The Kevin Sheehan Show - Jay Gruden's "NFL Lock" + 11 "Smell Test" Picks

Episode Date: December 20, 2025

Kevin opened with a Skins-Eagles preview and pick along with a recap of last night's incredible Rams-Seahawks game. Kevin also played and weighed in on Sean McVay's mystifying 4-minute post-game press conference last night. Jay Gruden jumped on to talk Jayden Daniels, preview and pick the Commanders-Eagles game, talk other NFL, plus release his "NFL Lock of the Week" which has hit 10 out of the last 11 weeks on this show. Kevin finished up with "11 Smell Test" picks for Saturday and Sunday. His "Smell Test" is 100-58-11 ATS (63.2%) on the season. For all your football betting needs: DCRELOAD at MyBookie for a 50% Deposit Match Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it, you don't need it, but you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Sheehan Show, here's Kevin. McLaurin to the bottom of the screen, second and goal, 10 seconds, Daniels, fires, into, touchdown, Jameson Crowder, preposterous, five turnovers in the lead with seconds remaining. difference a year makes. That was nearly a year ago to the day, December 22, 2024. Jaden Daniels' fifth touchdown pass, that one to Jameson Crowder with six seconds to go to beat the Eagles, 36 to 33. They would clinch a playoff berth the following week with another memorable win, 30 to 24 in overtime over Atlanta. Washington and Philly tomorrow.

for the first of their two games that will be played over the final three weeks of the season. The show's presenting sponsors, always Windonation, 86690 Nation, windownation.com if you need new windows. Jay Gruden coming up on the show, Jay's hit on 10 of his last 11 NFL locks of the week on this podcast. 10 of his last 11. and his last few haven't even been close. He had Chicago last week laying seven and a half. They crushed Cleveland the week before that.

He had the Rams laying a number against Arizona, and they won big. We will get his lock of the week coming up when he joins us beginning in the next segment. I'll finish up the show with 11 smell test picks for this weekend. None for tonight. No Alabama, Oklahoma pick in the first playoff game tonight. I do have three picks tomorrow and then another seven on Sunday. And then I've got the Monday night game as well in this week's smell test. Four and one last week, 158 and 11 on the season.

But a big weekend coming up, a huge football weekend this last weekend before Christmas hits next week. We've got the college football playoffs starting tonight in Norman. Oklahoma, triple header tomorrow, and of course, two NFL games as well, with Washington and Philadelphia at 5 o'clock tomorrow in Landover, and then a big one at Soldier Field tomorrow night, Chicago, and Green Bay. What a time of year, and what a game last night. Without question, the game of the year. One of really the best games in recent memory, Seattle rallying from 16 down with about nine minutes to go in the game. They were down 30 to 14.

They came back to win the game 38 to 37 in overtime. My big takeaway from the game last night is just that the Rams were the better team. And I don't feel any differently, even though they lost the game, that if they play each other again, the Rams would win the next game. I think if these two teams played each other ten times, the Rams would win the next game. win seven or eight times. But the game itself had everything. I mean, this was an NFL instant classic. And it really wasn't for the first three plus quarters because Matt Stafford and Puka Nakua just dominated the football game. And Sam Darnold did what people expect Sam Darnold to do.

He basically soiled himself for three and a half quarters. He threw two picks, two terrible picks. He took unnecessary sacks. A couple of them he didn't really have much of a chance on. But the narrative on Sam Darnold, you know, you put him in a big spot in a big game, and he won't play well. And last night for three and a half quarters, he had not played well. And then over the last half of the fourth quarter, and then through the overtime, he was brilliant. So good for him.

Matt Stafford threw for 457 yards and three touchdowns and had five, balls dropped in the game. And Puka Nakua continues to establish himself as truly not only not only an elite receiver, but one of those receivers who take over and dominate football games. It's hard to do from that position. There are only six or seven of them in the league that can do it. He's one of them, 12 catches for 225 yards. At the end of this opening segment, I'm going to leave you with the Sean McVeigh press conference following last night's game. It was remarkable what the media focused on rather than one of the great football games we've ever seen. And I'll explain when we get there. But the game last night, man,

it all turned on Rashid Shaheed's punt return down 30 to 14. Sam Darnold had just thrown an interception, his second in the red zone. And the game looked over. The Rams had the ball back, nine minutes to go, up 30 to 14. There was no sense that Seattle's great defense could even stop them at that point. The Rams are awfully good. And even if they did, there was no sense that Seattle could make up a two-touchdown with two-two-point conversion deficit. But Rashid Shahid, the acquisition from the Saints at the trade deadline, returned to

punt. 58 yards with about eight minutes to go. They made the two-point conversion and it was game back on. That Rashid Shaheed Punt return may be the single biggest play of the season in the NFC because it turned around a game that was lost and it turned around a division standings from the Rams being not only in the driver's seat having swept Seattle if they had held on for the win, but well on their way to being the number one seed with the NFC playoffs going through SoFi in L.A. Shehid returned that punt return. Seattle had life. They rallied. They got the ball back, scored again. And then one of the most ridiculous, I don't think anybody's ever seen what happened on the two-point conversion that tied the game with about six and a half

minutes to go. It was a quick screen that hit Jared v. Helmet. Sam Darnold's pass did. Bounce towards the goal line was almost intercepted, but it hit the ground. Play over, right? Well, it was for a while because Seattle was actually lining up to kick the ball off to the Rams down 30 to 28. But the entire time on the Amazon broadcast, the referee expert, I think it was Terry McCauley, was suggesting that the pass from Darnold that hit Jared versus helmet was not a pass. It was a lateral. It was backwards. And the ball bounced to the end zone where it was almost intercepted by a ram, but wasn't.

It hit the ground. And then it rolled around in the end zone. And Seattle running back, Zach Charbonnet, just bent over, picked up the ball to throw over to the referee. He thought it was an incomplete pass. trying to recover a fumble, but because he was the only one in the end zone with the ball rolling around, he bent down, picked it up, they called that a clear recovery after a lateral. Now, the whole time they're discussing this on Amazon, Seattle's getting ready to kick off, and then they got the message the referee did, and they went over and started to look at the

replay. I thought it was not going to be overturned the call on the field because I thought there was a whistle. I thought the whistle blew the play dead. There have been reports that there was at least the faint hearing of a whistle after the ball hit the turf. It's only natural that the referees on an incomplete pass, which is what everybody thought it was in the moment, they'd blow the play dead. Everybody walked around as if the play were dead. Zach Charbonate wasn't intending to recover a fumble. He just picked the ball up because he was walking by it and he happened to still

have been in the end zone when he picked the football up. So they overturned it and with Seattle lined up to kick off down 30 to 28 they changed the scoreboard to 30 to 30. Two point conversion good. One of the craziest plays ever. I still think that that's got to be a play here. You got to coach your defense to play it to the whistle. And if the whistle hadn't blown, go at least contest the ball in the end zone. But that just looked so much like an incomplete

pass. It looked like a pass. It got batted down at the line of scrimmage incomplete. Batted down by a helmet, but still not a complete pass. Turns out it was a lateral. Anyway, the game continues back and forth. The Rams missed a field goal from 48 yards out that would have given them a lead with under two minutes to go. Both teams had opportunities. The game went to overtime. Seattle won

the toss. Decided to kick off. They did. I think that's the right strategy with the new rules. You get the ball back. You know what you need. You have four downs to go get it. The Rams scored on their opening drive, 41-yard touchdown pass to who else

Pooka Nakua. And then Seattle answered with some of the best throws that Sam Darnold's made in a big game in his career. An absolute dime to Smith Najigba, a dime to Cooper Cup on the sideline, a touchdown pass to Smith Najigba, and then with 313 left in overtime, Seattle decided to go for the win, going for the two. Now, keep in mind, had they kicked the extra point, the overtime would have continued. There were three minutes and 13 seconds left. Seattle could have used timeouts. They would have had a two-minute warning. They could have potentially gotten the ball back and still won the game. They went for the two, mostly because they had to win the game. A tie would have

helped the Rams, not Seattle, because the Rams beat Seattle in their first head-to-head. They went for two really well-designed play and an easy pitch and catch from Sam Darnold to Eric Sawbert in the end zone, 38 to 37, an absolute spectacular football game. It had everything. It had the individual brilliant performances, Stafford Nakua. It had the controversy, the two-point conversion. It had the comeback nature, down 16 with nine minutes to go. Biggest comeback for Seattle in their franchise history. They had never won a football game in 171 tries down by six. 16 or more in the fourth quarter. And then it had overtime.

Not only did it have overtime, it had a touchdown on the opening drive, and then the other team answered with the touchdown, went for two, and converted it. Incredible, incredible football game last night. And the NFL just, they can't lose, man. You put these games on, and last night we talked about it. This was the biggest game of the year in the NFC, and it was a Thursday night game in one of the best environments in the NFL, NFL, and man did it live up to exceeded expectations.

But again, back to my big takeaway, the Rams were the better team the entire night. They had a punt return, a crazy two-point conversion, a missed field goal, and they still, and five drop passes in the game, and they still got beat by a point in overtime with Seattle needing to convert on three consecutive two-point conversions. Anyway, I think the Rams are the best team in football, certainly the best team in the NFC. I think Houston's the best team in the AFC right now, and yet they still have to qualify for the postseason.

They're fighting for a division and a potential wild card as well, and we've got big games coming up on Sunday. As far as Washington goes, tomorrow against the Eagles, a few keys to pulling it off. Number one is this. Washington has to do what they did last week. They have to be committed to running the football. You know, Philadelphia, in recent weeks without Jalen Carter, they've given up a lot on the ground. Now, the Raider game, notwithstanding, you really can't even count it.

It was such a blowout. The Raiders are so bad. But the Chargers and that loss on Monday Night Football, they ran the football with Omari and Hampton. and, by the way, with Justin Herbert, the Bears had one of the outlier performances of the season on Black Friday when they rushed for 281 yards at the link. I mean, they bullied Philadelphia in that game. This is why the Chicago thing, just I can't wait to watch tomorrow night. Can they, you know, bully Green Bay? They kind of did it when they lost a Green Bay a few weeks ago.

The Bears are clearly better than we all thought they were a few weeks ago. and the reason for it is they can really run the football and they get takeaways. But Philadelphia has given up yards on the ground recently, and it's because they have no Jalen Carter right now, and he's not going to play tomorrow. So Washington committing to running the football is keeping ahead of the sticks to me is a crucial aspect of the game tomorrow because drop back against Philadelphia is trouble. not only protection-wise, and I feel good about our offensive line.

Very good, but no Laramie Tunsel tomorrow. But still, I feel good about the line's ability. But their corners, their ability to cover. Last week was pitch and catch against, as Steve Souter said, that very vanilla giant defense. And the running game really set up play action. Philly, much more difficult to get open consistently, much more difficult to protect.

This is more of a Minnesota, you know, it's Vic Fangio, not exactly stylistically the same to Brian Flores, but meaning this is going to be harder against a team with that level of talent, that level of coaching than it was last week, and I think you've got to be able to run the football to have a chance and stay ahead of the chains and possess the football.

You know, keep your defense off the field, clearly. That's a big part of all of these games. for our team in particular. I think they can run the football. That's the thing. I think that they actually will have a chance to run the football. We'll see. Number two is this. They've got to win in the red zone defensively. Philadelphia offensively, not consistent as we know. You know, Jalen Hertz has started to cut it loose a little bit more. He did against the Chargers. He threw four picks. Now, if you watch that game, two of those picks were not on him. And he had a couple of big time throws and a couple of big time throws that were dropped by A.J. Brown. But I certainly

expect and think that pretty much any team Washington plays is going to move the football against them defensively. Where they have to win is in the red zone on a condensed field where it becomes a little bit easier. Philadelphia is not the same running team they were last year. They're not, you know, a team that's going to, we've seen it at times. They'll let it, you know, rip across the middle. You'll see Jalen Hertz throw some tight windows, but really his preference is to not turn the ball over. They feel like with their defense, even if they don't get touchdowns and they kick field goals, they'll be okay. You know, they've won games this year, 16 to 9, 10 to 7. You know, we've seen those games with Philadelphia this year. And I'm

sure against Washington, they're not thinking they need 28. But Washington, to hang in there, has to come up big in the red zone. And they've done that a few times in recent weeks. Going back to the Miami game where they held the dolphins, you know, the reason they had a chance to win that game is they held the dolphins to one for five in the red zone. Denver got down there five times two and converted on three of them. So that was not as good. And then, of course, Minnesota was really just, you know, everything that could go wrong, went wrong against Minnesota.

But last week, in the Red Zone, pretty good for Washington, you know, in the early portion of the game and then at the very end of the game. So, Red Zone defense, critical tomorrow. Number three, special teams tomorrow. Washington has good special teams. has them as the fourth best overall special teams unit in the league. I know the kicker is a big part of that. That is true. But they are outstanding in their coverage units.

Tresway is a great punter. I think hidden yardage in this game could be big. A Jalen Lane big return and a couple of minus ones or, you know, one or two yard returns on punts after a 53, 54-yard punt last week. It was a 55-yard punt and a negative three-yard return that took. totally flipped the field. The Eagles offensively have not been able to be consistent offensively driving the football great distances and scoring touchdowns all year long. I think special teams big tomorrow and the hidden yardage part of it, huge. They've got a nice

returner in Britt Covey, by the way, so they got to do a good job on him. But Jalen Lane would be nice to see him get a couple of opportunities. Philadelphia punts. They're not a team that is consistent offensively, and I know that our defense hasn't been a consistent defense, but hopefully they can force a couple of puns from the 30 or inside the 30, giving Jalen Lane a couple of legit opportunities. And then lastly, and this is, you know, every week with our team, but especially when they're playing a good team. You know, last week they lost the turnover margin, won the game.

They did also lose, though, the penalty margin was significant. and they won the game. So they made a lot of mistakes. They didn't play a clean game. They put the ball on the ground twice at the end of the game, and yet they won. Why the Giants not going to happen against Philadelphia? They've got to play a clean game.

They've got to catch footballs. They've got to keep the penalties to a minimum because penalties will derail drives against a good defensive team like Philadelphia. And then you can't turn the ball over. You probably have to be plus in the game. this game to win the game. In Philadelphia, over the years, has been exceptional, obviously, in not turning the ball over. 41 and 2 during the Nick Siriani era when they win the turnover battle. So those are the four. Run the football, stay ahead of the sticks. I think they can run the

football with Bill and with Rodriguez tomorrow. Rodriguez healthy and ready to go. Number two, red zone defense, you know, force Philadelphia into a two-for-five. day or a two for four day or a one for three day in the red zone. I would imagine they're going to be in the red zone enough, but you've got to hold them to a porous day. By the way, I don't know why I thought, I was just looking at this as we were talking. I said they had a good day in the red zone against the Giants last week. The Giants were actually three for four in the red zone. They got to stop in the fourth quarter when they needed it. But they got to be what they were against the dolphins. You know, they got to be outstanding in the red zone.

And then I think special teams, hidden yardage and winning that battle will be big. A big play would be nice. No missed PATs like last week. And then lastly, it's not only got to be a clean game, it's got to be a plus game in the mistake area. Philadelphia's got to hurt themselves with penalties and drops and turnovers. And Washington has to play a clean football game. I actually, and you'll hear it in the smell test, I like Washington plus the points, plus the seven. I think it's going to be something like 20 to 15, something like that. Maybe it's,

you know, a late score going for two that they miss, but maybe they get the ball back down 2015 with a chance. Who knows? This is kind of a big game for Philadelphia from this perspective, even though they are in the driver's seat with three to go. They'd have to lose all three and Dallas would have to win all three for them not to win the division and become the first NFC East repeat division winner since 2004. But if they were to lose tomorrow here in Landover,

then Dallas really has something to play for on Sunday against the Chargers. If they can win at home against the Chargers, not going to be easy, then you could get the setup where Philly goes to Buffalo next week. Dallas comes to Washington on Christmas Day. Dallas wins,

Philly loses in Buffalo, and then it comes down to the final Sunday. day where Washington's playing Philly with a chance potentially to end their season if Dallas were to beat the Giants on the same day. So if you're a Philly fan, you're like, let's get this over with. Let's beat Washington. Let's end it. We can rest. We'll get Lane Johnson back for the playoffs. We'll get Jalen Carter back for the playoffs. And they still have seating to play for in the final two games, but they'll at least have the division wrapped up. Again, just to repeat, Philly wins the division with a win tomorrow or a Dallas loss on Sunday.

20 to 15, Philly. Close game, closer than maybe some of you would think. I don't think I've been that sharp here in predicting Washington final scores. I did have him beating the Giants, but I also think I had him beating Minnesota. That was not very close. All right. So I wanted to finish up this opening segment by playing something for you guys. It's a four-minute clip.

It's Sean McVeigh's post-game press conference following the game last night in Seattle, the epic 38 to 37 overtime loss for the Rams in Seattle. I'm going to play it for you because I watched it a little while ago at the request of a friend. and it's a bit odd, it's a bit bewildering, actually, because after one of the greatest games we've seen in years, there weren't any questions about the actual game. So you need some context if you don't have it already, and I'm going to give it to you.

The lead-up to the game last night dealt with a lot of talk about the Rams' wide receivers. Number one, Devante Adams was hurt, and was ultimately held out of last night's game. So Puka Nakua's 12 catches, 225 yards, two touchdowns without Devante Adams on the field and with the attention of the entire Seattle defense. He was spectacular. But the lead-up to the game also included some controversy for Nakua during the week.

First of all, he criticized officials at one point earlier in the week. and just said something to the extent of the refs are the worst, some of the rules are the worst, et cetera, et cetera. And he took a little bit of heat for that. But then he participated in a live stream on social media with two internet personalities that showed up at Ram's practice and then I guess just barely outside the facility. They shot a video with Nakua.

and they suggested to him that he performed some sort of specific anti-Semitic movement during touchdown celebrations. But he didn't realize it was anti-Semitic. And it went, you know, out into the, you know, ether, everybody saw it, and he was criticized roundly. And he had to put out a statement saying, quote, when I appeared the other day, on a social media live stream, it was suggested to me to perform a specific movement as part of my next touchdown celebration. At the time, I had no idea this act was anti-Semitic in nature and perpetuated harmful stereotypes against Jewish people. I deeply apologize to anyone who was offended by my actions, as I do not stand for any form of racism, bigotry, or hate, or of another

group of people. So that was part of the backdrop heading into the game. You know, I think that there was a general understanding that this was more naivete than anything else, that he really was being sincere, that he did not know what they were asking him to do was anti-Semitic. So anyway, the game happens last night. He's brilliant in the game. And then apparently shortly after the game, he tweeted something else out about the officials,

about the two-point conversion, the crazy two-point conversion, somewhat critical of it. So now we go to Sean McVeigh's press conference. And what you're going to hear is essentially all of the questions asked of Sean McVe during this post-game press conference following one of the most incredible football games we've seen in a long time that just had so much to it. He opened up by giving a quick, you know, intro like coaches do in these post-game pressers. And he did say something to the effect of. I have no idea what happened on that two-point conversion. It wasn't explained to me. I don't, I've never seen anything like it. Now I'll open it up for questions. And that's what I'm going to

play for you is the Q&A. It's about four minutes long. And what you'll notice is that there's not One question, not one, during the entire press conference, about anything having to do with the game. It's all about Puka Nakua, who, by the way, had just tweeted out more criticism of the referee shortly after the game, something that that's where they start. You'll hear that's where they start. Sean doesn't even know about it. And then they get into the stuff that happened during the week. But after this unbelievable football game, four minutes of grilling McVeigh,

about Nakua. You know, so what are you asking me right now? Do you, are you okay? I can't answer questions about something that I'm not aware of. Okay, but are you okay with players kind of expressing frustration over things like that? Or is that something that you hope that they kind of keep for themselves? I had to have more information before I answer any of those kind of questions. What conversations have you had with Buka about his live stream this week?

Yeah, he was very apologetic. I don't think he understood the totality of some of the things. I think he issued that apology. I know this guy's heart. And for anybody that was offended, terribly sorry about that. I know he feels that same exact way. He's a young guy that's a great kid that's continuing to learn about, you know, just the platform that he has. I love him.

We're going to continue to put our arm on him and help him learn and grow. But we never want to do things that ever offend anybody, and I know he feels that same way. How about those guys coming into your property at the facility in a short week as you're preparing for the biggest? Yeah, I don't know anything about that stuff. They came on our property. They were outside of property. He said on the live show that you were mad. I was.

I don't think, no. Did he say my name? He said the boss. He's lost man. I assume that was he was. It wasn't me. Yeah. Did it feel like a distraction this week?

No, it wasn't a distraction at all. Did you think his play showed that he was distracted? I didn't think so either. He went off today. He didn't, and you know what? And I apologize for, you know what? I love this. team. And man, when you put out as much as our group does and you care so much about something

and you come up short, it's incredibly disappointing. But as it relates to just the things that you're asking, you know, we always want to make sure that we handle ourselves with class, learn from it or put my arm around him and continue to educate our guys. I love this team. I love his heart. I think he's going to continue to grow and mature. And I'm going to be there right there with him to continue to help do that. As far as the other things, I know that that wasn't a distraction. There were some things that came up with you address it and you keep it moving. And I think, you know, most importantly, you never want to offend anybody. And I know that that's where his heart is as well. As far as the game's concern, it was a great back and

forth battle between two really good football teams. What I was referring to is, is that I've never quite seen anything like what happened on the two-point conversion where you're lined up to kick off. Then they say it's a fumble because they had the clear and obvious recovery. Now you tack it on. You make it a 30-30 game. Very interesting. Didn't get a clear explanation of everything that went on just because of some of the timing of it. They were trying to be able to do that, but that's the thing that I've said. I've never seen anything or never been a part of anything like that. And I've grown up around this game.

I'm not making excuses. We don't do that. I don't believe in that. It doesn't move us forward. But we do want clarity and an understanding of, you know, the things that we can do to minimize that when we rejected the two-point conversion. We could criticize the officials in the live stream. Yeah, we don't want to do that.

criticized the officials on Twitter just now. Was that part of your conversation with him after the live stream? No, I have not spoken to him yet, so I just found out about that. We'll continue to learn. You said you'll put your arm around him and you'll talk through this with him. When he continues to do this stuff and he's tweeting it after a game, do you feel like conversations are enough to get it fixed? Well, yeah, it's going to get fixed.

Trust me on that. He's responsible, he's respectful, and I'm going to continue to help him grow. And I'm with him every step of the way. Thank you, guys. Thank you, guys. If you get a chance to watch this, it's kind of worth it because you'll see an absolute professional communicator and a poised one at that, even though you'll see he starts to get a little bit annoyed, as every question is about Puka Nakua's previous week and his postgame tweet,

rather than a question or two maybe about one of the greatest games in recent NFL history. Now, let me be clear about one thing. I absolutely believe it's appropriate for somebody to ask about the postgame tweet. And even to go back, if you've got a question about Nakuwa's live stream, that had been pretty much played out during the course of the week. I don't have a problem with that. I think those are completely appropriate questions. but for all of the questions in that follow-up to be about Nakua seems nuts.

And look, Nakua, you know, was stupid to go into that locker room and tweet something out critical of the referees after that game. I mean, I think he got fined for his earlier week criticism, and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets fined again. I just thought it was interesting, and it's a master class if you watch it in somebody who really, in a very emotional state following a loss like that, being able to conduct himself the way he does and do it as just a supremely confident and self-aware communicator. Really, really like Sean McVeigh. I like his team this year, too. I mean, they lost a game in which they had 581 yards and scored 37 points.

What a wild game. Jay Gruden next, after these words from a few of our sponsors. Hey guys, it's great to have Harry's as a sponsor on today's show. I've been a customer of Harry's Razors for five or six years now, going back to the first time they advertised on the podcast, and I became aware of their product, and I fell in love with their product. It's not only a great shave, but I realized very early on that the blade last It lasted much longer than my previous razor blade did.

And it was very affordable. Harry's owns their own world-class blade factory in Germany. No outsourcing, no middleman. They control the entire process from steel to shelf that keeps costs low. Why pay $30 for refills when Harries gives you better blades for a fraction of that? Harry's has launched their most advanced razor ever, and it's still cheaper than Gillette Fusion 5. If you don't love your shave, Harry's will make it right.

No questions asked. They offer a risk-free trial, meaning there's zero downside to giving it a shot. Harry's plus is Harry's heaviest razor handle ever, made from metal, never plastic, designed to fit comfortably in your hand.

A heavier handle means more control and a luxury feel. Harry's doesn't just make razors. They've got a full line of grooming essentials from shaved gel to deodorant to body wash all thoughtfully made and priced to stock up. For a limited time, my listeners can get the Harry's Plus trial set for only $10 at harries.com slash Sheehan.

This set includes the all-new Harry's Plus razor, one refined five-blade cartridge, a two-ounce foaming shave gel, and a travel cover to protect your blades on the go. just head to harries.com slash she and to claim this offer and after you make your purchase they'll ask you where you heard about them please support this show and tell them that i sent you so guys i introduced you to a really good product a while back and i want to remind everybody for those of you that have been wearing the same boxer briefs the same any kind of underwear for a long time now i've got a better answer for you i want to tell you about skims for men, something I've discovered recently, the softest underwear I've ever worn. I got a few pairs of the 5-inch boxer briefs so comfortable, no matter what you're doing, from sitting in a chair in your office to working out, they are so comfortable. They don't bunch up.

They were made to recover from every stretch. The fabric is cool to the touch, and it just seems to mold to your body and never lose its shape. This is so different from the synthetic feeling I used to get from what I used to wear. Skims is made with an undeniable soft midweight cotton that allows you to breathe. Skims for men comes in plenty of colors, plenty of sizes. It's the perfect time of the year, guys, to shop skims men's at skims.com. Let them know we sent you. After you place your order, select podcast in the survey and select this show in the drop-down menu that follows. If you're looking for the perfect gifts this season,

the Skims Holiday Shop is now open at skims.com. Windonation is the presenting sponsor of this show and this segment with Jay Gruden. Their year-end sale has 12 days left, 50% off everything and 0% interest for five years. You cannot beat that deal. If you've been thinking about purchasing new windows to replace your old ones so that your home looks better and your heating and air conditioning bills go down, all I ask is to give Window Nation a shot.

Give them a shot to come out to your home and give you a free estimate. You'll actually find out during that estimate process which windows actually need to be replaced. Window Nation will take care of that estimate day in an hour or less. Their guarantee on window installation is a day or less. They've got over 45,000 five-star reviews, and they offer a lifetime warranty on the purchase. You can't go wrong with Window Nation. It all starts with a free, no obligation, no pressure in-home estimate.

Call them at 86690 Nation or head towindonation.com and get access to their year-end sale, 50% off everything, and 0% interest. until the year 20.30. Jay Gruden joins us as he does every Friday during football season. The former head coach of the Washington Redskins is on fire with his NFL lock of the week on this podcast. He's hit on 10 of his last 11. He had Chicago last week, length, seven and a half. That was a laffer. The week before that, he had the Rams at Arizona. That was a laffer. The games recently haven't even been close. This is a show that's been given out,

winners all season long, and Jay is as hot as anybody right now, 10 of his last 11 on his NFL lock of the week. We will get to that coming up. But let's just start with last night's game of the year, one of the best games we've seen really in recent years. Seattle's 38, 37 overtime win over the Rams. I know you watched it. Give me your thoughts. Yeah, it was insane. You know, I almost went to bed when it was 30 to 14, 16 point lead. after that interception at the goal line, Sam Darno through. And then, lo and behold, Rashid Shahee gets the punt return, two-point play, and then come back and tie it, go to overtime and win it.

But the question I have is on a two-point play that they overturned for the fumble. I thought the Dave Casper rule was if you fumbled it and could advance at the end zone, unless you were the one that fumbled it. Yeah, well, it's the fourth down fumble rule, and it's the fourth down fumble rule, you know, that I thought, That is true, but didn't the ball ricochet into the end zone? Is that where it actually? I guess it was tipped by a ram player, so they touched it first.

All bets are offset, I guess. Yeah. I don't know. Yeah. I'd have to go back and look. My initial reaction was, how are they going to overturn this? There's no chance the whistles weren't blowing. You know, on the incomplete pass, what they thought was an incomplete pass.

but they said that the whistle did not blow, you really do have to coach defensive players on almost any incomplete pass no matter where it's thrown. Forward backwards doesn't matter because you don't know the quarterback may have lost the ball from the pocket forwards. You've got to recover

and go pick up every football until that whistle blows, right? Yeah, scoop and score. Haley worked on that in practice all the time. Balls loose. You scoop it up. have no idea if the open-hand rule, if it was a fumble. Yeah, you're exactly right. And that was a case there. And, you know, they did try to dive on it. The defensive back tried to

intercept it. He didn't get it. And I mean, I just kind of let it fall on the ground. And Charbonnet picked it up and lobehold a two-point play. But that was a very weird play. You know, I've never seen anything like that where everybody's on the sideline, get ready to kick off. Then, hold on. We got a review. Well, yeah, I mean, the, you know, the referee expert, and I forget who it is, is it Mary McCauley or is that NBC, whomever it is on Amazon, was actually all over it, you know, as they were going to line up to kick it off. But he wouldn't talk about the whistle until actually the kickoff had taken place and they went back and looked at it again. And they answered the question at that point, the whistle did not blow to stop the clock.

Yeah, you know, I'm looking at it. Bottom line is, is that the fumble doesn't land on the ground. until it's at the goal line. And a Rams player is the first one to touch it because he's trying to what he thinks intercept the pass. But it's not a pass. Crazy. Well, initially the RAM player deflected it.

Yeah. And then the RAM player tried to intercept it. Right. Two RAM players touched it first, I guess. But the ball doesn't hit the ground, I'm saying, until the goal line. Oh, yeah, exactly right. But, yeah, the old Raiders play against the Chargers was insane.

What a game, though, really. Like, without that punt return, and I said this in the open of the show, that punt return could ultimately decide the NFC. Now, we'll talk about the difference between the two teams here in a moment, but if Seattle goes on to capture the one seed, that punt return by Shaheed changed the entire landscape of the NFC playoffs. Yeah, it puts San Francisco right in a mix, too. Cisco wins out, they win it.

Right. Yeah. What did you think of Darnold prior to overtime? I thought he was very average, very Sam Darnold, big game, Sam Darnold. You know, he throws a slant right to the defense of the nickel, which, I mean, you have to see the nickel. You can't just let him fall off and intercept a slant. And he throws one right to the dropping defensive end or tackle. So, yeah, it was not a very good game for Sam, but he came back in a big way, made some big.

time throws, had a lot of help from return, and Smith and Jigba finally got going, got the touchdown, and Cooper Cup made a hell of a catch there in overtime, so I'm glad for Sam, because he takes a lot of heat. He's been very successful for the last couple years as far as regular season wins. I think he's the first quarterback with two different teams that win 10-plus

games since Tom Brady, I read. So you've got to be doing something right if you're winning double digits in two different cities in two years. Do you trust him in the postseason? No. really don't. No, sorry. You know, after what the Rams did to them, you know, with the physicality of the three

tight-end looks, I think a lot of teams are going to look at that and try to pound Seattle and that'll be Seattle's nemesis, I think, stop and running at some of these good teams in NFC. Yeah, I mean, I came away from last night's game not thinking anything other than that the Rams are the best team that I've seen all year in the NFC, and that even if they have to go back to Seattle in the divisional round or the NFC champion. championship round and that I feel comfortable with them going back. I mean, punt return, missed field goal, the craziest two-point conversion you've ever seen.

The Rams also had a couple of bad breaks on their drives, you know, late in the game. I just, to me, the Rams still look like the best team in the NFC. Do you agree with that? I do. I just worry about, you know, I know it's hard to do because the Seahawks couldn't take away Pookley had 50 fantasy points while I'm playing against him fantasy football this week, but that's not good.

But somebody's just have to take him away. And, you know, Devante needs to come back because you know, these receivers, the receiver from Pitt, I don't know, two to out well didn't even play, I don't think. Yeah. High ends aren't very much of a factor in a passing, and they have a lot of drops.

Yeah. Rams a lot. You know what I mean? So I worry about the other guy who can help Stafford out in passing situations, but maybe they don't have to get there because Cardin Williams and, you know,

and what's his other running back? that quorum, they're pretty damn good. So they have a game that can travel because they can run the ball and the cold weather and all that stuff. So I do like the ramps, but I do worry about them in passing situations to offensive line and then trying to find another weapon to go to other than Puka. Yeah, I mean, there were at least four or five drops. I mean, Stafford also missed one big one downfield, but he threw four or 57 with like four

or five drops in the game. I mean, Puka Nakua has done this now several times this year. last. And that is, you know, do what the best receivers in the game can do, which is literally dominate and take over a game. Like, that was so impressive. Like, he's getting targeted in the, you know, 16, 17 times catching almost everything. I mean, this is more of an offseason conversation, but is Nakua, you know, elite? Is he a top 3, 4, 5 receiver? Oh, 100%. Yeah. Production speaks for itself. Right, and his strength of his hands and his route running.

You know, he's not the fastest guy in the world, but he runs every route with the same speed, so it's hard to cover them. You know what I mean? Some receivers that are really fast, they tempo it down a little bit, and it's easy to jam them, and all of this guy runs through contact. He's got strong hands. He catches the 50-50 balls. He goes up with one hand.

I mean, you can have him doubled, and he splits double teams. I mean, he's unbelievable. So, yeah, anytime he's on the field, obviously the ram will have a chance to win. It's just going to be really, really close. You know, the Eagles are getting better right now. Obviously, Seattle, the 49er will be a threat. It's going to be fun to watch the NFC. The Lions aren't out of it yet.

So the Bears are a very tough physical football team on offense. So it's going to be interesting here come playoff time. I mean, these playoffs have been talking about it for a while, but it's, you know, first of all, it's going to feel and look new, especially in the AFC, with New England and Denver, you know, potentially Jacksonville in there. You know, no Mahomes, maybe no Lamar Jackson. no Joe Burrow. And in the NFC, you know, Chicago could end up being the one seed. The NFC West, I mean, we're going to decide the NFC South over the final three weeks

because the Bucks and Panthers play each other twice. It's going to be nuts. Now, the second place team more likely than not in the NFC West, let's just say the Seahawks do win the division. And the 49ers have the same, you know, win out and their champs as well. The second place team will end up playing that NFC South winner on the road. in the first round, and they'll be a touchdown favorite. Like, if it's the Rams at Bucks or Rams at Panthers, I mean, the Rams were a 10-point favorite at Carolina, you know, two weeks ago, and they lost.

So the divisional round game would be the rematch Ram Seahawks, or it could be Rams 49ers or Seahawks 49ers. We'll see how it goes. But, man, that divisional round, more likely than not, one of the games will be an NFC West matchup, which will be insane. Yeah, I'm at assuming that Tampa Bay or Carolina lose in the first round of home.

You know, Tampa Bay, say what you want, they've been struggling a little bit, but you put them in a playoff game at home with Mike Evans healthy now and Abuca, and Bucky Irving, who's healthy now? You're right. Chris and Worc's finally back out on the shelf. Baker, Baker can get hot now.

Yeah. I mean, and Todd Bulls can dial up a couple of blitzes and make a few plays, so you never can count those guys out either. It's interesting. We may have talked about this last week, but when it comes to the NFC, it feels to me like, A, the 49ers have been flying under the radar, and now I would add the Eagles to that.

I think people have dismissed the Eagles as Super Bowl contenders. What do you think? I think they have as well, but you can't do it. They have too much star power on their team, and they can, I mean, if their offense gets gone and plays a B-plus game, I mean, it's better than most teams can play. You know what I mean, they have the ability to do it. I mean, they have star power at running back. Jaylor Hurts has been there and done that.

They have the two star receivers. You know, they get a big time left tackle, and they obviously can do it. And defensively with Big Fangio and what he's already accomplished and the players that they have on defense, the secondary that they have, they're playing at a high level. Hell yes, the Eagles can do it. Yeah, incredible. When we get to the postseason, and so many big games this weekend.

We'll get to him in a moment. But Washington plays tomorrow. They play at home against Philadelphia. Philadelphia. When the schedule makers put these two games out there, they thought these would be exciting, season-ending matchups twice in the final three weeks, maybe to decide the NFC East. It didn't work out that way, for sure. And now they're playing out the string. And since we last talked, they did officially shelve Jaden for the season. So we'll start there. I know you answered the question last week, but now that it's actually done. and official, he's not going to play again this year. What are your thoughts? Yeah, I'm disappointed, but I think probably long-term, it's probably the right answer.

You know, I look at Joe Burrow, who's going to play against Miami this week. I look at all these other stars on their relative teams who are out of the playoffs and they're playing. You know, so I just thought if he's healthy should play, but being that he's had a knee and other injuries and a broken arm or whatever you've had, it's probably the right thing to do.

because it would really be awful if something did happen to in the last three weeks of meaningless games. But my argument is no games meaningless to me, you know, because their competition at the NFL, it's a regular season game. You always want to try to put your best team on the field that is healthy and play. But, and it means a lot to Philadelphia. It means a lot to number one seed. It means a lot to playoff seedings for Philadelphia. So it is a meaningful game to me, but I understand why they did it. Yeah. The question would be that, and it doesn't look like they're doing this at this point, even though Laramie Tunsell won't play tomorrow because he was injured last week.

But now that Jaden's not playing, I have suggested, and I'm curious if you have a response or agree or disagree with this, I wouldn't play anybody that is a big time chip for me next year. And I'm talking about experienced guys like Tunsell and Terry and Cosme and, you know, even guys like Louvo and Kinlaw. It's not a long list. It's five, six guys. But guys that are absolutely going to be critical to your 2026 season, if I'm not risking my quarterback, I wouldn't risk them either. What do you say? Yeah, that's the issue that you have when you take away your quarterback who's supposedly healthy. Now you're asking Kinlaw to go out there in Wagner and talk about.

console and all these other guys. They're going to sit console, I guess. So where does it end? I mean, you only have 53 guys on your roster. You know, if you have to promote practice squad guys. You don't want to put a product out there that's going to just absolutely get destroyed by the Eagles and embarrass your team at home. I mean, this is a home game. It's Philadelphia Eagles, division rival. So, yeah, it's a very tough decision for them. I would personally would only sit Jade and play the rest of the guys healthy and try to get a win against Philadelphia because it is a division rival. It means a lot in the playoff season. be kind of a home game. I'm assuming it'll be a Philadelphia takeover. Oh, yeah. It'll be a Philadelphia takeover. You know, maybe I've asked this of you before, but do you remember the first time

coaching here where you walked into a stadium and it was like a road game? Because we had, we had that many, many times during the last, you know, 10, 12 years in particular. And what your reaction was, do you remember who it was against? Well, I remember the first time we had to do silent. Cal at Home was against Minnesota, and a skull chant. We had to use silent Cal at home because it was too loud. So that was the most evident one. Dallas always traveled well, obviously. Even though it was Cincinnati, we had games against Pittsburgh.

We had to, you know, I could remember, you know, threw a pass in the end zone, and I heard a crowd, and I had to touch down. I was an interception. I go, what the hell? Yeah, right. Yeah, so it happens all across the stadiums, and it's happened in Dallas right now. It's happening in a lot of places, you know, where teams are traveling very well, and it means a lot, and these home fans are like, hey, I could sell my ticket,

get the money back, and recoup, and watch a game at home. I sell it to a road fan, so it happens across the league, but it did happen a lot to us, obviously, when we weren't very well. We're playing very good, because it's a good city to come to to watch a game. The first, you know, Landover Stadium Takeover, I really remember, was 2008, Jay. They were playing the Steelers on Monday Night Football. It was a Jim Zorn team, and it looked.

least 75 to 80% of the crowd was Pittsburgh. I mean, the terrible towels were flying. I mean, it was a true road game. Doc and I were doing a show together at that time, and we literally came in the next day and acted during the entire show as if Washington, it was okay because it's a tough place to play Pittsburgh on the road. I wanted to ask you just about Christmas and holiday games in particular. I mean, everybody's got families. and players have young kids, you know, at home in many instances. Was that ever difficult to deal with? Thanksgiving and Christmas in particular.

You never played on Christmas Day like Washington Will, but you had a couple of games on Christmas Eve. Was it a thing? Was it a challenge to keep everybody's focus? Yeah, I mean, it's hard. Thanksgiving, you know, because those are big holidays, obviously, if you have young families, which a lot of people are, a lot of players are starting families,

A lot of coaches have families, and you want to get together with them because it's really the only time. But obviously, when you sign up to be a coach, you understand the schedules, and you're going to have to sacrifice certain holidays to do your job. And that takes precedent, obviously, over the holiday turkey. So just the way it is in pro football, and you have to accept it and deal with it. Hopefully you'll find some time, either Christmas Day to get some time off or the day after Christmas or whatever it might be. And you might just have to tweak the days.

Okay, Christmas is on a day. 25th, but this year, it's really on the 26th. You're celebrating on 26th or after New Year's, you know, we'll get together then and do it. So it's not that big a deal, really. I think the most important thing is try to stay relevant this time of year and try to get your team in the playoffs and win

games, and that's what's most important. You can celebrate holidays anytime in the family. I don't know if you've heard of what Dan Quinn's doing with these final four games. He's presented it to his team as if it's like the NCAA tournament for the division, because they closed with four division games.

Giants, Eagles, Cowboys, Eagles. Last week, you know, it was survive in advance. You know, they beat the Giants, so now they get to play the Eagles. And that's how he's pitching it to his team to give them, you know, a reason to be motivated and to play these games. Did you ever have to do anything like that at the end of the year? Be creative like that? I never did anything that creative.

That's pretty cool, I guess. But, you know, the players know, situation. They know that they're meaningless as far as the playoffs and the ultimate goal. of winning your division, going to the playoffs and winning Super Bowls are dead. So now it's just a matter of trying to go out there on a Sunday or Saturday, whatever it is, and compete against your rivals and put your best

stuff on tape. Because these guys are still competing for future jobs and contracts. And they have incentives they're trying to get, too, which are very, very important to these guys, too. So they have a lot to play for still. Even though the team aspect of it and the goal aspect of it is over,

there's a lot of individuals that need to play well for future contracts. all right uh tomorrow against the eagles uh obviously big one for the eagles they clenched the division with a win or a dallas loss they they would have to lose out and dallas would have to win out um for dallas to win the division what did you what do you make of just dallas's collapse here the last two weeks stunning really you know i made the comment that they look like the best team in pro football after they beat the uh eagles and chiefs back the back you know i thought that back was playing high pickers was starting to play very well and cd was getting healthy and

Ferguson was playing good. Javante's running hard between the tackles and defensively at Quinn and Williams and obviously getting digs back possibly that even come back but I thought their defense took a step forward as well and they laid to make against Minnesota

and they're out of it. I mean it's unbelievable so shocking to me because they have a lot of good players on that roster. A lot of good players on that football team and they couldn't get it done. So that's pro football for you. That's Dak Prescott. That's been the cowboy way for the last 10, 15, 20 years.

I mean, hell, they haven't won a playoff game since, what, 1992 or something like that. Well, they fooled me. They did win one a few years. They've won a couple of playoff games. They haven't been to the NFC championship games since the 95 season. Yeah, they've,

longest stretch. And, you know, they have the talent and the star power, they just can't get it done. It's just been their M.O., so they fool me once. They won't fool me twice ever again. All right. So how do you beat the Eagles if you're watching? Washington with Marcus Marriota and company tomorrow.

Well, I think the recipe that they played with, I guess, the Giants was very good. They ran the ball extremely well. The time of possession was on their side. They converted some third down, kept their defense fresh, and that's the only way to do it. They have to continue that mindset, extra tight ends, whatever it might be very similar to, you know,

the Rams attack with the 13 personnel and try to pound them and try to get the tough yards and stay out of third and long because, you know, Philadelphia can rush a passer. But they have been giving up some yards rushing the football. saw what the Bears did to them. They gutted them running the football between the tactics, so I think that's got to be their game plan going in and then get

Mario out outside the pocket, out some bootlegs, and some easy completions and go on, because if they try to drop back against them, they're not going to have much of a chance, you know, so especially with tons to out, so they have to have to run the ball and keep their defense fresh. Otherwise, Seek-Wan will have a big day. Jail and Hersch will run all over the place.

Obviously, AJ Brown will make some players against the secondary, so it'll be a nightmare if they don't possess the football, at least 25 minutes in the game. All right, who are you picking? Who are you picking? Eagles are going to beat them to... Okay.

They're going to win. All right, let's look at a couple of the other end. It should be my pick of the week, but I'm not going to have my pick of the week against Washington. I did that once and we won, but I'm not going to do it again. I think if you feel like that's your pick of the week, you should pick it. No, but let me just tell you, what I've realized over the years, all people want, they just want winners. They don't care if they've got a route against their team or not. So they just want winners.

All right, we'll get to some of the other games and get your lock of the week after these words from a few of our sponsors. Guys, personal experience with a product that I want to tell you about, it's zbiotics and their product called pre-alcohol. Let's face it, after a nighted drinks, most at our age anyway, don't bounce back the next day like we used to. You either have that choice the night before of, do I have a drink or two, or do I pass? because I don't want to feel badly the next day. Well, there's a sure-fire way to wake up feeling fresh after drinks with friends. It's with pre-alcohol. Zbiotics pre-alcohol was invented by Ph.D. scientists to tackle rough mornings after drinking.

I've noticed a difference the next day after using pre-alcohol. You drink pre-alcohol before your favorite drink for me, Tito's soda, lime, or a beer. You wouldn't believe how great you feel the next day. With the holidays approaching, you're going to be at parties, you're going to have these opportunities where you're going to want to have one or two without waking up the next day feeling terrible. Go to Zbiotics.com slash Sheehan to learn more and get 15% off your first order when you use Sheehan at checkout. Zbiotics is backed with 100% money back guarantee. So if you're unsatisfied for any reason, they'll refund your money, no questions asked. Remember to head to Zbiotics.com slash Sheehan and use the code Sheean, S-H-E-E-H-A-N at checkout for 15% off.

Hey, guys, you know I'm a fan of Gold Belly. I've been talking about Gold Belly ever since the first time they advertised on this podcast. I'm a customer of Gold Belly. They ship the most iconic famous foods from restaurants directly to you wherever you live in the United States. It's perfect for hosting loved ones during the holiday season. It makes an unforgettable gift as well. Goldbelly can ship you show-stopping meals from the country's best steakhouses or the iconic Joe's Stonecrab in Miami.

How about famous desserts like Martha Stewart's incredible cakes or Junior's cheesecake from New York City? It's just something that works so well. It ships so well. It prepares so well. I promise you, if you're into certain foods that you can't get in your hometown but you've had in other cities, you've got to go to goldbelly.com. If you're looking for that perfect gift for everyone on your list or you want to impress your friends and family with an unforgettable meal and make hosting a breeze this holiday season, go to goldbelly.com and get 20% off your first order with promo code Sheehan. That's goldbelly.com Code Sheehan for 20% off your first order.

To get a chance to rate and review the show and you haven't done it already, it would be much appreciated. It really helps us out a lot, especially on Apple and Spotify. Apple gives you a chance to give us up to five stars. If you think the show deserves it, you can also write a quick one-to-two-sentence review. Just write you love the show, especially when Jay Gruden's on. on Fridays with his lock of the week. And also follow the show on Apple and Spotify as well.

All right, before we get to your lock of the week, I mean, we've had just great games in the NFL. Let's start tomorrow night, Soldier Field, Bears, Packers. Packers won a couple of weeks ago. I thought the Bears were impressive in that loss. But no Micah Parsons now the rest of the year. The Bears at home in a massive game in the NFC North. yeah i think the uh packers are a little bit beat up and uh the bears have a few injuries as well

but obviously micha parsons is a huge loss but you know the packers were just fine without micha last year and they still were able to stop the run and rush the passer a little bit gary's gonna have to have a big game against the bears or against the bears so uh but i do like the bears make up of their football team i like the physicality they play with on both sides of the ball i think the bears get it done in a very close low scoring game um running a football i just i i just i i i don't love the fact that they are a physical pound of football-type team. And Caleb Williams is doing some things outside the pocket off-script plays that are, he's playing at a high level right now.

So I do like the Bears. I mean, the Bears finish with the Packers, Niners next week on Sunday night football, and then the Lions at home. If they win the division, they will certainly have earned it. You know, I saw some stat early this morning that teams coming off games in Denver this year are 1 and 5, 0 and 6 against the number, by the way. And the Packers are coming off a brutal game in Denver, and they've got a short week.

So that may play into the game tomorrow night. Yeah, you saw what Bo Knicks did to him. Bo Nicks run on a ball, running around, buying time. And that's what Caleb can do as well. So I think that ability for a mobile quarterback against the Packer defense will be critical, and I think Caleb can make the place.

Bucks, Panthers, round one. They play twice over the final three weeks. Those games will decide the NFC South. Carolina is hosting this game, and Tampa is a three-point favorite on the road. Who do you like and why? It's tough because both teams have looked very, very good at times. Both teams have just looked like they don't deserve to be even close to be in a playoff team at times.

So it's, I mean, the Rams, they beat, I mean, the Panthers beat the Rams, for God's sake. They've won some huge games, and they just laid an egg last week. Who was it, New Orleans? ones, for God's sakes? I mean, and the same thing with Tampa Bay. So this would be a tough game for me to put any hard-earned money on. But if I would bet, I would take Baker-Mayfield and I would take Todd Bowles and the experience of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

I just never know what you're going to get from the quarterback at Carolina. Brace Young, he's never done. I'm going to take Baker Mayfield all day over Brace Young. All right. The team that, you know, you kind of have an affinity for, because you coach there for a season, and I think you follow them pretty closely. They are rolling right now. Jacksonville is, and they go to Denver for a huge AFC showdown.

Jacksonville, by the way, people, five wins in a row, and they are on fire offensively. They have been scoring at a high rate. Denver is just a three-point favorite at home against Jacksonville. Yeah, it's going to be an interesting game. I think Jacksonville had two key off- or in-season additions. I got Jacoby Myers, which is huge. That helps Trevor a lot.

And obviously, Brian Thomas Jr. is playing well and the running game E-TN out of the backfield, run on the football. They've been very efficient in that regard. I mean, the Jets just waited. But Jets were absolutely awful last week. I mean, I might have been off a three touchdown because the Jets last week. So I can't put too much into that game.

But going to Denver is a tough spot. Jacksonville hasn't played in the cold weather at all this year. I think it'll be a tough spot for them. I think Denver will get it done. But I think it'll be a close game. I think it's a three-point line already. but I think the outskakers know it's going to be a close game. I think it'll be a close game, but I think Denver gets it done.

Who do you like to prevail in the AFC South, Houston or Jacksonville? I love where Houston's at. Houston's climbing at the right time. There's a lot of teams that struggle a little bit, but they just gain momentum at the right time, and that's Houston, Texas, and I think Houston can win them. I think Houston has a chance to go to the Super Bowl, really, the way they're playing right now.

DJ's playing good. running games getting going a little bit. Woody Marks is playing pretty well. Obviously, Collins is a big-time player, but it's the defense that is just smothering people. Anytime you can smother people and have a guy like CJ Stroud, and I think they're very, very dangerous. I think Houston has a chance to get it done,

but I think Jacksonville schedule is pretty favorable after Denver. I think they played Tennessee and maybe Indianapolis without Daniel Jones, so I think Jackson will still win the division. What did you think of Rivers last week? I mean, it was pretty good for a 44-year-old coming off his couch, you know, it's just hard for a team that start a quarterback that has no mobility whatsoever. Doesn't have a very good arm to win. And I think they play, obviously they play Sam Fran, that'll be a tough spot for him, but I think he played pretty well. Pittsburgh still

maintains that one game lead over Baltimore. They'll finish up the season against each other, but Pittsburgh could lock it up with a win in Detroit and a Ravens loss. against the Patriots. Do you give the Steelers a chance in Detroit? I do not. I think Detroit rolls them. I just think Detroit's got too much firepower. You know, you think about the Pittsburgh's defense

and how good they are in the past, but they're like 28 this year. They're very average defensively. I don't know what story is on PJ Watt with his lung. If he's going to play or not, but I just think Detroit has way too many weapons. And I think they'll do enough to stop Aaron Rogers and that Pittsburgh offense.

So I think Detroit wins the game and puts Baltimore right back in it. that Baltimore can take care of business at New England. What about Baltimore at New England? Yeah, I think New England's had a great year. No doubt about it. And Drake May is a superstar in the making. And Baltimore is underachieved all year on offense,

so it's hard for me to take Baltimore. I hate taking underachievers, but I still think tomorrow will do enough to get it done somehow, some way. All right. Let's get to your lock of the week. it's hit 10 of the last 11 as mentioned in recently I mean just over pretty quickly

so who do you got this week? I got Cincinnati Bengals bouncing back it's not very often you're going to shut out Joe Burrow and I've got to think that Joe Burrow has a lot of pride at Jamar Chase these guys are going to put up some point to get some Miami Dolphins who's going to bench Tua and play Quinn yours for his first start

so you got a first start quarterback as a rookie this late in the season and you got a team that just got shut out and embarrassed and Joe Burrow with his I ain't sure I want to play anymore you know I'm not that happy I think he bounces back

and they put up big big time numbers against the Miami defense Jordan Brooks is questionable he's the best linebacker for the dolphins he's played he had an unbelievable year by the year so I like I like Cincinnati bounce back I'm playing the pride factor one team is

you know it's got a really big chip on her shoulder got embarrassed last week another team is just don't even want to come to work right now they got their ass beat their bests their quarterback Cincinnati minus four at Miami in a one o'clock game on Sunday's Jay's lock of the week do you like Joe Burrow? What do you think he's trying to get across

here in the last couple of weeks? I just think it's been tough, you know, with his injuries and they're losing, and he's used to win it. I mean, one national championship at LSUU, his first year he comes, he goes to the Super Bowl, and then he's had some injuries, and here in Cincinnati, it's dark, it's cold. You're like, ah, damn, we're out of the play. off, you know, he's a little depressed, but I think

you'll bounce back. I think you'll be fine. They paid Jamar Chase. They paid T. Higgins. They paid, I mean, they did everything you wanted to do. They just had it down here. That happened. Merry Christmas. Really appreciate all of this, and we'll talk next week. You got it, thanks, Kevin.

Jay Gruden, everybody. We'll get to the smell test to finish up the show next. Kevin looks where the John Q public is putting their cash and does the opposite. It's time for the The smell test. The smell test is always brought to you by My Booky. If you want to bet on sports, do it at My Booky.

My Booky's got everything you need for all of the college football, all of the NFL. You know, my bookie's got a very, very robust live online casino. They've got live racing as well in their own racing book. They've got everything you need. It is a one-stop shop for sports betting, and they do it fairly. going to get gouged on straight-bet football losses. You're going to pay minus 110 if you lose. You're not going to pay minus 130. The pricing is fair. The numbers are fair. And they're giving all of my listeners a 50% cash bonus when you sign up for the first time or when you come back

and reload as an existing customer with a new deposit. A 50% cash bonus means if you deposit $200, $300, my bookie will put another $100 into your account, so you'll have $300 total to bet with. Very few shops this time of year are offering that kind of an incentive, especially for existing customers. But you have to use my promo code. My promo code is DC Reload. D-C-R-E-L-O-A-D, when you use that promo code, they will give you 50% cash. bonus on your deposit. Again, mybooky.com, mybooky.ag.orgie.orgie.orgia promo code, DC reload.

All right, let's get to it. Last week, four and one, the three underdogs I gave out were all outright winners, Atlanta, New Orleans, and Minnesota. And the two favorites, I had Baltimore and then I had Kansas City, and Kansas City was still alive for a potential cover. had Mahomes stayed upright, and maybe they'd gotten it to overtime and scored a touchdown early. But 4-1 raises the overall season record to 100, and then 58 losses. That's 63.2%.

There are 11 pushes in that as well. Really, really good season. And this is a very busy football weekend, and there were a lot of games that fit the smell test criteria. I'm a bit nervous about that because, as I've been saying, one of these weekends, it's not going to go well. And even though I have a sizable, sizable advantage on the season, I'm not backing off. I'm not all of a sudden going to dip my toes so I end up with a really good record and I don't risk it. I give you the games that fit kind of the criteria, the contrarian criteria that I have. you know, anti-public, one.

I also want the team that the sharps are on much more so than the squares. And then there's a lot more. I get a lot of information from various people, and I have my own instincts on this thing. I've been doing it for a while. So let's get started. Nothing on tonight's game, as I mentioned up top. Miami tomorrow plus three and a half is a big anti-public side. I think many people think Miami's.

lucky to be in and that Notre Dame should have been in. Texas A&M had that great season until they lost in the season finale to Texas A&M. It probably benefited them on some level that they didn't have to play in the SEC title game, although I'm sure Mike Elko's squad wishes they had advanced as an undefeated team to play in that game. A&M at home, pretty tough. Lange three and a half Seems like a short number to most people. I'll take the Cains plus the three and a half. Oregon, out of the four playoff games, is the biggest public side, even though they're laying 21.

So give me James Madison plus the 21 points. Let's stick with Saturday and go to the NFL. Yeah, Washington's the biggest anti-public side. Philadelphia is absolutely a public bet for almost everybody figured that they got it together last week. If they win tomorrow, they clinch the division. And the number's been hanging out there at six and a half, seven. There are plenty of sevens out there now as well. And if, you know, you get Philadelphia against a four and ten team with the division title on the line

where they can clinch two weeks early, then the public likes that. the Eagles. So give me Washington plus the seven. Cleveland got thumped last week against Chicago. That was the Jay Grudenlock of the week, the Bears. And Buffalo had that massive comeback against New England. So sure, I'm going to give out the Browns plus 10 and a half at home against the bills. The Saints weren't outright winner and a smell test winner last week against the Carolina Panthers. And the Jets got smoked by Jacksonville. New Orleans laying seven at home against the Jets. I'll take the Jets plus the seven.

This line in particular, I knew I was going to need the underdog in this one, the moment I saw the points read. Minnesota laying three against the Giants. Keep in mind, the Vikings coming off two impressive wins, certainly the one on Sunday night over Dallas was impressive, and the Giants are terrible. I'll take the Giants plus three. against the Vikings. Denver's a big public play. Give me Jacksonville plus the three and a half.

The Steelers off that win, you'd think that they would be getting some action. No, Detroit desperately needs this game. They're laying seven. The Steelers are banged up with T.J. Watt and now Herbig out as well. Sure, I'll take the underdog. I'll take Pittsburgh. I think they can score against Detroit plus the seven. Many people think that the Ravens shouldn't be the favored team over the Patriots. So I'll take the Ravens and lay the three. That's the Sunday night game. I had one other Sunday afternoon game, and that is the Raiders off that horrific performance against the Eagles, where it looked like they had quit for the year.

Houston rolling, sure, I'll take the Raiders plus two touchdowns against Houston. That will be a big need for sports folks to get a Raiders cover. And then Monday night, I'll give it out right now. I like the Colts plus the six at home against the 49ers. That's a lot more games than I gave out last week. Miami tomorrow plus the three and a half. JMU plus the 21. In the NFL, the skins, plus seven.

Sunday, the Browns plus 10 and a half. The Jets plus seven. The Giants plus three. Jacksonville plus three and a half. The Steelers plus seven. The Ravens minus. 3, the Raiders plus 14, and then on Monday night, the Colts plus 6. So that is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 plays.

11 plays when there isn't a full college football card is a lot. Good luck. Back on actually Sunday morning with the recap to the Washington-Filadelphia game. It won't be out late Saturday night. I actually have holiday obligations with family in town on Saturday night after the game. But I will come in here Sunday morning to do a post game of Philly, Washington.