The Kevin Sheehan Show - A Playoff Pick Public Darling

Episode Date: August 2, 2023

Kevin today opened with some Frank, Sonny, and Sam and then talked about how Washington has become a playoff pick public darling for some reason. Then it was Sam Fortier/Washington Post jumping on to ...talk about the first week of Commanders' camp.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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Starting point is 00:00:02 You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheon Show. Here's Kevin. Shotgun. Two blockers back there with Shane Matthews. The ball at the 26-yard line.
Starting point is 00:00:16 They've got across the 20. He's back. Looks left, checks off right, door to the end zone. Got a man. Touchdown. Washington Redskins. Kevin Lockett.
Starting point is 00:00:27 He will keep challenging you. He will keep challenging you. 26 yards. And Clarks and Cuomé Lasseter were covering, but not well enough, a beautifully thrown ball. Yes, it was. Let me tell you what, that was a great catch, too. I mean, he was covered. He fell off and caught the ball.
Starting point is 00:00:51 How about that to start the show today? A little Frank, Sonny, and Sam, you're welcome. What was that you may be asking yourself? Some of you, I think, have figured it out. I will explain why I came into the show with that highlight and what it was. here in about a minute or so. Let me just mention Sam 48 coming up on the show. The last two segments, Sam, who covers the team for the Washington Post,
Starting point is 00:01:17 will talk all defense through the first week of training camp in the next segment. The final segment will be all about the offense during the first week of training camp. And we will also ask Sam a little bit about the stadium. He's done some really good reporting for the post on the RFK site, in particular. The show today is brought to you by the Circa Million and the Circa Survivor pools out in Vegas, which is where I am headed tomorrow morning. The Circa Million guarantees $6 million in prizes, a million dollars to the winner.
Starting point is 00:01:55 You pick five games a week against the spread. At the end of the year, whoever's got the best record wins a million bucks, but there are another five million reasons, good reasons. as in $5 million in guaranteed prizes beyond the million to the winner that will be going on all season long. The circus survivor pool is just like any other survivor pool, but this one will pay out $8 million to the winner or winners. You pick one team straight up, no spread to win each week. If you lose at any point during the year or the team that you pick ties, you're out. But if that team you pick keeps winning, you're in, but you can only.
Starting point is 00:02:36 pick the same team once per season. The Circa Million and Circa Survivor pulls out in Vegas guarantee $14 million in prizes. The entries are $1,000 per. Five entries max in the Circa Million, 10 entries max in the Circa Survivor. No rake. If the entries go above the guarantee,
Starting point is 00:02:59 all the extra money will go to the prize pool. The entries close September 9th. 9th the day before the NFL season opens on September 10th, or at least the first full Sunday of the NFL season. You must register in person at a circus sports book in Nevada. Weekly picks can be made through a proxy from anywhere. So what was that highlight I came into the show with? First of all, how the hell did I find the Frank Sonny and Sam call? I'm not going to tell you how I found the Frank, Sunny, and Sam call.
Starting point is 00:03:38 However, I did, and that highlight was from the last time Washington opened up a season at home in Landover at FedEx Field against the Arizona Cardinals. It was Steve Spurrier's first game as the coach, September 8, 2002, 85. 1,140 the attendance for that game. Beautiful day at FedEx Field. One o'clock kick, opening week of the year. And Spurrier's team led by Shane Matthews, who threw three touchdown passes and for 327 yards. Stephen Davis rushed for over 100 yards as well.
Starting point is 00:04:26 They beat Jake Plummer and the Arizona Cardinals 31 to 20. Washington has owned Arizona at home in particular over the years. Why was I thinking about this? Well, I just started to think about the opener on September 10th against Arizona and how big this opener really is and how it can continue to kind of build on the momentum that we have right now. And I talked a little bit about that, I think on yesterday's show, maybe the day before. But Arizona is coming in here for an opener for the third time in FedEx Field history. By the way, they did open with Arizona in 2018, the Alex Smith first game, the Adrian Peterson first game.
Starting point is 00:05:15 But that was on the road. They have opened with Arizona three times at FedEx Field. That was the second time they opened up with Arizona at FedEx Field. The first time was the first ever game at FedEx Field. That came in the 1997 season. They didn't open with Arizona that year. That was the home opener. They had played two road games against Carolina and Pittsburgh to start that season back in 97.
Starting point is 00:05:45 And then the first ever game at FedEx Field was an overtime game. And Gus Ferrat found Michael Westbrook in the end zone in overtime to beat the Cardinals 19 to 13. I will play that highlight to end the show today. But I was just thinking, man, Arizona, they've kind of owned Arizona at home. Nine and one against Arizona at FedEx Field. All right, nine and one. The only loss was in 1998, a 45 to 42 loss. That was a Trent Green game when they were really playing well at the end of the season.
Starting point is 00:06:23 That is the only time they have lost to the Arizona Cardinals. at FedEx Field. Nine wins, one loss, and the last time they opened a season was that game back in 2002. Man, remember in the moment we thought, I mean, that was, by the way, coming off that preseason where you had Osaka, and Washington was 1-0 in the Steve Spurrier era. The next week, by the way, was a Monday night game in Philadelphia, and they got absolutely blasted. They went from rolling up 442 yards in a week one win over Arizona. And in week two, they had 179 total yards, just 90 through the air. And they lost that game to Philadelphia on
Starting point is 00:07:14 Monday night football, 37 to 7. And then they lost in week three at San Francisco, 20 to 10. And that was the game in which Spurrier afterwards said they didn't play the same people they played in Osaka. Yeah, that's because those people, primarily most of them, had been cut. Spurrier didn't really understand the concept of preseason football versus regular season football. But man, we loved ourselves some coach Spurier. Hey, we wound up five and eleven. Not very good, but there was some worse than us. I guess that's one. positive way to look at it. We weren't the worst team in the league. There it is, the old ball coach. That never gets old. A couple of things to get to before we get
Starting point is 00:08:01 to Sam 48. First of all, rate us and review us if you have a chance. So many of you have done it, and it's much appreciated. For those of you that haven't done it, if you have a moment to rate us and review us on Apple and Spotify, that would be great. Following us is really important as well. The follow button is in the upper right-hand corner on Apple, down the left side on Spotify. Giving us a quick follow and hitting that button is important for us. Rating and reviewing us is important as well. We've got a couple of reviews to read. First of all, five stars from Sean.
Starting point is 00:08:41 Thank you, Sean says, Kevin, your podcast is my go-to DC sports podcast. It is smart, fun, and I love the banter between you and Tom. He said other nice things as well, but I'll cut it off at that. But thank you so much, Sean, for the five stars. And a long review, which was very, very nice. If you're going to write a review, really one to two sentences is all we need. And something, you know, positive, which is 99. percent of what we get. However, every once in a while, we get a review like the one we got from
Starting point is 00:09:24 Patrick in D.C. Patrick gave us two stars out of five. And he writes, sports radio media in D.C. are at least as vexingly bad as the football team. Two examples. The first is, and he mentions a name, which I'm not going to mention because this person is a friend of mine. And he says, Kevin's Friday guest on the podcast, and this person whose name was mentioned, was not a guest on the podcast on Friday. In fact, he hasn't been a guest on the podcast in two years minimum. In fact, I don't even know if he's ever been on the podcast. He's been on the radio show, but that was two or three years ago. I'm not going to mention his name. He's a great guy. He's a good radio show host. He used to work at the station years ago. I'm just not going to mention his name, but it's
Starting point is 00:10:19 to point out, hey, Pat, I think you may have my show confused with somebody else's, but I'm going to read the rest of this anyway. Two examples, and he mentions the guy, the Friday guest, who was utterly annoying and sycophantic, I had to turn him off. And then he writes about Tommy, Lavaro, L-A-R-R-O, is a grating curmudgeon who says, things like look it as he tries to get up to speed real time on whatever Kevin is asking him. And then there's Kevin who issues NBA playoff talk for lacrosse. Seriously, he writes, lacrosse. Shee would do well to cut the show to 30 minutes, target the content to perhaps just sports,
Starting point is 00:11:08 and leave the listener wanting more instead of reaching for the off button. Oh, Patrick in D.C. Quite the review. Again, the person you suggested was sycophantic and annoying has not been on the show in years. And seriously, lacrosse, I think you might have my show confused with somebody else's, although I don't know many shows in town that do a lot of lacrosse talk. The funny thing about when he writes, he issues NBA talk. He doesn't talk NBA playoffs because he wants to talk so much about lacrosse.
Starting point is 00:11:49 I will tell you that we did a lot of NBA playoffs, and I know we did, because I heard from many of you that had a slightly different opinion than Pat did. A lot of you during the months of April, May, and June, thought we were doing too much NBA playoff talk. Look, I loved the NBA playoffs, and I was staying up. until all hours of the night and wanted to come in and talk about it. Tommy didn't, he didn't want to talk about NBA playoffs. Tommy wanted to do more lacrosse, but really didn't have much to say about this sport, nor did I. I actually do like lacrosse. I'm a big fan of lacrosse.
Starting point is 00:12:29 But no, we don't really do much lacrosse on this show. But Pat, a nice try. I think maybe Patrick just wanted me to read this. And if the intent was to troll, congratulations. you succeeded. Rate us and review us. Five stars if you don't mind. And a quick, short one to two sentence review is much appreciated and follow us as well. Did you guys see what Jerry Jones told the Fort Worth Star Telegram? He was talking about his team this year, the Dallas Cowboys. And he said about the Cowboys. He said, we are on our game this upcoming season. and he put the rest of the NFC East on warning, on alert. He wrote or said to the Fort Worth Star Telegram,
Starting point is 00:13:23 the Fort Worth Star Telegram wrote this, quote, I will say that Philadelphia, and if you will, the Giants and Washington team, he can't even say commanders. They need to be on their game because we are. We're going to be on our game, and we will improve over last year. I don't want to dismiss how accomplished Philadelphia is the year that they had last year and where they're starting this year. I don't want to dismiss that. And the Giants definitely have a chance to be better.
Starting point is 00:13:52 And Washington could be really energized. We know why they'll be really energized. So I don't need to handicap it relative to where we'll end up. Just us, we are better. I guess, you know, Philly, the Giant. and Washington need to be on their games. It's funny that he could not say commanders. Very interesting.
Starting point is 00:14:18 No name talk today. I don't have anything to say. Other than that petition by the Native American Guardians Association was up to 50,000. They got to their number and it's going to keep climbing. I mean, come on, we all know. If they actually changed it back to Redskins, they'd have a season ticket waiting list.
Starting point is 00:14:38 They'd also have a lot of associated controversy. All right, that's it on the name. I wanted to mention this to you because this really caught me by surprise. Stanford, Steve actually sent it to me. And it was not MyBooky. MyBooky does have playoff odds. And if you go to MyBooky.ag or MyBooky.com and use my promo code, Kevin D.C., you can secure a first deposit bonus of up to $1,000. And they have as many pre-seesial playoff prop bets as you want, including the following, which is what Stanford Steve sent me a tweet that he found on. And that is the odds on making the playoffs. So one of the prop bets that you can wager at MyBooky is yes or no on making the playoffs. Washington at MyBooky right now
Starting point is 00:15:34 is minus 370 no to make the playoffs. Okay, so that's the favorite. And, plus 280, yes, to make the playoffs. Well, Stanford Steve sent me this tweet from John Ewing, who had numbers from BetMGM. And he wrote, the commanders at plus 375. Now, they're plus 280 at my bookie, are the most bet team to make the NFL playoffs. 99% of money is on Washington to reach the postseason at BetMGM. What? Seriously?
Starting point is 00:16:18 Washington? Let me just make sure that, you know, you guys are following me here. So there are so many prop bets. There's one prop bet at almost every place where you're betting sports. My bookie has it. BetMGM has it. Everybody has it. The odds of making the playoffs are not making the playoffs.
Starting point is 00:16:39 The odds of making the playoffs for Washington at MyBooky is plus 280. The odds that they won't make the playoffs minus 370. So you have to wager $370 to win $100 if you bet no. If you bet yes, they'll make the playoffs. You wager $100 to win $280. So 99% is on yes at bet MGM. That means Washington. is the absolute favorite of the public better on this particular prop bet.
Starting point is 00:17:13 They love Washington at a plus sizable number to make the playoffs. The odds makers don't love Washington to make the playoffs. A lot of these so-called experts don't really love Washington to make the playoffs. I've heard some kind of like Washington to be better than some think, but they're in a division with Philadelphia and Dallas. and the Giants, that really shocked me. I don't, it's not because it's a, look, part of it is the number, it's attractive. And so when you look at this prop bet, you're looking for a team that you believe will make the playoffs.
Starting point is 00:17:53 And it's a plus number and maybe a sizable plus number. Like I'll tell you one that I kind of like a little bit this year. Let me find the Tennessee Titans. where are they there? Okay, it's not as good of a number as I thought it would be. Plus 208, yes, to make the playoffs. I like the Titans this year. I think they're so well-coached. If they're healthy in that division, Jacksonville's a good team. But I think Tennessee, even in the AFC, they'd probably have to make it as a division champion. But anyway, Washington, 99% of the bets at BetMGM are on yes for Washington to make the postseason. Now, that number at BetMGM is a little bit better than the MyBooky number, although I bet you can't get that number anymore.
Starting point is 00:18:46 It's probably right where the MyBooky number is at plus 280. My bookie's got everything you want, guys, for your preseason prop bets. And they've got all of the week one line. Still, by the way, Washington minus five and a half over Arizona in week one with the total at 39 and a half, the lowest total in Vegas. That was surprising to me. I don't, you know, I'm not hearing a lot of, oh, Washington, that's the sleeper playoff pick in the NFC. I don't think of them that way. I think of them as capable of going over the six and a half for sure.
Starting point is 00:19:25 which is their total in Vegas, you know, at my bookie, at pretty much everywhere. I've seen a seven, seven and a half in some spots. But interesting. People are on Washington. Of course, it's the public that's on Washington. And that's something most of you know I don't love. All right.
Starting point is 00:19:48 Up next, Sam Fortier, right after these words from a few of our sponsors. Jumping on with us right now. is Sam Fortier from the Washington Post. He covers the team for the post at Sam, the number four, TR on Twitter. Here we are. We're a week into camp and it's slowly but surely becoming more and more about football and the football team and, you know, a week from tomorrow night, or a week from Friday night, we get our first preseason game. Just give me your overall impressions of the football team here through the first week of camp? Yeah, the normal beat writer caveat supply where it's like,
Starting point is 00:20:38 I don't know, it's only been two days of padded practices, but I would say that the early return or that this defense is looking really good. They are balling. I think that when they put the pads on, you know, the first team offense has had real trouble moving against the first team defense. And I would say that a part of that, I think, is the offense, you know, trying to get it together, being a little. a little discombobulated, but at the same time, I think the defense, particularly in the back end,
Starting point is 00:21:04 you're seeing, you know, year three in the scheme, you're seeing a lot of people, you know, I think it's playing a little bit faster. And so you're, it's just, it looked tight. And I know that obviously their defense has started really slow in the last three years under Jack Del Rio, you know, particularly because of certain personnel moves, whether it's playing Vanne Collins as a safety when he's not a safety or, you know, playing William Jackson. I think that they're pretty optimistic that they could hit the ground running this year. that's going to be different.
Starting point is 00:21:31 So when you just said, you know, year three in the system, I don't know if you meant to say year four, but I made the distinction recently that it's kind of, you know, not year four of Jack Del Rio's system because there have been some changes. We've seen obviously a lot of five-man front. We've seen the, you know, the Buffalo Nickel emerge. We've seen a lot of the zone matching in coverage with more eyes than typical on the quarterback.
Starting point is 00:21:59 And so I'd ask you, is that how you kind of, is that why you said year three rather than year four? No, well, it's funny, I actually meant to say year two because of the zone match. Yeah, right. As you point out, I think the shift really was, you know, last year. And I think that when you talk to players, Tam Curl, Derek Forrest, Benjamin St. James, James, James, those guys who have all been here for a varying length of time, two plus years, they say that, you know, for Cam Curl, he would say this is year four. in Jack Del Rio system because the language, some of the landmarks have been consistent throughout that time. But for me, it's the zone match was a really pretty radical shift. He's played a lot
Starting point is 00:22:40 of quarters coverage since he got here even more so in the last couple of years. So I think that the real principles have stayed the same. But obviously there was a pretty large tweak last year, I think to capitalize on the athleticism of some of those defenders, particularly, you know, like a William Jackson, and James, obviously William Jackson not here anymore. But I think that was the intent behind that switch. And now year two, you're going into it and you're making some subtle tweaks, is from what I understand, what Ron Rivera said, what I've heard from Cam Carroll and Derek Forrest and those guys.
Starting point is 00:23:10 They're making subtle tweaks in how they play certain things and try to tighten certain things up. But Jeremy Reeves told me the other day, what we call is what we call. They feel very confident in their defense, Cam Curl saying you expected to be top five in the league. And Ron Rivera, I think, making the pretty critical distinction that this is not the same bravado that you heard in 2021 when Chase Young and Montez-Swed were talking about
Starting point is 00:23:31 breaking the tandem sack record, which was like 39 sacks. This is for them, for Ron Rivera, he feels more confident in this group executing their grand vision just because of the maturity that they have. Is he right or is that coach-sake? That remains to be seen, but he feels better about it this year. All right, let's talk specifically about some of the things they're doing defensively. And we'll flip it to offense here in a moment. But when they do line up with five defensively,
Starting point is 00:23:58 defensive lineman, five-down defensive lineman. Will the fifth be Phil Mathis most of the time, or do you think it'll be Ridgeway? Yeah, I believe it'll be Phil Mathis most of the time. Early on, when we've seen these five-down defensive linemen fronts, which they call the Cinco package, the Cinco package, that'll be the four first rounders with Federer in the middle. But obviously, when you saw them do it last year, particularly on early downs against those run-heavy teams, like Indianapolis and Atlanta. You saw Ridgeway in the middle. And I think that, you know, Federer and Mathis might have a little more pass rush juice
Starting point is 00:24:34 to him. But Ridgeway, to me, like, that dude can eat double if he can anchor the middle. So to me, there's not a whole bunch of drop off in terms of anchoring against the run between those two guys. So what about Buffalo Nickel? Man, that is one of the best questions of camp because to me, they have so many defensive backs that could get on the field right now. If you go through them, like basically, there's no defensive backfield position that appears set right now.
Starting point is 00:25:03 I think when they open up, I think they're going to have a manual Forbes at one outside corner spots. They're going to have Kendall opposite him, and they're going to have Derek Forrest and Cam Curl as the two statesies. I think those four positions are locked in. But if you start to say, hey, we're going to play a matchup base, we're going to tweak it based on matchups, or we're going to have Cam Curl slide down to the Buffalo, and we're going to have Juan Martin or Percy Butler come in a state. or we want to go with a more traditional nickel, and then it's Benjamin St. Juice or Rashad Wildgoose or Danny Johnson. They have, and I'm sure I'm forgetting someone at this point,
Starting point is 00:25:34 but they have a ton of options when they want to mix and match with the defensive back. Yeah, I don't think you are missing anybody, because those were the names that I had written down, minus Wild Goose. And Ben actually mentioned his name the other day to me. But, yeah, I mean, like when they drafted Kwan Martin, I kind of felt like that was the Bobby McCain, replacement. Like they specifically saw
Starting point is 00:25:59 Bobby McCain and Kwan Martin. Do you agree with that or not? I don't know because I think that Percy Butler could have been the Bobby McCain replaced. I know that they obviously like, I know that they like Percy. Percy can I think play the post a little bit more than Kwan Martin
Starting point is 00:26:16 can. I mean, Kwan Martin played the post a lot when he was at Illinois. Illinois last year, I want to say it was like two-thirds of their snaps or something obscene. They played cover one. and Kwan Martin would bounce back and forth basically between the nickel and that center field safety role. So he can play the post. But I think Percy Butler is a little faster, and I think they would like to see him more in the post.
Starting point is 00:26:36 So, I mean, for me, Kwan Martin was a younger Bobby McCain, yes, but I don't know that he was necessarily seen as a one-to-one. How's Emanuel Forbes look to you in this first week? I'm always wary of preseason overhype, but the dude has just bawled out. I think in every rep that I've seen him. I mean, there are times he gets beat for sure, but the length, the strength, the stickiness. Like the dude, you know, he had a pick-sticks basically the other day where he undercut a route by Terry McCorren and fired out. You know, he saw Sam Howell getting through his reads, I think a little bit late, fired off, grabbed the ball,
Starting point is 00:27:16 and it would have been a pick-stakes had they been, you know, going hard. That was before pads came on. But to me, I was, I was, I still am skeptical of the pick. I get what they're going for. I get the interceptions, the ball skills. And I still am a little worried about the frame. I know what they say about the SEC and he's held up. But there's just not a whole bunch of historical precedent for a guy in Emmanuel's frame.
Starting point is 00:27:41 I don't think he's added a ton of weight. I know they listed him at 173 as opposed to 166, which he was in the combine. Well, he said he said he could get to 173. He said that that, I think it was the exact number that he said he thought he would be at. right and so to me like I still think there's a lot of questions there because there's just not a whole lot of precedent for guys versus the modern NFL playing at such a late weight but like if he stays healthy like it seems to me like he has all the requisite skills all the requisite talent to ascend it and be a really good player and I've asked him the other day you know what are your expectations for zero one and very quickly first thing you said defense for three of the year um let me just preface this uh the remainder of this conversation, and I should have done this at the beginning. Of course, this is training camp. It's a weekend.
Starting point is 00:28:34 As Doc mentioned to me yesterday on the podcast, what are we doing here? And yet Doc, every training camp for as long as I've known him, picks out like three guys that he's absolutely convinced are going to be really good, usually early in camp. We understand that they just started pads and that there's a long time between now and the opener. But we have to, we're talking. about this. And with people like Sam and Ben and the people on the beat, it's also kind of a reflection, and I don't want to speak for you, but it's also a reflection of what you're
Starting point is 00:29:07 hearing from players and coaches about some of the players and some of the fits, et cetera. And so with that, I want to ask you, are you or have you heard that Cody Barton is impressing day by day? I would say yes. I think that I have seen plays where he's fit runs well. He seems to move pretty well. And I think that to my eye, and I am not an NFL scout, but to me, he just seems to move a little bit more fluidly than Cole Holcomb did.
Starting point is 00:29:42 And I think we've talked about this maybe when they signed him, but he is a little bit bigger naturally. And I think that maybe his size is something that they liked about him, whereas Cole had to put on a little bit of weight. I think Cody, at his size, is a more natural, fit at that position. I think that I'm not saying he's going to be an all pro or anything like that, but I do think he could be
Starting point is 00:30:03 the solution there, because I think that obviously we've seen Jack and Ron de-emphasize the linebacker position, and I think that a low-cost guy coming off his rookie deal in Seattle in Cody Barton, I think he could be sort of their typical plug-and-play and delivers a very high floor.
Starting point is 00:30:20 How good do you think this defense will be in 2023? So this is something that I have struggled with because there are arguments that they will be much better, right? And actually, let me preface this by saying last year, by every metric, they were a top 10 defense. Right. Defensive points allowed was 19.2 points per game. That's 10th in the NFL. Advanced metrics suggest they were better.
Starting point is 00:30:47 And so to me, I thought, oh, there are a lot of arguments for them to be better this year because they only had nine interstaffir. which I believe is the fourth fewest in the NFL. They generated some other turnovers, especially on specialties. But, like, the defense was not good at that. And then they went out and they added players who are good at that in terms of the manual for them. But then there's a part of me that's like, no, they could also regress. Because if you don't look at their third down defense, they were the best in the league
Starting point is 00:31:10 by a comfortable margin. Last year, offense has converted only 31.9% of third downs against them. But they weren't forcing teams into, like, particularly long third down. So you have to expect some regression there. They're going to be worse on third down most. likely. But will that even out with the turnovers? I don't know. That said, I think they have the depth. They have the piece. They have the talent, the cohesion. It seems like Cam Carroll told me, and I went out to Muscogee, Oklahoma, to visit him at his hometown, you know, over, right before
Starting point is 00:31:40 the 4th of July, and we're sitting in the fields of his high school stadium, and he's like, look, man, it's different this year. Like, I feel different about this stuff because it's clear roles. It's complimentary skill sets. We used to have. have a lot of players who could play the same position. The Shazer, Everett, Landing, Collins, Bobby McCain, those are all box safeties that can do other things. But they were mostly box safety. It's different now. People have complementary skill sets, and I really think that we're
Starting point is 00:32:07 going to ball out this year. And so that's one voice in many, but like I think that they have the potential to be a top five defense, for real. I do too, and I think, you know, you touched on the third down numbers from last year, and they were the best third down defense in football by a considerable. margins statistically. I think there was like a there's like a three percentage point difference between them and number two. I'm looking at it up right now. I remember
Starting point is 00:32:31 just looking at it recently. But anyway, I can't find it right now. But they were 26th in takeaways. I mean, it was the nine interceptions and the nine fumble recoveries. And, you know, adding an Emmanuel Forbes and hoping that James Davis, and that's kind of a question mark right
Starting point is 00:32:48 now, and then maybe the biggest wild card would be Chase Young, that perhaps they end up increasing that. To me, that's the number that if they can get into the middle portion of the league, if they could increase it to 23, 24 takeaways on the season, you know, if you had that last year, you get that extra win. That's worth an extra win because that's such an influential number.
Starting point is 00:33:15 And so that's where I am. I'm with you too. That's the one thing that's missing is the takeaways. Now, why don't they and why haven't they been a big takeaway team the last two years? I think it's 26th and 24th the last two years. Well, they're really good on defense, but they haven't had the big time game wreckers. And Chase Young is the X factor for me. Do you agree with that?
Starting point is 00:33:45 And if so, what would constitute a bounce back season for Chase Young? I do agree with you that they've missed the game records. And like my brain just goes back to in, when they were playing San Francisco in Arizona during the 2020 COVID year, like Chase Young just makes a difference. He scoops up the fumble and obviously takes to the house. Like they're missing those game changing plays, which like, you know, I think Cam Curl is a really good example of this. Like the floor is very high for him, but he has just, he has not produced over the last two seasons one interception or four. fumble. And so, like, when you miss those flash plays in the NFL, like, you need those. That puts you over the top. But Chase Young, to me, if you can get back on the field, if he can
Starting point is 00:34:30 produce plays like that, if Montez Sweat can finish, that's the big thing that Jack Del Rio and Justinina, the defensive line coach are getting on him about. He needs to finish plays with sacks. It's not enough to generate as much pressure as he has, but he's got to finish there. That's where you saw DeRont Payne make the jump last year. So if those four up front can truly work together and reach their potential, I would argue, for. or maybe the first real time, for the first sustained stretch of their time together, that would elevate the feeling of this defense that much more. And so to me, like, that's a huge, huge key.
Starting point is 00:35:04 I forgot, by the way, that that game was actually in Glendale during 2020. And that year, I mean, he had the big hit in the Cincinnati game that caused the fumble. He had the scoop and score in the San Francisco game. You know, I was talking about this on radio this morning. I think one of the better plays he's made as a pro was in that loss to Denver on Halloween when the game was basically over, but Denver was trying to run the clock out and he stripped Giovante Williams. Or maybe it was Melvin Gordon. I can't remember specifically who was. Just stripped him at the ball at the end and they gave the ball back to the offense with a chance to force overtime.
Starting point is 00:35:45 Those are the kinds of plays, you're right, that have been missing that he can make. Let's just say that we quantify bounce back as making those kinds of plays, you know, a few to several of those kinds of plays, and something in the general neighborhood of like 10 sacks, because that would be 20th in the league last year. Would you bet on him bouncing back this year? That's really tough. And yes, I do not answer the second half your question, last question. But yes, I think double-digit-sac would constitute a bounce back.
Starting point is 00:36:21 I forgive me for buying a little bit of Chase Young stock here, but I do think he's capable of it. The question to me is I think that he can only get there if he is capable of remaining patient and not doing what he did early in 2021 and saying, oh, I haven't gotten a stack yet. I need to force it on this play when actually he needs to contain for that play to work because then the quarterback's out of the pocket and thrown a big strike down field or scrambling for 20, yards. It has Chase Young mentally, emotionally matured to the point where he knows every play is not set up for him to win and he can therefore play his assignment and take the sacks as they
Starting point is 00:37:07 come. Because sacks, I mean, you and I both know they're super variable. Like they happen sometimes because the guy falls into you sometimes because you make an incredible individual move and get that pressure. For me, 10 sacks, if it is coupled with a. sustainable in the scheme level of pressure that would correspond
Starting point is 00:37:26 with that, then I think that that constitutes a bounce back here, but he cannot just pursue the sack total to pursue the sack total. By the way, you don't have to ask for forgiveness to bet
Starting point is 00:37:37 yes on that. I put a Twitter poll out there earlier today, and I'm just looking at it right now, as of the recording of this podcast, we're kind of approaching a thousand votes,
Starting point is 00:37:51 and it's like, like 60-40, yes. Now for me, I want to say yes because I really do want him to have a bounce back year. I want to be right about them because I really wanted them to take him in 2020. I wasn't thinking too because of the hip and to be honest with you, I wasn't even a big Herbert fan at the time. But anyway, the one hesitation I have, and I'm saying this because I want your reaction to it, and that is, I don't know if they would bet on it. I mean, they were willing to listen to offers to trade him in the offseason. It's possible that that call to New England to move up before Pittsburgh moved up was maybe to take Lucas Van Ness had he fall into that spot.
Starting point is 00:38:42 And so that's my one hesitation. He certainly has the physical. ability. Sam, I thought he looked good at the end of last year. I thought that San Francisco game at the end of last year where he chased down, I forget who the running back was, it wasn't McCaffrey, from one side to the other. I thought he looked athletic. If he's confident and athletic, and by the way, like you said, is willing to play within the scheme that they want him to play in, I think it can happen. But I'm hesitant because I think they might be hesitant to bet on it if they had to put big money on it. I think them declining to pick up his option is a hedge again.
Starting point is 00:39:23 Sure. You know, implicitly, but also it's, hey, you know, we want this guy to be motivated. And he knows that if his rookie contract is up and he wants to get paid again, which he obviously does, you know, that's a component too. But I do think this is a subtle hedge. And, hey, if we, if he goes and balls out, he's a true bounce back here, and then we have to pay market value for him, or if we decide to let him walk because Montezette's sweat looks even better
Starting point is 00:39:46 or however they play that, or we can tag him. Like, that was still a, we would pay the premium. And so that to me is them saying, no. And I think that, you know, it's funny, man. And I don't know if you've experienced this as well, but I have tried to think of how to describe Chase Young relationships or his perception among the fan base, because for me, like, I get probably the most angry tweets
Starting point is 00:40:15 So the most angry email about Chase Young, and I don't know if people feel burned or if they feel like he's a bust or what the deal is. But, like, people seem a lot of people, and your poll suggests actually the opposite conclusion. But for me, it just feels like there's a lot of anger and frustration about him in the fan base. And so maybe that's why I'm saying, hey, forgive me, but I'm actually going to buy the stock right here. Yeah, I know. I know what you're saying. And actually, the results of the poll kind of surprised me too so far. I think that there's just this history of kind of being duped and having, you know,
Starting point is 00:40:49 obviously the last time they had the number two overall pick in the draft, it did not work out. And by the way, you know, I don't think Ron Rivera's done a lot to kind of help his overall, the overall perception of him. I mean, he essentially called him out as being immature and undisciplined in 2021. one. And then he put it out there that, you know, which I didn't think it was very smart, that, you know, they weren't going to, you know, that they were contemplating, not picking up the option. And they didn't. So I think that that says something about the way they feel. And I think, you know, look, he's a local in the community, too. I think there's a lot of thoughts beyond just the
Starting point is 00:41:30 football thing on Chase. But there is no denying his physical ability. If he's back to 100%. All right, I want to get to the offense. Let's do that right after these words from a few of our sponsors. We continue with Sam Fortier from the Washington Post, and we spent the first segment talking about their defense so far. Let's talk about their offense. A bigger concern for you, the quarterback situation or the offensive line?
Starting point is 00:42:08 I would say both. But if you force me to pick one, I would probably say the quarterback. back because a lot, I don't think you need an elite offensive line to succeed in the NFL. I don't think everybody needs to be the Eagles. I think if you're average, that, you know, that is overcomeable. And I think that Sam Howell, to me, is going to control a lot of this. Because what we've seen out here for the first, you know, for the first week or so is a guy who is still learning and getting up to speed. on this offense, and particularly a guy
Starting point is 00:42:46 who I think that everybody acknowledges has the physical tool. He can move. He has a great arm. You know, he can do sort of different things, but is he going to be a good processor? Can he get to his ribs on time? Can he make that
Starting point is 00:43:02 mental jump in decision making? Because I know that was one of the big knocks on him coming out from North Carolina. And so to me, if he knows, hey, my offensive line is not going to be very good, like, I think that he can get the ball out quickly. I think that Eric's the enemy is going to be hugely important for him to help the offensive line with formations, with chips, with doubles, with all sorts of offensive schematic things.
Starting point is 00:43:27 And then Sam Howell will have to execute that. So I am not confident in this offensive line being very good this year. I think that, you know, experts and data, I'm actually working on a project with this right now. And I think that they will probably be below average at best. But I just, I still think it will be on Sam Howell to overcome them because, you know, I think we've seen pressure a lot of times is dictated by the quarterback. Stacks are, a lot of people say in the analytics community, a quarterback stack. And I know that's not always true. There are certain times where a guy gets blown by and there's nothing you can do about it.
Starting point is 00:44:04 But schematically, I think Eric the enemy will have the tools to help Sam Howell and it will be on Sam Howell to overcome his surrounding. All right. So do you think he will be able to overcome that? If I were to just take the first week of practice, I would say no. But luckily, they have four or five weeks, you know, left in camp and practice to get ready for the opener. And, like, I think that those will be hugely important reps. And I think that his mobility moving the pocket, rolling him out, I think that, you know, what's impressed me about being out here is he really is good at rolling through his left,
Starting point is 00:44:40 which not a lot of quarterbacks are. But if you're going to ask him to move the pocket, I think he can do it need to drive. direction, and he can improvise, he should be able to improvise enough where he could be, he could be successful. So the early returns are no, but I am optimistic that they will figure stuff out to put him in a better position, and then ultimately more often than not, he will be able to, though, as you can probably tell, I don't have an extremely high degree of confidence in, yes, as the answer. All right, so understood and obviously subject to change is available for everybody because it's one week into camp. But why was your immediate answer no? What's concerning
Starting point is 00:45:21 to you about him? Well, I would say that if you were to, if they were playing game tomorrow, or if what I had seen out here in the first week is all I would see before the opener, I would say no based on that alone. But I do, but I'm saying that it's possible that over the next four weeks that, you know, they get online basically and the answer will be yes. So I think that right now, will he be able to overcome the office one? Yes, is the headline. But what I've seen so far would suggest to me that they have a long way to go is maybe the better phrasing of that answer.
Starting point is 00:45:58 If I can put my words together. Yeah, that's fine. And look, a lot of that is just, you know, it's intuitive because it's a whole new system. And it's a quarterback that hasn't played in the NFL, basically. So it will be a work in progress. I think most people kind of understand that going in. On the offensive line, do you think we are done with personnel moves? I mean, there will be a massive cutdown date at the end of this month or the very beginning of next month.
Starting point is 00:46:29 Is it possible that, you know, they are still going to add pieces to the offensive line? If one comes available on cut down day, I would assume that they would be in strong pursuit, a veteran, perhaps, someone who has a really solid floor. I could see them upgrading. But if there is a substantial change from the first team unit that has been out here in the first week of camp, and just to remind people that is left tackle Charles Leno, left guard has been a split between Sadiq Charles and Chris Paul, center, Nick Gates, right guard, San Cosby, right tackle, Andrew Wiley.
Starting point is 00:47:06 If there is a change in that group, I think it would come internally. I think that, you know, whether Paul or Charles wins the left guard spot, I think that you could see maybe Ricky Stromberg emerge, either at center and Gates moves to guard or Stromberg could play guard. But I think that, like, that is really all the tweaking, barring injury that you're going to get. I imagine that those are your top six linemen going into the year, and then whoever loses the left guard jobs, Charles or Paul, might be the swing. The swing tackle, I think, will be Trent Scott or Cornelius Lucas, the familiar.
Starting point is 00:47:40 face, but I think that their rock-solid top 7-8-9 guys are already here, barring a surprise cut. Who's the fourth wide receiver? McLaurin-Dotson, Curtis Samuel. Diami Brown, did you say? Yeah, Diommy Brown. I think it's, he has impressed me in the first week of camp, and, you know, the obvious comparison is he and Howell played together at North Carolina, so there's already that built-in chemistry. I mean, just there have been several times during, you know, there have been several times during camp where Sam Hall has let it fly in a way that we hadn't seen from previous quarterbacks, whether Taylor was unable to or Carson, you know, was quick to get to the checkdown because of some pressure, and he's made contested catches.
Starting point is 00:48:23 And it really reminds you, like, Demi Brown, I don't think he's had more than like 20 catches in the NFL in his first two years. But if you can get it to him, if you can target him down the field, he still can be a difference maker. And that's not to discount some of these other guys that I think are impressive. Byron Pringle has his looks good. Marcus Camp, I know he's more of a Cam Sim special teams type. He looks solid.
Starting point is 00:48:44 Dax Milne. You know, some of these other guys, I'm not to take away from them, but Diommy Brown, to me, has the highest feeling. And if you're going to have three really, really good starters in their top obvious three, then why not make a stealing play with Diomi? I mean, look, I mean, if you just take the games that he played with Wentz or that one game in particular against the Titans, I mean, if you've got a quarterback that can get it downfield, Diami Brown can outrun people.
Starting point is 00:49:08 I mean, I think they've got a couple of people that can. outrun people. I am very, very high on Jahan Dotson. I know I'm not the only one, but I actually really thought last year at times, this guy eventually is actually going to be a true number one wide out and might even be more of a threat to a defense than Terry McClure. What do you think? That, I think that I am not as bullish on you on because I just don't think we saw him in a true X role last year. He was more in the slot. He did play outside. not to take away from him, but I think that he, he played out of that a lot, but I think most of his production came from the slot. And so I would say, I'm, I haven't seen enough to say yes.
Starting point is 00:49:54 Like, if Perry were to move on or, you know, something were to happen, like I don't know if Jahan is a guy where you can all of a sudden tell him, like Perry, hey, go line up with a line of scrimmage out wide, base their number one corner, and beat him consistently every week. And maybe he grows to that point, maybe he adds some strength, you know, things like that. And it's possible. Don't get me wrong, but I don't think that I am quite as bullish on it as you are at this point. What about Gibson's role as compared to Brian Robinson, Jr.? How do you see it playing out? And do you think that, you know, we've heard Ron talk a lot about, you know, getting into the playmaker's hands, getting it into the playmaker's hands in space, using everybody as a receiver. and yet, you know, there will be some concerns about pass pro.
Starting point is 00:50:45 Tell me about the two running backs and how you see their roles and then whether or not you think that this team could be what they said at one point when the season was over last year. Remember that we want to be, you know, two to one ratio. None of us believe that because no teams are, but more smash mouth as a run team. Well, so there's a couple components to that. The first two role, the first question about the roles of the running backs, Antonio Gibson said that he expects to be a third down J.D. McKissick type back, which if you're looking at the running back market these days is probably not a bad bet for Antonio to make. But if you remember, I mean, J.D. McKissick was not just a two-minute, you know,
Starting point is 00:51:26 he was a much bigger role than a traditional third down, four-minute offense, two-minute offense kind of guy. And so I can imagine that it'll be matchup based. It'll be change-up speeds. It'll be a lot of different things, I think, when you're looking at what those two guys will do. And sort of the complicating factor here is, you know, my impression was Brian Robinson downhill threat, kind of a bell cow at Alabama, especially last year, and Antonio Gibson receiver background, like he's going to be the past catcher. Dude, one of the first, like, one of the big storylines of the first few days of camp was just how impressive Brian Robinson's hands were. He made a couple of just absurd catches. Those were obviously without
Starting point is 00:52:05 pads, but he looks like a dual threat, like a guy who's capable of. doing everything. So do I trust that Antonio, when he says, I'm going to be J.D. McKissing and would be a third down guy? I think that that's maybe a little limiting when you hear that versus what he's actually going to do. And I imagine that they're going to use these guys in a bunch of different ways because this offense, you know, this rushing offense last year, it was successful. It was the engine of the team, but it was really inefficient. And I think that they need to start hitting some more explosive rungs. And if they can, you know, wear them down with Gibson, or excuse me, whether that was Robinson and Gibson, you know, for a carry around
Starting point is 00:52:43 the edge, I think that would help a lot in terms of raising the explosiveness of the rushing attack. Yeah, it is odd to see, you know, the average yards per carry, but also understand that if you watch the Philadelphia game, they rush the ball 50 times and they came and controlled the clock, you know, to the tune of like 40 to 20, I think it was in that game. and there have been a couple of others like that over the last couple of years. All right, so I've got one more football question than I just want to ask you a stadium question, and we'll wrap it up.
Starting point is 00:53:19 Sam's always very generous with his time and is an excellent guest for us. So let's just assume that the defensive conversation that we had, that we're both right, that this is going to be a really good defensive football team. And, you know, if, you know, a guy like Chase Young and a guy like Emmanuel Forbes and Jamie Davis takes the next step and they've got real athleticism and stickiness and Cody Barton has great anticipation ability and they increase their takeaways, et cetera, and they're just, you know, bordering on a top five, you know, true dominant kind of a defense. I'm not talking about Bears 85 or, you know, any of the great defense is the Ravens defense,
Starting point is 00:54:02 but a really good NFL defense. kind of like what the Jets were last year. I thought it was really hard when teams played the Jets. If they had had any kind of offense last year, they would have won 11 or 12 games. I'm convinced of it with how good they were defensively. My question is, long way of getting to, if they're that good defensively,
Starting point is 00:54:23 but once again for a second straight year, they don't have a good offensive line and they don't have good quarterback play. How many games can they win? How many games can they win? win. I would say, I mean, I hate to be, I hate to give your very thoughtful question to sarcastic answer. I don't need it sarcastically, but I would say eight wins, because that is what we have seen from the Ron Rivera era. Like, no matter what happens, no matter what hiccups they hit or whatever off-field distractions they have, the ceiling has been seven to eight wins. And so, you know, whether that's them starting two and six or whatever, something like that, and them making a run at the end of the year, as Ron Rivera teams have done, for the 12 years he's been a head coach. Like to me, if those things are true,
Starting point is 00:55:11 if the offense is not good and the defense is really, really good, I would say the feeling is eight wins. First of all, it wasn't that thoughtful of a question. Thank you, though. I agree with you. And it leads me to this. Like, last year, the offensive line sucked, and the quarterbacking wasn't much better.
Starting point is 00:55:28 And they went eight, eight, and one. You know, the year before that, I know the O-line PFF grade was better, but they still weren't very good at quarterback for the most part. And they were six and six before COVID hit and they were ravaged with injuries. And I agree with you. If they went 8 and 8 and 1 last year with what they had and their defense takes another step and they've got more takeaways, I think they can win 7, 8, 9 games.
Starting point is 00:55:56 And sort of be like, I've made this comparison before, Sam. Those Bill O'Brien Houston Texan teams that went to the playoffs like three or four years out of five, with J.J. Watt and those really good defenses, but they just had nothing at quarterback, right? And they went nine and seven several times, and they were in the postseason, and they won a game or two in the postseason, but they were never a Super Bowl threat. So I could see that from this team if they're that good defensively. But what's interesting about this conversation is it actually kind of results in saying they've done a pretty good job coaching this group, because they've been so limited offensively,
Starting point is 00:56:39 and yet they were hanging around at 6 and 6 before COVID, ravaged the team, and last year they were within a game and a couple of plays of going to the postseason, and they did finish 500. And yet, I don't think they're particularly well-coached, but I don't think they're at the bottom either. But in some ways, given what they've been offensively,
Starting point is 00:57:00 doesn't Ron Rivera deserve some credit for keeping them competitive late into these seasons? I think that the hallmark of Ron Rivera as a coach is that no matter what happens schematically, no matter what happens off the field, obviously there's a laundry list in Washington, but if you remember, there was a Carolina season where his house burned down
Starting point is 00:57:23 with like four weeks to go. Yeah. There was a year that, you know, the center in the preseason guarantee that they were going to go to the Super Bowl and then they sucked, but then they made like, you know, a really strong push the end of the year. Ron Rivera, if,
Starting point is 00:57:36 Nothing else. Luke Keekely once said, he told my colleague, Les Carpenter, like, Ron Rivera had this ability to look you in the face when you're like three and eight. And he's saying, hey, kiddo, if these things break the right way, we're going to the postseason. And once you get into the dance, anything can happen. And Luke Keekelly said, like, there is just, there are so many people whose words, if they said that would fall flat. But for whatever reason, because of the relationships Ron Rivera, Bill, the players,
Starting point is 00:58:02 or whatever, like, that just hits. And he can get people locked in. So if nothing else, I think Ron Rivera deserves a lot of credit for keeping guys engaged, for keeping teams engaged, even when the circumstances seem long, the thing we don't know that he can do other than the year when they went 15 at 1 in Carolina is can he have a team that starts fast, stays on the gas, and gets into the postseason, and then shows how good of a team they are throughout. Yeah, I agree with that, and I would add to that.
Starting point is 00:58:31 And people have been sick of me, and for whatever reason I've just been talking about Ron very recently, just the three years and everything he had to go through in the wake of the ownership change. And not many people may have been able to keep everybody together like he did. And you kind of just described that as well. But I would add to that that you don't get that done with bad character in your locker room. And I think that that's changed significantly since he got here as well. Not to say that some of their best players and their best leaders weren't here already because they were. But it's really hard, you know, at two and six,
Starting point is 00:59:09 if you've got, you know, if you've got bad attitude and bad character in the locker room. And I think that he gets some credit for that too. Look at us. We're going to want to extend Ron Rivera before this interview is over. No, we're not. All right. Sam's been doing a lot of reporting on the stadium front for the post with Megan Flynn and others. So just give me real quickly an update and then your handicapping of where the new
Starting point is 00:59:39 stadium goes as of, you know, early August 2023. So the newest update is that last week, the Republican powerful chairman of the Oversight Committee, which you might know from the way that they've been, you know, intervening in D.C. affairs with a crime bill. James Comer from Kentucky, he introduced a bill that basically would extend and amend the lease at RFK. It would extend it 99 years, and it would amend it so it couldn't just have sports recreation entertainment on that field. It would be, you know, they could do retail and they could do some of the mixed-use development things that NFL owners love to create around their stadiums.
Starting point is 01:00:24 And basically, he introduced that it was bipartisan with Eleanor Holmes Norton, the district's representative, which is a massive deal. And so Congress right now is on August recess. They'll come back in early September. And then there will be a hearing scheduled. And they'll see if they can pass that legislation not only through the House but the Senate. And if they do, that basically says D.C. is officially at the table for these negotiations. And in terms of handicapping where the stadium will be, I think it's just really too early to get into that conversation because, obviously, D.C. has to jump through the hoops of getting that legislation passed.
Starting point is 01:00:59 Maryland is at the table right now. And Governor Westmore, the Democrat who was elected to replace Larry Hogan, he recently, he has talked about, hey, we're going to, we are open to giving taxpayer funds to keep the team in our jurisdiction, to keep them at FedEx 2 or wherever else they might go because the owners have said they don't know exactly where they want to be. They might start with a blank page and really just, you know, have every option on the table again. Virginia is not at the table, and it cannot be at the table anytime soon. because Virginia, if you remember, has to create a stadium authority to finance and oversee the construction of a new stadium. And they can't do that until January, when the next general assembly session starts.
Starting point is 01:01:43 And there are some elections in Virginia this year that can really radically reshape the shape of the general assembly. And if it's very far left or if it's very far right, you know, you might not see them consider this legislation. And I would note particularly that the greatest champion for the commander, the SAS law, state senator, he retired, or he is retiring at the end of this session. And Chap Peterson, he lost his primary. So those are two of the team's biggest champions of Virginia. So the question is not only can this legislation get passed, but who is going to step up, who is going to either find the passion for the team or who is going to take some lobbying dollars
Starting point is 01:02:26 and step up and say like, hey, the commanders should be able to put a stadium here, and I'm going to get this legislation through General Assembly. So that's really- What about Yonkin's influence on that? Yonkin wants it. That's true. I mean, he could get something passed. He could work with the General Assembly to figure that out.
Starting point is 01:02:44 But again, he doesn't know what his General Assembly is going to look like. It could be when Yonkin's a champion. I wouldn't discount that at all. But he has not been publicly championing it. same way the Westmore has. You know, like Glenn Younger says the same thing every time someone asked him about it, which is, you know, his stump line about Virginia should be a great place to raise a family and have a business.
Starting point is 01:03:07 And, yeah, like, if the taxes are right, then we would love a football team. But, like, the question to me is, is can D.C. in Virginia get to the negotiating table. And then if they can, what's the number? The number is always going to be super, super important. And that's a thing that every executive is going to have to make a decision on based on where they think their constituents are at. But like, can they get to the table? What's the number?
Starting point is 01:03:30 Those are the two biggest questions, and then we can start handicapping. All right, but I want you to handicap it now anyway. I want you to give me, I want you to give me because, I mean, you have a hunch, and you've been talking to the key people, you know, with the team and the key people in the three jurisdictions. And that was big news last week, but there's still, you know, hurdles to clear, you know, even with the amended lease at the RFK site to 2199 with the ability to do more than a stadium and add mixed use, et cetera, et cetera. So right now, Maryland, D.C., Virginia, percent chance the stadium lands in each place. Kevin, I can't give you an answer, man.
Starting point is 01:04:14 Here's the thing. To me, this question is, how much is D.C. worth? Like, let's say hypothetically, Muriel Bowser, I don't know this will happen. I actually don't think this will happen. but if Muriel Bowser went to Josh Harris and said, hey, man, I'm going to give you zero tax dollars. We're going to do the Audi Field deal, and we're going to prepare the land horizontally. We're going to get all the infrastructure ready. But you are, you and your group alone are solely responsible for the vertical construction of the actual stadium.
Starting point is 01:04:43 And how much of the ancillary development is going to be yours versus how much it's going to be mine. Like, it's going to be all ours, and we're giving you zero tax dollars the stadium. If she went and said that, what is the number that Maryland or Virginia would have to say for the Harris group to say, yeah, I think we're going to Virginia. We just do not know what the premium of RFK is because obviously I was out at the fan pep rally on, you know, on that Friday after the sale closed and people are chanting RFK and people out here at one point chatted RFK, like it's clear that's what the fans want. But how much of what the fans want can dictate, you know, a difference of a billion dollars or $500 million. I don't know the answer to that
Starting point is 01:05:21 question. And I don't think the executive there do either. And so if I would, were to give you, hey, I think it's 50% of the chance, I think it's 50% chance DCA 25 and 25 Maryland of Virginia. I just don't think that we are at that, at that handicapped. All right. Well, let me get this out of you. The chances of D.C. increased significantly last week, right? Yes. I would say the introduction of that bipartisan legislation is a massive deal. Right. Like that being on the table and James Comer willing to carry in the football, like that's huge. Look, I understand what you're saying. And I talked about this last week. that is hurdle number one.
Starting point is 01:05:58 Hurtle number two is the city just going to provide the land, you know, do the environmental mitigation, give them some infrastructure, do some land prep remediation, that kind of stuff. But that's it. And then the team is responsible for the stadium and for, you know, I mean, private investment's going to be a big part of obviously what goes around the stadium. And then it gets into, you know, if Virginia and, you know, if Virginia and Maryland blow away that portion of the contribution, what do they do? Yeah, I mean, I think everybody understands that. And by the way, the current landscape for that is Nashville and Buffalo,
Starting point is 01:06:40 where taxpayers came to the table in a big way for those two stadiums. D.C., just so everybody's clear, what Sam wrote last week, this is a big deal because it's bipartisan, you know, it's Comer and Bowser, you know, together. It's Eleanor Holmes Norton involved, but you still have people like Mendelsohn and council people that, you know, have to answer to their constituency. And it's one thing to offer up infrastructure and stuff that, you know, typically a city would offer in the development of the stadium. It's quite another than to ask taxpayers, whether it's raising money through bonds or however it would be done to help pay for a portion of the stadium, as well. And that's the part that makes it hard to answer because we don't know that piece of it.
Starting point is 01:07:30 I think I just described it. And two other... Yeah, go ahead. I add the two. You did. You did. No, you did, like, that was a great job. And the two other things I point out is Bowser is facing a really difficult and the city, you know, as well as the city council is facing a really difficult challenge because downtown is obviously kind of hollowed out post-pandemic. The federal workers are not back. And And the other part of this is something that my colleagues and I reported earlier the summer, like monumental sports, which owns the Cavs and the Wizards and some other teams, like they are making noise and the Nats want funds. Those other teams also want funds.
Starting point is 01:08:06 And actually, Charles Allen, the Democrat from Ward 2 on the, excuse me, the Ward 6 on the City Council, he wrote an op-ed in our newspaper yesterday that said, hey, like, we should be prioritizing cap one because that arena downtown is a major economic driver. And so we should value this over RFK. And the other part of this is like Metro is facing a $750 million shortfall. And if DC, Maryland, Virginia can't unite, you know, you could see a real scaling down of the metro activity. And so there's a certain percentage of the population that would be greatly affected by that. So how much with a declining tax revenue, with a bunch of challenges facing the city, where does RFK fall on the priority for that?
Starting point is 01:08:48 I don't know, but that's going to be really difficult questions. The council and the mayor have to answer. Great job, as always. You know how much I always enjoy our conversations on pod or on radio. Hope you're well. We'll do this again maybe before the season starts. Absolutely. Thanks so much, Kevin. Sam's always great. Really enjoy him as a guest and as a conversation on both the radio show and the podcast. All right, so I am heading out of town tomorrow morning, Thursday morning. Going to Vegas for a couple of days.
Starting point is 01:09:21 Going to see Tim Murray, going to see Aaron Oster, the producer of this podcast. They both live in Vegas and work in Vegas. Aaron works at the Circa. Tim does his show from the Circa. So I'm going to stop by there where I will be playing the Circa Million and the Circa Survivor pools. And then I'm going to Wyoming to visit Cooley. Remember when he said last summer, I will come on the podcast. during football season only if you commit to coming to Wyoming next summer.
Starting point is 01:09:55 So we are here, and I'm going to see him. I would have done that anyway because it is beautiful out there where he lives. And I will be back to talk about the couple of days with Cooley. Maybe he'll jump on the podcast next week as well. But let me just mention that I do have shows recorded for tomorrow and Friday. Stanford Steve stopped by Stanford Steve from Scott Van Pelt Show from the Daily Wager from all of the different shows he's involved in. He stopped by the studio today and we recorded an hour together and I'm going to split that up into two shows. The show you'll hear tomorrow is a lot of college football and then the show you'll hear on Friday is a lot of commanders in NFL.
Starting point is 01:10:45 You know, if you don't know this about Steve, he is very well connected with a lot of college football coaches and programs. And the same in the NFL. And he really got into talking about this team here and the league as a whole. So those will be the shows the next two days. And then I will be back on Tuesday, which means more likely than not no show on Monday. All right, I'll leave you with the call from the first ever game at FedEx Field. This is not a Frank Sonny Sam call. This is Dick Stockton.
Starting point is 01:11:24 And I think, although I'm not sure who he was working with. I was going to say Moose Johnston, but I don't know if he was working with Dick Stockton in 1997. But this was the first ever game at FedEx Field. It was week three of that year. They opened up the season against Carolina and Pittsburgh on the road because the NFL wasn't sure the stadium would be done by week one or week two. The stadium wasn't done. I was there that day.
Starting point is 01:11:53 And it was a weird day because for all of us that had spent all of those game days and game nights in RFK Stadium, it was like, you know, there was this huge anticipation for, you know, a much larger stadium and crowd and how loud it would be. And it wasn't as loud. FedEx has never been able to. to keep all of the sound in acoustically like RFK did. But anyway, this was the call from the opener in 1997 against the Cardinals, the home opener against the Cardinals in 1997,
Starting point is 01:12:30 ferrat to Westbrook in overtime. Be back early next week.

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