The Kevin Sheehan Show - Good News On JD + Det/Wash Preview
Episode Date: November 7, 2025Kevin opened by looking back nearly ten months ago to the last time the Lions and Commanders played in the NFC Divisional Playoffs. The news is good on Jayden Daniels...no surgery required. Kevin had ...his keys to an upset win over the Lions on Sunday along with a prediction. Some Maryland-Georgetown thoughts in there as well before Jay Gruden jumped on with his take on where Washington and Daniels are right now. Jay also had his "NFL Lock of the Week" which has won 3 out of the last 4 weeks. Kevin had 12 "Smell Test" picks including one for tonight. The show finishes up with Joe Yasharoff's conversation earlier this week with Art Monk. For all your football betting needs: DCRELOAD at MyBookie for a 50% Deposit Match Want to spruce up your lawn? FastGrowingTrees.com Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Transcript
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You don't want it, you don't need it, but you're going to get it anyway.
The Kevin Sheehan Show, here's Kevin.
Second and long.
Got some pressure, and left some cry.
Ah, it's intercepted, picked off by Paul Martin.
Martin almost some blocks.
It's out of the 20.
So going.
Martin picks six.
That'll do it.
The one seed goes down.
The commanders on their way to the championship game.
Not even 10 months ago, January 18th, Ford Field, Detroit, Washington in a stunner,
45 to 31 over the top seed in the NFC playoffs, Washington to its first NFC title game
a week later in 33 years.
Do you remember what was missed on that Kwan Martin?
interception return in the second quarter that gave Washington a 10-point lead.
I'll remind you here in a moment.
The show's presenting sponsor is always Windonation, 86690 Nation,
windownation.com.
In this opening segment, I'll have keys to what would be a monumental upset on Sunday
at home against the Lions, a prediction as well.
Jay Gruden next segment.
And then I will have my smell test.
in the final segment, 12 picks this week,
including a pick for tonight in college football.
And we'll finish up the show with Art Monk.
Yeah, you're going to hear from Art Monk at the end of this show.
A friend of mine, a longtime friend of mine,
got Art Monk shortly after his jersey was retired.
You don't get to hear Art Monk a lot.
You'll hear him on this podcast today.
Yeah, I was thinking about January 18th, 2025,
and how it was, without question,
for a generation of fans of this team,
the single biggest moment,
certainly the most memorable game.
Going to Detroit as a six-seed,
having beaten Tampa Bay in the wild card round the week before,
Detroit, a big favorite,
the incredible regular season,
the incredible home field environment hostile.
You know, no Washington fans really like there were the week before at Tampa.
No one expected this.
Although, you know, heading into the game,
we knew that Detroit was vulnerable defensively.
They had had a rash of injuries on the defensive side of the ball,
and Washington was rolling on offense.
But still, the idea that Washington would make it two in a row on the road
with a rookie quarterback seemed insane.
The Kwan Martin pick that made it 24 to 14,
Frankie Louvre nearly decapitated Jared Gough
and got away with it, no call.
I mean, it was a helmet-to-helmet block on the return,
almost unnecessary.
Remember, Jared Gough missed a few plays in the next series.
Teddy Bridgewater came into the game briefly.
But wow, that night, it got me to,
to go back and pull up my post game notes from that late night and early morning when I came in
here and did a podcast following that game. I keep all of my show notes, my post game notes.
I don't keep all my show notes for every show, but I do have most of them over the years
for kind of the post game shows. And what stood out to me about my
reaction in the moment was that it wasn't what it was for, say, a younger audience that had never
seen this team threaten a Super Bowl and had had to live through the dark ages, the reign
of Snyder and the reign of terror of Dan Snyder for all of those years and never really
had a moment, you know, never had a winning moment. There were, you know, regular season games
here and there and a couple of playoff games that got people excited, but they didn't win.
any. I mean, you had to go all the way back to January of 2006. It had been 19 years since they
had won a playoff game, beating Tampa in January of 2006. And then the week before, that was their
first playoff win since that win in 2006. And then to back it up, though, in such dramatic fashion
in terms of being such a big underdog and it being so unexpected. And the atmosphere in Detroit
that night and to go in there and to win a road playoff game like that.
For my boys who like the team, that's their moment.
You know, for a younger fan, that's their moment.
And look, for a lot of you even older, it's like that can barely remember the glory years.
That was your moment.
For me, it was really thrilling the way they did it.
But in looking back through my notes, I remembered what I was mostly focused on in the reaction
to the game.
And I think it's sort of appropriate to bring this up now because many people don't feel this way right now about this particular player.
But I wrote down in my notes, I'm feeling great about this win, but what really has me completely beyond, you know, belief is how good Jaden Daniels was.
And I wrote down, I can't believe how good he was.
I can't believe that he's actually already one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
It's one thing to have a night like he did in Tampa.
But at this point, after two of these games, is it nuts to say that he might be the best quarterback in the league?
And I said, you know, not named Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, or Jackson.
And, you know, I had all these notes from, you know, the game.
And, you know, some of it I certainly remember.
It's hard to forget.
He accounted for 271 yards in the first half alone when they rolled up 31 first half points.
They didn't punt.
They only were taken off the field once.
And that's when they took the ball out of Jaden's hands and gave it to Mariotta on the opening drive on fourth and short.
and Mariotta didn't get it.
You know, they botched the thing in the backfield, and, you know, there it was.
He was utterly sensational.
I mean, he had been sensational all year long.
He was incredible in the Tampa game.
And then to do that in that environment, you know, it was almost like one of his LSU games in the first half, 31 points, 271 yards.
And, you know, the second half, the game never got to, you know, a,
one score situation.
So it wasn't like they needed to keep their foot on the pedal completely.
I mean, you wanted them to.
The score did get to 31, 28, but then it was 38, 28, 48, 48, 45, 28, and for much of the
fourth quarter, yeah, there was always the possibility Detroit with their explosiveness
could make a run back.
But Washington pretty much could name the number, and he was incredible.
And what I was saying post-game wasn't out of bounds.
It's not like most of you didn't agree with me.
You couldn't believe what we had watched.
I couldn't believe what we had watched all season long we felt that way.
And then there he was, you know, the sixth rookie quarterback to make a championship game,
but the only one of the six that did it based on him carrying the team.
Flacco, Sanchez, Purdy,
Sean King and Rafflesberger
had done it previously as rookie quarterbacks,
but they leaned on defense,
leaned on a running game,
or leaned on both.
Jaden carried the team to 14 wins
in the NFC championship game.
They had a terrible defense,
certainly against the run,
and it wasn't like he had a phenomenal supporting cast
on offense,
although let me just point out
that one of the things from that,
that game that, you know, gets forgotten a little bit is how well they ran the ball.
Jaden was 16 of 51, 16 carries 51 yards.
But Brian Robinson, Jr., 15 for 77, averaged 5.1 yards per carry and two touchdowns.
And then Austin Echler, six catches for 47 yards, 7.8 yards per carry.
Echler also had four catches for 41 yards.
I know that the expectation of having Austin Echler for an entire season was unrealistic coming off the two concussions.
But there was no doubt that last year, and it would have been the case this year,
Austin Echler and the lineup would have been a difference maker, no doubt.
By the way, there were other big difference makers that night.
Diami Brown, six catches 98 yards in the game.
And, you know, you had a guy that didn't produce necessarily big in that game,
but was big all year, Zakias, Crowder in that game, two catches, 25 yards.
Terry had, you know, the catch and run for 58 yards, which gave them the lead that they never gave up.
You know, the other thing, too, and just looking back at the game, I remember, you know, saying,
I can't believe they took the ball out of Jemir Gibbs' hands.
14 carries for 105 yards, 7 and a half yards per carry.
But at halftime, he was averaging 10 yards per carry, two touchdowns.
And Washington got a break with David Montgomery coming back.
They felt compelled to play Montgomery in his first game back from injury,
and he just wasn't Jemir Gibbs in that game.
They couldn't stop Gibbs.
And if they never took the ball out of Gibbs' hands,
they wouldn't have ended up with five turnovers in the game.
Remember, Jared Goff had three picks and a fumble.
And then the other turnover was the James and Williams double pass.
I don't know why they tried that,
why they would feel compelled to do that or that they needed it.
But that was Ben Johnson and some of the real creative stuff that he came up with.
But Brian Robinson, Jr., you know, nobody really sweated it when they traded him, right, over the summer.
And at that point, everybody already was like, you know, here comes Bill, Kroski Merritt, we don't really need him.
But he was big in that Detroit playoff game, really big.
He was big in that Atlanta game that clinched the playoff.
spot. He had moments last year. You know, he rushed for 800 yards in the season. And he had
him, you know, in some big spots, you know, had them in some really big spots. Week two in that
game against the Giants, if you recall, you know, he rushed for 133 yards, a game that was
decided by a field goal. You know, I mentioned the Atlanta game and certainly the Detroit
playoff game. Echler, you know, so big. So many pieces missing from last
last year's team that, you know, when you think about it, it's like, okay, nobody individually was
like, oh, you were going to miss them terribly. But, you know, Diami Brown and Olamidi Zekees and
Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Echler, probably along with Diami. You know, Echler missed a lot of games,
understood, you know, with the two concussions. But man, when he played, he was dynamic for them.
I thought they were at their best last year when he played and was healthy. You know, that
Cincinnati game was, you know, that he ripped off that big touchdown run in the first half.
He was awesome in a couple of games against Pittsburgh in the loss.
He was great.
And, yeah, he was, you know, he had four catches in the Tampa game, had seven catches,
had five catches in the Philly championship game.
But whatever.
Seems like a long time ago, doesn't it?
And when this game came out on the schedule, obviously, we thought this would be.
a significant game in the NFC, but it isn't. Washington's 3 and 6. Detroit, just 5 and 3 off of their
loss last week to Minnesota. And so they need this badly in those standings. I mean, the NFC North does
not have one team with a losing record. You know, it's Green Bay 5, 2 and 1, Detroit 5 and 3, Chicago, 5, and 3,
Minnesota 4 and 4. The Lions need a win after
dropping one last week, and they're going to get a team that's really, really hurting right
now in Washington.
Part of that hurt, though, we got news on today, and it was really good news today.
John Kime, I don't know who was first to break it, but Kime, I saw it first earlier today,
had the information on Jaden Daniels that was later confirmed by Dan Quinn, and I'll tell
you what Quinn said, but Kime had Jaden Daniels, won't need surgery per source, had heard Monday
there was good news about Daniels and surgery, but they wanted to run more tests to make sure.
Heard he's just feeling a little sore. This is why he wasn't placed on IR. What does this mean
going forward? Don't know yet. Our good friend Ben Standing also added that, you know,
the reason that surgery wasn't needed is that there was no.
ligament damage at all with Jaden. And so all good news. What does it mean? Well, Dan Quinn
said in his presser, and he was asked about it right from the jump, he said that he'll have a later
update on Jaden Daniels. They're thrilled that, you know, this isn't season ending, that it isn't
surgery required. You know, this is not a long-term concern, but said that he wouldn't
have an update until after the bye week. So after the buy week is Monday, November 24th, right? They
play next Sunday in Madrid. Then it's the bye week after that. So the next time we would hear
from him after the post game show, or post game press or excuse me, against the dolphins in
Madrid would be the following Monday as they get ready for Thanksgiving week and a game
Thanksgiving weekend on Sunday night football against the Denver Broncos.
Really, really, really good news, though, on Jaden.
And look, as mentioned, we can have the conversation in more detail about should he
or shouldn't he play when he gets back.
But my gut is absolutely he should play.
Whether they're in it mathematically or not really in it mathematically,
he could potentially be back and be ready to play in that Denver game Thanksgiving weekend
and only miss two games Sunday in the Madrid game because of the bye week.
And that would leave six games left in the NFL season.
You know, if he comes back, let's say the week after the Denver game, there are five games left.
You just year two quarterback, I understand what's out there with them.
I understand that it puts him at risk on some level.
But they got to help him out too on that front.
So good news, as far as that is concerned.
Now, Detroit on Sunday.
So a week ago, I came in here and I told you, uh-oh, I watched Seattle.
I can't believe how good Seattle is.
And I said, it's a mismatch.
I mean, the good news is Jaden's back and he's, you know, going to have to pull a magic act,
but he can do it.
He didn't do it.
And Seattle thumped Washington.
I'll tell you what, man, Detroit isn't.
Seattle necessarily, and Detroit's really banged up along their offensive line, which could be
a real help on Sunday. And they more likely than not, I think still will be missing Kirby
Joseph, their safety that plays side by side with Brian Branch. Their defense is awesome.
I mean, really, really good. But we'll see, you know, Panaisal, Dan Skipper, some of their,
you know, offensive linemen were limited. Yesterday, I haven't seen.
today's report, but they could be missing some pieces up front. But I got to tell you, man,
they're really good on defense. I did not know how good they were on defense. We focused so much
on Detroit offensively and their weapons and their explosiveness. After watching them, I then went
and looked up the DVOA numbers. They're third in the NFL defensively in the DVOA metric.
behind, by the way, Seattle, who they just faced, and Houston is the number one defense in the league.
Detroit, it shows they are fast, they are physical, they are aggressive.
Aiden Hutchinson, I had Dan Miller, the longtime play-by-play voice of the Lions on the radio show the other day,
and I said, do you guys consider Aidan Hutchinson to be in the Miles, Garrett, T.J. Watt, Michael Parsons class.
and he made a really good point right from the beginning, and I agree with him.
He said, let's take Miles Garrett and put him in his own category.
I think that's fair.
Miles Garrett's the best defensive player in the league.
It's not close.
He, along with Aaron Donald, are the two best defensive players of this generation.
He's a Locke first ballot Hall of Famer, despite the bad teams he's played on.
So you go to the group with T.J. Watt, Micah Parsons, you know, etc.
And he said, he's definitely in that group.
And you're watching Aiden Hutchinson before the injury last year and now this year, I mean, he is impossible.
You know, you've got to block him with two.
And then guys like Brian Branch and Jack Campbell and a reader in McNeil, they are really, really good on defense.
I didn't really get that.
Now, Minnesota, you know, ran the ball.
They've ran the ball successfully.
And Minnesota had plans for the pressure.
Detroit plays a lot of man coverage from what I can tell.
I didn't look up the numbers, but they play a lot of man coverage.
And they just trust that with their front four and with the extra man pressure and
extra men pressure that they'll send, that they're going to rattle you.
And they can cover, they feel like.
By the way, you know, Minnesota has Justin Jefferson.
They have Jordan Addison.
We don't have that.
J.J. McCarthy gave those guys' chances against the pressure man coverage to make plays,
and they made several of them.
Minnesota pulled off, you know, it was Minnesota's defense that was the key,
but against Detroit's man coverage, they had players that can win in man coverage.
Our team doesn't right now.
So I'm really concerned about the matchup offensively against Detroit's defense.
They're really good.
And then offensively, we know the weapon.
they have. Again, they are injured offensively.
Guys like Decker and Sewell and Skipper and Frazier are banged up, so that's starters
and some backups. But Jared Goff, Jemir Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon Ra, Jameson
Williams, Sam Laporta, creativity still exists there. They can really get it done
offensively against a terrible defense, maybe against a banged up offensive line. The best
games Washington's had this year defensively have been against teams that were struggling
up front, especially with injuries.
You know, no Andrews in the opener with the Giants, no Joe Alt with the Chargers.
The Raiders were a mess.
They had lost their top guard.
And Washington took advantage of it.
But at the time, they had Armstrong.
They had for at least one of those games, right?
Wise, maybe two of those games.
They just don't have those players.
anymore. So we'll see. Here are the keys to pulling off an upset. And look, it happens.
Upsets happen. Last week alone. I mean, Carolina, 14-point dog, they won outright.
Minnesota, nine and a half point dog at Detroit, won outright. We know this. It happens all the time
in the NFL. It doesn't look like Washington's capable of doing this right now. I will agree with
that, but, you know, it happens. How do they do it? So number,
one for me is you've got to try to run the football. Jordan Mason last week in Aaron Jones
combined for 19 carries 114 yards, so well over five yards per carry. So Detroit is a good
defense, really good defense, but they did give up some stuff on the ground. Now, Minnesota
has the threat of throwing the football. Minnesota has two good backs in Mason and in Aaron
Jones. But Washington has, you know, a dual threat attack quarterback with Mariotta on the
field. Number one is run the football 11 on 11. You cannot come out and call 10, nine pass
plays in your first 10. You don't have guys that can beat man coverage. It's not going to be
easy. This is a game you have to shorten. You have to keep your defense off the field. You've got to
at least try to run the football. By the way, I'd be thinking about running.
Marioada on designed runs, option runs, you know, against man coverage, especially in third
and longs. How about quarterback draws? That may be your best opportunity on a third and eight,
third and nine, third and ten to get a first down. You know, throwing the football, probably
not much of a chance. You know, I think you've got to think about running the ball in situations
that you haven't been running the ball, second and ten, you know, third and seven, like I said,
third and five, third and six, you know, I want to see the effort to run the football.
I think that that is something they have to be able to do if they're going to have a chance.
And Mario does got to be a part of it.
When you're 11 on 11, that's an advantage.
You know, Detroit, you know, isn't used to that.
They faced Baltimore earlier in the year and got into a shootout.
You know, Lamar and Derek, Henry ran the ball.
Henry, remember, had a big fumble in that game.
But I think number one is run the football, run it 11 on 11.
that means Mario does got to have a bunch of carries.
And I would be thinking about running it when Detroit isn't expecting run.
Go against tendencies in this game.
Number two, they pull off an upset over Detroit.
If Cliff Kingsbury can scheme some people open.
Now, I'm not going to give you the real intense X's and O's of bunch sets and motions
and route combinations.
I am going to tell you this, though.
You know, teams that don't have good wide receivers, sometimes the offensive coordinator is able to scheme up guys opened.
And that didn't happen enough last week, clearly.
And against man coverage, I think you can scheme up more line of scrimmage stuff, screens, you know, wide receiver screens, traditional screens with man coverage, you know, chasing receivers downfield.
I mean, it's harder to run screens against zone than it is against man.
Let's see some of these screens.
Let's see some of these bubbles.
You know, by the way, like I said, third and ten, a quarterback draw.
Third and ten, you know, a screen, a bubble.
You know, let's get yards after catch.
Let's see if our guys can do something after they catch it
rather than worrying about them getting enough separation so that they can catch it.
I think this is a big game for Cliff.
I don't think he had a good game.
You heard Souter on the podcast Wednesday.
He didn't think Cliff had a good night.
I think this is a Cliff game to stick with the run, 11 on 11 in the run game,
and then scheme some people open.
Lastly, they beat Detroit if Detroit self-destructs, period.
They can't win this game, I don't think, if Detroit doesn't make a lot of mistakes, penalties,
drops, turnovers, period.
They're just not as good.
They're nowhere near as good.
Detroit's injuries up front could be a fact.
in the game. Something to keep an eye on. See who's healthy, who isn't. Penaisal is one of the best
in the NFL. I think everybody knows that. They've had a dominant offensive line. Well, if it's
banged up and we're getting backups and backups to the backups, maybe it'll be a little bit
better defensively. Minnesota really got after them because they had so many issues up front.
Minnesota's much more aggressive. They've got better defensive players. They've got a better
defensive coordinator in Brian Flores. But this is a game in which you've got to hope that Detroit
ends up with two turnovers, 10 plus penalties, three or four drop passes, you know, a mistackle
or two. Doesn't seem to happen with them. They are really good on defense, as I said. You know,
I'm going to bring this up with Jay when I have them on. One of my favorite games from the Jay
Grudenera was that 2017 game when they were all banged.
up injured. They had offensive linemen introducing themselves to teammates in the locker room before
games, you know, midseason. They lost at home against the Cowboys. Then they went to Seattle.
They were an eight and a half point dog. And in that game, they pulled off a shocking 17 to 14
outright, outright win. Brian Quick had a big catch. He was in the game. This is how injured they were.
Josh Doxon probably had the best catch of his career down to the one yard line from Kirk and they
11, 14. But going back and looking at the game, and I'm going to bring this up with Jay and see
if he remembers it, you know what was totally true about that game is Seattle handed it to Washington
in so many ways. Two turnovers, 16 penalties for 138 yards. That's what you got to get. You got
to get Detroit gets a big play to Jameson Williams. Oh, there's a flag down. And now instead of a 40-yard
game, it's second
and 20, or it's second in
16. You know, they need
that to happen over
and over and over again.
And it happens in the NFL, you know,
and they took a beating last week.
You know, the sharp money is
all over Washington right now. That line's
been coming down. I think it's
so much more about Detroit and their
injuries and the game in which it played
last week that
Minnesota took it to him.
Jared Goff sacked five
times in the game. Jared Goff in the game, you know, missing receivers because of the pressure.
You know, in the game, he was 25 of 37, you know, 12 incompletions in the game.
They got after them, Minnesota did. And they physically beat them up a little bit. So Detroit
comes into this game needing it, but maybe they think Washington could be kind of a fresher
squad. I don't know how they would think that. I'm looking for a reason why they would like
Washington and the Sharps would like Washington in this game. Yeah, they're going to be in the
smell test. The skins are, I promise you. I think that's it. You know, the injuries they have up front and
the number was too big. It's not like I think, you know, the Sharps think Washington can win the
game, but nine and a half was just too many points. So again, 11 on 11 in the run game,
Cliffs got a scheme people open. And then lastly, Detroit has to self-destruct in this game. It'd be
nice to get a play on special teams here or there, but overall, you know, this is one of those
games. If we were to, you know, fast forward to late Sunday night when this podcast comes out
post game and we're talking about a win, I bet you we're talking about nine, ten penalties,
two to three turnovers, you know, a couple of, you know, drop passes, and maybe, you know,
a big unexpected special teams return for Washington somewhere, something like that.
I also think you got to, you know, see some rushing yards, real rushing yards out of the game.
My prediction, I like Washington to cover.
I mean, it's the total anti-public play.
Detroit's the biggest public side on the board.
But I don't think they win the game.
I've got Detroit winning it 23 to 20.
Maryland and Georgetown tonight, I did, you know, a 10-minute segment on the history of Maryland and Georgetown.
the excitement for this game.
By the time a lot of you listen to this podcast,
it's going to be near tip time.
They play 6 o'clock tonight in College Park.
I'm heading out there here shortly.
But needless to say,
this is year one of a four-year commitment
between Maryland and Georgetown
and after so many years
over the last 45 plus years
of not playing,
I think this is phenomenal for the area.
Maryland opened as a seven-and-a-half-point favorite.
they're now four and a half point favorites.
So sharp money's on the Hoyas.
I was shocked to see the number that high.
I didn't know what to expect.
It's really hard to figure out college basketball this time of year.
But it's nice at Maryland and George Shuner playing this year at Xfinity,
next year, you know, at Capital One, then back at Xfinity, then Capital One.
And hopefully there will be further four-year contracts to come after.
You know, these teams played forever.
And then the infamous 1979 game at the D.C.
Armory. Georgetown won. Lefty and Big John got after each other. There was a near brawl at the
scorers table, and that was it. They played in a sweet 16 later that year, and then 13 years.
That was it. Georgetown didn't want to really play the series. John admitted we were developing a
national program, not a local program. And I thought it always took away from the area.
It was the rivalry that didn't get played for 13 years.
they had the game in 93 at U.S. Air Arena, which was amazing. Gary Williams coming off probation,
Joe Smith's debut, Dwayne Simpkins, hitting the floater in overtime to win it. And then it was another
eight years before they played, and they played that next one in the Sweet 16. Maryland won that
on their way to their first final four in 2001. They played in another holiday tournament as part
of a loser's bracket in November in 2008. And then Turge and JT3, as part of the Gavit games,
they're kind of pushed into it, but they were friendly, played back to back in 15 and 16.
Maryland won both of those games, and they have not played since. Nine years it's been
since Maryland and Georgetown played. Looking forward to it tonight, it's early for college hoops.
I get it. But, yeah, nice to see this. I've always felt it should be
a part of the DMV's sports calendar.
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in-home estimate. All right, Jay Gruden is with me as he is every Friday during the football
season, the former head coach of the Washington Redskins. So here we are, three and six off
of three games in which they've lost by 21 or more, I think most people would say, reasonable people
would say at this point, the season in terms of the competitive, meaningful portion of the season
is pretty much over. Do you agree?
Yes. No, not right now. Not until it's mathematically not over. It's not mathematically over yet.
I still think there's a chance to have enough people in that building that they're going to come out and
compete. I just think, from a personnel standpoint right now, I just don't think they have the people
to compete this year. That makes sense. But it's not over. Yeah, I'm with you on that. As a fan,
I've always been in that mode of until mathematically eliminated, let's keep, you know,
let's keep trying to hang in there until it's really over, even though the eye test would say
with this particular team right now, it's over. You know, I went back and looked at some,
something as far as your five and a half year, you know, career here as a head coach. And I found
something that actually surprised me a little bit. If we take 2019, the season that started
0 and 5, and you ended up getting fired after that fifth week, the other five years, there was
only one season in which you were truly out of it, you know, when you got to the midpoint of
the season or shortly thereafter. And that was your first season, 2014, when you were dealing with, you
know, the RG3 issues and, you know, understanding that Kirk might be the guy or Colt, you know,
at that point might be the guy because he played a lot at the end of that year. But 2015, you know,
was a playoff season. 2016 came down to the last week. 2017, you know, lots of injuries, but
there was a chance, you know, late into the season. You know, I think you were eliminated maybe
with like two weeks to go. 2018 was the six and three season. And even after the injuries to
Alex Smith and Colt McCoy, you guys were fighting to stay alive.
in the next to last week of the season in Tennessee with Josh Johnson at quarterback.
So it's not like you didn't have, you know, mathematical possibilities laid into the season
and in some cases legitimate mathematical possibilities in most of your years here.
But I'm wondering long-winded to get to this, when a season does start to get away from a coach,
like 2014 did as an example for you, and like, you know, maybe this.
season is getting away from Dan Quinn.
How does the head coach handle that when things, you know, end much earlier than expected?
It's not fun, but I think as professionals, you have to go out and compete every week,
and you're still trying to find that young player, develop these young players to help you
in the years to come.
That's the most important thing.
Who do you want to go to war with?
Not war, but do you want to go to battle with a next week?
Who's going to compete through Thickerton?
Who's mentally tough?
Who's physically tough?
who's not going to quit on you, you know what I mean,
laid down. So you're looking for those type of players
to build your culture for future years.
Quarterback especially that year was very important
for find RG3,
Kirk or Colt. You know what I mean?
I think Colt had a good game against Dallas on Monday night.
We beat them.
Right.
So it was still, we're still had a lot of uncertainty
at the most important position in sports.
That was the biggest issue we had that year.
Yeah, and, you know, again,
that was the only season in the five complete seasons
that you coached here in why.
Washington where you guys were, you know, legitimately out of it with with several weeks left
in the season. But, you know, whether it was that year or another year in coaching as an
assistant, I'm wondering, you know, about this conversation that eventually takes place,
I would assume, you know, between the head coach and between the front office, the general
manager and his staff, with, hey, we are pretty much out of it or we are now definitely
out of it, you know, and the idea, Jay, of, you know, developing young players and getting them
onto the field versus doing whatever it takes to win the game that's in front of you.
Like, how do you think those conversations are going to go, let's say, between, you know,
Adam Peters and Dan Quinn?
I think the biggest decisions they're going to have with guys like Bobby Wagner, who's
on one-year deal, these older players that are the veteran players who are on their last year,
their contract, you know what I mean?
Yeah.
Eventually, they're going to have to find another linebacker.
They've got to have a linebacker in a house and young.
We've got to get out there and play a little bit,
see if they could, you know,
he's the guy that can be on the roster
in the next year instead of just run down on kickoffs.
Those are the tough ones you're going to have to deal with.
Other than that, I think the guys under contract,
you're going to play.
The big thing is also,
if you have some practice squad guys,
you want to see play,
you're not going to try to jeopardize the game
or the integrity of trying to win the game,
but there is a point in time
where you've got to try to look at some of these players
that there's no better time to look at a player,
than in the stage of a game on Sunday.
You know, you can look at them and practice all you want to,
but how do they play under the light?
You've got to have, you've got to utilize that opportunity moving forward.
But it's tough to sell to your team because still you're trying to compete and win games.
And, okay, hey, we're going to sit Bobby Wagner this week.
We're going to play Bill Jones.
You know, he's a practice squad guy.
Oh, hell, no.
You know what I mean?
Well, they're playing a lot of those guys anyway at a necessity right now.
Yeah.
So I think usually when you're out of it this early,
usually you are playing young guys at this time anyway
because your good players are hurt.
But yeah, it's tough.
You just got to manage it.
You're still trying to win games,
but you're also trying to develop players.
There's an interesting conversation that at least, you know,
I'm having with some, you know,
of the listeners in my audience about injuries.
And I've said over and over again,
look, injuries aren't an excuse in the NFL.
They're a reality.
They are, you know, a tough.
two impactful thing for a season. Your quarterback is probably number one, and then how
healthy you are is number two. A, do you agree with that? And then B, when it happens, like it's
happening with Washington, how do you deal with it? Well, I agree with you. It's a necessity. I
tell the team, you know, we make our final cut down to 53 band roster. We keep the practice
squad guys. I say practice squad guys, you better pay the hell attention because you're going to be
in the lineup in about two weeks.
I mean, it's just
the way it is. You know, backups, you better
be ready. I mean, you've got to
be prepared to start, but yeah, it is a reality.
At least it was for me. I'd never,
my last two or three seasons there was
travesty, how many guys have got heard.
But usually,
if you look around the league, the last Super Bowl
winners, it's the season of state, the most
healthy. I don't know how they do it.
But they do, Philadelphia last year, Kansas City,
New Year's past, they've stayed relatively
healthy. I mean, Patrick never gets hurt.
Kelsey's always available, it seems like,
an offensive line for the most part,
defense line, Chris Jones, he's never missed the game.
I mean, it's crazy.
But you've got to be prepared, and there's no really
way to prepare for it other than
making sure everybody gets enough reps in practice
where you're developing guys in training camp
and in practice to make sure when their time comes,
mentally and physically, they're as ready as they can be.
That's all you can do.
Would you have taken Jaden out of the game Sunday night?
Not necessarily.
No, I wouldn't have called his own.
agreed, but yeah, no. I think, you know, it was a great environment there. I can see it on TV,
and it started out so poorly, and he missed some time already. I want to get some positive
going into the next week with the team 12 minutes to go, pulling your starting quarterback is kind
of slap in the face. Not many starting quarterbacks to play pro football or college football
want to be taken out in that situation. They want to go down with their team and compete, try to get
a touchdown in. It was a fluky type play, but there's own read call. I wouldn't have called
his own read RPO. That was a run-pass run option type play. I wouldn't have called that.
I was just, you know, called something easy for, but, but no.
That's interesting. I didn't know what you would say to that. I played devil's advocate
with you and say most times that's probably true, but the context is he's already been hurt twice.
you're getting your ass kick, the game's way over.
You don't have anybody out there
that you can actually be successful with
on offense for the most part.
You know, call it a night and protect him
because he is your franchise.
There's context to everything, right?
I mean, but you're saying that in that particular situation,
the mistake was more or less.
They dropped him back twice on that final drive
and then they ran an RPO and, you know,
there was immediate pressure, which put him at risk.
So you would have just handed the,
ball off or called quick game the whole way.
Well, Jade should have a damn ball off.
I mean, it comes up to the field.
You got handed off.
Right.
So that's that.
But he's trying to make a play and trying to get something going, I guess.
I don't know, man.
It's just, it just stinks.
Now everybody's going to say, you're too slump.
I was right.
The injury prone, I was right.
That sucks for Jayden.
Thanks for Jayden.
Obviously, Coach Quinn put him in a bad situation,
and Coach Kingsbury, you know, it's just unfortunate.
And it's obviously the easy thing to say is, hey, should have taken about a game, stand there,
let Mariotic go in and take a beating.
But I don't know.
I just would have handed the ball off or thrown a quick game, stick flat combination,
complete or incomplete it, but whatever.
Was there a decision that you ever made in game that you really regretted?
Does anything stick out?
Yeah, two of them.
Jordan Reed in the preseason.
Right.
Yeah, we're trying to get some continuity.
I said two series in your hands.
out, and we went three and out, three and out with Case Keenum, I believe.
He goes, let us go in one more drive. I go, fine. Sure enough, third and five, we throw a ball,
Jordan Reed, he gets concussion. He's out. He never comes back. Then the Darius Keis won the first
preseason game. I said, I'm going to give you seven carries. You don't fumble. You
protect the quarterback. I'll name you the starter. And sure enough, seven carry blows me
out. So can't make it up. You can't make it up.
You know, back to Jaden for a moment. Lots of talk this week. I don't know if you saw the
Kurt Warner video, you know, analysis where for all intents and purposes, you know,
the Hall of Fame quarterback says that Jaden's regress some. He's a big fan of Jadens from last year.
What do you say to that?
I think there are some truth to that probably because of the people mixing in and out of the lineup.
You know, there's a lot of timing and things that aren't the same. They don't look the same.
It's not matching up with the concepts a lot of times. He's missing some people, and it looks
like he's missing them, but I think the receiver's not coming out on time.
And he has missed some other pros here and there that he made last year.
But I just, I just, I just can't believe how, I don't want to rip any players,
but I just can't believe how these guys aren't any good at receiver.
You know, I just don't understand it.
They don't have any separation, really.
There's really no route detail.
It's just, I don't know what I do if I was quarterback or any, if anybody, any,
if Josh Allen was here, I don't know if they're,
complaining to balls with the group that they have right now.
What about Cliff?
Is he seeing it?
Is he calling it at a level that gives them the best chance or not?
I don't know about that.
I just think a lot of us, you know what I always say it's not about the plays.
It's about the players.
I think it's more about the players right now.
You know, I still say losing Diamie Brown.
Say what you want.
He's not that great, but he had an impact last year.
So it was V.
He had an impact.
Even Jameson had some catches last year.
Those are three guys that are really.
really two guys that, you know, had a significant impact that he could go to.
Now Terry's gone, the Army's ground, gone, OZ's gone, now,
and Debo's just underneath the guy.
They don't have anybody.
Yeah.
So I don't know what we want him to do.
Zach Gertz is his number one receiver every time, and he should be his number five receiver.
Where the hell is Ben's from that?
I mean, what is going on with these other players?
And where's Luke?
I know he returns kicks.
Can he get open on a...
Well, he got hurt on the opening kickoff.
and got knocked out. He's on injured. He's on injured reserve. He's another guy that just went to
injured reserve. Yeah. Golly. I know. I mean, I saw we've had Robbie Chosen playing a couple
years ago, is that Robbie Anderson? You've got to be kidding me. Isn't he like 50? Yeah, exactly.
And then you got the kid from Tennessee, Trayvon Burks.
Holy Macro. I know. Yeah, I don't know. I think it sounds kind of morbid, but I'm kind of glad
that Jayden's hurt this year. It was just so it's dislocated.
get them hell out of their rest, get them in the wait room and get ready for next year
with to beat better cast the characters around them.
I don't think Jayden would have had much a chance the rest of the year.
That'll be an interesting conversation.
We'll say that.
You know, if he, there's still no, as we're recording this today on Friday,
there's no definitive word on how long Jaden will be out.
But if it isn't for the season, we can have that conversation when he's back and cleared
and practicing again as to whether or not he should play if they're like three in nine
or three and ten.
By the way, these conversations that we're having about offense seem a little bit debatable.
The defense rate, there's no debate.
There's no hope right now defensively.
I don't know.
We kind of knew that coming in.
We're hoping a secondary would hold up for the lack of pass rush.
But then you lose Armstrong and you lose wise.
And now you have absolutely no chance.
You're counting on Von Miller who's 39 years old.
You know, has, yeah, we have no chance.
It's unfortunate.
it. They got a blitz, and now your secondary can't hold up.
So it's going to be a struggle. They're going to be with Cincinnati.
They're going to be with the likes of Dallas and the stat line the rest of the year.
They're going to struggle and give up a lot of points.
One of my favorite games during your era, and we've talked about it before,
is when you were down all of those players, you went to Seattle.
You guys are like an eight-and-a-half, nine-point favorite, like Sunday against Detroit.
Now, this game's at home.
anything can happen in the NFL.
I mean, that one, you legitimately had nothing.
I mean, you had Brian Quick out there at wide receiver.
Terrell Pryor was on the field at wide receiver.
I mean, the offensive linemen were introducing themselves, you know,
to their teammates in the locker room, you know, like two days previous to that.
How do you pull off like the unthinkable in the NFL?
I mean, I know it happens all the time.
But when you go into a game where most people aren't giving you.
a chance. What's the, you know, what's the coaching? It really does happen a lot. You know,
I think the most important thing is you've got to get out to a start where you're competing
and have a competitive start where everybody feels like, all right, we can do this. You know what I mean?
You go out there and you give up a quick touchdown, you're down 14 and up, and then it's
going to be an absolute bloodbath. But as long as you keep these guys involved and try to get
everybody involved in a game and game plan and have some fun, have some success. Don't turn a
ball over. You know, stay away from stupid tunnels.
you'll be in it.
Play good defense.
You know,
special teams got to be on point.
I mean,
you've got to be on point.
You know what I mean?
You can't have any mental lapses.
And then you'll be in the game.
You know,
you look at that game last night.
I think Denver should have won that game 43 to 7,
but they,
I don't know,
it was just terrible football.
Hopefully the other teams plays terrible too.
It plays down to your level, maybe.
I don't know.
You've got to rise your level
and you hope the other team plays down to your level a little bit.
That'll be close.
I went and looked at that game
from 2017, there was one thing that stood out as a major reason why you guys were able to hang in
there and then have a chance on the last drive more than anything else. Do you remember what it was?
No, what? Seattle in the game had 16 penalties for 138 yards.
Let's go. Love it. Can't shoot yourself in a foot there, Kevin.
No. Self-inflicted wounds will get you beat every time.
look, I mean, they weren't going to beat Seattle on any night, but on offense, the first
three drives, they're, you know, they're moving the ball a little bit. It's these 15-yard penalties
that end drives. So that's really what happened that allowed you guys to hang around because
they nearly doubled you up in yards in the game. In that particular game.
That's what else has to happen. You know, if you look at Washington,
before what has to happen, they got to find out a way to get the big plays because they're not
good enough on offense to, you know, go 80 yards in 13, 14 plays.
They got a, they got to figure out a way, a flea flicker or reverse something
to get a big chunk play, 30-yard game, 40-yard game somehow,
because it is a struggle for them to get, you know,
unless they pop it inside zone for 20,
for them to hit a pass down the field for more than 15 yards.
Yeah, all right.
So did we just kind of outline it?
Detroit's got to basically self-destruct for them to have a chance?
Yeah, Detroit struggled last week with their pass-per.
protection. Unfortunately, Washington can't take advantage of Detroit's crappy pass protection
last week. So, yeah, Jared's going to have more time. And Jared didn't play very good
last week. I watch that game. He threw a lot of balls low and in a dirt. He was very inaccurate
for the first time in a while that I've seen Jared throw the ball. So if Jared has another
rough day and, you know, Dan Campbell decided to go for it a lot, Washington take advantage
from field position. Yeah, we'll be in it. All right. We'll get Jay's thoughts on a couple
of the other key games and get his NFL lock of the week right after these words from a few
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We continue with
Jay. A game that I can't
wait to watch on Sunday and it'll be
in the one o'clock window
with Washington playing Detroit late
and we'll be able to watch this one is
New England at Tampa.
I know they went to Buffalo in one
and that's an impressive win but every other win
for the Patriots has been
against a pretty bad football.
team. And now they're going to get Todd Bowles in that defense. How do you see the Patriots
handling it on the road Sunday in Tampa? Yeah, that'll be interesting. You're right, because
Todd Bull's defense is going to be salivating after watching Indianapolis against Pittsburgh,
who Pittsburgh's defense has been struggling, but they got after Daniel Jones pretty effectively.
And I think you're going to see a lot more blitzing from Todd Bowles and a lot more pressure on
Daniel Jones. And I think Tampa Bay wins the ball game. I think Baker said,
two back-to-back roughs game.
And offensively, they've struggled.
I think they get back on track a little bit, just enough to beat New England.
And they're going to pressure Daniel Jones, and that might be the recipe to load up the box,
give me some pressure, stop.
Drake May.
Yeah.
And get after Drake May.
Oh, yeah, yeah.
And get after Drink Bay, I mean, yeah.
What do you think of Drake May so far?
That's been great.
No doubt about it.
He's athletic.
But like I said, last week, their past protection wasn't very good.
But I think we'll see.
Yeah, we will.
Ravens, you know, got Lamar back last week.
They got a win.
Now they're at Minnesota, and that was, you know, one of those, you know, weekly NFL, you know, big surprises as a nine-point dog last week.
They won in Detroit.
J.J. McCarthy wasn't the reason they won.
Their defense was, you already talked about Jared Goff.
But do the Ravens continue to make this run back into contention in the AFC North beating Minnesota on the road or not?
I think a couple weeks ago
everybody said Lamar's going to come back
they're going to beat that team
they've got Minnesota they're going to beat Minnesota
because they're not very good this year
but I think Minnesota's
okay their defense is pretty damn good
they always have Justin and Addison
and Leiddersteer and Hockinson
and young quarterback might be good enough
to do some damage
but I still like Baltimore I just
I know it's like three and a half or something like that
I wouldn't play that but I do like Baltimore to win
I think Lamar and Baltimore are
get back on track, and I still think Baltimore's going to win a division.
Were you impressed with Pittsburgh last week?
You know, six turnovers, and Daniel Jones for the first time this year looked like
what some people believe Daniel Jones is.
Yeah, that's what I was talking about.
I must have got off.
Yeah, that's all right.
Pittsburgh dominated the line of scrimmage, which hasn't happened to Indianapolis
Colts all year.
Their offense line's been outstanding.
They stopped Jonathan Taylor, which hadn't happened all year.
They forced Daniel Jones to throw the ball, which hadn't happened
all year, and he struggled. And that's the
recipe to beat any amount. These years said that
none, I get it, but I think other teams will look
at that and say, hell, we can do that as well.
Huge game in the
NFC West, a division that's got
three teams right now that are really playing
well. Rams at Niners.
The Niners pulled off a stunner
on Thursday night football, you know,
several weeks ago when
they were banged up. The Rams
are now up to a four and a half point
favorite on the road in Santa Clara.
What do you make of the Rams?
and Niners on Sunday?
Well, Kyle has Sean's number
based on statistics I've heard, you know,
and that's always a close game, and those guys
go at it.
You know, they've known each other for a long time,
and Kyle just has done a,
you know, I don't know what the record is,
but I think it's pretty... It's very good. Why do you think
that is? I have no idea.
You know, sometimes it's just like that. You don't play your best ball,
or maybe Sean gets a little stressed out and puts more
plays in and he should, or not enough plays.
I don't know. Who knows? Maybe.
San Fran just had the better team that day.
But I think the Rams are very, very good football team.
I really do.
And I think San Fran has got the players.
I just think the Rams top the bottom, offense, defense, special teams.
I think they are as complete a football team right now as there is in the NFL.
I really love their young defense.
Obviously, Stafford's on a Devante and Pooka and Higbee and these guys and the
Kyron Williams.
This is a good football team.
I mean, you know, we're talking about players.
I mean, just think about this.
The Rams have a Hall of Fame quarterback, a Hall of Fame receiver,
a Pooka Naku who might go to the Hall of Fame.
You know, they've got all these players.
You know what I mean?
It's just...
Yeah.
I agree with you.
There's not many of them in the NFL, and it's just, I don't know.
They're throwing a Chris Jones or whoever the hell we are.
I agree with you about the Rams, but I also think Seattle's right there with them.
Do you agree or disagree?
Yeah, yeah, it feels very good, too.
I just, you know, Sam Darnold has got to do it in crunch time.
He hasn't had many opportunities to do it, but yeah,
I agree. I think Seattle is a very good team.
There's Philadelphia, obviously.
So there's teams that have good office defense special teams that are going to,
and they're rising to the top.
You can just see it.
You know, there's going to be six or seven teams within the next three weeks
that are going to be clear-cut favorites to be an NFC-A-FC championship
with Super Bowl winners.
Well, a big, you know, move in the right direction might come on Monday night
with the winner of Packers hosting the Eagles.
I mean, we already talked about, you know, anything can happen in the NFL.
Carolina goes to Lambo and wins.
By the way, I don't think Carolina is a fluke.
They're really good on both lines of scrimmage.
Have you watched them at all?
I have watched them, and before the season, I thought they would be competitive in the NFC South.
I really did.
Then they had a couple disgusting games, and Bryce didn't look very good, and then he looked okay.
Then Andy Dollar can't have.
Like, this Carolina seems the damnedest thing I've ever seen.
I beat Atlanta 30 to nothing, and then they get smashed by Buffalo like they've,
never played football before. Then they come back and beat the Packers. I'm like,
oh, who, what the hell? It's hard to figure out the Panthers. I would not play against the
Panthers. I would not play with the Panthers. Eagles Packers at Lambo Monday night. Eagles off
the byweek Packers off that loss. Packers are a one and a half point favorite.
Yeah, I think Eagles are better. Tucker Craft injuries are a lot more significant than people
probably understand with his ability to block and beat Jordan Loves Outlet. I know Jordan is going to come out and try to
play better, but they couldn't protect
at all against Carolina. Carolina is not, defense is not
that great now. They're not the doomsday
defense for God's sake. They couldn't block for Jordan
Love, and Jordan Love is, I think, right now, in a bad
place, confidence-wise.
You know, a lot of good things are going to happen
for him early, for
them to have a chance. And if Philadelphia
can have some positive things
happen on the road early on, I think Jordan
level feel of pressure and struggle.
All right.
Three out of the last four on your
NFL lock of the week. You were on fire.
You had the 49ers last week.
That was my one loss and my smell test.
I went nine and one last week on my picks,
and my one loss was the Giants.
I went against you there,
and I lost head-to-head with you on that game.
You're on a roll with your lock of the week, so who is it this week?
This is a tough one this week.
I've gone back and forth a bunch of teams here,
but I am going to go with,
I really kind of want to go to Detroit,
but that would be kind of messed up.
You can do that.
Yeah, I've got to go to Detroit.
Okay.
And maybe that's a good thing because I'm not very good at this.
So if I take the trade...
You've been good at this.
What are you talking about?
On this show, you've been very good at this.
I think Detroit coming off a tough loss, I mean, they're going to come out and play.
And I know Jared Golf and Amonair St. Brown and Jemir Giz and Montgomery,
these guys are used to win and I'm used to have success.
They're going to have a good week of practice.
I'd hate to be the team to play Detroit this week after what happened to him last week.
I really would.
I just, you know, I was hoping Detroit
it wouldn't 50 to nothing, you know,
and come in, like, all big-headed.
But now they left and lost,
tough loss.
I know Coach Campbell's going to be hard on them
in practice this week,
and their attention to detail is going to be on point.
I just don't see them having a misstep against Washington.
All right.
Well, the line's down to eight.
It opened at like nine and a half.
It's down to eight now.
So you've got the Lions Lang eight in Landover
against Washington.
And, you know, I hope you're wrong, but we'll see.
I do, too.
I've been wrong or a lot.
That's why I'm doing it.
This is what we call the happiness hedge because if you're, well, first of all,
you could actually, you know, laying eight, Detroit could win the game by seven.
You lose your bet and you lose with your favorite team.
But, you know, if Washington wins outright, you're not disappointed that you lost this wager.
But it seems like a stretch, but we'll see.
Thanks, as always.
All right.
Thanks, Kevin.
All right, the smell test to finish up the show.
Plus, you'll hear some comments from Art Monk after last weekend's Jersey retirement ceremony.
That and more after these words from a few of our sponsors.
Kevin looks where the John Q public is putting their cash and does the opposite.
It's time for the smell test.
The smell test is always brought to you by my.
Booky. If you want to bet on sports, that's my recommended sports book. Go to the Kevin Sheeonshow.com
slash my bookie if you've never been to MyBooky before. And when you get to the promo code section, type in DC Reload.
That will give you and entitle you to a 50% cash bonus on your initial deposit. Now, if you're an existing customer of MyBooky and a listener to this podcast, using my promo code on your
your next deposit will give you, as well, a 50% cash bonus.
50% cash bonus means simply put, the amount of money you put in, they'll cut it in half
and give it to you as a bonus.
So if you put $300 in, they'll give you an additional $150 into your account.
You'll have $450 to bet with.
Whatever the number is, 50% of that as a cash bonus.
By the way, I was looking ahead to,
the Madrid game next week. MyBooky right now has Washington as a very slight one and a half
point favorite over Miami next weekend in Madrid. One and a half point favorite. They are
eight point underdogs currently against the lions and the total, one of the highest totals on the board
at 49 and a half for Sunday's game. Again, the Kevin Sheeonshow.com slash my bookie.
promo code DC Reload. If you're a new customer, if you're an existing customer, just log on with
your normal login information, make the deposit, and they'll ask you for a promo code. Type in DC
reload. I got this from Mike Z. Mike Z writes, Kevin, I've been on the other side of runs like
the one you're having, if you know what I mean. And I promise you, I've never cut anybody
off eventually it will turn i know you know this but make sure your audience knows this also love the show
and have listened to your smell test for years when you say you're on the side of the sports books
you are correct at least 90% of the time keep it up i'm glad i haven't had you as a customer
for the last two months so you can guess pretty clearly what mike z does for
or maybe not a living, but perhaps a side hustle.
Yeah, look, when people are on runs like this,
especially betting football,
no book is going to cut somebody off.
They know it will eventually go back the other way.
And I am on not an all-time heater, I don't think,
because last year somebody reminded me
that I think we went 13 weeks without a losing week.
And then there were a couple of hideous weeks, I think.
But yeah, I mean, I'm hitting at 63% right now.
My best year ever was at 64%.
I've had a couple of years around 60, 61.
But most of the winning seasons 14 out of the last 19 in doing this have been, you know,
in the low to mid to maybe high 50s, which is still excellent.
Don't get me wrong.
I mean, when you hear people say they're hitting at 80% or 75%, they're bullshitting you.
Nobody does that over the course of a season, maybe a couple of weeks, but not over the course of a season or even a half season.
You know, 55, 56, 57%, which is probably my overall average of what I've provided over the, you know, the last, believe it or not, 19, now 19 and a half years of doing this smell test, you know, that's really good.
That's really good.
63% is insane.
So I feel really good about it.
But yeah, I'm providing all of you with the understanding that usually this doesn't continue at this rate.
I said that before last week and went 9 and 1 last week.
And I'm now 70, 41, and 6 on the season.
So let's get to this week and see where it leads us.
So I'm going to start with tonight.
Tulane is catching.
three and a half in a game against Memphis. This is a huge game for Memphis, and they've got to
win this game to keep their chances of grabbing that non-power-four playoff spot. This number is
short. It's come down. There's sharp money on Tulane. Tulane got blown out last week by UTSA. Memphis
has been on a run. They beat South Florida a couple of weeks ago. South Florida, by the way,
looks really good to me. If they end up being that non-power four in the playoff, I think
think they've got a shot to give somebody a difficult game in that first round. But Tulane,
plus the three and a half. That game kicks at nine o'clock tonight, I believe. So there you go.
That kicks us off on Friday night. Let's go to tomorrow. Colorado has been getting crushed
recently, and West Virginia pulled the outright upset last week. I gave them out plus 13 and a half,
plus 14 in that general area. They won the game outright against Houston. I've been on the
side of West Virginia every single time this year. I gave him out earlier in the year against
Pitt. They went outright. Then the next week I gave Kansas out as a big favorite, and they
crushed West Virginia. And then last week I gave West Virginia out as an anti-public dog. This
week, they're a favorite, and they are a public favorite, laying six, six and a half. I can't take
seven here because there are too many sixes out there, and I haven't seen one seven. So,
As of the recording of this podcast, Colorado plus the six and a half.
Ohio State's a huge public favorite.
Why not?
I mean, you can't score against them.
They're laying 29 and a half on the road in West Lafayette against Purdue.
I'll take the boilers at home plus the 29 and a half.
This is a game that I've liked since the numbers came out last week.
Not only with the points, I actually think Iowa,
can beat Oregon tomorrow at Kinnick. They're getting six, six and a half. I'll take the six
and a half. Again, I'm not going to buy the half point here because there are just no sevens in sight,
and it's mostly sixes. Iowa plus the six and a half, I think they've got a chance to win this
game outright. Iowa has the most impressive loss maybe of the season. They led Indiana at home
13 to 10 with about 10 minutes to go in the game about a month or five or six weeks ago.
They lost the game 20 to 15.
This is not your last two or three years, Iowa, where they can't score.
They're very good on defense still.
Now they can score.
I think Oregon is a bit fraudulent, to be honest with you.
It would not surprise me if they lose this game outright.
Iowa plus six and a half is the smell test pick.
This next one is a bit painful because, man, Auburn struggles on our kids.
offense, man. I think I've had them on the right side and the wrong side a few times this
year. They got beat last week 10 to 3 by Kentucky. I wonder what kind of, you know, juice there is
left for Hugh Fries and company in this season. But Vandy's a major public favorite play.
I did not give out Texas last week. I was very close to giving out Texas against Vanderbilt.
I actually played Texas myself, and I got it at three. I actually bought the half point and played it
at three. So I was lucky, I mean, unlucky to push. I mean, they were up 34 to 10. They ended up
giving up three straight touchdowns. I think Vandy is going to struggle. This feels like a 13 to 10
game, you know, a 17 to 14 game. So Auburn plus seven is the play. And then I'm just calling
this right now. Wake Forest plus seven is the official smell test pick. Will not surprise me
at all if Wake Forest beats Virginia outright. Wake got crushed last week by
Florida State 42 to 7. Virginia's been getting by by the skin of their teeth. They barely beat
Washington State, needed overtime to beat North Carolina. Last week at Cal, they won 31 to 21,
a little bit misleading. They had to pick six on the final play of the game or in the final,
you know, 25 seconds. I think the ACC's been wild and upsets are the norm. I think Wake in Winston-Salem
wins this game outright, but Wake plus the seven against a heavy publicly bet Virginia team.
is the play. Let's go to Sunday. The Berlin game. The Colts are big public favorite.
You know, people think they'll bounce back. They traded for sauce gardener. I'll take the Falcons plus
the six. The Falcons worked for me last week against the Patriots. Buffalo's a massive public
favorite coming off that win against Kansas City. The dolphins have been off since a week ago last
night, Thursday night, when they lost to Baltimore, which was a closer.
game than the score indicated. Miami moved the football. Maybe Buffalo's in letdown mode.
I actually gave out Miami, remember, in that Thursday night game against Buffalo up in Buffalo,
and we got the cover in that one. I'm going to go with the dolphins again in South Florida,
plus the nine and a half against the bills. The Vikings are plus four at home. I don't know
what to think of J.J. McCarthy, but I do know this. Their defense can be really nasty, and they
got after Jared Goff and company last week. That's a big win, and this is a big game for Minnesota.
It's a big game for Baltimore as well. I just think the Ravens stink on defense. They have been
really hurt by the injury bug defensively. This game may get decided by a field goal either way,
but give me Minnesota plus the four at home. I think they're going to win the game outright.
Carolina beat the Packers last week at Lambo. The Saints stink, and they traded Rashid Shaheed.
Everyone's on Carolina this week, laying five and a half.
I'll take the Saints plus five and a half.
And as I've mentioned already this week, Detroit is the biggest public play of the weekend
and yet all of the sharp money moving this number down from nine and a half to now eight.
I've done very well on Washington over the years, whether I've had them in the smell test or been against them in the smell test.
About 62% on games involving Washington over all of these years.
I like Washington plus the eight at home Sunday afternoon.
And then Monday night, public loves Philly against the Packers who just got beat and lost Tucker Kraft for the year.
That's a big loss.
I'm surprised the Packers are favored.
Two, two and a half are the numbers out there.
I'll take the Monday night home favorite, short favorite the Packers minus the two.
So recapping.
Tonight, Tulane plus three and a half.
tomorrow. Colorado plus six and a half. Purdue plus 29 and a half. Iowa plus six and a half. Auburn plus seven and
and Wake Forest plus seven. Then Sunday, the Falcons plus six in Berlin. Dolphins plus nine and a half. Vikings plus four. Saints plus five and a half. Washington plus eight. And then Monday night, the Packers minus two. I wanted to finish up today's show with something that a very good
friend of mine sent me and said, use it if you want.
My good friend Joe Yashroff, Joe's been a part of the sports media in this town for
literally 35 years, 40 years maybe at this point.
Joe and I were interns together and then we ended up working together at Channel 5 many
years ago.
I've had Joe on the show, radio show and podcast before.
He was the lead and senior producer working very closely with Ernie Bauer at
at Comcast Sportsnet all of those years.
Joe's a teacher out at Maryland in their journalism school,
and he sent me some sound of an interview that he did with Art Munk.
There's not a lot of it, but think about this.
Art Munk has been so resistant to doing media over all of these years.
I mean, he's just a man of very few words when he was playing
and even in his post-career life.
Joe got a hold of them, and this isn't long, but I thought for all of us who are longtime Skins fans and got to see his jersey retired on a night that wasn't so good for the team, obviously, but to see 81 retired last week, here was my good friend Joe Yashiroff in kind of a brief conversation with Art Monk, but we get to hear Art's voice here. So it's a couple of minutes of Joe with Art.
to finish up the show.
I will be back Sunday evening with a post-game recap of Skins Lions.
All right, this with my guy Joe and James Arthur Monk to finish up the show.
I know it's still difficult for you to receive the attention last night.
You had the event.
So is this still difficult for you to do this kind of stuff?
Well, you know, I've never been
I've never been the kind of person
I don't like to, I don't like to be the center of attention
and, you know, to receive the accolades and awards
and stuff like that, it makes you the center of attention.
But I played the team sport and my success
is really based off the success of my teammates too.
You know, they had a big, played a big part
and the success for all of us.
And so that's why I don't like to, you know, take it all for myself,
but to share it with everyone else.
Will you harken back to some of the great moments in your career
like breaking Steve Largen's record tonight
when you're going to be feted by everybody?
Oh, yeah.
I mean, absolutely.
It kind of makes you to reflect back on your career, obviously,
and some of the key points that I've,
I've been able to do as a receiver and that we've been able to do as a team.
And it's just, you know, a lot of great memories that, I mean, I'll just never forget.
And great coaching.
Obviously, with Coach Gibbs at the helm.
And just moments of in the huddle, you know, moments on the sideline.
And we had talks, you know, when coach would talk to us, or we had to gather anybody
to, you know, if we were behind or not doing something right,
just those moments where we had to make corrections on what we were doing on the field.
And those are the things that I kind of remember the most because it's those things that
try to change the course of where we were headed, either towards a loss or towards a win.
So beyond your teammates to help, and obviously you had a great coach,
your great coaching staff, great teammates, all of that is 100% true.
But for your personal success, I know you're a really hard worker and legendary, those hills you used to run at George Mason, what do you attribute your success in your career?
Would you say beyond the teammates and the coaching staff, but just what you did to achieve the greatness?
Well, I think I just realized early on that the gifts I had were God gives.
and God-given talents that I had to be able to run and catch especially.
And to be able to go out and do that, to the best of my ability,
and to do that maybe better than some other people,
was just something that I took a lot of pride in trying to help develop
with my conditioning and strength conditioning and those sort of things,
just to make myself, not necessarily better,
but to have longevity and be able to do it.
What message would you like to give to the fans,
formerly Redskins, fans now commanders, fans
who either were old enough like me to have seen you and covered you
or maybe just to have read about you and heard about you, your exploits?
What message would you like to give to the fans tonight and forever?
Just to say, I thank you.
I appreciate you so much.
And some of them might may not have been born back then,
but I remember at times in RFC Stadium
when the fans were so loud that we could not hear ourselves
on the sideline or in the huddle.
I mean, it was so loud it was deafening,
to the point of deafening.
But they were behind us so much
and cheering us on so hard
that you know a lot of us was like what's going on you know we knew they were cheering for us but
we had never experienced that type of support and so those it's those moments that i really remember
the most about our fans really standing and being behind us in motion to the far rippin is back
looking for muck on the out pattern he's got 27 out of the 23 art book is now number one
The most prolific pass receiver in the national footballist history.
