The Kevin Sheehan Show - Dominating Defense Ruling NFL in '25

Episode Date: November 22, 2025

Kevin opened with Houston's dominating defensive win last night over Buffalo which led to a discussion about just how far away the Commanders are from being even a good defensive football team. Washington is set to play another International game in 2026 per Nicki Jhabvala/The Athletic. Kevin talked about where and who they might play. Jay Gruden jumped on to discuss whether or not he thought the defense played differently with Dan Quinn calling it vs Joe Whitt Jr. and then gave out his "NFL Lock of the Week" which has cashed 5 out of the last 6 weeks. Kevin finished up the show with 10 "Smell Test" picks. He is a sizzling 81-47-9 ATS on the season. For all your football betting needs: DCRELOAD at MyBookie for a 50% Deposit Match Want to spruce up your lawn? FastGrowingTrees.com Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it, you don't need it, but you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Sheehan Show, here's Kevin. Jay Bruton will join me on the show today as he does every Friday during football season. Jay, by the way, five of his last six NFL lock of the week picks on this podcast have come home as winners. He's on fire. The smell test has been on a bit of a season. season-long heater as well. I've got 10 picks in the final segment of the show. Six for tomorrow, four for Sunday. Window Nation is the presenting sponsor of this show. 86690 Nation

window nation. Windonation.com if you need new windows. How about Alex Ovechkin last night? His 33rd career hat trick. It came in Montreal. The caps won the game 8 to 4. Ovi moves up to 10th overall on the points list now. And of course, he added to his number one position as the all-time goal score in NHL history as well. I had Joe Beninati on the radio show today. So if you're interested in Ovi and Caps talk, you can listen to it at the team 980.com. When you get there, hit the podcast tab, then hit my show, the Kevin Sheehan show, and then click on hour one. Joe joined me 20 minutes into the show today. Joe B, for me, as a guest,

one of my absolute favorites. I know I've said this before about hockey guests in general. They're all really good, and maybe that's because I don't know anything about hockey. But Joe Beninati's always great, and he was really good talking about not only OV but the team and the landscape of the Eastern Conference, 20 or so games into the season.

So again, if you want to listen to some hockey talk, the team 980.com, hit the podcast tab, my show, and then click on Hour 1, which is where Joe was. So, I don't know about you guys, but there are times when I watch a sporting event, a game, and I'm so blown away impressed with something that I'll get carried away and make a proclamation. on this spot. I almost did it on Twitter last night. I decided not to. I decided to save it for today. You know, you're blown away by a team, by a player, and you immediately buy in. And you buy in big. And that happened for me last night. The number one takeaway I had watching the Houston Texans beat the Buffalo Bills 23 to 19 on Thursday night football. The number one takeaway, and I'm being serious, was and is, the Houston Texans can win the Super Bowl.

I mean, that was one of the most dominating performances with just otherworldly individual performances by their two edge rushers. This was as dominant as it gets in the sport defensively. And let me just remind you what the bills were coming into the game last night. They were the number two offense in total yards produced, the traditional number. They were number three in DVOA on offense. They were fourth in the league on third down offense, fourth in the league in scoring points per game. They were coming off a 44 to 32 win over Tampa Bay. Last night, the bills were held to 12 points on offense. They got the other seven

on a kickoff return for a touchdown. They were two for 12 on third down. And then this. The Texans sacked Josh Allen eight times, hit him 12 times, intercepted him twice as a team the Texans had 12 total TFLs, tackles for loss,

and they forced a fumble while they were at it. Their edge rushers completely wrecked Buffalo's offense. Will Anderson Jr. had two and a half of the team's eight sacks. Daniel Hunter had two of the eight himself. The other three and a half were essentially other guys benefiting from the domination, the dominant pressure that Anderson and Hunter put on all night long. Miles Garrett is unquestionably the best and most dominating defensive player in the NFL today. And he's going to go down, honestly, no matter what team he played for and how bad these Cleveland teams have been, Miles Garrett's going to go down as one of the all-time

greats when he is done. You know, we've had two incredible all-time greats in the last 10 years. Miles Garrett, Aaron Donald. They're going to go down top five, top 10 worst case, all-time greatest defensive players. But right now, number two, in the NFL behind Miles Garrett is Will Anderson, Jr. Houston's edge rusher. He is the second best defensive player in the league right now. And the Texans who have been outstanding all season long on defense are getting better as the season is marching forward.

They weren't even super healthy in their secondary last night, but it didn't matter. They've won three straight games with day. Mills at quarterback. C.J. Stroud got knocked out in their only loss in their last five games and 18 to 15 loss at home to Denver, they had the lead when Stroud got knocked out. But they've had some impressive wins over San Francisco. They dominated them four or five weeks ago, and then they dominated Buffalo last night. Now, I've been talking here and there about Houston being better than their record has indicated.

So maybe for me this is more hope than it is genuine belief that it can happen, but I think it's genuine belief. In a season where great offense has somewhat been overshadowed by great defense, Houston is at or near the top of the great defensive NFL teams this year. And let me just add something because I think sometimes, you know, I got, I sat there last night jaw dropping every few minutes with the defensive plays that they were making against Josh Allen. But I will, you know, concede this. Thursday night games can be misleading. They can be.

The turnaround is short. You know, Buffalo was in this knockdown, dragout shootout with Tampa last week. They were the road team. Thursday night games are not always the best measure of a team. That's been true for many years now. But look, going back to the early part of the season, Houston has been a very good defensive team. I've mentioned it a lot. You know, if you go back to early in the season, their opener against the Rams,

their week two lost to Tampa. The game they had against the 49ers a few weeks ago, they had no chance offensively against Houston's. defense and their pass rushers in tandem, Anderson and Hunter, that's the best tandem in football right there. They're a six and five football team. The Colts have the chiefs at Arrowhead on Sunday. If they lose that game, their lead is down to two games over Houston. They may only have a one game lead at that point over Jacksonville. But Houston gets Indy twice. They have not yet played either of their two matchups against the Colts. So I think there's a chance Houston

could get back into this division race and potentially even win it. Now, C.J. Stroud returning is a huge key to any sort of, you know, legitimate run to the postseason. And then when they get there, he's expected back next week in the first of the two matchups with the Colts. So the Colts and Texans play for the first time a week from Sunday. Look, I'm just saying that if Houston gets in, especially if they can get in as a division winner, they're going to be very difficult to deal with. And again, the weird thing about this season, think about it, in a league where offense rules, name the team right now that is scary good on offense.

I can name five, six, seven teams that are scary good on defense right now. Houston, Denver, Philly, Seattle, the Rams, the Packers, Cleveland, of course, but they're just so horrible on defense. Cleveland's defense is sick. But this year on offense, like who's legit unstoppable? There really isn't a team. The Lions were the unstoppable team last year, but they're not what they were last year offensively. Baltimore was really good offensively last year.

Cincinnati was really good. Washington was really good and at times unstoppable on offense. Last year, I looked this up a little while ago. Three teams last year averaged 30 or more a game and 400 yards or more a game. This year, no teams are averaging 400 or more yards a game, and just one team, the Colts, are averaging 30 or more points per game. The Colts are the closest thing to explosive and unstoppable. I know Detroit has played a few games that way.

Seattle's played a few games that way, but the Colts have been more consistently unstoppable, but do you trust Daniel Jones? When it matters the most, his last two games, he's got, what, five or six turnovers? You know, it started with Philadelphia's defense last year, especially in the second half of the season. And, of course, the Super Bowl, which was one of the most dominating defensive beatdowns we've seen ever in a Super Bowl game. But it's continued this year defensively. The Houston Texans, man, I'm calling it right now.

I may look stupid in a few weeks, especially if Stroud doesn't come back. Their offensive line is not great, and you're not going to obviously make a deep run with Davis Mills, and he's played okay, but if you watch last night, like he started one for nine, I think, and of the eight incompletions, like four of them weren't even close, but they are an extremely capable deep into the playoff team led by its ferocious. defense. That team I watched last night, it looked like the Eagles defense down the stretch and throughout the postseason last year. Now, Philadelphia had Sequin Barclay and the year he was having on offense. Houston can run the football a little bit. Woody Marks looks good. It looks like Mixon may not come back this year. That's a big loss. They have a big strapping, you know, number one receiver in Nico Collins. They need Stroud back though. They have to get crowd back. But that defense, man, it's going to give them a chance here to come back and win

the division. And I'd say for them to truly make a Super Bowl run, they've got to win the division. You really, Washington went from, you know, six seed to championship game. It's happened. But more times than not, you got to play at least one game at home. But yeah, Last night was also, by the way, a reminder of how far our team is from being, you know, a complete team. I mean, we don't have anybody that resembles seven or eight, maybe even nine of their defensive starters, of Houston's defensive starters. You know, the more I think about the conversations to come, and I started that conversation on the show on Wednesday, kind of gave you a quick outline. of like the priorities with their own players, not looking ahead to who they should draft or who they should sign in free agency, but more or less just, you know, sketching out, you know,

who do they keep or who do they try to keep of their unrestricted free agents? You know, we talked about this the other day. I'll give you the list real quickly. Mariotta, Chris Paul, Jacob Martin, McNichols, Rodriguez, Tressway. And I think Debo are players that are unrestricted free agents that they should. should really think about keeping. I think you've got to keep Marioota. You got to keep Paul.

I think you absolutely have to resign Jacob Martin. I think Debo is one of those guys that will be debated, and that's fine. I think they should try to re-sign Debo, not at any price. And if the price gets too expensive, you pass. You've got to extend Tunsel, for sure. That's a given. I think you should extend Louvo rather than letting him play out his current three-year deal. I think Wagner, Ertz, Echler, Noah Brown, Wiley are all guys that'll probably be let go.

You know, certainly Latimore. You know, Latimore of the guys that are under contract, you're cutting Latimore to save 18 and a half, $19 million. You're cutting Allegretti to save $7 to $8 million. And then Payne's going to be a very interesting topic. And I said, you know, $28 million cap hit for next year. year, I don't think they're going to want it. I think he goes by the wayside like John Allen did because they can save big time with him. Look, they've got a lot of cap space, but they can create even more. So anyway, like, that's what I talked about on the show the other day. There will be plenty of time to discuss the players in free agency draft as well. But the more I think about

like these conversations about the offseason that are forthcoming. It's got to start with defense, defense, defense. They need another receiver. They need more speed on offense for sure. But God, do they need a major infusion of defensive talent? They just need it badly. They are way under talented. on defense. And obviously this year, we didn't even get to see their most talented players

play the majority of the season, whether it was Dorrance Armstrong or Dietrich Wise or Will Harris, et cetera. And now, you know, Amos for the last half of the season. They're going to need a defensive coordinator too. You know, if I haven't mentioned this, I do have kind of a short list of defensive coordinator names. You've probably seen a lot of these out there, but they do make sense. Like here are some names that make sense because they have ties to Dan Quinn.

So if Rahim Morris, the head coach in Atlanta, doesn't make it. And I have a feeling there's a good chance he could get boomed at the end of this season. Rahim Morris was Quinn's guy in Atlanta. Rahim would make a ton of sense as the defensive coordinator here if Atlanta fires him.

Jeff Ulbrick, who is currently Rahim Morris's defensive coordinator in Atlanta, also worked with Quinn in Atlanta. He makes sense. Al Harris, currently in Chicago, as their DB's coach and defensive pass game coordinator. He was with Quinn in Dallas. So Rahim Morris, Jeff Ulbric, Al Harris are guys that are going to be names that will be mentioned if they're available, especially. in the event that Atlanta staff gets boomed,

and Al Harris is not currently the defensive coordinator in Chicago. Dennis Allen is. So Al Harris, because he's worked with Quinn, could get a bump up to defensive coordinator. Those are three names you're going to hear that are, you know, names tied to Dan Quinn. Now, Dan Quinn did not have any ties to Cliff Kingsbury when he hired Kingsbury. You know, there's always this feeling that guys are going to look for guys that they know,

and Quinn hired a lot of guys that he knew and a lot of guys that he did not know. So it's possible he goes outside of, you know, a familiar name. You know, Jim Schwartz in Cleveland, if Stefansky and that coaching staff gets run at the end of this year, I mean, Schwartz would be a very interesting hire.

Jonathan Gannon, if he gets fired in Arizona, would be an interesting, you know, current head coach who may be, looking next year at not being a head coach, but being a defensive coordinator as he was in Philadelphia before getting the Arizona job. And then obviously there are talented coaches everywhere. And some of those great defensive teams that I've mentioned, you know, like right now, there's a name out there, Jeff Howard, who is the DBs slash safeties coach in Seattle for Mike McDonald. A lot of people think he is super talented and will get an opportunity.

to be a defensive coordinator. So, you know, those kinds of guys working on those staffs are also going to be in play. But there's no doubt at this point that Joe Witt Jr. is gone, even though he's on the staff, he's not going to be the team's defensive coordinator. And replacing him as a priority. And then getting, you know, at the very least, three to four new frontline players through free agency in the draft. Like you need at least one pass rush or you need at least one additional lineback or another safety, maybe another corner. But man, watching last night, you just realize, holy God, our defense is so god awful and is so far away from some of these incredible defensive teams in the NFL, including one of them in our own division.

Do I think, by the way, that a healthy offense next year, you know, Jaden's healthy, everybody's healthy, they add some speed at wide receiver or maybe even at running back. Do I think it can get back to where it was last year? I do. I do think that the offense is not that far away. It's health this year that hurt it more than anything else. And I also think that despite what we've seen in terms of the resurgent defenses this

year in the league, there's plenty. plenty of room for a great, you know, offensive team to win 10, 11, 12 games and be in the playoffs with a less than stellar defense. We're going to see that, you know, this year as well. You know, if a Chicago makes the postseason as an example, and I don't know that they're going to, it's funny, you look at the standings and you're like, man, I mean, the playoff teams this year, like Denver, you know, in the AFC. let's say Houston makes it somehow, Kansas City, you know, the Chargers, New England's got a very good rush defense, you know, the Colts are okay defensively. Like in the NFC, the Eagles, the Rams,

the Seahawks, the Packers, the 49ers, even with their injuries, man, they're going to be some 14-13 playoff games this year, maybe. But I still think the NFL, you know, defense is the most variable of the two. You know, there's just so much variance year to year. And we're hitting a year this year where there are a lot of great defenses. There are also a lot of bad defenses. Cincinnati's defense, I had Aaron Shatz on the radio show today. He's the creator of the DVOA metric that we reference all the time.

Aaron said that Cincinnati's defense this year is the worst of all time in their measurement through their DVOA metric. The worst ever, and he said there's not a close second. And he said, look, there are other bad defenses. Dallas has been bad. Washington's been bad. But that Cincinnati is an all-time bad defense. But, you know, can you still make the playoffs with a bad defense?

Yeah, in today's NFL, you can still win a lot of regular season games with great offense. We saw it last year with our team, no doubt. Oh, I have one other thing that I wanted to get to here in the open before we get to Jay Gruden. Nikki Javala, who now writes for the athletic, Nikki reported earlier today that Washington is going to play another international game next year. So that'll be consecutive seasons playing an international game.

They just got back from Madrid. TBD on where they'll play next year and who they'll play, that'll all get announced probably sometime between January and March. Typically, we find out at least where the teams that have been designated as international game participants, the city in which they'll be playing, which by the way is pretty interesting next year. So the league is committed next year as part of a most. multi-year deal to play in Melbourne, Australia. However, the Rams are going to be the designated

home team in Melbourne. That's already been determined. But it also will play next year in Rio. So another year in Brazil, by the way, this over the next five years in Brazil, and they have committed to returning to Mexico City next year for the first time since 20. 2022. There will be games, of course, in London as well. And maybe Berlin, I don't know about Madrid. I would expect Washington not to be the Madrid or the Spain game if there is a game in Barcelona or Madrid next year. But Washington is going to be the home team for an international game next year. This year, they were the road team against Miami. The NFC next year has nine home games, eight road games. So Washington will only end up with eight true home games.

There will be plenty of NFC teams that will play nine true home games next year. So Washington will be at a disadvantage, but there will be other NFC teams that will play international games and they will take one of their home games to do it. Now, if you don't know this about the schedule, and of course I do, because the schedule is something I obsess about every year. But, you know, basically all of their opponents for 2026 through 2028 have been determined except for three. So of the 17 games next year, 14 have already been determined and home and away have already been determined for 14 of those 17 games. It's just three games every year that are determined by where you finish in the standings.

Like for next year, in addition to Dallas, Philly, and the Giants home in a way, Washington will play the Rams, Seattle, Houston, Indianapolis, and then the NFC South and the AFC North counterpart, meaning the team that finishes in those divisions in the same spot, Washington finishes in at the end of this year. That can't be determined yet. Right now, Washington's in third in the NFC East. There is a chance they could end up in dead last.

I guess there's still a chance they could end up in second. So they would play, you know, like if the season ended today, they would play Atlanta at home and they would play Cincinnati at home in addition to the Rams, Seattle, Houston, and Indy. The NFC East next year plays the NFC West, the AFC South. They play games, six of them, against each other. And then there are three games that are determined based on where you finish in the standing. So if they're going to take a home game and play it internationally next year,

it's going to be against Dallas, the Giants, or Philly. And typically we don't see, right? We don't really see divisional matchups. typically in the international games. So more likely than not, it would be against, maybe not the Rams, since the Rams are already scheduled to play in Melbourne. It would be against Seattle, Houston, Indianapolis, or the NFC South team like in Atlanta or the AFC North team like a Cincinnati,

if they finish in the same spot as Washington finishes in the NFC East. So there you go. early schedule talk but back to back years internationally and yeah they could play in Brazil they could play in Mexico City or they could play in I'm guessing London but that has not yet been determined but typically you'll get the news in terms of where they'll play city-wise not necessarily their opponent you know towards the end of you know the first few weeks I you know, of the off-season. Typically, that information is provided.

All right, there you go. Some early schedule talk. I will at least have, you know, the international game and the opponent penciled in. Although the opponent won't be determined either until schedule release, right? We didn't know about Miami or did we? Did we know they were playing Miami before the schedule came out? I think we did. Yeah, we did.

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And they've got a 96% satisfaction rating. 86690 Nation, windownation.com. joining me right now, as he always does on Fridays during football season, the former head coach of the Washington Redskins, Jay Gruden. Jay is on absolute fire with his lock of the week on this podcast. He has hit on five of his last six. Jay, I got this from Patrick. Patrick writes, Kevin, I'm the Patrick who gambled with you at the win over the summer. I think I do remember you, Patrick.

You should know better. You and Jay should stop giving out picks for free. If I have this right, the two of you together are around 68% on the season. That's an obscene winning percentage. With all that said, I'm fading both of you starting this week, L.O.L. Yeah, that may not be a bad idea. I don't think we can continue on this role. But there's no way, Patrick, 68% for the two of us is right.

I'm at 63.3% on the season. With Jay's one pick away, Jay would be half, he'd have to be hitting at like 75% for us to be, you know, at 68% or something outrageous. And while he is on fire, I don't think for the season, he's in the 70s. But do you, how do you feel about this week's pick? Because, you actually, the last couple of weeks have picked against Washington, you had the Lions, laying the points. You had Miami laying two and a half and got the win. And you felt kind of queasy about, you know, playing against Washington. And I told you, don't worry about it. You know, if that's the pick, that's the pick. So do you feel good about this week? Well, I start out

terrible this year. I think it'll start out like one and four. I don't think it was one and four. I think it was one and three before you started to hit some. I think it was. I got a good one this week. I got a good one this week. Okay. Well, we're going to save it for the end. But, yeah, Jay's been killing it the last six weeks. I mean, five out of the last six is not bad. Real quickly, on bye weeks or during buy weeks, what did you do?

Well, you have to, it's mandatory to give the players like three or four days off. I can't remember the exact day. So that's easy. So those guys get all the time off, and then the coaches will come in. I'll give them a couple days off and then come back. We do our whole self-scouting and then get ready for the rest of the year and start breaking down the teams we're getting ready to play. And then make sure we have a good plan moving forward about who we want to look at and make sure who we have plan. If we're still involved in the playoff hunt, obviously, then we're going to go full tilt.

But if not, then it's a matter of what practice squad guy, we're going to try to get activated and how we're going to handle the rest of the season for small what. Did you, I mean, when you say self-scout, we hear that all the time. as fans. What's involved in a self-scout? Offensively, it's formation personnel-wise. Just make sure you're not giving off any tails. Like the back's off set here. It's always a runner under center. We're 92% runner. You know what I mean?

So just make sure the, you know, because the defenses are looking at the same thing. So you've got to make sure you're protected yourself against the obvious percentages that you're given the defense. You know, run, run, run, pass, pat. You know, so just make sure you protect yourself. Yeah, so when you go and you self-scout, do you typically find things that are absolute tells that, you know, you've kind of given away? Sometimes you do.

You're kind of aware of them as you're calling plays, but you don't realize how lob sighted it is until you actually do the numbers. Right. But you kind of have a good feeling about it. Like, I swear, under center every time this week we ran the damn ball. We didn't do one place. You know, that's usually not the case. something to that extreme you never know you know tendencies i kind of feel like we didn't start to hear about these until like 15 years ago in football you know and maybe it was because the increase in

formations the increase in motions etc but tendencies how long as a coach has that always been a part of it to study the opponent's tendencies and to try to figure out based on what they typically do on second in seven from this formation, what's coming? Yeah, you're always trying to get a tip. One way there, whether it's defensively. And, you know, after a made first down, they like the blitz. You know, or something like that, there's always something that you try and to figure out just to give yourself an edge.

Sometimes it doesn't come true, but, you know, it's always good to know that, you know, hell, you know, if I get the first down in 10 at the 10-yard line going in this bomb gun is going to all-out blitzby, he's like 98%. So now he's getting a max protection and nice little rubber out and score touchdown and high-five long as your day. So yeah, you always looking for that edge and, you know, they're hard to find, but when you do find one and you convert on something like that, it's

always gratifying because you did your work. But am I right or wrong, that it's more of a, let's just call it this century of football study point for coaches? Or has that always been a part of the game?

It's always, I think it's, well, this century I wouldn't know any further back. I don't think they have to film available on back. Last 10, 15 years. Yeah, once people got their film, and it's so easy to access the film, and it's so much easier now to cut up a, in sort however you want it, red zone, first down, formation, three by one, two by two, you can get one button, and they're all right there, and you go, holy cow, we, you know, we're in two by two, we're 92% pass.

That's unbelievable. We better run it in two by two. You know, so, yeah, it's kind of crazy, how easy it is to get the information. Yeah, the technology, you know, certainly make. It makes it easier and makes it make more sense in terms of how much it's done. You know, when you said, you know, sometimes you, you know, get to the line of scrimmage and you hear the defense, run, run, run, or pass, pass, pass. And it's based on a tendency or a formation.

How much of the success of that play, when the defense does know what's coming, can you still succeed? Oh, yeah. Do you still succeed? I mean, hell, we had a four-minute drill against Chicago one year. I think we ran power five times in a row. I knew it was coming. They couldn't stop it. So hat on a hat, double teams,

win the line of scrimmage, and good things will happen. Your back has good vision. Makes a cut, six foot in the ground, and good things will happen. But now you have to be aware, speaking of tendencies,

you have to be aware of what you call it the line of scrimmage communication-wise because the other team gets the microphone in the tape of the center. So they're listening to, hey, wringo, wringo, wringo. That means pass. It's a path.

You have to change your words up in your center to pain in the ass. You run out of words. So, yeah, they know a runner pass based on what the center says at the line of scrimmage now. You know, football's, I think, for, I think most of us know this who are fans, it's a lot harder and it's a lot more complicated than I think most people think. Like, you can't be a dummy and play quarterback or center, right? Hell no, no. I mean, you can get away with a dummy of quarterback if you're just going to run zone reads and quarterback powers and all that stuff.

That's pretty easy, but if you want to communicate protections and change plays at the line of scrimmage and, you know, go from run to pass or run to run one side to another, you've got to be smart. And center especially, I mean, he's got to change calls. I mean, these guys are blip from all over the place. You saw Shador Sanders' first game as a starting quarterback what Kyle Hamilton did. He's all over the joint just because picket his place, boom, right in between the guard, off the edge. So, yeah, you've got to be smart. What are the positions on the field?

Maybe I just name the top two, maybe middle linebackers the third, but I'll let you kind of list them in terms of necessary to be high intellect. I think tight ends up there. I really do. I think you get away to skip a tight end every now. But you've got to be smart because you're involved in the running game. And the running game communication is pretty hard too, whether you're blocking the defensive end,

you're clipping the end going up to the linebacker, maybe you're insert or going back side, and then you're involved in the passing game with all the formations and all the routes combinations. So I think tight end is really a high priority for me. I actually think running back is pretty high too because of pass protection, a third down back, maybe first down,

hey, we're on an outside zone, go ahead, go running on the people over. But you had to be pretty smart at all the position. Even wider seever. He can't be an idiot to say wider seever. He got no formation, splits, route depths, detail, all that stuff. So fortunately, we had really smart guys when we were good. DeShan was really smart. He tried to be, act like he wasn't smart, but he's one of the smartest guys on the team.

And Pierre was smart. You know, so we were fortunate. James Crowder was really, really smart. And it's important. And so was Ryan Grant, all you people who are going to say something. Ryan Grant was really smart. That's why I like them. Yeah, he was really good at digging out safeties.

That was your favorite line. Yeah, we got Ryan in there to dig out the safeties. By the way, speaking of tendencies, it had to be like 85 to 90% of the time Ryan Grant was in the game you were running the football. Probably right. That's why the play actions works so good off of, Kevin. That's why he had to reward them every now and then by pulling it out, let them run a deep cross or something like that. It was interesting what you said about running back,

because I've heard over the years that the easiest position for a young player to come in and make an immediate impact is at running back. Yeah, I think first second down, probably you're right. It's not that hard. But when you get the third down, you're starting involved in the pass protection and the route tree and, you know, formations where you're split outside, you're coming back in or whatever. It can get a little bit more dicey.

You've got to be a little bit more smarter. That's why I love Chris so much because he's really smarter. We line him up out and empty and three spot to two spot, the one spot, motion them back in. He blocked, you know, slide back. He did a lot of great things for us. First downback, not so much. Hey, run power, duo, outside zone, and then every once in a while we do a plaction pass, you got the safety on either side, up there.

So, yeah, you're right. Running back is easy, first, second bound. I read a story, actually, last night. It's the story of how Baker Mayfield, basically, in 2022, got cut by the Panthers, and 48 hours later, he was leading the Rams to a victory over the Raiders on Thursday night football, and it totally resurrected his career. It's actually a really good read.

Liam Cohen, Sean McVeigh, all the key people, Zach Robinson, all talking about how they got Baker, Mayfield ready for that game. I mean, without that game, a lot of people that night said, without that game, Baker's probably, you know, not where he is today. Liam Cohen, a lot of those guys may not be where they are today. I mean, just the challenge of a guy coming in on a Tuesday night, like he got in late

Tuesday night, the games on Thursday night, to get him ready to play. I don't think it's as bad as you think, really, for a veteran guy. guy. Okay. They've gone through, they've been through a system, and I know what kind of route concepts they like in the running game and the play actions are pretty easy for a veteran guy. They were running fake 17-1 and make it right. I mean, it's easy.

We have a low cross. We got a down flat. We got a corner or whatever it might be. So I think you can simplify it. Hell, we have Sanchez coming and play. He wasn't very good, but he came in on a Thursday played Sunday or something. And then Josh Johnson did the same thing. You get them ready.

You get them a list of 25 plays they're very familiar with. you know, drag flat or a hook, you know, corner, whatever it might be, dagger. Everybody knows a dagger combination of veteran quarterback. So I don't think of hard as you think it is. Just some of the words might be different. They have to learn the words. That's your job. You've got to learn the words.

It's like learning new language in two days. Yeah, Sanchez, Josh Johnson that year. That, for that game, yeah, because you guys played the, you know, Colt got hurt in the Philadelphia Monday night game. you know, after the Thanksgiving Day game. He got hurt in that Monday night game against the Eagles, right? I'm pretty sure that was the game he got hurt in. And then the backup that night was Sanchez?

Yep. Yeah. And he wasn't very good. I thought we played Thursday against Philadelphia. I thought it was a third great night game. And I could be right. I knew it was a night game. You played Thanksgiving.

You may have played Thursday. I'll look it up. But you played Thanksgiving after losing Alex. I just know I took the headphones off and gave them to Kevin O'Connell when Sanchez came in the game and said you call plays and the first play called it was 12 duo for a 90-yard touchdown I said damn you're good at right Adrian Peterson right Adrian Peterson 90 yards yeah I'm looking it up right now so it was a Monday night game

so you played on Thanksgiving loss to the Cowboys that was you know four days after the Alex Smith injury you know I know I've asked you this before I'm pretty sure I've asked you before Did you guys know how sick Alex Smith was and how dangerous it became after the operation? No, I did not until, we got word, but I didn't, I didn't really have, I just thought he broke his leg, really. I didn't know he's having all the complications with the infections and all that stuff until a few days later. Then we went and saw him, and then we realized how severe it was.

I almost lost his life and almost lost his leg. Yeah. It was scary. Yeah, it was a tough time for him and his family, and yeah, it was, that's crazy. You just get hurt in football next thing you know you might be dying because of the infection from the turf. Yeah, awful, awful. Sanchez, by the way, came in. Colt was four for four for 50 yards when he left the game.

I know, I was so excited for him to finally get a chance and they break the damn leg again. Yeah, Sanchez came in. He was 13 of 21 for 100 yards, got sacked twice through a pick, and you got. ended up losing that game, 28 to 13, and then, you know, the rest of it, although I've told you this before, I honestly believe, and I remember coming on the air the following, you know, Mondays, you know, after the Jacksonville game and then the Tennessee game, which was a Saturday actually late in the season. And I just said, I thought that was one of the best coaching jobs in both of those games you ever did. Like you got more out of less in that. You got more out of less

in those two games, and almost with Josh Johnson, beat Tennessee, which would have given you a chance to make the playoffs on the final weekend of the season against Philadelphia. He worked the wrong side on the empty formation playing through a pick. I mean, my God, the other other thing, if you worked the other side, we had Jeremy sprinkle wide open for like a 25-year game. Josh, just kidding. I love Josh. Josh is a good guy, but he did work the wrong side of that play. You know, everybody that's followed this team, you know, including a lot of the guys on the beat like John Kime and others.

They've said that this year is by far in a way the worst injury season they have ever, ever seen covering this team. And it is, you know, by the numbers and everything else. But the last one that we all kind of reference is that season, that 20, you know, that 20, the 2017 and really 2018 seasons, both of them. The 2017 season, you lost your offensive line, basically. And then you lost Chris Thompson. 2018, you just kept, you know, losing quarterbacks over and over again.

Do you remember, do you, we've probably talked about this, but do you agree with me that those two games beating Jacksonville and nearly beating Tennessee to keep your team in playoff contention with what you were working with was a lot, that coaching was a lot of that, those results or not? Yeah, oh yeah, yeah, yeah. It's not easy to coach a team when, You have so many new faces, especially at the quarterback position.

When he's only been there for a week or two, you're teaching two-minute drill and the snap count and all that stuff before he play a game. That's never a good thing. So trying to keep the game close and making good decisions and keeping the quarterback comfortable and the communication between you and the quarterback as a play caller. You can't just call play. This is a great play, but if the quarterback's not comfortable if it doesn't know it, you can't call the damn thing. So I think just keeping Josh and those guys comfortable with what they saw. And then Josh had some good games. He's a good runner, scrambler, and all that stuff.

He made some great plays with his leg. Well, you've said before that he's one of the smartest. Yeah, you've told me before he's one of the smartest guys that ever played for you. Yeah, he's very, very smart. But I don't see how they have, they've had more injuries this year than I had my last year or two there. Yeah, I think in terms of. We have like 35 different line combinations in one year. I think it's, yeah, no, the 2017 offensive line situation was an absolute mess.

Was an absolute mess. But I think in, I think in terms of, number of players and man games lost, this is by far and away the worst. And I think we talked about this a few weeks ago. It's always the worst. You said this, and I think Quinn said this too, when you get hit severely at like one position group, like they did at defensive end and also, by the way, at wide receiver. To have... 100%. Yeah. And that's really right where their season has kind of fallen apart. Yeah, we had the

offensive line issues, everybody on the offensive line kept getting hurt. Yeah, it's tough, and they're receiving core husband just beat the hell. I mean, you lose Noah and Perry and Evo missed some time, and yeah, it's tough. What did you see last week against the dolphins in Madrid?

Did you see a difference from Dan Quinn calling plays versus Joe Witt Jr? I think not so much schematically. I just think effort-wise, I think, for whatever reason, they played a lot hard. They had success early, that matters. You know, it's not like they were down 14-0.

I think they played hard. They played well early, and the leadership of Bobby Wagner showed up, and they had some success. And, you know, they contain A-Champ pretty good. I thought he would have a much bigger game, especially on the perimeter. But for the most part, they eliminated the big play, and Jalen Waddle, and they did a good job,

and they flew the ball, and they tackled well. So I don't know if it was because they played more cover two or cover three because of the play calls, I think just the players played harder and they tackled well. What did you think of some of the decisions like Mike McDaniel going for the fourth and goal in a 13-13 game

with a minute 44 to go? No sense. I just don't understand it anymore. You guys, I'm never going to get back into coaching because I'll never succumb to this analytic bullshit that they're putting on people. Kick the field goal, go up three. I mean, have Marcus Marriota and they haven't done anything

on offense, really. I mean, you've got to be kidding. me. I thought Washington to kick the field goal two to go up by three. I don't know what the hell's going on anymore. It's so true. It's like everybody's, it's like the people are allergic to field goals and like everybody wants to prove they're smarter than the next group by going for every single fourth down. You know, Dan Campbell on Sunday night against the Eagles, down 10 on 4th and 17 had his offense out there until the Eagles called time out, and somebody got in his ear and said, you might want to kick the field

goal here. We're down 10, and it's fourth and 17. I don't, I don't, that one he did a fake punt against base defense. I mean, you've got to be kidding me. He tried to run it right up the middle on a fake punt. Yeah. And

they left their base defense out there. You can ever do. They left their defense alignment around the field. I mean, unbelievable. But yeah, I don't understand it. I really agree with some of the go for it here and there, but when you're up by three, or a tie game, and you go up by three, with three or four

minutes to go to the game, don't you take that? Well, yeah, I mean, that was Washington situation with McDaniel. It was a minute 44 left. To me, it's all about, like, give me all the information you want, but you know, you got to live in the moment. You got to have, there's context.

They had literally been stuffed on three straight plays and they had been stopped the last time. So Washington was clearly feeling it defensively in their goal line, you know, defense, and it just seemed to me like, like you said, like they had scored one touchdown in the game. Worst cases, maybe they get in field goal range. You're not going to lose in regulation if you kick the field goal. I guess. Yeah. I don't know how, I don't know people really realize how hard it is to come up with a play on fourth and three to three. Right. It's a tough location on

the field. The defense is all right there. The safeties are all up. It was at the one, it was at the one yard line. The one just outside the one. Yeah. Yeah, but it's not that easy. Sometimes taking a three-point lead. It's a good thing, Kevin.

It's a good thing. Yeah, I think so. Look, I understand some of it, Jay, because, you know, especially with the new kickoff rules, like, you know, sometimes if you start at the 30, 35-yard line, you're only a couple of completions away from field goal range and starting at your own one in a tie game. I understand all that, but the odds of them making it,

it seemed like in the moment, especially after Kinlaw blew up the third and goal and hurt A-chan. It just seemed to me like you've got to kick it there. All right. They'll come back after the by week. Jaden's health right now is, you know, he's going to be okay and he's going to be cleared at some point. and there's going to be a conversation.

There's already a conversation right now about should he play or shouldn't he play. If he's cleared 100%, and let's just say there are four or five games left in the season, do you think he should play? I do. I made this point earlier. I do.

I think he needs to play. I mean, Joe Burroughs are going to come out and play. You've got to hurt turf toe. I don't think he treat this guy like a piece of glass. You've got to let him play. That's what he gets paid to do. He's got to get better. and the team has to rally around them

and Bobby Wagner is going to play. He's going to play. Well, Bobby Wagner plays, and I think Jayden should play. That's just the way I feel about it. I think Jayden would want to play and compete and win the last three or four games and put the league on those and say,

hell, this is a hell of the football team when our quarterback plays. I don't want to treat this guy like a China doll. He's got to go out there and play and take some hits and prove that he can do it. Because I'm tired of the narrative as well. I told you he was going to get hurt here too. I told you about the sophomore slump.

I told you know, go out there and point. I show these guys what you're capable of. We already know what he's capable of. He's the franchise. He's what people are going to come pay for the next 10, 15 years. But still, I think he needs to go out there and play if he can. Do you like Rodriguez more than Kroski, Merritt? I don't like either one of them, really.

I mean, I like both of them for, I guess, their role. But they need somebody to get a home run every now and then. There's nobody on that roster, offensively, other than when Jaden plays, that can take one to the house. But Rodriguez, between the tackles I like, he's kind of more of an Alfred Morris type guy, and then Merritt's kind of like a little shiftier type guy. They both are okay.

I just, you know, not a huge fan of either one of them. What would be the number one priority in the offseason, player-wise? Wow. Where do you start? I'd probably go past rush or defense event. Right. somebody that, you know, you've got to get home with four guys.

We need some more speed, some skill around Jaden. Yeah, I don't know. I would love to get a game breaking back. I'd be awesome to stand next to Jaden. I would strike fear in people's eyes. I think tight end is very critical. I think Zach Gertz is on his final leg, and there's nobody behind them.

Obviously, they don't have any faith in Ben. Unfortunately, invades is more of a blocker, so they need a threat at tight end. I don't know where to begin. Where are we begin? we need a linebacker, holy cow. Bobby can't play forever. He can't play forever, right?

Yeah, you can't be this bad. You can't continue to be this bad on defense and expect, you know, your offense, especially if it's not healthy to bail you out. They've got to get better on defense. But yes, I mean, where do you start is, of course, the right answer to that because there are a lot of places you could go. If you're looking at a top 10 pick

and you get the number one defensive player, I probably, I would love to get that safety linebacker The safety from Ohio State, that would be huge. Taylor Downs, yeah. Yeah, a pass rusher, I think, would probably be most beneficial. Here are three guys that have ties to Dan Quinn. I want you to tell me which one you would choose if all three are available to be your defensive coordinator next year.

Rahim Morris, if he doesn't, you know, come back in Atlanta. Al Harris, who was with him in Dallas. Jeff Albrecht, who's with Rahim in L. Atlanta. All three are defensive guys, and they've been with Quinn. Which of the three, if they're available, do you think Quinn would pick? Or which one would you pick? Well, I don't know all brick very well. I'd probably go to Raheem, just because he's got experience on both sides of the ball. If he's available, I know Atlanta's probably going to make a change. And he and Coach Quinn have a great familiarity with each other, so I'd probably go Rahim. He's good

with the players. I mean, Coach Quinn is the coordinator anyway, right? It doesn't really matter. He's a defensive guy. He hasn't, he wasn't calling the plays until this week. He wasn't putting the game playing together, do you think? I thought he, what's he doing meetings?

You've got to be there. He's just sitting in his office, he's got to be involved in the defense. I would say, I don't know. Maybe he doesn't. I don't know. Well, I mean, explain that. Like, do you think that this has been as much Dan Quinn's defense for the, and until prior to Sunday as it was Joe Witt Juniors?

Yeah, I do. Okay. I could be dead wrong, but I believe it would be. I'd be like saying it's Sean McVeigh's offense or Kevin O'Connell's office, and I'm sitting right there in the game plan and putting stuff in the, you know? Yeah, no, yeah. I don't think anybody ever thought it was anybody's offense except for yours, for sure, even though you were the head coach.

Andy Reed, if Amy Reed gives up play calling, and still his offense, I would assume. But I don't know. You never know. All right, let's talk about Sunday, and then let's get your lock of the week. We'll do that right after these words from a few of our sponsors. Hey, guys, taking care of your mental health shouldn't be harder than taking care of your physical health. If you pull a muscle, you go see a doctor. But when it comes to finding the right therapist, suddenly it can be frustrating.

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Just hit the plus button or the follow button. Appreciate all of you who have done it. And if you haven't, you can spare 60 seconds to do it, it would be much appreciated. What did you think of Houston last night in their win over Buffalo? You know, Houston's been playing good defense all year. They have unbelievable personnel on defense. They could get after the quarterback.

They could cover. They get tough physical players in the safety and the linebacker position. So it was a big win for them. I think they puts them right back in the playoff hunt. And they're chasing, I don't think they'll catch Indianapolis, but they're chasing that wild card, which is going to be a very tough battle with Kansas City, them. there are four other. Buffalo.

There's some teams that are in Jacksonville. I mean, it's going to be a battle in the AFC for that six-seven spot. They still have both of their games with the Colts left in the AFC South. All right, real quickly on a couple of games Sunday, Colts Chiefs, is this must win for Kansas City? Oh, yeah, must win for Kansas City. They can't fall too far behind because there's too many teams that are ahead of them and beat them already. Jackson will already beat them, so if it comes to a head-to-head, they've already got to win. I think Buffalo beat them, so they come to a head-to-head wildcard spot.

They got to win, and they've got to win now. Do you have concerns about the Colts with what Daniel Jones has done the last two weeks in terms of turnovers? You have to have concerns about that. If you can stop Jonathan Taylor and force Daniel Jones, a high dose of Daniel Jones, I think you have a much better chance to win the football game. So, yeah, I do have a concern with Indianapolis and their ability to win if you limit Jonathan Taylor. Eagles Cowboys, did you see enough of Dallas on Monday night with Quinn and Williams added to the defense to think that they can get back into this thing? I think when you add Kenny Clark and Quinn and Williams to your interior defensive line, it changes everything.

And they were absolutely atrocious without those two guys early in a year. And the linebackers were no good. now you had at least a functional guy with the guy they got to Logan Wilson and obviously overshahn is coming back too so it makes a world of difference in the middle of deep. They still lack of true pass rush.

I know Fowler's there and James Houston's done some pretty good thing, but a true pass rush. But they got functional guys now and they can compete. There's no doubt about it. You give them a chance at home against Philly Sunday? Oh, you want my lock of the week right now? Well, is that is it coming? That's my lack of the week. Okay, well, hold on then.

Let's real quickly. Tell me about the Rams right now. They beat Seattle last week. Darnold threw four interceptions in the game. You know, we've talked about how great both of these teams are. Is your takeaway after Darnold threw four picks that the Rams right now are the best team in that division and maybe the best team in the NFC, if not in the entirety of the NFL? No, not at all. I think when you throw four picks, I would expect you to pull away quite comfortably. However, Seattle had a field will to win the game at the buzzer. Seattle's beef. They're very good as well.

I still think Seattle's a better team now. I do like the Rams. Obviously, Matthew, I'm concerned about their offensive line. I don't think it's very good. And they hit Matthew a lot. They were two for 11 on third down against Seattle. So I have my concerns on L.A. in that regard. So I think L.A. is a good team, but I don't think they're the number one team in NFC.

Who's going to the Super Bowl from the NFC? right now I'd think Philadelphia just because top the bottom defensively they're really, really good they just got to get it together on offense and quick pickering and read and press clippings and worrying about fantasy football staff and just win, they'll be okay, but

now they're all over Jalen Hertz and AJ Brown's talking again and just just shut the hell up and go win a game 12 to 10 and don't worry about it. Did you like winning 12 to 10? I don't care how we want, just win the damn game. You know, what it's all about. You know, from an offensive guy,

love to win 35 but nothing every time, but, you know, being an offensive coach, you probably would rather win 35, 34. However, I know how important defenses down the stretch, and I'd much rather win 13 to 10, knowing that I have a defense can hold a team to 10 points. It would be unbelievable. What do you think of the criticism, the specific criticism of Jalen Hertz, that he plays his game rather than the game they want him to play? And they've identified just how long he holds on to the ball and he won't let it rip, which is something apparently they'd like him to do more often. Fair criticism or not? Yeah, there is some true truth to that. He does hold the ball. He does not want to let the ball go. He's very conservative. There have been very

successful quarterbacks in the past. Alex Swift was kind of like that. He would not turn it loose down the field unless the guy is wide open. He would have to check down. Brad Johnson was kind of like that at Tampa Bay. He was very conservative, but very effective. That's an effective way to win. Moving the chains, you're possessing the football, you're keeping your defense fresh, and you're eating up the time of possession. So there's a lot of good that comes out of that. You know, just because he doesn't rip a dagger in between two linebackers like Jerry golf every now. That doesn't mean he's ineffective. He's still an effective quarterback just doesn't take the risk that people want him to take.

All right. Let's get to it. Five out of his last six on fire with his lock of the week, Sounds like it's coming from the big game in the 4 o'clock window. Eagles of Cowboys, right now, Philly, a three and a half point favorite. Yeah, I'm thinking of Cowboys at home, I think offensively, this George Pickens guy and C.D. Lamb together might be the best tandem since Jamar Chaston P. Higgins. You know what I mean? These two guys are monsters, and Ferguson was a hell of a tight end, and Williams is running a ball very good. The offensive line is doing pretty good. I don't think they're going to have a track meeting that game, like a lot of high points. but I think Washington Dallas offense can do just enough to push Philadelphia to have to throw the ball and then maybe Dallas can get some pressure somehow some way.

So I think Dallas gets to win or they at least cover the three-tamp. Man, Pickens, right? I knew he was good. I didn't know he was this good. Did you? You know, he had a knee injury. At Georgia, I thought he was just like, he looked just like, hey, I got word of these guys at Georgia Friday's whiteout. He looks just like AJ Green.

Yeah. His length, his ability to contort his body and all. different forms and the 50-50 balls he's gonna they're not 50 they're like 90-10 to pick yeah um yeah it's they're very similar but yeah he's he's unbelievable i think uh he's gained more confidence pittsbury kind of they didn't really use them they couldn't really throw the ball until he's frustrated kind of let us you know pants fall down a little bit and now he's found the home and um has a good quarterback and a good system and a good receiver around him so yeah he's going to get the benefit of getting a lot of one-on-ones because everybody's so afraid of

dallas plus three and a half is jay's lock of the week happy thanksgiving to you i appreciate it as always enjoy it and we'll talk a week from today yes sir thanks kevin jruden everybody smell test next after these words from a few of our sponsors so guys i introduced you to a really good product a while back and i want to remind everybody for those of you that have been wearing the same boxer briefs the same any kind of underwear for a long time now I've got a better answer for you. I want to tell you about skims for men, something I've discovered recently,

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this season, the Skims Holiday Shop is now open at skims.com. Kevin looks where the John Q public is putting their cash and does the opposite. It's time for the smell test. The smell test is always brought to you by My Bookie. My Bookie's offering a 50% cash bonus to all of my listeners. Whether you're a new customer or an existing customer of My Booky. That's unusual. Typically, you don't get cash bonus offers when you're already signed up. But if you're a listener of this podcast and you are, My Booky's offering you a 50% cash bonus. So if you're a new customer, go to the Kevin Sheeonshow.com slash MyBooky. Use the promo code DC Reload, D-C-R-E-L-A-D. If you're an existing customer of my bookie, just log on and when you make that next deposit, promo code DC Reload.

I mention this all the time. If there's something already in the promo code section, erase it and type in DC Reload. Also, for those of you, and there are only a few of you that occasionally don't really understand it, and you're betting for the first time, and I get it when you're not exposed to this. you're new, no, you can't make the deposit, get the cash bonus, not wager at all, and hope to withdraw all of your money from the account with a 50% gain. No, that's not allowed. You've got to bet, you know, 5x, okay, five times your deposit size before you can withdraw. But look, if you're not doing it to wager, then don't do it.

it. If you are someone who bets on sports, of course you should do it. You should take the free money, even if you've got another place where you're gambling. Use my bookie as your backup. Use it as a place where you're going to compare on point spreads and money lines and totals and prop bet pricing and every kind of pricing. My bookie's old school, they're traditional. They're not going to gouge you on a straight bet loss. There are too many of those places out there right now where, you know, if you bet $100 on a game, you're paying minus $125 if you lose. So you're paying $125 if you lose. At my bookie, it's minus 110. You pay $110 on a loss. To do this right, you have to get the best number and the best price. And you can't do that if you're wagering at just one spot. You're just

taking that number and that price and you don't know if it's the best number or the best number. best price. To do this right, you need at least two sports books where you can make sure that you're getting the better number, the better price. It makes a huge difference. You know how many of these games come down to the exact number, you know, or one point either way, and a half point on a point spread. If, you know, if you're laying six instead of six and a half, it makes a big difference. You'll take the push on a game that ends up at six rather than losing at six and a half. So, yeah, take the free money, too. Use my bookie as a secondary spot if you're already wagering in one place.

Take the 50% cash bonus in the process. My promo code, again, is DC Reload. By the way, I was looking at the current NFL totals, win totals for the season. Washington at five and a half now. It started a few months back at nine and a half. It's at five and a half now. If you want to bet the over, plus 170 on over five and a half. So if you think Washington can win three of its final six games to get to six and eleven or better,

a $10 bet pays $17, a $100 bet pays $1,000, a $1,000, a $1,000 bet pays $1,700. plus 170 is not a bad number. The under number is minus 212. So it is costly to bet under. Obviously, those are the better odds looking at Washington's schedule, looking at how hurt they are. Most think it could be very difficult for them to win at least three more. For us, we would all say it's contingent on whether or not they can get healthy on offense.

They're never going to get healthy on defense this year. but can they get Jaden and Terry and all those guys back? Maybe then they would have a chance to win some of these games down the stretch. All right, let's get to the picks. Last week, 5, 2, and 1 on the season 81, 47, and 9. That's 63.3%. 12 weeks into this thing. I have not had one week in which I've given out more losers.

than winners to 500 weeks, I understand you don't win going 500, but of the 12 weeks so far with the smell test, 10 weeks of more winners than losers, two weeks with an equal number of winners and losers, and again, 8147 and 9 on this season. I'm expecting some sort of correction here. I've been talking about it for the last few weeks. happen. I guess it doesn't always happen. Maybe it'll be next year that it happens. Let's just ride this thing while we can. And I do like the card this week. You know, I mentioned on yesterday's show because many of you reached out to me and said, Houston's going to be a smell test pick. And it almost was. There was a lot of public action on Buffalo. But the reason I didn't give it out, and the same reason

I didn't give out the under, because I liked the under last night, too, is that there was sharp money, equal sharp money based on the information that I had on both sides. Typically, I like, you know, overwhelming public, you know, wagers on one team and short money on the other side. And last night didn't fit it perfectly. I liked Houston. I played Houston. I played the under.

You know, it's interesting when I give out sort of liens, you know, not official picks, but like I feel really good about this one side. It seems like, you know, over the years, I swear to God, that more of those have lost than one. This year, I think if I gave out all of the sides that I kind of, you know, labeled as a strong lean, I think most of those would be winners as well. It's like it's hard for me to pick losers.

It's coming. I promise you it's coming. I hope it's not this week. I hope it's not next week. I hope it's not this year. Maybe it'll be next. This kind of pace is really hard to keep up. But let's go for it.

Let's get to the games. Louisville last week I gave out Clemson last Friday night getting points. They won out right. This week, I've got Louisville plus three at SMU to start off your Saturday. Louisville's dropped a couple of games in a row. SMU's won a couple of games in a row. including an impressive win a few weeks ago against Miami. They've been a good home team.

They're laying what the public believes to be is a short number. So I'll take the Cards, the Louisville Cards, plus three. By the way, cards, cardinals, cardinal, a bit of a theme with this week's smell test. Florida Atlantic plus seven against Yukon. Yukon's eight and three. They've been playing very well. They beat Duke a couple of weeks ago. this number feels for the public better like it should be 8, 9, 10.

It's only a touchdown. I'll take FAU plus the 7. Georgia Tech, big game in the ACC tomorrow at home. If they win, they're in the ACC championship game. They barely beat Boston College last week. They needed a late field goal. Right now, Georgia Tech can't stop anybody. The total in this game against Pitt tomorrow is 62.

That's not the play. The play is Pitt plus the three. They got run last week by Notre Dame, but Pitt can really score. I see this being, you know, 41, 38, 38, 35. Pitt plus three is the play. The public's all over Georgia Tech, knowing that a win puts them into the ACC title game.

The big rivalry game in the Bay Area, Stanford Cal, that's now an ACT, C. C. CAL's been rolling. Stanford, not so much. The line super short, Cal Lange, three and a half. Give me the Stanford Cardinal plus three and a half. Cincinnati hosting BYU. Cincinnati has lost a couple of games in a row. BYU bounced back last week. That was one of my losers. I had TCU lost on that. BYU very impressive in that game. And yet, BYU is laying just three on the road against a Cincinnati team that can't stop anybody.

Early on, it looked like Cincinnati was going to be really in contention in the Big 12. The public's all over BYU. I'll take Cincinnati plus the three. And then for some reason in recent weeks, the odds makers kind of like Colorado. I gave them out plus six and a half against West Virginia. a few weeks ago. They did not get it done. They could have, they were hanging in there. They're getting seven against a good Arizona state team. That line just seems for the average better like it's short and it should be higher. I'll take Colorado plus the seven. Let's go to

Sunday. Both New York teams are major anti-public, big underdogs. The Jets getting 14 at Baltimore, I'll take them. The Giants getting 13 against the Lions, I'll take them. Look, the Jets have Tyrod Taylor this week, not Justin Fields. And I know I've given out the Jets a couple of times with Justin Fields at quarterback, and it actually worked against Denver. Remember in London, when they were getting like seven and a half or eight. Yeah, I almost gave them out last Thursday night, and they covered by like a half point against New England. I'll take them plus the 14. I'm not a fan of the Ravens yet.

You know, I'm sorry, but I think their defense stinks. Dylan Gabriel had he not gotten hurt, I think Cleveland would have won that game last week. I gave out the Browns plus the eight last week, and they were on the verge of winning that game outright. They weren't necessarily super impressive against Minnesota or Miami. Look, everybody's got the Ravens, you know,

rolling to an easy AFC North title. I don't see it that way. I think it'll come down to probably that last game against Pittsburgh. Their second game against Pittsburgh, they play two of them yet. I like the Jets plus 14 with what will be a much better quarterback in Tyrod Taylor. Look, it's painful to play the Giants right now, although last week they were in there against Green Bay. You would think Detroit's going to bounce back in a major way the public does, laying less than two touchdowns at home against the Giants. That's why I like the Giants. They are right now the biggest anti-public play of the weekend of the NFL Sunday.

Yeah, they are the largest right now. More wagers on Detroit than any other team. And that line has stayed, you know, under two touchdowns. So give me the Giants plus the 13. I'm going against New England again. I know that it hasn't worked out. for me for the most part, although I did get that Atlanta a few weeks back plus the number. I did not play New England, remember. I thought I was going to have the Patriots, did not

have them at Tampa Bay. Cincinnati, maybe with Joe Burrow back, catching seven at home against a New England team that's been rolling. I'll take the Bengals plus the seven at home. And then I know one of my losers last week, TCU and the Cardinals were the two losers last week. I loved the Cardinals against the 49ers last week. That was not even close. Give them to me again, getting three at home against Jacksonville coming off that beatdown of the Chargers. Jags last week, Jacksonville was a smell test pick, and that was easy as they rolled the Chargers by 29 points, getting three at home. They're giving three a short number against the Cardinals.

I'll take Arizona at home plus the three. So I've got the Cardinals in the NFL. I got the Cardinals in college, and I got the Cardinal in college. Here are the picks recapped. Louisville plus three. FAU plus seven, Pitt plus three, Stanford plus three and a half, Cincinnati plus three, and Colorado plus seven tomorrow. and then the Jets plus 14, the Giants plus 13, the Bengals plus 7, and the Cardinals plus 3.

Again, I think I'll end up giving out the Panthers on Monday, but I'm going to hold off on that one until then. So 10 plays overall, and yeah, I don't know. I feel good about these plays. They all kind of align, but at some point the public's going to have a big weekend. They had a couple of big weekends, and I just happened to have been on the right anti-public sides because there were a couple of weeks in there where the public did well, and it's like I didn't give out the anti-public sides in the games that they won for some reason. Living right so far this year, that's for sure.

All right, good luck back on Monday.