The Kevin Sheehan Show - Redskins' Last Chance

Episode Date: October 18, 2019

Kevin opened with the Patrick Mahomes injury, his Denver "Smell Test" loss, and the ALCS. He previewed Skins-49ers, the rest of the NFL, and had 9 more "Smell Test" picks. <p> </p><p>Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices">podcastchoices.com/adchoices</a></p> Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You want it. You need it. It's what everyone's talking about. The Kevin Sheehan Show. Now here's Kevin. All right, I am here. Corbyn is sitting in for Aaron today. Aaron's out of town at a wedding this weekend. We're going to do a shorter podcast today. I am headed up to Penn State for a big weekend of hanging out with my youngest son. Corbin and the family are coming with me. And we're going to see Penn State Michigan tomorrow night at in state college. Big whiteout game. We were there, last year for the Ohio State, Penn State game. So looking forward to that. But we're going to get you all of the things we normally do on a football Friday. First of all, let me thank Mama Lucia, who brings us lunch on Thursdays and Fridays occasionally. And they've got a really good deal going right now. It's called the Howie Special, a side Greek salad, a meat lasagna dinner, garlic bread, and Jimmy's sauce, all for just $15.

You can dine out, you can carry out or delivery, just. ask for it by name, the Howie special. It's an offer that's good until the first pitch of Game 1 of the World Series. You can find out all the information at mamaluchia restaurants.com. They brought pizza for us, so we're excited about that. All right, the big news coming off of last night was the injury to Patrick Mahomes. But before we get to that, I mean, I can't believe some of you would rip me for losing that smell test pick last night. I got threatening tweets from a few of you. That was a bit much, actually.

One in particular that I got that essentially, you know, threatened to beat my ass if they see me for giving out Denver again as if Denver's been a big loser for you. I've given Denver out as a smell test pick four times this year. I'm two and two on the Broncos. the way, you probably won money because I encouraged you to play Denver on the money line a few weeks back when they were seven-point underdogs against the Chargers. I gave them out as a plus seven winner, and I said, I'm playing them on the money line,

you should too, and they won that game outright. I mean, please, I'm hitting it 63% through the first seven weeks of the season. Don't play them if you're going to come at me like that. As I said today on radio, you're just as capable on your own of coming up with losers. I've got nine more smell test coming, smell test picks coming up a little bit later on in the show. The big news out of the game last night, which Kansas City won very easily, was the injury to Patrick Mahomes, the reigning NFL MVP. Injured in the second quarter on a quarterback sneak, he suffered a right-petelor kneecap dislocation. It could be more than he's having an MRI today, perhaps by the time you listen to this podcast, you'll know exactly

the severity of it. Right now, according to Schefter anyway, three weeks minimum, if it's just the dislocation, if it's ligament damage, he could be done for this season. And Kansas City fans, wow, what a blow to them. I mean, this is a franchise and a fan base that, first of all, is a great fan base. And they have been, so excited about the prospect of getting back into championship contention and winning a Super Bowl. And they were certainly one of the favorites this year to do it. They got so close last year in an AFC championship game that went to overtime against the Patriots. They haven't won a Super Bowl since Super Bowl 4 when they upset the Vikings with Hank Stram as the head coach and Len Dawson and Otis Taylor.

I was mentioning earlier this morning for those of you of a. certain age, you know what I'm talking about for those of you that are younger, understand this, that the AFL was the rival league to the NFL in the 60s, and it became a legit rival league to the NFL, in part because they signed stars like Joe Namath. And Joe Namath and the Jets in the Super Bowl era in Super Bowl 3 against the Colts in Miami. As a 19-point underdog, that is still considered to be one of the great upsets in the history of the NFL. Certainly one of the great upsets beyond that in the history of sports. And that was followed a year later by the chiefs an NFL team as like a 12, 13, 14 point underdog, something like that to the Minnesota Vikings

in Super Bowl 4. And the chiefs beat the Vikings 237. The Jets legitimized the AFL, which was already in the midst of merging, we're on the verge of merging, and the chiefs solidified that the NFL was just as good as the NFL, because you had two huge favorites in the Colts who were in the NFL back then. They moved to the AFC when the two leagues merged. They lost to the Jets, and then the following year, the Vikings lost to the Chiefs. And that's the last time the Chiefs participated in a Super Bowl. And Chiefs fans are the best, and this would be a major blow, not only to them, but to NFL fans in general. You know, when it comes to a particular player like Patrick Mahomes, NFL fans don't want to see

him get hurt. Now, it's a blow to the Chiefs, and it's a blow to the NFL to a certain degree. But of course, when it comes to the NFL, no blow is ever fatal. The league has lost plenty of its biggest stars to injury early in the season, mid-season, late season, and the league keeps printing money. No one stops watching when Tom Brady got hurt a few years ago. Nobody stopped. It will be interesting to see the Chiefs without him. They put Matt Moore in the game last night. Matt Moore is a veteran backup. He started a playoff game for the Dolphins a couple of years ago at Heinz Field against the Steelers and a blowout loss. And he's been around,

and he did all right last night in relief. They only have one other quarterback in their building and that guy's on the practice squad. You know, the Redskins and Andy Reed have done the quarterback thing before. Andy Reid dealt Donovan McNabb to the Redskins in 2010 and then Alex Smith to the Redskins last year. So maybe this time, maybe the Redskins can interest Mr. Reed in one of our quarterbacks, Colt McCoy or Case Keenham. Anyway, too bad for the Chiefs. Hopefully it's a three-week injury. There's not ligament damage, and he comes back. It will throw the AFC West Corbyn into a complete free-for-all. If he's out for the year, you know, for the year, you know, the division right now is already sort of disappointing because of the Chargers start. They were considered a legitimate contender this year, too. They're two and four. You know, all of their losses have been, you know, you. close losses. Rivers threw an interception into the end zone in Detroit in week two.

They lost 13 to 10. They had the big lead against the Texans out in L.A. and lost that game. They got upset by the Broncos. And then really last Sunday night, they got their ass kicked by the, by the Steelers. The final score was not really indicative of how one-sided that game was. So the Chargers are reeling. They get Tennessee this weekend, but they've got to have like new life, you know, in thinking that Mahomes could, even if it's a minimum of three weeks, they could make a move and be right back in the race here in the AFC West. And the Raiders are clearly the team that probably thinks they've got the best chance to make a run. They already lost to the Chiefs in week two.

They lost to the Chiefs at home in week two, 28 to 10. They beat the Bears in London two weeks ago. They get the Packers at Lambeau on Sunday and then the Texans next week. So it's not easy for the Raiders to sort of make a run here in the short term. but the AFC West without Mahomes is going to be, even though the Chargers and the Raiders, the two big contenders or the two teams of the three, the Broncos losing last night, and by the way, stop hitting me with Flacco stuff.

When I picked the Broncos, I was very clear. I thought they would be better on offense, but I picked the Broncos because they had a dominant defense last year, and I thought they would have a dominant defense this year. and their defense has improved. What is clearly an issue in Denver is right now they've got the worst offensive line in the NFL. That's obvious if you watched last night. And their inability to run the football against a team that was giving up 190 yards on the ground

in their last two games going in, their inability to run the football made it impossible. Flacco heard him last night, definitely. He wasn't very good. The lack of a running game crushed them last night. because the only way to really beat the Chiefs with Mahomes is to keep Mahomes off the field. And then in recent weeks, teams have been able to do that by running the football. And Philip Lindsay and Freeman, Freeman and Lindsay are pretty good backs. There was no room to run last night for Denver.

Against a team that was giving up massive yards on the ground coming in, Denver was able to rush for 3.3 yards per carry. Lindsay had 36 yards, Royce Freeman had 35. That was it on 21 carries. And then that allowed Kansas City to stay aggressive with eight in the box and blitzing, run, blitzing, pass blitzing on a lot of downs. They sacked Flacco nine times, or eight times, and I think they had the fake punt sack as well. And on six of them, he had no shot. No shot. By the way, it was the breakout game for the big offseason acquisition. for the Chiefs of Frank Clark. That was the breakout game for Frank Clark last night. Remember, they acquired him in the offseason from Seattle, big time pass rusher. He had only one sack going into the game last night. He got two of the teams nine last night.

Wanted to read a quick text from a friend of mine. A friend of mine who is a Redskins fan like I am, over the years, we've had many conversations, texts me a lot during the radio show, well, text me a lot at night about things that are on his mind, and I appreciate all of those texts. This one was interesting, though, because it got me thinking about something. He said, can you name Kevin another team that has ever been the punching bag that the Redskins have turned into this year?

Articles coming out all the time about what a terrible franchise it is. Kyle Shanahan, you know, basically laughing at him the other day. And then Troy Aitman, apparently last night on the broadcast, really got after the Redskins as well. And I've got the, I did not hear it live, but somebody sent it to me this morning, so I'm going to read it to you. Ben Standing actually put it out at some point last night. At one point, he and Joe Buck referenced the comments that Kyle Shanahan had. If you missed those earlier this week, Kyle Shanahan was asked about his time in Washington, what were the good memories, memories he said, working with my father and some of the other coaches.

And then he said, what were your bad memories? And he said, everything else. And apparently, you know, Aikman and Joe Buck had a laugh about that. But specific to the, here's the quote from Ben Standing. I'm sorry it took me so long to get it. Here it is. Aikman last night. I think Jay Gruden is a good coach. There's been a lot of dysfunction in Washington. It's a shame because our league is better when those types of franchises are competitive,

but it's been so long since that happened. And then again, with the Kyle Shanahan stuff, apparently he and Buck had a bit of a chuckle about it. But anyway, back to my friend Jim's text to me yesterday. Have you ever seen a team beat a punching bag that the Redskins are for everybody else in the league right now? And the answer to that is yes. You know, the Browns have been that kind of a punching bag. The Raiders have been in recent years that kind of a punching bag. We've seen that before in this league.

We've seen it in other sports. The Knicks right now for sure are a punching bag. In fact, really, the Knicks are the number one, the best comparison to the Redskins. A team with a storied past, with a championship pass. Now you've got to go much further back with the Knicks. You've got to go back to 73 for the Knicks. The Redskins, you go back to 91. But with a very, you know, loyal, passionate over the years fan base and a big brand.

You know, the Knicks are a big brand. And the Redskins have been a big brand in sports in the NFL. And they're both sort of in the same position. Terrible ownership has led to major, you know, losing and dysfunction. But yeah, the answer to my friend's question, is yes, there have been teams that have been the punching bag that the Redskins are this year. But here's the one thing I thought about when it comes to the Redskins situation that I think most of you out there understand.

When you hear people so readily, so easily, without reservation, without hesitation, ripping on the Redskins, you know, players, coaches, columnists, you know, when they do that so easily without resuscation, without reskins, you know, players, coaches, you know, when, when they do that so easily without really hesitating. It's usually an indication of something more than just the record. You know, we know that the Redskins have been a consistent, you know, loser. Now, not in the same way that the Browns were losing a couple of years ago. Jay was 35, 49, and one. You know, that's not a terrible record. The only terrible season he had was 20 and 14. By the way, they had back-to-back winning seasons in 2015 in 2016, 9 and 7 in 2015, 8, 7 and 1 in 2016.

For this place, for this franchise, that's an unbelievable run. It was the first time since 9697 that the skins had put together successive winning records. That's amazing. But that speaks to how low they've been. I get the point if somebody says, well, they haven't been horrible because they haven't been going 2 and 14 and 3 and 13 and 1 and 15, even though this year, certainly 3 and 13, 2 and 14, 1 and 15 is in play. But really, when you talk about the Redskins record, you're talking about an overall losing record by a lot, and you're talking about a team that's won one playoff game, one since 2005. They've only played in two playoff games in the last 11 years. That stinks.

But here's why they are an easy target and where people around the league rarely hold their tongues because it's more than the futility on the field. When people have no problem going public with the way they feel about a player or a team or an organization in business and sports, it's usually because they're not respected. and they're not well-liked. There are franchises that don't win, that people around the league hope will eventually win. There are franchises that don't win, that have good people in the organization, that others around the league hope that they will win and think that eventually they'll figure it out and win.

The Redskins aren't respected and they aren't well-liked. And that makes their record an easy way to get it. into the way people feel about them without really worrying about what they're saying. It's easy to disparage the Redskins because they don't respect them and they don't like them. That's a big part of this and I've said this many times in recent years. It's not just their record that has really made the fan base turn and run away in droves. It's the way they've lost, the off-putting way in which they behave. That's why they're not respected, and that's why they're not well-liked,

and that's why they are a major punching bag for just about everybody in sports right now, certainly in the league, without any hesitation in doing so. It makes it easy. People can take comfort also in the fact that almost everybody agrees with them. They're not out there criticizing something that's debatable. Anyway, that text made me think about it in that. way and thought I'd share that with everybody. All right. Look, the only way to shut everybody up is to win. Can they beat the 49ers? Probably not. But if they are to pull off the upset,

there are a few things that need to happen. Let's get to Redskins beat Niners if. All right. Redskins will beat the 49ers or will pull the big upset over the 49ers as a 10-point underdog. if they do the following things. Number one, they've got to improve on third downs, both offensively and defensively. The Skins' third down offense right now is 31st out of 32 teams, and the Skins' third down defense, which we know is bad and has been awful,

has actually improved. They're now to 31st in the league, up from dead last. You can't win NFL games if you can't stay on the field, when you're on offense and get teams off the field when you're on defense on third down. And on Sunday, by the way, it's not going to be easy. The 49ers, listen to this. They have held their last two opponents, the Browns and the Rams, to one for 20 on third down.

The 49ers are so good defensively. Both of those teams, Cleveland and Los Angeles, are better than the Redskins are offensively, and they combine to go one for 20 on third down in two games. All right, the Browns were 0 for 9, and I think the Rams were 1 for 11 on Sunday. That's unbelievable. By the way, the Browns could only hang three points on the Niners, and the Rams only scored 7.

They have to improve on third downs. They've got to get teams off the field, and they've got to stay on the field, or they've got no chance to win games. The Redskins will beat the Niners if somehow they can run the football. Because throwing it against San Francisco has been problematic, especially in the last two weeks. I want you to listen to some additional, incredible numbers, because I gave you the one for 20 on third down the last two weeks against the Niners' defense. How about this? Baker Mayfield two weeks ago finished with 100 yards passing.

100. Jared Gough last week for the Rams in a four-quarter football game through for 78 yards. Have you ever heard of numbers like that in this day and age? Jared Gough last week was 13 of 24 for 78 yards. Baker Mayfield the week before, eight for 22, for 100 yards. In this day and age, nobody throws for less than 100 yards. And by the way, in games in which your team is getting blown out, you always see at the end of that game, the losing quarterback

that lost 31 to 3 or 20 to 7, you always see that quarterback in the fourth quarter getting all those garbage yards. Easy yards against a prevent defense, pitching and catching it. Usually they'll end up with, you know, you'll see the losing quarterback in a 3110 game be 17 of 34 for 203 yards or something like that, and all of it came in the fourth quarter.

Gough and Mayfield couldn't even get those yards. The Niners also have eight sacks in the last two games. Throwing the football on Sunday probably ain't happening. Like the 49ers, if you watch the tape, and I've got the NFL game pass, I've told you that before, and I watch a lot of the upcoming opponents, I'll be honest with you this year, not as much as I have when the Redskins have had games that have mattered. Like it's more interesting if they've got a big game coming up, an important game coming up. But we were able to watch the 49ers on Monday night start to finish two weeks ago. They're super fast defensively. Really, really fast defensively.

It's amazing because we talk about something all the time, and that is how the NFL just changes not only weak, you know, not only year to year, but week to week. And we've seen that. You know, the Chiefs were dominant. Now they've lost two of their last three, even though last night looked better. But now they've lost the quarterback for a few weeks at minimum. Dallas was 3-0, and now they've lost three in a row to be 3-3-3-3.

You know, we talk all the time in August about the teams that weren't in the playoffs last year that are going to make a big move. It happens every year, and the 49ers were 4-12 last year. I know they were without Garapolo who got injured. but still they're 5-0 and their defense is dominant and they can run the football. They're a really good football team. The Redskins beat the Niners if somehow they can run the football because throwing it, it may be impossible. Running it, however, may not be impossible. If you look recently, the 49ers have been giving up some yards on the ground.

Now they've been giving up those yards on the ground against dynamic run offenses, like what Los Angeles does, what the Rams do. Lots of fly sweep action, lots of unique, you know, sort of trickery in the, and really, a lot of misdirection in the run game. The Redskins don't have a lot of that in their run game. I would think that they would be using Stephen Sims Jr. a little bit more on Sunday. Get him out on the field. By the way, just as an aside, I'd like to see him return punts. Why do we need Trey Quinn returning punts?

let's let Sims Jr. touch the ball and punt returns. He's actually got some game-breaking ability. Anyway, the 49ers are going to be difficult to move the football against, period. But running it against them may be the Redskins' best shot. Lastly, the Redskins beat the Niners if Jimmy Garoppolo helps out. The 49ers are across the board a better football team than they've been in years. but the weakness on this team so far may be the quarterback. Garoppolo's been just okay.

He's not great. You know, and he'll give it up a few times. Already through five games, he's got five picks, five interceptions in five games. He's fumbled four times, lost two of them in five games. He's got seven turnovers in five games. He's missed some big plays with inaccuracy. He's probably the weakness on this team right now.

The Redskins need a few turnovers to have a chance, and Garoppolo may give them a few chances to snag some balls. He's capable of giving it up. Now, in those situations, and you see it every week in the NFL, you'll see these quarterbacks that will occasionally give you a shot with an errant throw, I used to always say about Eli Manning, especially when he played teams in the division that knew him. He's going to put two or three up for grabs.

You have to catch them. you know, if you catch them, they can be total game changers. He's going to give you a shot for two picks minimum. And, you know, a lot of times what happens is defensively you get those opportunities, but a DB drops it. And it's a big difference in a game. Garoppolo is going to give the Redskins a chance on two or three balls Sunday. And if they can catch them, that means the Niners are off the field

and the Redskins, who knows, maybe they're already in scoring position. even if it's a field goal attempt. Got to make those plays. Lastly, the Redskins need those breaks, those fishy officiating calls. You know, the calls that seem to, you know, if you listen to them, they all go against the Redskins. They've whined about the officiating since week one.

But you know, you know those games where it's like a team has first and 10 from their own 35-yard line, good field position after a punt, and they get a nine-yard run on first down, or it's a 16-yard, you know, play-action throw, and there's a flag, and it's a holding, and then Fox goes to the replay, and whoever the analyst says,

eh, that's not much of a hold. You know, that's not much of a hands to the face. And you're like, yeah, we got one there. But it walks him back 10 yards, it's first and 20, and now they got a down-and-distance problem. And we know in this league, except for a few teams,

You know, like a Mahomes. It's really hard for most NFL teams to overcome first and 20. You need two or three of those on Sunday. You need a bomb to McLaurin where he's actually covered. It's incomplete. There was some contact, really, really minimal contact, and it gets flagged and you get a 57-yard play out of it. You have to get those to win games where you're 10-point underdogs.

That's hell they'll do it. Will they do it? I don't think so. I don't see the Redskins beating the Niners. I really don't. A quick word about my bookie.ag. All of you have asked me over the years, where do I bet? I don't have a guy.

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biggest and one of the best. If you go to MyBooky.ag today, you can use my promo code, Kevin, D.C. That's K-Ev-I-N-D-C, and they will double your first deposit. Again, go to mybooky.ag today. You play, you win, you get paid. Enter my promo code, Kevin, D.C. All right, we're going to get to the smell test here coming up shortly, and we'll do some more NFL quick picks as well.

A couple of things to get to. Number one, I talked yesterday, yesterday or the day before, where I predicted what the television ratings would be for the World Series here, that I think it had massive upside. And I do. And part of the reason I feel this way, and I wanted to emphasize this, I mentioned it yesterday in my conversation with Tommy,

but if the Yankees were the opponent, it had a chance to do massive numbers here locally because of all the New Yorkers that live here, first of all. So you're going to have that. Plus, it's the Yankees as the opponent. I don't think that the numbers have the same upside if they play the Astros, which it looks like. they're going to do now. As a quick aside, if you're a Nats fan, you really want to see the Yankees

win a game or two, obviously to force a seventh and deciding game, but you really want them to win tonight. You don't want the Astros to have basically most near full rest before Tuesday to get their pitching staff and their pitching rotation healthy and rested as well. but the Eric on on Twitter who is really good at following all this stuff had a bunch of numbers that I thought were interesting. He said game one of the 2018 World Series in Boston got a 35 rating. In L.A. it got a 24.8. And he made the point that Washington's a lot closer to L.A. than to Boston. And as far as the Sportstown goes, in fact, L.A. isn't a bad comparison.

Both cities have lots of transients. That's probably true. You know, man, I'm actually surprised that with the Dodgers, it got a 24.8 and it didn't do better. But I think that games one and two, as I mentioned, are TV ratings in the mid-20s, which, by the way, would be phenomenal in this town to see somebody other than the Redskins get a local television rating in the mid-20s. The Caps, as I mentioned, did a 25-plus for their Stanley Cup. Game 5 closeout of Las Vegas in 2018, but that was pretty much double any number they had ever done before. Like the game 7 against Tampa did a 12.6. The Natt's biggest rating locally was a 16.7

against the Cardinals in 2012 in a fifth and deciding game. So I do think games one and two will be into the mid-20s. I do think that that makes a lot of sense here. I just think that if you get to a game six or game seven, it will be such a massive event in this town. And it's not really competing with anything big because right now the NFL season isn't that big of a deal here anyway. And I think it has a chance to do something in the 30s. I do. I wanted to mention real quickly the Bradley Beal deal in a little bit more detail than we discussed it yesterday. because I two things on this one you know I think it really is something that Bradley Beal should be

congratulated for and appreciated for you know he was very critical of Kevin Durant when Durant left Oklahoma City and went to Golden State so it would have been a little bit hypocritical if Beale took off for somewhere else you know the situations are a little bit different. This is not a, you know, a competitive situation in Washington. Oklahoma City was. You know, they'd been to the NBA finals. So if Beal did leave, I don't think anybody would blame him if he decided to get to free agency. But I love it when an athlete essentially says, I love it here. I love Washington. You know, we talked about this the last couple of days, you know, with Howie Kendrick saying how much he loves this city. This is my home.

hometown, so I am obviously not biased when, you know, I'm not objective, excuse me, when it comes to this. I am biased. I love this city, and it's a much better city than it's ever been, and I hate the fact that NBA free agents don't seem to want to come here. So it's really, it's pleasing that a guy like Bradley Beale, who's not an elite star, he's a really good player that would have commanded a massive deal on the open market. I love it that he wants to stay here. It makes me happy that he wants to stay here, and I appreciate that he wants to stay here,

and I think that he deserves a lot of credit for staying here. Now, with that said, if the Wizards don't get a 50-win season, a top-four seed out of Beal's contract with Beal here, with hopefully Wall coming back, We now know what the back court of the future is. It's $70 million invested in Wall and Beal in 2020 and 2021. That's it.

We've seen this before. We know what they are. We know what their limitations are. We don't even know what Wall's going to look like when it comes back. But this deal for the Wizards needs to produce a 50-win season and a deep into the postseason run, not once, but at least twice before the end of this deal. It's not going to happen this year. We know that.

Could it happen in 2020, 2020, 2021? Well, Wall will be back for that year. And they'll have guys like Maheemee off contract, his deal's done after this year. You know, they're going to have a chance to go out and get something else potentially. But they're really going to need Rui Hachamura, their first round pick from last year and a guy like Troy Brown Jr. who they picked in the first round to really make major steps forward here over the next two years. I'm a big Mo Wagner fan. I think he can play. They acquired him, remember, from the Lakers in a trade this summer. I think Wagner can play.

Who's going to be around Beel and Wall? What's the team look like? Where is the team that's going to win 50 games? That's what's next for Tommy Shepard and for Ted Lianz's. You know, I understand there's a lot of back slapping over getting Beal to sign an extension, but if they don't back this up with 50 win seasons and deep into the postseason contention, then this was the wrong move. They should have started over from scratch because Beal is not elite. He's not the guy that's going to make the difference between 50 wins and 30 wins. He's a great second piece.

he's a very good NBA score. He'd really be perfect as the third piece, but he is a solid second piece. Don't get me wrong. But you're not going to contend with Bradley Beale as your number one guy. And I'm really happy that he is getting paid and that he wants to stay here. I appreciate all that. For the team, it's a lot of money. It's a massive commitment.

And it has to pay off in the standings and in the post-season. for it to be worth it. I'm skeptical that it will. All right, let's get to the smell test. Kevin looks where the John Q public is putting their cash and does the opposite. It's time for the smell test. All right, Denver didn't work last night, but scared money don't make money. Got to stay in it, brother.

Stay in the fight. Hashtag stay in the fight. Go Nats. Smell test was 8 and 9 last week, first losing week since week one, I think. after the Denver debacle last night, 49, 30, and one overall on the season. My philosophy, handicapping philosophy, if you're new to this, is that Vegas never messes up. If there's an odd-looking point spread and the average better thinks it's an opportunity

because they view the point spread as Vegas has messed up, my philosophy is Vegas, they don't mess up. All right, hence the average better is usually wrong, and I go the other way when the average better is convinced that Vegas is messed up. I go against the average guy. I go against the average Joe. By the way, real quickly, I did want to read a quick tweet that I got from somebody. We're going to start the segment over again. Sorry. Start the whole thing over again. I forgot. There's something I wanted to read. Would you say?

Yeah, yeah. Yeah. You're just going to do the intro to the smell test and start this segment all over again. Kevin looks where the John Q public is putting their cash and does the opposite. It's time for the smell test. All right. Already mentioned all of the criticism I took on Twitter last night for the Denver pick. Yeah, I gave out the Broncos plus the three and it didn't work out.

Sorry about that. I'm only 49, 30, and one now overall on the season. By the way, I wanted to read a tweet from Skins Weekly on Twitter. This really actually made me smile and laugh simultaneously. He tweeted to me, Kevin, my dad was a professional sports handicapper in the 80s and 90s and made hundreds of thousands of dollars using pretty much your system. He'd always laugh when a customer would call after a loss screaming and ranting. He used to ask if it was their first bet.

And then he continued, I'll just point out that you are giving these picks at 63% away. He's implying that I'm not charging for him. No, I'm not charging for him. He said, growing up with what my dad did, he always said, never think you can actually win at this. But when he hit 56 to 58%, we had the best vacations, got an in-the-ground pool, and other shit.

Anyone pissed over one loss is a moron. And then he continued. Last thing. My dad would have loved the guys who got all pissed because those were the ones who actually believed you could beat the house long term. They were the ones who paid the most for the five-star lock of the year. And then with an emoji, a laughing emoji with tears coming out of his eyes, they were the marks.

Oh, God, that's so true. And you know why I know that that's so true? because I was a mark for so long when I was younger. Do you know how many times my friends and I in college, we would get these calls or we would get things in the mail? You know, they didn't come via email back then or text or on social media with, hey, this is underdog, a service out in Las Vegas, my five-star October lock of the month.

It'll cost you 50 bucks, but it's a good. guaranteed lock, it's hit at 89% over the last 10 years. There was this service called Consensus that we used to use, my friends and I. We paid big money. We'd pull all our money together, pay for it, and they didn't know anything more than we knew. So I know what I'm doing because I was on the side of losing over and over again until I learned. It was a school of hard knock situation. And what I learned is that you don't win gambling long term.

This is what's so frustrating to me about Ted Leonis in his, you know, his push to promote gambling as a way to beat the house. Like all these smart AOL guys with all of their data and analytics are somehow going to bring the MGM to its knees. Mr. Wynn is going to close down all of his hotels because all the smart guys with their data and their analytics are going to win. No, you're not going to win. This needs to be for fun, for entertainment purposes.

Understand that. If you bet, if you gamble, long term, you will lose. The only thing that I've learned over the years, and that's what I try to give away every week for free, is an understanding that when the dummies out there are convinced that Vegas has messed up a point spread, I know from a long history of being one of those dopes, they don't mess up point spreads. You haven't found value. You haven't found, oh my God, they mess this up.

Let's pull our money together and we can win a million dollars this week. keep doing that you'll be with a lot of other people on the streets of Seattle and Portland San Francisco and all of those cities that have downtown problems thank God our city doesn't have some of those issues it does

we've got some of those issues not at the same level that some of those cities out west have all right here's the smell test for the week by the way again for those that are new to it it's a system that I use and have used for, I don't know, 25 years now. Maybe it was 25 years ago.

I started to smarten up a little bit and realize that these games weren't like locks when I saw a line that didn't make sense. I look for odd-looking point spreads that the dopey better out there thinks is wrong. Like they think they're wrong. And they think Vegas just messed up a point spread. they are going to unload on the side that looks right to them. And what I've done in those situations is I've just gone the other way. I've said, you know what, my bookie, all the sports books in Vegas, all the guys I know

offshore personally, I've gotten to know. Some of you have asked me how I got to know some of these people. There was a several year period where I was considered to be a very sharp college basketball all better. And that's how I got to know a lot of those guys. Um, and by the way, I didn't want them to know who I was. But ultimately it worked out for the purposes of this show that I know who they are, because they give me a lot of information that helps me with the smell test pick. Because with the smell test, because lots of times I'll have a bunch of picks and I'm like, this looks right, this looks right, this looks right, this looks right. And then for final confirmation, I check

with some of my boys offshore and I'll be like, am I right on this one? And they'll be like 100%. We're going to need that side, and there's no way we can lay off the action. That's the smart side. And oh, by the way, you've got some other sharp money on that side. All right, let's get to the picks. By the way, there are a lot of favorites this week that I like again. I hate when I like favorites.

I like underdogs because the public usually prefers favorites. And they usually prefer favorites because the favorites are usually the perceived better teams. I've got some favorites this week, and I'm going to start with them. No games tonight, by the way, a few on Saturday. Oklahoma is a 33-point favorite over West Virginia in Norman. That's a lot of points. Against a West Virginia team, by the way, that hung in there last week with Iowa State for a while. Iowa State was a smell test pick last week.

They got it done. Two weeks ago, they were a 10.5 point dog to Texas lost by 11. I just don't see where Oklahoma goes from what I would think. would be the right line, which would be like 24, 25, you know, maybe four touchdowns to 33. The public is actually on West Virginia. They think that the line's way too high. I'll take Oklahoma and lay the 33. There's another big favorite this week. Iowa is a 17-point favorite at home against Purdue, the team that crushed Maryland last week as an underdog. Iowa's defense is really good. I mean, they really knocked Penn State around last week. I think Purdue is going to really

struggle to score tomorrow. Like maybe they score seven or ten, and Iowa can get 28 plus. I like Iowa minus the 17. The public likes Purdue in this game. They think it's a number that's too big. There's another big favorite late Saturday. 14th ranked Utah is laying 13th and a half to 17th ranked Arizona State. The Sun Devils beat Washington State last week. They're a surprise team this year. Utah's defense is excellent. I think Utah is going to kick the living crap out of Arizona State. They are an anti-public favorite. Again, I don't love favorites. I do like Utah a lot tomorrow, laying the 13 and a half. All right, I do have some underdogs on Saturday. South Carolina is getting five at home against Florida. Florida lost to LSU in what was really a spectacular game in Death Valley on Saturday night.

South Carolina pulled off the huge upset against Georgia in Athens, the number three team in the country. Florida's really good. They were missing their two best defensive players last week. That really hurt their effort defensively against LSU. I think one of those two players is still out for tomorrow's game against South Carolina. I still think Florida should be like a seven-point favorite and they're only a five-point favorite. The public likes the favorite in this game, the Gators, especially. with how well they played last week against LSU, I'll take South Carolina plus the five.

Mississippi State's getting 17 and a half at home against LSU. Nobody thinks Mississippi State has a chance to win this game, and very few think they've got a chance to keep it close. They lost at Tennessee last week. The Valls were a smell test pick last week plus seven at home against Mississippi State. They won the game outright. LSU's coming off that emotional win last Saturday night in Death Valley over Florida. It was a really impressive win. They've been rolling along.

It won't surprise me if they're not up for this game, and they win it like 38 to 24, something like that. I'll take Mississippi State in the 17-5. One more game on Saturday. You know, the University of Washington was one of those teams that some people had in the playoff before the season started. They were a Pac-12 favorite. They've lost twice already in the Pac-12.

They lost to Cal, they lost to Stanford, and Oregon's been rolling along since their season opening loss to Auburn. I'm not sure why Oregon is only a three-point favorite in Seattle on Saturday. The public's on Oregon, I'll take the Huskies plus the three in that one. Let's go to Sunday, where Buffalo is laying 17 to Miami. Buffalo is a 17-point favorite. Let that sink in. Now, they haven't been a 17-point favorite since the Jim Kelly, you know, Thurman Thomas, Andre Reid days.

No chance, right? It's been since the mid-to-late 90s since Buffalo's been maybe even a double-digit favorite against anybody, let alone a 17-point favorite. By the way, consider this. Buffalo is a 17-point favorite over Miami off of Miami's most impressive game of the year, nearly beating the Redskins last week. The Redskins opened up as a three and a half point favorite over Miami. Now, they closed at like five and a half, but still, that tells you what Vegas thinks of the Redskins.

The fact that Buffalo is a 17 point favorite, I know it's in Buffalo, and Miami was playing at home last week, but still, the Redskins opened at three and a half, Buffalo opened at 17, and there are 17 point favorites still. It's a lot of points. The public actually thinks the Dolphins, you know, showed some fight last week, and they're taking the underdog. I don't think Miami scores more than seven against Buffalo's defense. I'll take Buffalo and lay the 17 points.

I think the Rams are in trouble Sunday in Atlanta. The Falcons can score, but they are one in five. The Rams, something ain't right out there right now. Something's not right with them. They, Jared Goff doesn't look good. Offensively, they don't look good. You know, they lost a very competitive game at Seattle in that Thursday night game. Then they had that long layoff to get ready for the 49ers and laid an egg at home.

Sort of home. San Francisco came in and took over that stadium. They've lost three games in a row. They've lost three in a row in this season so far. And they've got the Falcons on the road. West Coast going east coast. And the past has been an issue. Not this year.

I like Atlanta. And Atlanta's ability to score. I'm going to take the Falcons plus the three. The public believes the Rams will bounce back with an impressive win on Sunday. There are some similarities, by the way, between the Rams and the Broncos last night. You know, the Rams and the Chiefs, I'm sorry. The Chiefs laying three on the road to Denver, having lost, you know, a couple of games, and everybody thinking, oh, they're too good to lose again.

They're going to win. They're going to bounce back. And it didn't work out for me last night, taking Denver. So keep that in mind. I don't think the Rams are nearly as good as the Chiefs, and something's not right there. And Atlanta, by the way, is much more capable offensively than Denver was last night. Lastly, I like the Bears laying three at home against the Saints.

The Saints are really good on defense, and they have really survived no Drew Breeze. Teddy Bridgewater's been fine, but it's really been their defense in special teams more than anything else. I think the Bears are really good on defense too. And I think that they're a good team and they'll be a good team at home on Sunday. They've had the buy week coming off that devastating loss in London to the Raiders, a game where they rallied back, took the lead, and then lost the lead in the game at the end.

The public likes the Saints this week, catching a short number. I'm surprised at that. But there's some sharp money on the Bears, and that's where my money will be on Sunday. I like Chicago minus the three. I do have a couple of liens, just FYI. I actually would lean Redskins. I didn't give them out, but nobody's playing the Redskins.

I'm surprised the number's not up to 11 or 12 at this point. The number's actually been fluctuating between 9.5 and 10. If you told me I had to play the Redskin game, I would actually take the points and play the Redskins. I also would lean Bengals and Cowboys. on Sunday and maybe even the Cardinals a little bit, but those are not official plays. The official plays are this weekend smell test. Oklahoma minus 33, Iowa minus 17, Utah minus 13 and a half, South Carolina plus five, Mississippi

State plus 17 and a half, and Washington, the University of Washington, plus three. Then I like on Sunday the bills minus 17, the Falcons plus three, and the Bears minus three. This is for entertainment purposes primarily for some of you. For those of you that can't take the ups and downs of losing money, winning money, losing money, don't wager. If you can't do it in moderation and have fun with it, don't do it. That's the best advice you'll ever get. Much better advice than the actual games I gave you, which pretty much are coin flips. Although this year, it's been more than a coin flip. It's been hitting at about 62 and a half, 63% so far.

All right, we'll get to some NFL talk Friday Football QuickPicks, some of the other liens in the NFL, some of the games that I'm interested in watching this weekend, but did want to mention that we have an app now. So if you're interested in downloading our app, it'll include my Twitter information, my tweets, our Facebook stuff. And it's just another easy way to listen to the show.

So the app's available in the app store on your iPhone. And certainly if you've got an Android, it's available in the Google store as well. So download our app. And also let me know what you think of it. That would be helpful. If you like it, review it, rate it, give it five stars. That'll help us a lot. But just wanted to let you know that there's another way to listen to the show.

And it is with our new app. So we're excited about that. as well. All right, let's get to some Friday Football Quick Picks to end the show. Everything you need to know for your football weekend. It's Friday Football Quick Picks. All right. The teams, the best games of the weekend, let me start with that. Saturday, there's really one massive game. It's Michigan at Penn State, the game I will be at on Saturday night. And looking forward to it, Penn State's undefeated. They're ranked seventh in the country. their quarterback Clifford starting this year for the first time has played better than most people thought he would play.

They've got a good defense, and then there's the Michigan story and the Michigan part of this. Michigan with Jim Harbaugh seemed to be in a season and maybe a season that will end the Harbaugh era in Michigan in Ann Arbor. But then again, they still have an opportunity to turn it around because they have Penn State, Notre Dame, Michigan State and Ohio State still left on their schedule. You know, so they can turn it around. They have talent. I think they really struggle, though, offensively and schematically. You know, they got out last week to a 28-0-0 lead at Illinois,

and then Illinois scored 25 unanswered, and they couldn't do anything offensively with the ball after that. They're having a difficult time throwing the football. Shea Patterson is not what they had hoped he would be last year when he transferred into Michigan. Penn State's a big favorite. I like them tomorrow night. I've mentioned this before that the number one place for me, college football-wise, is Death Valley.

Best place I've ever been to to see a college football game. Penn State's really good, though. State College is really, really good. We were there last year for the Ohio State game, and tomorrow night is the biggest home game of the year for Penn State. It's a great atmosphere. It'll be a great environment. And Penn State's got a chance.

They got a chance to get it to seven. and O. And then they've got Michigan State on the road, Minnesota on the road. Minnesota's ranked and undefeated. And they do have Ohio State on the road in late November. So this is their last big home game. They got three tough road games still left to go. They got some talent, though, on that roster. Noah Kane really has turned into a good back. And KJ. Hamler, man, one of the best wide receivers in the country. speed, elusive, vision, impossible to catch. I mean, he's a guy that you can't touch in a phone booth. He is that quick and that elusive. Looking forward to seeing Penn State tomorrow night against Michigan in state college. The other games of the weekend that are really good games

are really in the NFL. You start with like all of the NFC North teams. The Packers have a big game at 5-1 at home against the Raiders. By the way, the Packers did not deserve. to win that game on Monday night. There were two terrible penalties that went against Detroit. Detroit also settled for five field goals, which was unfortunate. It was a loseable game for Green Bay. They are home as a five-and-one team against the Raiders now, who are going to be all excited about the opportunity potentially in the AFC West without Mahomes. Then you've got Vikings at Lions, and the Vikings all the sudden, you know, since basically the pressure from Thieland and Diggs to change the play call.

and change the offensive philosophy. Now they've busted out in two weeks with a lethal air game. But consider that they played the Giants and the Eagles, and the Eagles were banged up in their secondary. Detroit's really good defensively. That's a tough game for Minnesota. They're a two-point favorite in Detroit.

And then the Bears hosting the Saints. That NFC North right now, to me, top to bottom is the best division in football. You don't have one team that isn't, you know, a legitimate right now playoff contender in the NFC. Now the NFC West is pretty good too because Arizona is obviously better

than we thought after the first couple of weeks. You know, Kyler Murray all of a sudden is really getting it going through the air, that offense with Cliff Kingsbury, starting to really, you know, get into some rhythm. They're looking like a much more difficult out and they already have the 49ers and Seahawks and Rams in the division.

The other games in the NFL, this weekend that are interesting. Certainly Dallas, Philadelphia, and the NFC East. The winner goes to four and three. The loser is at three and four. The losers, the Cowboys. That's four straight losses. The teams I'm most interested in watching this weekend. There are two of them. Both of them in the NFC West. The 49ers, we're going to get a chance to see up close for the entire 60 minutes. How good are they? I think they're really good on defense. I don't think Garapolo's that good, though. So that will be a limiting factor for them moving forward, how deep they can go in the postseason. And then the Rams are the other team.

You know, they've taken a big step back this year. Like, what's the deal with the Rams? If they do go and lose to Atlanta, which I've got Atlanta in the smell test, they're all of a sudden three and four as the reigning NFC champions. You know, before the year started, I said one of the two teams that were, I said one of the four teams that were in the championship games last year wouldn't make the playoffs. And I thought the Rams and the Saints were both teams that might miss out.

And I think I predicted the Saints wouldn't make the playoffs, but the Rams would barely make it as a wild card with Seattle winning the division. Rams are in some big trouble if they don't win Sunday. And if they don't win, it's more than not winning and having a four-game losing streak. You'll then wonder, like, what's going on there? Like the girly issue, you know, they trade for Jay. and Ramsey, they gave up a lot for Ramsey. Do you know that they now are in jeopardy of not having a first round pick for five consecutive seasons going back to 2017? So it would be 17, 18, 19,

21. Trated two first round picks for Ramsey. Those are teams I'm interested in checking out this weekend. Teams on upset alert, I've already sort of referred to them. Oregon, Saturday, at Washington and I think the Rams in Atlanta against the Falcons. And a key player to watch this weekend, to me is Dak Prescott. The Cowboys started off 3-0. It's not his fault that they've lost three in a row, but he has not elevated them. You know, he has not overcome some of the issues they've had on defense. They didn't score much against New Orleans in the loss.

They turned it over, not all his fault, against the Packers that got him behind. and then against the Jets, they needed more offense from that team in the first half when they were falling behind 21 to 3. He and the Cowboys are really on the spot, I think even more so than the Eagles, don't you? Like the Eagles are 3 and 3 also. But I don't know, I feel like the Cowboys, you know, with Jason Garrett and Dak Prescott, you know, the contract, the whole thing. This was supposed to be a year that they really made a legit run.

And if they lose this game, they're three and four, four game losing streak. They still have games against the Vikings, the Lions and Patriots and Bears on the road, late season games at Philly, the Rams at home. They still have to play the bills. The bills they play on Thanksgiving Day. You know, the Thanksgiving schedule when it came out last year, I remember thinking that the games themselves, like it was Bears Lions, okay, Bill's Cowboys, Ugh, and then Saints Falcons in the Thursday night Thanksgiving Day game,

which you thought might be a good game. Bill's Cowboys looking like a really, really good late afternoon game on Thanksgiving Day. The Bills, the Bills have a legit defense. legit defense. All right, quickly, the NFL games that I did not give out in terms of smell test, I'll rip through them real quickly just to give you sort of a slight lean. Like I already told you, I would give it. I personally may play the Bengals plus four, like them a little bit.

I'd lean Raiders plus five and a half at Lambo. I don't think I'll play that game. The Colts are laying a point over Houston. They almost were a smell test pick. They were almost a lean. I think I'm going to give them a look on Sunday. Houston's on a roll. They're a good team.

But the Colts have been pretty competitive and their favorite at home. The Cardinals at the Giants, I'd lean Cardinals. I'd lean Redskins at home against the Niners. I know that's painful. Boy, that Vikings Lions game is a big game in the NFC North. By the way, the Redskins and Vikings play next Thursday. That's the Thursday night game. Redskins at Vikings.

Kirk Cousins against the skins. I'll tell you a really good game is Seattle hosting Baltimore late Sunday. I forgot to mention that in the games of the week. That was a mistake on my part. I like Seattle. I just like their team right now. Russell Wilson right now headed towards maybe an MVP. The Titans off of a shutout loss are favored over the Chargers.

I think Tennessee's defense is really good. I'd probably give a slight lean to Tennessee in that one. And then I've already mentioned, I'd actually slightly lean in the direction. of the Cowboys in the Sunday night game. Monday night we can save for Monday. So the smell test picks on the NFL I didn't mention there, as I mentioned early, are the Bears, the Bills, and the Falcons. All right.

Redskins, 49ers on Sunday. I would say it's like, I think I said this on radio this morning, and I didn't even think about it when I said it. 19 to 11. That's what the final score of their game in 2011 at FedEx Field was. That was the Roy Hulu where they checked the ball down to him 14 times. John Beck did, and he set the record for the most catches in a game for Redskin at 14. I don't see the Redskins having a chance to win this game.

It's a 19 to 3 game late, and they get a touchdown late, and they go for two, and they make it somehow, and it ends up 19 to 11. That's what I'm going to give out, 19 to 11. You know, I think we are getting to the point, we're nearing that point where the Redskins are going to be in more of a reality mode. I don't think they are there right now. I believe they think they can turn their whole season around with a win against the 49ers. I think they're very, very chesty after their win over the dolphins, believe it or not. I know that that's amazing to even think about that they actually felt really good.

And look, you should feel good after your first win of the year. but the dolphins essentially handed it to them. And it's the dolphins. I mean, you beat the dolphins by a point. It was a nearly catastrophic, one of the more embarrassing franchise losses of all time. They nearly suffered that. Had Miami actually made an effort,

a legitimate effort to win the game after they scored that touchdown. They should have kicked the extra point gone to overtime. They would have had the advantage if they had done that. I think they lose Sunday, you know, and then lose to minutes. Minnesota, and at that point, they're one and seven, and you get 11 days before the game at Buffalo,

and that could be an opportunity for Dwayne Haskins to play. He got first team reps this week, and that's a positive sign for them. The Redskins are certainly trying to become a run-first team, more than they've ever been with Bill Callahan. They signed a fullback this week that could be playing on Sunday. I know that, you know, the bills are very good defensively, and it would be a tough road environment for his first start. I don't give a crap. I want him to experience all that the NFL has to offer. I've heard people say that, well, he can't start against the jets after the byweek because Greg Williams will destroy a rookie quarterback. Why not let him be exposed to Greg Williams? I mean, what are you going to do? They're playing great defensive teams

the rest of the way. Seriously, look at the games on their schedule. The 49ers are great defensively. Minnesota's really good defensively. Buffalo may be elite defensively. The Jets are pretty good defensively. The Lions, Panthers, Packers, all good defensive teams. And then their final three games of the year are the Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys. And the Eagles and Cowboys, more likely than not, are going to be desperate to win, you know, to get a playoff spot. And, you know, I wouldn't call the three of those teams right now elite defensive teams or even really good defensive teams, but they're all capable defensive teams, the Eagles and the Cowboys,

that is. I mean, what do you want to do? Just wait till the giant game and start them then? Unbelievable. All right, that's it. Enjoy the weekend. Cooley was going to join us today. Couldn't, so we'll get to him early next week. Have a great weekend

back on Monday.