The Kevin Sheehan Show - Brissett's First Start Questionable

Episode Date: December 29, 2023

Kevin opened with the breaking news that Jacoby Brissett's first start is questionable because of a hamstring injury. He talked Browns/Flacco over the Jets and then had his 49ers preview and pick. Jay Gruden was up next with thoughts on the decision to bench Howell for Brissett before giving out his "NFL Lock of the Week" which is now 10-4 ATS. Kevin had 10 "Smell Test" picks as well.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it, but you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Sheehan Show. Here's Kevin. This Washington football franchise that we all follow and root for is nothing if it's not newsy. Breaking newsy most of the time. Although maybe we exaggerate that sometimes. Maybe some of the news that we label as breaking news is just news.

But I think the news right now in this moment, is breaking news. It's caused me to redo the opening segment of this podcast before getting it out to you. The news, I am sure all of you know now, is that Jacoby Brissette is questionable for his first start, the expected first start Sunday against the 49ers. You know, it's been kind of a topic here this week, Brissette getting the start. And now, apparently, with a hamstring, injury, it's possible that he will not go Sunday against the Niners. He injured his hamstring in practice yesterday, got treatment. He was limited today, got more treatment. And the follow-up to that is that it is being reported, and I think Ron Rivera has now said, that Sam Howell will get the

start if Brissette can't go. I'm not surprised by that if I sounded surprised. But I guess part of me wondered in the interim between the news that broke about him being questionable, Berset being questionable, and the news that Hal will get the start if Berset can't go, I was wondering whether or not Jake Frum would be brought up from the practice squad to start the game. I mean, after all, Sam needs a break. He needs a breath. He's been broken to a certain degree. I right from the jump earlier this week didn't have a strong. wrong preference one way or the other on the decision, even before the decision was made. But I did have a slight preference of seeing Sam Hal back out there. Let them play through it.

You know, going into this offseason with the last four or five games as the impression of Sam, I don't think you could get any worse. So maybe get him back out there and let's see this kid that's been resilient for most of the year. Maybe not here recently. But this was one. one of the things that we liked about them. You know, a bad series came back and played well. Bad game came back the next game and played well. But clearly they were concerned. And, you know, we said yesterday on yesterday's show, Tommy and I talked about, you know,

well, should Jake Fromm be the backup? Is Sam Hal too fragile to put in if Brissette were to get hurt? Apparently not that fragile. You know, putting Sam Hal in there and now, knowing that Sam Hal is the backup. Not that we thought that Jake Fromm was the backup before, if not he would have been getting the work this week. So we knew that. But it really does speak to a combination of both the disappointment and the concern over Sam and the wanting to play better and have a chance to be competitive with a quarterback that's just better in Brissette.

You know, I think it's a combination of both. Some have thought all week long, look, this is all about Sam. Others have thought this is all about Brissette and them wanting to look good and to be competitive and to have a chance to win games because that's what they're going for. It's the fans or most of us that want them to lose out. Players and coaches clearly are never going to be in that mode. It's an organizational call on, hey, let's see Jake Fromm, let's see the practice squad players, in sort of giving you the best possibility of losing if that's what you would like to see happen, which I'm sure is what Josh Harris would like to see. Josh Harris would like to turn over this franchise to a general manager with the third pick in the draft, with five picks in the first three rounds.

Remember, it's not just the first round pick. It's every other pick that's affected. You know, the difference between picking third and seventh in the first round is also the same with your own second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh round picks. So you're gaining spots throughout the draft, which is an advantage. But obviously, the big advantage is at the top of the draft, especially this draft, with the quarterbacks. But I'm almost hoping to a certain degree that,

we see Sam Hal back out there against the 49ers. I'd like to see what this one looks like. I mean, I'm not rubbernecking here. But Jacoby Brissette, I don't think, is the future. And I don't know that Jacoby Brissette's going to be so great against the Niners anyway. Eric B. Enamey talked a lot yesterday. And my plan was to share a lot of that sound with you today. But the truth is, he didn't say that much.

but he kept talking yesterday when asked about Hallen Berset, which was the majority of his Thursday press conference, he kept talking over and over again about how Jacoby Berset is this incredible model, this incredible mentor, and Sam gets a chance to sit back and watch Jacoby Bresset. Look, I'm a fan of Jacobi Berset. I have been all the way back to NC State days. I like Jacobi Berset. I like that they signed him. I was watching Cleveland last year thinking, you know, this is the best year of his career.

And I thought Washington might be getting a guy that could really help him if it turned out that Sam couldn't do it. But they've made all week long Jacoby Brissette out to be, you know, Dan Marino. Like he gets to sit back and watch Jacoby Brissette work. I mean, he gets to watch a real NFL star quarterback. I know that it's the experience that they're referring to as much as anything else, but they have talked so much about it. And really, they don't want to put Sam back out there, and they want to put the better quarterback out there.

You know, whether Sam learns from Jacoby Brissette or not, I think the ceiling on Sam being super high, I think that ship is sailed for the people that are still there. I mean, it's a nice thing to say, but they've built it up so much that you'd think Jacoby Brissette, for Sam Howell on Sunday and maybe in the season finale was getting to watch Johnny Unitas in his prime. But I don't know.

I don't think we can learn much about Jacoby Brissette. I really don't. I don't think Jacoby Brissette is a bridge next year. I think Sam Hal should be the bridge. I actually do on the rookie deal. And they draft a quarterback. You know, that's with the obvious, that's the obvious follow-up to them drafting a QB.

Keep Sam. Sam's a backup quarterback in this league. And if there's a bridge period of time before Caleb Williams or Drake May or Jaden Daniels is ready to go, you'll let Sam start those games. I mean, if you're going to draft a quarterback number three overall, number four overall, you know, the expectations won't be playoffs for the first year. That rarely happens. If C.J. Stroud does it great. And look, Houston was well on their way before he was concussed,

and I think he's going to play this weekend. But more times than not, it is the first year of, you know, figuring it out and getting better and improving with, you know, a whole new coaching staff. I mean, it won't be, they won't be predicted to make a playoff run next year if they draft Jaden Daniels or Drake May or Caleb Williams. You know, it's a process. So I'm okay with Sam coming back next year.

You know, I'm totally okay. with him being the backup. And even if he's got to start a couple of games at the beginning of the year until the rookie's ready, although that just doesn't happen much anymore, if you draft the right guy and he's a top, you know, 15 guy, he plays pretty much right away. The Patrick Mahomes' examples are few and far between. I mean, Anthony Richardson, remember this year that Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis

was supposed to be a real example of a quarterback coming out that truly wasn't ready to play and really needed a year to sit behind somebody. So they went out and got Gardner Minchu, right? Well, Richardson was playing almost instantaneously and playing well before he got hurt. But I'm fine if Sam ends up being the backup here. In fact, that's the preference it should be on a rookie deal. Jacoby Burset's going to cost another $8 to $10 million next year. And I know he's phenomenal, and I'm being sincere, as a mentor,

is a locker room guy. But if you need a veteran quarterback because the new regime doesn't even trust Sam as a backup or a very small bridge, then, you know, pay the $3 to $4 million that the Colts paid Gardner Minshue or the Falcons paid Taylor Heineke. I'm not saying either one of those two specifically, but you can get a veteran backup, you know, for a lot less than Washington ended up paying Jacoby Brissette for this season. But man, what a twist here late in the week in what's been, yes, a newsy week, a breaking newsy week for the most part. Will we see Sam Howell?

Will we see Jacoby Brissette? Stay tuned. It will be more interesting than maybe it should have been for two meaningless games at the end of a season. The show is presented by Windonation, as always. Call them at 86690 Nation. or go to windownation.com. Mention my name, Kevin Sheehan. They'll give you a free estimate.

You've got nothing to lose. And you'll get access to their deal right now, which is 0% interest if you finance the purchase for five years, 60 months with 0% interest on the purchase. Plus, you'll pay 50% off on all window styles. 86690 Nation or windownation.com. Jay Gruden coming up on the show. I'll give you a heads up.

Jay and I recorded this earlier in the day. We had no idea that Jacoby Brissette was questionable, but still, what we talked about is still very timely. It's not going to be outdated by this news and the possibility that Brissette may not actually start on Sunday. Also keep in mind that Jay Gruden is on fire with his NFL lock of the week on this podcast. He's 10 and 4 on the season.

Please rate us and review us if you get a chance, especially on Apple and Spotify. Really important for us heading into the new year that we get more reviews, more ratings. I got this from Kevin. He gave us five stars. I love the show. I love Tom. I need more coolly. Can he do playoff football with you this January?

Yeah. I think he can. Definitely. I will reach out to him. I think he'll be watching these playoff games. He's been watching football. He's just not watching Washington games. So yeah, that's a good idea. I talked to him the other day anyway. So we'll try to when the playoffs begin, which is two weeks from tomorrow. You'll get that double header on Saturday. You'll get the triple header on Sunday and then the game on Monday night wild card weekend. We'll see. if we can get them on to preview the games and then to get either to preview or to post game those playoff games. But anyway, rate us and review us if you haven't done it. I appreciate it, really helpful. Subscribing helps as well. And following us on Apple and Spotify is a big help as well. The plus button or the follow button is in the upper right hand corner on Apple.

And for Spotify, it's down the left hand side. just click the follow button or the plus button for this podcast, and that is a big help. Before we get to Jay, I'm going to quickly read an email that I got, and then I do want to talk about the Thursday night game last night where Cleveland clinched a playoff spot. This came from Jared. Jared wrote me and said, Kevin, I'm surprised you haven't taken a bow for begging the team to draft Kyle Hamilton. But remember, they got four good players trading back, I still think the team did the right thing. So I did love Kyle Hamilton, the safety from Notre Dame, who is now killing it with the Ravens. He's having a phenomenal

season. He's a big-time impact player in the NFL. I did want him to be the pick at number 11 overall. Let me just mention, I was okay with the tradeback. You know, I appreciate you remembering that, Jared, but I liked Jahan Dotson as well. And when they traded back and got Jehan Dotson, I thought maybe they overdrafted him by a little, but I was okay with that because I loved the player. And I talked about loving Jahan Dotson before the draft. I think he was my third favorite receiver, and I didn't think they'd have a chance at the first two, Garrett Wilson and Alave. Alave, by the way, would have been a hell of a pick at number 11. well. He's having a really good start to his career, much better than Jahan Dotson. But here's the

thing. So, you know, for the last, you know, several months, periodically, there is somebody that will say, man, that 2022 move back and the four players they got, Dotson, Robinson, Jr., Cole Turner, and then eventually Sam Howell, it's the best move they've made. Just like the draft this year, it takes time to evaluate a draft people. So I'm not even going to take a bow on saying that they should have drafted Kyle Hamilton because, again, I was okay with them trading back, getting more picks and getting another good player that I really liked in Jahan Dotson. But to say you still think the team did the right thing at this point is a bit of a stretch.

Again, it takes time to evaluate these things in more than just two seasons. But not that much more, because Kyle Hamilton looks like a massive impact player. And Washington doesn't appear to have one with Dotson, not yet. I still have hope for him. They've got a really good back in Robinson Jr. That's true, but it's a running back. Cole Turner, missing in action, basically. And then Sam Howell.

I mean, you know, doesn't look like Sam Howell's the answer as the long-term quarterback. I said something way back in 2011 and a couple of years that followed when we would be getting ready for drafts. And everybody says, trade back, trade back, trade back. The trade back strategy is a sound strategy if the trade back is fair, if somebody's willing to trade back. And if you're picking up the right value for trading back. Because the bottom line is the more players you draft, the odds increase that you'll end up with more contributors. Because the draft is a crapshoot. You know, if you're hitting at 33%, three years after the fact with contributors, you've done well.

Well, the more players you draft, that 33% equals more contributors. Everybody understands that idea. But here's what you can't do. You can't trade back if it means passing on a player that on your board, you have much higher rated than the player you're planning to take when you trade back four, five, or six spots later. You can't do that. Just like Washington may have done in 2011. When they had the 10th pick in the first round,

they traded six spots back with Jacksonville, picked up a second rounder and selected Ryan Carrigan in the first round. Good player. At number 10, Jacksonville took Blaine Gabbard. At number 11, the Houston Texans selected J.J. Watt. Washington missed on one of the all-time greats. and they got Ryan Carrigan a good player and the rest of what the second rounder

that they got back from Jacksonville, which turned into other picks in that particular draft, nobody ended up being a very good player. But you don't move back and pass on a potential great player for the hopes of getting a couple of good players. You just need A players in this league, a plus players in this league, to be legitimate contenders.

So in general, trading back and acquiring more picks, no problem with it at all. But if you're passing on a player that you have much higher rated on your board, that's a mistake. And so, who knows, it's kind of early at this point, but perhaps they made a mistake by not drafting Kyle Hamilton. And instead, ending up with Brian Robinson, Jr., Cole Turner, Sam Hal, and then Johan. Donetson, who was the player that basically replaced whomever they had highly rated on their board at number 11 in that draft. Maybe it was Kyle Hamilton. Who knows? And, you know, it is early on all of these guys, understood. Before we get to Jay Gruden, the Thursday night game, wow. I mean, you know, these games this year, that total was 34 and a half. It was 34 to 17 at half. At

Half time. The Jets won the game, 37 to 20. And in the first half, Joe Flacco threw for 296 yards and three touchdowns in a half against the New York Jet defense. So a couple of things on that game last night or off of that game last night, ending with some thoughts on Joe Flacco on. Number one is this. Kevin Stefansky is definitely, in my opinion, the coach of the year in the NFL. Dan Campbell's lions are a nice story, but it was an expected story. They were favored to win that division. Kevin Stefansky's Browns are on their fourth quarterback. Not to mention Nick Chubb went down early in the season. You can make the case that he's the second best player on that team behind Miles Garrett. They've been ravaged by injuries in a lot of different spots. Last night, They didn't have a Mari Cooper, their number one wide receiver, and they lost Elijah Moore in the first half as well.

And somehow they are 11 and 5, and they have clinched a playoff berth. That crowd, by the way, was awesome last night. I would have loved to have seen Cleveland figure out a way to win the division and get home field. But that only happens if Baltimore loses their final two. They have Miami and Pittsburgh, and Cleveland wins the finale against Cincinnati. What a job by Kevin Stefansky this year. Typically, when you get to your second quarterback, you're done. And he's on his fourth this year.

Next is this. I think the Browns are legitimate contenders in the AFC. They actually haven't played as well defensively in recent games as they were earlier in the year. But they're so capable with Miles Garrett and company of being dominant on defense. and now that they can stretch the field with Flacco's arm, they ran the ball last night against the jet defense. Ford looked really good. If this team had Nick Chubb on it,

I would actually think that they'd be on the verge of making a Super Bowl run. I don't know that the Browns make it to the Super Bowl for the first time in their franchise's history, but they'll go on the road and play the AFC South champion in the first round, more likely than not as the five seed. they may be favored in that game. And then you might get Cleveland at Baltimore in a divisional round game. And they've already beaten Baltimore once in Baltimore with Deshawn Watson.

So I think that AFC with Kansas City looking, you know, anything but what they've been, which is almost unbeatable and they're going to have to play on the road after their first round game anyway. I think Cleveland's got a shot. I think Buffalo does too. I mean, I think the five and six seeds. in the AFC playoffs, Cleveland and Buffalo, are going to have big-time chances to advance and maybe to make a Super Bowl in the AFC. I love Baltimore. Don't get me wrong. They're a very good team. Very good team.

And I would favor Baltimore right now to make it to the Super Bowl out of the AFC. Can't wait, by the way, for Baltimore, Miami on Sunday. That's a one o'clock game. That should have been flipped with Kansas City, Cincinnati and gone to the 425 window. I don't know why CBS or the NFL didn't use flexibility on the times of those two games. But Baltimore, Miami, 1 o'clock, that game will be here locally. You don't have to watch Red Zone or you don't have to have the ticket to see it. That'll be the CBS game with Washington and San Francisco on Fox at 1 o'clock. Anyway, so last thing.

This from Micah. Micah wrote, Kevin, I know you've loved Joe Flacco. But despite his play in Cleveland recently, I still don't get it. He was a jag, as coolly would say, just a guy. He had one good run. So, Mike, I'm not going to go full Kirk Cousins on you right now, because that would be tough for many that are listening. but it's very similar in that Flacco like Cousins,

the narrative just doesn't match with the actual facts. I mean, when you say one good run, I mean, I hope, I think you're being serious, but I hope you'll be open-minded to what I'm about to say. Joe Flacco was never an elite quarterback. Kirk Cousins was never an elite quarterback, although he was trending in that direction this year. I'll leave that alone.

Flacco was never elite, but he was a solid quarterback. Never great. Somewhere in that 14 to 18 range, depending on the year. You know, a top half of the league starter. But the reason that I always loved Flacco, first of all, his arm strength is elite. If you're going to describe anything that's elite about Joe Flacco, you would say he's got elite arm strength. That's actually true.

But the reason that I always loved Flacco is because as kind of, you know, one of those solid, top half-ish, mid, you know, 14 to 18 range starting quarterbacks in the league. He just always rose to the occasion in Baltimore's biggest games. And you'd be like, wow, I had no idea he was this good. Well, the reason is, is during, you know, a regular season game in November, he wasn't that good. But it was much more, Micah, than one good run. Joe Flacco is on the verge of setting the record for the most road playoff wins by a quarterback in NFL history.

It's amazing how many playoff games he played in. He played and started in 15 NFL playoff games. And in those 15 playoff games, 12 of them were on the road. I would have thought Baltimore during that period of time would have had a better regular season record where they would have hosted more playoff games. But they didn't because in part their quarterback was just solid. You know, he wasn't great. He wasn't elite. They had really good teams when he was there.

But where he played his best football was when they had to have it in the postseason. And it wasn't just 2012, all right? That postseason when they went to the Super Bowl, he was brilliant, no doubt. 11 touchdowns, no interceptions, you know, a 115-ish, you know, passer rating. through for basically an average of 280 a game. I mean, he was great in that Denver game when he threw the bomb that forced overtime. And he demolished the Patriots in Foxborough and was great in the Super Bowl. But it was so much more than that one run.

And I'm not going to sit here and go through all of the games. But let me just mention this. They played the Patriots four times in Foxborough when he was in Baltimore in the postseason. They never played the Patriots in Baltimore. four times they played him in Foxborough. Now the first game they played and beat the Patriots, he was just a participant. They ran the ball down their throats with Ray Rice actually and won 33 to 14. But then when Flacco was a little bit older and he was really a factor for Baltimore in these postseason games,

they played New England in the AFC title game after the 2011 season. Flacco was great. 306, two touchdown passes, just a phenomenal game all around, and he had them on the doorstep of the Super Bowl when he threw to a wide open Lee Evans in the back of the end zone, dropped it in the bucket, and Evans let it go right through his hands.

That would have been the game-winning touchdown. They would have gone on to the Super Bowl that year. This was before the Super Bowl run that came the next year, but they missed out going to the Super Bowl because after the drop, Cundiff missed a chip shot field goal so that they didn't even get a chance in overtime. And they lost that game 23 to 20. There was a game in New England two years after the Super Bowl. They had gone to Pittsburgh and he had thrown for 260, two touchdowns,

and led the Ravens at Heinz Field to a 30 to 17 win over the favored Steelers in that game. and that put him in Foxborough for a divisional round game. He threw for 300, four touchdowns in the game. They were up 2814 in the third quarter. They were on their way to another AFC title game. And Justin Foreset fumbled, and then there was another drop pass that got picked off, and they ended up losing 3531.

But he was brilliant in the game. They had no chance. They weren't even that good defensively during those years when they won the Super Bowl and when they beat Pittsburgh and then lost 35-31 in the divisional round game. But they were in those games that they lost because of Joe, and they won a lot of games in those playoff games because of Joe. That's all. That's it. One good run is just so off-base.

Any Baltimore fan will tell you how off-base you are. beloved by Ravens fans and by the Ravens organization for the very reason that I described, not because he was a great quarterback, not because they don't think Lamar Jackson's a better quarterback, but because Old Joe, in the biggest of games and some big regular season games, end of year as well, he's 23 and 14 in Baltimore as a starter in the month of December, or December into January in the regular season. A lot of those games, they had to win, and he played great in. He's really been during his era one of the great clutch postseason, late season quarterbacks of his time. And you're seeing it right now at 38 years old in Cleveland.

Anyway, enough on that. Washington, San Francisco, week 17, Sunday at 1 o'clock. And now we're not sure who's going to start a quarterback. I don't think it really matters. I think if Berset starts, Washington loses like 35 to 10. 23. I actually kind of like them plus the points. It's like 12 and a half. And I think the key to, you know, a cover for Washington would be with Brissette to move the football, keep the football, keep it away from the 49ers. The 49ers had a game a couple of weeks ago against the Cardinals.

Now, that's a more mobile quarterback, obviously, in Kyler Murray. But in that game, the final score was 45 to 29 49ers. The Cardinals actually turned it over twice and there was a defensive touchdown. Charverius Ward, who's played at a very high level, had a 67-yard interception return in that game. But it was 45-29-9ers, but it was a competitive game because the Cardinals moved the football and kept the football. They had like a nine-minute time of possession advantage, ran 18 more plays than the Niners did. And they did it. And they did it. by running the football, not just with Kyler Murray. James Connor in that game had 86 yards on 14 carries, 6.1 yards per carry.

The back that they have at a TCU, Di Mercado had a big day as well, rushed for like 64 yards on just a few carries. I don't think Washington's going to decide to become a run-first football team this week, but that's their best opportunity. And if not, it's got to be quick game offensively. It's just got to be quick game, whether it's Preset or Howl, get the ball out, no dropbacks against Bosa, Hargrave, Chase Young, et cetera. It's got to come out quickly. And look, defensively, I don't think they have a prayer.

I think the 49ers, if they run 50 or more plays, they're going to have 30 plus points. If they run 60 or more plays, they're going to be. going to have 35 plus points. If they run 65 or more plays, they're going to have 40 plus in this game. There's no way to stop them. You know, you have to stop the run first, but that's impossible. And then you've got to be able to tackle. They're the hardest team to tackle in this sport. Kittle and Samuel in particular, never go down easily. I don't think that the reason that Sunday's been a no-chance-or for me all along is that I just don't think they can stop the Niners, and I don't think they can

keep up with them offensively. But I do think there's a scenario with Berset in particular where they move the football, they score some points, and lose by 12, 35, 23. So there's your prediction. If Berset starts, if HALs starts, it's probably more lopsided than that. If Berset starts, I bet he throws a couple of picks against the Niners. They're hard not to throw picks against. And it wouldn't surprise me if he has a couple of touchdown passes in the game. All right. Let's get to Jay Gruden next. Right after these words from a few of our sponsors. This segment of the show brought to you by our good friends at Surfside, D.C. They've got a fajita box that would be perfect for those of you that are trying to come up with a dinner idea for, you know, a small, medium or even large-sized group,

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10 and 4 on his lock of the week on this podcast. 71.4% for a season is incredible. Like when you see these touts out there saying, you know, send me a credit card, send me your Venmo, I'll give you winners, I'm hitting at 84%. Those are lies. Nobody hits at 80% for a season. And pretty much nobody hits at 71.4% for a season. It's a pretty, it's a pretty, it's a pretty damn good role. And I mean, that one wasn't even close last week. I mean, Tampa was up 30 to nothing in that game. They're pretty good, aren't they? Tampa's playing pretty good, and Baker's playing a lot of confidence, which you like. This time of year is when you start to see the good teams start to separate themselves and start to gain confidence going on the

playoffs. And Tampa is one of those teams that could be pretty dangerous. I don't really consider I'm a threat in the NFC, but I'm very impressed the way they played the last few weeks. We'll save your lock of the week for the end of this conversation, so don't give it away right now. We need people to stay tuned for it. But have other people told you, I don't know, are you, in all the other appearances that you make during the course of the week, are you giving out the exact same picks as locks of the week, or are you giving out so many picks that your record isn't anywhere near? where it is on this show.

Yeah, we do so many. On my son's show, it's just fun. We pick every game and every total. Yeah, so it's hard. But I still have a winning record picking every game for the season. That's not easy to do either. Every game, every total. I think I'm like 15, 20 games over 500, maybe.

Well, like the rest of the season, including the postseason, goes this way. There's definitely a business for you heading into next year with a documented record of where you are. Not that you need it. All right. We'll come back to that later on. So I wanted to, we got to start with the whole situation with Sam Hal being benched, officially, Jacoby Brissette being in.

You know, with your experience, give me your best guess as to, you know, what went into the decision out in Ashburn to bench Sam start Jacoby Berset with two weeks left and what's been, you know, a completely lost. season. Yeah, I think it's more based on the last two weeks of production for Jacoby, not so much Sam. I mean, Sam has struggled mightily in his two last two games to get pulled and then see Jacobi come in and play as well as he has, I think made the decision quite easy, really. I mean, it's the first time he came in, Jacoby, he lit a spark and all that stuff.

And that's what's back at quarterback to do, but then against the Jets, and almost come back and beat them, I think you have to play them based on those two performances and Sam's lack of production. So, I mean, you have to give Chicobe a chance to win these last two games. Why do you have to play them when all season long is the head coach, you've talked about this being about Sam's development? And in previous games that were poor games, we're going to let them fight through it. We're going to let them play through it. This is, you know, this is the goal here. We're developing a quarterback that we think has tremendous potential. et cetera, et cetera. Why now?

Well, you want to develop all your young players. It's very important for the future of the franchise, but very similar to Manuel Forbes. If he's not performing, he's getting beat, and he doesn't give your team the best chance to win. Everybody sees that in the locker room. So you have to play the player that is performing at the highest level, no matter who it is, where it is, or where it is.

So quarterback, defense-back, offensive-back, offensive linemen, whoever it is. You know, you want your young guys to develop, but you also don't want to hurt your team's chances to win, because at the end of the day, everybody comes in and they expect the coaches to give them the best opportunity to win on a given Sunday. They don't want to see, we're not trying to develop anybody. We're trying to win on Sunday, and I think that's the ultimate goal, and that's why Ron had to do what he did. All right, so Jacoby Burset definitely played well.

I mean, he's the two drives against the Rams, scores, the first three drives against the Jets, touchdowns. I mean, he was five for five on drives in the two games, and then they handed the three drives. the ball off to try to make the Jets burn three timeouts on the last drive so they didn't really try to move the football there. So we understand Brissette in a normal situation would be the move here. But why has Sam faltered so much? Because this is a part of it. And Ron said it over and over again. We need to give him a break. We need to let him sit back and take a breath. It's almost as if he was saying without actually saying it. Sam's a lot.

little bit broken right now. How did he break? I think a couple things. Mainly it's past protection in my mind. He's been hit a lot. And when you start to get hit a lot, you feel a lot of pressure. Sometimes you start to feel it when it's not there. You start to see see ghosts. I used to say when I was a coach, quit seeing ghost. Every play is its own entity. And sometimes quarterbacks, when they get hit a lot, they feel a lot of pressure. Every play is like a panic drill. It's like an off-schedged, scramble drill. And I think that's the main reason. He's not going through his progressions very well.

He's a Borten mission way too quick at times. And sometimes he has to because the line has not provided him with ample protection. So as a quarterback, if you don't have the confidence to stand in there, go through your progressions, then there's a problem. Because every play you can't just go back to pass and scramble and look for, you know, second, third, fourth, fourth afters boat across your body. It's not good. and I think that's where Sam is right now.

I think he has to get back to having the confidence. Well, I can sit back, go through my progressions, and let it rip. And that's not happening right now. I mean, we've talked about him so much during the course of the season. And some of this is covered ground already. But it's 15 games, and it's now probably the 15-game sample size that the new regime when they come in will use to evaluate Sam because more likely than not, he's not going to play in these final two games.

I would guess. I mean, it's possible that he might. But what will they see in these 15 games? Yeah, they're going to see a tough kid, a very good competitive type guy with some armed talent, but obviously a very young player that needs more work. He's not refined in any sense of the word, but he is a good project to have in your locker room and it's something that the new regime will love to have on their team, whether it's a starter or as a backup to a guy that's going to come in.

So at least they have an option there. But I absolutely think they'll be looking for a quarterback in a draft. They have to. But if they get shut out for whatever reason or choose to go elsewhere, Sam's a good option to have and then probably go out and get a free agent if they don't get one in the draft. Maybe it's Jacoby. Who knows? But yeah, they definitely have to look at their options at quarterback.

Yeah, because if you were in this organization and you just coach Sam during the course of this season and it got to this point, quarterback would be. be a top priority, correct? 100%. Okay. So we've gotten to that point where looking for a new quarterback, whether it's in the draft or as you said, free agency, is going to be top priority for the new regime. Yes. I think even when Sam was playing pretty good, I still think you would still be looking because, you know, they weren't winning games. He's had some good games, some moments where you're

like, wow, this guy could be the future, but there's still doubt out there. And now the last couple weeks, the last four or five weeks, it's clear that they have to look for a quarter by it. One of the things we've talked about during the course of the year is when he was taking a lot of the sacks, that was a problem at North Carolina. It was probably the reason he fell to the fifth round. And I remember asking you earlier in the season that, you know, pro football focus in particular, you know, for whatever it's worth, has essentially tracked the sack, you know, sack stat for a long time. and it's one of those things that doesn't have huge variance, meaning that it doesn't change a lot. Interception rates improve significantly,

but sac rates typically don't. And your answer was, well, it's about being able to see it and process it and feel it and get rid of it and anticipate it, etc. Is that something, and I'll just ask it of you again, is that something that is a flaw that's very difficult to fix? And if so, why? Because it's difficult for a guy like Sam because he's gotten away with some of these off-schedual plays, and he's made some of the big plays off-schedule where he scrambled around.

So some of these quarterbacks think that their athletic ability will get them out of a jam, and they think they can just scramble around and buy time in the pocket and make something happen on every play. And I used to say all the time, hey, don't make a bad play worse. Sometimes throwing away is the only option, and Sam doesn't have that in his head right now. Sam's head is every play's a big play. I'm going to try to make a big play. And that's the competitive nature that he has,

that he's had at North Carolina that he has now. And that's not a terrible thing, but sometimes over the course of a ball game, that's going to cost you on seven or eight plays. And that's what's happening right now with Sam. I mean, he's made some very good plays throughout the course of the game, but there's way too many negative plays. That's why he has to get out of his head.

The other thing I've mentioned to you before, and you've commented on at times, is that just from my standpoint, my observation, Sam is definitely a shorter quarterback. But there have been short quarterbacks that have succeeded for a lot of different reasons. I mean, Russell Wilson never really succeeded from the pocket in part because of his size,

but he was one of the all-time greats off schedule there during those years. in Seattle. Drew Brees and Sean Payton figured it out. When I watched Sam this year, I saw, I always, and I referred to it in this way, he's short and sometimes he really looks short in the pocket, like he actually physically can't see it. Do you think that was an issue for him this year? It absolutely is sometimes. If you go back to pass and you can't see over the line, you have to move in the pocket. And once you move, then you have to move again because some guard or somebody, you feel pressure.

And Russell is a great comparison. You know, Sean's probably pulling his hair out because every play is like an aborted mission or he's going to scramble around and hit the checkdown. And I think that's kind of where Sam is right now. It's a great comparison. And size does matter in the pocket at times. But Drew was a special guy. He stood on his toes.

He would look over his, you know, you can remember the pictures of him on his tiptoes looking down the field and just moving slightly in the pocket. Russell and Sam, they move violently in the pocket like three gaps over instead of just a smidgin. if that makes sense. So, yeah, you have to be able to see in the pocket. And I do feel like Sam plays shorter. That's what bothered me at North Carolina a little bit about him. He got in a crouch position.

He's, you know, when he's 6'1, he plays like he's 5'10 in the pocket, where Drew Brees is 6'1. He played like he was 6'3 because he stood up tall. And that's one thing I think Sam has to work out moving forward. It's his ability to stand up tall in the pocket and play tall, not play short. So if you weren't the coach of this organization, but you were in the front office and, you know, you have proven in the past that you, you know, could have been, and maybe at some point still will be, you know, an evaluator for some team because you've done that very well over the years for the teams that you've been involved in.

But it's crucial. I understand that coaches and players would never think this way. They're playing for jobs. They're playing for their next salary. I think most fans understand that. But from a fan standpoint and from a front office standpoint, losing these two games against the 49ers and Cowboys is crucial. You understand that, right?

Yes. So if you... But yeah, you can't, you just can't lay down. Those guys don't want to lay down. They're not playing for next year. You know, the guys in a locker, they go out and practice and they work, and then they go out and they strap it up against another man across from you. There's no way that you're going to lay down and let that man in a competitive environment.

beat you. It just can't happen in the game. Any sport, really, you're not going to allow somebody else to beat you in a competitive environment. It just can't happen. Understood. This isn't, you know, exactly. You're not sandbagging the first, you know, six holes to get to the last 12. Understood. But everybody understands that. But from a front office standpoint, the difference between picking in the top three in this upcoming draft and picking sixth or seventh is significant, just from a leverage standpoint. And there are things that organizations have done in the past. They have called up players from the practice squad to play some of these. Hey, we want to see some of these kids from the practice squad. We want to see

some of these backup players play. They're going to play hard. Everybody understands that. But, you know, in the game against Washington in 2020, final game of the year, I don't know if you recall this. Washington was playing to win the division in Philadelphia. Philadelphia had nothing to play for. Jalen Hertz was keeping them close. And then they put Nate Sudfeld into the game very suspiciously in the fourth quarter and Washington won the game. And they advanced to the postseason and Philadelphia saved at least four slots of draft position. And the feeling is, it has been all along. Doug Peterson was on his way out, Howie Roseman, you know, chess to checkers for most of the other teams in terms of the kind of GM he's been, that they got the

word down that let's see Nate Sudfeld in the fourth quarter or in the second half. If you were in the front office, would you be thinking that way? I think there is merit to playing young players to get a chance to see what they're like in a game, because there are players that you have. You have to make decisions on their future contracts. have to make decisions on, you know, whether they're good enough to be on your team next year as a backup or a potential starter. And that happens a lot late in the season if you're not in the playoffs. I mean, you could pull up an offensive tackle you might want to look at or a defense alignment. So it is kind of a win-win.

You are allowing those guys to have a chance and an opportunity to prove themselves, but you're also maybe putting yourself in position to not win the game, I guess, so to speak. So, yeah, there is benefits for playing. those type of players in these last two games. Jacobi's an oddball because he's a veteran, and I don't know what his future is with Washington. I don't know if he's a one-year deal or what. It's one. But it could be an opportunity for them to say, hey, do we want to give him a bigger contract next year moving forward?

But I don't even know who's there as a GM making the calls. Is he going to be there? So they don't, you know, Polly Rosemone is going to be there. I don't know if anybody there in the organization is going to be there next year. So it's a unique situation. Yes, it's the owner. It's the owner. We have to make the calls.

and I don't know what he knows about pro football or personnel or any of that matter. He's a basketball guy. Who knows? I don't know who's making these calls. Magic Johnson? I mean, who knows? You know, Tommy Levero and I on the podcast yesterday considered this possibility. If Dallas loses to Detroit on Saturday night and Philly beats Arizona on Sunday,

and Washington loses to San Francisco, which I think we all, whether it's Berset or Sam Howell, they're probably not going to win this game. But the season finale against Dallas could be a completely meaningless game for the Cowboys where they might rest their starters because they'd be locked into the five seed if they lose to Detroit. And at that point, you know, Washington's got a legitimate chance to win that game. And that could cost them multiple spots in the draft. And I said yesterday that as the owner, the new owner, I have been okay with him,

standing, you know, to the side here in the first year, but that would be one of those situations, understanding that none of these people on the staff, probably a lot of the people in the front office, most of the people in the staff aren't coming back, I'd probably say, I'd really like to see Jake Fromm called up from the practice squad with some other practice squad players to play against the Cowboys. Yeah, I think that would be a great call. Actually, Jake Fromm is another guy that you'd want to look at, and that would be, you know, not that he's going to lay down. because he doesn't want to compete because he's playing for his future as a quarterback in the NFL.

But you're right, he probably, that would be a great call, actually. I would probably do that if I was the owner, the last game of the year. It's a meaningless game. You're right. I mean, picking third and picking sixth is entirely different in this draft coming up. Have you started the process at all of looking at any of the quarterbacks that are going to be the top quarterbacks in the draft? You know, I've just seen the guys on TV.

Caleb, obviously, is a freak. and then Drake May is a big physical guy that can run. He's athletic, and obviously the Heisman Trophy. Jaden is special with his athleticism. Those three guys right there alone are worth probably putting Jake Fraum in for the last two games. Yeah. You know, when you mentioned free agency, you know who is available in free agency. He'll be the top quarterback in free agency this year.

Who's that? Kirk. Oh, that's right. You got Kirk. Kirk could come back, and you got Russell. will be available. You can go out and get Russell Wilson. So you've got a chance to get some guys a free agency. I think you can't bank on the fact that you're going to

lose these last two games. So you just let the games play out, see what happens, see how your team is developing, see where you're at, and then go from there and take a look at the free agents and obviously the draft stock. I think Minnesota is going to re-sign him. And is Russell Wilson going to be desirable for anybody? I'm sure he will be for somebody.

you know, who knows? Would you want to? You know, you've got to look at fields too. Fields will be available, possibly, if the Bears have the top pick. So there's a couple of quarterbacks that you can go out and get. And you might be able to get Fields for a second round, who knows? One more on the quarterback situation. How much responsibility does Eric B. Enemy bear for Sam's regression?

You know, a little bit, I'm sure. I think everybody has, you know, when you're an offensive coordinator and your quarterback, struggles. I've been in that position and he like to think that it's not about the plays, it's about the players, I always used to say. So some, I think they're from a protection standpoint. I would like to see him give him a little bit more protection with some more max protection plays on early downs. Let us try to get a seat set and let some plays launch. I feel like they do so much empty stat protection that it's very hard for Sam to see the field because there's so many people in his face at times. I don't know. I think there's some, probably about 20%.

What about just the overall, what we saw and what we've talked about all year long, just the number of pass attempts versus trying to be. I mentioned this early in the year that they're not built to run the ball, unfortunately from a personal standpoint. You know, the tight ends are not good enough in line to be blockers. They never really addressed that, which was surprising. And the offense the line is not a powerful group. They're not very athletic. It's not like they can zip up and get on the second level and run outside zone, and they're not powerful enough to run the gap play as a duos and the powers.

So, you know, they've got to try to spread people out and run inside zones and try to shock people in that regard to run RPO's. And it's just hard to run the ball successfully with that type of group that they have. All right. Let's talk about the games that matter this weekend. First of all, real quickly, what did you think of the Ravens? 49ers game. Yeah, it was, you know, one team came with a chip on the shoulder,

and the other team came in thinking they were the best team since, you know, the 85 bears. And that's what happens from a mental standpoint. And then Baltimore hit them in the mouth early and then just kept hitting them. And San Francisco couldn't get out of their own way. Purdy threw a couple bad picks and had a couple tip balls. And obviously Lamar is Lamar. And I just, Baltimore's offense and defense and special teams combined is probably the best in the league as far as top the bottom, no weaknesses in their game at all.

They can stop the run. They play great pass defense coverage-wise, and they can blitz them offensively. They can run it. They're physical, and obviously Lamar can drop back and throw it. I mean, two games ago, O'Dell Beckham and Zayflower said one catch apiece.

And last week, Zayflower's had over, you know, 100 yards or whatever it was. So they could hit you a lot of different ways, depending on what the week is. That's why they're so dangerous. Do you feel any differently about Brock Purdy after that game? No, no, not at all. I think obviously when you get people at anybody's face and put some pressure on him and force him in some bad throws, things will happen like that.

But I think he'll be fine. I think Kyle and Brock and obviously getting Debo back involved and getting Jenny's back off the streets will help a little bit because he's such a good blocker in his screen game and all that stuff. They'll be fine. So the Ravens beat the Niners, and then this week they get the dolphins at home. I mean, that's a hell of a two-game stretch for them. Is this game your lock of the week or not? Because I want to talk about this game.

No. Okay. So do you give the dolphins a legitimate chance to go into Baltimore Sunday and win? I would like them to have Jalen Waddle. Without Jalen Waddle, it'll be tough. It'll be very tough. But I definitely, I give the Dolphins a chance to win every game that they play with Tyreek and the speed they have it running back and two of the way he's playing. So, yes, I give the Dolphins a big chance.

And I like the way they're playing defense. Now, Vic Vanjou is one of the better defensive coordinators. And they can play zone. They can play man and they can frustrate you. And they get a good enough pass rush where they can make it interesting. So I think the dolphins are definitely one of the top teams in the NFL and have a chance to win at all. The Cowboys had a chance to get a big road win last week and they didn't get it. So they had, you know, the back-to-back games against the Bills and the Dolphins,

and they went 0 for two. They don't have a meaningful road win all season long, more likely than not, given that Philadelphia closes with Arizona and the Giants. The Cowboys are going to start on the road in the postseason. What's your feeling about them after they lost, you know, at the gun against Miami? Yeah, my biggest issue with Dallas is their inability to run the ball in big games, and they're putting too much on DAC. That's a great player, and he can handle a lot on his plate,

but I just feel like they have too much on his plate right now because Powell's not going on in RICO. They've got to get those two guys going in some capacity. I don't want to see Dak having a throw the ball 45, 50 times a game. I don't think they're equipped to do that. And then defensively, they've got to be able to figure out ways to stop the run a little bit better. Those are the biggest concerns.

Run defense and obviously balance on offense. They have to get some balance through these last couple weeks to show people they can run the ball because DAC is really good off the play actions in the boots. But if you're not going to honor any of the runs at all, then they're going to have problems. Did you ever consider Joe Flacco once Lamar Jackson took over in Baltimore? Could ever consider Joe Flacco? As a potential quarterback in Washington, sorry. Oh, no.

I might have. I don't remember if he was available or not. But for us at that time. But Joe's playing pretty damn good right now. I think if he was available, we probably missed out on that. But I'm pretty sure he was under contract somewhere when I was. Yeah, well, I mean, when you guys traded for Alex Smith, he was still the quarter, he was still under contract in Baltimore.

And then in 2019, when you guys drafted Dwayne and brought in Case Keenum, that's the year that he went to Denver when Vic Fangio was the head coach. No, no, he wasn't on our radar at all. Okay. So what do you make of what he's doing and what do you make of the Browns? I think they've done a great job. guy is probably going to be coach of the year. I mean, really, what he's done with his team.

And their defense, Schwartz has done a great job with their defense. Obviously, they have great personality at a top-notch corner in Denzel Ward, and obviously the best pass rusher in the game in Miles Garrett. And then offensively, they're running a ball. They're the most balanced team as far as running a ball different ways. You know, Coach Callahan does a good job with a two tight end, three tight-end sets, and then the play action's off over for Joe. And they keep them pretty well protected.

They don't ask Joe to do a whole lot, but when they do ask them to do something, we've got plenty of arm to get it down the field to Amari, and then Joku's emerges one of the top tight ends in the league. So they're a dangerous football team right now. I feel like everybody's like, ask Cleveland, they're going to make the playoffs, but they're going to get knocked out in the first round. I don't know anymore because the way they're playing defense and the way Flack goes playing. Yeah, what's interesting in watching these games is that before last night,

they actually didn't run the ball well at all in any of his starts since he took over. last night was the first night that they really ran it well. And the other part of it was I actually was impressed at times with the Jets last night and their ability to move the football. I thought Simeon actually looked competent as a quarterback for much of the night. They play good, and running back is pretty good. Hall is really good. He's a big-time player.

When you watch these games, you just wonder how the Jets could be so bad. offense for so many games. And you look at their personality, like they got Hall and they got the receiver's a good player. And it's just weird. And then defensively, everybody thought the Jets were going to be the number one defense in the league with the Williams guys, the linebacker and defensive linemen

and South Gardner and read the corners. And they couldn't stop anybody last night. They were terrible. Yeah. 100%. More dangerous right now. The Rams in the NFC or the Browns in the AFC? That's a tough one.

You look at the Rams and the way they play at Baltimore. They've emerged the last four or five weeks. They're really good. Brighamore said a very good job of that defense, but Stafford is playing at a high level and they're running the ball good. I'd probably say probably the Rams right now because the NFC, I don't know, I think they're both dangerous, really, because they both can run the ball and they both are playing pretty good defense,

but I think the Browns' defense probably sets them apart, So I'll probably say the Browns because their defense of Miles Garrett has a closer. I mean, the AFC wild cards are likely going to include Cleveland and Buffalo, you know, is the five and the six. And then the seven's going to come from a group of indie, Houston, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati. Hell, the Raiders played pretty impressively here in recent games. I mean, I could see Buffalo and Cleveland making deep runs. do you feel the same? Yeah, for sure, because Cleveland's going to get the winner of the AFC South.

Who's that going to be? Jacksonville is playing awful right now, and Indy's going to have, you know, Gardner-Menshoe, and they're okay. And then obviously Houston with the injuries they have, but receiver with Tank Bell, they're going to limp into the playoffs. So I think that Cleveland should win that first game pretty easily, so they're going to make a pretty deep run.

And obviously, Buffalo can beat anybody. We all know that with Josh Allen and Diggs, and now that Cook's run on the ball a little bit better. and defensively, McDermott always has a good game plan for you. So, yeah, those teams can make runs for sure. How about Antonio Pierce in Vegas and the job he's done? Yeah, amazing. Defensively, they were awful early,

and he's done a great job with those guys. I know Marvin Lewis is there as a consultant. A friend of mine, obviously, he's helping out, I'm sure, but I've been impressed with their defense. I'm going to do what they did to Kansas City, the two back-to-back touchdowns and hold Kansas City without a touchdown, I believe, or maybe one touchdown. it's pretty impressive and now they're in position they have a chance to make the playoffs so

hopefully he can hang on and keep that job did you know him at all i do not know him okay but he seems like a good guy i know my nephew's still there he has a lot of good things to say about him all right time for your lock of the week 10 and 4 on the year uh an incredible run here in recent weeks um and some games that haven't even been really that close including the Tampa bay pick last week. What do you got? Well, I'll tell you what. I'm going to take a road dog. They're only getting a point.

But I think the Green Bay Packers go to Minnesota. Minnesota, the quarterback juggling situation, is going to haunt them a little bit. They're going to haul, a rookie for BYU, I believe, this week. And Jordan Love, and I like the way they're getting the running game going. I think they're going to beat Minnesota prehandily. Maybe not a blowout because it's on the road. But Joe Barry's got to get this defense.

going. That's the only thing that scares me, but I think that playing a rookie quarterback, I think they'll be okay. Minnesota's really struggling running the football, and if you can't run the ball, you're going to have a rookie quarterback coming in here trying to throw the ball. They're going to struggle, and I think the Packers knock them out pretty easy. All right. I see more plus one and a halves out there than plus one. So I'm going to give you a plus one and a half. So, you might need that hook, Kevin. I might need the hook. The hook is always necessary when you get it in your favor. 1716 is a winner for you

if the Vikings win by a point. Yeah, Green Bay's defense has just kind of fallen off a cliff here recently because I thought they were looking pretty good there for a while. It's funny how these seasons go, you know. Like there was a moment there where it was, oh man, look at Jordan Love. They beat the Lions on Thanksgiving. They beat the Chiefs, you know, and then they just haven't been able to stop anybody since, basically.

I know, I know. But I just think that Minnesota is so one-dimensional right now. And they have two good, really good receivers. I get it. But Hawkinson's out. That hurts them a lot. He was a big-time player for him in the passing game. And I just think this should be an easy one for Minnesota.

All right. Happy New Year to you. Thanks for doing this. Thanks, Kevin. Happy New Year you and everybody else. All right. Jay Gruden, everybody. There it is.

Green Bay plus one and a half. 10 and 4. It's pretty damn good. Back with my smell test, which is also up for the year. Not at 71% though. I'll have those picks right after these words from a few of our sponsors.

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right now, use my bookie for the free cash bonus and for a place to comparison shop on point spreads, pricing, etc. All right, the smell test last week, five and four. That puts me at four games above 500 for the year. I started this particular weekend off with a loss. Had NC State in their bowl game, the Pop-Tarts Bowl, against Kansas State last night. NC State had it to 2119, and they had multiple possessions to take the lead and couldn't do anything with the ball. And they were stopping K-State all night long. And then K-State completed a third and 13 up 21-19 with about eight minutes to go. was the key play for those of us holding NC State plus three tickets because it propelled them on a

very long clock eating drive that ended with a touchdown and then NC State threw a pick on their desperation drive down by nine. But really that game, third and 13, that may have been the play in the game and they converted it and we lost. So 0 and 1 to start to start the weekend. What do I have the rest of the weekend? Well, three colleges. games, and I'll start with those. Maryland's getting six and a half in the Music City Bowl tomorrow in Nashville against Auburn. The last time we saw Auburn remember, they had Alabama beaten until Jalen Milrow completed the fourth and 31 miracle play, which has Alabama now after beating Georgia in the SEC title game in the final four. Auburn played well in that game. They played well

at times during the year. Maryland's got some key opt-outs and the keyest opt-out, and that is Lea Tunga Viloa is out. By the way, for those that haven't heard, Leah is actually exploring from what I've been told a possible sixth college football season, but it wouldn't be at Maryland. It would be potentially somewhere in South Florida so that the family as a whole could be closer to Tua, who plays for the Dolphins. I don't know if he'll get another year. I'm not sure why he would get another year. Perhaps it's because the COVID year for Maryland was really shortened with several cancellations.

And he only, I think he played four games that year in 2020. I don't know if people knew that or not, but I was told a couple of days ago that Leotung of Iloa is looking for the possibility of another year of eligibility in college football, but that it would not be at Maryland. Maryland will start Billy Edwards Jr. He's played before more of a running quarterback, big dude. The public's on Auburn, and there is some sharp money on Maryland.

I'll take the Terps by the half point from six and a half to seven and take them in a bowl game, which Lox has had them ready to play in their previous bowl games. The two semifinal games on New Year's, the Rose Bowl game, Michigan and Alabama, semi-final game number one. Public is hammering Bama. I'll take Michigan and lay the one-and-a-half. And then the game I really like is Texas. There are some fours out there, four and a halfs out there. I'll take Texas and lay the four in the second semi-final, which comes in the Sugar Bowl on New Year's Night against Washington. Look, Washington's been awesome, and they've been awesome as an underdog as well. I think Texas is really good, and I think they're

going to show it. And the public likes Michael Penix and Kaelin DeBoer and all of the Washington kind of magic that they've had this season. I'll take Texas and lay the four. Let's go to the NFL game. Saturday night, I like the Lions plus the five and a half in Dallas. The public loves the Cowboys because they've been a dominant home team. The Lions really, you know, they clench the division last week, right, with a win against the Vikings who are deficient. offensively right now at the quarterback position. And the Lions haven't played that great other than, you know, the blowout went over Denver in that Saturday night game a few weeks ago, but Denver hasn't been playing well here recently. Remember, they got beat pretty badly by the

Bears a few weeks back. They held on to barely beat the Saints. Their Thanksgiving Day game at home was a debacle against the Packers. They haven't been a good defensive team. The public, you know, Detroit has an 11 and 4 fraud to a certain degree and loves the Cowboys at home. So I'll take a flyer on the Lions. I do expect this game to be a very high-scoring game on Saturday night. I'll take the Lions plus the five and a half in that one. Go to Sunday. Giants are getting a short number against the Rams.

It's five and a half. The Rams right now are the most played team by the public. I'll take the Giants plus the five and a half. How about the Colts favored against a Raiders team that beat the Chiefs on Christmas Day? I'm not so surprised that they're favored, but they're favored by three and a half, and they are not the side for the conventional better here. The better loves the Raiders. They love recency bias. The Raiders beat the Chiefs. They've looked good.

Antonio Pierce is getting a lot of play, which, by the way, is deserved. I hope he gets that job. I think he deserves it. both of these teams are in must-win mode. The Colts controlling their own destiny. Destiny, the Raiders needing a lot of shit to happen to get into the postseason. That three and a half has just been hanging out there all week. I'll buy the half point back to three and take the Colts at home against the Raiders plus the three points.

The Saints are getting two and a half at Tampa, a super hot team. This is a crucial game in the NFC South. If the Bucks win and the Falcons lose to the bears, I think the Bucks clinch before the final week of the season. And I think the Bucks as a division champion in the NFC South with the way they've been playing and playing at home, I think if that's the matchup we see for a second straight year, Cowboys at Bucks as a 5-4 matchup in the NFC, I think the Cowboys might be in trouble this time. Weird that I'm saying that without Brady, but they weren't playing well, the Bucs weren't. last year. This version of the Bucks is, which makes me wonder why are they less than a

field goal favorite at home over the Saints? The public likes Tampa. I'll take the Saints and buy the half point and play them plus three. I've given out the Panthers a lot recently and won three times in the last four weeks with the Panthers. I'll take them again this week plus six against Jacksonville. Is this the week the Chiefs bounce back and show us that they are still the Kansas City Chiefs, especially on offense. They're laying seven against Cincinnati. The public does not believe in KC right now. I'll take a flyer on the Chiefs laying the seven.

And then I like Jay's pick. I like the Packers plus the point and a half Sunday night against the Vikings. The public seems to be playing Minnesota. Green Bay struggled as of late. Minnesota's defense is pretty damn good, although they've given up some yards and points in recent games. I'll take the Packers plus the one and a half. So if we go through this chronologically,

Saturday I've got Maryland plus seven in the Music City Bowl against Auburn. I don't know if the Terps win that game, but I think they'll be prepared for it, and I think it'll be a competitive game. I've got the Lions Saturday night plus five and a half against the Cowboys, the Giants plus five and a half against the Rams Sunday. The Colts laying the three to the Raiders. The Saints plus three with the half point bought against the bucks on the road.

The Panthers plus six, the Chiefs minus seven, and the Packers plus one and a half. And then on New Year's Day, the two semifinal games, I like them both. I like Michigan minus one and a half against Bama, and I like Texas minus four against Washington. Happy New Year, everybody. Thanks for the year that you've given us, and I'm looking forward to another one. Enjoy the weekend. Stay safe. Back on Tuesday, January 2nd.