The Kevin Sheehan Show - Are Commanders Worth More w/Rodgers?

Episode Date: January 25, 2023

Kevin today playing hypothetical sports-talk with his thoughts on why Aaron Rodgers to Washington might make Dan Snyder's team worth even more. Ben Standig was a guest talking Commanders' OC search, QB, and more. J.I. Halsell (salary cap expert/NFL agent) jumped on to talk Rodgers trade possibilities, Derrick Carr, and Lamar Jackson.  LinkedIn Jobs helps you find the qualified candidates you want to talk to, faster. Post your job for free at linkedin.com/kevindc Cancel unwanted subscriptions – and manage your expenses the easy way – by going to rocketmoney.com/kevindc Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it, but you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheehan Show. Here's Kevin. If they felt like it was in the best interest of the team to move forward, so be it. You know, that doesn't, again, that doesn't, that wouldn't offend me. They wouldn't, you know, make me feel like a victim.

I wouldn't, I wouldn't have any animosity towards the team. I love the team. I love the organization. I love the city. I love the region. You know, I'm a minority owner in the bucks. Like, I'm going to be a part of the region long after I'm done playing. I have a lot of love for what's going on in Green Bay.

That was Aaron Rogers yesterday on his weekly appearance on the Pat McAfee show in response to if Green Bay decided to move on and trade him. He wouldn't be opposed to it. He wouldn't be offended by it. In fact, that was just a short snippet of a longer interview where he even talked about reworking his contract to make a deal much more palatable for the team that would be acquiring him and the team. his own team currently, the Packers, in trading him. So that was a big conversation on the Pat McAfee show yesterday. So why was it a conversation on the Pat McAfee show yesterday? Well, because there were two different reports, one from Adam Schefter and one from Ian Rappaport.

Shefter over the weekend reported that there's a very real possibility Rogers will be traded this offseason, provided Green Bay can find a taker for his massive contract. He's due $60,0.59.5 million next year. Nobody's going to pay that. But he mentioned to McAfee he'd be willing to rework his contract. Schaefter, by the way, also did mention that AFC teams would be the preference for Green Bay. So there is that. Rappaport then followed up yesterday on that same Pat McAfee show,

reiterating what Schefter had reported saying a trade is a possibility. So Aaron Rogers being traded from Green Bay is now, in my mind's eye, more of a possibility than it was a few days ago. I will predict right now that Aaron Rogers plays for Green Bay next year. That's my prediction. However, the fact that they would be willing, he would be willing, excuse me, to rework his contract, restructure his contract, to make it easier for, Green Bay to move on from him and for him to land with another team, it changes the scope of things

because I don't think anybody would acquire him and pay him $60 million next year. And I don't think the Packers would take a $40 million plus dead cap hit next year to deal him. I think there's going to have to be a restructuring so it's less painful on both sides if there's going to be a trade. The fact that he's open to it, so now let's talk about what came to my mind. mind yesterday afternoon after hearing the Rogers interview with Pat McAfee and then the follow-up with Rappaport and Schefter, which I did not know about when we were doing the podcast yesterday. So I had this thought.

First of all, in a normal environment, I'd be all in for Aaron Rogers. I don't buy any of the bullshit of him being a declining player. I think the team wasn't good last year around him. I think if they had had Devante Adams, I think they would have won 11. 12 games. They would have been in the postseason, and he would have been an MVP candidate. That's what I think. You know, he won 39 games in 2019, 2020, and 2021, and was an MVP of the league twice. Last year, they had all new players as receivers, and it took a while, and they still nearly made the postseason. He did not have his best year. You know, 3,700 passing yards, 65.000.

percent completion percentage, 26 touchdowns, you know, 12 picks. And there were a couple of games when I watched him where if some of you do believe he's in decline, I would say, yeah, that's a pretty good example to use. He looked awful against the Detroit Lions on the road when he threw like three interceptions in the red zone, a couple of them in goal-to-goal situations. Personally, though, I don't think Aaron Rogers has declined significantly. I still think Aaron Rogers is one of the best five quarterbacks in the NFL. I think Aaron Rogers in the NFC on a better team, we'd still think of him as the best quarterback in the NFC. I don't see Aaron Rogers in major declines skill-wise. I don't. Some of you may completely discount what I'm going to say because you believe that to be true.

But here's what I started to think about. And indulge me because I do understand this is a bit of sports talk, you know, hypothetical sports talk fantasy. Because I do think Aaron Rogers will end up playing in Green Bay next year. And I think if he is traded, it won't be to Washington. But what I thought about yesterday was this. Would having Aaron Rogers as a Washington commander actually increase the value of what Dan Snyder is selling his franchise? Would Aaron Rogers as a Washington Commander, allow Dan Snyder to get more for the team. Because one of the things that would happen immediately is Bank of America would have to say to those that have bid on the team, hey, that prospectus that we gave you that included that

three to five year budget forecast and revenue forecast. Yeah, take that out. We've got a new one that we have to provide to you. I don't know how these NFL teams are sold. You know, it's so little supply, so much demand. You know, in a lot of sales, there's some sort of industry multiple, and it's, you know, you end up paying basically a multiple of revenue or a multiple of EBTA or there's, there's a formula. I don't think NFL teams are sold that way. But there is still, I guarantee you, in that prospectus, you know, a revenue forecast,

a three to five year budget forecast, maybe more, I don't know. I haven't seen the prospectus. I would love to see it. So any of you that work for Bank of America that listen to this show that may have access to it, reach out to me, and I promise you, I won't tell anybody that I was able to read it. But the point being, would Aaron Rogers increase the value of the franchise that Dan Snyder is selling? I don't know, but I do know this. The revenue forecast would change.

If you traded for Aaron Rogers, there would be an immediate, increase in revenue for the franchise. Tickets and then everything off of that, parking, concessions, etc. It would be the best ticket selling period since RG3 in 2012. Like they would actually be selling tickets at a rapid pace. The combination of Aaron Rogers and Dan Snyder leaving would excite a lot of people, there would be massive renewed interest in buying tickets for a team that's had a very difficult time selling them. You would have $62,000 in change for all of your home games next year. And it would be a lot of Washington fans in that crowd next year. By the way, how about sponsorship revenue? You don't think sponsors that are out there somewhat interested, but are waiting to see, you know,

what happens with Snyder and you don't think Aaron Rogers would move that needle. So again, I don't know how the math would work on valuation increase, but having Aaron Rogers in this organization would mean a couple of things that would excite all of us. Immediate contender in the NFC, probably a top two to three favorite next year with the Eagles and the Niners in the NFC. because of the team that he would be joining. Excellent defense. Sure, they need to add some offensive linemen, but now it's less important because you have a real quarterback. The weaponry

that he would have, so much different than Green Bay. Imagine Terry McLaren as the number one with Aaron Rogers. Aaron Rogers, if he had been the quarterback for this team this year, I had Ian, one of my longtime callers. I said, well, what do you think the record would be next year? and he said 9, 7 and 1. 9 7 and 1, they were 8, 8 and 1 this year. If they had Aaron Rogers as their quarterback this year, do you think they would have been 9, 7, and 1? Come on.

The games they lost, so many of them were close. They would have beaten the Giants once. They would have beaten Cleveland. They would have beaten Minnesota. They lost by 3 to the Vikings at home. That's three wins right there that Aaron Rogers would have given you. That's 11, 5, and 1. You're an immediate contender next year in the NFC.

You are one of the top three favorites to win the NFC championship going into next year. You know, if you bring back the majority, the significant majority of what you had last year, and then you add Aaron Rogers to that. Imagine the team's profile next year. You know, jerseys, national TV games. I mean, when the schedule comes out in May, if Aaron Rogers is the quarterback, you can book Thanksgiving in Dallas. You can book maybe the NFL season open.

the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles at home Thursday night, September 9th or whatever it would be, against Aaron Rogers and Washington. You can book two Sunday night games against the Niners and the Bills and probably a Monday night game against the Giants. Immediate contender in the NFC, immediate elevation of the team's profile, and immediate, immediate increase in revenue. The whole revenue forecast would change. overnight. And as far as Aaron Rogers goes, you're joining a program where that owner, which you would have never played for, is going. By the way, the one thought I had is if Dan acquires him, now all of a sudden he's like, well, I'm not going to leave now that I have Aaron

Rogers. Aaron Rogers and the Packers, like that one of the conditions of the trade is that Snyder continues to move forward with the sale of the team. But imagine Aaron Rogers, Aaron Rogers in, Dan Snyder out. Aaron, you get to pick your offensive coordinator, bring in Nathaniel Hackett or anybody else you want. Ron will be the CEO, Jack's the defensive coordinator. Let's go have ourselves a season for once. I know some of you would say, well, that's just not a great long-term plan. You always talk about sustained winning, and there's time for sustained winning.

How about let's immediately win if that possibility. actually exists. And then Sam Howell can be the guy behind him. And if he's not the right guy and we realize that, they can groom somebody else two years from now. You're going to get two to three years of a really good football team. And again, I do wonder whether or not Dan Snyder is somewhere going, if we were to trade for Aaron Rogers, what could I get for the team now?

I don't know. Maybe it's negligible in terms of the overall value increase. But the revenue forecast would change significantly. Significantly. Hey, the Wizards last night, before we get to Ben Standing, loved the way they played last night without Porzingis. Without Hachamura, beating Dallas last night, 127, 126. They've won three in a row.

Look, I don't want them to be, you know, the 10 seed and in a play-in situation. I'd rather they lose out and get into the Victor Wembeñana, you know, lottery sweepstakes. But I give them a lot of credit with the way they played last night against a team that hasn't been playing well, but they sweat the Mavericks. And they can score, man. They can score.

And when they're healthy, I do think the Wizards are like a 500-ish kind of team, game over, two games over, a team that would be playing in a best of seven. you know, if they were fully healthy, and Porzingis is out for a while. But good win from them. How about Georgetown? Finally, 29 game losing streak ends. They beat DePaul last night. I can't believe I didn't see that point spread. Steve Sands, Tim Murray, congrats. You guys called it, and I saw on our group text after the game had tipped what the line was. DePaul was just a one and a half point favorite. Yeah. Oh, one other quick thing too. The guy, if you recall, the guy who was the chief marketing strategist for the team, Will Misselbrook was his name. He's the latest to leave the organization. He was like chief marketing officer, chief digital, creative, whatever his title was. He was a big muckety muck in the organization. Jason Wright brought him in. He was very significant, remember, in the new,

name and the branding because he was the guy and I read this quote because it made me vomit in my mouth. He was the guy that when he was interviewed about the team name said quote, well, it's more than just a football team. If your team name is an animal, you're kind of restricted. The name commanders allowed us to go into a much bigger space, media, food, fashion, pop culture, and music, closed quote. And when I read that, I did a thing on the show. It just made me sick to my stomach that, you know, the name was picked with the idea of, well, we really want to be a brand in media and food and fashion and pop culture and music. I mean, my God, help us all. I mean, this is a guy that knew nothing about the team, had no real, you know, passion for the team, as most of the people

out there haven't. They gave us this shitty name, this shitty branding. One of the things, you know, and I had my top 10 list of things I want the new owner to be about. Number one is, I want him or her to laugh at somebody that says to them, hey, we need a name that allows us to go into media, food, fashion, pop culture, and music into a much bigger space. The only thing I want my owner to be worried about and his hires, is this person helping me win a Super Bowl? Because I want the brand of the organization to be winning Super Bowls. And then if you do that, you'll be shocked in this day and age of how you can extend that brand and all kinds of different things.

But if you're losing on the field, this is my opinion, and it could be outdated. I concede that point. Because I've heard about what the dolphins have done even before they started to win this year with Formula One racing equity, with their stadium, the Hard Rock Stadium is so user-friendly, consumer-friendly for young families with kids, and nobody really cares about winning. I don't know. I just disagree with that. I think the focus should be on winning.

And then the rest of the stuff, after you've won two or three Lombardi trophies, you can start worrying about extending the brand into fashion, music, and pop culture. Well, we should have thought about that from the beginning, and then we would have picked a better name. No, whatever the name is, it'll work if it's a winner. All right, let's get to Ben Standing right after these words from a few of our sponsors. Jumping on with me right now is my good friend, Ben Standing from the athletic. Subscribe to the athletic people. I'm a subscriber.

It doesn't cost you much. And I'm telling you, Ben and all of the writers that cover the local teams are outstanding, Ben writes a lot and writes often, and there are always little tidbits that you don't think about that are included in his stories. Like last week when he mentioned in kind of a throwaway line that Scott Turner was not on board with the Carson Wentz trade. He didn't make as big of a deal out of that as I thought he should have,

but we did last week. But definitely subscribe to the athletic, follow Ben on Twitter at Ben Standing. and listen to Ben's podcast, the same place you get this podcast. It's called Standing Room Only. So I just made a very briefcase. It wasn't a briefcase. It was a briefcase full of, I thought, very good points. On the case that you could make for Aaron Rogers,

if he's actually available for Washington to trade for him. And basically I said, look, you know, if you trade for him, you become an instant NFC contender. This team with Aaron Rogers this year, even Aaron Rogers with the way he played in Green Bay this year, I think would have won 10 or 11 games. There would have been at least a two to three game difference, if not more. You can point to all those close games that they lost and, you know, may not have been as close in some of the games that they won. you'd have immediate profile enhancement. You'd be on national TV a bunch next year.

But more importantly, you'd have season ticket sales, sponsorships, and a whole new life given to the business of the team if Aaron Rogers was traded for. And even though it would be costly for the new owner once he acquires the team, because Dan's not going to have to put any money down. All the guaranteed money and signing money has already happened. and Rogers will have reworked his contract to get out of Green Bay to begin with. I think that there's actually a case that could be made for making that move.

On ESPN yesterday, Dominic Foxworth said he's got Green Bay is one and Washington is two in his likely destinations for Aaron Rogers next year. What do you think? Well, I'll get to the compelling part of what you're saying. But tell me if I'm wrong, did I not see a report that that Green Bay would not consider trading him to an NFC team or am I dreaming that? Adam Schaefter did imply that Green Bay would likely not trade him to an NFC team. That's correct. Okay.

So what's interesting, so here's what's interesting, right? You know, I was hearing Ron Rivera last year made a big play to get a quarterback because, you know, you've got to have one in this week. the irony, you mentioned the budget component of this as to why Washington is probably not going to make that kind of move. But ironically, this is the year to actually really go for, because if you look at the NFC, as we discussed all year, the quarterback are not compelling at all. I mean, other than, like, is what you're going to hurt to, obviously, this is his breakout year, I guess would be the view of, like, the top quarterback. especially from like a, you know,

with, you know, a potential standpoint. It's still growing where I'm like Rogers and Brady, you know, it's opposite on the backside of their career. And then if you said, who's number two after Hertz? I mean, I don't even know. Mike still be Rogers considering who he is, but, like, it is really a bleak group. And, you know, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott,

they're not going to have as many Packers after these playoffs. So that would actually be, you know, if you could get Rogers hypothetically for Washington with the playmakers they have, with the defense they have. I mean, I really do think they would be, they would shoot up the list of contenders. You know, all that said, you know, he doesn't have no trade clause, but obviously he has a lot of sway. And, you know, for all the same reasons, we're saying offensive coordinators would probably be not be, offensive coordinators of options would probably not be true to come here.

I would think the same would apply for Aaron Rogers. But, yeah, I mean, I, I, not only going to be. So I understand your point. I think you can make a really compelling case. They should be aggressive simply because of where the NFC right now is with quarterback. Well, I think Aaron Rogers is the best quarterback in the NFC. I mean, I would not put Jalen Hertz ahead of Aaron Rogers. Like, I understand that people want to point to the fact that this was the worst year of his career recently anyway.

26 touchdowns over 12 picks, 3,695 yards, 65 percent. completion percentage. You know, it's still a pretty good year for many quarterbacks. But if he had Devante Adams this year in Green Bay, they would have won 11 or 12 games. They would have had a chance to go deep into the postseason, and he would have likely been an MVP candidate again. I mean, they took away everything from him. They had a bad team around him. I mean, I made the case. If he played in Washington, as I mentioned, they would have won 10 or 11 games. If he played in New York with the Jets, which is one of those teams where he could get dealt to, that team this year would have won 10 games.

They had so many close losses with horrific quarterback play. Horrific quarterback play. I think in the NFC, if people are predicting that he's going to fall off a cliff, so be it at 39 years old. Maybe you have some vision that others don't, or maybe you saw something, and at times he was sloppy this year. But I think it was more about what he had around him, not him. I could see Hern Rogers getting right back into that MVP mix, best quarterback conversation with a team like what Washington has around him next year.

But yeah, I mean, the NFC landscape, you know, adds more fuel to that, although I think it's so hard to predict year in and year out, you know, Like, we never thought the NFC. We thought the NFC East was going to stink this year. It was the best division in football, top to bottom. You know, I, we, you know, Tampa was picked to, to potentially make a Super Bowl run. Green Bay was, you know, so I don't know. But yes, no, I get your point.

Well, that's, from a quarterback standpoint. Yeah, yeah, I mean, yeah, it's like when we talk with the guys in the AFC, like we all the praise for Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, you know, I mean, like, Mahomes and Burr, I think, you know, already there in terms of where they are. But like these other guys, we're pointing to how impressive they are, but like if we said right now who are the best quarterback, like

they're, you're what, I would probably say Rogers is ahead of them, but they're still progressing with Rogers at a minimum that's going down somewhat, right? I mean, that's just the fact because of the, of the age and whatever. And honestly, even just him being constantly sweating to quit is a pain in the butt. You know, like, you constantly have to have that

aspect of it overall, and then he's going to say stuff. I mean, I'm a big Aaron Rogers fan, but, you know, but yeah, that's all I'm saying. It's like I would pick Rogers over Jaylen Hertz per se, but I'm saying, you know, from an upside standpoint, Jaylen Hertz is still ascending. But yeah, I mean, ultimately, that's what is, again, so funny to me about all of this, whether you're talking about Aaron Rogers or hypothetically Lamar Jackson got sprung free. This is the playground Dan Snyder has wanted to play in, and that will be not be not be available to them even if he wanted to yeah and um you know the lamar jackson something like that really isn't available because the amount of money that they'd have to plop down

you know upon signature of a new deal i don't think he's going to do that i don't think he's going to put that money into escrow whereas the rogers would have you know theoretically would come here with a rework deal already um i don't know uh it's a fantasy people okay i said that before it's hypothetical The thing is, though, I don't understand for the life of me those of you that would rather proceed with Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissette next year and build up offensive line, you know, linebacker, et cetera, depth and, you know, hope that it's Howell that ends up being the next franchise quarterback. Or if he isn't, you're going to stink bad enough that you can take Caleb Williams next year. Now, if you told me I get a chance at Caleb Williams or Aaron Rogers for the last two to three years of his productive career, I might take the swing on Caleb Williams or Drake May next year. But, you know, even that is not as solid as Aaron Rogers coming here and giving you a chance to advance deep into the NFC postseason next year.

And the year after more likely than not. So that would be the burden hand for sure. But then again, who knows? maybe Sam Howell is the answer. We'll get to quarterback here in a moment. What are you hearing? What are you thinking as far as the latest on the offensive coordinator search? Well, I mean, just to tie these two things together a little bit to what you said.

You know, if I was a fan, I might say, look, I get the reason for, say, wanting to Aaron Rogers. It would obviously cost a lot of assets. But is it going to matter with the current coaching staff? Like, oh, is this coaching staff, do you have to be? have enough confidence that even with Rogers, they would be able to put you over the top. I think that obviously would have to be a question, right? And, you know, who also is in that? I wouldn't, I wouldn't have a question about that. I'd tell Aaron Rogers you get to bring whichever you go out and hire the offensive coordinator. Literally tell us who you want for the

offensive coordinator. Let Ron be the CEO, let Jack coach the defense, we're good to go. Sure. I mean, and look, Nathaniel Hackett's out there, right? That's obviously Rogers is guys. So that could make sense for sure. But, you know, again, you know, Ron Rivera's track record is three winning seasons in 12 years. He did have the highs of, you know, making the Super Bowl. But, like, that to me, would be at least part of it. And then we still don't even know if he would be the coach beyond this season.

And that's where the, you know, the OEC situation comes into play. Obviously, it is something that is on the minds of potential candidates as they're eye in this job. I don't have any necessarily big changes in reporting to give you in terms of specific people. I just think it still comes down to the same

dynamic of the five candidates they have interviewed. Two have experience as an O.C. Three do not. Regardless of whether the three that don't have compelling cases, they're really interesting, innovative, whatever, I just can't

comprehend that Rivera's going to go with somebody who doesn't have that experience, both based on his track record of hires, but also the situation. Another losing season, you know, pretty hard to say he's going to come back, even if somehow there wasn't an ownership change, the fact that there, you know, it looks like there will be an ownership change, we think, perhaps. And, you know, that makes it even less likely because the new person would surely want to bring in their own voice.

So I just feels like all these things being equal, it would be somebody who has experience, which would mean Pat Shermer or Ken Dampese, and that's where I would put my money down on one of those two guys. Yeah, I feel the same way. And, you know, on the Aaron Rogers thing, I think it's a super long shot, even though I think if things were normal here, meaning like the new owner was already in place, this might be, you know, this wouldn't be an unattractive place to come to from a raw. standpoint. You know, part of two, what I said was, Ben, it might excite Dan so much. They may decide, no, no, no, I brought you Aaron Rogers. I'm sticking around for Aaron Rogers.

But anyway, I agree with you on the O.C thing. I think it feels like Ken Zampezi or Pat Shermer as well. And to be honest with you, I think it feels more like Ken Zampizi. And the only reason I say that is Kooley had mentioned something to me the other day. And he said, you know, with Zampi, they don't have to change any of the terminology or anything that he learned, that Howell learned in his first year. But then again, I mean, what are we getting? Are we just getting Scott Turner, an extension of Scott Turner? I don't know if Zampezee would be different. Do you have any idea if Zampezee would be different than Scott Turner? I don't know definitively. I guess one way he could be different would be, how do I say this

nicely. It felt at times that Scott Turner was trying to show how smart and creative he was, and maybe Zampi would be more in line to say this is what the team wants to do, this is what the coach wants to do, we're going, so we'll just do this now. Of course, Zampi's has the OC experience from his time with the Bengals. That didn't go so well. He was out in his second year at the OC after having been there for many years as the quarterback coach. So, yeah, I, I, look, I see, what is Rivera's track record with bringing an assistance based on here, right? Almost everybody on the staff was with him previously in Carolina. Now, he does know Shermer from back in the day, but it is really back in the day

because it's a long time ago they were with Andy Reed staff, whereas Ampezee is here. And, you know, that would, like you just said, it would make life a lot easier, presumably for Sam Howe and for everybody on the offense to just, okay, well, same terminology, same basic principles, but this guy is now calling the plays. I mean, I could absolutely see that being the move here for Rivera. We're entering into one of the most exciting times in the last quarter century as fans slash observers of this team. And we could also simultaneously be, you know, entering into one of the more boarders.

boring off seasons football-wise and maybe a dreadful season next year. The exciting part is the fact that Snyder is more likely than not gone celebration, and we'll take two bad seasons in exchange for that. But really, this off-season is shaping up, unless they were to look at and view Aaron Rogers as a value, you know, a value enhancement prior to the sale. like they could jack the price up with all the season tickets that would be purchased and sponsorships that would be in. But assume they're not going to follow that advice.

We're shaping up for a really boring off season, aren't we? It certainly appears that way. You know, I mean, I guess, you know, in what the 2021 off season was, you know, exciting in the sense that there were like three different pieces that were added of some note, William Jackson, Curtis Samuel, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. But obviously the first year under-Rivera was largely sort of these under-the-radar free agents. I mean, there was the excitement of the number two pick, of course. And last year, I know excitement may not be the right word,

but there was a lot of questions about, you know, a lot of intrigue instead of what they would do at quarterback. And, you know, they did make a big, a splashy move to go get wins. But, yeah, they haven't done a ton, but this feels like it could be even less than that. They're fronting Sam Howell as a starter, meaning at a minimum they won't draft somebody high. And, you know, if they keep their on pain, that's going to pretty much eat up the money.

If they don't keep their own pain, you're probably looking at spending money on the offensive line. It's very, very important, but hardly sexy or anything. So, yeah, this could be a pretty quiet situation, especially with the Dan Snyder factor. You know, we talked about the budget stuff. You know, he's got to put money. You know, if you sign guys the guaranteed contracts,

money's got to go into escrow to cover that guaranteed money, and that becomes a more complicated situation the higher the money is. So, yeah, all the way around, it could very well be a quiet off the evening. Not to mention, and I was just looking at this, Mel Kiper just put out his, I guess, first, mock draft. Is this his first mock draft of the year? I don't know. But he's got basically every quarterback

gone by the ninth pick. He's got Stroud and Young and Levis and Richardson all going in the top 10. So by the time you get to 16, you're basically looking at, you know, a few big time offensive

linemen and a few big time corners that'll be available. Not that they don't need that. And I mean, I'd advocate for that. but just adding to, you know, the lack of excitement for some anyway in the, you know, will there be a quarterback at 16? You know, will Anthony Richardson fall to 16 and should they be interested? Like that, I can see being a conversation if he starts to fall,

but it certainly seems like Anthony Richardson is climbing, not falling, but we've got a lot of time between now and the draft. Speaking of the draft, you're going to the senior. you're going to Mobile next week. Who will they have down there? And do you think it's possible that the O.C. candidate gets picked before next week. So that may be the O.C. candidate, you know, along with Jack Del Rio and Ron Rivera and the scouts all have input and maybe are all down there for it. Yeah.

So last year, basically everybody you would think that would go from the coaching staff, the front office was there except for Rivera. I don't know definitively if he's going, but I'm not positive that he is going this time either. Yeah, the OC thing, I mean, if you had asked me, you know, a week or two ago, what's the timeframe for this hire? I would say, well, I would guess they would want somebody in play there, you know, to be there by, for the senior ball, because you want their view. And also you want everybody to be looking at it.

from here's the type of players we're looking to add on offense. We want, you know, zone blocking line men, or what kind of tight ends are we looking at, or whatever it might be. So, yeah, you would think that would be the case. But where we are right now, it doesn't seem like that's going to be the case. I would imagine they're going to interview more than the five they had. There are obviously teams still in the playoffs. They could be waiting out something there.

But, yeah, I mean, at this point, we're talking, what is today? Tuesday, no Wednesday. It doesn't seem like we're on the verge of Baha'er, so I would guess there won't be an O-C down there, but you know, you never know. So I was reading your column in The Athletic from the other day, the one titled, Commanders' actions must match words,

whether offense goes run first or not. First of all, you want to tell everybody what you mean by that? Well, I mean, you know, everybody got, you know, worked up over whatever run. Rivera and Martin A. He were saying at their press end of the season press conference about this being a their philosophy is to be

run first or run heavy. Again, not the two to one ratio that was overstated, but like the just that that that notion. But and they're saying this wasn't a new idea. This is what they've been doing, but yet so many of their actions last off season just

simply did not match that mindset. You know, they may have been picking picking or signing the best player they thought was available but not necessarily items that matched that mentality.

So regardless of whether any of us think that's what they should be doing based on just where the league is right now and also based on personnel, if they're really going to do this, they need to go do this. And to the point of the offensive of the offensive coordinator conversation, you know,

I don't know what like a Greg Roman's options are, the now X-Rae Haven's offensive coordinator, but based on his track record where his teams, in his 10 years of being an O.C. for three different organizations, they have been always ranked in the top five or ten in rush attempts and the rush yards. Absolutely somebody should be knocking on the door to say, hey, come talk to us. And it's not come do this job just for that reason. And it's not enough just to say you want to do something. go do it.

Make it so there's no qualms about it. That includes, of course, the offensive line, which is something they did, you know, a poor job of last year in assembling it. That was my view even before the season started. So, you know, if whatever their plan is, they need to go, you know, make moves that are with it, not just make random moves to fill out the situation.

It's sort of like the Williams-Jackson. deal. They wanted a really good corner, but then took a guy who clearly was not a fit for what they were trying to do. Like, what are you trying to accomplish and then go find the pieces that do that, not just go find players that may be good, but don't do what you need them to do. Yeah, I mean, last year's offseason certainly didn't match the formula that they mentioned seven times during that press conference. I'm with you on that. Two more things for you. Number one is with that in mind, you wrote something in your column the other day that I actually mentioned, I think, to Cooley at the end of last week when we were talking about this run first thing. And I said, you know, how thrilled would Terry McLaren and Jahan Dotson feel about, you know, another 77 and 37 catches or whatever Dotson's were?

And he said, well, you know, they need a quarterback first and running game could set it up and Terry could be a part. of the running game and whatever. And then I said to him, you know, if they really are serious about this, they really don't need Curtis Samuel. And you wrote about the possibility of moving on from Curtis Samuel. Well, yeah, I mean, if you're just looking at like what players could potentially be released from a cap hit perspective, Curtis Samuel would certainly be one of them. You know, it would be a pretty good chunk of San Jay would be saving. I want to say, I don't have it in front of the apologies, but it's like, is it like, I think it's like 13 million caps or like, it would generate 5.8 million in actual cap space if they released them.

Right. So, right. So, I mean, like, you know, at a very, I understand you can run out of three receivers sets and, you know, you can do some lot of creative things. But in general, you need your receivers to block and those three receivers, you know, they're all pretty small, relatively speaking. And if you're going with like two tight-end sets, well, that means one of those receivers isn't on the field, right? And that seems like not a great move, but you would think two tight-end sets could be something you'd want to do more of

if you're going to be this run for a team. So, you know, to all that point, like it would make some sense to move on from Samuel. Again, they're really going to lean into this. Now, I'm not suggesting that's what they're going to do. not heard that or anything along those lines, but that's sort of, yeah, sort of the point. If you're really doing this, then what is, what do you really need those three receivers? You know, if I say hypothetically Cam Sims, who's a much bigger guy with one of those three,

which he's not, that might be a little bit different because he's a, you know, big guy blocks all that. But these three guys, you know, they might be willing blockers, but that's not, none of their, none of their foretays. All right. Here we are in January 25th. Give me the top two quarterbacks on the roster when we get to training camp. Well, okay, you tell me, you mentioned Shermer, Zampizi. Who's the offensive coordinator, pick one? I'll pick Zampizi.

All right. Well, then I'll go Andy Dalton as the other quarterback. He's a free agent. After this year, they worked together in Cincinnati. You know, obviously it didn't go that great in Dalton. didn't particularly play well, but they have a, you know, they have history, you know, the Van Peezy was at the Baltimore, the wedding, et cetera, et cetera. So to me, you know, look, I mean, maybe Donald stays in New Orleans.

He didn't play. He played a pretty decent year. But if he actually does spring free, I think that would make sense. And, you know, as much as I think Sam Howard is interesting, I just don't buy that Ron Rivera thinking, I'm going to go into this year where I really need to win. and I'm going to do it with a guy with one career start. I just don't buy. I just find that hard to believe.

And Dalton last year only cost, I think his salary was like $3 million. He's clearly, you know, he's solid, but he's not viewed as anybody like must-have starter. So, you know, that would be my... They would have won more games. They would have won more games this year with Andy Dalton, a quarterback, in my opinion. Yeah. Yeah, I agree. That was the one thing about Hal's last game is that, you know, obviously he lacked the experience,

but it just saw like the orphans looked more normal because the other two guys, it was just always just a constant fire drill one way or the other. And I think Dalton would give you some of that as well. Look, he's an older guy, not exactly a guy is going to make, you know, plays on the move. But, you know, if this is what we're talking about, I think that would make, that would make some sense for it to me. So Hal and Dalton, if Shermer were the guy, would you have said Keenham and Dalton, Keenan and Hal? Keenham and Hell? Because Keenham was coached by Sherman in Minnesota? Yeah, I didn't really have. I was hoping you were going to say anything at P because I had the Dalton thing.

I don't know about the Shermer one, but at that point, you know, maybe just be, you know, whether it's Dalton or Jacoby Preset or some of the other kind of obvious names that are out there at that level. Keenan, boy, that would be a rough one, I would think. All right, thanks for doing this. I appreciate it. Yeah, man. Ben Standing, everybody. Up next, J.I. Hallsell, my good friend who is an agent and also used to be the salary cap analyst for the Washington Redskins some 15 years ago or so. We'll talk about how the Packers would actually go about trading Aaron Rogers. I'll ask him about Derek Carr, Lamar Jackson, and maybe if you're not.

few other things as well. That's next right after these words from a few of our sponsors. This final segment of the show brought you by MyBooky, go to mybooky.orgie. Go to mybooky. com. Kevin D.C., they'll match your first deposit, dollar for dollar, all the way up to a thousand bucks. I mean, it's really amazing to watch this point spread move around the way it's been moving around. Cincinnati right now, now back to a one-point favorite. They were two-point favorite yesterday. Started as a two-point dog. The whole Mahomes question right now is a big thing in the betting community with respect to this game because a high ankle sprain is a high ankle sprain. Those things don't heal quickly. And there's definitely some sharp money on Cincinnati.

But then they bought it back a little bit to one and a half. I see some ones out there at MyBooky and other places. Philly still at minus two and a half. Go to MyBooky.ag. Use my promo code, Kevin D.C., and they'll double your first deposit all the way up to a thousand bucks. All right, joining me to finish up the show today is my good friend, J.I. Hallsell, J.I., former cap analyst for the Washington Redskins, a current NFL agent. You can follow J.I. on Twitter at Salary Cap 101. He's a salary cap expert. And I opened the show today, J.I.

And I have not prepared you for this. other than to ask you in advance to be able to explain how the Packers would trade Aaron Rogers and then maybe to talk about Derek Carr's contract a little bit. But I opened this show today by saying, look, it now appears as if you believe the reporting, Rappaport, if you believe even Aaron Rogers on the Pat McAfee show yesterday, that there's a possibility the Packers will try to trade Aaron Rogers. And I made the case that if you were Washington, if you were Dan Snyder and you traded for Aaron Rogers, the value of your organization would actually be enhanced.

You know, you'd have an influx of season ticket purchases, of sponsorships. The whole perception of the franchise would change overnight. You'd be a contender. You know, you'd be a top two to three odds-on contender to win the NFC next year. Because Washington's roster, J.I, I don't know how much you followed it, is a pretty good roster. They've got an excellent defense. But, you know, I don't expect it to happen.

I'm just, I was making the case that you could actually potentially increase the valuation of the franchise in the process of selling it. I mean, Bank of America might have to put out a new updated prospectus to say, hey, you know, our revenues for next year are much, our projections for revenues next year and the year after are much higher than we had put out in the original book. So anyway, what is the real likelihood of Aaron Rogers being traded A and B, how would they? go about doing that with all of that dead cap money and by the way 60 million dollars next year in cash output by the team that has him yep yeah no from a pure cap management standpoint if you trade him before june's first um your the dead money number is actually higher than his current cap number so his current cap number is 31.6 million if you trade them it becomes 40.3 so you're actually giving up $8.7 million in cap space.

Now, that being said, mechanically, if you were to trade him, you would have to do it in a way where the acquiring team has to take on some of his guaranteed salary, if not all of it, which they did structure the contract in a way where a big chunk of his compensation next year, $58 million, comes in an option bonus, right? And that option doesn't need to be exercised until the windows, like the start of free agency to the first day or the first regular season game. So you could trade all of that money to a new team, but who's picking up the full $58 million?

Nobody. So some of that money is going to have to stay with Green Bay. That's going to be part of the negotiation in addition to the pick. So it's a long-winded way of saying that, you know, from a probability standpoint, I just don't see them trading Aaron Rodney. I agree with you, but Aaron Rogers implied that he'd be willing to tweak, and I, you know, I read into tweak meaning restructure his contract to make a trade possible. So how would that work? Yeah, no, I mean, he's supposed to make $59.5 million in cash in 2023.

My sense is he's not giving up any amount of 59.5. Maybe he's willing to tweak the deal. that, you know, he has a greater likelihood of going to a new team by restructuring the guarantee. So some of the guarantee stays with the Packers and his new team, as I mentioned before, isn't picking up the full $58 million option bonus. Maybe he's willing to tweak it that way. But my sense is he's going to make his 59 and a half in 2023 in some form of fashion. He may be willing to restructure, though, to enhance the likelihood of a trade.

is what I hear. I just can't imagine from my standpoint, if I'm Green Bay, after giving him the deal last year, three years, you know, in aggregate, $150 million or whatever it was, moving on from him after one year and taking, you said a $40 million dead cap hit, I'm looking at SpotRack. It says that it's a $99 million dead cap hit. So I don't know. Yeah.

Yeah. So, but if it's 40, but even 40, I mean, you're going to move on from him. and trade him and take a $40 million cap hit next year? I guess you could spread it out over two years. I mean, explain that to me. Yeah, no. So what SpotTrac is kind of incorporating in there, it's not exactly accurate is that he also has a $47 million option bonus in 2024,

but it's not truly guaranteed right now. It doesn't become guaranteed until early in the 2024 free agency or legal. But either way, his dead money number is enormous. So again, unless he's willing to redo the structure of the deal to facilitate a trade, that's the only way that happens. What's your guess on Aaron Rogers? Traded or he plays in Green Bay next year? I think he plays in Green Bay next year.

Look, he's not too far removed from back-to-back MVP, right? This year, obviously, a lot of turnover at the receiver position, so on and so forth. But, you know, if I'm the Green Bay Packers, again, he's played at a high level fairly recently. And given the cap considerations and given the cap and contract gymnastics you would have to do in order to facilitate a trade, and then potentially start Jordan Love, who, while he showed flashes this year, do you truly know what you have? my sense is could 2023 be Aaron Rogers' final year in Green Bay?

Absolutely. And then you move on in 2024 where the cap dead money isn't as pronounced as it would be this year. So I think he has at least one more year in Green Bay. I do too. That's been my guess all along. I just think that the increased conversation

the last few days was interesting. You know, especially when you hear it from Rappaport and Schaefter, you know, both reporting that, you know, This is definitely a possibility. All right, talk about Derek Carr. First of all, what do you think the compensation to trade for Derek Carr would be when we pretty much know the Raiders want to move on from him? I mean, I would imagine there's a competition for him,

but you don't think that he's just going to be released, do you? Well, you're going to have to come up with this pretty quickly here because he has 75 million that becomes truly guaranteed for skill injuring cap three days after this year's Super Bowl. So, you know, whether it's being released or agreeing to a trade, and part of that agreement says that, you know, the team that acquiring him is willing to take on all of that guaranteed money. You know, you've got to make a decision on Derek Carr very quickly here just because of the way his business. deal is structured in terms of when the money becomes guaranteed. So does that hurt

Vegas' leverage, right? Absolutely, because teams know that, look, they're going to have to make a decision on this guy here in the next, you call it week to 10 days. They obviously don't want to pay the $75 million that's going to become

guaranteed for skill, injured, and cap. So that absolutely weakens their leverage in trade negotiation. So what do you think he'll go for? If he's dealt before all that money becomes guaranteed the day after the Super Bowl, what do you think the Raiders will get back for him? Here's the thing.

I don't know that he gets dealt. It's just, you know, could you get, are you going to get a mid-round pick? I suspect you could get a mid-round pick. Are you going to get what the Seahawks got for Russell? No. It's just they have no leverage because of how they structured the conversion of his guaranteed. But you don't think he's going to play in Vegas. He's done there. No. No, he's done there. So you think a release is more likely? I don't know if it's more likely, but it's a distinct

possibility. Okay. And if he is indeed traded, I think we will be surprised by the lack of value that they get back. Right. And again, it is a function of time, right? Because his money becomes guaranteed three days after the Super Bowl. Yeah. You know, like, if the, seriously, if the Raiders get back, let's just say a third from somebody for Derek Carr, and Washington gave up, you know, a second, a third, switched spots and around,

ate the whole contract for Carson Wentz a year earlier. It's just going to make them look dumber because we knew Indianapolis was going to release him anyway. Now, I think, you know, part of it will be a team that really wants Derek Carr, won't want to see him released and then him essentially have a choice. So giving up some compensation for him to ensure that he's with you makes sense. He doesn't have a no-trai clause, does he? I don't think he does.

Oh, he does. He does. He does. He's got to be willing to go to wherever it is. Sorry, I misspoke. It's actually 40 million, a little over 40 million that becomes guaranteed on the third day of the league year. But, again, still big amount of money, right? And the full no trade clause means they even have less leverage.

Exactly. So, you know, he can limit really the scope of teams that, you know, they can engage in negotiations. And then the clock is ticking where you've got over 40 million that becomes guaranteed for skill, injury, and cap on the third day after the Super Bowl. I mean, for him, he'd much rather be released and then, you know, sit back and play the game. Sure. But at the same time, I mean, in 2023, he's supposed to make $33 million in cash. I don't know that there's a deal out there that will keep a whole at that $33 million. Yeah, good point.

One last player, much talked about. What do you think happens with Lamar Jackson? I think Lamar, let me take a step back. I think the Ravens showed with Rophan Smith that they can, negotiate in good faith with a player who is self-represented, right, or self-representing themselves. So I think they've shown that. Roquant Smith didn't have representation either? He didn't have an agent.

Correct. So, and that deal, when you look at it, how it's structured, the value of it looks, you know, it looks the part, right? And it's a good deal. So that being said, the Ravens can clearly negotiate with a player who's self-represented. For Lamar, now the question becomes, okay, it's easy to kind of dig your heels in when you're coming off of being, you know, great player, MVP, all those things. But when you're coming off of an injury, an extended injury, and maybe some of that was his

choice to make it an extended injury to try to needle the Ravens a little bit and show them how much, you know, his value is to them, you still at some point need to kind of take a step back and say, I need to shift this. injury risk to the Ravens or to a new team. And how do I do that? Well, you do that by meeting them in the middle, right? I know, you know, the Deshawn Watson fully guaranteed contract in excess of $200 billion is the shiny object.

But that's a different set of circumstances than the one Lamar finds himself in. And so, again, you know, the sooner you can shift the injury risk to a club, you know, the better off Lamar will be. So long with the way of saying, I think that if Lamar were smart, I think he would return to engaging the Ravens in discussions for a long-term deal, but be a little more open-minded

to doing a deal that, again, shifts the risk to the club, and, again, knows that the club won't take advantage of him as being a self-represent player because they've shown that with Roquant Smith. So my hope is that Lamar gets a deal down with the race. Yeah, I think it's a really tough, I've talked about this a lot.

I think it's a really tough thing from the team standpoint, too. He is a former MVP. He's won a lot of games when he's been on the field. But the last two years, you didn't make the postseason and you were ousted in the first round because he wasn't available. And the way he plays and the way you're going to continue to play him, that's a tough 185 million in guaranteed dollars

40 million a year kind of a 45 million a year kind of a deal to give a quarterback like him you know like to me Jalen Hertz I think it's going to be interesting to see Hertz

to see Burrow to see some of these upcoming deals and what they look like when you say what they look like to me I interpret that as what is the structure of the deal because to all those things that you just mentioned in terms of the risk that the Ravens even take on by doing a deal with Lamar. You can mitigate that via structure and when does the money become guaranteed? How are the cash flows? And that's what I mean by having some middle ground conversation. Right. I guess what I was thinking was more or less,

we're going to learn here, you know, in the next year whether the Deshawn Watson deal was just in aberration. Yeah, we'll learn pretty quickly. I know that the sample size of small this year in terms of when he returned to play, but it didn't look like it was at a level of fully guaranteed contract. I'll tell you that. How you've been? Everything well?

All as well, just getting ready for Super Bowl and waste management open out here in the valley in a couple weeks. That is a great combo of events. The Waste Management Open in the Super Bowl. Scottsdale will be entertaining there that week. That's for sure. As the young folks would say, it's going to be Liddy out here. No, it's going to be a great weekend.

It'll be fun. All right. Enjoy it. Thanks for doing this as always. Thanks, Kevin. J.I. Hallsell, everybody. Great dude. And, yeah, Waste Management at TPC Scottsdale, the same week as the Super Bowl.

We've been out there a couple of times for that. Super Bowls in Arizona are fun. They're a lot of fun, and that waste management is a lot of fun as well. All right, done for the day, back tomorrow with Tom.