The Kevin Sheehan Show - More Sonny + My 2 SB Prop Bets

Episode Date: February 8, 2026

Kevin opened with the sad news that former Redskins' cornerback Barry Wilburn passed away. Wilburn led the NFL in interceptions during the Skins' 1987 Super Bowl season, was a first-team All-Pro, and had two picks in the Skins' 42-10 Super Bowl 22 win over the Broncos. Kevin also spent more time remembering Sonny Jurgensen while answering several emails/tweets about #9. He had his Seahawks/Patriots Super Bowl 60 final score prediction in the opening segment of the show. He also answered one of the toughest "Super Bowl Trivia" questions he had on radio this week. Ben Fawkes/Yahoo Sports jumped on with plenty of Super Bowl 60 betting information. Kevin finished the show with his two best Super Bowl 60 "Prop Bets". For all your football betting needs: DCRELOAD at MyBookie for a 50% Deposit Match Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Sheehan Show. Here's Kevin. An added weekend podcast, it'll be a quick one. But Friday was one of those days. The news of Sonny's passing was the focus.

And I had a couple of things that I wasn't able to get to on the last show. So we'll do that now. Super Bowl betting talk with Ben Fox, the senior sports betting analyst at Yahoo. who he'll join me in the next segment in just a few minutes. I've got two against the public prop bets for Super Bowl 60. I'll get to those in the final segment of the show and repeat my smell test pick in case you missed it on Friday's show. The show's presenting sponsor is always Windonation, 86690 Nation, windownation.com if you need new windows.

Right now, they're offering four free windows with every four purchased. You don't have to pay anything for two years with no interest charged, and they'll throw in an extra 10% discount for Valentine's Day, which is now less than a week away. So call them for your free in-home estimate at 86690 Nation or windownation.com. More sad Redskins news that we learned of this morning about a player from the past, Barry Wilburn, a starting cornerback on the 1986. Super Bowl champion Redskins died in a house fire in Memphis on Friday. So sad. Barry Wilburn was

drafted in the 85 draft by the skins and then had an unbelievable 1987 season. He led the league in interceptions, had nine of them. He was an AP first team all pro in 1987. He then added to those nine regular season interceptions with three more in the postseason. He had two in the Super Bowl in the win over Elway and the Broncos, but he also had a massive interception in the divisional round game at Soldier Field against the Bears. The skins were clinging to that 21 to 17 lead that Daryl Green's punt return had given them in the third quarter, and Jim McMahon and company were inside Washington's 15-yard line in the fourth quarter, getting ready to take the lead, and Barry Wilburn intercepted Jim McMahon to stop that threat. And that was a game. The skins won,

obviously. They went on to win the NFC title game the next week against Minnesota and then Super Bowl 22. Maybe the most memorable of Barry Wilburn's interceptions actually came in the regular season finale that year in 87. They were playing the Vikings on a Saturday. The game's really famous for Doug Williams replacing Jay Schrader, and then Doug Williams ended up being the starting quarterback in the playoffs. But Jay Schrader was actually the starting quarterback in that season finale against the Vikings, but it was not going well. Early in the game, the Vikings were up seven to nothing, and they were getting ready to score again to go up 14 to nothing, and Barry Wilburn intercepted Wade Wilson at the goal line and returned it

100 yards for a touchdown to tie the score at 7. Washington was on the verge of going down 14-0, and instead it was 7 to 7. And then Doug Williams came into the game, had a great game through two touchdowns in the game, and Washington won 27 to 24 in overtime. That was a big game because they were actually playing for potentially home field advantage that following week against the Bears, because the Bears actually played the next day. Washington's win over Minnesota was a late Saturday afternoon game. The Bears ended up winning the next day and clinching home field against Washington. but the game at the Metrodome against Minnesota on that particular day was big to keep their hopes of potentially hosting a playoff game the following week. And Barry Wilburn kept them in that game early with the 100-yard record setting franchise-wise interception return for a touchdown.

Rest in peace, Barry Wilburn. That is tragic. All right, let's get to some sunny follow-up from my first. Friday's show. I got this from Daniel. Daniel wrote, Kevin, we both lived the same Sonny Jurgensen experience. Thank you so much for remembering him the way that you did. But you missed something. Sunny still holds the record for touchdowns in a season for our team. You never mentioned that, but you mentioned the Eagles record that he still holds. No quarterback, including your guy, cousins, has ever thrown more than Sunny's 31 in 9.

1967. Daniel, 100% right, man. You weren't the only person that wrote me about this, but I appreciate it. I didn't mention that Sunny still holds the single season mark for passing touchdowns with 31. I don't know why I didn't mention that. I think I knew it and certainly should have looked it up, but I'm pretty sure I knew it because, you know, Kirk had a couple of shots at it. He threw for 29 and 25, That's tied for second with Thaisman's 29 in 1983. Rip through for 28 in 1991, Mark Rippin did. And Sonny's 28 in 1966. Those are your top five. Sonny's 31 and then Kirk's and Joe T's 29s. And then Rip had 28 and Sunny had 28. Those are the top five passing touchdowns in a season marks.

But think about that. Sunny's 1967, 31 touchdowns is a record that still holds for a franchise that had a lot of success for a period of time and then not so much. But given the rules and the way they changed and the way they favored the offenses and favored the passing game, it's pretty remarkable. But what I focused on was something I think I hadn't focused on before, which is why it took me by surprise. I started looking at Sunny's Philadelphia years, and I saw that Sunny's 32 touchdowns in 1961,

they actually are not a record, Daniel, and I didn't say they were a record. But it's one short those touchdowns are in a single season of Carson Wentz's mark in 2017. Carson Wentz holds the Eagles record for passing touchdowns in a season, 33 of them in 2017. Remember, that was the season he got hurt. broke his leg, Nick Foles came in, the rest of his history. He missed the final four games, so he would have thrown for a lot more than 33. But Sonny's 32 from 1961, which tied an NFL mark during a season in which he set the NFL mark for passing yards.

Now, it was the first season of 14 games from 12 games, but then Sonny topped that passing yards mark in 67 with the skins. So Sunny in 67, at the end of 67, held the record. and had the second best passing yards seasons in NFL history. But I think when I saw that Sunny's 32 in Philadelphia was still number two on the list, that surprised me, but you're 100% right. I absolutely should have mentioned that he still holds the record with 31 touchdowns in Washington. I got this from Dell.

Dell writes, Sunny isn't the best quarterback in franchise history. honor goes to Sammy Baugh. You should know that, Kevin. His jersey was the only retired jersey for almost a hundred years. Yes, Del. And I probably did say that Sonny was the best quarterback in franchise history. And I do, as Tommy accuses me of, I do sort of live in the world of when Kevin started to remember, which is really kind of post-merger 1970. But really what I focused on more, to be fair, is that Sonny's the most beloved player in franchise history.

But you're right, Del. Sammy Baugh is probably the greatest football player in franchise history. And, you know, right there with Walter Johnson, if we're going to go all the way back, you know, right there is, you know, number one or number two on the all-time great, you know, team

sport players, which Alex Ovechkin would now join. I got this from Tim. Tim writes, Kevin, you're Right, Sonny was the best pure passer of his era, but he was not the best quarterback. Unitas was. I'm a longtime Colts and Ravens fan, and Johnny Unitas is arguably the greatest of all time. Yeah, look, I wasn't comparing Sonny to Unitas or Otto Graham or, you know, any of the greats of that era.

I was simply, in terms of the production, in terms of the level of quarterback. Now, Sonny was a great quarterback. But what Sonny was always at the top of the list of was the list of the best pure passers of the NFL, not just for that era, but really any era. And then I got this from Skins 82BG&E. I don't know what that means, but Skins 82BG&E, his name is Jeffrey because he signed the email Jeffrey. He writes, Sonny Jurgensen tops rigorous. because of the number of years he spent with the Redskins and the many more great seasons he had.

Keep in mind, Rigo never made a Pro Bowl. Crazy, but it's true. And I think what Jeffrey was getting at was, you know, I said that Sonny and Rigo are the two most beloved, you know, Redskins of all time. I think that's true. I mean, you know, after the two of them, Darryl Green Art Monk, you know, are in that conversation. But I think Sonny and Rigo are at the top of that list. And I think for many years after Sunny retired, Sunny would have been the number one. But once Rigo had the postseason and the play that he had in Super Bowl 17, I mean, anybody of a certain age knows how cherished and treasured and adored both of these guys are.

It is crazy that Rigo never made a Pro Bowl. Actually, that's not true. He made a Pro Bowl with the Jets. He never made a Pro Bowl in Washington, although in 83 he was a first team all pro. That was the season he set the mark for the most rushing touchdowns in NFL history. I mean, Sonny and Rigo. And, you know, the chemistry that they had together, you know, on the George Michael show in particular, Redskins report, that show with George and Wilbon and Sonny and Rigo was just, you know, for years must watch.

And, you know, the two most self-deprecating of all of them were Sonny and Rigo. And they really are the two, I think, you know, all-time sports legends of our market. You know, it's hard to pick somebody off of another team because of the dominance that the reds skins have had for so long. And, you know, Rigo had something sunny never got. You know, Rigo had a Super Bowl. Rigo got back to another one. And Rigo had a postseason unlike any other for running back in NFL history. But it was beyond their football exploits that made them so, so popular, as many of you know. I wanted to finish up this opening segment with this. It was something that I do on radio.

I think you guys, some of you who listen to the radio, know that every year we do this Super Bowl trivia thing, Super Bowl trivia weekend. I didn't get a chance to do it on Friday show because of the sunny news, which broke early in my show. But there was a question that I asked from earlier in the week that I can't remember getting as much

follow-up and as many guesses from so many people on. I think I may have asked it twice. I think somebody called and said, I have the answer to that tough question you asked earlier in the week. But I guess what I'm saying here is I'm going to give you the question and I'm going to give you the answer right now. It's a good one. It's a tough one. And many of you, you know, who responded via Twitter or via email got it right. But so many. many of you got it wrong. But the trivia question was this. There are four quarterbacks in Redskins history that played and started games for the skins, but also started in Super Bowls for other teams. That would, by the way, not just be Redskins history, but, you know, football team and

commanders history as well. Four quarterbacks in NFL history played and started games, not necessarily playoff games or Super Bowl games, but played and started games for the Redskins in the regular season and then went on to start a Super Bowl for another team. And those four players, Rich Gannon started games for Washington and then started for the Raiders in a Super Bowl. Donovan McNabb started in a Super Bowl for Philadelphia and then came to Washington in 2010 and started games for Washington in their regular season. Brad Johnson started in 1999, started in 2000 for the Skins, and then started for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Super Bowl they won over Rich Gannon's Raiders.

And then Rex Grossman started in a Super Bowl for the Bears and ended up here in Washington with Mike Shanahan's skins teams and started games in Washington. So for those of you that thought for whatever reason, that was a really good question, a good trivia question, and we're racking your brains and trying to come up with the answer. There's the answer. I'm taking it out of the rotation for future Super Bowl weeks. But the four quarterbacks who played and started games for the skins but also started in Super Bowls for other teams. Rich Gannon, Donovan McNabb, Brad Johnson, and Rex Grossman. If I didn't mention this on Friday show, I like New England to win the Super Bowl,

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DC reload. All right. Joining me right now is Yahoo Sports Senior sports betting analyst, Ben Fox. We've had Ben on the show before. I read Ben all of the time. I would urge you to follow him on X at B Fox 22, B-F-A-W-K-E-S-22. Ben really covers sports betting very well and also understands kind of the significance of contrarian handicapping, which is what I partake in a lot, which is trying to find where, you know, the sports books needs are, where the public's lined up on one side and what the needs for sports books

are going to be. So let's just start right there. Is there a big advantage on the side, on the number right now, which is, you know, four and a half, five, depending on where you play it right now? Is there a public betting favorite in this game? Yeah, first of all, thanks for having me. And I'm fresh off a red-eyed back from San Francisco. So I was out there for the week. now back home and basically every odds maker I talked to from previous and then today it's kind of been the same story which is just people betting on the Seahawks. Now we're not in a situation where it's you know 75% 80% of the bets and money. It's more in the kind of 55 to 65% of both tickets and handle obviously bearing a little bit by the sports book but it's pretty much

been Seahawks minus four and a half at most books for example. For example, for example, obviously the good portion of this week and then some of last week as well. There have been a couple five that have been out there. Some of them have been knocked back down to four and a half. But I think if the line is going to move, it probably would move up, you know, Seahawks minus five minus five and a half. But it's been Seahawks minus four and a half for so long. We haven't seen the total come down a bit, opened at 46.5 at some books down to 45 and a half, even touch 45 as well as a couple. that's been more, I think, the sharp action was on that early under pushing that number down.

Obviously, the actual spread opened, I think, Seahawks 3 and a half at some books that got pushed up. Seahawks minus 5 at that MGM and some other books, which eventually got pushed down. So we've kind of hammered into about where it's been for several days, which is Seahawks minus four and a half and a total of 45 and a half on the game. Yeah, I'm seeing some fours out there right now, as we're. recording here early afternoon on Friday. But, you know, the total, and you and I have talked about this before, the public loves in these standalone games, typically Monday nights, Thursday nights, you know, the playoff games, it's just a lot easier to cheer for and root for points and overs because it's hard to root for, you know, three-yard gains in the clock to run,

you know, over a three-hour period, hoping the game is over in like two and a half hours and it stays under the total. I thought with this particular game, there was going to be a lot of public action on the under because there's just this general feeling that this is going to be a very low-scoring game with two excellent defensive teams. I was actually surprised at 45, 45 and a half. and that has me thinking over as a contrarian. Are you seeing much of a public split? What is your overall thought on the 45 and a half, which is pretty much where it is everywhere right now?

Yeah, I think what's interesting is that you have, so the Super Bowl, obviously, is kind of a one-off, right? You have this neutral field. There isn't really a home field advantage for either team. the fans aren't necessarily 100% or, you know, more what they would be. Let's say, obviously the Seahawks had a great home to the advanced in the NFC championship game, you know, and the Patriots were on the road. But you have kind of a different environment, which plays in a little bit. You're not going to have any weather, which obviously the Patriots have had weather on their roads to the Super Bowl.

And you also have this new kickoff rule, which I think has changed, you know, the calculations a bit this year as well. where all of a sudden, you know, ball goes out of bounds. You're at the 40-yard line, you're a couple of such with how good kickers have been. You're a couple first downs away from basically being in field goal range. So I think it kind of comes down to how strong you think these defenses and how overpowering they will be. Obviously, the coaches kind of with two weeks to prepare,

usually those first 15 scripted plays you would expect kind of success on both sides, potentially, but that could lead to two field goals. could lead to two touchdowns. Both defenses are really good. They're both very good against the run, especially. I kind of agree with you in leaning over, just because I think that they will be able to get enough points to get there, get enough possessions.

Mike Brable is very good about managing the clock and fourth downs and all that. It just seems like a lot of, you would think, right, with those two defenses, it can go under, isn't, to your point, that high of a total. Now, both teams also play a fairly slow pace, so that's, or typically have, that's one thing to see. And then ultimately, you know,

it's going to come down to can those defenses get the other one off the field? And ultimately, the Seahawks defense, you basically keep looking at all the advanced metrics, you know, they're number one against quick throws, the number one against the run, top five against the past. You know, they get a top 10 pressure rate, but not blitzing very much.

And when they do blitz, they get home very often. So they're a really good defense, but ultimately, I think everyone is still waiting. Like Sam Donald was amazing in the NFC championship game, but there isn't necessarily that 100% belief. They're kind of waiting for the other shoot at drop. And if it doesn't, I think the Seahawks win this game. That's who I've been picking and picked on our shows at Yahoo. But it is still that Sam Donald, we're still kind of waiting.

We're not 100% sure. you know, and I think this game is a great opportunity, obviously, for him to kind of silence the doubters, as many as remain after the NFC championship game. But he's going to be, you know, the fulcrum as well as obviously Drake May, who has been fact 15 times as both seasons. And as I've been pointing out, it wasn't like it was 10 times in one game. He's been, in fact, five times in each game. And that hatred's defense has been really opportunistic getting, helping them along in those wins.

I'm not sure that's going to be the case against the Seahawks. I want to just be clear on one thing as it relates to the total. There really isn't a public side in this one, right? Pretty split? Yeah, it's very split. It's pretty close to 50-50. Right now, both the handle and the bets. And obviously, we are still going to have a lot of money, right?

We're probably our 20, 25% of the handle that's come. in already. There's going to be a ton, obviously, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, but generally it's not going to, right? If two-thirds, let's say, the bets are on the Seahawks or 60%, it's probably not going to flip over. There are going to be late-paid, all that hatred. That we tend to see kind of the public is going to bet that one way. It's just going to be more money coming in on it. I'm guessing that money-line-wise, there's a lot of New England actions. So that really, maybe the best result for most books would be Seattle winning but not covering. Yeah, I think that they're looking for what they call the Super Bowl middle a bit,

which is where the Seahawks would win but obviously not cover that spread. The Seahawks by one, two, three, or four, as it kind of currently would stand generally with those lines. But it is interesting, just looking back right, every Super Bowl is different. but I believe over the last 25 years, we've had 11 Super Bowls with a spread of at least four and a half underdogs, 10 and 1 against the spread.

And one of those where the force folks would be looking for a similar result is that Rams Bengals game a couple years ago, where the Rams, I believe, were four and a half point favorites, one by three, so one, but didn't cover the spread. But typically as well, just for those betting, you know, you've got trends on both sides. One of the trends, which has been kind of the opposite of that,

is you pick the winner, the game, the spread is usually irrelevant. So I believe that the 59 Super Bowl, 57 and 2 is the winning team against the spread. So in general, you pick the winner, they're going to cover the spread as well. Exactly. Is there any big exposure out there on a futures, Seattle, New England, winning the Super Bowl?

you know, at any point during the regular season or preseason, do you know of any huge exposure that anybody has on a winner? Yeah, I mean, the one that I've been tracking, actually all the way since August and is really a fascinating story, is I reported that a guy at that MGM in Vegas basically just had these series of bets. So he had $150,000 in futures bet that's on the Seahawks. He bet 50,000 on them to make the playoffs, which I think was at plus 180, 50,000 on them to win the NFC, which was somewhere like 24, 28 to 1, and then 50,000 on them to win the Super Bowl at 60 to 1.

So that's a win. He's already won two of those. If the Super Bowl would be $3 million, and he actually came back to Vegas last weekend, and one of the big bets that I reported on, a $725,000 wager. On the Patriots, Honey line. was his hedge. So if the Patriots win, he'll win, I think it's $1.4 million. If the Seahawks win, he'll win, you know, 1.5, 1.6 million. Why didn't he just, why wasn't the hedge, you know, whatever the number is plus the points?

Yeah, a great question. One, I would love to ask this individual at some point if his identity is made public or known. but I think for some people, it's just you want to feel like, hey, I know how much I'm going to make, and I don't have to worry about the game, right? Yeah, but he could have won both ways. I mean, he had a middle there. That doesn't make any sense to me at all. So that's interesting.

So 50, 50 and 50, 50 to make the playoffs, 50 to win the NFC championship, 50 to win the Super Bowl. I'm sorry, what were the Super Bowl odds again before the season on the Seahawks? 60 to 1. 60 to 1. What, I mean, what were the odds on that? Nobody, there's no big exposure on the Patriots winning at all. I'm sure there are some wagers on them winning the Super Bowl, but no massive wager, right? No, there is some more, I think, at Draft King.

Dave Portnoy has a bet on them. There was actually one better who bet on the Patriots, I believe, $10,000 at 80 to 1 before last year's Super Bowl. which is a, you know, there are very few futures bets that are over a year old, but that's one that would win $800,000. So I think, and obviously with drafting states in Massachusetts, they're going to be a little heavier being live in Massachusetts as well, taking a lot of that action. So I think of the books, they're going to have more of the Patriot's exposure than some other books for the most part. I think the books are in good shape. The Seahawks did a couple of those Vegas books, and that BetMGM, they have some liability there.

But for the most part, you know, the books are in good shape you saw, obviously. The Bills are out, the 49ers out, Ravens out, Chiefs, out, the Lions out, all these popular public teams have gone by the wayside. And so there's, you know, at teams at 60 to 1, I think the Patriots were 80 to 1 or higher before the season at some books. So in general, they also were not highly set either, especially the Seahawks at Bet, NGM before the season. So it's not like it was a popular sleeper.

It was, if anything, I remember Cardinals preseason buzz in that division. So it's kind of come out of nowhere, which generally for the books and the future's book is a good thing. I think I remember reading this the day after the championship games. Correct me if I'm wrong. But this is, in terms of sort of the aggregate long-shot odds of two teams in the Super Bowl, what their odds were pre-season, this is it. this is, you know, we have never seen a Super Bowl matchup with 260 or one, you know,

odds to win the Super Bowl teams in Super Bowl history. Is that true? Definitely. Yeah, I think I tweeted that on Sunday night or. Yeah, okay, it was from you. Yeah, I follow you. Yeah, so it's sports odds history, which is a great kind of database of some historical odds. and looked through that. And so the second longest, kind of with both the teams, was back, I think it was 1982,

you know, 1981 season, which was the 49ers Bengals. Bengles, yeah. Super Bowl. That came out of nowhere. Came out of nowhere. Right. Yeah.

And I think the Bengals were 60 to 1 and the Niners were 50 to 1. So that's been, that was the closest with both teams. Obviously, a couple years ago, that Bengals team actually against the Rams, I think the Bengals were about 150 to 1. So they were a long shot that year.

The Rams, obviously not as far. I think they were somewhere in the double digits, 12 to 1, 15 to 1 before the season. So typically that's kind of what you'll get. And that Rams seemed in 1999, obviously the one that won at all at 150 to 1. I believe the Titans were like 30 to 1.

So that's where you have, obviously, a very, very long shot. And then 30 to 1 is still not a favorite. But yeah, the longest kind of preseason Super Bowl odds, Super Bowl that we've seen, which kind of, again, speaks to why in general there isn't as much liability. The books are in good shape. Yeah, that makes total sense. That San Francisco-Sincentrata 81 season, both of them, I think, were either six and ten or less than that the year before, and nobody knew that Joe Montana was going to be

what he turned out to be. Right. And the Bengals, you know, had Ken Anderson, and they were unbelievable offensively that year. So in the history of this Super Bowl game, I would imagine that, you know, the legal books, the Nevada books over the years before we, you know, legalized gambling in this country, you know, six, seven years ago, that it's been a winning Sunday with everything they offer, you know, all of what people have told me before they call profit margin. opportunities, which are, you know, all of the prop bets, you know, from teasers, parlies to all the actual prop bets. They've always won big on this particular day. But I did see you tweet something out.

And this would have been sort of pre the days of like dozens and dozens, if not hundreds, of prop bets. There are two games in which the Nevada sports books lost on Super Bowl Sunday. Tell everybody about those two games. Yes, obviously sports betting legal in Nevada for the longest period of time. We now have 39 states along with Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico, and then depending on your definition of gambling, and you have prediction markets live in all 50 states as well that you can trade on the Super Bowl.

But going back to 1991, there's basically been 35 Super Bowls leading into this one. Nevada Sports Books have a good record of 33 and 2. So they have lost twice. That's incorporating, obviously, the futures, the game prop. Right. One was the first was that 49ers Super Bowl, 1995, were their big favorites. I didn't remember. I mean, again, a little, I wasn't exactly betting on the game here a little before my wagering lifetime.

But an 18-point favorite over the Chargers, and obviously they won 49-26, so the game went over the total. They couldn't really, books couldn't set the line high enough. But even in that, there was $69.6 million wagered, and the sports books lost about $400,000 across all the sports books in Nevada. So that's not a large amount. And then 2008, the Giants beating the Patriots is 12.5.5. Underdog 1714. Even in that, the sports books only lost a little more than $2.5 million. So these are not big losses, even when they do lose.

And props have become such a bigger part of the action. well, now over 50% of the total handle at most books. So they're really rooting for in general, you know, as Ozmet doesn't say kind of a boring game, right? They want a low scoring game, not a lot of touchdowns, not a lot of crazy event. We don't want the octopus where a player scores a touchdown and then scores the subsequent two-point conversion. They don't want overtime. They don't want a safety. They don't want a safety.

Yeah, exactly. The Peyton Manning, right? They definitely don't want a safety as the first scoring. That's a disaster. So things like that that are one-off, they don't want. What are the safety odds? I can find them, but what are the safety odds? Do you know off the top of your head?

I don't off the top of my head, but it's another one I can look it up as that. Whatever. Yeah, I mean, it's another one where in general you're going to have the public's going to be betting the guess at large numbers. Of course. Yeah. Underdogs and the wise guys are going to be betting no, even if it's minuses. 1800, minus 2,000, just because there still is that value. We always remember the ones that happen, right?

It's like a bad beat, but it doesn't mean it happens that frequently. Right. But, again, this is why you want to put a little to win a lot, and that's why betting on things like that are fun, and, you know, that's why the sports books clean up generally on the props as well. It's fun looking at sort of Super Bowl odds history, and it sounds like you've spent a lot of time looking at it as well, because that game that you mentioned, the 49ers,

Super Bowl 19 win. Super Bowl 19, no, Super Bowl 29, whatever it was, 1995. They were, that's the largest favorite of a team in Super Bowl history, went off at 18, 18, 18 and a half. But the most famous big line in Super Bowl history is Super Bowl three. The Namath and Jets, some people say one of the biggest upsets in the history of sports. the Colts were basically minus 18 and some minus 17 and a halves in that particular Super Bowl. So that would have been a good one to have the money line on. I wonder if they offered money line betting in 1969. They probably did.

Probably had that. Don't think there are any props. Not a lot of props. I don't even think they – I'm looking at a total for that game right now. and the total, the only Super Bowl where it looks like there wasn't a total was Super Bowl 1. It says not available. Green Bay was a 14-point favorite, no total. But it looks like starting in Super Bowl 2, we've always had a point spread in a total in the game.

Yeah, sports looks are good about expanding the menu, right? Yeah. I think, you know, that's that, hey, we can not only bet on who can win, and by how much, but now a total, and they kind of go from there. Let me ask you one question unrelated, because you just referred to it, but what do you make of these prediction markets, the Cal Shees and the Robin Hoods and what they're doing and what the offering for the consumer is compared to just gambling on a game? I think it makes sense, right?

I mean, ultimately, it's a little akin to the Daily Fantasy Sports. 10 or so years ago where you have kind of a law. And in this case, as it's construed, they are regulated under the CTSC. They're basically saying they're a financial derivative, and therefore they're different than sports betting. It's not betting because it's a financial instrument. And so because of that, they're able to be federally regulated instead of state-by-state regulation. and obviously there's, you know, as Andrew Brandt likes to say, there will be lawyers.

And so, you know, there are certain states that have come out against this. But in essence, it's a little bit of a, you know, a loophole that has been opened. And clearly, we've seen a lot of other books as well launched their own prediction markets in this space, not wanting to lose market share in some of those states like a California, like a tech, with a lot of people where sports betting isn't legal. And so that was obviously a way that some of the sports folks early on who were those big DFS players, they already had gone in those states. They had those databases of people who like to play DFS.

Shocker that people who like to play DFS also like to bet on sports. And so you already kind of have that built an advantage. So that's what some of these companies don't want to lose. And I think that's why they went towards that. ultimately it's just a different way kind of of looking at it, right? Some people's brains, I think, works that way, and it's just kind of like, okay, the Seahawks are at 65% to win the game, right? And that makes sense. Ultimately, a lot of people translate odds into that implied possibility, right?

So if it's a money line of, you know, minus 220, you can obviously translate that. And that's kind of the step with the prediction market. I think, you know, I'm not sure if the education is there. for kind of the overall public consumer. But I think that's the same as sports betting. There's plenty of people who you would go and talk to and say, you know, the C-Hawks are minus four and a half, and they're probably going to look at you with a blank stare.

It's as basic as it gets. You're right. It's almost appealing to that audience that deals in buying and selling options, you know, in the market rather than, although a lot of my friends that do that certainly understand what plus four and a half with New England means too. You know, those two things usually go hand in hand. But yeah, it's an interesting thing to see how it's taken off here over the last year or so.

Appreciate it. Enjoy it. We'll do it again maybe before the tournament. Thanks for your help. Sounds perfect. Ben Fox, everybody from Yahoo Sports. If you missed my smell test pick on Friday, I will repeat it in the next segment, but I'll also give you the two prop bets that I have played.

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button or the follow button, regardless of where you're listening to the podcast, but following it is a big deal for us as well. All right, if you missed the smell test pick on Friday show, Patriots Plus Five. It was five on Friday at My Bookie. There are some four and a halves out there right now. My bookie still got it at five. I even see some fours as of this morning, but I gave it out on Friday, New England plus five is the final smell test pick of the year. I did not have a play on the total, although I'd lean over. I actually think New England can win this game. I understand what the best result for the sports books is today.

That best result would be a Seattle win by between one and three points, probably. They don't even want it to go to four where they might get some pushes. that's the best result because they probably have some exposure on New England as a money line play. But the play is New England plus the four and a half. I'm looking forward to this game. Should be an exciting game. I know that there's not a lot of excitement heading into it, but it's an intriguing matchup. Two very good defensive teams right now. But in the case of Seattle, a defensive team that gave up a lot in the NFC championship game. And in the case of New England, the defense has been lights out.

The offense has really struggled in the postseason against really good defensive teams. Both teams, outstanding special teams units, returners. This should be a very interesting game. And I'll tell you what, man, I love Vrable in this spot. He's been there, done that certainly as a player, not as a head coach, but he knows what it takes. and I would take him in this game as of now, maybe not two, three years down the road over Mike McDonald. All right, I've got two prop bets that I have actually already played myself.

I'm not a big prop bet player. Prop bets really are profit margin for the sports books. And I don't play the novelty props. I'm not really into Gatorade colors or National Anthem Time or, you know, will Bad Bunny sing DTMF as his last song? I'm not familiar enough with the Bad Bunny catalog. But I do have two plays that I found interesting because just doing a little digging to find out, were there some overwhelming public bets on props this week?

And there were. And here were the two top player prop public bets, because I'm going against both of them, and I've already done it. So, by the way, real quickly, these prop bet plays are straight out of the smell test handbook in terms of going against the public, trying to be on the side of the sports book and what exposure they may have on certain picks. But I'm not counting either one of these two as an actual smell test pick. The results are not going to be included on my smell test 2025, 26 record.

but they are prop bet plays that are very much against public sentiment and with the house. So I'll start with this one. One of the most bet prop bets right now, most played prop bets this week and into the weekend, is a player prop bet on Drake May's rushing yards. The numbers 35 and a half, and there's an overwhelming over on this play. Drake May, remember, had 65 yards on 10 carries in the AFC championship game. He had 66 yards rushing in their first playoff win against the Chargers. There's some exposure on this one for the house.

They need the under. I'll take under 35 and a half rushing yards on Drake May. The price on that's minus 109, so it's a decent price. you know, I'm looking for some lower minus price numbers or even a plus here or there. But this one, I bet it already, Drake May under 35 and a half rushing yards at minus 109, that being the price. I actually think Drake May might have a decent day throwing the football, but I'm not going to wager on passing yards or passing touchdowns with him.

there's no real one-sided action from what I can tell and from what I have heard from some of my friends offshore on this one. The other one is this. Kenneth Walker, the third, is getting a lot of play in this game. MVP play rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, anytime touchdown. You know, a lot of Kenneth Walker, the third action in this Super Bowl. But here's the one where the sports books have some exposure. There is a lot, a lot of over 21 and a half receiving yards for Kenneth Walker. According to the people that I've talked to, that may be the number one exposure spot for a lot of sports books. Who knew that Kenneth Walker would be a big overplay on reception yardage? And the reason for it is recency bias.

the number looks really low to a lot of betters. He had four catches for 49 yards in the NFC title game. He had 29 yards receiving in the playoff win over San Francisco, and that was a game where they pretty much took their pedal, took their foot, excuse me, off the pedal in the fourth quarter. So 21 and a half looks low, and the public's playing over Kenneth Walker's 21 and a half receiving. yards. He only averaged 9.1 receiving yards in the regular season. But, you know, for a game like

this where you get a lot of betters looking at these prop bets for the first time, and the last game was 49 yards in pass receptions, they're going over. It looks very low to them. So I'll go under 21 and a half Kenneth Walker receiving yards in Super Bowl 60. So two player prop bets. that are definitely sort of against the grain, against public, and siding with the sports books who will have some exposure in these areas. So, again, under 35 and a half, Drake May rushing yards, under 21.5, Kenneth Walker receiving yards. And again, the actual smell test pick for the Super Bowl is New England plus the five.

All right, that's it for the day. Back tomorrow. Enjoy the game.