The Kevin Sheehan Show - Dan Quinn Joins Show

Episode Date: August 28, 2025

Kevin opened with the value of Jayden Daniels and other NFL starting QBs to the point spread. Commanders' head coach Dan Quinn joined Kevin on the show to discuss his team as it gets ready for the mos...t anticipated season in a quarter century. Kevin finished up with his first two "Smell Test" picks of the season for tonight's college football slate. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:02 You don't want it. You don't need it, but you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Sheehan Show. He is Kevin. Dan Quinn will be my guest on the show today. He'll join me in the next segment. Window Nation is the presenting sponsor of this podcast. If you need new Windows, call them.
Starting point is 00:00:22 86690 Nation or go to Windonation.com. Mention my name and they'll come out and give you a free in-home, no obligation. estimate. I've got my first smell test pick of the year. It's coming up in the final segment. This weekend's smell test picks for tomorrow night, Saturday, Sunday will be on tomorrow's show. This from Connor Z to kick the show off. Kevin, while I know a lot of Heineke-Hivers would be hard to deal with, he actually makes sense for the commanders if Mariotta is going to miss games. He is a poor, poor, poor man's Jaden Daniels, and he's a good locker room presence. Why not? Connor, I was not being sarcastic with Tommy yesterday on the show when I said that Taylor Heineckee would be a good fit. Now,
Starting point is 00:01:15 let me just say, I don't think they're going to sign Taylor Heineke. They kept Josh Johnson. That is an indication keeping Josh Johnson, I think it is, that there is some concern about Marcus Marietta here early in the season. He's dealing with Achilles, tendinitis. By the way, he took back number eight. When I say took back, he never wore number eight here, but he wore number eight pretty much his entire NFL career. He wore 18 here, but with Brian Robinson Jr. gone, number eight was available, and Mario Yoda snagged Jersey number eight. I don't think we're going to find out for sure about Marioada's availability until the first injury report next week. There's no reason to, you know, tell the Giants this far in advance who the backup quarterback is going to be,
Starting point is 00:02:04 unless they have to do something, you know, roster-wise. But, Connor, I agree. You'd have to use more pores in your poor man's Jaden Daniels description, like another 20 of them, for it to even be remotely close to true. You know, Taylor's biggest issue was that he just, couldn't throw the football at an NFL starter, you know, level. But, you know, he had high-level attributes as an off-schedule playmaking quarterback. He was great at that.
Starting point is 00:02:42 He was also tough and smart, and as I've said many times, he was a gamer. He did not get signed by the Chargers for their practice squad, so he's still out there. Again, I don't think he's going to sign here. It's possible, I guess, that his career might actually be over, but I would bet that somebody will pick him up. That's my guess. This from Frank, Kevin, you said that Terry's value isn't what most people think it is when it comes to the difference in win totals for the season.
Starting point is 00:03:18 I think you said if he didn't play for this team this year, they would win one less game. would Jaden's absence mean? Well, Jaden's absence would mean many games, many, many games. Yeah, look, it's not about Terry per se. It's about every position that isn't quarterback. You know, numbers like, you know, EPA expected points added, a lot of other advanced numbers will tell you that unless it's the quarterback, the other positions don't impact winning anywhere near to the level that quarterback does. And Terry isn't a takeover the game, as I've said many times in the past, dominant receiver.
Starting point is 00:04:05 They would miss him, and I think they'd miss him a lot. And I think he would be the difference between having a really good chance to be just off the charts brilliant offensively versus maybe just good or functional offensively. But I think ultimately, like last year, if Terry McClure didn't play, I still think Washington would have won 11 games, 10 games, worst case, and still made the postseason. I mean, we don't have to worry about that. Here's something to consider, though, actually. I found this the other day, and I've been meaning to get to it, and I just haven't had an opportunity to get to it.
Starting point is 00:04:44 But I think it'll be interesting for not only people like me who bet on football, but I think for everybody. Ben Fox is the senior sports betting analyst at Yahoo Sports. I think we've had Ben on the show. And he wrote a story the other day in which he interviewed 12 odds makers from 11 legal sports books across the country, trying to assess value for every starting quarterback as to what that starting quarterback is worth to the point spread. So if, you know, Josh Allen is out and Mitch Trubisky, his backup, has to play, how does that impact the point spread? How many points does the line move?
Starting point is 00:05:33 And he ranked them 1 through 32 in terms of the most valuable quarterbacks to the point spread to the most, to the least valuable of the projected 32 starters in the league. But as the setup for this story, he talks about how really it's only quarterbacks that move the point spread. He writes only a handful of skill position players like Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase and also Saquan Barclay. But it's a quarterback and the loss of one that really impacts the point spread. I do think that last year there was a game in which T.J. Watt was going to be out and the line moved. Now Pittsburgh, a defensive team and Pittsburgh, you know, not relying as much on its quarterback.
Starting point is 00:06:22 That may have been the reason, but that was an aberration. You know, 99 times out of 100, if a line moves in a big way, it is an injury to a quarterback. Maybe not 99 times out of 100, but certainly 90 times out of 100. It is an injury to the starting quarterback. So anyway, here were the results, the most valuable quarterback in the NFL as it relates to the point spread. And by the way, this does factor in the backup quarterback as well. You know, who's coming in for that quarterback. But Josh Allen was number one by point spread value, 6.98 points.
Starting point is 00:07:04 If he's out and Mitch Trubisky plays, the line will move essentially seven points, 6.98 points. That's number one in the league. Number two, Patrick Mahomes at 6.94 points. The backup there is Gardner Minchew this year. I didn't remember where Gardner Minchew had landed, but it's Kansas City. Lamar Jackson was three. Cooper rush is his backup. The line would move 6.65 points if Lamar was out.
Starting point is 00:07:36 Jalen Hertz, number four. The backup quarterback there is Tanner McKee. The line would move 6.3.1. points. And then Joe Burrow was number five. Jake Browning is the backup. The line would move 5.6 points without him in the lineup. Where did Jaden Daniels come in on this list? Ninth. The line would move 4.98 points if he was out and Marcus Marioda started. That speaks to a certain level of things don't change much with Marcus Mariotta. coming into the game.
Starting point is 00:08:16 And some of what was, you know, in this story quoted from some of these odds makers is how much does the system change when the backup comes in? And in Jaden's case, it doesn't change that much. They play the exact same system. But that was ninth among the 32 projected starters in the NFL. So if Jaden doesn't play, knock on wood, that that doesn't happen. And Marcus Marriota has to start a game. The line would move five points.
Starting point is 00:08:48 And again, Josh Allen nearly seven points. If you're interested, you know, you've got some projected rookies. And actually, when this was written, Tyler Shuck was the projected starter in New Orleans. Actually, Spencer Rattler is going to start for the Saints on opening day. But that was the least amount of point spread differential at 0.69 points. there's very little difference between Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones, and then the third least amount, excuse me, in terms of a point spread, would be Michael Pennix Jr. to Kirk Cousins.
Starting point is 00:09:28 The line difference would be about a point, and that would be it. But I thought that was interesting, and that really speaks to, you know, the value of quarterbacks. You lose a high-level quarterback. I mean, it doesn't even have to be a high-level quarterback. I was looking here, like Caleb Williams, if he's out, the line moves 4.1 points. I thought that was interesting for a guy that, you know, has struggled for sure. So, yeah, you know, in terms of value to games, it's all about the quarterback.
Starting point is 00:10:04 You're missing a top wide receiver. Sure, it's going to have an impact. but over the long haul, just barely a fraction of what losing a quarterback means. And I think we all understand that unless, like Ben Fox wrote in this story, you've got a Justin Jefferson or a Jamar Chase. Washington added, by the way, yesterday Donovan Edwards to the practice squad. I took note of it because Donovan Edwards was one of those backs that I actually liked coming out in the draft. Donovan Edwards played big-time college football, you know, in terms of his performances in the biggest of Michigan's games. The National Championship game against Washington a few years ago.
Starting point is 00:10:52 Seemingly every game against Ohio State. He was one of those guys, I was surprised, didn't get drafted. He was projected night two early day three. He did not get drafted. Of course, you know, the scouts know more than worse. We know, but I loved his running style. I thought he was a great vision runner. He was a really good pass catcher out of the backfield.
Starting point is 00:11:17 He had explosiveness in burst, and he played his best football in the most meaningful of games. He ended up with the Jets, and the Jets have Breece Hall, you know, Braylin Allen. Like, that's a position they are covered pretty well. I mean, look out, by the way, for number zero in a jet. Jets uniform this year. Braillean Allen. The Wisconsin back has a chance to become, I think, a star in the NFL. Not a good team that he's on. You know, speaking of that, part of the reason Donovan Edwards didn't, you know, maybe get picked in the draft is Michigan was terrible on offense last year because they had no quarterback. So you were talking about loaded boxes, you know, game in
Starting point is 00:12:04 and game out. All right. Let's get to the head coach. Dan Quinn will do that. after these words from a few of our sponsors. It's good to have prize picks back. It means it's football season. College football's already back. Pro football right around the corner. Don't miss any of the action this season on prize picks. Prize picks is simple to play.
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Starting point is 00:19:23 It is 5.30 in the morning. That's early for a lot of you out there. I would guess that this is not very early for you, right? Well, Kevin, it's good to be on with you, man. Welcome to the life of a coach. So glad to be on with you and talk some commanders football and getting ready, man. You just said, welcome to the life of a coach. You know, I think I may have mentioned this to you last year,
Starting point is 00:19:50 or you mentioned it when I asked you about it. You've lived in like a dozen or so places over 30 years, right? Correct. Is there a moment or has there ever been a moment that you just weren't sure about the lifestyle? Oh, man, no. Honestly, I don't think I've ever really been asked that. But it is. It's way more than the job.
Starting point is 00:20:14 I would say it's definitely a lifestyle. And sometimes I think in lots of professions takes what it takes. And so some of the early hours are really good that you get some time for the players are there because they get there early and they stay late. But during that time, we're doing the teaching and the interacting. So the times before they get there and the times after they leave is our best prep time for them. All right. Let's talk some football. When you get asked by someone who's close to you in your life, so Dan, what's the team look like this year? What's your answer? I'd say this is a really tough and competitive crew.
Starting point is 00:20:57 And I thought that going into camp, and then now as the roster trims down, there was some real position battles, Kev, that we thought would be that way. There's some positions that were deep, and so to see the offensive lines, the defensive lines, all the padded work that we needed to get our line of scrimmages right, we thought that would be an important part of our camp this year, and it certainly was. Was there a player that surprised you, you know, during camp in a positive way, meaning you didn't know what to expect or you didn't have the highest of expectations, but he really blew you and the other coaches away?
Starting point is 00:21:39 Well, the first part, I would say, is it's not with expectations or that, but getting to see the new players. So you're, you know, for instance, like on offense, you're getting to see Connoll, You're getting to see Connerly. You're getting to see, you know, Bebo. You're getting to see guys who, you know, your first look at them,
Starting point is 00:22:00 first on practice, how they're interacting. That's J.K. Kinlaw and Wise and Trey Amos. So those would have been ones that, you know, I see that happening. There's a whole other subset, I would say,
Starting point is 00:22:14 Kev, of guys who are, like, making the leap. And I would say, Juan Martin is one for me that I have already had high expectations for him, but then to see the type of camp that he had, the work that he's put in, I feel like he's one player that I think is really about to go big.
Starting point is 00:22:34 I think I asked you this one of the times I had you on last year. How much do you really know about your team before the real games begin? We all as NFL fans know the league changes so much year to year. Hell, it's really a week-to-week league in so many ways. ways. How much can you really know about your team until the real games begin? Well, you definitely have to go, you know, through, you know, some weeks. You want to make sure identity that part is right, Kev. We want to make sure, like, you and all of our friends and fans that watch us play, like, man, these guys absolutely bring how hard they play. And so you have to go show that. You've got to go demonstrate that. I've seen the way they practice,
Starting point is 00:23:19 but it does take, you know, a few weeks for that identity, you know, come into shape and to show it. It's not something, you know, that you could just say, man, you got to, you got to see it. You got to demonstrate it. And so that does take place through the first, you know, quarter of the season or so. But they've got to put the work in to put themselves in a space to do that. But that would be one thing. The team's identity, man. We've got to have that every single time you go.
Starting point is 00:23:49 This is how we get down. And if you can demonstrate that over and over again, then I think you've got a real shot to play well. Yeah, that's something you've talked about since the moment you got hired. The other thing you talked about actually before last season was, you know, we don't use the word rebuild. We use the word recalibrate. Be honest, did you have any clue this time last year that recalibration meant 12 wins,
Starting point is 00:24:17 two road playoff wins in 60 minutes from the Super Bowl? No, I wouldn't probably allowing myself to go that far out. I was just trying to throw an identity to make sure that part would be right. But I think that does go back to that, Kev. We don't place one opponent above another man. We want to make sure every time we go they get it all. And that's kind of the byproduct of doing it that way. So no, at that time, that pre-calibration wasn't there.
Starting point is 00:24:49 I knew that we had competitive guys. I knew our team had connected, but it probably didn't become the team we were going to be, may have come after we lost three in a row, which in the NFL, man, that is hard. And so we became tougher, a little more resilient on the other side of that. I wish we didn't have to go through that. but as a team, sometimes you do have to go through the tougher moment to really test yourself, do what your resolve is all about, and you come out the other side of it,
Starting point is 00:25:25 there is a toughness and a hardness that you can appreciate, and those are things that matter because if you find out when it gets real hot, who's down for it? You know, looking back, and we've looked back a lot on last season, because, you know, easily it was the most exciting season we've had around here in, you know, three plus decades. That three-game losing skid, which started with that Pittsburgh loss at home that was, you know, about a half inch away from a first down and nearly field goal range at the end. And then, you know, four nights later in Philadelphia, a quick turnaround.
Starting point is 00:26:04 And then, you know, the incredible throw to Terry against the Cowboys, but the missed extra point. how much of that stretch was about Jaden's health? You know, once he got back into his flow and into his rhythm that was good, but you're right, that's kind of the life in the NFL where Pittsburgh game could have gone the other way. You know, the Dallas game could have gone the other way. But it didn't. And I wish, like I said, we didn't have to go through those, but we did.
Starting point is 00:26:37 But, you know, as far as like his health, like he was, he was. was ready to go and ready to go battle for it. So it was just us not nailing some opportunities. You know, like for instance, you're talking about the extra point or not executing like we need to at the end and we're going to work really hard to
Starting point is 00:26:54 make sure those moments, man, we're all about that. You know, he said earlier this summer or not that long ago he was part of an event, I think with Sequin Barkley and maybe Jemar Chase, I think. He said that
Starting point is 00:27:10 his rib was broken in that Carolina game. Was he playing with broken ribs? He did have a rib injury, yes. Is that all I'm going to get out of you about that? I think that's all you're going to get today, Kev. Yeah, but I think what it speaks to is like whatever the injury, like this is a tough competitor man. And that's, you know, like things that you don't know.
Starting point is 00:27:40 during scouting and during the process, and all of a sudden he say, man, like, this guy's really going to put in whatever it takes to go play. And it's one of the things, one of the many things, that he and his teammate and myself, why we respect him so much, he's tough, but it's all the unseen work that he puts in to get ready, you know, to go play. We talked about Cliff, you know, arriving early. You know, Dayton's not far behind in terms of the time he gets here to really nail it for him and for his teammates. You know, I was going through the list of the quarterbacks that I think you have been with on teams that you've been a coach. And the list is actually really impressive. I mean, it's Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Jeff Garcia, I think when you were in San Francisco.
Starting point is 00:28:31 Brett Farv, I think you were with the Jets when Farve was there for that one year. Am I right about that? That is correct. You're correct. Matt Hasselback. I mean, that's a decent list. I might be missing one or two. How does... Was that the list?
Starting point is 00:28:48 That's excellent, yes. How does Jaden's potential, you know, his upside compare to some of those guys? You know, what I've learned, man, like, I don't compare Jaden to anybody. And here's why he just constantly is pushing it to go to the next space. But what I can tell you is that, man, does he put the work in to put himself in a spot that plays really well? And he's so unique in what he does. He can use his legs. He can get outside the pocket.
Starting point is 00:29:18 So he plays in a different style, but he's so effective. He keeps growing and you'll see an improved version of Jaden in 2025. So this is not a player that sat back, you know, and said, okay, I did well. It was just the opposite of him going for it again. His accuracy and training camp has been still on point. His footwork that he wanted to improve upon. So, yeah, that's a good thing. This guy is stealing, and he's still going for it.
Starting point is 00:29:49 And I'm pretty pumped to see where it takes it. You know, you just mentioned footwork was what did he specifically need to improve on heading into this offseason? And it sounds like you feel like he has. It has. There are specific throws where, you know, for instance, like a, you know, a deep throw to the left, but not over striding. So it may seem small to us or to a listener, but those are the kind of details if you're really wanting to, you know, find the edges, like he's going to find him. And so that's an example of what he was going through and how to do it. It wasn't a motion shift so often, you know, with quarterbacks, all their power and the strength is, you know, coming from their legs. And so to have that part right was a big deal that he wanted to work on hard, and he definitely has. So I really respect that about him. Like he is a guy, like I said, man, that is just always ready to put it in to improve.
Starting point is 00:30:48 And when you're already a good player, sometimes that's hard to make it to the next ceiling. When there's this big gap, you know, like we're talking about this, maybe some of the guys going from year one to year two where these big leaps and bounds normally take when you're already hitting at a high level, you have to be really detailed about the things you need to do to take it to the next one. He's willing to do that. You know, I was thinking about something, especially since you are a defensive coach, there's this thing where people say, well, you know, an offseason of preparing for Jaden, defensive coordinators, you know, have had a whole offseason to figure out how to defend this guy.
Starting point is 00:31:27 Is that a real thing off seasons to come up with ways to stay? a talent like Jaden Daniels? I think it's hard because we also added other weapons around them too. So there's things that we have done in 2024. Now we've added some things, some ways we want to play, some different concepts. So I get the narrative, but it's much easier said than done to say, okay, in this game against this coverage, it might have not gone too well. well, do you even play that coverage?
Starting point is 00:32:03 And so those are the things, you know, that you better, you know, look long and hard about how you want to go and what you want to do to play because he also put it in the work. So it's a narrative. I don't know if it's as popular or as prevalent as some people think it is. So that's how I think of that. Interesting.
Starting point is 00:32:29 Did you go through the exercise? for the benefit of Cliff and the offensive coaches of saying, you know, this is what I would do to adjust to him? Or did you basically just give me the answer that it's really difficult and it's not necessarily, you know, the inside narrative? It definitely did for the entire offense to say more specific than just, excuse me, more broad than just Dayton on the first part to say, kind of like an audit that you would do to say what went really good, what needs to change, what do we want to adjust, you know, kind of what we need to take out that we were practicing but wasn't as effective. So you do that part first to say, let's make sure these things that we're doing are really highlighted. And then, yes, as a coach that can look at it from a
Starting point is 00:33:19 different lens, it may not be coverage related. It may be, you know, a certain pressure, a certain look that you want to find to say, is this something that you would try against him? And so that's really, you know, through the spring, you want to sprinkle in some of those to say this is what I think people may try to do and then approach it that way. Do you agree with the following statement that the defense has to be better or will be really hard to duplicate what you did last year? Agreed. I think any time you want to go compete for a championship, all three, three phases, man. You've got to be on it. I love the way last year we covered kicks. I love the way that, you know, in the passing game, Joe and the guys had, you know, real resolve and how it was done.
Starting point is 00:34:07 But there are definitely areas that you're going to see improvement from the defense. And that's a really important part of it. So just like a turnover margin is to winning, that's the offense taking care of the ball. And it's also the defense creating takeaways. So those are just a few of the things for us to play our best, we'll need to be our entire team hitting the mark. So it sounds like you've got confidence that the defense will be improved in 2025. I do. I do. But like most of you, then you've got to go show it and demonstrate it. Tackling, creating takeaways, creating the havoc up front, those are the ways to play good defense. In this game where people are trying to create space, you better be a good tackling team.
Starting point is 00:34:54 because that eliminate a lot of the big plays. You know, and the second piece is, man, we've got to do a better job of creating takeaways. Forcing fumbles, that get recovered, the interceptions. If we do that part right, we'll definitely improve defensively. All right, two more, and I appreciate the time. You usually don't hear coaches talk about chasing down one team, but I'm curious as to how much of the off-season plan inside the building was about closing the gap on one.
Starting point is 00:35:24 team, that one team being the Eagles. Yeah, they had a fantastic team and a fantastic year. So during the regular season, we split the games with them, and the postseason, they absolutely got the best of us, kind of referring to what I was saying earlier about the margins of winning, for them to get takeaways and for us not to get any, you know, that was the deciding factor, you know, in the game where we didn't give ourselves our best shot. But at the end of it, man, like you also give credit to them. We don't spend our time, you know, looking at too many of the other opponents,
Starting point is 00:36:01 but we do look at ourselves really, really closely. What do we need to do? Where do we need to get better? And if we can dig in on those first, that's a big deal. But you start by looking like, you know, defensively, explosive plays, who attacked you, how to it happen. And the same thing offensively, you know, what were the most effective thing, how we feature the players in those roles
Starting point is 00:36:23 because, Dev, honestly, it's trying to put the players in the right spot. It's not just the playbook. It's the playbook and then featuring the players in their correct roles. Yeah, I've heard you emphasize that a lot since the day you arrived, that it's not just the player, the athlete, the competitor, but it's incumbent upon the coaches to put those players in the right spots. So I'll finish up with this. The expectations heading into this season, Dan, are by far the highest they have been in at least 25 years.
Starting point is 00:37:00 2000 was a year in which they were coming off a division title, a playoff win. It was that first, you know, Dan Snyder offseason fantasy football frenzy of signing Dion Sanders and Bruce Smith and Jeff George and Mark Carrier. And the expectations were super high. but they have not been anywhere near that. In fact, the opposite of that for the last quarter century until this upcoming season. The expectations are through the roof. The anticipation for this season is super high. Do you feel that?
Starting point is 00:37:37 And is there any extra? Do you feel it? And is there any added pressure because of it? I feel like, man, the intensity and the excitement for it, like, of course. And, you know, like, I would absolutely not want it any other way. Like, this is why we do it to go battle and compete for it. But we really do a good job, Kevin, of staying grounded, and staying present. We just don't look too far down the line.
Starting point is 00:38:04 We don't see that being an advantage for us. I would hope that when we talk, you and I in a few months, team then can really kick the hell out of the team that's here today. So that's what I look for to see how good we can get. Thanks for doing this, Dan. Really appreciate it. Best of luck this year. Yeah, you guys, man.
Starting point is 00:38:24 And good to be on with you and talk some ball. And look forward to our next one, man. The head coach, Dan Quinn, everybody. Good to have him on the show. If you haven't rated or reviewed the podcast, it's so easy to do and it helps us a lot. You can rate us up to five stars on Apple and Spotify. Apple also gives you a chance to write a quick one to two cents.
Starting point is 00:38:48 review. Also following the podcast, that's the plus or the follow button. Right hand side, upper part of the Apple podcast screen. And on Spotify, it's down the left hand side. That's a tremendous help for us as well. All right, I'll finish up the show with the first smell test pick of 2025, right after these words from a few of our sponsors. So guys, if you're like me and you've basically been buying and wearing this same type of underwear for years. In my case, boxer briefs, same brand, same type for a long time. Well, not anymore for me. I want to tell you about skims for men, something I've discovered recently, the softest underwear I've ever worn. I got a few pairs of the five-inch boxer briefs so comfortable, no matter what you're doing, from sitting in a chair
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Starting point is 00:42:11 That's S-Q-U-A-R-E-D-com slash geo-slash-H-E-E-H-A-N. Run your business smarter with Square. Get started today. Kevin looks where the John Q Public is putting their cash and does the opposite. It's time for the smell test. The smell test is brought to you by once again this year, MyBooky. Go to mybooky.orgie.orgie.com. my promo code, Kevin D.C, and MyBooky will give you a cash bonus on your initial deposit. My
Starting point is 00:42:51 Booky is old school. Fair numbers, fair pricing. You're not going to get overcharged on a straight bet loss. You're not going to be paying minus 120 or minus 125 or minus 135 like you see these days. MyBooky is fair across the board. You get paid when you win. The numbers are solid. MyBooky.com. promo code Kevin D.C. And again, on your initial deposit, they'll give you free cash into your account to bet with. All right, the smell test enters, believe it or not. It's 20th season. The first year I did it was with Rigo back in 2006 when I was doing a show with him. 14 winning seasons out of the 19, five losing seasons. Last year, 96, 89, and 8 on the season. So let's go for it again this year. Although I've had many people tell me over the last couple of years, man, everybody bets the way you bet.
Starting point is 00:43:55 It's no longer contrarian to bet as a contrarian. And that is the smell test philosophy. It's a contrarian handicapping philosophy. It's much more than just betting against the public or betting against all of your friends that always lose and are always on the wrong side. For years, as many of you know, I've had really good contacts, really good information with, let's just say, people who run sports books in much warmer climates somewhere out in the middle of the Caribbean. and it's really a realization in addition to that, that the house wins more than it loses, and it's not just because of the VIG.
Starting point is 00:44:38 It's not just because of the fees. And the information that I've been able to get access to over the years is the biggest needs for sports books, you know, in a given weekend or on a given day. Like they really need a side. They can't balance the books and just take, you know, the fee, the VIG, percentage as a way to win. So that's essentially it. Let's get started. I actually just between the
Starting point is 00:45:06 beginning of this show and right now, I added a game to the smell test. And it is one of the first games of the night tonight. Seven o'clock kick down in Raleigh, NC State is a 14-point favorite at home against East Carolina. These two teams played in the Military Bowl back at the end of December. The game ended in a brawl between both teams. East Carolina won the game 2621. NC State has one of the most exciting quarterbacks in the country. By the way, Dave Dorn is an excellent coach, but C.J. Bailey back for his sophomore season, and he had an excellent freshman year. I think there's a little bit of payback here, not to mention the fact that based on the last result, the public loves the underdog in this game, which is rare.
Starting point is 00:46:02 But 14 points, they're taking the points overwhelmingly. I'll take NC State and lay the 14. A little bit later on, Cincinnati catching six and a half against Nebraska. There's a lot of Cornhusker optimism out there. They made a bowl game last year. They've got Dylan Rayola back. You know, huge five-star talent up and down season last year. Cincinnati Scott Satterfield is on the hot seat.
Starting point is 00:46:30 They are very good defensively, Cincinnati is. What concerns me or did concern me a little bit about this game is the total's at 52, and I kind of see a low-scoring game, which indicates that the books are not afraid to take underaction. I'm not giving out the over in this game. I'm giving out Cincinnati plus. the points and I'll buy the half point and get it to seven, but this is an overwhelming public play, the biggest public play of the night. Nebraska laying less than a touchdown to Cincinnati,
Starting point is 00:47:02 I will take the dog. So NC State minus 14 and Cincinnati plus seven buying the half point. They're your first two plays of 2025. I will have more for the weekend on tomorrow's show. All right, that is it for the day. I will be back tomorrow with a podcast out late afternoon.

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