The Kevin Sheehan Show - Brissett & B-Ball

Episode Date: March 16, 2023

Kevin and Thom today with plenty on Washington adding QB Jacoby Brissett via free agency. Kevin went through his annual exercise of reducing the NCAA Tournament field from 68 down to 4 teams that have the best chance to win the National Championship. The boys picked their Final 4, a few first-round upsets, and Kevin has six "Smell Test" picks for today's first-round action.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheehan Show. Here's Kevin. If you are listening to us on Apple or Spotify, follow us. We ask for ratings and reviews when you can give those. That's helpful.

Five stars, quick one to two sentence review, especially on Apple. But if you can follow us on Apple and the plus follow button is in the upper right hand corner on your iPhone. or if you listen to us on Spotify, if you can follow us, and that follow button is like midway down the left-hand side. That is very helpful. By the way, Tommy, a couple of reviews that I'm definitely going to read today. First of all, five stars from Wet Hog via Apple podcast. Wethog writes, very informative show. I've learned from Sheehan that the G in strength is silent.

I still don't know how it couldn't be silent. But anyway, this from locked in house, okay, so I want to make sure that this person is locked in their house as they're writing this particular review. I used to be annoyed by Leverro. However, after listening for a couple of years, I realize he is always right. It's a great podcast, and I promise Leverro will grow on you,

minus the singing, period. You always love when people tell you how right you are. Well, you know what? I appreciate it. But like I tell people, it's a burden sometimes. It's not necessarily a gift. No, and remember, it is your simplicity that makes you so complex. This from Zeke via Apple Podcasts review,

unbelievable is the title. Correct me. if I'm wrong. Tom jumped off the Taylor Heineckee bandwagon last season, and now he's a Taylor Heineke fanboy acting like Ron did him wrong. That's laughable. Taylor should be thanking Ron for the opportunity to feed his family. Tom just love hating on the team any chance he gets that from Zeke. So Zeke and Locked-in House have two different views of Tommy, which by the way is an unusual for anybody that does this. There are always many different views of what we do. If you're going to have an opinion in this business, and you better, if you're in this

business, you're obviously going to have people that disagree with it, and you've got to live with that. You know, it's the way it goes. You know, those people are wrong, usually. The people that think you're wrong are usually wrong. I think, but, you know, to be honest with you, I think Zeke's review, I, you know, this is one of those things where I'm going to get this right about your position, I believe. And I'm not going to exaggerate it like many of our positions are by the people who listen to the show. You were never necessarily on the Taylor Heineke bandwagon and you never necessarily jumped off. You've always said that you understand him to be what he is, which, is a backup quarterback.

You just didn't think that Carson Wentz was a better option last year. And I don't know that you... I said this on the podcast on Tuesday, and I said in my column today. My position on Taylor Heineke is while he was here, he was their best option to win. Right. Yeah. Yep. Not that he's good.

Right. Two different things. Just like I think that Kirk Cousins is a good quarterback and a quarterback that should have been kept here at all, not at any expense, but at much greater effort because I thought it would be hard for them to find somebody that was better. And I never said he was the best or elite. I always said he's a very good quarterback and they're going to regret not being. aggressive in signing him early and being aggressive in trying to keep him here because it will be hard to replace him. And I think we're now on year six. Did we just complete year six without them or year five? They haven't replaced him yet. Would you agree with that? Starting with

2018, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22. Five years, no. When I can sit here and say that Taylor Heineke was their best option to win, that would be a big no. They haven't replaced them yet. Right. Now, let's get to, we've got a lot of tournament talk. I'm going to give you that exercise that drove Tommy nuts last year, whittling the field from 68 down to the few teams that can win the national championship. We're not going to do full-fledged brackets on this show.

All right? I'll give you a couple of first round upsets. I'm going to give you a smell test today on the first round. So you're going to have to get this early, and we're going to get the show out early today. But I am going to whittle the field from 68 down to four teams that I think can win the title with kind of a theory slash exercise that I went through last year that I was listening to the other day that Tommy nearly lost his mind listening to. It was actually very funny. All right. So Jacoby Brissette for $8 million guaranteed.

Let me start with this. I like it. He was number two on my list of quarterbacks once we realized they weren't going to go for Aaron Rogers or Lamar Jackson. He was number two for me behind Andy Dalton. I like the signing. It's a little bit more expensive than I thought it would be. But then again, the quarterbacks are coming in more expensive, including the backups. Now, for the guys that have been signed as just obvious, you know, not obvious starters.

So we take Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo out of the equation, and we look at Dalton, Heineke, Stidham, Brissette, Mike White, Case Keenham, at this point, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, by the way, in Tampa. He might start. Brissette was the most expensive. He was an $8 million guaranteed for one season guy. Taylor's guaranteed $6.3 million and basically is two for 14, but it's mostly incentive-laden.

And so Brissette ended up being the most costly of the guys that aren't obvious starters coming in. And I think here we already know that he's QB-1A. There's a QB-1 in front of him. But I like Brissette. I like what he is. I like what he is as a teammate. Everything you've read about him over the years is that he's a phenomenal guy. He's a phenomenal teammate.

and that he'd be a great mentor. Nick Chubb, the running back in Cleveland, said Jacoby's been amazing for us. He's a great person, a very good player. He's done a lot of things here. I love him. I love playing beside him. It's been great playing beside him.

I had Mary Kay Cabot, longtime Cleveland playing dealer, Brown's beat reporter on the radio show this morning, and she just said, they're upset that they lost Bresset. They wanted to keep Breset. Brissette held the fort down. until Deshawn Watson was ready to go.

And the fact that they were four and seven with Berset was not about him. It was about their defense, which was very disappointing last year, which it was. And Kevin Stafansky was hoping to keep him. But Berset took the Washington job because Mary believes that Jacoby thinks there's a legitimate shot to start in Washington. And that's one of the reasons he's taking the deal here. But I like the deal. I like the player. I'm not delusional about the player. I don't think that this is a franchise answer long term. I don't think that they, you know, if he ended up starting all 17 games,

that they'd win 11 or 12 or even 10. But I do think that he's the best quarterback that's been in the quarterback room here for a few years. He's 6'4. If you haven't watched him, and most of you have. But I would urge you to go back and watch some of the Browns games from this year, the Tampa game, the Carolina game, a couple of them. He is 6'4, 235. He's more agile and more mobile than I think he gets credit for Bing. He can make every single throw. And, you know, I'm not saying that he's going to have a Gino Smith, you know, kind of reveal at 30 years old. But there's always been something about Jacoby Brissette going back to NC State, for those of you that have listened for many years, I loved him coming out of NC State, and I said this guy just looks and plays

like an NFL quarterback. I think it's a good signing for this team. Obviously, my preference would be to swing big, and I don't think it should prevent them from drafting a quarterback if they really like a quarterback, including in the first round. But I actually think this caps off, I don't know if it caps it off, but that, you know, it adds to a pretty productive week, given that they haven't spent big and they've only got upsides with the players that they've signed. They haven't, you know,

strapped themselves to some sort of cap hell if it doesn't work out with any of the players that they've signed this week. What do you think of Jacoby Bressett? Well, look, I think that he is the best quarterback they've had here in a while. I think he's, you know, what's so remarkable with this team, it's like, it's like, like, I,

I don't know. It's like an octopus with like a thousand tentacles all trying to choke itself. I don't even know how to describe it. That's a lot of technicals. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, because he wasn't their first choice. According to the reports, Taylor Heineke was their first choice. I saw that report.

I don't necessarily know if I'm buying that. But go ahead. But that's, I think ESPN reporter. I think I did. I know. I know. And John's as good as anybody. But I had heard going into this offseason, and I said this three weeks ago, that they've got a number in mind for Heineke, and they're not going above that because they're just not going to go above it. They don't believe in him to the extent of paying him big-time high-end backup money or even low-end starter money. Let's try to approach this logically. if they had him as their number one guy to bring here as the quote backup, and they knew that they would wind up losing him to Atlanta,

don't you think they would have offered him the same amount of money they did to Jacobi percent? I don't know. Why would they offer more money to the guy who was the second pick, unless it was a panic move because they lost their first guy. Well, I mean, last year was a panic move because they lost their first, second, fourth, seventh, and ninth guys probably before they got to Wentz. So I'm not going to discount that as a possibility. If the Kime report is that they had hoped to get Taylor Heineke for like $4 to $5 million. And by the way, Tommy, this may have been about money, which is why Heineke may have been the first preference.

Heineke at a certain number may have been their number one overall. Doesn't mean necessarily it was, he would have been their number. number one choice at quarterback. But if it's true that he was number one, number one overall, and they ended up paying more for, you know, in guaranteed money for Jacoby Brissette than Atlanta paid for Taylor Heineke in guaranteed money, then yes, it would wreak of a little bit of, you know, panic, not at the same level of last year. But, yeah, I would agree with that if that's true.

And look, they underestimate an overestimate. underestimate a lot of shit. That's what they do. But normally, it's human to sometimes make a mistake and underestimate the market and be caught by surprise that Atlanta would come in with this deal for Taylor Heineke. You know, it's reasonable

I think they could have been caught by surprise. And then they say, well, we've got to now we've got to get a quarterback that we want. You know, I mean, you know, Andy Dalton sign in someplace else. We've got to move, and it's going to cost this money to move. I would understand that, okay, with a normal football team. But this football team is so screwed up. I mean, it just seems, it just seems so typical of them to wind up.

I mean, to me, I would have taken Jacoby percent over Taylor Enochie. Well, me too. You would have been, and Dogg would have been my number one choice like you. I would have taken Jacoby Reset last year over Carson Wentz. I agree. I think I said that last year, including Dalton last year. By the way, there's another way to look at what you just said, especially considering that you believe that Taylor Heineke didn't want to be here, and that he and Rivera had this major rift and with the way the Cleveland Week was handled, and that he didn't want to come here. It's very possible that Washington knew all along. I mean, I'm taking what you believe to be true. I don't necessarily subscribe to that.

but let's just say you're right that Taylor was not coming back here unless it was the only option and Washington can you know kind of leak out there that we were really interested in bringing Heineke back because they know you know a portion of their fan base is upset that they let Heineke go and put it back on Taylor that's possible too that's possible as well But I think about, okay, let's just take them at their word, not their word, let's just stick with the report that Taylor Heineke was their number one choice to bring back. How insane is that? I mean, I would think that you would want to distance yourself from this guy as quickly as you can,

because do you want Sam Howe going out there the first home game in the season going pre-for-geant-eat-season going pre-for-gey. 10 at halftime and listening to the sporadic crowd at Ghost Townfield chant, Heineke, Heineke. I mean, that was what would happen. The first time, Sam Howell, you know, through an interception, there'd be chance for Taylor Heineke in the state. I actually, like there were during the Cleveland game. I said that if they went out and signed like Derek Carr or Jimmy Garoppolo, that it would be a

big problem to have Taylor Heineke here. because the first three incompletions, they'd be chanting Heineke. Yes. But I actually don't feel that way with Sam Howe. I think the Sam... Oh, I think they would. I think the Sam Howe thing is a long-term play for a portion of this fan base. And by the way, that portion seems to believe that it will work out if they just stick with it.

So I think actually they'd be more patient with Sam Howell. But I do think that it would have been a... I think it would have been a problem. had they pulled, if they had traded for Garoppolo or signed car, you know, just like, you know, the Cleveland game, everybody forgot that he had turned the ball over five times in the three previous games and hadn't played well. Although again, let me just, you know, say the two and a half quarters against San Francisco were maybe the best two and a half quarters of the year for him. But, no, I understand that. You know, there would have been a little level of what are we getting,

What are we doing by bringing him back if we don't really want him to be our quarterback with the delusional part of our fan base? That's harsh. That's harsh. Let me correct that. With the part of our fan base that actually thinks he's more than a backup quarterback. Go ahead. Okay. More on Sam Howe and Jacoby Reset.

This is what I believe. there's no way that Sam Howe beats out Jacoby percent in training camp. If that happens, I mean, a legitimate beat out. I'm sure, you know, if Sam Howe is Ron's guy, QB1, he's going to start, okay? But there is no, if Jacoby percent loses the job to a fifth round draft choice, who's thrown 19 NFL passes, then he's not the quarterback. You and I think he is.

Yeah, I don't want to go nuts over Jacoby Brissette. I like him, and I like the role that he's played in the NFL. And I think, you know, this might actually be the best all-around supporting cast and team, especially considering the defense, he's been on. So that's a perfect segue into this tweet that I want to. I actually want to read you two tweets. The first one comes from Michael Phillips. It made me laugh when I saw it last night.

He tweeted, people are mad because Berset might be the week one starter. That's some classic Twitter. I'll miss this place when it's gone. I love that because it's kind of what I was feeling last night reading some responses to, because I tweeted out, I go, this is good. And then somebody tweeted back to me, excuse us if we don't get excited, as excited as you, about the league's quarterback number 38, and I said he was 8th and QBR, 13th in DVOA, 14th in PFF. The quarterbacks here last year, Heineke and Wentz, were in the 30s and almost all of the key,

you know, advanced metrics. But I tweeted, I hope Ron commits to a legit competition because if Hal is good enough to tie or beat J.B. out, that would be a great scenario for this franchise. If not, you know, sorry, they should play the guy that's going to give him. them the best chance. But I want to read this tweet to you and respond to it. And I did this on radio this morning. And I think you will actually appreciate this to a certain degree and probably agree with it, which I don't always like when you agree with me. It's better when you don't. But this came from Gary in response to me tweeting out about Bressett yesterday. Kevin,

the 2023 season is the season of Sam Howell. They drafted him. They anointed him QB1. They didn't, as like to say swing big on the position in this offseason, Brissette should be nothing more than a mentor for 17 games in the season of Sam. That's what he titled the upcoming season, the season of Sam. I just don't understand this. Neither do I. I mean, I don't know if it's constantly being beat over the head. part of it.

That they just can't recognize what they're actually wishing for. You know? Yeah. And winning football games has become such a distant goal that they don't even consider it anymore. So let me respond to Gary's tweet by starting with this, because I actually did a little research, too, on this. teams invest more time in their biggest investments. Teams invest more time in the big investments they make.

Sam Howell was not a big investment. No matter how recognizable his name is, no matter how highly you think he should have been drafted, or how highly he would have been drafted had the draft taken place a year earlier. He wasn't picked until the fifth round. And he didn't fall four rounds because he was coming off some serious injury. He didn't drop to the fifth round because there were concerns over his character or because of an incident that he was involved in. He was picked in the fifth round because teams clearly didn't think he was good enough or they didn't project him to be good enough to take much earlier.

Why do teams invest less time and lesser investments? Well, the track record of the lesser investments would be one place to start. We've talked kind of about this in the past, about, you know, your quarterbacks really come from the first round and really the top half of the first round. They don't come after the first round, and they certainly don't come in the fifth round or later. Tommy, this was the research I did last night. This century, so since the year 2000, 129 quarterbacks have been drafted. in the fifth round or later. One out of

129 turned into a legitimate franchise quarterback, his name, Tom Brady, okay, the greatest of all time, drafted in the sixth round. You know, maybe Brock Purdy will become the second great quarterback drafted in the fifth round or later, or maybe it'll become Sam Hal.

But more likely than not, okay, one out of 129 this century, more likely than not, Ham Howell is going to end up becoming T.J. Yates, Jonathan Crompton, Dan Orlovsky, Omar Jacobs, Clayton Thorson. I could go on and on and on. Look, you could make the argument that teams should invest more time in their lesser investments and maybe the numbers would be better than one out of 129. Okay, that's a debate worth having, but they don't. They don't invest more time in their least amount invested. A first rounder gets more time. They get more

allowed time to fail. A fifth rounder doesn't, doesn't matter what his name recognition is. And look, the bottom line is franchise quarterbacks are super hard to find even in the first round, but they're almost impossible. This wouldn't even be a bet on a board in Vegas to bet on a fifth rounder or beyond to become a legitimate upper-tier first starting quarterback in the NFL. By the way, the second best quarterback drafted in the fifth round or later since the year 2000 is Ryan Fitzpatrick, a journeyman career. That's the second best. And then you've got, you know, the next names that you'd even know are Matt Castle,

Derek Anderson, Josh Johnson, and Nathan Peterman. That's the next best. And then really all it is is just a long list of people you've barely ever heard of. The idea, Gary, that you think a team should or will invest 17 games a whole season into a minor investment is naive. They won't. And they shouldn't. Fifth rounders that are given a chance, as it seems Sam Howell will be, have a built-in short leash, Tommy. built-in short leash.

You know, I used this analogy. You go to a cover charge, you know, live band performance, $15 or whatever. If it's bad, you leave. If you go to a concert that you think's going to be great that you paid $150 to go to, you stay until the end. That's the difference between a fifth rounder and a first rounder at this position. Sam Howell's going to have a chance to buck the long-shot odds and become a legitimate long-term answer as a starting quarter.

but the odds are he won't. And by the way, most guys like Sam Hal don't even get the chance that Ron has bestowed upon him as an off-season QB-1 because the reason he's getting that chance here is because the team doesn't have a quarterback. And by the way, it's very possible if you were to take the cynical view on Sam Hal and the QB1 designation, that they think that he probably can't do it, but they're not able to swing at a big quarterback this offseason, and they want to sell the unknown in Sam Howe, especially coming off that disastrous Cleveland game.

And he's got some name recognition, and he played a decent game, one game, and they feel they can sell this for the time being. You know, now... I got to tell you, Kevin. What? Kevin? I like that last idea. I think that's a real legitimate possibility as what's going on here.

They didn't want to play them in the final game and a meaningless game, people. I mean, Logan Paulson reported, remember that week, he's not going to play in the final game because the word around the building is he's nowhere near. ready enough. He's not ready for a meaningless preseason game, and Taylor Heineke had to talk the coach into it. Now, the more optimistic view of why he's getting a chance is they actually are intrigued. They're optimistic. They're sincerely optimistic that he's got some talent and, you know, and that there's a chance. But no, I don't really see a built-in 17 game opportunity, nor would I want that if it appears that he's like the other 128 out of 129 over the last 22 years.

Like if they know in training camp, man, this just, it's not going to work. I mean, it was a fifth round flyer. It was worth it because, you know, he's pretty good in college, but it's not going to work. I don't want him to be given 17 games. I mean, what? Okay, but, but, okay, let's stop for one bit. Okay, go ahead. My scenario is if they know in training camp, he's not the guy,

he's still going to be the week one starter. Okay. I hope that that's not true. You can't pop this guy as QB1 and not even go out there for week one, not even see him for one game. Can't you hear the Ron Rivera Press conference, though, after minicamp? You know, this is going to be an open competition, like we've been talking about all along.

You know, Sam's a nice young prospect. We like the way he finished up the season last year. Jacoby, though, he's played in this league in a long time. This is going to be a nice competition. He'll act like he never said QB one at any point. Yes, he will. Yes, he will. But if Jacoby percent can't beat out Sam Howe,

then he's not the quarterback you and I think he is. Yes. Look, I want to make one thing clear. You know, I'm not saying, and I'm not convinced in saying there's no chance that, that, that, Taylor, that Sam Hal won't show enough to deserve the opportunity. What I'm saying, though, is given the, you know, improbable mountain that he'd have to climb from an odd standpoint based on the last, you know, 22 years of fifth round or later quarterbacks, if it's really obvious, that he can't do it, then they have a guy that they can play, and I wouldn't want to sit there if they know deep down that it's not going to work and see a bunch of games of this.

When they actually have a decent team, see, the NFL isn't baseball people. You've got 17 games every year, and almost every team has a chance to be competitive year and year out. You don't waste another full year of Terry McLaurin on a wing and a prayer, fifth round flyer at quarterback. Okay, unless he really shows this. And he might. The fan base, I think that they've lost their perspective because they've suffered, I think, for so long,

is that they don't take into account, well, this is a season. You know, this is a season where we have some talent, and we could play our way into the playoffs, given the right circumstance. And then who knows what happens after that? Maybe when a playoff game. for the first time in, what, 20 years or something like that. They don't think of it that way. They're willing to flush another year.

They're willing just to flush another year for this idealistic hope. And by the way, count me on the zero chance that Sam Halp can beat out to Kobe percent and training camp. Sam Hal may be a week one starter. I want to conclude with that. Don't give me your answer on that. I want to conclude with that. I've got an exit question, as John McLaughlin would say.

By the way, January of 2024, when the NFL postseason starts next year, it will have been 18 years since Washington's last playoff win. 18 years. But let me finish up with this. Look, the NFL doesn't do long-term developmental years on low investment quarterbacks. Okay? If he's good and he shows promise, then yes, let him play because it's not like you've got Joe Montana sitting there waiting in the wings. But if it becomes clear that he's more of kind of a wishful project, you know, then you cut bait. You know, maybe you give it a little bit of time, but fifth rounders you can cut bait on.

You're not losing a lot. This roster doesn't suck, Tommy. They've got a top 10 defense. Terry McCorn and those receivers are good. If they've improved their offensive line, I want Sam Howell to be given a chance to look the part. But if he's not the part, you cut bait and you put a guy in there that can keep you competitive. And by the way, we haven't even addressed the whole, you know, there's this contradicting kind of situation for conflicting situation for Ron Rivera. On one hand, he's got a win.

On another hand, it'd be great for him if he was right about Sam Howe. And then, by the way, for Eric Bien of me, this is interesting too. This is a year in which he's going to, hopefully, in his mind's eye, prove that he can be a head coach and then get a head coaching job in 2024. Well, is it better to develop Sam Hal into a legitimate starter? I would make the case that if he, you know, if Sam Hal is like a no-chanceer and they realize that at some point, that developing Jacoby Brissette into, you know, a guy that. that has the best year of his career on a team that wins nine games and plays as the seven seed, that would be good for Eric Bien of me as well.

So I actually think he's got two ways to go there. But anyway, yeah. Let me ask you one quick. I don't understand the 17 game, the season of Sam. That's just naive and that would not be very smart. If this were Dwayne Haskins, let me go back to the late Dwayne Haskins, rest in peace. and they spent what they did on him, I did advocate for that one year.

We got to find out about Haskins. They invested a shitload in Haskins. He's got some talent. We got to find out about him. But a fifth rounder is a different conversation. But let me also just say this to finish up, and then you finish up as well before the exit question. And that is, it's much better for the franchise.

I recognize if Sam Hale turns out, to be a guy that can play. And if he turns out to be a guy that can play and they realize this in the off-season, I'm all for, let's give him the season, if it's clear in training camp, early in the season, that there's really something to this guy.

And we've got to see how this plays out. I'm all on board. But if he can't do it, you're not giving him the season. All right, what did you want to say? Okay. Well, that brings me to my question. And there's no way you're going to, to be able to know. You've already seen the guy, okay? I mean, like you said, you didn't even

want to start him in the last, in the last meaning with game of the season. So there's, and it's very unlikely you're going to see this miracle transformation in training camp where he's going to wow everybody and leave no doubt that he's the guy, okay? Here's my question to you. is winning the first game of the season important. To whom? To this team, to its fans. Is it important? I don't know. I haven't seen the schedule yet.

Well, it doesn't matter what the schedule is. It does. If they open up with Philadelphia, you're not going to be a double-digit underdog. You're not going to win that game more likely than not. Right, but I don't care if they're playing the little sisters to the poor. This team's goal, and picking their quarterback should be who gives them the best chance of winning week one. Not who gives them the, like, I'm not developing a guy over 10 weeks, 11 weeks, 17 weeks.

This team needs to win game by game by game. I understand what you're saying, but I'm not sure I understand why you're saying it. Are you saying it because they will have no interest? Like last year when we said, if they lose to Jacksonville in Detroit, oh my God, because of the way this schedule set up, it's like you've got to beat Jacksonville in this opener. You know, you got to, you can't go to win two in these first two games. Or is it just you're saying, bottom line is you just go into every game and you play the person that gives you the best chance to win that game?

Well, what I'm saying is if they go into, if they know by week one that, And let's say Sam Hal has not stunk the place up, he's shown them enough to be interested, but they know their best chance to win that game is Jacoby-Perset. You play him week one. You don't put Sam Howe out there with the idea, well, let's give him a couple of games to get under his belt. You put out there the guy you have the best chance to win. Winning football games right now is the priority for this football team. If they want anybody to show up at the stadium, winning football games should be their only priority.

I mean, as you're saying that, I'm like, we are incredibly wrapped up into a situation, a quarterback situation that is at best mediocre. You know, so whatever. So winning at all, winning, if you don't think either one of them is a long-term answer, and Jacoby Brissette's had enough time, he's probably not the long-term. answer, then really you're just taking each season as its own entity and you're trying to win as many games as possible. And, you know, some could make the case. Well, I'd rather just suck all year and play the worst guy and get Caleb Williams or Drake May in the draft next year. But

you're too good on defense to win three games next year. You're going to win five, six, seven games. You're rushing away a year, like you said, a year of Terry McCorn. And John Dodson. Yes. And Curtis Samuel. You know, you're going to. You're rushing away a year. You're rushing away. Like you, like you said, a year of Terry McCormick. And You know, you're flustered away another season with these guys. And a really good defense. Yeah, you can't, you've got to stop doing that. You can't just be willing to give away seasons because seasons have become so meaningless.

What if I told you, though, okay, that winning that first game is really, really important. But the bottom line is, even if you play the better guy, that the best you're going to do is 8-8-1 again. you know, 8 and 9, 9 and 8, maybe, you know, be in playoff contention, maybe make the 7 seed, maybe not. But you're certainly not going to be a contender. And you haven't advanced towards being a contender at that position. Then if it's close, wouldn't you play the young guy that you, like to me, if it's close,

you play Sam Hal. Like if he shows enough that he's right there with Jacoby Brissette in training camp and he can do things that Brissette can't, and they really think, wow, you know what, he can do a lot of things and all he needs now is experience, then I would prefer that they'd play howl. I'm talking. Okay, but that, but I mean, that's a possibility. But again, if that happens, then I don't think Jacoby Peret is, again, for the fourth time, the quarterback that we think he is.

I mean, I think that he is the starter. Right. We're not talking about, like, if, you know, if Derek Carr couldn't beat out Sam Howe or, you know, even actually Jimmy Garapolo. Like if Jimmy Garoppolo can't see, that would have been a massive waste of money. We're talking about a guy that's been a career journeyman himself, you know, and if Sam Howe has real talent and they actually believe in that talent sincerely, then you may be a little bit off as to. how one-sided the competition would be. Now, I'm not suggesting to you that Brissette right now, more likely than not, wouldn't give him a better chance in the early portion of the season next year,

because Sam Hal is green as grass. But if it's a close competition, and even if, you know, Brissette were to, you know, they would be better off with Brissette in the opener because of his experience, but that's the only reason, then I would understand if they played Sam Howell and saw that thing out. My whole take is if they realize that Sam Howls like basically 128 out of the last hundred and 29 or at least 120 out of the last hundred and 29, well, then don't, don't F around. Cut bait and play a guy that's going to give you a chance to be competitive and then worry about solving

the quarterback situation next year. You know, by the way, draft a quarterback if you like one. Please. Yes. I say draft the quarterback in the first three rounds. Exit question. There better be one in the first three rounds that you like. Exit question.

Okay. How many games does Jacoby Brissette start next year? Hello? I know. I'm thinking. Okay. I'm thinking as to, I mean, because I'm trying to put myself in the warped brain of the guy who wouldn't recognize a quarterback if Johnny Unitas was standing next to him on the sideline.

Okay. I'm going to say that Jacoby Resett starts 11 games, no, 12 games. 12 games? My answer is 9. I'm going to say, you know, that they're probably going to start Sam Hal because of the QB1 designation. I think it would be a big mistake if he isn't anywhere near ready and the other guy's much more ready. I think that would be a big mistake, personally. I want to see him close to ready and then them also believing that there's some upside there and then play them.

But I think they're going to, you know, with this group, they'll probably start him and they'll probably give him a chance. And, you know, by the way, I don't think Sam Howe will suck. I don't think he'll be horrendous. I think he's got some talent and he's got some mobility. I don't, you know, again, I would bet a lot of money against him being the answer long term. but then, you know, they'll realize that probably Brissette gives him a better chance to win and that Howell isn't the future and they'll play Brissette. They'll come to the conclusion that leaving Sam Hal out there will cost few football games,

even if he flashes some brilliance at some point at times during games. They'll also cost the games. Your final answer was 11 or 12? 12 12 12 okay yeah and by the way and we could do this some other time here's what comes into play is chikobi percette eric bianami's guy we don't know that well if kime was reporting that taylor heineke was their first you know choice then i would assume that eric bianemies first choice was Taylor Heineke. Because I think Eric B. Enemy is being given

a chance to basically not only pick his own coaches but pick his own quarterback. That's possible. That's possible. But I do think, look, I think they ended up with the guy that actually

gives them a chance to be a competitive team with the team that's around him if he has to play. And if he doesn't have to play, means, in my opinion, or it should mean that Sam Howell really is showing them something and has really got some promise. And maybe you'll have to suffer through some inconsistency and maybe even a losing season. But if he shows that promise and he shows that upside, then I'm all in on,

you know, continuing to play him. But my guess is that ultimately what we find out is there's a reason that he lasted until the fifth round. We'll get to, after Brissette, we'll get to baskets next. Right here on the podcast after these messages from a few of our sponsors. This segment of the show is brought to you by MyBooky. Go to MyBooky.orgie. Use my promo code, Kevin, DC. And all you have to do is wager your initial deposit amount one time

and you're eligible to cash out right away. It's perfect for March Madness, perfect if you want to bet the tournament and then stop betting. Maryland, by the way, I'm looking at My Bookie right now, is now a three-point underdog against West Virginia. Smell test picks coming up in the final segment for today. But go to MyBooky.ag. Every which way you think you can bet the tournament and a lot more is available at MyBooky. Fair lines, fair pricing, you get paid if you win. MyBooky.ag.

use my promo code, Kevin D.C. So I'll ask you for your final four and your championship pick here shortly, and I will give my final four in championship pick as well. But I'm going to go through the exercise that I've now gone through for, I don't know, it's like five years, something like that, where I do a little bit of a rip-off of some of the things that other people have done, which is instead of just picking a bracket, taking the 68 teams, and now we're down to 64.

And, you know, coming up with four or five or six teams that can actually win it. And this exercise, with the exception of the year that Virginia won it, has produced the champion, the eventual champion. Tommy mocked me for this last year. But then at the end of it, as I listened to it, was a little bit more intrigued by it. But initially, he was mocking my inability to communicate it well. So I'm going to do a better job of communicating what I'm about to do. I'm going to take the field of 68.

It's 64 now, but just assume that it was 68. And I'm going to whittle it down to four teams that can win the national championship. And I'm going to do that through four different criteria. Number one is a criteria that has produced 15 of the last 18 championship team. and that is if you finish in the top 15% of scoring teams in college basketball, you advance to the next set of criteria. And again, 15 of the last 18 champions have been a top 15% scoring team. By the way, let me just backtrack for one moment.

This all started when Gary Williams told me many years ago. If you can't score and you can't score efficiently, you can't win six games and win the tournament. He said, if you're a really good defensive team, you can win three or four, but you can't win the whole thing. You've got to be a really good offensive team to win the NCAA tournament. Virginia is the one outlier. By the way, that year, Texas Tech and Auburn, both of whom were in the final four, were two of the final five teams that I had on my list. So, number one criteria, you've got to be a top 15% scoring team.

Number two, you've got to be a top 10 offensive efficiency team, and we get that from the Ken Palm, adjusted offensive efficiency number. Number three, we get into more subjectivity. I believe you've got to have great guard play to win the NCAA tournament. I don't think most people would disagree with that. And so we'll talk about the teams with good guard play. And then lastly, I think you've got to be well-coached to win. the tournament. So, starting with the 68 teams, there were 27 teams that got to move on to the next criteria because they were in the top 15% scoring teams in Division 1. And by the way, that equates to basically the top 55 scoring teams. The teams that moved on from the 68 were Pitt,

Fairley Dickinson, who won last night, West Virginia, Iona, Creighton, Baylor, Southeast Missouri State. not win the other night. Utah State, Texas, Providence, Colgate, Florida Atlantic, NC State, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, they did win the other night. Yukon, Miami, Missouri, Memphis, Marquette, Iowa, College of Charleston, Furman, Xavier, Alabama, Oral Roberts, Arizona, and Gonzaga. Those 27 teams are the teams in the tournament that finished in the top 15% of scoring teams in America. Now, out of that 27, Tommy, how many

finished in the top 10 in Ken Palm's adjusted offensive efficiency rating, which measures not just high-scoring teams, but teams that score most efficiently. Off that list, there were

eight teams that then qualified after the first two criteria. Gonzaga, Baylor, Iowa, Arizona, UCon, Marquette, Xavier, and Missouri. So we're now down to eight teams after the top 15% scoring teams and being a top 10 offensive efficiency team per Ken Palm.

So now we're down to eight. Now I get into my subjective sort of angle here. I think you've got to have really good guard play. You've got to be able to shoot the three. you've got to have good wing players, good guards to win the NCAA tournament. So the criteria here is that two of your top three scores have to be wing players or guards. You know, they can be six, nine and be a small forward or a power forward, but they got to shoot a lot of threes. They got to be really a perimeter player.

So out of those eight teams that survived the top 15% in scoring and the top 10 in offensive efficiency, Gonzaga, Baylor, Iowa, Arizona, Yukon, Marquette, Xavier, and Missouri. There are six of those teams that had two of their top three scores this year being guards or wing slash perimeter players. Those teams are Baylor, Yukon, Marquette, Xavier, Iowa, and Missouri. You'll note here that there isn't, One seed left in my exercise that I'm going through. Baylor's a three, Yukons, a four, Marquettes, a two, Xavier is a three, Iowa is an eight, and Missouri is a seven.

Now we get into the last subjective criteria, the fourth line of reasoning, and that is which of these teams are well-coached? Well, Baylor won a national championship with Scott Drew, so I got to put them into the possible teams that can win it all. I'm not a big fan of Danny Hurley, so I don't have Yukon advancing into the final teams here. Marquette and Shaka Smart, give me Shaka Smart.

Marquette is a team that can win the national championship. Iowa's coached by Fran McCaffrey. Iowa is interesting because I think they're a very well-coached team, but he's never been past the first weekend of the tournament. Fran McCaffrey hasn't. At Iowa or at Sienna, and he's been in a lot of tournaments with good players. You know, like he's got one Murray this year.

He had the other Murray last year. He was the number four pick overall. He had Luca Garza. Didn't make it out of the first weekend, but I think they're well-coached. So I've moved him into the list of teams that clear all four criteria. I don't know enough about Missouri's head coach Dennis Gates.

in his first year, so I didn't advance Missouri. Xavier's coached by Sean Miller. Sean Miller would have been the Maryland coach back in 2012, had Kevin Anderson given him a couple of the things that he wanted. Instead, he leveraged it into a big deal at Arizona, and he only got Arizona to the elite eight. Sean Miller's never been to the final four. But I think Sean Miller, even though crooked is hell,

and caught on a wiretap line. I don't even know how he and others are coaching in college basketball. I think he's a really good basketball coach. So the four teams out of the six that were left after solid guard play are Baylor, Marquette, Iowa, and Xavier. Out of those four teams, one of them is going to win the national championship. It's been right, I think, with me doing it, I think, four out of the six times. Virginia was an outlier because Virginia certainly didn't qualify

with any of the offensive stuff and I forget the other one but one of those four teams I think will win the national championship. Now what's really hilarious is I did this the year Virginia won it and when we got to bracket talk I picked Virginia to win the tournament

and they did and they did and I actually have a team that's not on this list in my bracket winning the tournament. But that's, you know, the offensive efficiency and offensive scoring numbers, those are proven. Fifteen out of the last 18 champions have been a top 15% scoring team, and 16 out of the last 19 champions have finished in the top 10 in Ken Palm's offensive efficiency. If you're wondering, by the way, because that's a pretty big hit, right? I mean, 16 out of 19.

Here are the top 10 this year. Gonzaga, Baylor, Iowa, Arizona, Toledo. They're not in the tournament. Connecticut, Marquette, Xavier, Purdue, and Missouri. Those 10 teams are the top 10 in offensive efficiency. 16 out of the last 19 champions have come from the top 10 in offensive efficiency in Ken Palm. Anyway, so. Well, I got to tell you.

You've got your staff work. You've got your staff work in overtime today on research. It's all me, brother. Between the fifth round draft picks in the NFL and this, I tell you, you better put a little extra in their paychecks this week. You know what I'm going to? That's a really good suggestion. I'm going to stuff.

The people that worked on this stuff, the person that worked on this, I'm going to stuff his paycheck this week. All right. Give me your final four national champion. Okay. Arizona, Purdue, Houston, and Gonzaga. Arizona, the youngest team in the draw, by the way, Purdue, Gonzaga and Houston.

And Houston. Who's your champion? Gonzaga. Gonzaga is the champion. Jimmy gets his farewell Cinderella story. Okay. Gonzaga is the number one offensive efficiency team in the country. so that would apply to that particular number.

All right, so let me real quickly. I got a couple of first round upsets. I didn't think you were going to be that prepared. Go ahead. Give me your first round upsets. Well, let me just point out here that I have no idea what I'm talking about. That's okay. Most people don't.

Tommy, I haven't paid attention as much as I typically have. By the way, the NFL's totally overshadowing everything this week with the tournament. but go ahead. I've got Charleston over San Diego State. Okay. I've got Kent State over Indiana. Those are both 12 over 5s, Ken State over Indiana. And Penn State is a 10.

I have them over Texas A&M, a 7. Okay, Charleston over San Diego State. Penn State. What was the other one? Penn State and Kent State. And Kent State, that would be a big one. Charleston and Kent State would be big ones. All right.

I'll go the opposite way. I'll give in terms of laying out my bracket. I'm going to give you some first run upsets here in terms of seating. I kind of like NC State over Creighton. I like Florida Atlantic over Memphis. I like Arizona State over TCU. I like Illinois over Arkansas. That's a nine over eight.

and I like Drake over Miami and Penn State. I like Penn State, too, over A&M. All right, my final four. And let me mention that three of the teams that made it into my final four exercise are in my final four. I've got Baylor against Marquette in one semifinal and Iowa against UCLA and the other. UCLA wasn't in the top 15 percent of scoring. They weren't top 10 in offensive efficiency. but I love this UCLA team, even without Clark, a big injury for them.

I like the coach. I love McCronin. I love their experience with Hockes and the group that played in the final four a couple of years ago. And they are tough. They're older. They're experienced. I like UCLA to cut down the nets Houston, even though they weren't one of the four teams that I told you, your national championship.

should come from. I'm going to do the same thing I did with Virginia a few years ago. They weren't in the final four, but I picked him in my bracket. I'm picking UCLA to win it over, by the way, UCLA over Marquette in the final. Let me just put. What was your final matchup? What was your final matchup? You just gave me your champion.

My final matchup is Gonzaga versus Purdue. Okay, Gonzaga over Purdue. Okay. What were you going to say? This is Kevin's version of, don't do what I say, do what I do. Well, actually, if I'm going to do the do what I say, or don't do what I say, do what I do, that would more apply to the smell test. Because at the end of the day, all these brackets and all this exercise that I went through, that's not where my money will be. My money will be on individual games in totals when the real games start at 1215 today with the Terps.

And so we'll finish up the show with my smell test and maybe one or two other things. right after these words from a few of our sponsors. All right, Tommy, tell us about Shelly's. Okay, boys and girls, don't be that slug today. We're sitting in front of your computer at work and sneak and watching the games. Don't be that person, okay? Express your freedom, walk out the door,

and head for the place where you would really enjoy watching these games. Shelly's back room. at 1331 F Street Northwest in the district. Eight high-definition TVs throughout the two rooms that they have with comfortable couches, very plushed chairs, and people waiting on you with your favorite drink, enjoying a smoke. Even if you're home, don't be that guy sitting there by yourself in your basement. Scream it at the TV.

Get out, have a cigar, have a nice, whiskey at Shelly's and scream with other people who are right there with you. Shelly's back room, 1331 F Street, the place to watch March Madness. You know that I think it's a great idea for most people. I can't watch Skins games or Terps Hoops games with large groups of people. I can't do it. It's too important to me. It's too intense.

and I don't want to be bothered. Not because people are going to be asking me questions based on what I do, but just being bothered by inane comments and thoughts and analysis and interruptions. I need to be dialed in. So this morning, when we finish this, I will be heading home, not to Shelly's. I would encourage the rest of you to go to Shelly's. Maybe I'll be at Shelly's tomorrow. But for the Terps game, which I'll be at Shelly's game,

which is the first game of the day, which the whole country will be tuned in. You know, people, you know, either online or at bars after they told, you know, their boss that they had a big meeting. Big meeting with a new client. It's going to take a while because, you know, they live way, they're based way out in Frederick.

So I may not come back to the office today. But I will be there by myself. So before we get to a smell test, to finish up the show. The NFL, Tommy, really is kind of. It's amazing, right? How it has become so overwhelming in terms of every week, every month of the year. I mean, by the way, next month will be even worse with the draft.

And I actually, you know, I was watching a little bit of the first four game last night with Arizona State crushing Nevada. Nevada should not have been in the field. But, and I was like, I don't think anybody's even watching this first four game. It's NFL free agency. This is what people are paying attention to right now. I mean, whether it's, you know, watching NFL network or, you know, online following the ESPN.com NFL free agency tracker. You know, definitely on social media to see all the breaking news from Rappaport and from Schefter and everybody else.

the first four idea, which was a way to expand the field to 68 and then to end up with two nights of additional television games, I don't think it's worked out. I'm going to write this down because I want to ask John Orand, I bet it doesn't rate well at all. You'd almost have to have like a year in which Duke's playing, you know, Michigan State in a first four game for to draw a big number. And that really isn't likely to happen most years. I mean, Arizona State Nevada, Mississippi State, Pitt, whatever. The NFL is dominant, but with respect to the NFL, the Aaron Rogers situation really is an incredible situation. Because this guy is outrageously self-absorbed, clearly. Sign me up, though.

I would still take, you know, Jacoby Berset, Sam Howell, and toss him out the window, and have Aaron Rogers be the quarterback here in D.C. this year with Logan Thomas as the backup if that opportunity existed, which it doesn't. But this situation was for a couple of days, man, what's Aaron Rogers doing? Well, he's drawing it out, but now it's being drawn out by the teams. Ross Tucker, you know, explained that. It was the first to kind of walk through that with me yesterday on the podcast, but you see what's going on. The Jets don't want to pay a lot for Aaron Rogers. And, Green Bay, they don't have to trade them now. There's no rush for Green Bay to trade them now. I mean, they have their quarterback. It's Jordan Love. They've decided on that.

The only urgency that Green Bay has is if they get a deal done by next month, then the draft picks or pick that they get from the Jets is for the upcoming draft, not the 2024 draft. But they're going to have a cap hit that's going to be pretty much the same. Actually, there's a post-June. one designation that they might save money on if they wait until then, but you can do a post-June 1 designation right now. But Green Bay has all the leverage. The Jets have sold it to everybody, or certainly the media has told everybody, hey, New York, Aaron Rogers is going to be your quarterback next year. Green Bay has them by the nuts.

I know. You know what? I can't wait, though. I have to admit, Aaron Rogers in New York. is going to be all-consuming. For the league, you mean, just covering it? Yes. Oh, my God.

All-consuming. Wait till you see how many games the Jets get on national TV next year. And, by the way, wait till you see, in my opinion, how good the Jets will be next year. Because I've heard a lot of people in the last week say, ah, this is just he doesn't want to play football. He's too into himself. This is going to be a disaster with the New York media. New York media and the New York fans are going to rip them to shreds. Okay.

Aaron Rogers can flat out play. He's two out of the last three years, the league MVP. Yeah. Other football news, by the way, real quickly, the Darius Slay thing, it looked like he was going to leave and now it looks like he's back with the Eagles. I was surprised that they were going to just let Darius Slay walk. He was awesome last year. And with Bradbury, you know, and I know the Eagles have some issues, you

know, in trying to figure things out. But they did lose Miles Sanders. I mean, a really good back to Carolina, you know, in looking at the division. There's just so much to keep track of here. The Cowboys restructured more contracts. The Cowboys are doing, look, the Cowboys appear to be kind of all in on 2023 with the restructuring of DAC and DeMarcus Lawrence and Tehran Smith. And by the way, letting, you know, Zeke go.

franchise tagging, Pollard. I mean, they're all in on this upcoming season. The Giants have done a pretty good job, too, just thinking about the division. But anyway, what do you think about just the NFL's free agency now becoming almost I mean, this is,

it wasn't this way 10 years ago, and basketball wasn't, you know, 10 years ago. There's a line in the movie concussion where Albert Brooks is explaining to the doctor that the Catholic Church used to own Sunday. Now the NFL does. Well, you know what? They're gobbling up every other day in a week as well.

Yeah, I mean, I have many of you, not many of you, some of you occasionally will send me a note and just say, God, I love this show, but it's just way too much NFL, it's too much Washington. Can't you do more Nats and caps? And what about Navy football? Yeah, I mean, look, I get it, you know, but there's an old saying in what we do, play the hits, and you start talking about the Nats during football season or during free agency, even though they're in spring training right now, or try to talk about the caps winning last night, by the way, over Buffalo for a long period of time.

Our download number would not be nearly as big. So the NFL... Speaking of the Nats, the Nats are holding their performance. breath about Cate Covelli. I saw that. Their top pitching prospect who on his last pitch of the game looked very much

ESPN is reporting 24 minutes ago that he needs Tommy John surgery. There you go. There it is. It's right there on the ESPN. There you go. There's our Nats discussion for the day. By the way, in all seriousness, the luck that this franchise has had with pitchers. Jesus.

I know. I am. That's really a big blow. But, by the way, I was going to mention so that there's some self-awareness here. Yeah, but she and you'll talk about Maryland basketball forever. Look, that's not necessarily playing the hits. You're right. You are right. But there's also an old adage that if you're really into something and you can be passionate about it,

even if it's not playing the hits, that's the second best thing to do. But playing the hits is the number one thing to do. And that's the NFL. Here's the third best thing. Here's the third best thing to do. It's my ball, and we're going to play my way. I can only imagine you as a kid. All right, let's finish up this show with a quick smell test on this Thursday of NCAA tournament games.

Kevin looks where the John Q public is putting their cash and does the opposite. It's time for the smell test. I know I've done March Madness, smell test picks Tommy in the last few years. I have no idea what my record is. I was looking for it last night. I think I won last year. I'm pretty sure I won last year. I just don't know by what percentage overall.

But I'm pretty sure we had many more winners last year than losers. Maybe somebody will tweet me and remind me what my record was last year. Good football season. This does not count on the football record. I've got six plays for today. Let me get them out quickly. Maryland plus, you know, the two and a half or three. My bookie's got it at three.

I gave it out on radio this morning at plus two and a half, so I'll stick with that. Everybody likes West Virginia in this game. I'm actually surprised at that. I thought it would be more split. People love Furman as a potential upset over Virginia pick. I'll take Virginia lay the five and a half. Tommy, you had Charleston as an upset pick. I like San Diego State laying four and a half.

And then Illinois plus one and a half in their eight, nine game against Arkansas. A lot of people like Arkansas. Iowa plus one and a half in their eight, nine game against Auburn. A lot of people like Auburn. And then Tennessee is one of those teams being picked by a lot of people to lose in the first round against Louisiana. And they're laying a big number, 10 and a half. I'll take Tennessee and lay the 10 and a half. So, recapping, Maryland plus 2 and a half, Virginia minus 5.5,

San Diego State minus 4.5, Illinois plus 1 and a half, Iowa plus 1.5. and Tennessee minus 10 and a half. All right. You got anything else to add, Tommy? You're going to watch the Terps? I got nothing else for you, boss. I'm going to be watching the Terps. All right, go Terps.

Hope they get a win. Back tomorrow.