The Kevin Sheehan Show - Prediction: Easy Washington Win

Episode Date: November 6, 2020

Cooley and Kevin preview the Washington-Giants game and both are predicting an easy win to get to 3 and 5 at the halfway mark. Lots of other NFL preview including a 2nd half of the season look-ahead along with Kevin's "Smell Test" and Cooley's "Lock of the Week" too.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Sheehan Show. Here's Kevin. All right, it's Kooley and Kevin Friday. We're going to get you ready for the biggest game of the year. Washington at 2 and 5 against the 1 in 7 Giants.

And actually, I sound sarcastic Cooley, but it is a big game. Like if we're going to, as our good friend Zabe used to say, if we're going to go have ourselves a season, they have to beat the Giants on Sunday. It's amazing that they have a chance to go have themselves this season. I know. By beating the Giants on Sunday. I mean, it's absolutely unheard of that they're right there poised to make a run of the division at 3 and 5.

Yeah. Come on, really? Well, they would be at 3 and 5. And it would then set the stage for, you know, a game next week against the Lions where at least, you know, they're playing for something at that point. If they lose to the Giants twice in three weeks, even though mathematically in this division, they won't be out of it until they're two and 12. But it just, it's not going to feel like, like if they're picking up and building on what I believe to be is at least the beginning of some momentum defensively, competent quarterback play,

I don't think the Giants suck. I think they're much better than their record indicates, but you got to win this. game Sunday, period. You got to go win it. They're off a short week, Monday night game. You got to, you know, they're going to be 3,000 fans there Sunday, Cooley. They're allowing 3,000 into the stadium. So you just got to win this game, period. Do you ever play Spades? Oh, God, it's been a long time. Hearts, Spades. I remember those games. I remember playing them, but no, I don't remember it specifically. It's where you bid books. partner.

You said how many books you can win? No. Don't know Spades then. You basically are sitting there with 14 cards in your hand. And you decide how many you and your partner can win based on your cards. So it's almost like this with Washington right now. Like they got about four books left possible in their hand with the rest of their schedule. What equals a book?

Like the ace of spades is the highest cards. Spades Trump everything. Right. So if you had a bunch of spades, you potentially have more books. Good spades would be a good team, really. But what is an actual? Ace of hearts.

What makes a book? When your card or your partner's card wins the hand, this four-told cards equals one book. Okay. And you play 14 times around, and you got a bid on everyone. It's a pretty fun game. We actually played it last weekend.

But that's kind of what the Washington football teams. They got a lot of clubs and hearts left in their hand. and like middle range clubs and hearts and some diamonds yeah and a couple diamonds and essentially not a lot of spades this is one of the books they got to win man like you bid if you bid six or seven we got to get there this we're going to get to six or seven this one you got to have if although it's it too i mean you never know i mean what's san francisco right now um they're four and five i mean but they're banged up. They don't know who their quarterback is. Is there any reason you can't beat San Francisco right now?

I don't think so. Right, but they don't play them right now. I know, but they play them later in the season. Yep, they do. So you go through and you figure out what they're going to look like in a couple weeks. Who knows? But this is a big one. If my prediction that they're going to play well and contend and potentially finish seven and nine, which is what I predicted the other day, but losing the division to seven, eight, and one Philadelphia,

To go four, to go five and four the rest of the way they have to win this game, period. Because to get to seven and nine, if they lose this game, then we're talking about going five and three in the second half of the season. I don't see that happening. I don't see that happening either. It's interesting, though, this is a year where division wins aren't as important. True. That's true. normally it would be super important and with this poor division you would say man if we got to

four division wins we would hold tiebreaker over anybody here except there won't be a tiebreaker well likely unless they have a tie unless they have a tie good i'm glad you said that because so difficult time explaining that to many people the other day that you can't i i can't you know all the tiebreaker stuff and you hear people saying, you know, they got to win the division game. If it comes down to tiebreakers with Philadelphia, I'm like, see, you're not getting it. They would have to tie a game to actually tie Philadelphia. Because if they don't tie a game, Philadelphia has a tie.

They can't possibly end up in a first place tie with one another. One team's going to be at least a half game better than the other. Okay. What are the odds? I mean, how many ties are there a year? Well, we've had, actually, I don't know if this is true. When they reduce the overtime from 15 minutes to 10 minutes, which I actually do not like that rule, I think they should put it back to 15 minutes.

It's a joke. But I thought we would have many more ties. And I think that that first year of the 10 minute overtime, we had like, and I forget which year that was now. I think it was 2018. I think we had four ties maybe that year, which was the most we've had. But I don't think we had any last year. If there were four ties a year in the NFL right now, that gives you a 0.007% chance of tying a football game.

Less than 1% chance they tie a football game. It's pretty unlikely that they end up tying a ball game. That's right. Although had they gone to overtime against the Giants and the Meadowlands, given the length of the possessions and the kicker that we have, it may have been a tie. We may have won the toss, gone on a 13-play drive, converted four third downs,

eaten seven minutes of the clock and then had Hopkins miss a field goal. And then the Giants get it back and maybe the game somehow ends in a tie. Anyway, we'll get to Washington beats the Giants if. We're going to talk about last night's game briefly. There are a few other things to get to as well, including the penalties to the Raiders and the Steelers for breaking COVID-19 protocols. But I want to mention real quickly, mybooky.ag. If you sign up with MyBooky.ag and you wager there, and I promise you, it is one of those places where you can feel safe that you are getting quality lines, quality pricing, and you'll get paid if you win.

If you sign up at MyBooky.org using my promo code, Kevin D.C., K-E-V-I-N-D-C, they will match your deposit dollar for dollar all the way up to $1,000. I did not steer you correctly last night with San Francisco as an early smell test pick, Cooley. I gave them out plus seven and a half. By the way, that line went to plus six at game time, so there was a lot of sharp money with me on the 49ers against the public. The 49ers had $80.8 million in salary cap, sidelined for the game. That's got to be. That has to be a record. It was literally, as I described it yesterday with Tommy, it was the JV version.

of the San Francisco 49ers, and yet I encouraged all of you to wager on the 49ers. I apologize for that. But my bookie.ag, Kevin DC promo code, great spot to wager on sports. We've got, you know, obviously a lot of football to come. And I think the election odds are now over, even though the presidency has not been declared. Did you want to weigh in at all? You said you had a what do you got. Was it the spade?

or was it something else? No, no. I mean, my body got's irrelevant. So this is non-football related. You want to do it. I can save it for another day. Well, I mean, if you want to do it, you do it. What do you want to do?

You know, I've never shot a deer. You've never shot a deer? Nope. I haven't either. And I've never even cared to shoot a deer until yesterday. And then you shot a deer? So I did. I still have never shot a deer.

So I took a friend down on my property. We've went two days in a row. He just wants to shoot a white tail. He doesn't care if it's a dough or a buck. He just wants white tail meat. We've had this conversation better than milder meat. Right. We didn't get one two days ago.

So we got to yesterday. We see 500 yards away. And I love this because he pulls out like his golf spot spotting scope. Right. and he's like trying to explain to me like how you use it. I'm like, you know, I play golf. Yeah. It's a driver.

It's a part five here. It's about five, 12. It's two shot hole. So we didn't quite have for cool. Apparently we didn't quite have the firepower for that. Could have maybe taking a shot, but didn't quite have the firepower. It's three dose. So we start trying to creep down on them.

Wind was at our backs, Kev. I don't know how far out deer can smell you, but somewhere around 240, 250 yards they smelled us. They take off. We are trying to find them for a while. Spend about an hour. Stomping around and like muck on my property. Finally turn around, walk back. We get about 50 yards from where I'd driven my side by side, my four-wheeler deal. And out pops four deer and one great big white-tail deer buck. I have not seen any big buck. on my property. Nobody around me that lives around me has seen really any bucks.

Now, apparently they don't come down lower until the rut now when it's cold. And so it's not uncommon to not see him. But I said to myself, that sucker's dead. He's mine now. I'm going to hunt him. And? Well, it was dark. We had to go.

But I'm assuming he's going to stay. I know very little about deer hunting. But I said to myself, because we'd been down. trying to shoot those doze for two days. I'm like, I don't even care. It doesn't make it feel bad if you shoot one. I'm not excited at all. I can tell he's excited.

My buddy Ron, but I'm sitting there just helping out. Let's walk around. I'll use the binoculars. Where we go? I saw that buck and I went, I'm hunting him.

It's not weird? I don't, I've never once thought, I really want to shoot a deer. Yeah. Now? I really want to shoot a deer. the deer. I have many people in my family, extended family, that are hunters. And because of it, my oldest is a hunter. I've never been a hunter. I've never really desired to be a hunter.

I like fishing. I like being in the outdoors. Part of me, part of the appeal to me to going out and hunting would be to be out on a beautiful fall, not super cold, but chilly day, you know, bundled up with a book or maybe some music, just hanging out in a stand, just being out there by myself, like that, not really, maybe letting a couple of deer just pass by the stand and just ignoring them. But no, I haven't. It's weird. I mean, my father was a hunter, my father-in-law and brother-in-law and nephew or, you know, my nephew, or, you know, my He listens to this show. So Jack's a big hunter and my son, Casey, because of my brother-in-law and my nephew and my father-in-law being hunters, he became a hunter.

I've never been that interested in it at all, at all. So there you go. Yeah, I don't, it's weird. Well, here's the other thing. I'm going to need somebody to go with me that's butchered a deer. That knows how to track it and then, and then, you know, cut it up. No, no. I feel comfortable in figuring out how to track it.

But I don't know how to cut it up. I mean, it can't be that hard. You can barely find your way out of your own driveway. How are you going to track a deer that you just shot? That is not true. Okay. I've been tracking animals on my property. I'm going pheasant hunting tomorrow.

Yeah. That's a different kind of hunting. I have done a lot of pheasant hunting in my life. All right. Well, I'm happy for you. I'm going to pheasant hunting tomorrow. But I've been following pheasants and watching these pheasants. Anyways, I just thought it was, I just, I felt really interested in the fact that I, I promise you, I've never really been excited by shooting a deer.

Two days of going down hunting and looking at just randomly shooting a deer for meat. Like, that's cool. You know, harvest a deer, as they say. But now, you're out there working your land and bringing dinner home for your wife and kids. Now, the deer's going down. All right. Well, I'm going to track that. How many points on that buck?

Well, in your world, I got a, I think in your world it was five, or excuse me, 10. In your world, 10. In my world, five. Why would it be double in my world? Here they only count half. Here they only count one side. Okay. Your world meaning what, East Coast?

In Virginia. West Coast, West Coast, Wyoming counts one side. Okay. East Coast counts both sides. So for you, it would have been a 10-point buck. Okay, well, all right, well, I wish you the best of luck with your five-pointer. All right, maybe you can update us on Monday. All right.

We'll get to Washington beats the Giants if right after this word from one of our sponsors. All right, let's get to Washington and New York on Sunday, Cooley, and get to our keys to the game. Do you want to kick it off or do you want me to? We're going to flip this because, I kicked it off last time we played the Giants. And so we're going to change it up. You're going to tee off first. And because of that, it didn't work.

So we're going to try it a different way. Why wouldn't you throw a little superstition into this? I'm going to start with this. This is an easy one. It's cliche, as we say. But these two quarterbacks are turnover quarterbacks. So Kyle Allen has to protect the ball. And we have to rely on Daniel Jones.

not to protect the ball. I went back and looked at both quarterbacks. Daniel Jones has turned the ball over at least once in nine straight games. In six of his last nine games, he's had at least two turnovers, and several with three. He throws interceptions and fumbles a lot in these games. The last game that he didn't turn the ball over in was end of last year at FedEx Field in that 4135 overtime game, which was his best game of his short career. He threw for 352 yards. He threw for five touchdown passes in that game, had the game winner in overtime, and did not turn the ball over

once in that game. That's the last time he didn't turn the ball over in a game. I mean, he turns the ball over. So obviously, Washington could really use a couple of those Daniel Jones' ill-time throws or you know, ball securities, ball security in the pocket issues where he loses the ball to a fumble. The Giants Cooley are 1 and 7. I've seen them play a lot for some reason this year. And you've seen them a little bit too. I don't think it's crazy at all. If you go back and you think about their season, if Daniel Jones, and this is, of course, a big if,

but let me say that I think he's a decent quarterback, and I think that they are competitive in part because of him, but then they lose games because of him too. But if he just cut those turnovers in half, they're a four and three football team. If he didn't have some of those turnovers at the worst possible times, like at the end of the game against Philadelphia, it's possible that they're a five and two football team. They've been in a lot of close games this year that were winnable, but his turnovers have been the difference. you know, the, he turns, if he turns it over less, they're in the lead right now in the division.

If they're quarterback, if the number of turnovers, which I think are 14 on the year for him, I think it's nine interceptions and five fumbles. If he's got seven turnovers this year total, they're in first place in the NFC East, you know, no worse than four and three. Anyway, getting a couple from him would be really big, and that's what he usually does. So you almost have to count on it. You got to count on him having a turnover or two in this game. Meantime, Kyle Allen, he's turned the ball over in nine of his last 11 starts,

with seven of those being multi-turnover games as well. And I'm talking about the games where he's played the whole game because I'm not counting the Rams game from a few weeks ago because he only played a half. The last game he played in against Dallas, no turnovers. But that's only one of two games over the last 11. 11. And you could make the case, by the way, that of all the games he has started over the last 11 games, that that's the game where he probably could have had three turnovers and they still would have beaten the Cowboys because the Cowboys were so awful that day. But both guys are

capable of making a bunch of plays that help you win a game, but both have proven to be the kind of guys that will make enough mistakes to lead your team to a loss. So my number one, and it's obvious, it's always turnovers, but it's really important this week because you've got two turnover-prone quarterbacks. You've got to be turnover-free if you're Kyle, and you've got to hope that Daniel Jones does the normal thing, which is give you one or two, you know, free possessions. And so that's my first Washington beats the Giants if you can respond or you can get right to your number one. Well, to your point, you've got to force those turnovers. And I think this is a defense that's capable of doing it.

There's the, some of these stupid analytics, the DVOA, Redskins past defense is, I think number two in the league. Oh yeah. And their past rush is the best, according to DVOA in the league. Yep.

So you have to take advantage of that, Kevin, force those turnovers. You're absolutely right. And it was a game, you look back a couple weeks ago, and it was a game where turnovers gave them a chance to win the ball game. You know,

Kendall Fuller had a pure, huge turnover where they would have went down and scored and won the game. I think they're not good enough on offense at this point to not get a couple turnovers. Defense is going to have to win them some games. And this is a game that they can do that. My first Washington wins if actually really just builds off of your first point. And it's how you force this with New York.

You get them into third and six plus. And to me, it's not just say you get them into first and third. and third and six plus. It's getting big stops in first down situations. I look back at the first game between these two teams. And other than New York wasn't dynamic on first down. They got three and four yard carries. And they pounded the ball.

They really kept running the ball and they got three or four yards. And they got into so many third and fours, third and threes in that ball game. New York's not a good second and long team. When you look at their first and ten plays, they average over five yards of play. When you look at their second and long plays, they average about two to three yards of play. So clearly Garrett's calling plays on second and seven plus

just to get them to third and four. He just is trying to get three yards. He's not trying to take big chunk plays. He's trying to get them four yards. So to me, it's critical that they get big stops and make big plays in first and 10 situations. And when you look at doing that, maybe you take some risks on first down.

Maybe you start sending some of those blitz packages. They've been good with run blitzes, especially when you send Bostick on the blitz and stuff. That's been big for them. So I think first and tens of critical down in terms of getting them to what my key is, is multiple third and seven pluses, third and six pluses. Their conversion rate once they hit third and six is bad. So to me, that's a huge key for this defense. If they want to be a big sack defense, third and six plus, that's when,

Jones has got to sit back there and hold it for a second. You know, in the game, if they get them in multiple third and longs. Before I get to my number two, I want to just add to the beginning of what you were talking about, which is some of these defensive statistics for Washington, because there are like traditional statistics, like yards allowed, which is essentially how defenses get ranked with traditional statistics, which is very misleading. You know, average yards allowed defensively.

Washington's the number four defense in the league. It can be misleading because you can give up a lot of yards, but be a good defense, but because your offense is scoring 40 a game, in the fourth quarter you give up 175 yards of passive, you know, pass yardage. But simple stats right now in terms of the yards allowed statistic, Washington is the number four defense in the league behind the Rams, the Colts and the Buccaneers, and they're actually ahead of Pittsburgh. But you mentioned DVOA, some of the more advanced analytical statistics measuring a lot more

than just yards allowed and even projecting based on the teams that they are going to play, Washington right now is the number four DVOA defense per football outsiders in the league. Behind Tampa Bay who's one, Pittsburgh two, and Indy who's three. If you've been watching football this year, and I would have said to you, Pittsburgh, Tampa, Indy, and Chicago, and Baltimore are probably the best defenses I've seen all year. Well, in the DVOA number, Tampa's one, Pittsburgh's two, Indies three, Washington's four, Baltimore is five, and Chicago is six. And then Denver is seven, and Denver's been outstanding on defense in many of the games as well. Washington's projected based on the rest of their season to be the number six defense in the league. This is actually, I know, surprising to some that are listening because you're like, yeah,

but the Rams torched them and Cleveland scored 30. Well, there was no complementary football at that point, you know, and you got to have an offense that at least does something. And a lot of those numbers, with the exception of the RAM game, piled up at the end of those games, like it did in Arizona or it did against Cleveland in particular. You know, red zone defense, which I'll use as my number two, Washington beats New York if Washington continues to be really good as a red zone defensive team. They're fourth in the league in red zone defense.

They held the Giants in their first game to 0 for three in the red zone. Remember they had the one Kendall Fuller interception, which shouldn't have been an interception. But in terms of touchdowns in the red zone, they held them to 0 for 3 in Washington's fourth in the league. Touchdowns, you know, in giving up touchdowns in the red zone. That's really impressive. This defense, Cooley, is why I am optimistic about the rest of this season. It's a good defense that's getting better. And the numbers are starting to really reflect that.

They are. And certainly when you are. offensively starting to move the ball and keep your defense fresh, it's going to be even better, you know, in terms of the performance. But I'll use red zone defense as my number two. Washington continues to play good red zone defense. They're going to have a legitimate chance to win the game. Yeah, I think that's going to be critical. New York's just not a big play team. They haven't been a big play offense all year. They'll take shots, but they haven't hit a lot of those shots.

I'm not saying that Daniel Jones is incapable of hitting those shots, but they've been a nickel and dime type of offense. And so if they're going to continue at that pace, stopping them in the red zone when they get down, there's going to be absolutely critical. My second Washington wins if, Kevin, is Washington wins if they start this game and come out fast and hot. You're coming off a by week.

You've had a ton of time to rest. You've had a ton of time to prepare. New York's coming off a short week. You have to put it on them early. You have to take a lead and make them completely battle. It'd be great to get them out of a game plan that they haven't had a ton of time to work on and practice into the second quarter in this game, especially once you get into the third quarter. If you can build a two score lead, then they'll win this football game. I think it's been really an Achilles heel of this offense for Washington, not.

being able to score points early in the first halfs of games. And that, we talked about DVOA, we talked about some of the other teams, complementary football. You get a lead, which I think they should be able to do against this defense. Then you play complimentary football throughout this game. They should win going away. You know, you mentioned the chunk thing, chunk yardage. It's interesting because neither one of these teams is a big chunk play team.

and one of the, it manifests itself with a ton of third downs. Both of these teams face a lot of third downs. Washington averages 14 third down attempts a game on offense. 14. That's fourth most in the league. So, you know, they've been really, really, really good on third down over the last two weeks with Kyle Allen in, you know, starting and completing these games. You know, the opponents haven't been great, but they're getting one of those opponents again on Sunday. But over the last two games, they've been as good as anybody in the league on third down. They've converted 17 to 30, 57 percent against the Giants three weeks ago. They were 8 for 15 on third down, two for two on fourth down.

They kept the ball. They had 23 more snaps than New York did. Unfortunately, they missed a field goal and they had two critical turnovers. They had eight possessions in that game, scored on four of them. But again, if you miss a field goal and you turn it over twice, it's going to really hurt, especially when those turnovers result in a fumble return for a touchdown, and the other one set up a touchdown. But I feel pretty good about their ability to move the ball consistently now. So I think their chances of winning on third down, especially offensively,

are really good. And I think that's one of the keys. They've got to continue to convert on third down. 57% is a big ask. But if they're in that 45% range somewhere around there, and they can, you know, score on four to five of their 11, 12 drives, something like that, they're going to be in these games, and it's going to look a lot better than it has. But they've been moving the ball, and they're going to face, but they don't move it in chunks, and they're going to face a lot of third downs more likely than not on Sunday. So they're going to have to be good on third down. Defensively, they're going to have to be much better on third down because the Giants were 7 of 11 in the first meeting.

and they gave up some easy ones too, with Daniel Jones in particular, extending plays and making throws and a couple of the big runs that he had in that game. But third down offense and defense, obviously crucial right now. And I'm confident that they're going to be good on third down offensively.

Well, I love the idea that they're going to be good on third down, and I love what Allen's done in some of these third down situations. But continuing to convert third and longs is not something I see is completely believable or completely realistic based on the receivers that they have to get the ball down the field. I just don't, I don't know if they can do that without being in some third mediums. So on the flip side, what I said for the defense, I think Washington has to get themselves into third and shorts.

I mean, it really is one of those games where neither team gets a ton of big. plays. And so it is a chains moving type of game. I mean, Kev, we could almost sit here and say if you could have five or more first downs than the other team, you'd probably win this ballgame. For the time of possession, you could probably win this ballgame. But then you look back three weeks ago and you said, we ran 25 more plays than they did, had more first downs than they did, but didn't win the game.

I think one of the keys for Washington and my third key is going to be, averaging over four yards of carry. New York actually is a very good rush defense. They are a good rush defense. They give up 3.6 yards on the ground per carry, just over 100 yards a game. They're eighth in total rush defense and they're fourth in yards per carry against. I was really impressed last week with the game plan to get the ball to the edge. Getting the ball to the edge in the run game is going to be critical.

the Giants front three are stout. And it is tough to run the ball up the middle against these dudes. But if you can stretch them, displace them, move them, get five yards, six yards of carry in first down situations, stay balanced, get to some of your run action pass. It'll be a different ballgame for them. The last game, they got stuffed running the football. They didn't get a bunch of good carries and they got into third long switch, they converted, but nobody continues to convert on third and eight throughout a season at the

rate that they did over the last two weeks. So for me, like four and a half yards of carry, let's call it four and a half, just about one yard more than New York's giving up is going to be one of the keys. And the only way they do that is getting the ball outside. They will not do that running the ball up the middle throughout the entire game, which is what they tried three weeks ago, which to me is insanity. And you can remember three weeks ago, it was kind of my rant of the running backs are predetermining cutbacks. If you remember that, that was that giant game where I thought there were a lot of yards to be had if they continue to push to the edge.

And they cut everything back early. And then after the Dallas game, I said a point was very clearly made that we're not going to predetermined cutbacks because they pushed maybe even too far to the edge sometimes. So getting the ball of the edge, 4.5 yards of carry. set some things up, make life easier for Kyle Allen, be able to move the pocket, be able to go run action pass. That'll be critical. That'll be an absolutely critical key. You know what's interesting is that I said this at the end of the radio show today

because a caller called in and said they got to just keep trying to run the ball like they did against Dallas. And I thought about it, and I may have mentioned this to you earlier this week, because you just mentioned it as well. The Giants are a really good rush defense. The Cowboys are an atrocious run defense, the worst in the league, by a lot. And I think one of the things I, and I know you've been critical of Scott Turner, and that's fine. I've also been complimentary. Yes, you have.

And we were both very complimentary of him in the last game where they came out and they recognized the opponent's weakness and they attacked it by running the football with the intention of running the football. But I think what we've seen from him, like there have been a couple of games, like to me the Ravens game was one of these games. I think the giant game was similar is he focuses in on what. he thinks he can do against the opponent with, let's face it, a fairly limited offensive ability. You know, whether it was a quarterback or it's just the combination of quarterback and skill position players and coaching around, you know, some issues along the offensive line and maybe another injury this week. Jaron Christian might be out. Lucas might be in. And I just thought he ran it against the Cowboys because he knew he could run it against the Cowboys.

He threw a lot of balls at the line of scrimmage, a lot of slip screens, level screens, extended run throws against the Ravens because he couldn't drop back and didn't want the ball on his quarterback's hands for that long. And that was Dwayne. Against the Giants three weeks ago, he threw it 42 times, ran it 24 times because he knew that he couldn't just line it up and run it against New York, that he needed to throw it a little bit to move the football. So I'd be surprised if they have a run-first mentality against the giants and average four and a half, they may end up averaging four and a half yards per carry, but I bet you that they're not balanced unless they get a big lead and end up running the

ball late somehow. I just think that he is game planning around the opponent more than about what he thinks his group can do. I completely agree with that. But I also have been a part of, he mentioned Kyle Shanahan believes he can win and do whatever he wants with whoever he has on the field against whoever he's playing on the other side of the field. Kyle Shanahan would try to take advantage of Leonard Williams and Dalvin Tomlinson and Dexter Lawrence and say, these are three big dudes who don't want to run. These are three big dudes who don't want to get down the line of scrimmage. Let's make them.

Let's make them skate down the line of scrimmage. Let's make them get out of lanes. Let's make them play behind blocks. We might get a few two and three yard carries in the first quarter, but they'll get tired of playing these runs the way they're supposed to play these runs. They'll get out of their lane, and then we'll start hitting some four and five yarders, and then all of a sudden they'll get frustrated, and they'll start guessing at some of the stuff we're doing.

And we'll complement with, you know, a toss and a pitch here, there, and we'll get a counterback so they think they have something, and all of a sudden the third quarter, we're going to hit a 20-yarder, and we're going to have them surprised, and they don't know what's going on, and all of a sudden we're running the ball any way we want to run the ball. And you'd sit there and listen to Kyle say that and you go, yes, that's exactly what we're going to do. Like he's the master of doing that,

but it's because he believed he could truly do it. And so while I do think it's very important to take advantage of teams' weaknesses, I also think it's important to build your strengths. And for a team in Washington that is not a good third down offense so far this season, maybe much better with Kyle Allen. Is your strength getting into third and seven? I don't think it is.

And I do think that you can stretch and move this team. I think it'll be critical that they do that. I think the way to not get into third and seven is you've got to throw the ball early. That's what they did against the Giants. I'm not opposed to that. I'm not sitting here banging a drum and telling you, Kevin, you need to pound the ball. You need to stick to the run.

What I'm saying is you need to run the ball effectively when you run the ball. Yeah. I got you. I'm just looking back at their recent games, like on Monday night, Tampa, Tampa averaged 3.4 yards per carry with Fournette and Jones. You know, it was a game in which Tampa was behind a little bit, but never really by more than one score. They threw it a lot more than they ran it against the Giants. You go back to the Philadelphia game the week before. Doug Peterson looked at the Giants' defense.

and said we're much better off throwing it than running it against them. Now, they didn't have Miles Sanders in that game. They only averaged 3.7 yards per carry. Just looking at the recent games and the way teams attacked them. We know what Washington did, 42 throws, 24 runs. The Cowboys had DAC for much of that game, and they averaged 4.3 yards per carry. Elliott got 19 carries in a game that went back and forth. That was the game the Prescott got hurt in.

But, yeah, there's something that opponents are looking. Again, I think if, you know, I was listening to a, I was listening to, who was it? I was listening to Vic Fangio, I think it was. Don't ask me why. Somehow, on NFL network, I caught something that he was saying about his upcoming opponent. And by the way, I think they're really good on defense, Denver, really good on defense, even without Von Miller this year and other players that they lost. And he just, he said something to the effect of, well, that's not what we could do against them.

You know, and he was taught, I think it was, maybe it was the chief game. They got blown out by the chiefs. And somebody said, why didn't you try to possess the ball more, you know, run the ball. And he's, well, that's, that's just not, or we tried to, but it may not have been the chief's game, but it's not what we can do against them, or it's not the kind of game plan we should have had against them. And I think that that's what we, that's what Scott Turner is.

Scott Turner would be like, yeah, we ran it against the Cowboys because they suck against the run. We're throwing it against the Giants because they're really good against the run and not as good against the pass. Anyway. And no,

I hear where you're coming from. I don't think it was Angio now with somebody else. I might have been Zimmer. I hear where you're coming from with that, but to me that some of that really speaks to average as far as a coordinator goes. I know. I know what you're saying. I mean, that's just kind of how I feel is the good coordinators find ways to take advantage of other team's strengths as well. And in doing that, I think that would be absolutely huge.

I've got two more, Washington wins. Two more. Yeah. You know this game. I want to see... You're right, your breakdown, your analysis? I want to see more... Your last radio show.

I want to see more... I want to see more... I want to see more McKissick. Like we've talked about. You and I both like McKissick a lot. I think he's got better vision, quicker feet, more elusive. He got 14 touches in that last giant game for 84 yards. And then in the cowboy game, only had seven touches, and Gibson got 20.

I want to see it equal out. I think he is a difference maker. I like Gibson. I'd like to see McKissick more. I think he really is, you know, a guy that's going to be a big factor for them the rest of the way. They just don't seem to want to get him a lot of carries. It's almost like the Chris Thompson factor. Right.

Every time he touches the ball, he's really electric, but we want to limit. Make sure he's only got about 14 touches a game. Exactly. We'd sit there with Chris Thompson and be like, he's the guy that should be getting 25 touches every single game. Right. I mean, yeah, I'm with you. I like Gibson.

Barber's not the guy, in my opinion, for this type of scheme that I would be implementing, although they just haven't shown it enough to see that Barbara could maybe stretch and get to the edge. But McKissick sure is hell can. Yeah, I think so. I just want to see him with the ball in space because he makes people miss. He gains yards. He's quick. You know, you can throw checkdowns to him on third and nine,

and he can get you a first down. Yeah, you can also throw checkdowns to him on second and nine. Right. He can get you a first down. And that's another down that will be critical. It's if you can't run it in first and 10, or you can't get yards in first and 10, don't be afraid to go check downs to McKissick.

Right, six yards, second and four. Yeah, he makes somebody miss almost every single time he touches the ball. I agree. So I wouldn't be afraid of getting to McKissick. I don't know. I mean, so I'm trying to think. There's a game I'm trying to think of here. It was, shoot, who was it?

It was Chicago and the Rams. The Chicago Los Angeles game from two weeks ago, the Monday night game. Yeah. I thought McVeigh did a hell of a job, forcing the ball to the edge and forcing the run against the bears. Bears are a really good run defense. Rankings-wise, not elite, but also keep in mind, Chicago's had,

they've been down in games, late in games, and they've had some great comebacks, but teams have been able to run the ball consistently throughout the game. Look, Sean had five fly sweeps in that game. Like, Woods had four of them, Cup had one of them, they had misdirection at the line of scrimmage. They really created a problem for the defense.

We talked about that game. It was so impressive watching Sean run the ball in that game. And I think back to Washington and Turner, and there's never been more than maybe, maybe one game had two of the fly sweep stuff. But if you want to get the ball of the edge and you're not capable of some of it, then get the ball to an unblocked edge

with some of the fly stuff. And the other thing, Kev. Sims Jr. might be back this week. That would be huge. Terry can do that stuff. You know, they have guys that can really get the ball of the edge. We saw Gibson do it. McKissick could be in the fly action.

There's no reason you can't have two backs, and one of them just be a fly action type of guy with misdirection. The other thing you haven't really seen them do, I don't think yet is just that quick shovel pass out of gun. So right now, immediately at a gun, there hasn't been one fly action run this year from Washington. It's a major tendency break if you want to go with fly action out of gun. With just that shovel pass,

right? Zero yard completion for Kyle Allen, 20-yard gain, five-yard gain. I think that they're expecting to get too much out of some of their fly stuff and saying, man, if we don't get seven, eight, nine yards, then it's not worth calling. It's like, no, if you get three yards, it's a big play for you because you're stretching, you're getting to the edge, you're creating misdirection. And that's what I thought Sean just did such a good job of against the bears a couple

weeks ago was against a really stout team that can really get after the passer, got to the edge. Yeah. There's ways to do it. And good coordinators are not afraid to attack strengths. They just aren't. They find creative ways to attack the strength of a defense. You know what I just was thinking about,

and I don't know why what made me think about it. I think it's your reference to the Bears because I said to you the other day, I think it was to you, I think the Bears are a really good defensive team. And they're really nasty. defensively. They're big hitters, their speed on defense with guys like Roquon Smith and Trevathan and, you know, Khalil Mack and then Jackson and some of those guys. And, you know, people are

really down in Chicago because of the quarterback situation. And I think I said it to you. It may have been Tommy, but I just said, I think that they're just going to be a team that's going to overachieve based on what they are offensively because they're nasty defensively. And And the reason I bring it up is because to me, and I didn't have this on my list, I want them to be a physical football team like they've been the last two weeks. It started with Everett, really in that giant game. You know, the hitting against the Giants that day with Everett was outstanding. Like it was really good.

Holcomb's been flying around. They've got team speed with KPL and Holcomb. And then I want to see them defensively overwhelm people. and be aggressive with what they have. That's the strength of their team. And now that they've got some big hitters out there as well, I want to see them become just nasty defensively. And the giant offensive line, you can overwhelm.

You can overwhelm that offensive line. And if you do that, Daniel Jones is going to turn it over. So I said that I had two left and I gave you the McKissick thing. I just gave you a third, which was that one, just be nasty defensive. My last one is we need to make sure our coach, if there's a key decision to make, doesn't get all philosophical about, well, I do this at home and I do this on the road. I mean, I don't want, you know, at the end of this game, a decision that we are on Monday saying, what did he do that for? They were dominating the game. They didn't need to go for two.

Well, the good news is at home he'll kick, you know, and take it to overtime, but maybe it'll be the right decision to go for two. Like, there's no home and road shit gone on this year, okay? There just isn't. So feel the game, the context of the game, don't rely on some predisposed, philosophical, you know, written down in stone, you know, thing that you've got on how you handle game situations. feel the game. When you were dominating the game at the end of the fourth quarter and you would run 31 snaps to the giant six, it was in your best interest to play a game that had more plays in it, not one play in it. And you didn't feel it as a head coach in that spot. And it cost you. It cost you. I think if that game had gone to overtime, Washington had an advantage. Maybe they wouldn't have won it. But I think to have it come down to one play was silly. And we've seen him make some of these decisions. So we know this, Cooley, because you and I follow this so closely year and year out. There is going to be a game or two that an in-game decision that is really, really not well thought out is going to cost a team a critical game. And I hope the coach is, you know, feeling great and healthy and doesn't make an in-game mistake.

But you know how you can avoid all that by having Duran Payne and Montez Sweat and Shea, Young and Cole Holcomb and Kevin Pierre Lewis and DeShazer Everett knocked the crap out of the opponent and just take their will from them. And they have the capability on defense of doing that to a team like the Giants. So just overwhelm them defensively like they did against the Cowboys. Now, that was easier. But I'd like to see a big, big defensive day because if they somehow won this game 24 to seven and the Giants were overwhelmed by them defensively.

It wouldn't just be three and five. It would be three and five with a major, you know, upward arrow if the defense looked really dominant again. Yeah, I would completely agree with the nasty factor. They've been a good defense. This is just giving up too much. It'd be nice to see them be a good defense that people are scared of. Yeah.

That really get after it. They're nasty. and honestly kev if you're going to go and have yourself a season having a 24 to 3 24 to 7 game where you get another 4 5 6 sacks and a couple turnovers and you look at yourself on defense and go we're we're a bunch of ballers yeah it could change the way they feel about themselves moving forward it's true I mean you they're not a good football team they're in a terrible division all okay those

things understood. There are teams that have just grown into nasty, awesome defensive teams that end up being really difficult to beat as a season goes on. As a season goes on and the weather turns colder and the field conditions become, you know, less impressive, you know, and they, I'm bullish on this team for one reason and one reason only and it's, I really think they are a good defensive team that's getting better. And it may not pay off this year, but it's going to pay off as long as, you know, the owner doesn't screw it up somehow. Right.

And you're bullish on this team based on the situation that they're in for this year, which is fair. Yeah. I would be bullish on the team moving forward, even if Philadelphia were seven and one right now. But the fact that they can take advantage of growing defensively and getting better defensively when you shouldn't be able to take advantage of it, you know, with a two and five record, um, makes it more exciting, you know, like we talked about the other day. You'd much rather be in these games that matter. It's a better, you know, it's a better yearbook session at the end of the season. Absolutely. So we'll get to the smell test in the locks of the week here in a moment.

I did want to mention to you what I told Tommy yesterday. Um, and it was one of those, you know, just a thought that I had had about Alex Smith. I think they should release him. I don't know why he's on this roster. I like him. I like the story. The whole thing. We all understand the disclaimers associated with this. It makes no sense to me why they are wasting a roster spot on Alex Smith. None. And I need you to explain it to me because if they cut him now at $7.3 million that they owe them, the cap number's not going to change. They're going to cut them in the off season. because he's going to be a 13-5 to $14 million cap savings when they release him. Even if they don't want to have Dwayne as the backup, then bring up a guy like Montez.

Let's see him as a backup. I don't understand why they are wasting a roster spot on a guy that cannot help them in the future and cannot help them now. And I guess I just, with the Ryan Kerrigan stuff and this stuff, I'm just sick of it not being solely about winning. and maybe it is. Maybe you'll tell me that he's so instrumental and so influential as a mentor and that during the game, being able to see things and help Kyle Allen

is a huge benefit. And then I would just say to you, okay, well, he shouldn't be active then on game day. And we should use that roster spot for somebody else. He can be on the sidelines continuing to help, but he's not active. I mean, I guess... There's no reason.

no logical reason whatsoever to have him active on Sunday. The other thing with Alex is you could say to Alex, we love you here. And we want you to be a part of this season. We're going to put you on IR, which they can get away with doing, no problem, as long as Alex would comply a little bit. And you can just have that conversation. We want you in the building every day. We want you to be here.

You're getting paid an astronomical amount of money. We want to put you on IR. We want you to show up and be part of this coaching staff. essentially for the rest of the season. But we all know that you're not going to be a part of this next year. I'm sure you know that. I mean, the only thing I can think of is he's on the exempt from getting cut list that someone wrote. I would use his roster spot on another DB or a kick returner.

Like Ted Ginn Jr's out there. How about let's let's use somebody on punt returns or kickoff returns that at least has a history of being, you know, every once in a while, dangerous. I don't know. I just don't, the whole thing just strikes me as a total waste of time. It's stupid. He's gotten the comeback. For lack of a better term, it's stupid. He's gotten the comeback player of the year award pretty much.

He could be Rathlisberger. But by just playing in that one half, you cannot possibly put him back out there to subject him to what you subjected him to in the Rams game. And, you know, I said this to Tommy. I'm sure he'll be better the next time. it would be impossible to be any worse than he was. But personally, I'd like to see Dwayne as the backup. But if they've moved on from Dwayne and they don't want to reward Dwayne by giving him a backup spot,

I can understand that. It's their prerogative. Then bring up the guy from Colorado. Bring up Montez. And let's see him be the backup for Kyle Allen. Yeah, I got no problem with Montez at all. I personally have no problem with Dwayne being the backup. I don't think you're rewarding him by any means.

I actually think that if there were a chance that he went into a game and just, you said, look, we got a Duane plan, go sling it. That there's some chance that you could create a little more value besides just end up having to release him or get a conditional sixth or whatever you're going to get at the end of the year. Maybe he were to come in and just say, fuck it and sling it for a couple games. I don't know if that's Duane's mentality.

And I don't know if he's capable of that. But I don't think you're losing value in Duane if he comes into place poorly. I think you lost value on Duane. I think values lost. Your only potential is to gain value in Duane if you were to come into a game. The other day, you probably missed this. And we haven't had a chance to talk about it because we didn't do a show on Wednesday. But Ron Rivera was on Rich Eisen's podcast.

And really, I mean, he built up Duane. First of all, Eisen's first question is, where do you have him? What do you think of him right now? How would you evaluate him? And Rivera said, hold on him. I have the notes here. He said, here it is. He said, I'd evaluate him somewhere in the 70s, but he said, he's got an NFL arm.

He's got a good release. He's got good athleticism. He's got a lot to learn, but he's still developing. He's still growing. And I've told Dwayne, you know, and then in a later interview, the presser that he did with the local media, he said, Dwayne's been great. He's showing up for meetings. He's doing his part.

So I think they figured out that they have to be positive about him publicly, which should have been the move right from the beginning. He figured it out, huh? Well, I mean, you know, publicly criticizing him is not going to help his value. No. It obviously already hurt it. But anyway, I wanted to mention two other things before we get to the smell test. The NFL's considering as a.

contingency postseason plan, a 16-team format. If there are games lost due to coronavirus and not everybody plays 16 games and they don't have enough time to make them up, the standings will go based on win percentage and there will be eight teams instead of seven in each conference. And what they announced this the other day, but they then made it more clear about how it would work. The four division winners would go, but the teams would be seated based on record. So if you end up with a normal playoff year, which by the way is the first year of the seven team in each conference format, there will be four division winners, the best record will get a first round by, the other six teams will play, and every division winner will host a game, just like it's always

been. I think it's stupid. I think they should cede based on record after the teams qualify. but if they do go to the contingency 16-team playoff format this year, they will seed based on record, which means if you do get to the point where that happens, the NFC East winner is not going to host a playoff game. Just wanted to let everybody know that. Secondly, I was looking at some numbers going into week nine because we've completed basically half the schedule, the NFL schedule. there are incredible numbers in the NFL so far this year, and I don't know if you've seen this. It is the highest scoring season through week eight in NFL history. The average points per game is 50.4 points per game, and we've talked about the high over,

under numbers during the course of the season. Highest ever. Five teams in the league are averaging more than 30 points a game. That's the most through eight weeks in a season. single year since 1970. The touchdowns, total touchdowns through week eight, 692 touchdowns through the first eight weeks, the most in NFL history. Seattle's got 32 touchdowns in the NFL through eight weeks, most in NFL history through week eight. It's been an incredible offensive season. And I, you know, they've, they've, pointed to some of the officiating, less flags, etc. To me, it's what Aaron Rogers said a month ago when I was listening to him on XM

serious on that Pat McAfee show when he just said, and I think I told you this, he said, it's just totally easy to play on the road if you're an offense. You don't have anywhere near the challenges playing on the road that you typically do. So you can run your offense. That makes total sense to me. There aren't any defensive home field advantage opportunities. And so your offense can operate at a high level on the road just like it can at home. Yeah.

I think which then in turn means the road team scoring more points. And so the home team's going to have to open up a little bit more. Yeah. And so the home team's going to essentially have to score more points to stay in the game. I mean, you could easily, like just look up road points. points scored this year? Well, yeah, I mean, I could get, I, that would be the most telling factor. Yeah. So opponent points in total would be what would prove that. There are also incredible passing trends. The 94.2 passer rating average is the highest ever through eight weeks. The

completion percentage is the highest ever through eight weeks. It's 65.6%. And the overall completions, thirdmost in NFL history through eight weeks. So it's just, it's a passing league, as we know, and now it's a scoring league this year anyway. You know, next year, if there are fans back in the stands from the jump, it'll be interesting to see if they adjust right from the beginning on the over-under totals. And they're high. It took them a while to adjust to this season on the over-under totals. This week, you know, you've got, again, a bunch of games that are well north of 50 in terms of the totals.

You also have a couple of totals this week that are super low for the first time this year. The Jets Patriots game, Washington Giants isn't very high. I think the total is 43. And I think Pittsburgh, Dallas was really low, too. You know, they must not think that Dallas is going to score much. Anyway, time to get to the smell test. Kevin looks where the John Q Public is putting their cash. and does the opposite.

It's time for the smell test. All right, last week, Cooley, eight and seven, so two winning weeks in a row. Last night was not a good start to this week with the 49ers plus seven and a half. I'm five games under 500 for the season, so I'm working my way back into the territory that I've spent much of the smell test, my smell test career, which would be winning territory. but it's going to take a little while. I've got a couple of college games and then a bunch of pro games, and then we'll get to your lock or locks of the week.

Tomorrow, Virginia Tech is playing 25th ranked Liberty. Liberty is undefeated. They've been a competitive team all year long. Virginia Tech can really run the football. They're laying 15 against an undefeated Liberty team that is ranked. The public actually likes the underdog. I'll take the Hokies for the second straight. week laying the 15. This is going to be really tough for me because I had Talia, they call him Leah,

Tungo Biloa to his brother on the radio show this morning. I know I told you about him on Monday about what I thought about his performance and how he is really a Russell Wilson clone in terms of the way he plays. I'm not saying he's going to turn out to be Russell Wilson. So I did ask him. I said, is there anybody you mentor or you know, you've sort of patterned your game after and he said Russell Wilson? And I said, yeah, I picked up on that just by the way he slides. He slides like Russell Wilson. Anyway, they won last week Maryland did. They're playing Penn State, who's 0-2, and they are 25-underdogs.

Again, the public likes an underdog here. Maryland on national TV last week, 45-44 winners over Minnesota. You know, Tunga Viloa's brother, Leah playing so well. This number is really high. public's on Maryland. I'll lay the points. I hate to do it. I'm rooting to be, I actually want to be wrong on this. But if Penn State wins the game, they might as well win by 25 or more. That's just a big number, man. And I like Penn State laying the 25. And then Iowa is playing Michigan State. Iowa's 0 and 2 in Michigan State just came off a win in which they destroyed Michigan. And Iowa's

laying six and a half. Go figure. I just gave you three favorites. Wow. I never do that in the smell test. But those are the three college games, three favorites, Virginia Tech, Penn State, and Iowa. Let's go to Sunday, where Buffalo is home to Seattle catching three. You can't really get people to bet against Seattle this year. It's impossible. They are a public darling this year. They are one of the biggest public plays on the board this week, laying a fuel goal at Buffalo.

I'll take the bills on just general contrarian principle because the House will need the bills this week by far. By the way, I think Seattle's won seven straight East Coast 1 p.m. start time games. Remember that whole thing about West Coast teams coming east, playing early and how it was, you know, well, Seattle apparently hasn't had an issue with it, but I'm hoping they have an issue with it this week. I like the Colts this week, plus two at home against Bolshe. Baltimore. I think everybody's expecting

Baltimore to bounce back off that loss to Pittsburgh with a big win. I'm not sure people understand how good the Colts are defensively. Nope. And I think they're also well coached offensively, and Rivers has gotten into a rhythm the last two weeks. He's got some weapons, too. Indianapolis,

Tommy and I did a segment yesterday where we picked our Super Bowl teams and picked one team as a sleeper coolly to do some damage in the playoffs. And my sleeper, first of all, I had Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. And then I had the Colts. I think the Colts are a really interesting team the rest of the way. I like them plus the two. The public is backing Baltimore in this game. Believe it or not, the public after the Giants looked pretty impressive on Monday night and nearly pulled off the

upset, they like the Giants. So I'll take Washington minus two and a half. There's another team that I like to be really competitive the rest of the way. I've talked about Carolina, Chicago a little bit Indy. I think Denver is a, you know, what I like to refer to as a live dog. They're good defensively. They've got weapons offensively. They came back in big time fashion to beat the Chargers last week. They're catching four at Atlanta and now everybody's back on Atlanta because Atlanta can really score. And people recognize that. They look at the record and they're whatever. They beat the Panthers. They beat the Vikings. They lost a ridiculous game that they shouldn't have lost. They should be on a three-game win streak right now. Had Gurley gotten down and not

scored. They're laying four at home. I like Denver plus the four. The Panthers are getting 10 and a half at Arrowhead. You can't make a number big enough to keep people off the Chiefs. I'll take the Panthers plus the 10 and a half. The Chargers are a pick at home against the Raiders, who, you know, the Raiders had all the, did you see the fine? They got fined. a bunch of money. They had a draft choice taken away from him for COVID-19 stuff. The Chargers have been in every single game and have blown lead after lead after lead. The game's a pick. The public is all over L.A. I'll take the Chargers at a pick. And then in the biggest game of the weekend, the Sunday night game, Buccaneers and Saints, the Bucs are laying four and a half.

I like the Buccaneers. The public likes the Saints. Saints have been winning. I don't think they're that good. I do not think the Saints are that good. And, you know, obviously, Mike Williams being out has hurt them. Breeze is having a great statistical year. I think the Buccaneers are the best team. We're going to get a little bit of Antonio Brown more likely than not on Sunday night. I don't know how that's going to play out, but I'll take the Bucks laying the four and a half. For those of you that predicted on Twitter that I would take the Lions this weekend because I've been so right in Viking games, which I have. have been. I've been right on every single Viking game, I think six of them this year, either

backing them or backing their opponent. Last week I had them told everybody plus seven they might win the game outright. They did. Detroit looks right in this game, but there is a ton of sharp money on Minnesota. The line's actually up to four, four and a half now. The public's backing Detroit, but there is sharp money on Minnesota. And you've got the issue with Stafford and the COVID-19 right now, whether or not he'll be eligible to play. So I'm backing off that game. I'm going to steer clear of that one. I also really consider Dallas plus 14. I don't think anybody's going to have them. But no one had San Francisco last night, and that didn't work out. So I am going to steer clear of the Cowboys with the smell test, although if it's going well on Sunday Cooley, I may just throw a little bit on the Cowboys

late plus two touchdowns. But there you go. That's the the smell test for the week, recapping Virginia Tech, Penn State, and Iowa tomorrow. Then on Sunday, the Bills, Colts, Washington, the Broncos, Panthers, Chargers, and Buccaneers. All right, what's your lock? This is tough. I mean, I have a couple questions for you. One, Dallas fits the smell test more than anybody. But one of my offshore contacts told me that there was quite a bit of sharp money on Pittsburgh.

Yeah, really one of your offshore contacts? There is some sharp money on Pittsburgh, but, you know, Cooley... How do you stay off of that? I probably won't stay off it personally, but let me add something that I should have added. I think by the time we get to game time, that line could be 15, 15 and a half, 16. I think right now it's hanging in there at 14. would not surprise me if it goes much higher and then they try to get some Dallas action in late

to try to even out their book. You're right, the public is certainly backing Pittsburgh. Everybody thinks Dallas right now is the second worst team in the league. I don't know, maybe the worst. It's either them or the Jets. And you're going to be able to play Dallas as an anti-public play the rest of the year, pretty much. I had them last week personally against 50s.

Philadelphia and it didn't work. I didn't give them out in the smell test, fortunately, but I did end up backing them and playing them Sunday night when I was getting 10, it was 10, 10, 1⁄2, whatever it was. And I'll probably play them Sunday. But if it goes to 15 and a half, 16, I'm not going to play them. So if you're thinking about your lock of the week as the Cowboys, I think this is going to be a bad number. I think you're going to be able to get a better number waiting until kickoff. That's my guess. But go ahead. Yeah, so you can't give it out on the smell test. My other question for you,

do you have a hard time in some of these college games when the spread gets to 25, 30? Actually playing the game? Not if it fits. Not if it fits. It's, I mean, it's just so amazing when you sit here and look at games and you're like, all right,

Oklahoma's favored by 38. Oklahoma's laying 38 points. But they play in Kansas. 38's such a big number. Yeah, I mean, Alabama was a 40-something point favorite a few weeks ago. I know. I mean, Clemson's been a 40-point-plus favorite so many times in recent years. By the way, they're only a five-point favorite right now at Notre Dame.

But the action's very split. You know, obviously Trevor Lawrence isn't playing. The answer to you is I don't like laying big numbers. and I don't love taking big numbers, especially in non-big conference games. But Penn State should not be really a 25-point favorite over Maryland. If they were a 25-point favorite the week after Maryland lost to Northwestern, that would have been one thing. But Maryland scored 45 points against the Big Ten West predicted winner,

won the game, and Penn State's lost two in a row. And by the way, I know Penn State's a lot better than Maryland. And I think Vegas believes it's not just a lot better. It's like a lot, lot better. Like the line of scrimmage difference in this game in terms of strength and size that Penn State's just going to roll and run roughshod over Maryland's D front. So did Minnesota, that Ibrahim running back, who's going to be a pro, the Minnesota running back, you know, had 200 plus yards.

in that game against Maryland. So Penn State's just going to line it up, run it, and then Penn State defensively is going to have a big advantage with their front against Maryland's front. And I'm sure Vegas is looking at this like, you know, even if Tua's brother, you know, runs around and makes a few plays, it's still, you know, 4814. Right. Penn State's scoring 50.

Yeah. So, anyway. For me, like, you look at these huge numbers, and it's just they're so incredible with what they do. with figuring out the number in these games. I mean, they're, they're, they're so good at it. It's just so hard once it gets to plus 20 to say, really? Yeah.

I think it's, I think it's fascinating. As far as locks of the week go, Indy's going to win against Baltimore. Yeah. Indies outstanding defensively. Very good. They're top three in rush defense. They're top five in, in points allowed per game.

And Kev, I think Lamar Jackson is going to press, feeling like he's got to do something special, coming off a game where he took blame for losing the game. I think he's in a spot where he's still a young player who's coming off an MVP saying, I want to show everybody that I'm amazing. And I don't think this is the week to do it.

I think indie is a dead lock this week. There's a bunch of games I feel good about. Like, I think the Chargers are going to win, but I'm not going to put that as my lock of the week because they can't hold the lead. They're a decent team. I mean, they can do a lot of things that really are impressive when you watch them.

No, there's no doubt about it. I mean, and they can throw it right now against anybody. Yeah. I mean, they opened up as two and a half point favorites. It's down to a pick-em. But they can't hold a lead. And in a pick-em situation, I'd almost be tempted to say Las Vegas. I think Tampa is a dead shore lock, but because I'm with you,

I don't think New Orleans is as good as they've been. And New Orleans really is giving up a ton of points at home. But there's still the Drew Brees factor. This is also a payback game for the opener. when Brady wasn't really sharp yet. First game, and they were in that game, and Brady had the pick six. I think, I mean, this is a massive game in the NFC South.

I mean, these are the two teams now. You know, there are no Falcons, no Panthers. These are the two teams. One of them's coming out of that division, one of them's going to have a chance, along with Seattle, to be the one seed. I think Tampa's just really good. Outside of Tampa, who do you think is the best team in the NFC?

Well, Seattle would be the pick because of Russell Wilson, even though I'm not, I think you can score against them. I think that you can move the ball and score against them. But if they're playing at home and there's actually crowds allowed when we get to January and it's Russell Wilson, they're going to be really tough to beat. Seattle and Tampa, I mean, that was my pick before the season started, those two teams to be in the NFC championship game. I'm not coming off that. I don't see the Packers as good as either one of those two teams. I think the Packers are really suspect on defense. Very suspect on defense.

I think their pass rush is good, but man, you can run the ball against them. Oh, everybody's running the ball against them. It's so funny, you look at this, and I, let's just say, put Minnesota against any NFC team right now. Well, defensively, they're not, they stink defensive. that, but would you be surprised if Minnesota beat anybody right now? No, but I wouldn't be surprised if Atlanta beat anybody right now. I'd be more

surprised if Atlanta beat somebody than Minnesota just because of how good Minnesota is running the football. With Dalvin Cook healthy, Minnesota can beat anybody. I just don't see anybody being so dominant in the NFC, which is strange. Normally there's at least one or two NFC teams in the past

that have been dominant enough to pretty much beat anybody. I mean, it's almost like the dominant two teams are Kansas City and Pittsburgh. I think Pittsburgh's proved that they're dominant. If Ben stays healthy, they're going to be tough to beat. Even Kansas City is going to have, it was going to struggle against Pittsburgh. I agree with that. I totally agree with that.

Who's your Super Bowl? Have you given your lock of the week? It's Indianapolis? Yeah, I'm going to take Indies my lock of the week. And then I think Indy's going to win that. vision. I think Tennessee is a really good football team, but I think Indy's a better team. I think I love Frank Gregg. I think he's outstanding. I think Iber Fluse is their defensive coordinator, but I've talked a lot about Iber Fluse. I think Iber Fluse is absolutely incredible.

I actually had a kind of a thought on Iber Flus. Is like what if what if McCarthy is really that bad? Like if I was Dallas, I would have first of all, I would have, first of all, I would have I would have hired Iberflus. I don't know why they hired McCarthy. Ibrufus was in Dallas before he went to Indy. Like, Iberflus is getting a head coaching job next year. I mean, listen to Indie's next four games, because we both like Indy right now. The Ravens, the Titans, the Packers, the Titans.

So they're playing the Titans twice in three weeks. So that division is going to be decided. But there are other games for the Ravens and the Packers. that's unbelievable they also indie plays the Steelers late in the year um you know i mean obviously we have these conversations understanding that things could change because of injuries or covid or whatever but i i like their coaching staff too i really you know and i like josh mcdaniels put together a hell of a coaching staff didn't he yeah he did hell of a coaching stuff you know josh mcdainz who built that staff i know frank rags should call

him and tell them thank you. I just, I don't know in the AFC if I see a real sleeper team. Well, we're talking about Indy. Is India a sleeper? I think Indy's going to end up being the third best record in that. Okay. But we're predicting this at the halfway mark. Like, first of all, you didn't give me your Super Bowl matchup. Mine's Pittsburgh, Tampa. What's yours? I'm going to have a hard time going away from Tampa, but I'm going to, there's just something that I don't like about Tampa. I don't know what it is. They're outstanding.

They should be the Super Bowl team in the NFC. Well, then you have to pick Seattle. Or Arizona. Okay. Yeah, you can. I actually like Arizona a lot. I'm going to go dead with you right now and go chalk and say Tampa. I guess it's not quite chalk because Seattle's six and one,

but I'm going to say there's no chance Seattle beats Tampa in the playoffs. So I'm going to go Pittsburgh, Tampa. Well, then you just gave me your surprise, which would be Arizona. And I know it's, what I'm saying here is it's the team that nobody's expecting to be there at the very end, like in the final four. Like Tennessee was last year or Jacksonville was a couple of years ago. I mean, last year you weren't really sure about Tennessee at all. Jacksonville that year, you know, there was some sense that Jacksonville was really, really good on defense. Their defense was so dominant.

and that they were going to be a playoff team that particular year. So Arizona is a, I mean, I don't think anybody's got, I mean, most people don't have Arizona in the final four, right? It's Tampa, Seattle, Green Bay. Those are the three teams people are thinking about more than any other in the NFC with maybe the Rams ahead of Arizona. Definitely the Rams ahead of Arizona. Yeah, no doubt. Rams ahead of Arizona. I don't think anybody really believes in Chicago. For some reason, nobody believes in New Orleans.

New Orleans was my Super Bowl pick to start the year. Yeah. I don't believe in New Orleans. But I think other people believe in New Orleans. You know, I was just looking through the NFC standings. Is there any chance Philadelphia could get it, like they could get healthy and get it together and be, you know, a team that has. ends up nine, six, and one, and wins a playoff game? Yes.

I think so, too. Why do you think so? I just think that there's something there. But I mean, you look at their strength of schedule wins. It's garbage. They haven't played good ball at all. Here's why I think so. Because I think the NFC is up for grabs when you get to the playoffs,

especially with the COVID stuff, which if it continues to get worse throughout the league, could leave games being canceled, five, six guys sitting out of games, anything up for grabs. I think the Philadelphia conversation is an interesting one because the NFC East has been completely written off by everybody. Philly could still get healthy. Well, that was my, that's what I gave as the assumption. Assume Philadelphia gets relatively healthy. Like they got Rager back, you know, last week. You know, let's just say Miles Sanders is back.

they had Goddard back last week. Let's say, you know, Jeffrey ends up playing. Is Ertz out for the season? I don't know if it's just had an ankle sprain. I don't think he was out for the season. I don't know if it's for the season. They are good defensively. You know, it's a good defensive team and a well-coached defensive team.

You're right. Their wins are garbage. Although the win at San Francisco on that Sunday night was a fairly healthy 49er team. That was a gutty win. They had, you know, they were, they had a field goal to take the lead late at Pittsburgh. You know, they ended up having a two-point conversion to tie the Ravens late. So, you know, if Philadelphia got on a bit of a run and went 9, 6-1,

you know, instead of, you know, the predictions of, you know, they're going to be 5, 10, and 1 and win the division, you know, but if they were a real team and they got healthy and they won some games and they beat the Packers or they beat the Seahawks who they have done on the schedule, I think we would get to the postseason and give Philadelphia a fighting chance. I think here's here's Philadelphia's

return outlook they should get Ertz back around week 11 Deshawn Jackson back week 12 their de-tackle Hassan Ridgeway back

week 12 Nathan Gary good linebacker week 12 Janard Avery D-Ned week 12 if Philadelphia can find a way

to win a couple games here in the next two weeks right and they get six players six starters back or full contributors back,

especially Ertz with an offense that desperately needs him. They're a pretty talented team with a good defense. Add Deshaun Jackson to that mix. And now with Fulgum, can't we believe Fulgum, still having the area is, but he's good. That's the beauty of the NFL. I'd be Fulgham and Ertz and Deshaun Jackson and Rager. Yeah, I agree.

All right. Let's get to our Washington Giants prediction and end the day for everybody, including us. What do you got? I see this as a really stout defensive performance for Washington. Getting healthier, fresh coming off a by week. I think that they terrorize Daniel Jones. I think that they end up putting it on him. It ends up being a four or five sack game, if not plus.

I don't think that New York gets more than 10. So to me, this looks like a 21 to 10 game. Wow. Wow. So, you know, remember a couple weeks ago, I told you that as before I leave on Fridays, I just sort of sketch out the Monday show and because I do updates, I sort of just align on what the updates are going to be. It's going to be Washington first and then the other NFL, et cetera. And remember last two weeks ago I said I wrote out the whole Washington Dallas thing for the update?

Yep. Washington beat down the Giants yesterday. 24 to 10. The defense sacked Daniel Jones five times picked them off twice. Kyle Allen threw two touchdown passes. Washington's three and five. The Giants fall to one and eight. up next for Washington. They're at Detroit on Sunday, a game you can hear right here on the Team 980 and 95.9 FM.

24-10. There it is. Tomorrow's headlines today. We've been really close on a lot of these. I know we have been. 24-10 and a real handling of the Giants to get to 3 and 5. That's what I got to. All right. What else? Enjoy the weekend out there and pal, Cody, because it's going to be cold. and you're getting snow out there this weekend. It's actually a big football game tonight. Sold out, Pal, Cody. Pal versus Cody. Playoff game.

It's a playoff game already? Yeah, oh, yeah. Is this number one versus number two in the state? It's the second. No, I think it's like number three versus number two. It's three and two. Neither of them are the one seed. Are you going to be in the booth?

But this is the semifinals. There was a game last week. I haven't decided what I'm going to do if I'm going to go or not. It's going to be pretty nice today and tomorrow, though. So. And then snow for you on Sunday. The whole weather pattern changes for you on Sunday. Yeah, a little snow, a little snow.

But yeah, yeah, I do know that. But I mean, just what else is, you know, how much fun was it when you're playing high school football to have a playoff game like this, which would be the biggest rivalry game that they could have? Think back to how beautiful football was when you were a part of it at that level. Like the excitement and the enthusiasm of playing your rival in the playoffs. rivalries are real. God, I miss that. The nerves, the butterflies. What was the biggest high school football game you played in? We never won a playoff game in high school. Did you ever get to the playoffs? Every year we got to the playoffs. And you lost every year? Yeah, we lost every year. Did you play well? We shot one every year, too. Did you play well in any of those playoffs?

Yeah. Well, I only started my senior year. We've talked about this. Oh, yeah, that's right. We played against Provo High School. We had a chance to score on the last drive to win the game, and I passed blocked the last three plays of the game. That's not good. So mad. No. All right.

Anyway, it was a lot of fun. I miss that was the excitement of football. Have a good weekend, everybody. You too. Back on Monday to recap the game with Cooley.