The Kevin Sheehan Show - A Record NFL Weekend?

Episode Date: October 5, 2018

Kevin kicks off the show by talking about the resurrection of the Patriots on Thursday night. A record number of 50+ point over/unders this weekend? Kevin discusses that. An intriguing NFL Sunday is previewed. Then Kevin turns towards the Caps 7-6 overtime loss with "Smokin" Al Koken. They discuss the first two games, as well as the banner ceremony from Wednesday night. After Al departs, Kevin answers a tweet about Redskins/Saints. Tim Murray then joins to preview Notre Dame/Virginia Tech and Maryland/Michigan, and the rest of the college slate. The show wraps up with Kevin giving out eight Smell Test picks, while talking about some other leans. <p> </p><p>Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices">podcastchoices.com/adchoices</a></p> Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You want it. You need it. It's what everyone's talking about. The Kevin Sheehan Show. Now here's Kevin. I'm here. Aaron's here. This show's presented by Window Nation. If you're in the market for Windows 86690 Nation or Windonation. Tell them I told you to call. You'll save big with Window Nation. By the end of this weekend in particular, more on that coming up. Al Koken is going to join us today. Smell test later than Tim Murray. A good friend will join me. to talk about Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, and some other college games as well. Well, all of the sudden, the Patriots look like the Patriots. And I'm not just saying that. I'm not just saying that because they won the game last night against a banged-up Indianapolis Colt team. I'm saying that because of what they put on the field last night, on offense in particular.

Brady had Edelman back, and he threw to him early, and he threw to him often. seven catches, 57 yards. That made it easier for Gronk, who had six catches for 75 yards, even though one potential catch got knocked out of his hands and was intercepted. Josh Gordon caught Brady's 500th touchdown pass, Philip Dorset and Cordell Patterson are weapons. Brady's a pretty good weapon,

but I haven't even mentioned the fact that James White was their leading receiver catching 10 balls on 14 targets for 77 yards and a touchdown. And then, and then maybe the revelation for the Patriots. Not a revelation if you're a college football fan, and you watched Sony Michelle at Georgia last year. In fact, his game in the semi-final win over Oklahoma was the game that everybody said, oh, no, no, it's not Nick Chubb, it's Sony Michelle. Wait a minute, Michelle is the second best back in the country behind Saquan Barkley.

And in fact, Sony-Michel looks like the real deal. Last night, he rushed for, I think, five and a half yards per carry, over 100 yards in the game. He's now got 210 yards in two games averaging near five yards per carry. He's also a threat out of the backfield as a pass catcher, which they haven't even used him for yet, which is what Georgia did at times last year. And Brady, well, three more touchdowns last night, including his five, 500th career touchdown pass. By the way, he's completing 72% of his passes the last two weeks.

And while he did throw two interceptions last night, neither one of them was his fault. No, not at all. They were drops or hits after catches, perfectly thrown balls or near perfectly thrown balls, that ended up bouncing in the wrong direction into defender's arms. He's eight short of Brett Favre, 39 short of Peyton Manning's all-time mark for touchdown. passes. Drew Breeze is right there on his heels. If you're checking the record books, we know what Breeze can accomplish on Monday night. Breeze can accomplish on Monday night the all-time passing yardage mark in NFL history. He needs 201 yards to break Peyton Manning's mark. He'll get that on Monday night. We were doing the channel for Redskins Showtime recording last night. Clinton was on Zayton.

was on Sherry Burst does a great job hosting the show, and Clinton put the over-under on Breeze setting the mark sometime between late second quarter and early third quarter. It sounds about right. Breeze will set that mark, but Breeze also is just four touchdown passes away from 500 himself. Back to the Patriots for a moment. All of the sudden, Edelmanback, Gordon in the mix, the emergence of Sony Michelle,

they have an S-load of weapons offensively, and they're of, very good team again. Two weeks, by the way, after many were questioning whether or not this would be the year that the Patriots took a major step back. No, it's not going to be this year. Next up for New England, the Chiefs in Foxborough next Sunday. That's going to be fun. And then the following week, the Patriots go to Chicago to face the Bears. The Redskins don't play until Monday night, which is perfect, because there are great games to discuss. us on Sunday. We'll do Redskins beat Saints if and the Redskins prediction for the game. I've got some Redskins discussion coming up a little bit later in this podcast, but the NFL

card this weekend in particular is very intriguing. Let's get to some Friday Football QuickPicks. Everything you need to know for your football weekend. It's Friday Football QuickPix. Yeah, there's some big matchups this weekend, which I will get to in a moment. But let me start by mentioning this. There are five NFL games on Sunday and Monday night that have an over-under number total of 50 or higher. I don't think I have ever seen that, ever. I was looking for some confirmation that this was the first time this has ever happened

on a lot of the gambling sites that I frequent. I bet it has happened because there hasn't been anything that I've found that's been written on this. And now in this day and age, with so much gambling material out there, if this were a record, it probably would have been written about. But I don't remember it. I do not remember five NFL games with an over-under total number of 50 or higher. It's the story of the season. It's just the offenses are going up.

Even this is the first time, I think, with that many. but we're seeing very regularly these 50, which it wasn't in the past. These are the games. Pittsburgh, Atlanta, the total is 58. The Raiders Chargers is 52 and a half. The Redskins Saints, 52 and a half. Lions Packers, 51, and the Rams Seahawks are at 50.5. By the way, another by the way.

There are three more games at 49. So one point short of 50. Bengals, Dolphins, Chiefs, Jags, and last night's game, we're all at 49 as an over-under total. Look, it may not have happened. I think it would have been written about if it were unique. It seems unique to me. I don't remember that happening.

College is a completely different story. There are 15 games every week with totals 50 or higher, and several games with 60 or higher, and usually a few with 70 or higher. higher, as an over under number. But here's the deal. I mean, you know what it's about, and Aaron just mentioned it. It is about what's happened here through the first four weeks of the season. Passing yards, the most in NFL history through four weeks. Passing touchdowns, the most in NFL history through the first four weeks. Same for points scored, completions. Completion

percentage is the highest through four weeks. in NFL history. Listen to this. Through four weeks, 10 quarterbacks in the NFL, nearly a third of the starting quarterbacks in the NFL, are on pace to set their franchise's single season mark for passing yards. So nearly a third of the league's teams are on pace to have new single-season passing yardage records that all say 2018 next to them. Here are some of the incredible numbers that various quarterbacks are in pace for. Because right now, six quarterbacks, I'm sorry, seven quarterbacks are on pace to throw for more than 5,000 yards.

Rathlisberger, goth, cousins, car. Now, Fitzpatrick has an asterisk next to him because James Winston's going to start the next game. Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco, all on pace. to throw for more than 5,000 yards this year. Back to the over-under numbers, because I am geeky this way, especially when it comes to sports betting. The aggregate average of the over-unders this week for the 15 games is 47.6.

That's outrageously high. Remember when that used to be the highest that you would see in a week? Yes, exactly. 47 would be, oh, look at that game, that's a high over under total for the week, 47. That is a reflection of what we have seen in the first four weeks of the season. All right, let's get to the games. Best games of the weekend. There are several of them. The college card is pretty good, not great. The NFL Sunday lineup is very good. I'll get to the college football discussion when Murray joins me a little bit later on.

I want to start with Kansas City hosting Jacksonville. Some might say this is a preview of the AFC championship game. After last night, I don't think it will be. And I think Baltimore will have something to say about it as well, the Patriots and the Ravens. This is, as everyone knows, a matchup between one of the league's most explosive offenses against arguably the league's best defensive team. Leonard Fournette hasn't practiced. T.J. Yeldin, by the way, is hardly a big drop-off.

It's just different styles. but the Jags are going to move the ball against the Chiefs. Kansas City is dead last right now in defense, an overall defense, and they're giving up 5.7 yards per rushing attempt. It's a bad defensive football team right now. So whether it's Fournette or Yeldon, Jacksonville's going to run the ball and run the ball successfully in this game, I believe. There's a ton of yapping going on heading into this game.

Jalen Ramsey made the comment that Tyreek Hill is a kick returner, not a wide receiver. Now, I don't know what you call Tyreek Hill from a positional standpoint, but I call him the most difficult check in the league. That's what he is, no matter what position you think he plays. This game's great on paper. I wish it were in a prime spot, and it's not even going to be the game that's on local television here. You'll have to tune into the Red Zone channel,

or if you've got the NFL ticket, you can watch it. But Baltimore, Cleveland is the CBS 1 o'clock game for obvious reasons, the Ravens' geographic closeness to the D.C. market. I'd rather watch Kansas City Jacksonville at 1 o'clock. You know, Kansas City obviously has the early season MVP on their team in Pat Mahomes. They're not going to win a Super Bowl. I made that statement to Tommy the other day. You cannot even really get to the super bowl.

Super Bowl with that bad of a defense. Now, New Orleans did it, and Indy did it one year, but Indy the year they did it. They had actually gotten players back like Mathis and Freeney late in the season and they became a better defense on their way to that lone Peyton Manning Super Bowl win in Indy. The Chiefs have big games this year, and this is the first of two in a row that will really tell us more about what Kansas City is. Jacksonville Sunday, and as I mentioned New England next week in Foxborough. They also, listen to this, Aaron. They play games against the Rams and the Ravens.

They've already played the Steelers. So Jacksonville's schedule, all right, I'm a Kansas City schedule, had Pittsburgh on it, Jacksonville, New England, the Rams, the Ravens. Can't say they won't be battle tested. No. You know, the gold jacket's already being fitted for Patrick Mahomes through four games. But the chiefs are just three-point favorites. in this one. At home is an undefeated team. I like Jacksonville to win this game. I don't know if it'll be

part of the smell test. You'll have to tune into that. The smell test on the NFL the last three weeks is nine, two and one on my NFL picks. How about Atlanta and Pittsburgh? This is a season make or break game for both teams. The Falcons have, I think, one of the most explosive offenses in the league, but they're one and three. I think they're good. I like, I still, have this feeling about the Falcons that I would be surprised if they're not in playoff contention when we get to the month of December. However, if you start one and four, that's a tough climb back into playoff contention. So this is a huge game for the Falcons. Obviously, it's a big game for the Steelers who are manhandled by Baltimore on Sunday night. That score was

very misleading, 26 to 14. The Steelers were only able to manage 47 yards of total offense in the second half against that Baltimore defense. I think something looks wrong with Pittsburgh. I thought Rathesberger looked terrible the other night. Their defense is clearly struggling. It's more than not having Levion Bell in the lineup. That would obviously be a big difference maker. There's just something not right about the Steelers. They're three-point favorites at home against the Falcons in what is a massive game for both teams maybe this is the get-right game for Pittsburgh against Atlanta's defense that has struggled. Maybe they put up 45 and win a 45-35 game at home.

That's possible. That's the big over-under total on the board at 58. But that's an intriguing game. Can you imagine if the Steelers are sitting there at 1-3-1 and potentially Baltimore and Cincinnati at 4-1 after this weekend? I said before week one around with the Levian-Bel stuff, started. Steelers might be that surprise six and ten team. No one sees coming. I caught a lot of flack for it, but if they lose

this game, that locker room is going to fall apart. There's something wrong about that which you just mentioned. You know, whether it's Antonio Brown, whether it's the Levi-on-Bell issue, Tomlin and the trust in him, Ben doesn't look right. A lot of things, not right in Pittsburgh.

I mean, you may be right. This may be the surprise six-and-10, downward spiral team. Minnesota could be the other one. I'll get to them in a moment. There's a game in the AFC on Sunday between two three and one teams. One of the three and one teams, I think, a lot of you think, are for real, and that is the Bengals. Dalton's got some guys there, Green, Mixen, Ross. Ross has hurt again, though.

They lost Eifert with a broken ankle last week in the game against the Falcons. Boyd's emerged as a big old threat at 6263. The Dolphins, I'm not sure what they are, but I'm pretty sure. sure that if they don't get more offensive snaps in a football game, their three-and-one starts going to go the other way. Listen to this. They had 39 total offensive snaps in a win against Oakland two weeks ago. And last week in the blowout loss against the Patriots, they only snapped it 45 times on offense. Now, why are they three-in-one? They lead the league with nine interceptions. And they've got the third best turnover margin in the league so far through four weeks.

that's why they're three and one. So it is some fools gold there. I think it's a bit fraudulent in Miami. Meant the Bengals are banged up, but they can get to four and one at Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday. They are a six point favorite over the dolphins. Baltimore, three and one. They're at one, two and one, Cleveland. And you can say this all you want, and you can have people mock you for it. But the Browns very easily could be four and oh on the season. If they had a kicker, they would have won their first two games against the Steelers and the Saints. And if they had been on the right call side last week in Oakland, rather than getting completely hosed on a replay overturn on a spot that would have

ended the game late in regulation, they would have beaten the Raiders last week. Meantime, the Ravens, look, that rivalry game against the Steelers on Sunday night was a beatdown, if the score didn't indicate it. Alex Collins fumbled going into the end zone early to make a 21-3. That turned the game around in the first app. But the Ravens defense is one of the best and one of the youngest in the league. The offense is healthy. There are weapons there. This should be a good football game in Cleveland. The Ravens are just a three-point favorite. Sort of fishy. The point spread. That one could be in the smell test. Smell test coming up. The Lions. I don't know what it is about the lines and why I like them so much for the last few years.

I'm just a Matt Stafford fan. And I remember the argument I had with many of you about Stafford. And then when it came to Stafford against Cousins and I said, I would take Stafford over Cousins. That's when all of you said, oh, okay, so you're not completely in the tank for Kirk Cousins. I've just always liked Matt Stafford. And trust me on this one, they're going to be a tough out week in and week out. I believe that. They're a one-point underdog against Green Bay at Ford Field on Sunday.

That reeks. The Packers are 2-1-1-1 in a division right now that is super competitive for a lot of reasons that no one saw coming, like the Chicago Bears at 3-1. The Lions can absolutely win this game. Stafford, his best football over the years has been against division opponents. He's played very well against the Packers. He doesn't have a winning record against the Packers, but he's played well. against the Packers. And Carry on Johnson, who was a guy I singled out before the NFL draft in April

as my second best running back in the draft and the guy that I really wanted the Redskins to take in the second round if he had been available and the reports were from Adam Schefter on draft day that the Redskins were going to take Carry on Johnson, but the Lions took him the pick before the Redskins had the pick in the second round and then the skins traded down and picked Geis. Carry on Johnson so far looks like a star in the making at a position that the Lions just haven't had a star since Barry Sanders. They have to give him more touches. I think that is coming soon. This is a good game in Detroit on Sunday and a big game in the NFC North. The Lions are done with a loss even after five weeks if they fall to 1 and 4 because really the division's strength.

a win, and I think they've got a chance to be a factor. The Packers obviously can make a statement with a road win in the division as well. All right, at 425 on Sunday, Vikings at Eagles. The two teams that played in the NFC championship game, both of these teams through four weeks in the season look totally different. Now, the Eagles may be in hangover mode, and they also are in the mode of working Carson Wentz back into form. So that, I think, there's some reasons there why,

Philadelphia hasn't looked like Philadelphia looked at the end of last year. But the Vikings, my God, what happened to their defense? Everson Griffin being out is a big deal. I get it. But that defense isn't very good right now. And the running game? It doesn't exist. Dalvin Cook is averaging 2.7 yards per carry, and the Vikings have the 32nd ranked rush offense in the NFL. dead last. Now, a lot of this you can put on an offensive line that's not very good right now. The only way the Vikings have a chance right now is throwing the football to their best players,

Diggs and Thielen. That's what they have. They have cousins, Diggs, and Thielen. But this is a different Minnesota team from the team that we saw last year in December and January. And so is Philadelphia right now. And it's a big game for both teams. Bigger for Minnesota. because if they fall the one three and one in that division, they will have fallen back a bunch in that division. Philly's a three-point favorite at home. I like Minnesota's chances to step up and win this game. I have a hunch that Minnesota wins this game at Philadelphia.

That would be huge for the Redskins and the rest of the NFC East. How about the Rams? Will they get tested at Seattle late Sunday after? afternoon. I've got a feeling the answer is yes. That place is going to be fired up. Best home field advantage, certainly one of the two or three best in the league. The Rams have played three straight home games after opening up at Raiders on Monday night. They had the scheduling quirk here of playing three consecutive home games in September. So they're on the road for a big test. The last time they went to Seattle was December, and they won the game.

42 to 7, but it was interesting. That game featured a bunch of turnovers by Seattle, and Jared Goff only threw for 120 yards in a 42 to 7 win. You don't typically see that. You don't typically see a team win a game 42 to 7 in this day and age, and they only threw for 120 yards. In the NFC West, the Cardinals stink, the 49ers are in big trouble without Garoppolo. The Rams look like a lock to win the division. If it's going to be, a competitive division, then Seattle wins on Sunday. They have to get to three and two and have the Rams drop to four and one. The Rams are seven-point favorites. I've just got a feeling that Seattle keeps this one close. Remember what happened in L.A. in this game last year? Not the same

team, obviously, but Seattle came in when the Rams were looking good and wrecked them. And then the payback was the game that I described later on in the year, which by the way, pretty much knocked Seattle out of contention. Sunday night, Dallas at Houston, can the Cowboys get to three and two? Both teams have very good defenses. Dallas is just, I think, two one-dimensional on offense. The Cowboys have a really good defense, a really good pass rush. The problem so far with the Cowboys through four games, just two takeaways.

That really good defense has produced just two takeaways through four games. That's worst in the NFL. Now, I think against Houston, they've got to get a few short fields. to give them a chance to score because Houston's defense is very good. I like Houston in this one on Sunday night. The Cowboys, I think, will drop to two and three. Houston's a three-point favorite.

Very good NFL card on Sunday. It really is. By the way, let's not forget the Monday night game, which we will obviously spend most of Monday discussing Redskins Saints is a good matchup as well. Get to the college stuff with Tim Murray a little bit later. Window Nation is a believer in this podcast and in me. And I want you to believe in them.

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until your new windows are installed. Call 86690 Nation or visitwindonation.com by this Sunday. That's 86690 Nation or windownation.com. All right, let's change topics and talk some caps with Smoking Al Koken, one of my favorites. I mean, you know, I could sit here for about the next 12 minutes and laud you with compliments like so many hosts in town do, but I just want to get right to the meat of it. 13 goals in two games?

Did anybody play any defense last night in a 7-6 overtime loss? No, and I don't know how anybody walks into that locker room and is able to look Braden Holpey in the eye, because they let him out to dry. he made some spectacular days, which is so odd in a game where you give up seven goals and you walk out of there, and you should feel pretty good about your performance. But yeah, you could almost kind of smell this coming. You knew the penguins would be so revved up. And when they jumped out to that early lead.

But that was the beauty of the game is the way the caps just continue to respond. And you get the too late T.J.O.O. She goes to at least get a point. I got to figure they can't be thrilled at their performance, but I think they're pretty happy that they walked out of there with at least a point last night. Yeah, that's what I thought. Let me just say this. I think it's very interesting because you know me and you know I've not ever been a huge hockey guy.

I like the postseason. I love playoff hockey. But in your defense, you don't have the sources nor the resource. No, I don't. To scout school boy ball. But I watched all of the opener. and obviously that was a special event. It did a huge local TV rating for the highest NBC sports, Washington Caps regular season game ever.

I think it did like a 3.8 rating. But last night, now I did the Channel 4 show, but when I got home and I saw the score, I turned it on and watched it right through the third period and the overtime, and it was highly entertaining. But the point you just made was, I think, a really interesting one. I don't know if it's something that's sustainable or if it's something that, reflects something about this team. But, you know, on back-to-back nights and all the emotion of night one, they were probably set up to get blown out last night. And they could have with the

way each of these periods started, but they kept battling back. And they got a point out of it somehow. You know, and I think one of the things we also have to kind of look into is Todd Reardon has been very kind of open about understanding how difficult it is to defend a title and to repeat. And one of the things that is, you know, the things he said he did was he talked to so many coaches, not just in hockey, but in other sports, to try and get a sense of how do you get the team to start the season out after you have a championship? What is the best way? Do you ease him into the season? He decided the best way is to really kind of put the hammer down to a certain degree. So he ran a very intense preseason with a lot

of workouts, a lot of skating. Maybe didn't reflect in some of the games, but to his credit, I think he never really, up until the last game, ever really played his number one lineup. He needed to see kids. He wanted to give everybody a chance, all of those things. But I think this is also one of the ways he's kind of letting them get into the season. Better to have them have what the old slogan, better make mistakes of commission, the whole mission.

You know, let them go out there and, and, you know, and maybe not be strong defensively. But if you're seeing the passion and the intensity and the skating, all those things that sometimes champions just kind of, you know, we'll turn it on what we want to. I can kind of see him letting this go for a little while as long as he's getting the enthusiasm and the passion. Then it's time to maybe tighten up on the defensive end.

I think the return of Michael Kempi will help. And let's also be honest, even though Tom Wilson is typecast as a certain player, he's on the number one penalty killed unit. He's become a really smart and strong defensive player, and that's the element he adds on that, because that's off Ovechkin line, and that was certainly missing last night as well.

So I think all these things are kind of a work in progress, but I'd rather see them with the energy and the excitement as opposed to, okay, we'll pick it up when we decide to. And I want to go back to Wednesday night. What was it like for you? And I mean, I joked at the beginning that I could sit here and talk about how long you've been on the air and been in the market and been a part of the hockey scene here, but you really have. You've been a part of the Caps community longer than anybody in this town.

What was it like for you? You know, it was just a remembrance of what it was like in June. The thing that continues to stand out to me, and if I'm just looking at this from a personal level, I walked out of there again the other night with such an appreciation of how wonderful these fans are, how wonderful they've treated me, Joe B, Locker, Alan May, all the people who have been involved in this. It's just, I'm overwhelmed sometimes, standing on that street. I was working the red carpet for NBC Sports Wash and having fun doing that.

And you're just, you're walking up and down, and there are people, you know, screaming, hey, smoking out, can you sign this? Can you come over? Can I take a selfie? And it's an honor. It's a privilege. It's a pleasure. And the reminder of what this was all about. that when you looked at that crowd, it was every age group, it was every gender, it was every ethnicity,

it was Washington, D.C. and the unbridled joy that everybody was having. I mean, Kevin, think about this, there hasn't been a single report of a single idiot incident, some knucklehead who got drunk and decided to light something on fire or put out trash can throw away. None of that that we've heard in other cities celebrating. It's just been pure unbridled joy. And that was another reminder of it on the other night that you had that sense again of a city embracing a championship, but having fun for all the right reasons. Not a sense of privilege, not a sense of, oh, you know, it's about time. This was just joy. And I'll always carry that with me from the celebration in the parade in June to what we saw again last night, just the thrill of everybody having a great time and bonding as a Washington sports fan slash capitals fan. All right, let me get to the one nitpick from Wednesday night, which, by the way, I really thought was so well done.

I thought John Walton did a great job. I thought Ted did a really good job. And the thing that was missing and sort of conspicuous by the absence was no mention nothing about Barry Trots. Why not? How much bad blood is there that there wasn't any sort of acknowledgement? I'll be honest with it. That really took me by surprise. I did not think. that that was ever going to be a situation. You know, it was almost like they'd gone to Ovechkin and Kuznetsov and say, now, remind me how they do it in Russia when they want to wipe out the memory of Stalin and Gorbachev and Lennett. You know, it was like, I was stunned by that, to be perfectly honest with you, because I didn't think the parting was that acrimonious. I know

there was a disagreement, and I know there was one side of it, the capital side who said, listen, we want to give you a raise, but we're not going to go five years at $5 million, particularly since you have a contract, a valid contract that you signed, that doesn't even come close to that. We may not be, you know, we may not hold you to the low money and only, you know, a couple of additional years, but we can't go what you're asking for. And I thought both sides kind of had a realistic view of it and said, okay, time to move on. I didn't see a point to where you would truly, truly almost wipe out any memory of him and not mention him, not show him in videos, all of that stuff. That did surprise me.

And maybe I'd gauge this wrong. Maybe I didn't feel what I, maybe what I felt about the lack of animosity. Maybe there's more to it because I never got that sense during the whole time when he left. And then they interviewed and introduced Todd Reardon. I just got a sense that it was more of a, it was time to move on. beneficial for both sides, as opposed to, man, we had to get him out of here. I agree with you. That was surprising and disappointing. All right. Your thoughts on the 20-game suspension for Wilson?

Kevin, I'm liking this to a little bit of what's going on in the National Football League. I think we all know when you truly have an intent to injure somebody, whether it was with the crown of your helmet or whether it's getting a quarterback and lifting him off the ground and planting him into the ground. And I think we all know what is still in a contact sport, unallowable hit. Now, it's difficult when everything is always referenced to point of contact as the head because that then wipes out any sense of, well, did he intend to do it? Did he try an injure him?

Did he put himself in a position where he said, okay, I'm going to raise my arm or lower my shoulder or drive in and make sure I hit him in his head, or am I a 6'4 player trying to hit a player who's got his head down after just split second giving up the puck, which is still allowed in hockey, and it's Tom Wilson. I was of the opinion it was going to be in that 8 to 10 range, and I thought if they really wanted to make a statement,

it was going to be 12. I was very surprised that it became 20, because it still is in many other instances a legal hit if it was done by any other player. You know Scott Stevens. You remember Scott Stevens here in Washington. Scott Stevens is in the Hall of Fame. If Scott Stevens, who had those type of hits constantly as a capital, as a blue, and then ultimately that led him to the Hockey Hall of Fame as a New Jersey Devil,

he wouldn't be in the Hockey Hall of Fame if things were being called that way, the way it seems to be called today. I know Tom Wilson is a victim of some of his own mistakes. You don't need to be throwing that type of hit in the last preseason game in the second period against a kid who's not going to be on the Blues opening day roster. That being said, in many regards, if you break it down legally, it wasn't a predatory hit. And I think Tom Wilson's resume had a lot to do with it and also the fact that it's at the very beginning of the year and he probably became the perfect poster boy for the league trying to make.

a statement. I'm not as offended, but I'm also offended that Brad Marshawn's little vigilante justice thing against Lars Eller was acting like, you know, if that's just hockey, okay, it's just boys being boys, it's the old code. Well, if it's still allowed, then Tom Wilson's hit in many regards should still be allowed. And they've got to make a difference between when you know he's trying to injure somebody and when a big dude just happens to get somebody and ultimately injure somebody. Do you think it gets reduced upon appeal? I think the fact that it was 20 gives them room to knock it down to maybe 16 or so, something like that, which would still be a hell of a statement.

It's still, you know, it's still going to cost a million dollars no matter how you slice it. One more, and I'll let you run. How good is Kuznetsoff? Where right now does he rank among the best players in the NHL? He's got to be among the top. I saw something on SportsNet Canada on their website, which is a great read. There's a guy named Elliot Freeman who does this 31 Thoughts column weekly. It's a terrific read because it covers the whole league.

They ranked for the last three years. They ranked the top 20 centers in the national hockey league. They use mostly analytics and a lot of statistical analysis on that. And the capitals had both Nick Baxter and the beginning because Nets off in the top 20, which you think about for 20 centers in a 31 team league. That's a pretty valuable thing to have. Everybody who's asked me about, can the capitals repeat? One of the things I've always included in my analysis is, yeah, it's going to be difficult to have all the stars aligned the way they did last year.

But there's more you can get out of guys like Jacob Verona, Andro O'Marikoski, and right at the top of the list, you've getting his nets up. I think we've only kind of scratched the surface about how great he could be. Last year, he added goals to his game as the season went on. He's a brilliant playmaker. He's asked to now kill penalties. He needs to improve on his faceoffs. But when you watch a guy who wants to get better and add things to his game and he's got the talent to do it, he's still extremely young. And I'm really looking at him as to be kind of like an X factor on how do you repeat?

Well, you get not just the same from everybody. You get more from certain people. And I'm looking for more if he McKinick his nets up. This guy is on the cusp of being one of the absolute top in the national hockey. You know your hockey. I'll give you that. Thank you. Just like you know your weather, my friend.

Thanks so much, Al. I appreciate it. I'll talk to you soon. And congratulations on the podcast. It's a great listen, and I'm happy and continued success. Thanks so much. I appreciate it. I'll talk to you soon.

You got it, Matt. Al Cokin, everybody. Tim Murray is going to join me in a moment. We'll talk some college football, including Terps, Michigan, tomorrow in and Ann Arbor got this tweet yesterday from Fred on Twitter. Biggest game in years, Kevin? Come on. Too much.

Too much hype. Exclamation point. So yesterday I made the comment to Tommy that I think that Monday night's game, I didn't say it was the biggest game in years. The Redskins have had bigger games in terms of importance, including the game to win the division, the game to try to get into the playoffs and several others. Personally, I think the biggest game,

game we've seen in the Jay Gruden era, the biggest opportunity was the Dallas Thanksgiving game in 2016. That felt like the biggest game the Redskins had played in a long time. Both teams had great records. Thanksgiving Day, the whole thing. What I was saying yesterday is this, that Monday night's game is actually similar to last year's Monday night week four. It was week four last year. This is week five, technically the Redskins fourth game. The one they played in Arrowhead last year was sort of a measuring stick game. The Chiefs were undefeated at the time. The Redskins were two and one coming off one of their more impressive wins in many years,

pummeling the Raiders on Sunday night football. And we had a sense that the Redskins were going to be a pretty good team, but we needed to see it against the Chiefs. And we did see it against the Chiefs that particular Monday night at Arrowhead. We saw a defense that played with a ton of energy and looked significant. improved from where it had been in previous years. We saw an offense that moved the ball up and down the field at times and had the game right there on Josh Doxon's fingertips in the end zone with less than a minute to go to win

the game. Now, what happened after that measuring stick game a year ago is that they had, they were ravaged by injuries to the point where they ended up being the most injured team in the NFL last year, and they just couldn't overcome that. They weren't good enough to overcome that, and they finished 7 and 9. That was really, before that, it would be hard to find a September or October measuring stick kind of a game like the one last year, which is why I said other than last year's game at Arrowhead, I think this one Monday night in New Orleans is huge. The Redskins are 2 in 1.

They're playing one of the best offensive teams in the league with a defense that most of us think, is not only significantly improved, but is better than the offense, and will be the reason more than the offense will be if they go and end up having a good season. Well, the defense didn't really have a test in Arizona. They gave up 370-yard-plus drives against Indy, and they played a Packer team where Aaron Rogers was hobbled, and receivers dropped balls all over the field that could have been the difference in the game. Now they're playing Drew Breeze and Kamara and Michael Thomas and company in the Superdome

on a night where Drew Breeze has a chance to break the all-time NFL passing yardage mark. This is a huge test for the Redskins defense. We're going to learn a lot. It's going to be a signal of what the rest of the year can be. If they're competitive defensively against the Saints offense and we see the defense that we think we might be on the verge of having here, I don't know if it's this year or next, but it's coming. It's talented.

It's young. And it's good where it needs to be good. And that is up front. Has it arrived? Is it already here? Can it already carry this team to nine or ten wins? We're going to find that out Monday night. We're also going to find out offensively if against bad defensive teams or subparred

defensive teams, if it can have its way. offensively. So far, the offense has been real hit and miss. The Cardinals, you almost have to discount that game entirely. They were not ready for the regular season to begin. The Colts, it was ugly. The Packers, for a half, as good as they've looked. Can they do that against a Saints defense that is vulnerable? Has a couple of players on it, but is vulnerable. If we don't see the offense move the ball up and down the field with Jay Gruden's design, and schemes like they have against the Saints in recent years, that's going to be a bit of a red flag about what this team is offensively.

So I think Monday night is a huge signal game. It's going to signal the way they play more than even the result will give us an indication, a clear-cut indication in early October as to whether or not this team is a 9-10-win type of team that can contend for a playoff spot or is more in the seven to eight win area and not a playoff type team in the NFC. I think that that's what we get on Monday night. Look, I could be wrong and they could get blown out 3810 and then come back and beat the Panthers and get on a roll here in midseason. But I think we're going to see what we want to

see from the defense. Is it ready now to be a real sort of carrying force for this team. Because I think if they are to be a playoff team this year, it's because this defense ends up being ranked in the top 10, not just in yards allowed, but third down defense, takeaways, sacks, et cetera. Big play type of defense as well, which we haven't necessarily seen yet.

But anyway, those are my thoughts on Monday night. A lot more, a lot more, obviously on Monday, when we'll do skins beat Saints if and everything else having to do with that game, including predictions on who wins the game. I will tell you right now my hunch is that this is going to be a competitive game. It's going to be a game that Redskins have a chance to win, despite it being on a night where there will be a ton of sort of pomp and circumstance around Drew Breeze and the record that he is on the verge of breaking. Let me tell you about Ferris, Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep in Fairfax. I've been friends with Ralph Perkins for over a decade. Ralph and Kevin

Farish supported all of the shows that I was involved in on 980 for 11 years. Ralph's one of my favorite people, and Ferris and their dealership is my favorite in the entire area. If you've been thinking about something new, a Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, any Jeep, Jeep, Jeep, a minivan, a Dodge, Eisler Town and Country minivan. If you've got a family, if you've been thinking about any of that stuff, about something new, get out to Farish now. If you like this show and you're thinking about something new, I give you my word that you will be thrilled if you go out to Farish and Fairfax. And if you do that, ask for Ralph Perkins. He's in the store six and a half days at a seven. It would be a miracle if you showed up at Ferris and Ralph wasn't there. Ask for Ralph. Tell him you

wanted to meet Ralph because you've heard me talk about Ralph and he will set you up with their best salesperson. They've got plenty of inventory, great deals right now, any Jeep right now, you're going to save big. They're located right there in Fairfax Circle. Again, ask for Ralph Perkins. You can also find out everything you need to know about Farish, including live inventory and pricing by going to ferrishcars.com. Let's get to some college football discussion. I mentioned the NFL card on Sunday, and there are a lot of intriguing games on Sunday, and certainly the Redskins Saints game is an intriguing NFL matchup as well. But the college board has some big games, some impactful games,

and we bring in our good friend Tim Murray, who is what I call in my world my favorite college football discussion whenever we have it, because you're the only one at 980 that loved college football like I did, and you and I would sit for hours in my office or in the studio and just talk about it. And we always said, you know, if we ever have time to do this, we'll have a lot more conversations on Friday about college football. I want you to pub your podcast real quickly before we get to Virginia Tech Notre Dame. Yeah, it's me, Scott Lynn and Steve Solomon. Patreon.com backslash Lynn Murray-Sally.

And if you follow any of us on Twitter, I'll just give out my handle at 1, Tim Murray. that's where you can find it. And then I also will put out a Friday pick, a Friday Pickham type of podcast, which should be up shortly too. So if you enjoy college football and I've been, I don't know how you've been, Kevin, I've been absolutely horrendous this year with picks. It has been a bad start of the year. But I'm going to stick with it because it's worked out quite well in recent years.

I am without the NFL this year. I'm on fire in the NFL. The smell test is 9, 2, and 1 in the NFL the last three weeks. But you're right. It's been a rough go of it in college. But we know how that turns, and I think it's going to turn this weekend. I want to start with your favorite team, the Fighting Irish. They have a game in Blacksburg Saturday night.

I think it's the game that stands between Notre Dame and an undefeated season and a potential playoff season. Do you agree and just tell me what you think about the game and whether or not the Hokies have a chance to upset Notre Dame? Dame on Saturday night. There's a lot of things that just kind of dissecting that sentence. You know, some people, to start with the undefeated discussion, and some, I've heard talk this week is, you know, if Notre Dame goes undefeated, are they in? Of course they're in. There's no debate. Do you know how many teams in the Power Five have gone undefeated in the playoff era?

Four, total. And there's been no more than one every single year. So the thought there's going to be five undefeated teams. We do this every year, that there's going to be five undefeated teams. It's just absolutely. I completely agree with you. But do you also agree that this is, look, Florida State's not Florida State. Syracuse appears to be better. Oh, whoa, no, go.

But SC at the end of the year, even though it is in Los Angeles, this is the game that right now, based on the way Notre Dame's played the last two weeks with a new starting quarterback, this is the one that looks like it's loseable more than the rest of them. I agree. I do think that USC is going to be very good for that final game. J.T. Daniels, you know, freshman quarterback. They're just learning things. So I think that'll be challenging.

Syracuse could be annoying on a neutral field in New York City in late November. But yes, when you look at the schedule, this is the biggest stub their toe type of spot. And I actually, before we kind of get into the game, I do think Notre Dame loses here because it's college football. and this week has been a week of people anointing Notre Dame as a playoff team. And I think they're very good, Kevin. I mean, you've watched them in the past two weeks. Ian Book brings another level to this offense. And they have become a balanced offense.

But one big thing going into this game that is being talked about, but I don't think it's being talked about enough, is that Notre Dame lost a captain and a quality guard in Alex Barr. And, you know, last year, the reason Notre Dame was able to get off to such a great start was because of their line play. And they were able to establish the runs. So you're going on the road against what is right now a top five run defense in the country. And you're without your starting left guard in Alex Barr's and you're bringing in a senior, but he's a senior who hasn't played a ton and had much starting experience in Trevor Ruland.

So I think that it could be a big issue. Ian Book has basically been flawless since coming in as the starter. but he's never been in an environment like what he's going to see Saturday night. I mean, Saturday night is going to be absolutely bananas at Lane Stadium. And, you know, what Miami did last year, bringing back Ed Reed and Clinton Portis, kind of what Virginia Tech is doing on Saturday night. They're honoring Frank Beamer. They're unveiling a statue.

So this place is going to be wild on Saturday night. It would have been so much better had Virginia Tech beat an Old Dominion, and you had two undefeateds on Saturday night in Blacksburg for a night game. But Virginia Tech, you just mentioned it. I think it's one of those games that we're going to know early. And how we're going to know is whether or not on Notre Dame's first offensive possession, they can run the football. You know, if they're running the football, I think it's a good sign.

If they're getting stuffed and they're punting early, it's a bad sign. Go ahead. And for Notre Dame, you know, their defense, I've been very impressed by their defense this year. They have some pros on that defensive line. It's actually pretty deep. Their secondary is good. It's not great.

So, I mean, they have athletes, and that's what Brian Kelly's been able to do, is they do have athletes on this line. And, you know, you look at the schedule so far this year, Kevin, and if you haven't watched these games, you'd say, well, they've been tested. They've had close games. But in every single game this year, they've led early and held on.

Michigan, they dominated that game, even though it ended up being a seven-point game. Ball State, they were up big and held on. Vanderbilt, they led 16 to 3 and held on. And then Wake Forest and Stanford, they were up early and then were able to increase that lead as the game goes on. So what happens if this Virginia Tech offense comes out, scores a touchdown, Notre Dame turns the ball over, it's 14-0. On the road, that place is going to be as loud as any stadium in the country. So I don't know how Notre Dame this team will.

respond to adversity. We haven't seen them really face a ton of adversity so far, and when you've got a quarterback making his fourth career start, and Ian Book, that is a big questionary, because he's never really been in an environment like this. Let's go to Maryland, Michigan. By the way, Notre Dame's a seven-point favorite. Smell test coming up. What do you think of that line, by the way? I mean, it started at two and a half, which was stinky, and then it went to seven. Yeah, I don't like the game, because there's just too much sharp money on Notre Dame. And my, my sort of immediate reaction was, it's the underdog at home

on a Saturday night in Blacksburg. But there's too much sharp money on Notre Dame to get me to play Virginia Tech, even at plus seven. But I'm looking forward to watching that game. Now, Maryland and Michigan play at noon in Ann Arbor. Michigan's defense is spectacular. Offensively, though, they're not very good. This is another one. Maryland so far, when they have been manhandled up front like they were against Temple, Temple's got some speed on defense, and they can't run the football and be balanced, then Kasim Hill is going to struggle. Right now, Kasim Hill is not at a point in his college football quarterbacking career where you can strap it to his back and tell him to throw it 40 times and they can score 35, 40 points. he has to be in a balanced attack. Maryland's got to stay balanced to be effective offensively.

And I think that this is where it falls apart for them Saturday in Ann Arbor. I don't think they're going to be able to run the football against Michigan, and that's going to be a massive problem. Now, the line is 17 and a half, Tim. Michigan struggles to score a little bit too. I mean, they could have easily lost. They were down 17-7 against a very average this year Northwestern team. they're struggling to score too, but I just can't see Maryland staying balanced enough to keep

the football and score enough to win this game. What do you think? Well, I think the one positive for Maryland is look at the schedule right now from Michigan. And remember, these are college kids. They're not props. And they know what Maryland, even though Maryland did beat Texas, and I'm sure Jim Harbaugh is just preaching that. and, you know, we cannot overlook anybody. But the fact of the matter is Michigan is in the top 15, and the following week they host Wisconsin under the lights. I mean, that's going to be an incredible game.

And that's followed up by a trip to East Lansing, followed up by two weeks later they host Penn State. So they are about to embark on the most difficult part of their schedule with three top 25 teams after Maryland. So that's my only positive for Maryland, is that, you know, maybe Michigan is overlooking them, and if Maryland comes out and kind of punches them in the nose like they did to Texas, that's a good thing there for Maryland.

But, you know, defense is rarely, in my opinion, especially defensive lines, just don't show up. And this kid Vinovich is an absolute stud. I mean, everyone talks about Rishan Gary, and he's really good. It might be a top five, top 10 pick when it's all said and done. But this dude, I think he's got something like 10 and a half tackles for loss already, and he could wreak some havoc coming off the edge. So, yeah, I don't really like Maryland in this spot.

I still think Maryland has got a, you know, a pretty good situation moving forward, getting to a bowl game. And that's, you know, I think you'd be happy with that, especially with Rutgers the following week at home. But, yeah, I like Michigan in this spot, especially. I just feel like I was surprised that they played so poorly against Northwestern. Yes, I agree that their defense or their offenses isn't very good. But I felt like post-Nodername, it kind of lit a fuse under them, and then maybe they'd start to get on a roll.

So I was surprised about Northwestern, but they came back. So, yeah, I think Maryland loses. I'm just curious about the start of this game. You know, noon games, they're a little sleepy. Yeah, and you just- Maryland come out ready to go. And I want to bring Aaron in here, because Aaron covers Maryland. You know, Tim just laid out what's ahead for Michigan, and it's the noon start.

I just don't see them having a chance to move the foot. football. What do you think? Here's going to be one of the really interesting things. Michigan has trouble with running quarterbacks. I'm interested to see if they use Piggum a lot in this game. If they do, I agree with you. Overall, they're going to have a hard time running it. That would be the one chance I see of them jumping out early, as if they mix in Piggum a lot. Piggy's really not played that much. I mean, remember, before that Texas game, I really felt like he was going to get a bunch of series during these games, but they've got a lot of trust in Cassim Hill. but the one thing that's obvious is you cannot drop Kassim Hill back and just tell them to throw the football.

That's not going to work. It's quick throws, let your playmakers make plays, but really for them, they've got to be balanced. I'm beating that dead horse, but watching Maryland through these first, you know, several games, if they're not running the football, it's a major problem offensively. Tim, the SEC right now. Bama, LSU, Auburn, in the West, Georgia, Kentucky, Florida. in the east. How about this stretch for LSU? They're at the swamp tomorrow. Trust me, that will more likely than not be in the smell test, which is coming up here shortly.

They play Georgian next week in Death Valley. Then they've got Mississippi State and Alabama in Death Valley. What a brutal schedule for LSU who I, in watching LSU this year, I'm giving some props to because I think finally they've got an OC and and a quarterback that can actually throw the football against teams that you can throw the football against. This is a big, big SEC tilt tomorrow in the swamp. I don't think people know how good Florida's defense is. It's really good.

I mean, and Mississippi State, look, Mississippi State came out like gangbusters the first couple weeks and people were crowning Joe Moorhead the next, you know, great offensive mind. And Joe Moorhead is a good offensive mind. I'm not knocking him. but they've been held to seven and six points the last two weeks. But, no, they were very impressive last week. And, yeah, this line, as I'm sure you'll mention,

at Florida plus two, seems very, very short. It is a daunting road ahead for LSU. You know, the next, as you mentioned, what, four games are going to be really challenging. They've got two top ten wins, if you can consider. I mean, at the time, Miami and Auburn were both top ten teams. I like Joe Burrell. His numbers aren't great. So if you're a numberhead.

I know they're not. But I like him. No, but he doesn't throw picks. He has no picks yet. And look, when it came down to it in Auburn, he got them in position to kick that game-winning field goal. He's a good quarterback. It's not great quarterback. He's a good quarterback.

And for years, that's all they've really needed, Kevin. I just don't know, you know, what is LSU going to be at the end of the year? I mean, when you've got Georgia and you've got Alabama and that end of the season game at Texas A&M, I actually like Texas A&M. I like them this weekend, too. I think this is going to be very interesting because I'm not an Endororon fan as a coach. Me neither. I think he's a good position coach.

I think he's a phenomenal recruiter. But I'm curious to see what they do on Saturday because I think they lose outright at the swamp on Saturday. I do too. If they were to get through this game, though, that would set up a massive game against Georgia. Oh, cute. And it's still good. It'll still be big. It'll still be a big game.

But what you said, LSU has lacked offensive creativity in a quarterback here in recent years. And I know Joe Burroughs numbers are not great. I know that. But I think that he has the mindset. He's aggressive and they let him throw the ball down the field. I think LSU is really good. I think the SEC right now just on both sides.

Like we have not seen a great east in the SEC, but you've got three teams right now. Florida held Mississippi State last week in Starkville to six points and 98 yards passing. Dan Mullins eventually going to figure out the offense in Florida in Gainesville. This defense is so good and I think that they, that Kentucky loss early in the year, you thought, oh, okay, here we go. Another rough year for Florida. Kentucky's undefeated. I sort of agree with you. I think A&M's got a chance to knock Kentucky off this weekend. but the SEC, the games ahead, the matchups ahead are incredible. Even if you think Bama's a cut above everybody else.

I mean, there's a game this week, Auburn and Mississippi State. It's a big game for Auburn to sort of stay in the hunt. Do you think Texas this week tomorrow in the Red River rivalry can beat Oklahoma? I do. I don't think they will. I do, too. But if you just look at recent years, this game has always been close. And I know it's so cliche to say, oh, the rivals, you throw the record out, the window, but you kind of have to do that in this game.

This offense, though, for Oklahoma is just so dynamic. I mean, I know everyone points to the Army game, but the Army had the ball the whole game. Yeah, I mean, every time they touch the ball, Oklahoma was able to score. Kevin, they averaged over 10 yards per play last week against Baylor. They averaged, they had 607 yards and 54 plays. They are explosive, and the more you hear people talk about Lincoln Riley, the more people believe, the more I believe he's going to be in the NFL pretty soon. They think he's of the same kind of mindset of a Sean McBay. They believe he is a savant when it comes to steaming up offenses. And Kyler Murray has just stepped in. And, you know, he's replacing a Heisman trophy winner. And his numbers, he's completing 70% of his passes. He's got 17 touchdowns over two picks. And he can run the ball. He's run for over 285 yards. I think Texas is pretty good.

I really do. The game they played after Maryland against Tulsa was kind of lackluster, but they're very good defensively. They're very good defensively. And Ellinger's okay. He's not great, but he's fine. And I like Tom Herman. I'm a believer in Tom Herman. In this spot, I would take Texas plus the seven, but I think Oklahoma will win.

Give me your best play of the week. You don't have to give me all of them because I want people to pay for him on. on your podcast. No, no, I give them out for free. And hell, I mean, you might want to pick the other side. Well, just give me your best play. My best play is Texas A&M. I really like Texas A&M. I really like Texas A&M minus the six at home against Kentucky. I like Kentucky. That line makes no sense. Tonight, Cooley Squad. I don't know if you looked at this one. I did. Cooley Squad plus the two and a half, Utah State at BYU. And then my last one I'll throw out. This line makes no sense, but they're

really bad. Pittsburgh's only a three-point underdog against Syracuse. Doesn't make any sense. That makes no sense. I know. All right, you and I think the same way. By the way, one other just quick thought on college football in general. If Oklahoma wins, you're starting to head towards what could be one of the best football games and most important football games of the year at the end of the year in Morgantown, Oklahoma at West Virginia to finish up this season. Now, could be the first of back-to-back weeks of playing each other. That's a possibility, too. But can you imagine Morgantown on a Saturday night in November? Is it a Friday night on a Friday night for the Big 12 title and potentially a playoff spot?

That would be fun. Thanks, as always. Appreciate it. All right, let's get to the smell test. Kevin looks where the John Q Public is putting their cash and does the opposite. It's time for the smell test. That's it. That's it, Ralph Wesley. I just look for where all the public money is and just go opposite. It's a little bit more to it. I'll explain it every week until people really get a hang.

I get the hang for what I'm doing here. I just don't think the public usually wins when they bet on sports. And the reason I don't think that is because Vegas continues to build all these massive beautiful hotels with all of the money that people lose. They don't always lose. It's not a lock that they're going to lose when they're all on one side and I'm on the other.

But over the course of a season, more times than not, the house wins and the average Joe better loses. I've employed this sort of contrarian handicapping philosophy personally and on the shows that I've hosted over the years. And I'm not going to tell you

that I've built two or three, you know, additional homes with the winnings. It hasn't happened that way. But what it has guaranteed, typically year and year out, is that I don't get smoked. Eight out of 12 years, I've won, four of the years I've lost. And even when we've had losing records, it's been like at 49%, 48%. The winning years have usually been in the 55% plus range.

I've had a couple of 60% plus ranges. Anytime somebody tells you that they went 75% for a season, season, they're lying. It doesn't happen. It's more than just going opposite of the public. It's also some of the information that I'm privy to offshore information through a lot of people that I've known over the years that live in places that are much warmer than here in December and January. And I get a lot of information from them as to where the sharp money is and other pieces of information. And that all puts together. It all gets mixed up. It all gets mixed up. a pot together to produce the smell test picks for the week.

Now, last week I was 5, 7, and 1 overall. I am 23, 21, and 3 on the season. So two games above 500, and that's really because I've struggled with the college picks. I'm 9, 2, and 1 the last three weeks on the NFL. But I'm going to start with Saturday because I have a feeling tomorrow it turns with college football. The public better has been winning through the first quarter of the season in college football, and I think it's going to turn big tomorrow. And I'll start with a game that was just mentioned by Tim Murray.

Syracuse nearly beat Clemson last week. They were undefeated going into that game. They're a one-loss team, and they play at Pitt on Saturday tomorrow. That line should be seven, seven and a half, eight. It's three and a half. the public is in love with Syracuse, laying three and a half at Pitt, and sharp money, lots of it, on the Panthers at home at Heintz Field against Syracuse. Take Pitt plus the three and a half in your first smell test pick of the weekend.

Another game that we talked about. LSU should be favored by more. They are the number five or six team in the country at this point. Florida can't score. They lost to Kentucky. They beat Mississippi State last week, but only scored 13 points in beating Mississippi State in Starkville. Florida's defense is a top five defense in the country.

Florida should be getting five or six at home tomorrow. They're getting two. The line begs for John Q Public to lay the two and take LSU as a highly ranked team on the road at the swamp. This is a typical smell test pick. 72% of the public action right now, according to my sources, is on LSU. Take Florida plus the two in this game.

I think the Gators win this game outright and with it announced themselves as a contender to win the SEC East. Even though they've got one loss to Kentucky, they still have a game against Georgia. and Georgia still has a game against Kentucky. Arizona State is in Boulder to face Colorado. Colorado is undefeated.

I gave out UCLA last Friday night as a smell test pick against Colorado. Did not work out, although that game was close throughout. UCLA played better than they had played. Colorado pulled away late in one. Colorado is only laying two to Arizona State at home. Way short. way too short in this particular game. Public loves Colorado.

Give me Arizona State plus the two. Northwestern nearly beat Michigan last week, and Michigan State has not looked very good. They've not been an explosive Michigan State team. I'll be honest with you. I don't know what to make of the Spartans this year. I don't think it's a very good Spartans team, but they're laying a big number to Northwestern this week at home.

They're laying 10, and the public loves Northwestern. recent impressions always mean something, and Northwestern should have beat Michigan last week, covered easily the 13 and a half losing by three. And here's Michigan State laying 10 a week later. Take the Spartans and lay the 10. It's an easy win over Northwestern. And then one last college game,

Auburn is just three and a half against Mississippi State this weekend. Mississippi State was a sleeper pick to do some damage in the SEC West. Joe Moorhead and company. They've struggled here recently, and they only put up six last week against Florida at home. That's why this line appears to be short. It appears to beg you to play Auburn and lay the points. Give me Mississippi State Plus the three and a half.

Three other games that were near picks this weekend. Boston College against NC State, Utah against Stanford, and Nebraska this week, catching 17 against Wisconsin. They are what I would call liens. They are not official smell test picks, but I personally will be on Boston College, Utah, and Nebraska tomorrow. And Murray mentioned A&M. I looked at them a little bit,

but believe it or not, the public likes A&M a little bit as well. Let's go to Sunday. It's a really good NFL card, and there were several games that I really liked, but I'm only pulling the trigger on three of those games. I thought I was going to have many more games in the smell test this week, but after a lot of research and a lot of work last night and early this morning, there are three NFL picks.

Let me just tell you that the Browns, Bills, and Falcons all look right, but they are liens for me. I will personally have them, but they did not qualify via the smell test criteria. Why? because either sharp money was against it or the public money wasn't overwhelming. Here are the three games where the public's heavily on one side and there's some sharp money opposite the public money.

The Jets are pick-em against Denver at home. Denver's in that short week scenario with the Monday night loss to Kansas City, a devastating loss. The Jets have looked bad here the last few weeks and it's pick-em. I think Denver should be a three-point favorite, even with the game on the road. It's also that west to east thing with the early one o'clock start. The public loves Denver. Give me the Jets and a pick-em. They beat the Broncos on Sunday.

The Lions are plus one at home against Green Bay. The public loves the Packers. There is sharp money on Detroit. I like the Lions just in general. I think they are a capable team, and I think they're going to be a team that gets back in the mix here in the NFC North. I think they beat the Packers, take them plus the one.

And then the biggest public play of the weekend, the Rams laying 7 at Seattle. The Rams are going to become the rest of the year, a big public team. And it's going to be one of those situations where if they go into Seattle and they blow out Seattle,

you're going to get into one of those situations like you've had with the Patriots at times during certain years where you can't make a line high enough to get the public off it. Well, the line isn't that high this week. They're laying seven in Seattle. They've had the rest off the Thursday night win a week ago Thursday night in the Coliseum over the Vikings. The public loves, loves the Rams and the line has just sat there at seven all week. It hasn't moved. Has it moved up to seven and a half? Has it moved up to eight?

Now, keep an eye on that game. If it goes to seven and a half, eight, eight and a half, something like that. I would back off it at the last minute. But if that line holds firm at seven and it's seven at game time, I'm going to pound the Seahawks plus the seven. I again think the Browns look right with a short number against the Ravens. I think the bills look right. I think the Falcons look right in their matchup against the Steelers. But there's too much conflicting information for those games to be actual smell test releases. So let me recap the picks for the weekend. Saturday, I like Pitt plus three and a half at home against Syracuse,

Florida plus two at home against LSU, Arizona State plus two against Colorado, Michigan State laying 10 to Northwestern, and Mississippi State plus three and a half against Auburn. On Sunday, the Jets pick them against Denver, the Lions plus one against the Packers and Seattle plus seven against the Rams. Those are the smell test picks. Yes, I thought there were going to be more yesterday. I did.

I thought there were going to be more college games. And again, I gave you the liens that I like. But I'm not going to give you a game that doesn't fit the smell test criteria. Heavy public action, heavy one-sided public action with also some sharp money to back it up. That's really typically what drives these picks. If you like this podcast, tell others about it. If the others that you tell about it, say, I don't know how to do a podcast, just tell them to go to

the Kevin Sheeonshow.com. It's that easy. The website, there's a big play button right there. You can listen to all of the past episodes as well. And if you are listening to this via the normal podcast channels, iTunes, Stitcher, Tune in, Google Play, rate it and subscribe. That always helps us. You can follow us now on Facebook, Instagram,

follow me on Twitter at Kevin Sheehan, D.C. And follow the Sheehan Podcast, the Kevin Sheean Show podcast. It's at Sheehan podcast on Twitter. Also want to tell you about launch workplaces. If you live in the Bethesda Chevy Chase Upper Northwest D.C. area, and you're looking for a place to work outside the home launch workplaces in Bethesda is the spot. beautiful new spaces, fully furnished offices, conference rooms, co-working desks, high-speed internet, complimentary drinks at cafe, free parking, 24-7 access.

Get more work done today by moving your office to launch workplaces. Call today for an exclusive free two-day trial. Call 240-86714 or visit launchworkplaces.com. That's 240-86714 or Lv. launchworkplaces.com. When we're back on Monday, Redskins beat Saints if, all right, we'll go through all of the keys to beating the Saints. If you didn't listen to Cooley, Cooley had a three-game sort of recap of the Redskins so far this season. That episode is available at the Kevin Sheehan Show.com or anywhere else. You can listen to all

the past episodes, but Cooley joined us on Wednesday for about 55 minutes. I urge you if you have not listened to that show yet. Go listen to it. It was great. He gave you grades on Alex Smith and really gave you a good feel for what he thinks this team is right now and what it can be. Monday, lots of Skin Saints preview, lots of NFL and college football recap. Until then, thanks to Aaron, thanks to Al Koken who joined us and Tim Murray who joined us. I think Clinton Portis may join us on Monday as well to preview Skin Saints, but have a great weekend. Thank you.