The Kevin Sheehan Show - Is Snyder Actually Selling?

Episode Date: November 2, 2022

Kevin on the breaking news that Dan Snyder has retained Bank of America to assist in the sale of the Washington Commanders. Is he selling the whole team or just a minority stake in the franchise? That's the big question. The man who broke the story Mike Ozanian from Forbes jumped on the pod to help answer those questions. Also, Stanford Steve Coughlin was a guest talking College Football Playoff Rankings, the NFL, and more.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheehan Show. Here's Kevin. A completely different show than the one that was planned earlier. And that is because of the breaking news of the day. And the breaking news of the day and this podcast today is brought to you by MyBooky.

Go to mybooky.com, MyBooky.ag. Use my promo code, Kevin, D.C. And they'll match your first deposit, dollar for dollar, all the way up to $1,000. Also, don't forget to rate us and review us on Spotify Apple and anywhere else you can rate us and review us on Apple. Five stars, if you're so inclined, and a quick one to two sentence review really helps us out. No Cooley on the show today. That was planned, but he had a long trip back to Wyoming after five days here for his friend Mike's wedding. I got to spend two days with him.

We had a great time. It was great to see him. It's been a while since we've seen each other. he is one of my favorite people by far in my life. It was exhausting at times, but we had a great time, and he flew back late yesterday. We'll see if we can get him on before the end of the week, although I know he's got a trip out west planned this weekend. But I also recorded an interview before all of this breaking news with Stanford, Steve Coughlin,

Scott's sidekick co-host from Sports Center, where we talked college football rankings, college football in general, and also some NFL as well, you'll hear that at the end of the show today. The breaking news came from Mike Ozanian at Forbes magazine. Mike is going to jump on with us in about five minutes. He is expected to call me here at any moment. So Mike Ozanian, who broke this story that Dan Snyder has retained Bank of America to sell the franchise, Mike will be our guest here in five minutes.

Now, is he selling the whole team or is he just selling a minority stake? That's the big question, and it's unclear. Hopefully, Mike will be able to clear some of that up. What the team did announce were two things. One, they put out a statement, quote, Dan and Tanya Snyder and the Washington commanders announced today that they have hired Bank of America's securities to consider potential transactions.

The Snyders remain committed to the team, all of its employees, and its countless fans to putting the best product on the field and continuing the work to set the gold standard for workplaces in the NFL. Now, Ben Standing, among others, got a clarification to that statement as to whether or not they're selling the whole team or just a minority stake. And the statement from the team was, we are exploring all options.

So, upon hearing this news a little while ago, and before I've talked to Mike Ozanian from Forbes, I've got a few thoughts. Number one, the statement that they are exploring all options is good news because it's obviously better than them announcing that they are just hiring Bank of America to sell a minority stake in the team. They didn't say that, and they said upon clarification, they're exploring all options. So that's good news. So, you know, when I first heard it, I thought, well, you know, we've talked about them selling a minority stake for a while. ever since he bought out Dwight Schar, Fred Smith, and Bob Rothman by borrowing money from the league and potentially other sources, maybe even Bank of America, and got the debt waiver, the debt limit waived.

We've been talking about that he's going to have to raise money to pay off that loan. He's going to have to raise money to start the process of perhaps needing every nickel to either revamp FedEx Field or build something new in landover if the current situation of none of the jurisdictions giving him a penny continues to be the case, which I expect it to be. So the news that they're exploring all options is good news, but it really doesn't mean necessarily that option number one for them is selling the franchise in its entirety. selling a minority stake to pay off that debt, fund operations, which they may be having some issues with,

having funds go towards a future stadium. That may be option number one. They may be able to get a massive valuation, even for a minority stake. Now, I wonder whether or not anybody would be interested in being a minority partner with Dan Snyder. I question whether or not there would be somebody interested in that. I think a lot of NFL teams could easily sell a minority share.

But working with Dan Snyder in this franchise could be problematic. But if it isn't, it's very possible that the spread in valuations, the valuation of the team when he bought out, Schar, Rothman, and Smith, and the current valuation of what, say, a 40% stake in the franchise would go for may be big enough that option one could be selling the minority stake. Of course, there's always the possibility that he has come to the realization

that it's not going to work for him here. I find that to be tough, but there's the possibility that's, you know, one of these investigations, you know, leads to what Jim Mersey believes, well, could happen or should happen or should be, has merit, as he said, that maybe there will be a vote to oust him as the owner.

And the subsequent fight and the cost to that fight for him in defending himself, maybe he realizes it won't be worth it now. Maybe that's what he's come to the realization about. And we'll end up moving on and selling the whole team. Maybe the family doesn't want to go through this anymore. I mean, I saw Michael Phillips remind everybody that Tanya Snyder was booed at home a few weeks ago on alumni weekend. You know, with bags over people's heads, sell the team that had to be taken off, signs that weren't allowed. They've seen this.

You know, they have felt it for a while. It'd be hard for them not to. So perhaps he and the family don't want to go through this anymore. Or there could be something else with the loan that he took out to buy out the minority shareholders. He may be on the hook for the loan right now and need to raise the money to pay it off. I think there are a lot of things in play right now. You know, I really do. Obviously, I hope what most of you hope,

and that is he's retained Bank of America to help him sell the team for, you know, $7 billion to somebody, Bezos, somebody that can afford that. And we're going to get a new owner. But I'm not convinced. It's possible that the conversation upcoming with Mike Ozanian might change my mind and I might become convinced

that he's going to sell the whole team, that he's finally realized he can't, you know, do this anymore or he can't afford the fight with the rest of the owners. But I don't know. I really don't know what this means, but it is a step in the right direction, potentially. You know, you can't really sell the team without telling everybody it's available. And in most of these cases, they retain investment banks to seek out and then, you know, negotiate the deal for, by the way, quite the fees on, you know, a $7 billion sale. Bank of America will not only get their loan money back, they will get a massive commission on brokering the sale of this team.

But even if they're just brokering the minority share stake, there will be a hell of a commission involved as well. Anyway, Mike Ozanian is scheduled to call in, so that's what you're going to hear next. right after these words from a few of our sponsors. Well, the guy that got all of this started today was Mike Ozenian. Mike writes for Forbes. He wrote this story. Dan Snyder hires Bank of America to sell Washington commanders. And Mike was nice enough to make some time for us right now.

You can follow Mike on Twitter at Mike O-Z-A-N-I-A-N. So you've obviously made a splash here in our area. And I would start off by asking you the question that was the first question that came to my mind when I read this story. And that is, has Dan Snyder retained Bank of America to sell the franchise in its entirety? Or has he retained Bank of America to sell a minority stake in the franchise? I think it's going to have to do with how much interest there is and what the price would be. So if Jeff Bezos were to come knocking and say, I'll give you. you $8 billion for the team, I think they'd strongly consider selling all of it. On the other hand,

if someone comes along and offers to buy a 10% or 5% stake and they get some cash for that that they could use to put back into the team or perhaps towards a new stadium, they consider that too. From my knowledge, from talking to people familiar with what's going on, all possibilities are being explored. And I think you're going to see a lot of very interested names in looking at this team, ranging from people that have been mentioned in the past like Jeff Bezos to perhaps even someone like Elon Musk. Wow, that is a name that hasn't necessarily been mentioned.

Obviously, Bezos had. I want to come back to that. Why now do you think that they've decided to do this? I think a couple of things. I think, number one, I think that they've started on a very good path of successfully rebranding the team. Now, you and I follow this both as fans and from the business side. I'm going to focus more on the business side. As much as some people may not like the name commanders, the fact is their sponsorship revenue is

soaring, probably up 30% in 2022 versus 2021. As you know, they just did that huge deal with Seatgeek, which is the richest sponsorship deal in the team's history. Some of this will, of course, depend on how the team does on the field. They've brought in a lot of new executives and personnel the last few years. So if I'm looking at this as an outside investor, To me, the arrow is pointing up in terms of where the business of the Washington commanders is headed. It's a good time if you own a team to raise some capital. Okay, well, you're talking, though, specifically about him raising, you know, capital by selling a minority stake in staying on as the majority owner, that the timing on that is good.

But my response would be that as long as he owns it. the franchise, the arrows never really pointing upwards. So could he attract a minority shareholder that would then, you know, be beholden to Dan still being the majority stakeholder in the team? Yeah, I think not only does it have to do with the price, but one of the things that's increasingly happening is that outside investors are coming into the NFL because it can often lead to a path that helps their existing businesses. So the NFL, you know, we can't just look at it anymore as ticket money and TV money. It's highly valuable intellectual property.

What deals does it get you into in terms of technology? What deals does it enable perhaps you to be linked with in sports betting, with a company like sports radar or draft kings. What other doors does it open? You know, Amazon shed light on this, right, when it came into the NFL with streaming. Amazon Prime subscribers is really the goal to increase with the NFL partnership with streaming.

That's the connection there. What other business opportunities could someone have as a minority partner tied to the NFL and the commanders? I think this is a growing business opportunity in the NFL tying to that powerful brand. I understand that, and I think that makes a lot of sense for most franchises. I just don't think it makes much sense for this franchise. I sometimes wonder how much everybody really understands how much of this fan base is gone and won't come back until he's gone, which makes, you know, the opportunity here perhaps

different than other NFL markets, although obviously the demographics of this market are pretty attractive. But I want to get to what I think you are driving towards, or at least in, and I'll try to get what you really think with respect to what will happen and what kind of sale will take place. But if it is a minority share, you know, that he is really looking at as option number one, will it come down to something like there being a significant spread between what he bought his previous minority shareholders, Dwight Schar, Bob Rothman, and Fred Smith out at, which I think was like $875 million, and something much greater in terms of valuation for, say, a 40% stake now, so that not only he can pay off his debt, but then he has, you know, funds for operations, future stadium. etc. How much do you think that's in play in terms of if there's a significant valuation difference, he would go the route of looking to just sell a minority stake? Yeah, I think that's a fair point. I think that you would see some of that spread

based on the fact that there's a lot of optimism on what's going to happen with NFL Sunday ticket. As you know, the current value of that to the league is one point. $1.5 billion a year. Perhaps that gets to two. As you know, and have talked about, there's also the possibility of the NFL doing some kind of a deal for its other media assets, whether it be NFL.com, NFL+,

NFL+, so there's upside in that. So looking at it, if you're a minority investor, you're seeing all these other opportunities for an increase in value. and I think that would play into your point about a higher valuation spread for a minority stake today than where Dan was two years ago. And I think a lot of that optimism we saw with the $4.65 billion price of the Broncos.

And we saw even just with the Raiders, I broke a story a few months ago about how, Mark Davis had received a valuation of, I think it was over $7 billion for a small piece of the Raiders. So that all points towards exactly what you're talking about, which is a much higher valuation for a minority stake today than two years ago in the commanders. Yeah, I'm hearing you. I mean, the minority share stake this time would generate a lot. lot more in terms of valuation than it did when he bought out his minority shareholders. So there would be a huge spread. So I have more questions for you, but I kind of want to cut to the chase right now and get your gut feel. Do you think that's the path he'll go down? Is that your hunch that

he's going to sell a minority stake, generate a lot more capital than he borrowed to buy off his minority shareholders, capital that he would then have also to fund operations to, build a new stadium potentially or start that process of building a new stadium, especially if he's got to fund it himself in Landover, where the stadium currently exists. Or do you think that, you know, it will result, this will result in him selling the franchise in its entirety? Honestly, I think it's going to come down to what offers he gets. let's not forget that, as you know, NFL rules require that a managing partner, as the guy who runs the team comes in, if he buys the team controlling interest,

you have to put 30% down. So in terms of the whole team, there aren't a real, you know, heck of a lot of guys that can do that with that worth. So that would go towards your point about leading towards a minority stake. On the other hand, it only takes one. I also don't have the feeling that there's enough support among NFL owners to oust, to try to oustam Snyder. I don't think that, from what I've seen, that there's, you know, enough there, for a lack of putting it another way. and I also get a sense that, you know, since he's doing this and he's hired a bank,

I don't know that even that that would, that could be something that sort of puts the kibosh on any movement like that and that he's out in front of it. Now, I don't know the answer because I haven't spoken to him about any of this, but if I'm, if I had any, if I had an ass, said like this. And one thing people forget, Washington, D.C. and the area where the commanders sit, notwithstanding all the point you made about, you know, depletion of fans and all of that, it's the highest net worth metro area in the country, in the country. You know, you're talking about D.C., northern Virginia. You're talking about an area that, unlike many other parts of the U.S., You know, if the stock market collapses, we get in a deep recession. Wall Street feels a lot of pain.

Not so much in the D.C. area where we have a lot of wealthy lobbyists. You know, it's a highly coveted area. So I think that the net worth of that area is very appealing. As is, don't forget, he also owns a lot of land. You know, if you're valuing the team at $5.6 billion, like I did, there's also 260 acres around FedEx Field. There's like 150 acres around where their headquarters are. So he had some very, very attractive assets in a very, very high net worth area of the country.

Oh, I don't think there's any doubt. Everything you just said is so true. I mean, we've talked about it for years, you know, despite whatever you guys have had as valuations for teams, we all understand that that doesn't necessarily mean that that's what the sale price would be. This market is so attractive and there's more demand than supply. These things don't come on the market very often. I mean, what do you think the sale price if he sold the 100% of the team, what would it go for? What would the value be? My best hunch is that he may not sell the entire

team unless he got something approaching $8 billion. That would be my hunt. So the market, the group of people that could pay $8 billion, you mentioned Jeff Bezos, you mentioned Elon Musk, and you said there are other names. Who are the other names that maybe we haven't thought about? You know what? I haven't thought much beyond a lot of others, but I'd be looking for billionaires, people on the Forbes 400 Rich List. I'd be looking for names on there of really sharp entrepreneurs, perhaps in the tech space. people who would love to be aligned with the brand and also the politics of Washington, D.C., and what's going on there.

The only other thing I could say beyond that is that you're probably talking not about a large group of people. And probably if you bought the whole team, I think this would be a team if you came in that your minority investors, You know, your smaller investors people with, let's say, two, three, four percent stake would have to be a broad range of people ranging from Hollywood and entertainment to politics to Wall Street. I mean, it would just be holes because the proximity of the commanders to the New York City area is also very close. You know, geography is a big part of this. You know, one of the things that a lot of some people may not realize is that the Walton family had been trying to buy the Broncos for 10 years. And, you know, when the Panthers came up for sale, the Carolina Panthers, they weren't interested at all. Why?

Because they spent all their time skiing in Aspen. Right. You know, they wanted the Broncos. And when you have $50 billion, you know, what's the problem with paying $300 million than the next highest bidder? You know, no big deal. Buy that. Skied during the day. Go to the game at night. No problem.

Well, at $8 billion, you've got to come up with $2.4 billion in cash up front. So that does limit the audience a little bit. So I want to come back to what I think is actually the lead here. What I kind of just asked you, and I'm not sure you completely answered, and maybe you don't have an answer. And that's fine, too. but your story creates this feeling of, my God, we have finally arrived at the day that we've all sort of hoped would happen.

And that is he's going to sell the team. But it's very possible that he's not going to sell the team. It's possible that he's just going to raise money through the sale of a minority stake in the franchise. Well, you could also get another scenario. I apologize for interrupting. No, it's fine. I just wanted to say, you know, you know, you and you and I've seen this, I think increasingly with recent sales, it could be somebody that comes in and says, you know, I'll buy 20% today with a pathway to control over, say, the next five years. Right.

I don't know how you know how the fan, but we're seeing that, let's say, with the national predators in the NHL. We're seeing it with the Cleveland Guardians and baseball. I think also we're seeing it with the Minnesota Timberwolves and the NBA, which is also a possibility. And I get a sense that that scenario, again, this is just my opinion, maybe the most likely, if no grade, as they call a truly centa billionaire. They call them investment banking whale, if no whale were to emerge. And then lastly, to your point about ownership, you know, you and I have been following this space for a long time. I can't recall maybe you can where there's ever been this many teams on the market. I mean, in North America, we've got the Phoenix Suns, Nashville Predators, which apparently in the process of being sold,

the Los Angeles Angels and baseball, the Washington Nationals in baseball, the Ottawa, the Ottawa senators, in the NHL, and probably also the Baltimore Orioles. I mean, you've got all these teams, and I'm just kind of curious, I guess, because this is really my space, the valuations, how that could play into all end up playing into all of this. I guess I would lean towards it, I think, out loud probably not too much, because among all those franchises, the commanders are such the biggest trophy. Sure.

But, you know, one never knows. You know what, man, look, I feel you when it comes down to the team, right? I mean, look, I've lived in New York and the New York area my whole life. Both my parents grew up in New York City. So I grew up a huge, huge New York giant fan, right? So when I'm growing up in the late 60s, the Giants were terrible when I was a little kid and first started following football. and all I could ever hear about from my aunts and uncles

as we sat around the dinner table talking about football was how great the Giants of the 50s and early 60s were and I just couldn't believe it because my Giants were terrible. And I was at that New York Giant game when the plane flew over the stadium saying 18 years of lousy football, enough is enough, and fans were burning their tickets in the parking lot.

I mean, people weren't going. They were burning their season tickets and they wanted Mara in the worst possible way to sell that team. Well, next thing you know, you know, a decade later, they went in the Super Bowl,

less than a decade later, and, you know, it was, you know, a complete turnaround of the franchise. So, you know,

I'm not going to sit here and pretend I know the D.C. market as well as you because I don't, but I just also think that sometimes we tend to think

that something can't be turned around as quickly as maybe it can. If, if, if they get a winner. Just throwing that out there,

I wouldn't bury this team out there because I've seen it and lived it as a diehard fan. I think there's a difference between the Maras, especially the elder, much elder and deceased Mara versus Dan Snyder. I think it's apples and oranges. I don't think, honestly, in the history of this town, taking politicians out of the equation,

there's anybody that's ever been this despised. And it's because, really, ultimately, this was such a unifier for the city. It was such, well, you know, from an NFL standpoint, it was one of the marquee franchises in the sport, and it has become the bottom feeder in the sport, and it's because it's been run into the ground. And then on top of that, you've got the behavior issues,

as well. Look, the last two years have been this constant discussion of, will this report, you know, produce something. Hopefully this one will. Hopefully this one will. And, you know, I think there's a lot of skepticism because it's the, you know, whether or not the owners would vote him out. But there has been this thought recently that maybe somebody in the league like Jerry would go to him and say, look, there's only one thing you can do. It's never going to work with you there. You've lost most of what you had, and they're not coming back as long as you're there. And for a while, I think we all felt like what happened with you guys.

All of a sudden, the Giants with Bill Parcells became Super Bowl contenders and became a great franchise. You know, all the while, by the way, their chief rival being the Redskins, you know, with Joe Gibbs as the coach and Jack Kent Cook is the owner. But it's been one meddlesome mistake after one toxic. workplace allegation after another, it's been not only the losing, but it's been the behavior that's driven everybody away. And maybe that's the difference between where we are and where you were, you know, kind of in the 70s leading up to the revival of that franchise in the 80s, is that the behavior has been so off-putting that people, I don't know, will ever

embrace him. So I think there's only one solution, and I'm not sure you've answered it. And by the way I didn't expect that you would answer and I hope you would but you laid out the three possibilities a minority you know uh sale uh a potential staging of you know 20 percent now with a path to uh by you know by the way that's what ted leontas did with ab poland as far as the capitals and wizards were concerned good point good one yeah great point and and then you know hopefully what everybody's hoping for is that he just comes to the realization that eight billion dollars you know, more than offsets the pain of losing the franchise. And by the way, the fight to save it and the fight to get it back may not be worth it at some point.

Can you think of anything? You know what, man, I just don't know a lot more, you know. I wish I knew more. I'm going to try and stay on top of it, but I just don't have a lot more. And, you know, I don't, by the way, you know, you made me think of something else, which is, you know, you brought up Ted Leone says, you know, I don't know if anyone has ever asked him, like, especially in the local papers down there about the commanders, but that to me would be a guy that would be very well suited as an owner. I know his teams haven't won a lot. The caps have won championship. But in terms of the future and building a sports empire slash platform, you know, he's a guy.

really knows what's happening. Yeah, well, he and Rubenstein apparently are, you know, among the front runners for the nationals. So, as you know, the learners are selling them. You mentioned that earlier. Anyway, Mike Ozanian, everybody from Forbes. I really appreciate the time on a day that I know is very busy for you. I would imagine that we will have a chance to do it again somewhere down the road. Thanks so much, Mike. Oh, no, my pleasure. Always, always enjoy chatting with you. hope to do it again soon. All right, thanks to Mike.

Up next, something I had recorded long before all of this news broke earlier this morning, a conversation with my good friend Stanford, Steve, on the college football playoff, but we talk some NFL as well. That's next right after these words from a few of our sponsors. College football playoff rankings, the initial college football playoff rankings, are out. They came out last night and joining me on the podcast. right now is my good friend Stanford Steve Coughlin at Stanford Steve 82.

Of course, Steve is the sidekick slash co-host. I don't even know what you call yourself as part of Scott's show. What is your actual, I mean, do you bill yourself or do they bill you as the co-host of the Scott Van Pelt show? Definitely not. There's no co-host. There's one host. I'm a contributor. I'll be a contributor.

The contributor? Well, you're a significant contributor, and of course, you are the co-host of the Stanford Steve and the Bear podcast with Chris Felica. And you can read Stanford Steve and all of his picks every late week, Thursday or Friday, whenever they're out on ESPN.com. So I actually, you know, if you've got some time, I want to talk to you about a couple of other things. But obviously the reason I asked you was to discuss these first rankings that are out for those that missed them last. night. Tennessee was one. Ohio State was two ahead of Georgia at three. Clemson came in four ahead of Michigan, who was five. Alabama came in six. They were ahead of TCU. The undefeated Hornfrogs at 8 and O came in at 7. So let me just start with your takeaways from what we saw last night.

Yeah, we started, breaking our things, Kevin, you know, a couple weeks back knowing that this was coming. And I've had, I've gone based on body of work because when we're in week eight, nine, I still think, you know, Ohio State went and played their second road game last week. You know, they played their first true road game. No offense to the people at Michigan State, but Penn State brings them to the table that nobody else did. does. And I wanted to see Ohio State in a cuff environment. I went back, watched a tape against Iowa. Their offensive lines didn't play well against Iowa. Now, Iowa is like no other team in the country. We know this, right? They have a great defense and a pathetic offense. But the defense caused problems for Ohio State. They only ran for 66 yards. And, you know, it was a game at half time.

You know, when Iowa just kept turning the ball over. So I wanted to see Ohio State go on the road, face some adversity. They did show me a lot. They do. have some difference makers on defense, and they overcame a lead on the road. Not many teams could do it with the ease that they did in Ryan Day showed. He's my favorite play caller in his sport. I think he's just a cut throw, man. Like, he's going to go after. You saw Penn State take lead in the fourth quarter. I think it was a six-play drive in Ohio State scores, and they never look back from there. So going into last week, I didn't have Ohio State in my top four. like I said, Body of Work.

I had Tennessee 1, I had TCU 2, I had Georgia 3, and I had Clemson 4. And now after last week, I think Clemson's resume takes a little bit of a hit because of the while I'm Wake Forest look. Now, that's not their fault, but that's what we have to do when we're not all the way through the season. So looking at last night, I think TCU gets a brutal, brutal take there, being behind a one-lost team. And then when they asked Boo Corrigan, the, you know, the spokesperson and the chairman, he says when it got close with Alabama and TCU, we went with a more balanced team. And that's a bunch of crap to me because at the top, you have Tennessee, Georgia, and Ohio State. Tennessee is not a balanced team.

I get it. They're number one in my book. But you can't use that argument so close in the rankings for one team. and then not use it at the top. So there are holes in it. You know, people say that they do it for a reason. I don't believe that. I just feel like you have to realize that Boogorg is in that room.

And he might not, like, he's got to be the spokesperson. He might not be an agreement with what the rankings are, but that's the agreement they came to with the committee. So there's still a lot of stuff going on. I do think Michigan's getting in a tough spot. I've said that from the beginning with a back. out of copper schedule, they have a one-game feast. Or I shouldn't say that.

They get Illinois in a couple weeks. They get Ohio State and then obviously the Big Ten title game. But I think the loser of Ohio State, Michigan is in a tough spot. Yeah, the funny thing is their start to their schedule, which was horrible, included a win over Yukon, which has shockingly played really well of late in one, I don't know, three or four games here recently. But it's funny, as you were talking about the Iowa-Ohio-Ohio State game, I did not realize. I mean, Iowa was just one of the best defensive teams in the country, and they are completely inept offensively.

In watching that game, I never for a moment thought that Iowa could be competitive with Ohio State, but they held Ohio State to two yards per carry, which is interesting. And then Ohio State, you know, exploded there at Penn State at the end, which was pretty wild. So I was, I guessed Tennessee at one before last night, but I wasn't so sure of it, but they clearly, you would agree, have the best overall resume of wins at this point. No doubt about it. And that's why they're number one of my poll. That's why I think there's nothing wrong to have that criteria. You have an SEC team. I mean, say what you want.

Early on the year, you go to pit, you win an overtime game. that's still a good win in my book. You go to LSU. Now, that's the game where everybody held in the highest regard. LSU had a bunch of players out in that game. That is not the LSU team that went to Florida and that I'll also beat Ole Miss. So when I think about Tennessee, I got no qualms about it. They beat Alabama.

They have plenty of wins. What they did at Kentucky, who's a decent team, they just dismantled them. So, no, I have no problems with Tennessee at once. So, you know, in watching the show last night with Reese and all of the guys, they, you know, everybody kept saying, you know, Kirk says it every year with the first show, look, there's so much football to be played. And we've had these conversations for the last few years running. We know how much more football there is left to play. And that these initial rankings don't mean much, okay, because, you know, Tennessee is going to play Georgia. And then one of those two teams is more likely than not going to play Alabama, although Alabama LSU Saturday night, I would,

I think Jaden Daniels is playing really well, and I think Kelly's by far in a way, the best coach they've had there, and I think that could be a game. I still think Alabama, the result they had against Texas A&M is damning, because A&M is bad, and they almost lost to A&M. But here's the one thing that I would say was meaningful last night. And that is this.

TCU coming in at 7th behind Alabama means, to me, Tell me if you think I'm wrong. And I didn't hear the guys discuss this last night, that if TCU goes undefeated, there is still a chance that they would not be in the playoff. And I'll explain. First of all, let me just say, I don't think they're going to go undefeated. You know, they've been in deficits of 18 and 17 points in two of their, you know, four ranked win games that they won.

And, you know, I could see them losing in Austin. I could see them losing at Baylor. I could see them losing in a Big 12 championship game. But if they were to go undefeated, we know that Ohio State Michigan winner, more likely than not, assuming they win the Big Ten title game, and that's not a gimmie this year because Illinois is a good football team, they're in. We know that Saturday's winner, Tennessee, Georgia, as long as they win out, is in, no matter what happens in the SEC title game.

You would agree with that, right? Correct. Okay, so that's Ohio State Michigan winner, Tennessee, Georgia, Saturday winner. If Clemson goes undefeated, they're in. I mean, they just put them in at four. I think they're the one team that doesn't pass the eye test more than any other of these teams in the top seven, but them debuting at four and still having Notre Dame, by the way, who's playing better, and then potentially a one-loss North Carolina team that could be close to the top 10 in these rankings

when they get to an ACC championship game, Clemson would be in, correct? I would think so. I want to see how, you know, I haven't dove in on North Carolina with the metrics. But yeah, it looks, I still think Carolina has a couple tricky games knowing that their defense is suspect.

Okay, but let's say they go in as a one-loss team and they're 11th in the rankings. Clemson beating Carolina would be better. than any win that TCU would have the rest of the way. So what I'm getting at is this, and I was surprised that because TCU came at 7th, somebody didn't do this. Tennessee, Georgia in, Michigan, Ohio State winner in.

Clemson runs the table in. Well, Alabama being ahead of TCU means that if Alabama runs the table, winning the SEC title against Tennessee or Georgia, that they're in over TCU who goes undefeated, because Alabama would have one. wins over LSU and then either Tennessee or Georgia, they're already ahead of TCU. They would stay there. So TCU would be out as an undefeated team. That's the way I see it today, which is why to me it was

significant that TCU was behind Alabama last night. Your thoughts? Yeah, the old saying of controlling your own destiny is pretty evident that TCU does not. Exactly. You know, people could say, you got to win your games. But I still think, like, you know, going back to the first year, we saw Ohio State jump Baylor in TCU that year. So they do have some things. My problem is that with LSU ranks so high as a two-loss team, where are they if they lose to Alabama?

How far do they drop? Because now they're going to be three-loss, and the highest-ranked three-loss team is Texas, who just is loved by the metrics. So that's where I think. the Alabama factor comes in. And the problem with Alabama, I knew they were going to be ranked ahead of TCU,

but they literally have a lot of questionable wins. I mean, you mentioned the A&M win, Texas wins. Yeah. Arkansas. I mean, they made Arkansas sound like, you know, the Kansas City Chiefs last night on the show. That's a flawed team. That's not as good as football team.

They're not even in this top 25. Right. So I still have questions. about how this is going to play out. But for the first time, this is an Alabama team that has not played up to the Alabama standard. And I just don't understand

when we're only in week 10 why we just can't have all the undefeated teams ranked higher than the one-lost teams. And you go back to that, Alabama's resume, what's going to look like? I think those big 12 teams don't get enough credit. Like, Baylor's already got three losses. I think Baylor's a really good football team.

I would put them up against LSU. I think they can beat TCU. I think Texas can beat TCU, so it may be a moot point, and it probably will be. But TCU, if they beat those teams and they run the team, they're not going to get as much credit as they should be. That'd be an unbelievable run because you have these big 12 teams who I think top to bottom, I would put, there's not a bad, bad team in that conference. And if you run the table, because you play everybody in that conference, too. So that's the different dynamic that I had a problem with,

and the boy, the Pac-12 teams are listed. That's also a joke. Yeah, I mean, the thing about Alabama beating in LSU who would become a three-loss team and would drop. The problem is Alabama, if we're saying that they win the SEC title, they would have wins over Ole Miss on the road, which is still to come, and the Tennessee-Georgia winners. So that's going to trump no matter what TCU does as an undefeated team.

I don't mean to make this focused on TCU. It's just my point that I thought it was significant last night that Alabama came in ahead of TCU because it sets the stage for an undefeated team potentially being left out of the final four. I mean, there's so much football. I mean, Clemson could lose an ACC title game. They could lose this week at Notre Dame.

You know, somebody in the Big Ten could lose to Illinois for all we know. But that drives my next question, which is the Big Ten. I think the eye test, for me anyway, Michigan is clearly better than Clemson. Ohio State is clearly better than Clemson when I watch Clemson. I don't think Clemson should have beaten Syracuse. I think the third and 25 bullshit, you know, late hit out of bounds. Change that game. And if you don't get that, Syracuse wins that game.

And that we're not even talking about Clemson at this point. They have quarterback issues. They're not that good, I don't think. I think they're okay on defense, but I think every team in that top seven is better than Clemson. I think Michigan right now in a neutral field, what would they be favored by over Clemson? They'd be favored. Oh, God. Oh, definitely. Maybe even a whole touchdown. Ohio State would be double digits over Clemson right now, right? Yes. So the loser of the Ohio State Michigan game, to me is going to be better than an undefeated Clemson team.

But it won't matter, right? I don't think so, because then they have everything they want. They have a non-conference championship winner. They have an undefeated team with a conference championship, and they can stand on that pedestal there. So there is, it's a different dynamic that they've had, but then they have their end-all-be-all argument with an undefeated Clemson. if it were to get to that point, my wrinkle in the whole thing,

and I know you have a lot of gamblers out there that like to throw some money around, what are the odds, Illinois goes? What if they go to Michigan and win, and what if they beat Ohio State? They have to be in the college football playoff with wins over Michigan and Ohio State. Well, I was going to go to Oregon and USC here in a moment, but I don't think Illinois can do that. I don't think they have enough offense to do it, even though, you know,

they're running back, Chase Brown leads the country, is the leading rusher in the country. They're very good defensively. By the way, this is not, I think we had this conversation last year. I think it was you and me. It could have been, I think Scott, more of, one of, some combination. I go,

Brett Bielma's built for the Big Ten. I mean, the Arkansas thing in the SEC, being in the SEC West was just too tough. But Illinois is going to become a powerhouse in the Big Ten. West. And it's sooner rather than later, it's really a shame for Illinois that they lost so early in the season to a bad Indiana team. And so that's a shame. But I guess the point that I was going to make is I don't see them winning at Michigan and then beating Ohio State. I mean, if it happened,

yeah, I mean, it would be, yeah. But I mean, they're a double-digit underdog at Michigan, and they're a double-digit underdog in the Big Ten title game. against Ohio State. Yeah, I just think about the headaches the committee's going to have, and they really need them to lose, and they need a T-C loss to help their cause. But you know what? That's the great thing about this is we do have a lot. It feels like with multiple teams in the running for conference championships,

we do have a lot of meaningful games at the back end of this schedule, which is just awesome. Well, there's going to be a meaningful game in the SEC West if Bama wins Saturday, And then you've got a game against Ole Miss because they're not out of it in the SEC West and they would go in as a one-lost team. But God, did LSU kick their ass in the second half of that game? So I think the, and I think you think this too, because we talked, before the season started, Stanford Steve picked UCLA to be a surprise fourth team in the playoff. Now, they're not going to get there because their one loss was an absolute ass kicking at Oregon.

But, you know, I think the team, I think they have more five and six year players and good players on offense in particular, as you pointed out. And they've had a hell of a season. If SC or Oregon runs the table, would you consider that team, USC would own wins over UCLA and then Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game? Oregon would have a win against Utah and then SC in the Pac-12 title game. and their one loss, as bad as it was, 49 to 3 to Georgia, you know, came on Labor Day weekend. I mean, I think week one is always a bit of a head fake. Would you consider either one of those teams as possible teams that would jump TCU if they were undefeated? They need mayhem to happen in front of them, but what they also need, they need a USC Oregon final,

because they don't play in the regular season, which seems to happen way too much in the godawful scheduling of the PAC 12 every year. But that's the setup you need is you need those two highest profile teams, the biggest brands in the conference, with the ball rolling. But getting there, I don't know. And I think SC is ranked. The fact that they're ranked higher than UCLA is a joke. I mean, SC doesn't have, I mean, they have a win over Oregon State who is, you know,

I put them in a category as a good football team. They're winning games without their starting quarterback, and FC shouldn't have won that game against Oregon State. So when you look at FC Oregon, that PAC 12, the only way, and like I said, they need help up in front of them. They need multiple losses in teams ahead of them would be for Oregon and SD to run the table ahead and then meet in the Pac-12 title game. Yeah, again, let me just emphasize. I'm not bringing up TCU because my son went to TCU. I'm bringing them up over and over again

because they're an undefeated team that looks like they could go undefeated and not make the playoff multiple ways. Alabama being ahead of them and potentially in Oregon or a USC or even, believe it or not, even in Ole Miss, if Ole Miss were to run the table beating Bama, Arkansas, and then in the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State and then upsetting Tennessee or Georgia,

we'd have to almost consider them as well. I don't think that'll happen. Give me somebody, you've already given me Illinois. What about North Carolina? What about Drake May, who, you know, maybe the best pro-prospect quarterback in college football. And by the way, should be higher up on the Heisman watch. But what if they were to run the table and beat Clemson

in an ACC title game. Their loss would be to Notre Dame. By the way, they stink defensively. They're not a good defensive team. But what would you make of a Carolina one-loss team? If mayhem, not over TCU, but some mayhem in front of them. Yeah, I mean, there's a path for sure.

I mean, you could say what you want about your defense. If you run the table over the course of a season, and that shows how good your offense is to only have one loss in a game. I think it was like 45, 33 to an 108 team that does have NFL talent. But when I think of, I see that path for North Carolina. Now, I'm not sure they're going to get to the ACC title game with one loss. I still think, like I said, there's some tricky games on their schedule. But Drake May, if you haven't watched him play, man, he is an ultimate difference maker.

Every throw, he worries me with how. how many runs he takes off with. But, I mean, he can make every throw. They got plenty of speed and good guys at wide receiver. Their offensive line isn't great, and I think he compensates for that, and they have two freshman running backs that are just studs. So North Carolina is going to be heard from. And like I said, if you haven't watched him,

Drake May is definitely worth sitting down and watch him because he has all the good. When you talk about athletic ability, deep ball throws, you know, quick game, you know, medium, you know, he throws the ball over the middle of the field, which I really like, which we don't see a lot with college quarterbacks, but he has everything on the table for sure. You agree that he's a much better prospect than Sam Howell, right? Oh, God, yes.

Size alone and arm strength. But it's kind of the same deal, and Drake may's even shown more prowess. It Sam ran for his life, you know, the last year in Carolina. He was one of the guys that sort of image-wise got penalized because of what he lost around him. Exactly. You know, way in the weeds going back, Josh Allen. Josh Allen had an unbelievable junior year, almost went pro and came back because he wanted to work on himself. And he got the crap beaten out of him because he lost his top four wide receivers and his four best offensive lines at Wyoming.

but you know what? He came back and he took his lump and I think he humbled him to make the right decision. And I'm looking at other quarterbacks. You know, in the ACC, just for example, you talk about Drake May. I was going down the list because all preseason, all we did was talk about there was nine guys up for first team all ACC quarterback. Drake May wasn't on the list. The kid at Duke who's playing phenomenal football, Leonard wasn't on the list. And Sam Hartman is Sam Hartman. Yeah. Every other guy in that league, that quarterback that's supposedly an NFL quarterback has played below expectation. And a lot of guys are way below expectation.

And then he got Larry who suffered an injury. But Drake May, the story he's brought to the table has been awesome. All right. Let's wrap up the conversation about college football, at least a playoff this way. Give me the four teams that you think are just flat out the four best teams in the country. I'm not asking you to predict the four playoff teams yet. That'll be the part. two of this. But who are the four

best teams in the country? You've got to put Tennessee there right now. I go Tennessee, Ohio State, Georgia, and Michigan. Yeah. Who are the four that will make the playoff? Oh, man. Because Georgia's an eight and a

half point favorite this weekend. for those of you not following it. You don't have favorites on the smell test. They're going to be on the smell test. I don't know if they, I'm not sure if they're going to be or not. We'll see. I can tell you this. I can tell you this.

Texas is going to be on the smell test. How are they at two and a half point favorite Kansas State? I don't know. That's insane. Kansas State maybe has one of the most dominant, impressive performances of the year with their backup quarterback against the top 10 team 48 to nothing last week. And their two and a half point dog this week.

But anyway. So who are the four playoff teams? This is tough. I'm going to go Tennessee. No, no, no, no. I'm going to go Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson, and Michigan. Michigan gets in after losing to Ohio State. No, they're not.

They're not going to get it. They're not going to get it. Okay. I don't know how. They can't have two SEC and two big 10 teams in. No, probably not. They can't. Well, you didn't do that.

You had two big 10 teams and one SEC team. You basically said Tennessee is out with one loss and Bama loses twice, including to Georgia in the SEC title game. And so they're out. And so you just had Georgia. You had Clemson, you had Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson, and then you went Michigan. The issue there would be a one-loss Tennessee team who lost to Georgia, who might be the number one seed, versus Michigan, who lost to the two-seed in that scenario. I don't know. I mean, it would be either Michigan or Tennessee in what you just laid out. But here's the problem, too, for TCU. So they're already behind Alabama.

If Tennessee loses, you still have to put Tennessee ahead of Alabama. Yes. Yes. You know? Uh-huh. So they could be sitting out of the title game, and Alabama could, I mean, what if Tennessee loses to Georgia, you know, 38, 37, and then they smoke everybody else on their schedule? Obama runs the table, and Bama beats Georgia in a lot.

one-point thriller. So you've got 5249, 3837, and 3331. I mean, at that point, isn't it clear that all three teams are really good? Yeah. And then two of them are going to have to play again in the playoff if that were the case. Of course. Man. Yeah. You know what other point people are going to lose reminds Kevin. And we are so set up for the LSU. The worst part. No, the worst part, new part about this sport. And I can see it happen it even possibly this weekend. Can you imagine one of these games, state Tennessee, Georgia this week goes to that god-offal three over time where the teams just take. Can you, it's going to happen. It's going to happen in one of these games. I'm telling you right now,

and that'll be the end of that rule. And that'll be gone forever. So I'm really, really scared game with that kind of magnitude is going to be decided on dueling two-point plays. It's the dumbest thing in sports. It's the dumbest competitive, you know, game-deciding overtime thing in sports. It's so stupid. When we saw the Penn State, Illinois thing from last year, not that it was as significant a game, it ended up being, you know, this is all for safety, right? nine over times or whatever it was later, it was totally unsafe at that point.

Nobody could stand. It was ridiculous. How did they bring that back? I don't know. And I can't believe it. It's worse than the ghost runner on second base in Major League Baseball. It really is. All right.

Let's talk about some games this weekend. So who do you like? Georgia is an eight and a half point favorite. It's possible they'll be in the smell test. I can tell you that the public, obviously, as we know, is on Tennessee. So it bothers me about staying off the game, but there's just something in watching Tennessee that tells me that they're going to be able to score. So I...

Yes. And see, here... Go ahead. No, go ahead. All right. Here's what I see playing out. I think the most definite thing is Georgia is going to score on Tennessee. And when I dive into Georgia on defense, going...

I watch this Tennessee off. every week. And with your Georgia, and now Georgia's had a nice setup here that people I don't think are looking at. You know, they play Florida in a pseudo-rivalry

game last week, but you saw that. I don't think they seriously. And just you know, just winged it around against them. But go back and look before that. They played teams like Vandy. You know, they played Auburn. They had a buy-week.

in there. I think they have been getting ready for Tennessee all this time coming. And when you watch Tennessee, especially if you're a team that's going to play them, you have to be sick of watching teams blow coverages against them. So what can you do? Do you have the guys to play man? Yeah. Do you have the guys to play man coverage? And Georgia has that. So and Kirby's a man-to-man guy. I think you're going to see Georgia play bump and run. That really, really, really helps you in the screen game also. Now, when you play man to man, the quarterback is going to run the ball. You're going to give away quarterback run, and he's good at that. But what also is going to happen when you could create pressure, which Georgia has on the defensive line, they got Jalen

Carter back, is think about Hooker. He has been just an assassin in the pocket because he's right there in the pocket. He doesn't get moved off his spot. He's not a big mobile on the run, out of pocket guy. So I think Georgia's going to play man that that helps them with all the switching that Tennessee likes to do. They do have versatility in the back end. They're not the best secondary, but they got athletes. So when you're, you know, your nickel position, that's mostly you're going to be a corner. That's going to be their next best corner where Alabama got caught sometimes being a safety or even an outside linebacker sometimes. So I think Georgia gets enough stops to beat Tennessee. My problem is, is it enough more than a touchdown?

That's the tricky spot. I think it's a dead over game. I'm sure the money's going to all be on the over. But I do think, I've said Tennessee the whole time for the months and all, and give me the points with Tennessee. And that was what, I mean, somebody posted 11 a couple weeks ago. Now it's more reasonable to me. The other thing is Tennessee hasn't come close to go in a play in an environment

like they're going to Saturday. No, they've had all those games at home. Yeah, and the LSU game was 11 a.m. local. So I think Tennessee's up against it. I do think it's going to be as fun of game to watch. I would lean towards Tennessee and the points, but I do think Georgia gets the job done. I think one of the keys to the game really is, does Georgia, can Georgia stop the run with their front four and without a loaded box? Because I think Tennessee is much more versatile offensively and balanced offensively if they need to be. I think they can really run the football.

And that may be, you know, the key. Can they run it against a box that isn't loaded because they can't load it because they're going to get absolutely thrown over the top on? And, you know, we've seen what they've been, you know, they're not as good as they were last year defensively, but they're better offensively than they were a year ago. The total in that game is 65 and a half. What happens Saturday night in Death Valley, LSU and Bama?

Yeah, this is interesting. Because when you look at the matchup, and like I said, we've seen Alabama, and this is the problem in Alabama is they've been really good on defense against Texas on the road. They've been decent on the road against Arkansas, you know, on defense. And they were bad against Tennessee on the defensive side of the ball. So what defense is coming for Bama at LSU? And the problem I have with LSU in this game is they've been a great story. You obviously see, you know, Kelly's imprint on that program. They're more buttoned up than they have been.

The turnovers got it out of hand against Tennessee. They never had a chance in that game. Special teams killed them in that game. Special teams crushed them in that game. And both are losses. Right. So when you think about LSU, are they built for one of these marathon, you know, FECC games that Alabama loves to play because they know they have a deeper roster than you?

I mean, look at what Alabama did and coming back against Tennessee and then be right on the doorstep of possibly winning that game. I don't think LSU is there yet from a roster standpoint. They got really good receivers. Daniels has been really good, but I think Alabama a week off, I think that pass rush is going to be a lot better because what nobody will ever talk about in the Tennessee Alabama game is Tennessee's offensive line was really, really good

against Will Anderson and Dallas Turner and the Bradwell kid from St. Francis and Baltimore. Alabama goes with this cheetah package where they get the three best pass rushers on, and Tennessee handle that. But could Tennessee go on the road in that offensive line play? Well, that's another

thing I want to see in that game. So going back to Alabama, I just don't think LSU is built for one of these 41, 38 games against the likes of Alabama. They could do it and going on the road against an inferior opponent with Florida. But LSU, again, they got two freshman offensive tackled.

I think Anderson and Turner wear on them over the course of the game. And I think they're disciplined enough where you'll see those guys not rush all the way up the field and give Daniels those running lanes. You've seen it come time and time again. Two guys run up the field. He splits that B gap with open run. He takes eight yards. I think Alabama is going to be a lot more discipline in their pass rush.

And I think that's going to frustrate Daniels. He's not the most accurate guy, but he has a great set of playmaking tools. So I don't think LSU is going to come out of the box and play great, but I don't think they're built for 60 against Alabama. So I probably would have to take all the points, but I definitely think Alabama wins the game. Yeah, Bama is a 13-and-a-half-point favorite, 13-point favorite in Death Valley. It's Death Valley at night, and there's no place like it for a sports.

event and you said it right from the beginning, Brian Kelly's imprint on this program is starting to be felt. It is so much different to watch how, as you said, buttoned up and well-coached in the quarterback play. We can all think whatever we want about Brian Kelly, whether he's a nutcase or not, he's one hell of a football coach. And I, that's not going to surprise me if they, if they pull it off Saturday night. Like we said about Bama, they've got, to me, to me, Texas A&M is not a good football team. And they were life and death with A&M at home, at home. And not to mention the Texas game from much earlier in the year.

But I do like Bryce Young more than Stroud and more than anybody else. Where are you on Stroud versus Young? Now, are you saying to win a college football game or you're staying at the next level? I do it. everything. There's something about Bryce Young, and I know that he is not even 5-11, or if he is, he's barely 5-11. But he, to me, is the, I think he's the best pro-prospect out of all of them. I think he's a better pro-prospect than Stroud. I think he's the toughest evaluation for a quarterback going on the next level that we've seen in 20 years. Why? Because of the size?

Because of the size, we saw him take that hit at Arkansas and go down with the injury. There's going to be concern there. I do worry about hanging in the pocket. There is a lot of, I mean, his accuracy is unbelievable. The way he can wait for the last second and put the ball right with his receivers. And I want to see more of how like this week. I want to see again because LSU has defensive line talent. and they're going to disrupt some things.

Alabama's offensive line has not played well this year, but you have nine back there making all the plays. And when you look at them, it's like this Drew Brees, Johnny Mansell combination, where it's just, I'm going to make a play on third and nine. Don't worry about it. And what I think what else you're going to see is huge the benefit of having elite wide receivers last year. And that helped him out in his first year as a starter.

Now, I mean, you hear Alabama fans cry about the wide receiver position. Sorry, you don't have another top 15 pick, which you had about eight of them in the last three years. So I think the run games, I think Gibbs is an absolute game breaker at running back. I like their other running backs they have. So I think it's a tough evaluation because obviously he has a ton on his plate making all the shots. I don't know about the next level. like I really, you could sell your franchise, you know, taking him in the top five next year.

I think that's a lot to ask because I do think he needs some time to get acclimated. I mean, this is a whole different world going from the SEC and playing against NFL defensive lines every week. But, I mean, give me one guy in the country to win a college football game. I'm taking Bryce Young. There's no doubt about it. I just, and this is the other thing. I want to see, this is where we learn about guys. on the road in these environments.

I held out on Ohio State because I wanted to see it last week because they didn't have a road game. Well, he was brilliant in Knoxville. He was incredible. Oh, awesome. Awesome. And now LSU has better defensive front seven talent for sure than Tennessee. So now I want to see it when he's going to have pressure in his face a lot more than he did against Tennessee. But the kid's phenomenal.

I think he's the best player in the sport. There's no doubt about that. You see how valuable he is. and how different they look. You know, that's one factor. You've got to also chime in with the A&M game. It's him not playing. I think it's a totally different game, obviously, if he does play.

That's true. But this breakdown of him going towards the NFL, I can't wait to see guys with McShay and what they say. Because the tape, I mean, they say the tape doesn't lie. What he's put on tape is incredible. But trying to forecast that, that's what we've seen so many times mess up. up in this predicament with college quarterbacks going on the next level. So it's

fascinating to watch and see how it plays out. You think Hooker's going to win the Heisman? I mean, Saturday will go along the way. I don't see how he does. Correct, correct, yes. Saturday, I mean, because now if you win Saturday, you could play well in that game

and I don't think is Bryce, could Bright still win it? I don't know. I don't know. He's a favorite. I never like, I mean, look what's happened the last couple of years with the Heisman. I mean, Tua had it until the last week of the year. And Kyler played well against a terrible team in the Big 12th title game.

And he wins the Heism. So, it's, I mean, people love talking about it. I can't stand it. What, we're talking about the Heisman in general? Yeah. The betting on the Heism. Oh, yeah. You know, I'm just, you know, I'm never going to, like, what is it?

Hooker's not one to win the Heism. I don't want that, you know. Right. I don't want that at all. I mean, yeah, a guy like Quorum could end up running past Ohio State in Illinois and end up, you know, coming out of nowhere to win it. All right, let me switch to the NFL real quickly. So after Kansas City and Buffalo, do you think Philadelphia is the third best team in the league

or do you have Philadelphia in that conversation is the best team in the league? I have Philadelphia in that conversation. Okay. I really do. When we talk about balance, the teams, I mean, look what they do at offensive line, first of all. Yep. As well of a run game and pass protection, you have Jalen back there. It feels like every week they just say, all right, AJ, you're going to be the guy this week.

One week, Devonte, you're going to be the guy. Goddard, you'll be the guy this week. They got great versatility at running back. I still think Miles Sanders is an awesome player that doesn't get talked about. I do, too. And now you're seeing him for a full year. He's been dinged up a lot. I don't even think he scored a touchdown last year, which is just crazy when you think about them.

But the defense, Kevin, I mean, I talk to guys that played in the league. And my question is always on the back end, the secondary, who do you trust? And, you know, Ryan Clark comes in, Damien Woody. And they all think, you know, Slay is the best corner in the league, which was surprising to me. because he does get matched up on the other teams. One, he's played great this year. But that defense starts with the defensive line. And when I think about Clemson,

and that's why I'm actually really fired up to see Clemson Notre Dame this week, if you want to talk about that one. But when I think about the Eagles, think about the guys they just roll in. You know, Redick has been unbelievable. You still have Cox up front. That's just a game wrecker. And those guys are just so good.

And they're always fresh. they play about eight guys. And when you watch NFL across the board, you know, they're not that deep there. It's usually one of the biggest spots for injuries in the league. In Philly, just with their versatility and their depth there, they're getting fresh guys every other series. And I think you've seen that in the second half.

I think I saw a stat. Jalen Hurts hasn't thrown a pass trailing in the second half of a game this year. To me, that starts with the defense coming out and setting the tone, whether you go on the road, whether you're at home when you want to jumpstart teams. The defensive line has been unbelievable for that team to me. You can't game plan for one guy because, you know, they're coming from all angles. I know Washington is up against it, but you saw that with Wentz early on in that game.

I mean, it was just a travesty, what they were trying to do offensively knowing that guys were coming, you know, off pressure off single blocks the whole game. So I do put Philly up there. I think the world of them. I said after week two with Scott on our podcast, I said the NFC is going through Philly. You're going to have to go there and win. I don't care who you are.

So, you know, the teams start to be dwindling down. But that's my conversation in the last couple weeks in the NFL. There's three teams in the league I could trust. That's it. Three teams. And those are the three teams. Now, there's teams, you know, San Francisco with McCaffrey and them starting to feel like they're getting their legs.

Baltimore, I would think, is going to be a lot better defensively getting Rochwan Smith, who I think is a huge pickup for what they've looked like on defense. So there's teams in the Cups there where it's not going to surprise me if the Ravens go on a little bit of a run or the Niners go on a little bit of a run. And those are two teams that could go on the road and win in the playoffs. But to me, the three teams at the top are the Chiefs, Bills, and Eagles. Yeah, I guess, I mean, I've been on Philadelphia for a year. Going back to last year, you know, that was one of my big prop bets was betting them over their number.

I bet them over again this year. And before the season started, I said if he improves just a little bit, this is a 12 to 13 win team easily. I think that the difference is, you know, Allen and Mahomes, which is why I would say Buffalo and Kansas City are in a category. And then I've got Philadelphia in the next category. By the way, they have debatably the best offensive line in the game. And you talked about their D-line. I mean, they just added Robert Quinn. after losing Derek Barnett.

You know, last year, them losing Brandon Graham was a big deal. But they, Howie Roseman has been playing chess to checkers using that cliche for a couple of years now. I mean, the Bradbury acquisition, the Reddick acquisition in the offseason, you know, drafting Jordan Davis. They actually moved up, you know, they still have New Orleans' first round pick for next year. You know, Gardner Johnson, Slay is amazing. They're an unbelievable football team. The thing that I've just noticed a little bit with Philadelphia, and I'm a Jalen Hertz guy, so I really like Jalen Hertz.

But as an example, and it's the game that I watched every single play of more than any other Philadelphia game. If you go back, I know you're not following Washington closely, but Washington is an unbelievable run-stopping team. Number two in the league DVOA-wise per football outsiders. And Philadelphia had one quarter against Washington. That was it. And part of it was set up on a short field interception or fumble. I forget which it was. But they could not run the football against Washington. And once they got a 24-0 lead, you could see that if you do make Hertz one-dimensional, and when I say one-dimensional, it's not just, you know, him throwing the football. You've got to stop him as a runner as well. But if you can stop the run against them, he's not. not a pure at this point, even though I love Hertz, and I think he's much better than he was last year. You can't just drop them back and say, we're in a tight game or we're down a score and have

him throw the ball 35 times and hope that it'll work out for three straight games in the postseason. I don't think you can. But I think stopping their run and making them one-dimensional is so hard and defensively they're good. But I think Buffalo and Kansas City is there. And then I think Philly, Dallas, and San Francisco healthy are all possibilities out of the NFC. I'll tell you what, I don't think San Francisco that anybody's going to want to face them in the postseason home or away if they're a completely healthy football team with Christian McCaffrey now in the mix. It would not surprise me at all if San Francisco ends up being, you know, the NFC West champs, you know, beating out Seattle, which, should happen. By the way, I saw this yesterday. This is totally a scheduling anomaly, you know, quirk. They have five straight home games starting with a week from Sunday. They have a

buy this week and then five consecutive home games against the, I think it's a Chargers, Saints, Arizona, Miami, and I think maybe Brady's in there in Tampa. And, you know, with the 17 game schedule, when the NFC's got nine this year, and eight road games. Last year it was, you know, there are going to be more runs of home games in a row. But I don't think I've ever seen five straight home games for an NFL team. That's crazy.

I didn't know that. My point is I think they'll win the division. And I think when we get to January, San Francisco is going to be really, really difficult. And I think Dallas looks the same way because I think Dallas is, you know, along with San Francisco are the two best defensive teams. Maybe in football overall. Yeah.

the one thing with Dallas is I still want to see that offense because there's going to be a game where your defense doesn't create the turnovers that they have and I'm not I don't know if I'm there like to me look at them last week with Pollard getting all the touches they're a better football team with Pollard getting the ball than Ziziel Elliott. Jerry doesn't think so.

Jerry was adamant that they're that Zee they're going to go as far Zeeke takes him. I think a lot of us, you know, especially NFC East fans have felt that way for two to three years that they're much better with Pollard. Much better. Yeah, I mean, just the game-breaking ability.

I mean, you get through the line of scrimmage and he's gone, whereas Zique still, I think he struggles with his first step, and I don't think there's that burst anymore. I really, I know he's gone through changes, you know, trying to change his weight and things like that, but that gear, that gear, where

where you know, you see it with guys in the NFL. There's that gear when they get to the second level. They don't get hawk from behind. And I just haven't seen it from Zeke, and I have seen it with Pollard. It's there. You know, it hasn't lied to me. So, yeah, I'm not with Jerry on that one,

but they are a fascinating thing, because if they go on the road and play well, and that defense, obviously, we've seen it travel, they gave Philly fit in that comeback on that great Sunday night game. they will be heard from for sure. And the thing with San Francisco is I just really think people forgot how valuable Christian McCaffrey is. I mean, the guy can do everything. And now they get a buy and now you bring Devo back healthy.

What the hell are they going to do offensively and scheme-wise with both those guys on the field? That is a defense coordinator's nightmare to try and balance your defense. if you got McCaffrey split out and Debo split out and then they bring one of them back in the back field and motioning, like it's just, I can't imagine how happy Shanahan has drawn stuff up on his whiteboard this week. Cooley said the day the trade was made on the podcast. He said, this is the best trade of the year. It's not even close. People talking about McCaffrey. It's too much.

Whatever. It's a running back. He said, what it'll do for Jimmy Garapolo. because Cooley knows the Mike and Kyle system. He played and knows it very well. He said with Kittle and McCaffrey on the field, it'll make, Jimmy G. will know immediately where to throw the football. It'll totally dictate and make the defense pronounce essentially what they're playing.

And Garoppolo needs that. And he said it's going to be, the game will be made much easier for Garoppolo. who's the third best team in the AFC? I had this conversation with my producer on radio today because Miami was obviously very active yesterday at the trade deadline, acquiring Chubb, acquiring Jeff Wilson from San Francisco after they made Chase Edmonds part of the Chub deal. And I made the case that the dolphins right now could be the third best team in the AFC.

What do you say? That is a tough one. It's not anybody in the AFC West, I'll tell you that. The Chargers got a lot of problems. They got a lot of injuries. A bunch of them are. Yeah. Yeah.

I hate to say it, but if Tanna Hill is healthy, I would take Tennessee because there's a trust there. And I've seen it. Baltimore, I can't do it yet because I need to see the defense. But I know every week, Tennessee is going to come in and give you all you can handle defensively. And, I mean, look at last. I know it's the Texans. Yeah.

But everybody in the world knew that Derek Henry was getting the. ball all game last game. Amazing. And he goes out and puts up that performance. They continue to do things offensively that aren't the prettiest, but they're effective, man. And I just feel like teams aren't willing to do that. And when you think about Brable and getting to know him a little bit, just the best dude

in the world, and we'll do whatever he has to do for his team to win games. And, you know, you see that as a trickle-down effect from what Belichick is scheme-wise, but he doesn't care what it looks like. He wants to go out and get Ws. I think I'm really excited to see what they look like against Tennessee or I should say against Kansas City just defensively.

Because they've lost some guys too on that defense. I think Simmons is the most underrated player on the defensive side of the ball. Totally agree. Totally. I think he's the second best defensive tackle behind Aaron Donald in football. I could be right there with you on that argument. But, you know,

They're probably not going to win, especially if Willis has to play again. But I just want to see what they do defensively because they've had some success in not stopping Kansas City. They're not going to stop them, but they can slow them down. And I do think I'm really, I like what Kansas City did defensively and making changes. I still think they're working through who their best guys are. But I give them credit for making a commitment to getting better on the defensive side of the ball, knowing you have to have that in the playoffs. and you saw him get burned with it last year.

So it's really, really fun stuff. But I really think the idea of, yes, you know, we talked about San Francisco going and be able to possibly go to Philly and winning. That's a possibility. I just, I mean, that's a freight train of Buffalo. You know you're going to have to go there in the playoffs. Yeah.

That's going to be up against it because they're probably going to put them in a night game also. So that weather is going to be, you know, double. There's only one team that can win that game, and it's Kansas City. some of homes. Okay. All right. I don't see Buffalo in January. By the way, you're probably right.

They're going to put them in the night game Saturday or Sunday night. And I just can't see that environment, anybody but a team with an unbelievable quarterback going in and winning the game. Mm-hmm. Who do you? Yeah, I know. I mean, do you think Burrow could go in and win that game? Do you think Lamar could go in and win that game? Do you really think we already saw what Tennessee would it look like with them on Monday night football in Buffalo earlier this year?

And Tua would be overwhelmed, although that's why Miami, with Waddle and Hill, there's just, God, and their defense is good and they can run the football. There's something about the dolphins that I just think is intriguing, even though I'm not really sure what to make of Tua. I still think they're working through a lot of things offensively. First thing in that system, you know, I thought they looked, I mean, they went down early against Detroit. I know it's Detroit, but they came right back and had answers every series after going down 14. Nothing. I don't think they go to Buffalo. The one team, if they get healthy and they get right, that could go there and win.

I know. No, I think Baltimore could do it. Okay. I really do. All right. I trust that. And I think they're only going to get better. I think they're going to go on a little bit of a run here.

I really, I mean, you like, or Cooley said you like the McCaffir. I think Roquan and then Patrick Queen there, I think that brings a lot of versatility to a defense that have shown some holes. I think they're young guys at end are good. And then Callais has been banged up. That's a, I'm really fired up from the Monday night game with New Orleans because they're a pain in the bus to play against. And I just have a feeling that they need Andrews obviously healthy. But I feel like Baltimore is on the cusp there. I think they got punched in the mouth a bunch of times with those brutal second half losses early in the year.

But I think they learned a bunch about themselves. And that culture that Harbaugh has created there is second to none. When you think about getting your team where you need to be when you get to Thanksgiving in December, I'm fired up to see that play out because I still think the AMC North is just awesome. because you know there's general hatred towards those teams, and they're all built so differently, and they're not afraid of each other. You know, talking with people with the Bengals,

like I knew Monday night they were going in. They can't beat Cleveland. The way that matches up with them, and the way Burrow has been, you know, holding on the ball too a little, and everybody talks about the whole line, but he's held on to the ball too long. And then without Chase, that was a great setup for an upset.

So I think that, I mean, look at Cleveland, losses. And you think about the difference in the record and a perception and what they might be with a different quarterback. It's fun stuff. And that's the stuff I like about the NFL season. I don't want to talk about how bad Tampa looks.

I don't want to talk about how bad Greek Bay looks. I want to talk about teams that have the potential. So that's where I am with that stuff. And obviously the commanders are in a big spot. We've got the black uniforms this week. I'm sure everybody's fired up for that. Oh, yeah. Yeah, everybody's really fired up for the black

uniforms. You know, it's Kirk Cousins coming back to D.C. for the first time since he left. You know, I'm kind of with you, by the way, on what you just said, because early on, I was like, wow, Atlanta's really interesting. They were supposed to be literally one of the two to three worst teams in the league. Seattle, the same thing. The giants to a certain degree. And Arthur Smith did such a great job, you know, with Tannehill and Tennessee. He's doing the same thing with Marriota in Atlanta. And the division's totally winnable. You mentioned the Monday night game.

Before the season started, I thought the Saints, and I thought it was because James was going to have a big year. And they had, you know, they had drafted Alave and they had Thomas coming back. And they have a good defense, you know, in general. And Dennis Allen's a good defensive guy to begin with. And they're still alive. I mean, they're better with Dalton. I don't think there's any doubt about it, that they are better with Dalton.

and I don't think he's sitting down until they're out of it at this point. But yeah, I like that part of it too. Like, you know, the Giants, the Jets, the Seahawks, the Falcons, some of these, you know, stories. On Baltimore real quickly, I said this a few weeks ago, they are such a great organization. And obviously being 35 miles to the south for all these years, it's been like, you know, why, you know, we've got the most dysfunctional situation in sports. And they've had one of the most functional situations in sports. But I do think that Harbaugh and this reliance on some of these young analytics, I don't want to get into the whole analytics thing because I think it's totally useful information,

but I think context matters. And I think there have been so many times when he has just outsmarted himself. And I worry about that in a big spot, him pulling the trigger on something that's based on historical numbers and him ignoring the context of the situation. I still think that Jamar Chase, when he's back and healthy, that Cincinnati's the best team in that division. I do, but a lot of football left. All right. Last thing, you and Scott this year have been, you know, making NFL picks once a week,

and you both been doing pretty well with them, right? Uh-huh. Yeah, yeah, he's been, we give one pick a week, and, you know, it's something new where we were a lot of, to be able to use NFL footage, if you can imagine that, talking gambling. So we just take that and run with it and let's make some picks on the game. I think he had two losses or won, and I have

three. His first loss, though, he started undefeated. And I just said, all right, I'm just taking opposite of you go. So you go first and I ended up winning that one. It was Carolina and San Francisco a couple weeks back. So the host was not happy. I'm thinking about pulling that on him again

tonight, seeing how he won again. And he's been good. I mean, all you got to do is ask him. You know when he's doing well, he'll tell you, you know? Yeah. All right. So what is your pick this weekend, your NFL pick?

Oh, man. I think the dolphins, everybody's going to take the dolphins. I'm going to take all reliable. Belichick eats alive, young quarterback. I love Sam Ellinger. I love them in college. I don't think he's an NFL starting quarterback, and I think he's up against it.

The Colts have been the biggest disappointment in the NFL to me. I'm going to take the Patriots and lay the five and a half. Yeah, I had the over on their win total this year with Matt Ryan. I thought it was going to be a – I'm very disappointed. I thought the Colts were going to have a good season as well. I had them last week laying three against Washington. But the biggest deal – well, you just say, said something actually. Let me not forget what you just said. Sam Ealinger played really well last

week. He really threw the ball well, which was surprising to me. So New England lay in the five and a half, Belichick eating up Sam Ealinger. That's your pick. All right, this was fun. Yep. As always, let's do it again soon. At Stanford Steve 82 on Twitter. Watch and, you know, watch everything he does with the bear, Chris Felica, on television. and on their podcast, and there's nobody better talking football, not just college football, but pro football, and sort of helping to look forward to the NFL draft,

which we will do with Steve down the road. All right, thanks. Appreciate it. Thank you, bud. All right, that's it for the show. Thanks to Steve. Thanks to Mike O'Zanian. I'll be back tomorrow with Tommy,

probably with a lot more information.