The Kevin Sheehan Show - Cooley on Skins & Playoff Games

Episode Date: January 10, 2020

It was a "Cooley and Kevin" Football Friday show. Plenty of Redskins discussion to start and then a game-by-game preview of this weekend's four NFL Divisional Playoff games. Kevin finished up with 3 "Smell Test" picks. <p> </p><p>Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices">podcastchoices.com/adchoices</a></p> Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You want it. You need it. It's what everyone's talking about. The Kevin Sheehan Show. Now here's Kevin. I'm here. Aaron's here. Coolie's on the phone today. We haven't talked to Cooney in a while. I think it was before the Dallas game was the last time you were on. Season's over. They've hired Ron Rivera. Do you like Ron? I like Ron. I think everybody has started to like Ron. It's been a whirlwind in the park and the building with Ron coming in and he's executing his ideas and it's top to bottom, you know, going to be Ron Rivera. And so we'll find out, as Joe Gibbs would always say, hey, we're going to go find out. But the one thing you can see is he's got a vision. He's very professional in the way he handles himself and handles the people around him. He's

interested in everything that's going on in the building from top to bottom. And he believes in he believes in these guys and the players that he already have. You know, we've talked about this off the podcast, off the air, so to speak. I just always loved the way his teams played. When his name first got mentioned, I think I texted you or called you and I said, I would love if Ron Rivera became the coach here. And I think I also said I'd be surprised if he took the job here. I think in many ways they sort of outkicked their cup.

coverage with Rivera. Cooley, his teams were always well-coached, always tough, and I just always felt like his teams got more out of less and almost over-achieved. And I know what his record is, you know, people hanging on the six losing seasons in nine years. He came in, he inherited a bad program, took him a while with a rookie quarterback, and that quarterback's been hurt, basically, the better part of the last two years as well. Yeah.

And when you look at the rest of the hires that have gone on around this league, I mean, McCarthy's a guy that's done it before in Green Bay, but rule might be great in Carolina, and Judge might be, the verdict still out on Judge in New York. Yeah, good one. Yeah, yeah. So we'll see, but it wasn't this hot hiring cycle. And so they got the guy they wanted immediately,

and I think that was smart, knowing that you, Really, you had to go get a guy. So here's what everybody wants to know. And if you're comfortable answering it, answered, and if you're not, that's okay too, and I think people will understand. But you know what everybody wants to know, and that is, does he actually have complete control? Like, is he making and calling all the shots? The hires in the people that are leaving the building and the people that are coming into the building would indicate the answer is for now, yes. Do you have thoughts on that?

everything that you just said and everything that he's executed from the second he's walked in the door indicates absolutely yes and i think that there's still going to be a lot of changes made and it will continue to indicate that yes ron rivera is absolutely in control and it's in my opinion his job to maintain that control and make sure that he maintains that control what we've joked about it and said You get married, and then, you know, the first time your buddies asked you go hang out and your wife says, I don't want you to, and you stay home, then you lose a little bit of control, and then she keeps that forever. So any little thing that comes up, Ron's just got to make sure that he keeps that control. But right now he has it. Right.

Would be my belief and would be exactly what I've seen. Are there any of the hires that you've been really super impressed with? Does anybody stand out? I mean, everybody's focused in on Jack Del Rio, obviously. Scott Turner's a bit of an unknown, but we all know his father. Any of the assistant coaching hires, and do any of them really stand out? Have you met any of them? Talk to any of them?

Anybody really impressed you? Well, I'll tell you one of my favorite things that he did is that he kept Nate Katcher. And I've had a chance to go to every practice last year and really watch this team. The Redskins throughout the entire year very closely, and I was blown away by Katzer. Totally impressed with the players responded to him. Tons energy, tons of knowledge. Does a heck of a job. And so keeping Katzer, I think, was a tremendous fire.

I like Del Rio. I got to go back and watch some of Del Rio stuff. I can't, I should know exactly who Del Rio. I mean, I know exactly where he is, but I should know exactly how I feel about the higher. I'm not, I can't, don't. And I think Scott Turner's a bit of a risk to some extent, and it's probably a risk on part where Ron feels really comfortable

with where he believes he's going to grow. Because Turner's a guy that called four games in Carolina and has been a quarterback's coach. So an incredibly creative guy, is he going to be a disciplined, limited offense guy? I don't know what Turner. I don't think anybody knows exactly what Turner is. Is it going to be Norse offense? Is it going to be a variation of that?

So I think that one's still out. The verdict still out on that one until he plays Joe, Judge. Yeah, until he plays the coach that was the special. But it's funny just that, you know, we haven't seen it a lot over the, the years special teams coaches being hired as head coaches but the john harbaw examples the all-time best really um unless you want to go all the way back to marv levy uh in buffalo um he was a special teams coach here under george allen but um yeah we don't know anything about it we can get to that in a little bit but um yeah i the the the offense is you know in terms of the way it'll be called and designed is

sort of up in the air right now unless you just assume it'll be sort of a norv style offense um i'd ask you if you if you have a sense at this point, if they're all in on Dwayne Haskins? It's hard not to be all in on Dwayne Haskins based on who he is, where he was drafted, the way he performed, the way he grew through last year. That'll be something that they'll have to make a decision on if Alex Smith is going to contribute as a starter to this team, or if Alex Smith is going to be a backup, or if Alex Smith can even play. and then the only other

I think interesting proposition would be is if they really weren't committed that's when you'd find out if you had true control and I'm not suggesting that they're not committed in any way, shape, or form. If one, the Bengals took Chey Shang and Joe Burroughs sitting at two, you'd find out for sure

if they're committed. Yeah. Or if they traded away number two for picks, got a, I don't know, six later in the six in the first and whatever, and took the kid out of Oregon or Tua or any of the other guys remaining on the board or traded further back in the draft and ended up getting, you know, the quarterback from Washington or Jake Fromm or you'd find out if they're, you'll find out

if they're committed by any moves that they make potentially in the draft, and then furthermore you'll find out by Alex Smith's progress and how involved he is. You mentioned Alex Smith. I mean, is there a chance that he can play in the National Football League in 2020? Remember when we had the bet that I owe you 50 bucks from or something? You owe me on that one. There's a chance that he comes back and he's at least on the game day roster for the last game in the season. Yeah, we made that bet. You lost. I'm not going to bet against Alex Smith. I've watched him work and I've watched his dedication to get better.

and he is he's committed to at least finding out if he can play. And I totally understand what he's doing right now. I can't, I don't know if he'll get there or not. He's not there yet. But he's getting closer every day. But it was kind of like when I tried to come back and play like four years ago after being out, three years out.

Right. I just had to prove to myself that I could or couldn't. And my belief is that I got myself ready to play and that I could have, but no one gave me an opportunity. And at that point, I was fine with him. it. Like, well, if no one gives me an opportunity, there's no way to get back in the league to play, then what else do I have to prove? And I think that's something that Alex is going through right now, that, hey, look, I just want to prove that I can get back to where I have a chance to play.

And if he does and he gets a chance, we'll see. I'd bet against it, personally. And if you want to, you know, just double or nothing the bet, I'll go ahead and do that now. I'll say that he is not going to play in 2020. Do you want to keep the bet the way it stands is that he's just got to be on the active game day roster? Sure, give you a chance to get it back. I mean, I just see, here's the thing, too, you have to think about this. This will be an interesting decision that Ron Rivera is going to have to make, and that is he counts 21 million against the cap next year.

If he comes back and he's able to play professional football, isn't he then almost by contract, you know, based on what his contract says? Isn't he competing for the starting job? Well, he's competing for the starting job if he can play because Alex Smith is a good player. But then it also, you also think, do we want to essentially hamstring the development of doing Haskins at this point? Yeah.

I mean, there's some tough decisions to be made there. Or if Alex Smith says, because by the way, Colt McCoy and Case Keenham are both free agents. If Alex Smith says, I would love to be back here and be the two. And if you guys want to draft a three later, bring in another three, and we end up having to have three this year, than we do. I'm not sure how they handle it. Well, if he can't play, they're going to have to sign another quarterback.

Well, he can't play. That's a different story, but I'm suggesting if he can play. And he was willing to be, like, when you say willing to be, I don't know if anybody else is going to pay him or sign him, knowing where he's at. Right. So this might be his last chance, and so maybe his last chance to ever play in this league is to be the two behind DeWain and continue to get better through the season and see where he is.

I'm not sure, Kev. Yeah. So I talked about it on the radio show today, and I'll just, I'll cut to the chase. all of the hand-wringing and angst and discussion over, you know, Eric Schaefer and Doug's move and Rob Rogers and all of this stuff just is tedious to me. Like, I'm not suggesting that Eric Schaefer isn't a smart guy, good lawyer, good numbers guy, the whole thing. I'm just suggesting that the reaction from a lot of people in the media and even some fans, as if, you know, he is somehow irreplaceable is ludicrous.

Am I right or wrong? You're right. I think Schaefer is, well, first of all, Schaefer's been a good friend of mine for a long time. Right. So when this happens, it's one of those things where you don't want to see it happen to your friends. Sure. And I want to, I like a world where I see my friends at work. And when I say that, I'm not suggesting that they're there and they're my friends and they're terrible or, you know,

Eric is a very competent and capable guy. And he's very good at what he does. He's been very good at managing the cap and working as general counsel. But to say that that's irreplaceable, I mean, 32 other teams have that role, and there are a lot of other people that are capable of doing that role. Yeah, I mean, I know that he's smart and he's a good guy and he's a good numbers guy and he's a good lawyer, but, you know, it's spreadsheets and, you know, NFLPA contract templates, you know, with some creativity around it.

It's not rocket science, ultimately. And you're listening to some of our media, and you'd think that they just lost the guy in the organization. That's the difference between, you know, 8 and 8 in the Super Bowl. I just don't get that reaction. And I wish him the best, and I'm sure he'll find a spot, because he was well-respected, highly regarded, and all of that. But anyway.

No, I think, and I think when you say that, I think the guy is Kyle Smith, and so I'll be interested in what direction they go with Kyle. And if he stays in his role, which is a good role, by the way, head of college scouting is the step below GM anywhere. So it's a good role, and he's done a heck of a job in that role, and he's continuing to get better and better. I think Kyle's a good manager of people. That's the other thing that you're finding out here over the last couple years, going from just scout to head of college scouting. You can see that he's good at managing people, and he's good at running the... the meetings and he's good at executing his plan.

So I think that's something that he's really proven over the last couple of years as well. For a young guy in that role, you have to prove those things. But I think he's kind of the guy, in my opinion, right now. There's other good scouts and there's other good people in our building, but that role, if you have someone that's that good at understanding how to find talent, how to match your talent to your staff and to your team, that's invaluable. course. Yeah, definitely. All right, let's get to these games in a minute. But I wanted to ask you, you know, the Redskins have not played on this weekend since January of 2006. It's been 14 years

since the team played in divisional round weekend. You were on that team. What do you remember about that game in Seattle? You guys had beaten Tampa in the wild card game. on the road 17 to 10. What do you remember about the game at Seattle that you lost? That it was fucking loud, man. Right. Like, whoa, from start to finish, it was loud. It was loud in a huddle.

It was loud on the sideline. It was wild. And that was the end of my second year. So I'd been a few places. I'd played in Kansas City that year. I'd played in Denver that year. New York, Philly. Nothing came close.

And it's a playoff environment as well. Seattle's always loud, and we've been there again in the regular season, but nothing was ever as loud in my career as that one game in particular. And I just remember thinking that we should have won the game. I remember playing well in that game. I remember a couple big catches that I made in that game. I remember the Carlos Rogers deal. I remember the plane ride home a lot.

I remember sitting there thinking, you know, it's a long year. It's my second year. This is a long year, man, and this is grueling. But we're that close. I mean, we're that close, like a couple more weeks. And this is. But I also remember thinking, and we're going to get this. We'll do this next year.

Right. And we never did it again. Yeah, you never got back to that point again. The thing that a lot of fans will remember. about that particular game is that the Redskins were up 3-0 and it was getting late in the second quarter. I mean, 3-0, hard-hitting defensive game, both teams sort of struggling offensively. And Matt Hasselbeck threw one right to Carlos Rogers for a pick six and he dropped it. And in that game, the way it had been going, a 10-0 lead was going to feel almost like a 17-0-0-lead.

you know, and it may have changed the direction of the game, and it was right in his hands, and it was like at the 20-yard line, and it was a walking touchdown, and he dropped it. And we would later, you know, go on to find out that Carlos Rogers did not have very good hands. Well, he just didn't have very good hands, because he went to San Francisco and had a ton of interceptions. Yeah, that's true. Because he needed glasses. Oh, that's what it was. That's right.

He needed glasses or contacts, which he got when he got to San Francisco, but they didn't figure it out here. Is that what happened? Yes. I also remember about that game that it was basically you and Santana, and that was it, because Taylor Jacobs, who was a spurious

pick in the draft, was on the team, and there were a bunch of receivers, I think a couple of receivers were injured, you know, from going into that playoff game. God, damn, why am I forgetting the receiver.

I mean, Thrash was on the team. Who am I? Who am I? The guy that we got from New England the year before that year. What was his name? Why am I forgetting blanking on his name?

I don't know because I should know it too because I know him. Is it Marcus? No. Patten. David Patton. David Patton. David Patton.

Yeah, I was going to say Marcus Patton. David Patton. David Patton. Yeah, he was hurt. And he was okay. He wasn't bad. that was one of those years. It was strange because you guys were really good offensively.

Coming down the stretch, you had to win those five games in a row, which included maybe the best game of your career against the Cowboys when you guys blew out the Cowboys. You beat the Giants, you beat the Eagles to clinch the playoff berth, and then you got to the postseason, and you could not move the football at all. No, at all. We got to the Tampa Bay game. We looked like the Tennessee tie.

It was almost just like Tennessee won their last game against New England. The quarterback had 72 yards passing. Mark Brunell had 41 yards passing in that game. 41 yards passing. The team had 120 yards of total offense, yet you won a playoff game 17 to 10. Sean Taylor had the fumble return. There was a pick that set up a touchdown early, and that was it. I mean, Gibbs, you know, you got the lead and you sort of went conservative a little bit.

You didn't really have to move the football. That game was a wild game. You know, I don't know. It's hard to think of the one thing, I know that you make fun of our team and how goofy some of us were and you don't think that we were as close as we think that we were, but we were close. And we were really close, and we were good. Our defense was good. But we had a, it was kind of like the formula for winning where the Redskins won some games last year where you had ball control and you ran it and you made a few big throws. We were good that year and our chemistry was so good. Our group was.

I don't make fun of the Gibbs teams. I love the Gibbs teams and those teams. And I was funny because I was going to ask you defensively because I thought that team was good defensively. And I thought, I mean, you guys knocked Sean Alexander out of that playoff game. game. And, you know, LeVar was so talented and he was starting to play well. And you had Sean, you know, obviously in his second year playing well, Ryan Clark. I love that team. I really loved some of those teams. I don't think you were a Super Bowl winner. You're suggesting that, you know, maybe, and you know what, if you win that game against Seattle, you go to Carolina. That was the

NFC championship game the following week. Probably winnable. No, you're exactly right, and then you would play Seattle, or excuse me, Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl that year. That's right. And there was, we could have beaten Carolina and we could have beaten Pittsburgh. So whether or not we were the run-of-the-mill Super Bowl team, for that year we could have been a Super Bowl team. Could have been a Super Bowl in that year. We weren't, so we don't need to talk about it, but there's a, like, there were, there weren't going to be plus seven in either of those games. No.

We would have been, no one would have been a heavy favorite against us. Yeah, Seattle, here it is. Seattle, the following week at home against Carolina, was an eight-and-a-half-point favorite over the Panthers. By the way, at that time in Carolina, it would have been a home game for us. Right. Yeah, probably would have been. There would have been a lot of Redskinned fans in Charlotte for an NFC championship game, Redskins and Panthers. It would have been at a minimum 50-50.

Yeah. You know, not to spend too much time on this, because I do want to get to the games. That 2005 season was similar to the 2012 season in terms of the most optimistic moment. I mean, I was very optimistic at the end of 2001 with Marty, but you weren't here. But at the end of that 2005 season, I was optimistic as a Redskins fan. It was Joe. It was year two of Joe, and you had finished that first year, your rookie year, pretty, strong. You know, you'd knocked Minnesota out of the playoffs in the final game of the year.

And 2005, you know, it was a Joe kind of team coming together. And so my expectation at the time was that this was the beginning of a run. I did feel that way in the moment. I think in hindsight, I throw it into the, you know, into the barrel of seasons that just didn't produce, even though this one produced more than any other. In the moment, after barely losing to Seattle in the divisional round of the playoffs, I thought that following year it was going to happen. But you know what happened in 2006? A bunch of bad off-season moves.

We lost the Vikings. We lost the Cowboys. We got back to two and two. Then we lost three straight or four. Yeah, three straight somewhere. And it was kind of like, geez, we're two and five. What the heck happened here? And our offense did not operate the way that we expected it to operate.

We had completely new offense. we had a completely new quarterback. And defensively, you made moves, and our defense wasn't good. They made a couple moves that I don't think anybody saw Ryan Clark and Antonio Pierce hurting us as much as they did being gone. Yeah. Now, you talked to every one of the players on our teams, but I wasn't playing GM at that time, so I was just, I thought they were good players, you know. I show up practice guy, go play.

Right. You talked to any of the guys like Clinton or any of the guys that were more involved or thought they were more involved, and it was like they knew innately, like, this is going to be the downfall of our defense. Yeah. But that's also hindsight. I mean, no Ryan Clark, no LaVar Arrington, no somebody else. And in comes, you know, Adam Archiletta playing out of position. You trade for Brandon Lloyd, tear up his contract, give him a new contract before the season starts. The team trades a second and a fourth for T.J. Duckett.

I mean, and to your point, it was Joe not being, you know, confident enough in his ability to scheme up an offense and handing the reins over to Al Saunders. I just look back on it, and Joe's offense was really simplistic. We were never going to be in the current NFL, but something worked for us the way we played football. Yeah. But I look back on it, and I don't, I like 80% of out of offense a lot, that 20% wasn't going to change. He was going to do it the way he was doing it. It wasn't as complicated or as hard as anybody made it.

You just needed a quarterback to operate in the timing of that offense, and we just didn't have it. We had Jason in his second year, and it wasn't a fit for him. And by the way, he wasn't drafted for that fit. He was drafted for Joe's. And it just didn't. Then the reason I mean, I know this, I've said this before, because when Todd Collins, who had been with Al forever, came in 2007 in week whatever,

it was like it clicked. Oh, this is what this offense should be. So that's how important the marriage is between coordinator and quarterback. That 2007 season, when you went back to the playoffs and you played at Seattle, was it as loud that day as it was in 2005 after the 2005 season? It was very loud, but it's one of those things where it's like, if you know you're going to go watch a good movie, it's never as good as if you go in and slow expectations. And you're the first time.

I mean, walk out and you're like, that was the best. Well, that was the first time in Seattle. Yeah. That game got really interesting, too, when the Redskins came back and actually took the lead in the fourth quarter. All right. Let's get to these four NFL playoff games right after I tell everybody about my bookie.orgie.com. You want to bet on these games this weekend? I do have a smell test coming up later on in the show.

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You have to use my promo code, Kevin D.C., KVIN, D.C, to get that offer at mybooky.orgie. All right. Let's look at these games this weekend. First of all, since we haven't talked on the podcast, go back to last weekend real quickly. And you know the game that I was rooting for. I was rooting for Kirk. I wanted him to do well. How impressed were you with what he did? Well, I went back yesterday and watched all the film and did like a mini film breakdown with Kirk. Oh, you did? It was out of nostalgia. You didn't tell me that you did that. Okay. So tell me how he played. So I just, I mean, I wanted to go through and see how he played. I mean, the positives, he hit the checkdowns early in the game

when he had to hit the checkdowns early in his game. And it looked like a Kirk kind of game. Like I wrote down a positive, like, third and 16 on the other side of the field. You get a checkdown for 10 yards, but you get yourself in the field goal range. You get three points. Right. You're probably not getting a third and 16. But you take a sack there.

You punt. You don't get a completion, you punt. Right. And you get a little checked down, you get into field goal range. Through the first half of the game, third and seven, first down, third and five, thrown out route to Adam Thieland, another first down, big second and eight throw for 19 yards. And then he starts to get a little bit hotter and a little bit hotter. He hits Thielen on the corner downfield, and they end up getting down the field before the half,

which was absolutely huge. Crucial. You know? Set up by the breeze interception. Yeah, they got stuck right there. When they're down 10-3, they get stuck on the goal line. They can't get it in, and they end up having to settle. But getting to 13-6 at the end of the half was absolutely massive.

13-10, yeah. Yeah, 13-10. Well, they took a 13-10 league, yes. But then in the second half, like I wrote this one down in circle, it. There's a third and nine with six minutes and 15 seconds in the third quarter. They're playing man to man. They bring pressure. Kirk takes a hit in the back, and he gets a seam ball out to Adam Thielen all the way on the outside. But he'd hung in there long enough to look the safety off and hold the safety in the middle of the field,

and he's drilled as he throws. So he's courageous. He's fighting in the pocket to hold the safety long enough to throw the ball at the feeling. His back doesn't pick up the backer than he needs to, and they get a huge catch down the field. And it's like, that's a big throw, dude. that's a big time throw and then later on that drive they have a third and one he boots out to the left he starts to move upwards

running forward to the line of scrimmon like maybe he's going to run it's the third and one and he lets it go to Diggs and it gets them down to the one yard line that's a big throw man that is huge yeah I thought he could have run it

I thought he could have run and made that one and he threw it to Diggs and it was sort of in traffic a little bit but Diggs made a good catch and they were first in goal at the one yeah those are big time throws obviously the overtime throws, the third and one slant to digs is huge.

You know, you look back on that and you say, look, a quarterback's going to throw 50 slants every single day in practice. They've done that forever. But in that moment, that's as big as a spot as it gets to drill that ball on digs for the third and one slant is massive. And that's a lot of confidence in your staff that they have in him to make that kind of throw to not just give it to cook. And then the last throw to the feeling, everyone understands that that throw to

feeling is just freakish. I mean, that's the biggest throw he's ever made in his life. Yeah, that's what at this point. Aikman called it. And then he's perfect on the fade to Rudolph. And I just laughed at that because the one thing he couldn't, there were two things he couldn't do here. He proved one of them wrong.

He couldn't throw the fade. Remember Jay Woodoff. Yeah. And he can't quarterback sneak it. He still can't quarterback sneak up. No, he can't. He can. I don't know how he can.

I actually thought he got out of that little, you know, When he got up out of the pile, he actually looked hurt for a moment. Did you notice that? I think he took a big shot on that quarterback sneak. Oh, yeah, he definitely took a shot on that quarterback sneak. I don't know. He can't sneak, but there were very little, there were very few negative. Like, you look at some of the negatives that I went through,

he throws, kind of forces one into Rudolph, where he's getting held on a third down and it's almost picked. I thought that was holding early in the ballgame. They had an overthrow on the goal line. Oh, that was a terrible mistholding call against Rudolph. Yeah, terrible. Coming out of that break. Yeah, the guy hooked him. When you want the P.I. late in the game on Rudolph,

they were letting it go both ways all the game. So when you look back at it. Good point. He had an overthrow on the goal line. He had a deep crosser off of a boot that he threw the digs that really one hopped and was short. And, you know, a sack on a third mate that I thought he could have moved or gotten a throwout, but for the most part, I looked at his overall stats.

He threw for 242. A lot of times you glorify these stats and you say yards after catch, it wasn't a yards after catch game. A lot of these throws were all air yards. He only had 19 screen yards passing in the game. Right. So it wasn't a screen game. And he had 109 yards on third down throws.

Yeah. He made big throws in the critical moments of the game. They were 10 of 18 on third downs. He managed the game. They owned time of possession. He kept them in scoring position when he had to keep him in scoring position. I thought he was excellent. I texted him after the game and told him.

I texted him and Rudolph told him, you guys were amazing. It was a fun game to watch. It was really a fun game to watch. You know, there were balls dropped, too. B.C. Johnson dropped a third-round, third-down conversion. Which was one of his best throws at the day, or he threw one down the middle. To Holland's. To Holland.

15, that really, that's an A-plus throw. Yeah, I mean, Aikman was nitpicking it, said he could have let him a little bit more, and it would have been six, but that's a catchable ball. Yeah, but it jumped for it, so I mean, if you just run under it, you are let a little more. So I'm worried about tomorrow because of San Francisco's defensive front. I think it's a completely different animal that Minnesota's offensive line is facing. and Minnesota's offensive line, Cooley, has been inconsistent this year. There have been games where he has been immediately under siege

and they haven't been able to run the football. And if that's the case tomorrow, they've got no shot against that team. Tell me what you think about them going into San Francisco tomorrow. Well, one, I'm concerned if you like Kyle Shanahan more or if you like Kirk Cousins more and who you really are rooting for in this game. Oh, I'm rooting for cousins. Up to our friends with Mike and so you in Miami. No, I mean, if San Francisco wins, I'm going to root for the 49ers and I'm going to root for Mike and Kyle.

But I, you know, there's just part of me, you know, it's like anything else, right? When you do what I do and what you've done at various times over the last few years, you want to be right. In many ways, I think I've already been right because I just said he was a good quarterback from the jump and he was a starting quarterback, top half of the league's starting quarterback. And so I think I've been proven right on that. But I want it to go further. I want it to be definitive. And the problem with all of the Kirk naysayers is that last week, if he has a Kirk kind of game, or if he plays well and they lose, then the New Orleans game will just be,

yeah, you know, he's Kirk Cousins except for that one time in New Orleans, you know, when he was really great against Drew Brees, you know, in the Superdome. So I think he needs to get further to really silence once and for all his doubters. No, I'm with you. San Francisco is a better team than Minnesota right now. Well, so is New Orleans. I thought it was a good matchup for Minnesota against New Orleans because I thought that their shreds scheme and stuff with the way they run the ball.

They'd be able to run the ball a little bit on them and they were. I think it's going to be tougher to run the ball against the 49ers. but Minnesota's found a way to get it done against almost everybody, so we'll see with that. But I think that for me, like semi-game planning this, because if you're going in playing Kurt Cousins, you're going to bring a lot of pressure, and you're going to expect to time things up

because he wants the ball out of his hands. And so I would look at this, almost like Case Keenham did a couple years ago, or no, excuse me, almost like Nick Fould did a couple years ago against Minnesota, is they said, we're going to go double moves, we're going to try to find a way to buy a little bit of extra time, and we're going to get shots down the field. Like if he can get shots down the field early in the ballgame off of some double moves and some good looks,

then it will change what that 49ers game plan is defensively. So they've got to find a way to keep them off balance, and I think try to find a way to get a couple explosive plays early in that game. But if they don't, you're relegated to some of those overrouts and short throws and checkdowns, I think the pressure is going to end up overcoming them. and that'll make it really tough. So I see San Francisco winning that game.

Yeah, I think they're better on offense. I think some of the boot concepts and what they do to Minnesota, like Minnesota likes to play middle-filled open, split-filled coverages. Like some of those boot concepts are really messed with that. And it's kind of an X-factor there. I think San Francisco is just too, I think they're too potent. and I think defensively, it's just... Yeah, I think it's...

San Francisco is the better team, clearly. They need Thielen, too, who's, you know, cut his ankle in practice the other day. It's funny because you and I used to always do this thing, and I've done it on the podcast and on the radio show, even without you over the last year and a half or whatever it's been, about, you know, Redskins win if. And I would look at this game, and you said take shots and maybe, you know, I mean, you're talking about, you're talking about, you're talking about,

about sort of a max protect situation and trying to hit, you know, digs on deep balls. I'm just saying even if it's third down and you're not mass protecting, you're going to have to find a way to take shots. Yeah, because part of me thinks that San Francisco's number one, the top priority defensively is going to be to stop the run. Because if they, if Cook doesn't run the football, then you don't have the play action, you don't have the boot, you don't have, you know, you don't have third and makeables. you have third and longs, and I would come out and throw the football from the beginning.

Maybe, you know, I've watched him a couple times this year with him in shotgun going hurry up, and they've been very effective that way. I am absolutely with you, and, you know, you can mix in some of the short throws, but there's got to be something taking off of some of those short throws here and there to open up the defense. And the thing is, is they have two guys that can do it. Stefan Diggs, who's as good of a double-moved player as there is in the NFL, and a deep threat, and then Adam Thielen, who's just right there as well.

So I think that they have to, I think they have to risk it a little bit. I think they've got to come out and take some risks early in that ballgame. What's your confidence level in Garoppolo playing as well as he did down the stretch in his first playoff game? Garopolo high is really, really good. And when Garoppolo has weapons around him, like he does now, and Emmanuel Sanders and Dante Pettus is a good player

and Debo Samuel and George Kittle and the other Tiddle and the other Titan, Dwell, he's a pretty good player as well. Like when he's got all of that together and then

they have the run game going and by the way, you've got to mention Juice Check who's also another he's been pretty good and Grappolo Hot is a different thing. And to me it's like

he is willing to see it just about a half second longer than Kirk. Kirk will get it out. Graspa will spend just the one hitch longer to get that big throw, and he's got such a quick release in a strong arm that he's spitting him in. Minnesota's defense got their handful this week. And it's an entirely different scheme than they had the week before against the same. I think the thing I'll be most interested in this game is just, what game plan Minnesota wants to try to execute.

Because right now you can't put Rhodes on an island, and especially against some of these guys. Rhodes was their star guy, and everything was built around that defensively, and now he's the one guy you've got to protect. So how do they protect him? Yeah, it's funny about him, because as recently as a year ago,

you know, certainly during the regular season, last year, Rhodes was considered, you know, borderline elite corner, and he was really a problem for them this year. got banged up last week in the game, so I don't even know how healthy is. All right, let's go to the game Saturday night, Tennessee at Baltimore. Do you give Tennessee a chance to run the football, possess the football, and hang in there against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens? Yeah, I think the two teams that scare Baltimore are the Kansas City Chiefs and then the Tennessee

Titans, and they scare them in different ways. You obviously saw how the afraid of Kansas City, Baltimore was early in the year. They're a little bit different team now. But we went through this the podcast. Like all the analytic plays they made and all the crazy things Harba did. But I think Tennessee scares you because the way they're running the ball right now is really hard to stop. And it's very similar defensively what Baltimore does to what New England does. They're built very similar with, I mean, obviously they have good players up front, but they're a DB-built kind of defense. You're not going to throw the ball on them. but Tennessee is going to consistently run it.

They're like a high school option team, but they run zone. They're another Shanahan team. By the way, how about that in the playoffs? The next sidetrack. How many Shanahan runs there? I think they're out of the eight. There are five Shanahan run systems. Tennessee's one.

Minnesota, San Francisco. Green Bay, Tennessee, that's four. Who's the five? Yeah, and by the way, Houston does a lot of it, too. Houston's more zone. than anything else. So it's five and a half. Minnesota, San Francisco, Tennessee, Green Bay,

half of Houston. Right. Okay. They're going to run it, and they're going to keep running it. And Derek Henry, right now, is playing as good as any back in the law. Oh, my God, he's so good. He's so hard to tackle, and he hits small holes and small creases,

and he gets so many yards after contact that if Tennessee can just find a way to score a couple touchdowns, then they'll be in good shape. Like, you looked at that last, I watched that last game, and Tannahill had two throws, both of them to Frisker, that were big throws. Huge throw.

The last one was a monster throw. Yeah, they motion them across, and they run them on a corner route, and man-to-man coverage, and Frisker wins, and it's a huge throw. They had one bad one that was the pick, that really was a throw-up for grabs under pressure, and it ended up looking worse than, I think he was just trying to get rid of it. But it's going to be the same kind of deal. Tennessee doesn't have man-to-man separators.

Baltimore will probably press them and play man-to-man. Tennehill didn't have a bunch of open receivers. It wasn't that he played bad. He didn't have nowhere to throw the ball. I didn't think he played poorly either, and he made the big throws when they had to have them. Yeah, he made two big things. He said 72 yards.

22 of them were on a screen to Henry. But Henry's a beast, and that run game, all of these teams, it's just crazy. Baltimore's first in the league, San Francisco second in the league, Tennessee, third, in the league. Like, they're all the top ten rushing. You win because you run the ball late in the year. So I think Tennessee gives them a run for their money. It's just that if Tennessee gets down, they're done.

I just don't see them coming back. Ross Tucker was on the podcast the other day, and he started to describe it that way, and I'm like sitting there visualizing it, I'm like, oh, my God, you're so spot on. Like, if Baltimore wins the toss, takes the ball, or Tennessee wins it and defers, and Baltimore goes right down the field and scores, and then Tennessee punts, and then they're down 14-0. It's like over. Tennessee has to keep, stay in a game where they can possess the football by running the football and not be in a position where they have to throw it to come back.

If they do, like if they don't get up earlier, if they don't keep it close early, it's got 38-10 written all over it, which is what Baltimore has done to a lot of teams. The interesting thing about the Ravens, Coal, and it's not going to be 38 because Tennessee's, defense is good enough that it's not going to be 30. Baltimore's rolled over everybody, except for the teams that could possess the ball by running it. Like the 49ers could ran the football against Baltimore. Buffalo ran it a little bit with Singletary to sort of hang in there. But if you haven't been able to possess the football by running it, no one's been able to stop Baltimore.

Nobody. No. I mean, it's just, it's so hard because the way they're built, they did such a good job building that team. You know, last year when the Chargers came in and, played 6 dBs, and it made it a little bit harder for Lamar to run, and they kind of stymied them early with some coverages, and Baltimore just doubled out and said, you know what, we drafted Haydenhurst and Mark Andrews in the first and second round.

We're going to repay our other dude, who's, I think, one of the best tight ends, blocking tight ends in the league. What's his name? Boyle, Nick Boyle. Yeah, yeah, right. And you're not going to play 60Bs against this. We'll go heavy personnel, and we'll run it down your throats. And they are.

And they do, and they can, and they compliment off of it, because when you get linebackers on the field, all of those tight ends are very good receiving tight ends. Hurst isn't the best, or excuse me, Boyle's not the best, but Boyle's still pretty good. I mean, it's just hard to stop. Mark Andrews there is banged up a little bit, and I don't know what his status is for the game,

and so is Ingram, but Gus Edwards is damn good. Gus Edwards is good, but really anybody's going to be good. good cyclone Alfred Moore had that year with Robert Griffin. And I don't want to take away from Ingham because seeing Brum is a really good player, but you're going to have a back-git-yards. And they play fast on offense. They're not complex. They play fast. And that's what the Gibbs teams would have evolved to. That. Yeah, probably. Kansas City, Houston, the early game Sunday, Houston got through in a crazy game against Buffalo. The Chiefs, you know, Coley, they haven't been so dynamic and so unstoppable offensively since Mahomes came back.

Do you give Houston a shot? I have a shot, and I think it starts with Kansas City's defense, who is getting better every single week and is dynamically better than last year. By the way, I wish we would look like the Honey Badger is one of the best players in the league. He's one of the most versatile plays in the league, Tyra Matthew. I love him. He's phenomenal. But Spagnolo has done a really good job with that defense.

just don't see Deshawn Watson right now, seeing the field picking blitzes up, he's struggling back in the pocket. If he doesn't have his one read, he doesn't know if he wants to try to move in the pocket or scramble or check down, and he's taking hits back there, and Kansas City's going to get after him with a ton of pressure. I think it's going to be a problem for Deshaun Watson in this game. If I'm Houston on the other side of that, the counter side of that, is I think Deshaun Watson needs to get a big play, a big run early in the game.

I almost want to design a big run. Like a week ago, he had a big run, I think, in the third quarter, and it kind of set him off. And then he was a different player. Like, you've got to get him going early and feel comfortable early, and they'll have to run the ball. They can. But I just – Kansas City's offenses with two weeks,

if Andy Reid doesn't have something ready, that would look like Drew Locke in Denver about a month ago against Houston, I'd be surprised. I don't think this one. I don't think – I think this is probably the worst game of the weekend. Really? It's a playoff game. game, but I think Kansas City is a very much club right now.

I think I'm going to be on the other side of that with you plus the points. It's a big number. It's 10. And I think Houston played a very good defensive team last week. And I know Kansas City's improved, but I actually think they've got a chance to play and play well. And, you know, I like their running backs. I think Carlos Hyde is good. I think Duke Johnson's versatile.

I like both their backs. Yeah, I like both of their backs. If Will Fuller plays, they're different on office. Yeah. They missed them last. week, definitely. Last game of the weekend is Seattle at Lambo. Green Bay is a four and a half point favorite. This is the one where every NFL analyst and expert is convinced that Russell Wilson's going in there and beating the Packers, who have not really been super impressive this year,

even though there are two-seat. How do you see it? First, if you had to pick a quarterback, pick one of those two. It's actually really hard because I think Russell Wilson is an absolute winner, and difference maker in almost every game he plays. I think right now, I think I would take Russell Wilson. I would take Russell Wilson right now. That's big for you because you haven't always been the biggest fan, although you've said he's having a ridiculous year. He's had a ridiculous last couple years.

He's gotten so much better as a player. So I watched every one of these last playoff games on film, offense and defense, and when you watch them against the Eagles, it wasn't perfect, but everything's Russell Wilson. we got some tweets like you guys were wrong on D.K. Metcalfe. Yeah, well, I knew that in week 10. Week 10, I didn't need to see that playoff game. And he made some excellent plays in that ballgame, and his burst,

and his speed has been impressive. Do you think Philadelphia would have won with Wentz? Yeah. I do, too. Why do you say that? Because I'm not blown away by Seattle's defense. They're not the same defense as they've been in the past. They give up a ton of yards passing.

you can run it on them. They turn people over, but they also don't get a lot of pressure at time. They're not a big sack team. I think Wentz would have had some time. The one thing you wonder is, did he have enough around him? I mean, is Greg Ward is your number one receiver. I mean, Josh McCown, they moved the ball up and down the field with McCown. I mean, they were, they, I don't know how many times they punted with McCown. It wasn't a lot. And they just, you know, they missed fourth downs that I think Peterson should have kicked field. goals on. Sure he thinks he should have kicked

Philgoals on as well. Now, not then. I just think Wents would have been a better Red Zone quarterback than McCown. Yeah, Wendt's pretty good, man. He's a pretty good quarterback. I know it seemed like he isn't in a couple of things that come out,

but he's pretty good quarterback. I'd bet on Wins. But the reason I would, I mean, in this instance, here's a thing. Seattle could not run the ball. And this is my concern for Seattle into this week's game, is they don't have any backs.

Marshall Lynch is not Marshall Lynch anymore. No, they lost Penny and they lost Carson. They're both out. Right. Yeah, they can't run the football. It's all Wilson and Metcalf. And they've been banged up front in their offensive line. They lost the tight end that they drafted a year ago,

so they're sitting there with Luke Wilson and I think Jacob Hollister, where it's number 48. You cannot block anybody. He went to Wyoming, I think. I think Hollister played with Josh Allen. I think he was his tight end. I'm pretty sure. I may be thinking about another white slow tight end,

but I think Hollister... No, you're right. Am I right about him? I just looked it up. Yeah. No, I'm not saying he's not doing an adequate job for where he is, but they've been banged up up front, and you're looking at those couple tight ends,

It's hard to get to the edge, and Travis Homer and Marshawn Lynch. Travis Homer, who actually ran really well against the 49ers in that final game of the year. But they're struggling to run the ball, and that was a huge asset that they'd had going through this entire year. Now, the one thing I'd say is the crazy thing when you watch them, Russell Wilson can take a sack on first down, or he can take a sack in a second-down situation. It's still picked up. 16 or third and 16, and then he's picking it up. You know, it's a dagger.

Like, how is he getting this? It's amazing. And by the way, if he's not running for it, watch close when you watch this game, the second he even starts to deviate from the pocket, those receivers are adapting and adjusting. Their scramble drill is the best in the league. Like, he hit D.K. Matcalfe on a scramble drill early

and they came up the right sideline. Yeah. It was a thing of beauty. You know what I mean? Yeah, I know. I know. You hit Tyler Lockett on a couple scramble drills, and he wrote,

get Lockett on one scramble drill that ended up getting called back for holding. I wrote down. Let me find where I wrote down this note. Like, oh, yeah. Wilson's Scramble Drill off script to D.K. Metcalfe and to Tyler Lockett is magic. That's why I wrote magic. It's amazing. And so here's the thing for Seattle.

They'll live and die by the big play. They're going to live and die by the big play. And why they're winning still is because Russell doesn't turn it over. But what you said is so true is that their third and long means nothing. It's like he moves around, he jumps inside, then he bounces out, and here are the receivers, and they're adapting, and then somebody usually at the end of that, is wide open, you know, and it's well, it's not even close to them. How many third and tens and longer does he get? It's, if you've got, if you bet against Seattle, which I think I'm going to do

on Sunday, because I think everybody likes him, the worst down seems to be third and 11, third and 12. Where's so many other teams, he does not check it down much. Short quarterbacks can't see the checkdown. Is that the reason? Really? That's what Rex Grossman told me a few years ago. He said, I know where the checkdown is. I just can't throw it. I can't see it. Yeah, well, he liked to throw it deep.

All right. Well, that's because he couldn't see the short route. So Seattle or Green Bay? I'm not convinced with anything Green Bay has. And I think in part because offensively, I just don't think they've quite figured out their identity. I think Rogers is a gun quarterback, and I think he sees it really well out of the gun, but they're at the Shanahan's own scheme, and they don't get all of their zone things. Their best plays on this year are Shanahan boot concepts.

And so as soon as Aaron understands, like, hey, I don't need to be McCarthy quick game on first and ten. Like, let's just go and hand the ball off, and let's run it, and let's get some boot action stuff, some run-action-pass stuff. And then they'll be in great shape. But it's the mirror of your coordinator and your quarterback. So they can be explosive, and they can make some big plays. And I like some of Green Bay's weapons. And I'm not convinced yet defensively for Green Bay, but I'm convinced enough that they'll be able to handle the Yellow's run game,

which is almost unheard of. And then the one thing they can do is get after the past a little bit. So I like Green Bay in that game. All right, last one, I'll let your run, because we're right sitting here. You're over the 38 minutes, you promised me. Well, you went at 42. I'm assuming we're right around 42,

Aaron, somewhere around there. I haven't been keeping track. I have a question for you. My question is as follows. In the first playoff game of the weekend tomorrow, Minnesota at San Francisco, who do you think Dan and Bruce want to win the game? Minnesota.

More than Kyle? Really? I would have thought Bruce definitely would have preferred San Francisco over Kirk. Oh, well, you can play it both ways. I would bet you that Dan would want Minnesota. Dan wants Minnesota, Bruce wants San Francisco? I don't know. They don't like Kirk. He doesn't like Kirk.

Well, I know that they've been rooting against Kirk Cousins since he left. Yeah, but they're also rooting against Kyle in that staff. But Kirk advancing makes them look worse. It's old news. All right, enjoy the games. I'll talk to you over the weekend. Okay, see you. All right, thanks to Cooley.

Let's get to the smell test. Kevin looks where the John Q public is putting their cash and does the opposite. It's time for the smell test. I get to the picks in a moment. You know, I love this weekend. I think it's one of the best weekends in sports errand. There are a lot of, we love college basketball, so we love that first. weekend of the NCAA tournament. I think Thanksgiving weekend is a phenomenal sports weekend,

the extended weekend that really starts, you know, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday with all the, you know, college football, all the pro football, and you've got big time college basketball getting started as well with some holiday tournaments. But this is a great weekend. Last weekend is a great weekend as well. I was thinking about the Redskins in particular, and, you know, I mentioned it with Cooley earlier. The Redskins haven't played on this weekend. weekend for 14 years. I mean, that's unbelievable when you think about it. It's been 14 years. It's just once in the last 20 years that they've played on this weekend. This weekend is, you know, producing some people that you thought were going to be here, like teams like, obviously, Kansas

City. I think a lot of people expected potentially a team like Green Bay or Seattle to be here. you know, this late in the season. But it was, it's interesting when you go back and you look at the preseason predictions, and I did that last night, you've got a lot of teams that were supposed to be here that aren't here. You know, that's the NFL, man. Teams like the Cowboys, the Bears, the Rams, you know, New England. Indie, Cleveland was a real chic pick to win a playoff game and be playing on this weekend. You know, you basically have half.

the teams that were projected to be here every year aren't. The NFL is the most difficult sports league to predict. Every year is a new year. And that's what makes the NFL picks even with the smell test very difficult. All right. So last week we had four unders and we had three underdogs. I went two and two on the smell test. I'm saying overall the four games produced three underdogs and four unders in terms of the total. I had two winners in Minnesota and Houston and two losers with the over in the Houston game and Philadelphia. And I do think if Wents had played, that that probably would have worked out. So tomorrow's San Francisco, Minnesota game, there isn't a public side.

That game is really split pretty much right down the middle. Same thing on the total. Tomorrow night, however, there's a lot of belief in Tennessee. So the first pick of the weekend, I'm going to give the Ravens out minus the 10. It's a big number. Most of you know I like taking points. There's sharp money on Baltimore. That lines back up to 10.

Would not surprise me if that number goes a little bit higher, Aaron, as we get closer to kickoff. So grab it now at 10. But yeah, there's some public action on Tennessee, sharp action on Baltimore. I'll take the Ravens laying the 10. That is probably the one weather game of the weekend, rain in the forecast tomorrow night in Baltimore here as well, but warm, you know, exceptionally warm over the weekend, which will be nice. Sunday early. I like Tennessee plus the 10. Very few people are on Tennessee. I like Houston, excuse me, plus the 10 at Arrowhead against Kansas City. I have a feeling this is the sneaky close game. Nobody thinks it's going to be close. Houston barely. beat Buffalo. They'd come from behind to beat Buffalo. It's Mahomes. It's Andy Reed. It's Arrowhead with a week's rest. I think Houston's going to find Kansas City easier to move the football against than Buffalo. I also see this as being a high-scoring game. I'm not giving it out, but I would lean

the over in this game, which is now 51. But the official smell test release in this game is the Houston Texans plus the 10. And then the final game of the weekend, and the times on the Sunday games are not what they typically are, which is 1 o'clock 425 or 1 o'clock 440 during the playoffs. 305 and 640 on Sunday. So they're moving that second game into prime time. Much of it will be in prime time on the East Coast. Green Bay is a four and a half point favorite over the Seahawks. This is the game, the public, and all of the so-called experts are convinced about.

And you know what? From a straight analysis standpoint, I think I'd lean Seattle too, but the smell test tells me Green Bay laying the four and a half. I think what it'll come down to is that Seattle defensively just isn't going to be good enough in this game. So three plays, official plays, Baltimore minus 10, Houston plus 10, and Green Bay minus four and a half. Lastly, before we go for the weekend, it's been a crazy two weeks. Two weeks ago we were sitting here leading into the final regular season weekend of the year.

were going to play the Cowboys, and we had no idea what the hell was going to happen. I mean, I had a strong feeling that Bruce would be out. You know, at that point then, it became clear. I think the Callahan wasn't coming back. But, you know, Marvin Lewis's name was being mentioned. Ron Rivera's name was starting to get mentioned. Other names were being mentioned. We didn't know.

If you recall, Aaron, two weeks ago, there was like this report from somebody that I hadn't heard of. Maybe others had heard of this particular person. But he came out with a report that Urban Meyer, was going to be the head coach on that following Monday, and Alex Smith was joining the front office. And we spent time talking about that on the radio show and on the podcast. The two weeks later, you know, there's clarity. There's real clarity.

And it's better than I could have ever thought two weeks ago. Bruce is gone. Callahan and that coaching staff are gone. Ron Rivera is in. And Ron Rivera's got real power. Now, I don't know how long it will last, but Ron Rivera's already ousted two people very close to Dan Snyder, Eric Schaefer and Larry Hess, the head athletic trainer,

two guys that were with Snyder for the last 17, 18, 19 years, somewhere in that neighborhood. This is an indication that it is Rivera's show. I think that is a really, really good sign. And I am very, I'm cautiously optimistic, at the very least, because they have some talent on this team, I'm starting to think that if Dan just completely stays out of the way and they get to do what they want to do, they'll be well-coached,

they'll make the right decisions here or enough of them to have a significant turnaround in 2020, like three wins to maybe eight wins. That's a big turnaround. And who knows? It's the NFL. Like I just went through. Six, seven teams that you think are going to be in it aren't,

and six or seven teams that you're absolutely sure won't be in it. end up being in it. San Francisco was 4 and 12 a year ago. They're the number one seed in the NFC playoffs right now. I'm not predicting that. I promise I'm not predicting that. All right. Thanks to Cooley for jumping on the show today.

Thanks to Aaron for producing the show today. Enjoy the weekend back on Monday to talk about all of these playoff games.