The Kevin Sheehan Show - Redskins Rookies Ranked #1

Episode Date: January 24, 2020

Kevin opened with Peyton Manning making the HOF case for his brother Eli. He talked about Pro Football Focus' ranking the Redskins' 2019 draft class #1 in the NFL. Scott Jackson (Team980) jumped on to talk Bradley Beal's strange All-Star vote count and some college hoops too. Erich Zimney(VP Race & Sportsbook Hollywood Casino) was a guest talking Super Bowl odds, props, etc. <p> </p><p>Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices">podcastchoices.com/adchoices</a></p> Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You want it. You need it. It's what everyone's talking about. The Kevin Sheehan Show. Now here's Kevin. I'm here. Aaron's here. Scott Jackson's going to be on the show today for 10, 15 minutes. We'll talk some basketball, Bradley Beale stuff with him. Eric Zimney, who is the VP of Racing and Sportsbook at Charlestown, the Hollywood Casino, Charlestown. Actually, he's the VP of their sports book, casino, all the casinos that. they own throughout the country. He's going to be with us as well. We'll start talking about the Super Bowl point spread, the totals, prop bets, a lot of gambling stuff with him. Actually, Eric's a really, really sharp guy, good guy to have on. So we'll do that as well. I wanted to start with something that I listened to and watched late last night. And it was Peyton Manning on Denverbroncos.com, Aaron, talking about his brother Eli. Now, I'm going to play for you one part of that where Peyton sort of makes the case for his brother to be in the Hall of Fame.

But I would urge all of you, because I'm not going to play the whole thing, it's about 20 minutes long. But if you have time this weekend and you've got 15, 20 minutes to burn, go to Denver Broncos.com and just watch Peyton Manning talk about his younger brother, Eli. I found it to be so interesting because he, you know, he, you know, and he, you know, he, you know, He's in awe of his brother. He respects his younger brother, Eli, so much as a football player, as much as a person, but as a football player. And he talks about him in a way that almost leads me to believe that he thinks he wasn't nearly as good as Eli at being cool, calm, and collected, which is what he mentions throughout.

He's like every big pressure moment Eli had the demeanor, the personality to deliver when the game was on the line the most. And it was actually really cool to hear Peyton Manning. He gets, you know, it's not that he gets emotional, but he gets very animated at times in talking about his younger brother. And we know that we know the Mannings. They're the first family of football. And we've seen Peyton and Eli in various, you know, ESPN promotion, you know, promotional spots, etc. But he's the big brother. Eli's the youngest.

And I just found it really interesting to listen to Peyton talk about Eli. But this is the one cut that I wanted to play for everybody. He was asked as part of that interview about Eli Manning's Hall of Fame worthiness. Here's what Peyton Manning said. I certainly have my strong feelings and opinions on it that when you're the Super Bowl MVP twice, against the greatest dynasty of all time, the New England Patriots, Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, and you join a list that includes Terry Bradshaw, Bartstar, Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Elon Manning is the only Super Bowl MVP.

That kind of, I don't really know what that term drop the mic is, but I guess if there was one, I had a, maybe, you know, there really is no yeah but after that. That kind of ends it. But if you want a yeah, but, yeah, but he also started 220 plus consecutive games. He, you know, sixth or seventh all time in touchdowns. I mean, it wasn't like he just played those two seasons. I mean, he also, you know, just answered the bell, you know, played his butt off, won some huge games for his team.

And so I have strong opinions on it, but kind of per, I'm going to pull in Eli, I'm going to kind of live in the present right now and not to look back a little bit, if you will, and not look too far ahead and not get too worried about it. Telling you, it's worth the 15 to 20 minutes however long it was to watch. I just found it, I don't know, there's something about the Mannings in particular that's very interesting. And, boy, he talks about that Super Bowl win over the 2007 Patriots in particular as one of the more impressive feats of all times. and he said that team was unbeatable. That's a monster team of all time. That was obviously the team that went 16 and 0 in the regular season and was 18 and O heading into the Super Bowl. And Eli, you know, engineered that last drive, which ended with the touchdown pass to Plaxgo Burris for the go-ahead touchdown.

The giant defense was awesome, you know, in both of those winning Super Bowls. But, you know, I mentioned this yesterday with Tommy. you know, Eli Manning played big in those, you know, you can say it's just two post seasons. And you heard Peyton talk about, you know, top 10, top seven, whatever is, yardage, touchdowns, the whole thing. This guy had a pretty robust career. And to hang it just on a 500 overall winning record and only two postseason runs, I think that's a little bit shaky. I personally think that Eli Manning is going to be in the Hall of Fame. as we talked about yesterday. And I think while it's debatable, I think I would, if I were a Hall of Fame voting member,

I think I probably would vote for Eli. One of the reasons, and Peyton goes into this, is just how big he played in the playoff games that led to the Super Bowl. You know, Eli, on the road in those two Super Bowl winning seasons, had to win a combined five playoff games away from the Meadowlands. In 2007, it was January of 2008 at that point. they went on the road and they beat Tampa. And then on the road against the Cowboys, the Cowboys were the number one seed that year.

That's the game where Romo throws an interception at the end of the game. And Eli wasn't phenomenal in the game. He was 12 of 18 for 163 yards. Two touchdowns, no picks. You know, no mistakes in that game. And some big-time drives, including a fourth quarter drive to give them the lead, 2117. And then this is something else that Peyton talked about, was winning at Lambo in that. in that frigid game where Tom Coughlin's face, remember, is freezing.

You know, and you got icicles hanging off from his eyes and his nose. And Eli goes into Lambo, and the NFC title game is an eight-point underdog and is a big part of winning that game. You know, they beat Brett Farve and the Packers. Now, it was Farve's interception and overtime that set up the game-winning field goal from Lawrence Times. But the Giants had driven into field goal range, and he missed a field goal at the end of regulation that would have won it.

And then you got the 2011 season in the January 2012 playoffs. He goes to Lambo and crushes the Packers again, crushes Aaron Rogers in the Packers 37 to 20. In a game where he throws for 3.30 and three touchdowns at Lambo, I mean, that's not an easy place to win in the postseason and then beats the 49ers. is they get a big drive late and then in overtime, they had the fumbled punt that set up the game winner, and then they beat the Patriots again. I just, trust me on this.

If you got 20 minutes, watch Peyton Manning. It's available on Denver Broncos.com. I just found it to be Peyton sort of out of character in the way we think about him. You know, he was really, really very persuasive, but more importantly, I can't. came away thinking, wow, he really, in many ways, is in awe of Eli, his younger brother, and the difference between the two. And that was Eli was this guy that under pressure delivered consistently

in the big spots. And, you know, perhaps the reason Peyton feels that way is that Peyton, as a quarterback in the NFL, very often, at home, as a number one seed in the postseason, didn't get through. You know, Peyton Manning before that last year in Denver, where, you know, Von Miller and company really won that Super Bowl for them and took them through that postseason. Peyton was, you know, was a contributor, but certainly wasn't the Peyton Manning of old. Those three wins in the 2016 postseason were what gave Peyton Manning a winning playoff record. Eli's 8 and 4 all time in the postseason. Peyton was 11 and 13 heading into that 2016 postseason following the 2015 season.

And they won three playoff games over Pittsburgh, New England, 20 to 18. Remember, they missed an extra point, went for two and missed it there at the end. And then over Carolina, 24 to 10 in the Super Bowl. And that's what gave Peyton Manning as a starter a winning record in the postseason. He had a losing record heading into that with many, many home losses as a higher-seeded team. In some of those games, he played well. And in some of those games, to be fair, they didn't have a great defense. But, yeah, I sort of got the sense of watching that Peyton, you know,

one of the things he really admired about his younger brother was how clutch he was. How he, in the personality that he had, where nothing rattled him, nothing bothered him. And he sort of credits that as the reason that Eli performed well. in some of the biggest games that the Giants had during the course of his career. Anyway, I thought that was interesting. We'll get to Scott Jackson and talk some Wizards and Bradley Beale not being voted on the All-Star team here in a moment. Two things, though, sort of Redskins-related.

First of all, pro-football focus ranked the NFL's most productive 2019 rookie classes from number one to number 32. So they took last year's draft, the rookie classes for all 32 teams, and ranked them. And the Redskins came in at number one. Number one overall. Pro Football Focus wrote, The Redskins got average quarterback play from Dwayne Haskins

after he took over as the starter in week nine and an outstanding performance from third-round receiver, Terry McLaurin. Play like that from two of the most valuable positions in the NFL will go a long way toward making a top draft class. Haskins got off to a rough start to his career with two shaky performances off the bench, but he rebounded with a 73.4 pro football focus grade, which ranked 12th among quarterbacks after he took over as a starter in week nine. About McLaurin, pro football focus wrote,

McLaren was a revelation in 2019. His 86.5 receiving grade not only led all rookie, wide receivers this season, but it was the highest mark since Odell Beckham Jr.'s in 2014 for rookie wide receivers. The Redskins draft of Haskins, Sweat, McLaren, Bryce Love who didn't play, Wes Martin, Ross Piercebocker, who really didn't play, Cole Holcomb, Kelvin Harmon, Jimmy Morland, and Jordan Brailford, who really didn't play, was, according to Pro Football Focuses rankings, the number one draft class of 2019. Now, with all of that understood, you do understand that they could go back two, three, four years from now and do a new ranking of the 2019 draft class, and it may not be

number one. You know, it may not be. I mean, that's the thing about this NFL draft. It is encouraging, don't get me wrong. It's very encouraging that the Redskins draft class produce the way it produced wherever it ended up being ranked. You know, we saw it. We saw that Terry McCorn looks like the real deal. We saw when Montez Sweat wasn't dropping into coverage that seven sacks for a rookie, you know, JJ Watt only had five and a half sacks as a rookie. Montez Sweat ended up with seven sacks in his rookie season.

And think about that because for much of the season, what did we all think? We thought, ooh, he does not look good. He ended up with seven sacks. Some of those came late, and he looked. much better late, especially when they stopped dropping him into coverage. And he got more comfortable, you know. I mean, it was a new position for him as sort of a stand-up outside linebacker and a three-four. You know, Haskins, sweat, McLorn.

Martin played, you know, showed promise. Holcomb clearly showed some promise. Harmon, the same thing. And Jimmy Morland, you know, had his ups and downs. I mean, we thought, you know, early in training camp, if you recall last year, I think a lot of us thought that Jimmy Morland might be the steal of the draft. But drafts really can't be truly evaluated, I don't think, until three years after the draft. You've got to have three full seasons to really get a sense of whether or not the draft was a good one.

It's encouraging. It's an encouraging start compared, according to pro football focus anyway, which I don't always put a lot of stock into. I think it's really hard to evaluate these players on each. individual play when you don't know what their responsibilities are on any given play. But at least based on this one measurement, the Redskins had the most successful rookie class of 2019. Let's see where it is three, four years down the road. Hopefully it still holds up.

I would be surprised if Terry McLaren doesn't end up developing into, you know, a true number one wide receiver. And as a number, you know, as a number 76 pick overall third round, not bad. I would be surprised personally if Cole Holcomb doesn't end up becoming a pretty influential and meaningful contributor to the Redskins defense. I like Kelvin Harmon, too. I liked him coming out. We don't know about sweat.

I had a lot of confidence in sweat. I saw, you know, flashes. I know what he was in college. What he was in college, if he turns out to be that in the NFL, it will be a great pick and a great trade to get into the first round. And of course, Haskins, we've got to see, you know, if he continues to progress at the rate that he did at the end of last year, which was encouraging. You know, that draft in 2018 when, you know, people, remember it was the 2018 draft where Bruce Allen was going around after that draft, basically, you know, shaking hands and allowing

people to pat himself on the back after they picked Payne, Geis, Christian, and, you know, had some a Bama player late and Sean Dionne Hamilton, and they hadn't played it down yet. I liked Duran Payne, but Darius Geis could turn out to be a disastrous pick in the second round because of his health. Christian doesn't look really at this point as a third rounder like he can play. I think Settle's got something to him. I think Apke's got something to him, and I've always liked Sean Dionne Hamilton. But, man, that was the draft, Aaron, right? Bruce Allen sort of did a circuit of allowing people to congratulate him on the 2018 draft.

which again, I wouldn't truly evaluate until 2021 or until after the 2020 season, which would be next year, where you can sort of look back at that draft. And next year we'll be a bit of a telling year for Darius Geis. Can he stay healthy or not? Also, real quickly, before we bring Scott Jackson in here, Mel Kuiper had his version 1 of the NFL draft, mock draft number 1 for Kuiper today. He's got Burrow 1. He's got Chase Young 2.

Now, I did not see this on Get Up with Mike Greenberg and company this morning, but a friend of mine texted me, and Kuiper did say that he does not think it's a slam dunk that the Bengals will take Burrow. He thinks Chase Young could still be in the conversation for the Bengals at number one. I can't imagine that the Bengals won't take a quarterback. I can't imagine them not taking Burrow. Yeah, I can't imagine them not taking Burrow. exactly. You know, if I told you right now that I could see the future and that on May 1st, we were talking about Tuatunga Viola going number one overall to Cincinnati, you couldn't say

that that's impossible because we don't know how he's going to be evaluated coming off that injury. Let's face it, last year, this time, he was the number one pick in this draft. By a long shot. You know, Tuatunga Viola was going to be the number one pick in the 20th, 2020 draft. Joe Burrow had a sensational year. He's going to be evaluated at a very high level, but so is Tonga Viola. You know, you may get into a situation where if he's healthy and they start working, he starts, you know, working out and people are watching tape and they think he's every bit of what Burrow is. It'll come down to sort of a preference thing. Maybe Cincinnati prefers Tua. I don't think that's out of the question that Tua ends up being the number one pick.

I mean, I wouldn't bet on it. I would bet on Burrow right now. But God, we see this. every year that between January and April, everything we think about the draft in January and February, so much of it changes when we get to draft night in late April, first round. What were you going to say? I was going to say, I do agree and I do think that you're going to start, at least. That is going to be a storyline, let's say, at the combine or in March, you know, there's always that little thing where it's like, oh, they are not 100% sold on Burrow. Right.

You always hear that even if they are 100%. And that's going to be the story we hear. I just think when all of a sudden done, burrow between how good he looked this year, between the fact that he's from Ohio, between the fact that he is the safe pick, I'd be just stunned if he didn't go first. All right, quick word about stamps.com.

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DC. That's stamps.com promo code Kevin DC. All right, let's bring in my good friend Scott Jackson from the team 980 and lots of different places to talk some NBA All-Star voting because I, look, I don't really care that much about this, but I did find it interesting that Bradley Beal among players was voted as the second best guard in the east. So for those that don't know, there's a 50% fan vote, there's a 25% player vote, and a 25% media vote. And that creates essentially the starting five, and then you get another five players, you know, based on the voting. And then you get the coaches picking the two, you know, alternates or reserves or whatever you want to call them.

I forget how it works. But Beale isn't in the top 10. He could get named to the team as one of the final two and probably will. But how about the disconnect, Scott, between Bradley Beal, his fan ranking, the ninth best guard in the east, and the player ranking, the players, his contemporaries, his peers, voting him as the second best guard in the east behind Kemble Walker. Yeah, I mean, I like it from that standpoint, because I think the players got it right. I mean, I think he is, he should be held up in that regard. But it is a little frustrating because you have this fan component.

And it's always been goofy. We had this in baseball for years, too, where you get these lineups, and it's like a nostalgia thing. But, you know, I mean, we're talking about Trey Young. So, like, I want to blame a lot of this on the fact that the wizards aren't very good, but yet it's not like Trey Young, you know, playing on, you know, the Atlanta Hawks, not playing on the box or the Celtics or somebody like that. So that's what kind of missed me a little bit about how the whole thing broke down.

And, you know, it also speaks to a bigger problem, I think, for Bradley Beal, why maybe he's getting a little antsy here in D.C., even though he said all the right things. You know, we had to blow up a few weeks ago on the athletic report where he's behind the scenes. He's not really happy with some of the things. He made his comments for the culture not improving up yet. You know, this is, I think the clock starts ticking in guys' heads a little bit,

and they want to see improvement. But, you know, this is kind of like the Wizards are so far off the radar when it comes to NBA basketball right now because they've kind of, you know, decided a punt on this season with John Wall out. And, you know, the East is so bad. They're going to mathematically be in it, I think, most of the year. but when you watch them, you know, some nights you see some stuff like, okay, that's pretty good. And the other nights you're like, what are they doing here?

You know, this is one of the worst defensive teams we've ever seen. You know, they'll compete a team like Cleveland. Obviously, they can play tough with Miami. But the inconsistencies are crazy. But I think this is just a bigger symptom of, you know, kind of like where the wizards are right now in the NBA radar, which is they're not really on it. Yeah, but you made the point. I think I made it earlier today. I think I did on radio is that, you know, Trey Young, I know Trey Young had a lot of sort of

attention coming in and had that incredible one season, you know, at Oklahoma. And he's, and he's really an exciting player to watch, but they're horrible. I mean, they are first-rate, you know, terrible. But I still, you know, so the Beale thing is just interesting. And I, and this is one of the reasons I wanted you on. So putting the All-Star stuff aside and putting the ranking by the players versus the fans and coaches aside. I think Bradley Bealbiel, is a really, really good player. And I think he's a lot better this year. And I think he's developed into a truly, you know, high-level NBA score.

But I don't think you win a title or even contend for one with Bradley Beale as your number one. What do you think? Well, they got to get a lot better all around him. And this is why, you know, I know a lot of people are like, no matter how John Wall looks, even though he's running five-on-five at a local, you know, gym in Miami with other NBA players or former NBA players, people are like you shouldn't play them at all this year. Or I kind of go the other way. I think as soon as he's medically ready, you go and let him,

we've got to find out whether or not these two guys can still play together or how it's going to look. Is it look any better before as John progressed in terms of the rest of his game? We'll compliment Bradley better and vice versa. I mean, you've got to find that out. But yeah, I mean, there's no way the way the roster is constructed now that they're going to win a championship. I mean, they've got to add pieces.

This has never been a destination city for free agents, as we know. This isn't exactly on paper, at least, right now a great year to be the lottery team, you know, that wins. I don't know if it really brings you the big bang for your buck, you know. There's those Dionne Williamson in this draft or, you know, even Tom Morant. So I know this is the tough thing is for the Wizards and they're kind of, you know, you know, if they don't make it and they get a lottery to get lucky. I don't know really what that's going to bring you back.

But anyway, yeah, I mean, yeah, he's not going to be your number one guy most likely to win a championship. I think you've got to have other pieces around him, you know, unless he suddenly becomes Kauai Leonard and, you know, that everybody can playoff. am. But, you know, the way we've seen is constructed at this point. Yeah, I mean, I think that he needs more help. Why do you want to see Wall now? What do you want to learn? Do you want to learn something so that the off-season plan after this season, you know, starts rather than waiting until 2021, where you've figured out what Wall is?

Yeah, yeah. I think you need to find out as soon as possible. So what would you do if you find out he can't play? Then you're basically where you knew you were in the first place, you know. They know they're in a tough spot with his contract. There's no question about it. You've got to find out, you know, maybe you build up an actual situation where you can build up a market for, but you're right. I mean, there is always the fear that he doesn't play well. Then I guess you can sign it off on, you know, shut him off, shut him down quickly and say, all right, we'll just wait until next year.

But look, if he's out running in these games where there's no wizard's attendance in the trainers nearby, I've got to think he's ready to play, right? I mean, you don't just say, I'm going to go play at the local gym with a bunch of former players. like he did the other day and the team not have somebody standing by unless you are really ready to play basketball. So that's my feeling there. If he's allowed to play away from the team in these three-on-three-structured deals,

then he's ready. I mean, you know, it's just a matter to get his win back and all that stuff. I, you know, I had to hope to think, and I've heard that he's worked on his game and we're going to be amazed at what we see in terms of his jumper all the stuff. But again, until you actually see in the game, who knows, if that's all true or not. We've seen John shoot the ball well

in his career at times, but it's just never been consistent. Yeah, I mean, you're actually bringing up something that I really, I guess in part, because for the first time in several years, I'm not paying nearly as close attention to the team. Why would I be? Right. They're not even, I mean, where are we? They went last night to go to 15 and 29, so that's 44 games. So they're actually just over the halfway mark of the season. If he's playing five-on-five pickup and he's getting close to returning, you know, we're not in March. We've got, We got the rest of this month. We got all of February, all of March, and most of April, why wouldn't you play him?

Unless you're really, really concerned that he's never going to be what he is, and you might think that rather than see him and try to deal him, maybe it's better if people don't see him, we try to get something for him. But with that contract, you're never going to be able to deal him. Yeah, you're never going to be able to deal, especially if he's never been back on the court with that contract. I mean, they were hoping to get the medical exemption this year. They didn't get some of that cap space. Right.

You know, that's why I also feel like if he was ever going to be clear this year, you might as well go ahead and get him out there because you're not getting any benefit from him not playing this year. And unless, again, you just feel like, well, the draft positioning is so important to you. But I don't know. Maybe I'm missing something here, but it just doesn't seem like one of those drafts where, you know, there's a huge difference being, you know, I don't know, like four or five spots or whatever to end up being lower. and they're not the worst team, obviously, by far. So I don't know if they're going to win the lottery anyway.

But, you know, again, I just think you've got to get those guys back together because whether we like it or not, that might still be where we are, right? I mean, that still may be the team down, you know, at least for the next few years, until Bradley ever either decide you just completely had enough and asked to get out or they decide, all right, we're just not going anywhere with it. We've got to go Bradley, and then we'll just try to figure out something with John with this contract or do you start, you know, bringing in young parts around John and just kind of let that thing, you know,

you know, the life of it peak out. But, I mean, that's kind of where they are. I mean, there's, again, at a tough spot. Never been a, never been a destination city for free agents either. And that's why they've got to nail it in the draft and, you know, be creative and make it a real, you know, make it a championship kind of team. It's going to be hard to do. Yeah, you know, I think you're probably right in that, you know, first of all,

the NBA tends to be an older player league in terms of the teams that win. And you get guys in their, you know, late 20s, early 30s. in theory, Bradley Beals just entering his prime at 26 years old. John Wall at 28, 29, whatever he is, depending on, you know, how he comes back from this injury, especially given the way he plays, would still, if he's completely healthy, and he still has his speed and his athleticism, is technically in his prime right now for at least another couple of years minimum, that would be probably your best way to, you know, get back to where you were briefly, which is a team that was a playoff kind of a team that could

potentially win a series or two, not contend for a title legitimately, but, you know, play, you know, two, three weeks in the postseason. Yeah, and you've got to build on the guys around to me to hope, you know, Ruy ends up being who you thought he was if you drafted him, you know, unfortunately he's missed a lot of the season. Troy Brown Jr., I think he's shown a lot of progress this year, although Scott Brooks refuses to start him for some reason. anyway, he's got all that going on.

You know, and they've got some other young pieces that are interesting. Thomas Bryant here has kind of been derail with injury, and then you've had this weird, Jan Mahimi sees that that happen to the final year in contract, and who knows, maybe you can flip him into something, maybe Isaiah as well for the trade deadlines, you know, those guys really in the big picture they don't fit in what you're trying to do down the road.

Yeah. All right. So you watch a lot of college basketball, so do I. And I'm into Maryland season right now. You're into Old Dominion season. How are they doing? I don't even know what – I don't even know what league. What league are they in?

We're in Conference USA, Kevin. Come on. I mean, who doesn't know about Comprehance USA? Not too good. I did two games. They were actually playing pretty well. I went down there and did two games for them this year. I swear to God, the only one like two games since I did that.

So like they were kind of giving me a bunch of crap about it. Like I was a cooler. But they've had two trains. transfers. Last night, I think they lost one of their best players to season, although I don't think it's official yet. So it's been horrible. And I do a VCU as well. VCU's been good, although they've been a little bit underperforming to the preseason hype, but I think there'll be a tournament team. The 8-10s actually really good, unlike COPS USA, the 8-10s real deep. How's Jeff Jones doing health-wise?

Jeff's doing good. I like going down there and talking to Jeff, because usually it's a lot of national talk. He's very invested in the Nats. He's big-time baseball guys, you know. And he was also a P1-980 listener for many, many years. Many years. Many years. And it's always good talking to Jeff. He's a hell of a coach.

He won his 500th game, career game this year. Honestly, the fact that they're even in these games and losing late or having a chance to win late is a testament to the kind of exes and those coach he is, they just don't have the horses right now. And it's been a rough year for them, but I wouldn't be surprised if they had a chance to win that conference they win the tournament because it's a one-bit league every year. Well, I mean, they were in it last year.

You know, he was in the tournament last year, and I think they played Purdue, because I think that was basically the one game that Carson Edwards was held below 50. In the tournament, I think he, I don't remember what he had. But, you know, it's a big weekend for the Terps coming up. You know, Indiana last night beat Michigan State at home. The Big Ten is, I mean, loaded, top to bottom. I don't know if it's got a national champion. although, you know, we know what Izzo does, you know, just when you think that Michigan State may not make a run,

they're in the final four like they were last year. And, you know, the comeback against Northwestern the other night was actually big. I think it had to be big for Turgeon. But this is like a, you know, every night's big, but Maryland at Indiana, that's the one place they haven't won since entering the Big Ten. Big game for them on Sunday. I heard you say that the other day. That's amazing. But, you know, as you see this year, There are very few road wins around the country, excuse me. And if you can get a few of them in the conference on the season, and obviously just hold serve at home, you know, you're going to have a really good season. But I watch a lot of different games, and I like to start thinking I like a certain team,

and then I'm like, and I don't really like that anymore. It's just nobody that you fall in love with this year, and that's obviously why it's been to topsy-turvy number one. And, you know, we haven't had like that great team. You know, it's probably going to make for one of the more interesting, you know, March Madnesses we've seen in a while. and it's probably why your office secretary will end up winning the bracket bowl at your place as well.

Well, they usually do anyway. I mean, even with dominant teams. But yeah, I don't, like I was thinking, Ohio State lost last night at home to Minnesota. Ohio State a month and a half ago was the number two team in the country. They're two and six in the Big Ten. You know, Michigan went from being unranked to top five. They're two and five in the Big Ten. It's really hard to figure out.

You're right. And this is the time of year where you think Gonzaga is good, but you really don't know. And you look at a couple of the non-conference wins that Gonzaga had, one of which was over North Carolina, which looked good in the moment. It really doesn't look very good now. By the way, just as an aside, I mean, North Carolina is having an all-time Matt Doherty-style season for them. They've lost six straight ACC games first time ever that's happened in program history. they're reeling right now. And I don't know, I mean, Cole Anthony would have made a difference had he been healthy, but they stink. Yeah, and you know, I was looking the other day at all the All-American, the

McDonald's All-American, you know, finalists and all that stuff that was coming out. And there were a lot of Carolina kids on there, and those kids are going to get to play right away. Yeah. Because this team doesn't have a whole lot coming back. So, I mean, yeah, there's going to be opportunities for those guys, like, immediately next year. it's amazing i think there i think i saw there were four four guys committed to carolina in the in the mcdonald's game and um yeah they they're able to reload pretty quickly um but anyway all right it's been a terrible year i mean if it wasn't roy williams there you would hear a lot more noise about it but i think they'll i think they'll be a lot better next season

this has been a humbling year for them for sure yeah exactly all right uh thanks for doing this i'll talk to you soon all right take care kevin thanks always good to catch up uh with Jackson. And he's been working a lot of games, doing a lot of college games, doing a lot of high school games, doing a great job there. Quick word about mybooky.ag. Looking to bet some college hoops this weekend, mybooky.ag is reliable. They've got the fastest payouts, best promotions, helpful customer service team, plenty of ways to bet. Straight bets, teasers, parlays, in-game action, all great odds, great point spreads.

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All right, let's bring in a guest. Eric Zimni is the vice president of the racing and sports book for not only the Hollywood Casino in Charlestown, but a lot of the properties that are owned by the group. And he's really good at helping us sort of figure out where the line is, where it's going, and we're a week away from a lot of the activity and obviously now nine days away from the game. I wanted to start with this, Eric.

Were you surprised, like when I started thinking about the different Super Bowl point spread possibilities before the championship games, I actually really thought that the 49ers were going to be a favorite over anybody. How much did the Mahomes and the Chiefs offensive firepower in those two playoff games sort of turn the tables on that? Yeah, I think it factored in big time. especially with something like the national championship game in the rearview mirror where you had everyone analyzing the game.

And there's one team that's got the better defense, maybe actually one to 50, better personnel, and the other team's got the dynamite quarterback and three, four, five weapons that are just kind of unstoppable. And you saw what happened after 60 minutes there. You know, I think it took a similar tone with this game, and we're kind of seeing the money play out that. that way even further since we opened the game at one. Don't you think, though, college football is different in that you can, more times than not,

you get the offensive team trumping the defensive team, whereas in the NFL over a long period of time, defense more often than not can shut down great offense, where it just doesn't seem to happen as much in college football? It can, just because, you know, there's a larger, I guess, disparity in terms of talent. college teams. I mean, you know, everybody on a pro roster is going to be a pretty good player. And so, yeah, I would agree with that. I also do think in this day and age of football and kind of the way it's played that I don't want to say that's how it used to be, but, you know, it just seems like we're going more and more in an offensive world. And if you look at the way the point

totals reacted in this game, it seems like the public thinks, you know, along similar lines. I mean, we opened it at 51.5. And across our network, literally 100. 100% of the money was on the over. Literally 100% and it was not an immaterial amount of money. And right now it's at 54, and we still have 85% of the money on the over right now at that number. I could see it going a little bit further, but how much further? I don't know. You know, 54 seems like it's a pretty square number for this game.

Sounds like for a contrarian like me, it sounds like an underplay in the Super Bowl. You know, it's funny because, and I want to get into the numbers in the numbers in the Super Bowl next week in more detail here shortly. But I think I've told you in some of the times that you've been on the radio show, I've been doing this segment for 14 years that I call the smell test, where basically it's just a contrarian handicapping philosophy. On Fridays each week, I basically try to find the biggest public plays and just go opposite. I mean, there's a little bit more to it, but that's essentially been the theory.

and for 14, you know, coming into this year, they'd been 13 years, you know, I had had 10 solid seasons of, you know, 55, 56, you know, between 55 and 60 percent, 55, 59 percent winners, and just three losing seasons, and they were barely losing seasons. Eric, I got crushed this year. Early in the season, I was 26 games above 500 in like early October. And the rest of the year, at least from my perspective, really felt like a public. year. Did it work out that way for you? Book actually did okay this year. So no, I mean, for us, it wasn't as public of a year as it might have been otherwise. I think this game, though, is certainly going to be a public game. And I go back and I'm not, you know, don't mean, the national championship game. I mean, I haven't seen a bigger public versus square, you know, public versus sharp game than that one. I mean, we had so much public money

on LSU and the Sharps kept steaming the line back down on Clemson. And we got beat really bad on that game. That was the one game I would say that we got hit hard on. But no, pros were good to us this year. Yeah, a lot of it was. It turned out to be college, and I was on Clemson for the limit in that game. And I'll probably be on the under. It's funny about the NFL playoffs, the three weekends.

I mean, you had in that wild card weekend, you basically had, I think, four unders. And then in the divisional round, the first two games, the Minnesota game and the Baltimore game were under. And we've had, since then, we've had four straight overs with, you know, a lot of public action, as you mentioned on the over in the Super Bowl. It seems like you can't make a line high enough. What else stood out from the first couple of weekends of the NFL playoffs? I mean, to me, Casey's explosiveness was just, you know, I can't imagine how don't know that there is or isn't. There's been another team in playoff history that's been down by 20 plus points and came back to win by 20 or more points in the game. I mean, it's absurd

when you see the swings in their games and they're never out of the game at all. That really stood out to me. But going back to the other side of it, you know, we're talking about passing being the kind of the wave of the future president in football and teams turning into passing offenses. I mean, just look at what the Titans did in the first three games. I mean, they they won games with, no two games at least, with a guy who was running the ball and really was unstoppable for those first two. I mean, he was unbelievable.

And then, you know, go-finding the last time a team won a conference championship game with the quarterback throwing the ball eight times. I mean, that doesn't happen either. I mean, they really bludgeon Green Bay with that running attack. And I would imagine you're going to see a lot of that transfer over to next

weekend, too, because I mean, look, it's trite, it's cliche, but the best way to make sure Mahomes doesn't score to keep him off the field and that running attack for San France dynamite. But kind of the resurgence of the running game and teams doing it the old-fashioned way a little bit, that kind of stood out to me the last few weeks. So Kansas City is right now pretty much one across the board. I think there's some one-and-a-halfs out there.

You can tell me whether there are 54. You mentioned the totals up from the open. I would imagine at this point, given the impression that Mahomes and that Kansas City offense gave to everybody watching for the first two games that there's at least a public lean, if not a heavy public play on Kansas City laying the point. Yeah, you know, I haven't gone down to our book today, so I don't know if we're still at one and a half, but we've been at one and a half for a little bit.

We've still taken 70, 71 percent of the action at one and a half still on Kansas City. So the public is certainly leaning that way with the number. It's ironic right now. I mean, our biggest play here at Charlestown or anywhere to the network, we took $186,000 on the Niners on the money line at plus 107, and that's the largest play we've gotten at all. So as I look at it now, the money is skewed to the Niners as far as winning the game outright. That's going to change by game time, I'm sure.

We may be in a weird situation, though, where a Casey one-point win is like the bonanza for us. Right because of that money-line play. Yeah, exactly. And then we'll beat the public on the one and a half, which is our number right now, when the money line plays. So it just doesn't get the feeling like this is going to be a one-point game, though, does it? No, it doesn't. Where do you think the number stays put?

I mean, with 70% of the tickets coming in on Kansas City, even if your money volume is a little bit closer to even, do you see moving the number at all? Do you see the number moving anywhere? And if so, which direction? Well, you know, look, it's one and a half versus two a huge difference. Probably not. To me, one and a half is probably where it's going to settle. I'm not stunned if you see some late sharp Niners money, to be honest, just because, and that's just anecdotally from what I've heard. You know, some folks who I respect, certainly

that seems to be the side they lean to in this game. I can see that. I go north of one and a half, I would doubt it. How high do you think the total goes? Do you think it goes higher from 50, I told someone it's like Doreen that was like Patriots Dolphins games last year like I was told like you can't put the line at like 30 you know even though you reasonably know

that one team is demonstrously better than another so I mean how high can you really go with the total in this game knowing that one team has the potential to throw the ball you know 15 times at most in the game I don't know if it's going to go much higher may you see it creep up

a point or two maybe I don't think you're going to get something like 57 though I mean I think that anywhere 54, 55, maybe 56. I'm shocked if it goes higher than that. You know, I'm trying to think, I know the total for that New England Atlanta Super Bowl three years ago now was, I think it approached 59. Correct me if I'm wrong. I think that was the highest total we've ever had. I don't think we've ever seen a 60 for a Super Bowl, but we've been higher than 54 before. I know that game was, and you might remind me of another game. Well, last year's game was certainly a mid-50s total game that ended up, you know, ridiculously 13 to 3.

Nobody had that. It was. I believe that Patriots Falcons game was the highest total ever, and I don't think it went over until overtime, actually. Right. That's what put it over. Yeah, last year was in the mid-50s. We all saw what happened there. Last year was kind of an anomaly.

That was one of the uglier games you'll ever see. But, yeah, we have seen higher than 54. With the way the Niners put pressure on the QBA, play defense, and run the ball, I mean, it just feels like they're going to have to try and shorten the game to win it. And 54, to me, like I said, I feel like that's a pretty good number. It might float up, but I don't know. You know what's interesting about that Tennessee-Kansas City game is that Tennessee's first half was textbook, right? They possess the ball two-to-one advantage.

They had it for 19 and a half minutes to 10 and a half. They ran the ball. They scored on every possession but one. And they're down 2117 at halftime, which is really, you know, you mentioned it. And I think a lot of the general football fan population, you know, and I know we get caught up in this, you know, wanting to think that we're watching something totally unique, sort of the, the recency thing. But seriously, when it comes to Mahomes, I don't know that we've ever seen anything like what he did for two consecutive weeks. Look, in that first half of that AFC championship game, the Titans, I felt like, could not have played better football. Exactly.

And they were down four points at halftime. I agree with you. I mean, his performance, the last two weeks is unbelievable. You know, after he got hurt the season, and he looked like a different quarterback for a few weeks, I feel like now that he's kind of rounding back into some semblance of health. I don't know anybody's fully healthy at this time of year anyway, but he looks like he's using his legs and his feet a lot more. That's why I think the Niners in this game. I mean, I know their pass rush is good,

but I feel like they've got to try to keep this guy in the pocket to some degree because that's what he's at his best when he's flushed out on the run, improvising, you know, throwing his no-look passes across the field that, you know, you just don't see anyone else do. I'm sure the Niners' defensive staffs had a lot of sleepless nights watching tape at the last two weeks, and it'll be interesting to see what kind of attack the employee. I'm not only him, but he got Kelsey and Hill and Hardman

and offense is loaded. Yeah, I don't know. I mean, I talked a lot about it on the podcast and the radio show this week. I don't know that we've ever seen a better extend the play off-schedual quarterback. I mean, we've seen so many good ones in recent years. Wilson, obviously, Rogers, Lamar Jackson, but never a guy that extends it for as long as he does and then with a flick of the wrist can throw it 60, 65 yards accurately. He's really, really interesting.

And I think this whole elite quarterback versus great defense thing is fascinating. It's always been in the NFL. I was telling somebody the other day, I think we did it on the podcast, Aaron. You know, Dan Marino in 1984 shattered every passing record imaginable. And not that the two styles of play Mahomes and Marino are close. They're not at all. But the way we thought about Dan Marino in 84 and the numbers that he put up is a similar way in which a lot of people are thinking about Mahomes. And Marino went to that Super Bowl that

that year and got completely shut down by a very good 49er defense in that Super Bowl, Super Bowl 18, I think it was, or 19. And I don't know, but it's hard to envision after watching Mahomes the last two weeks, anybody completely shutting him down. Yeah, and at the same time, not completely showing them down. I mean, that Niners team had a good D back then. I mean, they also had the advantage of having a real Yeah, and so you're going to get in a position here where do you think the Niners could possibly outscore them if they had to? And maybe they can. I mean, Groblo, I know he only threw the ball eight times,

but look, he's been steady. He's not the ball eight times, but he's not an issue back there. He's not a liability by any means. I mean, when they traded for Sanders, the offense got a little more dynamic. We actually have a couple futures on Debo, Samuel, to an MVP of the game. I mean, he's been a rookie. He's been a fine. And, you know, they're going to have to score points, though.

You're right. I see this being a Giants Bill Super Bowl where the Niners, you know, are able to hold the ball for 41 minutes and hold this off to like 19 points. I don't see it. Yeah, I mean, you know, the Otis Anderson in that game and that offense was really incredible. And lots of times you just need what, you know, essentially what Houston got early in that game, which is a couple of drop balls, a couple of deflected balls, you know, and a couple of breaks to, to just get them off the field. It's almost like you have to get a break

to get that Kansas City team off the field. We're talking to Eric Zimni. Eric is the vice president of racing and sports book for Hollywood Casino in Charlestown and all of the sports books and casinos and race books that they own. Did anybody, just out of curiosity, is there any sort of big decision on somebody playing an AFC,

NFC, Super Bowl point spread a month? ago that has a huge advantage here? No, no huge advantage on that. I can tell you, though, we have a pretty large network-wide liability on the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl, and one of our properties in Council of West Iowa.

That's kind of Chiefs Country, and they're all Chiefs fans there. What was the money line at that point? God, I mean, when the home got the thing is, it varied so much throughout the year because after Mahomes got hurt, they might have been 12 to 1 because, I mean, the guy had a dislocated kneecap,

and they were, they were, you know, taken on water there. I want to say 8 to 1 was what a lot of the action is at, and that was from a little bit earlier in the year, too. But, I mean, a lot of that's recreational money. A lot of that's recreational money. But you got a big play in Council Bluffs. That's hysterical. What was San Francisco to start the year?

I've no idea what they were. God, I don't have the top of my head. I mean, if I had to guess, would you put them in, like, the plus 4,000 range? Yeah, right. I mean, they would happen, I would think. We don't have, as you can imagine, since there are plus 4,000, we don't have a lot of liability on them at all. So, yeah, there's nothing there that's going to stand out.

I know we're talking about props. Yeah, I was going to ask you about props. Go ahead. Yeah, no, what interested. We had someone come in, I believe it was a $900 bet on with Sean McCoy to score at least two touchdowns on Sunday at odds of 80 to 1. So I don't know if this person just doesn't like money or what the, he was active last week, was he?

I don't think he was active. Oh, you're saying for the championship game, not the Super Bowl. So somebody came in and put that much on LaShawn McCoy to score two touchdowns. Look, for the Super Bowl, knowing that I don't believe he's been active for the last couple. Oh, right. Okay, so it was for the Super Bowl. Yeah, well, maybe this person knows that he's going to be active. I don't know.

It's not like they needed him. No, they don't. They don't. Williams pretty good. I mean, look, they're pretty good. They score points. If LaShaul McCoy is scoring two touchdowns, I would think the Niners are in for an incredibly long day.

What's the most interesting prop bet on the board? I mean, give me a couple that you think are going to really interest bettors. You know, it sounds, again, it's the coin toss just has intrigue because of, it's the coin toss, and it's quick action, and it's, you know, you're betting on somebody flipping a coin, and it's, it's, you know, I would anticipate across the network, we'll probably get a five-digit amount on just people bet in the coin toss. Recreational, it's kind of fun, and people gravitate towards it. That's crazy.

I would think a lot of the Mahomes numbers are going to be heavily bet, the over-under-earned yardage touchdowns, you know, etc. But anyway, you know, I did want to ask you, so I'm a big college basketball better. Aaron and I sit here and we just, we look at the numbers every day. Is college basketball a heavily bet before March or not? It is. And as you can imagine with college basketball, the thing that makes it tricky are just, there's so many options. And look, I mean, it's hard to sharpen lines on, you know,

Dartmouth playing Brown on Friday night. Yeah. And, you know, you have people who specialize in those markets. So you do take money. it's really a lot of you can take a lot of sharp honey in college basketball during the season now just because of that. But come March, we'll have more people in the book for the first two rounds of the tournament than we will on Sunday next weekend.

Yeah, I mean, that first weekend of the NCAA tournament, being in the sportsbook in Vegas was always quite the weekend for a lot of friends of mine and myself for many years. And I know your sportsbook, Hollywood Casinos, for those listening that haven't been up there, it is a great sports book. Great place to watch a Super Bowl. Great place to go up there to watch, you know, college hoops and the NBA over the weekends, you know, in March, in January, February, and certainly in March as well.

You know, it's interesting that you said that about college basketball, that, you know, there are a lot of sharps. I think it's one of those things you see in college hoops that that home court advantage in these conference games really, you know, how many times you get an unranked team at home getting a really short, number against a ranked team, you know, coming in, and the public just is all over the ranked team, you know, laying a short number, thinking that Vegas is somehow aired in the point spread, you know?

Yeah, exactly. It's true. And, I mean, look, there's a lot of guys out there now with some pretty good systems and models for obscure college basketball games. And, I mean, when you don't get a volume of action on games, I mean, you know, from these, you know, the big South conference or whatever, you just pick one randomly. I mean, you don't get a large life of action on those games. It's hard to know customer tendencies, and when you finally kind of figured out,

that's after someone's come in and thrown a, you know, $25,000 play on the over in the Winthrop game. And, you know, like looking at the walls, like, what the heck just happened? Well, what do you do when that happens? When somebody comes in, let's say, tomorrow, okay? And they've got the over in the, you know, in the Winthrop, you know, Radford game, Gardner Web game. What do you do? Do you have a limit on those games?

It depends on the profile, the game. There's not really an explicitly stated limit. Frankly, we usually take the money. And we've done that, and our hold last year was still about 9% despite us getting taken for all that money on the World Series. So the

approaches were pretty well. I mean, we have good confidence in our numbers, but I'm not saying there isn't a situation where we would limit a game based on just the overall profile of it, but it's going to be a more obscure game versus a highly liquid market. We're not going to do that on a UNC Duke game. You know, there is that built-in advantage called the Vig, which puts you in position to, sure, just take it.

Ultimately, it'll work out. But it is funny about college basketball, and I can't tell you how many nights, you know, in mid-January, I've been sitting there and, you know, all of a sudden there's like, you know, Towson against William and Mary, and William and Mary's got undefeated in league play, and they're only laying two on the road against one of the worst teams. And the contrarian in me has always said,

good God, I'm on Towson for the limit. And sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. It's called gambling for a reason. There's no true theory or system that really works consistently. Wouldn't that be your advice to anybody that's trying to delve into the world of gambling for the first time? I think the percentage of players who are truly sharp and over the long haul are winning players is incredibly, incredibly minute. You can go on runs, but people tend to regress to the mean.

And I'm not saying there aren't guys and our players who win over the long haul. There certainly are. But, yeah, there's no one-size-fits-all infallible system. If anyway, if you've got one or know someone who's got one, please let me know because I will quit my job and play it right away. I always enjoyed talking to you. Thank you so much, Eric. Appreciate it. We'll talk soon. Absolutely, Kevin. Thanks for having me.

I like Eric a lot. Good guest. Really good information. Big sports fan, obviously. And that's big responsibility when you're running a lot of different sports books. But you know what? Aaron, it's better to be on his side than on the side we're on. Yes. His side pretty much guaranteed lock to win. I do think it's funny, you know, that one of his, his big, exposures right now is from their sports book in Council Bluffs, Iowa. Real quickly before we run for the day. Big game Sunday for Maryland at Indiana.

I love that Indiana won that game last night, Aaron, and they've got sort of a short turnaround before the game on Sunday. Maryland's got all the rest. Maryland's never gone into Indiana and won. They've never been in Bloomington as a Big Ten member. They won as an ACC member at Indiana at Assembly Hall. That's only two or three trips, I think. For whatever reason, they haven't visited Indiana all that off.

Is it only two or three? Well, this is only year five, right, in the league. 2015, 16, 17, 18, 19. Yeah. Yeah. Right? It was 14, 50, oh, it's year six. No, I think you're right.

I think it's year six in the Big Ten. It's a big weekend for college basketball. I'm not going to watch the Pro Bowl. I'm not even going to talk about the Pro Bowl. But in the Big Ten alone, tonight, Wisconsin at Purdue, tomorrow, Illinois at Michigan. And then Sunday, Maryland at Indiana and Michigan State, Minnesota. And how about this? Ohio State was the number two team in the country a month and a half ago.

And right now, they are really, I mean, they have lost six of their last seven games. They're not ranked anymore. They have Northwestern this weekend on the road. That is, when I saw them in December, destroy Villanova, November, December, then destroy Carolina. We didn't know what Carolina was. They destroyed Penn State. a good Penn State team. I thought, wow, this team is so good defensively, they got a chance to win the whole thing. And they're now 12 and 7, 2 and 6 in league play. Really strange year in college basketball for sure. But that's a big weekend for college hoops this weekend and a big one for Maryland on Sunday at 1. That's it, right? I'm not forgetting anything. I mean, what are we going

to say about Antonio Brown? He got arrested. I mean, we told you. We told you in August, as all of you knew, that the dude was troubled and needed help. Apparently, his ex-wife says he's not going to see his kids until he gets mental therapy and help. And it's the same thing that Drew Rosenhaus said about him. Ed Orgeron, by the way, just signed a big six-year extension through 2026 to stay as LSU's head coach. That was obvious. Remember when he got the gig? Not every LSU fan was happy about that. now as a national champion, they don't want them to leave. All right, thanks to Scott Jackson.

Thanks to Eric Zimni, the VP of Race and Sportsbook at Charlestown, Hollywood Casino. Thanks to Aaron, thanks to all of you. Have a great weekend back on Monday.