggesting really is more that the house will always win, and you're attempting to play the house, and the house will suggest that a lot of people will not hit on 16, so you'll win those games. Yeah, I am picking games that typically the house needs. I'm on their side, not on your side, so you should be on my side.
Starting point is 01:09:53 All right, let's get to this week, and I actually like two games tonight in college football. Both of them fit the smell test criteria of heavy, public action on one side and sharp action on the non-public side. The game that starts at 6 o'clock tonight is Tulane. They're not bad. They're two and two. They're facing undefeated, 18th ranked SMU. The game being played in New Orleans, Tulane's getting six and a half. And I like Tulane. They've been a good team for me in recent years. Now, I think I had them a couple of weeks ago, and they did not come through. Who did I have them against? I had them against Navy and they didn't come through, I think.
Starting point is 01:10:35 I had them laying six and they lost the game outright. And they were up 24-0 nothing in that game, and Navy came roaring back. But they're capable of scoring, and they're a well-coached team. SMU beat Memphis last week. They're 4-0. They're ranked.
Starting point is 01:10:53 You know, it's a weird year. Would they be ranked at 4-0 if every Big 10 team had played and every Pact 12 team had played and every SEC team had played since the start of the year? I don't know. But SMU is not bad. They can score a lot. The Tulane at plus six and a half. You want to buy that half point to get it to seven.
Starting point is 01:11:12 I'm playing the covers Friday lines. Take Tulane plus the six and a half. Then we've got a late night game tonight, 930 Eastern, between BYU. BYU's undefeated. They were a 34 point favorite over UTSA, University of Texas, San Antonio. last week. And right before the game started, Van Pelt called me, and he said, I really like UTSA. And I'm like, why? BYU's 34 point favorite. He goes, I'm just telling you, I think that game's going to be much closer. And I said, well, it's not based on the way we wager. And he goes,
Starting point is 01:11:45 no, I'm just telling you, I think it's going to be a close game. You can play it or you don't have to play it. So I didn't play it. He did. And BYU, you barely beat UTSA, 37 to 20 as a 34 point favorite. BYU's undefeated their four-and-o. They're playing Houston who's had basically every game with the exception of one canceled by COVID-19. Dana Hulgerson at Houston, they lost the Eric King to Miami, but they're a good team and they are capable of putting up big points. This is going to be a really good defense in BYU's defense against a very good and explosive offensive team. In college football, I will take offense over defense. Houston's getting a perceived short number. The public likes BYU, who's ranked 13th in the country. I'll take Houston plus the five.
Starting point is 01:12:38 Let's go to Saturday, where Arkansas Cooley might be the most shocking turnaround story in college football this year. This team was one of the two or three worst division one major conference teams in America last year. They were horrible last year. Not only did they lose almost every game, they got blown out just every week, and I think I had them a couple of times. Like, they never had a chance in any SEC game. They finished 0 and 8 in the yes SEC. They beat Portland State, I think was the one game that they won last year. They have turned it around because they've been terrible for a few years. They beat Mississippi State the week after Mississippi State. upset LSU.
Starting point is 01:13:24 They were close against Auburn last week, and there was a very controversial call at the end of the game. I don't know if you saw it. The quarterback fumbled in trying to spike to set up the game-winning field goal. The quarterback fumbled the snap, turned backwards and spiked it. So technically it was a backwards pass or a fumble. They ruled it in incomplete, they ruled it intentional grounding, which was a loss of down, but it stopped the clock and they didn't lose possession because there was a clear recovery.
Starting point is 01:13:54 So Arkansas could have easily beaten Auburn last week. And they are playing this week Ole Miss, who scored 48 against Bama last week in a shootout. They're only getting two. I like Arkansas. Duke's playing NC State. NC State's been a surprising team so far this year. They have not been a favorite yet this year, which is why I like Duke, because I don't think NC State can live with sort of the expectations. They beat UVA last week. They beat Pitt.
Starting point is 01:14:26 At the time, Pitt was ranked. They beat Wake Forest early in the year, and I liked Wake in that game. And they're laying a short number to Duke, who is really struggled this year. They're so well-couched, well-coached with Cutcliffe. They did beat Syracuse last week, and they were close against Virginia Tech. I think Duke's better than people think. Take Duke, take Duke plus four and a half. Syracuse is getting a very short number against a good Liberty team. Take Syracuse plus three and a half. Here's one for you. The opener when Mike Leach's first season at Mississippi State began with a game
Starting point is 01:15:03 in Death Valley against LSU. And KJ Costello set every SEC passing record, and they set the yardage record for the SEC in his first game as a coach at Mississippi State. And they won that game over LSU in the opener. It was like, look out, Leach is going to. going to do it at Mississippi State, which would be a reasonable conclusion to come to. Since that win, where they rolled it up over LSU in the opener, Mississippi State has scored 14 points in a loss to Arkansas and two points last week
Starting point is 01:15:39 in a loss to Kentucky. Kentucky beat Mississippi State last week 24 to 2 to 2. KJ Costello in the game, four interceptions. They rushed for 20 yards. Kentucky's underrated, by the way. They're really good on defense. Really good on defense. They were last year, too.
Starting point is 01:16:00 They were. So I'm looking at this, and I'm like, Texas A&M beat Florida last week, and I had A&M as a winner last week, and they're only laying five against Mississippi State, who all of a sudden can't score, take Mississippi State plus the five. North Carolina has a young quarterback that I'm going to want you to watch a little bit at some point this year, because I actually think he looks to me like an NFL quarterback. His name is Sam Howell. I don't think he can come out this year. I think it's next year. I think he is a, I think he's a redshirt sophomore or maybe a legitimate sophomore. I think he's a legitimate sophomore.
Starting point is 01:16:40 Anyway, he can really play. And North Carolina can really score. And Florida State has really sunk to depth. that I don't think anybody thought was possible. Carolina is only laying 14 against 13 and a half against FSU by the half point, but take FSU plus 13 and a half. The big one Saturday night is Georgia and Bama Cooley. I had Stanford Steve on the show this morning on the radio show, and he agreed with me. I've never seen a point spread drop because a coach was out like the Bama Georgia line dropped.
Starting point is 01:17:15 And he basically, Stanford Steve said to me, Well, now you know what Vegas thinks of Nick Saban. The line dropped two, two and a half points when he was diagnosed with COVID-19 and is not going to coach in the game Saturday night against Georgia. It's four right now. I would have rather had it at six, six and a half. But the public likes Bama laying the four. I'll take Georgia plus the four.
Starting point is 01:17:38 Bama's defense is going to get a, you know, it's not been impressive here early. Mack Jones, however, has been very impressive. He's in the Heisman race right now. But I like Georgia plus four. And then I think Virginia Tech's one of the best stories of the season so far in college football. Cooley. They had 23 players out week one, 21 players out in week two, more players out last week, a big mix of injuries and a lot of positive COVID tests.
Starting point is 01:18:07 And they won their first two games against NC State and Duke. And last week in their game against North Carolina, they were down 21-0 at the end of the first quarter. quarter, 35, 14 at halftime, 42 to 17 midway through the third quarter, and they got the game back to 4237 at the end of the third quarter. They ended up losing 56 to 45, but this Virginia Tech team is good. They can run the football, and I like Virginia Tech laying a big number against a BC team that I think is 3 in 1. So take Virginia Tech to bounce back with a big win. and Langna 12th. Let's go to Sunday.
Starting point is 01:18:49 Cooley already, before we started recording the podcast again, pretty much guessed a lot of my picks. The Texans are getting a short number against Tennessee who just pummeled Buffalo. It's three and a half. I'll take the Texans plus three and a half. The public's absolutely convinced that Houston stinks in Tennessee is really good.
Starting point is 01:19:08 So do I. But every bookmaker in America will need the Texans to cover it. What do you think about this game is Houston can't stop the run. Yeah, and Tennessee can run it. Derek Henry's pretty good. The Vikings, who I have really had a good feel for this year when it comes to gambling, I've given them out three consecutive weeks on the smell test, and they've been a winner three consecutive weeks against Tennessee, right?
Starting point is 01:19:40 What are the games? Seattle, I had them against Seattle last week. I had them against Tennessee, and I had them against Houston. The last three weeks, they have covered the number. Three weeks in a row, I've had them in all three games. And this week, I'm going against them. They're laying a short number to Atlanta, who is winless, who is now going to be coached by Rahim Morris, right?
Starting point is 01:20:03 Morris is the head coach, interim head coach, I believe. And the Vikings are not laying a big enough number here. Now, the Atlanta's got the COVID situation, I think, but it doesn't appear to be, it was a non-player, non-coach. The Vikings really are a good, a much better team than their record would indicate. They really should have won last week. They should have beaten Tennessee. I think they could be, I think that loss last week,
Starting point is 01:20:29 maybe the books are considering that loss to be a soul crusher and that maybe they'll go away now because they'll view their opportunity to have a season as over. Atlanta's catching too short of a number here. I'll take the Falcons plus the four. this is tough, and I understand it, and I said it last week, and it didn't work out, and I apologize, but no one is going to bet the New York football jets this week, and it means that every bookie in America will need the jets to cover the 10. Miami just destroyed San Francisco 43 to 17. I'd love to know, and I could look this up, I just didn't, the last time Miami was a 10-point favorite
Starting point is 01:21:12 against anybody. I mean, I'd like to know when they were last a favorite over anybody. It's been a long time since the dolphins were favored in a game. They are favored by 10 over the Jets, and nobody's playing the Jets. So I'll take the Jets plus the 10 on general principle. The Packers are laying one, and they're laying one against Brady and the Buccaneers in the game of the day at 425 on Fox Sunday. I'll take the Buccaneers plus the one at home on the contrarian thing. There's a lot of sharp money on Tampa Bay as well, a ton of sharp money. I got a little information last night that said some of the more feared gamblers in the world are on Tampa Bay Sunday. So I'll take Tampa plus the one. I like the 49ers plus the three and a
Starting point is 01:22:06 half against the Rams after they got absolutely housed last week by Miami and the Rams are rolling along four and one and the 49ers are banged up. I don't even know who they're starting a quarterback. Who are they starting a quarterback? Do you know? I would assume they're starting Bethard. I didn't look that up. Garoppolo's terrible. Would you say? Garopolo is awful. Garopolo is awful. Garopolo is terrible. He's so bad. He really is terrible. By the way, the Georgia number is four and a half, if I didn't give that outright. I like the 49ers plus the three and a half.
Starting point is 01:22:44 And then Monday night, I do as coolly guessed. That game is Monday afternoon, actually. It's weird. I mean, we're going to have some weird scheduled games. The Monday game between the Bills and the Chiefs, one of the best games on paper of the weekend, is Monday at 5 p.m. Eastern. That's what time we're getting the Bills and Chiefs.
Starting point is 01:23:06 5 p.m. Eastern on Monday, followed by the Cowboys and Cardinals. So we've got a doubleheader on Monday night. And I do like the Cowboys a little bit in that game. I do, but I may save that in terms of giving it out until Monday. I want to see what happens with the number because the number opened up, you know, somewhere in the pickum to minus one Arizona range with Dalton. And there's been a lot of sharp action on Arizona, a lot of public action on Arizona. A lot of public action on Arizona, a lot of sharp action on Arizona as well. All right, so recapping here. Tonight, Tulane plus six and a half by the half point, get it to seven. Houston plus five. Tomorrow, Arkansas plus two, Duke plus four and a half, Mississippi State plus five. Florida State plus 13 and a half. Virginia Tech minus 12. And I like Georgia plus four and a half.
Starting point is 01:23:59 Sunday, the Texans plus three and a half, the Falcons plus four, the Jets plus 10, the Bucks plus one, the 49ers plus three and a half, and then Monday night I like the bills plus the five against the Chiefs. The smell test is brought to you by my bookie.ag between the
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Starting point is 01:25:12 By the way, they've got presidential election odds, including some prop bets, which will give you state-by-state stuff. If you're interested in that, go to mybooky.orgie.ag. They're reliable. You'll get paid if you win. I promise you this is a straight-up, you know, fair site. Mybooky.orgie.org, use my promo code, Kevin D. see. All right. Your lock of the week. I forget who your lock of the week. Minnesota last week. Right now are two, two and one. Your lock of the week is two and one. I'm not keeping track of it. Are you sure about that? Okay. So I've won, two, lost two and tied one. Oh, two, and one. Got it. We get to my lock of the week. I'll save you and anybody else some looking up. The last time Miami was favored by 10 points was in 2016 against Cleveland. The year Cleveland went,
Starting point is 01:26:04 one and 15. They won that game 30 to 24 in overtime. Before that, there were seven times they were seven point favorites or more going back to 2012 at no point where they a 10 point favorite. When's the last time they were favored, period? Well, ironically, this is the first time they're favored since Brian Flores has taken over. Yeah, I was going to say there's no chance they were favored in a game last year and they haven't been favored in a game this year yet. I don't think they were. I don't think they've been favored. It's in 2016. Oh, wait a minute. They were favored. They were favored
Starting point is 01:26:39 over Denver a couple of weeks ago. Interesting. Well, I mean, reading this, they were not favored against Denver. It says minus one on coverage. Maybe that line changed as the game went off. Okay. All right. Your lock or locks of the week?
Starting point is 01:26:55 Well, I really liked your Houston at Tennessee game. And I liked it for a couple of reasons. Look, Houston didn't practice for two weeks, and that does catch up to you. But I just can't stop to run. You mean Tennessee had not practiced for two weeks? Yeah, Tennessee had not practiced.
Starting point is 01:27:14 Sorry, excuse me, yes. Tennessee had not practiced, and that's going to catch up to you. But Houston's coming off that first new head coach, interim head coach, emotional game, which I never really liked the second game when a new head coach takes over, which leads me to the perfect situation. Do you have a statistic on that? I don't. I have a feel.
Starting point is 01:27:35 It leads me to the game that I love and what I told you to bet last week, the new head coach game. Rahim Morris is beloved anywhere he goes, and he's good. He's smart, he knows ball, he'll confuse quarterbacks. He's been coaching offense for a couple years.
Starting point is 01:27:55 I think they moved him back to defensive coordinator last year, right? But he had been the receivers coach. So he knows both sides of the ball. he also knows Kirk Cousins very well because he was on that 2012 staff with Mike Shanahan. And it's funny as you watch the emergence of all these head coaches through that staff, Rahe Morris is the one that keeps getting forgotten as a guy that I think will be an exceptional head coach. He would be first on my list to hire as a head coach. You've said that before.
Starting point is 01:28:22 And I know he's been interviewed. He just hasn't gotten that opportunity yet. Well, and I also said, well, wait a minute. No, no, no, no. Wait a minute. He was a head coach in Tampa. And Tampa, right. Bruce Allen with the worst possible situation in Tampa and was never given a chance,
Starting point is 01:28:40 truly in Tampa. Right. So to me, Rahim Morris, and since that point has grown so much, and coach both sides of ball, and I'm just telling you, as a guy that played with him as a coach, he was a defensive backs coach when I was there and was more known by anyone on that team or anyone on our offense than any other defensive coach. he's he's great okay i thought last year Atlanta just promoted him to keep him because and i probably
Starting point is 01:29:07 said this with you because they knew at some point he'd be their head coach they didn't want they did not want to lose him as the head coaching candidate at the end of this year got it so atlanta plus four i'm going to go a little crazy on this one my lock of the week isn't to cover it's the money line Atlanta right now is plus 175 you bet a hundred dollars you win $175. My lock of the week is that the Atlanta Falcons win this game outright. So I remember you used to do this when we did the show together, and I would say, okay, well, then we're keeping a record here.
Starting point is 01:29:41 So what does that mean? I'll just, I'll take Atlanta Plus, but I'm telling you Atlanta's going to win this game. Okay, but what I was going to say, I was going to offer you that if you take them on the money line and you win, you win one and a half, but you only lose one way. So if you win, you're now 3.5, 2 and 1. Let's just take them plus. Okay, we'll take Atlanta plus four. Okay, Atlanta plus four.
Starting point is 01:30:05 That's your lock of the week. Did you have any other games that you liked? I like a lot of the games that you like, Kevin. I really think Houston probably should cover. I like the Jets a ton. I mean, the reason I like the Jets is because Fitzpatrick is dynamic at throwing the ball down the field, but we'll throw picks. Greg Williams will, and my best guess, confused Fitzpatrick with,
Starting point is 01:30:28 multiple cover two looks and I think this game goes under and that the Jets play great defense against Miami and Fitzpatrick. I just, the Jets can't score, but somehow they find a way to cover this ballgame. And then I like Buffalo. The other game I really like is Buffalo plus four and a half. I do too. At home against Kansas City. Buffalo is a good defense and Allen so far has been on an absolute tear until he threw
Starting point is 01:30:54 a couple picks last week. They're in a bounceback situation. They'll play well against the Chiefs. I do like Buffalo. Not my luck of the week, but I like Buffalo. So I gave out the Jets last week plus the seven and a half or whatever it was against the Cardinals. Joe Flacco started that game because Darnold was hurt. I don't even know if Darnold's back this week.
Starting point is 01:31:12 I didn't even look at it. I just knew that this was going to be the – It doesn't matter. It was going to be the biggest need. This will be one of the biggest needs of the weekend for books. They're going to need the Jets to cover in this game. But that Cardinals game was weird because the Jets. actually moved the ball several times. They were stopped on, you know, deep in Arizona
Starting point is 01:31:35 territory on a fourth down play. They had another fourth down that they got stopped on where they tried to run the fullback, you know, and the game ended up 30 to 10. I'm not saying that they should have covered. But the game had more opportunities early on to be a back and forth game. That, as it was proven, was Levyon Bell's last game with the Jets. Frank Gore. their other back there. They have nothing at wide receiver. Do you know who their best wide receiver is? Yeah, James and Crowder.
Starting point is 01:32:06 Jamies and Crowder. Yeah, that's it. I mean, they got nobody to throw the football too. Here's the crazy thing about the Jets this week. I thought that Gaze would be the first coach fired. I just don't think Gays is a good coach. Yeah. He benched Darnold.
Starting point is 01:32:20 Darnold was hurt. Yeah, but he's not playing. Right now, Darnold's willing to wait to return to the New York Jets as a starter. for Sports Illustrated. I mean, maybe he's still hurt. I don't know. Flacco last week, 18 to 33 for 195 yards, one touchdown, no intercede. This will be gazed last week if they don't win this game.
Starting point is 01:32:38 Two coaches have already been fired. The trend's been set for the season. The Jets will not continue with gays, in my opinion. He's not improved Sam Darnold as a quarterback so far. You're making a decision before the trade deadline. Is it gays or is it Darnold? Because if it's gazed, then I'm moving Darnold. And there's no way they're moving Darnold.
Starting point is 01:32:56 so it'll be gays. Did you think about the Eagles at all? I thought about them. What did you say? I did think about the Eagles. They're what, plus seven and a half at home at Baltimore. I like the Eagles because they can stop the run. It's just, and honestly, Wents can make plays against anybody.
Starting point is 01:33:18 I'm not scared of Baltimore's defense with Wens. I'm just scared of Wence diminishing their offensive output because of idiotic plays. but I believe he can make plays. So I see, like, I wouldn't be surprised if Philly could even win this ballgame. I also looked at Carolina. You know, I'm big on Carolina right now. They're favored against the Bears this week. The Bears are four and one.
Starting point is 01:33:41 The Panthers are three and two. Vegas has clearly recognized Carolina as a much better than advertised team, much better coach, too. The Panthers, this is going to be an interesting story. If they beat the Bears, they've got a first. first place showdown next week against the Saints. It is, it's really one of the early season stories that nobody's paying attention to. You know, Bridgewater was one of those guys.
Starting point is 01:34:09 Remember, is he going to get a big deal? Isn't he? He gets the big deal. They love him. I was listening to Matt Ruhl talk about him last night. And he just said, Bridgewater is one of the smartest quarterbacks I've ever been around. He totally gets what we're doing. He totally sees everything pre-snation.
Starting point is 01:34:26 nap. You know, he takes some sacks and he's thrown a couple of picks, but he's also completing like 74% of his passes. They've got Mike Davis, who you know I loved when he was in Seattle. They've been doing this without McCaffrey. I like that team, man. I think Carolina is a really dangerous team. That's a really interesting game. The Bears coming off that Thursday night game and win over the Buccaneers. other game that's really interesting. Real quick. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:34:59 I like Carolina, too. The Bears are just so good on defense and I'm not convinced on Carolina's offense. You got to guess this would be a low scoring game. Yeah, it would be. I'm just not convinced enough that Carolina has the firepower offensively. And Davis has been incredible. The Bears defense is really, really good. Really good.
Starting point is 01:35:20 I mean, you saw that against Tampa. I mean, they have a pass rush. They have guys that they have speed. they have guys that fly around and are intimidators. The other game, too, the Cleveland-Pitsbury game, four-and-one against four-and-oh. I mean, this is, you know, and the last time they played, it was the Miles Garrett game, you know, last year.
Starting point is 01:35:41 I mean, there is bad blood between these two teams. I mean, Pittsburgh, Baltimore is the rivalry in the AFC North. But, man, Pittsburgh and Cleveland, they've got a history with one another. And the last game was that, Actually, it wasn't the last game they played. They played two weeks after that Thursday night game where Miles Garrett got thrown out and got suspended the rest of the year. Pittsburgh can really stop the run and Cleveland can really run the football. So that should be an interesting game.
Starting point is 01:36:10 I looked at Cleveland. Yeah, I looked at Cleveland a little bit and I just, I ended up backing off them a little bit on playing them plus the number. There was, you know, who do you like in the Tampa Green Bay game? I gave out Tamp on the smell test. I like the bucks. I think they're going to win the game. Green Bay is just not giving me any reason to believe. They've covered every spread so far this season.
Starting point is 01:36:40 They're 4-0. Aaron Rogers has been absolutely awesome. They have the ability to run it or pass it. Look, we said this a couple weeks ago. If this spread was minus five Green Bay, it would be a lock that Green Bay. The only thing you're looking at is why is this just minus one? Because the bucks are good and they're good on defense. And they're getting better.
Starting point is 01:37:06 I think Green Bay wins this game. I'm with you on this. I just wouldn't bet. Let's put it this way. I wouldn't bet on that game. By the way, one other quick thing on the Pittsburgh Cleveland game I meant to mention is OBJ could be out. He tested negative for COVID-19, but he's got flu-like symptoms.
Starting point is 01:37:25 So there's a bit of a concern there. we're going to take a break when we come back. We'll give you our Washington Giants picks for Sunday in the Meadowlands. All right, let's finish up with a pick on Sunday's game. Go ahead. Let me hear yours first. This is such a code red game. Honestly, I'd love to say that I think Washington's going to win this game, but I just haven't seen it across the board. and I think that New York has some playmakers in Slayton and Golden Tate and Ingram. And I think that Daniel Jones has the ability to move around and diminish the rush from the Washington defense. If Young and Sweat are outstanding off the edge, it could change things for me.
Starting point is 01:38:18 But I think this ends up looking more like a 17 to 10 game for New York. I like Washington to lose the game too. You like the way I set that up. I like Washington, too, lose the game as well. But you like them to cover? I do like him to cover. I like the Giants 19 to 17 on a Graham Ganoe longfield goal at the gun to win the game. I see a low-scoring game.
Starting point is 01:38:46 Here's what I'm really hoping to see. I've got to be honest with you. We need a competitive season here. There's so many reasons professionally. business-wise, we need Washington to hang in there and have, you know, a chance here over the next couple of weeks. It would be, you know, they beat the Giants and you get the Cowboys next week at home with Andy Dalton. I don't think they're a very good team. I think it's going to be a team that ends up in the top five in the draft next year with four or five wins now. That's my new,
Starting point is 01:39:20 my new prediction on the season. But if they lose to the Giants, I mean, there's just not going to be much interest and it's going to be perceived to be over. I'd love to hope that Kyle Allen is capable of making plays. If not, then we're going to get into, well, are we going to see Alex and nobody wants to see that anymore? Are we going to see Dwayne back? Probably not, but who knows? They change their mind out there so often. I think this is a loss. I think the Giants are a better team. I think they're a better team, period. So I think they've got a better quarterback. I think they've got a better offense. I think they've got a better team all together. And I think they win the game 19 to 17. God, I hope I'm wrong. But I did give you the Washington
Starting point is 01:40:10 plus two and a half cover right there with the 1917 final score. I don't feel good about either the prediction or the point spread prediction either. But anyway, we'll see. Let me ask you a question. Yes. I doubt the Jets would trade for Darnold. But if you could put together a package of Dwayne Plus, what would your plus be for Donald? Well, it's not what my plus would be. What would the Jets require for Darnold?
Starting point is 01:40:43 I'm asking you, what would you put in the plus mark watching? I mean, well, I mean, I'd like to put a plus a one. I mean, plus a one is what they're going to want back for him, don't you think? Absolutely. But I don't know if Darnold's play is dictated to that. There's something about Darnold I like. Yeah. I mean, personally, I'd rather, if you lose this week and next week,
Starting point is 01:41:10 we can talk about trade deadline stuff. Well, here's the reason they can't do plus a one. Because you might get the quarterback you like it to trend in the trail. That's my point. If you did plus a two, it'd be the 34th pick. 35th pick is what it looks like. I don't think they're going to want to win. Would you do Duane plus a two?
Starting point is 01:41:29 Yes, I would. For Darnold, I would. I definitely would. But, you know, I mentioned this to you the other day, I think. You know, it's such a fascinating year because you're going to have teams like the Jets and the Giants and Washington, all of whom have taken quarterbacks recently in the early portion of the first round. They're going to be at the top of the draft board again. Washington's obviously going to be in the market for a quarterback.
Starting point is 01:41:56 Will they be high enough to get Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields or Trey Lance? Or trade up to get any of those players? Yeah, or be in a position to trade up. Would the Giants take a quarterback, number one overall? No. You don't think they take Trevor Lawrence? No. I do.
Starting point is 01:42:16 No chance. You think they'd stick with Daniel Jones over Trevor Lawrence? Absolutely. I guarantee, I don't. He got up the farm to get Daniel Jones two years ago, and he hasn't done anything to tell you that he should can't be the guy. I understand that. But you have a chance to get a guy that really looks like a star.
Starting point is 01:42:35 By the way, real quickly on Trevor Lawrence. That's what they thought of Doran. That's what they're not going to do that. I really, I like Trevor Lawrence. I don't love Trevor Lawrence. I think he's really good. And I love the way he plays in clutch moments because he's a baller. But I think he throws a lot of bad balls when I watch him.
Starting point is 01:42:52 But anyway, I, uh, I think they would personally. But beside that, think about the quarterbacks that could be available next year. What if Atlanta has, you know, the top pick? They're not going to stick with Matt Ryan over Trevor Lawrence, do you think? So Matt Ryan could become available. Matt Stafford, you know, there's talk. He could become available.
Starting point is 01:43:13 Obviously, Dak Prescott's going to be a free agent. I think he'll end up in Dallas. Cam Newton's going to be a free agent. And then you get into the, what if the Jets and the Giants have a chance of Trevor Lawrence and now Sam Darnel? and Daniel Jones. I mean, Donald to me is more attractive, but I don't mind Jones. And then you have just the opportunity in the draft if you're at the top of the draft. So trading at the trade deadline is going to depend on whether or not I think I'm going to be in position to draft, you know,
Starting point is 01:43:43 Fields or Lawrence. I like Fields a lot. I would not hesitate on another Ohio State quarterback just because this one apparently is not going to work out with this group. Did I tell you what the Ohio State message boards apparently have been saying about Justin Fields and Washington. Like there's a hashtag anywhere but Washington for Justin. A friend of mine who
Starting point is 01:44:08 is a big Ohio State fan was telling me that. Ohio State fans are like, please, no more quarterbacks to that franchise. All right. Have a good weekend, everybody. Kooley and I'll be back on Monday to recap the game.
Starting point is 01:44:24 Code Red. It's a Code Red game. We need to come up with something different than Code Red, but I think Code Red is something that everybody understands and remembers. Thank you, Jay Gruden, for that. Thank you. All right. Have a good day. Great weekend, and we're back on Monday.

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