The Kevin Sheehan Show - NFC East Champs!

Episode Date: September 10, 2026

Kevin and Thom today with their Washington Commanders' season predictions/records. The guys are more optimistic than the masses with Kevin predicting an NFC East title. They did their overall NFC picks to couple with the AFC picks they did on Tuesday which culminated with their 2026 Super Bowl matchup and winner. They also predicted the NFL MVP of the upcoming season. Plenty on last night's Seattle-New England game with lots of thoughts on Drake Maye's night. Exclusive High Roller bonus designed for bettors who want more firepower for this season. Double your money all the way up to $5000. Minimum deposit $1500. Use my promo code “DCVIP” at https://www.mybookie.ag/signup/?affid=3910. If you want to try Momentous Signature Spec Creatine, head to livemomentous.com and use code SHEEHAN for up to 35% off your entire first order. So if you are looking for that perfect gift, or want to impress your friends and family with an epic meal the next time you host, go to GOLDBELLY.com and get 20% off your first order with promo code sheehan. Use my link ThriveMarket.com/sheehan to get $30 off your first two orders. You cannot get this deal on the website — it’s only through my link. That right there covers your membership fee, so sign up now before this exclusive offer ends.” ADDITIONAL TWENTY PERCENT OFF better plants and better growing at Trees.com using the code SHEEHAN at checkout. Try QUO for free PLUS get 20% off your first 6 months when you go to Quo.com/SHEEHAN. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheon Show. Here's Kevin. Hey, quick look was closed. Throw it up to the air. Did he get the feet down?

Vision. And that was the final of Drake May's three fourth quarter interceptions, and it was a bad one and a game ender. Seattle wins the season opener, 13 to 10, and they did it without their starting quarterback. after the sixth snap of the season. Tommy's here. I am here.

The show's presenting sponsor, as always, Window Nation, 86690 Nation, windownation.com, if you need new windows, a very, very busy Thursday show. We've got our NFC picks. We've got our Washington season predictions. And Tommy will give out his Eagles, Washington pick for

week one. What did you think of the game last night? Well, I got to tell you, this is what I thought at a game. I fell asleep after the first half. You really did? Yes, I did. Okay.

It was not an exciting game in the first half. That's for sure. Yeah. Yeah, and I thought that, at that time, I thought that Seahawks are going to lose this game because Drake May is not a very good back. Cup quarterback.

And he proved me wrong. You mean Drew Locke. Drew Locke is not a... Drew Locke. Yeah. Drew Locke. I mean. Yeah.

Yes. I mean, I just thought that, you know, and it was kind of, you know, Sam Darnel going down, what, six snaps into the first half. I'm thinking, Jesus, the NFL can be frustrating. Here's the Super Bowl quarterback injured, you know, two minutes, a couple of minutes into the first game in the season. I think this is, I think it's frustrating. I think it's one of the reasons I say it's dangerous to play the schedule game.

And the funny thing about the Darnold injury is they're one of the really good teams or the expected good teams that probably, well, they drop without Darnold, but they don't drop off the face of the map without Darnold. Locke's actually a bit of a gamer. I've always kind of liked Drew Locke. But he's a backup. He's an NFL backup. He's not what Sam Darnold has become here in recent years. But it's not the same as the Chiefs losing Mahomes or the Bengals losing Burrough or the Buffalo Bills losing Josh Allen or the Rams losing Stafford.

It's not in that category. And part of the reason why it's not in that category and they're going to be able to maybe survive it better than most teams is their defense is really, really good. It looks really good again. And they were without one of their best players. last night on defense. Nick Amanawry was out last night. So yeah, we get him in week three.

Tommy and I are recording the show today a bit early. So if there is news about Sam Darnold's injury in terms of how long he's going to be out, we don't know it as of the recording of this podcast. It doesn't look great. It's a hip injury. and, you know, it could be something minor, but the internet doctors last night were having their way with it, and most of them leaned in the direction of this could be probably more serious than not serious. But we'll see. That game in week three, the home opener,

it would be better to face Drew Locke than to face Sam Darnold. Yes, yes, obviously. But that defense, you talked about that defense. there was a quote from Smith, and I don't know if I'm pronouncing his name right, Jigba. JASN, yeah, Jackson Smith and Jigba? Yeah, the offensive player of the year in the league last year. Yes. Yeah.

We knew coming in it was going to be a fourth quarter game, and that's who we are. We're going to fight. We knew it was a dog fight, and we love it. Whatever it looks like in the first half, second quarter, We're going to make it right. We're going to keep fighting until the clock hits triple zero. So I was happy, you know, and what I liked about this is it reminded me of quotes I got from, this is a long time ago,

from the Tampa team that won the Super Bowl with that defense led by Warren Sat. Oh, the 2002 books. Yes. It was a story. I remember that was the theme. They felt like they were a fourth quarter. The fourth quarter was their quarter, and that's when they were going to win games. And this is how great defensive teams think.

You know, it's like a great fighter who thinks that the championship rounds, you know, the last three or four rounds are going to be his, are always going to be his. And this is the way great defense is thinking. That's why I love great defensive teams. I love great defensive teams, too. I have definitely a soft spot for great defensive teams. I think part of it is just the era in which I became an NFL fan, the 70s and then obviously into the 80s.

I mean, the 70s, just the Raiders defenses. First of all, the first teams I can remember, George Allen's defenses were incredible. But the Raiders' defenses, the Steelers' defenses, of the 70s, the Vikings defenses of the 70s. And then you go into the 80s and the all-time greatest defense, I think, in my lifetime, the 85 bears and their defenses, the giants of that era, those defensive teams, led by Lawrence Taylor.

And you know what? I've had a couple of NFL guests on the radio show and a couple, I think, on the podcast as well over the summer and into this week. and I've had one question that's been sort of recurring, which is, do you have this sense that there's been a major resurgence of defense winning? You know, we went through Tommy, I wouldn't say the entire century, because we started this century with the 2000 Ravens, and then we had the 2002 bucks like you talked about.

But we definitely got away from in this sport because of rules, primarily. We, it's just, they just skewed and they favored the offense. Where that old saying, offense puts people in the seats, defense wins championships wasn't true anymore. Offensive, the best offensive teams were winning. You know, the Kansas City Chiefs, and they had some good defensive teams. Don't get me wrong.

But it was really offensive led their Super Bowls. Now, the last two years, Philadelphia's defense won that Super Bowl two years. ago. And last year, the best teams in the league were the best defensive teams by the time we got to the end of the year. Houston, New England's defense was nasty in the AFC. Denver's was off the charts great at the end of the year, really all year long. Seattle obviously had a dominant defense. The Rams defense tailed off a bit towards the end of the year. But last night, that game was not off-putting for me to watch. Now, the mistakes and the sloppiness was,

but that was a pretty hard-hitting game for the opener. And it really got good in the second half. I'm sorry, you missed it. I know, so am I. You know, but I read enough about it to know that the Seahawks are a great organization. They really are. Well, new ownership now. Yeah.

I know, and the new owners closed the same. don't expect any changes. Well, they shouldn't. So the big takeaway from this game, Tommy, is probably not the injury to Sam Darnold, which is a big story, six plays into the season. It's not even, you know, an A.J. Brown injury, he got injured in the second half.

We don't know how serious that one is. It's the game that Drake May played, especially in the fourth quarter, where he threw three interceptions in a quarter two of them were truly horrendous interceptions with one of them being unforgivable. And that is the final one that ended the game. You're in easy field goal range to tie that game and force overtime. And you put one up for grabs.

Now, you know, throwing to Mack Hollins last night was a good choice for him a lot of the night on some big downs. But that was, that's truly an unforgivable throw at any level. And I have to tell you that I do like Drake May. I mean, I obviously don't like him as much as I like Jaden Daniels, didn't coming out. But I was very impressed with him last year. And I took notes during the game last night. And I'm like, man, this defense is nasty. And Drake May is doing some really, really good things with his legs.

He is very good off schedule. He's a very good runner. He's really, really athletic. I actually, even after last night, I would not be, you know, we live in a world of, you know, what we saw yesterday is the real thing. And those that, and I know I've got friends of mine that are convinced that Drake May is better than Jaden Daniels. And I think Drake May is good too. I think they both could end up being great quarterbacks. I thought there were some really good things from Drake May last night until he needed to deliver. And he looked like he did in the playoff games last year at times.

Now, they had a worse offensive line. And last night, he wasn't helped out. Dobbs dropped a ball, you know, right prior to one of the interceptions that he threw in the fourth quarter. But that is a play. You can't explain a way you can't forgive. He can't do that. You know, a college quarterback can't do that. A high school quarterback can't do that.

You're in field goal range. It's third and five. You've got to throw that ball away if nobody's open. You cannot put it in. to harm's way, and he did it, and there's 17 of these, that's it. It's not like they're 82 of them or 162 of them, and they lost a game that was winnable against a backup quarterback last night. Tough team, really tough team, and Locke played well, but that one really ultimately was on Drake May. There's no other way to describe it. He cost them the football game.

I think the conversation on Drake May is capable of changing, though. Because it wasn't just what we saw, like he said, last night. It's the memory of him in the playoffs last year when he basically melted down. You know, this is what we saw in the playoffs last year. This is a continuation of the meltdown in a pressure situation for him. Of course the conversation can change. Of course it can. That's what fans do.

That's what media members do. We live in this recency bias world. But it's not a recency bias if it's something that happened in February. Well, okay. But even he did, he still was the starting quarterback in the Super Bowl in his second season. And he finished as a runner up as the MVP last year to Matt Stafford. So, you know, they, they struggled in a lot of ways in those playoff games. He was not good.

The offensive line was not good in those playoff games. But last night to one of the. those where if you're, you know, if you're trying to be objective, you can say this guy's got incredible talent. He looks the part, which he does. And he did some good things last night, especially with his legs in the first half. But the decision making in the fourth quarter was horrendous. And there was some of that, by the way, at North Carolina. One of the reasons that I had, like in 24, I liked Jaden, Caleb, and I liked Penix Jr. I'm probably going to be dead wrong about him.

But I liked him ahead of May. I liked May, and I said, I think he's a first round pick. Don't get me wrong. I just wouldn't take him among the top three quarterbacks. And one of the reasons was I didn't think he had great decision making at times as a college quarterback. You didn't see a lot of that last year. You saw it last night, but he's still young. and this you'd much rather have Drake May right now than J.J. McCarthy, if you're going back to the 2024 draft.

Yeah, but I mean, I didn't need to be convinced that I'd even before the draft about that. And here's the other thing, though. I mean, you talked about, we've talked about Jane Daniels here in the open, and he mentioned them. I don't think he's capable of that kind of game. Yes, every quarterback's capable of that kind of game. I don't think he is. Every quarterback's capable of that. I don't think he's in his DNA to have a three interception game. Oh, come on.

Of course it is. You could have a three interception game without any of them being your fault. You could have three-tipped balls. You could have your arm hit on one of them. Right. He'll throw a three-pick game in his career. I guarantee it. That wasn't the case last night.

No, that was not. That was some bad, bad decision making by Drake May. And that would be concerning. And, you know, last year's performance in the postseason would be concerning, too. You know, there are some stats out there on this guy from last year into last night that are kind of scary stats. I talked a lot about towards the end of last year, they got lucky with the schedule. they got lucky with a lot of things last year, like Washington did to a certain degree,

although I think the luck in 24 was a bit overrated. He's now 0.12 against teams with a winning record. Now, Seattle technically didn't have a winning record last night, but 012 against teams with a winning record. Last year, they absolutely, you know, had a cake walk of a regular season schedule, especially in terms of the defensive teams they played and then they went through murderers row in the postseason.

The Chargers defense, the Texans defense, the Broncos defense and Seattle's defense. And look, they won three of those games, you know, but they beat a backup quarterback in the AFC championship game in a second half blizzard. Houston literally handed them the game and the Chargers had no shot with their offensive line. But here's another stat that is, you know,

New England focused more than just Drake May focused. New England's last 22 opponents. 11 fired their head coach. 12 played with a quarterback who was a backup or eventually got benched. And then in Drake May's last five games, seven touchdowns, 11 turnovers, seven interceptions, four fumbles, 24 sacks taken, 143 yards lost on sacks. So he's had a tough run since the end of the regular season last year.

They play the Steelers at home next week. Then they're at Jacksonville at Buffalo. So at least right now the way it looks, it doesn't get any easier. Meanwhile, Seattle, without Darnold, maybe. They get the Cardinals next week. That's probably a Drew Locke game, I'm guessing. And then obviously at Washington. You know, it's funny.

Seattle fans are probably like, if he's only out for two weeks, we can go beat Arizona in Washington, you know? That's probably the way most of them think. Anyway, exciting games, certainly in the fourth quarter, not a clean game.

Seattle's penalties were just so harmful to their opportunities. in the game. I will say this. I made a note, they're running back Judarian Price, who was the last pick in the first round from Notre Dame. He was the other Notre Dame back after Jeremiah Love. I was very, very impressed with how he looked in his first game. 10 carries 52 yards, 5.2 yards per carry.

Not bad. And then JSN is just JSN. He is an absolute stud superstar, even without his quarterback. Eight catches, 122 yards, one touchdown. including that fourth down when he hit him in the, you know, just no one was covering him on that fourth and one, and he caught it and took it to the house. All right.

Well, we're underway, Tommy. Real football to talk about. That's nice. Yes, we are. I got this. We got football again tonight, too. Yes, we do from down under. Yeah.

I got this from Cody. Cody writes, Kevin, I'm a Washington fan living in Ohio. And then he writes parenthetically, hard for me to say commanders and I'm only 30. I think he's trying to make the point that, hey, you know, you don't have to be 50 to hate the name. Right. He writes, I found you and Tom in the last year and really love your show. It makes sense to me that fans are swayed by what they've seen recently.

But how do people who cover the sport who ranked Washington in the top 10 preseason rankings last year now have them in the low to mid-20s when the only reason last season went the way it did was because of injuries. Make it make sense. These power rankings, I mean, you just, like, if you go back to last year's power rankings, I've done this before, and I found my notes on this. Last year's power rankings, okay, from the, from NFL.com before week one. New England was number 22, which is kind of right where Washington's been, you know, preseason. They made it to the Super Bowl.

They won the division and made it to the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh was 16. They won their division, but they were behind Baltimore and Cincinnati, and they won their division. Jacksonville was 23 in the power rankings. They won their division. Denver was in the top 10. They weren't picked to win their division. Kansas City was. But then in the NFC, Chicago was 18. They won their division.

Carolina was 29th. They won their division. Seattle was 19th and behind all three, including the Cardinals, in the power rankings in the NFC West. And they not only won the division, they won the Super Bowl. Just don't pay attention to these things at this point. This goes with what I've been saying for years. Nobody knows shit about the NFL until the games begin. However. You should pay attention to our predictions. Yes, of course. Of course. We're not going to pass on making predictions because it's silly to do it.

We're silly. We're dumbasses. We do it every year. So does everybody else. It's fun. but it's meaningless. I mean, I, in terms of Cody, was it Cody? Yeah, in terms of

where Washington's ranked, I honestly, like they were, in last year's rankings, they were ninth, NFL.com preseason, okay, ninth. And they were pretty consistently

in the top 10 off of the NFC championship season in 24. Right. And yes, the reason they went five and 12 was number one, number two, number three injuries in not having their best players available to play. And so, and it would appear that they've upgraded their talent, especially on defense. But, you know, there's also something, and I talked to the guy from Yahoo yesterday, Frank Schwab on radio about this. There's also a truth about the NFL this year that perception-wise, and it's all perception. at this point.

After the Rams, there is a large group of what you would call, you know, contenders, a larger group than usual. And this guy, Frank Schwab, who was on with me,

who does the power rankings for Yahoo, he said, it was so hard to, you know, do the power rankings. He's like, I had good teams ranked in the high teams, teams that I could see

making a deep playoff run. and there is some, you know, belief heading into this season, how it'll play out, nobody knows, but there's some belief that the league is deep right now with good teams, maybe only one or two great teams, the Rams roster obviously is great, but, you know, more a deeper group of good teams that could make it to the playoffs and perhaps even win some playoff games. I mean, look at the NFC. Dallas and the Eagles you would put into that category.

A lot of people would put every single team in the NFC North into that category. Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay, and Minnesota, I wouldn't put Minnesota in there. In the NFC South, not really, but then in the NFC West, Seattle, the Rams, and the 49ers. You got two divisions in which there are three to four teams each in those divisions where people are picking those teams to do very well. It's deep. Same thing in the AFC. I mean, you've got in the AFC West, Denver, Kansas City, and the Chargers.

You've got, you know, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Cincinnati in the AFC North. Jacksonville and Houston, that may be the best one, too, in the AFC. So it's hard this year going into it, but I'm telling you, we're going to be surprised. And that's why I got to come up with more surprises for my NFC picks, which is a tease. because I'm going to have a big surprise in my NFC picks, which we will get to coming up a little bit later on in the show. Up next, we will get to our Washington, 2026 season prediction,

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And they'll leave your home looking nicer than when they arrived. 86690 Nation or windownation.com. All right, Tommy, it's time for our season prediction. for the Washington team here. Yesterday I had three bold predictions for the season. Mike Sanra still will lead the league in interceptions. Nick Cross will earn his first Pro Bowl bid, and then the one that I don't think many people really agreed with,

I said that Dan Quinn would finish in the top three for NFL coach of the year. Now, you can't have that kind of bold prediction. without thinking the team is going to do well this season. Because the NFL coach of the year usually goes to the team that overachieves by a lot. You know, they win a division when they were picked to finish third or fourth in the division. They win, you know, nine games after winning only two the year before or whatever. I think I'm pretty optimistic about what could be this year. I'll let you go first with your prediction.

You and I were rather excited about the 2025 season this time last year. Yes. Yes, we were. It did not really work out. When the division go to the Super Bowl. Yeah, win the division. Go to the Super Bowl. I think I had Washington as like the two-seed beating San Francisco on the road in the NFC championship game.

to get to the Super Bowl right back at San Francisco's Stadium, Levi Stadium, for the Super Bowl against the Chiefs, where I did have the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl. But all right, go ahead. What's your prediction and give me a reason or two why? Well, you know, I kind of struggled with it. I'm not picking Dan Quinn to be coach of the year. I said top three.

I said top three. Okay. I wrote in my column today in Washington Times. I'm not ready to bury them either. Well, that's nice. That's generous of you. Well, I mean, I think it is since I think everybody else seems to be. That's true.

They're ranked near the bottom of almost every NFL observer outside the Beltway. You know, and the visual evidence that, you know, you was limited, that you have dismissed, weighs a little bit more with me than it does with you. But I ignored all that because I'm not going to be foolish enough to bail on Jaden Daniel. I think he can overcome still a lot of the issues facing the team, particularly the offensive line. uh... you know i mean i i remember i went back and looked at twenty twenty four and i know you know they played a lot of bad teams they didn't play a lot of challenging games

but you know they play the eagles and they beat the eagles you know in that comeback win uh... you know that offensive line did not have laramie tonsle on it and had nick allegrety on it you know and they managed to survive with with weapons that are far, we're far inferior than the weapons he has available to him this year.

Okay. So all that taking into account, and my firm belief that Jane Daniels is a great quarterback. I have them being competitive, but not matching what they've done, what they did in 2024, for, but not embarrassing anybody either. Okay. Do you want my record?

Yeah, I thought that's where we were building towards. I like everything you've said so far. I mean, Tommy's column, for those that say he's incapable of writing anything positive, it's a pretty positive column, and it's very positive about Jaden Daniels. So what's your record? I mean, they have a big challenge facing them. of the teams and the defenses they're going to play. I have them going nine and eight.

Nine and eight. With a winning record. Yeah. Whether that's good enough to make it a wild card, I don't think it will be, because how you talked about how deep and competitive so many good teams are. The perceptions.

But, yeah. Yes. But I have them going nine and eight. and which I think, you know, which I think would be a successful season for them. All right. That's, I'm actually surprised, but I think everything you said makes sense because you are a believer in Jaden Daniels, as am I. And I have felt since the moment, maybe since the night that he threw the past

to Terry McCorn to beat the Bengals in week three of 2024, we finally, finally have a franchise quarterback, a guy that's going to ensure year and year out that this is a competitive football team that has a chance to win more games than it loses. Some years, injuries may derail it, some years a defense may derail it, some years a supporting cast may derail it from getting to the postseason. But this is not going to be a bad football team as long as he's playing. quarterback for them. So I go in with that. I just go in with, you know, obviously there is some hope here that he is a healthy

quarterback in 2026, which he was not in 2025. And that doomed the season more than anything else. All the other injuries piled on top of that one, you know, turned it into a 5 and 12 season. Him alone made it so that it was going to be a 6 and 11 season probably, 7 and 10 at best. You know, it was doomed the moment he was earmarked for four complete football games. So this is really contingent on Jaden Daniels being the quarterback for 17 games. So I also look at this team.

I don't, you know me, I don't look at a schedule. I mean, other than doing a fake schedule before the real schedule comes out, a mock schedule, I don't really get worked up at the schedule. I mean, we already have an opportunity here after one football game to play Seattle in week three without their starting quarterback. That completely changes the look of that game going into it. But I just look at the roster. I look at the coaching. I think coaching and quarterback do matter.

There are question marks about the two coordinators, but I do like the system that David Blow, I think, will employ. I'm a fan of that system as much as I am any other system offensively in the league. I think Jaden will be a really good fit. I think the Diggs acquisition will end up being huge. Now, it's possible that Diggs is at an age where he kind of falls off a bit. To your point, you know, the offensive line, they're going to miss Tonsal. There's no way you aren't impacted by the loss of Tonsal. But as I've mentioned, and Logan Paulson on yesterday's show said the same thing.

Good coordinators and a good quarterback can make up for, you know, a lesser talented offensive line. You know, scheme, play calling. You don't, you know, you don't expose your flaws with a game plan and with play calling. You try to protect and mask those flaws. To your point, they had Brandon Coleman starting at left tackle as a. rookie in 2024. Nick Allegrety was on that offensive line in 2024. Defense to me is everything, because if I assume with this prediction that Jaden has to play and can't get hurt, the big difference between what I am going to predict and something worse or even something much better is what they

are defensively. They have been a bad defensive team since 23. since 2023, 2024 and 2025, bad defense of football. Last year, I think the worst in my lifetime of watching this team. And yes, they were injury plagued defensively, but it wasn't likely going to be a good defense even if it was a healthy defense. Adam Peters and company said, what do we have to fix? What's number one? Defense.

They've got 10 to 11 new players. They've got a defensive coordinator. They may have eight to nine. players on the field at any given time this year that were not on the field last year for this team. I don't know what it's going to look like. I think I'm going to like the scheme because I've always liked Brian Flores' scheme. So if that's what Durante Jones is bringing, I think I'm going to like it. There are players that they acquired that I was a fan of, a big fan of Nick Crosses. I liked Oway. I really did. And I do think Frankie Louvo is a much better player than he showed

last year. I think he's going to be back to what he was two years ago, which was all pro, second team, form. This is a contract year for Dron Payne. We know what he does in contract years. I'm hopeful that he has a big year. I thought Kinlaw actually played well last year. Dorrance Armstrong was their best defensive player. I don't know why we'd see a drop off, although maybe the injury will affect. He will miss the opener because of suspension. I think a defense like Durante Jones's can actually really highlight a guy like Sanristil or Ameek Robertson as playmakers. They are, they're ballhawks. That's the way they've played throughout their career.

But you've got to have the ability to stop the run and then get after the passer for those things to come around. It's hard to believe that they could be any worse defensively or even as bad. And takeaways will be a major, major difference maker in the season. If they're near the bottom of the league again, they're going to fight to get to 8 and 9, 9, and 8 with Jaden Healthy. If they're at least in the middle of the pack defensively, middle of the pack takeaways-wise, I think this is a 10-7 football team, and that's what I'm predicting. 10-7, and I'll tell you in the next segment, whether or not that's good enough to win the

division, but a 10-and-7 football team with a quarterback that ends up having a true, you know, NFL comeback of the year award type of season. You know, Mahomes and Jaden are the top two odds favorites for comeback player of the year. Kyler Murray's on that list as well. And I believe in him. And at this point, I believe in the offense that I think he's going to play in. And I like them this year as long as he's the quarterback and the defense improves, you know, to somewhere approaching the top half, somewhere in the middle of the league defensively, and in

takeaways. And if that happens, it's a 10-win football team. That's what I'm predicting. 10 and 7. So we're pretty close. Yes, we are. Yes, we are. And, you know, that's my view is the most optimistic view I can come up with for this team.

I'll be honest with you. I mean, I have my doubts. I have my doubts about the coaching. I have my doubts about Dan Quinn as a head coach. But I put those doubts aside and invested all my logic in the quarterback. 10 and 7 was not the most optimistic that I could come up with. I could legitimately come up with something much better than 10 and 7. They were 12 and 5 two years ago with Jaden Daniels, a quarterback.

and what looks like a lesser roster and a lesser defensive coordinator. And yes, you can look at the schedule and you can say it's not as tough, but it's just so hard to play that schedule game. It's just so hard to do it. So it's not the most optimistic I could have. I considered something better than 10 and 7 because I actually think that, like with a lot of teams, you know, in that 25 to 28 team range, somewhere between 7 and 10 and 10 and 7, but when you got the quarterback,

it kind of skews towards the higher end and maybe a little bit higher in terms of your upside if everything goes well. A lot of things have to go well. I get that. The defense to me is number two after Jaden's health. Jaden Healthy is number one. There's no close number two. Number two is, God help us if the defense is as bad or anywhere near as bad as it was last

year because that will be hard to overcome. Two years ago, that is really the aberration, winning 12 games with a team that can't stop the run. That is an aberration in the NFL. And it was an aberration because you had, you know, basically a one-off on the other side of the ball and Jaden Daniels in the way that he was performing. All right. Now let me ask you this. Okay. You know, the Logan Paulson, theory that an offensive coordinator can adjust their offenses to cover your weaknesses. Doesn't that then limit your offense? Not necessarily.

I mean, look, Laramie Tunsell not being on the offensive line does limit your offense. It's the guy that you're putting in there very likely isn't as good as the top three or four left tackle as a pass protective. in the league. Like the conversation about Nick Allegretti is, to me, I have no idea if he's going to be a good center or not. The conversation that's more important in terms of what we know is that Laramie Tunsell is great and he's not going to play for the majority of the season. That is impactful.

It's limiting to a certain degree. But in terms of like what they could produce with really good game planning and play calling an exceptional quarterback play. I don't, you know, I still think they can produce a high level of offensive football this year. Yeah, I think

I think Jane's weapons are a big step up from 2024, and I think that could help him a lot. Yeah, I mean, Terry McClorn and Stefan Diggs are not, you know, like a top five wide receiver duo

in the NFL. Let's not go crazy. like they are somewhere certainly in the top half of the league in wide receiver duos and maybe even closer to 10 than 15 you know I think we did this when they acquired digs and I think I had them as you know ninth or 10th best duo in the league but one of the best duos in the league you got to play twice in the cowboys you know as long as they're both on the field lamb and pickens um you play minnesota later in the year with jefferson and addison if they're both on the field you play Cincinnati with Jason Higgins. That's probably the number one pairing of wide receivers. You've got Nakua and Devante Adams with the Rams. I mean, you've got some incredible receiver

duos that you are facing this year if they're actually on the field when you face them, not to mention you know, in week three, the offensive player of the year last year in Jackson Smith and Jigba. So, yeah, Terry and Diggs is much better than Terry and someone else. I'm glad they acquired Diggs. But I don't want to make it out to be like, oh, wow, they just upgraded to one of the best wide receiver duos in the league because they're not that. But they're much better off than they were before August 5th or whatever day they acquired Diggs. All right.

Let's get to our NFC predictions. We'll do that right after these words from a few of our sponsors. Hey guys, back to tell you about Goldbelly, not only one of my favorite sponsors, but one of my favorite sites. It's an amazing spot where you can order the most iconic famous foods from restaurants all across the United States, and they'll ship it anywhere across the country. And with football season back, there's not a better fit than football and Goldbelly, and I've got a recommendation for your next game day party. Here it is.

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at Trees.com using the code Sheehan at checkout. Trees.com code Sheehan. Now's the perfect time to plant. Let's grow together. Use Sheehan to save today. Offer is valid for limited time. Terms and conditions may apply. All right, Tommy, tell us about Shelly's.

Well, this is a great time for Shelly's backroom at 1331 F Street, Northwest in the district, because it's a great place to watch NFL football. eight high-definition TVs all throughout the bar, and you watch it in comfort in these nice, comfortable couches and chairs. You know, the kind of thing you'd like to settle into, watch a game while you're smoking a cigar, one of the many cigars that they have available for pick for choice at Shelley's backroom. everything you want for Sunday football is there. The drink menu is top level.

The cigar menu, top 25 cigar aficionado cigars, are included in their selection. You know, their food menu, we've talked about their custom blend beef is excellent. And often NFL fans wind up at Shelley. You'll find NFL fans cheering for their teams. you'll find a lot of commanders fans there over the years. I've noticed that before games and particularly after home games, since it's really just like maybe a 15-minute drive from Northwest Stadium, a lot of commanders fans wind up at Shelley's either before a late afternoon game

or after a 1 o'clock game. That's because it's a great place to hang out, and it's a great place to watch football from the 1 o'clock game, kickoff game all the way to the Sunday night football game. You can find out more at shelley's backroom.com. You know, I'm not a big go-to-a-bar to watch my teams anyway. I don't mind being in a bar watching games, but I don't like to watch my teams. And when I'm talking about my teams, I'm talking about the skins or the Terps.

Like, I like to watch those games pretty much by myself or with very close loved ones. because it's hard to get into a crowded situation to watch your favorite team. But if I had to go to a place to watch our team, I would probably do it at Shelley's because it really is like a true neighborhood kind of a situation, which for you and we've talked about this before, but those are our favorite spots, the true neighborhood saloons, bars. those are the best. And you grew up in...

It's not loud. Yeah. It's not loud. It's not filled with people playing, you know, a cornhole in some kind of hall in the back. Right. There's not a lot of distractions. You want to watch football? You can watch football with Shelley.

All right. Let's get to our NFC picks. Our AFC picks, Tommy and I landed on the same AFC. champion, the Kansas City Chiefs. I had Kansas City beating Houston in the AFC championship. Tommy had KC beating Buffalo in the AFC championship. Let's start with, we'll save the NFC East for last, all right? So let's start with the NFC North. You go first on the North. Okay. Very competitive, like you said, I'm not sure Minnesota is in that mix, but the Bears, the Packers, and who's the other team?

Well, the Lions and the Packers and the Bears are kind of, they're very close. They're all kind of mixed together. I'm a big Ben Johnson fan. I think the Bears are going to wind up winning that division. The Chicago Bears win the NFC North for the second straight year for Tommy. You know, in going through like the preseason power rankings from last year and identifying how low all of these division winners and the two Super Bowl participants were, the other part of last year's division predictions, like the consensus, seven of the eight division winners last year were not predicted to win the division. In fact, not even close. like New England, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Denver.

Denver's probably the team that was closest, you know, because it was either them or KC, but the chargers were in the mix as well. Chicago was certainly not picked to win the division. Carolina not even close. Seattle not even close. Philly was the only team as a consensus prediction division winner that won their division. think about that when making these predictions because although it's I mean I'm looking at my AFC I had New England

but I didn't have Buffalo. I'd Pittsburgh they're not a favorite I'd Houston Kansas City I don't know um all right you put Chicago in the NFC North I'm a big fan of the Packers I know that they're going to be a little bit you know behind to start the season the Josh Jacobs situation is obviously still up in the air no Micah Parsons to start the year. I think they're a well-coached football team. I think they've got weapons for Jordan Love. It will be interesting to see what happens at running back without Jacobs,

because Jacobs was a big part of what they did. But I think this could be a breakout year for a guy like Golden, who ended up playing well in the playoff games. Defensively, they have some studs defensively. I think this is a Packers kind of a year. It's not going to surprise me if it's the Lions. I actually think those two teams are a bit separate from Chicago and then Minnesota. So I'm going Green Bay.

I'm going Green Bay in the NFC North to win that division. I actually think this could really be a big season for Jordan Love. I'm a big fan of Jordan Love. I thought he played exceptionally well in some of their big games last year. and they just didn't get it done defensively in the playoff game against Chicago or defensively in the game that he left that Malik Willis came into against Chicago towards the end of the regular season. Jordan Love is the real deal to me.

I'm going with him and the Packers in the NFC North. I'll go first on the NFC South. I've been talking about this team since the end of last year. And yes, they've got some injuries to start this season with Al-Safc. Calvin Camara down and a couple of potential offensive line injuries. But I like the Saints. I like Kellyn Moore as an offensive coordinator and head coach. I really like Brandon Staley as a defensive coordinator.

They have defensive talent, although it looks like Cameron Jordan's out for the opener. Watch Chase Young this year. He really came on last year. and a healthy Chase Young now at 27 years old looks like a legit upper tier pass rusher. They've got some real talent in the secondary. They added Caden Ellis from Atlanta. I really like the Saints in that division.

I could see the Bucks for sure. And Carolina's, you know, that team came on and offensively there's some things to like about Carolina. But I'm going to go Saints in the NFC South. What about you, Tom? Wow. I can't make that leave. I'm going with the Bucks.

Baker Mayfield just sign a contract extension. He's a happy camper. I think they're a well-coached team. I don't think they're going to go anywhere beyond that, but I have the Bucks win in that division. I think Ruben Bain Jr. is going to be an absolute superstar in the league, and I think Washington's going to rue the day that they passed on him,

and that's the Bucks defense is where they've got to take a big step this year. And Baker Mayfield's got to be healthy too. He's got to play healthy. I could certainly see the Bucks winning that division. And by the way, I could see the Bucks becoming a really good team this year. But I got to pick something that is outside the box because, again, seven of the eight division winners last year were not predicted to win the division. NFC West, Tommy, go ahead. Well, I'm going with the all-world Los Angeles Rams.

You know, they're obviously very well coached. Aaron Donald is, you know, coming back to a defense that's already going to be good. And Matthew Stafford just, you know, seems to keep going on as a top-level quarterback. I like the Rams to win the West. very competitive West. It's hard not to pick the Rams. I mean, if they, you know, that's a team too, though,

that if Matt Stafford went down, the most talented team in recent memory would probably be a 500 team or, you know, an 8, 9, 9, and 8 team at best with a rookie backup in Ty Simpson. Yeah, it's the Rams. It's absolutely the Rams and the NFC West for me. I think Seattle is really dangerous defensively,

the way, as we were sitting here recording, there is a bit of an update on Sam Darnold. The x-rays showed no fracture of the hip, so that's a good sign, but there is an MRI scheduled for later today. But I'm going Rams as well, and I think the Rams will end up being the one seed in the NFC playoffs. I mean, look, if you said take the field or the Rams, of course I would take the field in the NFL. You know, we're going on something like, I think it's like 12 out of the last 13 NFL seasons. The favorite to win the Super Bowl did not win the Super Bowl. And they are the favorite to win the Super Bowl.

But I think that they are awfully, awfully good everywhere. They improved everywhere they needed to improve on defense. Special teams is really what cost them in the two Seattle games. They gave up the Shaheed punt return, which turned around that late season Thursday night game, which cost them the one seed and the division, and then the muffed punt return in the NFC champion. cost them, you know, a trip to the Super Bowl. But I got the Rams winning the NFC West.

The NFC East, Tommy. I'll go first. My 10 and 7 Washington franchise is going to win the NFC East. It's going to come down to a game against the Cowboys in week 18 at home for the division. And Washington will win that game. They'll finish 10 and 7. They'll actually tie Dallas at 10 and 7, but win the tiebreaker somehow and win the division with a 10 and 7 mark. And I think Washington's 10 and 7 mark will be good for the three seed. I see Green Bay is the two after the Rams. Washington is the three. New Orleans as the four.

Washington, surprise, wins the NFC East at 10 and 7. Okay. Remember, I picked him two years ago to go 10 and 7 and make the playoffs. I believe in this quarterback. You say there's no shame. I mean, I have picked losing records for this team many, many times over the course of the many, many years you and I have been doing this together. So, yes, he has changed my outlook going into each season, as long as there's a possibility, he's going to be the quarterback for. 17 games.

Yeah. Well, I know everyone seems to want to bury the Eagles that, you know, they're due for a breakdown that Nick Siriani is, it's a little bit insane that they have a new offensive coordinator again. And, you know, there's always the turmoil going on behind the scenes with the Eagles, but their defense is too good, and they've got Seekwan Barkley. and I have the Eagles win in the NFCE. I don't think there's a lot of anti-Philadelphia.

I feel that way. So you've gotten some of that from me. It's just a weird feeling that I have that their runs and Siriani's run is, I mean, he's been down to his last game or two, I think, a few times, or at least it seems that way. And they've done their best work when their backs have been to the wall. But I don't know. I don't think the, you know, Sean McVeigh, Kyle Shanahan, Sean Mannion offense is a good fit for Jalen Hertz.

I think he has to be a quarterback that lines up in the shotgun and plays dual threat football. I think that's when he's at his best. I think Jaden has much more versatility in terms of offensive scheme. All right, my three wild cards in the NFC are Detroit. Tampa and San Francisco. I know that there is actually discussion about the 49ers taking a major step back because of the injuries in recent years, the age of their best players. But I saw a team at the end of last year with Brock Purdy with some players on the field that looked still really, really capable offensively. And for them, they've just got to be healthy.

You know, they weren't a healthy team last year. and it showed up getting absolutely blasted twice by Seattle in week 18 and then in the first round of the playoffs or the divisional round after they beat Philadelphia. But I still like the 49ers. I love the coaching staff, obviously. I like their best players. I've got them as the last wild card in the NFC. So Detroit, Tampa, and the 49ers are my wild cards.

What about yours? So you're keeping the Seahawks out at a wild card. Not only that, I'm keeping Dallas at 10 and 7 out. And Philadelphia out. Yes. Yeah, I am. Wow. Well, I've got the Seahawks, the 49ers, and the Cowboys as my wildcard team.

Okay. No surprise is there. My, well, let's let's let you make the NFC championship matchup, and then which team wins the NFC championship game. Okay. I have the Rams. and Seahawks in the NFC championship game

with the Rams winning it. I've got the Rams over the Packers. So I've got Washington as the three seed and I think they'll win a game, but then they'll probably go to Lambo and lose in the divisional round. I've got Rams over Packers in the NFC championship game.

That means we both have the exact same Super Bowl matchup. Rams and Kansas City. I've got the Rams winning the Super Bowl, beating Kansas City for their second Super Bowl at SoFi in their home stadium this decade.

Rams over Chiefs is my pick. What about you? Say it, but I have the Rams over to Chiefs too. Okay. Not a good sign. Last year, we both had Washington in the Super Bowl. I know. But we have the exact same matchup.

Yeah. I would still take the field against the Rams because you'd get, you know, the price would be, actually the price might be better on the Rams against the field in the NFL. But man, if Stafford stays upright and healthy and with Miles Garrett, Aaron

Donald, Trent McDuffey, that defense, those offensive weapons, keep Pooka away from any of his serious relationships and out of bars, keep him away from bars. And

and booze. And he's one of the best. You can't keep NFL players from self-destructing if they're determined to do it. Jordan Love is my MVP of the league. What about you? Well, look, I think this is an easy one. If the Chiefs make it to the Super Bowl, Pat Mahomes is the MVP. Okay.

I mean, I just think that that would be a lock. Yeah, I mean, it's crazy that I didn't say Stafford, were Mahomes since I've got them both in the Super Bowl. But I like Jordan Love at this point in this career to really step up and be an elite, elite level quarterback. All right. Let's finish up the show with your pick Sunday in week one, Washington and Philadelphia. We'll do that after these words from a few of our sponsors.

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DCVIP at mybooky.com and mybooky.orgie.orgie. On tonight's game, by the way, no smell test pick and no smell test on the college game tonight either, which is Miami and Florida A&M. I think the canes are like 58 point favorites in that game. So no smell test picks tonight. Last night, Tommy, I gave New England out as like if you have to play the game. The game went off pretty much three, three and a half everywhere. So people either won it if they had three and a half or pushed it at three.

I don't love either side tonight. I thought I was going to love the 49ers heading into this game because of all the Rams talk. But the truth is the action is, you know, not split. There's more public action on the Rams, but not by an overwhelming number. And there is sharp action on both sides. But if I had to play tonight's game,

and again, like I said on yesterday's show, I know some of you have to play. when there is a stand-alone primetime game. If you have to play it, I'd play the Niners plus the three and a half. But no official smell test pick. I'll have a full smell test for tomorrow's show. All right.

Sunday, week one, at the link in Philadelphia. Two new offensive coordinators in the game. a new defensive coordinator in the game against an old, you know, old salt Vic Fangio on defense. Week one, I mean, I say this every year. It's hard to go on week one results as a major predictor. Last year, the Patriots got beat by the Raiders at home in week one and went on to go 14 and 3 while the Raiders went 3 and 14. Every week one, every season, you see odd results. With that said, I know that's not going to.

to influence your pick one way or the other. You've done great analysis. You've had some real information provided to you. So go ahead. Give me your Washington, Philadelphia, week one pick, your first of the year. Well, it was exhausting the work I put in. Yeah. Okay, for this pick.

The work I put in for all these picks was exhausting. But I think I have a clear-headed vision of how the game will unfold, and I have Philadelphia winning 31-24. So a competitive game, close game. Yes, a competitive game with Jaden Daniels throwing three touchdowns and three interceptions. Oh, wait, you just said he's... You just said he's incapable of having a three-interception game.

I know, I'm kidding about the interception game. Has he ever had a three-interception game? No, he hasn't. He had two in 20s. 24, actually. One, I think, against the Packers, and I forget who the other one was against. Okay.

And one against a Cowboys. Okay. But he's never had a three interception. Didn't he have two interceptions against the Eagles? I think Washington had five turnovers in that Eagles game when they came back to beat Philly. I need to look that up. He had to have thrown two picks in that game. Is that what you? Did you say Philadelphia?

I think I did. You think you did. That was 30 seconds ago. How could I remember? I know. I guess you did say Philadelphia. That's correct. He threw two picks against Philly in the game in which he threw five touchdowns, and they came back to win. And he threw two picks against the Cowboys at home in that game in which they threw, you know, he threw the 80s. six-yard touchdown pass to Terry and then what's his face? Cybert missed the extra point.

That was a wild game. Me not remembering what I said or you not listening to me what I said. You know, for whatever reason, I thought you didn't say Philadelphia. And I was in the midst of looking up through his career to see if he had had a three-interception game, which you are correct. so far, and he's not played a lot of NFL football at this point, but he has not had a three-interception game. But you've got him with a three-touchdown game,

and will there be any picks on Sunday? Not from him. Not from him. Okay. No. There may be turnovers, but it won't be from him because he doesn't do that. 31 to 24. Tommy has Philadelphia winning the opener.

All right. Anything else? Busy prediction week. You did, you know what? Your preparation, I think, paid off. Nice job. Well, thank you. Thank you.

It's nice to get a pat on the back and be recognized for all the hard work I did. I'll tell you what, if you could take that pat on the back and put it in your little office, you would do that in the form of a plaque or a statue, wouldn't you? All right. We are done for the day. I'll be back tomorrow with a full football Friday, will include Keys to a Win over Philadelphia. My prediction, Jay Gruden will be on the show.

He's going to do Fridays again this year during football season, and I'll have smell test picks as well. See you, Tommy. See you, boss.