The Kevin Sheehan Show - No Surgery, JD5 Week to Week

Episode Date: September 25, 2026

Kevin opened with reaction to the breaking news from this morning that Jayden Daniels will not be getting surgery and will not be put on the Injured Reserve List. Kevin also previewed and picked the Washington-Seattle game. Jay Gruden jumped on with thoughts on Daniels along with his Washington-Seattle outlook and his "NFL Lock of the Week". Kevin finished up the show with a whopping 19 "Smell Test" picks. Exclusive High Roller bonus designed for bettors who want more firepower for this season. Double your money all the way up to $5000. Minimum deposit $1500. Use my promo code “DCVIP” at https://www.mybookie.ag/signup/?affid=3910. Download the app today and use code SHEEHAN to get $150 instantly in Lineups if you win your first $5 Lineup! “PrizePicks. Run Your Game.” Join Thrive Market today during their 25% off Healthy Reset Sale now through September 19th! PLUSget $30 off your first 2 orders when you use my link ThriveMarket.com/sheehan. Join the millions who are already banking fee free with America’s #1 Choice forBanking. Head to Chime.com/sheehan. If you want to try Momentous Signature Spec Creatine, head to livemomentous.com and use codeSHEEHAN for up to 35% off your entire first order. Get 20% off your first order at www.FastGrowingTrees.com with code [Sheehan]. For the best tacos in the DMV eat https://surfsidedc.com/.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it, but you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Sheehan Show. He is Kevin. I mean you have a lot of questions regarding Jaden, and I know Adam also spoke on the radio this morning and some other record, so Jaden won't be placed on IR and is week to week, and that is great news.

I have more info to share on that, what it looks like as we get into next week. Dan Quinn, with confirmation of Newsweek. had already heard, but the news we were all hoping to hear, or at least most of us were, Jaden Daniels won't be getting surgery, won't be put on IR, he is week to week. The show's presenting sponsor is always, Window Nation, 86690 Nation, windownation.com, if you need new windows. Adam Peters really was the one that broke the news that Jaden wouldn't be getting surgery, wouldn't be put on injured reserve.

He did it on the junkies radio show this morning at about 8.30 a.m. This is what it sounded like. Adam, I don't know how much you can talk about it, but is there anything you can give us on how his appointments went with the specialists across the country and where we stand with him and as possible an I are? Hopefully it's not a season-ending surgery deal, but can you give us anything on that? Yeah, I mean, I think we're still, he just got back.

late last night and the guys are meeting with him this morning and we met with doctors, like we said, all over the country. And he was very thorough and we really got a lot of good opinions. So now it's just a matter of, you know, sitting down and thinking about what the best course of action is. But as of right now, surgery is not on the table and we haven't discussed IR. So it's just a matter of how we're going to get him back on the field. And, you know, that's still, you know, to be determined.

Adam Peters on 1067 the fan on the junkies show this morning. That really sparked what would become a flurry of reports and news related to Jaden Daniels and his elbow. Shortly after Peters made that statement on the junkies radio show, Schefter reported, quote, Commander's quarterback Jaden Daniels will not be placed on injured reserve. Sources confirmed to him and Ian Rappaport that that, was the case. He wrote, after imaging on his dislocated left elbow was evaluated and multiple specialists were consulted, the consensus is that Daniels now will be considered week to week.

Both Daniels and the commanders say they are aiming for him to return as soon as possible. And then John Kime put together a story, and Kime actually had additional information. in his story, where a source told John that they've been encouraged the doctors were and the team and Daniel's team by the condition that his elbow is in even after a second occurrence. Albert Breer then reported the following. Albert Breer from Monday morning quarterback. Commander's quarterback, Jaden Daniels, traveled to New York and Los Angeles this week and met with multiple specialists in both places, leading to his and the team's decision to go forward

with the plan to forego surgery and bring Daniels back in the coming weeks. He'll wear a brace over his left elbow. He's week to week and head coach Dan Quinn's only ruled him out for the Seattle game. The commanders go to London to play the Colts, in week four and the team will have to make a decision soon on whether or not to bring Daniels with them. They actually leave on Tuesday night. That was, I think, pretty close to a summary

of everything that was said and reported this morning. The bottom line is it's great news. Jaden, the injury, perhaps because of the nature of the injury, It wasn't as an orthopedic surgeon who joined me on my radio show today for the second time this week. He said, look, they probably got in with the MRI and imaging and realized that while it was dislocated, there wasn't a lot of worsening of the original injury. And that may be a result of the fact that he just did, you know, he put his arm down there to support himself. It wasn't like there was a 290-pound lineman chasing him down and fall.

on him as he dislocated the elbow. I think there's a chance, and I said this on the podcast last night. I said just a hunch, but I think the giant game, he may be back. And now I have to say that I feel confident about that, but he might even be back next week in London. Now, you know, there's also a possibility that what, we have in the way of reporting and discussion is truly what it is for right now in this moment and they are taking it week to week and maybe they want more time between the injury and him

coming back and we'll look at after the bye week. But I don't think that's going to happen. At this point, when you say week to week, it's at least one week. You know that. They haven't referred to it as day to day yet. Maybe that happens next week or when the team gets back from London. We shall see. But I think incredible news. The orthopedic surgeon that I had on the radio show this morning also said, if he does it again wearing the brace and they do surgery at that point,

it's a three to six month recovery. He also thought there's a pretty good chance at the end of the season. If he doesn't dislocate it again or doesn't reagravate it again, that they may opt for surgery. when the season's over anyway. But the season is still in play. Got to get better performances, though, from the defense starting Sunday against Seattle. There was another Dan Quinn soundbite from his press conference that I wanted to play,

because I thought it was an interesting answer, the way he answered it very quickly. But he was asked by one of the guys on the beat about whether or not the record, Owen 2, with Seattle coming to town, had anything to do with the no surgery, no IR decision. Here was the exchange. How much did the state where the team is now being O and 2 and obviously, you know, trying to make up ground in a division and things that nature, how much is that factor into his decision not to have surgery?

None. Just like, as always, man, like the help of the player. Dan Quinn, with a pretty short and sweet and direct answer to the question about whether or not the current state of the team, O. and two through two weeks with Seattle headed to town, had anything to do with the decision to not get surgery, to not put Jaden Daniels on injured reserve. I know some of you are going to say, She and you're so naive when I say the following. I believe Dan Quinn. This is not the same organization. that we lived with for 24 and a half years. Okay, this is not a shady group of people.

I believe Dan Quinn. I really do. I think that they relied on the medical. I don't think they were going to rely on just Jaden and his inner circle and one to two people that maybe Jaden found in L.A. I think they were going to take in all of the information. And along with Jaden Daniels, they were going to make. a decision that was in the best interest of him and his health.

I do believe that. Look, I think that there's a really good chance that this thing is popping in and popping out pretty easily, but the bottom line is it's his non-throwing elbow, non-throwing arm. He can play high-level football, and if it happens again, they can deal with it then if the damage is real. But this particular injury, I'm guessing, didn't produce the kind of ligament damage or bone damage that would have said surgery makes sense and makes sense now. All right. Jay Gruden's going to join the show as he does every Friday.

Let me give you a heads up on the segment with Jay. We recorded it before the news on Jaden Daniels broke. So just a heads up when you hear. hear Jay talking about Jaden Daniels, and he has a very strong opinion on what should happen with Jaden Daniels. It was before the news broke. Jay will join me in the next segment. I will have in the final segment of today's show, 19 smell test picks.

I'm not lying. 19 smell test picks. How about B. John Robinson last night? Oh my God. I tweeted this out, and I firmly believe this. I think Bejohn Robinson's the best player in the league that's not a quarterback. I think if Miles Garrett were playing, I might have a different opinion, but those of you who have listened to me over the years know how much I love Bejohn Robinson. I think he's been the best running back in the league for a few years.

Last night was such a special performance by a running back. 29 carries 194 yards. He is just incredibly entertaining to watch. His vision, his patience, the way he contorts his body to get through the smallest of openings, the way he seemingly never takes a direct shot, which is Emmett Smith-like. His amazing ability to cut on a dime is almost Barry Sanders-like. like, and then the ability to hit that gear and accelerate with incredible high-end speed. And he's got power.

I think he's better than Gibbs. I think he's better than Derek Henry. I think he's better than Sequin. I think he's the best football player in the NFL that isn't a quarterback. I do. What a performance by the Falcons last night. I leaned Atlanta. I didn't give them out as a smell test pick because they didn't work last night.

There was a very slight public advantage on Green Bay, and the sharp money was really split, even though that line came down. And I did play the Falcons plus four. And it didn't look good early because Pennix Jr. looked like a mess in the first quarter. And then it was, wow, what a performance by Michael Pennix, Jr. coming off his third torn ACL, going back to college, Indiana, et cetera.

18 of 25, after starting one for five, He finished 17 of 20 for 256 yards, 18 of 25 overall, a touchdown, an early pick, an 84.5 QBR. He is a very good thrower of the football. I loved him coming out. I liked him more than May. I liked May, too, but I liked him third behind Jaden and Caleb. He's just got to stay upright. He's got to get the experience.

I think Stefansky is a really good coach. and I think he's in a spot now. Cleveland's a bad spot to be in, just like Washington used to be a terrible spot to be in. But I think he's in a good spot in Atlanta. They actually have talent. I mean, Drake London is a star number one receiver. And they've got good defensive players. You know who ran the ball really well last night?

Brian Robinson Jr. I mean, the Falcons had 242 rushing yards. The Packers had 17. The Packers right now are injured and they look a mess here early in the season. They cannot protect Jordan Love. He looks frustrated. Their offensive lines are mess defensively. I thought they were going to be a good team even before Micah Parsons got back.

They're not very good right now. They gave up 242 yards on the ground. Atlanta, 35 to 14 over the Packers. last night. This league, people, it tricks you. Every week is a new week. It really is. All right, let's get to my keys to what would be an upset win Sunday in the home opener against Seattle, a team that right now you could easily make the case looks like the best team in the league, certainly looks like the best defense in the league. Two things before I get to Keyes to a win. The injury report is out and five players are now officially out for the game Sunday.

We knew about Jaden Daniels and Nick Cross, but add Sam Cosmi, Frankie Louvo, and Chigacanquo to the list. The list does not include Javan Kinlaw, who practiced in full today. So did everybody else with the exception of Leo Chanel. He was limited, but he was not ruled out. for Sunday. They need him with Louvre down another week. They're going to miss Louvo here. Hopefully he gets back soon, but those groin injuries are never, you know, a one or two week injury. And in the case of a Conquo, the hamstring isn't either. So there you go. For Seattle, by the way, Julian Love, their starting safety. He's out. He's got two picks, I think, on the year.

but everybody else should be, in terms of their significant players, should be a go. The other thing to mention before I get to the keys to an upset win is weather could be a factor Sunday. You know, we've got this Nor'easter. It really depends on how far west the storm comes, but there's going to be wind at the very least, but it could be windy and rainy. Maybe that helps us. Sam Darnold, Drew Locke, no decision as of the recording of this podcast on who will start. Let me get to my keys.

Washington beats Seattle if. Number one is they have to get takeaways. Sunday's a game you cannot win, I don't think, without plus two or better in the turnover margin. That means they have to get at least two takeaways without giving one away. If they give one a way to be plus two, they got to get three. This is a game where Seattle has to be in self-destruct mode to a certain degree for Washington to win the game. I like them to cover, but to win the game plus two at minimum in the turnover margin. And then on top of that, you've got to have Seattle commit a bunch of penalties that derail drives, have dropped passes,

that derail drives, miss a field goal or a PAT. These are the things that are going to have to happen Sunday. This is a really solid football team, especially on the defensive side of the ball. But then offensively, you've got J.S.N. Rashid Shaheed, Cooper Cup. And Drew Locke, if he's the starter, has been playing at a very high level. When he came in in the game against New England, the kickoff game a few weeks ago to open up the season. and then last week is a starter against Arizona.

We need Seattle to self-destruct in this game. Turnovers, penalties, drop passes, you know, a missed field goal or a missed PAT. I think that's going to be an absolute must. I don't see a game in which Washington wins 20 to 17 or 24 to 21 where neither team turns the ball over. both teams are low in penalties and both teams play a clean game. Seattle's just better right now, player-wise, and probably coaching-wise, as well. Next up on the list, they've got to win the red zone battle. These games come down to if it's going to be a competitive game,

if they get Seattle to self-destruct a little bit, turn the ball over, they've got to hold them to one for four in the red zone, two for five in the red zone. We hope five red zone trips aren't, you know, we don't want that many red zone trips. But something like one for four with Washington going three for five or two for four, or two for three or three for four. You've got to win the red zone battle,

and they've got to kick some field goals when you're scoring more touchdowns. Has to happen. Number four, got to stay on the field offensively. Your best defense has to be your offense, and it's not going to be easy. They are loaded up front, absolutely loaded. Murphy, Leonard Williams, that group in that front seven is nasty. And then they've got Witherspoon and company in the back end.

You've got to stay on the field no matter what it takes. And that means quick game, that means trying to run the football. I don't think they're going to be that successful. But I think if they are running the football, like I said last week, against the Cowboys, I think the quarterback Marcus Mario da has got to be involved in the run game. There have to be some zone reads. There have got to be some big 11-on-11 run plays

where Washington succeeds in the run game. Quick game for sure. And yes, you've got to have Seattle self-destruct a little bit with a penalty, with a late hit, with an off-sides that creates a first-and-five, which will be easier to pick up than a first-in-10. But you've got to be, the best you can be on offense, because that'll be your best defense in this game.

And then I think defensively, the key is limit explosives. It was one of the keys last week. Keep everything in front of you. Shaheed can run by you. JSN can run by you. And then if you're playing that, they can throw underneath to those guys and Cooper Cup as well. But you've got to limit the explosives. You've got to keep everything in front of you.

And then try to succeed in the red zone. Try to get your stops on a condensed field. Those are my keys, but I think the most important one is I don't see a Washington outright win without Seattle contributing with some mistakes on their own. My final score prediction is Seattle wins the game 19 to 14. So I've got Washington covering. Yes, they're going to be in the smell test. 19 to 14, kind of a slog of a game. Maybe the wind will be a factor and will keep some of the big plays down.

But 19 to 14 to go to 0 and 3. And then the Jaden day-to-day watch will begin because they're going to have to make a decision early in the week. As Albert Breer reported, they leave on Tuesday. for London. All right, Jay Gruden, and again, Jay and I recorded this segment before all of the Jayden Daniels news broke. But we'll get to Jay right after these words from a few of our sponsors. Isn't it nice that football's finally back and prize picks knows it, they've brought out their best offer yet. New users who sign up will get $150 in lineups if you win your first $5 lineup. That's right,

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At 86690 Nation, you can also find Windonation at WindowNation.com. Tell them that I told you to reach out. Windonation is a proud partner of Wounded Warrior Project. All right, joining me right now, the former head coach of the Washington Redskins, Jay Gruden. Jay's with me every Friday during football season. Jay is also doing with his brother John the Gruden Family Football Show, which airs as part of the bar school sports menu of shows. Every Wednesday, it comes out on YouTube, so check that out.

All right, let's get to it, Jaden Daniels. If the team and Jaden and his inner circle right now, are considering between surgery, which would cost them, let's just say the year, or bracing it up and playing with some level of risk, which of those two would you be in favor of? Well, I'd be a favor of playing. I mean, this is a left elbow. I know any injury is a serious injury, but I think he can play, man.

I'd brace it up and go, and if you need to have surgery after the season, I'd do it then. but it's not effective as movement, it's not affecting his arm, it's not affecting really anything. So brace it up and let's tee it up and let's go play. All right, I didn't know what your answer would be, but I would have guessed brace it up and play. But now that I do know what your answer is, I want to ask you about the limitations that may be in play if Jaden's playing with a brace on his left arm, left elbow. And whether or not David Blow might have to accommodate for that. And I thought of one play, Jay, an outside zone handoff going to the right where the quarterback has to take the snap, use his left arm, left hand, reach it out as far as it can go to either make the handoff or to sell a playfake for a play action throw or a bootleg.

Have you thought about what they might have to do playbook-wise? and specific to that play, am I right or wrong about whether or not that would be limiting? Yes, for sure. You couldn't really do the outside zone to the right, okay? You could probably tighten it up and run mid-zone to the right, and your play actions would be off mid-zone or tight zone. So they're not a very good outside zone running team anyway, so it's not like, oh, my God, we've got to run outside zone stretch,

otherwise we're not going to be successful. I haven't seen it don't do it yet. You know, we can toss that if you need to, too, too. So I just brace it up. I know it's up to the doctors is up at Jaden, ultimately, and this is the second time it's happened. But what hell, if you're losing an outside zone play and you get Jayden Daniels, I'll lose the outside zone play with Jayden Daniels.

Is there any other play? Because that's the one that came to my mind. And you're right, they haven't run a lot of it. But I think their intention this year was to be more of a zone run team inside outside zone. But am I thinking about the only play that would be impacted or are there others? I don't think there are any others, really. I know Kurt Warner played with the left brace on his arm, and he just handed off with his right hand and not his left hand.

I don't know if you remember that or not. Yeah, but that's kind of awkward, isn't it? Oh, it's for sure awkward. But would you rather have him hand off with his opposite hand or play with Marcus Mariotta? Let's go. I mean, this is Dan Quinn. Dan Quinn is on the feet.

He's kind of hot, right? If I'm Dan Quinn, I'm saying, shit, break that up. I mean, we need you. Or maybe he plays Marioo and he has him of surgery. you might buy them another year. I don't know. But, yeah, I just, I don't know. As a competitor, you know, I played for a while.

I just played the arena league in college football. There's a 100% chance I'm bracing it up and playing. There's no way am I going to get surgery if I don't have to. Yeah, don't you think Jayden's thinking the same thing? I hope so. That's what you want on a quarterback. I'm out there at all cost battling. I mean, I don't know really enough about the stupid little elbow injury, really.

I mean, I don't know. Surgery is truly going to cure the fact that he's, skinny guy. I mean, maybe he needs to get surgery, get bigger muscles on his left arm. I don't know, but I just know that Washington needs them. They're 0 and 2 right now, probably getting ready to go 0 and 3. So the sooner the better because they still have 14, 13 games, 12 games left when he comes back and there's a lot of ball to play. Look, I'm with you. But, you know, there are people and maybe even people in the organization that would say if there's any long-term risk, if he ends up doing it again, because apparently he is now more susceptible to doing it again once you've done it twice.

The odds apparently I've had, we've all had orthopedic surgeons on shows this week. And they've all said the same thing with respect to, you know, once it happens a couple of times, you are more susceptible to it. And, you know, the long-term risk could be that it's a harder surgery, a longer recovery. so with respect to a guy in his third year that looks like he could be an elite level quarterback for 10 years, you wouldn't take any level of caution. And you said, I don't know what the elbow is about. And let's just strap it up and go. But don't you think organizationally they've got to think about that in terms of potentially protecting the player from himself?

Yes. That's why you have medical people on your staff to help you at these. decisions and you have to have multiple probably opinions to go along with it because one guy might say a different thing from the other guy and then you're like, what the hell man, what doctor am I listening to for God's sake? But it's a left elbow

Kevin, I mean, good God, brace it up. And if it happens again, and he's more susceptible to the next time, then you get the surgery in the offseason or you get the surgery after week 10 if it happens again. He's not a golfer. He's a football player. He's a quarterback. He throws his right hand and he runs really, really fast

and he's very active. So it's an injury that I think people need to just relax. I mean, let the guy play. He's 25, 26 years old. He's going to recover. He's going to be fine. Even if it happens again, he'll be fine. I'm with you, and God, I hope that that is the solution,

because how good was he in the first half? He was awesome, man. I just hate the fact they try to run a reverse pivot option on fourth and one with two seconds ago and a half. I mean, my God, I don't like bash and play calling. There's only two play calls,

but I didn't like all. Baltimore Ravens had third one with eight minutes ago in the game and they threw a bomb to the guy that Washington cut. Right. Instead of Hannah-on-Paul off the Jerry. Chris Moore. And I didn't like the Chris Moore, and I did not like the reverse pivot option play at the one-yard line

on the last play to half because we just had a 15-play drive. It would have been 17 to 13 if we kick it, and we got the ball coming out for the second half. Let's get some points and reward our guys for that grind of a drive that was. I mean, that was awesome. And then the play you're going to call, you're going to reverse out and option off the end and arc your tight end. I mean, the end would have crushed, Jay, and anyway. But anyway, I haven't given it off my chest.

Okay. These guys are battling their ass off. So I have this guy, Jay, his name's Steve Suter. He's one of the greatest punt returners in the history of college football. He still holds a bunch of punt return records. He played at Maryland in the early 2000s. And he comes on every week. He does kind of the film.

breakdown that Cooley used to do with me on the show for several years. And he is absolutely convinced that that was not a sprint option. And he pointed out several things. He said, number one, every single lineman is making sure that they don't go downfield. He's like, if you look at every single lineman that isn't eligible, they are making it a point not to go downfield so that they would be called as ineligible linemen downfield. field. Number two, he said, the path that Rashad White takes, he's looking immediately after the snap. He's looking for a lateral. He's convinced that Rashad White was going to throw the ball. To whom is the question, but we decided that maybe Jaden was going to peel out the backside and he was going to throw it across the field to Jaden,

and he was going to either run it in or he was going to get to the end zone, and he was going to throw it to Jaden in the end zone. Did you, did you know, I mean, Quentin? said sprint option, but like you just said, they turn that end loose with him under center. And yes, he could read the end. Here's the play, Kevin. They arc the tight ends and block support. Jaden reverses out and he pitches it off that end. If that end goes up the field with Rashad White, he keeps it runs in the end zone.

Right. If he attacks Jaden, he pitches it, Rashad White did take a path too quick. He should have stepped to his left first to try to hold the linebackers and then go out. but that's the only thing I can think of if they're going to let that end go free. I mean, why were the linemen not blocking run? They were protecting the inside gaps. I know the left guard up who stepped on them was making sure that they got no penetration with the noseguard

so we could get the option straight down the line. I mean, what else could it be? They let the end go loose. Right. Unless they were just going to throw a flare past the Rashad White by himself. Maybe that was it. Maybe he was going to catch it. but why would he reverse out?

Well, my other point on that was typically in sprint option or any kind of option, you don't run it typically unless you're an academy running triple option from under center. You're usually in pistol or shotgun. Yeah, there's a goal line play that people used to run the quarterback to the two tight end side and the back right behind you. You reverse out, you arc your tight ends for the corner and the first support, and you pitch it off the end. If the end goes up field, you keep it.

If not, you pitch it. Right. I thought they were running that. Okay. The only thing I could think of, because they let the end go loose and he was reversing out, that's the only thing I can think of. Let me ask you, and you alluded to it, but I want to just be clear, what would you have done with three seconds to go?

Kick the field goal or go for the touchdown? Being that we had the ball in the second half, and our defense just got a big stop before that, they were fired up, right? Do you remember that? I kind of remember that. I barely remember that. The only one. But they had some juice going in.

We had a 15-played drive. I'm taking points, and we got the ball. Had we been kicking off to start the third quarter, we hadn't got to stop yet. I'd probably have gone for it. But they just got to stop. We had a 15-play drive. I want to reward our team.

Hey, at 17, 13, boys, we got the ball to start the second half. Let's go get the lead and kick these guys ass. You know, that's what I would have done. And they did take it down in the third quarter and scored, but they called that Diami Brown was in the end zone. It was a one knee-e equals two feet of a touchdown. I still can't believe. I don't understand that for the life of me, how they blew that on the replay.

It doesn't make any sense. I have another. I go to the replay, and Dean Landino's in the booth. I know. He said, when we come back from commercial, they'll be lining up to kick the extra point. And by the way, that would have made it 17-17. I don't know how the rest of the game would have gone, but it would have been, it would have been better if it had been 17-17 than 17-13 after the field goal.

So one other thing about the end of half sequence. I've seen it happen a few times. It is high risk, but sometimes, you know, very, very rarely. A team will just take the risk that the other team is playing pass on those first few downs when you know you can't get tackled in bounds or the clock runs out. And I've seen it very rarely, but I've seen it before. when a coach has just said to hell with it, if we're going to spread you out,

you think we're throwing because we would never run the ball and take that risk. And on the next to last play, with eight seconds to go, or yeah, eight seconds, just run zone read or run Jaden on a quarterback draw. And just, have you ever thought about running the football on a down you shouldn't run it on in that end of half or end of game situation?

obviously timeouts matter you've got to make sure that if you do run it if you don't have any timeouts you have time to clock it or have a play ready right away that you can run maybe just... No, I'm giving you this scenario you've got no timeouts and a run that gets stopped is going to end the half, but you know that they're not playing run.

They're expecting... Oh, yeah, okay. We ran a quarterback draw with Cole McCoy. I think it's similar situation against Dallas on Monday night. Okay. So yeah, quarterback draw is a great option. and you can also have a run called with like a bubble screen or some kind of can play if they all loaded up in their playing run.

They give you an all-out blitz. You have to have an audible or a can to another play just in case. But if you get these guys play, they're two safety-looking. They're doubling this receiver, double-miss-receiver. They have a light box. A run is probably better chance to score than a pass anyway. Yeah, I mean, I guess the point would be if you're planning on going for a one-down with three-sense, seconds to go, touchdown or get stop, no points.

Of course, you want the opportunities. You don't want to waste an opportunity, but you would really kind of trick them if you ran it on second down with eight seconds to go because they wouldn't be expecting it. Yes, 100%. In fact, we had a defensive coordinator, which is Rob Ryan. Yeah.

He was convinced he was going to stop the past because most teams weren't going to run the ball. is 100% going to load up and double this guy. I have two safeties and make sure that it was impossible for him to throw the ball in because most coaches, coordinators are like, they're going to throw it. They're not going to run it. That was his theory. What was he like?

I forgot that he was on the staff. Yeah. Rob was great, man. He was a funny guy, really nice guy. Yeah, yeah. I'd like them better when he was at No one. I was a coordinator because we... I know, you torched him.

Got him great. But no, he was a good football coach. He's a good guy. Yeah, I'll tell you what the score was. Do you remember what the score was? Because I do. I don't remember. 47 to 14.

Just absolutely annihilated the Saints with Drew Brees that day. And I think that was his last, I believe that may have been his last day. I think he got fired the next week. Am I right about that or not? Yeah. He did. He did.

He did. Yeah. It wasn't as. was their team's best day. Yeah. All right. It's two games, but other than the one stop, Dallas scored on seven of eight possessions in the game and punted one time. How concerned are you about the defense here very early in the season?

Well, now the Ken Law is out. I'm very concerned. I mean, the depth is now limited on the defensive line. The secondaries and shambles right now. I don't know what they're going to do. I don't think Stanisdrell has any confidence. getting yelled out by his coach in the middle of the game for backpedaling too far and giving up a, you know, a 12-yard hitch route.

I'm not concerned about Resul Douglas. I'm concerned about Robertson back there. I don't think there's any really thing to be positive about the secondary right now. So very concerned there, Kevin, very, very, very concerned. Yeah. They play Jackson Smith and Digba today or this week. So they go from CD-LAM. Oh, thank God, C.

C.D.L.L.A.m. Oh, thank God. C. C. not here. Hey, welcome Jackson Smith and Jigba. And he goes all over the place. I know. He'll play outside. He'll play inside. He's awesome. Yeah, and then by the way Rashid Shaheed can run by the entire team. Jogging.

Oh my God. So all right. So, I mean, Fabian Moreau hasn't played one defensive snap yet. And he played for Durante Jones last year. Well, I know he is, and you coached him. I know. But I'm surprised, given that he's probably the

most familiar, and Durante Jones the most familiar with him, and he brought him in. I think we're, we saw Sanris still's snap count reduced Sunday. At what point do you just say, we can't do this anymore? Well, I think I'm convinced that he's a nickel. I wouldn't put him outside ever. I know he got away with it when we went to the NFC championship game. He had pretty good because we had injuries. He was forced out there, but he's a nickel, in my opinion.

I think I'd let Resul, which they did, they moved him inside at Nicol when he was in 11 personnel. I think you just leave him there. And if it's a two-receiver set with two tight-eddeads or whatever, play Rezuel, Fabian, Robertson, whoever you want to play. Get him off the corner spot, in my opinion. By the way, you mentioned Kinlaw. He's not ruled out as of the time that we are recording this here on Friday. But if he is, that is a big loss. he's become a good player for them, don't you think?

Oh, he's a good player, man. He's got the size of, he's always been an underachiever, of my opinion, because he has a size, of speed, the foot quickness, the hands, strength to be a dominant player. I mean, not just a good player. He should be a dominant player. Look at him when he walks into a room. This guy's a giant man, strong, quick. He's got every intangible you want for a defense of the limo,

but he's never been a dominant player from snap to snap for whatever. he just plays too high a lot of times. All right. How do they beat the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday? I hope they got a quarterback's really rusty coming back, Sam Darnold. If he plays, he's really, really, really rusty. It turns the ball over a lot, which in Sam Darnold's history, he's had some turnover issues.

That's why he bounced around for many, many teams. So that's the biggest hope. I get pressure on them to force him in the turnovers. If that does not happen, there is no chance that they beat Seattle because Seattle can beat you on defense a lot of different ways. They can rush four or five. They play great covers. They're very sound.

They're a good tackling team. They get you in third down. They can rush a hell out of the passers. They have great pass covers. I mean, they're just very, very sound. That's why they're Super Bowl champ. So you've got to force turnovers. If you don't get any turnovers, you have no chance.

Totally with you on that. And this team hasn't had one takeaway, not even close to a takeaway in the first two games. And they were second to last last year in takeaways. And in the first year with Quinn and the defense, they were 26th in the league in takeaways. I can't believe that just the random opportunity doesn't present itself more often with this team. It seems like it never does. I know, man.

If I'm a fumble a snapper. Have a ball bounce off a lineman's head or something like that. I mean, the ball's got to bounce funny one time in the commander's favor, doesn't it? I mean, the Chargers put the ball on the ground six times last week against the Raiders. Now, they only lost one of them, but it's like the ball's never even on the ground against our team. Never. All right. So it's turnovers or it's ugly.

Got it. All right. Let's take a quick break. We'll come back with Jay, get his thoughts on Bejohn Robinson, the performance last night. We'll go around the league a bit and we'll get Jay's lock of the week. We'll do that. After these words from a few of our sponsors. Hey guys, I want to welcome a new sponsor to the podcast.

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slash sheen. That's chime.com slash sheen. Sign up now. It only takes a few minutes. Chime is a fintech, not a bank, banking services, and chime card provided by Chim's bank partners. Qualifying direct deposits required. Terms and limits apply. Go to chime.com slash disclosures for details. If you listen to this show regularly and you haven't done it, you don't mind doing it. Rate and review this podcast. It's really easy to do, especially on Apple and Spotify, and it helps us out a ton. Following the show is big for us as well. Just hit the plus button or the follow. button. We continue with Jay Gruden. Is Bijon Robinson other than quarterbacks, Jay, the best player in the league? Well, he's fun to watch. That's why you can't. How the hell can you have two games if you don't get the Redsone one time? I know the quarterback issues, but my God, he's so good. Yes,

I agree with him, Smith and Jigba. There's, yes, I would say Bejohn probably is up. I think Jimere Gibbs is right there with Bejohn, but they're both outstanding players. I mean, can you imagine if you had a back with those receivers with Deshawn and Pierre and Jordan and Kirk at quarterback, if there just had been a back like

Bijjan or Gibbs? Because you just never had a running back. Never. Oh, yeah, Alfred was pretty good when I got here. But I'm talking about in 15 and 16. Yeah, yeah. We had Rob Kelly. Oh, come on. Come on. That Rob

was, I'm talking about like a true dominant back. That would have been unbelievable. But you know what, Jay, you were coaching at a time where they started, and I say they, football people, started to almost minimize very much the running back position, and now it's very much back in vogue. Well, that's because we were very, I was much more interested in the third down back and the matchups out of the backfield in a passing game than the first second down,

back down hillback. I thought those guys you could find a lot easier than the third. third down back like Chris Thompson. Yeah, and you had a good one. That makes sense. Yep. Yes. I know that if you have like an Adrian Peterson in this prime or, you know, somebody on a

Bijon, that's a total difference maker, then yes, I agree. I would love to have them. But if I'm going to err on the side of a two-back rotational-type team, like when Detroit had Montgomery and Gibbs, I would have taken Gibbs, you know, because he's more important than the goal line back, in my opinion. That's kind of way teams thought. You know, back New Orleans kind of started. We did it in Tampa with my brother.

I did it in Cincinnati. We had Ben Jarvis Green Ellison and Giovanni Bernard. I love Giovanni Bernard. I mean, Jim, Jarvis was for first down, dual. Get six yards. Okay, get out. Geo, get in here. Yeah.

You know, so. You know who's become a pretty good third down back in the last few years is Samajai Piron? He has. You know, he's got good hands. That's why we like Somaget because he was pretty good at everything. He got hurt a lot, too, with us. You know, I was like, damn. Right.

Marge are going to be healthy for practice for God's six. But I didn't really think of him as the third down back until we got him, and he started running out. He had really smooth hands and effortless catching the ball and pretty good after the catch. But still, he doesn't have a quick twitch that you want to attack linebackers and run choice routes and all that stuff. Well, I think at Oklahoma, I think he still might hold the record for rushing yards in a game or something like that.

Am I remembering that correctly? Yeah, I think he has it for the entire college football, doesn't he? Yeah, I mean, he'll mix and break it, and then he broke it next day? Yeah, it was like 400 and something yards, right? Yeah, P. Rhine rushed for 427 yards on 34 carries and five touchdowns in 2014 against Kansas. I'm as... I think the week before, Melvin Gordon. Melvin Gordon, a week before. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Joe Mixing. Yeah, Melvin Gordon did it. So how many times did you watch that P. Ryan game against Kansas?

Once. I was like, this is the word. I could rush for 220 against this defense. The holes were ginormous. They were. That's crazy. That's crazy. But he had some other good tape, too. He's a good player. We got him kind of late.

Like, what do we get him in a fourth? Fourth round. Yep, out of Oklahoma. All right. Tell me real or fake, the Raiders. They're playing pretty good, and they don't have their best player playing yet. Brock Bowers. You know, this is a team that had the first pick in the draft, and they're not even

playing their first round drop. And they're 2-0. It's a great job by Clint Kubiak. But I think they're real, really. I think their defense is playing hard. Clint Kubiak's a good play caller. They have an outstanding back, like you mentioned, that's a jent.

They're a hell of a player. So there could be a problem. Minnesota. Are they real, for sure? You know, the quarterback situation is what it is. Let's see what Kyler can do this week, coming back from his concussion. But this defense is ridiculous.

Now, they pressure you like crazy. They don't care. Brian Flores does not care. but he gets matchups. He gets defensive ends on backs. He gets defensive ends running free. Dallas Turner must have been unblocked four times last week in Chicago. I mean, Ben Johnson, I thought would have a much better plan than he did. Got after their ass and they play good coverage behind it, so they're real for sure. Of the O and two teams, I'll give you a couple of them.

Tell me who ends up having a playoff contention season. The Texans, the Chargers. That's right there. You can stop right there. Okay. Texans, yeah. Texans, their defense's elite. And that'll lead into my pick of the week this week.

And, you know, C.J. Stroud is third in league in passing for yards. So he's getting a little bit better. They get Nico Collins back, hopefully. If they can just score some points in the goddamn red zone, and the defense can put their hand in the ground and rush the passer, these guys can win every game. You know what I'm saying? But they just can't get the ball in the end zone.

It's crazy. They're 0-4 against the Bengals, and they played pretty good. Chumar Chase had a circus catch for a touchdown. I mean, I couldn't draw that up or so that ever again. I was one in a million-type catch. So, yeah, I think Houston. Yeah, you know, Stroud, in these two games, I even felt this way last year.

If he doesn't put the ball on the ground, which he does, and he makes some boneheaded plays, I think he's really good. I think he's a good quarterback. What do you think? Yeah, I mean, last year he didn't play very good. The playoff game, he was awful. Terrible. He looked like, he was scared or something like terrible, terrible.

terrible. His first year, I thought he was going to be as good a quarterback as there is in the NFL, and then he just kind of fell off the planet for a little while. He just got to get some confidence, and coaches got to do good job with him of getting up some early, easy completions, and then let the game flow. But yeah, I agree. I think he's got the arm's talent to be great, but right now he's averaged to below average starting quarterback in the league right now. The other quarterback situations, Jackson Darts done for the year, so what does that do to the I don't know. I forget what you thought of the Giants sort of before the season started, but tell me what you did think of them and what you think of them now.

Yeah, their season's pretty much over. Unfortunately, I think they were really going to struggle to make the playoffs. They would have to get to probably 10 and 7, maybe 9 and 8. They'd be a wild card team. But, yeah, I think they're a couple years away. They're very young. They have some talent at some critical positions with Scataboo and most neighbors, but he's coming off an injury.

scataboo's coming off an injury. They got a retooler in secondary still. They got a lot of work to do at New York, and I think it's going to be a while. I think they finish about 5 and 12 this year, possibly, and get Jackson Dart next year, get a couple more players in the secondary to help the pass rush,

and I think they'll be okay. It looked like Caleb Williams, when he was waving to the crowd, being carted off the field, that that was going to be it for the year, but apparently it's not, although he is not going to play Monday night against Philadelphia, but what are the bears without Caleb Williams?

I think any great team with a great quarterback or they're going to struggle. I mean, hell, we were six and three with Alex Smith, and then he got hurt. We went seven and nine. So backup quarterbacks, there's not 32 good starting quarterbacks in the league, let alone backup quarterback,

so it's going to have an impact on your team. Case Keenum probably takes over. He's a veteran guy. Hell, how long ago is the theme that I coached? Like 20 years ago? Yes. He was my starting quarterback. I know he was for the opener in 2018.

He was your starter. And by the way, if he had hit Terry on that one that he missed him on, he would have had about a 400-yard day. I know, man, wide open. Wide open. You could have punted it to him. But anyway, I think it has an impact as long as you can run the ball

and play good defense. You always have a chance. But once you get down and known passing situations, he's got to limit those. You're dead if you have third and eight all day or if you're down by two scores in the second half. No chance. But keep the game close, you got a chance.

It was 2019, I meant to say. Case Keenham that day, 30 of 44 for 380 yards, three touchdowns. We were all introduced to Terry McLorne. You knew about him all offseason and all training camp, but kept him hidden. He had five catches for 125 yards and a touchdown in his first game. But there was another 65 to 70 yarder there that Keenham just missed Terry on in that opener. And it was a close game. Had a chance to win that game, lost it.

And, yeah, 2019 went sideways after that. All right. One in one on your lock of the week. You had the Bears in week one when they scored 59. You had the Bucks last week. I mean, this is the league, Jay. It's impossible. Deshawn Watson can't play.

The Browns are terrible. And he goes 24 of 30 for 238. Two touchdowns, no turnovers. And the Browns won the game at Tampa. outright. By the way, their defense is good again, even without Miles Garrett. Give me your lock of the week this week at one-in-one. Yeah, we did have a two-hour rain delay. I know. But they weren't going to cover.

That shouldn't count. That shouldn't count. Well, they weren't going to cover. That's true. Fuck secondary is god-awful, too, by the way. I'm taking Houston, Texas. We had a long talk about them. They're playing at Indianapolis. Both teams are o' and two, and I'm going to hang on the fact that Houston has an elite quality about their team and that's their defense. And Daniel Jones played much better against the Chiefs, took them to overtime. They actually had a chance to win. They punted with

4th and 5 at the end of the game, and they kicked the field going overtime on 4th and 7. I just said, okay, go ahead, Patrick and beat us. But they're playing better, but I still think Houston and C.J. Strauss is getting better and better, more confident. Houston gets it done at Indianapolis. I think we're getting a point. No, you are giving

a point in a half right now. Houston's a 1.5 point favorite. I actually see some twos and they're creeping up. I ended up giving you Tampa minus 8 last week because after we hung up, I found an 8, so I gave that to you. So if they had 1 by 8, I was going to give you the push.

But yeah, one and a half is the best number we can give. Real quickly, though. So if you were Shane Steichen, you would have snapped the ball on 4th and 8 and gone for it? Yep. He said if he got the look,

he was going to do it. I would would you have done it I mean fourth and three fourth and four but fourth and eight dude

you're gonna take your field goal you're gonna lose I am and you're gonna stop the Patrick Mahoney home and eight no overtime in his career I got it I mean

I got it I got it you're on the road anyway and it's money night football what the hell I would have gone four out four to five at the end of the half but anyway

yeah I thought it was sometimes your your train of thought has to be different if you're playing against Patrick Mahomes, other than if you're playing against Marcus Marioo da, no offense to him or Case Keenham, then maybe kick it, yeah. But you're going against Patrick Mahomes. Understood, understood.

That would have been an interesting situation. And their kicker is one of the best clutch kickers of all time. Yeah, Bucker. Yeah. Houston minus one and a half at Indy is Jay's lock of the week. Thanks, I'll talk to you next week. Yeah, thanks, Kevin. Jay Gruden, everybody.

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It's time for the smell test. The smell test is brought to you by, my good friends at MyBooky. My Booky's offering two terrific promotions right now for those of you that listen to this show and bet on sports. the first promotional opportunity is a $500 betback bonus. And all that means is if your first $500 wager loses, you get credited $500 back into your account. So it's a risk-free bet. A $500 bet-back bonus means your first wager has to be $500 or more.

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This from Vince in Fort Lee, New Jersey, before I get to the picks. I know Fort Lee, New Jersey. It's the last spot before you go over the GW bridge. Vince writes, Kevin, not a Washington fan, but I've been following your smell test picks for years. Don't take this as anything other than a compliment,

but you don't have to downplay your picks every week before you give them out. I know what you're trying to do, but not counting chickens before they hatch isn't going to change the outcomes of the games. You're on a roll. Own it. Oh, Vince, that's good. And you are correct most of the time. I do kind of give some warnings, especially when I'm winning. and I'm on a roll. That is 100% accurate.

When I am on a role like the one I've been on for, you know, what, two and a half years now, something like that. I mean, the smell test has produced winning seasons 15 out of the 20 years that I've done it. And last year was, I think, the third best year at 62.4%. And this year has gotten off to a ridiculous start, 17, 6 and 1.1. through three weeks. That's 73.9% on the season. And Vince, I'm going to do what you're asking me not to do.

I am going to tell all of you that 73.9% is not sustainable. It isn't. I'm not going to go 73.9% for the season, which means I'm going to have some losing weeks coming up. It's just the way probability works, especially over the course of an entire football season. And I do this every week right through the Super Bowl. 73.9% is an absolute, you know, torrid start to the year.

Eight and four last week, seven and one in the NFL last Sunday. That was a card that I loved because everything set up for essentially the opposite of what we saw. in week one. You know, the low number of points in the Minnesota-Chicago game. I mean, Chicago went from 59 to 3. Cleveland looked terrible. They won outright. Tennessee looked terrible.

They almost won outright. I mean, the list goes on and on. The only pro-loss was Miami getting 14, and the 49ers covered the number. But I think the most important thing, Vince, and I appreciate that. And I appreciate the fact that you have paid attention to it as close. as you have. I think the most important thing that I can emphasize, you can ignore when I, you know, undersell the picks. It's not my style anyway to overpromise or oversell, but you can totally ignore because he's right, no matter how I pitch the picks to you, it's not going to change the

outcomes of the games. But I think the most important thing to emphasize in sports betting, you know, especially if you're primarily a football season better, and you're going to take picks from someone like me, is if you're going to do it, understand what the goal is for me. Number one is it's become, you know, a go-to segment during football season for the radio show and the podcast.

That's a big part of it. But these are the games that I truly am interested in, and I play all of them as well. But if you can stay, disciplined and bet the exact same amount on every single one of these plays as a straight bet. You know, not money lining the games, not putting them into parlayes and teasers. And by the way, I get it. You know, 1245 on a Sunday, you start looking at the board and it's like, yeah, I've got these, but man, I'd love to, you know, sort of put them together in a three-team teaser or in a

three-team parlay or a two-team money-line parlay with some of Sheehan's dogs. If you do that, I get it. I've been there, done that many times, but you're just going to increase the possibility of just losing money with picks that may end up being or producing more winners than losers. If you keep it as a straight bet, same amount, you don't wait a game that you like more than another game. And, you know, let's just say you put 300 bucks on, however you guys bet. You get $300 on one play because you like that more than the other one

that you're only going to put $100 on. No, same amount on every game, straight bet, trying to find the minus $110 or better. That's important, too, the amount of juice you pay on a loss. And hope that the picks go for the year, basically 53% or better. And if they go 53% or better, you're going to win money. If they go 62.4% like they did last year, you're going to win a lot of money. And if I were able to maintain 73.9%, it would be, you know, we'd be very, very, very happy. But that is really not sustainable.

I think my best year was 64.something percent. 73.9%. No one. Anybody that tells you that that's what their record was for a season over the course of a long season is lying. All right. With all of that said, I really need to underplay what I'm about to give you because the board looked really good to me.

So many games, Saturday and Sunday. No games tonight. Saturday and Sunday, the board just offered up all of these obvious smell test formula plays. I'm going to give you 19 picks. 13 for tomorrow, 6 for Sunday. And I feel like it's way too many games. And I feel like after the first three weeks, there is a bad week coming.

I wish the bad week coming was on a week when I only liked six or seven games or four or five games. But I give you the games that fit the smell test formula. You know, major anti-public sides that are combined with, sharp money on the anti-public team. And there's a little bit more than that, including some experience and feel over the years. But yeah, that's how we do it. And there are a lot of games here.

So let's get to them. I'm not going to spend a lot of time talking about each one. But San Diego State is in an early game tomorrow, a three-point dog at Toledo. By the way, I'm giving you the best number that I can find. If I can't find a great number, I'm going to take the worst number. There are some threes out there. San Diego State last week played JMU.

They were actually favored in the game. I almost gave them out. I'm glad I didn't. They lost the game 26 to 13, but they were competitive with Madison, competitive with UCLA the week before, and the public's on Toledo and their sharp money on San Diego State. I'll take San Diego State plus three to kick off tomorrow. in one of the two massive games in the SEC on the day tomorrow.

Tennessee in Knoxville, getting five against Texas, publics all over Texas. Sharp money. More on Tennessee right now than Texas. I'm going to be interested to see what happens with this line. I don't know if the line's coming down or going up. As of now, Friday, and I've told you guys this for years, follow me on Twitter at Kevin Sheen, D.C. if there's something that changes dramatically and it makes me get off a game,

I'm going to tweet it out before it doesn't happen very often. And occasionally there will be something that breaks in such a way that could be an injury-related thing or whatever it is, and I'll add a game. So definitely follow me on X at Kevin Sheehan, DC. Tennessee plus five is the play. I have a feeling they're going to win the game outright. Kentucky shocked Texas A&M on the road last week is a big underdog. They won that game easily, won by 10.

They are laying 20 and a half at home against South Alabama. It is kind of a prime letdown spot. The public's hammering Kentucky, and there is sharp money on South Alabama, and that line is under three touchdowns. Give me South Alabama plus the 20 and a half. Maryland looked terrible last week against Virginia Tech, although really they looked good on offense. UCLA's undefeated, and they hung 52 on Purdue last week. They beat San Diego State.

They've looked good so far. They beat Cal on the road. The public thinks that UCLA should be more than a one and a half point favorite. Bob Chesney's doing a decent job out in Westwood. The Bruins come into town for a 130 East Coast start. I like Maryland's offense. This is a big game for Loxley. I don't think he's going to get fired if they lose this game.

I think a lot of Maryland people believe it'll happen. I don't think it'll happen. I think Jim Smith, the new AD, will wait until the end of the year to make a change. And I do think that the odds favor a change. But I also think Maryland's really good and explosive offensively. And I think they're going to win some games. And I think they're going to win outright tomorrow. Smell test pick is Maryland plus one and a half.

half. Miami of Ohio is laying three and a half to a team that probably I don't know if Yukon should be favored, but this game should probably be a pickum. The public's playing the dog here. Give me Miami of Ohio minus the three and a half. The other

big SEC game, man, this is on my bucket list, going to the swamp for a big game. I have heard that Gainesville, the swamp for a big SEC home game. Isn't LSU at night necessarily, but it is the next best thing. Florida is undefeated. One of my losses last week in college was Auburn against Florida. Florida can really score.

They're laying three and a half against the number four team in the country who beat LSU last Saturday night. Kind of a letdown spot, although in the SEC you can't really have let down spots. give me Florida laying three in the hook. Try to find a three out there for sure. But Florida is definitely the anti-public side, and there's sharp money on Florida as well. Michigan's been so unimpressive, starting with the Western Michigan nonsense.

Last week against U-TEP, they were actually in a dog fight for a while. They pulled away. They're laying five and a half at home against Iowa. This is another public dog, Iowa is. so give me Michigan laying the five and a half. Oklahoma hasn't looked good. Georgia's looked great.

Georgia's laying 13 and a half, 14. There is a 14 out there. I'm going to grab it and take the Sooners plus the 14 on the road in Athens. Wisconsin's getting 10 in Happy Valley. Penn States look good. By the way, Matt Campbell is going to do a great job at Penn State. I think Matt Campbell will have Penn State more consistently competing for a playoff birth than James Franklin did.

The public's all over Penn State. Wisconsin is not thought to be a very good team. I'll take Wisconsin plus the 10. I'm going to go with Auburn again. They lost. Vanderbilt had that miracle win against NC State. One of the worst blunders at the end of a game you'll ever see. I'll lay the nine and a half and take Auburn at home against Vanderbilt.

O'DU is getting five and a half against JMU. man, JMU's been a tough team to bet against. I almost did it last week. I'm glad I didn't. It would have lost. But the public's all over JMU. There's sharp money on Old Dominion. I'll take Old Dominion plus the five and a half.

South Carolina gave them out last week against Mississippi State. They didn't get it done. Mississippi State's got a hell of a quarterback in Camari Taylor. They're at Bama against the Crimson Tide who kind of rallied against Florida State with the weather delay, et cetera. The numbers at 12.5.13, there are some 13s out there. I'm going to play South Carolina again because they are an anti-public bigger dog this week than they were last week. They were favored last week, actually. And then Missouri plus five and a half against that Mississippi State team that went into Columbia and beat South Carolina last Saturday night. Mississippi State's quarterback is an absolute must watch.

Camari Taylor is a dude that right now looks like a pro quarterback. And those of you that follow college football closely, you know Camaro Taylor. Okay. You know that he played well at times last year, even though he didn't have as much of an opportunity. But you've kind of seen this coming a little bit. But he was not heralded, you know, before the season started. He wasn't, you know, even in the conversation of Heismanods or, you know, first round picks. This guy's 6-4-230.

He actually plays a little bit like Jaden does in the pocket. And he can run. He's not as dynamic or as electric a runner. No one really is. He also has a build that looks like Cam Newton. Now, Newton, Cam was like 250, 260. Anyway, Mississippi states had a great start to this season. They went to Minnesota two weeks ago and crunched Minnesota on the road.

And then they did the same thing at South Carolina. Now they're back in Starkville, and they're only laying five and a half against Missouri. I'll take Missouri plus the five and a half. Let's go to Sunday. I told you this earlier in the week. Washington plus six and a half, plus seven, now plus seven and a half. I know there is some sharp money on Seattle. There's also some sharp money that I respect on Washington.

The public is hammering Seattle. It's one of the biggest public plays of the weekend. I am very good in games involving Washington either against Washington or with Washington over the years. The guy that has kept track of my pro versus college numbers and my Redskins slash Washington football. team slash commanders record has continually updated me. I'm somewhere around 63%, 62% on games involving the skins over the years. I'm 1 and 0 this year because I had them plus the points against Philly, plus 7 and a half against Seattle. I have no idea how they'll get it done. Honestly, you heard my breakdown of the game and my prediction, but I do think they somehow hang in there

and get a cover. The Browns are getting two and a half. I can't find any. threes out there. That's both good and bad because they're really sort of telling you to try to bet Carolina minus the two and a half less than a field goal, really begging you to do so. Carolina's looked great. I'm a big Bryce Young believer now. I think he's smart. I think he really processes at a high level. He's very good off schedule. Even at 5-9, 5-10, whatever he is, maybe he's, you know, going to be Russell Wilson or Drew Breeze. He can really, really play at a high IQ level. He's coached very well, too, by Canales, who remember had Baker Mayfield, had Gino Smith, and now he's turned around Bryce Young. Carolina looked great against the team that

just beat the Falcons last night. 34 to 3 was the final against Atlanta last week. Cleveland did beat Tampa, but the public loves the Panthers laying a short number as Deshawn Watson gets the home start after the way he played last week. I'll take the Brown. They're very good defensively again this year. I'll take the Browns plus the two and a half. The Cincinnati Bengals are a big public darling, you know, right now after their two and start with a defense that looks awesome. Pittsburgh's getting three and a half at home.

I'll take the Steelers plus the three and a half. Somebody sent this to me, and I'm looking to see who it was. I never give these kinds of numbers out because they're kind of usually irrelevant. But I thought it was interesting because the AFC North does have so much history between these teams. Here it is. The last 15 AFC North games that feature a home dog of more than a field goal, the home dog is 12 and 3, 80% against the number. The Steelers are getting three and a half. I don't see any threes out there at all.

Yeah, I don't. give out the, you know, the Vikings are eight and two in their last 10 games against the number on Monday night games in October. None of that is relevant. The AFC North number is interesting to me because these teams really do more often than not as home dogs. It's sort of stuck with me, as home underdogs, outperform the expectation. Steelers looked awful last week. Cincinnati's looked great two weeks in a row. I'll take the Steelers plus. three and a half against the Bengals. The Jets plus seven at Detroit is a play. Massive public money on Detroit. The Chargers, I think I talked about this game earlier in the week, the one that

definitely more than any other is the one in which if the Chargers win this game, people are going to throw up their arms and say, we know nothing about the NFL, like they did last week with Cleveland or even with Tennessee's near win, et cetera. The Chargers, after two losses at home to open up the season, not really home games for them. They really don't have home field advantage. They go on the road against a team that some believe is the best team in the NFL and the bills. I'll take the Chargers plus the seven and a half. It would not shock me if they win the game outright. I'll also just say this about that game. Buffalo has not been impressive defensively in their first two games. And the Chargers in their first two games, including last week against the

the Raiders. They've actually played two teams that can get after it a little bit better than most realize in the Cardinals and the Raiders defensively. And I think the bills will be a lesser defensive opponent for them. And then the last game, those Cardinals, the Cardinals got absolutely run out of the building by Seattle. That's how good Seattle is. And they're getting basically six points less than the Dolphins got last week against the 49ers. And the 49ers covered and covered easily. Publix on the 49ers again. I'll take the Cardinals plus the eight.

There you go. 19 games. Be careful. I'm due for a bad week. Of course, I'm not going to not give you the plays just because I'm worried about, you know, the luck factor running out. Let me recap all of them.

San Diego State tomorrow plus three. at Toledo. Tennessee plus five, South Alabama plus 20 and a half, Maryland plus one and a half, Miami of Ohio minus three and a half, Florida minus three and a half, Michigan minus five and a half, Oklahoma plus 14, Wisconsin plus 10, Auburn minus nine and a half, Old Dominion plus five and a half, South Carolina plus 13, and Missouri plus five and a half, 13 for tomorrow. Again, none tonight. Sunday, Washington plus seven and a half, Cleveland plus two and a half, Pittsburgh plus three and a half, the Jets plus seven, the Chargers plus seven and a half, and the Cardinals plus eight. All right, that'll do it. I'll be back with a post-game show following the Seattle game, sometime late afternoon, early evening on Sunday. Maybe a little bit later than just after the one o'clock game, because I have, some family in town, and they will be over watching the game.

But I will get to, I promise, a post-game show, and it'll be out sometime late, late afternoon or very early in the evening. All right, that'll do it. Enjoy the football. Enjoy the weekend.