The Kevin Sheehan Show - Oh Chase!

Episode Date: November 12, 2021

Kevin opened the show with his Washington-Tampa final score prediction and a few keys to keeping it close. Chris Knoche joined Kevin for a discussion about Chase Young's comments yesterday. They also talked about Maryland's win last night over GW. Tim Murray/VSIN jumped on for Kevin's "Smell Test" picks and a few of his own as well.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheon Show. Here's Kevin. I'm going to start the show today with two things that you would not have expected. Number one is this. Zach Foucali.

Foucauli became the first goaltender in Capp's history to post a shutout in his NHL debut. He stopped 21 shots, Washington beat Detroit last night. to nothing. Bet you weren't expecting that. And guess what? You're not expecting this, because I usually end the show with this. Tampa Bay 31, Washington, 22.

Usually the final score prediction of the game on Sunday is the last thing I do on this podcast. I am starting the show with that. Washington loses 3122. However, they cover. Plus nine and a half. Losing by nine would mean that they would cover. And yes, I will tell you that Washington is in the smell test,

which I will get to later on in the show. Chris Nocky coming up. All of the Chase Young reaction I will do with Nocky in the next segment. Tim Murray, my good friend who now lives in Vegas, Aaron Oster, who produces this podcast, also produces Tim's radio show, which airs 10 to 1, 10 p.m. to 1 a.m. Eastern out in Vegas as part of the Visa Network. He hosts it with Sean King, former Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback. It is primarily a gambling show.

Tim will join me in the final segment to do my smell test with me or to listen to it and then react to it. And then he'll have a lot of picks on his own. Maryland got a win last night over GW. It was close. Naki and I will talk about that as well. And how about the NFL? It just continues, doesn't it? With big underdogs winning outright. Last night's result, really stunning when you think about it.

I know Baltimore was short week's situation on the road after a draining, long overtime game on Sunday against Minnesota. And Miami, you know, had the Texans last week, had an easy win, and they were playing at home. but I did not expect Baltimore to be dominated by Miami's defense the way Miami dominated defensively. They made Lamar Jackson uncomfortable all night long. They sacked him four times. They hit him eight times in the game. Constant pressure on Jackson. He was 26 of 43, a touchdown and a pick in the game. They bottled him up as a rusher. Baltimore really struggled to run football. I think their biggest run of the night was like a reverse to Duvernay. They didn't even play Levy on Bell that much. Bellhead actually, I thought,

looked pretty good in the game against the Vikings. Devante Freeman got a bunch of the carries. There was a couple of big plays in the game, including a stop of Sammy Watkins on a catch by Xavier and Howard. He stripped him of the ball, picked it up, returned it 49 yards for a touchdown, some controversy over whether or not it was an incomplete pass or a catch. And did he make enough advancement of the ball, a football move? I thought he did. I thought it was a good call. And Miami wins that game 2210 with Tuatunga Vailoa coming in off the bench with Jacoby

Berset injured, going 8 for 13 for 158 yards, including a 64 yard or up 15 to 10 that ended up setting up the go ahead, not the go ahead, the clinching touchdown for the dolphins. And that is now, you know, multiple, just stunning results over the last five days, going back to last weekend, of course, with Jacksonville upsetting Buffalo, Dallas. I still think from the last five days, the most shocking result is Denver being up 30 to nothing at Dallas with five minutes to go in the game. I mean, I understand that Buffalo got beat. by Jacksonville, 9 to 6. Buffalo only scored six points in the game.

But Buffalo was one play away from winning the game, down 9 to 6. Dallas was down 30 to nothing in that game. Anyway, another surprising result. Will it be another big underdog weekend? Well, we're 1 in 0 on dogs so far. And I will tell you, the smell test, all underdogs this Sunday. It'll probably be the wrong weekend to be on underdogs.

We shall see. One of those underdogs is your Washington football team, who I've already told you, I think we'll cover in the game. And they will be in the smell test. And I gave you a final score of 3122, which would be one point off of that final score from the playoff game last year, which was 3123, which leads me to this.

I looked up the notes that I took after the playoff game. last year. I was just curious because we have talked about that playoff game at nauseam over the months. And I wanted to read to you two parts of the notes that I had for what would be the radio show in the podcast that following Monday, following that Saturday night playoff game. The notes included this. Number one, this defense is not elite. This defense got dominated. People have been trying to convince me during the course of the year

that this is an elite top five kind of defense. It isn't. And Saturday night proved it. The defense did lead them to five wins in their last seven games, but they didn't play super competitive teams. The defense may have been a big part of bringing them to this playoff dance,

but it was what escrow. courted them out of the dance. There's no way to get around the fact that this defense was massively improved during the year. It was a good defense. It was at times very good, but usually against lesser competition. And in the biggest game of the year, it let the team down. A team that needed it to lead the way and it did not. A team that needed its best defensive player, Chase Young, to lead the way. And he did not. That was one set of notes that led me to the things that I didn't like in the game. The positive from the game, and I will read to you verbatim,

what are they going to do about Taylor Heineke? Let's face it, he was really good. While the defense was terrible, Heineke gave them a chance in a game that really I never thought they would actually win, but they were in the game because of him more than anybody else. So what's next for this guy? Is he back next year? Is he in competition with Kyle Allen to be the starter?

Or is there a reason that only the coaches understand as to why he was available late in the season and had to be added to their practice squad before elevated to their regular roster? I don't have an answer. I can only say that last night he looked like a guy that can play at the very least be an NFL backup. He can definitely run it. He is a natural at extending plays.

He's got great knack in the pocket for feeling pressure. I have no idea what he really is. I have no idea really if he's an actual candidate to be a starter. I would guess not. but at the very least he's coming back to my team next year. That's what I wrote about him. Oh, I added, I added this. Before I get carried away on Heineke, if you tell me I can get Stafford for, say, a second and a third and a player, I'm doing that in my sleep. There are probably three to four other options that I would pursue.

But at the very least, I'm intrigued with Heineke. And then I wrote, comparison, Jeff Garcia. That's what I wrote. And then I got into my whole game take, things I liked and things I didn't like. The Jeff Garcia thing, if you recall, I had no idea at the time when I said this. I really did think Jeff Garcia watching him in that playoff game. And then it came out like two weeks later that Taylor Heineke actually worked with Jeff Garcia, that Jeff Garcia had mentored him to a certain degree.

By the way, the other thing in looking back through my notes of this game was just a reminder that Chris Godwin dropped five passes in the game. I think I may have mentioned that yesterday when we were talking about this game with Tommy. Like they had 507 yards and 31 points. They ran it down Washington's throat. They threw it at will. And Chris Godwin dropped five balls in the game. It was really kind of a miracle that they were in the game. Again, going back to that game, I never thought they had a chance to win it.

So what do they have to do to win this game? Well, I'm going to start with just real basic stuff, and I'm going to end with basic stuff, because to be honest with you, this is a long shot. You know, they have some games on their schedule this year that I think are, you know, winnable, not that I would favor them, favor them to win it, but I think they're more winnable. This game, I don't see it. It's the NFL. We know what's happened the last few weeks. So, you know, of course it could happen. and the line is sort of indicating and the public action is sort of indicating that Washington might be the sharp side here. But the first thing they have to hope for is that the Buccaneers play in Washington the way they have played other road games this year.

They've been pretty bad on the road. They're two and two on the road, but the two wins were a 1917 win over New England, which was a loseable game, and a 2822 win over the Philadelphia. Eagles at the link. Their two losses on the road were really two blowout losses, you know, to the Rams, 34, 24, 24 earlier in the year. And then the last game they played before the buy week, you know, they got handled by New Orleans, 36 to 27.

When I say handled, they were down by nine in the second half, and then they ended up losing by nine. They had it to within two at one point. Actually, I think they may have actually taken the lead at some point in that game as well in the fourth quarter. But they lost the game. They have not played well on the road. Now, D.C. is not the same road environment that other stadiums have been.

It's not the Superdome. It's not New England the way Foxborough was that night. It's not the link. It's not L.A. So it's not going to feel necessarily like a true road game. In fact, it might feel like a home game tomorrow or Sunday, excuse me, for Tampa. But they've turned the ball over six times on the road and committed 34 penalties in four games on the road. So they've made mistakes.

They have not played well. Washington needs that to happen. Secondly, whenever you play Tom Brady, there's one way to slow him down. It's been career-long kryptonite for him, and that is interior pressure. And Washington's strength defensively, the interior of their defensive front, John Allen, Duran Payne, Matt Ionitis. They have to get interior pressure, get Brady off his mark, make him a month. uncomfortable. This has always been against Brady the way you make them look something like something other than Tom Brady. Thirdly, and this is very obvious as well. Washington has got to

score in this game. And I feel comfortable about their ability to move the football. I think the next two weeks are going to be tougher because Tampa's healthier and Carolina's got a really good defense, but they have proven, you know, even against a couple of good defensive teams, that they can move the football. And they've moved the football. They have to score after moving the football. They have to make a 10-play 64-yard drive pay off with points. And I would say to you that they've got to be aggressive and score touchdowns as I did before the Kansas City game and the Green Bay game. And I felt the opposite against Denver. I'm like, take the field goals. Don't push it on fourth and five. Take the field goals. You're not going to, you're going to need points. You would think,

Against Tampa, you need points and you need to be aggressive. New Orleans kicked three field goals in the red zone. They had two 23-yard field goals and a 35-yard field goal in their win over Tampa. You just have to score. Washington's got to figure out a way to score at the end of these drives. It's been obviously a major, major problem. Lastly, and I think this is really important, Washington has got to tackle and they've got to be within range, no matter who plays. and who doesn't for Tampa in terms of the receivers.

They're going to be without Godwin. They're going to be without Grunk, and they're going to be without Scotty Miller. I'm missing somebody in there. But they're still going to have Mike Evans. They're going to have Tyler Johnson. They're going to have Cameron Brayt. They're going to have O.J. Howard.

They're going to have a Leonard Fournett to deal with. They've got to be able to stay close with these guys and then tackle them after catches. This is going to be huge. It's been an issue for them all year. long. Go back to that Kansas City game. How many mistackles turned into big plays or bigger plays than they should have been. Same thing in the Green Bay game. I want to see Washington become a better tackling team in the final nine games of the season. And it will be crucial against good

offensive teams like Tampa, even a banged up offensive team like Tampa. You've got to tackle O.J. Howard. You've got to tackle Tyler Johnson. You've got to tackle Mike Evans. You've got to be close to these guys. And then obviously on the front end, as Ron Rivera talked about being connected, front end and back end, you've got to have interior pressure. That's it. I mean, you know, we could go on about certain matchups. You've got to score against this team. You've got to get Brady off his mark. And you've got to hope that Tampa has some self-inflicted damage, as they have on the road with penalties and turnovers. One last thing in this opening segment before we get to Naki, and we talk about the Chase Young comments from yesterday.

Brendan Dar, who's the producer of my radio show, sent me something a little while ago. It is one of those Seth Walder NFL next-gen stat charts. He writes for ESPN. And you know how I feel about a lot of this stuff. But this was very interesting to me, and Brendan knew it would be interesting to me, because I've said all year long, no one can tell me with any sort of advanced evaluation that Chase Young's having a good season.

I watch every single one of his plays. There's a lot of focus for all of us on the defensive line in particular and number 99 specifically. And there's just nobody that can tell me through some sort of advanced evaluation that what my eyes have been watching are somehow deceiving me,

that he's actually had a good year. No one's really saying that anymore, but they were for a while. Like, you know, they were hitting you with pressures and win rate percentages and all this stuff. Whatever. I've said all along about the Ron Rivera chipping and doubling, and Ron Rivera, you know, doubled down on this, doubled down on it a little bit this week saying, you know, 55, 56, 57% of the time, Chase and Montez are being chipped. They're being doubled.

I asked him about that in my Friday interview, which I recorded yesterday. You can hear what he said by listening to the interview at the team 980.com. But anyway, this Seth Walder analytics study on, which included two different things. It included the double team rate on pass rushers. And it also included a pass rush win rate statistic. What's most important here is the double. team rate. So Ron Rivera said that Chase Young and Montez sweater being chipped, you know, slashed doubled more than anybody in the league, 57%. He told me that on radio again.

And I kind of said previously, I don't see it. I've seen it more in the last three games against Denver, Green Bay, and Kansas City. But there was a stretch earlier in the season when people were saying he was being doubled and chipped. And I'm like, he's not in the game I'm watching. I thought John Allen was getting doubled more. This analytics study was more with pass rushers, edge pass rushers. Montez Sweat and Chase Young would be the two on this team. So the double team rates, how often are you getting double teamed as a pass rusher? Nick Bose is getting double team more than anybody in the league.

Cam Jordan, Charles Harris, Max Crosby, and Miles Garrett are sort of in line after that. Then you've got guys like De Neal Hunter who's out for the year, O'Dhdafi Owe, Joey Bosa, Justin Houston, Jadavian Clowny. They're in the mix as well. And you've got to go all the way to the beginning of the second half of the study of the league's edge pass rushers. to find the Chase Young and Montez-Swet double-team rate numbers. They are in the lower half of the league. They are below the league average in being double-teamed.

At least according to this study, by the way, this would be the study that sort of matches up more with what my eyes have watched. I haven't gone back and gone through every single Chase-Young play to find out how many snaps he's been double-teamed on. Now, Ron did specifically say the third and seven, or third and seven or longer, or between third and seven and ten. I mean, shit, you could probably say,

hey, between third and seven and third and ten, they're at a 57 percent, and that's higher than anybody else. But if you went to third and seven and third and twelve, maybe they'd be in the much lower half. Who knows? It sounds like kind of a convenient way for them to put together a number that makes it sound like they're not getting results because so much of the opponent's focuses on them. I haven't seen it that way. More in the last three games than the other five that

preceded them, but I just haven't seen it that much. I thought that was an interesting number. But then again, it was an interesting number because it sort of backed up what I think is more of what I've seen. But all of these things, Ron gets his numbers from PFF. I think the bottom line is all of us would admit that there's nobody that could convince us that Chase Young or Monta's sweat have had good years because they have it. All right. Up next, Chris Snocki joins us and we'll get into what Chase Young said yesterday. Right after these words from a few of our sponsors.

I was making money, baby. Got to make the money. So none of y'all would have duck, you know, the money. Yeah, so you know what the sign? And the end of the day, it's the job. You feel me? Just like y'all do your job, I do my job. Have a good.

Thank you. Two guests on the show today. The first is Chris Nakke, my good friend. And this is not a Maryland basketball segment, although we will talk Terps. But Nakke's been doing a lot of radio recently for 1067 The Fan. And he is understood doing solo shows that the more you talk about Washington football, the more callers you will get. and the more everything you will get, social media, et cetera.

And we've got a situation, as you just heard, that was Chase Young yesterday. If you're new to this conversation, he was essentially asked about, you know, his performance and whether or not any of the off-season activities that he missed. He missed all 6 OTA days. He was the only one of 90 players to miss all of them. Doing endorsements, doing commercials, has affected that. And you heard what he said. He said, I was making money, baby.

you got to make the money. None of y'all would abduct the money. And at the end of the day, it's a job. Just like you all do your job, I do my job. So Chris Snocki is on with me, and we will have this discussion together. I'll let you take the first swing. Go ahead. We just can't have nice things in this town, can we? You know, it's just one thing after another with this group. You know, the, and, you know, we've sort of gotten used to these indirect jabs, I think that Rivera has taken at Chey Shung. I mean, without ever mentioning his name, we're talking about the

level of maturity. You know, and I think that it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that Chashun's a part of his of those jabs. Kevin, the lack of accountability is astonishing. You know, this is a guy who

we sort of fought with maybe more mature than he, maybe he really is at this point in time. He's a young man. He's got grown. into the job a little bit. He's got to hold himself accountable. And he's a poster boy for the, you know, for the over-hyped season that this has been. And, you know, a lot of it was on his shoulders. And at some point in time, he has to hold himself accountable because we are, as fans, you know, I mean, I think that he, there are a lot of fans that are really disappointed

with what they've seen out of him this year and the lack of action from him this year. Yeah, the overhyped, the under-delivered season so far from him and this defense. I mean, it's been a common theme of this franchise. You know, I've always referred to it as they're the kings of over-promising and under-delivering, which, you know, for many of us of a certain age, that was the opposite of the Joe Gibbs era. They under-promised and just way over-delivered year-and-year-and- which I know for people like you and I, and I don't know if this is an age thing, but, you know, we prefer more like, you know, show me, don't tell me. But they've been the kings of telling you and then not showing you shit over a long period of time.

You know, for me... To your point, to your point, Kevin, Joe Gibbs, you know, in retrospect, Joe Gibbs was from the wear beige and keep your mouth shut world. You know, there was never, and he wasn't concerned about winning an off-season or winning some sort of a campaign, you know. It was just straight ahead, and it was. was all about the end product. And boy, we miss that, right? We do. So let me get to, and I want you to weigh in further on this. So for me, when I heard this yesterday, first of all,

I knew it was going to blow up. And by the way, I have Ron Rivera on the show every Friday on the radio show. You can go back and listen to that. I did not know, because I record the interview with Ron the day before on Thursdays. I did not know of the Chase Young comments, but he did tell me something about Chase Young that was an absolute reveal for me, which I will get to here in a moment. But once I heard what Chase Young said,

I knew what the reaction was going to be. But I also, you know, we've been through this before, you know, with the constant self-absorbed hashtag movement of RG3. and whatever. It's always something with this organization in terms of kind of young players that lack in maturity and self-awareness. But I want to start with this. The part that's not hard for me is that there are two things that I think most reasonable people would agree on as it relates to these comments. And as it relates to Chase Young and his performance and everything he did in the offseason, et cetera.

is number one. And by the way, both of these things are true in my mind's eye anyway, simultaneously. Like we can walk and chew gum at the same time. And so can he. He has absolutely the right to do commercials, to seek endorsements. And by the way, if I were close to him, I would absolutely advise him to take advantage of the opportunity he had off a defensive rookie of the year's season to strike while the iron was hot on the endorsement front. Reasonable people shouldn't have any problem with that. Careers in football are super short. You make the most you can while you can. That is true in my mind's eye. That's what I believe. I also think this is true at the same time. He's got to deliver on the field. His full-time job and profession is as a football player,

and he has responsibilities and obligations that go with that. He's obligated to put the significant majority of his professional effort into being the best football player he can be. That obligation is to his employer who pays him, to his teammates who rely on him, and to the fans who are, for all intents and purposes, the primary reasons why his profession is so lucrative. You know, the fans are contributors to his livelihood. He has responsibilities. Both of those two things are true. You know, go get your endorsement money while you can.

But don't forget that your primary obligation is to perform to your best ability as a football player. He can walk and chew gum at the same time, and so can we in discussing that, in discussing this. Now, with that said, yesterday it was a reflection of incredible lacking of self-awareness on his part. He's having... Yeah, go ahead. Just also, lack of ability to read the room. Yeah.

Tone-death. Considering considering this is an organization in such disarray to simply go out there and be that flippant about it. And Kevin, I'm in an agreement with you 100%. I would never begrudge anybody the opportunity to make money. I get it. I'm all for it. I'm a capitalist to the nth degree.

But he doesn't have those ancillary opportunities without real production on the field. Those opportunities came as a result of a second half of a season last year, played against, you know, basically UPS drivers as quarterbacks for the other team. And so, you know, so he gets those opportunities. Let's see where all those opportunities are at the end of this particular season, you know, where he's got one sack. I think if that. So I agree with you. Both things can be true, and I think both things are true, but his inability to read the room and complete obliviousness to the situation, the current situation of this franchise is staggering to me. Unreal. Yeah, and I think

it's fair to say if somebody were to say, because I think this is the stuff that's debatable. I think the first two things are debatable, but I think most reasonable people would agree on him. I think some people would say, well, he's young, he's immature, he's, okay, and we're describing it as such. What you heard yesterday was a certain tone deafness and a definite lack of self-awareness. He is having a rough season and is part of one of, if not the worst defenses in the league on a team that's two and six. His answer, you know, if he lacks If he has self-awareness is, look, the off-season stuff, my coaches knew about it. That's my business with them.

I've discussed that with them. That's in the past. Here's the thing I have to do. I've got to play better. I haven't played up to my ability. I have to play better, period. And those comments were a reflection, in my opinion, of somebody just lacking completely in understanding the kind of year he's having.

Now, the origin of all of this was, yes, a defensive rookie of the season, a defensive rookie of the season campaign, rookie of the year campaign, which by the way, I think he played exceptionally well, despite the tomato cans that they were facing a quarterback at times, you know, down the stretch. I thought he really had a phenomenal rookie year, and his performance this year is shocking to me. The defense's performance is shocking. I did not expect like many expected the Chicago Bears of 1985, and it was because of who they faced down the stretch, but I wasn't expecting this at all. But the real origin of the question that was presented yesterday came because he was one of 90 players, just one player on the roster of 90 for the OTAs in late May and early June, failed to post for even one of 10. of the OTA sessions. And that one player was him. And I said at the time, Nocky, I said,

and Doc had a really good line to me. He's during that time. He said, leaders don't give coaches, teammates, fans, media members any reason to question their leadership. Like what the OTAs produce, forget that. A lot of people say it doesn't mean anything. Kooli's told me before, you don't do anything in OTAs. That's not the point. The point is he was a team captain. He was presented and given the mantle of a team leader. And he decided because of endorsement opportunities and commercial shoots. And by the way, just flat out wanted to be in Florida working out more than with his team.

Because you could have done both of these things simultaneously. You could have said, hey, eBay, I need to post. I have OTA. so those days aren't going to work and they would have absolutely rescheduled. He was the star. He had the leverage, but he didn't post for one of them.

Would he have had better results this year? Had he had posted for all six OTA days? Probably not. Nobody's saying that. What I am saying is if he's a leader, he should adopt the mode of don't give anybody, your teammates, your coaches, fans, media members, reason to question your question your.

leadership. And by the way, could he have provided some benefit from being there? Well, I can tell you this, because I talked to people, and I told you this, all of you this last spring, they were not happy about this. They were not happy that their team captain that they assigned that mantle to, that label to, was the only one out of 90 that didn't think it was important enough to show up for a voluntary event. We understand that. But really, the coaches wanted their leaders there. Ron Rivera went out of his way during that OTA session to point out

you know, Brandon Sheriff didn't need to be here but that's the kind of leadership we're looking for. And Tommy said at the time, Naki, he goes, that is a direct shot at 99. No doubt. No kidding. Yeah. And they were not happy that he wasn't there and that was another

example of not reading the room. Okay, they're voluntary. So what? If your boss tells you, hey, look, I'm getting everybody together at my house on Saturday. We're going to have, you know, a brunch, we're going to have bloodies, you know, we're going to be together socially. And there's some ideas that I want to present sort of high level and get your opinions to. If you've got plans, I understand, you don't have to make it. It's a voluntary thing. But most people who are

interested in the overall well-being of the company and their position in it are going to figure out a way to be there. And if they offer six opportunities, which there were with OTAs, you're going to make it to one of them. And he did not. And so this is why he would, if he's having a great year this year and the defense is in the top 10 and they're five and three or four and four and not two and six, nobody's asking that question, which goes back to my original point. Don't give people reasons to ask those questions if you are a true leader, which he is. not. That's one thing we've learned from this. Yeah, yeah, no quite. Well, again, Kevin, I think it goes back to the accountability. There's

none with him, which is really, really disappointing. But I think to your point about the OTAs, too, is that one of the things that I think a lot of people miss about, when you're trying to build a team and you're trying to put the pieces together and you're trying to develop that precious thing called chemistry, that, you know, everybody talks about very hard to define sometimes, but you know it when you see it. When you're trying to do that, there are all sorts of, you know, what, there's nothing better to call it than team building activities that have not necessarily anything to do with the X's and O's. You're not necessarily talking about stunts at the line or anything necessarily. It's guys spending time together, and there's a certain bonding. There's a certain,

and, you know, sort of a mutuality, and I think that anybody's played a team sport, understands that, that those times can be invaluable. And when you lose it, as a coach, it's maddening. When you, you know, I was lucky. I could be a college coach and demand that my players participate at some of the bullshit activities that sometimes I ask them to do. But I did it, I did it for the greater good and to build some sort of a commonality. and I can only imagine the frustration.

I know Rivera is a player's coach. I get it. But, you know, much like what Tom said to you, what Levera said to you about, his sheriff comments, when I read Rivera's comments post-loss, there are so many indirect shots that are taken at guys,

and I always think that Chase's, the guy that he directs a lot of those things to, somewhat indirectly. What did he say to you? You got me curious here. You mentioned he said something. I know you recorded him. So it was before the young comment. I'll tell. Well, let, so I'm going to get to that. You said something that is so that I don't want to forget to respond to. That the idea that OTAs can be these team building activities. It's so true and even more so with a team that had a head coach hired who has talked about nothing more than he has talked about changing the culture. Culture, culture, culture. This has been such a toxic bad, you know, train wreck of a culture franchise and getting

people in that understood that we are changed. And by the way, Chase Young's a local. He knows how much of a train wreck this franchise has been. And so these OTAs, in which, by the way, let me just remind everybody of what the context was at the time. There were a lot of teams that canceled the OTAs because they didn't want to do them. They went to the

Players Association. COVID was a concern. Ron Rivera got 89 of the 90 players on his roster to post for these things because he's trying to change the culture. He's trying to get people to be truly

bought in and committed. And when your team captain and a supposed leader doesn't even post for one of them, that's why they were pissed. And then to your other point, Rivera has been talking so much over the last week and a half. And we've been talking on this podcast about the things that he originally said to Mike Silver about a week and a half ago and then the Monday presser. And he has chosen to now publicly, you know, point out. and get specific about a couple of players, Montez Sweat and Chase Young. He has been constructively critical of both, much more so of Chase Young. He's also been simultaneously encouraging saying, you know, he's got the work ethic to get this thing right, etc.

But I have been saying since early in the year that some of you accuse me of trying to stir it up, that there's something wrong beyond just the poor performance on the field. Something ain't right. Something's going on behind the scenes that is not right. And I've had this sense all along that Chase Young was at the center of this. Well, what's been confirmed over the last week and a half and then even more so yesterday is there's a rift. There's a rift between Rivera and Young or Jack Del Rio and Young. Who knows?

But there is a disconnect right now between the number two pick in the draft, you know, two drafts ago, a guy that was the defensive rookie of the year and the organization, not the organization, the staff. I'm wondering if it goes beyond that and there's a rift with some of the players. I don't know the answer to that. Oh, well, whoa, whoa, stop right there. How can you be one of those 89, Kevin, and this guy not show up and not take it personally? How do you – I mean, it takes to me – these are all young men, okay? and they're all striving to get to a certain spot. How?

There has to be a risk. To me, that smacks, and I agree. I agree that those were voluntary. I get it. He wasn't required to be there. But, holy shit, Kevin. Everybody else made the effort to get there. And so you can't tell me that there aren't others in that locker room

that don't believe that there are different rules for different players. I'm sure that's the case. And then what happens is you lose a couple of games, and those things really start to manifest themselves. When you win, it covers up all the, you know, it just covers up all the stink, you know. But when you lose, shit like that becomes bigger and bigger and bigger.

And now, you know, they play like a team that's got discord. There's no chemistry on that defense whatsoever. certainly not what they had last year. So I totally think that that's the, you know, as players, I honestly believe there's a rift there. Look, Ron has told you that over the last week and a half. Ron's been saying, look, you know, again, this has been going on now since early in the season when Ron first started to talk about a lack of maturity or a concern over maturity, a lack of discipline, a lack of adhering to the scheme.

and I think many of us knew that Chase Young was certainly one of those players, and I'm not suggesting that he was the only one, but over the last week and a half, including yesterday, we're now all sure, okay, that Young was certainly a focus of some of Ron's subtle discussion and then obviously over the last week and a half the more direct discussion of Young. I also just want to point out that, you know, and I think we all understand this. Like, again, no issues whatsoever. Do not begrudge for a moment him taking advantage of these opportunities. I said at the time he could have done both. I am convinced he could have done both. I know he was not on a shoot for all six of those days. And even if there were shoots scheduled, he was in position to say,

my number one responsibility is to this football. team and my employer, I can't do the shoot on this day I have to be in D.C. He could have done that. He could have done both. And anybody thinks that that's not possible. You're way off on that. But the opportunity he has by just being a great football player on a great defense, on a good team, in terms of topping T.J. Watt or Miles Garrett's contract, because that's kind of the the trajectory he was on, you know, to end up getting maybe the biggest deal in the history of the league for a defensive player when he got to that point. And then all that comes, I mean, these are exponentially increased opportunities if you perform at a high level and you're on a good

team. And this is the part that's been frustrating all along, is that, you know, there's been like this, okay, go get what you need to get and strike while the iron's hot. Nobody begrudges you for that, but do you understand that your big upside is to be a great player on a really good team? And then you wouldn't believe what would be coming your way. But anyway. Yeah, and he's got the charisma, he's got the look, you know, and I think he's got the game. I just think that, you know, it's so disappointing when you see the package, and then you have this kind of, you know, this lack of accountability, lack of awareness.

But it's so in keeping. It's so on brand for this organization. I'm sorry. You know, you hope that at some point in time it's restored. I don't know how or where it. Well, I mean, for him, you know, the great news is they've got nine games left. Like, the season isn't over. It's not even halfway over, you know, and the sack and a half and the few quarterback hits he has,

the very disappointing year that he's had so far, they're going to go ahead and play these last nine games, and he's going to be a part of it. And, you know, while none of us, like, part of me wonders if he's delusional about his performance with the way he gave those answers yesterday. There's no advanced statistical evaluation from one of these, you know, analytical companies that could convince me he's having a good year. I watched every play of every game and the defensive line's been a focal point for all of us. 99 in particular has been a guy we've been watching playing and play out.

And the bottom line is he has had minimal, minimal impact through the first eight games of this year. Minimal. Well, and what's implied with his comments too is him implicitly saying, this is not about me. This is, I mean, you know, so he gets dogged a little bit by his performance. I mean, again, just the accountability issue is staggering. And again, I don't know how he's just still the captain. I don't know. I guess you appoint him for the season and you make him look foolish if you take it away from him.

But there's no leadership there at all. The captain thing is just, you know, it's kind of a running joke with so many fans about how people show up and they're given, you know, they're in the building for three minutes and somebody slaps a sea on his jersey. You know, we've had that for forever. It's never been something that's been earned necessarily, and that's what's disappointing about this. And maybe they regret it, and maybe they'll yank it from them. And, you know, but again, you know, your job is to perform on the field. Do your job really well.

and none of this other shit will even be brought up. That's the thing I can't stand that people say, you know, they'll get into this conversation about, you know, I had a caller this morning. We're doing it again. We did it with Albert Hainsworth. We did it with Robert Griffin III. And now we're doing it.

And I'm like, really? And what kind of career did Albert Hainsworth and Robert Griffin the third have when they left here? You don't think part of it is on them, like all of it? Yeah. But this guy is, I think, a transcendent talent. He is young. Maybe he'll look back two years from now and say, that was kind of stupid the way I handled it.

And he certainly has the talent, and he's got plenty of time to prove to everybody, prove to everybody that it's going to be worthwhile watching him, as he suggested as part of his press conference yesterday. Just watch, he said. All right, you asked me about what Ron Rivera told me. So one of the things about the defense this year that's been very obvious, and I don't have the numbers in front of me, and I'm sure somebody has those numbers. But it's been very obvious that Chase Young has lined up more on the left side as a defensive end opposite the right tackle this year than he did last year.

Last year, he was primarily, or the majority of the time, lined up as the right defensive end over the left tackle. Correct. So I asked Ron Rivera, I said, why? Why are you guys doing it that way? And he said, well, it's something that, you know, Chase and Montez, you know, decide to do. And I said, what do you mean? He said, well, you know, they have the choice of how they want to line up. I said, they do?

Like, they come out of the – they get into the huddle, the defense is called, and then they decide which side they're going to line up on? Yeah, is pretty much what he said. I had no idea. Now, Ben Standing, it reached out to me to say that in an interesting conversation he had with Chase Young a few weeks ago, he asked him about that. And Chase said something like, yeah, Montez wanted to play the right side more this year. And Ben said to me, he's like, I heard what he said, but I guess I didn't really put two and two together that they were making the decision on this. and that was a reveal to me.

I just figured a place called, and by the way, I'm not being critical of it. I don't know that other teams don't do it the same way. I did ask Ron Rivera, okay, well, do you think it's impacted Chase Young's performance by being more on that side? And he said, no, I don't think it's had any impact on his performance. But for those that knew this, you know, credit to you, I did not know that basically Chase and Montez make the call on which side.

of the line of scrimmage they're going to line up on. Well, I mean, it's, first of all, it's stunning, but I had no idea either, but I will say this, that if I'm Ron Rivera, and I see the middling results that this alternating, you know, as produced, I think I interject myself and say, you know what, let's go back to where we were last year, well, both you guys had the seasons you had,

and let's see if we can't, you know, You can't just play from that point, see what the results are, and see if that makes a difference. Because, again, you know, with the definition of insanity, right? Just doing the same thing time after time and expected different results, that really surprises me. I did not realize that the end had that kind of, you know, that they were able to do that. Maybe that's the case in the league. I had no idea that was the case.

Yeah, I mean, in fact, it sort of lends like this new perspective of this whole thing about adhering to the scheme and playing the scheme and playing your responsibilities. And yet they have this kind of autonomy to line. Now, they switched last year. They didn't play exclusively on one side, but he played more as a right defensive end last year and much more as a left defensive end this year. And apparently it's their decisions to do it that way. Okay. Who do you like this Sunday? Give me a prediction on the game against California.

Yeah, I think you get Brady coming in. I mean, you know, thinking how hard it was to live in that Brady house for two weeks, coming off of a loss and a buy, I think he comes in and lights this team up. I mean, to the tune of like 37, 23, something like that. I think I don't know how healthy the Tampa Bay wide receiver core is right now. Gronk obviously is feeling every bit of his age. I think Godwin is out, right? Is he playing?

Godwin, Gronk, Scotty Miller. They've got a lot of people out. Now, Mike Evans is going to play, and Tyler Johnson's going to play. And they've got a lot of depth in those spots. But yeah, they're banged up offensively.

Yeah. They've still got Brains Fournettes had a really good year over the last six or seven weeks. So I'm there a handful. You might be getting them through just the wrong time here. But, you know,

Hope Springs a Turtle. I'll pay attention for sure. I'll be it on every flight. You know, one of the things I was told a couple of weeks ago is that this will actually be the biggest crowd of the year to date at FedEx Field. They have had the lowest attendance in the league, their 32nd out of 32 teams,

with an average paid attendance of just over 51,000. actual estimates of those that have shown up that have been more in the 40 to 42,000 range with at least a third being the opponent's fans. This is going to be a, I want to see Tom Brady play crowd. It's not going to be a Washington football team crowd. The cowboy game will obviously be a big deal as well. But to your point, to your point, Kevin, last week, I had a guy asked me if I wanted to go to the Tampa Bay game.

And it was the first time in years, I actually thought about it. I actually considered, you know, maybe I might want to go to that. But ultimately, I said no. I got some other things going on on Sunday that make it kind of hard. But I see it. I think there would be a really healthy crowd out there for the first time of the year. Yeah, and the Dallas crowd will obviously, you know, they'll be there and force the cowboy fans.

All right, let's switch subjects here. Of course, NACI does the Maryland basketball games with Johnny Holliday and Walt Williams. Terps 2-0 after a very competitive game and a win last night over GW, 71 to 64. Give me a couple of your big takeaways through their first two games, which obviously include a lot of new players. Yeah, you got some work to do in terms of building some cohesion. I thought after watching and practice several times, Kevin, that one of the things that concern me was shot making from the perimeter, and who was going to be that guy, you know, to get him the big shot.

Now, last night it was Fats Russell. He used to dagger with 40 seconds to play, but the shooting prior to that was just atrocious. And they had some good looks. I thought early on in the game they settled for a lot of jump shots as opposed to attacking the basket. and the one thing I really love about what I've seen, the overriding thing that I love about what I've seen, is the big guy, Caduce Wahab is a monster. He is a very, very good basketball player,

and he's a block-to-block guy in a league where there are very good block-to-block guys. And so last year I always felt like when Maryland was playing against, you know, Illinois or Michigan, you start the game, at a huge disadvantage because of what's going on in the paint. And those days have passed. The two guys who play the five spot have been outstanding for the terms. You know, they've got to get some of the perimeter issues ironed out.

The rotation has to, and it'll come. Those things will come. That's why you play these games, you know, these November games to sort of figure that out. And by the time you get the Big Ten, you know, you pretty much set with what you have to do. But they do have some work to do. especially on the offense event. On Wahab, the transfer from Georgetown, for those of you that don't know, first of all, he's much more skilled than I thought.

I think he's got really good hands. I think he's got a very good shooting touch. And you can see that, you know, at the free throw line. I think there's going to be a moment here this year where they're going to be leaving him open from the mid-range and maybe even from behind the arc. And I think he's got a really good stroke. I don't know if he can shoot the three. but he's got a really good stroke.

I know he's big, you know, at 6-11, 240. I've watched a lot of college hoops here this week. There are some men out there, and there's some men in this league. Is he at that level where he is, you know, a man amongst boys? Yeah, you know, I think he is, but, I mean, I guess we'll see soon enough. I, you know, they were so undersized in the post last year. I think he's more than capable of holding his own. The other thing is, Kevin, I think he's a guy, you know,

when you get to an NCAA tournament game and you're looking to ride a horse in the second half of a game, you need, you know, you need the critical buckets. I think you can play through him. I think he's one of those guys. Now, he does have to do a better job of understanding, you know, double teams where they're coming from. I thought he was an unaware last night

with GW. But that's one of the things like Bruno Fernando really learned how to how to deal with that. It became a very good passer out of the post. And the more you pass it and the better you can pass it, it makes teams less likely

to continue to go down there and double team you. And it'll create opportunities for himself. So I love what I've seen out of the post position for them, that's far. I think the rest will we'll figure it all out as the season goes on but I mean that's a great place to start

considering how you know where they were last year with that position. I'm really glad about last night's game because I think sometimes when you're not involved in sort of a pressure game early on and then you end up with the first Big Ten game and it's

it's it grinds to a halt and every possession matters and protecting the ball matters and running good offense matters. You know, they came out of a time out last night needing a bucket and they went right inside to Wahab off that little curl, that, you know, that duck in play where, you know, Iyala comes off the screen and catches it at the free throw line. And he ended up going to the free throw line on that. I think that that's the stuff, you know, that it takes time to really get and understand. And you don't get that without having games where possessions matter. They overcame last night

a horrific shooting night, as you mentioned. I mean, Eric Ayala could not hit a shot to save his life. I mean, they were three for 20 as a team from behind the arc. But Fats Russell last night. So right before he hit the three, that was the dagger three. So I love everything that I've seen about him. By the way, for those of you who are college basketball fans or Maryland fans or looking for an exciting player, Fats Russell, their transfer 511, 160 pounds.

guard from Rhode Island. One of the big transfers of the transfer portal off season is Maryland's starting point guard, and he is lightning, lightning quick. He is, he is end-to-end super fast. He is, he can really finish at the rim despite his size. But what I didn't know is whether or not he had the Cowan ability to close out a game with a dagger three. Because you know what, Gnaki, what's apparent, is the more and more he blows by people, they're going to back off him and they're going to see if he can shoot. And that, I loved his stroke. And they said he was a 28% three-point shooter at Rhode Island. I thought that shot was, first of all, he took it confidently.

And it had great arc. It had great backspin. It was perfect coming off his fingertips. It looked like a really good stroke. I think that's going to be really important for him that he's able to knock down and be a threat from out there, don't you? Yeah, and I tell you, you know, there's a lot to bite off there on those comments. The first one, last night I said a couple of times right at the end of the broadcast, it was the best possible night for this team in terms of all the things that happened to them,

all the things that they sort of survived, and the fact that they got to win. You know, if you go in there and win that game by 35 points, you don't get anything out of that. I thought they learned a lot about themselves, got a chance to play out a bunch of important situations. that is a big deal this time of the season. And I agree with you on Fats. You know, he might be the guy to be taking those big shots.

I said after the game, he's always been a big shot taker. And I, you know, certainly like the, you know, he's got game, he's got look, he's got it, you know, for this team. He's got, I don't know what it is,

but he is, he's impossible not to fall in love with if he's playing for your team. Kevin, I thought, you know, last year he did not shoot the ball well at Rhode Island. The year before that, he did. And so I think maybe last year's an anomaly. He didn't have all the weapons last year at Rhode Island that he had two years before. And he's got some guys right now that he, you know, that are going to allow him a little bit of space. Now, to you point, too, about giving him room, on the basis of what I saw last night,

If I'm an opposing team and I'm coming in to play Maryland, I think I play a lot of zone. I think I pack it in, you know, just make – you know, you crowd guys around Wahab. Let's see if these guys make shots. And in November, strange things happen. You know, the other night when Navy beat UVA in Charlottesville, that's exactly what they did. They said, you know what, we're going to just pack the paint. We're going to see if Kihei Clark can make a three-pointer. Yeah.

The two guards, starting guards, you shoot three of 15, I think, or something like that. And in this day and age, it's hard to survive when you shoot that poorly from the three-point line, which is, again, why it's nice to see the terms of survive last night after a three-for-20. Yeah, I agree with you. I mean, look, I mean, defensively, the number one reason a team will play zone is you can't keep the ball in front of you

in man-to-man. And so it's really, really hard to stay in front of Russell. I love also the fact that he clearly has the green light to really push pace, you know, off of a defensive turnover, off of a defensive rebound, and try to create. I love that. I also think, and we saw a little bit of this last night, I also think as much of a complete and utter disruptor he can be as an on-ball defender because of his quick hands and his quick feet, I also think teams with big guards who can score, that's going to be a problem for Maryland because he is tiny.

You know, and the kid last night, Bishop, I mean, why did they not turn him back to his right? They let him go left and shoot over Russell on the floor. Why was there not? I've got turgents right in front of me. He is yelling at these guys. Sit on his left, meaning, put him right. He was. He was.

Every time. Absolutely. I was so frustrated. Yeah. He said after the game, he said, I'm telling these guys that, you know, a bishop, I mean, he had some very difficult shots, but he hit every one of them going to his left. And, yeah, it was frustrating. He was frustrating last night. There were a couple of officiating calls that didn't go their way at critical times.

So, you know, they played through them. Like I said, a lot of boxes were checked last night. Yeah, so a couple of other quick observations. I want your thoughts on. Number one, just to reiterate, I do think that defensively, it'll be interesting to see if some of the bigger, more physical guards in the league are able to make that a liability for Maryland with Russell on the floor. At the same time, on the perimeter, my God, I mean, you can't put the ball on the floor in space against him. He's going to have several steals, you know, a game. I really love. I really love.

love their freshman juju Reese. This kid to me has the look of a future NBA player, and I know there will be nights this year where we will be like, huh? Because he's young and he's not yet put on that muscle. You know, he had the ball taken away from him last night, couldn't finish a couple of times. But a year from now, or maybe a year and a half from now, I think it's a lookout this dude has it situation. What do you think? Yeah, yeah, he's, you know, this thing I like about him, Kevin, is I've been to practice where he just dominates in practice. So he's not, a lot of freshmen will, you know, will shine a little bit in the games.

He's played well every time I've seen him play, which is now probably nine or ten times when you throw in practices and scrimmages and these exhibitions and stuff. So I love him. He's also a lefty, and he's got a little different game than most post-players do. he does have a lot to learn, you know, on the block, he turns over the same shoulder every single time. But he, much like Wahab, I love the stroke he's got when he gets to the free throw line. He's able to shoot face-up jump shots. He's got a very, very bright future for sure.

And last night for about two minutes, and I think it was the first half, he and Wahab played together. And I mean, I kind of like to see that a little bit. just in college basketball, I'm so far away from that. You know, two big guys playing together. You know, it's such a spacing dependent game. But those two guys are a problem. You know, they can both really score.

I wonder if we'll see a little bit of that moving forward. Can we shoot the three? It looks like he's got a good stroke. Can he stretch it? Actually, they both can. And I asked, well, Hobb, after the game last night, I said, you come up top a couple of times in the offense when they run a little, you know, some continuity stuff.

And I said, I've seen you shoot three. You ever think about pulling the trigger in the game? And he said, oh, I will. I will. That's awesome. I will. But Reese looks like a true stretch four possibility. Yeah, he could shoot.

They both could shoot the three. And I think you're going to see that from time to time. They both got games that are expanding all the time. And I think Reese also, you know, you know, You know, he's had to deal with Wahab in practice every single day. That's made him better, too. You know, you're not going to get, you're not going to develop playing against the, you know, a series of tomato cans like that.

Like, you know, so those guys going at each other has been very, very beneficial for both. He also, and I'm looking at the box score last night, somebody messed it up because he had a block shot last night, and it shows that he had zero blocks. I mean, he smacked one, you know, broke from the backside. And he is a natural shot blocker. You can see it. He's got great timing and then he's got the long arms and the athleticism. One more observation through two games.

Obviously subject to change. But I do not see Ian Martinez being the backup point guard. He does not handle the ball well enough. He's not comfortable enough initiating the offense. I'm sure there is a place for him on the floor. And I think that he can stroke it. I think he can defend and he looks like an athlete. but I think when Russell's off the floor, IAla has got to move to the point.

I think you may actually see Hakeem Hart play a little bit more. Okay. Yeah. Yeah, I think that might be it. And I'm also going to beg to differ with your, the one thing you said about stats, you know, in terms of big guards posting him up, I'm going to tell you, for four years, teams have tried to post him up. He's learned how to do it.

He's very strong. He's extremely athletic. very smart. He knows how to front the post. He knows how to fight guys off in the paint. They did try to post him up a little bit last night. He was having none of it. I just, I don't think that that's not nearly the concern for me that, you know,

the backup point guard is a little bit of a concern, but they have other options. I do like what Martinez gives you the athletic quotient. He gives you berserk how, how good he is as an athlete. I think he's going to get better and better. I'm just not sure it says. It's at point guard. I agree. It's going to help for sure.

Yeah, on Russell, by the way, you can't put the ball on the floor anywhere near him. Like, it's a true post-up. Don't, you know, don't try to back him down. His hands are so quick he anticipates so well. Like, if you expose that thing, like, on a spin move, he's going to be, that ball's going. That ball's going the other way. Yeah, it's over. All right.

Thanks for doing this. When are you going to be on? When are you going to be on the fan next? You know what? It's subject to a little bit of the Terps schedule, and they usually call me or email me over the weekend and ask me about this particular date. I'll probably be at some point on next week.

The show is overtime after Grant and Danny. 630 to 9. Is Vermont any good? Yeah, they're pretty good. They're competitive. They're not. I don't think they'll have the level of athleticism that GW had.

And GW, by the way, you know, every team, there are a lot of teams that have really exploited the transfer portal, and God bless them. I mean, that's a good way to get good in a hurry. I thought he did a nice job, Kevin. One of the reasons why I like the portal is that it gives guys a chance to transfer for the right reasons. For instance, Joe Mammothill. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

So, yeah. He got such a good game for GW. He got no run at Virginia Tech. He scored 35 points his entire career at Virginia Tech. Now, he gets a chance to play 35 minutes. He transferred down a little bit, goes to GW. Now of a sudden, he's averaging 22 again. And so some guys will use it because they're just pissed, you know,

and they don't think they're getting the run they deserve. Other guys, you know, use it for the right reasons. And Vammerville is one of those guys. I, GW exploited the portal and did a nice job with it with those guards. I always liked Lindo. I think you did too. And I don't know. I think he would have played last year or he would have deserved to have played in terms of talent.

He can stroke it. He's always been this underrated volume rebounder. I'm happy for him. I mean, I think he already, he's averaging near double double in the first two games for GW. Yeah, yeah. I mean, in Washington play last night, he would help this Terps team. I know. be in that rotation for sure.

Of course, the person that would have really helped this Terps team is in the G-League. I don't even know where Aaron Williams is right now. He's in the G-League. Thanks for doing this. Appreciate it. I'll talk to you soon. All right, buddy. Thanks.

Chris Nocky, everybody. Always good to catch up with Nocki. Up next, my good friend Tim Murray, we will talk college football. I've got my smell test for you. Tim will listen in on the smell testing, give his own picks. for the weekend as well, right after these words from a few of our sponsors. This segment is brought to you by MyBooky. Go to MyBooky.ag or MyBooky.com.

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MyBooky.com, mybooky.ag, promo code Kevin D.C. All right, let's bring in my good friend, Tim Murray. Tim, of course, with Veezin out in Vegas. Tim is with Aaron. Aaron, you know, produces his radio show, which he now hosts 10 to 1. Eastern on the Visa Network, which is the Brent Musburger Network. He also is a hardworking man who gets up every morning West Coast time at like 5 a.m. and does a hit on Milwaukee Radio.

Many of you who have followed our station over the years know that Zabe did this thing in Milwaukee for many years, and now Zabe hosts a morning show in Milwaukee. He doesn't live in Milwaukee. And then Tim filled in for Zab's old station. and you've been doing that for a long time now. The whole Milwaukee thing. I mean, you're another Milwaukee guy from D.C. who now lives in Vegas. Yes, very complicated. But yes, I took over when Dave left.

They tried out a bunch of people. I had hung out with Bob and Brian, I don't know, like four or five years prior, out at Zabe Vegas when I was doing Zabe's morning show nationally. And they tried me out. And here I am, yeah, about three years. years later, just renewed with them. So it's going to be a couple more years at minimum. Wonderful people up there in the great city of Milwaukee. And I went up there this summer. It's a beautiful place. I don't know if you've been there, Kev. But yeah, I've been doing a little over three years. And don't make me out to be this incredible hard worker just yet.

It's six, not five. So that extra hour of sleep is much needed. So I get up at six, jump on the radio and then get the day rolling. Don't you find it so interesting that our good friend Steve Zabin has become Mr. Green Bay, Mr. Milwaukee. I mean, I swear to God, I think he is more interested and more of a fan of teams in Wisconsin than he is in teams in D.C. Well, the basketball team just won a championship. The football team has, you know, a record of, what, 30.

three and eight over the last two or so years. So I mean, I'm not saying he should, but he's doing a full-time morning show. And look, I've listened to this podcast for quite some time, Kev. I think the way the football team treats us, I get it, man. I don't have that passion for them anymore, and I think a lot of people share it. But I can't imagine jumping to another team. Yeah, and I think Stilton's heart to heart He's still a Washington fan

I just think that he is trying to embrace And, you know, he's getting radio stations relatively young, so he's probably trying to build it up a little bit So I'll give him a little bit of the past I get, I get what he's doing it If you put truth serum in those veins He's a Washington County in Hartman's through and through I think he is changed

But let me just say Just so nobody gets the wrong idea Zabe is a close friend of mine and of all of ours, and I really am very unhappy with him over the last year because I wish he were on local radio still, on a station that I am on. I think that, you know, Zabe not being a part of local radio anymore is a massive loss.

But anyway, let's move on. Before we get to my smell test, which I actually want you to participate in, Let's talk a little college football right now. Who's the second best team in the country right now to Georgia? That's a phenomenal question. It's not that phenomenal. I guess Ohio State.

I don't feel confident in saying it. The reason I say Ohio State is I don't believe Alabama is going to beat Georgia. I also think Alabama could lose to Auburn, not saying it's likely, but could lose to Auburn, which would bounce them from the SEC championship. So I would default say Ohio State, I want to see what Oklahoma has this weekend. You know, Caleb Williams has given them new life offensively. But any time I start to buy into Oklahoma, they lay a turd. And it's not like they've really looked that great altogether.

you know, and then it's certainly not Cincinnati. You know, I tell you a team that's been playing well, but I don't want to hear from because you lost too bad games. Texas A&M's playing well. They really are. But they don't deserve an opportunity, in my opinion, for the playoffs because you can't lose two games that you should win. So I guess it would be Ohio State at a default.

Who do you think? I actually think it is Alabama, but it's not like so strongly Alabama like it would have been in recent years. I think actually last week's result was the most jarring out of all of them. And honestly, Kevin, if you had asked me last week, I would have said Alabama. But that performance where they really snatch victory from the jaws of defeat against LSU at home against a pretty mediocre football team in LSU. Yes, they have talent, but let's be serious. If you're the number two team, you need to take care of business.

You're a 29 and a half point favorite, and they had the ball inside the 30-yard line three different times in the fourth quarter, and you didn't score the final 27 minutes and change. So they could change my mind, not this weekend against New Mexico State. Yeah, I mean, I would probably, yeah, I think last week has kind of spooked me, and I also don't think that Alabama is making the playoffs. So that's why I left them off. So you don't think Alabama makes the playoff as a two-loss, close SEC championship loser to Georgia?

I don't unless things work out their way. You know, I think Oregon's in a tricky spot next weekend at Utah. There'll be an underdog there. Believe me, they will. And then you've got, you know, Oklahoma, who's still undefeated. And they have yet to, and I know that the committee changes every year, but they have yet to invite or have a two-loss conference champion in, let alone two-loss non-conference champ. Now, if they had not lost that game to Texas A&M, Kevin, it would be a different story. It would be a lock that two of these teams are getting in.

I just think that if you've got undefeated Cincinnati sitting there, you've got undefeated Oklahoma, one lost Oregon, one lost, Ohio State, they're not getting in. And even if one of those teams has two losses, I think it's going to be a tricky thing to try to get Alabama in with two losses. But that is the conversation. If they lose close, are they going to get in? I do not think so. Yeah, I think the fact that they remain at two after last week's performance tells you what the committee thinks of them. Now, you know, they can play their way out of it with a blowout loss to Georgia. I think that they'll have a difficult game actually in the Iron Bowl at Auburn. I really liked Auburn last week, and I was dead wrong on it. I thought they were really playing much better. I'm going to tell you

right now that I think that Michigan is a really good team. And I'm not suggesting that they're the number two team in the country by any stretch, but I do think that they were, I think they got completely hosed in the Michigan State game. The league came out and admitted the errors that they made. I thought that was their most impressive performance. They blew a big lead. I mean, give Michigan State credit for the comeback, but man, was it aided by some horrendous officiating and one-sided officiating? I'm going to be very interested about tomorrow's game in State College because it does reek a little bit the point spread. And you would think, you would, you know me, you would think it's going to be in the smell test. I will tell you, it's not. If Michigan goes in there and really handles a

Penn State team who was very competitive in Columbus a few weeks ago, I'm going to think that Michigan's going to have a chance in the big house on Thanksgiving weekend. And if they do, and then they get into a Big Ten title game, they can actually work their way into the playoff. They're not out of it. They control their own fate. You would agree with that, right? Oh, all three Big Ten teams. Yeah, they do. They all control their own fate because Ohio State, they've got the one loss of Oregon. Obviously, they've got, you know, Michigan and Michigan State remaining. Michigan's got Penn State this weekend, as you alluded to, then Ohio State and Michigan State, who that one might be in your smell test, I would guess.

Michigan State, take it on Maryland. I've got a little. No, I thought you were talking about Ohio State. Oh, well, yeah, that one, too. I've got a little nugget for you on those two games here when you do your smell test. But, yeah, no, both are both definitely control their own destiny when it comes to the playoff. I guess there could be carnage. They could do a little round-robin situation, and that could really mess things up playoff-wise.

But, yeah, I don't disagree. You know, I do think the committee raised some eyebrows, and they shouldn't have done it. I mean, look, I hear what you're saying. And I think Michigan's better than Michigan State. But games have to matter. They did lose. No, Harbaugh should have never put in McCrull. Carcy when he did. But I think Michigan, it all settle itself out. I think Michigan State's going

to lose at least one more, if not two more. They still play Penn State too. I just don't think they're good. They're not that good. And yeah, I think it's going to come down to, I kind of hope, you know, as a college football fan, that that game on Thanksgiving weekend at noon Eastern in in Michigan is going to mean a lot. And I think if Michigan takes care of business this weekend, I think it will be a pair of 10-and-one teams playing each other on Thanksgiving weekend. If Cincinnati runs the table, do you think they get in? I do because I think Oregon's going to, I think Oregon's going to lose next weekend

in Utah. Well, you also think Alabama is going to drop a second game. I do. So, you know, we've been talking about this for weeks, and I have continued to be, Everyone's freaking out about them being sick and all this. And I just, I went on the air and I said, look, the scenario is easy. You need Oregon or Oklahoma to get out of the way and you need Alabama to lose to Georgia. If Alabama beats Georgia, they're done.

They're not getting in. But if Alabama loses, sorry, if Alabama beats Georgia, they're done. If Alabama loses to Georgia, I think they're out. I think if Oregon stubbed its toe because they already have that loss to Stanford, whether it be next weekend to Utah or at the Big, the Pact 12 championship here in Vegas, to Arizona State or Utah again, whatever it may be, I think Cincinnati gets in. Do they deserve to get in? Honestly, the last three weeks, they don't look like a playoff team to me,

being life and death with Tulsa, needing, you know, barely eeking past Navy, and then Navy goes to Notre Dame and doesn't even score a touchdown. But at the end of the day, they beat Notre Dame, very impressively. It wasn't fluky. They were up 17-0 at the half. half. They won by double digits. Notre Dame keeps on winning. That game might be in your smell test, too, if I had to guess. So, yeah, I would say Cincinnati, my guess is if they go on the feed, I think they get in at the four-seed. And unfortunately for them, Kevin, I think

last year Cincinnati team was better. And I think they get smoked by Georgia this year. Well, they get smoked by George in the Sugar Bowl, if my memory serves me correctly. No, no, no, no, no. No, they had the lead in that game. They almost won that. I should. have won that game. Yeah, but didn't, I had Georgia in that game. Didn't they ultimately cover or not? They might have got a backdoor, but that game was actually dominated. No, no, no, you're right.

24-21, I just looked it up. Yeah. But what am I forgetting about that? I forget what I thought about that game. Anyway, do any of the one-loss teams that we haven't mentioned, you know, and I'll hit on two of them, Notre Dame and Oklahoma State primarily, we've already mentioned. Michigan State and Michigan and Ohio State, obviously, is won lost teams. Do either one of those teams have any prayer if they run the table?

Oklahoma State does. Notre Dame's done. And I'm a Notre Dame fan. Look, I've thought of every scenario. I mean, we could get really weird and try to figure out a scenario. Notre Dame gets in, like, Wisconsin runs the table, wins the Big Ten. Notre Dame's win over Wisconsin then is that much better. Cincinnati loses two games.

It's not happening. The committee has shown that they don't think Notre Dame is the top four team. I don't disagree. And Notre Dame, their final three games are Virginia unranked. Georgia Tech losing record. Stanford, the disaster. So I don't know how Notre Dame gets in. Oklahoma State, absolutely, Kevin.

They run the table, beat Oklahoma twice. They're in. I really believe it. So I think if you're 12 and one Oklahoma State, you've got a shot. Do I think it'll happen? No. But I think Oklahoma State still has a shot. I think Texas A&M, like if you want to talk crazy long shot, has a crazy long shot.

Because if Auburn beats Alabama, then Texas A&M holds the tie break over Alabama due to head-to-head. Let's say they get into the conference championship. You're not leaving out an SEC champion. So if Texas A&M gets into the SEC championship and beats undefeated Georgia, Texas A&M is getting in. So I think if you're looking at long, long shots and the first two lost team to get in, I think Texas A&M has a prayer. That's only if Auburn beats Alabama or Arkansas, I guess, because they play next week to set things up for the SEC championship. All right.

Last thought, and then we'll get to my smell test and your picks as well to end the show today. It's a weird year. And, you know, even Georgia, who, you know, I said to somebody recently, maybe Schlebeah or somebody, I think it was Stanford, Steve. I said, I don't know that I've ever seen a defense with this much NFL talent on it. It's been a while. And I think defensively they're great. But offensively, a lot to be desired there.

Like, there is not, to me, I mean, Georgia's undefeated. You know, Stetson Bennett, you pressure him, and they could make some backbreaking plays. I mean, I actually think tomorrow could be closer than people thinking. I'm not a big Tennessee fan. But there just isn't like an obvious, I think everybody would say Georgia, but to me there's not an obvious team that's going to be in the title game definitively. I could see any of these teams losing when they get to the final four. I could, too, and that's kind of, you know, for the sport that we love so much, it needs something like this.

Now, I think Cincinnati getting in would be beneficial just to the sport. Honestly, I don't really care because I'll watch it regardless, and I love it. But, yeah, I mean, if you told me Oklahoma won the national title or Michigan or Ohio State or Alabama or Georgia, I wouldn't be stunned. I really wouldn't, you know, because I think Caleb Williams brings a different. different piece to the puzzle for Oklahoma. You know, we do this every year, though. We talk ourselves into Oklahoma.

Then they go to the playoffs and they get their ass kicked. But I think this is a weird year. And, yeah, it's funny because I'm sitting here. And I'm thinking, you know, Georgia's, like, even money to win the national championship. And they're not LSU from a couple years ago, where that team is one the greatest college football teams we've ever seen. They take care of business.

They're unbelievable defensively. but yeah when stepson bennett's your quarterback or j t daniels if he comes back in i don't know it just doesn't it doesn't spook me like a lot of other teams have in the past ultimately i think they win it because they are the best team and most complete team and they've got some weapons offensively that tight end that freshman is just a stud uh but no i i i really wouldn't be surprised you know ohio state i keep expecting them to kind of turn it on and i think they will this weekend and But defensively they got issues, man. They really do.

All right. Let's get to my smell test. Kevin looks where the John Q public is putting their cash and does the opposite. It's time for the smell test. All right. Don't forget to subscribe to the podcast. It doesn't cost you a thing. Rate us and review us wherever you can, especially on Apple.

Five stars would be nice. And just a quick one-sentence review mentioning how much you like the podcast. that really does help us, and it's much appreciated for those of you who have done it here recently. Tim Murray is with me. Tim hosts 10 p.m. to 1 a.m. Eastern Standard Time weekdays. The nightcap was Sean King, former Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback for the Visa Network. He's been living out in Vegas with Aaron. By the way, not living together.

They live separately. They're both married. They did when they first got out there. But Aaron, in addition to producing this podcast, also producing. Tim's radio show out in Vegas, and he's been very successful with it out there. And they talk about gambling primarily on all of these shows. It is a sports betting network. Okay, so last week, I forget whether or not we texted each other back and forth on this.

I went eight and six last week. I felt like it was a missed opportunity, to be honest with you. But whatever. I'm not having a great year. I am currently 12 games under 500, a lot of year to go. But I did say last week, Tim, that Purdue, for me last week, was the example, the definition of what the smell test is. A smell test pick was really reflected in the Purdue Michigan State game as much as any game of the year.

And there's always several of them. But, you know, Michigan State coming off that win over Michigan being number three in the country in the college football rankings and playing an unranked team, even though they had beaten Iowa, playing an unranked team in only laying three. Like it was the quintessential smell test pick. And it came through. I was, unfortunately, I didn't get everything right and I got a couple wrong. I had the 49ers minus two. I would have given that out. By the way, I would have changed that to the minus four and a half minus five,

which is where the game went to before kick, but it never had a chance. Anyway, let's start with tomorrow. I don't have a lot of games tomorrow. You mentioned a couple that you thought I might have, Maryland, Virginia, and they were on the list, but I canceled them off the list, as I did with Penn State. But there are three that I like that totally fit, you know, not only the anti-public, but sharp money as well. And we'll start with a big one tomorrow.

Baylor hosting Oklahoma. Baylor coming off a loss to TCU and TCU's first game without Gary Patterson. They lost outright as a seven-and-a-half-point favorite. A real big blow to any hope that Baylor may have had. And they're home against an Oklahoma team that, you know, we know now three weeks ago, literally was on the ropes at Kansas, which is one of the stunning results of the year that Kansas was up 10-0 against Oklahoma and down 2823 and had a fourth down stop until Caleb Williams stole the ball from his running back and turned it into a first down.

They handled Texas Tech last week. They've been rolling, but man, if you've watched Oklahoma this year, you know that you're not sure about them. I mean, I go back to that West Virginia game. They could have easily lost that. That was a Spencer Rattler game, not a Caleb Williams game. The line is less than a touchdown. It's actually less than six.

It's at five and a half. The public's all over Oklahoma. Give me Baylor. So last week's Purdue pick, which actually came through, they were a three-point dog against Michigan State, an undefeated number three team in the college football rankings. And this week, they're in Columbus to face Ohio. Ohio State that isn't undefeated and isn't ranked as high as Michigan State was a week ago.

And the Buckeyes are laying 21. Obviously, this fits perfectly. I hate when it fits with a big favorite. But Ohio State being a 21-point favorite and Michigan State being a three-point favorite last week. And Purdue winning that game convincingly. And now they're on the road getting 21. Well, yeah, that reeks to high heaven. The public loves the underdog here,

which is not typically the case with underdogs. I will lay the 21 and take the Buckeyes. And then the other game, Timmy, that I like, is Florida State in Miami. Miami's been rolling. They've won three games in a row. And by the way, the three wins that Miami has, two of them are against pretty decent teams.

They beat Pitt on the road. They beat NC State. And by the way, I think NC State's good. They beat Georgia Tech. All of them have been close games. Florida State, beaten by NC State last week, beaten by Clemson in that crazy, you know, pitch it around play at the end of the game for the cover. But Florida State's only getting two and a half in this game.

Miami, the fact that it's two and a half and not three. By the way, buy it to three, and I'm buying it to three, and I'm giving it out plus three as part of the smell test, because you're all going to have it at plus three. But that line reeks a little bit. Florida State's not very good, and they're getting way too much respect, and there must be a reason why. Those are the three college picks. Baylor plus five and a half, Ohio State minus 21, and Florida State plus three. I do like Virginia, as you suspected. I do like Maryland a little bit.

I do like Colorado State a little bit on Saturday as well. But just three picks. I think it's the fewest number I've given out all year in college. Let's move to the NFL, and I'll rip through these quickly. Tennessee coming off that big win Sunday night over the Rams are laying just three to a team that lost at home to the Falcons last week in the Saints. the public's all over Tennessee, one of the biggest public plays of the weekend. I'll take the Saints plus the three. Washington fits the smell test this week.

It's under 10. The bucks lost by week. People think that they're going to get back on track and that if you can lay less than 10, that's a perfect number. I'll take Washington plus the nine and a half. I have no idea how they do it because I don't think they can win this game. but it's the NFL, and we saw all the big dogs cover last week. We saw another one last night in Miami cover and went outright as well.

The Vikings have been good to me this year in the smell test. Last week I had them against Baltimore, plus six. That game went to plus seven. They lost by three. Actually, should have had a two-score lead twice in the game and blew it. And this week they go to face the Chargers who beat the Eagles last week. you would certainly think on the road against the Ravens, on the road against the Chargers, that there wouldn't be, you know, a four-point difference in the line.

They're only getting three in L.A. against the Chargers. Now, the Vikings have COVID issues this week. Keep an eye on that game because if they end up ruling out a lot of players, that game won't be a pick. You know, wait on this game. If it goes to five and a half six because of COVID issues, just stay the hell off of it. If it stays at three and Minnesota's got their players or most of them in the game, Harrison Smith is not vaccinated. He's not playing after testing positive right before the Baltimore game last week. But that line is short.

I'll take the Vikings plus the three. And then I like the 49ers on Monday night. They're getting four at home on Monday night against the Rams. Everybody's on the Rams this week. The 49ers seem to be in disarray. By the way, a lot of people starting to question Kyle Schen. And look, other than that Super Bowl run, the record ain't that impressive. But either has the quarterbacking been very impressive.

They have really struggled a quarterback. I like the Niners, though, to win or to cover, but maybe win their first home game in like two years, it seems like. So there it is. Three tomorrow. Baylor plus five and a half. Florida State plus three buying the hook. Ohio State minus 21. and then the Saints plus three, the Vikings plus three, Washington plus nine and a half,

the 49ers plus four on Monday night. Oh, I missed one. The Eagles plus three by the hook, by the half point at Denver. I know I had the Eagles last week as well. I actually think the Eagles are just better than people understand, and they could have won that game against the Chargers last week. And I've said this many times before. my biggest prop bet in the offseason, Tim, was the Eagles over seven plus 120.

So I really want them to start winning some games. And they've got a schedule that features Washington twice, the Giants twice, and the Jets. And then they finish with Dallas at the end of the year where Dallas may have nothing to play for. They have the Broncos this week. The Broncos coming off that big win. The public's all over Denver after what they saw last week. Give me Philly. So throw them in there as well.

All right. What do you think about the picks? What are you surprised I didn't have in there? And then give me some of your plays for this weekend as well. So on the way home last night from Circa, so that's where I do my show. It's in downtown Las Vegas on Tremont Street. And then I live in Henderson. So it's about 30 minutes drive. And on my way home, I had to make a stop. Because the South Point doesn't do juice numbers. So those who don't know, if the number's trending one way through a key number, Kev, right? They'll juice it one way or the other. So let's say they'll make it minus three, but you have to pay $1.20 on the juice. So South Point

doesn't do that. They do minus 110 no matter what it is. That's their philosophy. So guess what game I played? I stopped by, and I took New Orleans plus the three. It was the only non-juice three in town. You know, Tennessee's won five straight. Four straight is an outright underdog, and they're at home, and they're only getting three. I knew. you'd be on New Orleans. And then going back to college, I'm with you, man. It is a weird week. I've been staring at it.

You know, it's my job. And I'm trying to find the games that fit our model of the little fischiness. And it's hard this week. But a Purdue definitely does. And what I was going to tell you, my kind of tease, was that last night we had Chris Andrews on. So Chris Andrews is a sports book director at the South Point. And two weeks ago, I texted him, and he let me know the

the glorious numbers that Michigan State against Purdue was an 11-1 ticket count on the Spartan. And the number didn't move, which just is a clear indicator that Purdue was the right side. We knew it right away. I think we texted that that line would be suspiciously short. It was, didn't move. Purdue went out right. Wake was also, or UNC, excuse me, was also for me last week, too. So going back to what Chris Andrews said last night, he said that Ohio State is,

or sorry, Purdue, guess what? Two to one ticket count on Purdue. Yeah. It is a trendy dog. And as Chris let us know, and as we know, beware of the trendy dogs. So I played Ohio State at a principal at minus 20 and a half. Michigan State at the South Point, eight to one ticket count on the Spartan. But the line has not moved against Maryland.

Maryland getting 13. I haven't played it personally. I don't trust this Maryland team. but I think it does fit the smell test a little bit. He did say a little reverse line movement in the Iowa-Mnesota game. He said it's about a 4-1 ticket count on Iowa, believe it or not, at home. Minnesota looked terrible last week. Yeah, and they lost Illinois.

So I played Minnesota plus the five. I think they fit our model a little bit there. So that was a 4-to-1 ticket count. He did say Notre Dame is about 4-to-1 ticket count. You know, the thing I'll say about Notre Dame Virginia real quickly, Kevin, you know I'm a Notre Dame fan. I'm a Homer. But I think there's a sneaky suspicion. Brendan Armstrong may not play this game.

I just keep an eye on that. The Virginia quarterback. He's unbelievable. And he was playing BYU two weeks ago. They were off last week, two weeks ago, late-night game. And he got out of the game and he pointed to his ribs. He goes, my ribs are broken. and next week Virginia plays at Pitt with a chance to win the coastal division.

This is a prime time game against the top 10 team, but at the end of the day, it doesn't really mean anything. So I'd be curious to see how healthy he is if they pull them. So I would stay away from Notre Dame, Virginia, in my opinion, even though it probably does fit our stinky theory. And then I'll give you one game that I like. I'll give you a couple games that are intriguing to me that I've personally played. I played Arkansas. I wrote them down. Yep.

So Arkansas, LSU last week, we talked about a little bit, right? So they go to Alabama, 29 and a half point underdogs. First drive of the game, they fake a punt. They end up going for fourth down seven times in that game. Ed Orgeron's on the sidelines, dancing after the game. He said we weren't scared. We came here to win. expected to win. And now, Kevin, they have to turn around and play Arkansas, who is just a team

that you don't want to play in this type of situation, a team that runs the ball down your throat, top five rushing team in the country. And LSU, who almost just beat number two Alabama, and you can argue outplayed Alabama, they're catching points at home in a night game, which is thought to be one of the most daunting environments out there. And Arkansas is laying points. Arkansas. I like Arkansas. I played them at two and a half. And then a game that I don't have a great feel on. I did play it at two and a half. I actually played Money Line. The wise guys seem to be backing San Diego State this week. This game opened Nevada and San Diego State around a pick. Nevada has a first round quarterback in Carson Strong. San Diego State is inept offensively, but they are top 25. And now this game has got up to three. I like San Diego. State a little bit. I don't love them. But my favorite play probably is Arkansas. I think this is a tricky spot. I compared it to the Rams Lions game. Remember when Dan Campbell faked two punts and went on side. And then the following week, the Lions were a trendy underdog and lost like 38 to the

Eagle. I feel like this is a spot where LSU just can't keep that energy up. And I like Arkansas to run it down their throat. Yeah, they were one of the, you know, on the complete, you know, LSU spent everything last week. And by the way, historically, the week following the LSU Bama game, bet against both of those teams. Bama's playing somebody awful in his laying like 50, one and a half. Yeah. And LSU's got a tough game, which by the way, in many ways, is a borderline kind of rivalry game between the two teams in a weird way. But I'm with you in Arkansas. The Maryland thing, oh, wait, before I forget, you do know that the Wake North Carolina game last week was not a conference game. Yeah, that's crazy. So the Maryland thing, to me,

what threw me, I got, saw that all the public money was on Michigan State. It's just that the line was higher than Michigan State's really been. Like if that, you know how I think, if that line It had been six or seven, and I'd be all over, Maryland. It's 13. I mean, it's less than two touchdowns. But Michigan State hasn't been given a ton of respect all year long, you know, in games. I mean, they were a four-point favorite at Rutgers. I had Rutgers for the limit that week.

They were a four-point favorite against Indiana. And they were won by five. And I had to hear it forever for my partner who laid it with Michigan State. I'm like, they were the wrong. side. I'm sorry. They were the wrong side. I was on Indiana. But we finally got it. We finally got it last week against Sparty. That's why I'm off it, because the 13 for them is a massive number. And teams that are similar to Maryland, a team that Maryland beat in Indiana, a team that Maryland will likely have to beat to become bowl eligible in Rutgers. You know, you had Michigan

State laying short numbers, too. I don't know. That worries me a little bit that the number is just so high in that particular game. I think the game that really people that follow the way I pick and the way you pick, people are probably stunned that I'm not on Penn State. And I have, like, I've had sort of these feelings about certain games that look like. they should fit the smell test criteria. And I'm like, nah, it's almost too obvious.

By the way, I kind of felt that way a little bit about the Iowa State, Oklahoma State game, when they were a seven-point favorite. I thought, you know, Oklahoma State's actually pretty good. And, you know, Iowa State didn't cover in that game. And there was another game recently I felt that way about, and I forget what it was. But I think Michigan's good. I know that this goes, you know, in conflict with the smell test theory, which is don't think you know anything about these teams that doesn't play into it,

but sometimes the public's right. So it wouldn't surprise me if the public is right on Michigan tomorrow, laying the point in half, which is why I'm staying off it. I do think that Penn State is very good defensively. I think they are exceptional defensively. And I think it's a tough luck season for them because I think if Clifford didn't get hurt in the Iowa game, they would have beaten Iowa badly, by the way. They were well on their way to doing that.

And I also think that they would have beaten Illinois because I don't think Clifford was totally 100% in that one too. And then they played obviously much better against Ohio State. That may have been their most impressive performance of the year. And then last week didn't look great against Maryland, but they got the win. I think Penn State is a good team, but I think Michigan's a good team too. By the way, I wanted to mention one other thing. I kind of like Wisconsin this week. They're laying a big number to Northwestern.

And Tim, they're killing teams right now. Tim, Wisconsin, right now, they may be next to Georgia, the best defensive team in America. And it would not surprise me if they win the Big Ten title. The problem with them is their quarterback, in my opinion.

I think Mertz stinks. But they're starting to run the football and that you can't, you can't budge. against them. Now, we'll see what Ohio State can do, you know, but they have pummeled people here over the last couple of weeks. And look, Iowa's not a great offensive team. Purdue is. Purdue's been scoring a lot of points, and they completely shut them down. I think that Wisconsin's going to run the table here and be in that Big Ten title game against, you know, either Michigan, Ohio

State or Michigan State. The Big Ten is going to be a lot of fun these last three weeks of the season. A lot of fun. to watch. I mean, so much on the line. A playoff spot definitely on the line. And like you said, there could be some carnage. There could be some carnage that leads to no big 10 teams making it. It's very possible that, you know, Ohio State could lose to Michigan State but beat Michigan or could lose to Purdue. And then Wisconsin beats the East winner anyway, making everything null and void. That's in play this year, but the last three weeks and the Big Ten title game are going to be fun to watch for sure. Yeah, and I watched, I was there for Wisconsin, Notre Dame, and that scores incredibly misleading. Maybe the most misleading score of the season.

Wisconsin was up 1310 at the beginning of the fourth quarter. I had Wisconsin that day. Yeah. The two pick sixes, a fumble, kickoff return. Kickoff return, yeah. Yeah, so one final game I'll just kind of put on people's radar. I think you're looking at a letdown look-ahead situation with Oregon. Next week I mentioned Oregon goes to Utah.

No doubt their biggest game of the season. They just played Washington. You could say Washington stinks. But if you watch that game, that game means a lot to Oregon. That's a rivalry game. They hate Washington. And now you've got to go home and you play Washington State. You're laying 14.

Washington State since Lulovich got fired is one in one but two and no against the spread. They're coming off a bowl. buy. I would take the 14 with Washington State. Chris Felica always puts out really good nuggets. And Mario Cristobal as a double-digit favorite, O and 7 ATS in his last seven chances. So I think Washington State is frisky, and I think this is an important game for them,

national stage on the road at Oregon. I would look towards the Coogs if you can get two touchdowns here. All right, thanks. Enjoy the rest of the week. I'll talk to you later. Tim Murray, everybody, at one Tim. Murray on Twitter. That's it for the day. Back tomorrow.