The Kevin Sheehan Show - Cooley & Kevin's Redskins Best Case/Worst Case

Episode Date: August 30, 2019

Cooley joins Kevin on the show today. They open with a discussion about Dwayne Haskins' performance in the preseason and when he will be ready to play. They talk roster cuts, Trent Williams and more before getting to their "best-case/worst-case" predictions for the Skins' 2019 season. Kevin finishes up the show with his first "Smell Test" of the year. <p> </p><p>Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices">podcastchoices.com/adchoices</a></p> Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You want it. You need it. It's what everyone's talking about. The Kevin Sheehan Show. Now here's Kevin. All right. I'm here. Aaron's here and Christopher Cooley joins us on the show from the top on the phone. We're going to get to a lot of things, including best case record for the Redskins in 2019 and the worst case record prediction for the Redskins in 2019. This is not our actual prediction of what they will do. It is contemplating. what the best case would be and what the worst case would be. We will get to that a little bit later on in the show, plus the first smell test of the year we will do on the show today. If you were listening to the radio show this morning,

Joe Thaisman joined us. I don't know if you were listening coolly or not, but Joe still believes after four preseason games that it is in the best interest of the Redskins and of Dwayne Haskins to sit him and hopefully sit him, for an entire season, assuming case Keenham can hold down the fort and play well. What is your opinion after four preseason games as it relates to Haskins? Joe's around a lot and talks to a lot of people, and I mean, has a good sense for a lot of

what's going on. Disagree with Joe. More in the camp of you can't teach experience and that the Wayne needs real experience in games that matter. He's not going to sit the entire season. Let's be honest with that. The only way he sits the entire season is we get to our best case scenario,

which is jumping way ahead of things. And it's a 6 and 3, 7 and 3, potential 10 and 16. That's the only way. And Case has to play really well in all regards as they get to that point. Right. Or at least like Alex

Smith did, never turn the ball over. But I don't think that it's in doing its best interest. And I think it's been easy for everybody to say that he's really far away. He is really far away. But he's doing everything on the football field that indicates that he is not really far away. And it's preseason, so it's limited, but limit some and let him play some. Is he far away from case? Like, is there a huge disparity?

Joe seemed to think that there was. I have a hard time believing that there's a huge disparity. I think that he's grown a ton in the last four or five months being in the building, learning and understanding the offense and understanding and visualizing plays. And once a quarterback can kind of visualize the play that he says, the words come out of his mouth and he can see it, then he's not far away. Now, he's still got to understand defense and he's still got to understand. where pressure is coming from, and there are some other things to that.

But if he can visualize what he's seeing, then I think he's going to be okay. He'll throw some picks. He'll take some sacks. It won't be pretty, but you won't be able to teach the experience that I'll get this season. Yeah, I completely agree with that. I'm actually really, I'm upset that Jay didn't give him a chance in this preseason to play with the ones against somebody's ones. I think that would have been beneficial. Am I wrong? I don't know if you're wrong or you're not wrong. It is what it is.

They never really had the full compliment of their ones, or they didn't know exactly what their ones were other than the offensive line. Who were our ones to this preseason besides Chase Rui, and Brandon Sheriff, and Morgan Moses, who barely played? Jason Peterson played a game. Darius guys played a game. Every receiver played. you don't know what's going on with the tight-in situation

Jordan barely played but then he not hurt so was he really getting our ones I think the experience that he had where he had it was incredibly valuable and to me other than some timing with a couple of the guys maybe your tackles and them understanding where you are some timing and stuff with receivers I got to look at this quarterback thing and I say it's how fast he processes it it doesn't matter what's necessarily going on around him that's why you look at a guy like Carson and from a tiny school.

You're like, yeah, I know that he's playing against lesser talent, but he's also got lesser talent on the field. It's how fast he's processing and seeing some things. And I thought Duane grew through the preseason. I thought he did too. I mean, again, I preface it by saying, I don't know what I'm watching like you do. And it's hard for anybody to really gauge a lot from no game planning,

not knowing if you're playing with guys that'll eventually be on the team versus guys that may not be in the league. All of that is in play. But the things that we talked about, I think, a week ago or two weeks ago, that were impressive. And remember, you and I were on the same page. Neither one of us was a huge fan of him coming out. We didn't think he was a first round, certainly not a top half of the first round drafted guy. We liked other quarterbacks more. With that said, like he, I loved the confidence.

that he seems to carry himself with. Like he looks in acts like he belongs. He carries himself with, you know, this belief that he can throw it anywhere. He can make plays. I thought he looked more mobile than he did at Ohio State with better feel in the pocket, better escapability. You know, multiple times we saw it last night on the play that got called back. Arm strength, obviously, sighs in the pocket, throwing with anticipation.

All of those things I thought were. impressive. I don't know what I was expecting or what I wasn't expecting, but I was pleasantly surprised and impressed with what I saw, but I'm more interested in what you saw. Well, I saw all the same things you saw because we were watching the same game. But all those things are intangible that you love in a quarterback, and that's why he gets drafted in the first round and why he's drafted where he is, because he's. He can make some special plays, and he can make some special throws that other people can't make. And you saw it throughout the game, on the move, making throws, a couple off-balance throws that I really like.

A throw where he's got to adjust his arm angle to kind of throw it around the defensive end that now becomes so popular. He was really good last night, and it would have been statistically way better if he didn't have some of the drops. So I thought he was really good. where you start to say he's far away is he's still got to work on his footwork. He's still got to work on his timing and rhythm in the pocket. And he's still got to understand, you know, an offense at a much higher level. And those are the things that we're not going to see in the preseason. And you're not ever really going to know or see as they get going to the season.

I doubt anyone would say it if he started that he wasn't ready or that he was still so far away. And that's on Jay to mask it, and that's on Jay to manipulate an offense that Duane can operate it. So he does have a long way to go to be an elite NFL quarterback. The Ohio State stuff, I'm really interested in with the athleticism, because you saw it at Ohio State. You did if you watched the last five or six games. You saw some of the mobility, some of the movement in the pocket. You did see that at Ohio State. What you didn't see was any form of complexity and off any style of NFL off and an ability to hit receivers down the field past 20 yards on a consistent basis. I thought he missed on a lot of those things. So those are

things that have to come to him. And to you, to me, if he'd have done it another year at Ohio State, it would have been a hands down, no-brainer. Look at how much he grew. He did grow a lot in a year at Ohio State. He did get much better the season went on. And you can see that transitioning a game, man. He's not going to get much better sitting there running the scout team.

That's just my feeling. And unless you really do think you're going to win games, I don't know there's a reason not to play him, so he gains that experience. Well, they do think they're going to. I do believe he can protect himself. That is one thing that we've seen through the preseason.

Right. That he will avoid some things and that he will be able to see some things and get the ball out of his hands quickly because he fills pressure or understands this, blitz. He might not always slide his line right. He might not always take care of the blitz, but I think he has a feel for where it's coming from and how to get rid of him.

We lost. I see the thing that I... We lost you there for a second. Oh, really? That's right. Now I got you back. You just said that you think he can protect himself, which was one of the concerns as to why you wouldn't play him early is because he doesn't have the ability to protect himself.

And you said that there are may, there perhaps are some times where he's not sliding the line protection-wise in the right direction. But you feel confident that he can protect himself. But what I'm saying is that's just a big step for a quarterback to see all of the exotics, I think what coaches in the NFL call all the pressures from all the different areas and understand almost like a puzzle how you pick up some of those things. But because he does sense it, feel it, he can get the ball out of his hand.

And he can also move in the pocket so he's not going to take some of those hits. And he isn't fast. He's athletic. He can move in the pocket. And he moves well, like quarterback in the pocket. And he's going to avoid some of the stuff. It's more like Ben is what it really looks like to me. I think he looks more, I think he looks quicker than Ben.

Well, Ben's old now. Well, I know. Back to when Ben, 2014. It's hard for me to think back then. He never, he barely, he was rumbling when he ran. Like big, long, heavy steps. I think the other guy, I think has to. Skins looks a little bit more mobile.

I'll give you a little bit. The thing that neither you and I could have seen, and it's completely fair, and that only teams would have really seen or only people that really knew him would have seen, is what kind of guy he is, what kind of leader he is, how he handles himself,

his love for the game. And those are things that I think we're starting to see here. Little things like, he's having a blast out there. He's smiling. He's laughing. He's having fun. He's with his teammate. When Cam Sims dropped three balls, he took Cam Sims over and they threw about 20 passes together on the sideline. Like, that's a big pick-me-up. That's a hard spot for a receiver. So you see some of these intangibles that if you just turn on Ohio State film, watch Doyen Haskins, you would never pick up.

Right. So that's another big part of where a player raises his draft stock. It's something that you can't watch on film. I think he has a lot of that stuff that you can't watch on film inside of him. The one thing that you and I were worried about, I think you were with me on this, he wasn't playing well and things weren't going well. I didn't see that love. I didn't see him dig and believe and make plays that you go, wow, he just overcame three bad drives. It's not like you didn't do it.

It just I didn't see the body language the way I see the body language when it's going really good. but you're also talking about a really young kid and he can grow into that competitiveness. So I said something on the radio show and I think on the podcast the other day that I found out you either told me on the podcast or you've just been doing on your own podcast. We couldn't figure that out. But I predicted that we would, it was a hunch and maybe it was a hunch because I heard you have the same hunch. I don't know. That could be it. But that Jay would figure out a way to get him a series in the Philadelphia.

game, you know, some sort of special package for him to get his feet wet, you know, early in the season. And I predicted, I said, we're going to see him on the field before the end of the month of September. And it wouldn't shock me if we see him in the opener. And apparently you either told me that, and I just forgot it or it just remained in my brain somewhere, and I tried to take credit for it. But you think the same thing, right? Do you still think it? Well, first of all, how many times when we're planning a show, did we come up with the random same idea on the same day? We did a lot. When we're interviewing a guest and you have seven questions and mine are six of the seven same question.

Yeah. So, yeah, I mean, you got credit, man. You thought it up in your own world. I don't know if I did or didn't. You just didn't pick it up. You just didn't think it up first. Right. So do you still believe it that Jay's going to figure out a way to play him here early?

I don't know. When I said they should play them early, I said they should play them early. And they should give him a series and they should get him out there and just give him a couple small packages. It's high school, do it, colleges do it, it's not common in the NFL. I think that you absolutely get him a feel for playing in an NFL ballgame, creeping on a certain level. You keep his – it's not like he won't be incredibly involved, but you've been.

peak is interested all times when he has a certain amount that he does actually have to contribute. So I think there's a lot that goes into just giving him a couple series in the first game. If he does well, have success, you give him a couple more in the second game, and you see where you're at. I totally, I believe they should do that. I don't know if they will do that. It's very uncommon. It would be very far-fetched to just have that happen. but the thing is, is the one thing I believe, is that there's not a massive difference between him in case right now.

That bothers me. We could be wrong. Could be wrong. That bothers me that you say that because if there really isn't a big difference, Joe said there was, then I'd be playing him. Well, there's going to be a big difference in the way you score points with the two of them and how games play out. But I think Duane has some special skills that Case does it to make that throw where everyone goes, and the thing about it is, is how many times do you hear defensive coordinators say, man, if it weren't for those four plays, we play great all day.

I don't know if they're good enough to nickel and dime people and have Case pick people apart. I don't know if they have that talent around Case to make plays after the catch and to make enough plays in the run game that they keep that balance. I do know that Duane's going to make some throws down the field if he comes in. that surprised some people in a positive way. So I think his positive overcomes the negative almost to the same level that cases positive and negative would counteract with each other. That's just my thought. I don't know because I just haven't seen enough case in our uniform.

Right. But it seems to be that way that Duane could make up some things that he made mistakes for. You know, speaking of, you know, we didn't see a lot of anybody a quarterback in uniform. We didn't see anybody that's more likely than not going to be on the field to start the season, you know, on the field a lot in preseason. And this was a trend league-wide. I mean, it's been a trend for a while in the league. The Redskins aren't the only team.

Everybody just doesn't seem to value these opportunities to get into some sort of rhythm anymore, which is fine, whatever. I mean, they know better than I. But when we get to opening day, can you give me a guess as to who the wide receivers are going to be? And I'd actually like your guess as to who is going to make this final 53 cutdown at wide receiver. Because that seems to be the one area that nobody has a clue about other than I think it's a given that Paul Richardson and Trey Quinn, if they're healthy, they're going to be on the roster and play. After that, I have no idea how it plays out. well Terry's going to be on the roster and play

I don't think there's any question about that I mean after what we heard early of course but we didn't see much of him either that was a big surprise to me when he played one play in the opener a couple plays maybe in the Atlanta game where it wasn't really noticeable and none the rest of the way

but Terry's been out there and he's been I think it's just looked at I'm not trying to be dismissed here I think it's just looked at on a smaller scale, like a practice isn't heavily scrutinized and evaluated on a high school level as it is in an NFL level. They learn a lot. They see a lot in practice.

So I think they'll know, especially if they know he's capable of really contributing. The bubble guys, sometimes you want to see them make plays in games. The guys that aren't bubble guys, it just stands out. You watch practice for 20 minutes. You say, him, look at that guy. He can play. So I think they feel that way about Terry and like Terry a lot. So you said Richardson, Quinn, Terry.

I think Kelvin Harbin makes this team. I was almost sure on Cam Sims, and I don't know if those drops really hurt him or didn't hurt him. I like Kidsey and I like Stephen Sims Jr. And I like Robert Davis as well, but I think he's pretty. probably a guy that makes your practice squad again this year. I don't think that Doxon makes it. But things can happen over a period of two days

where you have a couple of coaches go to bat for him and you say, what else do we have? It's not like he's costing him a lot of money. At least we know what he can do. Sometimes coaches will get into that. So he doesn't make my team with the receivers around right now, but he might I would put it at 80-20

or 20 on 80 on on doxon on doxon well they're trying to trade him I mean that would be that would be the best thing and look you know I've been incredibly critical of the team president you know in recent years

and months but one of the things he has done since he got here is he exhausts every possibility before cutting somebody loose. He's gotten picks for people that most didn't think you could get picks for, or some didn't even want to try to get picks for. So if you can get a conditional late-round pick for Doxon, and by the way, I hope it's not a seventh for a former first-rounder.

I'd like it to be like a conditional fifth, like you get up to a fifth if he plays and plays well. He's going to try to get that done. That's what I'm assuming. if he doesn't get it done by deadline tomorrow, I think he's going to be on the roster and that they're going to try to keep him until somebody actually wants to give him a pick for him.

It just depends on if they actually believe he's going to help him in the first five games or not. Can you imagine if they keep him on the roster and he's inactive? Well, that's, I think, a very good possibility if they don't trade him by the deadline tomorrow. If he's on that roster and they haven't traded him, it's a pretty good bet he's going to be inactive, don't you think? I don't think he makes the roster.

Okay. But that's where I'm at. Well, here's the other thing as well as, when you say the roster, this is a number will be cut Saturday. The rosters, who shows up to practice on Wednesday? Right. Really, that's what the roster, when you really look at it, you got to see across the league who clears waivers,

who you evaluate it and said, hey, look, we had a fifth on this guy, and someone took him in the fourth, and they cut him, but we liked him and we believe that he would fit with us. There's one or two of those guys almost every year that make a roster that we're not on your team. Not to mention a veteran that gets cut, surprisingly, that all of a sudden, you know, is available for an area where you have a need. And so back to Doxon, there could be a lot of teams that say, here are the five guys that we hope clear waivers. and then we would trade for Doxham. And then the conditional fit.

Got it. So, you know, he could be on this roster through the weekend. He could be on this roster at Monday's practice. But does he clear the roster by Wednesday? And that's the roster. And even at that, some of the veteran players that end up making the team, the real roster is the next Wednesday. Because they don't want a lot of the veteran, veteran players,

they don't want to pay the best at minimum if they were to get hurt or something were to happen. So you won't even sign them in week one. But I don't get that whole hypothetical. On the running back front, it's Geis, it's Peterson, it's Chris Thompson. Is there another back? Does Somagie P. Ryan make the final roster?

Does Byron Marshall make it? That's another having that clear waivers discussion is an incredible discussion because you look at the league and you say like, look at just Philly for example. You have six backs, and they've kept a lot of backs so you don't know. But,

And Wendell Smallwood might be a better third down back. I don't know if you make their roster. Windows Smallwood's probably a better option right now moving forward than Somaget or Byron. I don't know if that's true or not. That'd be my opinion. Somaget, I think, it's got to be tough for Somagia to make it because you have Darius Guyson and Adrian Peterson two first and ten backs. Then you have Chris Thompson. And Chris Thompson's hurt.

And you have to account for that. he's not currently hurt, but Chris Thompson gets it. You have to account for that. So wouldn't you want to keep a third down back? And lastly, facts aren't always that hard to find in the season. It's not like going out and finding a guard where you have to bring in Jonathan Cooper and whoever the hell they brought in last year to workouts because there are no guards on the free agent wire.

There are always backs out there that come in and play for you. That's how I feel. Yeah, I mean, of course. I mean, like the Lashon Daniels is and the, you know, Rob Kelly was on the roster, the other guy that they actually played a bunch. Yeah, they've picked up so many of these backs at the end of the year, some of whom have actually been productive. I was just curious, and I don't know why I thought of this,

but remember last year there were a couple of sets where P. Rhine was in there as a fullback? I do. So, I mean, you're not going to see that formation in the preseason. But there's a single back offense. I know that. I actually suggested last year. we were doing our show, I think, and throughout the last, that they abort single back offense because they can't get to the edge

with the tight end. And I said, just put a fullback in and lead. Yeah. Yeah, but that's not the style that they've run. It's not the way they really operate. So I would be very surprised to see someone kept as a fullback. And at that, if you were going to keep a fullback, talk into the phone. We're losing you.

You've got to talk into the phone there. At that, if you keep a fullback, you'd probably keep J.P. Holtz. Got it. Which is actually another really interesting roster spot, because what's going on with Jordan Reed is unknown. I've got that on my list of things to talk to you about, but real quickly, I mean, I thought Holtz looked good. You've liked Matt Flanagan before. Let's just assume Jordan Reed will be healthy. I mean, Jay indicated that the other day that he thinks Jordan Reed will be ready for the opener.

Vernon Davis, Jeremy Sprinkle, those are three givens. Do you keep, is there another tight end? By the way, that big dude, that six foot eight dude looks pretty good to me too. I actually think they look like they've got pretty good tight ends. You would indicate that Jordan would play by all means because Philly will game plan heavily for Jordan. Okay. You don't want to tell them that Jordan's not going to play. I don't know, to be honest with you, I haven't talked to Jordan.

not once. I don't know what he's doing. I don't know if he's going to be a practice this week. I have no clue. So, you know I'm telling you that honestly. You've got to think about it when you have eight. You just do when you hate your eight's concussion.

You've got to think about it. And I think he's got to, he's got to have a couple doctors. Here's the way I look at it. And I have to do, if it were me. Did he have a concussion? Let me interrupt you. I don't even know. I don't know.

Right, because you don't have to announce preseason injuries. Well, because when you enter the concussion protocol, it doesn't mean that you had a concussion. And then the other part of this, and you and I have had this conversation in the past, you know, the whole concussion diagnosis thing is not the easiest thing. You know, I've had a concussion before. I've had a son who's had two of them playing sports. and it is really based on the patient's description of his or her symptoms more times than not that drives the diagnosis or the result. Not in the NFL. Well, they don't do a CT or an MRI scan, which wouldn't help anyway.

Well, first of all, he has a baseline. I understand that. So did my son. They did it right from the beginning. You had a baseline to compare it to. Well, then if you're concussed, you're not going to have the same balance as you had in your baseline. A lot of times it's as simple as just having the balance. My point is...

Close your eyes and stand on a piece of foam if you can't. If you did it before you were concussed for six seconds and you did it for one, we're pretty sure you can cut. My point is it's based on the patient's description of the symptoms. It's not, you know, a throat culture that says you've got strep throat. Yeah, but what I'm saying is you can't describe balance. You have to enact balance. True. Right.

So there are a lot of things in the baseline test. What if your balance is fine? then you move on to the second set of it. And if you're fine, you're fine. If you're not concussed, you're not concussed. I don't know what to tell you. I'm sure they know if he did or didn't have a concussion. You'll find out on Monday, right?

Because Monday's when you have to announce your injury report for the first time. Right. When you practice on Monday. So you'll find it on Monday. And maybe he didn't. And things are great. I would love that. What do you think about it if he did?

What do you think about it if he did have his seventh or eighth concussion? If it were me, I would play. If as soon as I got cleared, I were trying to play. I'm stubborn, and you know me, and I would. If it were my son, I would beg him not to play. What about those that would make... That's the only way I can look at it. What about those that would make the argument

that you should be protected from yourself in that situation and not be allowed to play? That there should be a certain number of concussions that automatically end your career? If it were my son, it could be the minor. this concussion of all time that maybe we don't even think is a concussion, but it's the eighth time that something's happened that you think, geez, I wouldn't care what it was if it were my son. It still, it'd still be his decision, but that's the only way I can look at it. And I don't

feel the same way for Jordan. If Jordan wants to play, he should play. If Jordan wants to think about it, he should think about it. Someone said, would you tell Jordan Reed, he shouldn't play? No, I'm not going to tell Jordan Reed. He should or shouldn't play. That's his decision. It's him and his family. Not my decision to me. So I don't think I should tell Jordan Reed think about it. I've thought a lot about that because I could do that, and I'm not going to do that. It's his decision. Yeah. It's, you know, nobody's rooting for players to get concussed or to have long-term health issues due to playing football. Just like, you know, if other lines of work were more visible, you know, you wouldn't root for mine workers or other people

who are in physical positions in jobs where they can get sick or they can get hurt, you wouldn't root for that either. But there are jobs in this country that come with risk. And in this particular job, you get compensated at an outrageous level to take that risk. I mean, I think one day there's just going to be a liability waiver you're going to have to sign. And I don't, you know, I know this is a longer, deeper discussion, and I don't really want to have it right now because I want to stick with the team. but I'm just not a believer that somehow football's in danger. Like somehow football in my lifetime or in my kid's lifetimes is going to disappear.

I just don't believe that. I'm not a believer in that either, but I am believing that they need to really consider how they're calling some of these personal fouls because it grandizes the, like, the J. Hugh Chesson hit. Do you have a problem with that J. Hugh Chesson hit? last night, balls fumbling around on the punt. He goes diving in like he's going to get the ball. He ends up hitting with his chest, not his head. I don't think it was malintent.

Now we throw a flag. And to me, it says, violent game. Violent game. You want your kids to play this game? Monta Nicholson hit early in the season. Josh Norman hit early in the season. And those are just us.

Now, the Cian Neal hit on Jordan Reed. I don't think it was malicious. Everyone put in a cheap shot. I think Jordan Reed was falling. falling down and Keanu Neal is a big hitting safety in Atlanta. I was trying to put a hit on Jordan Reed. Jordan's helmet lowered. Gianno Neal's helmet lowered because it's pad level lowered, and that's part of football.

But his helmet flew off, so yeah, we can throw that hit. Helmet threw off, I get that. It was clear helmet to helmet contact. So I get that you have to call that one. But I think they need to be careful with which they do and do not call off. Well, yeah, I mean, they have been legislating. Find them afterwards. Just quietly find them afterwards. I totally agree. They've legislated... Take their money and they'll try to change.

They're legislating the physical, the physicality out of the game, and that's not good for the product. It's not. I mean, you know, and too much of it is an overreaction. But that's me. I'm not out there taking the shots or laying the shots on anybody. I like and have always liked that aspect of football. It's been one of the things. that for me as a fan has been part of the thrill, is that I, you know me, I enjoy 13 to 10 physically violent defensive games more than, more than 47-44, much more. Like that Cowboys Saints game on a Thursday night game, last year,

was awesome to watch, 13 to 10. Didn't want the Cowboys to win, but an awesome game. I like those games, but, By the way, last night's hit was late. That's why it got flagged, I thought. The guy was on the ground and hit surrender. I don't know how you make that. I thought he had surrendered sort of on the ball,

had given himself up, but whatever. And no one was watching the game last night anyway. They don't even know what we're talking about. Yeah, they do. Here's my thought. Some 36% though. So here's my thought. I think it's 22.

Really, really, really. I initially was of the mindset. If you start to fix it on the NFL, and kids are watching this game, and they've seen it correct at that, you could start to take it out of U-Sports. You can't. Go watch U-Sports and watch the kid who hits.

You'll know because there's going to be one kid on the field that really hits. And he's going to lead with his helmet because he's going to. So if you want to fix it, Don't fix it on an NFL level. Fine, I'm fine. But fix it by really, truly exaggerating the effort between fifth and eighth grade. And then obviously all the way through high school. But these three things, I think you only fix it with youth coaches.

I'm watching Little League football. My friend had a kid who got hit Helmut to Home and sent me all these videos. They're kids. Helmut to Helmet to Helmet. It's big helmet to Helmets. helmet contact, it could hit. That's not because Monta Nicholson on the sideline. It was the same, almost same type of hit. It's not because Monta Nicholson did it. That's because it's natural part of the game. So if you want to take it out, you've got to teach them how to do it differently when they're 10.

All right, let's move on to something else, and that would be Trent Williams. So DeAngelo Hall yesterday was on the station. He was on with a podcast and basically said that he had talked to Trent Williams, DeAngelo Hall did, and Trent Williams said there's zero percent chance that he's coming back. Have you heard anything? What is your guess right now on how this whole thing gets resolved if it does get resolved anytime soon? I don't think he comes back. I think that it's tricky. I looked it up, and I'm not sure this is exactly what it is, because numbers are reported on fines and when these things happen, and they're not necessarily what the team actually can do. I'm always surprised what gets reported that isn't right. And I'm not saying they fail,

there did it inappropriately, just that they don't have all the details. It looks like it's costing him 700 grand this year in fines. I think he can afford that. I hope he can afford that. I'm sure he spent a lot of money. That's in fines. That's in fines. And he's going to pass on $12 million. I also understand that. But he is also going to receive a big contract the next year, whether he comes back, things are changed, they reconcile, he's going to get another big contract, or he gets traded and someone else sends him to a big contract. So I think he's just looking at it and saying, at some point, I am going to get that new contract. And even if it's because of the problems that he hasn't mentioned, people around him have mentioned,

in the training staff or medical staff, he's still going to get a new contract at the end of next year, or at the beginning of the next year. So he can wait. He does have enough money to wait is what I believe. And so I think it's interesting, you know. Wait a minute. I want to make sure I understand what you're saying. You're saying that the possibility exists, that he sits out the whole year.

He loses on the fines and the salary, you know, the 10 to 12 million in salary. And then the Redskins, you're saying that the Redskins potentially then next year give him a contract extension? I'm not saying that they do give him a contract extension, but I'm saying if they wanted him back and they wanted to find a way to reconcile and they want to make some of the changes that apparently he wants, then you could give him a contract extension at the end, at the beginning of the next year, or you could trade him next year and someone else could give him that contract extension. Right.

I don't see this as a, okay, don't sign, we're going to let your contract toll for as long as it tolls, and you're never going to play again. I don't think that's going to happen. I think something happens by the end of the year. But what I'm saying is if I'm trying, I'm looking at it saying, I'm passing on 700 grand, also on receiving another 12 million, which is about seven to him. But next year, I will get paid $100 million contract.

One way or another, someplace or another. You heard Bruce the other day with Sherry Burris at NBC4, you know, basically, you know, say that, you know, he still thinks that Trent will eventually play for the Redskins. We know him to be, you know, stubborn, spiteful at times, wants to win this standoff. Do you think that's in the best interest of the organization right now for the organization to stand firm and not give him a contract extension

and also simultaneously not trade him? It only hurts the organization if they know he's not coming back, if they're not able to trade him for what they could get at some point in the early part of this season before the trade deadline. I don't think this is a lot of drama in the locker room. I didn't suggest it was. So I don't think it's hurting your team right now other than your star player is not here. But he's not coming back is what he said.

So I think you could play it out until the trade deadline. If, in fact, you got to the trade deadline and he wasn't traded and he wasn't coming back, yeah, then standing firm's not going to do it. Just out of curiosity, I'm just thinking this thing through to the end of his deal. If he sat out this year and sat out next year, he doesn't get free agency at that point, does he? No, I'm not exactly sure. If he pays the fines and pays out of his contract, he would. If he retired like Andrew Lucky wouldn't. right so but i think if i think if he pays fines for two straight years yeah his contract would end

and the rights on the contract would end and he'd be 33 years old and then he pays the fines he missed out on 22 million some somewhere that may be more than that over the next 23 million over the next two years and then he'd be free to go sign with somebody else of course the redskins could always franchise him that would be funny No, it wouldn't. No, I'm being tongue-in-cheek sarcastic. It wouldn't be funny at all. But I'm just playing this thing out to where the stand-off continues multiple years.

Like he is never playing for them, and they're never going to trade him. What you're playing out is that the team always will have more leverage than the player. It's true. And he's trying to exercise every iota of leverage that he has right now. but the team always has more leverage than the player, and essentially it trickles down to, well, Donald Penn's pretty good. We like him.

And if he's not, Jaron Christian's going to get a shot, and if he's not, we're just going to draft a guy in the first round next year, and we're going to move on. That's the leverage they have. The player, they don't owe the player anything. They don't owe the player,

we love you so you play, or we owe anything to you so you're on the field, or we have to pay you. They don't own, the player needs the team. That's the nature of the NFL right now. Yeah, I mean, I don't disagree with that. I just think this organization should have been in reboot mode at the end of last year anyway. And I would have been, as I told you last year,

I would have been thinking about trading him now anyway because you could extract great value for him at 31, much more so than you can at 33 or 34, if you had signed him to a couple of years of, of extension. And I would have done the same thing with Carrigan, and I would have been trying to just, you know, compile and stockpile just as many draft choices as I could to build for the future. And when, you know, in the future, when you've got a chance to compete, he was going to be 34, 35 years old anyway, you know, maybe 33, two years from now. But now this situation just makes

it easier for me to do this because my fan base isn't going to be upset about it. If I get a first rounder, a mid-first rounder or two-toes and a five or a two, a three, and a four, you know, I win. And I think this is where Bruce, you know, once again, has sort of, I think he's got it wrong. I think he believes that he only wins if Trent comes back. And I would say, as a fan of the team, he wins if he gets somebody to give him a first and a fourth, or two-twos and a fifth or whatever. and he gets a lot of value out of Trenton. By the way, that doesn't have to be this weekend.

It could be right before the trade deadline. It could be week four. Or you just threw out a new possibility. It could be after 2019. You know, and because you're not going to use these picks until the 2020 draft anyway. So it's not like you're in a hurry to get the picks. What you want is the best possible deal. It's just a certainty that you're not going to get.

anywhere in the mid-first after the season. Because you're going to draft a tackle if you're in the mid-first. You're going to get a first-round tackle in the draft. So you lose that potential of getting a mid-round pick. I'm not following why. Because nobody's going to sign Trent Williams to a big-time contract when they have five tackles on the board in the first round. Oh, oh, the team that's trading for them.

Got it. You also lose the certainty of, say, let's say, Houston calls and says, we'll do it. We'll give you a first. They might have five injuries across the board that are detrimental to that team, and now that first becomes a 10. You're trading for the exact pick at the end of the season. Yeah, no, I got it. I got it. I don't know if you saw this report yesterday, but a Houston reporter from the Houston.

and Chronicle reported that there were five teams that had reached out and had inquired about Jedavian Clowny's availability, and one of those teams was the Redskins. I think it was the Seahawks, the dolphins, the Eagles, the Jets, and the Redskins. Now, one of the part of the report said that the Redskins were not interested in parting with Trent Williams. So, you know, that's also another indication that Bruce right now just is like, you know what, I'm not, I'm winning this thing. I'm not trading him. He wants to get traded. I'm not let him. I'm not let letting him get traded. I think it probably is more like the Houston Texans have reached out to five teams.

In this instance, I would bet you that Houston reached out to acquire Trent Williams. Okay. Would you have made the trade if it were straight up Clowny for Williams? No. Why? Because I don't know when Clowny's going to play. If Clowny's going to play, I don't know about him. He's not injured.

He's always injured. He had micro fracture on his knee. That's actually not true. He's missed three games and three years. He got injured early in his career. Last three years, he was an unbelievable player last year. But when I trade for Clowny, then what am I going to pay Clowny? Well, that would be the challenge.

Now I've got to pay Clowny a dynamite deal, and I just drafted Montess Sweat. I still believe in Ryan Carrigan. I got to give Ryan Anderson some credit. Casanova's been good. He got hurt last night. I know. I don't know. I don't want to pay Jude Davian Clowny.

No, he just doesn't fit my M-O here. Trust me, I don't, not discounting that he's an unbelievable player. He's better than anything that we have right now. We don't know about sweat. We're hopeful about sweat, but he's better than Carrigan by miles. How many miles? Well, I don't know, mile and a half. Yeah, you know how I feel about it.

So. But I don't know. I don't think Houston would do the deal, Clowny for Trent Williams straight up. think they'd require more. I guarantee they'd do the deal. They need to get that off the books. I think the bigger issue is that, number one, the money. What do you have to pay them? So I'm with you on that. And number two, I do think that the Redskins, you know, backslap a lot about things that to them are obviously big wins. And they believe they've won big in the draft in recent years along the defensive front. And, you know, this year with potentially a lights out pass.

pressure in sweat. And they don't add to areas of strength, which I think is full-hearty because they still don't have an obvious A-plus player. I think Payne and Allen look like A-player's, and I hope sweat turns out to be one. Clowny is definitely one right now at 25 years old or 26 years old. Sure. But they add to, they've added to that area over the last three years. Every year, over three years, they've drafted someone in the first round in that area. Settle. Swear. Anderson. Yep. Alan, Payne, sweat, all first rounders. Kerrigan, first rounder, Anderson, second rounder.

Settle, they drafted, but they really like. I mean, they've added to the area that they believe is a strength. They believe that they need a strong front. It's very clear and apparent you believe you need a strong front. And you look this up. I'm still trying to disprove this and I can do it. The team that has had the best rushing defense in the NFC has won the NFC, I think 14 out of the last 15 years.

and the one team that didn't was us when we won it at 9 and 7 three years ago. You're saying the best rush defense? Best total rush defense in the NFC. It's amazing. I heard the stat. I was thinking no way. It's true. I went through the last 15 years.

Whoever had the best rushing defense in total yards won the NFC, except for the one year. Not true last year. The Bears were the best rush defense in the NFC. Sorry. The NFC East. Oh, in the NFC East. Excuse me.

Yeah, okay. Last year. Yeah, no, I did it. You don't have to do it. I did it. Last year was the Cowboys. In 17, it was the Eagles. I can't believe you're going to do this.

I don't believe me. In 16, it was the Cowboys. I have, you want me to do it. So in 15, the Redskins had the best rush defense in 15 in the division? Yeah. It was, it was not a good rush defense. No. But it, and they didn't.

You're wrong. You lose. No, the Redskins were the one team. I said 14, 14 out of 15 years. Oh, oh. The Redskins in 15 were third. They allowed 1962 yards. Dallas was first.

They went 4 and 12 that year. They allowed 1934 yards. But I think the imperative number here is total amount of carries. I think if you allow less carries, that's what really dictates winning the NFC East and being a good run defense. And in part, allowing less carries means you're also scoring in your head in the second half of ball games. So I think there's some plot of that. But I do think based on the way they're looking at it, I'm sure that is something they're saying, stop the run, we win. Yeah, I mean, it's got to score, though.

You know, it sometimes bothers me if somebody gets stuck on one stat that's sort of trended in the right direction. Not that stat, though, because I've always thought that if you can stop the run, you've got a really good shot to be competitive in games. And it's true. I mean, if you look at the run defense in general, the numbers, like the top 10 run defenses, I don't have the number. but I'm going to guess what the number is, and I bet if we went back and did the research, I'm going to be pretty damn close to right, that 70% of the top 10 run defenses make it to the playoffs. Last year, I just pulled it up. The Bears were one, playoff team. Saints two, playoff team. Texans three, playoff team. Ravens 4, playoff team. Cowboys 5, playoff team. Steelers were not

a playoff team last year. Eagles were, Colts were, chargers were, lions weren't. So 80% last year. Just two teams among the top 10 run-stopping teams, the Lions and the Steelers, were not in the playoffs. But take it a step further. If you're winning in games late... Teams are throwing. Teams are throwing the ball.

Yeah, I understand that. So I think it's less cares. But essentially, the way you look at it is if you allow less than 1,500 rush yards, you're a playoff team. If you allow 1,600 or less, you're probably a playoff team. Right. In a lot of cases, 1,700 or less, you still have a very good chance to be in the

I would argue with your potential reason for having really attractive rush defense numbers that in watching these teams last year that are in the top 10, the bears were just a legit, you know, tough first-down run-stopping team. The Ravens, you couldn't run against the Ravens. I don't care if you were throwing – and by the way, they weren't up by a lot late in games, nor were the Cowboys. You couldn't run against the Cowboys, you know, for – Not always – it doesn't always play out that way.

I understand that it doesn't always play out that way, but what was it, Dax's first year, 2016. They were the best defensively. But they were up in games, huge.

They also, so no one could run the ball on it. They also dominated time of possession. And so the defense wasn't even on the field that much. Right. And that, like that year, Dallas had,

they only had 340 carries against them. That's like one of the best over the last 15 years. Philly in 17 when they won the Super Bowl, only only had 337 carries against them. They were the best run defense, but think of that offense with Wentz, how many points they were scoring. So, before we got hurt.

Anyway, that was a warm hole. I want to do one more thing with you before you go. I want to do a best case and a worst case for 2019. And I'm going to give you mine first so you can get a sense of what I'm looking for from you. My best case for the Redskins in 2019 is 9 and 7. and I'm going to give you a quick description as to why I feel that way. It's basically the inside straight, you know, it's theory.

It's the everything goes right theory. It assumes, first of all, that they do have an improved defense, because I think we've gotten carried away with how great the defense is going to be. The defense last year was improved. It wasn't a really good defense. In fact, in the second half of the season, it wasn't very good at all. But all of the other stuff, so it assumes an improved and a good, defense, a defense that approaches top 10, and by the way, I would emphasize a good run defense

in particular. Then everything else has to go right. You've got to have health, you've got to win the turnover battle, you can't beat yourself offensively like they didn't do in the first, you know, seven or eight games last year. You can't beat yourself on special teams. You can't beat yourself consistently with, you know, average to subpar coaching decisions. You know, if all of those things come together and they've got a high-level defense, nine and seven is a best case. By the way, I would mention the following, and I think you and I had this conversation off the air the other day. If you look at the top defenses last year and you think in this day and age, a great defense, like a top five defense can just carry you to the postseason with a bad

offense, not true anymore. Buffalo and Denver both had top five DVOA defenses last year. Both went six and ten. Denver had the fifth overall DVOA defense last year, and they'd case Keenham starting 16 games, but he turned it over too much. They weren't very good offensively. They went six and ten. So nine and seven is my best case. It is getting all the cards and making sure that you don't beat yourself. My worst case is three and 13. And that's not a reflection of a roster that has a 3 and 13 roster, because I think this roster is better than a 3 and 13, 4, and 12, you know, 5 and 11 roster. I do. I think that defensively alone, their roster is, you know, top half of the league defensively at worst case, maybe top 10 defensively. And it's not contingent

on avoiding the injury bug, you know, or getting the injury bug again either. The 3 and 13 worst case is the team goes into turmoil season. It's they lose early against a schedule on paper that looks tough. They start off, you know, 1 in 5, you know, 0 in 5, 1 and 6, something like that. And everybody in a weak cultured organization starts to question everybody else. And the whole thing snowballs and it crashes and burns and 313s in play. That's my best. case, that's my worst case. What's yours? You like this game where you set parameters as opposed to just pick a final record? Yes. Yeah, it's a fun game. Well, I mean, I don't want to hear numbers from you. I want to hear explanation. I know. I'm just saying, like, some smart guy must

have done this for you last year and said you can't just pick it end result. So I like what you're doing here. Did you do that to me? We did this last, yeah. I think we've done it for a lot of years. I just get so tired of that. What are they going to be? Well, they're going to be 10 and 6. No, you can't say, there's so many intangible to what they're going to be. So best case, worst case is great. I mean, it's still, okay, first of all, we'll start with best case. Which is best case, okay? It's not my case.

If I were to say it's likely, I'd say no. It's still the NFL. You do have a good defense. You play some teams that get banged up, get hurt, somehow you get hot through the middle part of the season after you find a way miraculously to go two and three, three and two. I mean, if you were to go three and two, that'd be a miracle, I think. But we'll see, but maybe a couple teams get banged up. Let's say, well, maybe you just surprise the Eagles in week one with your defense,

and all of a sudden, you know, it's a different style offense in case makes them plays. The first game is somewhat up for grabs at all times. So maybe you just surprise them. You get to three and two. And then you get in the back half of the season, and Kirk Cousins gets hurt in Minnesota, which never happens, but somehow he gets hurt. And then you win a game. and 10 and 6

are best case scenario. Okay. 10 and 6. I don't see any better than that. And you really can't poo-poo that because you came up with 9, so it's not much more than you. No, I'm not.

And I'm with you. I'm with you on the 3 and 13. I see that if it were to snowball, and I say this in being part of two different head coaches that were close to being done. In Mike, I wasn't playing, but I was around it enough.

You see what the snowball does. And so I think, I think that if it were to start to snowball to 0 and 4, 1 and 5, I don't think it recovers. I just don't think they're capable of recovering from that. And a lot of it isn't because it's a weak-minded. It's because it's hard to convince 50 guys to show up and play when they know that next year is going to be wholesale changes. Right. So in three, and if you run through this schedule, it's hard to just circle.

it's hard to circle nine wins right now. It's hard to circle nine games that you think you can win right now. And that's saying you win all of those. But you're going to lose at least one or two of those. To your nine and seven, could you win one of two of the ones that you don't think you're circling? I don't know. I think it's going to be tough.

I think it's a tough year. But all in all, if you found your quarterback and you play them and you develop him somewhat over this year and you believe you start to get some things and you make a couple more key picks because I do like this roster, you actually do have a team that could build and a team that could win a year from now. If you are right about the quarterback, if there are indications when you start 1 and 5 and you start him at Miami in week 6,

and you still end up going 3 and 13 or 4 and 12, but he is really growing and getting better, that's when you feel like you've got something going potentially into 2020. The problem is, is if you start 1 in 5 and then he comes in at Miami, and he really struggles, that's another reason 3 and 13 or even worse could be in play. No, it absolutely could. And he could struggle and he could continue to get better throughout the season, but struggle enough that you're not winning games. But you do see that he's getting better and dealing with the adversity of losing games

and still rallying his guys. And you get a team that even though, they're, I don't know, two and seven, they're playing hard and they think they can win every week. That would be good. I would be fine with that. This is the first year I'd be fine with that. I just don't see it as a Super Bowl team. I've said that.

I just see it as too much of an unrealistic possibility, large in part because I believe in what my friend says about Las Vegas and some of the things in Las Vegas just aren't that wrong, like the worst odds in the NFC East to win the conference. the Redskins are the worst. You should look this up. Has the team ever been the worst odds to win the conference and won the conference? Made it to the Super Bowl? No, but I guarantee you there have been worst odds in the conference

that have made the playoffs and won a playoff game. I doubt that the worst odds going in have ever won the conference championship or gotten to the Super Bowl or won a Super Bowl. And I'm not saying that in the Utopia world, they couldn't get to the playoffs and won a playoff game. I'm not saying that. I just don't see them winning three playoff games. Yeah. I'm looking... Too many good teams in the East right now.

Right. I'm looking... Too many full teams, teams that are ready to win. Wait, say that again? I said too many full teams, well-rounded teams, teams that are ready to really make pushes deep. There's too many saints, Rams, bears. I don't know if I believe in Kirk, but the Vikings are a very good football team from top to the bottom. And they have a good philosophy. You still have Aaron Rogers, I don't know, new deal there.

Carolina's going to be better this year. I really am interested in going back and finding, you know, what the longest shot Super Bowl participant was. There were some, like the Patriots in the 80s, that was supposed to be a bad team that got to the Super Bowl against the Bears. I mean, do you remember, you know, I've mentioned that the Cardinals before is a bad organization under Bidwell.

they got Kurt Warner and they had a couple of years and then they signed Carson Palmer and had a couple more years where they put together multiple years of sustained success, playoff games and got to that one Super Bowl. But do you know that that season that they went to the Super Bowl, I think they were 9 and 7, and they lost a game at New England in December like 47 to 7 or something like that?

I mean, I think it's one of the worst beatings a Super Bowl participant has ever taken. But anyway, yeah, the Redskins current over under in Vegas is six and a half, which I'm trying to think if the Cardinals, actually, you know what? God, look at this. This is updated on my site. Six and a half, my fault. I was looking at something else.

But see, the crazy thing is they have the worst, it's like 200 to 1 to win the NFC championship. and that is the worst odds of anybody else. Even if the Giants are five and a half, there's still better odds to win the N.C. Yeah. What do you make a Daniel Jones, by the way? What a preseason. It probably means nothing,

but it was a hell of a preseason. Yeah, he's had a great preseason. I don't think Eli's is bad. I did last year. I bought in for five weeks that Eli was completely done. And I think he had a pretty good year as that offense went on as he grew in an offense that suits him much better than the gun-style offense without an

offensive line to protect him. So I don't know if Eli's done done, but I do know that if they don't win early, you've got to play Daniel Jones, and based on the start of our conversation today, because you're just not going to teach experience. And it's not worth losing just to play somebody if you need somebody else to be in there. So that would be one of those situations where I think he'll play as soon as they're not a play team. All right.

And that'll be out of respect to Eli as much as anything else. But at the same time, they do have a long, tenured quarterback who's done some special things and can still play the game, so there's a reason to sit there guy. I've got the updated futures on the Redskins. So they're 75 to 1

with the Giants and the Cardinals to win the NFC championship. They are 200 to 1 with the Bengals, the only team with a longer shot to win the Super Bowl is the Dolcons of 300 to 1. Yeah, and you're right.

The Giants, even though they have equal odds with the Redskins to win the NFC championship, have slightly better odds to win the Super Bowl at 150 to 1. Cardinals do too, believe it or not, at 150 to. I can't believe that because I just can't even fathom that. But there's just too much unknown in Arizona with Kyler Murray that I don't think even Vegas can know. And right now, Jay Gruden is basically 3 to 1, a prohibitive favorite to be the first coach fired The second best odds are no coaches fired in season, and then it's Matt, Patricia, Doug Marone, Jason Garrett,

but nobody's close to Jay. Jay's at 3 to 1, and then no coaches get fired, 8 to 1. Heavy favorites were the first to get fired. I don't think he gets fired. I think if they were to go 3 and 13, he makes it through the season. You just don't think Dan does that anymore. But, you know, things can happen. Never know.

Never want to say never. All right. Thank you. All right. Have a good weekend. I'll talk to you. Talk to you later, buddy. See you.

All right. Thanks to Cooley. If you're listening to this show on iTunes or Apple Podcasts, rate us, review us. If you haven't done that, that helps. And also subscribe, it doesn't cost you a thing. And let everybody know that you can get the show at the Kevin Sheehan Show.com. Let's finish up the show with the first smell test of the year. Kevin looks where the John Q public is putting their cash and does the opposite.

It's time for the smell test. All right, the smell test last year on the podcast went 110, 86, and 4. The last play of the year, and I was very, very bullish on the under in the Super Bowl, which was 56 and a half. Hit that one, Aaron. 133 final. That was the last pick of the year. It was a winner.

Finish the season right around 56, 57%. Right around there. 110 up, 86 down, 4 pushes over the course of the smell test picks last year. For those of you new to the smell test, it's just simply a contrarian handicapping philosophy. I try to find the games where the public is convinced they're right about a point spread, and I go the other way. I mean, there's more to that. I've got access to information, especially offshore, that I use. and I've got my own instincts on various games.

But for the most part, it's a realization that the House wins and the public loses more often than not. And that the House advantage comes from more than just the built-in 10% Vig or fee that you pay on a lost bet. For those of you that don't understand that, if Aaron bet last night UCLA plus three and bet $100 on $100 on. UCLA and lost, which I think he did, I don't know what he bet on the game, but he loses 110 and would only win 100. So that's a built-in advantage for those accepting bets and a built-in disadvantage for those of you who wager. But I believe there's more of a house advantage. I think the house very often has games in which they understand the public's going to bet it one way and they feel more comfortable being on the opposite side. And that's where I

try to find the opportunities. I try to find those games in which the house has a point spread out there that just doesn't make sense. The public thinks it's wrong. They think they're going to make a fortune off Vegas messing up a point spread. And then what I typically do is realize they probably won't. And I go the other way. There are a lot of theories out there. There are a lot of philosophies. I've always been when it comes to sports betting and even the stock market, just a very very much a contrarian go the other way person. All right. So I hate this weekend, Darren.

I never like this first college weekend. I think it's a difficult weekend. I think a lot of the big favorites tend to be teams that are rusty and that week two, they tend to be a much better team than they are in week one. And yet I feel that way. And many times I've had dogs on weekend one. And it's been like, ah, I was almost right. Like you yesterday really liked.

Texas State plus 33 and a half against Texas A&M thinking, all right, it's rusty plus Texas A&M's in look-ahead mode against Clemson, right? Tell everybody what happened. Texas A&1 by 34. Yeah. Exactly what I thought would happen. I just didn't expect Texas State to only score 7. Right. So you were really close to being right, but you were a half point wrong, basically. I don't love this weekend, but there are three plays that think fit the criteria and I've got a little bit of information on from some of my offshore friends and contacts but again even they find week one to be difficult all right we'll start with tonight because tonight and by the way we we continue to get these points spreads from covers.com where they are on Friday they may change and so you may not get

this number, but we'll stick with the number that we give out Friday on this show based on Covers.com. All right, three plays. I like Rice tomorrow plus 21 and a half at Army. Army was awesome last year. The Army could run the football against anybody. They dominated time of possession against everybody. One of my favorite games of the years when Army nearly beat Oklahoma and Norman. Remember that? They held the ball for about 45 minutes out of the 60 played. They went to overtime and lost 2821. Army is going to run the football again this year. I like Rice's ability to potentially move the ball against Army and score some points tonight. It's an early start, a 6 o'clock start. There is tremendous, from what I understand, tremendous sharp action

on Rice. The game opened at 24. It's down to 21.5. Take the 21 and a half. Take the Owls, all right, the Harvard of Texas, Rice University, plus the 21 and a half against Army. Next up is another game tonight. I like Oregon State. God, they've been awful in recent years Oregon State has. They've been a dreadful football team the last few years. I like them tonight because I don't think that lines high enough in the public likes Oklahoma State. Another Gundy team that people think may be a little bit underrated, a team that's a team that can certainly score out of the Big 12, but we know that. I think the line is curiously low at 14.

It opened at 15 and a half and is down to 14, indicating some short money on Oregon State. Take the Beavers plus the 14 at home in the late game tonight on a Friday night. Hopefully that gets you off to a good start. One game on Saturday, Liberty plus 18 and a half against Syracuse. I can just tell you that the public's line. up on Syracuse like the game's already been played. The lines at 18 and a half, not a lot of points. Liberty's capable. They were last year as a team played Virginia pretty tight last

year. When I say tight, I think they lost by like 17, 20, 21 points, something like that. And a lot of people think that Syracuse is going to be a really good team. They're ranked. They're ranked 22nd in the country, but they're going to open up on the road. This game is a road game at Liberty. And by the way, guess where Syracuse is next week in College Park against Maryland. And the Terps open with Howard tomorrow. So I'll be watching that early. And then hopefully you got a really interesting opportunity for Maryland next week against Syracuse. But I like Liberty plus the 18 and a half. Three games to kick off the smell test. I think it's 10 out of the last 13 years. I've won, something like that. I've lost count of it over the years. I know I think maybe two or three losing seasons out of the last 13, 14 years, whatever it's been when I started doing this. So, B, rest, and by the way, the two losing seasons were barely losing seasons. I think I went 49.9% one of those years and like, you know, 49.2% one of those years. So, you know, even when the smell test didn't come through with a big win for the year,

you didn't lose big either. You basically just lost juice. All right, three picks. There they are. They are. Liberty tomorrow plus 18 and a half. And then tonight, Rice plus 21 and a half. and Oregon State plus 14. Thanks to Cooley for spending a lot of time with us.

Thanks to Aaron for producing it. Have a great holiday weekend. No podcast on Monday. Be back Tuesday with Tommy.