The Kevin Sheehan Show - Landon Collins Obsessed

Episode Date: September 20, 2019

Kevin opens the show with a reaction to the news that Redskins Sr/VP Communications Tony Wylie was resigning. Then his thoughts on why Landon Collins can't move on from his former team. The Smell Test is on a sizzling 10-0 ATS run after Tulane got a miracle cover last night. Kevin's Smell Test today gives out another 11 College games and 3 NFL games. <p> </p><p>Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices">podcastchoices.com/adchoices</a></p> Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You want it. You need it. It's what everyone's talking about. The Kevin Sheehan Show. Now here's Kevin. And Aaron, smell test. Now 10 straight wins. Aaron, courtesy of Tulane last night with an all-time miracle win. Had no business winning that game. First of all, for those of you that were tweeting me when Houston was up 287 telling me what a fool I was for giving. out Tulane minus five. How quickly they forget, Aaron, like 9 and 0 last week. How many people gave you a 9 and 0 week last week? Just hang in there with me. By the way, you'll never see 9 and 0 again. I'll never do it again. Typically, when you get on a heater like this, it's only a matter of time before it comes crashing down. But it didn't last night. Tulane was down 287. And somebody tweeted me, Aaron, at some point. Great call on they're going to run. They're going to

run the ball all over Houston. Well, they ended up with 325 yards rushing. They roared back. They tied the game. They took the lead. Then they got lucky at the end with Houston getting stopped and being held to a field goal. And then Tulane, when they got the ball back with 20 seconds left, they ran a trick play that was brilliant. It was they were lining up to, and they showed that they were going to kneel down and accept overtime. And instead, they handed the ball on a tricky number to one of the guys that was protecting the quarterback as he was supposed to kneel down. He ran for 25 yards.

That set up an opportunity to throw for field goal range. Listen, when you're laying 5, you don't want field goal, you want overtime. They throw the ball over the middle, it's complete. And I was like, God damn, they're going to kick a field goal. But he broke two tackles and ran it in for a touchdown. 38, 31, 2 lane. That was an all-timer, and it keeps the wind streak alive at 10. I have another 13 selections coming up in the smell test here shortly.

It is a Friday football show, but without a lot of the Redskins game preview because they play on Monday night against the Bears. But I'm going to start with some Redskins news. This happened yesterday after the podcast. Actually, it happened during the podcast, and we just, it was at the end of it and we decided not to address it because really the truth of the matter is most of you don't. even know who this person is. Tony Wiley is the senior VP of Communications or was in with the Redskins organization. And during the show or towards the end of the show yesterday, Tommy or Aaron, one of the two of you showed me, you know, breaking news.

Tony Wiley is resigning from the Redskins organization and he's going to go to the Special Olympics and wish Tony the best and that's a hell of an organization and probably a much better run organization than the one that he's been in for 10. years. But only with this organization is the resignation of the PR guy, breaking news. You know, just like last year when Brian Lafamina was fired, neither guy ever made a tackle through a pass, caught a pass, through a block, yet it's breaking news when somebody in the organization that's not on the football side of the organization resigns or gets fired. That's the organization's fault. I mean, obviously, there's been so much drama over the years that there's all this reporting

about, you know, recently all the employees that left the office. But I'm seriously waiting for someone in a press conference to ask Jay Gruden, hey, Jay, man, you lost Tony Wiley yesterday. How's that going to impact your past pro against the Bears on Monday night? Like, seriously, there's no other place where this would be a big deal except here. Most of you have never heard. of Tony Wiley. Unless you remember the moment in the Dallas game when Colt McCoy's coming off the field and they're trying to interview him and you hear Tony walk up to the reporter and say, no means no, typical Redskins bullshit. Like these being interviewed on the field by the ESPN de Porte's guy and Tony comes up and screams no means no. He yanked Dustin Hopkins away from a

reporter after he missed the field goal in London. You know, there we are. You know, American football in London. Redskins are playing a game against the Bengals and a foreign reporter wants to interview one of the players and Wiley comes up and makes a scene. Look, I will grant you and concede this point that anybody working in public relations for the Redskins has a near impossible job. But they haven't helped this situation in recent years. I've knocked their PR department and part of that's been knocking Tony Wiley over the years. they've never really helped in these situations. And again, it's probably an impossible job because you're answering to people that really have no pulse on what the right public relations move is,

and yet they're very adamant that they know exactly what should be done. So you're in a position as the PR guy. You're working for somebody. You can give them advice, but they don't have to follow it. And maybe that's what happened over the years. But, you know, whether it was suing the city paper or putting out press releases, claiming victory, when the U.S. Patent Office decisions came in that impacted the name issue in a positive way.

Like that was a total act like you've been there. Lay low, don't say anything. Let the actual decision speak for itself. But there they are, putting out press releases and quotes from Dan basically with his arms raised in a V. It was just stupid. Nothing was worse than the public humiliation attempt of Scott McLuhan with the quotes that were leaked to the Washington Post about what a drunkard McLuhan was. Even if that were true,

that was about as low road as an organization can get with someone who, you know, wasn't doing very well, more likely than not. And it was so transparent to anybody that was paying attention that it was a concerted effort to make McLuhan look bad and the organization look good and justified in firing him. The whole thing backfired. Somebody, you know, in a PR department, needs to be able to talk Dan and Bruce out of doing something.

something like that. But again, I would certainly assume that that job was never easy for Wiley. But anyway, the fact that there's any reaction to a Brian Lafamina or a Tony Wiley getting fired is totally a result of the constant ongoing drama at Redskins Park. And the fact that this organization is abnormal in almost every way. In a normal organization, fans don't know the names of the non-football people. PR people, sales people, the chief financial officer, the chief operating officer, they don't know those people. They know the owner. They know the GM. They know the coaches, the players. And in some cases, they know, you know, some other key football people, a key scout or the assistant GM or whatever. I've mentioned this before, but did anybody have any idea who

the VP of sales or the head of PR was when Jack Kent Cook was the owner of this team and they were winning? These are insignificant names to fan bases and most cases. In the case of Lafamina, we knew his name because the organization made such a big deal out of the hire. Snyder's saying that it was fresh thinking and Brian's big ideas were going to be implemented and he was thrilled. He had one of the most highly regarded NFL executives in league circles. I mean, they built him up and they built him up because they wanted the fan base, their customer base to think that Brian Lafamina was essentially going to become the face of the organization instead of Bruce Allen, who was, you know, a face and a voice nobody wanted to hear from anymore.

And there Brian was last summer, you know, making the rounds and the preseason games on television, talking about the fan-friendly enhancements at the stadium and how the organization was going to be more transparent and more accessible. And I mentioned this this morning on the radio show, my God, did the other station, uh, so, it up, man. They thought Lafamina was Jesus Christ, that he was the Savior. And they built him up into be seriously the guy that was going to turn around in the organization. Gobbled that up, hook line and sinker. Tommy didn't. I shouldn't say everybody at that station. Tommy didn't. Tommy on this podcast, after Lafamina, remember when Lafamina admitted that there was no more season ticket

waiting list? And I was like, oh my God, that's an admission that probably doesn't make Dan and Bruce very happy. I can't believe they signed off on this. And Tommy came in on the podcast and said, I hope that guy's renting, because there's no way he lasts a full year. And he was right, of course. But I get it. Everybody was hoping Lafamina was here to replace Bruce Allen, which was never really his job. He was just going to run the business operation. And it was huge news when he got fired because Dan and Bruce had built him up. So so big and it appeared as if Bruce had pulled off a power play to get rid of him. And that's probably what did happen, although I don't think Dan liked him very much at the end either. But the takeaway

from the Tony Wiley news is that 95% of NFL organizations could have fired their lead PR guy yesterday and their fans on local media would have barely noticed. Not in this town. You know, not in this town. I would, I recommended when they fired Lafamina not to tell us who replaced him, and I'd recommend the same thing with Wiley. Don't make a big deal out of the people that have nothing to do with the football operation because you're just setting yourself up for a future news story because nobody lasts in that organization. Wiley lasting 10 years is a record.

Anyway, that's enough of that. I also wanted to mention one other thing, and I did this on the radio show this morning. Landon Collins was interviewed by a New Jersey, NJ.com, New Jersey.com, two days ago, and asked about his thoughts about Peyton Manning being benched and Daniel Jones getting his first start as a rookie. And Landon Collins couldn't help himself again, did the thing that he's been doing, which is running his mouth about his old team. He said, you know, essentially called Gettleman a liar. He said he lied to everybody. That's a man I do not trust.

I would hope nobody else would too. And I tweeted out, I'm like, why can't the new guy shut up about the old team that he played for? They're 0 and 2. They've got the worst defense in the league pretty much. It's enough already. They're playing the Bears. They're not playing the Giants. Some of you said, Wolfie's ass, what is he supposed to say?

He's supposed to say, I'm not commenting on that. We're focused on the Bears. We've got the Bears coming in on Monday night. We haven't won a game yet. That's what he should say. I mean, my God, since he got here, he has been so distraught over his ex-girlfriend. He can't stop talking about the Giants and Gettleman.

It's unbelievable to me how hurt he is, that they didn't want him. And how much he hates Gettleman. He said, what was it, three or four weeks ago, that he's going to run him over when he sees him on the field in the Meadowlands. He's talked about the eight games that'll get to play against his former team to hell with those eight games. I mean, you're 0 and 2. You've got the bears coming up. To me, this is reflective of a no discipline, no accountability. organization and with little discipline and even less need to be accountable, the chance to win is diminished. This bothers me. It bothers a lot of you. Some of you think I overdo it on this.

That's fine. You're entitled to your opinion. I've never seen an organization produce so little but talk so much over the years. Never. The Redskins are kings, as I've said, of over-promising and under-delivered. It's just been one thing after another over the years. And so many times it's the new guy that comes in. And he's talking about things. If I were the owner after just in recent weeks, right, Rob Ryan, we've got a top five talented defense. Josh Norman, we're going to be an all-time great defense. Landon Collins can't get his ex-girlfriend off of his lips.

Sorry about that. That was pretty, think of that in any way you want. talking about words spoken about the former girlfriend. I would personally handle it this way if this were my team. If I were the owner of this team, and clearly this has not been done, I would gather the team in their big auditorium out there in Ashburn. They've got a huge auditorium. It's where they hold the big press conferences. I'd put up on a big screen all of the examples in the past year of interview no-noes. You know, you don't tell people that you're playing that your defense is going to be an all-time great defense. You don't, you know,

obsess over your former team and criticize the general manager of the other team because he didn't want you. You don't say publicly that it's a slap in the face that your running back, your Hall of Fame running back was deactivated and you're going to handle that. You're going to go directly to the coach to talk to him about it. You don't like in recent years, you know, say, as Ryan Clark did, this is the best secondary I've ever been on. in August when you were playing on a secondary that didn't include Troy Palomalo. That was laughable. Trent Williams dubbed them Hogs 2.0 and said that they would have a top three rushing offense one year. Rex Grossman predicted in NFCE's title, the list goes on and on and on.

I could do this for an hour. They've been the kings of over-promising and under-delivering. And if I were the owner, I'd get everybody in the auditorium. I'd put all of these examples up on the screen. and I would say very clearly, if I read or hear one more thing from any player, coach, or anyone in the organization that says anything negative about any of our upcoming opponents or over promises anything about our team, they will be deactivated from the next game

and find significantly if they're a player. If there's someone else in the organization, they will be fined significantly. This is policy moving forward, and it'll be enforced. Our team is 0 and 2. As a franchise, we've basically been the last place team more times than not in the division over the last 20 years. We've won one playoff game in the last 14 years, two in the last 20 years.

The results of our organization disqualifies us, all of us, from running our mouths. Period. This is policy. if you ignore it, you'll be punished. If you ignore it more than once, you're gone. Our fans, our customers deserve better than all of this talk with no action. It's time that it changes. Any questions.

But clearly, that's never been done. This isn't an organization that has that kind of discipline, that kind of accountability, that kind of self-awareness. they lack so much in self-awareness. I've said this before. They still believe that their fan base is right there, ready to jump back in because they just feel that the team's been unlucky. They feel that they're close to something.

And in the NFL, you're always close to something. You could hit that inside straight this year. And win three out of the next four, be three and three and start facing a bunch of teams that were injured. And Dwayne Haskins comes in for Case Keene. who's struggling and starts to light it up and then the future looks bright. That can happen. It's a poorly run organization by an owner that doesn't hold anybody accountable, with an owner and a team president that doesn't at all make discipline a big issue in the organization

with a head coach who's go along to get along. A head coach that had a player on his team last year, DJ Swaranger, publicly criticized teammates, coaches in the organization, seven times, told six times to stop it. You can't do that anymore, DJ. Then he does it again. You can't do that, DJ. You can't criticize your teammates and your coaches.

Then he does it for a third time, a fourth time, a fifth time, and a sixth time. And then finally the seventh time they had had enough. It took seven public criticisms before they cut him. And a lot of you didn't want him to be cut. But you've got to at some point. You've got to hold somebody accountable. You've got to punish somebody who doesn't follow direction. It's not what the organization does well.

I know this doesn't bother some of you. I know it bothers most of you. I see and read the reaction. We took calls this morning. I know most of you understand that this is important, that this is an important part of the organization. It speaks to something that. that contributes to their consistent losing and underachieving.

All right. I wanted to mention one other thing real quickly about the Redskins and the Bears because I think there is a prevailing thought about both of these teams entering the game on Monday night that's misleading. And the thoughts are these two. Number one, that the Redskins defense is horrible. It is statistically. It's a terrible defense through two games.

but perhaps that's leading Chicago to be very optimistic about Monday night as a team they can face in the Redskins defense to really get their offense jump started. And then I think the flip side of that is that there's this narrative out there through the first two weeks of the season that Chicago's offense is truly horrible. I don't think either one of those two things is true. I think the Redskins defense is talented. I would love John Allen to be back. I don't know if you saw that news yesterday. John Allen's injury, according to Jay Gruden, was more significant than maybe we thought. He didn't practice yesterday. There's hope that'll play Monday night.

I would lean against it. I think Quentin Dunbar is in trouble of missing Monday night as well. That's not going to help the defense. It would be great to get John Allen back, though. It really would. But I think the defense is going to get better. I don't think it's what we've seen in the first two games. I think they've played two very good opponents with two exceptional offensive lines.

And I think the bear offense played two exceptional defensive teams. Green Bay, they added all that free agent help in the offseason to improve their defense. And Denver last week. I don't think their offense is that bad. You know, the Bears last year were top 10 in scoring. They averaged over 26 a game. They were top 10 rushing offense. They were 11th and third down offense.

They were 11th in points per drive. They were number six in the league last year in red zone offense. Trubisky through 24 touchdowns through 11 picks. He wasn't great, but he was far from terrible. They've got some talent on offense. Tar Cohen can really be a game breaker. Cordell Patterson, the same. Alan Robinson.

You know, they've got David Montgomery, the rookie from Iowa State in their backfield. He's got a chance to be a really good player. I think that this prevailing thought that the Bears' offense is not very good. You better be careful about that as a Redskin fan to think that the defense can just shut it down easily. And I think the bears are probably looking at the skins defense thinking, wow, they suck. But I don't think it does, and I don't think it will for much longer. I hope not anyway.

It's got too much talent. I will say this, that if the defense gets torched again on Monday night, there are going to be changes next week. I cannot imagine that Minusky could survive giving up 30. plus and allowing, you know, 64% third down conversions against the bears. I don't think he survives that. Now, the only thing going in his favor, it's a short week next week because it's a Monday night game. So maybe it would happen the following week. I doubt he survives a bad effort again defensively. I think the Redskins are in must-win situation Monday night. This is a urgent, desperate code red type of game. If they fall to 0 and 3, I do think that it's a house of cards out there,

that things are going on behind the scenes, that if they don't have some success here real quickly, it's going to get ugly. And it's going to snowball. And this could be a season, and I suggested this was a possibility that could completely crumble into a 2 and 14 type of year. I like their chances Monday night though I do you'll find out here shortly if they're in the smell test let me give you some quick information about my bookie dot AG right many of you have asked me over the years how do I place a bet I don't have access to a bookie I don't have access to going to Vegas and betting legally in a sports book um my bookie dot AG is the answer they nobody gives you more ways to win than they do they've got the fastest payouts the best lines and don't forget

forget where you're betting is just as important as who you're betting on. And mybooky.orgie. orgie is the best in the business. It's where a lot of people I know play, you should too. I wouldn't be telling you guys to bet with them if they weren't the best and if they weren't trustworthy. They offer every kind of bet you want. Straight bets. Teasers, parlays, halftime action, in-game action, prop bets. Everything you want is all there. Their VIGs, their fees, are priced well, they give you good numbers on these games. I'm telling you right now my bookie.ag is a place to go to wager if you don't have a place currently. Now, when you go there, use my promo code Kevin DC to activate the following offer.

If you join now, mybooky.orgie.ag will double your first deposit. That's promo code Kevin DC, K-E-V-I-N-D-C. Go to mybooky.agy today. You play, you win, you get paid. All right, going to get to the smell test here momentarily. The game last night was interesting from this perspective. First of all, Gardner Minchew the second, had another really good game. You know, he replaced Nick Foles in the opener. He's thrown now five touchdowns of one pick in essentially two and a half games. He was 20 for 30 last night for 204 yards. And he can play. You know, Cooley loved Minchew. when we were doing all of the draft stuff in April.

He was one of the quarterbacks that he suggested the Redskins think about in the middle portion of the draft if they hadn't drafted a quarterback already. He's not a big guy, but he can play. And one of the things that Mike Leach had said about him is he's got great feel in the pocket. And he does. He's got Drew Breeze-like feel in the pocket. I'm not suggesting he's the next Drew Breeze. But Jacksonville is one of those teams that I said before.

the season, I predicted them to make a a playoff run, that they were one of the non-playoff teams from the year before that I thought had a chance to get to the playoffs. And it's mostly because their defense, and their defense is nasty. They had nine sacks last night. Callais Campbell had three of them. Josh Allen,

the rookie, who they drafted from Kentucky, had two of them last night. All right? They still have, you know, guys like Marcel Darius and Miles Jack, who's a monster, and then Gokwe out of Maryland. I don't know why, I don't know why, Jalen Ramsey would want to leave this defense? I really don't because it is, when healthy, a very good

defense Jacksonville's is. And they've got a chance with a Minshue playing well and DJ Chark and, you know, Fournette. They've got a chance, I think Jacksonville does to have a decent season. They went for two last week at Houston to try to win the game rather than kicking to force overtime. You know, they lost the opener to the Chiefs, you know, in a game in which Foles got hurt. I think Jacksonville's a decent team. They play my Broncos next week. So they got the Broncos next week. That will be sort of an early season elimination game.

No, I'm exaggerating there. But he's impressive. Their defense is impressive. And I just don't know why Jalen Ramsey would want to leave that team. But I also don't know why Jacksonville would play him last night if they're trying to trade him. That's pretty risky. All right. One more thing before we get to the smell test.

and that is this Antonio Brown story, which has come about late last night. Robert Clemco, who wrote the story in Sports Illustrated, which I suggested all of you read. It's a story about this second accuser, this woman, this artist who was asked and contracted by Brown to paint a mural of him in his house, and then the alleged sexual misconduct with him while she was painting in his house. That's part of the story, but there's a lot more to the Clemcoe story in Sports Illustrated. earlier this week. It really paints the picture of a bad guy, you know, a troubled guy, as we all know, but a bad guy. But anyway, late last night, Clemco begins to post text messages that Antonio Brown has sent to this woman, this artist, who was a big part of Clemco's story. So Antonio

Brown starts to text her in a, you know, in what many would certainly deem to be an intimidating, threatening way. How stupid of him is it to send her these text messages and not think that they're not going to get out? He's just such an idiot. But if you read through the texts, you know, it's a subjective thing as to how intimidating, how threatening you believe they actually are. Brown encourages others in the group text. He's got four other numbers on this text chain with this woman, these series of texts. that he sends this woman. And these are four numbers that apparently she's not familiar with.

And he's encouraging those other people on the text chain to investigate her, describing her as a super broke girl, meaning that she's coming after his money, that she wants money, asking someone he refers to as Eric B to look up her background history. Then he sends a screenshot of an Instagram photo she had posted, showing the faces of her young children. And he writes, those her kids,

she's awful broke clearly. So these are not nice tweets. They are and could be construed, certainly with four other numbers on it, and the push for people to investigate her, look up her background history, and then showing faces of her young children, these certainly could be deemed to be intimidating and threatening.

Clemco believes that they are, A lot of people believe they are. Now we'll find out if the league believes that they are. Because if they deem these text messages to this woman to be intimidating and threatening, then it more likely than not would be a violation of the NFL personal conduct policy. So we'll see what the NFL comes up with here. My guess is if I had to wager, this is going to be the first nail in his coffin. He's not going to play Sunday when the Patriots play the Jets.

They certainly don't need him against the... Jet Team. They're 22 and a half point favorites. A lot of you thought they would work out in New England. By the way, he had his first press conference yesterday and was, you know, perfect. Didn't say anything. Made the required couple of minutes of answering questions. Didn't say anything

controversial. And then he went home and started sending her these text messages. A lot of you thought it would work out. It's Belichick. It's the Patriots. Brady's on board with this thing. This guy's a different different cat. He is so troubled. He is truly an idiot. And he's got major issues and he's a bad guy. I mean, read all of the stuff. We know what happened over the summer. You know, we know the complete, bizarre behavior that he was involved with. The chances he makes it a full season with the Patriots, Aaron, it's less than 50-50. And now it's probably much less than 50-50.

All right, let's get to the smell test. Kevin looks where the John Q public is putting their cash and does the opposite. It's time for the smell test. All right, the smell test, for those of you who are new to it, is just a contrarian handicapping philosophy. You know, if most people are betting on one team, you take the opposite side. You know, when everybody loves a stock, you short it. When everybody is selling a stock, you start buying up as much of it as you can.

It's a contrarian view, which I basically. have about everything in my life pretty much. That's the smell test. You know, last week there were a couple of really good examples of the smell test that I want to describe for you because I think it'll help some of those, some of you who each week say, I still don't get it. Like, there are people I work with at the radio station that still don't get it. But Mack Brown had started off at North Carolina, 2 and O.

They had beaten South Carolina in Miami, and they went to Wake Forest last night, and they were an underdog to Wake Forest, a three-point underdog. And literally, I had a friend text me last week and said, and by the way, this is a friend of mine that bets a lot and loses. And he said, explain to me how North Carolina is a three-point underdog against Wake Forest when they're two and oh. Everybody's excited about Mack Brown. They beat two decent teams in South Carolina and Miami.

And I just said to him because they're going to lose the game by more than three. That's why. and they did. You know, everybody was on Carolina. I gave out Wake Forest. I bet Wake Forest personally. And that's what it is. It doesn't always work.

If it did, I wouldn't be telling you about it. But over the last 13 years of doing the smell test on radio or on a podcast, I've won 10 of those 13 years. I've had a winning record. In the three years that I haven't, it's just barely missed getting over 50%. Last week was a perfect, 9-0 week. Aaron, I've had undefeated weeks before. I don't think I've ever had a 9-0 week before.

And I think I told you this, and maybe I mentioned this on the Monday podcast. Personally, I went 15 one-in-one on all of my bets in wagers last weekend. That's one of the best weekends I have ever had. Yes, my guy was forced to pay me this week, which was very nice. 9-0, pretty damn good. Can't really beat 9-0, can you? So I'm 15 and 7 on the year. Actually, 16 and 7 because of Tulane last night coming in, and I gave them out yesterday. So 16 and 7 overall in the year, hitting it nearly 70%. What are the chances, Aaron, you think I'll end up at 70%. Not great.

No. The chances I'll end up at 70% are about 5%, I would put it at. By the way, if you were listening to this podcast last week when Stanford Steve, Scott's sidekick on his sports center came on, Steve's one of my favorite people on the planet. The two of us combined in our picks on the show last week, 15, 0, and 1 is what we gave out. Ask anybody who bets on sports, Aaron does. That's impossible to do. Basically.

Yeah. Let's get to the weekend board, which actually I like, which should be a reason to run from these picks as fast as you can. Trust me, when you're on a heater like this one that I'm on right now, it will turn the other way. I just hope it doesn't turn this weekend. All right. Let's start with tonight.

Utah is ranked 11th in the country. Some people believe that Utah will win the PAC 12 and be a playoff team. Some people do believe that. Their defense is really elite. Southern Cal is coming off a loss last week at BYU. They could have won that game. They're starting that freshman quarterback because J.T. Daniels got hurt a few weeks ago. He's out for the year.

Utah's just a three and a half point favorite in L.A. heavy, heavy public action on Utah, I'll take USC plus the three and a half. Let's go to the early 12 noon window tomorrow because there are two big 10 teams out of the state of Michigan that I like a lot. The public loves Northwestern against Michigan State getting nine. Let me just mention the thing about the two games that I'm going to mention now. Michigan State plus three and a half, Michigan State minus nine. There are two stories about this game that have done.

gotten way too much ink. And I think they've been put out there with the intention of steering the public in the wrong direction. Aaron, one of them is that Pat Fitzgerald and Northwestern is 13, 4, and 1 in their last 18 games as an underdog. That's one of those pieces of information that, you know, if you're betting, you can come across, you may have to work hard to get. That information has been circling since early in the week. And the average better is eating it up. Michigan State's a nine-point favorite. That's a lot for a team, by the way,

that scored just seven points last week against Arizona State. Public's playing Northwestern. I'll take Michigan State, lay the nine. By the way, Sparty has a great defense. One of the best defenses in the country. I think they win the game something like 24 to 7, 24 to 10. I think they win it in cover.

So the Michigan game has a similar narrative that's been put out there, a similar set of facts that's created this narrative out there. The fact is this, that Jim Harbaugh is 0 and 6 at Michigan as an underdog, has not won one game as an underdog, and he's two and four against the number as an underdog. The public is eating this information. That's been a big story this week. Jim Harbaugh can't beat a team when he's an underdog. So what's the public doing? They're taking Wisconsin and they're laying the three and a half. I'll take Michigan plus the three and a half.

I think they get a win tomorrow or certainly get a cover. Maybe Wisconsin's got a walk off field goal to win by three. Let's get to the 330 window. Everybody knows Florida State isn't Florida State anymore. Willie Taggart's in huge trouble in Tallahasse. He's one and two. they could be 0 and 3. And yet they're favored tomorrow by six and a half at home against Louisville.

Nobody's backing Florida State in this one. That's why I will. Florida State minus the six and a half. Played against North Carolina last week, I'm going to play against North Carolina again this week. Appalachian State. So App State, you know, played Penn State really close last year. They're only getting two and a half in this game against Carolina.

By the way, that two and a half reeks, because if it were three and a half, I'd think differently, but not that much differently. It's like what they're saying is all North Carolina has to do is win by a field goal. I'll take Appalachian State plus the two and a half. Missouri's laying a huge number to South Carolina. Nine. South Carolina was a smell test selection last week, and they got the backdoor lake cover against Bama. But here, and Scott mentioned this yesterday on the radio show,

here's the deal with teams after they play Alabama or LSU. They are beat up. They're physically spent, and the following week usually doesn't work out very well. They need two weeks off, and South Carolina didn't get them. That's why Missouri's a nine-point favorite, and that's why they are going to roll tomorrow and beat South Carolina by a lot. By the way, I had Missouri a few weeks ago against West Virginia laying a big number, and they rolled to an easy win.

I like West Virginia this week, and I feel badly because I told Mountaineer fans that it was going to be a long season, and then last week I actually liked West Virginia, almost gave him out as a smell test pick I wished I had. They rolled to a 44-27 win over NC State, and all of a sudden, maybe they're a little bit better than we thought. Meantime, they're playing Kansas in Lawrence. Les Miles is the coach in Kansas. They went to Chestnut Hill last week and beat the living hell out of Boston College.

So there's a lot of optimism in Lawrence about Les Miles and Kansas. West Virginia's laying four and a half. The public's on the Jayhawks. Give me the Mountaineers minus. Actually, the five and a half. That number is now five and a half on Covers.com, which is where we use the lines for the smell test on the Friday Covers.com lines. I really like Oregon this year. I think Stanford stinks. I'm going to take Stanford plus the 10 and a half against the ducks. That number is too low. Oregon's really good. Stanford got crushed last week by UCF. I think Stanford always seems to figure out Oregon when they play them. I'll take the Cardinal plus 10 and a half.

This next one, don't ask any questions. Just trust me, take Texas State laying the three. It's the first time they've ever been favored against an FBS team, and they are playing Georgia State. Take them laying the three. Oklahoma State's always good as an underdog. They're playing Texas tomorrow, the number six and a half, Buy it to seven, by the way, just like I should have told you to buy Appalachian State to three from two and a half.

Take Oklahoma State plus the six and a half. Buy it to seven. A ton of sharp money on Oak State for tomorrow's game. And then one more college game. If all else fails, you've got a late night game. Take Utah State late laying the four at undefeated San Diego State. I like them. Utah State minus four. Again, another team with some sharp money on it.

I almost gave out Pitt versus UCF. I bet you like them, don't you? I'm actually looking at Western Michigan against Syracuse. I thought about that one too. Yeah, they're getting a short number against Syracuse. Pitt's a lien against UCF. Western Michigan's a lean too against Syracuse, but not an official play. All right, three NFL picks.

Denver's a team, if you've been listening, you know I like. They should be one-in-one. They were robbed last week by an outrageously bad call and a roughing-the-passer call. By the way, did you see Tom Brady? these tweets during the game last night. Brady's sick of the penalties, saying that they shouldn't be penalties. One of them came, one of those tweets came after a very questionable

roughing the passer call. Between roughing the passer and holdings up, what, 64%. 66%? He's right. And these roughing the passers, I mean, good God. They got to fix this. It is insufferable and painful to watch. Quarterbacks get tackled normally or get hit

just as the balls, you know, released. And here comes, you know, the flags. I like Denver. They should be one in one. They got robbed last week. I like Denver because I think they've got a really good defense, and I think they're going to be playing this week. You know, a game in which I think the public is convinced the Packers are back.

I think they're into the Packers right now after their 2-0 start. Denver's getting seven and a half. The public's on Green Bay, give me the Broncos plus the seven and a half. The biggest public play of the weekend is Seattle laying four and a half Sunday against the Saints without Drew Breeze. I'll take the Saints and Teddy Bridgewater and take the four and a half points at Seattle. And then Sunday night, it's Cleveland short week, I hate that, but they're getting three Sunday night against the Rams. Very interested in this game to watch it to see what the Brown's defense looks like against the Rams offense. Because I think the Brown's defense is extremely talented.

I think Garrett's a monster and could be the MVP defensively this year. But, you know, they had that result in the opener against Tennessee where they gave up 43 points. There were some turnovers in that game that helped out, obviously. And that's one of the reasons that week one is always overrated and we always overreact to it. I think Cleveland's really good defensively. I think they figure out a way to cover and more likely than not win outright Sunday night against the Rams. I'm not giving the Redskins out as an official pick on Monday night plus the four against Chicago. I will give a lean towards the Redskins.

But there's been sharp money on the Bears in the last 24 hours. And I'm concerned about this game in that I think there's a lot going on out there. And this is desperation time, urgency time. If things don't go well early in this game, and they have the last two weeks, The first two weeks of the season, things have gone well early. But if they don't, I think this could really begin a process of the season ending very quickly at O'N3. Again, I'm going to play the Redskins Plus 4 based on sort of a contrarian feel. I'm not giving it out because there is sharp money in Chicago, but the public money is on the Bears as well.

So I lean Redskins Plus 4. I'm hesitant to give it out, though, as a smell test pick for a lot. lot of reasons. All right, recapping the smell test. I think there are when all of a sudden done 14 picks, if you include Tulane from last night, USC tonight plus three and a half, Michigan State minus nine, Michigan plus three and a half, Florida State minus six and a half, App State plus two and a half, Missouri minus nine, West Virginia minus five and a half, Stanford plus 10 and a half, Texas State, Lang 3, Oak State plus 6.5, Utah State, minus 4. I don't think I forgot one. And then Sunday, Denver plus 7 and a half, Saints plus 4 and a half, and the Browns plus 3.

I think that should be 14 total. 10 on Saturday, 3 on Sunday, and then the two-lane play. We'll look that. We'll go back and make sure we got that right, but that should be it. One last thing, and that is just to go through a couple of the things that I'm interested in watching on Sunday in particular. The best game of the weekend is Baltimore, Kansas City. That is a really interesting game. I am not subscribing yet to the theory that it is the first, or it would be the second, actually, because they played last year. Some people are calling it the new Peyton Manning versus Tom Brady, you know, Lamar Jackson versus Patrick Mahomes. I think Lamar Jackson is a very intriguing player.

And the way that John Harbon Company used him last year to make that run with a great defense to get into the postseason was really cool to watch. He's been very good so far in two games this year. They have also played Miami, who's given up, and Arizona. He is a different player than Peyton or Brady or Mahomes. Mahomes, to me, definitely is a guy that's got a chance to be a great. He's already gotten off to an incredible start. It is an explosive offense. He makes every single throw.

He makes every single throw with anticipation. Jackson's different. Jackson is a run threat. He's a dual threat quarterback, but he's proven that he can throw it too. He doesn't throw with great anticipation, though. He is definitely a guy that's got to wait to see it come open before he throws it. but he's also a guy that can wait for guys to come open because he's able to create so much extra time. It's a great matchup on Sunday. If you forced me to play the game, I think I would

play Baltimore plus the five and a half if you force me to play it. A couple of other games from Sunday. I'm really interested in seeing the Lions at Philadelphia. I think Detroit's underrated. Somebody mentioned a few weeks ago, I love Detroit teams. It's actually not Detroit teams. I've just been a fan of Matt Stafford and the Lions in recent years, and they underperformed last year. They had a lot of injuries. They've got some talent. Gala Day looks like a star. I like Matt Stafford.

I've always liked Matt Stafford. That's an interesting game. They're getting less than a touchdown at Philadelphia. I actually like their chances, Detroit's chances, to win the game outright. I also think there are a couple of other teams that are interesting to watch. First of all, San Francisco is 2-0. They've beaten Tampa and Cincinnati. They get Pittsburgh without Ben Rothlessberger.

So it's Mason Rudolph, who if you talk to Steelers fans really believe in Mason Rudolph. I can't imagine they believe in him as much as they believe in Big Ben. But the 49ers are laying six and a half out in Santa Clara against the Steelers. I'd lean Steelers personally in that game. Again, none of these are smell test picks except for the ones that I gave out. I don't believe in the Niners. I don't believe in the Niners. I think that they are still maybe a year away.

They still need a little bit more on both sides of the ball. We'll see, though, they can get to 3-0, and they're catching the schedule perfectly, right? They open up with Tampa. Tampa turns it over a bunch of times. Last week, they get a bad team in Cincinnati. This week, they get Pittsburgh without Rathlisberger. Well, after that, it's Browns and Rams the next two weeks for the 49ers.

So chance to get the 3-0. I am interested in seeing what they've got. The best games of the weekend, Notre Dame Georgia on Saturday night is a great game. Georgia's laying 14 and a half. That's a lot of points. Notre Dame can really score. Book is a good quarterback. Georgia, though, is certainly in that group with Bama and LSU and Clemson and maybe

Oklahoma and Ohio State. This is a huge playoff implication game Saturday night in Athens. it's the toughest ticket of the weekend in any football game at the professional level or college level. I would lean Notre Dame plus the 14 and a half. This is a huge game. If Notre Dame wins this game, they are now a legitimate playoff possibility. And George is expected to win this game, but to keep them in that playoff mode, they have to have it. Big game, and that'll follow a couple of big afternoon games.

certainly the early game between Michigan and Wisconsin would be very much in my mind's eye in the elimination game for the playoff. You know, Michigan, Wisconsin has a chance to be in the Big Ten title game, even if they lose to Michigan. Michigan, you know, is, there's a lot of pressure on Harbaugh, I think, you know, in Ann Arbor.

The team that loses this, more likely than not, is not going to be in the playoff as a one-loss team. More likely than not. teams on upset alert. I mentioned Utah tonight. I believe that. I think Green Bay on Sunday. I think Denver can go into Lambo and win. I certainly like them plus the seven and a half. And lastly, a few players to keep an eye on Sunday. How about Mason Rudolph, just in general? The possibility that Rudolph is a guy that can keep Pittsburgh relevant, keep them in the hunt. They're 0-2. They need this win. They've got a good team.

around him. And then Daniel Jones gets his first start in Tampa. By the way, I don't know if I'd lean either way in that game. The number is six and a half. I don't like the game that much either way, but I am interested to see Daniel Jones play. I am.

All right. What else am I missing? The Nats have a huge series this weekend against the Marlins. They're a game up on Milwaukee. Milwaukee continues to win they won yesterday. The Cubs lost to the Cardinals, so they're two back. of the Nats. But this weekend series against a bad Miami team, it's almost like you feel

like they got to win all three because they finish with five against the Phillies and three against the Indians next week. All at home. All at home. But this is one of those where somehow they lost two of three. You know, it's possible that on Monday morning, they could be on the outside looking in. Yeah. Could be. So anyway, big series for them. Sanchez tonight, Strasbourg Saturday. And then is it Voth on Sunday? It is, yes, Voth is on Sunday against a day

to be determined pitcher. All right, so there you go. They got to get three of these. I think I didn't leave anything else. I think that's it. Yep. Hey, congratulations to the Mystics. They're up to two nothing in that WNBA

semi-final series. And congratulations to Deladon, Elena Deladon, who's the MVP of the WN. She plays for the mystics, for those of you that didn't know. And she's very good. 50-40-90 season. Did she really?

Yeah. Oh, I didn't realize that. That's a hell of a season. Yeah. All right, 50% from the field, 40% from behind the ark, and 90% from the free throw line is a 50-40-90 season. Hard to do. Really hard to do.

All right. Enjoy the football weekend. I'll be back Monday. We will recap the football weekend. Certainly get you ready for Skins Bears on Monday night. Rate us and review us. If you're on iTunes or Apple Podcasts, subscribe as well. That always helps and tell everybody that we're also available at the Kevin Shian Show.com.