The Kevin Sheehan Show - Bad Matchup?

Episode Date: December 11, 2020

Cooley and Kevin opened the show talking about the Rams as a legitimate Super Bowl contender after their blowout of the Patriots last night before getting to a preview of Washington-San Francisco. Cooley thinks it's a bad matchup for Washington and explained the reasons why. Additionally, both of the guys explained why the 49ers defensive numbers this year may be a bit misleading. Kevin had 8 "Smell Test" picks; Cooley had a "Lock of the Week". They both predicted the Washington-SF final score and previewed some of the big NFL games of the weekend. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it, but you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheon Show. Here's Kevin. The same ball game, that's an NFL record on second down. Newton trying to set up a screen. He's picked back the other way and down the sideline. Is Kenny Young.

He makes a move and ends up in the end zone with a pick six. And that was last night. The Rams absolutely destroyed the Patriots. New England is done, not mathematically, coolly. But they are done really for the first time since 2008. If you remember the Matt Castle year, they went 11 and 5 and missed the playoffs. At 6 and 7, their chances are pretty much slim and none. Cam Newton was an absolute mess.

There's no chance Cam Newton plays or starts on a team next year, even though Belichick said he's the starter for the rest of the year. But my big takeaway from the game last night is just how good the Rams are. And you've been on the Rams, even when they weren't super impressive. You've liked this team all year long. And they lined it up last night, and they just ran it right down New England's throat with Cam Acres. And they were awesome. I mean, their defense, we knew it was good.

but the Rams, I think, last night, announced themselves as a legitimate Super Bowl contender, if not maybe the favorite in the NFC to make the Super Bowl. Yeah, the Rams were really good. I actually text McVeigh today, and I said, you guys just looked really good right now. Their ability to run the ball on New England was awesome. My only concern with the Rams this season has been Goff when they're in trouble. It's when Goffs off.

and if they're running the ball, the way they're running the ball, it really starts to alleviate some of those concerns because their defense is really, really good. Not to say the Patriots offense is good, or that holding them to three was a massive deal, but the Rams are fast on defense. They are. They're fast on defense.

They're talented. They're smart. They play disciplined. They take advantage of their players in certain situations. It is, to me, one of the more innovative teams offensively and defensively. I mean,

they're going to be tough to beat. They are. They're also a bad matchup for Washington, in my opinion. San Francisco might be a bad matchup for Washington as well if they play similar style football. We're going to get to that in a moment because that's interesting

that you said that because I sort of have that sense too that, you know, hopefully they're more prepared, Washington is for, you know, the Shanahan style. of offense, which McVeigh runs a lot of. But I told you a couple weeks ago that Cam Acres was going to be a really good zone run scheme back.

And he's awesome. I mean, I didn't, like, I was sort of a fan of him at Florida State. He wasn't one of those running backs that I was like, oh, we got to get him. But after watching him a couple of times this year, he's the perfect fit. I mean, they have their biggest weakness is their quarterback who is prone to really playing an awful game one out of every three games. You know, that's their Achilles heel. That's exactly what it is.

And it may not be one out of every three. It may be closer to one out of every four. But for golf, it's not necessarily bad plays in games. It's having, in general, a bad game. There are games where the guy doesn't show up well. It'll benefit the Rams huge, huge, Kevin. to win that division, win a couple more games, and not have a road game somewhere cold. True.

The other thing is, is if New Orleans is going to be the one seed, that would leave the Rams potentially as a two-seat. I mean, anything could happen right now. I do think the Rams end up being the two-seat here. That would leave the Rams playing on the road in the Superdome without fans. Yeah. I mean, they've already won an NFC title game there on the, you know, missed call from a few years ago.

The Saints and the Rams didn't play this year. It'll come down to conference record, I think, as the tiebreaker. And the Saints right now have a better conference record. But they play, you know, the Saints still play the Chiefs, the Vikings. They play the Eagles this weekend, the Chiefs, the Vikings, the Panthers. So it may be that they'd have to lose one additional game other than the Chiefs with the Rams running the table for the Rams. to get the one seat. I think that's an interesting comment you made about the Rams,

you know, not playing in a cold weather game because I could see that being a problem for them. But they can run the football and their defense may be, actually I think right now in the NFC, the two best defenses are the Rams defense and the New Orleans defense. And it's not surprising that one of them has the best record and the other one right now has the third best record but could win that division. You know, the Rams do play the Seahawks in the next to last game of the year. They've already beaten them once, and that game could determine the division title. But, yeah, I don't know.

With that defense and with Aaron Donald, it seems to me that they could play anywhere. Yeah, that defense can go. They'll travel. They'll play anywhere. They'll play exceptional football anywhere. It's does gop step up and play big in a big game? Right. That's as simple as it gets.

I think that they have a real rhythm right now on offense with how they want to attack people. They've found ways to use their weapons in a huge fashion. I don't see them as a team that has that true dynamic deep threat, but they're finding ways to get Robert Woods a ton of touches. Josh Reynolds is making some plays. Cooper Cup is a good player. I think Higby is one of the better tight ends in the league

as far as being a blocking tight end and a receiving tight end. And then you have a mix in with Gerald Everett, who's a really good player at tight end who can be a one-on-one matchup guy. Look, they're a good team. They have good backs. And the defense is probably the, if not the second, the third best defense in the NFC for sure and maybe in football. You agree with me that Cam Newton is done, like in terms of ever being a legitimate starting quarterback after this season's over? Yeah, I absolutely agree with you.

I think the conversation, the important conversation, is anybody goes to New England and fails in their second chance, and that's where you consider the end. If they can't get you going, who's going to get you going? Yeah, it's amazing how much, how awful he looked throwing the football last night. I mean, that is, you know, that is another game in which he was right around 100 yards passing. He'd already had three or four of those this year. I think he ended up with 119, but at one point it was ugly.

and he was sacked, I don't know, four or five times last night. It was bad, and the pick six on the screen was just a terrible, terrible throw. It was. You know, what's funny is I want the Rams to have success, and I wanted them to win the game, but I was looking forward to a better football game to watch last night. And so that's the funny thing is it was a game I turned off, really, mid third quarter. Yeah, me too.

Because it was so obvious that the Patriots were done in that game. I was paying attention to Georgia Tech and Pitt because I gave Georgia Tech out plus seven on ESPN 3 on my computer. As I was watching that game, and it turned out to be one of those bad beats. Should have been a win at the end. All Pitt had to do was get a first down, and it was three knees, and the guy breaks it for a 39-yard touchdown run. I hate those the way they end. But you're sitting there on pins and needles because you're like, can somebody just tackle him after he gets the first down, and then it's a win? And Georgia Tech couldn't tackle anybody all night long.

It's funny, they then got down to the pit nine-yard line. There was an absolute egregious PI call in the end zone that got overlooked and didn't get flagged. But we almost got the back door there, but it was a bad beat. I've got, how many do I have? I think I've got 11 smell test picks coming up a little bit later on. You're down today? Yeah, I'm down O and 1 going into this weekend. I like the games, but it's really weird.

When you're looking through the college board, you're like, I don't know if these games, like I circled last night, I'm like, I really like Washington plus six against Oregon. Games canceled. I mean, I could end up having half these games canceled. God, college football's a mess this year. It really is. All right, we're going to take a break, and when we come back, we'll get to our keys to a Washington win over the 49ers on Sunday. Huge game Sunday in Glendale, Arizona, where the 49ers are playing their home games right now,

and a chance for Washington to put together a four-game win streak. I don't know. I think it was 2015 the last time they had a four-game win streak. Actually, I think it was early in the 2016 season when they had lost those first two games. Remember, they lost the Monday night game to Pittsburgh, and they lost the Cowboys, and I think they put together four straight wins, and they were four and two before going to London, I think it was. That was the last time this franchise won four games in a row. They won three in a row in 2018 with Alex Smith,

now a chance to win four in a row and get to six and seven. It's actually going to be an exciting day, Cooley, because you know, you've got a one o'clock game with the Giants and the Cardinals, and then 425, you know, skins and 49ers, and by 745 Eastern Time, 545 year time, Sunday evening, we're going to have a better picture of what the division looks like. It's not going to be settled by any long shot. I have a feeling, I'll just tell you right now, that both teams are going to win,

and they're both going to be sitting there at 6 and 7, and there's going to be even further discussion about how the NFC East champion, whomever it is, is going to be a dangerous team. But we'll see. Let's get to our keys to beating the 49ers. Washington beats San Francisco if, what's your number one? Well, in watching San Francisco on film and watching them over the last couple games and knowing this 49ers team, I think let's start on offense with my number one.

Alex Smith is going to have to be really good. He's going to have to find ways to manipulate the pocket. He's going to have to find ways to make plays outside of the pocket. off script. You watch that San Francisco front and they're still a up the field dynamic four down front. I mean, they can bring pressure. There's no doubt about

it. And like watching the bills game, Jared Allen made a ton of throws rolling out of the pocket. Josh Allen, yeah, he did. Josh, not Jared out. Josh Allen. Extended plays. Extending plays. And so to me, I don't know, like, I don't know how much you're

just going to get some of those timing type throws and then break tackles or make plays down the field. That's not necessarily the way the 49ers were built. You know, I think that you have to, as an offense, have an identity in this game where you're going to get some throws down the field. It's going to be huge for them. And I think a lot on that is going to be Alex Smith.

You know, what can Alex do? I look at San Francisco defensively, and I think, okay, one, this is a Gap Sound defense. They're going to try to stop the run. Okay. And they're built through a defense that can pass rush. They play really sound coverages. They don't mix up a ton of coverages, but they play sound in the back end. They want to be aggressive with some of the things that they do coming up in tackling.

But to get outside of that, you have to find ways to manipulate and beat some of those sound coverages. In saying that, it's interesting, though, Kevin, because Washington hasn't created a ton of big plays down the field. And some of their drives that they've scored on, more of the drives that they've scored on are drives where they've taken at 7, 8, 9 plays. Yeah, or more. Yeah, it's, they don't necessarily always strike me as a team that's going to be great at doing that,

but that's how they found ways to do things. I don't know. I just see San Francisco as a team that plays really sound. Sal is a good defensive coordinator. They have a physical front. They're going to get upfield. And unless Alex is just amazing with timing and they're catching. and everything and they slip a couple tackles.

I think it's a game where Alex has got to get the ball down the field. And in doing that, it might be him getting outside of the pocket, him making plays off script. You know, it's such a good point. And it's funny because I was talking about the 49er defense this morning on the radio show. And, you know, somebody reached out to me and said, dude, they've given up so many points and so many yards. It's not the defense it was from last year. You know, this defense can be had, and I'm like, you know, that's true. They've given up a lot of numbers, and we know that it's not the defense from last year.

There's no D4. There's no DeForest Buckner. There's no Nick Bosa. Hello. So they've had injuries and they lost people in the offseason. But when I've watched the 49ers, I still see a ton of team speed. You know, to me, Fred Warner has turned into a star and is really, you know, they got guys that can run. They've got that four-man front, as you talked about, that to me, looks disruptive.

I think Jimmy Ward, because I was watching a lot of that Buffalo game, and I have seen them because they've been on TV a lot. I think they, like defensively, they're still very capable. And you just pointed out the obvious reason as to why the 49ers have given up some games where they've given up big yards and big points. And the reason is, is that Russell, Wilson, Aaron Rogers, and Josh Allen are phenomenal off-schedual quarterbacks. And that's exactly what happened on Monday night. Josh Allen made most of those throws, most of those plays, or a lot of them off-schedule. You know, they weren't on schedule, and he had a brilliant night, and he was brilliant. 32 of 44 touchdowns, 375 yards. They also had the threat of running the football with

Devin Singletary. But, you know, when you look, look, Russell, and Aaron Rogers and Josh Allen are going to make good defenses look bad. So that's where sometimes you can't look at the numbers. You can't live as you're previewing a game for your team that doesn't have a great off-schedule quarterback. I mean, he's much more mobile than we thought he would be over the last couple of weeks. But it's different. It's like what we said about the Dallas game, the Thanksgiving Day game.

And I think we both agreed on this that day. and I said, you know, I've watched the Cowboys, and they're horrible at stopping the run. That's 100% true. But they're still really fast in their front seven, and they can get after the quarterback. So if you just look at rankings and you look at, you know, different statistics, instead of watching the teams, you really can be misled. You nailed it. The reason the 49ers don't have a lot of great numbers statistically is look at the quarterbacks they have faced.

They have faced Russell Wilson, Aaron Rogers, Drew Breeze, and Josh Allen. You know, and I think Breeze got hurt halfway through. I think that was the game that he got hurt in against the Saints. So that is a big part of the issue with them. By the way, Ryan Fitzpatrick, right, had that big date earlier in the season against them. What does Ryan Fitzpatrick do? I don't remember the game. I didn't see a lot of the game.

but Fitzpatrick makes a lot of plays off schedule. He makes a lot of plays off schedule, and he makes a lot of plays where he takes risks throwing the ball into tight windows downfield. Here's the thing. They're a defense that's built to rush four, drop seven, and they want to play team defense by doing that. They're going to rush four, drop seven for the most part.

It's not like they can't blitz, but that's their identity on defense is, let's rush four, let's drop seven, and let's make the offense earn everything they get. And sometimes earning things means that you have to make plays that aren't scheduled plays. You're earning things. If you look at what you're doing and attacking their identity,

can you earn five first downs by timing and rhythm throws? Or are they just going to say, we're going to count on you to have a drop here or have a botch here or have a missed assignment? They do play really sound. Yeah. I mean, that's the thing is they're going to wait on a turnover. They're going to wait on drop ball,

and they're going to try to get you into third down situation. where they believe they can get pressure on the quarterback with four. You know, I'm looking through their schedule. It's like the games in which they were really good defensively were against quarterbacks that weren't very good, you know, bottom line. They blew out Cam Newton. They've owned the Rams this year. They've got two wins over the Rams where they really shut down the Rams.

They forced turnovers. But the really good off-scheduled quarterbacks they've struggled with, which, by the way, let's just be fair about this. Most teams, including very good defenses, struggle against Aaron Rogers, Russell Wilson, and now Josh Allen, who's had some big games against some good teams because he's a terrific extend-the-play quarterback. All right, let me get to my first one. But I think that was really, you know, I was thinking about it this morning because I was talking about the 49ers defensively being a team that I thought we could have problems with in watching them. because I watched that Buffalo game, and I actually went back and watched it again, and I didn't go back and look at the rest of their schedule, but you nailed it.

It's the quarterbacks that can really extend that have given them problems. I think Washington beats San Francisco. If the defense is what we think it is and has become, because the comp for this game is the Rams game, and the Rams shredded this defense on the first three drives with just nothing but Shanahan-style football. Shanahan, Mike, Shanahan, Shanahan, Sean McVeigh, and Shanahan, Gary Kubiak, etc. They get you completely off balance. They get you flowing one way, and then they're coming back with the bootlegers. They call it the quarterback keeper, and they have people wide open at every level.

And it was not a good game against the Rams, and I could certainly see with the 49ers being healthier on offense, not with Garoppolo or Kittal back, thankfully. Although I'm not a big Garoppolo fan. But Mullins can certainly run this scheme, and they've got their backs. Mostert's back and, God, I mean, let's not forget, Mostert had a monster NFC championship game last year. And he's really good. And if they get that going, then I want to see how we've adjusted to that style of football,

because I think I made this point to you yesterday that, The last three opponents have not tried to run the football. Cincinnati didn't try to run it. Dallas didn't try to run it. And Pittsburgh really didn't try to run it. So the rush defense numbers look really good. You know, like if you're someone who just lives at looking at statistics, you're like, whoa, and the last three games, how about Washington's rush defense? Well, it's because their opponents didn't attempt to rush the football.

If you go back to the last opponent that attempted to rush the football, the Lions, they ran it. Remember, we came out of that game saying they got gashed at times by D'Andre Swift and even Adrian Peterson. And then if you recall, prior to that, the Giants at FedEx Field, they got gashed to the tune of 166 yards on the ground Wayne Gawman and Alfred Morris had. So I believe that this is a really good defense. I think this can be a really good run-stopping defense, but they haven't proved it yet against a team that has come out and said, we're going to try to be balanced at least, if not run first, because we haven't seen that since Detroit and the Giants game, and they didn't do it. So if they aren't better than what they were in those two games against teams that tried to run the football,

and really against the Rams back in early October, and that seems like two years ago now, and they haven't adjusted to that. It's going to be a very tough day defensively, and we're going to come back here on Monday, and we're going to say, oh, God, that defense was so awesome against Pittsburgh. It was so awesome against Dallas, so awesome, you know, at times against Cincinnati

in the second half against Ryan Finley. What is it really? So my number one is the defense, you know, has become and has evolved into what we think it should be, and this is going to be a really, really good, you know, I think a really good test for them. And maybe in many ways the best test for them since that first Rams game, because these are the teams that really make defenses at times look silly. Yeah, it's one of the things I love about Kyle Shanahan.

And this goes into another one of my keys. But he does believe in a full 50-50 balance between running pass in first and second down situations. I think people get skewed, and we've talked about this when you look at the numbers with run pass because you throw third down into that equation. It's what your balance is in first and second down or potential run situations, and they have balance with that. The thing I think is when you talk about stopping the run, what Kyle wants you to do is commit to stopping one of the things that they do. He wants you to commit to the keeper game or he wants you to commit to the run game or He wants you to commit to some of the run-action pass stuff.

You can't just, you have to be able to stop the run without a full commitment to it, if that makes sense. Yeah, yeah, I know. You have to be able to stop the run without saying, we're going to put eight guys in the box. Right. Because you put eight guys in the box, and they're going to shred you with some of the run-action stuff. Even Nick Mullins. I mean, and they benefit getting to play a guy like that because he's very inconsistent,

and he'll throw some bad balls. But he'll, if you've got guys wide open, because you've got. eight in the box to stop Mostert, he's going to be able to throw it to Jordan Reed. He's going to be able to throw it to Debo Samuel. He's going to be able to find people open and their big chunk plays when it happens. Yeah, they are a big chunk offense. There's no doubt about it. And it comes from even guys like Mostert breaking through to the second level and making

somebody miss or running through a tackle where you get big plays in the run game. But I think when you're playing defense against this team, you don't say, man, we've given up a couple big runs. Now, let's load the box. That's what they want you to do. You do have to play balanced defense. Yeah, that is, that's where hopefully in the future, Cooley, if they improve their linebackers and you can play, you know,

a base defense knowing you can stop the run. And by the way, if you could add a shutdown corner and force them to use half the field, I mean, that's where, you know, next year or the year after, can add just a couple of pieces to that front four, it really could develop into one of the best defenses in the NFL and maybe a dominant defense. You mean the back four? You know, yeah, I'm saying, what I'm saying is if he can get his middle linebacker and if he could get another corner.

Yeah. You know, to that defense, now you can play your four-man base, you know, defense and not have to worry about loading the box and not having to worry about, you know, leaving corners and cover it, you know, in man coverage, if you've got a really good corner. Like, there's some good corners in this draft coming up. This is going to be an interesting draft overall. But I think he's two pieces. Some would say three because they want the free safety.

I am really a DeShazer-Evert fan in so many ways. But corner and middle linebacker, right, more than anything else defensively, if they had those two things right now it could be a dominant defense. Yeah, I think Big Time Corner would help them out a lot. And I think you were hoping that Kendall Fuller was that guy. But to me, it doesn't seem like he's a shutdown corner. It seems like he's a really good compliment, too, Corner. Right.

All right. What's your next thing? We'll stay on defense because I had another, I had another one on offense, but we'll get back to that. We'll stay on defense. Look, when you have been around Kyle and you know what they're trying to do, they don't care if it's inside of, outside zone, run action, keeper, dropback, screen, whatever it is. But the common theme with any Shanahan offense is they're going to find your weaknesses.

The first thing that he's going to do is say, let's take advantage of their weaknesses. And so you better be damn well sure of what your weaknesses are. And I think if I'm Kyle right now, I'm looking at this team and I'm saying the middle of the field between 10 and 20 yards seems to be their biggest weakness. And so I would start thinking about how you're going to play defensively to help Bostick in some of those situations. How you're going to be defensively to help Cameron Curl in some of those play action situations. They're going to run the ball and they're going to try to get you to come up and at least have to fit when they go with a run action pass. But you've got to understand they are

going to attack the hell out of the middle of the field. They're going to attack Bostic. They're going to attack Kroll. They're going to attack in between the numbers on either side of the field or just throughout. That's where they're going with the football. They're going to take deep shots. There's no doubt about it, but those deep shots I would guess would be more towards the middle. And so for me, your weaknesses right now seem to be safety and linebacker, especially in the middle of the field. The key to the game is Bostic, Cameron Curl, the Shazer. They play exceptional with eyes and discipline, and they understand what they're getting and how they're being attacked, because it's going to happen. So if those three players end up playing really well in this game, you'll win the game.

Yeah, it's so true. I mean, I don't know how many. coaches are as good right now offensively as Kyle Shanahan identifying a weakness and a flaw in just killing it over and over again. For me, the next part of this is Fred Warner. Just watch number 54 for the 49ers, their linebacker. He is developed in his third or fourth year, whatever it is, into one of the best linebackers in the game. He can cover, he can stop the run, he can get after the quarterback. He can do it all. I mean, this should be his first Pro Bowl season. He's so smart. He's so quick. And one of the things I was thinking about Cooley was no Antonio Gibson more likely than not. So, you know, you're not going to be able to, it's very possible balance is not going to be an option here for Washington on

Sunday. And their version of balance against Pittsburgh is to use McKissick, you know, to use McKissick on throws behind the line of scrimmage, on swing passes, on run extension throws, on checkdowns, et cetera. I would bet you, and I think they're well coached defensively with Salad, don't you? Don't you think he does a good job? Yeah, I think he does a great job. So I would think that they're going to obviously have McLorn in their game plan, but McKissick with No Gibson is going to be a, after watching Monday night, they're going to know that Alex Smith wants to advance the ball by getting it. into McKissick's hands. And Fred Warner, they don't need a safety. They don't need a corner on

McKissick if they go empty set. They can use Fred Warner. And he is, 54 might be at times the best player on the field on Sunday. Again, we're getting back to their defense. Their numbers don't reflect what their potential is. It just doesn't. So they've got to be aware of where he is. He can change a game. And I'm concerned a little bit about them really taking McKissick out of the game and then what's their next move. Well, it could be Logan Thomas again. It could be Cam Sims again. You know, the one thing I noticed, correct me if I'm wrong, but Cam Sims actually backed this up for me this morning, they play corners on sides. Like Richard Sherman's going to stay on the left side and Jason Verrett, who's a good corner, is going to stay on the right side. So Turner's going to know where

they're going to be lined up. And they're going to play a lot of five DBSs. They did against Buffalo for much of the night. They had that nickelback number 27. Johnson maybe is his name. They had him in there with two linebackers for much of the night. Hopefully he can find the right matchups. But I have a feeling as good as the 49ers are and as good as Warner is,

even though he's a Mikebacker. Because he can run, I think they're going to do. a good job of taking McKissick out of what he's been doing. So Scott Turner's going to have to find another alternative to move the football this week. I think they will. I don't know what it is yet, but I think they've been pretty smart and pretty adept at coming up with answers to what's being done against them. But I think that's a big thing to watch Sunday.

Number 54 for the 49ers, don't let him disrupt the game. He has developed into one of the best lines. backers in the NFL. Oh, it's such a good key. Fred Warner's all over the place. Do you see the pick? He had a pick last week where he tipped one up in the air and then he caught it himself. I mean, he will change a game defensively for you.

He's Bobby Wagner. He may be better. Maybe better. Yeah, he's an exceptional player. And you mentioned the cornerback, Dante Johnson, who wears number 27. Like, if I'm San Francisco, I'll play Implemints of Zone, but I'd just let Dante Johnson cover McKissick. I'd treat him as a receiver. I would bag that he's a running back thing.

I would just mark him as a wide receiver, which is what I bet they will do in this game plan. They'll treat him as a receiver. And so, you know, my last key is San Francisco. It's one of two things, okay? One, you're great on third down and eight. Can they be great on third down and eight? It goes back to my first key.

Can Alex make some plays off script? Can Alex get the ball down the field in some of these situations? that would alleviate a lot of the problems. But if you're not, I'm not suggesting that you take big risks in the run game, but I am suggesting that you find ways to get them off balance. You find ways to make Fred Warner run. You do some of the things they've done with some of the fly sweep stuff. You have implements where you get to the edge with some toss stuff.

You have to displace them. You have to make them run. And I think you have to be able to run the football a little bit. To me, it's a defense that will prevent. long runs. It's a defense that's initially set up to prevent longer passes to get you into some of those third down and long looks. But you got to believe that staying balanced in this game is going to be huge unless, Kev, Alex is amazing on third and long. It's one or the other. It's find a way to have balance in the run game or be great on third and long because if they don't

who are they going to run it with? They're going to run it with Peyton Barber and they're going to run it with McKissick and they can run it with McCorm and Stephen Sims can be involved in some of those things like you could have receivers in the back field you can mix keys there's a lot of things that they have shown that they can build off of this year but if you don't run it with some balance they'll exploit you and they'll ask you to take risks and they'll ask you to make stupid throws or they'll beg you to do it by showing you that maybe you can get something here and they'll take advantage of those situations um it's just to me it's just such a sound coverage team that doesn't do a ton with changing looks up on the back end, but because of that, they don't give up a ton of

big plays down the field. You get, you're going to have to work for it. But in doing that, I think run balance makes it so much easier. I think they can. I really, I do think they can implement that balance. And I'm not suggesting like, hey, we're going to line up and just pound it down your throats. Peyton Barber, here we go, two yards, two yards. That's not, it's not what it's going to have to be. It's going to have to be some creativity in the run game to to create real balance. That's going to be interesting because without Gibson, you know, we haven't seen them be able to run the football with anybody else.

By the way, I think McKissick is a runner. I'm just going to mention this, not just because of last week. I think he is a bit of a risk of putting the ball on the ground as a runner in traffic. You know, Leek could be called up this week. He's on the practice squad and he's been practicing. so without Gibson, they could bring Javan Leake up, and Leake is a home run hitter. Like, he's a major home run hitter, and if he is active for the game in Gibson's absence, I would put him back on kickoff returns immediately.

Now, it's in Glendale, but the final three games that are all outside in cold weather, you know, against Seattle at home, Carolina at home, and at Philadelphia, I would replace Danny Johnson with Leak if he's actually active. My last key to a win in San Francisco is red zone defense. Both of these teams, I think you know this. Washington is the number one red zone defense in the NFL. Number one, San Francisco's 10, so there are top 10 red zone defense in terms of touchdown percentage in the red zone.

I see personally the 49ers driving the football in this game. I see him driving the football and I see them getting into the red zone. So the team that obviously forces more field goal attempts is going to have a much better chance to win the game. The problem with the 49ers, you know, as much as any team they'll face. Not because of Mullins and Mullins could be, you know, the wild card in our favor. You know, he could make some mistakes. But God is the play calling creative in the red zone for the 49ers. You don't know who's going to touch it and where it's coming.

coming from. It could be any of the receivers. There's so much that they do. Washington's going to have to be excellent in the red zone, which they've been all year long. And then offensively, when they get there, if they get there, they're going to have to make the 49ers pay with touchdowns. That's, you know, that's not as obvious as the turnover, cliche, key to a game, which obviously exists in every game. But I bring it up because you've got two excellent red zone defensive teams. Cooley, do you know that this is the lowest over-under on the board this week in the NFL? It's 42 and a half right now, the total.

And that's the lowest over-under total on the card this Sunday. There are a couple of other games that are close to it. I think Dallas, Cincinnati is pretty close. I haven't seen a Denver Carolina number. That could be pretty low, too. But, you know, Vegas is expecting, you know, not a lot of touchdowns. You know, 42 and a half in the highest scoring season in NFL history, by the way, that's what we're in the midst of right now through 13 weeks.

You know, they're looking at things like red zone defense and more field goal attempts in this game than touchdowns as a possibility. Red zone defense, red zone success on both sides of the ball, crucial in this game. So big. it's who cares about yards allowed it's about points allowed 100% and by the way we've seen that's what it is and red zone offense is also going to be massive you get down there you got to find a way to get six we've seen you know I don't give a crap if the 49ers have 440 yards of offense they may I mean unlikely but if you can give

them you know three of those drives or four of those drives or they get into the red zone if they only get one touchdown, then you got a little chance. You know, I was just thinking about this. You know, Jack Del Rio has really played a lot of different ways this year. You know, he played very much Ben Don't Break against Burrow in that Cincinnati game. You know, he played in some ways Ben don't break against the Steelers by not really going after Rathlisberger, understanding what was going to happen. He did it against Detroit to a certain degree.

I could say it against teams that he did. think could run the ball on him. Yeah. Well, well, that's really, he did it. He's played four down fronts and some softer coverages against teams that he did not think could run the ball against him. The teams he has believed can run the ball against him, they've went into five down fronts, almost a three, four look, and some bare defense fronts.

I would imagine that's probably what you're going to get. Okay. I guess then that sort of contradicts my thought of you don't want to give up. those huge chunk plays, you want to make them earn it and then stop them on a short, you know, on a condensed field and force, you know, field goal attempts, which, you know, is kind of what happened against Cincinnati in that first half. They got a turnover on one of those on the Chase Young, you know, forced a fumble on Burrow. This is a, this is just such an opposite matchup of the one we saw on Monday, you know, in terms of what their

offense is compared to Pittsburgh's offense. The good news, is you are probably facing the worst starting quarterback that you have faced all year long. And I know that Mullins isn't terrible, and he's had his moments. We didn't know that Wentz was going to be what he was. And obviously, they got a break facing the JMU guy in the Dallas game and facing Ryan Finley in the second half of the Cincinnati game. But in terms of starting quarterbacks, this is the first, you know, non-starter well I guess DAC.

They didn't face DAC once. They got Andy Dalton in both games and Dalton got hurt in the first game on the Bostick hit. But anyway, you should be somewhat optimistic that you're not... Next week is a problem in Russell Wilson.

This week isn't a problem at quarterback. It shouldn't be. The problem is their scheme. Yeah, the problem is absolutely the scheme. Like I would much rather have our defense right now play Russell Wilson in Seattle. Really? Can play this?

Yes. I'll get after Russell Wilson. They'll keep him in the pocket. Our defensive line has the ability to run and, you know, really collapse on Wilson and force him to make throws quicker when he gets outside of the pocket. You think of that defensive, Chase Young and Montez Sweat. Any way of Wilson goes, they're going to have guys rally quick. Like, to me, it's a scheme that knows they can attack you in any different way.

and they have players to do it. So I am more concerned about this scheme and this offense than I am about Russell Wilson. Oddly enough, the way we're built, that's how I feel. All right. Smell test, lock of the week. We'll talk about some of the other NFL games here and we'll finish up the podcast right after this word

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There are places out there that you might sign up, and I'm telling you, not all of them are really above board. My bookie is you're going to get fair pricing. You're going to get fair lines. You're going to get fair money lines. You're going to get plenty of ways to wager. By the way, they have an online casino that gives you the chance to play, whatever you want to play. online poker, online craps, online blackjack. You want to play six-deck blackjack, coolie, you can do that. You want to play one-deck blackjack? You can do that. You know what I found out,

by the way, about one-deck blackjack online? There's no double-down opportunities, not online. So I would play the six-deck blackjack. If you don't know this, your opportunity to double down in blackjack is the advantage you get. That's where you can actually really tighten the margin that the house has, that the dealer has over you, is using those double-down opportunities. I was fooling around with it. They told me to fool around recently with the online casino, and I was in there, and it's actually a phenomenal online casino. The craps is phenomenal. I love craps more than anything, but you and I love to sit at a car table and just play blackjack. We could probably do it drinking beers for hours.

And, you know, the one-deck blackjack opportunity, I just would recommend against that. You can't, one-deck blackjack may give you the opportunity in your own mind to count cards easier, but your double-down opportunity is your opportunity unless you've really got, you know, the MIT card-counting system in your head, which, by the way, will get you in trouble and an actual casino. know. But anyway, did I tell you I went to the MGM a couple weeks ago? You did? Yeah. It was a Saturday night, which makes it awfully crowded. And I was there with a bunch of my son's friends and fathers, because one of my son's best

friends, it was his 21st birthday. So a bunch of dads, a bunch of boys, we went out there. And, man, I'll tell you what. Seriously, if I'm, this, this really, this really, this really may speak to some of the issues that I have. But is there anything more sort of fun than being with a group of guys at a blackjack table in Vegas, preferably? Just, you know, beers and cards for, how long could you sit at a blackjack table? Seriously, what's the longest time you've ever spent just sitting there playing blackjack? It all depends on if I'm winning or if I'm even.

True. You and I, even if it was just you and I. And it's so much more fun if you have, you know, four people. Right. If it's a whole group of your boys. Your guys, like, I'd have no problems sitting there for five, six hours. I know. I've done it before many times.

I just drove across the country. I stepped in Deadwood, South Dakota. Played Blackjacket at 11 o'clock till 1.30. Did you win? Did you win? I made a couple. I did win. I won two a couple of weeks ago.

I actually got, I got on a row. role and you know the best part about it when you're there with people who are like all right we got to go you have the opportunity to get up and leave when you're up which is what i did um because i was up i just had to go to bed i didn't really want to leave but i had to drive the next day what was i you know the other thing that's great about it i got down to like the my last two green chips and then i battled all the way back way up like you get back your last two i mean i could took more cash out but you know the initial start to get down to the last two chips i'm like all right let's put them both in one that one all right let's put 50 more in blackjack the next time i'm

like okay back in business here we go what was the what was the deadwood south dakota casino like are you know there was how many person wore a mask not one not one the dealers nobody at my table knowing because there was no mask rule were there separators a glass or plastic separators? Between the dealers there were. Yeah, there was a, it was much more, yeah, you had to wear a mask, and there was separators, and by the

way, only three per table at the MGM. Which casino were you at? Because doesn't Deadwood have a bunch of casinos? They do. It's a little casino town. I was at Cadillac Jacks. Cadillac Jacks. Catalac Jacks. How great does that sound?

Compare, give me what Cadillac Jack's casino floor looks like compared to a Vegas casino. Is it big? No, I think there were five blackjack tables going at most, probably two, three card poker tables. They did actually have poker on the main floor in there that they didn't play. And then slots, no, it's time.

It's like a tenth of the size of the MGM. Cadillac jacks. That's pretty cool. I mean, you can go look it up. What were the minimum tables? I was I think 15 was the lowest I saw But it was Saturday night

I've played in some of those places where there's five dollar tables I've played in places like that where there's been two dollar tables Oh well way back in the day in Vegas I mean even at you know a place like the flamingo hilton or caesars or the mirage I mean there were always five dollar tables I mean Atlantic City always had that as well But I'll tell you what in recent years like at the MGM and I think the MGM really does a phenomenal job. It's really a first-rate casino. But on a Saturday night, you can't

find anything less than a $25 minimum, blackjack table. In fact, I couldn't find a dice table that was less than $25 minimum, which really, if you know anything about craps, if you're playing $25 minimum, it can get away from you in a hurry. It can be a very quick night. And so, you know, we had teenage guys, you know, and young guys, not all teens. They were all 21 or older. But, you know, they're like, Mr. Sheehan, Mr. Sheehan, come on, let's play, let's play craps. Show us how to play craps. And it was like a $25 minimum.

You can't sit there and show them how to play craps with $25 minimum. That's the only problem with that place, I guess, on a Saturday night. I would imagine that on a weeknight, maybe you've got a lower minimum on. You better hit your point a couple times early if you want to play that game. If you're playing the pass line, you better hit that point a couple times before you crap out. Yeah, it can be really, it can be tough. Cadillac Jacks, I just pulled it up. Did you stay at the Marriott that's right next door to it?

I did stay at the Marriott. Did you? You know what? Did you pay more than $66 for a room? Because I'm looking right now, that Marriott at Cadillac Jacks, $66 a night. On a weekday, I think I paid 90. I think you paid a little bit too much. Well, you know, I just walked in and took it as it came.

Anything under 150 was going to be fine for me. In that given night, I just needed to stop and get out and have a place to stay. All right. Let's get to the smell test in your lock of the week. Last week, 6 and 6 on the smell test. Oh and 1 start. Told you about Georgia Tech last night. Sorry about that.

Should have been a win. I hate saying should have been a win. Because how many times it should have been a loss? probably more times it should have been a loss than it should have been a win. I'm still eight games under 500, six and six on the season. I'm going to start with a game, Cooley, and you will appreciate this, and you would guess this, I'm sure, that so fits into the smell test criteria and philosophy, because it's the, not only is it an anti-public play, but it's such the perfect anti-public play.

Why? Well, explain. Duke is playing Florida State tomorrow. Duke last week got beat by Miami, 48 to nothing. Okay, they got beat 48 to nothing. The week before that, they gave up 56, and the week before that, they gave up, I think, 52. They have been blown out three consecutive weeks by Miami, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina. And now they're playing Florida State, who, by the way, isn't good. I mean, you talk about a program that has fallen. It's really amazing. Florida State was an elite program, a true top five program for decades under Bobby Bowden. And it's just never been the same since, well, I guess Jimbo's did a pretty good job there. But bottom line is Florida State's a mess, but Duke's a bigger mess. And the points spread is five. And when a team loses 48 nothing the week before and they come back and they're playing at least a big name program,

and it's Duke and you're only getting five, you take Duke. That's the first play. That is what we call a general principle play. There is no chance you could convince me to get off Duke. If it fails, it's going to fail epically. Like it's going to be Florida State 48 to 17, but I bet you anything that Duke has a chance to win this game against Florida State tomorrow. Coastal Carolina, BYU was one of the best games, really, of the week.

weekend. That ended up being such a big game. And Coastal Carolina had the ESPN Game Day crew there last week. And they won the game and they're undefeated. They're 10 and O and they're playing 5 and 5 Troy. And they're laying 13 and a half. Buy it to 14, but expect a little bit of a letdown. The public's all over Coastal Carolina. I'll take Troy plus the points. George's changed quarterbacks. Everybody perceives Georgia now to be much more capable than they were with Stetson Bennett, who really could not play. Missouri, though, is a little bit underrated. They're catching 13. The public likes Georgia in this game. I'll take Missouri at home plus the 13 against Georgia. I don't know why Nebraska keeps popping up for me on the smell test, but they each, somebody out there really

likes the Cornhuskers and Scott Frost's team this year. You know, they're two and four. You know, they're not a good team. I have. I think I gave him out. What's going on with Scott Frost went from being one of the elite programs Central Florida to not being able to turn Nebraska around? It's, you know what the problem is? It's really tough to recruit to Nebraska. You know, back in the 70s and 80s and 90s, Tom Osborne, not nearly the same thing. It's it's hard to recruit to Lincoln, Nebraska when you can end up being, you know, a star in, you know, in so many other of these SEC schools that are college towns with beautiful girls and beautiful scenes and beautiful weather. I'm not saying the girls at Nebraska aren't

good-looking, but I don't know. Maybe not. I think you are. I might be. I've had Nebraska a couple times this year. It didn't work out against Illinois when they were laying a massive number. It worked out against Iowa when they were getting points. They're giving a big number to Minnesota, who beat Purdue last week as an underdog, beat Illinois, the same Illinois team that rocked Nebraska. Minnesota crushed Illinois a couple of weeks ago. They're laying 10 and a half. I'll lay the 10 and a half.

I'm going to buy the half point down to 10, but I like Nebraska laying the 10 and a half. Excuse me. I love it. I love that. UCLA is getting two and a half against SC. SC had their most impressive performance. They actually played the game against Washington State on Sunday. Slovis is a pretty good quarterback.

I think SC's going to be one of those teams that had it been a normal season, would have been a real contender in the Pac-12. Oregon turned out to be overrated. This line is so short. UCLA's played well. They have. They should have beaten or had a chance to beat Oregon. SC is undefeated. I would have thought this number would have been bigger by the half point again to get it to three.

But take the Bruins plus the two and a half. They are a massive, massive anti-public play. The public seems to think SC has a chance to go undefeated. And they're not going to be a playoff team. It's going to suck for them if they do go undefeated. If they do go undefeated, let's just hope the win over UCLA is by a point or two points and not more than two. Let's go to Sunday I'll tell you what, there's not a lot that I love. There are some games that I like. The most curious line to me on the board Sunday,

I don't know why Arizona's favorite over the Giants. They're a three-point favorite over the Giants. And my immediate reaction would have been Arizona because I would have thought maybe the public will be on New York who's played really well and Daniel Jones is back. But the game is split. I mean, I got some information last night on that game specifically because I asked for. No, I didn't get shark information, but I got where a certain couple of offshore action and public money is going.

And that game from everybody that I heard from is split right down the middle. So it's not, it doesn't fit into the smell test criteria. But I do wonder why Arizona's favorite. I would have guessed the Giants would have been a three-point favorite in this game. Another game, and I've been, I'm 5 and 0 on games involving the Vikings this year, either against them or for them. And I do like Minnesota tomorrow because that number's under seven and it hasn't budged all week. And I think a lot of people think Brady and the bucks after their buy week are going to come out smoking. But again, a public pretty much split right down the middle on this game.

I thought the public would be on Tampa this week in a much bigger way. but the information I got last night is, you know, a lot of split action. I might play Minnesota personally. I think that there's a sense that they're fraudulent. They barely beat Carolina. Not Carolina. Yeah, they barely beat the Panthers and they barely beat Jacksonville last week. But I don't think Tampa's, I think there's problems in Tampa there.

But I think the problem with this thing is that you've been right on Minnesota so many times in the smell test this season that you're unwilling to risk a game where you do truly feel Minnesota, but you're weighing your emotions because you've been on Tampa a little bit this year. Well, I'll tell you what, I really, you believe in Minnesota. I really almost gave out Jacksonville last week against Minnesota for two reasons. One, it was that big double-digit underdog that's done so well this year in the NFL, but the action was really split, but I really thought Jacksonville was right,

and I almost gave Jacksonville out last week, and they nearly pulled off the upset. I think the Vikings are right this week, but again, it doesn't fit into the smell test criteria, which requires sort of a major public play. It's not. The action split. So let me get to the games that I do like. I mentioned Jacksonville. I think we've talked about Jacksonville this week. Jacksonville as a one and 11 team is six and six against the number this year. Not only are they six and six against the number this year. They are four and one in their last five games. against the number, even though they've lost all five of those games. And really, in four of those games, they were totally winnable. They had a chance to beat Houston and lost 27-25 as a seven-point dog.

They had a really good chance to beat the Packers at Lambo, not that it's a home field, but on grass, Jacksonville, colder weather, and they had the lead in the fourth quarter of that game as a 13 and a half point dog and lost 24 to 20. They didn't cover against the Steelers who blew them out 27 to 3, but then they played Cleveland two weeks ago as a seven and a half point underdog and had a two point conversion to tie and lost 2725. That's two 2725 losses in one season. I bet that's never happened before. And then last week, last week they went to overtime with Minnesota as a 10 and a half point dog and lost 2724. The point here is that, you know, like we've had this conversation about, are you really what

your record says you are? No, you really aren't. You know, Jacksonville is a feisty team that offensively is pretty good. And by the way, Miles Jack is a star. Can we say that that Miles Jack has developed into what a lot of people thought Miles Jack would develop into, which is just a massive, menacing, you know, fast, and playmaking linebacker. Jacksonville to me is a real interesting opportunity moving forward. But anyway, I digress. Jacksonville is getting seven and a half at home against Tennessee.

I like the Jags. The public, again, is against Jacksonville. They think Tennessee will bounce back in a major way after getting pummeled by Cleveland last week. I'll take Jacksonville plus the seven and a half. This one is cringeworthy, and I will concede that going into it. but I can't for the life of me figure out how the Saints are favored by less than a touchdown against the Eagles. Now, they're going to start Jalen Hertz. I still think that the Saints should be seven and a half or more, and that line has just been sitting there at six and a half all week long. The public has been pounding the Saints all week long.

I'll take the Eagles plus the six and a half. Buy it to seven, please. It didn't work last week. but I'm going to be on them again this week. And then finally, my last NFL game is Denver, but I want to just give you a heads up on this game. There's something going on with the line in this game. I don't think it's McCaffrey-related.

I think it might be COVID-related. It's off the board right now in some spots, but where it's on the board, Carolina is a three-point favorite. I like Denver plus the three. I mentioned yesterday, Cooley, that I think, Denver and Jacksonville are two teams that are going to spoil some things down the stretch here for teams because they play some playoff contenders. Denver doesn't this week. Denver's defense is good. It's really good and it's super well-coached. And I like Denver this week plus the three. So there are

the picks. Duke, Troy, Missouri, Nebraska, UCLA, and then Jacksonville, Philly in Denver. It's like we get to the NFL and people are like a lot of people don't know about the college teams. And they're like, God, Shan, you just, you gave three horrible teams out in the smell test. Yeah, that's the way it works sometimes. It's not whether or not those three teams win. It's whether or not those three teams cover. And Jacksonville has been a covering machine here over the last five weeks. So I will take them.

What's your lock of the week? Well, I really should have taken the Rams as my last. lock of the week, but I didn't feel yesterday when we talked that it fit my lock of the week criteria. Which is what? I absolutely played myself, but it wasn't necessarily a game. I felt comfortable at the time.

No, I'm just kidding, dude. I had a really good feeling about the Rams. They were three point favorites in that game, right? It went off at four. I think it went off at four last night. Yeah. Four and a half, maybe. I thought that the Rams

defense would dominate. I hated the game both ways. So I saw four, four and a half. It came down. There was shark action on New England. But I didn't like the game at all last night. Oh, I know. My guy from Aruba

called me and he's like, do you just stay off of this thing? Aruba. No, Antigua. Antigua would be the right No, he actually, he lives in Aruba. Oh, okay. He lives in Aruba, but works in Antigua? Very good. All right. What's your Every once in a while, yeah, and he goes to Bahama.

So before I get to my Lock of the Week, I think this is the best week Vegas is done as far as lines. This to me seems like the hardest pick for smell test type picks or Lock of the Week type picks. Like I'm looking at right now, like Kansas City, Miami. Miami's getting seven and a half right now. It's seven right now. Miami's covered. It's almost. Yeah, it's seven right now.

now. It's down to seven. I covers it's seven and a half still at this point. Miami is one of the best ATS teams of the year. They're nine and three against the number of this year. I mean, that's absolutely awesome, but I just don't know what Miami's going to do. A quarterback. I don't

know how I can bet against Kansas City. There doesn't seem to be anything. Like, I want to take Buffalo right now at minus two because I think Buffalo is a really good team, but I think Pittsburgh has a bounceback spot. So my lock of the week is going to be the Philadelphia Eagles and it was part of your smell test

which is why I always like to go first because you get to pick like 10 and I have won. But I think Philly is still a really good run stop defense team. New Orleans is going to rely heavily on the run. I don't know if Taysam

Hill is the kind of guy that can get it done to be a two-score win team. I think that team will play for the new quarterback. Jailen, Jalen hurts. Why can't I think of his last name?

Hurts. I think they'll play for the new quarterback. I mean, I thought about going with the Jets as the lock of the week on the new coach, on a coach firing type of system. It wasn't a head coach. They fired Greg Williams. But he wasn't a head coach.

So I straight away from that. I do think the Jets end up covering. But I'm going to go with one game and one game only. I'm going to take the Philadelphia Eagles this week. And I'll be honest with you. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a full on upset. win that game. Yeah, I mean, I gave him out last week, too, and Jalen Rager had that punt return for a touchdown to close it to 2317, and it looked like a really good chance to cover. Plus,

they got the ball back after that, and then punted, and then Aaron Jones, you know, ran 77 yards for a touchdown. That's never fun when that happens. Hey, just go down and let's run the clock out. Anyway, yeah, that line reeks. Do you agree with me, though? Aren't you surprised that Arizona, who is really looked, you know, like an average team at best. It's almost looked like teams have figured out Kyler Murray to a certain degree. I'm surprised they're favored in New York. It met life against the Giants. Yeah, I'm with you.

I'm surprised at that. But New York is not fast up front as far as a defensive line there, a run-stop defensive line that's found some ways to get after quarterbacks. Leonard Williams. He's passing quarterbacks. Leonard Williams is a big dude, but he ain't taxed. and Kyler Murray. Yeah.

The open field. And I think the Cardinals are going to present some problems for New York's secondary with some real skill at the receiver position. And the flip side of it, you know, Arizona's a versatile play a million different things type of defense. And Daniel Jones is a young guy and they'll put pressure on him. Honestly, I think that this is, I think Arizona wins this game. I think they win it pretty easily. I'm with you that I think New York's a good team. I just don't think Arizona is a good matchup for New York.

I could be wrong on this. We'll see. Arizona's been playing really, really average football, but I'm looking at them at 6 and 6 saying this is a half to have it win. And obviously it is for New York. But Arizona's better. They are a better football team than New York. You know, the Miami-Kansas City game is really interesting to me.

Like, I think I like the Chiefs in this game. I'm not sure. It's unfair at this point for me to say this because I have not watched other than red zone or highlights. But I'm definitely not sold on Tua at this point. I am sold on their defense and I am sold on Brian Flores, but there's no great defense in the league that's going to stop the chiefs. I mean, Denver did a nice job in the red zone last week, but I chalked that up to Fangio's brilliance. I just think that he, for whatever reason, always is able to figure it out, especially against the real good teams. You know, when he was in Chicago, he seemed to figure it out

how to slow down at times, Green Bay or even some of the other teams in that division that were explosive. By the way, that's a big game. I mean, that's, that's, in terms of the aggregate record matchup, that's the best game of the weekend, Kansas City at Miami, 11 and 1 against 8 and 4. Actually, I guess Pittsburgh Buffalo would be that in the Sunday nighter, 11 and 1 versus 9 and 3, which is also a phenomenal game. I'm sort of with you. Like to me, I think Buffalo's really good. I think they're well coached. I think Alan is a star. I think he's got big weapons and digs and Beasley and Singletary. I think he's, but he's really the star. And Pittsburgh to me really didn't look like an 11-0-team.

But you're going to get Tomlin's best, you know, against Buffalo on Sunday night. I also think Detroit's going to, they won last week in comeback fashion against Chicago. I liked their team at the beginning of the year. Their coach sucked. He's gone. They won their first game without him. You missed out on your theory last week of taking Beville and his first game. I know, but I still won a game, so.

I know you did. We don't look back at that. I think Detroit might play Green Bay close. I'm more concerned about Green Bay. For some reason, I just never have a good feel for Green Bay in these games. I think if you can run the football against. Green Bay, you got a shot. They have had trouble running.

Detroit's one of the worst rush offense is in the NFL. I understand that. I understand that. But you know what? They have good backs. They actually have good backs. And they may have a different philosophy with Cornell as the head coach than they did. Not Cornell. Beville.

Cornell. A really struggle. Different place. Houston. Yeah. By the way, that's a weird game. He took, Cornell took over in Houston. Yeah, that is a weird game. Why is Houston not a bigger favorite there? I think Houston's better in Chicago. I think Chicago's garbage right now. I think Houston's better, too, but it's so funny because Houston is another one of those teams that they're four and eight, but if you watch them

play, they're capable any given week of beating almost anybody. That was, I had them in the smell test last week, plus three and a half. They've got first and goal down 2620 and they fumble. You know, Chicago last week, they moved the football. They scored points. It was weird. So I don't know. And then, you know, the Minnesota Tampa game is a massive, you know, wild card implication game in the NFC. I just think there's something wrong. I mean, Tampa was my pick to win the NFC championship game. Something's not right there.

And I also, one of the reasons I'd lean Minnesota in this game and did earlier in the smell test, didn't put them in the smell test, is they barely beat two perceived bad teams in Carolina in Jacksonville, and neither one of those teams is actually bad, bad, bad. and so people aren't buying into them right now. Also, Dalvin Cook all of a sudden they have not been able to effectively dominate on the ground. So they've relied on Kirk and Justin Jefferson and Thielen who is back. And a lot of people don't believe in Minnesota when they have to rely on throwing the football. And Tampa's defense is exceptional.

I have a feeling Minnesota wins that game outright. And it's not because I believe in them that much. they've done an incredible job of fighting back from one in five. And I think they are a team next year, Cooley, that could be very much in the NFC, adding some pieces, getting DeNeal Hunter, who was their best player defensively back after injury. So next year could be their year. But I think something's wrong with Tampa. There's just not good enough on offense for a team that should be excellent on offense. and you wonder, is it scheme?

Is it what they're doing? Is Tom Brady not getting it? I don't know what it is. So they had such a wealth of weapons on offense, and then they were the one team that really said, like, we have to have Antonio Brown. We need that. We need another weapon.

They didn't. Weird. They didn't need another weapon. I hear you. I don't think they needed another weapon. And the other thing, too, I'm just thinking about this. Minnesota's secondary can be had. So maybe, you know, this is just a shootout.

Like, to be honest with you, I think this has overwritten all over it. Yeah, I love that. This is 3128, 3431, something like that. Final score prediction, Washington, San Francisco. I'll let you go first on this one. You'd like to let me go first. I think San Francisco wins this game. I don't like the match up for Washington.

I hope Washington does pull it out and surprises me a little bit. But to me, I think this is San Francisco all day. I think this is like a 27 to 13 game. I think that's what I picked last week, so I should probably deviate from that exact score. But I do. I think San Francisco ends up putting on them early, and they stick with it,

and ultimately it's too much for Washington over a come. I think there's going to be a lot of motivation here this week for a team that was sort of embarrassed at the end of that game last year. It wasn't this coaching staff and they're new players, but that slip and slide affair at the end of that game last year. You watched it. I remember Larry's call was, you know, this is, you know, basically uncalled for and whatever. I mean, you know, Kyle, you know, Kyle wanted to come back and kick their ass.

And he had already coached against him once, so it wasn't the first time. And the game was ugly because of the weather and the water on the field and the whole thing. I think there's going to be a little bit of remembering that. I don't love the matchup either, but I really love. the way they're playing. I wanted so much to predict a three-point San Francisco win because I picked a Pittsburgh three-point win, and it turned out to be a Washington win. But I'm picking Washington, 23 to 20 in this game. I think the Giants are also going to beat the Cardinals. And I think at the end of the day on Sunday, or 745, 8 p.m. on Sunday night, the Giants in Washington are going to both be

a game below 500 at 6 and 7. And then next week, the conversation will increase even more about what both of these teams really are right now. And that would be, you know, at that point, Cooley, it would be constant all week long on the national shows, the national NFL shows, are the Giants in Washington dangerous if they get into the postseason? Because they would both be on a roll. I mean, the Giants, that would be five wins in a row for them.

I think Washington is going to win their fourth in a row. I hope they do. I think the Giants lose as well, though. I know. You like the Cardinals and the Niners. All right, everybody, have a great weekend. We'll be back Monday to recap the game. I will holler at you over the weekend.

Have a good one. You too.