The Kevin Sheehan Show - Quinn On Dotson Trade

Episode Date: August 24, 2024

Kevin opened with more on the Jahan Dotson trade including what Dan Quinn said about it in his press conference today. Dan Quinn also got specific on what has impressed him the most about Jayden Daniels. Tim Murray/VSiN Network jumped on to preview the College Football Season. Raphael Esparza/Head Oddsmaker at MyBookie.ag shared his unique betting/odds-making perspective on the upcoming NFL season.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You don't want it. You don't need it. But you're going to get it anyway. The Kevin Cheehan Show. Here's Kevin. The show's presenting sponsor, as always, is Wind Donation. Call them at 86690 Nation or head to Windonation.com. Mention my name for a free, no obligation, in-home estimate.

I've got two guests on the show today. Tim Murray, our good friend from out in Las Vegas. He works for the Visa Network. He'll come on in the next. segment will preview the college football season, which starts tomorrow. And then in the final segment, something I'm really looking forward to, My Bookies chief odds maker, Raphael Esparsa, will be on the show. You can get the perspective of an actual odds maker.

He'll give us some really good information on some of the NFL season prop bed action. Looking forward to having Raphael on the show in the final. segment of the show today. Two emails to start the show. This from Casey. Casey writes, Kevin, please stop pushing wide receivers from schools

you paid tuition to, especially those with similar last names and identical initials. Hashtag Doxon Dodson J.D. That's fair, Casey. Good point. My son, Casey,

went to TCU, and yes, I did pine a bit for Josh Doxon. Didn't work out well. You know, the truth is that it was that draft night. Doc and I were doing a draft show for 980. I think we were at Buffalo Wild Wings out in Rockville. We did a couple of draft shows from there, and we did them in other places as well. But they needed a wide receiver that year

because I think that was heading into the last season of Pierre Garsohn's contract, and I thought that they would be in the market for a wide receiver, and I thought Doxon would be a great NFL wide receiver. His size, his hands, he was excellent at TCU. But it wasn't like I was talking up Josh Doxon big time before the draft. What happened was we were sitting there doing the draft show, and as we got closer to Washington's pick, and Doxon was still on the board, and other receivers had gone off the board, I just started to say,

you know what, Doc? I think they're going to take Josh Doxon, and if they do, it's a great pick. It's a great pick. I've watched all of his games at TCU. He's got size. He's got hands. He's got playmaking ability, and I think they're going to take him. And I actually liked him a lot, not saying that I didn't, but it's not like leading up to that draft. I was talking. talking up Josh Doxon in a big way, but as the pick approached, I definitely was. That draft, remember, there were a ton of wide receivers. None of them worked out. Corey Coleman was the first drafted wide receiver at 15 overall.

Then it was Will Fuller who went 21. Washington actually traded back with Houston one spot. they were either going to take Fuller or Doxon, whomever Houston didn't take, and then that left Doxon for Washington at 22, and then Laquan Treadwell went 23 to Minnesota, 0 for four on wide receivers in the 2016 first round draft. This is why I've said there are plenty of misses on wide receivers in the NFL draft. I know some of you are You don't have to trade for Iyuk. You don't have to trade for T. Higgins. You don't have to trade for anybody.

You just pick them in the draft. And there has been, you know, I think more of a hit rate on wide receivers in recent years. But it's not a guarantee. I mean, you just, you know, look back. Look, John Dotson picked 16th. Treylin Berks was 18th. There's no, you know, sure shot there on Burks. In 2021, Cadarius Tony was picked 20 overall.

In 2020, It was rugs. I mean, you know, what happened to him is in the victim awful. Jalen Rager went 21 overall. 2019, it was Nikiel Harry at the end of the first round. You can keep going through these. I mean, wide receivers are hit and miss too. Even Corey Davis, number five overall in 2017. And John Ross went number nine overall in 2017. That's only seven years ago. go. Those were two of the top nine picks, total busts, I think you would probably say. And then 2016, really 0 for four in the first round. Corey Coleman, Will Fuller, Josh Doxson, and LaQuan Treadwell. Yeah, and look, my younger son, Ryan, went to Penn State, and I did like Jahan Dotson. But to be fair on that pick,

that 2022 draft, my guy all along, leading up to that draft at number 11 was, if Kyle Hamilton is there, you can't pass on him. And they did, and they traded back. And Kyle Hamilton right now could ultimately be one of the best players in that draft. If he isn't already, I mean, if you go back to the 2022 draft, let's look at it real quickly. Trayvon Walker's played well. Aidan Hutchinson outstanding. Stingley Jr. Sauce Gardner, number four. Tibado, number five. Drake, you know, you get Drake Neal, Evan Neal, Drake London, Evan Neal, Garrett Wilson will see. Alaves looked really good. Jordan Davis, I think, is coming. But Kyle Hamilton and Sauce Gardner right now, probably, I don't know, Aidan Hutchinson looks like a star. You know, there's some good players in that draft. But I liked Dotson. I didn't mind the tradeback for Dotson. I liked the player. He was flying up draft boards late in that.

process, but my guy was definitely Kyle Hamilton. This from Darren. Darren writes, So why is Philly so smart? Why wouldn't they view Washington trading a player within the division as a warning on the player? Remember Donovan McNabb? Remember Jeremiah Trotter, Kevin? Yeah, Darren. I have no idea if Philly fans or sports talk hosts in Philadelphia are viewing the trade

as a red flag trade. But if I were in Philly doing this, I would be. I'd be sounding the alarm bell. You know, it's not like Washington didn't have room for Dotson. It's not like they were overflowing with wide receiver talent, and they couldn't keep everybody, and that's why they dealt him. You know, they have a wide receiver need. They're thin at wide receiver after Terry, and they traded them anyway.

So, yeah, I'd view that in a very cautionary way if I were in Philadelphia. You know, I saw a lot of the early tweets that came out during the initial news reports, and it was really one-sided in terms of Howie Roseman, once again, brilliant, you know, gets a starting wide receiver for a third round pick from a team within the division. I think I mentioned this on the show yesterday. Most of the grading of the trades gave Washington the nod. ESPN graded Washington's side of the trade A-minus. Philadelphia side of it, a B-minus.

Yeah, and I certainly remember the Easter night Donovan McNabb trade in 2010. I know I've told this story before, but that was one of the only moments at the radio station where I thought I was in big trouble with the owner of the football team because our CEO called me after I did an appearance on ESPN news, I think, on Easter night, they called me and said, would you come in and do a quick hit on the Donovan McNabb trade? And I said on that show, to me, there's red flags all over this trade.

Why on earth would Andy Reid trade Donovan McNabb within the division if he thought he had anything left? And apparently Snyder was watching, called the CEO of the radio station who called me at home and said, what did you say? And I told them what I said. And I said, I think that's the way most people would react to it. And apparently it's not the way Dan and Bruce thought people would react to it. They thought people would be head over heels and they were disappointed that the radio station in which they had an ownership stake in, wasn't. Nothing ever happened. Nothing came of it. And I went on my merry way. Never heard from them

again. That was one of the real mischaracterizations of the radio station is that somehow we were part of the pennant-waving rah-rah section for the team. But most of you knew if you listened to the station, it was not that at all. By the way, Jeremiah Trotter, if you recall Darren, was a free agent. He wasn't traded to Washington. But thanks for reminding me of that disaster. They paid him a bunch of money, and he didn't produce much here. And then he went back to Philadelphia and played great and helped the Eagles make the Super Bowl in 2004. You know, keep in mind, it's possible that Dotson just didn't work here with this group. And he might work out much differently and much better.

in Philly with a different group. You know, the bottom line is this. They got a third round pick for a guy that they thought wouldn't be in their top three receivers. They got a third round pick for a guy that, for whatever reason, didn't fit what they were trying to create culturally. He might fit in Kellyn Moore's scheme in Philadelphia much better. But for this group here, they're trying to set a foundation of the kind of players they want, and he didn't fit that foundation mold. This was Dan Quinn today with his introduction to his press conference out in Ashburn,

and then you'll hear John Kime follow up with him. I'll start off by, there's a famous quote, the only thing constant life is change, and that's in life, but it's also in football too. And speaking of that change, I want to thank Jahan and Riley for their time here, and we wish them the very best in their next chapter. So a lot of changes, honestly, since Adam and I arrived,

and there'll be a lot more in the future too. So the one thing that cannot change and won't is the way that we compete. And that's in every single part of what we've done. You've heard us talk through that from the time we got here. And so that's literally what we stand for in everything, to find those edges, find those margins in all sorts of ways. So all that said, John, ready to get started? So why the decision to trade Jahan?

You know, I think at the end we're always going to make the decisions, you know, that are just rock solid and best for the team. And this was one of those examples where we had an opportunity to do that. And so that's why we did it. How much of that, how much did the performance of others maybe at similar spots contribute to the decision to then make that move? I think everything's a factor when you're, you know, talking about evaluations of things. You've heard us say this, we thought this was a deep and strong group

that had a lot of, you know, different guys and feature them in different ways. But certainly at the end, like I said, just really a matter of just, hey, here was an opportunity to go help the team. And I thought that was the best way to go about it. No huge takeaways, really, from what Dan Quinn said today about the Jahan Dotson trade. Other than the theme of the last couple of weeks when it's come to him discussing the wide receiver position after Terry, or even Jahan Dotson specifically, you know, when he said, in the opening remarks, he said, quote, the one thing that cannot change and won't is the way that we compete. And that's in every single part of what we've done. You've heard us talk through that from the

time we got here. And so that's literally what we stand for in everything, defining those edges, finding those margins in all sorts of ways. And we've heard similar conversation from Dan Quinn over the last couple of weeks when it's come to, you know, Jahan Dotson, not directly but subtly. Lots of times these are questions asked about Jahan or it's in the context of a conversation about Jahan, sometimes incorporating Jahan into all of the other receivers. But I think, you know, since he was the one that was traded, a lot of this competition, a lot of those finding those edges, finding those margins, playing through the whistle, I think that was the issue, you know, and I think he kind of said it again there today.

Now, Nikki Javala asked about the wide receiver position, essentially asking if they're done yet, you know, if there are more changes potentially coming for the wide receiver group. Here's what Dan Quinn said. I know the roster is pretty fluid throughout the season anyway, but for that receiving core, do you expect more changes there? Are you kind of picking from that pool of candidates, as you said, your first 53? Yeah, right now, it's certainly coming from that group. And if Adam has a chance to compete and think about who it would be and where to add,

no tea leaves. I'm not throwing any tea leaves down right now, Nikki. But I would say that, like, that's true at receiver, but like almost at any other spot, too. If the right moment is there for us to add for the team, like, we're just going to choose the team all the time when we can, just knowing that's where our focus is, that's where it's at. But we are pleased with the crew and where we're at. A somewhat interesting answer from Dan Quinn, right? Because he didn't completely shoot down the possibility of growing that wide receiver room

with somebody from the outside when he said, you know, if Adam has a chance to compete and to add. And then he said, you know, no tea leaves. I'm not throwing down any tea leaves for you guys to read right now. But of course, they should be looking, especially for a position. position where they seem to be a bit thin. Who knows? Maybe they're really excited about their wider receiver room. There was a report from Mike Silver, remember him. He actually worked for the organization back in 2021. But longtime NFL reporter, now with the San Francisco Chronicle, he was on KNBR Radio in the Bay Area talking about Brandon Ayuk, and he said, quote,

my updated information is that everything is still on the table, including all the trades you've heard about, that Steelers scenario, and I wouldn't rule out Washington, closed quote. I still believe Brandon Ayyuk plays in San Francisco this year. I also think that at some point, Washington expressed some interest in Brandon Ayuk. And my guess is, is that the asking price was and still is, too high. The coach did say that Jaden Daniels officially is out for the game on Sunday night

against New England, but he was asked a question about what he's been most impressed with when it's come to Jaden Daniels during training camp. Here's what he said. Yeah, I think the processing part I'd probably been most impressed with. He has got rare mental quickness, processing, mental quickness, the ability to make a quick decision to put the ball in the right spot. The other thing that I admire about him, he's an excellent communicator, and he's easy to talk to any part of the locker room in and out, but like the communication piece, he's just, he's easy to carry a conversation with about a topic. We went through a lot of game situations today.

I'm sure you guys saw it practice, so tried to stress him and everybody out as much because we had the officials here. I wanted to test our thresholds for times. Could we get this play done in six seconds? What about if it was five? And so, so intentional you could just see him coming out to go. And then he wasn't done competing. I want to take all the, you know, carted looks for New England and going through it.

So it really doesn't matter what, you know, I think at the end, what we've all found is like he just loves to compete. And it could be on the scout team, end of the game, that moment, locker room. It is who he is. But I've learned a lot about him. He's got rare, you know, like I said, blend of confidence and humility. but the processing and the mental quickness is really, really sharp. So we're more than two weeks away from the opener. It's only August 23rd.

They haven't played a real game. I understand that. But you can count me as encouraged when I hear a coach talk this way about Jaden Daniels. And the reason for being encouraged is that he's specific. You know, he's not speaking in broad terms or he's not speaking in a cliched way. you know, the first thing that popped into his mind was processing mental quickness, the ability to make a quick decision, to put the ball in the right spot. You know, then he gets into some of the other stuff that isn't football field specific,

the communication skills, you know, easy to talk to, et cetera, et cetera. But when you hear a coach go right to processing and mental quickness, we know as football fans in this town, we've been very much. blessed with not good teams, but some really good offensive minds over the last 14 years. Obviously, everybody, you know, in the Shanahan group, Mike, Kyle, Sean, etc. You know, then we had Jay Gruden, we had Kevin O'Connell. We've had some really sharp offensive minds in town. And if we've listened to these men, you know, intently, even during the losing season, we've had some really sharp offensive minds in town. And if we've listened to these men, you know, know, intently, even during the losing seasons, we've learned a little bit. And one of the things

I've learned is that processing is crucial for high-level quarterback play. If you don't process quickly, you know, pre-snap, post-snap, and you don't have the ability to be decisive and then get the ball out accurately to where it's supposed to go, you're massively limited as a thrower. And one of the things you saw at LSU is you saw a quick processor, a quick decision maker, and a quick release and an accurate ball. And we've got all the other things that come with this guy, the athleticism and the dynamic playmaking ability. But the best quarterbacks in the NFL today, the greatest quarterbacks of all time, they have to be able to process, stand in the pocket, get the ball to the right receiver, with anticipation, with accuracy on third and nine to move the chains. And I think he has that part of it naturally.

And I think they know that. And they knew it when they started to scout him and started to consider him. This was the thing last year that got overlooked at LSU because there were so many highlight real runs. He was outstanding in the pocket. and knew exactly where to go with the football, always processing at a high level. It's good to hear that from a coach when they're that specific

versus, you know, high-level platitudes, cliches, you know, broad descriptions of why they're impressed. No, he went right to processing and mental quickness. And then talked about what a great duty is. All right. Lastly, I wanted to play the final soundbite from the coach's press conference today because I thought it was interesting. For those of you that think that Marcus Marietta might be, might be in trouble.

So Marriota is not going to play Sunday night. Cleland Farrell isn't, Dante Fowler isn't, Duran Payne isn't, Jaden isn't. And he was asked at the end of the press conference about Marcus Marriott. he owed his status. Listen carefully to what he said. Yep, we can put him and Clee and Dante pain all into the same space. I was able to run at a groin issue a couple weeks back that we held him. But yeah, he's trending everything in the right spot as we're getting into this game. He won't play in the game, but he will be full on for next week.

He won't play in the game, but he will be full on for next week, says Dan Quinn. Well, next week is cut down from 90 to 53 week, which means if he's full on for next week, he's part of the 53, I would assume. I would be shocked, and I've said this for a few weeks running, if Marcus Mariotta wasn't on the final 53. Personally, I think he's important to that room, and I think he's the best option if something were to happen to Jaden Daniels. But I know some of you hoped for or even thought that it was a possibility.

He's not going to play Sunday night. That means we'll see a lot of Driscoll and McSorley. The big things on Sunday night are the kicker, Cade York, and seeing if he can stick around, if he kicks well and he makes the 53, they probably give up a seventh rounder to Cleveland. If he doesn't kick well and they release him, I don't think they owe Cleveland anything.

I still think kickers will be brought in, probably to the practice squad to compete. It'll be a very fluid situation, a kicker. Kick-off returner. Kaz Allen, they want this dude to make the team. There's no doubt about it. Does he need a big game Sunday night? Does he need a big return or a big run as a running back?

I think he'll get a lot of touches on Sunday night. They're looking for justification for what they believe in their heart of hearts is a dynamic playmaker and a dynamic returner. They just haven't seen it in any of these actual preseason games, but they've seen it everywhere else. Those are really the areas to watch for Washington. You're going to see a lot of the players, most of the players, that are expected to be significant contributors against Tampa Bay.

They're not going to play. Dan Quinn told me in that interview that I did with him on Wednesday that, you know, somewhere between five and seven spots are up for grabs. And so we may see a receiver, a corner, that kind of thing, another defensive end. Some of those spots, clearly the kickoff return, punt return, the kicker. Those are the spots. For New England, by the way, Jacoby Burset's going to start the game. And there is discussion that Jacoby Berset and Drake May may be battling Sunday night in Washington in Landover to start

the opener for their team against Cincinnati the following week or two weeks from Sunday night. That's the drama from New England standpoint. They've also got a kicking battle between Joey Sly and Chad Rylin. The former TURP was a fourth round pick. If he gets cut, he's a possibility for Washington if Cade York doesn't work out. All right, rate us and review us on Apple and Spotify. Please, if you haven't done it, it really, really is helpful. for us. Tim Murray next after these words from a few of our sponsors. Hey guys, the slightest of edges make a huge difference in the games that we love to watch. In shaving, Harry's gives you the sharpest edge with their razors.

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about new windows, all I ask is that you give Windonation a shot to come out to your home and in an hour or less give you a free, no obligation, no pressure estimate. They'll leave you with a quote. You can do with it what you choose. You can shop it if you'd like. Do know this, though. If you move forward with Window Nation by the end of the month, you'll get access to a great deal in one of the great window installation companies in America. Their average installation team has over 10 years of experience. And 96% of the windows installed by Window Nation require no follow-up service. They've got over 33,000 five-star reviews on Google. Now until August 31st, every two windows you purchase, you'll get two free so you're paying

half price on the windows. If you need 14 windows, you're only going to pay for seven of them. No money down required, no payments required, and no interest charged for two full years. Plus, when you mention my name, Kevin Sheehan, they'll give you an additional $250 credit. The sale ends August 31st. call them. They make all their windows locally. You'll get a free, no obligation quote right from the jump. It's easy. Call them at 86690 Nation or head to windownation.com. Jumping on with me right now is my good friend Tim Murray. Tim, of course, is with the Vizan Network. He hosts prime time on Vizen Live 6 to 9 p.m. Eastern time.

He does a college football betting podcast as well. We're not going to talk as much betting in this Tim Murray appearance as we will at other points during the season because the season hasn't started and we only have one legitimate game tomorrow, and that is Florida State Georgia Tech in Dublin. And that does kick off the college football season. In fact, you know, I can't remember maybe you can't. Ken, a week zero game with a top 10 team in recent years? Is this the highest profile week zero game that we've had in a while?

The Notre Dame played in week zero last year, and I don't know where they were ranked. I think they were borderline top 10, but yeah, I mean, the fact that this is a conference game, and, you know, from a point spread perspective, it's 10. points, 10 and a half points. I've actually seen money coming on Georgia Tech, but looking back at last year, Notre Dame was 13th. Actually, USC played last year in Week 0 against San Jose. I do remember that. Who did Notre Dame play last year in Week 0? They played Navy in Ireland. Oh, right, of course. Stadium that four state is playing.

Blue them out, right? Yeah, 42 to 3. Yeah. But that's right. Caleb Williams played in week zero last year. So they were clearly top 10, I'm guessing. Yes, they were six. Okay. I actually, I mean, the one betting part of the conversation will have, I'm assuming that you kind of like Georgia Tech, right? I do. I just feel like the number's gone too crazy. And that's, and just real quick aside, because I know everyone wants action and week zero and week one line have been up for months. So all of these things have been just beaten, you know, beaten down. So, you know, when you look at Georgia Tech, you could have got them as high as a two-touchdown underdog. And this week you've seen a lot of steady money coming in on Georgia Tech, and it got as low as 10.

Yeah, my lean would be Georgia Tech, Kevin. I don't have a bet on the game. I might get there just to keep myself entertained on Saturday morning. But, yeah, the market is definitely moving towards Georgia Tech in this spot, for sure. Yeah. I'm not going to mention it yet, but they are a possibility in the final segment for smell test action. But I don't think I've ever had a week zero game. And your point is a good one.

These week zero and week one lines, by the way, it goes for the NFL as well. They're essentially put up once the schedule is announced or, you know, in the case of college football, you know, the times and the dates are announced. So people have been, you know, looking at these betters. have been looking at these for a while. In Georgia Tech, I thought it was 13 and a half, but if you say it's two touchdowns, it's gone from 14 down to 10. A lot of sharp money on Georgia Tech over the months.

But yeah, I don't know how I feel about a week zero wager. We'll see coming up. But what I wanted to do with you was for those people, and I think it's the majority of the audience listening, that don't follow college football kind of year round and just start to get into it once. The season begins. And I just want to take everybody through, you know, the changes that are going to make this season truly unique.

You know, all of the conference realignment and it's everywhere. I mean, we have no PAC 12 anymore. And then, of course, Tim, the thing that you and I have dreamt about, and that is the expanded playoff. We've got a 12-team playoff for the first time this year. The top four seeds will get buys, and then we will have a first round weekend in late December. That'll pit 5 versus 12, 6 versus 11, 7 versus 10, 8 versus 9 in home stadium environments. So some of the most iconic venues in all of sports will host playoff games in college football. Let's start there.

How pumped up are you about the 12-team playoff? I honestly think this is the best thing that's happening in a college football in a long, long time. And I was pumped about the 14 playoffs, didn't think it was enough. And I was worried that we were going to go to 16 and probably will get there. But I really think this is the perfect number because I think the 5 through 12 games will be very entertaining. having the auto buy is an incentive to keep the conference championship games with meaning. And for those who, once again, are just kind of parachuting in, there are four auto buys. You have to be a conference champion in order to qualify for that buy.

Yes, Notre Dame can never get a buy. if Oregon State and Ohio State, Kevin, our number one versus number two in the Big Ten championship game or Alabama, Georgia, whatever it may be in the SEC, the loser of that game will not be getting a buy. So you could be the number three team in the country, but you will not get a buy. So that's worth noting. But ranking teams five through eight will indeed have a home game. And we'll have a game on Friday, December 20th. And then we'll have a triple header on Saturday, December 21st, all on campus site. And then the quarterfinals, Kevin, will be December 31st.

You'll have one New Year's Eve game. And then we'll have three New Year's Day game, 1 p.m., 5 p.m. 845. The Rose Bowl will still be at 5 p.m. for that quarterfinal game. And then where it gets really fascinating for me is when you, look at the NFL schedule. Super wild card weekend starts Saturday, January 11th, Kevin. It goes Saturday, January 11th, Sunday, January 12th, triple header, Monday, January 13th, that one wildcard game. Thursday and Friday will be semi-final games. So it will be one of the best weekends of football of the entire calendar. Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Saturday, Saturday,

Sunday, Monday, semifinal, semi-final, wild-card weekend, wild-card weekend, wild-card weekend, and then the championship will take place

on Monday, January 20th, that will be the Monday after the divisional round weekend. So the schedule is as beautiful as really I could even imagine.

It is going to be absolutely unbelievable. I think you may have gotten just a couple of the dates wrong, but it's fine because it's still the same thing. But that, The NFL regular season ends on basically January 5th. It's that first weekend in January. And then that following week, like you said, Thursday, Friday for the two semifinal games.

One semifinal game, Thursday, January 9th, and that's the Orange Bowl. And then Friday night at the Cotton Bowl. and then you would have wild card Saturday, wild card Sunday, then wild card Monday night. Remember, you've got a wild card game Monday night as well. That'll be a hell of a weekend. I'm, you know, I think we've talked about this before, but I'm not happy about the way it shook out for the first playoff round, the first round, which will, you know, pit 5 against 12, 6 against 11, 7 against 10, 8 against 9,

with five through eight having home fields because the NFL chose to play football on Christmas Day on a Wednesday, which meant that the teams that are playing on Christmas Day have to play on Saturday, December 21st because they can't play a Sunday to Wednesday. And so you've got a double header for the NFL on that Saturday. And the NFL didn't want to do it. They didn't want to do it. They wanted to leave that day to college football. but because Christmas fell on a Wednesday, they had no choice.

So I think in the future, that day will be left for college football. But this year, we're going to have three first round games, you know, with two NFL games on, I think those are the, no, the Christmas Day games are the Netflix games, with two NFL games going head to head with the first two college games. There will be a college game on Friday night, but yeah. Yeah, and it will be, I mean, look, it's a good one. You know, that weekend, I agree. I mean, Houston at Kansas City, Pittsburgh at Baltimore, NBC and Fox for those two games.

So it's less than ideal, and that's why you actually saw to get in the weeds a little bit. ESPN traded those games to TNT. So you're actually going to get two first-round games, believe it or not, on TNT, and those are the two games they're going head-to-head with the NFL. Yeah, they'll be produced. by ESPN, run by ESPN. The broadcasters will be ESPN broadcasters. But you're right, they had to sell those two games, two of the three games on Saturday, December 21st to T&T. We're getting into the weeds on this one. It's stuff that you and I are interested. We're

interested in it. I don't know how many people are. The only other thing I would say about the playoff is that my personal preference would have been, I just think they, and they needed to use the bowls, so there was no way of getting around it. But the teams that get a buy, yes, you've got a better chance, obviously. You advanced to the quarterfinals without having to win a first round game, but you miss out on the revenue associated with a home game. Well, and that's the funny thing, Kevin, because there were some dokes who don't follow the sport like us, who started throwing out the hot take. And once again, this is a Notre Dame fan saying this.

But, oh, my God, Notre Dame, how could they agree to this? I'm like, you realize that Notre Dame's athletic director, Jack Swarbrick, now former AD, was on the committee creating this playoff. Notre Dame absolutely was all in on recognizing they couldn't get a buy because they want that home game in December, in South Bend, to bring in a ton of revenue. and a ton of eyeballs, and they don't have to play. They'll never have to play championship weekend. So like I mentioned, look, the SEC will probably have two top four teams, Kevin,

and one of them's not going to get a buy, and guess what? The team who loses the SEC championship game has to turn around in two weeks and play another game. So we've been in favor of this for a while, an expanded playoff. I love 12. I'm with you on the 12. I actually wish, also, let me just mention one other thing, I think they could have started it a week earlier, but that's beside the point. How about the pushback from some that it renders the regular season a lot less important? You say what to that?

I disagree wholeheartedly, and, you know, people will, you know, say that there's no reason to play challenging non-conference games. Well, you're looking at it from a negative standpoint. Like, if you win that game, you have a massive chip now on your pile of, hey, we went out, we challenged ourselves, and we got this win. So I don't think it waters it down. Maybe late November, if a team's got something locked up, could you see the, you know, quote, load management? It's possible. But I just don't agree with it. I mean, Kevin, look at the schedule this year.

They knew this was coming, and we've got non-conference games with Texas at Michigan. We've got Alabama going to Wisconsin. We've got Notre Dame going to Texas A&M. What I do wonder long-term is where the non-conference portion of the schedule will go. With these conferences continue to expand as much as they are, with the Big Ten having 18 teams, SEC having 16 teams, Big 12, 16 teams. And, you know, I know Lincoln Riley already talked about the Notre Dame USC game, maybe being on the chopping block at some point. So I think there's a possibility of that.

But, you know, let's be real. October 12th is going to be one of the best college football weekends we have seen in recent memory. And we're going to have, in my opinion, two of the best three teams in the country going head to head in a conference game with Ohio State visiting. Oregon. On that day, in a, quote, watered down regular season, we get to sit down and watch Ohio State at Oregon, Ole Miss at LSU, and Penn State at USC. You're telling me that doesn't get your blood going? Yeah. I mean, I'm told. Oh, by the way, oh, I forgot. You also have Texas at Oklahoma. And in SEC matchup, we'll get to that in a moment. I am totally with you. I'd add that, look, the bottom line is you're not eliminated now after one loss if you're a certain program.

You're not eliminated after two losses if you're a certain program. That by definition means that there are more meaningful games in the regular season than there ever have been because you've got teams that haven't been eliminated from a playoff race. And then you get to conference championship weekend. How many years have we seen in conference championship weekend, maybe one to two of the championship games actually have meaning? Now they'll pretty much all have meaning to a certain degree, unless you get some, you know, they'll all have meaning because you're not even in divisions anymore.

And so it's truly the top two teams that are facing off for a bid and potentially a first round buy. So I just think you add many more meaningful games to the season when you expand the playoffs. And to your point, I think that's also worth noting, is the days of Florida State Duke, the days of Ohio State Northwestern, Michigan, Iowa, those days are over. We are now going to get the two best teams in each conference playing each other in that conference championship games. So we don't get a Big Ten championship like we've had the last how many years, Kevin, where it's like, great, the winner of Ohio State Michigan gets to beat the living hell out of some jabroney from the Big Ten West. Didn't we have a Wake Forest, Georgia Tech ACC CCC final one year? Or was it Wake Forest Duke?

I mean, yes, you're not going to get that anymore. On championship weekend is going to be so much more important than it's ever been. But look, the last few weekends of the regular season, you're going to see teams fighting and scrapping to be potential at large bids to grab at large bids, even if they're not in contention for a conference championship. Yeah, that'll be great. So the next thing I wanted to get to for those that are just kind of tuning in on this is there's a ton of conference realignment that you've got to be aware of. because all hell broke loose. Some of this broke loose a few years ago. But, you know, I'll walk through it.

And you can add your thoughts as we go conference by conference. The ACC is now up to 17 universities after adding to the Atlantic Coast Conference, Cal, Stanford, and SMU. And we certainly see in the offing the potential egg. of Florida State. So your thoughts on what we now have in the ACC? Yeah, I would say of all the conferences, the ones that move the needle the least, are what the ACC did with Cal and Stanford coming in, at least from a football and even a basketball standpoint. I would say this, the SMU edition, I think, is pretty intriguing

because they're pumping a ton of money into their programs, and they're not even asking for money the first handful of years from the TV right. They just wanted to be invited. They didn't want to be left out. I think FMU is a pretty intriguing team. This year, their schedule is pretty soft. They only have to play Florida State of the perceived big boys. So their schedule is pretty manageable.

There's a lot of people in my world, the betting world, that bet over their win total early on in the year at seven and a half and even at eight. but I think of the three that intrigued me the most, it would be SMU. But, yeah, Stanford and Cal was a pretty kind of head-scratching, like, okay, this is pretty odd that they're now going to be in the ACC. All right. Let's stick with the ACC, and I'll do this conference by conference as we mentioned the changes via alignment. Who do you have winning the ACC and who advances to the 12-team? playoff.

I think the ACC ends up with two teams in the playoff. I don't have massive conviction on it, but I will say Clemson plays Miami in the ACC championship game and Clemson gets the win. I just feel like there's been a lot of negativity revolving around Clemson's program because of Davo's unwillingness to go into the portal. and I think there's some validity to that and criticism is definitely warranted. But I think this Clemson team still pretty loaded up on defense. They still recruited a high level.

I think Garrett Riley, their offensive coordinator, very intriguing second year there for him going in as the offensive coordinator. So I'll take Clemson over Miami. I think Florida states for their standards and how well they've been playing, Kevin. I'll just say it takes a little bit of a step back this year. You look at their schedule, they have to go on the road to SMU. They host Clemson at Miami at Notre Dame and they wrap up against Florida. So I think Clemson or Florida State, maybe a nine and three team this year. And I'll say that Miami, even though I don't trust their coach at all, we'll just have enough talent.

Real quickly, I'll say this for the local folks. Virginia Tech is a team that brings back a ton of production from a year ago, Kevin. I think their game September 27th against Miami is going to be very fascinating. on a Friday night down there in Miami. I'm sure Hokie Faithball will show up. They have a home game against Clemson and November. Kyrin Drones is a really athletic guy who emerged late in the season for them and helped them get to a bowl game.

So I think Virginia Tech, there's a lot of hype around them. And then NC State's got some hype too. This is a team preseason top 25. They brought in Grayson McCall from Coastal Carolina to be their quarterback. And Robert and I is their offensive quarterback. coordinator, former OC of Syracuse and, or at UVA, I beg your pardon, and didn't really work out with Brennan Armstrong last year. And I think NC State's got some dudes. They got a Duke transfer at running back. They've got a really big-time receiver and Kevin Concepcion. So I think

NC State's a team that week two, they played Tennessee in Charlotte on a neutral site. I think that could be a fun one to see what they've got this year. But Dave Doran squad could be a a spicy team too in the ACC. So you got Clemson and you've got Miami as a playoff team? I do. Yeah, I think, all right. I think Miami, I'll say this. If I had a guess, Kevin, right now, I would say Florida will be a smell test play in week one when they host Miami, but I think Miami should be able to get into the playoffs with like a 10 and 2 or 10 and 3 record. All right. The Big 10 now has 18 programs. up from 14, Oregon, USC, UCLA, and last year's runner-up, Washington, all now Big Ten teams.

Does Oregon win the Big Ten in their first year in the league? I think they do. I think Oregon's the best team in the Big Ten. Ohio State's really, really good, too. I think my prediction on that is the winner of the game on October 12th and Eugene. Ohio State, Oregon loses the Big Ten championship game. I feel like these two teams are going to split on the year. But this Oregon team, I'm in love with it. They have arguably the best wide receivers in the country, Kevin. I think they got an upgrade at quarterback,

and yes, that's an upgrade from 12th overall pick, Bo NICS. I think Dylan Gabriel coming in from Oklahoma, previous that to UCF. And I love Dan Lannick. I think this dude's the real deal. You know, a long time, SEC assistant most recently at Georgia, and this roster is built to win a national championship. Will they do it?

I don't know, but I'll tell you this, they're around a minus 300 favorite to make the college football playoffs. This team, if they don't make the playoffs, it would be deemed an utter disaster, in my opinion. So I really like this Oregon team. They do have to go to Michigan in early November, in addition to playing Ohio State. But I think this team is built to win a national championship. and I think they slightly edge out Ohio State as the best team in the conference. Is there a third Big Ten team in the playoff or not?

Yeah, Penn State should be in. If they're not, James Franklin should be very much questioned. I mean, when you look at the way that the playoffs expanded, you know, James Franklin, I give him credit for this. He went out and he knew he needed to make a change. I think he fired his O.C. midseason last year, Mike Gier said he wasn't working out. They went out and got one of the best offensive minds in college football and Andy Coltonicky from Kansas.

They lost Manny Diaz. Their de-coordinator at Duke to be their head coach. But they brought in Tom Allen, a very well-known and respected defense of mind, former Indiana coach. And Penn State's got the goods, and they've got the schedule to make the college football playoff. They host Ohio State. They don't play Michigan.

They don't play Oregon. The schedule's there. Win total is 10 and a half. If Penn State doesn't make the playoffs, I think it should be deemed a bit of a disappointment for James Franklin. So, you know, three teams, in my opinion, are going to make the playoffs, and I think it will be Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State. A couple other teams are intriguing, certainly,

but those three teams are all favored to make the playoffs, and I think they all should make the playoff. One of the really good opening week, and I say week one next weekend, Penn State at West Virginia. in Morgantown, that is a must win for James Franklin and the Nittney Lions. Money going against, Kevin. I know you like to keep an eye on the market. Money going against Penn State. That game down from 10 to 8 and a half right now. So money going on the boys from Morgantown. It feels right. Two other quick questions. You answered the Franklin

question. Is it more important for Ryan? day to beat Michigan this year or make the playoff? If they don't make the playoff, he should be fired with this roster. Ohio State is loaded for bear. They put every dollar on it. To answer your question, I think it's probably more important to beat Michigan,

but I think it goes hand in hand. I don't know how you don't make the playoff if you beat Michigan. But this roster, this coaching staff, Ryan Day, and I know that Ohio State fans are cuckoo for Cocoa Puff sometimes, but Kevin, you look at this roster, man. I don't know how this team isn't in the semifinals this year.

It is absolutely loaded. You bring in Chip Kelly to be your offensive coordinator. Everywhere you look, you've got big-time players. I'm not the biggest Will Howard guy. Their new quarterback from Kansas State, outside of that, though, loaded running back room with Trayvionn-Henderson and Quinchon Judkins, the transfer from Old Miss, Emeka Agbuka came back. Jeremiah Smith, their wide receiver, is an absolute freak of nature. Freshman phenom.

Carnell Tate was a freshman phenom a year ago. So you think he's going to take another step forward. Some of their defensive talent is back for another year. I think J.C. Tuili Ulau, I'm sure I've butchered that, but he was a fringe first round pick, came back for another year. So Ohio State has to make the playoff. They have to beat Michigan. This is the year Ryan Day needs, and it's all set up for him.

Yeah, I actually liked Will Howard, and I think they'll be much better quarterback than they were last year. All right, so let's go to the SEC where there are two new additions, Oklahoma and Texas. We've known that that one was coming for a while, so there are now 16 teams in the SEC. Who wins the SEC and how many teams from the SEC? make the postseason. Georgia wins the SEC, but my goodness, man. This conference is just outrageous. You know, you can make an argument that Texas A&M is the eighth or ninth best

team in this conference, and they're a three-point favorite week one against Notre Dame. I mean, this conference is an absolute gauntlet. Georgia is ridiculously loaded. I think they'll be wildly motivated after, you know, the SEC championship a year ago. Carson Beck, we'll see if he makes the next step in the right direction as a potential number one overall pick. Their schedule's brutal, man.

They go Clemson, Non-Con, at Bama, at Texas, at Ole Miss. Like, they are, they are, they have a lot of potential landmines, but George is just that loaded up. I'll say, I'm trying to do the math in my head, but I said 2-8CC, 2 Big 10, that would be five. I think it's four SET. You had three big ten, yeah. So you're at five, correct. All right, so Georgia and then... Okay, give me the other three after Georgia.

Texas? You have a group of... Yeah, I'll say Old Miss. Okay. I'll say Bama. And I'll say, I really don't want to say Texas, but I'll say Texas does get in there. I think Texas takes

some bumps along the way. But I think it's like Texas. I think Tennessee has the potential to make the playoff this year. Missouri is kind of the team that a lot of people are looking at their schedule and expecting them to emerge through that schedule with

a lot coming back. Brady Cook, their quarterback, Luther Burden's a name to know. He's an elite wide receiver. They're coming off an 11-win season. But I think there could be a little regression coming from Missouri. Bama, I don't know what to expect from Bama. I mean, Kailen Dabor wins everywhere he goes, but, you know, it's not saving.

So what does that team look like? And then, you know, lastly, LSU is a team that, they're fascinating to me, Kevin. Week 1, they play USC in Las Vegas on the Sunday night spot. Third year for Brian Kelly. Third year for Brian Kelly at Cincinnati, he went undefeated at Cincinnati. third year for Brian Kelly at Notre Dame. He went undefeated and led them to the national championship game. The third year at LSU.

They lost Jaden Daniel. They lost Malik neighbors. They lost Brian Thomas, all first round picks. They lost their offensive coordinator, Mike Denbrock. Their defense was an absolute sieve a year ago. They brought in a new defensive coordinator. I don't know what to expect from LSU this year. So, yeah, that's kind of my two cents on the SEC.

Seashemeier will be the quarterback, right? Yeah, Garrett Nussmeier's got some experience. Look, they'll always have talent. They got talent. But I just, they lost, I mean, you lose the Heism and trophy winner and two first round picks at wide receiver, and you lost your leading Russia in Logan Biggs, who went to Ole Miss. Like, they lost a lot. Well, I guess their leading Russia was actually Jade Daniels.

But I just, look, they're not going to stink. And Brian Kelly is a, I think, the top five. coach, maybe top 10, if you want to be a little bit more liberal with that. But I think he's a really good coach. And I just think that there has to be a step back offensively. But maybe the defense takes a big step up. We've got three playoff teams to get to. One comes from the non-power five. So we'll get to that in a moment. But the last league of now the big four, because the PAC 12, I think most of you know, lost all of their schools except for Oregon State and Washington State.

The Big 12 added Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah. They lost Oklahoma and Texas. I mean, you know, with the additions in recent years, BYU and Cincinnati and UCF, that's the league that nobody could answer. Who are the 16 schools right now for $1,000? Nobody could do it even a hardcore college football fan couldn't. But who wins the Big 12 and how many teams? do they get, the max right now would be two?

Because I know you've got... They get one. Yeah. They get one. And this is going to be, I think, the most fun conference in college football. Because there is so much parody in this conference. And there's going to be late night games. There's going to be games all over the map.

There's a lot of fun in this conference. But Utah brings back Cam Rising, who I think might be as old as you. Kevin, I'm not sure. It's a slightly younger. Yeah, slightly younger. He's a seventh year senior. Yeah, forever. Missed all of last year.

You know, somehow, Kyle Whittingham got this team to eight wins a year ago. He's an incredible coach, Kyle Wittingham is. So I think Utah wins this conference, but I think there's a lot of parity. You know, the team that I think is really fascinating from a high-sealing standpoint is UCF. KJ Jefferson, the Arkansas quarterback, former Arkansas. quarterback is now with Gus Malzon. Gus Malton earlier this offseason said he's the closest to Cam Newton that he's had since he coached Cam back in 2010.

This is O.C. at Auburn. So there's a lot of intrigue in this conference. Obviously, Coach Prime is in this conference now, too, with his son and Travis Hunter. So, you know, this conference I've talked about, I feel like at nauseam, this whole offseason. It's a really, really fun conference. Kansas State has the potential. So it'll be really good.

They've got a young up-and-coming quarterback. His name is Avery Johnson, who's got a lot of Heisman buzz. Oklahoma State brings back a ton of production from a year ago, a team that made it to the college, to the Big 12th championship game, Kevin. So Arizona, you know, they lost their head coach, Jed Fish, but they kept Noah Fafita, their quarterback. They kept their elite wide receiver in McMillan,

who very well could be the first wide receiver selected in the NFL draft. I mean, this conference is really, really fun, and you're going to see some big-time upsets. I think you and I are going to bet this conference a lot, Kevin, this year. I think Kyle Whittingham is one of the best coaches in college football, and they've got real experience in Cam Rising. That would be my pick there. So ultimately, who do you have advancing to the playoff, winning the Big 12? Utah.

Okay. That leaves two teams left. I'm assuming Notre Dame is one for you. Correct? I do think Notre Dame gets in. I think they're very vulnerable week one. To A&M. I think, yeah, I think Notre Dame is the deepest they've been in a long, long time. I'm a fan of Riley Leonard, their quarterback. They bolstered up the wide receiver room. Riley Leonard, for those of you that remember the Duke quarterback, who's transferred to take Sam Hartman's job. Yes. And then, you know, from a defensive standpoint, Notre Dame has a bunch of six-year seniors.

Their best player from an NFL prospect standpoint is Benjamin Morrison, their corner. He's a true junior. Al Golden is entering year three as their defensive coordinator. So I just think from a defensive standpoint, this is going to be one of the best defenses in the country. And Kevin, this schedule makes up really well. They have three true road games. That's it. They go to Texas A&M at Purdue, who's down, and then they wrap up the season at USC.

They host Florida State in November off a box. and they host Louisville. They're a favorite in every game outside of Texas A&M game. So I do think Notre Dame gets in. And then the group of five, man, I think is a really interesting conversation because I'll just be quick on this. Liberty is in Conference USA. They made the Fiesta Bowl last year.

They got the group of five bid, and they got absolutely embarrassed by Oregon, lost 42 to 6. That said, Kevin, their schedule is, by many, believed to be the easiest schedule in college football this year. They don't play a power 14 on their schedule. They have to go to Appalachian State at the end of September in a non-con game. They host East Carolina in a non-con game. The TUSA is an absolute joke of a conference.

It got worse because New Mexico State lost their head coach and their quarterback. So the conference has gotten worse, and they're probably going to go undefeated. And the question I have is, Boise State, they've got all the hype in the world, but they've got a first-time head coach and Spencer Danielson. They've got a quarterback that people thought was going to be a five-star Malik Nelson, the transfer from USC. He didn't win the job in camp. They have to go to Oregon. They have to go to UNLV. It was a pretty darn good Mountain West program. I just don't know if Boise

State is going to be as untouched as most people anticipate. And then the other team that people are given a lot of hype around is Memphis. But from a schedule standpoint, Memphis, who brings back a lot, Kevin, they have to play the three best teams in that conference all on the road. So Memphis has to go to Florida State, has to go to UTSA, has to go to South Florida, and have to go to Tulane. So I think Memphis, from a talent perspective, is probably the best G5 team. They've got a fifth-year quarterback in Seth Pennington. But, I just, I don't know. I really don't have a good feel on who's going to be the G5 representative.

I think it ultimately is just going to be a surprise. Some people think it could be like Texas State, a team that's getting a lot of buzz there with their unique style of offense. So if I had to give you a prediction right now, I'll say Memphis, but I've got a lot of questions because the schedule is pretty challenging for them in the AAC. All right. Let's finish up with this. Who wins the national championship and who wins the high?

Heisman trophy. Georgia beat Oregon in the national championship will be my prediction, even though I really want to go Oregon. I just think Georgia's too deep, and they're just loaded up. I'll run through the Heisman odds. So I think the Heisman real quickly is really interesting this year because of the expanded playoffs. And now I think voters will be willing to look at more people.

It's going to be a quarterback. We've only had four non-quarterbacks in the last 20 years or so. Devante Smith won it and had a couple running backs when it Reggie Bush won at 05. But Dylan Gabriel would be a cop-out because he's the odds. He's a favorite at plus 750. And if I wasn't looking at it from a betting standpoint, I would say Dylan Gabriel. The guy that I actually did bet to win the Heisman is Nico Ima Leiava. He's a quarterback in Tennessee. And he was a former five-star.

I just think that the offense that Josh Heifle runs, as we saw with Hendon Hooker two years ago, is very, very quarterback-friendly, leads to big-time numbers, going to play big-time games. So if I went a little bit further down the board, I would say Nico Imaleava for Heisman. But to keep it boring, I'll say Dylan Gabriel wins it, but he's the favorite. So I'll say my actual bet, and I'll say Nico emailing out of the Wednesday. That's hard to say, but it is bold. Thank you for doing this. I appreciate it. Listen to Tim, follow Tim, and we'll have Tim on periodically through the season like we always do.

Enjoy week zero in the game tomorrow. Thanks. All right, Gavin. See you. Tim Murray, everybody. Love having Tim on the show, especially this time of year. One more segment on the show, and I'm really looking forward to it. Raphael Esparsa, who is one of the head odds makers at My Bookie and has been one of the big-time odds makers in Vegas for many, many years. He will join us.

We'll look ahead to the NFL season and talk a lot about sports betting. If you're into it, you'll love Raphael. He joins us next right after these words from a few of our sponsors. This segment of the show is brought to you by MyBooky. Go to MyBooky.com. Use my promo code Kevin D.C. MyBooky will give you a cash bonus on your initial deposit. All of the numbers for tomorrow's college games are up, including Florida State Georgia Tech, where the Knowles right now are 10.5 point favorites in Dublin over Georgia Tech. All the games next week and all the week one lines in the NFL are up.

And as I've mentioned, for the last couple of months, all of the NFL futures are up there. And joining me right now is one of the head odds makers at my bookie, Raphael Esparsa. You can follow him on X on Twitter at VSI Doc Sports. We just had a nice conversation before we started recording because Raphael's done a lot of work as an odds maker and a betting analyst. for a lot of different places. And I was sharing with him, and it's just kind of funny because, you know, when you're younger and you're betting and you go back to the 80s, there were all of these, you know, there were 800 numbers, there were 900 numbers, there were subscription services.

And I remember some of the same places you remember. I was a customer of docs, sports. I was a customer of underdog. I mean, this is back before I kind of. to figure out that I knew what I was talking about as much as some of these people did, but it was a wild west time, although really the true wild west was when everything, you know, started to get legalized, you know, in the last few years. But you've been around for all of it over the years, right? Yeah, our conversation, I think more gray hairs popped up because you were

bringing me back to the old days when it sounds like that. So thank you for making me feel a little bit older, but yeah, I've been in this energy for 25-plus years in Vegas, work that started at Caesar's Palace, which really the first book to open up betting prepets. We got crushed when William Perry scored a touchdown for the Chicago Bears. Why didn't they give it to Walter Payton still blows my mind? But yeah, yeah, I've been around and like I said, now working for my bookie, geez, almost close to 10, almost 10 years now, either head odds maker, Glott's, consultant, whatever, and stuff like that. But yeah, yeah, been doing prep bets, mostly do a lot of future prop bets and who's going to get traded next.

Who's head coach is going to get fired and stuff? So it's a very interesting job. And now it just gets busier because every state keeps on getting added to adding more betting information. What were the odds? Do you remember on the fridge scoring a touchdown in that Super Bowl? Cesar's opened them up, I think, close to 70 to 1. Our next door of Mirage, who's right next to the sportsbook, they opened up close to 75 to 1.

And we were second, I think, to post it around there. We did 70 because we knew the public was going to be all over it. And, boy, were we correct on that one. I still think they're cashing tickets right now on that profit. Do you remember the largest wager you took on it at 70 to 1? I think I would be shocked if their max bet was $100. Because back then, prefits were so, so brand new. And some of those profits, even now in Vegas or in New,

your open up your app or stuff like that. I'm going to prep this or maybe max bets like only $500. So I would be shocked if it was more than $100 at the time. That's crazy. I reminded you of, so for those that have no idea what I'm talking about, back in the day and even now, you know, you can subscribe to services to kind of help you make picks. That's what I'm here for, though, with the smell test each week, sponsored each week by MyBooky. at MyBooky.ag.

But Doc Sports was world-renowned for his Big Ten lock of the year bet. And we were talking about this because I remember, you know, the 80s and the 90s, like that thing, you were waiting once the Big Ten scheduled, schedule started for Doc to have his Big Ten play of the year because he hit on it. How many consecutive years did he hit on it before it became? came something that moved the number in a massive way in Vegas? I think it was this 10th one in a row where us, Odsbaker's like, okay, we need to call this number.

Someone needs to pay for this so we can get ahead of the game on that. Well, I do believe it was his tempo, but it was crazy. I've only seen a small handful of people that actually move numbers, and he would be the first one because I was just brand-new spanking new into the Vegas sportsbook life when I heard of Doc Sports in this Big Ten game of you. The last one that I know whose move numbers, he's still moved numbers, is Billy Walters, which I worked with him for over, geez, over five years when I was the director at Aria. That was his place that he would bet, so I got to know Billy really well and get to see his action through the window

that I still have nightmares today when he would kick our butts on a Sunday, and Monday I would be yelled at by the bosses. But wouldn't you, and I've heard the stories about Billy Walters before, whether he was betting through, you know, kind of a syndicate or on his own, wasn't there good value in knowing who he had? I tell people no, because a lot of times he manipulated the books. He would bet on Thursday. I'll take the Monday night game, but the Kansas City, or the Thursday night game, Baltimore and Kansas City. Let's see, he would bet Kansas City right now at two and a half or three, whatever the number is right now. And then the world would know, Billy just bet Kansas City at two and a half.

So everyone starts betting it. Now it's moving to four, four and a half, five. Now it's Thursday, and it's five, five and a half. Here he comes. You know what, give me Baltimore plus five, and he bet more on the other side because he wanted that number. So no, and I know a handful of sports better that do that. So just because you may know some who's really good or even a syndicates who are really good. Some of them sometimes you're betting, they're moving that number for their,

the best number they can get. That's why I always say it, just because someone's red hot, they may be manipulating that number so they can get the best number at kickoff. You know, I've tried to explain this to my listeners over the years that, you know, this should be for entertainment purposes only. But with respect to, you know, the number of people who truly can move a number, that group is not as large as some people think. think it is correct?

That is 110% correct, not as large. And I tell people you have to look at it. If you're really into sports, if you're just looking at it, you know what, I'm off on Thursdays, the first game, September 5th, the wife's in bed, the kids are in bed, I'm going to watch Baltimore Kansas City. Then that's fine. Don't purchase anything or subscription or anything, bet you're $20. If you're really interested in making some money on football season, then you have to

look at it as the stock market. You're playing numbers. You're not playing for the jersey name on the front or the name on the back. you're playing for that number that you think that you want to get, not the names of those teams that are playing. Yeah. All right. Let's talk about some of the NFL.

You mentioned first coach to get fired. I'm assuming Siriani is the favorite. Am I right? You are 100th, correct, on that one. So, yeah, it's going to be very interesting. Who gets it? It's just like in college football. The Florida head coach has just drew a blank on the name on that one.

But he's the head first one for heads of college football. college. Yeah, they have a huge week one game with Miami at home. Billy Napier, you're talking about. I went blank on it. I had to look at up. Thank you. It's driving me crazy. Yeah, real quickly. So let's talk some of the season totals. And the team that for us is the most important team is Washington. Their total at my bookie for the season is six and a half. Where do you see kind of the betting trends on their total? and is there an over or an under that you actually think makes sense for them? What a Benny's just, let's face it, now that they have a quarterback announced, how good is this quarterback going to be if he's going to be like how he was in preseason

where he had some really good shines of impressment. They get him throwing the ball down to field his legs for the quick play into the end zone. Then I think the over at six and a half lane that you set minus 130 works, if you're going to look at how Indianapolis did last year for rookie quarterback, that God hurt, only played four games, really did well on those four games, especially through his legs. Then maybe take a shot to under-plus money. I think, okay, maybe this kid's not going to stay healthy. They really don't have good backup quarterbacks.

I think their defense may be a little bit better in Washington. I think the offense aligned can use some help. I do think they can hang around on week one and play Washington, but their schedule is pretty tough. And I think that division's tough. I would lean towards the plus money because don't forget if you play total season wins, us as odds makers might book you know that we put. refresh total season wins out on week three.

Now you have a chance to middle a number or maybe get that number you really want after week three. You see what the plays, what your team looks like after three games. I like the plus money on the under, but it wouldn't shock me if Daniels, who impressed me at LSU, that this one goes over. The Eagles are going to be a tough out in that division. Where's the most exposure in terms of season totals, either an over or an under right now, where there's just a ton of one-sided action on one team one way or the other?

It's the Chicago Bears. Chicago Bears over, Atlanta Falcons over, and the Pittsburgh Steelers under. Those three are probably the biggest one. I think the Bears has the most tickets written on them just because I have never seen a rookie quarterback, Williams, have so much talent around him his rookie season. Normally, you're a rookie quarterback and you have nothing because a team that picked you stunk last year. This Bears team, they don't really stink last year, but they improved so much on offense and in D.BT has so much talent.

I think that's why the public's thinking, you know what, now that Minnesota is missing a quarterback, they could be maybe the dog team in that division coming last place. Who knows if Detroit can go back to back having two winning seasons? Because last time I checked Detroit, Detroit, Detroit still plays Detroit football when it comes to that. I think the Packers win the division. But if the Bears 500 or even win the division, we have a lot of tickets to win that division, too, it could be a very, very long football season. I have to explain to my both.

I only lived in Chicago for 21 years. I'm not a Bears fan. Right. Well, I mean, it is minus 161 right now at my bookie to play over eight and a half on the Bears. And I think everybody understands the Falcons as well with cousins and with some of the talent they have in a weaker division. And you said Pittsburgh is a big exposure right now on under eight and a half. Yeah, which Tomlin never had a losing season at Pittsburgh 16 years.

That's crazy that stat. But when you have two quarterbacks, you have zero quarterbacks, and either of those two quarterbacks did not impress me so far. Russell Wilson, I bet that he wouldn't even make the team. If he has a horrible week this week, they maybe cut him, release him or whatever, because I don't see him being a backup to Justin Fields. So I need Justin Fields to have a really, really nice game, and maybe I can catch that Russell Wilson ticket, not making the team.

But, man, their quarterbacks have been really, really bad so far. Do you think Kansas City is better this year than they were last year? Every time I say that Patrick Wilhelm's flips me the bird and laughs at me on Super Bowl Sunday when he's getting another ring, they're going to be, there's the worst team I've ever seen coming back from a Super Bowl hangover. I mean, both teams have been partying the tight ends all over the world of his girlfriend. I mean, I just don't see them having. And I know Patch Mahal was the greatest quarterback so far we've ever seen it.

The public keeps on reminding me. But they're three years. They're only 32, 28, and 1 against the spread. They remind me of the Chicago Bulls when they were 72 and 10, but couldn't cover any games. I think they take a small step backwards. I don't see a three-peat this year for the Chiefs. I wanted to ask you real quickly, the preseason games, I think going into last night, the unders were like 26 and 6.

I think it was. I mean, I'm just curious, just preseason action all together. Is it enough action that, you know, I would assume that the public, as you know, typically loves to play overs more than unders. They love to play favorites more than underdogs. But did the 26 and 6 underrun help most books? It does. I mean, this year it's been helpful that the Baltimore Ravens have not won.

games in the preseason. Oh, right. Yeah. The best preseason. Yeah. The records that helped us a lot. But, yeah, the unders have been coming in, but you just said it. If you're going to sit around and watch a preseason game,

aka my twin brother, who loves betting the favorite and over, favor of it and over, that's why he can thank you cards for my bookie all the time. I guarantee you people are betting the San Francisco 49ers and the over on tonight's game, which is nine now, which is because Raiders said they're not playing their starters. but that total is 32 and a half. Everyone's going to see that. It's got to go over 32 and a half. Even though the unders have been cashing, the public will always bet,

and we're not taking six-figure bets on preseason football. Most of these bets are 20-50s. Yeah, I was going to ask you what your – $100.000. Yeah, I was going to ask you. You don't have much of exposure this time of year anyway, right? No, I mean, some of the biggest exposures we have is Aaron judge hitting a home run more than we have preseason football.

Right. What's your biggest liability? in terms of Super Bowl bets right now, winning the Super Bowl? You know, even though they have it won one-one or one, but every year the Packers probably have the most tickets written. Really? But just like the Cubs always have the most tickets written in the World Series,

and they've only won one-one. There's certain teams that just, they just get bet all the time. Packers, Saints, Steelers, New England, those teams, but I think the Packers of Jordan Love getting their, getting his contract, and getting some really nice pieces on office. I have them winning the vision, but they're not the biggest. I mean, Kansas City, of course, just because people will love to see the three-peed.

But tickets written, and I can guarantee you week after week when Green Bay wins, then flooded tickets come in on Super Bowl and NFC, they would be close to a minus by like week 15. Then we'll have to try to hedge off action to get them in a plus to win a Super Bowl. Right. All right, let me just ask you about tomorrow. I'm assuming most sports books everywhere are going to need Georgia Tech. A lot of public action on Florida State.

It would seem like there's some sharp action on Georgia Tech. But for the first game of the year tomorrow, do you guys need a side? I think as of right now we probably need Georgia Tech, but really small. We got action. This one opened up at 13.5. It's been floating around 10 and a half. Some Vegas books moved it to 11. One Vegas book and one global book actually moved it to 12, like maybe 15.

15 minutes ago. So it's going to be very interesting. I think we need the over. Everyone's betting the under on this game. So I think we'll probably drop, we'll probably have to drop it back to where we opened up around 54 and a half. But it's going to be very interesting. I took Georgia Tech plus 13.5 in May when this number came out because Georgia Tech was a covering machine last year, especially as a dog. And I have huge questions about Florida State's quarterback. Rick. Yeah, me too. DJU has not done it for me, whether it was Clemson, Oregon State, doesn't matter. I have huge questions about him as well. Real quickly, before I let you run it, I really appreciate the time. Week one, NFL, you know, we're still two weeks away from it, but is there anything that sticks out in the first 16 games where you think this is, you know, you got a lot of liability, a lot of exposure, meaning a lot of action on one.

side so far. I think Dallas and Cleveland is probably more intriguing. As the last time I checked, there's three guys still not signed for the Dallas Cowboys. The last time I checked, that textbook is full of cash. This one opened up Cleveland minus one. Now it's two, two and a half, wherever you're looking at, especially at my bookie. We're probably going to have to move this close to three because Cleveland money continues to come in.

I love this Cleveland defense. If Watson can do anything in a backfield, they're 65 to 1 and win the Super Bowl, and that defense was fantastic. And they won games of Joe Flackle last year. And I like Winston as a backup quarterback. He's a great leader. Even when he's not playing, people love him in the locker room, how he speaks his voice and stuff like that.

This Cleveland team is going to be interesting. I'm not sullen this down. Dallas had the worst summer of all time. James Winston, for whatever reason, I've just always loved him. I was convinced when he got picked number one over on 2015. He was going to be a star. and what you just said is why he keeps getting opportunities everywhere he goes.

And I don't know that the public, general public understands how well-liked and beloved he is by teammates, coaches, and typically the community that he's in. That's going to be an interesting situation. Of course, when he plays, he throws it to the other team just as much as he throws it to his team, which has always been his problem. Real quickly, Washington now plus three. Tampa down to a three-point favorite. They have been as high as four, four-and-a-half at My Bookie for the opener. So, I mean, some sharp money probably pushing that number down a little bit.

Do you have an early lean one way or the other for Washington's opener at Tampa? Yeah, we're going to be big Baker-Maker fans on Sunday. Tia, Washington's going to be one of those ones that we need the home team to win this one. And I'm going to see how low this one number because we continue to get the Washington Magics or Commodores or whatever you want to call them. I think Magic changes the name. But we continue to get Washington money. We're going to be big Baker-Macon-May. Tampa's very interesting because now Baker-Makefield got paid. He doesn't have to worry about where he's going to go next year.

How comfortable is he going to be knowing that he has a home? Tampa Bay is going to be very interesting this season. Don't even get me started, or I should say most of us started on the name. It's hard for me even to say commanders. I'm curious. We did have odds that will he, will Magic Johnson change it? I'm going to put, I should put that back up there next before week one, just to stir the pot up in one. So what would the odds be?

Because I've given my own, let me just tell you before. No, I want to hear you say it, because I've actually given my own odds. I've given my price on the name changing eventually, but I want to hear how you would do it. What would you post today? I want the red blacks. That's who I would like to see. I don't know. I'm going to have to go back and look at that,

and I do have some contacts in Washington to see what they're hearing when I refresh the odds up. But I like the Washington football team. I thought that was kind of, I loved the logo of it. I thought that was kind of cool and fresh and kind of hip because now you can hashtag. just the three letters, which you did, which is really good now these days in social media. But yeah, I'm going to have to research, but I don't know why I like the red-black so much. Well, I'm just talking about the name-changing period. So let me just-

Oh, I do believe he changes it. I do believe Magic changes it. Magic's not the majority owner. You do know it, right? I know, but he's Magic Johnson. He's Magic Johnson. So I posted it. I didn't post it. I'm acting like you. I gave out my, I think at one point I gave out minus 150 that it would change.

I think I'm probably down to just like minus 140, minus 135 somewhere around there. But I've got it favored to change one day. And there's been so much conversation. I have no idea if you guys even understand how big of a topic it is with the fan base that's, you know, say 35, 40 years of age or older. but it's still a massive deal. Rafael, this was great. I really appreciate it. Let's do it again soon.

Yeah, anytime. I've been a big fan of years. I have a good friend of mine that's a chef out in the Washington area, so I told him I was going to be on your show. He listens to you all the time, so I was a big fan of that. I appreciate it. Well, let's do it again soon. Thanks, Raphael.

Have a good weekend. Yeah, enjoy the football. All right, that is it for the show today. Enjoy the weekend. I'll be back on Monday recapping the final pre-season. in game and maybe even have a few predictions on some of the cuts that will be coming, I'm sure, Monday and Tuesday. Have a good weekend.