The Kevin Sheehan Show - Howell Named QB1 aka Starting QB

Episode Date: August 18, 2023

Kevin opened with Sam Howell being named the starting QB by Ron Rivera earlier this morning. JP Finlay joined Kevin to talk Howell and lots more on the Commanders. Kevin finished up with a weird NFL occurrence last night in Philly and an interesting Redskins' story from 50 years ago in Buffalo. Go to https://www.mybookie.ag/sportsbook/ for your betting needs. Use code KEVINDC Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it, but you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Sheehan Show. Here's Kevin. Yeah, I mean, it means a lot, of course. I mean, just to have this opportunity in front of me, means everything to me. But I think all of my work is ahead of me.

And I know this is only the beginning. And I know I have a lot of work in front of me, and that's what I'm kind of focused on right now. There he is, Sam Hal, your QB1 to start the 2023 season. When did QB1 become a report? placement for starting quarterback. I like starting quarterback. I don't like QB1, but I said QB1. I don't know when that happened, but a lot of people say QB1. Starting quarterback QB1, same thing. I guess starting quarterback has more syllables. I think it does. QB1, 3,

starting quarterback 5. Starting quarterback, Sam Hal, after Ron Rivera had made the official announcement, surprise that Sam Hal would start the season as the QB1 for the Washington commanders. Lots coming up on that. J.P. Finley is going to join us on the show today. And stay tuned for the end of the show. I found something on Twitter that happened 50 years ago today and the Washington Redskins were involved. That'll be at the very end of the show today.

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over under number for Washington in a while. It is still six and a half. Six and a half is the season win total for the over under at MyBooky. The under you have to pay minus 121. The over is even money. So they're actually incenting you. to bet or incentivizing you to bet the over. So under is going to cost you a little bit more. So they're expecting a little bit more action on the under. So Washington's at six and a half. By the way, their week one opponent,

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So not a surprise that Ron Rivera announced it. In fact, I think I suggested yesterday that it would happen this morning. I think the question here, for us anyway, and there are other questions to ask, and I'll save some of those for J.P. Finley in the next segment, in the next segment, but is to just consider this opportunity for Sam and how long he gets that opportunity to prove that he's worth investing more time. Look, it is just a reality in the NFL that higher-drafted players get more of a chance

and players drafted in later rounds get less of a chance. But in this situation, it's not like he's in there at the expense of, you know, a younger player that was higher-drafted or even a big-time veteran option. We know why he was labeled QB1, air quotes, by Ron Rivera right after the season ended. It certainly seemed to be the convenient and wise PR thing to do because the season had ended in such ugly fashion with the loss to Cleveland and the head coach not even knowing that his team could be eliminated from the postseason at the end of that day. They also knew that with the ownership thing going on, they weren't going to be able to pursue

a big-time quarterback like they had the previous two years, Matt Stafford in 2021 and Russell Wilson in 2022. But I think the question that is an interesting one, in part because I think a lot of you are going to disagree with me, and that is how long does Sam Howell have to prove that he's worth continuing to invest time in. How long is his leash? I put out a poll on Twitter or my show did on radio today. And as I'm sitting here, 72% of the people said he should get all 17 games. I mean, that's amazing to me. I will give you my answer in a moment. But there are a couple of ways to look at this from Ron Rivera's standpoint, from Eric Bienemy's standpoint, and then I'm going to give you from my perspective. You know, Ron needs to win this year. You know, it's playoffs or

bust more likely than not for Ron Rivera. And probably he'll need a playoff win. So if Sam isn't projecting to be a guy that is worth investing in, say after four weeks of the season, like it's not obvious that, hey, this may be a project, but there is major, major bright light at the end of this tunnel, because this guy is showing us some stuff. You know, does Ron Bale, does he decide to punch out and say, wait a minute, we've got a pretty good football team. I'm paying $8 million a year for a safety net with Jacoby Brissette. Let's go be competitive for the final 13 weeks of the season because I can't go out, you know, four and 13 with a guy that isn't projecting to be a starting quarterback in the future in Sam Howe. So Ron's got his perspective, right? He's

got a win. Unless you subscribe to the theory that Ron is kind of one foot in and one foot out right now. Like he's got a foot out the door because he kind of realizes that, hey, he's had a nice run as a head coach in the NFL. He's been a lot of money. doing it, made a lot of money here in Washington. If he doesn't get the fifth year, he's still going to be paid for it. There's new ownership, which automatically puts him on the hot seat, unless you are a bona fide, you know, big-time elite head coach, which he's not. I think he's somewhere in the middle.

I don't think he's near the bottom like a lot of you do. Ron Rivera is a respected NFL head coach. He's been around for a while. But if you subscribe to the theory that maybe he's okay with the career, coming to an end, maybe he just relies on Eric B. Enemy to make the decision. But that's where you get to an interesting situation as well, right? Because Eric B. Enemy, this is what I've come up with, and maybe you have another path to him continuing to be thought of as a potential head coach

somewhere down the road. But I think one of two things needs to happen for Eric Bienermy. year. The first I'll get to is, you know, deals with Sam Howe. Like if there is clear evidence at the end of the season, and it is obvious to everybody that has watched with their own two eyes, that Sam Howe has a bright future, even if the team's record isn't that good, then everybody is going to give Eric Beane me all of the credit for that, or a lot of the credit for that. If Sam Howe progresses and develops into a guy at the end of the year that we all believe, and everybody believes by watching him,

it may not even be reflected in overall, you know, season statistics because maybe he really comes on at the end of the year. It may not be reflected in the team's record, but everybody that's watched knows, yeah, there is something to this guy, and what a great job in developing him during the course of the year. B' enemy wins, if that happens. The other way Bienemy wins is if the offense is significantly improved from where it's been recently, regardless of which quarterback leads it.

This offense has been substandard for five plus years. If Bianami comes in and this offense improves to, say, top half of the league, he's going to get much of the credit for that. And by the way, if we all assume what we've assumed all along, and that is that this team's pretty good with the exception of the question mark at quarterback and the question mark, you know, also at the offensive line, but that the defense is exceptional, then an improved offense, a significantly improved offense, is likely going to lead to more wins,

you know, and playoff contention. So Eric Bianami wins. by developing a young quarterback, regardless of the team's record, into something at the end of the year that everybody believes has a future as a top half of the league starter. Even if he's not there yet, he's trending towards that. Or he benefits from an offense improving significantly, regardless of the quarterback,

and it leads to a competitive football team and maybe even a playoff football. ball team. Because I think if they haven't improved a significantly improved offense, I think they're going to be, you know, in that nine win area and a potential wild card team. I don't see them as a better team than Philadelphia. And I'm not even sure about Dallas or the Giants. I actually, in some ways, I actually have more faith in the Giants because a dable, I guess, versus McCarthy. But those are the two ways Bianami wins. And then we get to sort of how we feel.

And I'll speak for myself. I'm not giving Sam Howe a long leash, like a season long leash. That doesn't make any sense to me. But I do acknowledge that there is subjectivity to this conversation. Because if you are a believer in Sam Howe, like you've been a believer in Sam Howe going back to North Carolina, then your mindset is they've made the right call, they're going to be proven right by this call, just be patient with them, and it'll pay off.

I don't feel that way. I have no idea what Sam Howell is going to become. None. And so I'm not of the mindset of giving him 17 games. You know, if I see with my own eyes and I believe like there's a strong lean, that, uh-oh, this guy just doesn't have it. You know, if he had been a first-round pick, I'm going to invest more time.

Like with Dwayne Haskins, I was willing to give him 17 games in 2020 and wanted him to get 17 games because they had picked him very high. Also, let's keep in mind that that particular season, they didn't have a good team. So it wasn't going to be a team that contended for even a seven-seed. so, you know, I wanted to see him. And by the way, they didn't have anything else, you know, on the team in 2020. I mean, it was what's his face from Carolina that they had traded a fifth round pick for. So I'm not giving him a season-long leash.

Now, my guess is that he's not going to stink it up so badly in the first four to five or six games. so I'll probably be in there saying, yeah, let's continue with this thing, let's see a little bit more, let's see a little bit more. But I really don't know. It is possible that he goes out and he throws three picks and fumbles once in the game against Arizona and they lose. And then doesn't really improve from that point forward. And four weeks into the season, they're like one in three or oh and four, and you're like, he just doesn't have it. And maybe that's too quick to pull the trigger. But, you know, I'll point to something I've pointed to before.

And I'm going to use Ben's numbers for this, Ben Standig's numbers, from a story that he wrote two or three months ago when he did the research for basically a 12-year span between 2010 and 2021. That's 12 seasons. During that span, 74 quarterbacks were taken on day three of the drive. raft. So the fourth, fifth, or sixth or seventh rounds. Six of those 74 started more than 11 games, just six. And only three have turned out to be steady starting quarterbacks. And really, I would say two of the three, Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott. The other was Tyrod Taylor.

And he has started more than 11 games. I don't know that you'd call him a steady QB1 or starting quarterback. None of those 74, by the way, were named a year two week one starter with only one start the season before. Let me say that again. None of the 74 drafted in the rounds four through seven from 2010 through 2021 started week one of their second season with only one start in their rookie year until now. Enter Sam Howell. Look, it's not even relevant the draft status anymore. I mean, the only thing it's ever been relevant for, and I've brought it up a lot. Okay, if you're saying that to yourself right now, well, you brought it up a lot. I've brought it up just to describe, use it as a way to describe the long-shot nature of a fifth round quarterback

becoming a franchise kind of quarterback, becoming a, even a starting quarterback, a steady starting quarterback. I mean, really, it's just Prescott and cousins during that period of time. Now, Brock Purdy looks like he's headed towards that, but these are needles in a haystack. and I just have used, you know, I did something all the way back to 2000. Ben, you know, summed up the last 74 before the 22 draft with Purdy. And, you know, these are long-shot odds, which, you know, isn't the only reason. It's not the only reason. Like, look, the reason that some of these quarterbacks, you could say, and I think fairly so,

that so few day three quarterbacks turned into starting quarterbacks as you could say they didn't get fair shots. Like because of their draft status, they never got the opportunities. That is probably true for some of them. But in most cases, they just weren't good enough. And the teams decided they weren't going to waste their time. With Sam Howell, look, the situation they're in, which is having a veteran high-end back,

up low-end starter, but not a future franchise answer in Jacoby Brissette. I don't think, you know, like there's another needle in a haystack, which is Gino Smith. You know, could Jacobi Brouset become the second Gino Smith in back-to-back years? It's possible, just like it's possible Sam Howell could be a steady starting quarterback in the NFL, but the odds are stacked heavily against it. For Sam, bottom line is I'm not going to move on from Sam if they're not winning games, or even if statistically he's struggling. I expect it to be very up and down for him.

I'm not going to pull if I say me. I don't have the ability to, but I'm not going to advocate that they pull his starting job from him just based on record or stats. It's got to be, it's now obvious that he's not a future big-time NFL starter. He's not a future steady starter in the NFL. You know, how quickly could that come? I don't know, four to six weeks somewhere in that range. You know, maybe it's half the season. But if they have a strong suspicion early enough in the season that, yeah, this is a

long-term project with probably not a happy ending and they've got a good football team, then they may decide to go to Bressett. But that's, to me, an interesting conversation right now. But look, there will be so much context week in and week out around his performance. And we'll be here week by week to discuss it and analyze it and have people that are really good at analyzing the quarterback position, analyze it. Some of you, by the way, when we were having this conversation on radio earlier today, just said, look, the bottom line is the fact that Ron named him the starting quarterback

means that the lease should be very short because he hasn't been right about anybody. That is true at that position, but he did move on from Dwayne Haskins, God rest of his soul, very quickly when it became apparent that the rest of the team didn't want to have You know, Dwayne is the starting quarterback. And, yeah, the other choices were kind of made for him by injury. But we'll see. I think it's interesting. The Rivera agenda, the Bienemy motivation.

And then, you know, I personally am not up just for giving Sam 17 games. Some of you have the idea that, look, give him 17 because even if he stinks, then we'll get a higher draft choice. I'm just not a big believer that this team can tank out at like, or bottom out at like three or four wins, which is the only way you get Caleb Williams or Drake May. But, you know, there's a lot of time between now and the draft and those things will change as well.

All right, J.P. Fenley joins me next right after these words from a few of our sponsors. This segment of the show brought to you by our good friends at Shelley's back room, 1331F Street Northwest in D.C. Fall will be here before you know it. Washington business, it heats up when the weather gets cool. And Shelley's back room is one of those places where people gather to do business, seal deals, and do it with a celebratory cigar, whether it's two people or a group event. Shelly's is available, by the way, to host large gatherings of up to 250 people. We had that with Tommy's event back in the spring.

cocktail receptions to sit down dinners. Shelly's provides custom menu options to suit your needs and budget. To find out how, go to shelley's backroom.com. All right, let's welcome on to the podcast. It's been a while, but J.P. Finley is with us right now. And, of course, J.P. does a radio show with Brian Mitchell on 1067, The Fan. He's got his podcast with his guys, Mitch and Pete, called Beltway Football. You get that anywhere you get a podcast.

and he does television work, of course, for Channel 4. You can follow JP on Twitter at JP Finley NBCS. All right. So today, obviously, we weren't surprised by the news that Ron Rivera gave all of us, that Sam Hal is going to be the starting quarterback when the season begins against Arizona. What I wanted to ask you, JP, because you've been out there a ton going back to, you know, OTAs, mini camps, etc. And the easiest way to ask you this is, you know, did Sam earn it or was he just handed the job?

Maybe both. I think the only way he would have really lost it is if he was terrible and that was never the case. I also, I think perhaps maybe because it's a D.C. thing, I don't know, but like the idea of Jacoby Percette, then got a little bit romanticized. There was never a moment where you watch Jacoby play. oh, he's got to be out there. You know what I mean? Like, it wasn't, I think Sam is certainly the higher-feeling player when you watch the two of them.

He's been pretty good. And then all the off-fields kind of maturity, confidence, poised, stuff, he's got it in buckets. So I don't think this was ever, I don't think this was ever really a debate. And I think they saw everything they needed to from Sam. one thing I said throughout the offseason was something that stood out to me for how last year was if you go watch the tape from week three of the preseason last year against the Raven,

he was bad, man, his footwork was bad, his eyes didn't stay downfield. Now, I know there was some encouraging stuff in there, and fans got excited because he ran around and the stats look okay, but like that wasn't NFL quarterbacking. And then if you, fast forward to the last game of the season, week 18, he showed significant, can develop it over that period of time. And that is what I thought was the most exciting thing,

is this is a guy that clearly, like, learned and can implement, you know, what he's learning. And I think we've seen that still, like growth and development. And I don't think calling it a competition is the silly thing that Ron does every year. But Sam has earned the job at the same time. Yeah, and I think you said something at one point there. Like, he didn't do anything to alarm them. And that really was the only possibility of it turning into any level of debate was for him to really scare them or alarm them.

And those two days in Baltimore, you know, we pointed to those all off season, all of us did, as, you know, kind of the hurdle for him to clear. And it certainly felt like, and you were there, but listening to everybody talk about it, he cleared the hurdle easily. totally there was never a oh man sam threw i mean we had these moments with went last year too there was never a oh boy sam has thrown three interceptions in the last seven passes in a goal line drill you know or or dude howl fumble two steps in the last 10 minutes to practice there was never that and that's not to suggest that there may not be rough games this fall because there certainly might be but i don't know I always thought for him to actually lose this job, he would have to, like, barf on his shoes.

And you never saw any of that. He has looked poised throughout and good most of the time. You know, I had Logan on the radio show today. And Logan was around for 2015. And I remember Jay telling me this and Sean's, you know, mentioned the same thing before. and Mike always told a lot of us this. And that is, look, you can't fool the players. And if you try to fool the players, that's when the problems start.

And ultimately, that was the issue in 2015. It was over for RG3 as far as the locker room was concerned. And everybody knew, you know, Kirk was the guy that gave him the best chance. So we clearly know that the team feels comfortable. They say it over and over again. But I want you to give everybody a sense of, you know, how confident the team is in Sam, and then what kind of guy Sam is with the other players as a leader, as a locker room guy, as a worker, etc. Yeah, I mean, you're so right about that.

And even two more recent examples in the Rivera era. One, Ron made the right call. One, he didn't. But when he benched Haskin in 20, he's. I got 52 other guys in this locker room. But last year, you saw the reverse. When you went back to Carson, week 17, that team came out flat as hell,

and it's because they knew the wrong guy I was starting at quarterback. I will never believe otherwise. All right, so is Sam the guy now is a legit? I say unequivocally, yes. The dudes in that locker room are in on this. The young players, the veterans, they all believe in howl. I truly believe it.

I think you heard it last year in the locker room, not with Mike's the cameras on, but you heard it, that there were guys on the defense that thought the way he was running the scout team offense was some of the best work they were getting in practice, and there were receivers that looked the way he threw the ball. So this is not a divided, you know, there's some veterans in the corner that wanted to be per set. It's just not the case. But how nobody's Heineke from like a personality standpoint.

Just because Sam is a little more introverted, but he still has kind of the swagger and the confidence and the cool factor you want your young quarterback to have. And then he's got, he's just, then he can move. I don't know if it'll work. I can't say that enough, but it is, if you pulled everybody off the record, they would tell you. it should be out. So look, I talked about this in the open of the pod, and that is there are, you know, there are motivations with Ron and with Eric, and they may align in spots and they may not align in others, and it all leads to the question of kind of how long will the leash for

Sam Howl be. I put a poll out there It's like 75% of the people think it should be the entire season I don't But what do you think? At least I don't say until Thanksgiving Honestly

But maybe not for the whole season Because I do think if you get 12 games in You probably know But one thing Venus always says to me And I think this is real And I think you can go back and look at Certainly QBs in D.C. all over the league.

Right now, I mean, there's zero tape of him, because even the tape that exists is in the Turner system, it's going to look totally different this year. I think you've got to let him perform for a month, and then defenses are going to start adjusting to him. And once we're five, six weeks in, and now defenses are playing specific to Howell's tendencies, that's when we're really going to know.

And I think, I do think, kind of your point about Ron and the enemy, there's like divergent paths on what they're trying to accomplish this year. Are they trying to be a playoff team no matter what? Are they trying to develop a young quarterback? Because those things probably aren't parallel, right? Like, those things are probably intersecting with one another. And I think that's like an organizational question that, you know, the timing of the sale kind of hindered.

Because does Ron have the leash to have another non-playoff year, but to take lumps with a young quarterback with new ownership? I don't know that answer. But it's going to be, I think at least until Thanksgiving. But I said this on the radio. I'm curious me, like, there's a famous Supreme Court justice when he was asked about pornography, and his answer's like, I don't know how to define it, but I know what I see it.

And I think that's, like you have the smell test. This is all I test this year. We're going to know watching if this is a young quarterback taking important steps in development or if this is the guy that doesn't happen. And I think eight, nine games in, you kind of know. And especially this isn't a terrible team. A lot of these young quarterbacks is thrown on to terrible teams that it's unfair to really judge us.

This team is probably pretty good. It is possible that the offensive line is so underwhelming that we don't get a real chance to evaluate, Sam. But I'm guessing they're going to be maybe not great but decent enough that we can at least get some idea. And then you'd hope schematically that the enemy could kind of overcome or get bowel moving enough. When they go with the quick stuff, I think the line can help them to run their quick game.

And if Howell is effective there, that is huge for his development. And then you really start to wonder how much further can you progress. Yeah, you know, it's kind of what I said. I didn't use the pornography analogy, but it's actually a good one. Remember, you know, there are lots of genres in that particular conversation. So I don't know what would, you know, what kind of genre we would categorize or use as the category of, oh, that's the dude. He is something else. We know it.

We've seen it. It's probably more about hardcore or softcore. Maybe that's the way to go with it. But here's the – but I'm with you because – but this is why I think that it's nuts to suggest that you would just give him 17 games. because it's very possible after, I don't know, four to six of them, you know, probably more six, that you may have this sense that this is a major project and there's no guarantee it's going to produce something special. And with that, you know, then the team starts to feel it and you've got a good team.

And then you get into the motivations like Rivera's probably got to win. B. Enemy's got to do one of two things, J.P. I described it as he's either got to develop a quarterback. So at the end of the year, it's, hey, we know it when we see it. And by the way, how about that Eric B. Enemy in developing this guy, this guy's got a future, regardless of what the record is. Or he's got to have an offense that is significantly better than the offense that we've seen, regardless of which quarterback it's with, or which combination of quarterbacks.

with. Either way, Bianimi wins, but he's got to get one of those two things at the end of the year. We have to say, great job with a young quarterback. We've got a future with Sam Howell or, wow, the offense jumped from pretty dismal into the top half of the league. And by the way, if that happens, they probably won nine or ten games. Completely agree. I think he landed here. He landed here. And it's such a unique situation where there are multiple avenues for him, and I would even say for Rob, to say this season was a success.

Because we saw this two years ago. 2020, they had a really good defensive year. They played a bunch of bad quarterbacks. 21, they took a big step back defensively. They played a bunch of good quarterbacks. Last year, strong defensive performance, bad quarterbacks. This year, at least on the schedule, they're going to face good quarterback again.

Let's say the defense takes a big step back. but Howell proves he's the guy. That might be enough, certainly to keep the enemy his job, might be enough to get the enemy promoted, frankly, but there's also this path where Ron is like, yeah, I told you this was my guy, if we're going to work out the defensive stuff, you've got to let me keep pushing.

So I think, I asked Ron this morning, you know, because he talked about the need to discuss the decision with the enemy and with Tevita Pritchard, who I don't know if you talked to him, Kevin is a super impressive young guy. He reminds me when you talk to him about, he reminds me at Kevin O'Copp. But Ron said, yeah, we had real discussions,

understanding kind of the magnitude and importance of what a young franchise quarterback could be. I do think they're looking at the decision here, kind of holistic, like across everything. And not just a, we got to go, we got to be four and two, our first six games or we're getting can't. I think they have the big picture in mind. Yeah, look, that's fine. And maybe they both win by keeping the big picture in mind as long as the big picture produces something at the end of the year where we all look at it and we know

exactly what it is. And that is he looks like an NFL starting quarterback. Great job. because if he doesn't, and they keep moving forward with it, and it doesn't show that, well, then you could look back and say, man, you wasted a team, you wasted a season with a pretty good team. You should have made a move earlier. Look, there's so much context to all of this, and we're going to be able to watch it week in and week out. And by the way, injuries are always a possibility as well in this conversation. J.P. Finley is joining us. So let's talk about the rest of the team.

You know, you just threw out the scenario that nobody will throw out, which is, what if the defense isn't very good? It's possible because it happens more often with defenses in terms of the predictability year to year. But I really think this defense has a chance to be the best we've seen, I don't know, in 20 years, or 2005 at least. last year's was since 2005. What would derail it? Other than that, yeah. Yeah, okay. Could derail it.

The backer play has question marks, but honestly, they just don't play that in any linebackers. And I kind of think James was pretty good the last month of the last year. I think Davis degraded harshly because he's kind of said dumb stuff and dumb dumb stuff with the beating and was a first round pick.

But what could, to rail it. If you don't get a jump in production from sweat and young, and then all of a sudden Forbes has looked great, but if Forbes is this kind of ball hawk guy that's willing to take some risks

and we learn the difference between the NFL and the SEC and all of a sudden he's giving up big plays, you know, one thing people really need to be cognizant of is two years ago, there were 31st in the NFL in third down defense.

Sportsing puck, 31st in the NFL. Last year they were first. To me, that suggests that the reality is probably somewhere in the middle, and maybe their offense can help them a lot if the offense stays on the field more. But some of the volatile statistics, like defensive statistics tend to fluctuate tremendously, and I would not expect first in the NFL in third-down defense again. and they're clearly trying to generate more turnovers, but they also offensively had a ton of fumble luck

of recovering their own fumbles, and that's hard to sustain. So, you know, I think you're going to see some regression defensively, statistically, definitely on third down. If they go back to back, top third down defense in the NFL, I'll buy a new gulcher. Yeah, I mean, there is actually some consistent,

Not with them. They were 31st a year before. Not only were they first last year, they were first by a lot. But teams that have been good on third down, see the Ravens, see the bills in recent years, there is some consistency with that. So I don't know. We'll see. Look, the defense last year never had the opportunity what many great defenses have.

And that is at least a couple games playing with a two-score lead, where the other team is pressing a little bit and you can really get after it. And in some cases, that may have led to the low takeaway number because they've been low in takeaways very low for two straight years. And really for like four out of the last five, they've been pretty low on that number. So, and I know that's one of the reasons, you know, Forbes was the pick. But yeah, if they're that good on third down and they increase their takeaways, this is not just a top 10 defense. It's probably closer to a top five defense. I just think talent-wise, there are maybe five or six, seven teams with more overall talent. And that's about it on defense.

Straight defensively, yeah. I wonder if offensively we overstate the talent at times because you like the skill position guys, but I mean, I like the backs, right? But people get so excited about the running back, and I think they're good, but I think they're, I'm not even sure they're top 10 in the NFL at birthback. The tight ends are really tall, and there's a lot of potential there, but especially with this lingering thing with Logan, I think losing Armani Rogers is a big deal. The receiver position, you've got two really good ones. I think Dotson's going to have a monster year, but like the depth of wide receiver, you know, is there six wide out significantly better than another, you know, than Dallas is or something.

Defensively, I do think they have elite talent. I think I don't know that my second round pick would have been Juan Martin. I think they should have addressed the line earlier, but, like, the offensive line and your secondary, you need depth because you play at least five and often six, seven guys in a game. You need depth, and I think they have it in the secondary. I think the 2D tackles as far as a duo in the NFL with Allen and Payne I mean they're among the league's best

and not the best you sure hope young and sweat take a step forward they have real talent defensively the kid Andre Jones is turning heads man it's been fun to watch him too yeah yeah for sure Doc and I were talking about him a couple of days ago

I said to him I go you know he looks doesn't look like a defensive end because he's very tall and he's very, what's the word I used? I think I used Angular. And I said, he looks like Daniel Hunter and Doc said, yeah, great comparison. Of course, you know all of Kirk's teammates, which is pretty funny. And might be true, actually. You know, you made a really good point. You made a really good point because we do get carried away with something. I don't think we're getting carried away with the pair of defensive tackles. I think

Tarton Simmons are the only other two kind of inside guys, you know, that kind of compare as a tandem to Allen in pain. I'm sorry? The Giants pair is pretty good, too. 100%. And by the, there are a couple of other teams, too, but the giant, I mean, look, I mean, Dexter Lawrence is one of the best in the league. But you're at a point where you're splitting hairs because we're talking about.

three or four teams with elite deep tackle play. But when you said, like, I think our audience gets really excited about the wide receivers. And by the way, Terry and Jehan are really good. I think Jahan actually has the bigger kind of ceiling. But, you know, this is a position that's loaded around the league.

Like, nobody in their right mind would say, well, I'll take our group over Jamar Chase, T. Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. You know, or, by the way, hate to say this, give me A.J. Brown over anybody we have, along with Devante Smith. The guys in Miami, Hill and Waddle, you know, who am I forgetting?

I mean, you know. Think about that next weight class up of Justin Jefferson. You know what I mean? There's guys that are more elite, too. Sure. Diggs. You know, Hill. I mean, what?

whatever you want to call Debo Samuel, he'd be the best player offensively on our team. I really believe that. You know, Seattle with the Ohio State receiver, Metcalfe and Lockett. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, they're just, it's one of those positions that's incredibly loaded. I mean, it's almost the era of the Great Wide Out. And by the way, the Great Wide Out groups.

But anyway, I actually like the running back. group. No, not top 10, but I've seen them ranked near the bottom of the league. I like the running backs here. How do you think it shakes out? Like, in terms of the who plays and when?

I mean, rostered spots, I would say Robinson Gibson, Rodriguez, certainly. I don't know that, I kind of think I kind of think they're going to keep Alex Marmel, who can play fullback or tight end for you.

If you look at E.B.'s offenses in Kansas City, and you can say it's Andy's offense, you can say whatever you want, but they run a ton of multi-tight-end sets. They led the NFL and 13 personnel, and I think that loss of Armagh's really hurts. So if you're talking Logan, Cole Turner, Curtis Hodges, they like Armagh. I mean, look at, make a point Monday night of watching how often Alex Arm is on the field. I think they could attack him onto the roster. I think it's bad news for guys that I like John William's Jared Patterson

Derek Gore, a guy they signed recently I think I think the safest way to look at it is I've told the numbers before look at the last six maybe eight games of last season for Kansas City the splits between

Pacheco and Jet McKinnon. And not that it's Not that it's an apples to apples cup, but, you know, McKinnon, Gibson sure looks like he can fill that role. Now, McKinnon is a really willing and capable pass blocker, and Gibson has been fine, but not necessarily great in that capacity. And then Bacheco is such a violent downhill runner. Robinson has looked better. Shocker, you know, shocker, he hasn't been, like last year he got shot, and it impacted him. And I think we underestimate what they'll do with Robinson in the past game.

I think he's going to be more of a factor there than folks are expecting. But in general, I think it's at least a baseline cop. But the reason I say the last six-eight games is because Clyde Edwards-Hillair was involved early on last year and his usage kind of waned. But Checo was dealing with an injury. early on, and his usage, like, accelerated towards the end of the regular season and then the playoff, and I think that's kind of your best snapshot of what they're going to try to replicate. You know, you mentioned Alex Arman, and we've talked a little bit about him.

So, you know, he's not going to be a Kyle Eusecheck kind of a guy. I mean, he's not going to be a guy that catches a bunch of passes off play action and boots, you know, like they run in San Francisco. And in Kansas City, like the guy Blake Bell and the guy Burton, they used occasionally as a fullback, but not a lot. Like I went back and looked at sort of the snap counts and the touches. I mean, they don't have a fullback in the traditional sense or even in the sense like a San Francisco did.

But maybe it's something that Bieni believes in. Well, I think most of like, no, what, Kyle Sannahan has basically written a dissertation about how he feels about the fullback position, right? I mean, you've given these long soliloquies about how it forces the defense to adjust to the offense and blah, blah, blah. And it's really intriguing, and I tend to agree with that on principle. The Reed system hasn't, nobody's going to have a use check role in their offense outside of maybe six days. But I think you see a little more fullback than we have, which is basically not at all since Bill Callahan was here.

and I think they view Arma as maybe their third tight end in a lot of ways. As far as touches and like any of that, I'd keep your expectations next to minimal. I just think there's a roster spot for him. Although he was, I made some preseason predictions, and one of my calls was that Arma will score a preseason touchdown. So we'll see if that comes true. I'll get two chances left.

Speaking of that, have they discussed what the plan is for Monday night? It's remarkable to me, like last night, Deshawn Watson didn't play. Jalen Hertz hasn't taken a snap yet. It just seems teams are basically erring on the side of caution much more so than ever before. What do you think we're going to see Monday night? Staters, wise. Yeah, Rod said Sam will play definitively. he didn't provide, you know, anything beyond that.

I still think they're going to play about the first half. I think they're going to get real work. Don't know what Baltimore is going to do. Now, some of it depends on, it's like the really good version of events or the really bad version of events. If the offense looks really good, say they have two drives and they score a touchdown and a field goal, I think they'll be done.

But then the flip side of that is, if the offense looks quite bad and the line can't protect Sam, call it quits, because there's no point to taking the licks in August. Right. But as long as there's like a middle track there where they're not, you know, the greatest show on turf and it's not Carson Wentz last year against the Eagles, I think he'd be about a half. All right, I'm going to finish up with just a couple of quick, you know,

prediction questions for you, all right? Caz Allen, does he make the team and is he the returner? I was told by somebody over there more than they expected in the Cleveland game, particularly what they were most curious about. They know he's an electric player with the ball in his hands, but they needed him to catch it clean, was the phrase I was told. And they were more impressed than they expected, especially in the rain in Cleveland. What kind of season does Chase Young have?

Man, I don't know. I, prior to this stinger thing, I would have said, I thought he looked great. Explosive head in the right place. I do think there's a level of I'll show you after not picking up the option. But sometimes you wonder with Chase. Now he's got the stinger. He's missing time. Like, is it just one of these things where it does nothing?

You ever date a girl in college or something, and it should go so well, but it's always just like the timing's a little off or whatever, and it's just not meant to be. That thought creeps in your mind, man. Joey Sly will be the kicker for this team this year, right? I think so. I don't know so, but I think so. And then lastly, I've asked everybody this over the last week, week and a half, give everybody kind of a, guess on a player either side of the ball that's going to contribute a lot more than most people think right now. Okay. Either side of the ball, a player that will contribute more than we think.

Percy Butler, dude, has been pretty impressive, and Del Rio has a type where he gets kind of this young, wiry, hard-hitting safeties. And I don't know. I don't. I don't. I don't. I I think Butler's in that mold, and we saw Curl obviously break through on a major way. I'm not calling anybody else camp. And then Derek Forrest last year, I think, really pushed through. Butler's had a great camp. And, you know, we saw him grab the pick against Cleveland. And I think he's told me in interviews, it felt like his head was spinning a lot.

And he says it doesn't feel like that anymore, that he's able to just play rather than think. And I think that might be a part of. of his acceleration this fall. Thank you, as always. I know we have a golf outing at some point here in the next few weeks. We've got to get it done before we get really into the season. So I will touch base with you on that. You know what you would have enjoyed?

What? Thursday night in Cleveland. I don't know how we all ended up at this far. I'm going to blame CJ. In Shaker Heights. Yeah, in Shaker Heights, I heard. I thought we were, no, no, no. That was, they got, I had to work on Friday.

They got to do that. Oh, that's right. London and CJ played golf in Shaker Heights. Right. Okay. What are you talking about? Thursday night, we had a lot of fun. And Friday at the stadium, CJ's like,

yo, we got to finish that conversation. And I was like, about what? He's like, you don't remember? I was like, nope. He's like, okay, great. So it was your kind of night. I don't know about that. Usually, I mean, it's been a long time since I've woken up the next morning and had to try to find my car. That was a long time ago. All right, good job. Appreciate it as always. Yeah, exactly. All right, I'll talk to you soon. Appreciate it. Appreciate it. No problem. See you later.

This final segment of the show brought you by the Circa Million and the Circa Survivor pools out in Vegas. Look, even if you don't get out to Vegas and have a chance to sign up for either one of these pools, the next time you're in Vegas, if you're planning a trip maybe in the fall for a football weekend, you've got to check out the circus sports book. That swim stadium, the pictures don't do it justice. It is an unbelievable scene and set up. 4,000 it holds with lots of pools and one of the biggest HD screens you've ever seen. scene all outdoors. Imagine in the fall when the weather is actually really nice in Vegas being

there for it. But the Circa Million and the Circa Survivor pools are the biggest in Vegas. And I was out there recently. I signed up for both of them. The Circa Million, you pick five teams against the spread every week, $6 million in guaranteed prizes. And at the end of it, the person with the best overall record is going to take home a million bucks. The top 100 pays out and they've got quarterly and season-long prizes to go with all of that. The Circus Survivor Pool guaranteed $8 million to the winner or winners. If you don't know what a survivor pool is, you pick one team straight up every week, no spread just to win.

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You must register at a circus sports book in Nevada. weekly picks can be made from anywhere. So I have an NFL nugget and then a couple of stories that broke today. And then I want to end the show with something that you've got to be a certain age to remember. But I will end the show with a discussion of that, plus the highlight of one of his plays in his brief career here in Washington. But anyway, the nugget I have is from last night's preseason game between the Browns and the Eagles. It was the only game last night. I didn't watch much of it at all.

But the game started with Cleveland forcing a safety to take a two-to-nothing lead against the Eagles. Kenneth Gainwell was tackled in the end zone, and Cleveland had a two-to-nothing lead. Why is that a nugget? Well, think back to last week against why. Washington. First score of the game, we get Andrew Wiley called for holding in the end zone. Cleveland takes a two to nothing lead. I would bet in the era of modern football, that has never happened. Whether it was regular season or preseason, back-to-back weeks where the first score by the same team was a safety to take a two-to-nothing lead. Some news from today,

Judavian Clowny signs a one-year deal with the Ravens. So the Ravens, that may be the one area of their team that they're unsure of, which is pass rush. I think their defense should be pretty good, but having a big-time pass rush. But I have no idea what you're going to get from Clowny. He's getting a one-year $6 million deal from the Ravens. He had that really good year in 2021 in Cleveland where he had nine sacks, but really three of his last four years have been, for the most part, unproductive because of missed games due to injury. You know, after his career in Houston, he went to Seattle in 2019.

He had three sacks in 13 games. He did have four forced fumbles and an interception. Like, he can make some plays. But, you know, the last three years, you had zero sacks in a game. eight games with Tennessee in 2020 to COVID year. In 2021, he had a decent year, had nine sacks with the Browns and 14 games, and then last year with Cleveland, injured two sacks total, one forced fumble. So I don't know what you're going to get from Judavian Clowney, who, by the way, now is 30 years old. You know, the first pick in the overall 2014 NFL draft. I mean, three-time pro bowler.

in the NFL, had that incredible bowl game blow up of the Michigan running back when he was with South Carolina. But Judevian Clowny signs a one-year deal with the Ravens. And then the other NFL story from today, and I don't know how closely some of you followed this, but Brian Guttencunst, we know his name from the last few years, the Packers GM, says that David Bakhtiari is not getting traded. The Jets have issues along their offensive line, and there was a lot of reporting earlier in the week that David Bactiari, the outstanding tackle for the Packers during the Aaron Rogers era, was going to get traded to the Jets. You know, the Jets have some cap space because Aaron Rogers took a $35 million pay cut to clear up space. But Gutenkuntz today said, no, he was emphatic about not trading.

Boktiari. And it's funny because I said the other day, whether it was on the podcast or the radio show, why would they trade him? The Packers actually think that they've got a decent team. And I think there is optimism about Jordan Love. We'll try to get Zayb on before the regular season begins because he's a big Milwaukee and Packers guy. But Jordan Love, if he can play, they do have a good team. They certainly have an excellent defense. But with a young quarterback, why would you trade, you know, debatably, your best offensive linemen? And they're not going to do that. So I want to finish up the show with this. I saw this tweet earlier today. It was from Kevin on Twitter, who tweeted out 50 years ago today, 50 years ago today in 1973. The bills opened up brand new

Rich Stadium to a packed house of 80,020 on a Friday evening in Orchard Park, New York. Prior to kickoff, Washington's recently signed running back, former cowboy Dwayne Thomas, turned away during the national anthem, prompting an explosive wave of heckling and hurled projectiles from fans. Later, Thomas ultimately ends up needing to be restrained. from going into the stands. Now, first of all, that became, on the day it opened, the biggest stadium in the NFL. And for years, Orchard Park in New York,

Rich Stadium was the biggest stadium in the NFL. But here's what I remembered, and I saw this as one of the responses to this tweet. And I remembered it, and then I wasn't exactly sure. Maybe it could have been the next year, but I thought it was Buffalo, and I thought it was the,

opening night of Rich Stadium. That night, that preseason game, shortly after, I guess, Dwayne Thomas, nearly going up into the stands needing to be restrained from people heckling and hurling projectiles at him for turning his, turning away during the national anthem, Herb Malkie returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown. I think it was like a hundred yards. The very first play ever in that stadium was a Redskin kickoff returner who, by the way, made the Washington Redskins team coached by George Allen, who had Marve Levy, who would eventually become the Buffalo Bills head coach, as the special teams coach, the first ever special teams coach, by the way, in the NFL. George Allen was an innovator. All right. And basically,

invented the nickel defense, and it was the first to really emphasize special teams, and hired a specific person to be the special teams coach. But Herb Mulkey, who won his position on the team through, I think it was a public tryout, returned the opening kickoff. I'm pretty sure it was 100 yards for a touchdown. That was the first play ever at that stadium. They're building a new stadium, but that stadium for 50 years has stood as one of the super electric environments in the NFL. I mean, when the bills have been great, that stadiums have been awesome. All right, so I'm going to leave you with this. I could not find that kickoff return anywhere on YouTube, but I did find a game that year in 1973 against the St. Louis Cardinals.

It was the second week of the season, and the Cardinals had a kickoff return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter to take a 31 to 17 lead. On the ensuing kickoff, Herb Mulkey returned to kickoff 97 yards for a touchdown. I don't think it's the only time it's happened in NFL history, but I think at the time it was the first time it had happened, and the only time. at that point where you had back-to-back kickoff returns for a touchdown. But I found the NFL films highlight with Tom Brookshire sort of narrating the Herb Malkie kickoff return for a score in that game. Washington lost that game, 34 to 27, and they were 10.5-point favorites over the Cardinals that day per pro football reference.

But I'll leave you with that highlight, NFL film style. I'll be back on Monday. We'll preview the Washington-Baldimore preseason game Monday night. Have a good weekend. But then what had been a good game became a great one as number 24 Don Shai went coast to coast 97 yards. Shai's flashing feet made it 31-17 Cardinals halfway through the fourth quarter. Not to be outdone on the very next kickoff, the Redskins Herb Malkie, number 28, went 97 yards and 7. And there's no question that the man is one midnight flyer and a game breaker. But last Sunday it was not to be.

Jim Harden and the Cardinals were cool to the very end when they drove to add a field goal, which put 34 points on the board for them. For the stunned Redskins in Sonny Jurgerson, it was a war party they had never expected to meet. And their 27 points, which would have won for them normally, was the low side of one of the year's best games to date. Thank you.