The Kevin Sheehan Show - Bye Week Helped

Episode Date: December 10, 2024

Kevin opened with Washington's scoreboard watching on their bye week. There was more good than bad. Kevin has all of the updated playoff scenarios on the show to start. He went "Around the NFL", talked College Football Playoff, Terps loss to Purdue, Caps, and Wizards as well. Finally, Derek Stevens/Circa Sports Owner jumped on to talk about taking one of the largest single legal sports bets ever made....$3.1Million on the Eagles to beat the Panthers yesterday.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it, but you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheon Show. Here's Kevin. Robert Greff in the third, 6 to 6 on the Redskins' first possession. He fires down field. He's now 7 for 7 as Garsohn breaks three. The Air Garsohn will not be 88 yards to number 88 for the first touchdown of RG3's

NFL career. No other way to say it, but it's a day that we as fans of this team will never forget. The last time a rookie quarterback started for Washington in the Superdome against the Saints, 2012, RG3's debut. Tommy called it shock and awe in advance. He had a premonition. He said it on our Friday radio show heading into that weekend. And of course, he's never let us forget that he's.

got that one right. The next time a rookie quarterback for Washington starts against the Saints in the Superdome, this coming Sunday, 1 p.m. Eastern, 12 local central time in the bayou where Jaden Daniels returns to the state where he played his final two years of college football. The show's presenting sponsor, as always is Wind Donation. If you're in need of new windows, please give him a shot. Call him at 866.6.9 Nation or head to Windonation. One guest on the show today. I'm really looking forward to this. Final segment of the show. Derek Stevens, who owns Circus Sports, included in that, is the Circa Sports Book in Las Vegas, the largest sports book in the world. He will be my guest. Why you ask? Because late last week, the Circa took a $3.1 million bet on the Eagles' money line to beat Carolina yesterday. It's being reported as one of, if not the largest wager, legal wager ever placed. The better one, barely. The Eagles were huge favorites, minus 700

favorites on the money line. And Xavier Leggett for Carolina had the ball in his hands in the end zone with 20 seconds to go to tie it with an extra point pending. But the nose of the kind of slipped through, touch the ground. Philadelphia prevailed. But you're going to hear the story of how that bet was placed from Derek Stevens, the owner of circus sports. I'm really looking forward to that conversation. For those of you who aren't sports betters, football betters, I think just the idea of somebody walking in with a bag full of money, $3.1 million, and saying, I won Philadelphia on the money line. I don't think that's exactly how he did it,

but Derek will explain in the final segment of the show. All right, the buy week is over for our team, and we're back to a normal week leading into week 15 of the NFL season. I mean, we got four NFL weekends left in the regular season. Yesterday produced, I think, more good news than bad news, results-wise, but really the best news came in Jersey where the Saints did beat the Giants 14 to 11. I had the Giants as a smell test pick. That covered. 2-2 and 1 this weekend on the smell test. So the first non-winning weekend now in seven weeks didn't lose. You lost Vig. You lost

juice. But man, I don't know how I lost that jet game. But anyway, Derek Carr got injured at the end of the Saints game against the Giants. And that appeared to be, you know, encouraging for Washington fans who play New Orleans, and you'd rather see Spencer Rattler or Jake Hainer out there starting for New Orleans than you would. Derek Carr, the Saints have played well recently. You know, they've won three of their last four games. They've played well defensively. Chase Young's played pretty well.

He had three quarterback hits and pressures yesterday. against the Giants. But the Saints have been playing well. They are mathematically alive. If they were to beat Washington, they would still have legitimate long-shot hope. If they lose, I think they're out. So they've been playing well enough,

and they feel pretty good right now about the way they're playing. And Derek Carr would obviously be a big blow if he were lost. Now, moments ago, interim head coach Darren Rizzy said, that the injury is not as serious as first thought. It's an injury to his non-throwing hand. It's being called day-to-day, not week-to-week, and they are still hopeful that Derek Carr can play Sunday against Washington. By the way, another part of Derek Carr's injury update today,

he's in concussion protocol as well. So anyway, Washington, by the way, went from a three-and-a-half-point favorite to a seven and a half point favorite on the news of Carr more likely than not being out. So we'll see how the week goes. Obviously, you'd much rather face one of the two young kids than Carr, who's never been one of my favorite quarterbacks, but clearly they're much better with him than they are without him. The results yesterday in terms of the games that were played,

more good than bad. Seattle beating Arizona was good for Washington. We don't want Arizona to win the NFC West. That's a team Washington's already beaten and would have a tiebreaker advantage over. Seattle now, by the way, has swept the Cardinals. They also have now a two-game lead over the Cardinals. Seattle and the Rams are really the two teams battling it out for the NFC West. Atlanta lost to Minnesota. that was a good result for Washington because we really want Tampa Bay to win the South because that's a team we don't beat head to head in a tiebreaker because of the season opening loss in Tampa. The Packers losing on Thursday night was the best result of the weekend because Washington's legitimately chasing down the six seed as much as they are chasing down the seven seed. The results that weren't great, I mean, it was not unexpected. The Eagles beating the Panthers, the score, the closeness of the game was unexpected, but the Eagles are in the driver's seat. They have been for a while, but now that they've caught up to Washington in terms of total games, they're sitting there with this 10-game winning streak, or 9-game winning streak,

whatever it is. They're 11 and 2, Washington at 8 and 5. they've got a three-game lead with one in hand, you know, in terms of the head-to-head. They'd have to collapse big time, like last year, to lose the division. Washington's playing, you know, for a wild-cart spot, you know, and the result yesterday that really is perhaps the most interesting, and it didn't go Washington's way, is the Rams beating Buffalo 44 to 42 to get to 7 and 6. to see that Rams team and to see how when they are healthy, how good they can be offensively, you know, they're a team to watch right now. They've got a shot to win that division.

They play Seattle in the season finale. They've already beaten the Seahawks once. They could win that division. Seattle could be a team chasing Washington down for a wild card spot. But both of those teams, Seattle and the Rams are teams to keep an eye on for sure. Let me just kind of summarize it in terms of where we are in this moment for Washington and their postseason prospects. Philly's going to win the NFC East.

I mean, they're pretty much a lock. So let's just take that off the table. If Philly had lost to Carolina yesterday, then it was on big time because you still have one left against Philly. They play the Steelers this coming Sunday. So it would have been, you know, still they would have been an, they would, they would have been a long shot to win the division. Philly still would have remained a big favorite.

But Philly now, they've got it almost wrapped up at this point. I'm trying to think if they win Sunday, do they clinch? No, they would be 12 and 2. Washington would be 9 and 5 with 3 to go. I don't think they would clinch it. The tiebreaker obviously would be on head-to-head. They'd split because Washington's got to beat Philadelphia. division record.

You'd need Philadelphia to lose a division game. They'd have to lose to either the Dallas Cowboys or the Giants. And, well, they would because they finish with them if they were to lose their final three. And then you get to common opponents. I think that ties. You know what? If Washington gets back into the division race, I'll go through the division tie-breaking scenarios with the Eagles.

In summary, Washington right now is playing for a wildcard berth, either the six seed or the seven seed. Those two are in play. The five seed's not in play because the NFC North runner-up, Detroit or Minnesota. And yeah, Minnesota is still in the division race is just more likely than not going to have a better record than Washington. I mean, Detroit has one loss right now. Minnesota has two. So you're really playing for either the six or the seven seed. and there are a lot of teams in the mix right now. Green Bay is currently the six at 9 and 4. Washington is currently the 7 at 8 and 5,

but the Rams are the first team out at this point at 7 and 6, a game back of Washington, two back of the Packers. There are other teams in the mix at 6 and 7, Atlanta, Arizona, San Francisco, Dallas, if they were to win tonight against Cincinnati. I didn't mention two teams, Tampa Bay and Seattle, because right now they would be division winners, not wild card chasers. But if the Rams won the NFC West, Washington would be battling it out with Seattle. And if Atlanta came back and won the NFC South, Washington would be battling it out with Tampa Bay. So lots of teams hovering around where Washington is right now in the seven spot. But, you know, as of now, Washington, first of all, beats out most teams in tiebreakers.

Okay? Right now, they beat out the Rams. They beat out the Packers. They beat out Seattle. They beat out San Francisco. They beat out Arizona. All of these teams right now, they would beat out in tiebreakers if they got into a tiebreaker, let's just say at 10 and 7.

The teams they don't beat out right now are Tampa because they lost head-to-head, Atlanta and Dallas. Yeah, I'll throw them into the mix because they've already lost one game. If Dallas made a run and it included beating Washington in the season finale, obviously Washington would lose that tiebreaker. And Washington will have a huge game with Atlanta in the next to last week of the season. So for me, you know, netting it out, 11, if they were to get to 11, that would mean winning three of their Final four, which I think is in play, that's a total lock and likely gets them the six seed. Ten wins is pretty much a lock and I think would get them the seven seed.

And I think nine and eight becomes a problem because you've got a lot of teams right now in the mix. So I think there's a decent chance at the sixth seed, a much better chance at the seven seed. And, you know, are they really going to lose three of the six. their final four to finish nine and eight, I guess it's possible. But if they win two, I feel pretty good about it. Now, cart before horse time right now. The teams they could face when they get to the postseason.

Let's assume they get there is either the six or the seven seed. As a sixth seed, they would face either Seattle or the Rams, whomever wins the NFC West or potentially Tampa or Atlanta on the road. As a seven seed, there are all. only three teams they could face. Philly, Detroit, Minnesota, in terms of where it is right now. All on the road. All right, horse back in front, cart behind, beat New Orleans on Sunday. And they can, and they should. I mean, the Saints, again, are decent on defense. They've got one of the best in Alvin Camara on offense. But if they don't have Derek Carr, that would be huge. They

already lost Taysom Hill for the season last year. That would be big. Dan Quinn said today that Marshawn Latimore, quote, in terms of his readiness, he said a lot of top speed running and hitting, and he's trying to hit these markers that Quinn calls, you know, sort of milestones when he joined the workouts, team workouts today. And the hope is, quote, a full week of practice and a go from there, close quote. So he didn't rule him out, didn't rule them in, but it sounds encouraging, but we'll see how the week goes. Also, Quinn did say that Zane Gonzalez, Zane Gonzalez, that is, will be the kicker Sunday against New Orleans. This from James, James wrote, I saw this right before I started to record this. Kevin, might this just be the first game in New Orleans this year?

The Super Bowl is in New Orleans. No, James, I don't think so, not this year. By the way, Jaden Daniels currently the top vote getter in the NFC in the Pro Bowl voting. How about that? All right. Fans, coaches, players vote on Pro Bowl. It's a third, third, third. And right now, Jaden is the third overall vote getter, but the number one vote getter in the NFC among quarterbacks. Jaden's going to the Pro Bowl this year as a rookie.

RG3 went to the Pro Bowl. Remember, I mean, he didn't go to the Pro Bowl because he got injured in the playoff game. But Jayden Daniels right now is the top vote getter in the NFC for quarterbacks. And he's the top vote getter of all Washington players. There are some other hopefuls here. This is fan voting so far, not player voting or media voting or coaches voting. No media and Pro Bowl voting.

The next. highest is Bobby Wagner, who's fourth overall in voting second in the NFC behind Zach Bonn for inside linebacker. There'll be two of them. So Bobby Wagner's on track to make a Pro Bowl in the NFC. Terry McClureen definitely on track to make the Pro Bowl. Now let me just tell you, he's fourth in overall voting, third in the NFC behind Jefferson and Ammanra St. Brown. But I think, Terry is certainly going to get a lot from coaches and players in this as well. So I think right now, Terry, Jaden, Wagner are locks for the Pro Bowl. Now, there are others, and I think this player will eventually make the Pro Bowl.

The next best vote getter is Fowler Jr. He's fifth overall third in the NFC for outside linebackers, and Frankie Louvue is fourth in the NFC. sixth overall. There are two NFC outside linebackers in front of Fowler Jr. and Louvo, Van Ginkle and Greenard in

Minnesota. They've had great years. I actually think when we get coaches and players voting, I think Louvoo is going to end up in the Pro Bowl. I don't know about Fowler Jr. But I think Louvo will be. Who else was Tyler Beaudish was the

fourth center in the NFC. Probably a long shot. Jeremy Chin was the fourth strong safety in the NFC. So they're kind of, you know, alternate possibilities. But Wagner, Jaden, Terry, and I think Louvo eventually will get there. I think Washington, and this usually gets announced, you know, the Pro Bowl voting gets announced like the next to last week of the regular season. I don't know why they don't wait for the entirety of the regular season.

They just don't typically. but yeah, I mean, you know, when you go to the playoffs and you have the performances of some really good players on your team, it'd be ironic, right, if two of them were on defense, Wagner and Louvo, but I think they're both deserving of it. Terry and Jaden, for sure. Other than that, I'm not going to be upset if Tyler Biotish doesn't make the Pro Bowl or Fowler Jr. doesn't make it. Or if Chin doesn't make it. Anyway, this from Leonard. Kevin. why not talk more about the job John Bates has done this year? He's the best blocker on the team. He's not the best blocker on the team.

Now, if you're talking about the best blocking tight end on the team, by the way, we have talked about Bates. I think Ertz has done a really good job blocking, especially in recent games. Bates, if you go back to his rookie year in 21, he had a hell of a year. I think Bates is a good player. I really do. I think Bates, and look, we're seeing more 12 personnel, one back, two tight ends.

We saw some 13 personnel with Cinnett, Ertz, and Bates in the game. If that trend continues, we're going to see a lot of all of them. I think Ertz has really come up big at times. He's also had some negative plays, drops. No bigger negative play for any of the tight ends than the Bates fumble against the Cowboys. That was a killer in that game. But I think all three tight ends have played well. I think Ertz has been a real comfort for Jaden, his size, his reliability and route running. But I think Ertz, like Bates, has been a pretty good blocker all season long. I have no idea what the rankings are, the numbers from a PFF perspective are.

I would guess that Bates has probably got a better run blocking number than Ertz. but Ertz has been really good in the last few games in particular. So we'll see. All right. Let's get to some of the other key NFL games from yesterday. We've got to talk about the end of the Buffalo Rams game at SoFi. A couple of other games to get to. College playoff is set.

I'm going to hold off on the Juan Soto stuff for tomorrow with Tommy. We'll do the Juan Soto signing that, ridiculous $765 million deal for 15 years with the Mets. We'll talk about that on tomorrow's show in more detail when I've got Tommy with me. But we've got some other stuff to get to before we get to Derek Stevens at the end of the show. And we will start doing that right after these words from a few of our sponsors. Hey guys, no man wants to lose his hair. But for men, it's actually very common. And now with Hymns, the solution is simple. Try Hymns hair loss solutions. You'll be joining hundreds of thousands who got their flowback. Hymns provides you with convenient and quality access

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Nakula is a block. He might go! Nakua! When the Rams are healthy, they are very capable, especially on offense. I mean, Matt Stafford is still getting it done at 36 years old. And when he's healthy and he's got Nakua and Cup and company, look out. The Rams are a dangerous team on offense in particular. That one, the game of the day, maybe one of the two or three best games.

of the year. The Rams beat the bills, 44 to 42. This segment of the show is brought to you by MyBooky. Go to my bookie.com.com. Use my promo code. Kevin D.C. and MyBooky will give you a 100% cash bonus on your initial deposit. Take that opportunity for free money into your account. Right now, the game tonight, five and a half Cincinnati is favored by no smell test pick for. tonight. I'd lean Cowboys. I think I'm personally going to play the Cowboys, but it doesn't totally qualify

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the five at my bookie, and we'll see what happens. Anyway, 2-2-2- as I mentioned, I think I mentioned. If I didn't mention it, 2-2-1 smell test ending the run of six winning weeks in a row. Not a losing week, though. Record-wise not. With Juice and Vig, yeah, you lost a little bit if you just played my plays.

MyBooky.ag promo code, Kevin D.C. So let's first in this segment talk about some of the other NFL games. We'll talk college football playoff. A couple of other things from low-level. teams. Again, I'm going to hold off on the Juan Soto stuff until tomorrow with Tommy. So let's start with Bill's Rams. 44-42 Rams. That was a touchdown pass at the two-minute warning thrown to Puka Nakua, who really is such a good receiver. That was a third down. The Rams had already gone for a fourth and five on that drive at the Buffalo 35. They did not want to kick a field goal. In the situation,

they were in in that spot up 3835. They did not think 4135 would be good enough. With Josh Allen having one of the all-time great performances, three throwing touchdowns, three rushing touchdowns, no interceptions. First time a quarterback's done that since Otto Graham did it in 1954. Josh Allen right now, definitely the front runner for MVP over Saquan Barkley, but Barclay had another big day.

yesterday for the Eagles. But what a football game. The Rams had a 17-point lead twice in the second half. 31-14 and 3821. Wasn't good enough. Here comes Josh Allen and company coming back. The kid, Shakir, had a big day. Cooper's been an amazing addition for the bills. And Josh Allen, in addition to throwing for 342, rushed for 82 yards. He is right there. He's behind Lamar behind Jaden, I think. I would put him as the third best scrambling quarterback in the league, but maybe the second best overall runner in the league. I don't know. Maybe Jaden's number two behind Lamar. It's close. Josh Allen is a load though, man. He does it differently than Jaden does, and even differently than Lamar does. But here's the part of the game that I'm going to spend just a minute

or two on, okay? I know, I don't do that coaching blunder segment anymore. A lot of you have asked for it. I don't know. It got to the point where there was something every week, and sometimes I missed some of the big ones because they happened in college. And a lot of you guys would tweet afterwards and say, how did you miss this one?

How did you miss that one? There's so many each week. But what Sean McDermott did yesterday is essentially cost his team any chance. of winning the game. So here's the situation. It's 44 to 35 Rams, all right? They missed the extra point on that Nakuwa touchdown. They've got a nine point lead, but the bills had all three timeouts left, and they were so explosive all day. You knew they were going to go down and score, and the key was keep your timeouts. If you keep the three timeouts, you don't have to kick an onside kick. And so they went down, and they went down quickly. And after,

a pass interference penalty in the end zone. They had first in goal at the Rams one yard line with a minute six left in the game. Now, the ball was just outside the one it wasn't inches. It was a full yard and some. The one thing, every nine-year-old that plays Madden understands in that spot, you cannot run the football and risk losing too much clock and then put yourself into a position where you can't call a timeout. You have to have all three timeouts after you score for defense.

If not, the game is essentially over. It comes down to you having to convert an onside kick, which we know is like a 4% probability. Sean McDermott, and he blamed it on Joe Brady, the offensive coordinator, who said he called a quarterback sneak. Well, you're the one in charge of managing the clock. You've got to tell Joe Brady, no, we can't run the football here. You've got to call a pass play.

We have to throw the ball first down, second down, third down, and score via the forward pass so that we don't burn too much clock after a run, getting back to the line of scrimmage and running the next play. And God forbid, you put us into a position where we've got to burn a timeout, which should have never been a possibility, even after they quarterback sneaked on the first down. They ran a quarterback sneak, and they didn't get in. And the clock's running, and they called a time out.

Ball game, it's over. You just lost. You've got no chance to win the game now. You just reduce the possibility of winning the game from, I don't know, 40% to 4%. I mean, there was still a chance they could recover an onside kick, but he immediately, with that timeout, put himself into a position where he lost 40 seconds on the next possession, the Rams possession, and now it means he has to kick an onside kick

and has to recover it to have a chance to win the game. I don't get it, man. I don't get how these coaches don't know the simplest of game and clock management situations. You know the worst part is after they called the timeout? They ran another quarterback sneak. He scored on it. He scored on the second goal, but they did it again, which meant if he had missed it, and they had called a second timeout,

now you're not even probably going to get the ball back with like four seconds to go. They actually didn't get the ball back at all. The Rams punted the clock out on the final play of the game. And instead of punting the clock out, if the bills had gotten a stop, there was no guarantee they were going to get a stop. Neither team could really stop each other. But the only chance they had down 44-35 was to throw it into the end zone, keep their three timeouts, kick it deep. I think they should have kicked it deep. I mean, some say they would have kicked an on-side kick anyway. I wouldn't have.

You just don't have a chance of getting it. But maybe they go ahead and try the on-side kick and use their timeouts at midfield after the Rams recover it. but the point is that once they burned a timeout, they lost 40 seconds defensively, which meant the clock would run out before they got the ball back unless they recovered the on-side kick. If they had thrown the ball into the end zone, by the way, if they had thrown it three times incomplete,

they should have kicked the field goal on fourth down. They still needed a field goal. But just horrific management of the clock in timeouts It's just amazing to see, I know I say it every week, these multi-billion dollar entities in the most simplest and easiest to manage moments, screw it up so royally. It's amazing to me that an owner doesn't say, I'm not going to allow you to do that again. We had a chance to win the game, and once you called that time out, our chances were essentially as close to nil as possible. possible. Why would you do that? I've got to find you somebody that knows how to do this, so you don't embarrass yourself and our team. But we see it every week. Nobody seems to do much

about it. There's some team. I'll tell you one thing. The coach on the other side line, Sean McVeigh, would have never happened to him. Other games, a big, big result for the Rams. I mean, the Rams right now are sitting at 7 and 6. They have the 49ers on 30s. Thursday night on the road. The 49ers won yesterday. They're not out of it yet at 6 and 7. They have the jets on the road, the Cardinals at home. They finish with Seattle. If they can stay within a game of Seattle, they'll play Seattle for the NFC West title in the season finale in SoFi against Seattle. They've already beaten the Seahawks once. So the key for the Rams is stay within a game of the Seahawks. And then that would probably be the walkoff at the end of the year for the division.

in terms of the Sunday night season finale. That's certainly in play right now. The Rams are dangerous offensively, man. Also worries me, right? Because the Saints really shut this same team down last week. I mean, the Rams were a totally different offensive team against the Saints last week than they were against Buffalo. And they had Nakua and Cup and Atwell and Kyron Williams.

You know, they just were up against a better defensive team, Yes, in New Orleans? Just something to keep in mind with the Saints on Sunday. Elsewhere, we talked about the Eagles. Look, the Eagles were complaining after the win that they're not passing the ball well enough. I don't know, man. They're not. Okay, but they run the ball with the best in the league, and they stop the run with some of the best in the league. And they just won for the ninth straight time to get to 11 and 2, and they are basically on the doorstep of a division title and potentially a one-seed. in the NFC. Sequin Barclay, 124 yards, 6.2 yards per carry, still on pace to break Eric Dickerson's record. Got to give a lot of credit to Dave Canales and the Panthers. They have played so

competitively since putting Bryce Young back into the lineup. I mean, they won two in a row over the Saints that got Dennis Allen fired, and then the Giants. And then they had a shot against the Chiefs, Bucks and Eagles in their last three. They play the Cowboys on Sunday. They're favored over Dallas on Sunday. You know, that's why when you look at the NFL, you can't, you know, Carolina at one point this year looked like easily the worst team in the league, not even close.

And now there are five or six teams that are worse. Tennessee, Jacksonville, Cleveland, the Giants. You could probably say at this point with the coaching change in Chicago, Chicago, you could say maybe the Jets or the Patriots. I mean, Carolina is playing nowhere near as the worst team in the league. Where else? Kirk's return to Minnesota did not go well for his team, the Falcons.

He threw for 344. he did throw two interceptions, two more. This has been a tough stretch for him, but offensively, Atlanta had 500 yards, 498 yards of offense against arguably the best defense in the NFL. And their issue was they had three turnovers. Kirk had two, but the killer was in a 21-21 game. The Vikings scored to make it 28-21.

It was a back-and-forth game, and they fumbled the kickoff return. and Minnesota was in the end zone a few plays later, 35-21 kind of game over. I think Atlanta, believe it or not, I know that I said a month and a half ago almost, they're really not that great of a team, and Tampa is a better team, even though they got swept. I think Tampa's got a shot to win the division. I called that five, six weeks ago. Let me call this right now.

Atlanta ain't done yet, all right? They showed a lot of life. That score was not indicative of the game. That was a 21-21 game going into the fourth quarter. Sam Darnold, by the way, five touchdown passes. Good for him, man. Perfect situation. Kevin O'Connell.

Both Addison and Jefferson had over 100 yards and five touchdowns combined. There were so many coverage messups for Atlanta. Minnesota, what a season they have had. And yeah, it made sense to move on from Cousin. because they had all that money to upgrade their defense, which they did. Elsewhere, the Steelers continue to roll. Their only lost during this stretch was the snow game against Cleveland. How about Dustin Hopkins, man?

He is, they signed him to the biggest contract for a kicker in the league, you know, early in the season or before the season started. He missed two more in Pittsburgh yesterday. Steelers over the Browns 27 to 14. We mentioned Seattle. They're impressive. You know, they're now all of a sudden, eight and five. They've won four in a row, two of them in the last three weeks against the Cardinals.

Defensively, they're healthy, they're well-coached. McDonald's really doing a good job with that defense. And offensively, they didn't even have Walker yesterday. Charbonnet was great. Their receivers are outstanding. Gino can play. He completed 80% of his passes against Arizona yesterday. Seattle, looking more like a team that may have to be.

reckoned with, but the Rams could end up winning the division. But that was an impressive game by the Seahawks. And then in terms of importance, the Buccaneers are rolling. Todd Bowles doing a great job. They're getting healthier. They beat the Raiders, although that game was close entering the fourth quarter. The dolphins won an overtime. I had the Jets plus six in the smell test. I know a lot of you had it at six and a half and probably won. And, oh, last night, of course, the Chiefs. Chiefs, that was a smell test pick.

Man, I didn't like it before kickoff for a number of reasons, but I kept it in there. They're up 13-0. And then that final drive, they're down 17, 16, 3-third down Mahomes plays. I mean, the dude with the game on the line, nobody's better. And then their kicker, their third string kicker, Matthew Wright, doinks won in off the left-up right to win it. the Chiefs just won 19 to 17 at home for the second straight week. They beat the Raiders by the exact same score, 19 to 17. I mean, everything's broken right for them.

And now with the bills losing, they do play the Steelers later in the year. The Steelers have a shot at the one seat, I guess. But really, the Chief's looking like they'll be hosting the biggest games in January and the road to the Super Bowl will go through Arrowhead. once again. Not last year, but this year, yes. All right, a couple of other things. Again, we'll get to the Soto stuff tomorrow. The college football playoff, I have no issue at all with SMU in over Alabama. I think it makes sense. Alabama's lost Oklahoma. If you didn't want to be on the fence,

on the bubble here on Selection Sunday for the 12-team playoff, don't get blown out in Norman by Oklahoma 24 to 3. It wasn't just that they lost that. game. They couldn't stop a team that couldn't score all year or move the football, and they couldn't move the football against a good defensive team in Oklahoma. If they lose that game 27, 24, and overtime, they're probably in. But that loss was hideous. I think SMU's actually pretty good. I do. And they came back in an exciting ACC title game. Clemson won it with a walkoff, you know, 56-yard field goal. I don't think Clemson's very good. good at all. But they get in. Again, the big story, SMU over Bama. I actually think in some ways

South Carolina and Ole Miss had a better case than Bama. I'm fine with that. They have to fix the seating. They're seating based on conference champions from the top four. The four best conference champions get by, so that was Oregon clearly, Georgia, yes. But then Boise got a three seed and a first round by. Arizona State got a four seed and a first round by. The problem with that is that it's unfair to a team like Oregon who now plays Ohio State Tennessee, the winner of that game, versus say, you know, an SMU Boise winner or an Indiana SMU winner. You know, it just is unfair for even the higher seed of teams. I think next year they'll go to seeding the field one through 12 based on strength, based on where they have them ranked.

But they'll create the field with the system they have now. Cannot wait. How about those first round games? That first Friday night, December 20th, Indiana at Notre Dame. In-state battle, I mean, nobody had Indiana, but how about South Bend hosting a game? And then on Saturday, SMU at Penn State, Happy Valley hosting a playoff game.

Then it's Texas in Austin hosting Clemson and Ohio State in Tennessee at 9th. night. I think going into this playoff, Ryan Day's got to win at least if he loses to Tennessee at home, he's done. I think Franklin, with the setup they have, they have SMU at home, and then they would play Boise in the quarterfinals. I think Franklin better get himself to the semifinals. They couldn't stop Oregon at all in that game Saturday night. This will be awesome, though. A couple of other quick things. Maryland and Purdue yesterday.

What a game. Terps are legit. Would have loved to have gotten that game. Derek Queen, 26 and 12, Gillespie at 18. Maryland's a legitimate, you know, top 20-ish kind of team. They're not there yet. If they had won, they would have really been, you know, probably bounced into the top, you know, 22, 21 area somewhere there.

They're going to be ranked before this season is over. They're a tournament team. I'm not just saying that because I say, had always. I mean, they have studs. They are talented. They had a five-point lead at half-time. One point, they had an eight-point or seven-point lead in the second half against Purdue. And they couldn't stop Braden Smith. He made everything he looked at. They gave up 52 in the second half. Their defense wasn't good enough. Took some bad shots, some rush shots, but I am so encouraged and really legit excited about how good the Terps have a chance to be.

be like this is a team that has pros, like a top 10 pick, top 15 pick and queen. And they got a big time college point guard right now. They got shooters. They've got a defensive presence. I think a key in yesterday's game was Juju Reese getting in foul trouble and then fouling out. You know, didn't love some of the calls. But Maryland's legit, tough one because no moral victories, you know, for Maryland basketball. ball. None. That was a winnable game. They lose it 83 to 78. The caps are on fire. My God,

they're the best team in hockey right now are tied for the best team with 40 points. And the Wizards finally won a game, broke their 16-game losing skid in a game Saturday night against Denver in which Nicola Yokic had 56 for the Nuggets. All right, we will finish up with Derek Stevens, Derek, the owner of the Circa. Looking forward to that right after these words from a few of our sponsors. Euro step around that hot take and make a play today with Robin Hood. With a 3% boost on your annual IRA contributions with Robin Hood gold, your money starts working for you.

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Don't miss out. Schedule your fast-free in-home estimate at 86690 Nation or visit windonation.com. All right. Joining me right now, as I mentioned in the open to the show, and I'm looking forward to this, is Derek Stevens. Derek is the owner of circus sports. If you're looking, by the way, and I've mentioned this a few times in the past, If you're looking for a place in Vegas to go out for a weekend, watch football, or maybe it's the NCAA tournament with a bunch of friends, there's no better or bigger sports book in the world than the Circa. It is a phenomenal experience. The Circa out in Vegas is the best. But I asked Derek to come on the show because of what I talked about briefly in the open, and that is this wager that was placed. by somebody late last week, $3.1 million on the Eagles, on the money line against Carolina

yesterday. The Circa took the bet. It's one of, I think, one of the largest wagers ever made. For those that aren't really familiar with all of this, and I've tried to make them familiar with some of it over the years, Derek, talking a lot about sports gambling on the show. but just share with everybody the nature of this sized wager and just kind of your reaction when it came in. Well, Kevin, great to talk to you. Great to talk to D.C. here. Yeah, you know, we had an opportunity. We had an individual that wanted to make a play on Philadelphia last weekend, and, you know, we took the million dollar bet, but then the customers said they wanted more. and lo and behold it got up to

$3.1 million a customer bet at minus $700. You know, for Circus Sports, we're kind of known as taking big bets. So I kind of thought that with three days to go, our team was going to

have enough time to go out and, you know, get a little bit of buyback out there. We got a little bit. We didn't get as much as we wanted to. So we went into the game, you know, needing Carolina.

We thought we had a shot at the end at the end. You know, he got the last drive and all that. But effectively, you know, really when we took the bet, we thought that we were going to have enough time to get all the buyback. And unfortunately, it just didn't happen. The line kind of ran away from us. So I guys did a pretty good job on buyback. We just didn't get as much as we wanted.

Yeah, for those unfamiliar, the buyback would be on people playing Carolina on the money line back the other way. I would imagine that you made it attractive for people to take Caroline on the money line as attractive as you could. Yeah, you know, when we took the wager, the customer bet the $3.1 million at odds of minus $700. We immediately moved to a bigger number, but the buyback was at plus $600. And we thought in the marketplace, we thought we would stand out because most other shops had Carolina at plus 500 or plus 475. So we only had about an hour where we really stood out differently than the market. Then the market just kind of shifted up to our number, and we couldn't get that much buyback after that.

But yes, we did make it very, very attractive to those individuals wanted to take a shot on Carolina. And actually, they got a pretty good sweat because you got the ball. You got the last five, two minutes to go. It could have it. Yeah, I mean, Xavier Legget had it in his hands in the end zone with 20 seconds to go. So before we get to yesterday and how you watch the game and the reaction to everything there, did you know this better? Was this a familiar better to you?

Yeah, it's a no customer for circus sports. Sure. And is it something that remains kind of private? Are you allowed to talk about who it was or not? Oh, no, we're not going to do that. Didn't think so. I need to keep the customers information. Sure.

Private all that. You know, we can talk about it about here and there. You know, oftentimes I talk a lot about, you know, on the various shows, whether it's on a radio show or on D-Cinn or something like that. I talk about what, you know, what side we're long on, you know, like we're 300,000 long on this side or that side. A lot of people kind of like to know what side the house needs. So we try to be pretty open and transparent about that,

particularly because, you know, Circus Sports is the one company that takes big bet. Yeah, I'll talk to you about the side the house needs because that's been my betting strategy in a segment that I've called the smell test for about 20 years now. But back to the actual wager. So just tell everybody, how does somebody make that wager? Did they literally walk up to the window for that first million? How does that transaction take place? Well, yeah, I mean, it could happen in a number of different manners.

So, you know, you could walk up, you could walk up at a counter in Las Vegas. You know, we've got retail sports books in Illinois, in Kentucky, and in Las Vegas. We also have our online books in Iowa and Colorado. So there's a number of ways. You can walk up to one of the retail counters, or you know, you can wire money in and fund the online app and bet it online. So there's a few different ways of doing it. Why do you think he chose to do it in million-dollar increments? Well, initially, what we did is we took a wager of the million dollars.

So that was kind of what our limit was, our normal limit. And then the customer came back and asked for more. So that's kind of how it occurred and how it developed that way. All right. So the limit was a million dollars. So when he comes back and asks to bet more, just what's the process for someone like you? You've been in this business for a while.

You really understand it. And I think the intricacies of how it works on your end are so interesting to people like me. So this is probably your call, right? Like, are you going to accept it or not? And what goes into that decision? Well, you know, it really kind of comes down on a situation. And, you know, when a wager gets made on Thursday for a Sunday game, we're going to be more willing to take bigger numbers

because we've got more time, we've got more time to be able to create buyback. You know, we certainly would not have taken a wager of this size, a half hour before kickoff because you have no time to be able to work it a little bit. So we thought, you know, three hours or three days before kickoff, we'd have ample time to go get byback. And like I said, we did get a good amount. We just didn't get as much as we wanted to because the line kind of ran away from up. Right.

So let's go to, you know, yesterday. It's a one o'clock kick. You know at one o'clock what your exposure is. You just said, we didn't get exactly the buyback we needed. So you were big Carolina fans when this game started. You got all these other games going on, and you've got, you know, so much going on as the head of a sports book. But were you dialed in on this game more than any other? You know, we took a good amount of action yesterday.

So we had action on every game. I don't want to say this game was any more of a decision. than others, to be honest, because, you know, let's just say, let's just say it's 20 minutes to one on the East Coast, so 1240, and all of a sudden you take a $100,000 bet on one of the early games. You could take another $100,000 bet, another $100,000 bet. So, you know, there's a myth out there that people think that sportsbooks always get two-sided action, but that's just definitely not the case, you know. We could end up being long, we could end up being long one side or the other.

long one side of the other on every game. So I wouldn't say the Philly, Carolina game was a game that we paid any more attention to than any of the others because we had the pretty big decisions yesterday. I have a feeling I know what some of those big decisions that you were in need of yesterday where we can get to that in a few minutes. But real quickly, what did he win? I guess at minus 700,000, what was it? 400,000 plus somewhere in that neighborhood?

I think it was like, I think he won like 442,000. Not a bad haul, although he really had to sweat it there at the end. Just curious, do you think it's a good idea for people to bet big NFL favorites on the money line? You know, that's a great question. And, you know, it really depends. I mean, a lot of people would never put up big money to win, you know, a much, much smaller amount. at the same point, when you think about it, you know, what's wrong with a 15% return? You know, I think a lot of us will sign up to a return like that in an investment.

So, you know, I think it's just situational. You know, I mean, the line ran all the way up to minus 1100, where you're only getting, you know, a 9% return. So I think it really depends upon the situation. Obviously, this play, this played out well for the big customer. And this guy didn't buy it back somewhere else? No, no, no, I don't think so. I don't think so. I mean, fortunately, Circus Sports has a tremendous amount of liquidity.

And what I mean by that is circus sports, because we're known to take big bets, we have a lot of people with large, large, you know, dollar amounts in their betting accounts. So we know that we'd be able to get, you know, a lot of our other customers to get the buyback. And that's what we saw. We just didn't get as much as we want. But, you know, we covered a few million of that. Has he already come back to collect it, or has he already had it wired? You know what?

This just happened yesterday, so I'm not sure about that. I don't know. If I did know, I don't know that I'd bring it up. I want to write it up to this particular point. player. I hope he comes back and wants to play with us again. He won the bet, obviously, but I would guess that this is the kind of wager that's actually really good for a sports book like yours with the attention that it got. Yeah, you know, it's pretty cool. I mean, to think, you know, when this came out,

you know, I didn't realize this was like the biggest regular season bet in, I guess, in history. I found that out after the fact. But yeah, it's really great because what does is it creates this multiplier effect where you have other people with it, betting against it, so it's just kind of compounding. So it was a pretty cool deal. I'm really glad Circus Sports should be part of it. So I just want a quick thought or two from you on just the idea that I've actually promoted for many years on this show, like 19 years on this show. I do a segment every Friday called The Smell Test. And it's basically taking the games that

you know, don't really make a whole hell of a lot of sense and are attracting a ton of public action. And I just go the other way. It's your, you know, now it's kind of run of the mill, contrarian, you know, against the public, trying to figure out who the house has and have that side wagering philosophy. What do you make of that? Because it certainly seems like a lot of people in recent years want to know who the house has, aren't afraid to, you know, wager against what looks to be kind of obvious. And I'm just curious from your standpoint.

You've been watching this for years. What do you make of that? Well, I think one thing, you know, a lot of people always ask about is, well, this is this, is this public money, this and there? I would say that's becoming more difficult to differentiate because there's so much more information out there. You know, I don't really know that I can differentiate between sharp money and public money

that easily. I can only really kind of judge by money. You know, obviously you've got some some betters that really specialize in one thing or the other. It could be golf, could be, you know, NASCAR, could be college football or college basketball. You know, you take their selections,

maybe you value them a little bit more. But it's tough. And to say when you start taking a look at bet splits, you know, ticket counts versus money counts, I think it's a pretty tough way to evaluate which way you're going to play. I'm a believer that, you know, watching teams, watching teams strength, how teams some teams just get better throughout the season,

some teams get worse, really paying attention, into injuries and the strategy going into a game. I still kind of feel that that's a little more valuable for a player. You mentioned already that you don't even out the books on every single game, and you typically need a side. You need a decision to go one way or the other. One way or the other is better typically for the book. Is it a rush for you to sit there,

Saturdays and Sundays and watch these games knowing, you know, which side you typically need, which total you need, which money line you need? I love it. I mean, if you're in Circular Las Vegas on a Sunday, I can tell you, it's a bucketless thing to do. Yeah. So it's the energy, the entire place, the world's largest sports book, the money coming and going.

You know, just this weekend was terrific. I mean, I ended up in my spot watching football all weekend long. We film a documentary every Sunday, so we're all being filmed. We had, you know, four majorly baseball players popping in and out. They're all playing, having a great time. We got because of UFC, we've got some UFC fighters. We had some Power Slap guys. We had the super heavyweight champion to Hawaiian, the crazy Hawaiian coming, hanging out.

We had a bunch of actors from Yellowstone because rodeos out here hanging. So it's just a great environment. It's just a lot of fun. and, you know, when you come to Vegas, people come with so much money. And so the expectations are so high. It's just a lot of fun. So, yeah, I get a rushed out of the whole blend of it. It's an amazing Sunday afternoon.

Yeah, your spot is ridiculous. It is an absolute must, at least once for all of you that are into Vegas trips and sports betting. Their stadium swim sports book is worth the price of admission on its own. But if you're planning one of those trips out to Vegas, maybe for an NFL playoff weekend in January, Super Bowl weekend for sure, you need to check out the Circa. Derek Stevens is the owner of all of it, and he is joining us right now. Just a couple of more, Derek, and I really appreciate your time. College football playoff is going to be a huge weekend talking about weekends that it would be great to be out there. game on December 20th and then three more on December 21st. Do you have any sense so far? I know it's only

been 24 hours as to where the action's going and whether or not you guys will have, you know, a big decision on any of the four games? No, it's a little bit too early. You know, I mean, we took, we took $3,000 aside, you know, when we posted yesterday. You know, we'll be taking $100,000. 100,000 aside as we get closer. So I would say we've probably only gotten about, I don't know, 2 to 5% of the total handle-in. I think these matchups, though, are going to be spectacular. I would tend to believe you're going to start seeing a little Indiana money,

you know, plus 7 a half, plus 8. I think you're going to see that. And I do think you're going to see some Penn State money. I think Penn State, I think all the things, favorite choice. Penn State, Texas, I think they're all going to be heavily, heavily wagered from a money-line perspective and actually teased as well, just because these are all pretty good teaser numbers in college football. But as far as which way, which way, it's a little bit early right now to give any indication. Yeah, those teaser numbers, you know, at seven and a half to ten, you get, you know,

whether it's a two-team or a three-teamer, you get it to where, you know, the better things will have all they got to do is win the game, and that's always big. Have you looked at the FFel card for this upcoming. First of all, do you have a big need tonight or not? Yeah, we're going to need, we're definitely going to need the Cowboys tonight. Cowboys have not, you know, they're not America's favorite betting team. You know, we're going to be stuck with that. Yeah.

So that's kind of where we're going to be tonight. I'm pretty sure about that one at this point based upon where all the money's gone so far. And then, you know, looking at next week, so unfortunately, I'm sure we're going to need the Giants. The Giants just continue to disappoint, which, you know, your commander's fan is probably a good thing. Well, I gave out the Giants yesterday, and they got it done. And the Jets pushed for me. I would imagine that you needed them a little bit yesterday, too. Yeah, we definitely needed the Jets. I mean, the Jets implosion, that's going to be a team that we're going to need probably most of the rest of the season. Yeah.

The two big games next weekend, they're both at the same time. Detroit's minus two over Buffalo and Philly is a five, five and a half point spot at home against Pittsburgh. Do you have any idea which way these two will go? Well, I mean, the Lions have really kind of become a miracle's team. So we've booked it in a way that we try to get a little aggressive and get out front of it because we know we're always going to get Lions money. Lions minus two at home against Buffalo. It's going to be, I mean, that's going to be obviously a signature feature game of game of the week. That should be the most wagered game of Week 15, I would say.

and I think we're going to try to stay out front of it. If we're getting too much lines money, we're going to be quickly moving to two and a half. God, I hope we don't have to go to a three to get goals by that. One more for you, Derek. And this is just out of total interesting curiosity. And it's a little bit off the beaten path here. But the other night, Penn State in college basketball,

was a two-point favorite over, Purdue. Purdue was the number eight team in the country. Penn State was unranked. And you see games like this pop up all the time, not just in college basketball, but in a lot of different sports. And I'm just curious because you guys don't always set the number. But when you see something like that, in your position, when you see a number that just, you know that everybody's going to look at it and say, well, that doesn't make any sense. It's like the wrong team is favored. And yet we see these pop up, you know, all the time. How do you react when you see a game like that? Well, to be honest, I'm really not the college basketball guy.

I know a lot of people were talking about the game. And I know there was an awful lot of people watching the game. But, you know, I'm a big believer in markets, you know, markets generally generally tell you, if you can't figure something out, if I see a number that I'm really scratching my head on and I'm wondering about it, that just makes me want to go out and do a little more research to try to figure out what I'm missing. I believe markets are generally, generally on point. And if I see something way, way off in my own mind, I'm like, okay, what am I missing? What am I missing? What am I missing? So that's kind of way I would evaluate like the game last night.

When you see something like that that makes you wonder, do you always find an answer to that or not? No, no, no, you don't. That's the thing. That's the thing about sports better. You don't know. Somebody might know something that you don't know now. You don't know during the game. You don't know after the game.

So now it's always a mystery. It's always a mystery. Always a mystery for sure. Nobody ever really has it figured out. By the way, for those wondering, Penn State absolutely. blew the doors off 8th ranked Purdue in that game that I was referencing. Derek, thanks so much. This was so interesting.

I really appreciate it. Wish you the best. Hey, Kevin, thank you very much. I love seeing the commanders fans out in Vegas. And hopefully we have a great playoff around here. So hopefully we get to see you and all your listeners out here at some point in Vegas at Circus. So thanks a lot, man. We'd love to do it.

Thanks again. All right. See ya. All right. That is it for the day back tomorrow with Tommy.