The Kevin Sheehan Show - Fading WFT?

Episode Date: August 10, 2021

Pretty much an entire show of WFT and NFL talk. Kevin talked preseason opener with New England, the first official depth chart, and then welcomed Eric Eager from Pro Football Focus on the show. Eric is fading Washington as an over-hyped team and he explains why. Plenty of other NFL talk with Eric as well.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheehan Show. Here's Kevin. If you bet on sports, listen closely. You should not have one spot where you wager. If you're taking this seriously, you should have multiple spots.

So if you don't have an account at MyBooky yet, go get one at MyBooky.ag and use my promo code, Kevin, D.C., and they'll match your first deposit. it halfway up to a thousand bucks. So you're going to get free money to bet with and then you'll have another spot to comparison shop with. You should be looking for the best point spreads, the best money lines, the best totals, and the best pricing. You know, a lot of people think that, you know, minus 110 on a loss. So if you bet $100, lose 110 if you lose the bet, is a really good vig. Well, there are spots that offer minus 108, minus 107, sometimes. You know, minus 105. There are spots out there right now that are charging minus 115 minus 120. You don't want

that. You should be shopping all of that. It makes a big difference at the end of, say, a football season. You know, if you can find a half point line better at one spot, and you can pay minus 107 instead of minus 110 at another, these are the things that ultimately add up over the course of a season. My bookie offers Fair point spreads, fair money lines, fair pricing. Go find them. Sign up. Use my bonus code, Kevin D.C., even if you already have a place to bet. I've got a guest on the show today. Eric Eager from Pro Football Focus will join us. I'll explain why Eric is on the show when I bring him on. A reminder to subscribe to the podcast if you haven't already. It does not cost you a thing. It helps us. Also, rate us and review us. where you can, five stars preferably in a short one sentence, favorable review. All of those things really help us on the business side, especially if you're listening to us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. If you haven't had a chance to rate and review us, if you could do that, and if you could subscribe, that helps as well. So, before we get to our guest, I did want to mention that Chris Samuels,

who, Chris Samuels, Curtis Samuel, not Chris Samuels, the former left tackle, Curtis Samuel, the big prized free agent signing, offensive signing in the off season, was finally pulled off the COVID list yesterday, but he made his way to the pup list with the groin injury. I would not be concerned at this point. We have plenty of time between now in the opener, and I don't really care if he plays a preseason game. I do care that he is in full fledge practice mode by the time we get to, you know, eight days, nine days out before the charger game. But I did want to mention this as it relates to Curtis Samuel. The fact that he was on the COVID-19 list for that long, I think you can conclude that he had COVID. I think that's a pretty

fair assumption and conclusion to come to. If he was in close contact, he would have been off that COVID-19 list earlier. He said, spent nine days on it. Now he's back on the pub list with the lingering groin injury. Yeah, all of those things are a bit, a bit concerning. But again, we've got 33 days before the opener. So plenty of time for him to get healthed up prior to the opener. By the way, yesterday, Nikki Jabala, and the Washington Post has been doing a pretty good job on the vaccination rates for not just this team, but the NFL as a whole. Washington through 9 a.m. yesterday had 86% of their current roster, 90-man roster,

that it had at least one shot. 59.3% of the team was fully vaccinated. That number is much higher than it was a month ago. However, it still ranks 28th among 32 teams in the NFL. So they still have a long way to go. and what you don't know at this point is you don't know whether or not the vaccinated players are all players that are on the back half, you know, the 54 through 90 spots on the roster. If all of those players are vaccinated, well, your percentage is going to come down.

And actually today, after a very light practice, the final one before they take on the Patriots in the preseason opener on Thursday night. Montez Sweat met with the media. and Montes, what, if you recall, from about a month, maybe a month and a half ago now, it's probably closer to a month ago, said about the vaccine after they had a world-leading immunologist in to speak to the team. He said, well, I haven't gotten COVID yet. I'll get the vaccine if I get COVID. He obviously sort of missed out on what a vaccine is. Well, today he was asked about it in his first media appearance since that last one. and he did say that the team talks about the COVID vaccine all the time, and he said,

quote, it's a personal decision with me and my family, closed quote. He wore a mask up to the podium, which might be an indication that he is still unvaccinated. By the way, Ron Rivera, in talking about the preseason opener against the Patriots, said that, you know, the starters are going to play. he mentioned that the other day, and he said, really, this is going to be about evaluating the talent, and he's really looking for consistency. He also said something that was pretty interesting yesterday in talking about the preseason, and he mentioned actually that he doesn't like the preseason. His quote was, I hate it, which we all do, you know, Ron, we feel with you and for you on this front.

But he did say something that I thought was so interesting. He said that one of the things you are able to discern from a preseason game that you can't in practice at this point in the season is the guy that plays a different way when he's in full uniform and the game's on TV and they're playing against another opponent, even if it's a preseason game versus the way he plays in practice. And he gave a couple of examples, but this was the best one. He said if a guy, a defensive back in practice is consistently jumping routes and making plays, he can do that in practice because there aren't any consequences. When you get to a game, you watch that same player that was super aggressive, super carefree,

super confident in practice. Does he play the same way? Or does he fear the consequence of getting beat deep? So does he play differently? And he said there's a lot to be learned from those situations when you're evaluating players. And I think anybody that's ever participated at any level in sports, you know, certainly as you got older, you know what he's talking about. You know if you played on a high school team, you know, a high school football team or a high school basketball team or a high school, you know, baseball team. You know that you handled practice differently.

You were more carefree. You were more willing to take risks more times than not. And then when the game started, it's like, okay, if I overplay this and I try to make a steal off the ball, I could get beat back door badly for a layup. And you just play differently. Or a lot of people do. I think it's those guys that have that swagger and practice that then bring it to the games where the coaches say, yeah, that guy, you know, he's a gamer.

You know, I always think about John Beck whenever we have these conversations about practice and games. I don't think about Alan Iverson. I think about John Beck because there was this narrative in 2011 that John Beck was in a legitimate competition to be the starting quarterback with Rex Grossman. Mike told me a few years after the fact that Rex Grossman was the guy. He was their starter. but Kyle really liked Beck when Kyle was in Houston and Beck practiced it exceptionally well. I mean, he really looked good in practice. But as I always referred to John Beck, he was a tremendous layup line guy.

He looked great going through the layup lines and then when the game started, he was not the same person. And Mike pretty much conceded that point. Ironically, John Beck has become sort of a quarterback goof. He coached up and trained a lot of quarterbacks that were drafted or that were entering the draft this year. And he's considered a bit of a of a QB guru, you know, in his post-career profession. But, you know, that sort of goes hand in hand with sometimes the best coaches weren't the best players. Anyway, there is a preseason game on Thursday night. It's at New England.

Washington's a two-point favorite over New England in this game. I do not recommend betting preseason football. We've had that conversation before. It's a football game. It's preseason. It's our first chance to see Ryan Fitzpatrick specifically. It's our first chance to see Jamon Davis. I think always preseason games in that first preseason game,

first of all, it's we get to watch football. Secondly, it's who are the new players? And we get to see what they look like in a Washington uniform and how they play. Well, you know, really it's Ryan Fitzpatrick, because there's not going to be any Curtis Samuel in this game. It's Ryan Fitzpatrick and probably Jamin Davis, and maybe to a lesser extent, William Jackson. But I think those are the players.

You want to see the new players. And I've got one request, and I think I mentioned this to Tommy yesterday on the podcast. One request, two, actually. The hope is nobody gets injured. The second request is I just want to see them throw the football all over the park. I want to see Ryan Fitzpatrick attempt 60 passes in three preseason games. I want 20 passes per game. I don't care about a running game.

They're not game planning for the opponent. I want to see he and his new receivers get into a rhythm against another opponent, not their own team. I've mentioned this many times in the past. There are examples of some of the best quarterbacks in the game, and there are examples of some of the best quarterbacks in the game, not throwing a lot in preseason. But Russell Wilson and Aaron Rogers and Tom Brady have had games in the preseason

including the final preseason game, where they've thrown 20 to 25 passes in a half. Jay Gruden really didn't believe in doing much in these preseason games, and they typically didn't start very well. I don't know if the two are linked or not. Many of you do. But I would like to see new quarterback with new receivers throw the ball a lot against an opposing defense. That would be my one request.

The depth chart, the initial depth chart, came out. I'll get to that, and then our guest, Eric Eager from Pro Football Focus, will join us right after these words from a few of our sponsors. Before we get to a major league deep dive on the first official depth chart of the season, I did want to thank those of you who have told me for a while now. If you're looking for a new show, watch Ted Lassow. I watched the first four episodes of season one last night, and I absolutely love it. Cowboy Clay, Steve, Rob, Patty. There are several of you that have reached out to me over the last, I don't know, several months when we've talked television shows, and you've said, you guys are going to love this show. I watched the first four episodes last night, and I can't wait to get to the rest of it.

I've heard it gets better and better. Also, to those of you who may be scratching themselves like I have been for the last three or four days, with little bug bites. These are oak mites that are out there. I don't know how many people are familiar with the oak mite bites, but just Google it. There have been stories written in all sorts of newspapers.

There's like headlines, D.C. residents, terrorized by invisible flesh-eating might. Yeah, this is a real thing. And I've been scratching some bugger. bites on my arms and legs for the last three or four nights. At first I thought they might be bedbugs from this furnished rental that we've had to move into for a time being until our new house is ready to be moved into. But apparently what they are is they have come to feed on cicada eggs that were left by the cicadas last, not last month, but now two months ago, which by the way was sort of an overrated event, I think. I mean, the noise wasn't bothersome. I didn't have to go with an

umbrella outside to keep them off my face and body. That never happened. But these mites are a real deal. So if you're scratching yourself and you can't figure out why and you've got little red bug bites on your arms especially, that's what it is. These are oak mites. They're apparently in oak trees feeding off the cicada eggs left. Remember, cicadas basically, or the brood-ex cicadas, right? Every 17 years, they come out, they fly around, they bang another cicada, they lay their eggs and they die, and then, you know, 17 years later, the new ones hatch. Well, apparently these mites love these eggs, and when the wind blows a little bit and you're near an oak tree, they're landing on bodies, and they're biting you. You can't see them. Apparently they are microscopic in size, like,

Like they are a fraction of like the size of a pinhead. But they're also apparently not dangerous at all. But anyway, that's all I got on that. The depth chart is out. Look, I, you know, I'm not going to make fun of the people that do the depth charts. I'm not talking about the teams. I'm talking about the people who, you know, update their 53-man roster projection. Doc used to give me a hard time.

He used to say, when's your 53-man roster? coming out. And I said, I don't do that. I think I did it for maybe like two or three years. But then I realized it's just not for me. Anyway, I don't want to completely sort of, you know, be condescending or diminish, you know, the results of it. Washington put it out. Look, somebody pays attention to this thing. I don't know if it's old Joe in the mailroom that puts it together, but somebody puts it together that has a general idea of what the depth chart actually is. You know, it's not like teams are sitting there going, oh, let's put together a depth chart that's really misleading.

So the Patriots on Thursday night plan for, you know, David Sharp at right tackle instead of Sam Cosmy. They don't care about that at this point. They're supposed to put out honest effort depth charts before the first preseason game. And, you know, for me, a lot can change, obviously, between now and the opener. But they're instructive, especially in those areas where you think there's a lot of competition. And, you know, it also sort of matches up with what a lot of the beat guys have been seeing at practice. So the two areas that were, you know, for me, interesting to at least look at, I wanted to look at wide receiver and I wanted to look at offensive line. I wanted to see, you know, what they had line.

up his starter because I'm surprised that Eric Flowers isn't the starting left guard. I thought when they acquired Eric Flowers, they acquired him to be the starting left guard. Well, West Schweitzer was the starting left guard last year. And he's number one in the depth chart. And he has been the guy that's gotten the most reps with the first team. So Eric Flowers looks like a depth guy. And he's number two behind Schweitzer on the depth chart. They've got Leno at left tackle. They've got obviously Rui at center and sheriff at right guard. And then I was interested to see who, you know, the number one right tackle was. It's Sam Cosmy.

At wide receiver, I wanted to see, you know, what they had. Well, they have what you would expect, even though one of these guys isn't available right now. But Terry McLaren, of course, Curtis Samuel, who hasn't practiced yet, and Adam Humphreys were the top three receivers. And then behind them, Diami Brown, behind Terry at the X. and then you had Cam Sims behind Curtis Samuels and Stephen Sims, Jr., behind Adam Humphrey. So that would give you an idea, at least as far as you can believe this, that those are the six guys right now.

Now, Sims Jr. is battling it out with D'Andre Carter to be the punt returner. And whoever wins that punt returner job, I think, is going to be the sixth receiver. I guess they could keep seven, but more likely than not six, which means a guy like Antonio Gandy Golden, guy that a lot of people loved last summer is in more likely than not trouble. Isaiah Wright, Kelvin Harmon from NC State coming off his injury, appears to be in trouble.

He's the fourth receiver on one of the receiver's spots. So anyway, yeah, that's it. You know, Jamie Davis is penciled in as a starting middle linebacker. The more I've talked to various people, I think we're going to see a lot of different defensive alignments. You know, their base is four or three, but they're in nickel a lot. They play a Buffalo nickel, which at times can be a linebacker. A lot of the times they have just two linebackers on the field,

and none of them are playing that middle linebacker spot. I think you're going to see a lot of in year two with a full off season, a lot of creativity defensively this year, especially given they've got a lot of players that they feel comfortable putting on the field. with, by the way, as Ron Rivera always talks about, sort of positional flexibility. That's important for him. That's why a guy like Cornelius Lucas is valuable to them.

Maybe a guy like Sadiq Charles as well, a guy that can play multiple positions. They want that positional flexibility. They want to be able to endure injuries in a way in which it allows them to plug and play with guys that are used to playing various spots and are capable of playing those spots. By the way, on that depth chart, Danny Johnson was the number one kick returner. And even though Stephen Sims Jr. was ahead of DeAndre Carter at wide receiver, Carter was

ahead of Sims Jr. as the punt returner. So there. Taylor Heineke, for those that were interested, did come up yesterday in practice hobbling a little bit, but Rivera said he would be okay. Kyle Allen now has been sidelined for more than a week because of that, you know, ankle re-injury. That's obviously going to cost him dearly here unless he can get it together and get into some of these games because I still believe that Rivera and Turner and company like Kyle Allen a lot. All right. When we come back, Eric Eager from Pro Football Focus will be our guest and you'll hear why I asked him to come on the show as I introduce him right after these words from a few of our sponsors. All right, we welcome on to the podcast, Eric Eager from Pro Football Focus.

We've had a lot of the guys from PFF on the podcast and the radio show. And I haven't told you why Eric is on the podcast today. But he did come on the radio show a couple of weeks ago, and we had a lengthy conversation about Washington and the NFC East and a lot of other NFL-related topics. But the reason I asked Eric on today is because he and his partner, podcast partner, got into a debate about Washington. And Eric, I'll let you sort of present what you said and the case that you made for it.

But you're not all that bullish on Washington in 2021, are you? for me it's always about the price right so early in the off season I think everybody their initial inclination was that Dallas would be good again and and so people were offering Washington to win the division at like four to one I took that I actually did that's a good bet oh you did you played Washington at plus 400 to win the division yeah okay yes they are currently because I have Washington in about 29% to win the division and because of all the reasons they won it last year. They have really good talent on defense. I think they have a pretty good coach. They obviously improved in the QB position.

Now the markets have Washington at plus 230 to win this division, depending upon where you look. And that, to me, is too high. So that's kind of the premise that I have is that, like, look, there are things about the Washington football team that the media falls in love with. They love defense. They love a running game with Antonio Gibson.

They love Terry McCorn. And all those things make sense in a vacuum. But, you know, they have an eight and a half win total. Last year, their win total was five in the betting market. And when I look back and say, okay, is this really a seven-win team that I only need to win basically one more game because, you know, they give the 17th game too, they just need to win one more game. And I look back and I think, well, what was the composition of the Washington football team season? last year. Seven wins. Two of them were against Dallas's backup quarterback.

Two of them were against the Eagles. One were Carson went starting his meltdown. The second one was kind of wind-dated by Doug Peterson at the end. Let's be honest. Then you have a win against, you have two losses to Daniel Jones. You have a win against Nick Mullins in Arizona where you needed two defensive touchdown to win a one-score game, I believe. you know, and you had a win against Cincinnati where, you know, the Bengals had a lead and then Joe Burroughs' his ACL. And I look and I'm thinking, not only did Washington not beat a quarterback better than Ben Rufflesburg or last year, but they didn't actually play that many good ones, right? They played, you know, they basically played Russell Wilson and, you know, and that was,

so I look back and I think, okay, so this season is that same thing. things is that same thing true? And you look, you're like, absolutely not. Week one, they get Justin Herbert. Week three, they get Josh Allen. Week four, they get Matt Ryan, who's, I think, going to have a great year with Arthur Smith as the coach. Then you have Kansas City, Green Bay.

Then a week later, two weeks later, you have Tampa Bay. So you have Tom Brady. You have Russell Wilson two weeks after that. And then you have a short rest. You've got to fly to Vegas to play Derek Carr. He's had two good seasons in a row. And then in the last five weeks, you have Dak Prescott. twice. And so when I look at this, I'm thinking to myself, sure, they could have a good defense,

but good defenses in the NFL, the best you can kind of ask for them to do is to keep great quarterbacks at bay, right? In the playoffs last year, they held, you know, the story was Taylor Heineke, but really what happened is they gave up 31 points to Tampa Bay. And, you know, they give up 31 points to Tampa Bay, and they give up 31 points to, let's say, Green Bay, and Kansas City, my question then turns around to the quarterback position, and I will all agree

that Ryan Fitzpatrick is a lot better than Alex Smith, a lot better in Kyle Allen, and certainly better than Duane Haskin. But is he enough to cover the differential in the schedule that they're going to have this year? Wow. So, first of all, anybody that's listening to Eric Speak knows that you know, I've gone through many times over the last, you know, going back to January, really when we knew who the opponents would be, what the difference with this year would be. You nailed it. I mean, they have seven wins against, you know, essentially Danucci, Dalton, Mullins, Wentz, and, you know, they caught Pittsburgh, let's be honest, at the beginning of their downfall.

You know, they had played Baltimore on the Wednesday prior because of all the COVID rescheduling, and they barely beat Robert Griffin the third, you know, in a Wednesday afternoon game. So there is, and you nailed it on the playoff game, too. It wasn't just 31 points. They gave up 507 yards and had the ball rammed down their throat, and Chris Godwin dropped five balls. So it may have been 600 yards and 40 points had Godwin not dropped the number of passes he dropped. That game's been, by our fan base, totally outsized.

in terms of how close Washington was. Taylor Heineke did play a really good game in that playoff game. The defense was atrocious. And their best player, Eric on defense, Chase Young, came up the smallest. He was dominated in that game and wasn't doubled a lot either. Another sort of misconception that our fans have about Young's game against the Patriots, against the Buccaneers in the postseason. So, but I, I want to go through a couple of things here that you said, you're spot on about that. And I'm with you. I actually don't think that eight and a half, I don't think eight and a half is a terrible number. But I think there's a contrarian in me when it comes to when it comes to handicapping and betting just to begin with.

And every NFL pundit locally and nationally is all over Washington. Like they've picked them as this darling like they're going to compete with Tampa Bay. We've heard that. multiple times. Obviously, you know, the true odds don't reflect that, you know, the guys that, you know, no more than Ron Jaworski knows, you know, they have them at eight and a half and have nine teams with better over under totals in the NFC. Now, you said you played them at plus 400, but you wouldn't play them at plus 230. I'm curious as to which NFC East team now has better odds because of Washington's improved odds that you would play

to hedge against your Washington bet. Yeah, I mean, that's the thing. Like, when you come up with this, you know, you sort of, I have them under eight and a half, I have them, you know, but I have them at better numbers. And to me, the team that has the

best, the most bedable price right now is the New York Giants. And I, and I'm glad that you're on, I'm glad you're on, I'm glad you're born with me as far as the narratives are concerned, because I have a question, if the Eagles don't lay down in the fourth quarter against Washington in week 17 at Sunday Night Football, and the Giants get into playoffs at 6 and 10 as the NFC East champion, how do we view these two teams differently right now? I've done this many times. It's a totally different perspective. You're 100% right. Now, let me just say this. I am not a believer that if Jalen Hurts stays in the game,

that's like a guarantee that Philly's going to win the game. Washington was really, even with Hertz in the game, the better team that night. Now, Sudfeld didn't give him a better chance to win the game. Hertz gave him a better chance to win. But I still think Washington may have won that game and won the division. I think the bigger issue, you know, in terms of last year in the NFC East, is it's a no-brainer that if Saquan Barkley played last year, the Giants would have won the division. If Dak Prescott had been healthy, Dallas would have won the division going away, even with that defense.

You know, Washington lost to the Giants twice last year, and they beat the Cowboys with Dalton and Danucci or DeNuto or whatever the dude's name from James Madison was. So I agree with you. I think that there would be a much different narrative had they not, you know, made the playoffs at 7 and 9. Let's just say they went 7 and 9, but Dallas went 9 and 7. with Prescott, and they went to the postseason. I think there'd be a completely different perspective. Now, the defense, people were on the defense even before last year began. And by the way, I'll take it a step further as far as the playoff game.

Even though the truth is the defense got absolutely torched, the strength of the team, there is this perception and this takeaway, Eric, that Washington played the eventual champions really tough. And it was a competitive game. It was. They didn't get blown out at home to Brady and the Buccaneers. But yeah, I agree with you. I think people would have a – I don't – right now, I think the Giants would be the second

pick in the division, even by odds makers, because I like the giant roster, too. I think that they are very capable this year. Yeah, there's no dinging the good things about Washington. Like I think the defensive line is amazing. I really like the William Jackson acquisition. Cameron Crowe was awesome last year. I think when you look at the offense, I'm taking nothing away from Terry McClure,

nothing way from Inton & Gibson, and frankly, nothing away from Ryan Fitzpatrick, who's had three, I think, really good seasons in a row as a back of quarterback. The question is, is like, that's like, they're in sort of this JV, and the question is, can they be a varsity team with that? Like, can they step up in sort of class?

And you look at the Giants, like, Patrick Graham's a terrific defensive coordinator, Jadour Gable Pepper's had an awesome year, Xavier McKinney's in the second year, James Bradbury was an amazing, pre-ins signing for them last year, as was Blake Martinez. You know, they have Leonard Williams on the front. Like, their defense, I'm not thinking it's as good as Washington, but certainly in the same equivalence class, and then on the offensive side of the ball, like every single year in the NFL, almost without fail, there's a team that has a good defense, a somewhat easy schedule, and a rookie contract quarterback who plays not great, but just well enough for everybody to question

whether or not he's like the Blake Bortle's 2017 year, the Mitch Trubisky 2018 year, and while I don't know that, I'm not going to say like the Giants have a better than 50% chance of doing that, I mean the Giants have better than 25% chance doing that and at the current market prices, that's bettable. Yeah, you know, it's interesting, as you mentioned those two guys because they're great examples. I mean, that Bortle's team was within a whiskers. of going to the Super Bowl in that game in Foxborough. I mean, they had a legitimate chance to win that game with that defense,

which ironically, the week before, they gave up like 42 points. And I think some of it was turnover aided against the Steelers. But I actually view Daniel Jones's upside, and maybe this is easy to do in hindsight. But I think he's better than Trubisky and a lot better than Bordles. What do you think? I mean, certainly I think the narratives on his, him are skewed, right? So as a rookie, Daniel Jones have, like, a lot of touchdown

passes. So this is, like, I think, one of the cool things about PFSS is that we can sort of contextualize us, because after year one, when he has, you know, 3,000 yards, 24 touchdowns, everybody's like, you know, oh, Daniel Jones is great,

you guys are haters, blah, blah, blah. Last season, 6.6 yards for pass to him, by the way. Last season, he throws 11 touchdowns, 10 picks, a little under 3,000 yards and everybody thinks he's terrible. Same exact yards per attempt. So, like, there's so much noise associated with this

where I think if you were selling the Giants last year because of Daniel Jones, you're probably right. And if you buy the Giants this year because of Daniel Jones, you're probably right. And that's because, you know, and I joke because this is because the offseason is too long. But, like, the narratives on these guys just oscillates so wildly that you can almost pick up,

as you said, all the, all the, the praise on Washington right now, almost none on the Giants, especially given the head coach and some of the shenanigans he's up to. Like, this might be just the right about a time to buy into Jones and the Giants' whole. Yeah. You know, I thought that at the end of the year after Colt McCoy was playing when he was hurt and he came back in, I thought he did a much better job. It looked like he was maturing in terms of protecting the ball and they played some good defensive teams. you know, look, I'm not sold on Daniel Jones by any stretch of the imagination, but I'm also not off him completely by so many others are. I think he's got some gamer in him. And I think we saw that, you know, in a few games, whether it was that Tampa Bay game where they got robbed on the two-point conversion or they played a game early in the year against the Bears and he drove him all the way down there. He did throw a pick at the end.

I don't know. There's something about him that if I were a giant fan, I'd be not even close to the bailing point on him yet. Not even close to that point yet. I was just curious because the schedule thing is an interesting game to play. The NFL, you know, it's week to week as much as it is year to year. But playing the schedule game is so dangerous. And over the years, I've always said it's such a worthless game to play because you don't know what these teams are going to be like when you get there and how many times do you line up that schedule as a fan of a team and you say, well, that's a win and that's a win and that's a loss and that's a definite loss and it ends up being the exact opposite. I'm curious at PFF. Have you ever done any sort of analysis on sort of strength of schedule prior to year and what it ended up being and whether or not that is, you know, sort of a coin flip thing on evaluating a schedule before a season begins? Well, if you use previous years wins and loss, you're certainly just adding noise. Of course. The preseason betting market does a really good job of predicting wins year to year.

And so you use something like that, we've shown that that has some predictive power. It's still random. And when I talk about who's playing whom, I almost always go to the quarterback position because by and large, the quarterbacks don't get injured very much. much. The quarterbacks are the most important player on the team, and they influence the games. And so that's sort of how I've chosen to view it is more like, okay, what is the strength of the opposing quarterback? But you're right. If you're just looking saying, like, you know, if you have San Francisco on your schedule this year, last year to six and ten, and that's going to look good on your strength of schedule, whereas the market has the 49ers, the third best team

in the NFL right now. And that's certainly something you want to be better at. Yeah, I agree with that. It's more about sort of the projected, you know, teams in terms of what their performance in the upcoming year is in San Francisco is a perfect example using that. Yeah, it's, God, I had something off of that that I was going to ask you, and I just, I just forgot. I'm sure I'll pull it back here momentarily. But back to Washington, you did say they're the biggest fade in the NFL on their eight and a half over under total. Who's close? I mean, you've already explained why you think they're a fade,

but you said they're the biggest fade, and for those that don't understand that, it's the biggest short. He's not buying long on Washington. He's shorting Washington. You said they're the biggest fade in the league. Who's close to him on win totals? Yeah, I mean, there are other teams I'm not that high on.

In fact, this season with all the COVID stuff, I am like under on a lot of teams. I think New Orleans at nine wins, that's a really high mark for them. They do have a Hall of Fame coach, which I think helps. Miami and New England are at nine and a half. I'd probably think about under on those two teams as well. Pittsburgh, interestingly, also an eight and a half win total team, but the market is shading Pittsburgh under eight and a half versus over eight and a half

when it comes to Washington. So those are some teams. But for Washington, again, it's more that to your point where you said, the media is falling in love with this team. And I think we're all going to come up for Aaron and be like, how the heck does this happen? It's like, well, it's pretty actually easy to see how this could happen. And here's why. And I just wanted to sort of get out in front of that.

Because, again, like, I don't want them to fail. I think the league is better when Washington is good. But there are markers here where I'm kind of like, are we moving a little too fast here? And if you're watching this football team fan, I think you'd rather win 11 games or three games. you would 90. Given the quarterback is where it is. You're very sweet, by the way, to say, I think it's better off when Washington wins like it's 30 years ago. I mean, look, I'm a born and raised Washingtonian and a lifelong fan and have lived, you know, and lived through the glory years when Washington was, you know, a relevant NFL franchise. But they're not anymore. Even though,

you know, if this is what you meant, it is better for the least. if the team in Washington is good. It's also better when the NFC East, which is really probably the biggest brand division in the sport. It's better that it's got three double-digit win teams versus what it had last year because very often the Washington, Dallas or the Dallas-Philly games are the highest-rated games of the year on television.

So I know that's always a good thing. By the way, I was just looking at one of the two or three sites, that I have. I've got Washington over eight and a half minus 145, which pretty much confirms, which, you know, what we're saying is that, you know, there is definitely, you know, a ton of people that have bought in to them. I remember what I was going to say to you, and you talked about quarterbacks, you know, when it comes to schedule. And I think it's a really important point because in the conversation about their upcoming schedule and just the litany of not good quarterbacks, but great quarterbacks. I mean, they have, you know, they've essentially got 11

games against debatably the top 11 or 12 quarterbacks in the NFL. And beyond that, Eric, these are dynamic offenses. You know, they get Keenan Allen in week one. They get digs in week three. They get, you know, Thomas, if he's healthy, the Kansas City group, Devante Adams, you know, the Tampa group, you know, Metcalf, like the list goes on and on. The Dallas receivers twice. You know, they're playing dynamic offenses, but I think your point about you can sort of look at the schedule based on the quarterbacks that they're going to face, because while quarterbacks do get injured and they derail seasons, it's less likely than other position groups. And so when you look at Washington, they could be an improved team, right? They could be an improved team with maybe an additional win, courtesy of the 17th game to get them at 8 and still not end up in the post.

postseason or still from a perception-wise look like they fell short. As well said, right, they could even win fewer games but be better fundamentally. You could come out of the season feeling better about the team, and they could be six and 11, like, you know, in a weird way. I don't think people would be happy with that, but you could look at and say, well, it's actually a better team. They just, you know, lost a bunch of close games to the Tom Brady's in the world, you know, whereas last season they won some close games against the, you know, the, you know,

Nick Mullins is in the world. You gave me the list of teams that are comparable to Washington in your own mind in terms of, you know, who you'd short, who you'd fade. Who do you like? Who are you going long on based on a favorable total number? I like the Jets this year. I think people, I like that, Wilson. I like the fact that they're number six wins.

You get a little bit of a plus price there going over that. Salad to me is a really impressive guy as a coach. He also is taking over for a guy who I think is about as bad as you get at that spot. So to me, I like that. I like the Jets. partially, I mean, look at that division. Miami is a team last year that was first in turnover of force, but like 25th or something in yards for play aloud on defense.

Everybody talks about that defense. Like, it's great. I think it's more of like a noisy defense than anything. two is a big question mark there. New England, I think, is question marks a quarterback, but also Stefan Gilmore still hasn't practiced at all for them. And then Buffalo, I think it's probably the class of that division, but there are fragilities there associated with COVID. I think the Jets are a team that will sneak up on the people this year and will wonder why, come December,

why they're playing compelling football games. But I think the pieces are in place for them. You said earlier that you sort of like the Giants. Do you like that number at seven and a half? You clearly do, right? Is that an overplay for you? I would play over that. I'm not as strong on that as taking more of a long shot, though, on the division. I think there's a universe where they actually, they're more competitive for the division than they are competitive for that over.

Yeah. You know, it's interesting in thinking about the NFC East. last year and talking about quarterbacks and the importance. I mean, the NFC East was devastated quarterback-wise. Dallas played four quarterbacks last year. Washington played four quarterbacks. Philadelphia played three quarterbacks. The Giants played two quarterbacks.

If you have relative normal health in the division, it should be improved. Do you agree? I think so, for sure. I mean, it's hard not to be improved. Yeah, the only one that I think is a little bit leaky is to the J.L. Hurts. I don't think Jalen Hurts was a breath of fresh air relative to Carson Wentz, and that made us overlook the fact that he still wasn't all that great last year. And it came up, he was dreadful before he got Ben Shreda's Huddfeld in that week 17. Yeah. Eric Eager is our

guest from Pro Football Focus. One more, and it'll be back on Washington. You also, in your conversation on your podcast, you got after Ryan Fitzpatrick a little bit. Now, you know, netting it out, they've got a better quarterback situation this year than they did last year. But again, like the NFC East, that's not saying much. But what is yours and PFF's expectation of Ryan Fitzpatrick this year? I think you're going to see a little bit of regression. Like I said, I think he's played great, especially relative to career averages the last two or three seasons. But it still doesn't overcome the fact that, like, in Tampa Bay, he was benched for ineffective play.

in Miami in 19 he was benched for ineffective play. Last year he wasn't bench for ineffective play, but he was benched for other reasons. Like, we're not talking about a middle-the-pack starting quarterback in the NFL, I think. I think we're looking at a guy who can compete with the best quarterbacks on any given Sunday, but also has the flame ability that, you know, you kind of want if you're Washington, because, again, you don't want to have a 500 season. and you want to put yourself in position to draft a quarterback if you're not going to be in the playoffs.

But I just wonder about consistency with him. He's always a guy that turns the ball over a lot. He's always a guy who takes chances. And I think our bias with him is that he's so likable that we immediately think positive things about him. But there are aspects of his play at the QB position that long term I wouldn't buy into. I lied. I've got one more for you because every single time I have one of you guys on, especially in the off season. Give me something that you guys are studying or doing some sort of an analysis on.

If there's nothing right now, you can think of, that's fine. But there's usually something that you guys are working on, you know, how offenses or defenses, you know, match up against certain looks or whatever. What's sort of a thing that you guys are talking a lot about right now with the season, you know, still a month away. Well, the one thing that I like, and it's something where you're looking at, you know, sort of teams, you know, it's like baseball, right,

where there are certain types of baseball teams that can win 100 games, but they do it with a bunch of twos and three starters, and then you get to the playoffs and you can't win because you don't have a number one starter and the Yankees do. And, like, I think in football, there are teams like Green Bay that can win 12, 13 games just going Rogers to Adams, Rogers to Adams.

But when it comes to winning in the playoffs, depth is so important. And so when I look at a team like Kansas City, why did they lose the Super Bowl? Part of the reason they lost the Super Bowl was because they couldn't protect their quarterback, and that's a depth issue. But the other reason was is Tampa Bay seven draft picks in the secondary the last three years in the first two days of the draft.

And if you drop six in coverage and you can double team two great receivers, you need that third guy to step up. And the Chiefs last season, the Chiefs in 19, when they beat the 49ers, Sammy Watkins at 100 yards a game in the playoffs, last year is nowhere to be found. Last year, McCle Hartman was in order to be found. If you're looking for places for teams, if you're looking for, you know, hey, where is this team going to fail?

Look at the second, third, or fourth receiver positions, and ask yourself if one of these wide receivers to these teams goes down and they play in elite defense, who's going to get open? Yeah. And, well, to your point, too, in the case of Tampa, you know, if you were to lose a key defender or two, who's coming in to cover? Yes. Yes. And I think when you have as many, when you're as deep as Tampa was, by the way, at wide receiver, Antonio Brown didn't even play in the NFL championship game. Scotty Miller was the one who came up big.

But in the secondary, if you lose a guy or two, and again, that's, I think, where you look at Washington, like William Jackson's great, I think Kendall Fuller's great, camera, even, you know, even, Landon Collins is I think is a good player in his role. How fragile is that? Like when you look at corners three, four, and five, are you comfortable with those guys? Because the injuries are the name of the game in football. And especially when you play great quarterbacks,

you don't get to say, hey, you only get to throw at William Jackson today. You know, Todd Brady is going to find corner number three when he's trying to be corner number two. And, you know, he's going to exploit that. So depth, fragility is a humongous thing to look at for some of these people. Yeah, it's funny. And yet, I know that in previous, you know, PFF conversations I've had, you guys put this tremendous emphasis on coverability versus pass rusher, whereas, you know, old school thought is, you know, it's get after the quarterback and you can make, you know, an average corner,

you know, a really good one. And yet in that Super Bowl, it was all about making Mahomes uncomfortable. Yeah, I think, right, but I think that the big underlying thing is if you watch the game back, Mahomes, when he hit his back foot, was not having guys open, right? And so coverage really does speed into pass rush in the sense of if you can make a quarterback hesitate a little bit, then having pass rushers like Pierre Paul, Bita Vea, and Jack Barrett really do come into play, whereas I, as a chief fan, I remember distinctly, the 2018 A, championship game. Chiefs led the league in fact that your highest-graded defensive line in football, and Brady got the ball out in 2.18 seconds, and they didn't touch them one time.

And that was because their receivers could get open against the bad chief secondary in two and a half seconds or less. So it's very symbiotic. I do think somebody like Chase Young is probably more valuable than the most valuable corner. But if I had to choose between one elite pass rusher and a secondary full of decent players, I'll take the secondary full of decent players, because I think if they can make the quarterback hold on to the ball, two-tenths of a second longer, I can get an average pass rusher home. Yeah, and you know, you're talking about, you know, lots of West Coast, lots of, you know, lots of RPO to combat, you know,

dominant pass rushes, as we've seen in recent years. Really enjoyed the conversation again. Wish you the best. Eric can be followed on Twitter at PFF underscore Eric. Eric with a C. He and the guys do a great job, obviously, covering the league. And we'll talk soon. I appreciate your help. Thanks for having me on. Take care. Thanks to Eric for coming on the show. We'll have plenty of those discussions between now and the beginning of the season, not just on Washington, but on the rest of the league as well. All right, that's it for the day. Back tomorrow.