The Kevin Sheehan Show - I Graded Washington's Draft

Episode Date: May 2, 2025

Kevin opened the show by answering a request to settle a bet and grade Washington's draft. Tarik El-Bashir/Caps-Monumental Sports joined the show to preview the Caps-Carolina series. Eddie C jumped on to preview the Kentucky Derby. Go to zbiotics.com/SHEEHAN and use SHEEHAN at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.Go To WindowNation.com. Buy 4 windows, get 4 free!Betting on sports? Go to mybookie.ag. Use code KEVINDC for a bonus!  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheon Show. Here's Kevin. The show's presenting sponsors, always Windonation, 86690 Nation, or Windonation.com if you're looking for new windows. Two guests on the show today. We'll talk Caps, Carolina, with Tark El-Bashir from Monumental Sports in the next segment.

By the way, Tommy seemed pretty definitive. saying that Caps Carolina game one is scheduled for Monday night. Actually, the game has not been scheduled as of this moment. It depends on what happens in some of the remaining Western Conference series games. There's a game six tonight in St. Louis between Winnipeg and the St. Louis Blues, and then there's a game seven tomorrow between Dallas and Colorado. From my understanding, the Caps may end up open. up on Sunday at home against Carolina. I think we will find out for sure after the game

tonight. If the series between Winnipeg and St. Louis ends tonight, then there's a good chance the caps will open up on Sunday. If that series gets extended to a seventh game on Sunday, then I think the caps will open up on Monday night. But stay tuned on that one. After Tarek, Eddie C will jump on with us. Eddie C is our resident horse handicapper, and tomorrow is the Kentucky Derby. Eddie C has been coming on with us now for a few years on the Fridays before Triple Crown events. He's kind of a local legend when it comes to handicapping the horses, and Eddie C will jump on with us in the final segment of the show today.

This to open up the show, it comes from Jordan. Jordan writes, Kevin, the constant hand-wringing of the Washington-Tampa-Bay playoff game of fans saying it was kind of a close game. And then just because Jaden is your guy making it out that the Philly playoff game was actually closer than folks think. That's funny, Jordan. I'll concede this, okay? Philadelphia could have scored 70 in the NFC championship game in January if they needed to. So the game was never winnable, and I think I've represented my thoughts on that game in that very way, that I never thought Washington would win the game because they couldn't stop Philadelphia. but I'll concede that if you concede that Washington was never going to beat Tampa Bay

in that playoff game during COVID at FedEx Field when 7 and 9 and NFC East Champion Washington hosted Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. That game too was, see, I think Washington, Philly wasn't necessarily a 32-point game in January. Washington had the ball down 3423 and they were driving when Austin Echler fumbled at the end of the third quarter. But I'll concede that even if Washington had scored, they were never going to beat Philadelphia because they couldn't get Philly off the field if it mattered. Philly would have scored 60 or 70 had they been required to do so. I mean, they averaged, you know, like seven and a half yards per play or whatever it was. But in that Tampa game, that final score, 3123, even though Washington had the ball at the end of the game down by eight, Brady would have just done what was required to win the game. Tampa Bay that night had 507 yards of offense, and Chris Godwin dropped five passes in the game.

Taylor Heineke was great. That was the game of his career, no doubt. But Brady would have put up whatever number they needed to win the game. Just like Philly in the game in January would have put up as many points as was required. There you go. I think that was a slight concession on my part. I never said that Washington would win the game. I've just said that there were moments in that game. game where Washington was moving pretty consistently as well, and down 3423 with the ball, they were on the move at midfield, but they weren't going to beat Philadelphia. Philadelphia was the much better team in the NFC championship game, and Tampa Bay was just flat out a better team than Washington. And remember, it wasn't about that Washington wasn't in that game. I just said for many, many days, weeks, months, and even years after that game, that Washington did not give Tampa Bay their toughest test on the way to winning that Super Bowl. New Orleans and Green Bay did.

I mean, they legitimately could have lost to New Orleans and Green Bay. They did pummel Kansas City, though, in the Super Bowl. All right. This from Martin. Martin writes, Kevin, so you don't want to grade the draft, but I have a bet with a friend of mine that you really liked the draft.

So let's play a hypothetical game. Martin, by the way, could probably do some sports talk podcasting or radio showing because we play the hypothetical game all the time. Martin writes, I give you $1,000 to give me an honest grade and you take the money and give the grade. Please play along.

It's hypothetical. I'm not getting $1,000, but I will play along with you, Martin. I've said that grading drafts is a ridiculous exercise, because we don't know anything. The people that do this for a living don't know it. They know it much better than we do, and they get it wrong, the majority. the significant majority of the time.

But anyway, I'll play along. All right, let's do this. I'll go pick by pick. Connerley Jr. All right, I like that they invested in protecting Jaden Daniels. I like that they invested in the trenches. I like the athleticism of the player.

I like that Cooley really likes the player. If you miss Cooley's film breakdown of Josh Connerly, Jr., he did a film breakdown on last Friday, show. I like that Cliff Kingsbury wanted him so much, putting the note on Adam Peters' desk. Oregon, tackle, please. I like that they fill the need, because I do think that a better second offensive tackle or right tackle was a need. If they felt that it was a need, it was a need, because clearly that they don't view Brandon Coleman as the long-term answer there. I like that they got Connerley Jr. before, you know, kind of all of the highly rated offensive linemen

were gone. So I'm going to give the Connerly pick an A. I think it's an A pick. Trey Amos, they picked a guy at the end of the second round that was projected by many to go in the first round, worst case early second. I think the value looks very good. I like the player. I liked a few other corners in this draft, but I trust them on the fit. Corners are hard to analyze, like offensive linemen are. Their first two picks, I think, are the two hardest positions for fans to really analyze. So I will trust them on the fit, on the scheme being a good match. I'll give that pick an A.

Jalen Lane, wide receiver from Virginia Tech. I did not know much about Lane, but I'm impressed after watching him. Athletic, speedy, a true vertical threat, you know, especially if he's got a real quarterback, which he didn't have much of at Virginia Tech. He's a weapon in the run game on reverses, on jet sweeps. He's a weapon in the screen game. I think the value was fine. Look, I liked several receivers.

a lot more, but they were all gone in the fourth round. Washington did not have a third round pick. I'll give Jalen Lane and this pick a B. Cain Madrano, linebacker, UCLA. I talked about this on Monday. I love the player. That was the one that really jumped off for me. Now, there were some things about the player that were, you know, a bit concerning, like his mistackle race. but the value in the sixth round was based on, you know, the value in the sixth round was very, very good based on just a back of the envelope consensus before the draft of what his value was. So I like the value. You know, I'm a little bit like puzzled as to what he is. Is he a linebacker?

Could he play safety? He kind of looks more like a safety in terms of his physical stature. But I love the overall athleticism. I love the anticipation playmaking ability. Now, that anticipation gets him in trouble at times too. So there is that part of it. I'm going to give the Kane-Madrano pick a B-plus, A-minus. I like the player.

The last player, Jacori Kroski-Mert, where Bill is his nickname. I didn't know anything about him. I would have been thrilled had they figured out a way to get a few other guys. For me, a trade-up, you know, when they were on the board in the sixth and seventh rounds, in the sixth round in particular, I was really hoping they would take Damien Martinez. Damien Martinez has already been listed in a lot of post-draft write-ups as one of the steals of the draft. Seattle got him in the seventh round. So I would have loved a trade-up into the early part of the seventh round.

and a selection of Damien Martinez, or into the sixth round where Taj Brooks and Devin Neal both went. I liked all three of those players. Merritt looks good. You got to go back to the 2023 New Mexico season to really get a sense of what he can be. You didn't get that at Arizona. He only played in one game.

But, you know, he looks athletic. He looks fast. He looks like he's got burst. He looks like kind of a change of pace back, even though he was much more than that at New Mexico. but I did some research that I think is interesting. It doesn't guarantee anything one way or the other. But over the last 10 NFL drafts,

there have been 33 running backs taken in the seventh round. 33 running backs taken in the seventh round over the last 10 drafts, not counting this year, of course, because we haven't seen any of the seventh round picks play in games, yet. But of the 33, just one, one out of 33 has had an impact as a running back. Isaiah Pacheco, seventh round, 22, out of Rutgers to the Kansas City Chiefs. Isaiah Pacheco is a good back. You know, he had a good season in 2023. He was hurt last year, 935 yards in 2023 with seven touchdowns and 44 catches.

He's a good back. He's not an elite back. There are, you know, eight, nine, ten backs better than Pacheco, but I love how hard he runs. I mean, he is a tough runner. But out of the last 10 drafts, just one out of 33 has made it. So that gives you some historical perspective on seventh round running backs. There is a back right now in the NFL who is having a back. an impact as an undrafted free agent. RICO Dowdell, the Cowboys running back, who by the way, where is he? I actually don't even think he's in Dallas anymore, right? Didn't he sign with somebody else? Yeah, he signed in Carolina during the offseason. So Chikori Kroski, Merritt, I'll give the pick a B-minus C-plus. I would have much preferred to have seen the team, you know, trade up with maybe next year's sixth rounder along with this year's seventh to get a shot at a Devin Neal, a Damien Martinez, a Taj Brooks, somebody like that. So I give him a B minus C plus. Look, the draft overall did not produce what I would consider, you know, a potential replacement

for Brian Robinson Jr. I could be wrong about that. Maybe it is Kroski Merritt, or maybe they'll settle that in free agency by signing Nick Chubb, talked about him yesterday, or somebody like J.K. Dobbins, who knows. And they didn't get an edge defense event. You know, you can't get everything when you only have five picks. But I do, you know, overall trust that they know what they're doing. It's once again a very athletic class. It finished number one for the second straight year in that relative athletic score evaluation. I guess, you know, looking at what I just gave the five players and considering some of the overall thoughts on it,

I'd give it an A minus B plus. I mean, you know, for whatever it's worth. I guess it's worth something to you, Martin. I think that wins you your bet. This from Liam. Liam writes, please, I beg you, Kevin, no more NBA talk. It sucks. I'm not doing much NBA. I recognize that the mass majority of you are not watching the NBA playoffs. I think you're missing out on something really entertaining.

You know, your sports fans and the NBA playoffs are intense and they are great last night. The Knicks Pistons game was insane. Jalen Brunson, the clutch player of the year in the NBA, hit the game winning three, had 40. The Clippers forced game seven last night with actually James Harden playing well and scoring 28. Kauai had 27. That's going to be a great game seven tomorrow night in Denver. You get game six, Golden State and Houston tonight. By the way, Golden State better win tonight because if they don't win tonight, don't think they're going to win game seven on Sunday. And I think they might lose tonight, actually. I kind of like Houston tonight plus the points. Houston is young. They're fresh,

they're deep, and Golden State looks a bit tired, and Steph is hurt. He's got an injured thumb. I'm rooting for Golden State. I actually wagered on them after the Jimmy Butler trade to win the West at plus 900. But I don't feel good about that play right now. But at least if they can win this round, get into the next round. can start to hedge a little bit on that wager. Anyway, one other quick NBA note from today, and Liam's not going to be happy because Liam did not make a distinction between NBA playoffs and just NBA talk. He just said any NBA talk sucks.

But Greg Popovich stepped down today as San Antonio's head coach. For those of you that don't know, Popovich had a mild stroke back in November and basically didn't coach this year. He was replaced this year by a guy by the name of Mitch Johnson. Mitch Johnson was just named the permanent head coach to replace Popovich. Popovich is going to take a full-time role as the team's president of basketball operations. And the reason I bring up this story is regardless of what you think of Popovich, you know, whether it's his politics or his just general disposition with media, et cetera, over the years. Great coach. All-time wins leader in NBA history.

And it made me go look something up that I thought was really interesting. San Antonio is an underrated dynasty. Make no mistake, the Spurs under Popovich and his run is dynastic. They won five titles. In a 22-year stretch with Popovich taking over in the 90s. They won five NBA championships. They lost in an NBA finals. They were in the Western Conference finals, an additional five times, not counting their NBA championship years. And they didn't miss the playoffs once, not once during that run. I mean, I think it's an overlooked

dynasty. You know, nobody talks about the San Antonio dynasty, like they talk about the Celtics of the 60s or the Lakers of the 80s or the Bulls of the 90s. But what a run the Spurs had under Popovich until they started to rebuild after losing Duncan and Genobley and Parker and everybody from their last great team. But the other thing about the San Antonio Spurs and their history, they came into the NBA as part of the NBA-ABA merger in 76. Up until the last few years, years when they started a true rebuild. And by the way, they will be good again with Victor Wembeñama. They only missed the playoffs over a 48-year period three times. Three times. Now, the true championship caliber San Antonio Spurs came with Popovich and David Robinson

and then Tim Duncan, Duncan, etc. But before that, for two decades, they were Always good. Larry Brown coached some really good San Antonio teams. Stan Allback coach some really good San Antonio teams. Doug Moe was the first San Antonio coach when they merged into the NBA, and they were in the Eastern Conference, and they played the Bullets in the 1979 Eastern Conference finals. The Bullets won a dramatic seven-game series coming back from 3-1 down. In fact, I think the bullets were the first, either the first or the second team to come from three one behind in a series to win. And they won that series in a dramatic seventh game at the Capitol Center in Landover in

overtime. Bobby Dandridge hit the game winner, and then Elvin Hayes had a blocked shot to seal it. But the Spurs went 48 years and only missed the postseason three times. That is incredible. I mean, I don't know how many franchises have been that successful over that length of time. And I know the NBA playoffs are easier to qualify for than the NFL playoffs or other sports. But still, a hell of a run for the franchise, but a really incredible run for Popovich. I mean, a true dynasty, and I think an overlooked one, certainly an NBA term,

but I think it's for sure in overall sports conversations. I mean, when you start talking about dynasties, it's like Celtics, Packers, you know, and the Yankees, you don't say San Antonio typically. Patriots. Anyway. All right. Let's get to Tark al-Bashir.

We'll talk some hockey after these words from a few of our sponsors. So, guys, if you're starting to notice your hair thinning when you look in the mirror, join the club. You're not alone. Life gets busier and busier and you don't have much time to think about it or do something about it. That's why I'm going to help. I'm going to suggest Hymns. Hems is a hair loss solution product. You can avoid jumping through a bunch of frustrating hoops and get access to treatment without even leaving your home. Hems makes treating hair loss simple with doctor-trusted options and clinically proven ingredients. You can choose from personal

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Restrictions apply. See website for full details and important safety information. This segment of the show is brought to you by Window Nation. If you've been thinking about new windows, call them. 86690 Nation. Go to WindowNation.com. Mention my name. They'll come out. They'll give you a free estimate and you'll get access to their semi-annual sale going on right now in the month of May.

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is Tark El Bashir from Monumental Sportsnet at Tark underscore El Bashir on X on Twitter. Tark does a great job covering the team for Monumental. And he's doing a great job as the On Ice reporter for the Turner telecasts, you know, the TBS, TNT, True TV telecasts of the NHL playoffs. He's very good on TV as well. So we'll get to Carolina, Washington here in a moment. but let's just go back to the series just concluded. Why did they beat Montreal, and why did they beat Montreal so handily in five games?

You know, Kevin, I feel like the series, and I think the players, and even Coach Carberry would tell you, was probably a little closer than a five-game series. You know, game one could have gone either way. The overtime winner by Alex Ovechkin, that game had almost slipped away from Washington. some of the other ones were kind of dicey and could have gone either way in the third period. But I think in the end, the deeper, more experienced team prevailed. The right team won the series. I feel like the great equalizer was twofold when the capitals were at home and Spencer Carberry could get his matchup, the matchup that he wanted.

He wanted the Pierre-Luc Dubois line out against the Nick Suzuki line. They did a really good job of neutralizing what was one of the best offensive lines of the entire regular season. That Cole, Cofield, Nick Suzuki, Uri's, Lefkofsky line was dangerous. And from the four-nations tournament on to the end of the regular season, it actually was the best. They were a plus 15, scoring 24 goals, I believe. But when they were at home, when Washington was at home, Carberry was able to manipulate the lineup and did a really, really nice job with that. And Dubois did a really nice job keeping those guys in check. You know, Jacob Chikrin and John Carlson also deserve a lot of credit in that matchup.

They were out there deployed quite a bit against the Suzuki line. Number two, when your goaltender is playing the way he is, and I'm talking about Logan Thompson here, I know there was an injury scare there, and Charlie Lingran had to come in for a little bit. But when your goaltender is playing the way Thompson is, you can do great things. You and I have talked about this so many times in the past. Goaltenders just play such a big role, particularly this time of year. And right now, Thompson is arguably the best goalie in the tournament in terms of – Really?

You know, overall body of work this season, but how he's playing right now. Look, you know this, and I've said this to you many times before. Tarek's line, and sure to many others, but including me many years ago, hockey at this point in the year shouldn't be called hockey. It should be called goalie. But is he really right now with the way he's playing the best goaltender remaining in the postseason? You know, I mean, statistically, he's probably in the top three.

I, you know, but I would say in terms of, and it's harder to measure this, in terms of making the timely saves, the saves that keep a game from getting tied, or, you know, allow your team to stay ahead, he's making those stops, and he's making the really difficult stops, but more importantly, he's doing it when his team needs it the most, and, you know, he's playing. the way, Kevin, that he looked in December and January when he was, you know, in the conversation with Connor Hellebuck for the Vezna Trophy. And again, when you're the capitals and you've got good offense, you've got a very good defense that's played together all season long, you know, Marty Fervaray is out for the playoffs. That's a big loss. But for the most part, it's the same guys.

You're playing Carberry system. You've got great coaching. But when you have that X factor in goaltending, playing at the level that Thompson is, watch out. You know, it's way too early to talk about, you know, how far this team could go. But if I'm the rest of the league, I'm looking at how the capitals got by Montreal, and I'm going, if L.T, if Logan plays the way he did against Montreal against Carolina, the capitals are going to be a problem.

They can be playing a long time this spring. What is it about LT? Whenever somebody's first name begins with an L and the last name begins with a T, it's always LT. I mean, the all-time L-T is Lawrence Taylor, but L-Daney and Tomlinson was L-T and Logan Thompson's L-T. So I wanted to ask you about Dylan Strom, who's got seven points, and I think he's second in the postseason right now, and the rest of the guys have played six games. Nine points, nine points, seven assists, two goals, yeah. Sorry, that's what I meant. Just compare him to Nicholas Baxter and Baxter's heyday. Yeah, different players.

You know, I would say there are similarities, and the similarity that really stands out to me, Kevin, between Baxter and Strom, is both players play with the type of poise that they were able to slow down the game around them. Neither one of them are burners, like they're not fast. they're not going to overpower you. Their shot is not so elite that, you know, he's just going to rip the puck past you the way like an Alex Ovechkin will.

But he makes plays and create space for himself by slowing the game down. And now that I've mentioned this, Kevin, you're going to notice this. When he gets the puck and he's in a tight window, he's in a tight space, he's able to twist and turn and use his body and use his, uh, of timing to just kind of elude defenders and just open up that ace of a second, that fits of, you know, half of a second even, that allows him to gain the space to operate and make a quick pass to a teammate. Backstrom was the maestro on the wall.

I mean, he could do that better than just about anyone. I'm not going to say that Strom is in that category yet, but at his age, he's still getting better, and he's getting a lot better every year. I mean, the capitals, you want to talk about a find. I mean, they signed him off the scrap heap from Chicago. I don't know what Chicago was thinking let in Dillenstrom walk a few years ago, but he's a legit number one center. And right now, his confidence is as high as I have seen it.

You can see it when he's got the puck on his stick. He's his heads up and he's reading the play, and he knows he's going to dangle it like he's got the puck on string, and he's going to make the right play. and he did repeatedly in that Montreal series. I mean, again, I don't know where things are going to go here, but he's an early, he's a frontrunner right now for the best player on the Capitol. I mean, I know I just talked about LT, but like if this team goes a long way,

like, he could be the playoffs MVP based on the first series. Yeah, I mean, I asked you because I had no clue, but, you know, I was reading about how great he's been this year, and he had 82 points this year, 53 assists, 29 goals, in the regular season. And I just pulled up Baxter's career before I reached out to you. He only had three seasons in his entire career that were better points total wise than Strome's season this year. So I was just curious if there was a comparison. So anyway, before we get to Monday and the next series, Tommy and I were talking about this on the show yesterday. Tom Leverro and I

we're talking about just getting through this first round against Montreal was a bit of a psychological hurdle, maybe not for every player on the team and maybe not even the coach, because he hasn't been around here for everything that fans and some of the players and certainly the owner have experienced over the years of not advancing past the round you're supposed to advance past. And it had been seven years since they had won a series. My question to you is, now that they've won a series, is the pressure off heading into the Carolina series?

Or do you feel like to sort of make the most out of this season and for people to steer, you know, to keep people away from being critical of the playoff result, they have to win another series? Because they're actually an underdog in the next series. Which is all the crazy to me. I noticed that this morning. I do not understand how they are an underdog to a team. They finish double digits in terms of points. And standings points ahead of in the regular season. But, you know, Vegas feels very strongly about Carolina.

And not to go off on a little bit of a tangent here, but, I mean, if you look at, to me, statistically, the three best teams in the playoffs right now, I think Carolina and Washington are in that top three. So, yeah, I don't really understand. You know, you look, comparing Washington and Carolina, the numbers, goals for, both against power play, it's all very similar. But anyway, in terms of pressure, no, I think the pressure's on these guys.

I don't think they feel like they're playing with House money. I think they know that they won the Eastern Conference, and for long stretches we're in the mix for the president, trophy because they've caught lightning in a bottle. You don't have many years like this. I mean, the capitals have had some really, really good years where they won President's trophies and flamed out in the playoffs. And I think they will always live with some of that regret.

I think, especially the old heads, the guys like OV and Carlson and Wilson, like, they're looking around the room going, boys, this doesn't happen every year. Like, we've got an invitation to the dance, and now we're on to the second round. Let's not blow this because we have no idea what's going to be around the corner, what could happen next year. Like, we've got to maximize this. Their chemistry is off the charts. Carberry is definitely a big, big X factor in terms of just how well he manages his players and how well he manages matchups and just really a good X as a nose coach.

just knows how to communicate and think the right things. And, you know, Ovi, the 9-and-a-half years old just had an incredible season. At some point, Father time is coming for him, you know? Like, if I'm the Capitals, I'm looking at this as the best opportunity to make history, to solidify legacies since 2018. Yeah, I mean, for sure. And by the way, what a memorable season it would be if they just advanced, you know, another round or two in combination with, you know, the chasing down of Gretzky and the passing of Gretzky. Oh, yeah.

So you've talked a little bit about it in that last answer, but just what are the keys to beating Carolina? It sounds like you think the caps are a better team. So what do they need to do to win this next round best of seven? Well, they don't have a whole lot of control over how the goaltender plays, but again, if LT is the best player on the ice for long stretches, that is going to really, really matter. I think they do have the edge in goal. Carolina is an interesting team. A lot like the capitals, they don't have star players. They don't have like a big headliner, oh my God, All-Star, Five-Time All-Star. Sebastian. Ah, nice player. Really good player. but you don't think of him as like a first team, you know, all-NHL-type player. They have a lot of depth.

They like to play the game very, very fast. They make life hard on the goaltender by funneling everything to the net. You will notice, Kevin, they shoot from anywhere and everywhere at all times. They like to work the goaltender and then hunt for those second-chance opportunities and then bury them when they do find them. So I would say Goaltending, if LT can play the way that he has, that again

is a big X factor, always is this time of year. I would say for the Capitals, it's going to be boxing out in front of their own net. There's no way to suppress shots, really, against Carolina. If they are going to throw everything and the kitchen sink at you, the key is going to be

LT making the first save, putting the puck into a safe area, and then the defenseman and even the center, whoever is in that defensive coverage area, either clearing the puck, making a quick decision to get it back going the other direction, but just not allowing it to lie around and, you know, create those second-chance rebound opportunities because Carolina is the best team of league at winning those battles six feet in front of the net. So that's another one.

And, you know, the Capitol struggle for long stretches getting out of their own end against Montreux. and that really limited how much time they were able to spend in the offensive end with their better players. I think that that's going to be a challenge for them is going to be breaking the puck out against Carolina's heavy forecheck, but they've got to figure it out. They sort of figured it out towards the end of that Montreal series,

but I'd like to see them have good control over that from the start, clean breakouts, quick-offs, getting the puck going north, and not spending too much time in your own end. when the capitals got in trouble against Montreal, it was because the D-Man went to retrieve a puck, passed it up to the winger, it didn't get out. It came back in, and Montreal was able to sustain its offensive zone pressure, and I would eventually break down the capitals and get a goal.

All right, two more. Yeah, go ahead. Sorry, it didn't mean to interrupt. No, for the capitals to succeed, they're going to have to get that puck out of their own end and going up in the other direction as quickly and as efficiently as possible. All right. Last two. First, give me a player that you think, you know, is sort of an X factor in this series for the Caps. I'm going to go with Anthony Bouvillier.

Newcomer, relative newcomer to the team, obviously acquired at the deadline. He is tailor-made for these types of moments. I thought he was very good in the Montreal series. Game one, right? Game one, he had a huge goal. Absolutely. Yeah. He had a huge goal, and he also had an assist to O.C. on the overtime winner. Right. Yeah, he has a dog on a bone. He is dogged and determined and plays on his toes over his skates.

Like he invites contact. He dishes out contact. He's not a very big man, but he is tailor-made for the playoffs. He's had some great playoff runs with other teams in the past. Two years in a row for the Islanders, he was one of their best players in the postseason. For me, he's the X-factor. I thought he got to his game during some. stretches in Montreal, I think he's going to be better against Carolina.

All right. Prediction. Capitals in seven. And here's what I think is going to happen. I think everyone is going to hold serve at home. And it's going to come down to that last game in Washington. And that's what you play the entire year for, right? It's to have home ice advantage where Carberry is one of the best in terms of manipulating lineups and kind of anticipating what the other coach is trying to do and then counteracting it. Having home ice is going to be massive for the capitals. They're going to win it in seven at home in D.C. and move on to play either Florida or Toronto in the conference final. Thanks for doing this, Tark. As always, hopefully we are talking before an Eastern

conference final series in a week or so. Appreciate it. Hope you're well. Kevin, give me a call anytime. Tark-Elbashir, everybody. And I guess we'll find out tonight after the Winnipeg St. St. Louis Game 6 when Washington Carolina game one will be. If you get a chance to rate and review the podcast, especially on Apple and Spotify, it would be much appreciated. And also follow us on Apple and Spotify. Just hit the plus button or the follow button. That helps us out a lot as well.

All right. Kentucky Derby tomorrow. Our guy Eddie C next, after these words from a few of our sponsors. Hey, guys, how about that decision you have to make sometimes? when you're out with friends at night and that decision typically comes down to this. Am I going to have a really fun night or am I going to

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MyBooky.ag or mybooky.com promo code Kevin, D.C. So the run for the roses is tomorrow down at Churchill Downs. Joining me from there right now is my guy, Eddie C. Eddie's a bit of a local legend around these parts when it comes to handicapping horse racing, and he's been joining us for a few years before Triple Crown events. Before we get into the horses that are running in this race and the ones that you like, for those that aren't paying attention, and I'm one of them, give us the big storylines down in Louisville. Well, Kevin is always, thanks for having me.

It's always a pleasure and an honor to be on your show and a shout out to the K-town boys back home. But, yeah, there's a couple really nice storylines about this derby. Bob Baffert, after a three-year ban, is back in the Kentucky Derby field, and, you know, Bob's arguably one of the best, if not the best trainers of all time. You got a couple of really nice horses from Japan, that are in this race, which is very interesting. And then we've also got a storyline of a couple of horses have already scratched out of the race,

so it's allowing and also eligible to run. And there may be some other scratches coming up later today or even tomorrow morning. And then we also have the weather. So a lot of little niches and stuff that are going on right now. So Baffert's return is obviously a big part of tomorrow. For those that haven't been paying attention to Bob Baffert in the last few years, just give us a minute or two on what happened and sort of the scene with him coming back to the derby. I think he's been at the preteness and maybe even the Belmont in recent years,

but just talk specifically about Baffert's return to Churchill Downs. I mean, first off, you know, whenever you get to the top of the game, you know, the whole New York Yankee syndrome and, you know, and today's day, though, like the Kansas City Chief Syndrome and things like that, when you're at the top, everybody wants to take you down. You know, Baffert won two triple crowns, one with American Pharaoh and one with Justify. So what happened was there was this horse called Medina Spirit that won the Derby a few years back, and he ended up failing a drug test afterwards. It wasn't an illegal drug. It was just an overage of a legal drug that was issued. And they just eventually held it against them. There was a lot of politicking behind the scenes thing.

And then Kentucky just took a stand against them. So, and it got very contentious. And, you know, I don't think Bafford handled it perfectly, but I also don't think that Kentucky and the horse racing industry handled it perfectly either. So it's just one of those things that happens in life, I guess. All right, let's get to the field. It's typically the biggest field is this first leg of the Triple Crown. How many horses and how many legitimately outstanding horses?

in this race? We have a full field is 20 horses. We had a full field. We've had two defections. We had Bob Bafford actually had two horses in the field, one of them. Rodriguez, which was the number four horse

got scratched. And then there's another horse called Grande, which was the only horse entered by Todd Pletcher, which is arguably the other great trainer in the industry, and owned by a very well- known owner, Mike Rapoli, who own vitamin water.

But anyhow, so right now we're down to 19, and there could be one or two more defections from veterinarian-type scratches in the field. So we're still going to have 18 courses or so. And some of them, go ahead. Now, I was just going to say, is there a horse in the field that the sports really excited about, like a potential triple crown run in store? I'm excited about one horse. I don't know if the whole industry sports world is excited about it, but I think there is a superstar in the race,

and I'll get to it in a second. I mean, it's also interesting that there's two Japanese horses, and I think one of them is very exciting to think about that could be a superstar, because Japan's been sending over top horses to the Derby and the Breeders' Cup every year for the last five, six years. They haven't quite got there, but, you know, last year, they just came third by a nose. I mean, by a nose is third, second, and first were separated by a nose. So, but, yeah, I like journalism quite a bit. journalism, interesting story is a trainer is Michael McCarthy, who's an ex-jockey, and the jockey of the horse is a jockey named Umberto Rospoli, and Umberto's Italian, but he raced in Japan for the past,

you know, prior to coming over to the U.S., raced in Japan as a jockey for five years. So he's actually good friends with the two jockeys that are riding the Japanese horses, and all three horses are right next to each other in the field. So, you know, just a little interesting storyline behind that. But journalism is a horse that legally bred. He's had his sire is a horse called Curlin, who Curlin didn't win the derby, but Curlin did win horse of the year, and is one of the best sires in the industry. and he's also won four out of five races. He has the fastest figures in the race. But, you know, when you have 18 horses in the race,

you've got to hope that you get a clean trip. If he gets a clean trip, I don't think they can beat him, to be honest. And he'll probably be favored, but it won't be too low overpriced. He's still going to be around 3 to 1, I think. All right. Let's get to, you know, who you like and some of the bets that you would recommend making have at it. Floor is yours. All right.

Well, what I'm going to do is I'm obviously going to bet journalism to win. I'm not going to bet him to win in place. I'm strictly betting him to win. I will do an exact box with three horses. And that's going to be journalism, one of the Japanese horses that's called Luxor Cafe. And then the last horse to get in because it scratches is a horse called Biazza. Biazza ran second to journalism in their last race, and it was a very close race. So I think those are the three horses that I like, well, they're the ones I like the most.

There's going to be a lot of disagreements because there's a couple of really good horses, one called Sandman, another one called Sovereignty that a lot of people like. but I'm going to take those three horses and box them. I'd love to give you numbers, but the numbers are changing because of the scratches, so I'm giving you the names. Yeah, I mean, it looks like journalism is going to go off somewhere around three to one as of now, right? Yeah, it does. It does.

And Luxor Cafes probably, and Baezza, they'll probably, those two are going to be in the top four or five choices. So they're probably going to be somewhere around 8, 10 to 1 is my guess. but I'm going to key off of those three horses. And then as far as for people that want to play a trifecta or a superfecta, I'm going to key those three horses first and second, and then I will play them over these horses. And it's a list of like eight horses. It's citizen, then we're talking about third and fourth place.

Citizen Bull, final gambit, admire day, Tona, which is the other Japanese horse. Burnham Square, publisher, Tistastic, Sandman, Sovereignty, and maybe the best name of a horse in the field, chunk of gold. Weather is potentially a factor? How does that impact everything? Rain is definitely going to be forecasted. They're calling for over an inch of rain tomorrow.

That helps his breeding. It helps Luxor Cafe. Luxor Cafe has actually run in the wet, on a wet track three times already. Journalism never has, but he's bred for it. And Baezza is also bred for the wet track. But, you know, it's going to help a handful of horses, but it's also going to hurt a handful of horses. So, you know, it's, we'll see what happens. Hopefully we get lucky.

Churchill, the track itself, does, hold water very well, so it's not usually a muddy mess like other tracks. All we can do is hope and pray and wish for a safe trip for all the horses and jockeys and that we get a good race out of it. And hopefully I give you the winner this year. I don't think you've steered us wrong too much over the years. Appreciate it as always. Take care.

Appreciate it, Kevin. Thanks so much. and one of my favorite weekends of the year, because on Sunday after the Derby, I will be at the F1 Miami Grand Prix rooting on my team McLaren guys. Look at you, hanging out with the high rollers per usual. Thanks for doing this, as always. Good luck tomorrow. Thank you, sir.

Eddie C. At Notebook Picks on X and on Twitter. Back on Monday, enjoy the weekend, everybody.