The Kevin Sheehan Show - Commanders' 2024 Best Case/Worst Case

Episode Date: September 3, 2024

Kevin and Thom today with their Commanders' 2024 season "Best Case/Worst Case" season predictions. Kevin also had five NFL Season "Over-Under Wins" prop bets. Thom talked about his emotional tribute over the weekend to his high school's football coach during a ceremony at East Stroudsburg High. They boys talked Apple TV's "Bad Sisters", the Sherri Papini disappearance hoax, Son of Sam, the White Sox, and Thom's excitement over finding out that a former Super Bowl quarterback is following him on Instagram. Want a chance to win $500? Fill out this survey:bluewirepods.com/survey Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it, but you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheehan Show is Kevin. Tommy's here. I am here. It is that time of year, Tommy. It's football season. NFL opens up on Thursday night.

We got predictions this week. You get so excited about your predictions for the season. Yeah, I do. That's your favorite time of year. Because I know so much about what's going to. happen this year. That's why. Well, here's the thing. I have such a special knowledge that no one else has, and I love to share it with people. I, you know what? People love it when you share it, but in all honesty, taking the sarcasm out of the conversation, nobody really knows anything.

You know, it's like March Madness when you're filling out a bracket. You know, my wife has just as much of a chance as I do at winning the bracket. But it is, you know, my favorite time of year for a lot of reasons. It feels fallish out there today. It's a nice day out there. I was saying I said on the podcast yesterday, if you look at the extended forecast for next week, I mean, we have days next week in the upper, okay, it's changed now. 71 is a high on Sunday with a low of 51.

I mean, that's fallish weather. Yes, it is. With fall. A little bit too early for fall. It's weather, no. It is a little bit too early. But I'm fine with that. I hate that.

You know, I played golf a couple of times this weekend, and I played on Sunday, and it rained Sunday night and then was really humid on Sunday. I know that these are first world problems, so bear with me. But when you're playing golf on a golf course with hot humidity, the morning or the afternoon after it's rained, like steam is coming up from the fairways. And I'm telling you, by the time I got done, I was so soaked and drenched and so exhausted from golf,

which you shouldn't be exhausted from golf. But I hate our humidity. I can't stand it. When I was in Ireland for that week, that was spectacular weather. I could live in, what's your favorite weather anywhere? Oh, it's the fall. Okay, but is there a city that you could live in year-round and enjoy the weather year-round?

That's interesting. Not that I can think of off the top of my head, no. I think Southern California, San Diego in particular, has the best weather of any city in the country. because it is basically 75 and sunny every day of the year with no humidity, right? Like that's a dream. Now, if you like the change of seasons, you're obviously not going to get that in Southern California. But our city is great this time of year entering fall, is beautiful during spring, unless you suffer from allergies like I do for like two or three.

weeks when the pollen's really awful. And, you know, the winters are hit and miss. The summers are always a miss. The summers are too hot and too humid. But one of these days, Tommy, one of these days, we'll be able to do what you get to do, which is summer in Spain, summer for several weeks at the Jersey Shore, you know, usually mix in a couple of other international trips. as part of it and get out of this area during the summer.

Because you usually, you're usually gone more than you're here during the summer. I'm a traveling man. What can I say? You are a traveling man. The show's presenting sponsor, as always, is Windonation. Call them at 86690 Nation or head towindonation.com. Mention my name and you'll get a free in-home, no-obligation estimate. Quick favor to ask of everybody. Blue Wire is our advertising partner.

They sell a lot of the advertising for us that you hear on the podcast. They are giving away a chance to win a $500 gift card if you complete a short survey about your podcast listening habits. Go to bluewirepods.com slash survey. Complete the Blue Wire audience survey about you and your podcast. listening habits for a chance to win a $500 gift card. Again, that's bluewirepods.com slash survey. Few questions. All right, make sure you read the full terms and the disclaimer.

Plus, complete the survey. If you're one to fill out surveys, I don't want to pressure you into it. But it does allow us to learn a little bit more about the types of advertisers that we should be having on the show, not that we haven't learned a lot along the way. but here's a chance to win an extra 500 bucks. Bluewirepods.com slash survey. This, Tommy, from I'm Susip via Apple Podcast reviews. Kev, Tom, and Quinn, as in Dan Quinn, are the best.

That's the title of the review. This person gave us five stars, thank you. Kevin is great always. Thank you. And look it, Tommy is the best. They can't miss, but boys, I got to tell you, I'm loving Dan Quinn. From Negative Ghost Rider, that was the Top Gun reference, to double secret probation. I'm liking everything this guy says.

By the way, Kev's right. Ten wins easy. Eleven and a division title are within our sights. As always, the sports talk is great. But so is the TV and the movie chatter. Kev, watch the wire. But Tommy stay strong. You don't need to watch a show about dragons.

No, he doesn't have to watch a show about dragons because he hates fantasy, but stranger things. And the world of the upside down is, fine apparently. Seriously, if when I see either one of these dudes around town, I'm buying lunch, no hesitation. Well, thank you. That was a very nice review. We would love the lunch to be at Shelley's actually because the food's great at Shelly's, but more on that coming up in a bit. By the way, what's the guerrilla movie that you saw, King Kong? You saw King Kong this summer? Isn't that the movie that you absolutely loved?

Oh, no, that was Godzilla. I'm sorry. Godzilla minus 1. Yeah, you saw Godzilla. Or Godzilla minus zero. That was fabulous. It's unbelievably good. Unbelievably good with a fictional monster.

But God forbid, you watch a show with dragons because you don't watch anything with fantasy. Every week, you turn in to watch a show about dragons. And here's the other thing. What? Okay, this does not count towards the Godzilla movie I saw because it was really good, and it did win one Academy Award for something. Okay. Most of the time when I watch these Godzilla movies, I know they're not good.

I still enjoy them, but I recognize that they're kind of foolish and ridiculous, okay, except for this one. That's a difference. I mean, you're trying to tell me that the show about Dragons is good. It's not a show about dragons. That's what I've been trying to sell you. I've been trying to tell you it it's a show that has dragons in it, but it's not a show about dragons. That's the point.

You know, I can't imagine a show where the dragons are second act, second billing. Well, you know, what kind of show would that be where the dragons are like an afterthought? Well, considering that, considering you'd have a problem with dragons as the primary part, of the show, then the answer is a good show because the dragons aren't really a big part of the show. So there, just like, you know, the supernatural forces of the upside down are actually a bigger part of the show you loved, stranger things. But that show was also a show more based on character. By the way, I have to tell you that I've watched two things since we last spoke. And you'd think with all the college football going on, where did you find?

find the time. I don't know. I didn't sleep much the last several days. You know, that's not good because sleep is important. Sleep is very important. Sleeps important. Very important. And putting's important. So I walked in on my wife and my son's girlfriend, Riley, watching this show Bad Sisters on Apple TV. Have you heard of it? No, I have not. I got sucked into it and I did one of those binge things for like,

I think this was last week, Wednesday night maybe. I forget what night it was. It's kind of a black comedy about these Irish sisters. It's based in Ireland. And I think one of the reasons I was into it is because I just got back from Ireland. But there are these sisters. and one of the sisters is married to this horrific villain of a character. God damn, what is the guy's name in real life?

You've seen him in things before. I'm forgetting what he was in. He's been in some good things before. And he plays just a phenomenal villain who is just an awful husband to the one sister and is terrible to all of the sisters. And they're constantly plotting to take them out, to kill them. And I'm not going to give away anything more, but it's funny, but it's also very dramatic. And I thought it was really good.

And the women that played these five sisters were excellent. To be honest with you, I didn't really recognize any of them. My wife said one of them is a comedian and a somewhat well-known comedian. Her name is Sharon Horgan. I had never heard of her. I had never heard of her either. I'm trying to look for the guy. Look, I just look through the cast names.

I don't recognize it. I know. It's not a cast that you're going to recognize, but you'll recognize him. He plays a character. The character's name is J-P, John Paul. Play Spang. What's his name? Where did you find it?

C-L-A-E-S. Bang. That's him. That's him. So what's he been in that we've seen? Because he's been in something before that we've seen. He was in the North Man. I've never seen.

I'm looking through his television and his filmography. Huh. Nothing jumps out at me. Yeah. But I recognized him, and he was excellent. So I watched that. And then last night, when the game, which I did watch, got a little bit out of hand. And, God, I mean, Florida State was embarrassed last night on national TV.

I watched the, it was three parts documentary on the Sherry Papani kidnapping hoax. This is something that my wife remembers. She was very surprised I didn't remember this story. I didn't really remember this story, but apparently it was a big story in 2016. She faked her disappearance and, you know, it takes you through, not only did she, fake her disappearance, but when she reappeared, you know, three weeks after her disappearance, she was basically had the shit kicked out of her, except as it turns out, she basically did it to herself. She went and visited her first fiancé. She was with him down, you know, hundreds of

miles south and they didn't really figure it out for years. They did not figure this whole case out. Do you know what I'm talking about or not? Does that even ring a bell? No. No idea. Anyway, it was pretty gripping the whole thing. And she was a whack job. It was like a gone girl situation. You saw that movie, right? Oh yeah. Yeah, it was basically that. You know, where she was, you know, basically living it out in real life. So anyway, those are two things I've watched recently. How have you been doing? What have you been watching?

Anything? Well, I've been going back and watching some films that I recorded that I haven't been able to see that I've seen before. But I hadn't seen in a while. So I just wanted to see them again. One was called The Summer of Sam. Oh, yeah. Right. It was a Spike Lee movie made in 1997, about the summer 77.

About the son of Sam. Yeah. Yeah. I've seen that. Yeah. That's good. I hadn't watched that. It was okay.

Yeah. It was interesting. It was compelling and worth watching. And I watched that the other night. I watched Boogie Nights. I hadn't seen that in a long time. That's a really good movie. That's such a good movie.

But, you know, the summer of Sam, you know what's interesting? is as you're watching that, just how bad off New York was in the 70s. Oh. Oh, it was... In summer 77, you're two years removed from Gerald, President Ford telling New York to drop dead. Yeah. When they needed to bail out for bankruptcy. New York in the 70s was Lord or the Flies.

Oh, my God. It was. Yeah. What was his name in real? life? Was it Berkowitz or? David Berkowitz? David Berkowitz. Yeah.

That terrified people in that summer in New York. I mean, it was almost like our sniper situation. Yeah, it was very similar. People were scared to go out at night. You know, the bars were shutting down. You know, it was a lot of paranoia going on. They had to blackout. They had a bad blackout that summer.

Right. You know? The Mets traded Tom Seaver that summer. That was terrible. But the Yankees and the Dodgers were playing in the World Series back-to-back years. Yes, and Reggie Jackson hit his three home runs that fall. Right. Yeah.

Was that the summer that Chris Shambliss had the walk off against the Royals, and he couldn't even make it home? That was 76. 76. 76. where they made it to the World Series and lost and four straight to the Reds. Right. Yeah.

The Reds. By the way. I mean, I've been pretty, I've been, I've been a traveling man this weekend, too, so I haven't been at time to watch them. I know. We're saving the Tom weekend at East Stralsberg, where he was asked to say words about a former teacher and a former coach for the next segment. So I can't wait to hear about that.

By the way, just speaking of baseball real quickly, I mean, this Chicago White Sox team is about to go down as the worst team in the history of modern baseball. And it's actually not even going to be close. Like they are right now, I think they are on pace. Put it this way. The Mets, you know, the 62 Mets, went 40 and 120 in a one-second. Yes. in a one, well, wait a minute, how could that be right?

It was a 162 season. But this is what the ESPN story says. Chicago's on pace to finish 36 and 126. It would be the second most defeats behind the 1899 Cleveland Spiders. Yeah. Okay. Who went 20 and 134.

But listen to this. In their last 45 games, they're four and 41. It's the worst record over a 45-game stretch, according to ESPN stats and information, since 1916. I'm curious, because I don't know the answer to this, and maybe you don't either, but were they supposed to be this bad?

I don't know if they were or not. They weren't supposed to compete for anything. Right. I just don't understand. I mean, how can you own a franchise? and be an owner like Jerry Rinesdorf has won NBA titles, who has won a World Series championship, who's been the owner there for 50 years. How can you tolerate that?

How can you live with that? Yeah, I don't know. I mean, it's an embarrassment in a city like Chicago where they take their sports very seriously. Very seriously. Did you see the crowd that I don't know if this was fake or not. This was an internet thing where. there were 17 people at a game last week against the Mets? Yeah, I did see that.

I did see some social media stuff about that. I don't know if it was a makeup game or a day game of a doubleheader or what. Sometimes there's different circumstances, but it's a terrible, they play in a terrible stadium. You know, it's ironically, they play in a stadium that opened the year before Camden Yards did. And you would have thought it was built like 30 years before. It's so different from Camden Yards and everything that came after that. And what's funny is the architects built both stadiums, same architect. Really?

The architects have built, yes, New Kamiski wanted to build the same ballpark in Baltimore. And Larry Lekino, the late Larry Lekino, who was, you know, the president of the team at the time, told him no. We're not going to have a stadium like that in Baltimore. But, yeah, they're playing a horrible stadium. They're always the second act because of the Cubs when it comes to baseball. And it really is an embarrassment. I just don't know how Jerry Reinsdorf, who's such a veteran sports owner can live with that. So the attendance in there, it wasn't the MET game.

Actually, the attendance for the game a week ago today, August 27th against Texas at home, is just listed as zero. I mean, that's what it's listed as. Zero. Yeah, they're terrible. They're playing the Orioles. Then they've got to play the Red Sox. Then they got to play Cleveland. It's like they got no chance here.

They got to finish 12 and 11 to avoid the Mets distinction of 62. I was watching some of the Orioles game yesterday. I think the Orioles won like 11. to three or something like that. Right. But the Orioles won by a wide margin, and they still left 15 runners on base. Oh, my God. They left 15 runners on base.

And they still won by more than 10 runs. So the Mets did go 40 and 120 and 62. They just didn't play two meaningless games that got rained out, and they didn't, you know, play them. So that is the worst, you know, modern era record. and the white sucks. And I was there for that. You were? At the polo grounds in New York.

When was Shea built? 64. And I was there for the opening in April 64. And the polo... I watched them build it. So tell me about the old stadiums in New York. Tell me about Abbotsfield. Tell me about the polo grounds.

Tell me about the old Yankee Stadium. Did you go to all of them when you... I went to all of them. And what were they like? Well, Abbotsfield, I don't really remember. I was four years old. Your father took you, right? Yeah, my father took me.

We lived five blocks from Ebbets Field. And one thing I do remember, it was one of these stadiums where they had two giant outfield gates that opened up onto the street. And the crowd could either go through the, you know, through the, you know, through the corridors or actually walk on the field, walk by the warning track, and exit that way. So I remember walking out of the stadium that way. That was very vivid. The memory of leaving the stadium through the outfield gates.

Right. That's where I remember about Abbott's Field. That was the last year the Dodgers were in Brooklyn. When the Mets were started in 62, the Polo Grounds, which used to be where the New York Giants played, who left the same time as the Dodgers, that's the Polo Grounds is where the Mets played. their games. It was like a horseshoe type of stadium with a real deep, deep,

deep center field. You know, that catch that they always show from Willie made in the 1954 World Series. Part of the reason that was such a great catch is how far he had to run to catch that ball down, you know? Yeah.

So I was there for when the Mets played the first two years, and I was at Old Yankee Stadium once. My dad took me to see a game there before the Mets came to town because I really wanted to see a baseball game. And we were, you know, a National League house. But he took me to see the Mets. So I was in, they renovated Yankee Stadium in 76, no, in 74.

They closed Yankee Stadium for two years. And the Yankees played at Chase Stadium in the mid-70. Wow. I didn't know that. Yes. Oh, wow. They did. But what I wanted.

Okay, go ahead. So I saw the Yankee Stadium before they read. renovated it in the mid-70s, and now they played a new Yankee Stadium. So Ebbets Field was in Brooklyn. The Yankee Stadium was in the Bronx. Where were the Polo Grounds? Polo Grounds was in the Bronx. There's an iconic picture from the sky, from an helicopter or a plane,

at nighttime, where they show both stadiums split up for games. No, and they're not far from each other. Not that far from each other. And the Bobby Thompson, you know, Giants win the pennant, Giants win the pennant walk off home run. Was that at the polo grounds or Ebbets Field? I think that was at Ebbets Field. Okay. Must have been a tough game to watch if you were a Dodger fan.

Yeah. Okay. All right. Are we caught up on things that don't have anything to do with sports? We'll come back to some things that don't have anything to do with sports. But I wanted to. I think so. I think it's time to get to the meat and potatoes.

Yeah. So we do this every year this week. I mean, we'll have our, you know, final, final, official, official skins season prediction with a footnote. We're going to make our NFC, AFC, division winners, wildcard teams, Super Bowl participants, Super Bowl winner predictions on Thursday as well. So Thursday is going to be a heavy prediction show. Today, we're going to do best case for Washington, worst case for Washington. And CBS Sports put this out earlier today, actually, in terms of best case, worst case. For Washington, they have, they called it ceiling floor.

They have Washington's ceiling nine and eight, but no playoffs. but 9 and 8 would certainly have them in contention for a wild card spot, but they have 9 and 8 missed playoffs, and then the floor 6 and 11 miss playoffs. So I did this on radio today. I want to hear yours first, and then I'll give you mine. So what is your best case for Washington? What is your worst case for Washington this year?

Well, Mr. Benefit is a doubt. Mr. Ten win, Kevin. Yeah. I wish I could share that optimism with you as my best case scenario, but I'm closer to the ESPN bigger. That's worth the CBS, yeah. So 9-8's best case. Do they make the playoffs at 9-and-8?

No, they do not. Okay. No they don't. No playoffs. No playoffs. All right. Worst case. Worst case scenario, you know, I think Josh Harris's words,

worst case scenario could come back to Haught him when he said at the press conference where he basically said, well, we're certain, I'm paraphrasing it, that we're certainly going to be better than last year. No, we better be better than last year. We better than last year. It was more of a command and a threatening one at that. Yes. Yes.

It was not a request. I think he's going to be disappointed in their worst case scenario, which I think is a repeat of 4 and 13. Do you think Jaden Daniels is going to be good in the NFL? I do, but I think it's going to be hard for him in the first season. Look, it's been hard for a lot of great quarterbacks to be good in their rookie year. I mean, I know we've come to expect rookies, you know, be able to shine, but, you know, I still think it's going to be difficult.

I still think the offensive line is a big, question mark, and he played behind a great offensive line at LSU. I think the wide, I think receiving corps is still a big question mark, and he played with some of the greatest receivers in college football at LSU. I think he's used to having the weapons, and certain things go his way, and none of that's going to happen here in Washington this year. You know, rookie quarterbacks actually don't, you know, the outlier, the aberration is C.J. Stroud. You know, it just doesn't happen very often that a quarterback, a rookie quarterback,

picked in the first round high, you know, typically onto a team that isn't very good, has a great first year. So my best case is 11 and 6. I mean, I'm predicting 10 and 7. That's been my prediction and I'll, you know, amend that if need be on Thursday show. But I see a team that if everything goes right and I think that there's a chance it could go right. Now, there are certain things you can't predict. We talk about this every year. Injuries. You can't predict if they are severely injured and lose a lot of man games due to injury, well, they're not going to be very good, especially if they are key players. If they get really lucky and they're super healthy,

well, maybe that boosts them a little bit more. But taking that variable and unpredictable out of the equation, you know I love the quarterback. You know, I think he's ready now compared to a lot of guys that have come into the league. I don't think that he is on a team that's as terrible as its record indicated last year. First of all, it's not the same team.

30 of the 53 players on the roster right now are brand new. The coaching staff is brand new. The front office minus the Marties is brand new. This is a completely different team than the one that went four and 13. And I did this yesterday, but I added the offensive players. If you look at the 53-man roster and you kind of predict like the top 12 to 13 players on each side of the ball that will either start, 11 of them will, or they'll play a lot because, you know, there will be a nickel corner, there will be a third receiver, there will be a fourth receiver, etc. 17 of the projected 25 players on opening day Sunday are all new players. Like to look at last year's team and then say, well, last year they, it's not the same team.

And it's certainly not the same environment. Last year was a lame duck. It's over. We're all getting fired environment. And they took, you know, Ron took these big swings with very little chance of connecting on a quarterback. and an offensive coordinator. But it was over. The whole thing was just doomed from the start.

This year's team is completely different. The franchise is completely different. Now, you could say, well, that's one of the reasons I don't expect a lot this year because they're all new and it's going to take time for it to gel, even if they are the right players and the right coaches. Yeah, it'll take time. I don't see a whole roster of new players and a whole whole. coaching staff as necessarily the recipe for immediate change.

And my response to that would be, you're usually right, but this also isn't like a coaching staff that doesn't have extensive experience. We've got multiple former head coaches on the staff with Kingsbury, Anthony Lynn, and, of course, Dan Quinn. We've got an offensive coordinator in Kingsbury who was very sought after. in this offseason. The staff is loaded with excellent coaches, and then the players that they brought in.

Bobby Wagner is already a Hall of Fame player, and he just had one of the most productive seasons of his career. Frankie Louvus had multiple good years in a row and is ascending as a player. The players that were left over on defense, John Allen and Duran Payne, have already proven that they can be good. players and Juan Martin was really coming on at the end of last year. Offensively, you've got

Terry McClorn, who's a good player, three-fifths of the offensive lines brand new, the quarterback's brand new, and one of the key backs and the tight ends are all, you know, brand new. So I just, I hear you, but it's not like they change their team with a first time ever head coach. First time, you know, they do have a first year quarterback, and that's a big deal. First year quarterback rookie, ups and downs, typically. Playoffs, usually not. But I just think that there could be big change. Of course, it comes down to one thing more than any other, and that is that it's not just that Jaden Daniels proves to be the right pick and proves these guys smart for taking him, but he does it sooner rather than later, and he has a solid rookie year.

Because if he doesn't have a, if he's got an up and down, but there's more good than bad, then I don't think four wins is in play. Because I think if he has a solid rookie season, but not a really good rookie season, I think like six wins is the floor. But I think if everything comes together, 11 is possible. They haven't won 11 since 1991. I understand that. And then my worst case for them this year,

because I do have confidence that Jaden will be good enough, is 7 and 10. And put it this way. I think you and I talked about this a couple of weeks ago. You can't find many examples of a team that won four games, as you're predicting the floor to be, without the quarterback playing horribly. I mean, if you win five games or less,

your quarterback play was bad. Now, you could say, well, it ended up being bad because he got injured and Marcus Mariotta played, and that's why they went four and 13. But if you believe Jaden Daniels is going to prove to be the right pick, Four wins is too low of a floor because that's an indication that the quarterback didn't prove anything to you.

He proved actually the reason to be very concerned. But 11 and 6, 7 and 10 for me. You're 9 and 8, 4 and 13. Yes. Do you have anything else to say on your best case, worst case for 2024? No. No, I don't have anything in particular to say. I'm trying to look up something here to see what Pete Manning's record was his rookie year.

It wasn't good. And he threw a ridiculous number of interceptions, and I think they were 3 and 13. That's my guess. I'll look it up with you. I think he threw 28 picks. Okay. Three and 13, 28 picks. Pretty good memory there.

26 touchdowns, too. there was a lot there during that 3 and 13 season. But when I said five wins or less means your quarterback was really bad, that's more recently. I'm not going back that far. Maybe if I went back that far, I'd find that because Peyton Manning, I remember thinking after his rookie year, he's going to be pretty good, even though they were a terrible team.

And he threw 28 interceptions. But if you look back in recent history, of quarterbacks that, of teams that won five or less games. I went back, I did this like two weeks ago. It's like three straight years. The quarterbacking was either horrendous or there was a quarterback injury to the starter. One of those two things happened. Starting quarterback was bad.

Proved not to be the right guy or the starting quarterback got injured. Do you think I'm completely out of your mind for being, for, having the best, best case I've ever had? I think you're a little delusional with 10 and 7, let alone 11 and 6. Yeah. Matt Stafford had pretty bad rookie year, too, by the way. So did Josh Allen, you know? What was Matt Stafford's rookie season?

13 touchdowns, 20 interceptions. Yeah. Did he get, he was hurt those first few years, though? How many games did he play in his rookie year? Ten. Started ten. Yeah. I mean, he had some injuries early in his career, remember?

He had back stuff. He had all kinds of shit going on. But if you're trying to find the quarterbacks that were horrible in their first year with horrible records, you've already found some. I went back three years. I went back the most recent three years. And it wasn't a rookie quarterback thing. Let me be clear on that.

It was teams that had won less than five games. How did the quarterback, you know, if you win four or five games, five games are less than this league, there's a pretty damn good chance your quarterback situation was bad. In today's, you know, NFL, you're not going to find many four-win teams where you said, yeah, but the quarterback played great. Because if the quarterback plays great,

you're going to win more than five games. Maybe it's six, maybe it's seven, maybe it's not 10 or 11, but you're not going to win four. But he might be super inconsistent. Maybe we don't see the Jaden Daniels we want to see until late in the season, and they've only got two wins at that point. I don't know. I did find this that I wanted to read. So since the merger in 1970, Tommy,

rookie quarterbacks that have had to open up as starters week one in their rookie year on the road, they are 8 and 19. So, you know, basically not a great chance to win the opener based on history. The last quarterback as a rookie to go on the road and win his opener was Sam Darnold in 2018. Caleb Williams starts week one at home against Tennessee. Bo Nix and Jaden Daniels are on the road for their openers. So there you go. Just something to keep in mind.

Although I don't really have a strong feeling one way or the other about the game on Sunday. All right, we've got more football to talk about. I have my NFL over-under prop bets for the year. Tommy's going to tell us about his very special weekend. We'll get to that and a lot more right after these words from a few of our sponsors. Hey guys, the slightest of edges make a huge difference in the games that we love to watch. In shaving, Harry's gives you the sharpest edge with their razors. Harry's edge comes courtesy of a combination of two things.

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Okay, well, the football coach at my high school at East Trousburg, he had been the football coach, an assistant coach for 14 years, the head coach for 27 years, from 19, 67 to 2018. He passed away last year, and they were naming the stadium, the football stadium. They were going to rededicate it and name it after him.

And they had a ceremony with guest speakers Friday night before the opening game. And they asked me to come be one of the speakers, one of many speakers who were there. it was because of a story I wrote once about Ed on Facebook. Ed Christian was his name. It was because of a story I wrote once about him on Facebook that he read and the family read, and they wanted me to repeat it.

It was the story about when I went to Cuba and interviewed the old man from the old man in the sea. 50 years before that, 30 years before that, I mean. Christian had given me a copy of the old man in the sea. In English class, he was my 11th grade English teacher. I was failing the class. I was about to be held back, and he threw me this life preserver, gave me a copy the old man in the sea, said, here, read this and do a report about it.

And that basically saved me in high school, was a chance to read Ernest Hemingway's book and do that. And then the unique part was 30 years later. I interviewed the old man from the old man in the sea in a small fishing village in Cuba. So that's basically the story. Right. Okay. You know, this is my first time.

The family read this story. They were touched by it. And they reached out to you. Yes. This was my first time back in the high school. Maybe in, since maybe two years after I graduated. Oh, I thought you went back for something else recently. What was the event?

Not to the high school. Oh, just to a reunion. Reunion. Yeah, okay. But not to the school itself. Okay. And it was, it had a big impact on me in a lot of different ways, a lot of different emotions. First of all, when I was given the talk, and, you know, there's like everyone's getting up there talking about what Ed Christian meant to them as a coach and stuff like that.

Football, this is a play. East Strausburg, which is about maybe, you know, just right off of Interstate 80 and the Poconos, just a few miles from New Jersey, where Friday Night Football is still a big deal. Right. Okay. High school football is a big deal. It's kind of like the community. So the football coach who had been there for so long is an iconic figure.

Sure. Especially one who won as many championships as had Christian did there. He had like a career record of 269 and 160 something. How many years did he coach? 27 at the head coach, 14 as an assistant before that. So he's very iconic figure in town. So there were probably maybe a couple of hundred people who showed up very early on Friday before the game would start for the ceremony. And, you know, they had all the guest speakers, and it was my turn.

And I told the story about interviewing the old man. And this is the first time I've noticed this. I had a chance to look at the crowd. Okay, I could see their faces. A lot of times when you get up to speak publicly, you know, it's all kind of a blur out there. There's usually lights in the way. Right. And you can't really see much.

well, this wasn't the case. So I could see the crowd and see people. And when I got to the part about, you know, here I was 30 years later, interviewing the old man from the old man in the sea, I could see people's faces like drop. You know, I mean, I really could see it for the first time. When I did the earnest heavily look-a-like contest last year, and I told that story in a very brief time. You know, I really couldn't see anything.

I couldn't see what the crowd was. Right, right, right, yeah. But my wife told me that people, like, turned to each other and said, did you hear that? You know, now, the judges didn't seem to give a shit. Yeah, I know. The crowd was impressed. The crowd was impressed with it.

Apparently, you've got to keep going back until they really give you a chance. Yeah, yeah. So I was kind of taken by the fact that these people, that these people were really impressed, but what was more crazy was after the ceremony, I had so many people come up and talk to me and just ask me questions about, because they read my resume before they entered before they introduced me. Okay.

And people came up and talked to me. How did you become a writer? You know, how did you do this? How many, you know, World Series games have you covered and all this? and this is going to sound I don't want this to come off wrong okay because I have an ego

but I don't think I'm egotistical okay okay you know here in Washington what I've done it's not necessarily a big deal you can trip over people

in this town who have done who I've had an impressive career in anything they've done right okay there's no shortage of that but up there's no shortage of that but up

he's Strasbourg, and this didn't strike me until now, this was a big deal. You know, what I did, what they told people that I did, what's a big deal, and it was kind of cool to go back to my high school, to be in the high school, and for people to be impressed with me instead of ridicule me and laughing at me, which is what they used to do. So that really hit home with me. And there was a part, like one of my... Well, don't you have a plaque or something in the high school? Yeah, I do.

They honored you before, right? Yeah, but that was... The ceremony wasn't even at that high school. Mm-hmm. Okay, when they did that. Okay. So, yeah, I'm in the high school hall fame, the meritorial hall fame. But I guess to verbally hear it, you know, seemed to have an impact.

but what's really strange was there was a guy who I knew growing up who came up to me and I guess he didn't know some of this stuff and I grabbed him and I said you know

it almost it's almost like you're talking about a whole other person I said that's not me I said you know me you know that's not me well it is you I think you know who I am and you know that's not who I am

It is you, though. People evolve, Tommy. When people say, oh, I mean, I've, you know, I knew him in high school. I knew him. You know, same guy. People aren't the same more times than not. They grow up. I know.

Especially from that age and younger. It's such a dramatic, dramatic difference. Yeah. I mean, were you the only storyteller talking about him the teacher? Yes. Yeah. There were other teachers who talked about him. But I was the outlier.

You know, I didn't get up there and say how much he meant to me as a football coach. Did you say that you learned to love Othello when you got into Shakespeare later in life? No, I didn't. But I did say I would rather stick needles in my life. eyes and have read Othello. And I still would. Yeah, well, I hope you didn't go into the fact that you actually do stick needles in your eyes every once in a while because that's really uncomfortable for everybody to hear.

Well, that's really cool. Yeah. It was, it was very cool. Yeah. It was a very cool moment for me. And it also reminded me how, you know, East Trausburg, I spent. It's about 10 years there of my childhood. I started out in Brooklyn, then we moved to the Poconos.

And that's what I consider home, East Strasbourg. And there were so many things I liked about it. And, you know, seeing this community, like people who have... What year did you move from Brooklyn to East Rousberg? 1965. I know. How old were you? I was 12.

Okay. Yeah. And you liked that because... Well, first of all, it was... It wasn't Brooklyn. It was the opposite of Brooklyn. Yes. Yeah. It was like I lived in a house. It was like we had a park outside.

Right. Compared to what I was used to. It was pretty dramatic. And I liked growing up in Brooklyn, too. Make no mistake about it. I like my time in Brooklyn. I know you did. As well, but it was certainly different. Why? I'm sure I've asked you before, but why did you move to East Rouseburg? It was your father's job?

Well, I mean, it was a year where in 19, look, this is really getting. personal here. Okay. But in 1965, uh, was the year of all years. Uh, my father got laid off from a job he had for 15 years. My sister was in a car accident where

her best friend was killed. And she had a body cast on for months. You've never told me. My grandmother who lived with us died. And I was sick with a hype hyperactive thyroid that they couldn't

diagnosed at the time. So it was a bad year. And it seemed like a good time to leave the city. You know, my dad was looking for a job and moved to the place where we used to go on vacation, the Poconos. That's why we moved. There was just a lot going on. And you know what's amazing? One of the great things about my parents, I never felt like the world was falling apart. To me, I was just a kid doing kids stuff, and I never sensed that things were bad. Well, that's incredible. That's incredible that you're, that's a major credit to your parents. Yeah, yeah. Your sister's, that's why we moved.

Your sister was how many years older? She was eight years older than me. She had been, she had graduated, she had graduated with honors from her high school. and all girls Catholic high school. She was working as a secretary at the New York Daily News and going to a night school at Brooklyn College. And the car accident kind of changed her life. I mean, she was never quite the same after that.

Was the person in the car that was killed in the accident, was your sister driving the car or not driving the car? No, it was her boyfriend. Her boyfriend, my sister and my sister's friend. So her boyfriend Wait, your sister's boyfriend was driving the car Yes, it was a Volkswagen And they were on a ski trip in Vermont

And they had a car head on At night And how old was the How old was the friend of your sisters How old was she when she passed away that age 18, 19 18 18 And was the boyfriend seriously injured?

Not that bad, no, ironically. And your sister was seriously injured? Oh, yeah, brutally. Oh, my God. Brutely injured. I mean, and she was very good friends with the girl who died. Oh, yeah. Yeah, very close friend.

That's got to be, that's got to be so hard. And then we moved. And then we moved with all that. talk about a lot of change going on, and then we moved. So East Stroudsburg, though, it's like about 10,000 people. You know, it's not the smallest town in the world, but it's small town.

And I kind of recognize, like, for some of my friends who have stayed there, and even the people I didn't know, watching this ceremony take place, that there's something special about being in a small town your whole life. It's a different kind of life. There's something special about the relationships, you have, the community work that you do, how the high school is the focal point of everything that goes on in the community.

And they have something special, too, that I didn't have. I had a different life growing up. I'm not saying I would trade it. But I recognize that the community, a small town community where the high school is everything, is pretty cool and specials, too. Yeah, there's something, I guess, to romanticize about that life, but I'm so unfamiliar with it. But I, you know, you read about it, you see it in shows, you see it in movies. We don't have that around here, you know.

I mean, I shouldn't say that because when you get up into, say, Upper Montgomery County or even Frederick, where you live now, there is more of like Damascus is a perfect example. Damascus and that little town there and the football and Friday night football for the Damascus. I think it's the Damascus Hornets. That's what they were when I was in high school. That's like the closest thing to a small little town with Friday night lights that we have. I don't know. I can't speak to PG County or Howard County or any of the counties in Virginia. In Montgomery County, that would be the closest thing. And then Frederick has some of that too.

Oh, yeah. You can just go north with Thurmond. Yeah. I mean, the schools are everything. You know, the school activity is everything. They broadcast on the radio station in Thurmond. They broadcast all the high school sports. Yeah. Baseball, you know, girls softball, basketball, football. over the radio there, just like they do in Strasbourg. East Strasbourg, they do the same thing.

And it may be kind of wonder how my life might have been different if I stayed there. I would have been part of all that, you know. And I guess I wouldn't have recognized how cool it was if I lived it every day. But I thought I recognized how the special community that they have built there. And that's why a guy like Ed Christian, this football coach, meant so much. to a town like that. Sure. Yeah.

All right, well, that's great. And it sounds like the reaction was great. And, yeah, I mean, who are the famous graduates of East Strausburg High School? Do you have any? Well, I'm sure if I looked on the Hall of Fame website, I'm sure there are. He coached two NFL players. James Mungro, who played for the Colts for four years, was a running back who was on their Super Bowl team.

And here's a name familiar to Washington fans, Kishon Jarrick. Oh, yeah. Was one of his players. Wow. Yeah, I mean. He looked like he was going to have a very promising career here in Washington until he suffered the nerve damage to his shoulder. Right.

In his rookie year. Yeah, he did. He had a very good rookie season before getting injured. All right. I don't know how I go right into my prop bets off that story. So we will do that in the next segment right after these words from a few of our sponsors. Hey, guys, I want to welcome a new sponsor. That sponsor is Navaj.

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All right, Tommy. Tell us about Shelly's. Well, I don't know about you. Maybe it's kind of like, you know, a winter kind of thing, you know, a January kind of thing. But I have a lot of family members that have birthdays in September. You know, I mean, it's like a birthday month in the Laverro's today. I might want to point out it's my wife's first. Oh, happy birthday, Liz.

Was she with you this weekend? No, she took her sister, her twin sister. Uh-huh. Okay. Uh, they, she took her twin sister on a weekend to New Hope, Pennsylvania. Oh, okay. They basically hung out together. All right.

So I was on my own this whole weekend. Okay. Uh, you know. You know, my granddaughter's birthday is a week from now. My oldest son's birthday is at the end of the month. I've got a couple of in-laws who have birthdays this month. Do you have any September birthdays that you know of? Yeah, my oldest son, September 30th.

Yeah. You know, something must happen in January. Yeah, cold night. Yeah, cold winter nights in January and February probably produce a lot of September and October babies. Well, if you have a lot of September birthdays, here's an option for you. Here's a great gift option for you. A gift card to Shelley's back room.

Shelly's back room. That's a long way to get to that. At 1331 F Street Northwest in the district is a great place to take your brother, your father, your husband for their birthday, and nothing would be better than to have that gift card for them to open up. on their birthday. Can you imagine? Open up birthday and people. Now, I mean, to say, I didn't get any of my relatives

Shelly's gift card because they wouldn't fall into the category. But there's a lot of people who would, and it would be a special thing for them. You can buy them online at shelley's backroom.com anywhere from $50 to $500 to use. And it's an easy present. You can do it all online. you know, they'll send them to you. You don't have to leave your house to buy a birthday present for them. You know, there's some people that you may have in your family that aren't worth leaving the house for.

Well, you can get them at card at Shelly's back room. So just another service that the mecca of entertainment in Washington, Shelley's backroom offers to its customers. Did you tell anybody up in East Stroudsburg, if you get down to the D.C. area, look me up and we'll go, you know, hang out and have a cigar at Shelly's. It's kind of like the Rudy. It's the Rudy's of D.C. Look, I got emotional with these people, but not that emotional.

I don't want to be hanging out if I'm down here. Was Rudy there? Was anybody from Rudy's there? How far away is Rudy's Tavern from East Stroudsburg High? Oh, a half a mile, maybe three quarters of a mile. and one of the coaches who coached with Ed Christian, long-time coach, was a longtime bartender at Rudy's as well, you know, part-time. Of course, of course.

That was not unusual in East Trousburg. The head basketball coach used to be a part-time bartender at Rudy's. It wasn't unusual here, Tommy, Jimmy Patsos was a bartender at third edition while he was Gary Williams' top assistant in the early days. And Jimmy, you were one hell of a bartender. All right. So I have put together, and I've already actually fired in on a couple of these. I'm waiting for the others just to see if the price changes a little bit.

Go to mybooky.orgie.ag or mybooky.com if you want to play any NFL preseason prop. bet. All of the week one lines are up there. Washington's a three and a half point underdog at Tampa right now at my bookie. But all of the preseason, you know, prop bets, futures bets are up there. Offensive rookie of the year. Right now, Jaden Daniels, by the way, is the second choice for offensive rookie of the year at plus 500 to Caleb Williams at plus 127. But they've got all of their prop bets for everything including win totals for that. the year. And that's where I want to get into the plays that I'm making this year. And these are going to be some plays that you guys are just going to roll your eyes, shake your head, and just

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Kevin D.C. So the Carolina Panthers, Tommy, were the worst team in the league last year. Washington was the second worst team in the league last year. And Bryce Young is the number one overall pick. Had a dreadful rookie season. There's no other way to put it. They hired Dave Canales from Tampa, the offensive coordinator in Tampa, who did a great job with Baker Mayfield last year.

By the way, he did a great job the year before. that with Gino Smith in Seattle. So Canales has done an excellent job with quarterbacks here recently. Carolina's roster doesn't suck, especially on defense. I don't think Bryce Young's story has been written at all, even after, you know, two and 15 and a really bad rookie season. They just didn't have much at all around him. and the coaching situation with the metal simonor was a real problem.

Frank Reich would have been a good guy to keep, but they fired him midway through the season. Caroline's over under number is five and a half. I'm going over five and a half, and it's minus 100 at my bookie. That's the first play. The second one, the Colts for some reason, have a fairly hefty over-under number, essentially a 500 number at 8 and a half. And I think there's a lot of discussion about Anthony Richardson. You know, he's not looked great in preseason for whatever that's worth.

But Shane Steichen, the head coach in Indy, with, you know, Gardner Minshu last year, had the Colts on the verge of winning that division. You know, they were right there with, you know, Houston entering the last week of the season. I think he's very respected, Tommy. Shane Steichen, a lot of people around the league really believe in his offensive prowess. He's the head coach, you know, was with the Eagles. Jalen Hertz wasn't the same last year without him. That number's eight and a half.

There's a lot of under-action on Indy. I'm going to go over eight-and-a-half plus 110 at my bookie. I'm going Colts over eight-and-a-half. Good roster, excellent roster. Good head coach, questionable quarterback with Anthony Richardson. Flacco is actually the backup, and we know how well he played, you know, at 38 years old last year in Cleveland, helping them get into the postseason when Deshawn Watson got hurt. So Colts over eight and a half is the second play.

Here's another bad team. The Giants, nobody thinks is any good. I think the discussion about Daniel Jones has gotten carried away. He's not great, but he's not nearly as bad as everybody thinks. not forget, we're two years removed from Brian Dable being the coach of the year, the Giants winning 10 games, winning a playoff game, and Daniel Jones having his career year. The number is six and a half. For a team that's supposed to be as bad as the Giants, I think some people think that number should be five and a half. I'm going over six and a half, and it's plus

120 at my bookie. Giants over six and a half plus 120. And then I've got two more. I've got the Jets over 10. Obviously, this is contingent on Aaron Rogers remaining healthy. You know the Jets, Tommy? Listen to this because you're a jet guy. The Jets are favored in their division now. Let me just see what the price is at my bookie.

The Jets currently plus 150 to win the AFC East. much of the off season, it was all about Buffalo. But Buffalo doesn't have the same team. They lost Steph Diggs, and people aren't exactly sure about Buffalo at this point. So the Jets are the – it's the first time they've been favored to win the division since 2000 – since 1999, excuse me, 1999. Only two teams haven't been favored to win the division that long. Those two teams, Washington and Cleveland, which tells you something about the last 25 years. If Aaron Rogers stays healthy, that team is loaded. I was listening to Belichick talk about the Jets on one of the shows that he's on,

and he said, Breece Hall is sensational and very hard to game plan for back. that Garrett Wilson's as good as any receiver out there. They just need Aaron Rogers upright. And he said if that happens with that defense lookout, I agree. I like the Jets over 10. That's plus 100. And then the last play, Arizona under 7. People like the Cardinals for some reason.

I just am not a big fan of Kyler Murray at all. I'm not a believer in Kyler Murray. I'm going under seven on the Arizona play, and that's plus 100 on the under seven. So my five over under season bets are Panthers over five and a half, Colts over eight and a half, Giants over six and a half, Jets over 10, Arizona under seven. And I'm looking to see if they updated the Arizona number because it was different. It's been moving around a little bit. at my bookie currently.

Okay, they just actually took Arizona off the board for some reason on the over under. I'm not sure why, but when I looked at it yesterday, it was seven. So I'm going Arizona under seven. Those are my over under total prop bets for this season. You said to me before this show that somebody is following you on Instagram that you want to talk about. Who's that? Well, you've heard of Craig Morton, right? Yeah, the quarterback. For the Cowboys? The old company. He went to the Super Bowl with Denver. Yes, he went to the Super Bowl with Denver. He was the guy who was going to take over for

Don Meredith, but then Roger Stalback wound up winning that job. And Craig Morton got, wound up going to Denver, and you're right, wound up taking them to the Super Bowl. So I posted, I have an Instagram. He played in more than one Super Bowl. He was the starting quarterback for the Cowboys in Super Bowl 5, I'm pretty sure, and was the alternate quarterback with Stauback in the Super Bowl that they won Super Bowl 6, I think. But go ahead. Okay.

Well, he was a well-known quarterback. Right. Well, when Sonny's birthday was a few about a week or a week and a half ago, Sonny Jurgensen, I posted something about Sunny's birthday with a picture of them on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and all of a sudden, on my Instagram account, I see L. Craig Morton, you know, likes it and writes favorite quarterback, always thought Sunny was the greatest passer ever. Oh, that's awesome. Yeah.

I mean, I always think this is cool. You know, Jack Youngblood follows me on Twitter. You've told me about that. Well, it's probably because somehow, through social media, they end up reading one of your columns. It's not more likely than not from the podcast. It's, you know, your columns that, you know, people read, and then, you know, they start to follow you because of that.

Well, Craig Morton has followed me on Instagram now. I followed him back, obviously. I got a real kick out of that. And it speaks to the greatness of Sonny Jurgents and that one of his peers thinks he was the greatest quarterback he'd ever seen. I mean, Sunny is, there's so many quarterbacks, so many Sunny contemporaries that have spoken about Sunny over the years. You know, the other week in a preseason game, Patrick Mahomes threw a behind the back pass in a preseason game. Well, Sunny through behind the back passes, there's a famous video film of him throwing a 45-yard strike behind his back, I think, to Charlie Taylor in a practice or in training camp. And I think also after the Mahomes thing, there's an old film.

of Sonny throwing a behind-the-back pass in a game when he was with the Eagles before he got traded to Washington. So, yeah. We love Sonny. Sonny was, you know, the line about Sunny from people back in that era is there wasn't a better, pure thrower of the football, pure passer, than Sonny Jurgensen. That's what he said here. He said Sonny was the great.

It is passer ever. Yeah. That's pretty high praise. High praise. All right. Anything else? I got nothing else for you, boss. You got a lot of prep to do for Thursday show.

We're going to have a lot of predictions on the show. Homework. I love it when you give me homework. Well, I mean, you do it to your students at Georgetown. So it's only right that I give it to you every once in a while. By the way, per usual, I'm sure you'll show up on Thursday. And I'm going to have to go coach Christensen on you and give you another assignment because you didn't complete the one I gave you. So I'm going to have to come up.

See, I'm going to have to come up with something to give you before the show that interests you, that piques your curiosity more than picking the AFC champion on Thursday. So I've got some homework too. All right. Okay. Thanks. I'll talk to you on Thursday. Okay, boss. See you.

I'll be back tomorrow, everybody. This is the man with the quickest release in football. Christian Adolf Sonny Jurgensen is a quarterback like none other. There has never been a man alive who can throw a football like Sonny Jurgensen. When you watched him play, you really felt like you were watching an artist as much as you were watching a quarterback. He always threw a perfect spiral. It was like a feather coming out of the sky. He never saw anybody drop one of the Sunny's passes because it would have been next to impossible.

That was true genius at work there. I think there are players in football history that truly were great, but because they never won a championship or were never maybe in the right place at the right time, kind of fall through the cracks. Among quarterbacks, I thought the Jurgensen was that guy. It was a beautiful thing on a Sunday afternoon to just go out there and watch this guy throw a football.