The Kevin Sheehan Show - A Win They Don't Want

Episode Date: December 22, 2023

Kevin today with a preview of a game that if Washington wins will hurt their current top-4 draft position badly. He's got plenty on the show including his thoughts on the Commanders-Jets game with a prediction. Jay Gruden jumped on for his weekly visit. Jay gave out his NFL "Lock of the Week" which is a sizzling 9-4 ATS on the show. Kevin had 8 "Bowl" and "NFL" weekend picks himself to finish up. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it, but you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheyenne Show. Here's Kevin. John Carlson to Dylan Strom. Strome through the seam, Ovechkin, fires! Scor! The Great Wait is over.

The Great Weight is over. What a great call by the great Joe Beninati last night in Columbus. Alex Ovechkin had gone 14 games in a row without a goal. but he scores last night in OT to beat the Blue Jackets. It's just his sixth goal on the season. He's got 828 now for his career. That is still 66 goals short of Gretzky's all-time mark. I think there was a feeling that Ovechkin, if healthy, would break the record sometime in 2024,

2025 next season, but right now at the pace he's on, it won't be next year. The game winner for him was the 125th all time in his career in terms of a game winner. Last night's was his 26th in overtime in the regular season. That's an NHL record. Did you know that Ovechkin has never had an overtime goal in the playoffs? Never. But he leads the NHL for all-time, overtime game-winning goals in the regular season. Good for him last night to get back into the scoring column.

The show today presented, as always, by Windonation. Call them at 86690 Nation or go to Windonation.com. Mention my name. They'll take good care of you. Jay Gruden coming up in the next segment, the smell test to finish up the show before all of that. A few things to get to, which includes a prediction on the game on Sunday, I guess. I could do the normal keys to a win over the Jets.

think I'm going to skip that this week and do something different because we don't want them to win the game, number one, but we have felt that way for a few weeks anyway. But how about reasons to watch the game? Because number one would be just kind of the hope that they lose the game. But I'll get to a prediction and reasons to watch the game a little bit later on here in this segment. Let's face it, by the way, another win for this franchise would not be good. It wouldn't.

I hate this time of year. rooting for losses. But, you know, there's no carryover from this year to next. There's going to be a total coaching and football front office regime change. The roster's probably going to change a ton too. It's crucial, really, that they stay right where they are for the upcoming draft. One win, the rest of the way, could be the difference of picking fourth or better versus ninth or worse. that's too big of a difference in the upcoming draft with three to four quarterbacks likely to go in the top seven, top ten. Not to mention even if we get to that point where the new regime says, you know what, we're okay with the quarterback situation. Or we don't like the quarterbacks at the top of the draft.

The best two left tackles in the draft will likely be gone by number nine. So winning Sunday is something, you know, if you really care, about the future of this team, you really don't want them to win this game. I know it's a fan thing, and I hate it as a fan thing. I hate rooting for them to lose at the end of these seasons. We've gotten too used to it. It's not a players thing. They're going to play their best. They've got job security or job opportunity, you know, on their minds. Would it be a bad thing if Josh Harris said to Ron this week, hey, how about, you know, maybe getting some players up off the practice squad? Let's see what they got, you know?

Payne, we know what he can do. John Allen, we know what he can do. Terry McCorn, we know what he can do. How about some of those players off the practice squad run for the jet game on Sunday? Because this is the game of their final three that is winnable. And by the way, that's the way organizations tank. It's not asking players to blow the game, obviously. It's not even asking coaches to blow the game. It's front offices saying, we want to see the general manager wants to see some of these other players play. Now, that's a hard thing in this case because there's no other general manager. It's Ron. I mean, Martin Mayhew, for sure, but Ron's the single football decision maker.

But I don't know if Josh Harris will do that. I doubt that he will. But I know that this draft is an important one from a leverage standpoint. I get it. It's a complete crapshoot. year in and year out, with quarterbacks in particular, really with all players. I mean, it's not like the ninth pick doesn't end up with a better career than the fourth pick all the time. Anyway, I understand that. That's not really the point. The point is, the leverage you have in this upcoming draft with a top four-ish kind of a pick will be higher than usual because of the perception that there are at least three quarterbacks in this draft, maybe four or five, that have.

very high ceilings. I had Matt Miller, an ESPN draft analyst on the radio show yesterday. Matt's not a big fan of Sam Hal as the future franchise quarterback starter. He likes Sam more as a Gardner Minshew type. He's a big fan of Jaden Daniels, the Heisman Trophy winner from LSU, as I am. I asked him what he thought Washington's plan should be in the draft if they stay at four. Here's what he said. I think you dropped Jaden Daniels in the first round and look to build up that offensive line. And, you know, defensive line, you try to do that subsequent rounds. You're going to have two picks early in round two.

So can you walk out with Jaden Daniels? Can you walk out with an offensive tackle like, you know, Kingsley Suamatu or Patrick Paul, who project his left tackles? And then, you know, can you get an edge rusher like J.T. Tuolmolo, Chop Robinson. and can you get another edge rusher, you know, maybe at pick 40, 41, and say, okay, we've got a quarterback, we've got a left tackle, we've got a pass rusher. Those are the three most important positions in football, and those are realistic. You know, that's not me saying you're going to get three guys who will never be on the board there. But if you're at 4, 3641, those are definitely names

that are possibilities. For those wondering, and I was to, the two tackles he mentioned, Kingsley Suamataia played at BYU, and Patrick Paul played at Houston. Both are pretty much right now. top 10 tackles projected in the draft. The two pass rushers he mentioned, I know both of those players. And if you watched college football, especially Big Ten games this year, you know JT. Tuwe Moeloa from Ohio State, number 44, monster playmaker, Chop Robinson also number 44 from Penn State. Both of those guys are projected as top five-ish, you know, edge rushers.

Jaden Daniels, man. Most of you know this. I'd be really excited about Jaden Daniels. I thought he was the best player in college football all season long. I thought he was one of the most exciting college players I've watched in many years. There's so much you don't know in terms of the transition to the NFL. There's so much you don't know with respect to the intangibles. I did ask Matt Miller about that.

And he said that, you know, in his discussions with people that know Jaden Daniels, They say he's the real deal when it comes to things like work ethic and, you know, being a guy in the locker room and a leader, et cetera. So that would excite me if they took Jaden Daniels at number four in the draft. And then added a couple of tackles and a couple of rushers and a couple of really good players because they need a lot of good players is what they really need on this football team. Yesterday was coordinator day out at the park. Eric Bieneme is the only coordinator now holding weekly press conferences because Ron is, I guess, technically the defensive coordinator. I guess that's why we're not hearing from anybody defensively on Thursdays.

But yesterday's presser with Eric B. Enemy was an interesting one because it was his first chance to weigh in on what happened in L.A. on Sunday, the benching of Sam Howe. And he did give some clarity to how it came about that they decided to bench him in the fourth quarter. He also had a lot to say about how in his answer, here it was. You know what, Coach Ron, he basically said, hey, you know what, let's rest him. You know, let's give him a break. Let's let him sit back.

And let's give him an opportunity to observe Jacobi. And let's give Jacob an opportunity to go play. And so I agree with him at that particular time. There was no hesitation. And obviously, Coach Revere is a head man. And when he makes a comment, he has 51%. to vote and I honestly agreed with him at that particular time because I felt he was pressing and you never want to see someone pressing and I just want to make sure I state this loud and

clear. Sam is a hell of a kid on top of that he's a hell of a quarterback that's accepted a huge challenge. It's not very easy being in the road that he's in okay I'm not going to make any excuses for him as well. But on top of that, as a group, we got to make sure that everyone is rallying around him and play. We got to play better in the run game. We got to make sure we're protecting the quarterback. We got to make plays on the perimeter. And so it all ties together. And so it's tough when you're in that predicament. But I thought at that particular moment, that was the right decision to do. And I tell you what, not shock nor surprise at the time. At the time, the success that Jacoby had, he did a hell of a job. He showed why he's a player of high

caliber in this business. He's also shown that his leadership and basically all the experience that he has and playing in a multitude of offenses, it paid off because he just went out there and played. He didn't think. And that was the big thing, probably more than anything, that Sam got out of that was Jacobi went out and played. game. He didn't go out and overthank the process. So Bianami mentioned prior to that answer a couple of times

that Sam's pressing too much. You know, that last line about Berset not overthinking the process is what they want from Sam Hal right now. At one point during the press conference, Bianami made the statement that it's better for Sam to be decisive right now

than anything else. And he said one of the reasons is when you're decisive, you're usually right. They want him to play, as they described, you know, Jacoby Bursett's play more freely. We'll see if that happens and whether or not there was some benefit to sitting him and watching Jacoby Berset run the offense Sunday in L.A. I mean, I have a hard time believing that they pulled Sam for the sole purpose of getting to see what Jacoby Berset would do with the offense and to see how he plays more freely.

Like, did they really think that Jacoby Brissette was going to come in and lead two touchdown drives and look as good as he did? It's possible. I mean, the very first snap, he was pressured. He ended up running for nine yards. What if that very first snap had been a sack and he hadn't gotten free? And then it's second and 16. And then, you know, they're punting. And then, I mean, you know, it's a fine line in football.

Jacobi played really well, though. He really did. He looked awesome. And he did look decisive. even in that run, even in that up the middle, a gap pressure scramble for nine yards on the first snap. That was decisive. They want Sam to play more freely.

We'll see if he can do it starting Sunday against a New York jet defense that if it comes to play is a better defense, a much better defense than the Rams defense last week. Speaking of the Rams, they beat the Saints last night in the next to last Thursday night game of the year. flies by. They beat the Saints 30 to 22. It was a loser for the smell test. And it was, yeah, got interesting late. But for the most part, it was the wrong side all night long. Derrick Carr can be extremely frustrating to watch sometimes opening drive. They drive it down the field. They're in

field goal range. And on third down, he takes a sack knocking him out of field goal range. second drive. They're down in Rams territory again. Fourth down takes a sack. There's another fourth down where they're at midfield and he throws a ball to nowhere. I mean, there's no receiver within 10 yards of the ball. His numbers always, not always, but they often look good. He had 300 plus yards and three touchdowns last night, but much of that came really when they were down 30 to 7. something interesting at the end of that game, maybe interesting only to me. But I mentioned last week when Washington was on defense at the end of the game,

down eight against the Rams. They had taken their last time out with 44 seconds to go, and the Rams ran a play. Not only did they run a play, they handed the ball off to Kyron Williams, who had fumbled twice in the game already. And I said on Monday's recap, I'm like, what was Sean McVeigh doing?

All he's got to do is have Matt Stafford take the snap, walk back two or three steps, take a knee, and it's game over. Like even if the play ends at 41 seconds and there's a one second differential, you've got a fourth down for him to take another one or two steps back, take a knee, and end the game. But instead, they handed the ball off to Kyron Williams. He didn't fumble, and the clock ran out on Washington. But last night in the game, exact same situation. third down, the Saints were out of timeouts. I think there were 42, 43 seconds left, maybe one or two seconds fewer, but still pretty much the same situation. And he had Matt Stafford walk back to three steps, take a knee, game over.

And, you know, even the 44 seconds versus the 42 seconds, if you got to a fourth down, you could have just taken a snap and, you know, taken a few steps back or rolled right and throw the ball out of bounds, you know, to end the game. But you don't want to hand the ball off in a situation when you don't have to hand the ball off. When you do that, you end up with what Miami, Mario Cristobal, the head coach at Miami, ended up with this year when they had the game won against Georgia Tech. All they had to do was take a knee. Actually, they could have taken two knees. They ran the ball twice. The second time they ran it. Fumble, Georgia Tech gets it. They win the game. A few more things before we get to some other reasons to watch.

Sunday's game against the Jets, along with a prediction on the game. I mentioned Caps and Ovechkin at the start of this show. How about some wizards talk? Not a lot of it, I promise you. But they won last night, 1-18-117 in Portland. Who cares about the win? But how about this as a stat line from Daniel Gafford, their center? 16 points, fine, eight rebounds, okay.

but six blocked shots and four steals. From your center, six blocked shots and four steals. Our friend Chase Hughes tweeted this out. Gafford became the first Wizards Bullets player to have six plus blocks and four plus steals in a game since Murison back in 1995. He's only the third player in the history of the franchise to do it, Purvis Ellison was the other, never nervous Purvis, with the other one.

I would have thought that maybe Elvin Hayes on the block shot thing and steals that he may have had games with six blocks plus, but maybe not in the same game four steals. I guarantee you the big he had six blocks plus in many games. And I bet you he had games in which he had four steals plus. But obviously it was something he never did in the same. same game. The Wizards, by the way, have won two of their last four. They play the Warriors tonight on the road. It'll be Jordan Poole's first game against his former team. Another quick NBA item. It's a good thing that I did not have an NBA smell test pick for you yesterday. I didn't

see this. I would have mentioned this during the show yesterday if I had seen it. But the Detroit Pistons, if you're not paying attention, before last night had lost 24 games in a row. They're approaching the NBA record for the most consecutive regular season losses of all time. 24 in a row heading into their game against Utah last night. They were two-point favorites. That would have been right up my alley in terms of a smell test selection. They did not win the game, meaning they also did not cover in the game.

They lost by eight to Utah. their 25th straight loss, that's one short of the NBA record, held by the 2010-2011 Cleveland Cavaliers. That was the year after LeBron left for Miami. Also holding the record at 26 consecutive losses, NBA record, Josh Harris's trust the process 76ers, who lost 26 in a row in 2013, 2014. Detroit can tie that mark tomorrow night in Brooklyn. Speaking of Detroit, the Lions offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson, is the guy that's going to be probably the most sought after of the assistant coaches to become head coaches when the hiring process starts. Yesterday, there was a report from Josina Anderson that it would take $15 million or so a year.

year to get Ben Johnson, to which Johnson's agent Richmond Flowers immediately shot back, quote, 100% false and irresponsible reporting. By the way, if the name Richmond Flowers is familiar, it's because Mike Shanahan hired him in 2010 in Washington to be an offensive assistant. He was here for, I think, three or four years. You know, we never talk about that Shanahan staff. It was pretty good. We should talk about that more. But look, it's going to take a lot of money to get some of these hot assistants, somebody like Ben Johnson.

I don't know about $15 million a year. But when you pay $6 billion for a franchise, I hope we don't start cutting back on offers to head coaches and front office personnel when there's no salary cap related to that. But it's not my money. And I know they overpaid. I know what they paid. And God bless them.

Bless their hearts, because without them, we might still have Dan. All right, reasons to watch Washington against the Jets on Sunday. I already gave you number one for the purpose of hoping, rooting for them to lose. Can't win that game on Sunday. God, I hate this, as I've said. I hate this at the end of seasons. Hopefully maybe this is the last time. Even though next year does look like a rebuilding year of sorts.

But who the hell knows in the NFL? Houston was supposed to win four games this year. They're tied for first in their division with eight wins. Here are the other reasons to watch, more serious reasons, although that first reason is kind of serious. It just won't be a serious one for them out on the field on Sunday. So here's a reason to watch. Sam How? You know, can he play freely? Can he play without pressing? How does he bounce back from what was, I think, the most. adversity after a game he's faced so far in his very young pro career. Some of the bad games he's had, those were moments of adversity. The Arizona game was not a good game. They won it. He

bounced back with a good game against Denver. The Buffalo game, obviously a disaster, bounced back with a really good game against Philly. The Bears game, not great, bounced back with a decent game against the Falcons. The Giants first loss at the Meadowlands. Not a good game and he bounced back with a great game against Philly at FedEx. But, you know, that kind of adversity game to game or in game is different, I think, than getting benched and maybe feeling the weight of some frustration, both his own and the coaching staff. He's got something to prove, something to play for down the stretch here. Whomever will be making the decisions starting in January January will have quarterback high on the list.

Sam leaving a strong closing impression can't hurt him. Another two to three games, though, like the last four or five, I think would be a big, big issue for him. Another reason to watch, how about this one? Emmanuel Forbes. If he doesn't play the majority snaps against a team that cannot throw the football and can't score as the first round pick and healthy, it's not a good sign, you know?

I mean, there's no threat by the opposing offense this week. 32nd ranked offense in the NFL. If he plays six snaps again like he did last week, it's a clear signal. Something ain't right. Like, you get to a point, even if you are not thrilled with what he's giving you, you put him on the field as your first round pick at corner. in games that are totally meaningless at the end of the year. You give him the opportunity to show you

that maybe he's a gamer on game day. You got to put him out there. You got to let him play. I mean, if this is one of those things where he's killing us, how much could he kill you really against the Jets? I guess the Jets did have one game. They had a game a few weeks ago where they did score 30 against Houston, but I think it was a lot of defensive plays that set up a lot of those points.

But anyway, I digress. Emmanuel Forbes. It's got to be on the field. And then lastly, number 32 defense has mentioned against the number 32 offense, number 31 per DVOA, number 32 in yards produced. But you really do have the worst defense against the worst offense in the NFL. I mean, and then you've got a really good defense in the Jets defense against not a great offense in Washington. offense. It's the reason the Jets are three-point favorites along with them playing at home, although there's not going to be much of a home field advantage in the medal lands on Christmas Eve for a team that's five and nine against a team four and ten. All right, prediction. 16-16 tie. I predicted eight-eight-and-one before the year. Last year got it exactly right. I need a tie to at least get the tie portion of my 8, 8 and 1 prediction for this year. Right.

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Jay is with us as he is every Friday during football season. And I wanted to mention that we've gotten a lot of ratings and reviews on Apple in particular that mention Jay. Don't forget to rate us and review us on Apple and Spotify. Subscribe to the podcast. Follow us on both of those platforms and any other platforms. that you can follow us on. But Jay, you've been mentioned in several of these reviews. This one from TAL.

Tau writes Jay's Awesome on the show. His lock of the week is killing it, Kev. You had Washington. He had the Rams. I'm writing with Coach. You're 9 and 4 on this show against the spread. Not bad. That's unbelievable.

What do you mean, not bad? Yep. It'll be 10 and 4. would you say? Fixing to be 10 and 4. Fixing to be 10 and 4. We will get to that. 10 and 4 would be amazing.

Yeah, he had the Rams last week as his lock of the week. It would have been nice for those of us that had Washington. Had they made that extra point, would have gotten a push, because I actually played it to plus 7, but I gave you the Rams at minus 6.5. I thought they were going to go for 2 there, given the snapper. issues and the fact that a lot of teams now down eight the analytics say go for two in that particular spot but i couldn't believe they put the snapper back out there it was a tough day for him unfortunately and he lost his job because he never want to see that but i don't think

i've ever seen a snapper have issues like that that often well it was the yips i mean it was putting yips clearly i've got those i could see it on the putting green because i do it all the time but a long snapperet. I don't know. All right. Here's a more serious review from Stephen. Stephen loves you too. He says, Jay's great on the show with you.

He seems like a regular guy, and he's very likable. I was reading this story about Brandon Staley losing the Chargers locker room. Did Jay ever feel like that happened to him in Washington? I think it probably came across that way with a couple players. you know, DJ Sweringer always had something to say. So a couple guys like that, but for the most part, I felt pretty good about, you know, some of the core of the football team, I felt like I still had control over.

But I could see that they could sense that I was on my way out fairly quickly if things didn't change, and they didn't change. So I was on the way out. But I never felt like I lost them where they were, like, ignoring me. But I could be wrong. Did you still have good relationships with your former players? Yeah, I still talk to some of them. Sure. I don't like, you know, not crazy because I'm down here in Florida and all that,

but I follow them and follow their careers and what they're doing. Are there any players specifically you talk too often? Colt McCoy, probably. I text Kirk every now and then, a lot of the quarterbacks and some of the other guys, you know, I'll yell out. I'll see them in town when I'm in Virginia. I see Jonathan Allen out sometimes. I'll love to him and stuff like that, but nothing crazy. All right. Let's talk about what happened last week. What was your reaction when he benched Sam Hall and put Jacoby Brissette into the game.

Well, I thought Sam was hurt initially, but, you know, when it came out that he just took him out, I think I could really understand it, you know, because you're still trying to win the game, and Sam was struggling. He had the nice touchdown drive there, then he comes back, and he throws a pick across the body. But he'd never look comfortable in that game. I think it's not a bad thing to take the young quarterback out in that type of situation. Try to give your team a spark, because you're still trying to win. Not necessarily trying to, lose the quarterback's confidence in you or anything like that or let the team know that you've lost confidence in them. But sometimes you do need to take a guy out, let him take a step back and watch

and learn from a veteran guy like Jacoby. All right, but they took him out for the way he was performing. You agree with that, right? It wasn't to protect him from some sort of battering because he wasn't taking one in that game. 100%. So what does that say about Sam Howell right now? also there is some doubt but in that particular game it wasn't his best game it's like a pitcher you know sometimes pitchers can go nine innings and throw a three hit shut out next game they throw a three and he gave up nine runs he gave up nine runs in that game and didn't play very well so they had to take him out but i think there is a level of doubt maybe so to speak that this fam is the guy to lead your football team for the next five ten fifteen years so i think they definitely will be a major player in the draft um looking for quarterback. So why do you think that doubt exists? I think that Sam's a good player. He's tough. Obviously, you want to root for him. He's got a skill set that shows that he belongs in the NFL

is a starter, but I think you're always going to be in the market for a guy that can carry your franchise for the next 15. You're just not sure because he, I don't know, it's a consistency. His accuracy, consistency isn't very good. He's a good player. He can. and throw the ball accurately, but not consistently, if that makes sense. And his production, he'll have a good game, a good quarter, and then a bad quarter, and then a bad series, a good series. It's just, it's not very consistent, but he's a young player. And I'm telling you, if they don't get the quarterback they want early,

then I think they're still okay building around Sam for the next couple years, see how he does. Well, the they'll be a whole new group of they who will come in to make those decisions. It seemed to many that they were more frustrated with the, things that he wasn't getting to because there's still plays that he makes during games, but most of them recently have come kind of off schedule with his mobility. Do you see that he's missing things? I feel like, I think lately I feel like he's been aborting mission a little bit too quick,

like you're mentioning that he's not getting to his first, second, third, first, second or third or fourth progression. He's leaving the pocket. And I can probably understand why, because the offensive line has struggled. They actually played pretty good against the RAM. But before that, they were not very good internally. And when your quarterback's not very tall, and there's a lot of push up the middle,

the natural reaction for that quarterback is to a forked mission and get out of pocket. But against the Rams, he had time, and he's still a boarded mission, if that makes sense. So I think that was the issue right now with Sam. He's got to make sure he gets back in the pocket, gets comfortable. Stan's Paul tries to go through his progressions if he can and hit the open guy. How many times do you, on a Monday, you know, sit down, watch the tape,

and get frustrated because maybe the quarterback had a decent day. Statistically, the fans look at it, and he threw for 240, and he ran for 50-something yards, and you're like it could have been so much more. Yeah, that happens a lot. Actually, you know, the play caller, you like, you like to feel like you call the perfect play all the time. That guy's open, see, I knew it. More often than not, I've been watching the film with the commanders is that's not been the case.

The receivers have not gotten a lot of consistent. separation. Okay. And the line hasn't protected very well. So I think that's part of the issue with Sam. You know, you guys aren't getting open on a consistent basis, but I'm not getting consistent protection. So I do have to buy time to enable them to get open, and so I don't get hit the face every time.

So there's some issues there, but you're right. Sometimes when you watch film and you go through it, and you're like, Sam, you've got to go through this. This is your third progression right here. It's cover two. This is your first, this is the side you're reading, not that side. It's still a learning process for him, and the more he plays, the better he's going to get.

So they're putting him back out there as the starter. Do you think that's the right decision? Yeah, I think he's earned that right. I think he's played good enough this year to stay with him as a starting quarterback. You know, he's had some really good games on the road and at home. You know, he's had some struggles like all quarterbacks have. Heck, look around in a league, there's not many quarterbacks that have played consistently well for 16 straight games or 17, whatever it is. So you have your ups and down, especially as a young quarterback, but I think he's done enough to retain that job.

What can we learn about Sam? What can they learn about Sam over these final three games that we don't know already? Or they don't know already? You know what? I just think competitiveness and how he's doing, how he's progressing. I think that's the big thing is he getting better or worse. My dad always used to say he never stay the same either get better or worse. Big sign on my wall growing up.

And that's what we want to see Sam do. We want to see him getting better, not worse. The more information he gets, the more reps that he gets. the more reps that he gets, he should be getting better as his season goes on. But his team also has to help him. And, you know, that's the biggest case. Receivers got to get open the line has to protect. All right.

One other on this team. Well, first of all, actually, what did you think of Brissette over those final two drives? Jacobi's Jacoby. He's one of the top backup quarterbacks in the league. As far as backups are considered, for sure, he's played a lot of good football. He's a smart kid. He's done a lot of great things in his career, and I'm sure a lot of teams with these injuries would love to have him on their team as a starter right now as a playoffs or Lumen if their starter gets hurt.

But he's a good player. I've always liked Jacobi and doesn't surprise me that he comes in the game and lights fire. What does it say that in week 14, Emmanuel Forbes fully healthy only played six snaps, their first round pick? Well, there's a big issue because corners should never lose confidence in themselves or what they're doing. You've got to have a short memory of a corner. And obviously he hasn't had a short member or he's not playing very well. The combination of a lot of things. So that's a very big concern for me.

A young quarterback like that with a talent and a skill set that get drafted in the first round should be playing right now unless he's banged up or something. The game Sunday between Washington and the Jets Jays the only game in the league this week that does not include a team that still is alive mathematically for the postseason. What's the challenge of coaching in a game like this? Well, it's a challenge because players know. They know it's been a long season. And if there's no playoff implications in the game, you might get not the effort you're looking for,

but there are so many players that are playing for something, maybe future contracts. And you try to get guys that are competitive and want to play no matter of the circumstance. So you're hoping that the guys show up and play and compete. That's what you're looking for in a player in general, in the draft and free agency. So hopefully the guys did a good enough job

getting those type of players in there that won't quit or still want to compete and play. Have you even thought about this matchup at all? Like, what do you expect to see? No. Low scoring. Yeah. How about the Jets, though, this year?

I mean, that was a good football team with just a terrible quarterback situation. Yeah, I don't know about the team part, really. I think defensively, they're obviously one of the top defenses. Offensively, they're not good. I honestly don't think Aaron Rodgers is off the end up. They're offensive line as putrid. And, you know, you watch the game against Miami last night. I mean, the second play of the game, he's got three guys sitting right in the face.

He fumbles at the one-yard line. And next drive, they try a black from pass, left-back, west, and he gets sacked for a 12-yard loss. It's bad stuff up front in the jet land. They have a couple really good backs, too. Unfortunately, they can't get them to ball, get them going. So you don't think it would have made a difference had Aaron Rogers quarterbacked all year? Obviously, he would have made a little bit of a difference because he's held a player.

He's going to get the ball out of his hands. But for the long of all, I just don't think they would have been like a playoff contender, Super Bowl contender with Aaron. They've still won more games, obviously, but not to the extent people thought. Interesting. What did you think of the Rams last night in the way they're playing? Rams are playing good. You know, they're offensively, they have one of the better quarterbacks in the league, and they have two dynamic receivers and sure-handed guys that are tough players. And Sean does a good job calling the game. He keeps the running game going.

Crown Williams is emerges of really good running back, and Sean keeps that team balanced. And they're very good. And Rahe Morris, I think, has done a great job defensively. They lost a lot of good players, but Aaron Donald's still there. But overall, I think Rahim's done a great job. You've been a Derek Carr fan, your brother, a big Derek Carr fan through the years. Where are you on him right now? You know, I think, it's hard for me to say. I like Derek, he's a smart guy.

You can do a lot of different things with them pre-snap and play-wise and all that good stuff. but I'd rather have a guy that's a little bit more mobile. It can create some things off schedule because this day and age, unless you have a group of receivers like Jalen Wall and Tyree kill and guys like that, you're going to have to play some games outside the pocket. Play some plays outside the pocket. He just doesn't move and do that very well. And the receivers around him right now aren't good enough to get open nor the line to protect him.

So it's difficult to have a guy like Derek on your team when that's the case. How dangerous are the bills right now? very dangerous. I think Coach McDermott's one of the best defensive coaches in the league from a coverage standpoint from just the game plan perspective. He gets his defense role, and obviously now that James Cook is getting the ball and Josh Allen, the run threat that he is, they're a tough team to defend. Stefan Diggs, I mean, they're really good.

They're dangerous, and I think they can go a long way, obviously. What do you make of what Flacco is doing in Cleveland? I think it's a great thing. story. He's a guy that with a strong running game like they have, and they got a Mari Cooper. He doesn't move very well. We just talked about Derek Carr and how I'd rather have a guy that can move around.

Joe can't move around, but he's being efficient with the football and not making bad decisions, and guys are getting open a little bit and they're staying close, and Joe's making enough plays. And I think defensively, that's with keeping the Browns in a lot of games. All right, couple more. But Joe's doing a great

job. Yeah, they play the Texans on Sunday. That's a game in the AFC. It looks like Case Keenham will start. Did you see any of Case against Tennessee last week? I did watch Case. Case struggled early on, but you know, like Casey, he just stays with it. He's a he's a tough guy. I mean, very similar to Sam Hal. And a tough mindset, mentally tough, physically tough guys are going to keep battling and battling and competing. That's what he did. They ended up getting that win. They got a huge game this week. And it's on top of the division. The division is wide open. Three teams are tied for first.

I think Jacksonville still got a leg up on everybody from the tiebreakers, but without Trevor Lawrence this week, so it'll be tough for them. Yeah, they play at Tampa. That's a big game as well. Mayfield last week became the first road quarterback to have a perfect passer rating at Lambeau Field. What has been your opinion of Baker Mayfield over the years, and how do you think he's playing, and what do you think of the Bucs? I think Baker's played well.

You know, the Bucks have had some injuries defensively. They've struggled. to get guys back, but for the most part, Baker is doing awesome. He's one of those guys, I think, you know, he's kind of like Sam in a way that what Sam could be in his future. I think it's a Baker-Mayfield type. That guy can make plays with his way is a guy that's going to just play tough and gritty football, and at the end of the day, people want to play with him and play for him

because he's that type of competitor. love their back, Richard White. And I actually think it's a decent team. Are you a Todd Bowles fan or not? I do like Todd Bowles a lot. Yeah, I like Todd Bowles a lot. I actually tried to, I was hoping to hire him one year as my defensive coordinator, but he ended up, I can't remember where he ended up going to Tampa as a defensive coordinator with Bruce There he ends. He's a, he's a great guy, great coach. I'm happy for him, but, you know, they still, that's actually going to be my pick of a week, by the way, if you want to preview. Well, we'll preview here in a moment. Tampa Bay is a three-point favorite against Jacksonville.

We don't know this. Do we know the status of Trevor Lawrence? I don't know the status. You know, I'm down here right now, and, you know, he's still in the protocol, and I'm sure he probably got a little bit of reps. But, you know, the thing with that is if he has any symptoms at all, he goes back in it, I know that firsthand. I just don't like the way they're playing right now,

offensively or defensively the Jags. Defensively, especially, they're struggling. And offensively, Trevor has just been very inconsistent for my liking. And hopefully they get it back on track because they have a pretty damn good team. But I just think Tampa Bay is playing a lot of confidence right now. And Baker's playing extremely well. Mike Evans and Rashad White, like you mentioned, are great weapons. That's why I'm taking Tampa.

There it is. We didn't have to wait any longer for it. Tampa minus the three. Jay's 9 and 4 lock of the week against the spread on this show, trying to go 10 and 4. Tampa minus 3 at home. late afternoon Christmas Eve against Jacksonville. All right, real quickly, two more games.

Cowboys Dolphins. Great game. I like Miami. I just think the speed that they have and two is playing well. I just think it's going to be too much for Dallas's defense, but I do think Dallas is going to move the ball. And it's going to be a high-scoring game, really. But I think Miami, both these teams need this game just from a standpoint of

they've got to be a good team, right? One of them is going to end up doing that. and they're going to feel really good moving into the playoffs. Aware this game's going to really do a lot to boost their confidence level of moving to the playoffs. I think it's going to be Miami home. And then really what may be the game of the year and could be a preview of the Super Bowl, Christmas Night Ravens at Niners. Yeah, I agree with you on the preview of the Super Bowl.

It's probably a great chance. Baltimore is a physical football team on both sides of the ball, which you love. That's Jim Harbaugh style. and they play great defense, really good. But they're playing against a team like San Francisco who has weapons across the board. We all mentioned all that, the best receiving, the best receiving blockers in the NFL and Iuk and Samuel knows guys. So it's a physical game. I think it would be great, but I think San Francisco is going to win.

Hit him well today. Merry Christmas, happy holidays. Thanks so much for everything. You got it. Thanks, Kevin. Jay Gruden, everybody. I was thinking, too, that a lot of you during the course of the year, have asked me to ask Jay questions.

And the easiest way to maybe do that is the way I did it today. I wasn't intending on doing it. I read those reviews right before Jay came on with me. But if you review the show on Apple, you know, give us five stars if you see fit. And then write a quick one to two sentence review. Include in the review what you'd like me to ask Jay. And I will do that if the question is a good one. All right.

Up next, the smell test to end the show. We'll get to that right after these words from a few of our sponsors. Kevin looks where the John Q Public is putting their cash and does the opposite. It's time for the smell test. The smell test presented by, as always, MyBooky. Go to MyBooky.orgie.org. Use my promo code, Kevin, D.C., and they'll give you a cash bonus on your initial deposit. If you're looking for a place to wager during the holiday period, we don't have a day that will go by without football, starting last night right through January.

one, New Year's Day, football every day and every night pretty much. If you don't have a place to wager, my bookie is a safe, smart place to start. Fair point spreads, fair pricing, that's what you want. If you've got a place to wager already, many of you do, use MyBooky as the place in which you comparison shop on point spreads and pricing. It adds up. It matters. MyBooky.ag is a great spot for first-time betters or existing betters looking for a second site. Go to mybooky.orgie. ag. Use my promo code, Kevin, D.C. They'll take good care of you with a cash bonus on your initial deposit. Two college bowl games in the smell test on this Friday after it started last night with a loser in the NFL. So I'm 0-1 to start the week. One, two, and two last week, 78, 75, and 6.

overall, I think? Seven. Seven pushes this year. 78, 75, and seven after a one, two and two weekend last weekend, which really was painful. How the Vikings blew a two-touchdown lead, ended up pushing that one, had the Bears with a two-score lead, ended up pushing that game. The only winner was the Panthers who won outright over Atlanta. Washington had a chance for a late backdoor cover, didn't get it done. The Steelers weren't really close. Had them last week, although they were up 13-0-0 in that game against the Colts. All right, let's get started. Two bowl games over the weekend.

We'll start with the 76 Birmingham Bowl. The 76 Birmingham Bowl features Duke and Troy. Troy went 11 and 2 this year, Sun Belt Champions. They lost their head coach as non-power-5 schools who do really well like Troy did this year, usually lose their head coaches. Duke also lost Mike Elko to Texas A&M. They went 7 and 5. Duke's got more opt-outs in this game. Troy's a 7-point favorite. That's a lot against a Duke team that is getting a ton of public action. I think Duke was highlighted enough this year for the public to believe that them getting 7 points is some sort of a bargain. I'll take Troy and lay the 7 in the 76

Birmingham Bowl tomorrow at noon. In the 68 Ventures Bowl played in Mobile, Alabama, tomorrow night, 7 p.m. Eastern between two six and six teams, South Alabama and Eastern Michigan. South Alabama's never won a bowl game. South Alabama's quarterback is questionable. South Alabama's best playmaker on offense, their receiver who's caught 91 balls for over 1,300 yards. is out. And yet, South Alabama, the Jags, are 17-point favorites over Eastern Michigan in the 68 Ventures Bowl and Mobile. Seems like a lot, doesn't it? The public thinks it's too many points. They're taking the dog. I'll take the favorite. South Alabama minus 17. So there are your two bowl games for the weekend. Troy minus 7, South Alabama minus 17. Let's go to

the NFL. The Saints are already a loser, so I am 0-1 on the week. Tomorrow, the doubleheader Cincinnati, Pittsburgh Buffalo Chargers, there is a lot of public action on Cincinnati. There's also sharp action on Cincinnati, so I am staying off Pittsburgh. I also didn't want to play Pittsburgh for a second straight week on a Saturday game getting two and a half or three, even though this one is at home. I kind of like Pittsburgh tomorrow, but it doesn't fit exactly. I think a lot of you are expecting me to give the Steelers out. I am not.

The Chargers are a bit of a play tomorrow night at home with Easton Stick, plus the big number against Buffalo. The public money is definitely on Buffalo at this point. So I will take the Chargers right now. There are some plus 13s out there. I'll take the Chargers plus 13. I know, painful as hell. But sorry, got to do it.

Fits the overall profile for a smell test pick. Let's go to Sunday. The Vikings are a major anti-public play. The public loves the Lions, laying a short three on the road against a team that is really struggled here in recent weeks. The Vikings are nasty defensively. I'll take the Vikings for a second straight week plus the three. The Falcons are now up to two and a half point favorites. over the Colts. They're at home. There are 6 and 18. The Colts are 8 and 6.

And Atlanta's favored. It doesn't surprise me that the game would be right around a pick. The fact that they're minus 2 and a half is a surprise. It seems to be a surprise to public betters as well. They're taking the Colts. I'll take the Falcons. Hate to do this to you again, although it's worked out two out of the last three times, but the Panthers plus four and a half at home against the Packers on Sunday is right. Guess what, Dallas fans? I'm going to jinx you again. I don't think I've been right on Dallas all year,

but the public loves Miami laying what's perceived to be a short-numbered home against a Dallas team that has struggled mightily on the road this year. Miami, just a one-and-a-half-point favorite. There's public action on Miami. There is some sharp action on Dallas. I like the Cowboys plus the one. and a half. And then Christmas Eve night, give me the Patriots buying the half point plus seven at Denver. I know I've had the Patriots too many times, but they are a side that every bookmaker

on the planet will need. Nothing on Christmas Day really, you know, gets into a smell test pick profile, kind of like the Chiefs a little bit laying the big number. at home against the Raiders, but not an official pick. So, recapping, Bull games, Troy minus 7, South Alabama, minus 17. NFL, tomorrow we go with, it's actually tomorrow night, the Chargers plus 13, Sunday, the Vikings plus three, the Falcons minus two and a half, the Panthers plus four and a half, the Cowboys plus one and a half, and the Pats buying the half, the half point, excuse me, plus seven.

in Denver on Christmas Eve night. Good luck. Happy holidays. Merry Christmas to all of you. Really appreciate all of the support, all of you that listen during the course of the year. Have a really good holiday weekend, hopefully with family and friends. I will be back with a podcast more likely than not on Tuesday with at that point the recap of the Jets-Washington game and anything else that comes out of that one. There will not be a podcast on Sunday or Monday, unless I guess there is a major breaking news story related to the team.

And then I'll try to get in here and do something real quickly. If not, until early next week, again, Merry Christmas, happy holidays. Appreciate all of the support all year long.