The Kevin Sheehan Show - Championship Throwbacks!

Episode Date: July 9, 2025

Kevin opened with thoughts on the alt uniforms the Commanders' unveiled today that will be worn in three games this upcoming season. He also had news on the other alt uniform the team will wear for on...e game in 2025. Warren Sharp was a guest for the rest of the show with a ton of thoughts and predictions on Washington's upcoming season.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:02 You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Sheehan Show. Here's Kevin. Big football show today, and it's going to be a lot more than just uniform talk, although that will dominate this opening segment. Warren Sharpe's 2025 football preview book is out.
Starting point is 00:00:25 He's my guest. He's a good one starting in the next segment. The show's presenting sponsor is always Windonation, 86690 Nation or Windonation.com If you need new windows, mention my name, and I promise you they'll take really good care of you. So by now, you know what they look like. I think they look really good.
Starting point is 00:00:49 I got a text from a friend of mine just after 9 a.m. that read Championship uniforms. And so I knew then to a.m. immediately go to the team's Twitter page, and there it was in all of its glory. The unveiling of the team's alt uniform that will be worn in three games this upcoming season, there's going to be another alt uniform worn in a fourth game. More on that coming up in a few minutes. But the primary alternative uniform for the upcoming year is the uniform the team wore
Starting point is 00:01:29 during the heyday of the 80s and 90s, the championships uniforms, the uniforms they wore during their three Super Bowl championship seasons minus the old logo on the helmet. The helmet will have the current W logo on it. But here is the description in case you haven't seen it. I'm assuming every one of you has. But this was the press release that came out from the team. this morning. Quote, the uniform design draws inspiration from an era that saw the team win three Super Bowls and four NFC championships under the leadership of coach Joe Gibbs and featured many
Starting point is 00:02:13 iconic legends. The uniform's latest rendition has been intricately designed to pay tribute to the club's storied past while also appealing to a new generation of fans. Cut for modern performance, standards, the Super Bowl-era uniform mimics that of the one worn all three Super Bowl years during the 1980s and 1990s. The white jersey is complemented by burgundy numbers outlined in gold on the front, back in shoulder pads, as well as burgundy letters outlined in gold on each player's nameplate and burgundy and gold stripes on the sleeves. Burgandy pants are accompanied by white and gold stripes, and white socks are enhanced by burgundy and gold striping. The helmet features the iconic gold face mask and striping pattern worn for all three Super Bowl wins
Starting point is 00:03:15 with the addition of the current logo, that current logo being the W. Now, they announced that these uniforms would be worn in three games. this season. The first on November 2nd at home against Seattle. That game is scheduled for Sunday night football. Then again on November 30th on Sunday night football against Denver at home and then against Dallas at home on Christmas Day. This was the quote from Mark Klaus, the team's new president. He comes from the consumer goods industry. He's a brand guy. He was hired back in March. And by the way, the team's done a really nice job of not, you know, making him a big voice or face when it comes to football matters like we had for three years when Jason Wright was the team president. That's something that I think, you know, I don't think I was the only one to mention this to a new ownership that the team president shouldn't be the face of the franchise. Most organizations don't even know. who their head of business is.
Starting point is 00:04:32 But Mark Klaus in a press release other than his introductory press release is quoted in this because it does have to do with brand. And he says, quote, we are excited to celebrate Washington's incredible history with these iconic Super Bowl era uniforms this season. Ever since Josh Harrison, our ownership group acquired the team back in 2023, they've placed great value. you in finding ways to connect the past and present and honor those that made the burgundy and gold what it is today. These uniforms recognize the most successful era of our franchise, one that reflects a culture of excellence and encompasses many historical moments and special memories amongst our fan base. Our coaches, players, and the entire organization could not be more excited to celebrate our team's legacy while creating, while creating new,
Starting point is 00:05:29 memories in these uniforms this season. When I saw it for the first time on social media, I smiled. I really did. You know, it was a picture, a snapshot of Jaden Daniels flanked by Zach Ertz and Jeremy Reeves standing in front of a mock-up of RFK Stadium. They looked great. They looked like they played for the Redskins. the uniforms might not be as important as the name in the conversation about reconnecting with the team in a way that feels like it used to,
Starting point is 00:06:08 but the uniforms are a part of it. They're a part of the branding. All of it goes together. And that picture of those three players wearing that uniform, again, not the helmet, exactly, but the uniform that Daryl Green and John Riggins and Joe Thaisman and Art Monk and Gary Clark and Dexter Manly and Charles Mann and Joe Jacoby and Russ Grimm and Jeff Bostic and Doc Walker that that uniform that all of those icons wore seeing Jaden Daniels with Reeves and Ertz on each of his sides, it was just seeing those jerseys in that way made me think that I might feel like I'm watching my team when they suit up in these things in November. Of course, I would prefer the old logo on the helmet. Of course I would prefer that, you know, when they come out in these uniforms on Sunday night football November 2nd with Collinsworth and Toriko on the call, I'd love to hear Toriko say, Seattle and D.C. to face the Redskins. But we're not going to hear that. We're going to hear the
Starting point is 00:07:26 commanders, but they're going to run out in those old uniforms. And who knows on the logo? Maybe, just maybe that logo will come back, you know, next year as a part of something, maybe even the helmet or the uniform in some way. I would not bet against that happening. As I said yesterday, I would bet that Redskins is done. But yeah, seeing these things, it just, I just wish they could wear them in all 17 games this year. Look, I think for this project, you know, I don't think that they made the right decision on keeping commanders,
Starting point is 00:08:09 but I also talked, you know, extensively about how, you know, difficult that decision was. And when I told you back in October of last year that this was going to happen with the uniforms, that they were going to go to an alt uniform in 2025 that looked like the old uniforms, when I told you that, I also told you they are still wrestling with the name thing. But what I was told is if they don't do something with the name, or even if they don't do something with the name, they are going to do something with the uniforms starting in 2025 with alts and then probably you know, turning that into something more permanent in 2026 and 2027.
Starting point is 00:08:52 But, you know, I still think they should have done something with the name. I think doing something about the name would have been better than not doing something about the name, but it was a hard thing because Redskins wasn't an option. We've talked, you know, a lot about that. Let's stick with this project, the uniforms. I think they nailed it. I think they absolutely nailed it. I didn't know exactly what they were going to look like when I went to see what they had tweeted out.
Starting point is 00:09:22 I knew it was going to resemble something that looked like the past. I will admit to you right now, something that I did not want to admit over the last many months, that in addition to having someone with knowledge about what they were going to do, tell me about it, which is what I shared with you last October in terms of what they were planning on uniforms, I was also given, not recently, but a few months after that, I was provided with just a snapshot of the pants to look at. And I saw the real redskin burgundy, along with the stripes, and I knew that they were on the right track.
Starting point is 00:10:04 I didn't know until this morning for sure what they were going to look like. Exactly. But I was hoping for this. I was confident that they were not going to bring back the old logo this year. Who knows? Again, maybe next year in some way, shape, or form. I thought it would be the W on the helmet. And I think we, in the teaser last week that they put out via X, via Twitter,
Starting point is 00:10:28 you know, we then knew for sure that the W was probably going to be a part of the helmet. But I wanted this uniform. I wanted, I didn't want the gold pants of, you know, George. Allen's 70s and then the 2010s when Bruce Allen came back. Those uniforms were great, and they are iconic team uniforms, but they weren't the championship uniforms. I was hoping for the championship white tops and burgundy pants at home, which is what they started to wear at home in 1981 in Joe Gibbs' first year. George Allen and the coaches that came before him in the 60s. They were wearing, you know, the burgundy tops at home, gold pants.
Starting point is 00:11:15 And my first teams that I remember, the George Allen's 70s teams, it was the burgundy tops, the gold pants, Jack Pardee when he took over for George Allen kept, you know, actually the uniform changed in 79, but they wore burgundy tops at home. They were dark at home. And then Gibbs in 81. you know, had Washington wearing white at home for the first time. Now, Kevin in Arlington called me and said, Sunny's first game, they wore white at home against the Eagles back in 1964. I can't, I don't remember that.
Starting point is 00:11:57 But 70s, you know, into 1980 through 1980, it was always dark at home. Gibbs wore white at home, and he wore white at home in the opener in 1981. at home against the Cowboys, and that was the first time the Cowboys ever wore their blue uniforms in Washington. So that's what I was hoping for. I knew that they were going to look something like the old uniforms, but I wasn't sure until this morning that they would get it, at least for me, because it is subjective, that they would get it so right. So, you know, first and foremost, I think they pretty much nailed it. Secondly, as I've been saying since last fall, I am pretty convinced based on what was told to me last fall, which I shared with you, and now we see that that
Starting point is 00:12:49 information was correct. So I'm going to go with the information that I was given back then, that this would just be step one. The throwbacks, you know, as alt uniforms in 2025, but on the way to becoming something more permanent, hopefully, as there are a lot of. as next year in 2026. There are rules around changing uniforms, but hopefully they'll move to these as permanent uniforms as quickly as they can. Thirdly, you know,
Starting point is 00:13:19 the thing that I thought about this morning when I saw these is something we've talked about a lot since Josh Harris and Company have taken over this team. We finally have, you know, organizational competence. We have an organization who just gets it. I mean, you know, they came in here and, yes, there have been some things like the name itself and
Starting point is 00:13:43 sticking with it and not talking about the name for a while, but the purpose of that is they needed to push that stadium thing down the road. They needed to get to the point where the federal government gave the land back to the city to do with that land what they choose to do with it. And until that happened, they just couldn't say anything about the name. And I do think they were contemplating a name change, you know, as late as, you know, October, early November of the season last year. I think that was still in play. But I think the 12 wins, the two playoff wins, changed that plan and gave them a path of least resistance on that. There have been some things here and there. But look, we've got an organization who has, first of all, hired a, you know, a general manager first,
Starting point is 00:14:34 and a general manager that was going to oversee the football operation and be intimately involved in hiring the head coach. And then they got a really good head coach with a proven staff that followed. They didn't mess up number two overall. They selected Jaden Daniels. They've been chasing down the RFK situation and they got a deal done with the city.
Starting point is 00:14:56 Hasn't been approved yet by the city council, but they knew how important that was. They fixed up the stadium that currently the team plays in and made it more tolerable. You know, there are other things that they've just gotten right. You know, they understood that that Sean Taylor Dick's sporting goods mannequin disaster needed to be replaced by something else. They, you know, I forget if we even talked about this.
Starting point is 00:15:24 They named their draft room before the draft, the Bobby Bethard draft room. Look, these things aren't as important as winning. you know, and getting that stadium and some of the branding and name stuff that we've talked about. But I just felt like when I saw this, I'm like, thank God. Thank God they didn't mess this up. Because we know had it been the most recent group of people, you know, post-2020, they would have totally botched it. Had it been Dan and the group before 2020 and they had a big project,
Starting point is 00:16:02 they probably would have botched it. As I've said for years, there just hasn't been enough, you know, institutional, historical knowledge of the team. And Josh Harris is a real, you know, fan. Mitchell Rails and his brother Stephen, legitimate diehards from the time they were kids. Mark Eind, this same thing. Other people in the ownership group. They get it. They understand.
Starting point is 00:16:32 I mean, trust me, I think if they could go back to Redskins, it would have been done. They just couldn't. And I think this is something they could do. And they understood that this is part of what we were attached to. It was all of it together, but this was certainly a part of it. And starting on February 2nd, 2022, when we saw the unveiling of what they were going to wear and then they started to wear in 2023, it was the name and, the cranberry and it just was terrible.
Starting point is 00:17:06 Like for a lot of us, I know I'm not speaking for everybody, but I'm speaking for the majority. And I just think that at least we are on our way and we're going to get to a point where at least the product on the field is going to look like the team we used to watch. And who knows, maybe the logo will come back to the helmet at some point down the road. The logo was never a source of controversy. I would guess that the W is going to be a big part of the logo moving forward, but I'm not discounting or counting out the logo, the logo, the Blackie Wetzel logo, from returning in some way, shape, or form.
Starting point is 00:17:52 Also, lastly, on the uniform front, you know, I think they nailed it. I think the organization really, really gets it. It's another indication that they really get it. I think this is the first step to something more permanent that will look like what we are looking at today in terms of the 2025 alts. But the other thing I learned today, and I tweeted it out and I mentioned it on my radio show, is that the NFL allows up to four alt jerseys over the 17 game regular season. Washington's choosing to wear these jerseys, these championship jerseys, in three of the four avails, if you will. They're going to wear the alternate black jerseys in the fourth opportunity.
Starting point is 00:18:44 Look, I like the alt-blacks personally. I know not everybody does. I actually like those much better than the other things that they were wearing, either the whites or the, you know, whatever those burgundy, you know, or crimson or whatever the tops were. I actually liked the blacks. Now, my personal preference would be that they wear this new Alt Jersey all four times in all four games. They have to wear those at home, remember, because you can only control what you wear at home and you've got to announce before the season starts what you're going to wear.
Starting point is 00:19:21 You know, the home team gets to pick what they're going to wear. And so they're going to wear those three alt jerseys at home. I would have preferred a fourth game with those jerseys, you know, at home. But what I did learn today and what I tweeted out and reported on the radio show is that they are going to wear the alternative black jerseys in a fourth game. my best guess is it will be against Chicago on Monday night in October. They were wearing that alt-black jersey when Jaden threw the Hail Mary in that game against the Bears. And I think it has to be a home game that they wear those alt-blacks. And the other choices after wearing the, you know, against Seattle, Denver, and Dallas would be a
Starting point is 00:20:16 to wear the blacks against Philly late in the season, to wear them against Detroit in November, to wear them against the Giants in the opener, the Raiders in week three, or the Bears in week six on Monday night football, October 13th. I think that the fourth Alt jersey in the upcoming season, I know, and I am reporting, yes, this is an actual report, they're going to wear black jerseys as their fourth opportunity to wear an alt jersey rather than wearing the jerseys they unveiled today. My guess is, and I don't know this for sure, but I think it's a pretty good guess is that they'll wear them against the Bears on Monday night football October 13th. So that's it on uniforms. I like them. It made me feel good, made me smile. I hope this is what they're wearing
Starting point is 00:21:11 permanently starting in 2026. I think these guys get it. I think honestly, when it comes to the name, which is still a major issue for all of us, I think they understand that too. And I think they are very sensitive to it. I think if the Redskins going back to it was a possibility with the league and its corporate sponsors, I think they would have done it. I do. Because I think the environment in 2025 is far different than it was in 2020, but they can't do that. But I think they certainly were considering a name change into last season. No, I don't want to give back last season for Washington football team. Last season was special and it locked in that they got the quarterback right, which was most important.
Starting point is 00:22:09 But if they had gone 6 and 11 or 7 and 10, it's very possible we would be talking about the Washington football team or the Washington somethings. Who knows? But we're not. We're talking about the Washington commanders, but at least we're talking about a team
Starting point is 00:22:26 that will look like the Washington Redskins used to look prior to 2023. I wanted to mention a couple of other things before we get to Warren Sharp. The NFL top 100 list, where the players vote on the top 100 players, it's getting unveiled a couple of players at a time. The first Washington player is on the list at number 86, and that player is Laramie Tunsell.
Starting point is 00:22:57 So Tunsles at 86. I would think that we have at least three, maybe four players, probably three. Daniels for sure. McClorn for sure. I think Wagner has to be on this list. And then I would have hoped that Frankie Louvo would have been considered by his peers for this list. Now, they're up to like 85 at this point, so maybe he won't be a part of it.
Starting point is 00:23:30 But yeah, tonsils on it. And we know Jaden and Terry will be on it. And I feel fairly confident, right, that Bobby Wagner will be on that list. Last year, Wagner came in at, where was he? When he was the Seattle Seahawk, he came in at 59 on the list. So after another really good season, I see him being a part of the list this year as well. One other thing before we get to Warren Sharp. The Wizards made another trade.
Starting point is 00:24:08 And this was trading a guy that they had already traded for in the last few weeks. Kelly O'Linnick, we hardly knew you, traded to the San Antonio Spurs for Malachi Brannum, Blake Wesley, and a 2026 second round pick. If you don't know, and I'm guessing you don't, Malachi Branham was a first round pick in 2022. He went number 20 overall out of Ohio State. He has played three years in San Antonio. As a rookie, he actually averaged 10.2 points per game, getting 23 and a half minutes per game.
Starting point is 00:24:52 Last year didn't play as much average just five points a game. And Blake Wesley also a 2020. two first round pick out of Notre Dame, selected at number 25 overall, three years in San Antonio. He has not gotten a lot of run last year, just 11 minutes per game, average 3.7 points per game. But the Wizards now have 11 first round picks on their roster since 2022. 2 in 2020, 2 in 2020, 2 in 2023, 6 from 2024, right? 5 from 2024 and 2 from 2025. 11 first round picks the Wizards now have from the last four drafts.
Starting point is 00:25:51 Will this tip the scales in their favor? Who knows? But they picked up a second rounder, too. in the deal. If you get a chance to rate and review the show and you haven't done it already, man, it would be a big, big deal for us if you could do that, especially on Apple and Spotify. Apple gives you a chance to give us up to five stars and write a quick one to two
Starting point is 00:26:14 sentence review. Spotify just gives you a chance to rate the show up to five stars. But we are selling ad opportunities for the upcoming football season. so along with our sales broker, we're making presentations, and these ratings and reviews are really big for us. We have done very well in that department, but I do know that still the majority of people who listen on a daily basis haven't rated and reviewed this show.
Starting point is 00:26:45 But for those that have much appreciated, and if you can spare a minute, and that's all it will take, and you can do it on Apple and Spotify, I'd be very much appreciative. Also following us on Apple and Spotify. Just hit the plus button or the follow button. That's a big deal for us as well. All right, let's talk some football with Warren Shart next
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Starting point is 00:30:10 I've got a copy of it. It's great. It tells you everything you need to know about all 32 NFL teams and several pages on our team. Warren joins me right now. Before we get to football talk, because I know you and I know you are very much an NFL historian, I'm wondering if you had a chance to see what Washington unveiled today, these throwback uniforms, the championship uniforms.
Starting point is 00:30:45 It's something that I think, you know, will certainly connect with a lot of the fans, Warren that have been a bit disconnected after the loss of the name and the changing of the brand, uniforms, etc. But I'm just curious, what did you think of them if you saw them? Well, they sure played like that too last year as well, but they absolutely looked glorious, in my opinion. I think that they need to, you know, turn those into a more permanent fixture, but I'm all for, you know, anything that harkens back to those glory days where RFK Stadium was shaking as the fans were going crazy and the team was winning Super Bowls. Those are the glory years as the watcher redskins as they were known.
Starting point is 00:31:25 And I hope that those uniforms looked absolutely phenomenal. I was really impressed by just the simplicity of it, but just what it brings back from a memory perspective just turns a light bulb on your brain that you hadn't thought of before when you're thinking about the current form commander. So hopefully, I guess we're wearing them in three games or four games this year. I hope that they get to wear them in more in the future. Yes, I didn't mean to interrupt. But yes, I think the plan is for the old uniforms, the uniforms that we sort of identify as redskin uniforms.
Starting point is 00:32:05 I think the plan is for them to become more permanent. Whenever league rules allow you to change the uniforms altogether. you know, hopefully it happens next year or the year after at the latest. So you wrote in your write-up of Washington about 2024. In hindsight, we should have seen this coming. What did you mean by that? So much changed. We were talking about just the history of the Washington Redskins and what they once were.
Starting point is 00:32:38 So much changed between the 2023 season and the 2024 season. When you go and you have a new owner in Josh Harris, you get rid of a coach like Ron Rivera, and you bring in a coach who really understands what his role, and his role specifically is, you let him utilize a strong GM in Adam Peters as opposed to trying to command some of the personnel decisions, especially you replace Eric the enemy with Cliff Kingsbury as offensive coordinator, and then you upgrade a quarterback moving from a guy like Sam Howell, to Jaden Daniels. You also spend $178 million in pre-agency to overhaul the roster, which was the number five,
Starting point is 00:33:20 most of any team. And yet last year's win total was still six and a half games. Like all of those things combined happening at the same exact time, we should have had more confidence to say the commanders are going to be pretty darn good in 2024. Now, maybe nobody's thinking they're going to win 12 games. Nobody's certainly thinking that they're going to go to the NFC championship in Jaden those first season there, Dan Quinn's, you know, Cliff Kingsbury's, et cetera, but you are expecting this team to be better than what they were. And, you know, I thought they would be improved,
Starting point is 00:33:52 but I certainly didn't see the leap that they ended up taking. I think we all knew that it was never going to happen as long as Dan owned the team. And so that was, you know, a massive day in the history of D.C. sports. I mean, it's, it's no exaggeration to say it's among the most important days in the history of this town sports-wise when Dan finally relinquished ownership of the team. With that said, without Jaden Daniels, they could have gone what?
Starting point is 00:34:21 What would they have gone without Jaden Daniels last year? Not 12 and 5. What would the record have been with, let's just say, average quarterbacking? Yeah, I mean, look, they went 8 and 4 in 1 score games. They went 4 and 1 in games decided by a field goal. So you're expecting that they're going to, to go maybe six and six in those ones to score games with average quarterback play as opposed
Starting point is 00:34:45 to eight and four, that knocks off a couple of wins. And then the staff that I love bringing up, you might have plans to talk about it in the future here as we're recording this, but the stat about Washington commanders fourth down efficiency that they delivered, but their efficiency on fourth down was the best that we've seen in modern NFL history and the easiest way to describe that them converting 87% of their fourth down, this is a mind-boggling comparison. They gained more EPA, that's expected points, on their fourth down offense, than every offensive play from the Kansas City Chiefs during the 2024 NFL season. They gained more EPA per play on just their fourth down plays
Starting point is 00:35:25 than every single offensive play for 23 other offenses this season. So, you know, if you don't have Jaden Daniels winning those one-score games the way that he did and executing on fourth downs the way that the commanders did, I easily could say that the Washington commanders are no better than a, you know, 8, 9, 9, and 8 type team at best. All right. That was on my list of things to talk to you about. So let's go right to it.
Starting point is 00:35:52 20 of 23, the best fourth down efficiency, the best fourth down team in NFL history. And, you know, you're right. I mean, we watched it. it was because of the quarterback more than anything else. So what should we expect in 2025 as it relates to fourth down numbers? That's the difficult part because you're expecting regression. It's logical. You can't continue to set all-time records.
Starting point is 00:36:22 And the craziest part about it to me is you guys are in the same division as the team that invented, at least in the NFL, the tush push. And the tush push is the hack for short-yardish conversions. And yet, it's built off of the basic fact that you are going to be more efficient when you just quarterback sneak it. And then now they develop a way to quarterback sneak where the quarterback is protected a little bit more, and it's a little bit more bankable to get these plays to convert. But the fact of the matter is you guys had your conversion rate without running a single push-push, let alone a quarterback sneak. You guys did not do any – there were no sneaks.
Starting point is 00:36:59 I went back and looked at every single play and obviously checked the data as well, where it's all charted. Zero sneaks on those fourth downs. To convert at an 87% clip on fourth downs without a single quarterback sneak is mind-blowing to me. And I just don't see that being repeatable, even if Jaden Daniels, the thing that's like the X factor to me about him is that was as a rookie. They're going to get better this year. They're going to get more in tune with Cliff Kingsbury and Jaden Daniels actually should be able to play a little bit better than he did his rookie season. the fact that he uses this virtual reality with cognolized and allows him to have better predictiveness in terms of what to expect from defenses, what he can anticipate.
Starting point is 00:37:44 He goes through these plays over and over in his mind. Not all the teams and the quarterbacks are using that around the NFL. And so it does give the commanders and Jay and Danes a little bit of an extra edge. So in those steps, I think that they are going to regress, but they're still going to have a higher floor than some other teams just because I think the creativity offensively that they bring to the table is going to be there. The thing that I think gets confused by maybe some commanders fans or maybe just fans outside the NFL when they looked in and saw all those highlights of the commanders converting on fourth down, keeping a drive alive and scoring a game-winning
Starting point is 00:38:18 touchdown, etc. is the fact that everybody assumed like that Dan Quinn was just this massive gambler. But the fact is the commanders weren't going for it on fourth down at ridiculously high rates or even higher rates that had been in the prior several years. They were going forward on just a standard rate, but they were just really excellent at converting them. And so if they're not going to go for fourth downs at a ridiculously high rate, and their fourth down conversion rate falls back a little bit more to Earth, I think what you guys are going to have to emphasize a little bit more
Starting point is 00:38:49 is being more efficient on early downs to try to stay out of some of those foursounds, because I just don't see any way that you could sustain that in 2025. Well, I'm glad you didn't give the end. answer that a lot of people who clearly never took a statistics or probability of math class where you say, well, it'll regress to the league mean. No, when you said they have a higher floor, it's a completely different situation with Jaden Daniels at quarterback. And 20 out of 23 seems unlikely, of course. But there's no discussion about some sort of league mean on fourth down when you have Jaden Daniels compared to almost anybody else.
Starting point is 00:39:30 You know, I wanted to ask you real quickly, and it wasn't in my plan. I've said something about the tush push for the last year or so, and I'm curious as to what you think. I think they're losing a lot of yardage and a lot of big play opportunities, especially with Saquan Barkley in the backfield, by going tush push in these third and shorts and fourth in shorts, what do you think? Well, they certainly have a cap on the total yards that they could gain on a play like that. We saw Jaden Danos at times run a quarterback option or something like that and turn a, instead of just gaining one or two yards, he's gaining 29 yards on a play.
Starting point is 00:40:10 Yeah, exactly. Exactly. So there is a higher upside for a team like the commanders that has a mobile quarterback that doesn't just try to use the push push. The other thing that I don't say bothers me, but it does get frustrating is it's just so predictable. Like they trot on all the personnel. They slow the offense down. And so the defense has a little bit more time to get prepared for it. It kind of, it does limit some of the upside.
Starting point is 00:40:34 But for them, it's all about just expected points added. Sure. If they convert that play, they don't care if it's five yards or two yards, as long as they're getting a first down, boom, there go those expected points. So I don't disagree with the thought process. They want that really high floor as opposed to the maximum feeling on those types of place. But, you know, the Philadelphia Eagles, they ran into problems last year. They had more third down attempts than I want to say it was the number two or three, most third down attempts
Starting point is 00:41:05 of any team in the NFL. Now, naturally, they were having more third downs because they were up in games and they were playing slower and inefficiently on early downs in the fourth quarter, and they were just trying to convert on third downs. But some of the Philadelphia Eagles mentality is that we're so good in these push pushes, it's okay if we get to these third and short, fourth and short situations we will go for it. And it's not allowing them to be as explosive as they need to be on the early down to try to bypass those third downs entirely. So their offense is going to be lacking. And I'm very concerned with how it looks without their old offense coordinator, Kellynne Moore, this upcoming season. No, I think that's really so interesting because in talking about
Starting point is 00:41:52 the tush push and whether or not it would, you know, end up being banned, which it wasn't. One of my arguments wasn't that the game slowed down on fourth down. It slowed down in many ways pace-wise on third down because they were setting up the fourth down, you know, tush-push with a third and two tush-push. And I think, you know, the maintaining of possession, obviously, you know, is crucial to things like EPA, et cetera. I just wonder, whether or not the lost yardage with their situation. Maybe it's not for every team, but given that it's Saquan,
Starting point is 00:42:29 Barclay, not to mention A.J. Brown and Devante Smith and all of the weapons, including the quarterback, that they're giving up something and perhaps something that is greater by going tush push as often as they do. So on my list also, with respect to last year versus this upcoming year, is something you already referenced, which is four and one in games decided by three points or less, eight and four last year in one score games. Jaden literally strapped the team to his back.
Starting point is 00:43:02 You know, in so many of those situations and led them to a victory. Hell, they would have had another one potentially against Dallas late in the year if they hadn't missed the extra point when he threw an 85-yard touchdown pass to Terry McLorn, which may have been as much of a miracle play as the Hail Mary, was against the Bears. But what do you say about their ability to continue to be a team that excels in close games in 2025? Well, I think Jaden Daniels was really strong in some of these key high pressure situations. And that comes from at such a young age is remarkable, but that does come from all
Starting point is 00:43:48 the mental reps and the training that he's doing to set him up for these situations. And then, you know, when the play caller sees the confidence of his quarterback and his ability to execute, that gives the play caller a little bit more ability to say, hey, we could do a little bit more here. We could try to be a little bit more aggressive in these moments. The thing about the commanders that's going to be important for them to really try to stick to in 2025 that they were good at, but I don't know how much of it just came sort of naturally is the ways they were winning some of these onescores games, everybody remembers,
Starting point is 00:44:22 like the remarkable comebacks, which they were known to the Hail Mary against the Chicago Bears, et cetera. But the Washington commanders were leading at the end of the first quarter by 42 points across all of their 17 games in the regular season. That was the fourth highest margin of lead after the first quarter in the NFL. They were up by 92 combined points at halftime, which was the fourth largest margin of lead. by any team at halftime of their games. And as a result of jumping out to these leads,
Starting point is 00:44:54 you are then able to play a little bit more directly in the second half. You're able to keep the defense guessing because you could run, you could pass. And so you're in a moment, you're playing from a position of strength in the second half to ensure that you are going to have a better odds to win the games and probably as a result of those one score games. I would venture to say, though, I don't have the date at my fingertips that, and the games that they were coming from behind and playing from behind, that's not amounting to the vast majority of the games that they won by one score.
Starting point is 00:45:26 The games that they won by one score is where their opponents were down by 10 points or 13 points and scored a touchdown or made a field goal late to pull it to Whithamone score, but the commanders actually were doing okay there in the fourth quarter. So they have to emphasize not just, yeah, we have to execute in this crunch moments at the end of the games, which obviously Jaden Daniels did really well. I want to say he had the number two best EPA per pass attempt in the fourth quarter of games, which, again, is remarkable. But they need to stay aggressive early in games to try to build those leads,
Starting point is 00:45:59 to try to make it a little bit easier on their team in the second half, in the fourth quarter of games, so that Jaden Daniels, you know, it's just like Andy Reid does with Patrick Mahomes. A lot of people misunderstand the way that Patrick Mahomes is working, into this offense, and it's easy to say, oh, this offense is progressing, and Patrick Mahombs is throwing the ball as far down the field and whatever. They're winning the games, right? Obviously they won the Super Bowl last year, but they're continuously stacking win. The goal of the play caller is to make life as easy as possible on the quarterback. He could put
Starting point is 00:46:30 a much larger amount of stuff on Patrick Mahomes' plate. He could ask Patrick Mahom to throw the ball further down the field. He could ask Patrick Mahom's to run the ball more. He could ask Patrick Mahom's to do a lot more with his arm. Instead, he tries to make it easier. throw the ball underneath, higher completion passes, don't get hit. Let's get the ball out of your hands quicker. He's doing that to keep Patrick Mahomes healthy and on the field, and as long as they're winning games, that's at the end of date all that matters. So we don't necessarily want Jaden Daniels to have to go out there
Starting point is 00:46:58 and be in all these fourth-quarter situations where he's needing to win these close games at the buzzer. What we would rather have him do is play efficiently early in games, like they were doing for a large extent of this season last year, having that success early on in the game so that it's, easier for him and it's easier for Cliff Kingsbury to call plays for him in the fourth quarter. Yeah, and a lot of that will likely rest on whether or not they're improved defensively. I'll get to that in a moment, but I want to get into Jaden in a little bit more detail with you, and we will do that right after these words from a few of our sponsors.
Starting point is 00:47:37 This segment brought to you by MyBooky. If you want to bet on sports, go to MyBooky.ag. use my promo code Kevin D.C. They'll give you a cash bonus on your initial deposit. Nine and a half is the over-under number on wins for Washington in 2025. We will ask Warren Sharp if he would go high or low, over or under on the nine and a half coming up here in a moment. But my bookie.orgie.ag for everything you need when it comes to betting sports, They've got an online casino as well with every table game you can think of.
Starting point is 00:48:16 MyBooky.ag or MyBooky.com promo code, Kevin, D.C. We continue with Warren Sharp. Warren's annual Sharp Football Preview Book for 2025 is out. It's available anywhere you get a book, but you can just go to at Sharp Football on X and find out all you need to know about the book and get. a link to purchasing the book. I want to focus on Jaden Daniels right now for a moment, and I want where you think he ranks among all the quarterbacks in the NFL. Where do you have them? Well, he's clearly at the upper echelon of all the younger quarterbacks. We ranked,
Starting point is 00:49:00 in our book, we ranked all the quarterback rooms across the NFL. And you might be surprised, but we have the Janie Daniels seven in terms of this quarterback room and where they rank within the NFL. In terms of production, on-field production and scoring, yesterday on my Twitter account tweeted out a lot of people think that this is just how good of a quarterback are. Really, it's more so what you're going to be producing from a fantasy point and yardage perspective from a fantasy perspective. But we have them in the top tier of the NFL along with Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. So he's right there as the top tier quarterbacks from a production standpoint this season, but from an overall football acumen standpoint, we have them seventh. And I think
Starting point is 00:49:46 that that's a fair ranking for Jaden Daniels. I think the commanders, you know, it's a great time to be a commander's fan, obviously with this new leadership, trying to go back to bring some of the memories from the prior regime into play. And also, you now have that franchise quarterback, which is more important than anything, which is something that, like a team like the Pittsburgh Steelers, just absolutely cannot grasp or understand why that's the most important thing. They're sitting here trying to produce winning records and make it to the playoffs and they'll lose in the wild card round. And Aaron Rogers is going to change that probably in 2025.
Starting point is 00:50:22 You guys have the right direction. You now have several more years on a cost-controlled rookie deal with Jayden Daniels. And it's more than ever now with the way that the Souther cap keeps rising. And that's not going to change easier to pay these quarterbacks. still build a roster around them. So when the time comes in several years, you will be able to do that. The key is simply finding this quarterback. And in your case as well, the key is keeping that quarterback healthy so that he can be productive. And that's what you tried to do this year a little bit more with the emphasis on securing some better protection up front. But no doubt about
Starting point is 00:50:57 I think Jaden Daniels, one of the brightest young stars that we have in this league. And it's fun that he's in D.C. Warren, do you know after, you know, Mahomes, Jackson, Allen Burrow, the other two that are in front of Jaden? Yes, so you've got Mahomes, you've got Allen, you've got Jackson, you've got Burrow. It's Jalen Hertz, and the overall metrics, I'm actually a little surprised now that I'm looking at the rankings here. They rank Justin Herbert ahead of your quarterback. So that's not necessarily where I would put Justin Herbert, in my opinion. I think the ceiling much higher on Jaden Daniels, especially with what we've seen in his rookie season.
Starting point is 00:51:39 Maybe it's that we need to see another year of him doing it type thing. And so there's a little bit of a hierarchy there. And immediately after Jaden Daniels was Matthew Stafford, and then it goes down the list there. So I don't disagree that he could be higher on this ranking. And theoretically, if I had to argue Justin, sorry, Jalen Hurst. brings such a different element to the game. But I think what we've seen as a pastor from Jaden Daniels, I think it's arguable that you could put him neck and neck,
Starting point is 00:52:15 if not slightly ahead of Jalen Hertz. There are some issues in, you know, Jalen Hertz just struggled massively under pressure, for example, last season. And, you know, something made no sense with the Philadelphia's passing attack last year. They had the sixth best offensive line in terms of pass block. win rate in terms of protecting their quarterback, yet they allowed the number one highest pressure rate. And the only reason that something like that could possibly happen is if the quarterback is taking too long to throw the football. And Jalen Hertz was taking 3.1 seconds per attempt,
Starting point is 00:52:46 which was the highest of any quarterback in the NFL. Thus, he just allowed too much pressure. And when he allowed that pressure on those dropbacks, he was terrible throwing. One of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL throwing against pressure last year. This is where, I think, Jaden Daniels with that quick processing time of his, getting the ball out quicker, and having more success when he is under duress, would give him the edge over a quarterback like Jalen Hurts. No doubt. You know, it's interesting about that, you know, what you said about Hertz is that he didn't necessarily deal with physical pressure well, but the big game pressure he's always dealt with well. You know, he's always performed at his best with sort of the mental pressure
Starting point is 00:53:29 associated with an important game. One of the things I do every year with your stuff is I look at the net rest advantage and disadvantage numbers, and you put those out a while ago. They're in your book also, and I love how you do schedule strength, not by last year's records, but by, you know, Vegas's over unders on the upcoming season. Last year, you know, this year's barely year to year. It's mostly, you know, week to week in terms of how things change. Schedule strength, they're in kind of the middle of the pack.
Starting point is 00:54:02 I talked about this a few weeks ago on the show when you first put it out. Tell everybody about Washington's net rest disadvantage and how it might impact them in the upcoming season. It's always a challenge because this is what the NFL gives you. They're the one to give you the rest advantage or rest disadvantage because they lay out the schedule. They don't pick who you play. They pick when you're going to play them and how much rest of that. that opponent might have heading into the game as prepared to what you have. And you have the number three worst net rest edge of any team in the NFL this upcoming season.
Starting point is 00:54:38 What does that mean? Well, it means you're going to play five teams that have over a week to prepare for you, which is the second highest total of any team in the league. You're going to play four games where you're on less rest than your opponent is, which is the third highest total of any team in the league this year. you're facing an NFL high three teams off of a buy week six versus the bears week nine versus the ceox week 15 versus the giants all of those teams are on a buy prior to when you're going to be playing them obviously not to mention the fact that you do have to travel this doesn't include the travel
Starting point is 00:55:13 the for your international game etc so there are some things that your guys are going to have to overcome this year that that have not gone well for many teams it statistics Although the league and you talk to and listen to what some of their scheduling gurus have to say about laying out the schedule, and they try to say that rest doesn't matter. But for people that bet on other sports like NBA, when you get multiple road trips, teams on road trips, you come back home or are playing on shorter versus longer rest, that's been like an age-old way to handicap certain spots, situational spots. The same is true in the NFL for sure. and the same is true for a lot of other sports out there. It is a factor. You guys are going to just simply have to overcome it.
Starting point is 00:56:00 Some teams and with some coaching are better at overcoming it than others. You guys are going to have to overcome it this year. The one thing I'll say about the buy weeks is buy weeks have not been as fruitful for the teams that are on the buy as they had been in years past when some coaches would just pay, hey, guys, take a couple days off and we're going to get back in here to practice. Now there's mandatory number of days that teams have to be. take off and many teams off of the buy come in a little bit more rusty than they left the buy. And so that could play into your favor a little bit in week six versus the Bears,
Starting point is 00:56:33 week nine versus the Seahawks, Week 15 versus the Giant. Interesting. That's an interesting part of it, that the buy week where you're, yeah, where you're at a disadvantage but playing against teams coming off buys, which is a longer net rest disadvantage or more significant, that because teams may come in rusty, it may not mean what it used to mean. Yeah. All right. I'll tell you this real quick thing, that I would rather play a team off of a buy, which is like seven days of rest, then I would play a team off of three or four days of rest.
Starting point is 00:57:10 The data has shown that teams with three or four days of rest perform better than teams with seven days of rest. And this season, though you guys do play three teams that are off of a buy, that meaning you have six or more days of rest disadvantage. When you look down at the three to four day rest spot, you don't play any opponent that is off of three or four days of rest, but you play two games where you have three or four days of rest edge over your opponent. That's week three versus the Raiders,
Starting point is 00:57:38 which is a really interesting game, by the way, if you look at what the Raiders are dealing with prior to coming out for that week three game, at a massive disadvantage in week three, which very rarely will a team be playing four days, rest disadvantages. they are going to play Monday night football game. I believe it's at home in week two, and then they have to travel to play you guys who are off of a Thursday game. So you have three days extra rest.
Starting point is 00:58:00 They have a short week. They're playing at 1 o'clock on the East Coast. Really good schedule spot for you there. And then you also have three days of rest edge week 18 against the Philadelphia Eagles to close out the season. That's interesting. So you'd rather be playing a team off a buy week rather than playing a team that had played the previous Thursday.
Starting point is 00:58:20 night as an example. Yeah. That's 100%. Yeah, that's interesting. All right, I think the biggest concern we have as fans of the team is the defense. It was not very good last year. It was really, really rough against the run in particular. And yet, Jaden continued to just overcome it with, you know, late drives to win games.
Starting point is 00:58:45 Defense is variable year to year. Give me a reason why we should be a little bit more. more optimistic about this team defensively in 2025? Well, that's challenging because I would tend to err on the side of I would be a little bit more pessimistic, so I'll have to argue against my own thought process here. Okay. But, you know, because if you looked at the schedule of quarterbacks that you played last year, it was really just a joke.
Starting point is 00:59:15 You're right. You played nothing but back up a rookie quarterback. quarterback, three 12 through 18. I mean, that's a ridiculous stretch there. You also played several earlier on the season who were benched, like Daniel Jones twice, like Andy Dalton, who was ultimately benched. Got to play Deshawn Watson, who was disinterested. Yeah, you're right. Play Deshaun Watson. You go through at the end of the season, you're playing in consecutive weeks. Cooper Rush, Will Leavitt, the Saints were trotting out Jake Hainer and Spencer Rattler. You played Kenny Pickett, who was a backup. You played rookie Michael Pennix, Jr. and you played
Starting point is 00:59:49 week 18, Tray Lance, who was a backup. So with all of that said, all those bad quarterbacks, your defense still was a challenge. And one thing that we know about Dan Quinn is that his defense, when he was with the Dallas Cowboys, lived off of turnover. Getting those takeaways and the EPA that those takeaways created were massive parts of the Dallas Cowboys strength defensively. That's one of the things that I guess if I'm going to argue a little bit more optimistically about what you guys could do, you could get more take.
Starting point is 01:00:19 You could do a better job in the turnover department. You were plus one in net turnover margin, offense versus defense last season. Dan Quinn's defenses historically were much better than that. They were taking away the ball more than just 17 times, which is what your defense had last year. You need to get more interceptions, which you only had seven of them in total last year, despite playing all those horrible quarterbacks that we were just discussing. So I think that there could be room for some positive takeaway regression to come your way
Starting point is 01:00:49 with the way Dan Quinn coaches up his defense. But from a personal perspective, you're going to be playing a much more challenging schedule. When you look at page three of the team chapter, I show that the commander's schedule is going to be getting more difficult of both sides of the football. So you're going to be going up against better offenses this upcoming season to comment upon your defense to find that extra gear,
Starting point is 01:01:12 to get a little bit more out of the coaching, and then to figure out a way to get those takeaways if you're not as consistent on a down-stown basis with solid defense. You know, the other thing, too, and it was really interesting. At the end of last year, I don't know, it may have been before the Atlanta game when they faced Bejan Robinson. You know, Quinn made this comment about their run defense. He said, you know, also we have faced some really good running backs this year.
Starting point is 01:01:37 Last year, they faced Barkley three times, Derek Henry, Jemir Gibbs, Bejohn Robinson, Bucky Irving, Hubbard. I mean, it was an unbelievable, you know, list of top-tier elite running backs, and they get the same thing again this year. I mean, week two, it's Jacobs. Then they get Gentie as a rookie, Bejohn-Robinson. They get Barclay twice again. They get Gibbs.
Starting point is 01:02:04 They get A-Chane. It's part of that last year, and I didn't even think about it until he said it, Warren, but I can't remember a team facing that many elite running backs in one season. and then the best running back in the league they had to face three times, and they do that again this year. Yeah, not to imagine just the overall way that that Eagles offense is built with such a strong offensive line that you also have Jalen Hurts, who's factoring in here as a running quarterback as well.
Starting point is 01:02:34 The one good thing is I think the Dallas Cowboys run offense is a shell of itself at some point in time, and I think that, you know, the Dallas, sorry, the New York Giants went and drafted Camp Cadaboo, but that rushing offense is still lacking significantly with a weaker offensive line. So it is going to be a challenge. I overall show that you will take a slightly easier schedule of run offenses than you played last season to right. I mean, everything starts up in the trenches defensively. And if an opposing offensive coordinator gets comfortable with the fact that they can hand the ball off and get four and a half yard to carry with regularity,
Starting point is 01:03:13 they've got a great crutch to lean on throughout the course of the game. So if you can stop that run early on and get them to feel like they need to pass the ball, and this is where, I'll just say, complimentary football is your friend. If you can build some of the leads like you were building last season, if you can stay up early in games, you at halftime then will force those teams to stop running the football against you as frequently as they otherwise might. So the best thing to do when you're going up against an elite rushing attack, whether it is the Philadelphia Eagles, it's harder to build a lead on them.
Starting point is 01:03:47 But any of those other running backs that you were just talking about is to build a lead offensively yourself as quickly as you possibly can. So that's coming back on the other sideline is not going to get as many attempts. Yeah, I'm just looking at the schedule. I forgot Kenneth Walker III, Aaron Jones, a part of the mix this year. Yeah, and by the way, Tyrone Tracy was effective against them last year. I actually thought he had an unharalded kind of rookie season. But to your point, the best way, and it's been, you know, three decades since we could say this about our team,
Starting point is 01:04:20 but the best way to beat our team is to keep number five on the sideline. And you can do that by running the football when you have it and have your offense be your best defense. So pessimistic may be a little bit about the defense and it improving. So let's net it out. They're over under is nine and a half heading into next. season. Where do you think it'll fall? Yeah, I am still down on the rest of this division, which is what I think helps you the most. I do think the Philadelphia Eagles might regress slightly without the offensive coordinator there, although I think their defense is still going to be strong. I think
Starting point is 01:05:01 the Cowboys, obviously, they're going to play better with Zach Prescott. I'm shocked at how few games that they are favored in this year. I think that they're going to be an improved team. I'm a little bit higher on the Cowboys than the market, but this is still a dramatic regression. from where they were in years past based upon the wind totals. And same thing for the New York Giants. I think Russell Wilson's an improvement. I think at the end of the day, for the Washington commanders, you are looking at a wild card berth,
Starting point is 01:05:27 but I'm expecting right around just around nine wins. I think that it's going to be tough to get close to that 12 wings that you had last year. Maybe the ceiling, in my opinion, is around 11, but I think that you're going to have to keep on with those close one score games. You're playing a much more difficult schedule of opponents in general this season based upon how last season went. But look, you know as well as I do that seasons take on lives as their own once you're in the middle of that season. And the schedule that you guys play to start this year is not all that formidable. That Thursday night game week two on the road in Green Bay, the toughest travel spot that you're going to face there,
Starting point is 01:06:09 through the first four weeks. Other than that, not very difficult. Massive scheduling advantage week three against the Raiders. If you can come out of that first stretch with a three-and-one mark at worst, the momentum can just continue to snowball in the positive direction for you guys. And that Monday night game, week eight against the Kansas City Chiefs on the road in Arrowhead could be one of the most hyped Monday night football games that we're going to get this year, given the fact that I think you've got some manageable opponent
Starting point is 01:06:39 prior to that game on your schedule. So like I said, I could think that logically maybe you do make the playoffs with nine wins this year. But if you're moving early on with a bunch of wins and you're racking things up, the sky's the limit. It's just, I'll tell you, Kevin, the hardest thing for me is just trying to factor in the fourth down efficiency that you guys gained last year, knowing that that's unlikely to happen.
Starting point is 01:07:05 What does that change for this offense? How frequently our drives ending with zero points if that does regress a little bit? And we both agree it's not going to the league average. But if it drops off, you're ending more drives with zero points than you did with seven points last season in some games where you went 8 to 4 and one score games. So that's the one thing that's just the hardest for me to factor into your win total this year. Yeah, and I wonder to your point, it wasn't about the attempts. It was about the percentage of conversions. It's not like they were, you know, it led the league in attempts or even approached anything crazy in attempts.
Starting point is 01:07:44 It'll be interesting to see because I think how good or how improved their defense is will kind of dictate their aggressiveness on offense, although it shouldn't with that quarterback and that coordinator. I've got a few more questions to finish up with Warren Sharp, including where he believes Washington ranks among all NFL. We'll get to that after these words from a few of our sponsors. Where is Washington among the NFC teams? All right. And then give me the team in the NFC that you think surprises like Washington did last year. Maybe not 12 wins, maybe not the NFC championship game, but that you think ends up being a surprise postseason team. So I think Washington so much of a team's strengths and weaknesses rely upon the quarter.
Starting point is 01:08:38 quarterback play and the offensive line. I think that's more important than defense. I think that's more important than, you know, having the most elite skill position players is having that quarterback. I also love the bit of Debo Samuel with Cliff Kingsbury. I think he's going to do a lot of things that Kyle Shanahan was getting out of him last year. I don't really think that he's going to fall off completely here in D.C. Some people are really down on him and think that he's over the hill, etc. I think he's going to be just fine here in D.C. honestly. So I'm of the opinion that with the seventh best quarterback room that you guys are a top six team in the NFC. Like I think easily you're up in that upper echelon of teams in the NFC. It's a dogfight up at the top there, obviously. But you're not going to see, for example, the Minnesota Vikings win as many games as they did last season. Now they did not ultimately win the division. They were also a wild car team with that ridiculous number of wins last season.
Starting point is 01:09:33 But I definitely see that you guys are right there around. fifth best, six best team in the NFC, in my opinion right now, looking at it from the outside. I'll say this, though, the loss of Tristan Worst is a big deal for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They put them on Pupp's list earlier. That's going to be massive with the way that now Baker is going to have to deal with the loss of his left tackle and the loss of his offense coordinator, Liam Cohn, who's now down in Jacksonville. I think that's a big factor as well. You know, I've been more playing unders on some of the teams than overs in the NFC.
Starting point is 01:10:11 So I'm a little bit down on some of them. The team that I'm the highest on that is going to rebound, but it's already baked into the Vegas odds is the San Francisco 49ers. I think they get right back on track. I think that while their defense from a talent perspective is still lacking and could ultimately be their Achilles heel this year, I don't think people realize how impactful having their defense coordinator back this season is going to be. And the loss of Robert Sala to the Jets, and he got blamed for the Jets and Aaron Rogers. And that thing not worked now. He got fired after a few weeks when they came back from London.
Starting point is 01:10:47 I think the defense is going to be drastically improved because of the way that they're being coached now with Sala back at the helm for the defense coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers. So I'm high on them. I think there could be a team in the NFC South that makes it out of that division other than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I'm still on the fence. I'm leaning a little bit more towards bucking the trend. A lot of people are looking into Carolina Panthers there. I'm kind of thinking about the Atlanta Falcons a little bit more. The biggest issue for the Falcons, though, is their defense is abysmal.
Starting point is 01:11:19 So here's the one positive I could tell you about the commanders. We're not as high in their defense. But as we're talking about some of these other teams that are competing in the same conference, there's a lot of defenses with problems in the NFC that are trying also to compete that might not be the Philadelphia Eagles caliber defense at the top of the conference, but are in that range where they're going to be fighting with you guys and maybe playing you guys this season. So everybody's got their problems on that side of the ball to some extent. And I wouldn't rule out the Dallas Cowboys either or the New York Giants after you get past their front seven, which is elite. I think their secondary is vastly problematic.
Starting point is 01:11:55 So it's an interesting year to be playing in the NSD. I think there could be a lot of points scored in this conference and in the Commander's games this year. Yeah, Philly defensively, the Rams defensively, probably the top two defenses in the conference heading in? Yeah, and I'm big, and I am big. I think I don't disagree with you there, and I am big on the Rams as well,
Starting point is 01:12:19 though I haven't done anything with them on the futures market. I don't think people realize the craziness of this fact. If you look at the Rams, the Rams lost Puka Nakua week one to injury. Yep. Then week two, they lost, who's the number two receivers? Cooper Cup. You lose it. Cooper Cup.
Starting point is 01:12:38 So they lose Cooper Cup in week two last year. Both of those guys are out all the way until week eight. Yeah. So they're basically out for the entire first half of the season. Those guys also, both of them, don't play week 18 because they already have their playoff spot locked up. So from week one to six. out more or less and week 18 out.
Starting point is 01:12:59 This team still won 10 games last year. They won 10 games without playing with their number one and number two receiver for almost half the season. It's remarkable what they did last season. They get to finally play an easier schedule, a much easier schedule from a rest perspective. I also think this is all. Stafford sort of had the opposite year. If you had Stafford in fantasy, for example, you're very disappointed with his performance last year. not a great year for Matthew Stafford.
Starting point is 01:13:25 If you look at his overall metrics, not a great year, a down year for Matthew Stafford. Here's the catch, though. On early downs, he was phenomenal. On third down and inside of the red zone, they were terrible. And those are the types of things that typically do regress a little bit more if it's a really good early down offense, but suddenly they're just one year they're just horrible on third down.
Starting point is 01:13:45 Maybe it was because he was about his top two receiving threats on third down for half the season. Maybe that's more likely to improve in 2025. Same with their performance inside of the Red Zone, though between you and I, Kevin, I think that they need to change their offensive personnel deployment a little bit. I wrote about it in the Rams chapter, but Sean McFaigne continues to want to be on 11 personnel, and obviously he's much more brilliant football minds that I ever will be. But you use 11 personnel down a goal line inside the five-yard line, etc., and try to throw
Starting point is 01:14:14 the ball. That is the least efficient personnel grouping to be using in those situations, spreading the field, dropping back, and just passing the ball. You want to be passing ball for more 12 personnel, 13 personnel, 21 personnel, with extra tight ends or backs out on the field to create the illusion that you might be running the football here. And that's one of the reasons why their goal line red zone offense typically is bad. And it was very bad last season.
Starting point is 01:14:39 So that needs to improve. But if they improve in a couple of those areas, this team is definitely going over their win total this season, which, like I said, I've yet to do anything with that on the futures market, but I probably will. Yeah, there's a lot that I like about him. And I thought that when they needed him to play big, including in that playoff game that obviously got moved from L.A. to Arizona. And it ended up being almost a road game, you know, because of all the Vikings fans against a defense that was super aggressive. Stafford was outstanding in that game. And then was outstanding in the game, let's face it, the team that came closest to beating Philadelphia was it was the Rams in the snow. And that was not exactly L.A.
Starting point is 01:15:22 so-fi weather for them. And, you know, in the second half, he was incredible. This is great. I love catching up with you annually. Warren Sharp's stuff is out. The book is out. You can get it wherever you get books. Go to Sharp Football Analysis.com.
Starting point is 01:15:42 Go to his Twitter, his ex account, at Sharp Football. Warren Sharp has always been great when it comes to NFL analysis, and certainly when it comes to viewing it from a gambler's perspective, which I've always enjoyed. Thanks, Warren, as always. I want to drop one thing here to surprise all the commanders' fans, maybe you as well. The book is regularly $29.99 on the website. I'm going to give it for just $1 to all of your listeners.
Starting point is 01:16:14 If you just go to Sharp. Football or you can go to Sharp Football Analysis and just enter the code, Commanders, you'll get the book for just $1. So you're not going to find better bang for your buck in terms of just preparing for the season, whether you want to learn about the commanders a little bit in more detail, but we covered a ton here. You want to learn about their opponents, the 31 other teams that are playing this season, as well as some of their expectations. It's all in this book and no better bang for your buck. So we'll check that out if you want.
Starting point is 01:16:43 Unbelievable. All right. Sharpfootball analysis.com. Purchase the book. Use the code commanders, and you'll get it for a dollar. I've got it. I get the book every year. It's totally worth it.
Starting point is 01:16:56 Thanks, Warren. Really appreciate it. Thanks, Charlie. Warren Sharp, everybody. He's really good. He's always good as a guest. I think we have him on pretty much annually before the season begins, sometimes during the season.
Starting point is 01:17:11 But I hope you enjoyed that. All right, we are done for the day. I'm going to leave you with the video the team put out today with the unveiling of the alt uniforms. So it's about a minute in 20 seconds. If you haven't seen it, you should probably go to their Twitter account and watch it. But if you want to listen to it, it's pretty good. Here it is. Back tomorrow with Tommy.
Starting point is 01:17:39 There's something special in these stitches. Because sewn into this fabric is all that was one's good in Washington. And I want you to know that each one of you has a small piece of this trophy today. It's the grid and the glory. It's a city brought together with a spirit that made steel shake and opponents quake. It's three Lombardis, earned, not given. This isn't just a competitor. a uniform. It's a reminder of who we've always been. Because history doesn't fade. It fuels the future.
Starting point is 01:18:27 It's the same fight, same pride, same city behind. We wear the past like armor, but we fight for what's next.

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