The Kevin Sheehan Show - How's Eric Bieniemy Doing So Far?

Episode Date: May 5, 2023

Kevin today with Nicki Jhabvala/Washington Post talking Commanders' sale and plenty more on the football team including how it's going so far for Eric Bieniemy. Kevin and Nicki discussed Chase Roullier's release, who might be next, Chase Young, and what off-season move the team would have liked to have made but didn't. Eddie C. jumped on at the end of the show to give his Kentucky Derby picks.   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheehan Show. Here's Kevin. The show today presented by my good friends at Window Nation. Right now, Window Nation's offering up 0% financing for five years and buy to get too free on any style of window. If you've been thinking about new windows, I really would urge you to give them at least a chance.

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86690 Nation or window nation.com. Two guests on the show today. Nikki Javala from the Washington Post will be on with me next segment. We'll get to Nikki and talk sale, but talk mostly about the football team coming up here shortly. And then at the end of the show is our good friend Eddie C from down in Florida. Eddie C will help us preview the Kentucky Derby, the first of the Triple Crown races tomorrow at Churchill Downs. Eddie C will have his derby pick for all of you.

And I'm sure an exacta, a trifecta, a superfecta, or five as well. So we'll get to him at the end of the show. I wanted to start with just the NBA game last night. The Warriors demolished the Lakers 127 to 120. Now, I did not see the game in its entirety. I was actually last night, I was at that Fight for Children event at the Anthem Down at the Wharf. Thank you, by the way, to Howard and Michelle, Howard Gutman and his wife, Michelle, for having us at their table that was very kind to them.

We had a great time, great night. among those honored were the Washington Spirit, the women's soccer team in town, the congressional baseball game. Ryan Zimmerman was honored. Ryan Zimmerman, by the way, gave a great speech. But it was a great night. Saw so many people down there. Many of you, it was good to meet several of you last night.

And that's always nice to run into people who listen to the show. but great night last night. But I missed the first half of the Warriors Lakers game. And by the time I got to it in the third quarter, the Warriors were pulling away. But I said yesterday on the show, I really liked the Warriors laying the points. It went to 7.7.5. This was just kind of what the Lakers did against Memphis in their first series. After winning the opening game, they basically hid in game two to rest. Now, LeBron didn't hide necessarily in the game. But Anthony Davis, man. Anthony Davis is way up there on the list of the most impactful players in the game. I mean, when he is at his best, he is a top five player in the NBA. And he was at his best in game one, 30 points, 23 rebounds. Last night, 11 points, 7 rebounds in 33 minutes. And this is what happens, or he gets hurt.

Now again, LeBron came out and played well last night, but they were obliterated by a smaller lineup. The Warriors went small. They took Kavana Luni out of the starting lineup. They put Jemichael Green into the starting lineup. The Lakers apparently don't realize this going back to game one that Jemichael Green can actually shoot it. He was six and nine from the floor, three of six from behind the arc. Clay was outstanding last night, eight for 11 from Brees. behind the three point line, and the Warriors have it all square with the Lakers.

And Saturday night and prime time, I am looking forward to that one. That will be a huge, pivotal kind of a game in that series. I mean, the Warriors will have, you know, three chances potentially to win a road game to get this back on track in terms of home field advantage. I still think what I said yesterday, I think if Anthony Davis plays at the level that he played game one five times that the Lakers win the series, that they'll get to four. The Warriors might win one of those games that he dominates the way he dominated because they're that good. But I think if he can play that way five times, I think the Lakers will win the series. And I picked the Warriors

before the series started. I'm not hedging. I'll stick with my Warriors pick in seven games. but Draymond guarded Davis last night, and it's a different cover for Golden State. Kavana Luni really isn't, look, he's a tremendous rebounder, a tremendous offensive rebounder, but he just doesn't have the feet to be able to stay in front of Anthony Davis, not as, you know, when Davis takes him out to, you know, 15 feet. And Draymond does. Dremont's just an incredible defender. He had an outstanding game last night, Dremont, did 11 points, 11 rebounds, nine assists, a steal, and did a phenomenal job on Anthony Davis.

But that series resumed Saturday night, and that should be one hell of a game. Before we get to Nikki on the show today, I did want to mention something real quickly that I saw on CBSports.com. It was a story written by Cody Benjamin, where he ranked. to all 32 quarterbacks in the NFL. All of the 32 that are projected starters. And, you know, it starts with Patrick Mahomes at number one overall. Nobody would disagree with that. He's got Joe Burrow number two. You know, nobody's really going to put a massive fight up for that. He's got Jalen Hertz at three. I think that's too high. I would have Josh Allen and Justin Herbert, and quite frankly, Aaron Rogers, if he plays the way I think he'll play this year ahead of Jalen Hertz.

but Jalen Hertz is in the conversation of a top five quarterback. He's got Josh Allen at four, Justin Herbert at five. He's got Aaron Rogers at six, Lamar Jackson at seven. He's got Trevor Lawrence at eight. Dak Prescott at nine, to me, is just too high. I mean, I've got to put Prescott back several notches from where people have had him in recent years, which is right around the top 10.

And Cody Benjamin from CBS Sports continues to keep them in the top 10. I don't see it that way. He's got Deshawn Watson at 10. Look, I had Deshawn Watson before all of the nonsense of him and his behavior. I had him, you know, starting to butt up against the best in the game. It's somewhere between 5 and 7. He's got him at 10. We'll see what happens with Watson this year.

We don't know what that year took out of him, you know, personally, psychologically. Physically, at the end of last year, he didn't look like. like himself with the exception of the Washington game. But that's Cody Benjamin's top 10. Kirk Cousins comes in at 11. Brock Purdy at 12. I think that's awfully high for Brock Purdy. Jared Goff at 13, Geno Smith at 14, Daniel Jones at 15, and Justin Fields at 16. Look, I'll get to where Sam Hal is here in a moment. But think about this. Justin Fields, Daniel Jones, Gino Smith, Jared Gough, and Brock Purdy, all considered now, and you'll understand why here in a moment, as top half of the league starting quarterbacks. I actually believe in Justin Fields.

I believe in Daniel Jones. I don't know what we'll get from Gino Smith, but Jared Gough is in a really good system for him. I don't know what to make of Brock Purdy. He's obviously better than the, you know, Mr. Irrelevant last pick in the 2022 draft. He's also very much a beneficiary or a product of an incredible system and an incredible team around him. But there's a quarterback that's not in the top half of the quarterbacks mentioned here that, to me, is completely off base. And that's Tua. Tua, I understand, has maybe the best around.

of weapons in the league. But Tua is a top half of the league quarterback when he's healthy. And that's a big if, understood. Like I'd have Tua ahead of Justin Fields. I would have him ahead of Gino Smith. I would have him ahead of Brock Purdy. You know, at the very least, he's at 17 on this list. And then you get into Matt Stafford, and the reason he's at 18 isn't because of what

Matt Stafford can be. it's because he had a very serious injury. He had a very serious elbow injury, and nobody knows what he will look like next year. Russell Wilson came in at 19. Look, I think with Sean Peyton, he may start to climb that list again. I've not given up on Russell Wilson.

Kyler Murray's at 20. I mean, I think Kyler Murray, and a lot of the rankings of quarterbacks this time last year was probably close to top 10. Then it's Bryce Young, Derek Carr, at 22. That's pretty low for Derrick Carr. Jimmy Garoppolo at 23, Jordan Love at 24. That seems high for a guy that hadn't played at all. Ryan Tannehill, then we get more rookies, Anthony Richardson and C.J. Stroud. And then we get into, in the final five quarterbacks, three guys in year two.

All right? Kenny Pickett comes in at 28. Mack Jones at 29. Baker Mayfield at 30. And then you get two other guys that are in year two. Sam Hal and Desmond Ritter. What was the order? Desmond Ritter was 31. And the last ranked quarterback in Cody Benjamin from CBSSports.com's list of the projected 32 starting quarterbacks in the league is Sam Hal. He writes, he flashed a big arm in a week 18 start, and the commander seemed to like the gutsy mentality. They also saw it with Carson, Wenson, Taylor Heineke, but the 22-5th rounder is wholly unproven otherwise. That's true. Everything there is true.

I don't know if he should be higher than 32. If he should be higher than Desmond Ritter or Mack Jones or any of the rookies that haven't played a down yet, it's an I don't know situation. I mean, this is what we've talked about. Will tweeted me, Kevin, you're spot on about Sam Howell's last year at North Carolina. being used as a crutch to explain away his draft position, which is what I talked to Tommy about on the podcast yesterday, which is that this idea that Sam Howell dropped in the draft because his stats weren't as good as they weren't as next to last year at North Carolina because

he lost all of his weapons is stupid. It's just not true. First of all, the stats aren't that much different. You could make the case that with the increased rushing yards, which was the big difference statistically for him. He rushed for well over 800 yards, like 500 yards more than the year before. You could have made the case that he should have been more valuable to scouts. That's just not, you know, you don't drop four and a half rounds when you're a projected very high pick because you lost some weapons. They know that he lost the weapons.

They're not going off of stats because of lost weapons and then dropping them four and a half round. So I made that case yesterday and Will tweeted, you know, you're spot on about Sam Howell's last year at North Carolina being used as a crutch to explain away his draft position. But, and here comes the but, I think some of us believe that you think it matters to the point where you don't want to give him a shot. QB is the number one need, which I suggested during the offseason. No, they addressed that with the later round quarterback pick last year on Sam Hal. And so far, they like what they've seen. Let's relax and give Sam a chance. Okay. I'm going to give him a chance. I'm not discounting the possibility that he turns out to be a guy. I just think the odds that he's the guy,

the franchise guy, are really long. But I liked some of what I saw. And by the way, we're past the point of wishing for something different. They have who they have. it's Sam Hal and Jacoby Brissette. Now, I still think there's a chance that Brissette could end up starting. But anyway, the bottom line is he's wholly unproven. And if Cody Benjamin's right and he's number 32 out of 32,

they're going to win five or six games next year, maybe seven. Their defense is too good for me to think that they're going to be awful. But if he's really 32, and it's clear that he's 32, they're going to move to Jacoby Brisset.

at some point. I don't think he'll be the worst starting quarterback in the league, but I don't know, nor do you. It's been the point all along. By the way, my bookie's got a great offer for you right now. They've got boosted odds with the MyBooky money bag. You can take advantage of that, which you can do by using my promo code at MyBooky.com or MyBooky.ag. And my promo code is Kevin D.C. sign up today and bet with house money. Grab yourself a welcome bonus on your first deposit. They've got everything you need for UFC 288. It's a matchup between Sejado and Sterling.

This is something that you'll get every opportunity to bet in every different way. Use my promo code at MyBooky where you can bet anything, anytime, anywhere. All right. Up next, Nikki Javala from the Washington Post will be my guest right after these words from a few. of our sponsors. All right. Jumping on with me right now, as promised, is Nikki Javala. Of course, Nikki does a terrific job as the reporter covering the team for the Washington Post.

And you had the news earlier, and we'll get to, you know, the breaking news of the day, Chase Ruea released, not a surprise. But I wanted to start with just where you think we are. You've been involved in some of this reporting with Mark Maskey and others. Where are we? Like, what stage are we in in the sale process? Yeah, I think it's, this one's different. It's different than previous franchise sales. And perhaps that should have been expected, given the ownership situation.

But so the stage is not within the traditional ratification process. This is one that will probably be approved in stage. stages. You know, the general terms of the bit have been sent over to the Finance Committee for vetting. They could get preliminary approval on some parts that still have holes in on others. There are some issues that need to be resolved before it can be finally put up for a vote and ratified by the full membership. But we're still at the stage that we were, you know, really a week ago and that, you know, the Finance Committee has done. in the basic terms of the bid.

Josh Harris's group still seems to be adding LPs to their group and still working on that part of it. There could be other issues that play, too, like the indemnification issue. So it's still not signed or exclusive yet, but all indications are that, you know, this group led by Josh Harris and Mitchell Rails will be the one that is ultimately signed and then, you hope, ratified by the rest of the league. I can't imagine they wouldn't ratify it.

it looks like the major parts are okay. They just need to iron out some details. I've described it and tell me if you think this is accurate, that we've gotten to the point where Harris is the guy, Harris and the League are fine, Harris and Snyder are fine, that this is an issue between Snyder and the League. And you guys have kind of alluded to that in your writing.

And I would just ask you specifically beyond the indemnification, because in a recent story, you know, the Mary Joe White investigation was, brought up as, you know, something that's out there and needs to be resolved and resolved, I would imagine, between Snyder and the league. What do you think is right now being negotiated for the lack of a better description between Dan and the league? Yeah, I'm sure it could be along those lines. I think when we talk about with the indemnification piece, it's actually two parts. You know, you usually have the buyer indemnify the seller to a certain point.

But in this case, Dan has also asked the league and other owners to indemnify him, and the league has turned and said, absolutely not. You should be the one to indemnify us. So that is sort of the second part that, you know, could be, you know, really negotiate. As far as, you know, the specifics of what they're really asking for, you said, you know, I'm not sure we'll ever know that. I'm not sure we'll ever tell us. that specifically, but, you know, that's certainly one of the issues that could be going on right now. Do you think that the Mary Joe White investigation is part of this at all? Do you think he's concerned about them, you know, following through with what they said, which was to be totally transparent

with it? Or do you think that that's not a part of this? I don't know that it's a part of that to, you know, is whether, I mean, they said multiple times they're going to release the report. and I don't think they can go back on it, especially after everything that happened with the Wilkinson report and, you know, their decision, the league's decision to have it as sort of an oral findings and present a summarization of it to the public. So they're going to release the report now. Is it part of it in that, you know, they don't disclose the full report, you know.

Again, that may not be something we ever really know. but as far as, you know, they're being a report or no report, I don't think that's not a consideration right now. Do you have any kind of gut feeling on what kind of owner Josh Harris in his group will be? Yeah, I mean, I think you can kind of look at what they've done, not the Sixers and the Devils, to a degree, you know, different leagues, different sport, obviously, you know, based on kind of what the things they've done there. They've hired a staff and they delegate, but they're involved to a certain point.

You know, Josh Harris seems to be very invested in this. And to have his third team, you know, he does own a piece of the Steelers, which he'll have to sell off. But, you know, I would expect him to be involved. I don't know that he'll be involved on the day-to-day transactions and what quarterback they draft or that type of thing. A lot of this, we're going to find out as we go along because he's never really been involved with an NFL team to this degree. so we'll see but I think the fact that both of his teams the devils and you know the 76ers are in the playoffs are pretty promising signs what do you think the first thing he'll do is like you know at this point right do you agree with me that making any significant football moves other than maybe to hire

you know ahead of football operations or a GM to kind of evaluate for him you know do you think anybody on the business side would be immediately in trouble? Yeah, that's a good question. I mean, I agree with you, and I don't know this based on, I haven't heard anything along these lines. I mean, it's still away from that. But I would imagine, you know, you would start with maybe trying to get a GM or some sort of overseer of the business operations there.

Jason Ray is currently the team president, but it's kind of a different sub-up with, you know, ownership kind of detached from the regular business operations. So I think he'll want to assess kind of where they are business-wise as well as football. And that could be done over the next season. And then start to make some moves, you know, how broad it will be. We'll see. I don't think anything would surprise me, given the things that need to be changed. But I would imagine that the business operations are first and foremost for them,

just kind of establishing the structure, the people they want, and their overall workflow. I mean, Jason clearly seems to be publicly lobbying to continue in either that job or even perhaps get more responsibility it would seem even on the football side, right? You feel that way. Not exactly discreet with it, yeah. No, not at all. I mean, I actually have been, and I think I talked about this the other day, Nikki, I'm surprised at how direct he has been publicly. about what a windfall and what a glorious day it's going to be when Dan and Tanya are finally gone because, you know, there will be so much interest in, you know, paying for tickets and suites.

And, I mean, I'm not saying that he's wrong. In fact, I think he's right. But it's been interesting to see how, you know, non-suttle he's been about it. Right. Yeah, and I think it's one thing to say that. Can you prove it? is another thing. But also I think, you know, everybody right now is you're trying to save yourself, you know,

and everybody's in sort of that prove-it mode. Yeah, I don't blame them. For the business football operations, yeah. So I think they're all trying to, like, you know, prove themselves to the next group, show why they should want to keep them and why they're an important piece. So, you know, I don't, I don't knock at all for going that route. and it makes sense if he's doing it. But that's just kind of been my sense from afar.

You know, everybody's trying to show that. It's just playing in evening, you know? Yeah. You know, you, like, I want to get to football, and I'm going to here in a moment. But you covered the Broncos for a while. And, you know, there was a time many, many years ago where the Broncos fan base and the Redskins fan base were comparable.

They were at the top of the list, you know, in terms of true, passionate, loyal, fan bases. Denver just went through a sale. You weren't necessarily covering the Broncos during that sale. You were here already. And now this franchise is going through a similar thing. But Harris is buying something completely different than the Walton Penner group. Because he's buying an NFL team in a really attractive market. But with a fan base that has perhaps half to two thirds left, that never happened with the Broncos. fan base. So I'm curious as somebody who has seen these kinds of markets and probably followed the Walton Penner sale to a certain degree. Do you think that the fan base just automatically comes back because Dan is gone? Totally no. I think there will be more people in the stands, but keeping them there will be dependent on the wins. You know, I look at the Broncos as like, it's like buying, you know,

a 15-year-old house, you know, it's turnkey, but you're going to have to make some renovation. right, whereas this is like buying a 1960s project that you're going to have to really gut and really do some major work to. So, you know, it's going to draw interest initially, but you've got to find a way to keep them there. You've got to find a way to draw even more fans. You've got to get the fans back that are so adamant about, you know, not rooting for the team. Find a way to get them back in the scenes. It's not going to be easy, and I don't think the ownership change alone will fix that.

You know, I think if they have a dud of a season or even a mediocre one again, I think it's going to make it even more difficult. So winning changes everything. And until they do that, I think it's going to be a struggle. Right. All right. Let's talk some football. So they cut Chase Rui.

That's not a surprise. Do you think Norwell's next? Probably. I mean, yeah. I'm honestly surprised that hasn't happened already. But it tastes really it was more significant in my mind, just because he was a centerpiece, you know, a year ago. Unfortunately, he's just, he's had just such unfortunate luck with the injuries, you know, two-season ending injuries in consecutive seasons. And, you know, then they sign Nick Gates and they draft Ricky Stromberg.

So it was inevitable. And he knew it. And if there's any silver lining for him out of this, it's that he's fully healthy. And hopefully something materializes pretty quickly for him. Is Nick Gates the starting center? assuming health? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Do you think Kendall Fuller is a candidate to be released?

I think it's possible. I think Campbell will kind of show where they are with that. I think a lot of it's dependent on where their younger guys are at, you know. Kind of manual for play right away. I mean, certainly you want that in a first round pick. but Kenna four is their top veteran back there, arguably their top DB, outside of Cam Curl. So, you know, I think it's inevitable that they're going to move away from them at some point, how quickly I think it's really going to depend on the development of the young guy. It's interesting to me, because I was asked about this like earlier in the week, and I said, no chance.

You know, he's smart. He's actually made a lot of plays. He's versatile. and he is one of those guys that they view as a good culture guy. And even though it would be a significant savings, they're unproven. Benjamin St. Juice misses games. They've got a rookie on the other side.

But you're now, I mean, even Ben told me this morning on radio that he thinks that it's in play as well. I'm actually very surprised at that. What didn't they get in the off-season today? date, which is pretty much, you know, three-fourths of the off season, four-fifths of it, that they really wanted? I mean, I'm surprised they didn't drive to tackle. I mean, I thought they were going to, I mean, I know they wanted to add help to the offensive

line. They did, and see what into Wiley and getting more versatile guys, you know, but Braden Daniels is more of an inside guy. Ron said he'll start to compete outside of tackle, but I think ultimately he'll move inside. So they didn't get reinforcement of a tackle. And I look at Charles Leno, who has really a year left on his deal as getting older.

Cornelius Lucas is back, but there's no real succession plan there on either edge in their premium position. So I was very surprised they didn't draft a tackle, especially knowing same hell is taking over. You've got to protect your young guy.

So that was the big glaring one to me. As far as quarterback, I could have gone either way. I think it would have you know, they've been pumping up Sam Hal so much to this point that it didn't really surprise if they were going to add it be late. And at that point, okay, you know, I'm not going to, no offense to the, you know, a seven-brown quarterback, but I'm not just, he's not going to jump it and start. Now how they trade it up for like Nancy D. Richardson type, that would have been an absolute game changer. But it was more the tackle, the no, you know, the non-move at tackle that kind of surprise me. Right. Do you think if Darnell Wright, the kid from Tennessee, it dropped to six,

they would have taken him instead of Forbes? That's a good question. Maybe. I know they really, they really, really like Camino Forbes. So, I don't know, but maybe.

I could see it going to go. How's it going so far for Eric B. Enemy? I think it's been okay. I haven't heard any complaints from over there. I mean, he's in an interesting position, you know. I mean, he's really trying to prove himself as a future head coach. but also prove themselves to stay with this next ownership group

and work with a bunch of young guys on this team, a young quarterback. You know, and after working so long with Patrick Mahomes and guys like Travis Kelsey, he's kind of working on, I don't want to say a project because this is a well-belt team. They've got skill players,

but it's definitely a different type of team. So, you know, I think it's an interesting opportunity for them. I'm surprised there weren't others. this, you know, through this cycle as he came out of Kansas City. But, you know, he has a chance to maybe not just stick around as OC, but depending on what Ron decides in his future here, maybe become head coach here. So I think he sees that.

I think everybody sees that. You know, again, it comes back to winning. Yeah, I mean, I think it's so interesting with BNemi, right? Because I actually, and I've said this many times, I think that this is a much bigger year for him than it is for Rivera. Because I think if it doesn't work out for Rivera, that's the end. You know, he's not going to coach anymore. He's not going to get another head coaching opportunity.

And, you know, I don't even know that it would really bother him or crush him that much. I'm not, you know, questioning his competitiveness. But I think he, you know, he's not, he can probably see the handwriting on the wall if he doesn't have a great season. And, you know, given everything he's gone through and everything he's been through here, it's one thing. You know, Eric Bianney wants to be a head coach. So that's why when I start thinking about him, there's two ways in which he proves himself. One is this offense is elevated to a much higher level than it's ever been. And if it is, this team will win.

Or he develops this, you know, quarterback who is kind of a project. You know, the team offensively isn't a project. But the quarterback is, it's hard to describe him as anything other than that at this point. But there's so much progress shown that that's a win for him too. Which route do you think is most likely for him, if I were to say at the end of next year, he succeeded and people viewed him as, you know, head coach capable? Yeah, that's a good question. I wish I had the answer.

I think he will be given more time than the best way to word this, but maybe more time than others to really prove himself as not just a coordinator. We already know he's called plays, but to fully run the offense and to maybe fully run a team than perhaps others on step. I think he's his resume coming from Kansas City I think it's still very intriguing

and will remain so even after this year. Yeah they got to win but I think perhaps he gets maybe a little bit more of a pass as being new and coming into a brand new team or as other coaches who may have been here for quite some time and have had time to develop

some of these younger guys. That's just my opinion. Whether it's true or not, we'll see. It's all dependent on this new ownership group and what they envision. Sure. But I could see them giving them more of a chance, be more time at OC, to develop into head coach or to quickly turn into a head coach if things change in the year. Right. But what's his best path to that? Is it, you know, and we don't know because we don't know enough about Sam Hal, but it's possible. Like, do you give it a chance, which I do,

that ultimately he says, wait a minute, Jacoby Brissette is just so far beyond where Sam is, and he gives us a chance to really compete with the weapons we have around him and with the defense, etc. and that Jacobi Brissette ends up being the quarterback that starts the majority of games. That would not surprise me. I know everybody has convinced themselves that Sam How is the starting. He may very well be. He's going to give every chance to be.

But they have not fully ruled out Jacobi Brissette. And given the way he played last year in Cleveland, it's very possible. The guy just has more experience. So I would not surprise me at all. And if he feels he's a better quarterback, I think the enemy has a way to make that decision. Yeah, I do too. I think that's, I think you're spot on. All right, last one.

What does Chase Young have to do this year? Obviously, they don't love him. What are the chances you think he ends up having the kind of year that changes their minds? you know, a different way, but it is somewhat similar to the way Duran Paine's changed their mind. Yeah, I think the vaults in his court. I mean, it's kind of a cliche, but, you know, I think it's kind of on him. You've got to produce, first and foremost, and I think it's going to come down to

whether Montez or Chase Produce. It appears to be the better long-term fit, the better long-term answer there's probably going to be the one to say on a longer-term deal. Kind of a cold business in that way, but, you know, what's your prediction? I think he'll step up, and I think it'll be just enough that they extend them. You know, it may not be enough in the eyes of fans. They'll probably want more, but I think it'll be just enough. And the fact that he's a number two pick from this regime, I think he'll get more time.

Nikki does such a great job covering the team for the post. Follow Nikki on Twitter at Nikki N-I-C-I. J-H-A-B-V-A-L-A on Twitter. It's always good to catch up. Hope you're well, and let's talk soon. Sounds good. Thanks for having me. Nikki's great. She does a great job. Let's get to tomorrow, which is Kentucky Derby Day,

with our good friend Eddie C. From down in Florida. We'll do that right after these words from a few of our sponsors. Well, it's the first Saturday in May tomorrow, that means the Kentucky Derby. And back to give us a breakdown of the race and a pick or two is Eddie C. Eddie C's from here but lives down south. You can follow him on Twitter at Notebook Picks.

It's Notebook Picks by Eddie C. Last year, of course, we had an unbelievable Kentucky Derby with Rich Strike, got in after a late scratch, one at 80 to 1, paid $163.60. And this year we've got three late scratches, Eddie. Is there another rich strike who can win as a late entry? Do we have another stunner for tomorrow? Well, hey, Kevin, I hope you're doing well. Appreciate you having me on again.

And yeah, this is one of my favorite weekends of the year. You know, it's like it's the Masters, this, the NCAA March Madness, and opening day baseball, and opening day NFL. So I'm pumped, man. This is awesome. So we actually had another late scratch this morning. The nine horse skinner also scratched. And it's kind of crazy what's going on. There might be a couple other ones.

But just to a quick review on last year, you know, when we taped last year, when we did the podcast last year, Rich Strike wasn't in the field. And the two horses I gave came second and third. So I kind of feel like a gut punch there. We were looking good coming down the stretch. Well, would you have changed your picks? Had you known Rich Strike was in the field? 100% strictly because Rich Strike is out of Sire lineage pedigree line

that I follow religiously, and all the listeners will know this. it's out of the deputy minister sire line. And I ended up using him very little, but not, I mean, because I didn't realize he was in the race up until like an hour before the race. I mean, I just never even thought that he was going to be in the race. And he was put in on Friday, but I had already made all my picks. And then somebody told me he was in. I'm like, oh, my God, I didn't even know. So I would have made it a little bit bigger of a selection.

But regardless, this year, is there another rich strike to answer the question? Probably not, right? Can I answer that as somebody who understands odds to a certain degree? The chances are pretty remote that we're going to have an 80-to-one or come through. Right. You might get a 20 or 30-to-one shot, especially just because of these late scratches. You've got, you know, the way the derby works just real quickly is 20 horses typically run in the race, but you always have like 22, 23, sometimes 24 horses entered.

And those extra horses are what's called also-eligible. And what happens is if a horse scratches, one of the also-eligible jumps in. Well, this year there was 23 horses, and all three of the also-eligible jumped in. And all three of them, morning line are 20-1, 30-to-1, and 50-to-1. Now, are they going to go off at those odds? Probably not. can any of those three win, I think one of them has a really good chance to win. And that's the one that's at 20 to 1.

So we'll get to that in just a minute. But yeah, I don't see an 80 to one shot winning this year. Tell me about the number 15 horse. Is it Fort or Forte? It's Forte. This horse has won six of seven races. Five in a row was the two-year-old champion. Colt

won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Classic and has run twice this year, has won both races looked very good. I'm going to try to beat him primarily because well, there's a couple reasons. One is

I like one horse a lot and the other reason is yesterday he kind of took a little bit of a bad step galloping around the track and I saw the video of it and I've watched it a few times and I've talked to a few people. And it's, you know, this horse could win and could turn out to be a super horse.

But I'm going to try to beat it because I think he's going to be bet down a little too low, 5 to 2, 2 to 1. And I'm looking for value when I played the derby. All right. Well, we'll tell me where the value is. Well, the horse I like is morning line is 5 to 1. It's a horse called Tapit Trice. I like this.

I've been on this horse since I saw him. since I saw him win his first race. I wasn't there personally, but I watched him on TV, and he's won. He lost his first race, and he's won four in a row. And he just ran, won the bluegrass rates in Keenland, which is right around the corner from Louisville. And this horse is really good. Todd Pletcher is the trainer. Luis Saez, just real quickly on this, he's the jockey.

Luis Sayez jumped, he gave up a mount on maybe the best Philly in the country called Secret Oath, who ran against the boys, I think in Pimlico last year, in the Preakness. He gave up the mount on that horse to stay on this horse because he said that I think this is my Triple Crown winning, or my Kentucky Derby horse. And he stayed on him, and I've seen him work out, I've followed him, I've watched him, I've watched the replays, really like the horse. He's my top pick. But I will say this is a really tough race.

There's a lot of horses. This is a tough race, man. How many horses are in this race again? Well, right now, because of that late scratch on this morning, there's 19 listed. What's the largest number of horses that you could actually run in a Kentucky Derby? 20 is the most typically typically at any other track

it's 14 because the gate is 14 and for many years the Kentucky Derby they had what's called an auxiliary gate so they had 14 and then they had an additional gate well a few years ago Kentucky purchased you know because European horses

they have tons of horses running races they purchased a 20 panel gate. So now 20 horses are all on the same gate. But that's the maximum they can do it. Eddie C is with us. We're talking Derby tomorrow. Is there a horse going into this triple crown season that, you know, you think is a legitimate triple crown threat? Well, obviously, yeah, I think there's three or four potentially. I mean, you obviously have to win the Kentucky Derby. Forte has done nothing wrong.

I've said that I'm going to try to beat him. You know, and for those that are wondering and maybe writing down some numbers, Forte's the 15-horse. Yeah. The horse that you think will actually go off as the favorite at like five to two, right? Yeah. I mean, he's three-to-one morning line. I think he's going to get that down a little bit. I don't think he's going to go off at, like, below two to one.

one, but you never know. You never know where the wise guy money goes or where the, you know, the computer money is going because right now that's a big contention that there's so much computer money going in. What's interesting is there's two Japanese horses in this race. And, you know, for those that don't follow horse racing as closely as I do, the Japanese horses have been winning everywhere. They've been winning in the U.S. They've been winning in Japan. They won the big races in Saudi Arabia and in Dubai. And this horse, the 17 horse, it's called Derma Sotogaki. Morning line, he's 10 to 1.

I believe he's going to get that down quite a bit. I had him in my top two elections, top two, top three, but I kind of bumped him down a little bit just because, you know, he traveled to Japan, from Japan to Dubai, back to Japan. and now over to the East Coast, even though he's been in Kentucky for almost a month, that's just a lot of, that takes a lot out of a horse. So, but if he wins, because he won the Dubai race, he could be a special horse. You know, and then there's another horse, the six, called Kingsbarn.

He's three for three. He hasn't lost ever. Is that a Japanese horse? Kingsbarns is not a Japanese horse. He's an American horse, but he's only run three times, and he, all three races this year, and it's really hard to win the derby when you haven't run as a two-year-old and get some seasoning. The other horse a lot of people like, and I like too, is the 14 horse, which is Angel of Empire. And then the other Japanese horse is the 22 Mandarin hero. And this horse has run once in the U.S.

ran over in California, just missed winning that race, ran a huge race, and I think he's got a big chance. All right, I've gone over a lot, so shall we get to it, or you got something else? I wanted to ask you, who's the best trainer in this race tomorrow, and who's the best jockey? Wow.

Well, let's look at it this way. Pletcher's got a bunch of horses, it looks like. well Brad Cox actually has four horses in the race and Todd Pletcher I believe has three horses in the race and you know those are two of you know two of the top trainers going right now Brad Cox is a really young trainer that's made a lot of noise recently and then you have Steve Asmusson who's the winningest trainer of all time

and he's got a couple of horses in this race as well. But yeah, the quality of trainers in this race, you know, well, here's the thing that you don't have. Again, you don't have Bob Baffer. Yeah, you don't have Bafford. Yeah, you don't have Baffert.

You know, serving a two-year banned by Churchill Downs and, you know, a good friend of mine just gotten a little trouble with Churchill. I don't want to go into that too much, but he, his horses got scratched out of this race

and, but, you know, you still have a quality field. I just think there's a lot of value in this. And that's why when I make my plays, I'm going to, you know, I'm going to give you two horses that I'm going to use first and second and reverse them and, you know, box them. And then I'm going to, I'm also going to use a lot of horses and trifectives and even a super

fector just so people can, you know, not expensive tickets, but maybe we can cash big. Let's get to, let's just get to your pick. Who's winning the race? All right. So I said my top pick is Tapit twice. He's my number one pick. Okay. The five horse.

The five horse. The 14 horse Angel of Empire really like this horse. Again, he's out of that deputy minister pedigree that we talked about earlier. I'm using him second and going to box those two in exactives. And I'm also using the two verifying, verifying the two kings. second to tap it thrice in a real in a in just a really big contentious race in the bluegrass like four weeks ago and so you know and that's on paper and by the numbers of when you when you're looking and studying races the bluegrass has come out

at the fastest race of all the prep races for the derby so I got to use the two horses well so what I'm doing is I'm taking tap a price on top to win, which is the five horse. I'm going to box him in exactors with a two and 14. And then I'm going to, I'm going to do one saver bet just because I think the 22 horse Mandarin hero, who's 20 to one morning line, I just think he might run first or second as that surprise price horse. And, you know, again, we're not going to get 81. But I'm going to sprinkle him around in exactus with those three horses. Which horse were you just talking about?

Were you just saying the 22 horse? Yeah, the 22 horse. Mandarin hero. Okay, so you're going to, and your super effect, you're going to spread that around with the five, the two, the 14. Well, yeah, let me, let me, I'll be real quick. This is what I'm going to do in a trifect. Okay, trifect is, okay, you go ahead. The exact thing you, you got two.

You got two exactives. You got the 5-2 and the 5-14, right? Yes. Okay. Exactly. Trifacta. And then we're going to, in the trifecta, I'm going to key the five. And that means I'm going to key him on top, so he has to win.

And I'm going to play him over the 2, 8, 11, 12, 14, 17, 22. Okay, that's seven horses. If they let you do it for 50 cents, it's a $21 bet. If you can only do it for $1, it's a $42 bet. If that hits, that's where you're going to get, you're going to get four figures plus on that one. All right, you got it. Tapit, Trice is the pick, the five horse.

Eddie's got him with the two horse and the 14 horse in Exactas. And then you've got the 5, 2, 8, 11, 12, 14, 17, and 22, and a bunch of trifectas. Yep, and next time, well, let's see if it hits. We've had pretty good success, so I appreciate the time, Kevin, as always, and hopefully we can do it again for the prequeness, and maybe this summer we'll get you up to Saratoga so we can have a little fun up there.

I know that Saratoga apparently is a blast, and I've never done it before, so that would be a lot of fun. Great job, as always. All your boys go there. All your boys go there. I know they do. I know a lot. Not my sons, but a lot of my friends go up there all the time. Yes, they do. Yeah, you're friends. Maybe you and Lowe's can come up this.

Well, you know, just don't make me room with him. At Notebook Picks, and that's Notebook Picks by Eddie C. Follow him on Twitter, and we'll have him back before the Preakness. Great job. Talk to you soon. Hope you're well. Appreciate it, Kevin. Good job by Eddie. Thank you, thanks to Nikki Javala as well.

Tommy will be with me on Monday. I'll have my mock schedule next week on Wednesday. The schedule will be released according to Adam Schaefter anyway next Thursday night. Back on Monday, have a great weekend.