The Kevin Sheehan Show - Picking Washington In An Upset

Episode Date: September 11, 2026

Kevin opened with his keys to a Washington win over the Eagles along with a prediction on the game. Jay Gruden jumped on with his thoughts on the Commanders' 2026 campaign along with his first "NFL Lock of the Week". Kevin finished up the show with 8 "Smell Test" picks. Exclusive High Roller bonus designed for bettors who want more firepower for this season. Double your money all the way up to $5000. Minimum deposit $1500. Use my promo code “DCVIP” at https://www.mybookie.ag/signup/?affid=3910. So if you are looking for that perfect gift, or want to impress your friends and family with an epic meal the next time you host, go to GOLDBELLY.com and get 20% off your first order with promo code sheehan. Use my link ThriveMarket.com/sheehan to get $30 off your first two orders. You cannot get this deal on the website — it’s only through my link. That right there covers your membership fee, so sign up now before this exclusive offer ends.” ADDITIONAL TWENTY PERCENT OFF better plants and better growing at Trees.com using the code SHEEHAN at checkout. Try QUO for free PLUS get 20% off your first 6 months when you go to Quo.com/SHEEHAN. Download the app today and use code SHEEHAN to get $150 instantly in Lineups if you win your first $5 Lineup! “PrizePicks. Run Your Game.” Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Sheehan Show. Here's Kevin. We have finally arrived at our first full football Friday show of 2026. Last week was a football Friday show, but it did not include NFL. This week includes NFL, and there was a game last night, if you want to call it a game last night,

which we will get to. But yes, on today's show, Washington beats Philadelphia if my keys to a win over the Eagles on Sunday coming up here shortly along with my prediction on the game. And then five NFL smell test picks in the final segment of today's show to go with three college plays. So eight smell test picks in total. That will follow Jay Gruden's first appearance on the show. he will be with me every Friday during football season once again.

The show's presenting sponsor is always, Window Nation, 86690 Nation, windownation.com if you need new windows. Last night was ugly, man, all the way around if you're a Rams believer, a Rams fan. But man, I wouldn't jump off a bridge quite yet. That is a true week one outlier. I believe that. the travel may or may not have had something to do to do with it. They clearly looked like the team that was tired, sluggish.

The 49ers had been there for over a week. They looked energetic. And look, the 49ers, week one or not, reminded everybody that when they are healthy, they have great players on their team. And oh, by the way, Kyle Shanahan's a pretty damn good coach. Did you see what they did to Miles Garrett? Miles Garrett had zero tackles, had zero sacks. had one pressure in the game.

Now, they're claiming he wasn't 100% for the game, but it was screen after screen, it was chipping, it was doubling, it was cracking down on Miles Garrett. One of the great defensive players of all time in his first game against their big rival in the division, I know that Seattle is as well, but he looked pedestrian.

No Aaron Donald, he did not make the trip. The 49ers, looked awesome. They ran the ball at will. Who knows how this will play out in terms of whether or not the Rams got it right in the long term with the way they handled the travel going in and then leaving, you know, after the game or if the 49ers got it right by getting there early. Maybe the aftermath will hurt the Niners more than it will hurt the Rams. Who knows? But that trip was the outlier in NFL history in terms of the distance traveled for an NFL regular season game.

game. Neither one of them has to play until next Sunday. In the case of the Rams, it'll be a Monday night week two game. I was very impressed with the rookie running back black from Indiana. I was impressed with McCaffrey, impressed with Trent Williams, as always. It's amazing what they look like when they're healthy. Fred Warner back in the lineup and just, again, so well coached. And Brock Purdy does not get a lot of credit. for being a good quarterback, but he is. He's a very good quarterback in that system. I'm not saying he's a top 10 or an elite level quarterback,

but he is easily in that top, you know, 13 to 15 conversation in that system. He makes some decisions that are head scratchers at times, like the pick in the first half, but God, he has quick decision, quick release, and they ran a lot of quick game to keep. the pressure off of him last night. 27 to 7.

I was on the Niners plus the three and a half. I did not give it out as a smell test pick, but I did give it out as a lean. I just thought there was just too much belief in the Rams. I haven't lost any belief in the Rams. I haven't lost any belief that Drake May and the Patriots will have a good season. Week one always, as I think I've said,

once or a thousand times over the years. week one is a head fake. It really can be. The first few weeks of the season can be really difficult to gauge what it will look like at the end of the year. I mean, even New England who lost the opener to the Raiders in week one last year at home, week three, they lost to the Steelers at home. The Steelers ended up being a good team, but they looked terrible early in the season. Seattle didn't really look like the Seattle team at the end of the year until midway.

through the season takes a while in the NFL. And remember that late Sunday after Washington plays Philadelphia, no matter the result, it's one game. They're going to go ahead and, they're going to go ahead and, excuse me, and play the other 16 anyway. And it may take time for a team with two new coordinators and a lot of new players. But here we go with the NFL regular season. And yes, this is not, you know, an easy opener anytime you go on the road and play a division rival and play a division rival that is loaded on one side of the ball with players who have been there and played in the same scheme for a while. I know defense is variable, but Vic Fangio is outstanding and they have great players and they added to it.

with Jonathan Grenard and Rick Wulin. The Eagles are going to be formidable defensively this year, unless they end up having a lot of injuries. You know, last year they weren't anywhere near as good as they were the year before defensively, but still, they are capable of being dominant defensively. We do not know what we're going to get offensively with Sean Mannion being a new coordinator,

and Jalen Hertz in another new system again. I've said this since they added Sean, Manion. I don't see the fit. I see the fit with Jaden Daniels and David Blow, but I think Jalen Hertz is a quarterback that needs to be under center less and needs to be a part of the run game, to be at his best. We'll find out if that's the case starting on Sunday. It may be a slow go with them. I'm a Jalen Hertz fan. I think he's played big time football in Philadelphia his biggest games, but I think he's at his best when he is looking at the defense and he is a run threat on every offensive snap. All right. Let's get to the first Washington beats its opponent,

the Eagles this weekend if. It's a who the hell knows situation in week one, as I've said, but it really is that way when you've got two new coordinators, two new schemes on one team. And on the other team, you've got a new coordinator and a new scheme on one side of the ball. I'll throw in that Philadelphia's best player you could argue from the last few years. I mean, Sequin, Barclay, Jalen Carter, and others are up there. But A.J. Brown was one of their three or four best players, worst case. He's not there anymore. I wonder if the headache that became A.J. Brown, J.L. Hurts, and that relationship, could it be addition by subtraction? Who knows?

Lemon, the receiver they picked early on, has been injured for much of camp. Dantavian Wicks from Green Bay, manned up being, you know, a big-time receiver in Philly opposite Devante Smith. But he's never really been that. Hollywood Browns, on the roster. It's going to be interesting to see what the Eagles look like at that second receiver spot. Still have Dallas Goddard, still have Sequin Barclay, still have that offensive line, and it's healthy, and it wasn't last year. But, yeah, it's hard to know in week one with so much that is new.

But the one sort of consistent thing about this game is Philadelphia's defense coming. back. The two quarterbacks, you know, you could point to and say, you know who they are. But do you know who they are in their new systems? Not necessarily, although I'm pretty confident about Jaden in his. You know, in his new offense, as we've talked about for a while, David Blow brings to, you know, the offensive play calling and game planning a different approach. He'll mix some Cliff stuff in there. He'll mix a lot of Ben Johnson in there, and he'll mix some Kevin O'Connell, Sean McVeigh, Kyle Shanahan in there as well. What we do know is that there will be more under center, more runs that are zone runs, and less quarterback designed runs, and probably less quarterback dual threat. what is 100% a given in addition to the under center is more play action pass attempts.

They were near the bottom the last couple of years. They will be near the top this year. And I remember Cooley telling me a long time ago, you don't have to be a great run team to be a good play action team. Play action works if the pre-snap motions, formations, and then the quarterback's ball handle skills are first rate. So Blow and Jaden can really make play action work even without a dominant run game. It'll be fun to watch. I think the most interested thing for me about Sunday is just to see what all of these new defensive players in a new scheme with a new play caller, especially if it looks like a Brian Flores scheme, what that sort of plays out as. Because,

going into this season, as I talked about on yesterday's show and probably the day before that, it comes down to two things. I think the difference between a good season, a competitive season, and one that ends up being a losing season. Number one is Jaden Daniels being healthy for 17 games, or certainly the large majority of games. And number two is the defense improving. It doesn't have to be top 10, but if it could move towards the middle from where it's been the bottom and give the offense more opportunities, give the offense more field position benefit, give the offense some true turnaround off takeaway super short field situations.

This team, along with its quarterback, if it's healthy, is going to be a good team. I really feel that. All right, specific to Sunday. Washington wins if they stop the run. They've got to be a better run-stopping team, and you can't be typically a great pass rushing team if you don't put the other team into good,

favorable down in distances for your defense. We can talk about the Sequin Barclay big games against Washington the last few years. That's not the team he's facing. You know, all these new players, a new scheme, they have a new scheme. So I don't really take what's happened recently, Sequin versus our defense, into the equation much

because it really isn't applicable here, totally new defense and actually a new offensive scheme. Look, against a zone run scheme, you've got to be disciplined. You've got to cut off the cutbacks. You've got to stretch them out to the sideline, where the sideline becomes a 12th defender. Sean Mannion's going to lean, I think, on his running game with Barclay and hope that it works. And if it works to the tune of four plus yards, it makes play action and all this stuff in the past game much easier.

So stopping the run for me means holding Philly to less than four yards per carry. Number two, Washington beats Philadelphia. This is totally cliche, but so crucial, I think, Sunday. a positive turnover margin. It might be the difference between a win or at least a close game versus one that's not close. Plus two in that category, I'd have a really good, you know, optimistic view that the game's going to come down to the wire and that Washington would have a chance to win the game. They were minus 13 last year, second worst in the league, just 10 takeaways, second worst in the league. That has to change. And the Brian Flores scheme,

does create those opportunities. But you've got to stop the run first to create those pass rushing opportunities and the chance for guys like Mikey Sanders still and Amic Robertson to use their ball hawking skills to make plays. Number three, do not make this a dropback game. If Jaden's dropping back on third and longs, second and longs, that's a problem. You need favorable down in distance, whether they do it by running the ball or quick game, as their primary pass offense,

just stay in solid down-distance situations because dropping back Jaden too much against that defense, along with, yeah, some question marks along the offensive line as it relates to protection, seems like you're asking for trouble. Move the football without having to call a lot of pure drop-back passes, which means keep down in distance in your favor.

Lastly, we know. of these early season games can be sloppy. We saw it on Wednesday night. We certainly saw it with the Rams last night. Be less sloppy than Philadelphia. Don't have as many penalties. Don't waste as many timeouts. Don't miss as many tackles. Don't drop as many passes. There might be some of that, but don't have more than the opponent. Be the cleaner team on Sunday. And if you are, they've got a chance to win it. And guess what? I am predicting a win. I love the way this sets up from a betting standpoint. You'll hear that in the smell test. I think Washington goes in and wins the opener 27 to 24 in overtime. And there's a big turnover

in overtime after Philadelphia gets the ball first that Washington then takes over and plays for the field goal and Drew Stevens, the rookie kicker, boots one through to win it 27 to 24. 1982's season opener at the vet in Philadelphia. The Eagles were a big time favorite. Washington went in, won that game 37 to 34 in overtime. Mark Mosley kicked a field goal to tie it at the end of regulation. It was like a 49-yarder, then booted a short one in overtime. There was a strike that came a few weeks.

weeks later, but it was the first sign that they were going to be a really good team, and they went on to win the Super Bowl that year. Yes, only a nine-game regular season, but that went over Philadelphia was one that many of those players, Joe Thaisman and others, have pointed to as we knew when we went into Philadelphia and won that first game in 1982, we were a pretty good team, because Philly was a good team. 27, 24 in overtime. One quick thing before Jay Johnson. I'm saying. Man, I'm looking forward to the tennis tonight. Seriously, Ben Shelton, Francis Tiafo, rooting for Tiafo, but either result, getting an American man into the final on Sunday will be great. There'll be too much football on Sunday to watch it, but this is a big night for tennis

and is a big time event in sports around the globe, Shelton against Tiafo in a men's semi-final. Sorry to see Cocoa Gough lose last night, but tonight's tennis semifinal between Teyotho and Shelton is a big-time sporting event. There's some football on tonight, I know, but I will be tuned into that in prime time. I'm picking Shelton, rooting for Teafo. Jay Gruden next, after these words from a few of our sponsors. Finally, football is back and prize picks is bringing out their best. offer yet. New users who sign up will get $150 in lineups if you win your first $5 lineup. That's right, if you win your first $5 lineup, you'll get $150 in lineups. Prize picks has been and is my

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dot com. All right, joining me right now, and it's great to have them back for a fourth consecutive football season. Fridays on this podcast is Jay Gruden Day, the former head coach of the Washington Redskins, will be with me every Friday

right through the Super Bowl. Jay is doing a show with his brother, John, called the Gruden Family Football Show, as part of the Barstool Sports menu of YouTube shows. It comes out every Wednesday, so check that out. I would imagine it's a lot of fun working with your brother,

regardless of whether or not you're his brother. Yeah, we have fun, man. He's been obviously a big influence of my life from the coaching ranks and obviously personal life. But, yeah, we can banter quite a bit. How many people can roast John like I can? I really have nothing to lose. Man, he can fire me right away, and I'm fine.

I'll come back here. Yeah, you'll just come back and do the various radio show and podcast hits. No, I'm sure it's an excellent show. What do the, I mean, your brother is, you know, an iconic head coach and broadcaster. And somebody that is, you know, has his own, you know, brand in many ways. And we know you. And I'm wondering between those that know you both really well, what are the differences

between the two of you personality-wise, because I think people that don't know you, like our fan base knows you, as a true guy's guy, as a guy who is self-deprecating, who has a quick sense of humor, but the people that know the two of you, how would they describe your differences or your similarities?

Well, I think John's obviously, he's got a great passion for being in the spotlight. You know what I mean? I'm more of a... I really don't need to be in the camera lens or on Twitter or whatever the hell it is. He loves me the focus of attention. I'm kind of the opposite. I don't really need it.

I can hang on my boys down here and play some golf for a good of a happy hour. I'm just happy. But he's very intense when it comes to football. And we both have a strong love for the game of football. But his is like a different level that I don't know if anybody can match it. You know, you know what I'm saying? But yeah, I think that we have a lot of. similar qualities. We both love to win. We both family guys.

Yeah, I don't know. How much... How much would you consult with him during seasons when you were a head coach here? Not much, really. Every once in a while, just try to get over humped. Things seem monotonous or I had a couple of ruffs, patches, or whatever. He's always there for you. But, you know, you have so many people here as coaches and players and doubt everybody else in the building. You should be fine. But just from a personal standpoint, how you get over a hump here and there from losing two or three games in a row or the monotony, how to spice things up in a meeting room or something like that, yes, I would always consult him.

Because he's always really good in front of the team and motivational speeches. And I was the next player. I never really got into the motivational speeches. If I needed a motivational speech, then I don't need to be playing football for God's sake. You know what I mean? I just give me the ball, let me go play. I don't need to hear the 1920 war stories or anything like that. But he's very good at that stuff addressing teams and making it fun.

I forget. I mean, I know he called some of your games, you know, on Monday Night Football. Do you remember how many? And what was that dynamic like leading into the game? I'm pretty sure he might have only called one. It might have been a Monday night game against Dallas. Cole did the quarterback draw to win it. We were, you know, at the end of the year, and they were really good.

We weren't very good, but it was a great upset. Cole had a good game, and we ended up going down there to beat him. I think that might be the only time he called a game. I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that was it. Well, that game was legendary. You guys were double-digit underdogs on Monday night football. You had, I mean, that's Colt McCoy's greatest moment, greatest game by far. And the thing that I'll always remember about that game is that I think we had won two or three in a row at that point, maybe two in a row.

And the owner basically told you you had to start RG3 the following week at Minnesota. Yeah, yeah, Coles just start to feel his oats a little bit and get comfortable. I really love Colt. I think everybody knew that, but then he had a little injury. I think he had a little neck injury or something like that, which really set him back. And we really did need to see RG3 again. We couldn't just give up on RG3 because he did have that great rookie season, but he broke his ankles coming off on injury.

So we needed to see him. We had a different finality to our quarterback room, and fortunately it all worked out where the golf season came around and Kirk actually outplayed everybody anyway, so it didn't matter. All right. What kind of football team will Washington be in 2026? I think the questions have to be answered, and it's a great test for him. The offensive line, Coleman moved to the left tackle, Paul, left guard, you know,

a ready to go into center, you know, he's a good right guard. Conner, he's got to have a better year. He's got to play better. That's all. He played better towards the end of the year, but he still gave up like 50 pressures and eight sacks or something like that. So the offensive line, we all know it's a problem. We've got to see how Chick does it,

because we know that Zach Ertz was Jaden's safety blanket, he's no longer there, so Shig's got to step up into that role. And Bill Merritt and Rashid White, can they be the workhorses? Can they provide some big plays? Somebody needs to help Terry with a big play ability.

You know, Stefan Diggs is more of a not a big play guy, more of a chain mover type guy, so all that stuff's got to work out. Can we protect, can Jane protect himself from himself? Can the offensive line protect Jaden? And then defensively, how are we going to stop Zake Juan and J.L.O. Hertz and Devonte's stuff.

So the discussion about the offensive line, you know, obviously we haven't seen it yet play in a real game. We just know that Tunsell's not going to be a part of it, which is, we should be impactful. He's a pretty damn good player. My question to you is, what do offensive coordinators do when they're concerned about their offensive line? They're concerned about protecting the quarterback. How do you game plan and play call around protecting a worry like that? Well, you saw what Kyle Shanahan did last night with Miles Garrett. They chip them.

They rent cross-track at them. They screened them a lot. So a lot of play-action screens are very good screens, getting the ball out quick, and then utilizing the perimeter-type runs and screens as well. So there's a lot of different ways, but you've got to stay ahead of the sticks. You can't be in a lot of third down long. That's the most important thing. Known passing situations, you're dead.

So stay out of those known passing situations. Keep the game close. Punt when you have to punt back the team up. And hopefully your defense can get some stops as well. And the game is close. That way you don't have third and eight. You're down by 10 with six minutes to go in a game. Then Jayden's a big, big trouble.

So keep the game close, manage first and second down very effectively. And then get the third short, third and medium where Jayden can still use his legs and they can still run the ball. I can't believe we're picking up. where we left off last year with you saying, hey, you can't be afraid to punt the football. You know, if you got to punt it, you got to punt it.

Did you ever say that going into a game as an offensive coordinator or as an offensive head coach? Oh, I did all the time in Cincinnati. We had a really good defense. We had a rookie quarterback and rookie receiver and some rookie linemen. We had a lot of young people playing. And, you know, I didn't want to force the issue a lot. You know, third and eight, take a seven-step drop,

and work a deep dagger, shallow cross concept, and get Andy killed. You know, sometimes you throw a screen to your receiver. maybe throw a quick hitch to AJ Green, hopefully breaks the tackle. If not, we'll put it on it. And Gino Atkins and Ray Maluga and Leon Hall and those guys, Carlos Delop will get the ball back for us. So I think most of us believe that David Blow's offensive system will include an emphasis on trying to run the football and trying to run the football to set up play action and bootleg, et cetera, et cetera. I think, Jay, when fans talk about running the football, we understand that,

good offensive line and a good back are, you know, helpful to that. But we don't know necessarily the details of what goes into scheming a good run game. Explain it to us. Well, you have to have a variety of different types of runs, not just inside zone, not just like the double-cap duo play that we like to run a lot. You've got to be able to get the perimeter of toss cracks. You've got to be able to get some outside zones. Then you've got to get the play actions before similar plays, which you're running formation, look the same but are different.

The bootlegs off of the outside zone. The play actions off the inside zone are off and do well play. So you've got to really be able and utilize formations and personnel. You can't just run. Anytime you bring in two tight-ins, it can't be a run all the time. You've got to be able to bootleg it. You've got to have the three tight-in package, possibly. Maybe the 11 personnel.

The big question I have, when you want to run the ball effectively, your tight-end has to be a very good blocker at the point of attack or backside cutoff. I don't know if Chig is that guy. I know Bates is a pretty good blocker, but how they utilize Chig. in the running game is going to be important to me, an 11 personnel, and

even when they bring in two tight ends. I mean, his jig is a good blocker? I don't need these 230 pounds. He's not very big. So I'm worried about that a little bit. Yeah, you've always said that, you know, one of the issues you guys had, even though you had very good offenses here, they were mostly very good

pass offenses. And in part, because Jordan Reed wasn't necessarily a blocker, and so you'd have to put somebody in for him, or for Deshawn Jackson to be able to run the ball like your favorite Ryan Grant. Yeah, for sure. You've got to be able to block first force.

I mean, is Philadelphia going to be really worried about the receivers? Are they going to play a lot of two-shell? Are they going to play single-high? They bring the safety down. Somebody's got to block the safety in the run game. For God, because otherwise it'll be a game of one or two every play. So, you know, you've got to be able to run away from safety. Then you're going to run out to an overload linebacker box,

run to the safety. So there's got to be a, you know, a receiver that can block them. So I know that I think the commander staff of guys Terry is a willing blocker and I think big's probably not so much. But I know the other kids from Tennessee is a good blocker. So this should be okay. All right. We'll get to more specifics on what you think they need to do. You mentioned some of it against Philadelphia.

But as, you know, we look at the big picture of the season, what are you confident about? Nothing right now. I gotta wait to see this team. There's so many unknowns as far as the offense line, the tight end play, and how it's the effect of this is Stefan Biggs, who's going to be the opposite receiver. Perry is Dick's got left left in the tank.

Defensively, I know they've got some new pieces. You know, style is a concern for me. He plays a little bit high right now. He's how his instinctive ability playing, I guess, the run, the play actions, the boot and all that stuff. I know he could run sideline to sideline. The corners, I'm worried about.

I mean, is Rezuel Douglas got anything left? Davy Marose's backup, for God's sake. Stainestrel's not very big. So, yeah, who's going to be the pass rusher? This O-A guy, he's not a big sack production guy, but he can rush a little bit. Who's going to get the pressure? Caving on Chase Young, I had him here. Jackson's O'Annex here.

He's a little guy. You know, he could rush a pastor, but can he stop the run? Is he just a third-down specialist guy? So there's a lot of questions, man. There's a lot of questions. Because Reeves can be a full-time starter and safety. So, yeah, there's a lot of questions. Hopefully they can answer them for me out someday.

aren't you confident in Jaden? Aren't you confident in Terry? Oh, I'm always confident in Jaden and Terry. I just worry about can Jaden have enough time to throw. I just don't want him to turn into the Arizona State Jaden, Daniels version, where he takes a drop back and then he's six foot in the ground and runs, which is an effective play, but I just don't want him to get, I don't want him to carry the ball 12 times in the game,

because obviously the more times he carries it, the more we get a little bit worried about his tweaking of hamstring or knee or elbow or something like that. But he's effective whatever he does. That's a good thing about Jayden. What I like is he can be a pocket passer. He can be a scrambler. He can tuck it and run and still be effective no matter how he plays. But I just want to make sure he stays available for 17 weeks.

That's the most important thing. Yeah, I mean, this is obviously just an observer, a fan observation. But to me, if he stays healthy, that's the number one key to the season. If he plays 17 games, they've got a good chance to win more than they lose. Do you agree with that or not? 100%. Without a doubt. This guy on the field, he's a surgeon.

He can pick you apart. He can beat you with his legs. So, you know, you got to love him. Just how is David Blow going to have an impact on Dayton? The new under center, the play actions, the blue legs and all that stuff. I'm interested to see how David Blow calls the game with the personnel and the under the center usage. I want to see him a shotgun every snap.

But he's proven he can do that with Cliff Kingsbury. He had a very effective year. They went to the NFC championship, for God's sake. So it's not the end of the world if they resort to going back to shotgun a little bit more than I anticipate it. I've asked you this every year and you've basically told me it takes a while to figure out what you have just because there's not a lot that happens over the summer. And I'm wondering if it's even more so when you have a team with two new coordinators, 10 to 11 new players on defense, like when do you think we as fans or even Quinn and his staff will figure out what they're good at and what they're not good at?

Well, hopefully that's taking place over time of OTAs and training camp. They have a pretty good understanding of how to utilize the players that they have on the field right now. So hopefully they have a pretty good, hopefully they know by now. But if not, it should be three or four weeks, you know, see how this line plays together. You know, Paul, left guard and Coleman at left tackle, most importantly. And then obviously how's Al Grady handled in the calls because he's obviously a veteran guy, but, you know, how he handled the center position, the shotgun snaps, for under-center snaps and all that stuff.

There's a lot of unknowns right now, but I think they should have a pretty good idea who they are, what they're about, but it could take a little bit of time with a new coordinator finding his way as far as Colin plays and getting the play's into the quarterback and third down and red zone and short yardage, full-line, all that stuff,

how quickly he can handle the process of Colin plays himself. All right, let's talk about specifically the game Sunday, and before you get into some of the stuff you've already alluded to. Do you know what your week one record was as a head coach here? Probably one in four. Well, you coach six seasons here. Well, you coached five and, you know, the games into 2019.

One in five in openers here. The one that you won was at Arizona. And, you know, doing shows during all those years, you know, there was a lot of frustration with this idea that for whatever reason, Jay Gruden doesn't get them ready for the opener. Like they're not ready to start the season. Your team's got better as the seasons went along, especially in 15 and 16 and even 17 until all the injuries hit.

But tell me if there's any thought looking back, would you have done anything differently to get your team more ready for the opener in the early part of the season? I don't think so. I think we're mentally ready to go and physically we're ready to go. I just think we've just got beat, maybe. Maybe I'll coach. I don't know. There's a lot of things you look at every year every time we lose early games. I know Zach Taylor's going through that at Cincinnati right now. He's getting blasted for starting out slow.

Yeah. You know, it sits hard. He tried to get everybody prepared mentally physically as best way you can, and then you throw the ball out on Sunday and week one, and sometimes it doesn't work out. I don't know. I wish we would have done better. I wouldn't be sitting here and talk to you, maybe. Well, I mean, do we run them more? Do we do more physical contact? Do we do more non-off that live tackling drills?

I don't know. I thought, for the most part, I want to try to get, because we had so many injuries, you know, that most important thing was trying to get the guys healthy and available for week one. And maybe I wasn't hard enough on them in training camp. Well, look, as a longtime NFL observer, week one is hardly a predictor of things to come. Every year there are very strange results.

I think it's a total head fake every year. Last night may have been a head fake in Australia. Last year, New England lost at home in Foxborough to the Raiders in week one. One team went 14 and 3, and the other one went 3 and 14 afterwards. So it just, this league tends to fool every week. But week one, to me, is always the hardest to sort of figure out. So that won't stop us from trying to figure out week one anyway. So tell me the keys to beating Philadelphia.

I think three of my five years, three of my five years, I think I had new quarterback or new quarterback situation with Robert and we had Alex one here. We had Kirk a couple years. That's right. We had Case Keatom one year. So you got to be stable at the quarterback position. That helps a lot. Yeah.

Fourteen was going into week one. 14 was RG3, 15, 16, 17, 13, 16, 17, Kirk, 18, Alex, 19 case Keenham. Yeah, exactly. So you had four different starting quarterbacks to open up seasons. All right, what are the keys to beating Philly in the opener? Obviously, you always start with turnovers and third downs and all that stuff and possessing the football. I think, number one, stopping Saquan Berkeley, that's going to be very, very important because I know they're going through under-center new stuff for Jaylon Hurts as well. They have a new coordinator, John Mannion.

and he's trying to bring in some new stuff for J. for Hertz. So Hertz doesn't really, he's had six coordinators, I think, a seven-year- or five out of six or something crazy. So how he handles that. But I think, obviously, Seekwan's got to be key on defense and then offensive leads. So it's protection of Jayden and how the offensive line pair.

That's that's good. I mean, they have some very, very good defensive players, obviously with Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter and Gailets Hunt. Yeah, they're pretty good. Jihad Campbell, Vek-Mond. So it's going to be interesting to see. how we attack. I'm in there to see how David Blow. I think the keys of how David Blow handles flight calling, how Jaden is protected, and then defensively, how we get after

Jaden, how we stop Jalen, and how we stop Sake-line. What's going through David Blow's, you know, mind? I mean, just try to put yourself inside it. I don't know how well you know him, but you, at one point, became a first-time O-C and a first-time play caller in your very first game. What is going through his mind, do you think, right now? He's going to have the butterflies now. He may not have them right now, but he will on Sunday. And he's got to rely on his assistant way. The most important thing is how he handles sudden change, how he handles, okay, we're going to go forward at fourth and forth and forth. Have that play ready. You know, Dan Quinn's got to have a strong communication with them.

Hey, we're going to go forward on fourth down if we don't get it on third down, so he's prepared for the next fall, how he handles situations and how he handles things that they don't go right early. You know, he's got to stay with the plan, have some patience with what they have been doing all camp and stick with the plan. Don't abort mission too quick, even if they're down 14, nothing early in the first quarter, something like that. So it's going to be interesting to see how he handles it. I'm fired up for him.

He's a good football coach, I'm sure, so see how he handle it. All right, do you have a final score prediction for Sunday? Who wins? I think it's going to be like 27, 24. I think Eagles will win, but I think it'll be closer than anticipated. I'm excited to see how the commanders play. and I'm not too sure that, you know, I don't know if Hurts was bought into this new system or not. Who knows how he handles it, but I just think the weapons that they have with Devante and Seekwan,

I think in Dallas-Cotter can have a big day. I think, and Sonny Stiles' his first game is a little linebacker. I think he'll probably have a little bit of struggle, so I think Philadelphia will have some big plays with Sequan and Devanti, and they'll probably pull it out. All right, let's just take a break, and we'll come back and get your thoughts on the NFL as a whole and get your lock of the week. We'll do that with Jay Gruden right after these words from a few of our sponsors. Hey, guys, back to tell you about Goldbelly, not only one of my favorite sponsors, but one of my favorite sites. It's an amazing spot where you can order the most iconic famous foods from restaurants all across the United States, and they'll ship it anywhere across the country.

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Offer is valid for limited time. Terms and conditions may apply. Quick favor to ask. I know I've asked it before, but if you haven't rated or reviewed this podcast and you don't mind taking a minute to do it. It's very helpful for us, especially when you do it on Apple and Spotify. Following this podcast is a big deal as well. That's really easy to do. Just hit the plus button or the follow button. We will get to Jay's lock of the week for week one coming up here in a moment. But let's talk a little bit about the league as we get ready for week one. I'll start with what happened last night to the Rams.

I think the time was, I think it's a nightmare. I don't even count that as a game. It shouldn't even count. The one of Australia is a joke. The NFL really is, it's embarrassing to have a team fly 17 hours. Obviously, Sean went down a lot later than Kyle. Maybe that had some impact on it, but you could tell. I just felt it was a lackluster game, and guys just weren't feeling physically.

It was a bad situation for both teams. and Grand Francisco came out on top. They ran the ball extremely well. Black and McCaffrey obviously had a good game and kind of figured that would happen a little bit with Aaron Donald out. But yeah, I just don't even count that as a game. It's not fair for either organization

that traveled 17 hours to play in Australia for Godfrey. What's the point for games? I mean, seriously. What can we possibly gain by playing in Australia? I think you played in one international game. In 2016, you guys went to London and played the Bengals going to London isn't the same as going to Australia, but did you guys follow whatever the conventional travel science at the time was?

A little bit. There's teams that went over before. Some went for a week. Some went a lot later. We chose the later route. I didn't want to be over there for a week in London, for God's sake. And there's so much of a hassle. You take all your video over there.

You've still got to prepare for practice, drawing up scripts and cards and watching third down and Red Zone and all that stuff. but I try to keep it as close to normal as possible, and then get out there, go out there and play and get the hell back. But not a lot of science is trying to support common sense of science, I would say. The Wednesday night opener in Seattle, I mean, we live in an era of recency bias when it comes to fans and even, you know, NFL media.

Did you have major concerns coming out of that one about Drake May? Yeah, I mean, this is his third year. He played very well. He was very efficient with football last year and got to the Super Bowl, but he made three catastrophic mistakes that you can't make a quarterback. He saw Matthew Stafford have one too last night. He's a veteran quarterback sometimes get a little greedy and try to make some plays that aren't there.

And unfortunately, it's a hard. And this is a game they should have won easy against Seattle, who lost your quarterback in the first quarter. So very disappointing for Drake May. I'm sure he'll learn from it. like those quarterbacks do, but if you think in his third year, he should have already known, I'm not going to throw the ball in double coverage, or I'm not going to force the ball in a red zone off schedule, things of that nature. You just can't make those mistakes as a third year player if you're trying to win

on the road in Seattle against a backup quarterback. All right. NFC for this season. Give me the two teams you think will be in the NFC championship game, and then give me a team that you think is very much underrated and will outperform expectations. Well, you know, I think the Cowboys are going to be very good with the defensive people they added along along with the offense. I'm worried about the Cowboys, man. They're damn good, and I hate to say that because I hate the Cowboys.

But pretty spectacular in a lot of different key areas of the football team. And the quarterback, the receivers, the offensive line is pretty solid. They added Quinion Williams and Caleb Bowles. Now they've got a pretty good defense shot, Gary. I think the Cowboys are going to do very, very good. They didn't make the playoffs last year, so they're a team, but I think they're going to be in the mix towards the very, very end.

I think the Rams are going to bounce back when you get Aaron Donald back and get back to the normal time zone of California. I think the Bears are going to be pretty damn good myself. I'm worried about their defense a little bit. NFC South, I really don't have anybody out of there. So, yeah, those are pretty much teams. I think 49 will be there.

Seattle, obviously, is going to be there when San Donald gets back, because they're all around good football teams defensively off the line. I think the running back will be pretty good for Notre Dame. Those are the key teams. I think everybody kind of figures the same teams. The only surprise team possibly, if you consider Dallas a surprise team because they didn't make the playoffs,

I think that's surprising. All right. What do you think Washington will do? Give me a final record prediction. Well, based on rosters and all that stuff, I think they're a little bit outmatched, especially coming from the offensive line. I really take a lot of,

I put a lot into the offensive line play. Who's got the returning offensive line and a cohesive unit. I'm worried about the offense line. If you're worried about an offensive line, that's five of your 11 players every snap, right? If you're worried about five of your 11 players, every snap, you worry about the tight end.

That's six. And a running game is Bill Merritt's seventh round draft. Is he really a go-to guy? That's seven right there. Then your other receiver outside of Terry McCorn, Bob Biggs is okay, he's getting older than your other receiver that's nine. So, yeah, I'm concerned.

I think if they win eight games, I'd be, I'd be probably surprised if they win eight. Two best AFC teams and a team in the AFC that you think could, you know, overperform expectations. Two best teams in AFC. Shoot, I think Buffalo will be good. I think defensively they did a little bit more to improve. I think they have Ad and DJ more will give Josh another target that he can go to and a run after the catch type guy.

I think that game will be fun to watch. Houston and Buffalo. If CJ Stroud can make any strides at all, getting better. I think Houston will be in a mix because their defense is so good. I think Jacksonville is going to be a surprise game over there. They're very good on defense. They've got two really good defense events.

They can cover. They can run the football, and they have some weapons on the outside. I think Parker Washington is going to emerge as a quality receiver in the National Football League. Yeah, I think, and then the FC West, I mean, Kansas City House Patrick Holmes going to do. I think the chargers will be better. Obviously, Denver, I think, return 51 out of the 53 players on the roster in a ad,

Jalen Water, Waddle, I think they're going to be in the mix of the end. I think it's going to be, I would guess probably Denver at the end, if Bowdo Nix can complete the balls down the field. All right, so Denver versus... Yeah, so Denver, Buffalo. And then you got kind of Dallas and the Rams. So who wins the Super Bowl? Yep.

I got the I still think the Rams are the favorite even though they look terrible last night I think they'll get it back and Stafford plays a little bit better I think I still think

the Rams top to bottom offensive line running game passing game defensively they'll be better obviously when Aaron Donald gets there'll be a freak they'll be a freak show

I still like the Rams all right three straight winning seasons with your lock of the week on this show give me your week one lock of the week the Bears

the Bears it's easy that's an easy one that's an easy one that's a lot of the But bears are going to beat the living dog. I mean, they're pretty good. Their offensive line is pretty good.

DeAnderson is going to have a big game. And Caleb Williams is starting to feel his oath. And I love the head coach. I think Ben Johnson is the best coaches in the National Football League. And they're playing Carolina, right? They are playing Carolina, correct. The Bears playing. Yeah.

I mean, I love that your lock of the week is the Bears, and you didn't even know who they're playing. The best number out. Yeah, I think Carolina, but I want to make sure. Yeah. Yeah, it's the Panthers. There are plenty of threes out there. There's some three and a halves out there, so I'll give you the Bears minus the three Sunday in Charlotte as your first lock of the week.

That game, just so you know, there's more public action on Chicago than any team this weekend. So you are going with all of the guys that are, you know, betting at sports bars all over the country this weekend. You're with them. I understand that. I understand that. I understand that the Panthers have two tackles that are out. Moten's out and their other tackles out. Right.

I'm playing with a rookie tackle. There's no way. And Bryce Young, I mean, unless Chuba Hubbard and this Jonathan Brooks guy come off, three knee injuries, has a huge day run on a football. I don't see how that they're going to get a pass off. And I don't see how they're going to stop Chicago. Because Chicago can get you a lot of different ways, man. Their running game is sick.

All right. Chicago minus three, the week one pick for Jay. love doing this with you. We'll do it again next Friday. Appreciate it. You got it. Thanks. Jay Gruden, everybody. A weekly Friday guest during football season once again. All right, I'll finish up with smell test week two after these words from a few of our sponsors. Think about the last time you called a business and nobody picked up. What did you do? You probably called the next one. Well, your customers do the exact same thing. That's why today's episode is brought to you by Quo, spelled QUO, the business

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and Kevin DC for the $500 betback bonus. MyBooky.com, mybooky.ag. And again, use either one of those two promo codes when you get there. All right, I got this from Greg in D.C. Greg writes, Kevin, I've been a smell test believer for at least 15 years. Tarleton State was your best work ever. I thought you were joking when you first said it, but then I remembered that you told Stanford Steve when you had him on the show

that you were going to bet them and he laughed out loud. How did you find that one? WTF, question mark, exclamation point, question mark. Thank you for that, Greg. Stanford Steve did laugh, but he did tell me, I forget if it was the conversation that we recorded or the one that we had maybe the next day. He did tell me that people thought Tarleton State

was decent and had a chance to win that game. Anyway, I found Tarleton State the same way I find all of them, win or lose. I'm looking for, you know, the sides where the public's lined up on one side and the sharp money's on the other. And that just fit. I know it's a weird game and a weird team. We've had some weird ones before.

Tarleton State might be up there. And for those that missed it last week, I gave out Tarleton State. They're a college football program in Texas. They were getting two and a half points against Bowling Green. They won the game outright. But yeah, it was kind of one of those where it's like it's weird that a smaller school like that has so much action on a game on the other side and also is garnering sharp action. But it worked. Hopefully the next weird one works as well.

Nothing that weird this weekend. 3.0 and 1 last week to kick off year number 21 of the smell test. 15 winning seasons, five losing seasons in the 20 years I've been doing it. And last year is a reminder if you missed last week's show 62.4%, which was the third best season I've ever had. Those of you who know know how good that is, and those of you who don't know, just trust me. 62.4% is exceptional for an entire season of picks. All right, let's go to tomorrow. nothing tonight. I thought about Rutgers. I did. But the sharp action is split, even though the public action is on Boston College. But no official pick tonight. Let's start tomorrow.

High noon, Fox, Michigan hosting Oklahoma in the big house. I knew when Michigan played last Saturday night and looked awful and then stole one at the end with the extra second on the Hail Mary. I knew they were going to be a play. The only way they wouldn't have been a play is if somehow Oklahoma came out as like a 10-point favorite. Anything less than a touchdown, you knew the public would be all over the Sooners.

Brett Venables and that defense, they shut out Utep and their opener 51 to nothing. Playoff team last year, so good defensively, and Michigan looked awful. I knew this was going to be a smell test pick, and less again, Oklahoma came out, as a massive favorite, but they're not a massive favorite.

They're under a touchdown at five and a half, and the public's all over the Sooners. I'll take Michigan plus the five and a half. South Florida is getting three and a half at Army. I'll take USF. Army is a public darling at home when they're laying a short number. People know about Army and their triple option and how they can rush for four and 500 yards and roll up a lot of points and eat a lot of clock and keep the other team's offense off the field. USF was unimpressive in their opener last week, beating FIU, Florida International 19 to 9.

This number should be a little bit higher. I'll take USF plus the three and a half. Duke is getting five and a half at Illinois. I'll take Duke. I almost gave Duke out last week and it would have been a winner against Tulane. Anything under a touchdown with an Illinois team at against a Duke team that does not have Darien Mensa, as they did last year, was going to be viewed as light and getable for the public, anything under a touchdown. So I'll take the dog in Duke plus the five and a half. Those are the three college plays. Let's move to Sunday, week one of the NFL. As you heard me mentioned to Jay, the bears are the biggest public play of the weekend. I'll take the Panthers plus the three and a half. I told, I gave Jay, the three, there are plenty of three and a halves out there as well. And I'm going to take the best number as long as it's out there and available to most of you. You know, if there's only one three and a half and everything else is a three, I'll take the three. But I see two or three and a halves out there.

I see some threes out there. I'll take the Panthers on just general contrarian betting principle plus the three and a half. The Saints are getting seven at Detroit. I'm a little bit leery about this because of the injuries, and I'm afraid this number might go up, and the plus seven today might look like a bad number. But the public's all over the lions. Give me the Saints plus the seven. The sharp action may swing back,

but that happens with this smell test. I give these out on Friday. Follow me on Twitter at Kevin Shee in D.C. Because there are times when I add or I'll pull one back. You know, if there was an injury that came out late, and the line changed massively. You know, I'll pull it back. Saints plus the seven is a pick along with the Panthers plus three and a half in the one o'clock window.

One other one o'clock window wager, Jets, Tennessee, over 38.5. The public's playing the under in this game. It makes sense. Usually the public loves overs, and I end up giving out unders. But in this particular case, they're all over the under. Why? Because the Jets in Tennessee, the perception is they're terrible and they can't score. I'll take over 38.5 Jets, Tennessee.

With my pick in the opening segment for Washington, Philly, you must know that I've got Washington in the smell test plus five and a half. Philly's a massive public play this weekend. It was going to be that way as long as the number. stayed somewhere between four and a half and five and a half. I'll take the skins plus the five and a half. And then on Sunday night, the Giants plus three against a public darling always, but especially early in the season, the Cowboys, Giants plus the three is the last selection of the weekend.

So Michigan plus five and a half, South Florida plus three and a half, Duke plus five and a half on Saturday, Panthers plus three and a half, Saints plus seven, Jets, Tennessee over 38.5, Washington plus five and a half, and the Giants plus three on Sunday and Sunday night. Good luck, as always, it is for the most part for entertainment purposes only, but I am serious about this, and I'll have all of these games, as many of you will. All right, enjoy the weekend. I'll be back again with a post-game show following Washington, Philadelphia on Sunday night.